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CNBC's "Fast Money"
All The Semi Swings… And The Pulse Of The Retail Trader
00:40:42
Chip stocks in focus, as the SOXX Semi ETF snaps its historic win streak, but it’s not stopping the single stock moves. How Intel, Nvidia, and the memory makers are surging to fresh records, and how the Fast Money traders are positioning in the semi trade. Plus the latest energy moves in one oil services ETF, why Domino’s Pizza failed to deliver, and the latest read on the Retail trader. The CEO of one online trading platform joins us to lay out how his company is leveraging the AI surge to help investment strategies. Fast Money Disclaimer
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- [00:00]
Podcast Host
This episode is brought to you by Extra Credit, TransUnion's financial services podcast. Each episode features subject matter experts who discuss topics that matter most to today's industry leaders. From fraud trends to the state of consumer credit and plenty in between. Extra Credit was created as a way to share unique perspectives, industry happenings and data backed insights to help leaders like you adapt to changes in this unpredictable market. Come have a listen@transunion.com extra credit pod that's transunion.com extra credit podcast.
- [00:30]
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- [01:02]
Melissa Lee
Live in the NASDAQ marketsite in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Unstoppable intel, the semi giant hitting another all time high today. It's now nearly doubled in just the past month. Can the run continue and what chip name would be the traders bet on now? Let's break down the action and reading the pulse of the retail trader with markets new records but volatility still high. We'll find out how investors are positioning themselves now and what it says about stocks now. Next move plus the Oih trading near 8 year highs, Domino's fails to deliver on time and a downgrade for G for Nova. Why one analyst says the red hot energy play might have gotten ahead of itself. I'm Melissa Lee coming to you live from studio Be at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Steve Grasso, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami. We start off with all the moves in chip makers today. The stock semi ETF I should say index taking a breather after 18 straight days of gains, ending its longest ever winning streak thanks in large part to Marvell, AMD and Broadcom. But it is still pacing for its best month on record, up 37% so far in April, 24 of the index's 30 stocks have hit 52 week highs or better in the past week and that includes intel which closed at a record again today. Those shares have nearly doubled just this month and in the two days since its earnings report on Thursday, the longtime laggard has soared 30% in video by the way. Also closing at records. It has gained almost $1 trillion in market value this month alone. Is now solidly back above the 5 trillion doll memory makers. Also surging led by Micron and Sandisk. Those names ripping to fresh highs after Melius Research initiated both of the buy ratings citing high demand through the end of the decade. So what should we make of these staggering moves? Higher can they continue? Which would you continue to bet on them? Guy?
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Guy Adami
Momentum is a powerful thing and I would have said sell Intel $30 going. I probably did. So here we are at all time highs trading it. I don't know if you want to be generous. 80 times this year's numbers. Now you can say, you know what Guy, they're going to have 45% EPS growth. Yeah, that's true. But less than 10% revenue growth margins. Okay. You're making the bet that they're able to sort of transition from the CPU side of things to the GPU side of things or vice versa. And I think that's what the market is saying. And they're also saying, you know what, we're not going to make the same mistake in intel that we made with Micron and SanDisk. Understanding it's entirely different betting on momentum to continue. But you're in the deep end of the pool here for sure.
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Melissa Lee
Yeah, you're skeptical too. Last week I was.
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Steve Grasso
I remain skeptical. I mean what we're involved in is a full on mania. I mean make no mistake about it. And there's a lot of money to be made in a mania. And you know, you hear that term bubble all the time. This is a bubble. If it's a mania, it's a bubble and you know at some point it's going to burst and you know, you ride it. You know, they say, you know, let your profits run and take your losses kind of quickly. And if you keep doing that, you keep raising stops. Even if it's just a mental sort of thing. There's a lot of money that has been made. I just don't know when you have a parabolic move like that based on fundamentals that we're pretty well aware of, you know, and Guy was just talking about Intel. I mean, you know, this is a company that is expected to earn one. I don't $1.10 this year and last time it was trading above 70 was in 2021 when it had $5.50 in earnings. You know, and just when you think about that, it's pretty astounding then you go over to Nvidia which was the clear winner over the last three and a half years or so. It was in the doghouse for about seven months or so and all of a sudden it's gained one and a half trillion dollars in a month. I mean so again you know like Guy just used the term pool. I think it's a bit more dangerous than that. I think it's like diving into the shallow end of the pool right now.
- [04:37]
Tim Seymour
So I so that very dangerous, very dangerous.
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Steve Grasso
Don't do that at home. Don't try to jump through maybe like one of those like donuts or anything like that.
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Tim Seymour
So. So guys, I agree with both, both of them. Guy started off selling saying that he would have sold it 30 points ago. I sold it 45 points ago, thought I did well and I did do well. It was a double. I would never saw it running like this. This has been a confluence of events. This is a storied stock from the government. This is a whole semi run and I think it should be over. Dan talked about a lot of the fundamental reasons why it's over but just look at 18 straight days. You don't have to get that much in the weeds here to think I don't want to buy a stock that's in a group that's been up for almost 20 days. I would say take profits.
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Melissa Lee
There seems to be though a willingness or desire on the part of the markets to look at some of the chip makers that didn't necessarily play in the air trade before and want to believe that there is a role for them in the AI trade. Intel with the CPO's. We saw it with Texas Instruments too. They had a small data center business and in the past earnings report they said oh data business center business is growing and that stock got bit higher too. So it's sort of interesting that you want to look for the other ones aside from the memory ones and the ones that we saw participate.
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Dan Nathan
Yeah so. And as these guys are pointing out it's not like you're just looking at intel though. I mean so, so this is, this is not early in a wow, how intel trade. This is holy. You know what, but here's let me fight Intel's corner for a second. I don't own it and, and you know you want me to at least fight the corner of Intel. I'll say server CPU demand is clear and this is part of the rotation. There's a CPU renaissance as evercourse note course and again the, the ratio evercore will say went from 8 to 1 GPU to CPU. It's going the other way around. You know what other analysts on the street are also saying that intel actually has clean capacity room where a Taiwan semi is running into capacity constraints. There are other just dynamics in terms of really it's a lot of this will depend on their manufacturing and their, essentially the profitability and the manufacturing process. That which they can control and that which they can't. But again one of the arguments around intel is, is this is a domestic story that produces its inputs here they're totally in control. In a world where it seems like a lot of these major players have, you know, self reliance, excuse me, don't have self reliance and are reliant on other people is what I'm really trying to say. I, I don't want to own it. I sold it at 45 bucks. I hate myself. But you know what? I've, I've, you know, it made sense at the time. And I do think that the demand in terms of AI still continues to show itself and that the memory names, that's what this is about.
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Melissa Lee
Yeah, I mean don't feel bad because the average price target on the street is well below where it's trading right now. I mean I think it's like 60 or something like that. Barclays has raised its price target today to 65 which is still 20 bucks below. So nobody thought this was coming anytime soon, if at all. But with that said, this is almost a double in the past month. Semiconductors overall up 40% or so in the past. Is that worth buying at this point?
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Guy Adami
The, the, the rest, I suppose. I mean I'll play a little stock market with you. I think the answer is yes. But you got to be specific in video by the way. Tim has been consistent on this, made an all time high today. But some of the laggards, for example Qualcomm understanding it's entirely different business but if you look in for valuation it still makes sense. I think Qualcomm does. AMD's in the driver's seat I guess but valuation is stretched on all those names. I think Qualcomm to me is the most interesting one in the group.
- [08:16]
Joseph Zeit
Yes.
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Steve Grasso
If you ask me, would I rather, I'd rather. And Tim talks about, you know, capacity constrained and again they have obviously 20% of their revenue comes from Nvidia. They just own high end gpu, you know, production. But you know they also have a lot of exposure to Apple and you know Apple, if they ever get Apple intelligence. Correct, you might see an AI upgrade cycle for their hardware and obviously that would be very good for Taiwan Semi. They also have some fabs here in the US and they don't. They're not laying down Intel. They probably do not worry about intel and their manufacturing capabilities one bit. The company also raised their CAPEX guidance. That was one of the knocks about this company over the last few years as all of these hyperscalers were raising their capex, Taiwan Semi was not keeping up. One of the reasons why is that they run the risk of overbuilding too.
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Melissa Lee (continued)
Right.
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Steve Grasso
If they overbuild too much capacity and then they don't see the orders come in, then that's a real problem for them. So if the capacity or the capex is not going lower, which it sounds like, we're going to get a really good idea on Wednesday night whether that's the case. And I suspect in this environment they're all going to at least stay pat. Maybe they raise it a little bit. I think all of that comes up roses for Taiwan Semi.
- [09:24]
Melissa Lee
I actually like that game that you proposed, so I'm glad you went ahead and. Yeah, I mean, basically it's like, if not Intel.
- [09:30]
Guy Adami
Yeah.
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Melissa Lee
Then what? Semiconductors?
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Tim Seymour
Yeah. I wouldn't buy any of them.
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Melissa Lee
Nothing.
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Tim Seymour
No, no. Because now can they continue to run, you know, a little bit more? Of course they can. We've seen that. We've all. We've all went around the table and said that we were shocked with the run they've already had. But I think, for me, I think, you know, there's a whole host of reasons why they ran and I think supply constraints have been a little bit maybe peaky right now. Have we reached peak supply constraints? I don't know. Maybe if the war takes another leg worse, maybe. Maybe that's another leg higher. But for me, I think there's. I don't like the spike, I don't like the charts. I think they're all overbought.
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Melissa Lee
Wow. How about you?
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Dan Nathan
Well, damper, Taiwan Semi is the biggest position in my etf, so, I mean, I love it and I think it's the most important company in the world, actually. Especially when you think about global kind of tech security and the role they play with a number of different sovereigns. How important Taiwan Semi is not just to Taiwan, but to Japan, but to much of. To Korea, to. You know, we know the biggest risk in Taiwan Semi right now is China and we know what that risk is.
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Melissa Lee
Yeah. Does the run in semis, does it tell us something about the markets and the Market's thinking about the trade at this point, it seems they're going to where the scarcity is.
- [10:48]
Guy Adami
I think that's part of it. I think the momentum is still there. So people, especially again in video, it's been sideways since October, seemingly breaking out. Now people understand how momentum works in this market and I think they're trying to trade on the back of it which by the way has been the absolute right strategy, valuation be damned.
- [11:04]
Tim Seymour
Do you think we're going above 700 billion in capex spending? Because I think you have to believe that this continues to grow by orders of magnitude in order to keep that trade alive. And I think we're probably, if you're going to say the last inning, I don't know about that but we're in the last few innings and I think to Dan's point, when we hear from the hyperscalers this week, if capex spending is not intact, then I don't think you're going to see.
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Melissa Lee
I see.
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Tim Seymour
I think you're going to see this trade reverse very poorly.
- [11:31]
Dan Nathan
I hear you maybe on the, on the hyperscalers and there's, you know, that's looking like maybe that, that CapEx should have been cut back a year ago but I, I just think we're going to have rotation into the broader industrial economy into I mean the capex spend at 700 billion that's mostly attributed to hyperscalers I think is, is not the story. It's CapEx spend attributed to the other 493 and a lot of just talking
- [11:52]
Tim Seymour
about the 70s are the semis.
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Dan Nathan
I understand but their investment in, in, in semiconductors, if we're talking about hyperscalers investment in semiconductors, I think there are other companies that are doing this.
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Steve Grasso
Yeah, but I mean the one thing I would say about that, that's the infrastructure that's been built that allows the 493, the industrials to kind of build on top of that. And I think the risk for the hyperscalers commoditized that maybe there's too much capacity. And a lot of these companies, we've seen a lot of these surveys. Right. They're not getting the return right now on the investments in this. And I mean Microsoft's the best example. Yeah, they have Azure but they have 440 million installed base of Office 365 users and they're not buying this stuff. Okay. And they're the ones who have the partnership with OpenAI who have one of the biggest cloud services behind AW you
- [12:36]
Melissa Lee
know and are embedded to Every single desktop.
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Steve Grasso
Yeah, I mean so, so that, that's why, I mean like I think that's a number that a lot of folks are. You know when we see as you
- [12:45]
Tim Seymour
was up 38% last time around and the market hated it.
- [12:48]
Melissa Lee
Yeah, because of the 15 million co pilots.
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Melissa Lee (continued)
Right?
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Guy Adami
Yeah.
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Dan Nathan
Who's your favorite co pilot in the movies business?
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Guy Adami
You know what? Got to be Goose.
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Dan Nathan
I was thinking Goose is good, but how about Kareem, an airplane.
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Guy Adami
You know what? I knew you're going airplane.
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Melissa Lee
I knew it. It was so obvious. All right, for more on the markets let's bring in Joseph Zeit.
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Guy Adami
Come on. I mean we're
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Melissa Lee
get this. He now runs a ZYTL macro strategy group. Joe, it is great to see you. It's been too long.
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Guy Adami
I miss you.
- [13:19]
Joseph Zeit
Thank you so much. It is so great to be back.
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Melissa Lee
What do you make of where the markets are at record highs given what is going on in the precipice of earnings, does this make sense to you?
- [13:29]
Joseph Zeit
It does and I would say that I'm an optimist. I think that the economy remains on very strong footing. I think we continue to go up and to the right. I just want to build on Tim's point they just made a second ago. It's about a broadening out because we've seen this massive investment into capex and it is not, I think we're only in the first stages of this, starting to pay dividends through the rest of the economy. And the analog Here is the 1990s tech investment, right. And it was, it was about all that investment in 1990s and tech stocks that then broadened down. And the decade after that tech boom you saw massive productivity through the rest of the economy. Hence the other sort of 493. We haven't started to see that yet, but I think we will and I think that will pay dividends, you know, this year, next year and beyond. So my overall view of the economy is I'm optimistic. I think we go up into the right and I think that does present challenges for the Fed because they're facing economy, it's been a lot more resilient and this has been a deeper cutting cycle than what you would normally expect in non recessionary environment. So I think there's going to be challenges but my true north here is up and to the right.
- [14:29]
Steve Grasso
All right, Joe. But to get those productivity gains after that Internet bubble, the market had to crash, right? There had to be this sort of thing and the markets are very different than the economy and the productivity gains that are obviously going to drive a lot of economic activity through, you know, earnings that are going to be benefiting from that productivity gain. So we have an investment bubble here. Can we continue to run, but then also have that inflection of other industries are going to benefit from this. To me, you almost need a shakeout to some degree and I think it's probably coming at some point before those productivity again.
- [15:01]
Joseph Zeit
Yeah, I mean it's a really good question. I wouldn't predict a bubble bursting or anything like that. Are there going to be parts of this market that overheat? You know, absolutely. But here we are a quarter of the way through earnings season and first quarter earnings are getting, shaping up to be very good. Double digit gains. I think we'll see double digit earnings growth for, for the rest of 2026 and the next 12 months. So you've got underlying fundamentals that are pretty supportive. You've got really high quality companies that are making investment and we can see a path that investment paying off. So are there going to be periods where we get over the tips for skis?
- [15:30]
Melissa Lee
Sure.
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Joseph Zeit
We're going to see some pullbacks. Sure. The Nasdaq in 1999-2001 fell 76% from peak to trough. That's the bubble bursting you're talking about. But here I think we've got very high quality companies with real cash flows, real earnings and they continue to develop AI. And I think we're in the very early stages of this.
- [15:47]
Guy Adami
The original jc Great to have you back. I'm excited. I think I can speak for all of us question about the Fed. You talk about potential for surgical hikes potentially being positive for the market. I actually agree with you there. But speak to that because that's counterintuitive.
- [16:02]
Joseph Zeit
Sure. So starting point here is I think this cutting cycle is over. Right. I think the Fed is done. When we came into 2026, the consensus was for additional rate cuts. The Fed's own dot plot, you know, called for at least one additional cut. But what we've seen is economy that remains more resilient than, than most people expected. And you know, here you have about 175 basis points worth of cuts that have already been delivered in this cycle. Now if you zoom out a little bit and you look at the history of Fed cutting cycles, you can take all those cutting cycles and broadly categorize them into two different buckets, recessionary cut cycles and non recessionary cut cycles. A recessionary cut cycle, the Fed will slash and burn. They got 350 basis points. They cut deep and long. A non recessionary cut cycle is typically shorter and shallower. On average, the Fed's going to cut about 80 basis points. A non recessionary cut cycle. Well, this one they've cut 175 and it's lasted 19 months. And we have a $30 trillion economy. It's growing at 3%. We've got productivity, we've got stable labor markets. I think that they're going to have to surgically walk some of that back. I think we'll see insurance hikes and historically, insurance hikes have actually been pretty positive for equities. We don't have a lot of instances, really, just three come to mind. In the mid-1990s and 2015, if you look at those insurance hikes in the mid-1990s when the economy was booming in that investment boom, the market's performance six months later was pretty strong. Right. So here we are with again, a strong economy and a Fed that I think might have to surgically pivot toward at least one insurance hike in 2026, maybe another one 2027. I think it's something that the market will actually benefit from because they're going to say, hey, the Fed, we're watching, we acknowledge this, we're ready to move. If the Fed has to go to full hike cycle, it's because they made a mistake. But to surgically hike rates, I think it's actually a vote of support.
- [17:50]
Melissa Lee
You heard that Senator Tillis has removed his blockade from Kevin Warsh proceeding, that Kevin Wash will probably be Fed chair. This will happen under a Warsh Fed chairmanship like you believe that this could actually.
- [18:01]
Joseph Zeit
That's a really good question. Right, because we know, we know, we know. You know, people talk about Warsh wanting to argue that AI is deflationary and you know, AI generates productivity, productivity is deflationary. And so he's going to be coming in, you know, the deck's been cleared. So likely he comes in in June for probably his first meeting. And in some respects there's actually an analog out there for this. In the mid-1990s, Greenspan was all over the Internet economy and he was arguing that Internet and technology adoption would be deflationary. And in 95, 96, he was arguing that unfortunately they didn't have the evidence to back it up because when he commissioned the Fed to go out and do the studies, it turns out they couldn't find any evidence that that tech investment was actually deflationary. That was the Greenspan bluff. So you could Very easily see the next Fed chair coming in talking about AI being deflationary. The only challenge is it's not the numbers.
- [18:54]
Melissa Lee
Right. That's the trick. Joe, it is great to see you. Thank you.
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Joseph Zeit
Back on. I missed you all for your hiatus.
- [19:02]
Guy Adami
Has it been a. Joe, am I correct? Has it been a four year yesterday?
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Joseph Zeit
Joe, February 2022, you all have not changed.
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Tim Seymour
You didn't have gray hair the last time.
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Neil McDonald
No, I did.
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Joseph Zeit
Being at home for six months on a non compete routine will do that.
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Melissa Lee
Understandable. Great to see you Jeff. See you again soon. What do you think? Well, rate hikes, surgical rate hike.
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Dan Nathan
I don't think it matters. I actually what I heard Joe say is the Fed's kind of out of the picture right now in a way that's substantial for both the economy and therefore for the market. I realize the Fed always matters, but what I liked that that I would reinforce and it reinforces an S and P where it is is that there's a robust earnings, you have cyclicalities. It tells me I also want to chase a couple of things that were really working today like banks that are getting back up near those all time highs again. So I tend to agree with that. I don't know, I mean I think there's probably more politics around the Fed than both the new chairman will actually be embodying and I think it probably will be kind of a relief that the Fed is back to their old job.
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Tim Seymour
Not a shot there's going to be a hike. Even surgical, it doesn't matter what it is. Not a shot there'll be a hike. And during the 90s there was no supply issue with oil, there was no tariffs. In the 90s there was, there was a host of different reasons why they were raising and also the collapse of the job market. When you compare 2025 to 2024 and 2026, the job market has really fallen out of bed and there's a dual mandate here. Not a shot they're going to going to raise.
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Melissa Lee
Well, the suspected gunman at Saturday night's White House Correspondents Dinner. Appearing in court today, CNBC's Megan Casella is at the White House with the very latest.
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Megan Casella
Meghan Melissa, that suspected gunman at the White House Correspondents dinner on Saturday night has now been criminally charged with trying to assassinate the president. That was one of three charges that was formally handed down when 31 year old Cole Allen appeared in court in Washington this afternoon for the first time since the incident. Now that first charge, the attempt to assassinate the president is punishable with up to life in prison. That's according to the acting Attorney General, Todd Blanch. The other two charges he faces are transportation of a firearm or ammunition in interstate commerce to commit a felony and discharge of a firearm during a crime of violence. Now the U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia, Jeanine Pirro says more charges will be coming as this investigation continues. Take a listen.
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Jeanine Pirro
Those charges are only three charges that are in the complaint that has been presented in federal district court about an hour ago. There will be additional charges as this investigation continues to unfold. But make no mistake, this was an attempted assassination of the President of the United States with the defendant making clear what his intent was. And that intent was to bring down as many of the high ranking cabinet officials as he could.
- [21:57]
Megan Casella
Now, Melissa, law enforcement says at this point that they know that Allen fired his shotgun, but they say it's unclear at this time whose bullet hit the Secret Service agent who was injured. So more to come on that point as this investigation continues.
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Melissa Lee
Melissa Megan, thank you. Megan Casella. Coming up, a high energy etf. The OA hitting multi year highs today. How our traders are positioning the oil trade next. Plus all the action from this morning's earnings reports. Why Domino served up some cold pizza. And the surprise subscriber growth boosting Verizon do not go anywhere. Fast money's to going back in TMrbor.
- [22:36]
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Melissa Lee
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Melissa Lee
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Melissa Lee
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Melissa Lee
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- [23:34]
Melissa Lee (continued)
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- [24:34]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. The Oil Services ETF at levels not seen since late 2018 as stalled peace talks between the US and Iran drove energy prices prices higher today. Brent crude jumping almost 3% topping 108 a barrel while WTI rose 2% to 96. What do you make of this? I mean we're talking about the run semis. I mean, oh wow.
- [24:53]
Guy Adami
To me this suggests that the energy move might be over. Well let's put it this way, I think it might be over in terms of the levels that we saw, but I don't think it's over in terms of how long it's going to last. And oh is telling exactly that story that duration wise it's going to last a lot longer than people think. So I think we've been pretty consistent here. I think you want to stay in the oil service names. I think the excellent is a place to be, although that's probably more volatile. Oh is steady as she goes. I think it continues to go higher.
- [25:21]
Dan Nathan
I think slb, I don't think we're allowed to call it slumber's day anymore.
- [25:24]
Guy Adami
That's really weird by the way.
- [25:25]
Dan Nathan
It's like it was a naughty word. But anyway, SLB had an underwhelming first Q number. That was a time to buy it. I think you've kind of you didn't miss it. Again, if you look at the earnings power of this company going back two times when oil was in spike mode and I take yourself back to 2015, 2016. Look at the earnings power of the company. Their move into digital is an important part and I think they have production recovery and I think the OIH which also really take a long term chart. I know guy likes the 40 year chart. Okay.
- [25:54]
Melissa Lee
You know that duration of choice is 40 years.
- [25:58]
Guy Adami
Case where I like the 40.
- [25:59]
Steve Grasso
Well you do a log 40. Of course you have to that way. Okay, I just want to be clear there.
- [26:05]
Melissa Lee
It does seem like as this conflict is progressing finally more and more on Wall street are raising their, their estimates for WTI as well as Brent Goldman Sachs today doing that to both Brent and WTI saying, you know what? Now we see mid June as the end of the conflict as opposed to mid May. But it's sort of like this rolling, like we want to suspend, you know, belief in terms of when it's going to end, but we have to confront the reality that it's not ending.
- [26:30]
Tim Seymour
Right. Oil markets are unforgiving both up and down. And the market is perceiving this is the, the, the conflict has extended longer than we thought it would, it would take. So when they do reverse, it will reverse very hard. And I'd rather be in the refiner play which actually makes those crack spreads, the input versus what they sell it for because their number one input is a barrel of oil. I'd rather be there than the other places.
- [26:55]
Melissa Lee
Do you think that we reverse that quickly given infrastructure is damaged? It's not just let the ships through and then everything goes back to one
- [27:03]
Tim Seymour
thing before you, before you go away. So I don't think it reverses to the point of $65 a barrel oil, but anything less than people thinking 110, 120, I think is still going to be bearish.
- [27:14]
Guy Adami
I think we're starting to think we're in this new range, this range higher.
- [27:19]
Melissa Lee
You hate that, right?
- [27:20]
Guy Adami
I know, but is it you're kind
- [27:23]
Dan Nathan
of saying not even hump day.
- [27:24]
Guy Adami
No, I didn't even new. No, it's not hump day going to last longer. I think energy prices will be elevated longer than the market realizes that.
- [27:32]
Steve Grasso
Go higher for longer.
- [27:33]
Guy Adami
And the OIH is telling you think by Turkey day.
- [27:35]
Tim Seymour
Gobble, gobble, gobble. Think where? Where?
- [27:38]
Guy Adami
I can't.
- [27:38]
Melissa Lee
I know I can't.
- [27:40]
Guy Adami
The gobble gobble.
- [27:42]
Dan Nathan
Every country in the world is stockpiling. Every country in the world is buying up everything they can. Every country in the world is thinking how they're not going to be in this position again. To me, oil prices are not going to correct the minute they open the straight.
- [27:54]
Guy Adami
By the way.
- [27:54]
Steve Grasso
That's the same thing.
- [27:55]
Dan Nathan
Correct a bit. But they're not, they're not going back to 65. It's 85 to 90.
- [27:59]
Steve Grasso
So that's the same reserves. Well, that's the same thing for GPUs and chips and CPUs. I mean, like if you don't think there's double ordering right now because of maybe the access to helium, because of a whole host of things as far as the shipping costs and everything like that. So again, I think you can draw a lot of, you know, comparisons.
- [28:15]
Dan Nathan
I thought I was expecting have at it.
- [28:17]
Joseph Zeit
People having this time.
- [28:19]
Melissa Lee
I mean, we're 20 something minutes in
- [28:21]
Guy Adami
the show on Twitter, people are saying an Independence Day with Will Smith, that guy that lost his mind. He was a great pilot in that he has a brother pilot or a copilot. Yeah, I don't know about that.
- [28:36]
Melissa Lee
There's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.
- [28:39]
Melissa Lee (continued)
Domino's doesn't deliver. The stock taking a huge hit after some undercooked results. Why the dough isn't rising for the pizza chain and how competition is weighing on results. Plus how one trading platform is leveraging the AI surge to help investors. And what the CEO sees in store for the big tech trade with earnings on deck. You're watching Fast MONEY live from the NASDAQ market site at Times Square. We're back right after this.
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No.
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Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks kicking off the week with a small gain. The S and P and Nasdaq both closing at fresh record highs. The Dow though posting a small loss now on a three day losing streak. Shares of Verizon higher after telecom giant posted earnings that beat expectations raised its profit outlook to the company. Also adding 55,000 new cell customers. Shares are now up nearly 17% this year and some after hours action. Cadence Designs topping earnings and revenue estimates and raising full year guidance. Lending club jumping after beating EPS and revenue estimates and giving better than expected EPS guidance. Semiconductor company Rambus falling after earnings fell short of expectations and Nucor higher after beating at the top in the bottom lines. Meantime, five of the Mag 7 stocks are reporting earnings this week and retail traders are watching the results closely. For a look at how they are positioning, let's bring in Mumu US CEO Neil McDonald. Mumu by the way is an AI driven online trading platform with millions of global users. Great to have you Neal.
- [31:41]
Neil McDonald
Thank you back. Thank you. Thank you.
- [31:43]
Melissa Lee
Are retail traders optimistic? I mean are they, have they, are they all in at this point or do they miss out on, on this rally to franchise?
- [31:52]
Neil McDonald
Our clients especially are all in. So okay, even with the sell off we spoke last time back in end of February, March, they didn't sell their core holdings. So they still very long the Magic 7, they sold some call spreads, they were smart, they bought some puts, they sold other parts of their portfolio. But then from kind of the end of March till now, every day we've seen inflows. They're all buying the same Mag 7 names. They still believe even with that 20% move from end of March till now that they're all in.
- [32:23]
Dan Nathan
It's amazing for a global platform where you're seeing amazing growth in places like Japan and Malaysia and it really is a wealth management story as much as a trading story. But your per client asset growth in the US was the best of the global portfolio. Is that again, is that just because it's a, it's a higher, it's a wealthier customer? I mean how do you explain that in a world where I would have thought you would have seen at least on a relative basis percentage terms some of these other places would have seen a bigger asset growth?
- [32:52]
Neil McDonald
Yeah, I think our clients tend to be on the higher end. We offer these amazing tools on the platform so tends to be more active traders. We have a lot of people who are buy and hold as well as the active portion. But I think our platform because it is very tech forward kind of it appeals to the people who are more serious investors investors. So not just your buy sell trading small amounts of stocks, these people got large amounts of money and they're smart with it and they use our tools on a daily basis.
- [33:22]
Guy Adami
So now the tool is the agentic investing. So that just rolled out. So speak. That's another sort of arrow in the quiver of your, of your basically of your customer base.
- [33:32]
Neil McDonald
Yeah, I mean we rolled out last year and when that, when that came out I was kind of like that shocked me and the uptake was incredible. I said at the time it's like having Warren Buffett in your pocket. But this now the agentic stuff is next level. This is like having an execution desk, a quant, a developer, an engineer, a market screener person. It's like having your own pod at a hedge fund. Everything you would need to make smart, informed decisions is all now on your desktop or on your phone. So I mean I use it. I have many more trading ideas like you guys than you have. A time to trade B stocks. I love that I can't watch option strategies. I want to look at, I want to look at where the option curves are, what the time series looks like. I just don't have time with that and the news coming and your day job. So what this does is enable you to watch the market to trade for you. Here's what I did last week. So I've been using this for two weeks. I said take my last 30 days trades, run them back and change my stop to half the distance and twice the distance. What's the P and L difference? And it got me a dashboard, went through my trades and it showed me what my piano would have been with the stop half the way or stop twice the way.
- [34:46]
Steve Grasso
Neil, are you considering event contracts and really how is it kind of fitting into the narrative, you know, across the landscape in general? I'm just curious, are you seeing clients who want them and what do you think of the volumes and some of the things that are trading Right.
- [34:58]
Neil McDonald
So we don't do them at the moment. Something that we are thinking about, but it's not currently on the platform.
- [35:03]
Melissa Lee
How do you back test if you do these? The agent, the agentic.
- [35:09]
Neil McDonald
So like I can't code right. So I think every year for the past 10 years I've paid that $39 for Udemy for teach yourself Python code. I've never got past the second lesson, it's quite boring and I haven't got the time now. You don't have to. So it's natural language. So I just type into the agent.
- [35:27]
Melissa Lee
So we have speaking normally.
- [35:28]
Neil McDonald
Speaking normally. So we've got the MOOMOO API. Then we built this really secure tunnel so it's within the same environment. So it's not a third party. We're not ever exposing your password to the agent. So the agent would be openclaw, Claude code. What else is there? Gen X, there's Codex. Sorry. These are names I hadn't heard of two months ago. I don't think I'd ever heard of openclaw until the past six, seven weeks. Thankfully, our dev guys and our product guys knew all about this. But it means that you can just write, hey, this is my strategy, this is my overwriting strategy. Or this is every time S and p is up 1% and oil is here. What would happen if I bought this? And it will run it for you on 20 years worth of data in seconds and give you every trade you did. So you could do it before on the platform, but the difference is you have to do the no algo code, the code building. Now you just type it in.
- [36:26]
Melissa Lee
Do you have an idea of what is the most common sort of query that your users are typing in? What do they want to know about? What are they asking for? What are they trading?
- [36:34]
Neil McDonald
A lot of them are looking at their portfolios. What am I doing right, what am I doing wrong? Am I over concentrated in something? People are really starting to use it to trade. So by default it goes to our paper trading environment. So you can practice. But we have people, we have clients who use it to scan the market every day. And when a trading idea comes, you get it on your phone and it's, do you want to trade this? Yes, no.
- [36:59]
Melissa Lee
And then it executes, and then it executes for you.
- [37:01]
Neil McDonald
So you can actually take the stabilizers off completely and let it trade. But the step is do it paper first, do it with confirmation second, and then when you feel very confident, you can let it trade for you.
- [37:13]
Melissa Lee
So, Neil, great to see you. It's fascinating.
- [37:15]
Neil McDonald
Thank you. Thanks guys. And thank you for not mentioning baseball,
- [37:19]
Melissa Lee
at least not on tv.
- [37:21]
Dan Nathan
Got my baseball done. We were talking about, you know, there's a lot to talk about, but we're loyal people here.
- [37:27]
Melissa Lee
What do you make of the technology? It's amazing.
- [37:29]
Tim Seymour
This has democratized trading. When I first started trading, it was only the largest institutions that had access to anything. Now you could model inside of 40 seconds where it used to take you four weeks to model. So I think this is extremely exciting if you know how to use it and really don't get carried away.
- [37:48]
Dan Nathan
I would just say you talk about the parent company Futu, which trades here in the U.S. i mean, this is an 11 times multiple, you know, with 16 to 18% growth. I mean it's, it's a really attractive name that's paying out a higher dividend and free cash flow.
- [38:03]
Melissa Lee
I don't know if they have 40 year charts though, guys. So I'm not sure if you're ready for this.
- [38:06]
Guy Adami
Well, we can talk offline about the 40 year charts. A lot of people I think.
- [38:11]
Melissa Lee
Yep. Coming up, Elon Musk versus Open Air. The headlines from day one in the battle between tech heavyweights and what's at stake for AI as the parties face off the details when Fast Money returns. Welcome back to FAST money. It is day one of Elon Musk's courtroom battle against Sam Altman. The Tesla CEO is suing OpenAI and its CEO alleging they went back on promises to keep the company nonprofit. CNBC's Kate Rooney has been at the courthouse all day. She joins us with the latest. Hey Kate.
- [38:43]
Kate Rooney
Hey, Melissa. Well, the big headline is that the jury has finally been selected in that Elon Musk versus Sam Altman trial. We had a handful of potential jurors today saying that they had negative views of Elon Musk and of AI overall. The judge did acknowledge that about Musk at the reality this is a direct quote is people don't like him. But she did also express faith that the jurors in this case could actually put aside that and then respect the judicial process. So it is moving forward tomorrow. Altman was inside at least this morning. And the backdrop here, Musk is suing Open its CEO Sam Altman as well as President Greg Brockman. And Microsoft is a co defendant as well. Musk was a co founder of OpenAI. He alleges that he was deceived into funding the company under the guise of a nonprofit mission driven startup at the time and nonprofit. The two claims in this case, the first one in focus is breach of a charitable trust. So Musk team saying that they the promise at the time was to keep OpenAI an open source nonprofit and then prevent any sort of big tech company from monopolizing that technology. Google was the big one at the time and then that move towards a for profit structure and deal with Microsoft compromised that promise. And it's tweet this Morning. Musk saying that Altman and Brockman, quote, stole a charity, full stop. The second claim at hand here, unjust enrichment. So Musk claims that Altman and Brockman used Musk's funding and connections to build what is now an $800 billion company and then personally profit from that. Musk is looking for up to $134 billion in damage damages rather. And the removal of Altman and Brockman from their leadership positions as well as changes in the recent restructuring that happened for OpenAI in the fall argument. Opening arguments kick off tomorrow. We will also start getting a high profile list of witnesses that will be next after opening arguments. Includes Elon Musk himself, Sam Altman, Greg Brockman and then Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella is also on that list now.
- [40:38]
Melissa Lee
All right, Kate, thanks. Kate Rooney, I'm wondering what the jurors think of Sam Altman or any of the others. What do you think the ramifications are whenever we have these trials and these, you know, CEOs, CFOs, whoever are compelled to testify, you always learn interesting things about.
- [40:54]
Steve Grasso
Well, they're not going to be good things that we learn. I mean here's the thing. There's been it's pretty obvious who these people are. It's pretty obvious what they think about this technology and how they want to use it. I know that we're all enjoying it in a whole host of different ways. And it's just kind of scary that we have like a half a dozen guys like this whole own this technology and have really all this ability to do and use it however they want. And the fact that these guys are going to beat each other's brains and I mean have a ball, I mean like, you know, and let's see what comes out in discovery because I think there's a lot of really nasty stuff that we're probably going to find out.
- [41:28]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, a low energy call on Wall street by one analyst is powering down on GE Vernova after supercharged run this year and where he sees a stock heading next more fast money into. Welcome back to Fast money. Gernova sliding 2 1/2% today after BNP Paribas downgraded the high flying energy name to a neutral from outperformed analysts saying they need more visibility on how the company will execute on more than 110 gigawatts of orders by the end of the year. They did raise their price target on the stock to 1190. That is about 6% higher than where the shares closed today. G. Vernova has run up 71% so far this year. Basically one argument that they pose is, you know, 90% of their gas turbines are sold already in terms of their pipeline. So what else is there to get the stock to move higher and at
- [42:23]
Guy Adami
some point becomes a valuation thing. Like how can you justify it if that in fact is the case? And I think, listen, the average price target is 1187. So they're right in line. I think if you're chasing the stock to the upside now, that's exactly what you're doing. You're chasing. So I don't love the price target change, but I like the call in general.
- [42:40]
Tim Seymour
If you look at the market cap, it's a $300 billion market cap in backlog, it's 163 billion in backlog. Their book to bill is a ratio of basically two, meaning every time they fill an order, they get more. They get two orders every time they fill one. So it's hard to bet against this stock. I do understand the run, I do understand maybe you want to pull back. It's right around those price targets. But I wouldn't be a buyer here. But I also wouldn't run for the exits.
- [43:07]
Dan Nathan
Well, I commend the analysts for leaning into a stock that's tripled over. You know, if you go back, you know, a year and a half, I mean, it's been extraordinary. It's been one of the plays that's been part of the datacenter play and the build out and the power side of it. The valuation at some point becomes a problem. I'm not chasing it here.
- [43:24]
Melissa Lee
I mean, this is sort of the argument that you can make with a lot of the memory stocks. I mean with, you know, a lot of it is sold, the pipeline is sold and so what else is there to move these stocks higher? And that's the promise of more beyond that.
- [43:36]
Steve Grasso
Well, we haven't even talked about access to energy here. I mean like so you can talk about oil and this, but I mean this NIMBY stuff that's going on with these data centers and a lot of it has to do with the use of water and the price of oil or the price of energy.
- [43:48]
Melissa Lee
Up next, final trades. Time for the final trade. Let's go around the horn. Timbo.
- [43:59]
Dan Nathan
Great to have Neil and talk about Moomoo parent company futu. Very interesting company. Very cheap, a lot of cash, free cash flow. Check it out.
- [44:06]
Melissa Lee
Steve.
- [44:07]
Tim Seymour
Evtol company Joby completed its first ever point to point JFK to Manhattan today.
- [44:13]
Steve Grasso
What was she Sam best co pilot it ever. Chewbacca.
- [44:17]
Guy Adami
Yeah Chewbacca.
- [44:19]
Steve Grasso
That's a pretty cool.
- [44:20]
Dan Nathan
That's pretty pretty good. Whatever.
- [44:22]
Steve Grasso
McDonald's 52 week all time highs to nearly 52 week lows.
- [44:26]
Melissa Lee (continued)
I think you take a shot guy.
- [44:28]
Guy Adami
Love McDonald's.
- [44:29]
Melissa Lee
Who doesn't?
- [44:30]
Dan Nathan
You work there too?
- [44:31]
Guy Adami
No I didn't. Tim.
- [44:32]
Steve Grasso
Funny man.
- [44:33]
Guy Adami
Okay, but we're eg gets you done.
- [44:35]
Melissa Lee
All right. Thanks for watching Fast Mad Money with Jim Cramer starts right now.
- [44:41]
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