Markets Digest Latest Inflation Read… And Trade Desk Turmoil Deepens 8/14/25

Summary

CNBC's "Fast Money" Podcast Summary
Episode: Markets Digest Latest Inflation Read… And Trade Desk Turmoil Deepens
Release Date: August 14, 2025

Hosted by Melissa Lee, along with traders Tim Seymour, Steve Grasso, Karen Feinerman, and guest analysts, CNBC's "Fast Money" delves into the day's most impactful financial news. This episode covers a spectrum of topics, from government involvement in major tech companies to significant movements in the ad tech and pharmaceutical sectors. Below is a comprehensive summary of the key discussions, insights, and conclusions from the episode.

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1. Intel's Potential US Government Stake

Overview:
Shares of Intel surged following reports that the Trump administration is contemplating taking a stake in the semiconductor giant. The speculation intensified after Intel CEO, Lip Bhutan, met with President Trump at the White House.

Key Discussions:

• Eamon Javers ([01:44]): Highlighted the lack of official comments from both the White House and Intel, citing statements that dismissed discussions as "speculation."

• Steve Grasso ([02:00]): Expressed skepticism, noting, “when you hear a government nationalizing a company, stocks don't rally 8%. They usually sell off dramatically.”

• Melissa Lee ([02:52]): Pointed out the stock's 19% weekly increase, attributing it to President Trump's focus on Bhutan, remarking, “Maybe the best thing that's happened to intel in recent history is that President Trump picked on Lip Bhutan.”

• Karen Feinerman ([05:57]): Compared the situation to the financial crisis interventions, questioning the unusual nature of such government involvement outside a crisis.

Insights:

• The potential government stake in Intel is viewed through a strategic lens, emphasizing national security and technological leadership.

• Comparisons were drawn to emerging markets where government involvement often signals a strategic imperative rather than an investment opportunity.

Conclusion:
While the stock reaction suggests optimism, experts caution against interpreting it as a conventional investment scenario. The move appears to be more about national strategy than financial investment, making it a novel and potentially unprecedented action in the current economic landscape.

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2. Applied Materials' Earnings Report and Market Reaction

Overview:
Applied Materials reported a drop in shares despite surpassing top and bottom-line expectations. The decline was attributed to a revised outlook and decreased demand from China.

Key Discussions:

• Christina Parsonnevolis ([11:02]): Detailed the earnings report, noting, “Chinese revenues... are going to drop to 29%,” and highlighted issues with U.S. export licenses delaying approvals.

• Eamon Javers ([12:37]): Critiqued the company's guidance, stating, “the guide is scaring people,” and emphasized the stock's underperformance despite a record quarter.

• Karen Feinerman ([13:02]): Argued that a lower guidance was justified given the uncertainties, suggesting, “they should guide lower.”

Insights:

• The semiconductor industry's reliance on Chinese demand poses significant risks amid geopolitical tensions and regulatory hurdles.

• Investor sentiment shifted negatively due to cautious future guidance, overshadowing the company's strong quarterly performance.

Conclusion:
Applied Materials faces headwinds from reduced Chinese demand and delayed export licenses, leading to investor apprehension despite solid earnings. The company's future performance remains tethered to geopolitical developments and the broader semiconductor market's health.

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3. Federal Reserve's Inflation Report and Market Implications

Overview:
The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 9.10% in July, marking the steepest increase since 2022. This has implications for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly regarding interest rate adjustments.

Key Discussions:

• Steve Liesman ([14:11]): Analyzed the data's impact on Fed decisions, mentioning, “the futures market continues to price in a strong a confident 93% probability of a September rate cut.”

• Tim Seymour ([19:15]): Predicted, “I think he [Fed Chair Powell] does cut in September and I think he cuts one more time in December.”

• Karen Feinerman ([16:49]): Questioned the significance of a 25 basis point cut, pondering, “Does a 25 really matter?”

Insights:

• Despite hotter-than-expected inflation data, the market largely anticipates rate cuts, reflecting confidence in the Fed's ability to manage economic pressures.

• The balancing act between curbing inflation and maintaining economic growth remains a central theme in Fed deliberations.

Conclusion:
Inflation pressures continue to influence expectations for Fed policy, with the market anticipating at least one rate cut in September. However, the broader economic indicators, particularly labor market dynamics, will play a crucial role in shaping future monetary decisions.

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4. Berkshire Hathaway's Strategic Investments

Overview:
Berkshire Hathaway made significant investments by taking a new stake in UnitedHealth, alongside acquisitions in other sectors, signaling strategic portfolio diversification.

Key Discussions:

• Leslie Picker ([21:12]): Reported, “Berkshire Hathaway taking a new stake in UnitedHealth sending that beleaguered stock soaring in after hours trading up 8% right now.”

• Tim Seymour ([23:30]): Expressed confidence in UnitedHealth, stating, “I think this is a good [...] bet to see people getting behind them.”

• Karen Feinerman ([23:51]): Mentioned confidence in remaining long on UnitedHealth, adding, “I am still long.”

Insights:

• Berkshire's involvement in UnitedHealth, alongside stakes in steelmaker Nucor and homebuilder Dr. Horton, indicates a strategic move towards sectors with long-term growth potential.

• The investments have positively influenced market perceptions of the respective stocks, reflecting investor confidence in Berkshire's choices.

Conclusion:
Berkshire Hathaway's investments signal confidence in UnitedHealth and other key sectors, potentially driving growth and stabilizing stocks amidst broader market volatility.

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5. Major Funds Divesting from Chinese Stocks

Overview:
Significant institutions like the Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund (PIF) and Bridgewater Associates have sold their holdings in major Chinese companies, including Alibaba, Baidu, and Nio.

Key Discussions:

• Tim Seymour ([26:18]): Highlighted the trend, stating, “Bridgewater Associates sold all of its Chinese holdings.”

• Steve Grasso ([27:33]): Emphasized bullish sentiments despite sell-offs, noting, “I’m very bullish on valuation.”

• Karen Feinerman ([28:22]): Expressed understanding of continued long positions despite the sell-off, saying, “I am still long.”

Insights:

• The divestment trend reflects growing caution among global investors regarding the Chinese market amidst geopolitical tensions and regulatory uncertainties.

• Despite large funds pulling out, some analysts view the sell-offs as opportunities, believing that valuations present long-term upside potential.

Conclusion:
While major funds are retracting investments from Chinese equities, selective bullishness remains among certain analysts and investors who perceive value amidst the sell-offs. The market dynamics suggest a cautious but opportunistic approach to Chinese investments.

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6. Trade Desk's Turmoil Amid Client Partnerships Shifts

Overview:
Trade Desk experienced another significant stock drop following reports that its largest client, Walmart, is no longer exclusive, coupled with increased competition from Amazon.

Key Discussions:

• Jason Helfstein ([30:09]): Maintained an outperform rating with a $70 price target, suggesting, “there's a lot more likelihood the stock will be back well over 20 after the next quarter.”

• Steve Grasso ([35:18]): Voiced skepticism about the stock's valuation, stating, “the valuation is tough and I think the uncertainty remains.”

• Tim Seymour ([35:43]): Advised caution, recommending, “if you're going to buy on a dip divided up into a couple of 20, 20% lots instead of jumping all in.”

Insights:

• The weakening exclusivity of major partnerships is raising concerns about Trade Desk's revenue stability and competitive positioning in the ad tech space.

• While some analysts remain optimistic about the company's long-term prospects, immediate investor sentiment is wary due to valuation concerns and operational uncertainties.

Conclusion:
Trade Desk faces short-term challenges from shifting client relationships and heightened competition. Although there is potential for recovery, especially post-quarter, the current environment necessitates a cautious investment approach.

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7. Eli Lilly's Price Increases in the UK Amid US Policy Pressures

Overview:
Eli Lilly announced a substantial price hike for its diabetes drug, Mounjaro, in the UK. This move aligns with the Trump administration's push for Big Pharma to harmonize US drug prices with international markets.

Key Discussions:

• Dr. Kavita Patel ([36:55]): Explained, “Eli Lilly doing this isn't shocking,” and anticipated more global price adjustments.

• Steve Grasso ([37:52]): Discussed the strategic implications of the price hike in relation to US negotiations with Medicare and Medicaid.

• Dr. Patel ([39:52]): Highlighted upcoming detailed data on Mounjaro, emphasizing its clinical efficacy and potential cost benefits compared to injectable forms.

Insights:

• The price hikes are part of a broader strategy to balance global pricing structures and maintain competitiveness in key markets like the US.

• Clinical advancements and adjustments in dosing may enhance the drug's market appeal despite higher costs.

Conclusion:
Eli Lilly's pricing strategy reflects the complex interplay between global market positioning and domestic policy pressures. Future developments will hinge on detailed clinical data and further negotiations with US healthcare programs.

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8. Earnings Reports: Tapestry and Deere

Overview:
Both Tapestry and Deere reported earnings that led to significant stock declines despite meeting expectations, primarily due to conservative future guidance and external economic pressures.

Key Discussions:

• Tim Seymour ([42:10]): Speculated that Tapestry's challenges are rooted in its investment in acquisition strategies, particularly the Capri takeover.

• Steve Grasso ([43:28]): Discussed Deere's conservative outlook amidst inflationary pressures, suggesting, “there’s significant inflation running through the system.”

• Karen Feinerman ([42:32]): Noted that Tapestry provided specific tariff expectations, calling it a “bad case scenario.”

Insights:

• Market reactions indicate that investors prioritize future outlooks over current performance, especially in industries sensitive to economic shifts and trade policies.

• The apparel and heavy machinery sectors are grappling with supply chain complexities and geopolitical tariffs, affecting investor confidence.

Conclusion:
Tapestry and Deere's earnings reports underscore the impact of macroeconomic factors and strategic business decisions on stock performance. While current earnings met expectations, future guidance has led to investor caution and stock price volatility.

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Final Thoughts:
This episode of "Fast Money" provided a deep dive into significant market movements and strategic corporate decisions. From government involvement in tech giants and major investment shifts to challenges in the ad tech and pharmaceutical sectors, the discussions emphasized the intricate balance between geopolitical factors, economic indicators, and corporate strategies shaping today's financial landscape. Investors are advised to stay informed and approach market opportunities with a blend of optimism and caution.

Transcript

[Melissa Lee]

A rich life isn't a straight line to a destination on the horizon. Sometimes it takes an unexpected turn with detours, new possibilities, and even another passenger or three. And with 100 years of navigating ups and downs, you can count on Edward Jones to help guide you through it all. Because life is a winding path made rich by the people you walk it with. Let's find your rich together. Edward Jones Member, SIPC Are you ready to get spicy?

[Tim Seymour]

These Doritos Golden Sriracha aren't that spicy.

[Melissa Lee]

Maybe it's time to turn up the heat or turn it down.

[Tim Seymour]

It's time for something that's not too spicy.

[Melissa Lee]

Try Doritos Golden Sriracha, Spicy but not too spicy. Live in the NASDAQ markets in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. National intel. Shares of the chipmaker popping on report that the US Is considering taking a stake in the stock. The precedent that would set and what it means for the chip sector and trade desk tumbles. The ad tech stock dropping on reports of major client is pulling back from the company. What will it take for shares to recover from here? Plus, Eli Lilly makes the moves on Manjaro core. We crumbles again ahead of lockup expiration and baba baubles. Some major funds are selling the stock. Should you follow suit. I'm Melissa Lee, come to you live from studio. Be at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Steve Grasso, Karen Feinerman and Guy Adami. We'll get into this morning's inflation data in just a moment. But first, shares of intel still spiking late in the day on reports the Trump administration discussing taking a stake in the company. That after Intel CEO Lip Bhutan visited President Trump at the White House just on Monday. Amen. Javors has the very latest developments. Eamon.

[Eamon Javers]

Hey there, Melissa. What we've got now are a whole lot of no comments from all parties, starting with the White House. Take a look at this statement they put out just a short time ago. The White House saying discussion about hypothetical deals should be regarded as spiritual speculation unless officially announced by the administration.

[Steve Grasso]

That is a no comment.

[Eamon Javers]

What you don't see in there is a denial. Take a look at the intel statement as well. Intel is deeply committed to supporting President Trump's efforts to strengthening US Technology and manufacturing leadership. We look forward to continuing to work with the Trump administration to advance these shared priorities. But we are not going to comment on rumors or speculation. There's that word Again, speculation. What you don't see in either statement is a denial that this is being discussed behind the scenes, which is what the Bloomberg report said, citing people familiar with the situation. The Bloomberg report a little bit thin on details. They don't have a price that the.

[Steve Grasso]

US Government's going to pay for this stake.

[Eamon Javers]

They don't have a percentage of a stake that the US Government might take in Intel.

[Steve Grasso]

Nonetheless, you see what it's done to.

[Eamon Javers]

Intel shares there late in the day here. Melissa, back over to you.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, Eamon, thank you. Eamon Jabbers already going to the stock was up a lot, is up 19% on the week. Maybe the best thing that's happened to intel in recent history is that President Trump picked on Lip Bhutan. I mean, because that's what it looks like in terms of the stock performance.

[Eamon Javers]

And I think we had that. We've been having the conversation. It hasn't panned out. Now it's starting to. And if you think about intel could be sort of the Taiwan semi of Taiwan. Well, intel could be sort of the same thing here in terms of the foundry business. It makes actually a lot of sense in terms of security being domiciled in the United States dominating here. And we've said that for a while now. It's starting to manifest in the stock. And I don't think this is over by any stretch.

[Melissa Lee]

I mean, this had always been a pillar for a long time. And Tim, we've been talking about this for months, maybe longer, about how, you know, it is a national semiconductor company and now under the Trump administration, if he wants to bring back manufacturing here to the this makes all the 100% sense.

[Steve Grasso]

But it makes sense or it would have made more sense in the context of let's provide incentives, let's provide opportunities for access to either government funds or loans or grants. It's not taking a stake. And so as the guy that's been investing in emerging markets a lot of his career, when you hear a government nationalizing a company, stocks don't rally 8%. They usually sell off dramatically. So I'm not saying that this isn't necessarily good news. And I think it's interesting that the White House was effectively talking down intel while maybe thinking about buying them. I think you've got a fascinating story because the Trump administration and a very different world order is very focused on national champion companies. And this is something that again, I feel like I've been used to dealing with around the world and that's fine. In fact, it may be the right move Lip Bhutan, who was known as Mr. Chip in China. I mean the concerns that are coming out of say Ohio I think are probably more or has a battleground state. It doesn't surprise me that making intel and their lack of spending on more jobs in Ohio a potential target. And there's a whole political process that's going here. But there's no question that Lip Bhutan has a lot of relationships in China. This is a US versus China tip Chip war and tech war. And I do think that, that it's not only not surprising but it's appropriate that people should make sure that intel is properly a U.S. company focused on U.S. concerns. And you know, if it's more of a public. Excuse me, yeah. If it's more of a government owned entity than a pure private entity, there will be that much more control. And maybe this is the day and age where we need to. But this is not conventional and this is very surprising.

[Melissa Lee]

It is not conventional. Particularly post great financial crisis. We were discussing. During the great financial crisis the government took stakes effectively in a lot of companies including GM and the financials. Karen. But that was during a time of crisis and for this to happen outside of crisis.

[Karen Feinerman]

Yes.

[Melissa Lee]

Is unusual.

[Karen Feinerman]

I mean maybe they think of it as a crisis. Right. Intel for Intel. Clearly intel has, you know, the promise of intel the last few years hasn't, hasn't borne out. Right. So. But you're talking about to save the banking system.

[Melissa Lee]

Right.

[Karen Feinerman]

GCIB had to, had to issue it preferred to the government whether they wanted to or not. And this is a very different situation than that. Although, you know, I don't know what kind of bargaining power intel has. I don't know if they want this. Maybe they think it's great, I don't know. But I don't think they have a ton of bargaining power. So it's interesting. It is, it's, it's novel. I wonder if we're going to see any more kinds of transactions. Like we haven't even seen one yet. It's a story of it but.

[Tim Seymour]

Well, I think, I think this is more strategic. This is not a state owned enterprise. This the stake and MP. They did take a 15% stake in MP Materials. So he sees this as strategic rare earth strategic chips. Strategic. So if you come up with a bunch of different companies, he'll probably take a bunch of different other stakes. I don't really have a problem with it. I own intel. So of course I want to see the stock go MP but and I owned mp so. So for me, you Know, I invested around those strategic companies. As long as they're just stakes and not state owned enterprise, I think I'm okay with it.

[Karen Feinerman]

Right.

[Melissa Lee]

And Tim, going back to the emerging markets metaphor, I get that. But there is a board. Theoretically the board will vote in some way on this and isn't investing along with the government. I mean, you've got a government put maybe the strongest put out there in theory.

[Steve Grasso]

As we've said with Alibaba, if I know the government's on my side now, then I'm a much more confident investor. And maybe I've removed a lot of governance dynamics. But think of any country can dub any sector strategic. And that's what's happened. And I've invested in countries where they've dubbed 18 sectors to be strategic, which means suddenly they are no longer in the hands of the private sector. Now, again, decide what you want as an investor. This may be the right time in a world where globalization's dead to be betting more so on board with your government. And in this case it's the US government. And if there's a government in the world, I'm going to bet with it's the US government. But I think we just need to point out what it is. And the dynamic here is one where calling something strategic, you can call anything strategic. And that's in fact what the governments have, what governments anywhere have the ability to do to give themselves the access into sectors if they want it. And so look, we all recognize that. And I've said this before, the data is the new oil. So natural resources is where everyone in the world in the past had to fight and call strategic interests were first, we weren't letting the Chinese buy our oil companies. We're not going to let them buy our chip companies. So this is just the world we live in. But. But it is a different time. And this is along with mp. It is important to bring that up because the deals are very similar.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah. First mp, then. Then what? Copper, steel, you know, you name any other resource out there. Nuclear power, you know, first intel. And then what is there in video? Is there. You know, there's a lot of other so of roads you can go down if you want to.

[Eamon Javers]

Yeah, well, yes. And you know what I find really fascinating? Two weeks ago, and I'm a little hyperbolic, but Liputin was a Chinese operative, effectively.

[Melissa Lee]

Right. Selling technology to China, to a Chinese military academy.

[Eamon Javers]

And now you know, so it's amazing how quickly things change in today's world.

[Karen Feinerman]

All right, well, just one thing. Remember the talk of this US Sovereign wealth fund. Right, where I don't know where the money was exactly coming from, but maybe they're just sort of piecemealing the US Sovereign fund together.

[Melissa Lee]

True. And maybe there's another way of looking at it, too. Maybe intel is in more trouble than they are projecting and the US Government had to step in to help it along to make sure that it is not.

[Tim Seymour]

The big question is, does this solve the problems to that very point, does this solve the problems that the government that intel has had? Does this make them go from 15% market share above that they're equal to Broadcom and Nvidia owns market share?

[Melissa Lee]

Tim, you want to get in?

[Steve Grasso]

Well, just really quickly, let's not forget that Ohio is probably the most important state to win in our country right now. And Trump has won it and Republicans have won essentially the last three go rounds here. But if you think about where a lot of the uproar was coming on intel, when the point guy's referencing, you know, Bernie Moreno is someone that's been very supportive of President Trump. He's someone that's very politically savvy and somebody that is making a big deal out of what intel hasn't done to fulfill commitments in Ohio. Especially when intel says we might not be done with this till 2030. This is very much about Ohio. This is very much about politics. And it just is what it is.

[Melissa Lee]

Let's stick with the semi space here. An earnings alert on applied Material shares dropping despite a beat on the top and the bottom lines. CNBC's Christina Parsonnevolis is here with the details. Christina, much of this has to do with the outlook and just the drop in demand coming from China. So on the call that is still ongoing that the China revenues or China contributed roughly 35% to total revenues, that's going to drop to 29%. The CEO listed out, you know, three main facts as to why their outlook was less than what the street was anticipating. There was the weakness from China. They said that Chinese fabs were really ramping up spending in 23, 20, 24, not doing so much. Now the second factor which was interesting is that the export licenses, they have still not got those through the U.S. government. And they said, quote, that they assumed none of these licenses will issued in the next quarter. So that's a big sign for a lot of other chip makers that are going through the same problem waiting for the US Government. Think of all the paperwork. I know Nvidia is maybe getting a green light, maybe amd, but that's about it. And the third point was they brought up nonlinear demand. So let's just call it lumpy demand from leading edge customers. Most notably they don't call out tsmc. But the assumption is Taiwan Semi because Taiwan Semi was also mentioned in KLA's report that is a peer to Applied material. Seeing that there was some a little bit of weakness and then some rumors even more so in the past few weeks that TSMC is closing down some plants over there. More lagging edge and so that would weigh on these equipment manufacturers. But Applied Materials does have more exposure to China and the stock has really underperformed its peers KLA and LAM research just year to date thus far and even chips overall. Christina. Thank you Christina. Parts Nevelis.

[Eamon Javers]

Where'd you go with your record quarter in revenue? And the guide scares people. And now it's first of all, the stock has not traded well at all now for the last six months. Pull up a chart now we're getting towards levels that I think we got down to 125 or so in April. Bounced obviously but we're in the midpoint of that bounce. Valuation is never a concern here but the guide is scaring people and in this environment if you guide lower you're going to get punished.

[Karen Feinerman]

They should guide lower though.

[Melissa Lee]

Right?

[Karen Feinerman]

I mean there's a lot of big question marks here. So I mean maybe you know, in the coming days people think all right, well that's a worst case scenario. I don't know. I'm not. It's not my thing wouldn't be near it but I would if I were they I would have put out just that same kind of release.

[Tim Seymour]

Are we doing a. Would you rather because it feels like a little bit because I was prepared for. Would you rather so I didn't know there'd be homework.

[Melissa Lee]

I don't know what it would be versus K like I mean.

[Jason Helfstein]

No, no.

[Tim Seymour]

I mean it depends on where you want to go in the semi. Yeah, it depends on where you Walmart. I mean can't be campy versus Although I've been known anyway I've been known to do that I would go either micron where you're in danger of a little bit of a double top on the chart. But AMD is the natural competitor to Nvidia.

[Steve Grasso]

Nvidia.

[Tim Seymour]

It's Nvidia's world. Everyone else is just playing in it. I'd probably go with AMD even though it's outperformed thus far.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah. Meantime, wholesale prices coming in much hotter than expected in July with the headline Producer Price Index rising 9.10of a percent from the prior month. It was the biggest increase since July of 2022. For more on what it could mean for the Fed, let's bring in senior economics reporter Steve Liesman. Does it change anything? Did it change any of the probabilities?

[Steve Liesman]

It does. And it's kind of curious what happened after this. Hotter than expected wholesale price report Markets not so much. Rethinking September as rate cuts beyond September. I'll show you the data we're talking about up 0.9 on the headline fastest gain since the inflation of the pandemic. You take out food, energy and trade and services. The game was still a pretty robust 0.6jp morgan writing the fact that there is upward pressure across all recent inflation reports that is not directly attributable to tariff goods may give some officials pause. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalam he sounded like one of those officials with a little bit of pause inside of him saying the Fed is still balancing potential weakness and jobs and an inflation level running at 3 while the Fed has a 2% target. Despite the data, the futures market continues to price in a strong a confident 93% probability of a September rate cut. Now it's less sure about a second cut in October. That's kind of right around the toss of a coin level and it's below the toss of a coin level for December. Both of those have been pretty fairly priced in. So that's where the action was. Tune in to Squawk box tomorrow. We'll find out if Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee in an exclusive interview is on the pause or the cut side. The Fed and the market have got time for a meeting of the minds with the Fed expected Fed speak expected next week from Jackson Hole Another inflation and jobs report before the September meeting. So it's not a critical split right now.

[Melissa Lee]

Melissa but at least for now, it seems like the premise that perhaps inflation is okay right here and there's some weakness in the jobs report manifesting itself, but inflation may still come forward later on according to those probabilities. That's what it seems like the market's pricing in at this point.

[Steve Liesman]

I think that's right. If I could answer yes and put an asterisk next to it and tell you that the Jackson Hole conference is about the labor market and we have hardly begun to speak about changes in the labor market relative to immigration and the labor force. Fed Chair Powell talked a little bit about it. Mary Daly from San Francisco has Goolsbee has as well. You have a big changes happening with the labor force right now because of what's happening with immigration. That factors in as well. So the Fed has this moving target on the inflation side with tariffs. It also has a moving target on the labor side. And the question is, what is normal in an environment where you have the labor force not growing as much? It could be that 75,000 or 50,000 is the normal run rate. The Fed may feel, hey, that's what we should be doing if labor force isn't growing.

[Karen Feinerman]

Steve, it's Karen, thanks for being on. Does it matter really if they cut 25? I sort of think it sort of depends what Powell's, you know, is he dovish, is he hawkish? What is a 25 really matter?

[Steve Liesman]

I think that's right. I think the market is wondering how far and how long will the Fed remain above the neutral rate, which is somewhere in the three, three and a half percent range. You have Scott Besson, the Treasury secretary, saying The Fed has 150 to give and David Zervos on our one of the candidates for Fed chairs saying the Fed should do 50 come September because it's behind the curve. The Fed I'm pretty sure, doesn't feel that way. And it's really interesting right now where the individual comments, Karen, I think have to be listened to pretty carefully because we had Jeff Spit from Kansas City talk tough in terms of his willingness to cut rates, saying he's sort of more of a hold guy. I thought Musalam today was a little bit in the middle, but maybe leaning towards holding and we'll hear Goolsbee tomorrow. So it's a tough call right now. At the same time, have to give the news. Obviously, you know that Waller and Bowman, two Fed governors, they dissented in July. So Powell has his work cut out for him to try to balance these divergent views. They're in the market a bit, but they're also on the committee.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, Steve, thanks. Good to see you. Steve Liesman. Tim, your take on markets.

[Steve Grasso]

I think these numbers were not quite as devastating as the headline sounded or appeared. Excuse me. And if you strip out services were a big part of where the heat was. I know we're a services economy, but on the good side, if you strip out food and energy, we were at 0.3, which is where we've been. So. But I think the given all the rhetoric, giving all the angst, given all the concerns about the Fed as an institution and where are we in going into the Powell change and the new Fed governor. This is a number that based upon the Fed we've had from this point going in reverse, they would not be going in September with this ppi. I'm sorry. So again, I don't think this was a terrible number but the Fed we've had so far, I don't think moves on this number and that's what makes this number fascinating. The key is obviously I think straight down the barrel of labor and the employment number that we have the first week of September, that's going to make the call.

[Eamon Javers]

Tim's right to break down the number, but it's still the hottest pie I think since March of 2020. Two cores back above three and you have an administration calling for Treasury, Treasury Secretary Bess on 150 basis points, the President 300. It doesn't really make a lot of sense in my opinion given those numbers. But I'll say this, if you had told me last night what these numbers.

[Melissa Lee]

Are going to be.

[Eamon Javers]

We play that game.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah.

[Eamon Javers]

S and p is down 80 handles. 90 handles. No, I'm being honest. 10 year yields above 4.35 and nothing really happened.

[Tim Seymour]

This number is extremely volatile. Next month it'll trade lower. It'll be lower than it comes in at. But remember two weeks ago we thought we were in a recession because the jobs numbers were so awful. So these things change very quickly. I think he does cut in September and I think he cuts one more time in December. It's not going to be 50 basis points but it'll be 25.

[Melissa Lee]

Coming up, Berkshire buying in while the Oracle of Omaha is taking a stake and beating down UnitedHealth and the other updates from so called smart money. That is next. And offloading in the China trade. Big funds dumping mainland stocks. What it means for a few of our trader acronyms as BABA gets beaten down. Do not go anywhere. Fast money's back in two. Is it time to reimagine your future? The right business skills may make a difference in your career. At Capella University we offer a relevant education that's designed to focus on what you need to know in the business world. We'll teach professional skills to help you pursue your goals like business management, strategic planning and effective communication. And you can apply these skills right away. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at capella. Edu.

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[Melissa Lee]

Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of embattled UnitedHealth jumping after news. Berkshire Hathaway has taken a stake in the insurer. CNBC's Leslie Picker has the details on that and some other buys by Berkshire.

[Leslie Picker]

Leslie Hey, Melissa. Yeah, it was an interesting quarter. Berkshire Hathaway taking a new stake in UnitedHealth sending that beleaguered stock soaring in after hours trading up 8% right now. Warren Buffett's firm held about $1.57 billion worth of UnitedHealth as of the end of Q2. Appaloosa also making a big bet on UnitedHealth adding 2.3 million shares to hold 764 million worth now the firm's largest single stock position there. Michael Burry's scion also bought a lot of notional exposure to UnitedHealth worth over $100 million as of the quarter end. Berkshire Hathaway also revealing three mystery stocks that had been omitted from the Q1 filing due to special confidential treatment. This quarter we learned the firm took new stakes in steelmaker Nucor and homebuilder Dr. Horton and built a new class of shares in its peer Lennar. Those three stocks also higher in after hours trading along with UnitedHealth. Nucor up about 6%, Lennar up 4% and Dr. Horton up 3%. Just a reminder though, all of these positions are as of the end of June and may have changed in the six weeks since.

[Melissa Lee]

Melissa Leslie, I also want to ask you about Core Weave, which you've been following during the day, the lockup expiration. But you've also got some new reporting. The stock is down 3% after hours on top of the 15 and a half percent decline in regular session.

[Leslie Picker]

Yeah. So this is an interesting one, Melissa, because as we talked about earlier today, there was a lockup as of the end of the trading day today as of the aftermarket. So the fact that we see shares down 3%. I have a couple of inbounds saying that the blocks are out there for sale. They're looking at prices above where it's trading now at about $97. So we'll see how many of those hold at that price range. Usually with these block deals you see a discount because they're being done in a privately negotiated transaction. And if you do see a lot of these coming out at the same time, which is obviously the concern of the market, Those shares down 15% today, there's a concern that the discount will be there as well as the additional supply into the market. So usually people who are going to be onboarding those shares from a block will do so at a discount. So you can see those shares down 3% right now.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, Leslie, thank you. Leslie Picker, A lot to trade here. Where do you go?

[Tim Seymour]

Well Core Weave, if you have a problem, which I do with Nvidia having the bulk of their revenue coming from four different customers. Core weave 77% is coming from Microsoft and Nvidia. I can't buy a stock like that. Leaves too much open ended. It is for me.

[Melissa Lee]

All right. UnitedHealth is a very interesting it seems like the popular you know here in 30 planned.

[Karen Feinerman]

I mean I think actually the Appaloosa thing, well it took a leg higher when the Berkshire came out and then it took another leg higher when the Appaloosa one that was more of an aggressive bet. You think of Berkshire as much more long term and I wouldn't be this is it's a billion five is not chump change but it is to Berkshire. So I find that interesting though it probably good for all that whole space.

[Eamon Javers]

On July 28th I sat here and said because I think UNH reported on the 29th. I said given what's happened, given where it is, if they say something incrementally positive, it's a $325 stock which is still a blip but a decent move. Proceeded to say nothing good and I think it traded down to like 238 or something like that. Now here we are back at these levels again. They haven't said anything. Obviously nothing has changed. But you see people like this getting behind them. I think the bet is they'll get through this difficult patch. We can wrap our head around a lot of different things that they do and we're willing to sort of take some short term pain. So it should trade back to 325. On this news there's a lot more.

[Melissa Lee]

Fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.

[Tim Seymour]

China stocks get choked up. Shares of some of the country's biggest names dropping as major investors hit the sell button. Is there more downside of the names or is this a time to buy? Plus an advertising adjustment? Why shares of trade desk are getting hit yet again. And how to play the stock now. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.

[Melissa Lee]

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[Tim Seymour]

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[Melissa Lee]

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[Steve Grasso]

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[Tim Seymour]

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[Melissa Lee]

Welcome back to Fast Money. Some big funds bailing on China Recent filings showing the Saudi sovereign wealth fund PIF cutting its stake in Alibaba to zero while Bridgewater Associates sold all of its Chinese holdings, which included Baba, Baidu, Yum China and EV maker Nio. Tim Seymour, what do you think of those trades?

[Steve Grasso]

I think it's a great time to add when big players are selling and we've all just said that it's not necessarily a development that is in any way timely. But if I even just look at the stock chart because you know the fundamentals on Baba, I'll let other people speak. I know there's some other bulls on the desk. I'm very bullish, very bullish on valuation. I'm very bullish on the comps being very easy. I'm very bullish on Ali cloud. I'm very bullish on different parts of the business exposed to networking, excuse me, data center and some of that growth. But but more importantly in terms of the technical aspects of what those statements and those headlines look like when Tiger Global is running out the door there another one. I mean I just to me there was a fair amount of pressure on the stock in 2Q I feel like the price action over the last six weeks has been very strong and I think that chart reflects it. So this is a case where those negative headlines looking backward at 13 Fs is something that actually has me bullish.

[Karen Feinerman]

So a couple of things. One of the things that hit Alibaba today, I don't think the pie I think I agree with Tim. To me that's a non issue. The the sort of competitive position of delivery, the delivery space over there is really coming under pressure. That's what hit JD.com and so Alibaba is right in that space. So you've got to think there's some margin pressure there. To me, the most important holder in this area is Appaloosa, not PIF or Bridgewater. Right. None of that matters as much. So to me, him selling some now Grant has been a huge bet. He was, remember, buying everything, which he reiterated a number of times. And it's been a big run. But that so to me, I saw that I sold some because I think Appaloos is such an important sort of, I don't know, sentiment indicator.

[Melissa Lee]

Right. But importantly, you are still long.

[Karen Feinerman]

I am still long.

[Melissa Lee]

It is still the A.

[Karen Feinerman]

It is still in your. You think I would ever change the A? And is it the B? It's the. No, I would. Can we change. No, I am still on race. I had bought some more. I sold it.

[Melissa Lee]

All right. Coming up, another trip up for Trade Desk. What Wal Mart has to do with that stock's most recent drop today and the response from Trade Desk, the details when Fast MONEY returns. Welcome back to FAST money. Stocks closing off their lows as investors digested this morning's hot inflation report. The Dow and NASDAQ both fractionally lower. The S and P eking out a third day of gains, but just barely. Shares of Coindesk operator Bullish higher in its second day of trading. The crypto exchange up another 10% after its 83% surge in yesterday's debut. It is still lower than where it opened on Thursday. Major cryptos pulling back, though. Bitcoin, Etherium both hit records in early trade, but end of the day, lower. Solana also lower. Meanwhile, ad tech stock the Trade Desk tumbling again today on reports it could lose another big chunk of its business. The information reporting that the company's deal with its largest client, Wal Mart, is no longer exclusive. The report adds that Amazon is making major inroads with some of the Trade Desk other major clients, especially in the streaming space. The company just putting out a statement this hour denying the rumors, saying the Trade Desk and Walmart Connect are fully committed to the partnership and continue to innovate together. For more on what's next for the company, let's bring in Oppenheimer managing director of Internet Equity Research, Jason Helstein. He's got an outperform rating a $70 price target on the name. Jason, great to have you with us. Thanks. And you did cut the price target correct on the back of that 30% drop on the back of earnings.

[Jason Helfstein]

We did our price target 70 now, which would still be like 25, 26 times next year's cash flow. So still rich. But stock is 18 now. App Lovin, which kind of is the darling now. The sector is 26 and Roku is trading at about 21 times. So you know, MET is 15. So really the question is you sit here and you look at how much the stock's been hit and you say, could it go to 15? Yes, but it just feels like there's much more likelihood the stock will be back well over 20 after the next quarter.

[Melissa Lee]

There seems to be though, maybe it's a messaging problem. Let's say that you're right and the bullish thesis is still intact. You know, a lot of analysts walked away, a lot of investors walked away from that earnings call believing that management basically dismissed Amazon as a competitor when Amazon does seem like it would be a competitor in this space. So what are your thoughts on that? Do you think that the company should worry about Amazon and, and isn't. Do you think that the company is more likely to partner with Amazon? Where does Amazon play into its market?

[Jason Helfstein]

Sure. I mean the digital media space is quite enormous. Right? I mean, look, technically, you know, you know, meta, Google, these are all competitors, right. The real question is, is Amazon's dsp, right, which is one of their kind of, you know, three ad businesses, is that a direct competitor? I think they need to acknowledge a bit more the risk around certain categories like cpg. So they've said that auto and CPG is a third of their business. So let's just say half of that is CPG. So we're talking like maybe 15% of their business, 15, 70% that business is probably at risk because Amazon has great data on what cpg. Right. Consumers buy. But Amazon does not have great data on auto, they don't have great data on financials, they don't have great data on telecom, they don't have great data on travel. So ultimately I think there is some risk to Amazon, but I don't think the risk is significant. And I think there's just another point. It doesn't make sense to use multiple platforms. So trades is a demand side platform. You should use one, not multiple or you give up efficiencies if you do that.

[Eamon Javers]

Jason, I get the valuation is a problem in trade desk. I didn't think the quarter was a disaster. Maybe the guidance scared some people. But let me ask you this. If they can sort of implement AI and sort of re ratchet margins, new cfo, does this begin to look interesting again to you?

[Jason Helfstein]

I do, but I'm not sure, you know how much of it is going to be, let's say margin driven. I think this is really more sales focus. Right. Like you Just people focused on that 5.5 point decel in the second quarter and then kind of guiding for another 2 point decel. And again to your point there's been a number of management changes is not just the fo the head of their sales left I think they dismissed call it six weeks ago. They appointed a new CEO the end of last year. Never had a CEO before. So as we titled our note for the quarter, you know, not executing at peak levels. We think a good amount of this is self inflicted but really where you know they need to show more progress is with this new operating system they call it COCI and Coke is supposed to generate 20% better revenue for them but also better performance from their advertisers. So you ask like why did this Amazon, why did this Walmart news come out right? Some of it's like a pylon. I'm sure Wal Mart would like to pay less. You know is this, you know is there some negotiating going on in kind of rates and fees behind the scenes? Potentially but ultimately I don't think anyone has a better mousetrap in the market right now for brand 4 months which is really what it is. It's being able to measure brand advertising on the Internet.

[Melissa Lee]

Jason, thanks for joining us. Appreciate it.

[Jason Helfstein]

Thank you.

[Melissa Lee]

Jason Helfstein of Oppenheimer. Tim, what do you make? I mean that's an interesting point in terms of maybe they're negotiating. The report specifically mentioned Walmart doesn't like the fees that Trade Desk charges.

[Steve Grasso]

Yeah, yeah. And what Trade Desk reported in that, that release, you know just quoted something from Wal Mart back in June too. So I mean I assume the world's the same but you don't know. I think the space is wildly competitive and I think technology may be changing competitive advantages. I do think Trade Desk is, is the biggest and the most kind of uniquely positioned as being a player that, that is non biased and is seemingly looking to do the best on behalf of the advertiser. But I think the valuation is tough and I think the uncertainty remains. I'm not sure this is one you grab on. Not just some weakness, a lot of weakness.

[Tim Seymour]

When it sounds like a soap opera. You go to the charts and the charts look like low to mid-40s is where the support is on this. It sounds like a big move but when you look at the chart it's extremely choppy and those support levels go back about five years or so on a chart. So I would, I would wait and definitely if you're going to buy on a dip divided up into a couple of 20, 20% lots instead of jumping all in.

[Karen Feinerman]

I can't speak to the chart part, but that's interesting. I sort of agree with Tim. I mean, it is not cheap. It's not like, wow, they have really discounted this thing. It's crazy here. But I understand they're in a unique, you know, it's a, it is a great business. But at this valuation, I think it hasn't priced in. What I think is more headwinds to come.

[Melissa Lee]

Coming up, price hikes across the pond. While Eli Lilly is nearly tripling the cost of its weight loss drug in the UK as pressure from the Trump administration weighs in the pharma space. Do not go anywhere. That's when he's back into welcome back to Fast Money. Eli Lilly, the best performing stock in the S and P today, up nearly 4%. The company announcing it is raising the list price of its blockbuster diabetes drug Mounjaro in the UK President Trump has been pressuring Big Pharma to get US Drug prices more in line with the rest of the world most favored nation status. Let's bring in Dr. Kavita Patel, who's NBC News and MSNBC medical contributor. She served in the Office of Intergovernmental affairs and Public Engagement under President Obama. Dr. Patel, great to see you.

[Dr. Kavita Patel]

Thanks for having me.

[Melissa Lee]

Is this just the first in terms of the effort by Big Pharma to raise that price around the world to sort of narrow that gap between prices here and prices overseas?

[Dr. Kavita Patel]

Yeah, Melissa, I think you're seeing this. This was part of an act kind of issued by the administration in the form of a letter to 17 of the large manufacturers with Eli Lilly being upfront with an address letter to the CEO. So I think you can tell that Lilly doing this isn't shocking. And I think that we'll see more to come. I do think a lot of what's happening in the background is being able to leverage the trade off in price and this rebalancing in the UK and in the EU for also being able to guarantee that they can be at the table to negotiate some sort of demonstration or some sort of program around Medicare. Remember, the United States is their big market and having that share in both Medicare and Medicaid is everything for drugs like Manjaro. So this is important and I don't think they'll be the only one that we see.

[Steve Grasso]

Dr. Patel, it's Tim, always great to have you. And I guess let's shift the focus back to the Orpho news and the sense that this might have been their, their novo moment. What's the market's reaction here? Is it an overreaction? And again, it's really looking at long term kind of targets on, on revenues. In the short term, nothing really changes. I'm just trying to get your sense on was this an overreaction because there's even a sense that some of this GLP trade, because traders are looking at stocks that have almost nothing and now that Lilly's really kind of had their novo moment, that this trade's over.

[Melissa Lee]

Right.

[Dr. Kavita Patel]

I do think that the ORFO news look like even though that it wasn't quite what we had expected, expected it to be, it was still seen, interestingly enough by the clinical community as a win because it offers like an oral option. So I do think, you know, the way the stocks reacted on the release of that news, but now kind of combined and paired with at least Lilly signaling that they're going to do everything that they can to kind of keep the global market and to keep that in play. I do think that this is where I wouldn't have projected kind of the, you know, 4%. I wouldn't have kind of put it at that level of kind of opinion around how to expect that news out of the UK today, to be honest with you. So I think some of us are trying to understand is this really just about this rebalancing or is it a little bit of catch up on? Hey, now, there's been some positivity after orfo. There's some really like interesting momentum. There's this hype about the obesity AI deal. Could that be playing into part of it? Because AI is also having its moment in drug discovery. As much as I think that might pop at some point, this is still kind of the game that they're playing and Lilly is doing a great job of delivering on clinical results. And I think that's part of like what's catching up. But the markets, some markets are not necessarily responding on clinical data as I would have expected it to. So to me this is a signal that they're sitting at the table negotiating some, some like demonstration and doing something with Medicare and that's going to be big.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah. Just to get back to the ORFO data, Dr. Patel, the full readout is going to be next month and I'm wondering as a clinician, what are you going to be looking at specifically in that readout that might, you know, confirm your view that this was not a disappointment because the investment community takes a look at the weight loss numbers and also takes a look at the discontinuing race rates and they are disappointed.

[Dr. Kavita Patel]

They are. So I'm going to be looking at more details around kind of the discontinuation rate as well as kind of the side effects because remember, in the clinical realm everything that we're seeing are discontinuations largely because of either side effects and or costs. And so we haven't heard anything. We're not going to hear it next month either. Melissa around costs around the oral drug. So I don't expect that to come out. But I do think we're going to see much more detailed data around how the different and we also did hear a little bit about some of the differences in the cohort on the dosing and we saw that max dosing got you pretty darn close to the injectable. So I want to see the breakout by clinical groups. I'd want to see remember this is a group that did not have diabetes but they had other comorbidities. I'd be very interested in seeing if there's a pattern with some of those other comorbidities and then the detailed side effect profiles. Because if we can even see Melissa even incremental lower side effect profile, not the discontinuation rate, but even a slightly statistically significantly lower side effect profile with a drug like Mounjaro that's already had a decent side effect profile, that just makes it an even more compelling argument. And then again, the last remaining variable that we won't get is cost. But I think everyone's anticipating that the cost because of supply chain issues and how we make these drugs will not be as high as the injectable. But that remains to be seen.

[Melissa Lee]

Dr. Patel, great to see you. Thanks.

[Dr. Kavita Patel]

Thank you.

[Melissa Lee]

Dr. Kavita Patel. Coming up, harvests and handbags. The results weighing on shares of Deere and Tapestry. That's next. More fast money in two. Welcome back to Fast Money. Some morning earnings movers catching our attention. Let's start off with Tapestry. That stock dropping nearly 6, 16% the worst performer in the S and P today despite topping EPS and revenue expectations. The Coach and Kate Spade parent cutting its full year forecast citing an expected $160 million tariff hit. Steve, I'll go to you on this one.

[Tim Seymour]

Yeah, I'm not in it now. It seems like it seems like the Kate Spade is the problem. Coach is the luxury brand and Kate Spade is the everyday brand and is more ubiquitous. But I think at this point they spent so much money on that Capri takeover that didn't work out they hemorrhaged a little bit of cash and I think there's a reset moment for the stock now.

[Karen Feinerman]

So they have a good deal of specificity on what they thought the tariffs would be which I found interesting right now. I know they've probably diversified the way the supply chain have other. So. So it makes me think that number is really a very conservative number. This was a good quarter. Nobody's disputing that it was about the guidance. But that made me think okay, it's a bad case scenario.

[Eamon Javers]

Prior all time high was about 90ish. Then it sold off and then it was a rocket ship from basically I don't know. March on 90 should be support. Steve's right. I mean it's a coach story which is still a very strong story. I think you buy it at 90.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, let's get to Deere now. That stock also lower the heavy equipment maker trimming the top end of it its full year outlook as profits and sales fell in this fiscal third quarter citing weaker volumes and a challenging environment. Shares are down almost 7% here. Tim, did you think they're just being conservative on guidance?

[Steve Grasso]

I think they. They're often conservative and so that's fine. But. But shouldn't they be right to be somewhat conservative about the environment they're in? And so today's pie gives you kind of some sense also. I mean there's. There's significant inflation running through the system. It may not be passed on to the consumers yet. But it may be along the producer side where I think Deere really has more exposure. So what a great run though over the last say two to three years in Deere. And I think investors should be looking for an opportunity to add to weakness.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah. Your I notice was lower. Is that partially on. On this?

[Karen Feinerman]

I think so. Right. And just it had run so far so fast.

[Melissa Lee]

Mm.

[Eamon Javers]

For 35 if you go back and look was sort of this level couldn't get through for a couple of years. Tim's right. Since then it's been off to the races. Prior Resistance becomes support. 435 is your level up next.

[Melissa Lee]

Final trade. Time for the final trade. Let's go around the horn. Tim.

[Steve Grasso]

I got a happy birthday to my little guy Connor who just turned 12. He the Man United UnitedHealth Care 17 times. That's cheap.

[Melissa Lee]

Happy birthday Connor.

[Tim Seymour]

Steve, I usually like to stay away from IPOs and see how they settle out. But I like the stock bullish.

[Dr. Kavita Patel]

Karen.

[Melissa Lee]

Yes.

[Karen Feinerman]

Happy birthday. Connor sat right in that chair. Did a good little final trade. Remember that if we see a further further sell off in China, I would buy.

[Eamon Javers]

You know, you could tell the next two weeks it's going to be extraordinarily busy. I'm glad we're going to have your stewardship here to guide us through.

[Melissa Lee]

I'll be on vacation. See you after Labor Day.

[Eamon Javers]

You're gonna tell us when you have.

[Melissa Lee]

A fine right now. Final, Final.

[Eamon Javers]

I think Netflix turns all right.

[Melissa Lee]

Thanks for watching Fast Money. Mad Money with Jim Cramer starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries.

[Dr. Kavita Patel]

Warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.

[Melissa Lee]

To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer hey everybody, Conan O' Brien here with an ad about my podcast.

[Steve Grasso]

Conan O' Brien needs a friend. I've had so many fantastic conversations with people I truly admire people like Michelle Obama, Bruce Springsteen, Maya Rudolph, Tom Hanks. New episodes are out every Monday and.

[Eamon Javers]

We have a really good time, so.

[Steve Grasso]

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