← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
Markets Rally Ahead of Trump’s Iran Address… And Fading The Bounce 4/1/26
00:43:30
Stocks bounce as traders brace for President Trump’s address on Iran, but the uncertainty isn’t going away. Why one top macro investor isn’t believing the bounce and says it’s time for a “cash buffer.” Plus, the spring housing bummer as mortgage rates rise, Nike hits 10+ year lows after earnings, and SpaceX gears up to lift off. How the rocket company’s confidential filing for an IPO could set the stage for a record offering. Fast Money Disclaimer
Loading summary
Transcript207 lines
- [00:00]
Kelly Cavagnaro
Hi, I'm Kelly Cavagnaro, Managing Director, Head of North America Institutional Distribution at Janice Henderson Investors we believe working together is the way to work better. Like combining your portfolio plans and our in depth strategy, your valued assets and our valuable insights. Your mission and our vision working in harmony to seek the right investment opportunities. JANICE Henderson Investors Investing in a brighter
- [00:28]
Dell Commercial Narrator
Future Together Dell PCs with Intel inside are built for the moments you plan and the ones you don't. The times you're deep in your flow and can't be interrupted by an auto update. That's why Dell builds tech that adapts to you built with long lasting battery so you're not scrambling for an outlet and built in intelligence that makes updates around your schedule not in the middle of it. Find technology built for the way you work at Dell.com/Dell PCs built for you.
- [01:03]
Melissa Lee
Live in the NASDAQ marketsite in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Rally on markets higher for a second straight day. The NASDAQ now up over 4% just this week but with plenty uncertainty around the war still looming. Should you believe the bounce. And is there a spring thaw coming for the housing market while why the selling season is shaping up to be a rough one this year and whether buyers should expect any relief anytime soon. Plus, Nike swooshes to 12 year lows. Coinshares rough US debut and Lilly levitates shares surging as the company's obesity pill gets approval. But how does it stack up against the competition? We will lay out the landscape for weight loss. I'm Melissa Lee, come to you live from studio Be at the Nasdaq on the desk tonight, Carter Braxton Wirth, Karen Feiderman, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami. We start off the stocks keeping yesterday's momentum going into the new quarter, kicking off April with gains across the board. The markets did close off their best levels of the session and even with yesterday's rip, higher major indices are just back to where they were last week. One notable lagger today, energy, which dropped almost 4% as WTI crude slid below $100 a barrel. All this as investors await clarity. Hope for clarity, I should say, on the war in the Middle East. President Trump is set to deliver an update on the conflict tonight. Our Eamon Jabers is in Washington with the very latest.
- [02:17]
Eamon Javers
Eamon hey there, Melissa. What we know at this hour is that Iranian President Massoud Pezestquan has released an open letter to the American people on social media ahead of President Trump's address to the nation tonight. In it, the Iranian leader says Iran has never in its modern history chosen the path of aggression and never initiated a war. And he says that portraying Iran as a threat is the product of political and economic whims of the powerful who want to sustain the arms industry and control strategic markets. Meanwhile, in a speech tonight, a White House official tells CNBC the president will give an operational update on the progress of Operation Epic Fury, which they say is meeting or exceeding all of its benchmarks. The official also said the president will reiterate that two or three week timetable for concluding the operation. We, we heard him talking about that yesterday. We're expecting to hear more of that language tonight, Melissa, and expect a relatively tight speech. This is not a State of the Union, this is a national address to the nation. And negotiating that kind of time with the TV networks is always tricky. So they have to keep it tight. So we expect, you know, this is not going to go anywhere near an hour's time.
- [03:28]
Melissa Lee
Eamon. Thanks. Eamon Javers in Washington. So Guy, would you be an April fool to sell this? That's exactly what it says in the conquer and I think it's, it's pretty.
- [03:39]
Karen Feiderman
She went to you, Guy.
- [03:41]
Guy Adami
Well, of course she did.
- [03:42]
Melissa Lee
To sell the rally.
- [03:44]
Guy Adami
I think what's happening here, by the way, hello, Melissa. That's the great Michael Figueroa wrote that. Well done by him. So I think what's happening people have a pretty long memories and it was April of last year when the market sold off on the tariff concerns and a week or so later we'd gotten all back and we were off to the races. And I think there's maybe the thought out there that I don't want to make the same mistake twice. Last year I made a mistake of trying to fade it. I'm not going to do it now. I think the circumstances now are entirely different. Obviously last year it was around rhetoric that could be backed off. This year it's around something else. On top of which the problems that existed prior are still out there. So to answer your question specifically, yeah, with a 24 and a half Vix, I think you got to fade this last 200 point move in the S
- [04:26]
Dan Nathan
and P isn't crude kind of the tell here it's still in and around 100 bucks. That's WTI. And you know, the S and P was oversold card is going to tell us all about, you know, some of the kind of the internals of the equity markets here. You know, I think a lot of folks will say you've got to go back to some of the things that was ailing the market. The inability for the S&P 500ameaningful make a breakout above 7,000, establish a new range. We had a guest on last night who's really optimistic about S&P 500 earnings. He said the way in which we came in above expectations in 25, he's actually ratcheted up. Didn't he say that he's ratcheting up his EPS expectations? You could say with some of the valuation turns, we, with the market coming up and expectations for S&P 500 earnings going higher than maybe there is a little bit more valuation support than some would have said about a month ago or so when the war started. So I look at this and I say, you know, we've been in this sort of scenario where crude up, equities down. So yesterday we saw crude up, equities up meaningfully. So let's see what happens tonight because I think if there's no real new news, I suspect that you'll see crude oil stay bid in and around 100 bucks. And then as far as investors are concerned, you got to weigh how much clarity we're going to get about this, how much it starts to weigh on U.S. consumers, how much it starts to weigh on, you know, companies, their exposure overseas, that sort of thing. And what are the recession odds? Maybe not as much here, but overseas and how you start imputing that into S&P 500.
- [05:46]
Melissa Lee
I mean, we've been showing WTI, but Brent is still at 100 and barely moved in today's session, so not confirming what we saw in stocks. And I think the key tonight is whether or not the President is going to clarify the status of the Strait of Hormuz and how important it is to declaring the end to the Iran war. Because Iran makes statements like we're never going to open this straight up to enemy. I mean, the rhetoric seems to be going just past each other in terms of what is going on with the Strait and the intention there.
- [06:14]
Karen Feiderman
Yes. Which makes me think are they going to come to some agreements through back channels that. And hopefully there is some of that going on. It's sort of interesting. I mean, I like the bounce. That's nice. I'm long so that's helpful. But I don't know that anything has really changed at all. And, and it's sort of interesting to me that we now have this sort of shortened attention span where the President needs to feel like this he needs to at least convey this will be wrapped up in two or three weeks. That that's the time frame that we look at now and that's a really difficult time frame I think to do some very difficult maneuvers. So I don't know, I mean I hope that would be great, that would be great if that ended up being the case. What to do about the market, I don't know. I feel like you can't be all in long and you can't be all insured. I am always long so I hedge a little. But I'm going to get hurt if things end up being more protracted, which they very well may. And if not I hope that that's not the case. I hope we have a much quicker outcome but I'm not betting that way.
- [07:16]
Carter Braxton Worth
I mean, you know there's a case to be made and it's being made at the highest levels with the most astute research firms that one, it's over that we've had our bear and we know internally that's the case. One out of three stocks is more than 40% below respective 52 week high. That's well past the 20 so called measure. And we also know that the peak in the market was two months ago but more than half stocks had their own peaks six months ago. Microsoft for instance. So that it's been happening for us. So it's not because we bombed Iran once. They know, of course it is. But what about the whole. I think that was before that. What about the fact that we've got negative payrolls? What about the fact that there's a sort of problems in every area and so is it analogous to the swoon associated with tariffs? I would say no, that was really self inflicted and it was quickly reversed. This seems more structural, more issues and we've come from a higher level, higher valuation and it all adds up to my thinking that if you have to choose a side, I'm in the side that it has more downside.
- [08:15]
Julia Boorstin
All right.
- [08:16]
Melissa Lee
I mean this goes back to the whole thing that we were talking about before, even before the war. There are a lot of things that you might not like about the markets. You can, you can a laundry list of things whether it be AI or private credit valuations.
- [08:28]
Guy Adami
And the only reason we have not talked about them is what's been transpiring over the last five weeks. But they have not gone away in some cases. I mean listen, I understand that memory stocks have rallied over the last couple of days, I get it. But if you want sort of an indication as to what can go wrong. Just look at the move in Micron since their earnings release a week and a half or so ago. So that's sort of the other side of this thing. And all those concerns around private credit and delinquency rates and some credit issues out there, an unemployment rate that I think it's going to tick higher, inflation is still problematic. A new Fed chair coming in within the next couple of months, those are all still out there that have not been reconciled in any way, shape or form.
- [09:06]
Dan Nathan
It's one thing, you know, to compare this to a year ago. And I think we were all sitting on that desk that day when, you know, the tariffs were rolled out. And I just remember, oh my God, like people were aghast, like they could, you know, we could not believe. And it's not too frequently you'd see stocks move aggressively in response to earnings or other news. We saw the S and P futures, they just came off like hard. And they kept on coming off hard for like, what is it, a week and a half or something. We were down 20 some percent.
- [09:31]
Melissa Lee
The immediate pricing in of recession, I mean, it was staggering.
- [09:35]
Dan Nathan
And generally, I think throughout our careers, and not that, you know, we're rooting for wars, but oftentimes when you see bonds dropping, that's when the market kind of bottoms. And I think what's different about what's going on here is that, you know, this is all these deadlines. We learned this from the tariffs. They weren't great, but they kept on kicking the can down the road. And there was really no systemic risk, I think, to the economy and thus the markets. But right now, when you keep setting these deadlines and you keep pushing it out, that's actually more uncertainty and the damage that can be done in the interim is really a problem. And it just, it's not just about oil. It's not just about lng. It's about some of the countries that rely on, you know, 20% of the energy that goes through Hormuz. It's what they are doing there. And it's like you always use this expression like, what is it? Purchases.
- [10:19]
Karen Feiderman
What do you say when there's blood on the.
- [10:20]
Dan Nathan
No, no. You do the thing about delayed versus denied. And I think that the denied sort of stuff is going to be the thing that weighs on the global economy. And again, I'm not an economist, but it just seems like the longer this strait is closed, the more likely we are to see weakness globally.
- [10:35]
Melissa Lee
That's what's so shocking, I think about what we've seen in the market so far is that we saw such the quick repricing of the markets based on the fear of a recession brought on by tariffs. But with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz we did not have that same reaction by far.
- [10:49]
Karen Feiderman
It's very surprising to me. You know we often talk about the vix. We talk about the VIX all the time. I have been really surprised that we have not seen a VIX in when you look at some of the real shocks that we've had. So whether it was the pandemic, you know when that was I guess the biggest one in the last I don't know how many years but we've. We've had a few where things have traded much higher. The Vix has traded 40s, 50s even as much as the 80s. In the 80s it's flirted with 30 a little bit gotten a little bit over to me that I still think there's more to come.
- [11:23]
Carter Braxton Worth
And Karen actually someone on the buy side what do you make of the fact that in the past we have had if you were to do an AI search for the most incredible volume crushes of the past 40, 50 years. Two of them have occurred. Three of them occurred in the last five years Covid then a crush involved silver and oil and has risk management gotten so much better? Where are the blowups? It used to be that hedge fund's gone, they're dead. Oh they got killed. Is it gotten better do you think as an industry or is this just yet to happen?
- [11:54]
Karen Feiderman
I just think it buy the dip is so ingrained now that there's a whole generation of investors that are just you know every time there's anything it's a chance to buy. Yeah, that's my explanation for it. I don't know if you have a different one.
- [12:08]
Carter Braxton Worth
No, I don't know because it's quite remarkable that with that kind of in even here with oil up and then the where was the blew up last night? You used to have it all the time.
- [12:17]
Melissa Lee
Right.
- [12:18]
Carter Braxton Worth
And there are no blobs. So has risk management gotten better or maybe something maybe maybe more than one thing.
- [12:23]
Dan Nathan
Well or maybe it's all about the orderly. Would you say the sell off from the recent highs you know has been pretty orderly. Not the market has like.
- [12:29]
Carter Braxton Worth
Yes. So I like people surgeon silver and the surgeon oil the collapse during COVID we were the futures have never been limit down except on election night 2016 that there weren't blow ups. It's. Yeah.
- [12:42]
Guy Adami
I thought Dan was opined.
- [12:44]
Dan Nathan
I'm just going to say it felt orderly. I think people were kind of hedged up, you know, and it's kind of weird and to your point about all the damage that had been done under the surface and therefore maybe on the industry level, it wasn't that.
- [12:55]
Guy Adami
I don't know. I think I'm going to keep looking. Please. Yeah.
- [12:58]
Melissa Lee
Meantime, the weather is getting a bit warmer, making way for a spring housing season. But buyers and sellers may be facing a rough market as mortgage rates rise to their highest level since August and mortgage demand dries up. Diana Oleks got the details on this. Hey, Diana.
- [13:14]
Diana Oleks
Hey, Melissa.
- [13:15]
Melissa Lee
Yeah.
- [13:15]
Diana Oleks
Mortgage rates did move a little bit lower to start this week as markets react to the most recent rhetoric on the Iran war. But last week the average rate on the 30 year fixed rose to the highest level since March August and that tanked. Total applications down 10% for the week. Refis were of course hit the hardest, down 17% for the week. They were 33% higher than the same week a year ago. But earlier this year when rates were lower, refinance demand was more than twice what it was a year ago. Now applications for a mortgage to buy a home dropped 3% for the week and they were just 1% higher than the same week one year ago. That 1% is significant. Why? Because this spring was forecast to be much better than last year and it is clearly not shaping up that way. Just ask the CEO of Restoration Hardware, which missed quarterly earnings estimates in a big way. On the analyst call today, Gary Friedman said we're compounding clutter from tariffs, global discord as a result of war and the most dire housing market in decades. Dire, he said. Now real estate agents I've been talking to for our next quarterly housing market survey, which is out next week, say both buyers and sellers are suddenly pulling out of the market. Melissa.
- [14:28]
Melissa Lee
I have noticed a lot of listings that have just gone off the market recently, Diana. So it's interesting to hear that that is confirmed. It's a trend.
- [14:37]
Karen Feiderman
It is.
- [14:38]
Melissa Lee
Yeah. Thank you. So Diana said it was supposed to be much better and here we are.
- [14:44]
Guy Adami
And here we are to be.
- [14:45]
Melissa Lee
Yeah.
- [14:45]
Guy Adami
So I think a lot of people be surprised pulpit DHI chart go back five years. This stock made its all time high. Not last week, not last month, in the fall of 2024. Think about that for a second. Think about the market's done and all the enthusiasm around homebuilders. There's a huge double top in Toll Brothers. Pulte Homes has been under pressure. I think you got to avoid these names. As much as people want to say it's about rates coming down and I get it, that would be helpful. It's about the labor market and what's going on on the ground. And you heard Diana just now, the comments out of Restoration Hardware. I mean, that's a cautionary tale. Melts.
- [15:18]
Melissa Lee
Mm.
- [15:19]
Karen Feiderman
Yeah. Restoration Hardware or Restoration.
- [15:22]
Melissa Lee
I mean, I mean, any of it.
- [15:25]
Karen Feiderman
You know, I think, let's see, this might be somewhat of a knee jerk reaction to. Okay, things have heated up in the last few weeks in the Middle East. Let's just see what happens and then maybe we'll, we'll be back out there. We'll list again or we'll look again. But now rates have moved.
- [15:39]
Melissa Lee
Right.
- [15:40]
Karen Feiderman
That, that is the most problematic thing that you can't get around.
- [15:43]
Carter Braxton Worth
Yeah, yeah. It's just not working. Right. I mean, at some point you make a wager and make a bet, make a judgment and at some point you have to either add to it or abandon it. And they're not working. Homebuilders, I would say get away.
- [15:57]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, Nike shares getting tripped up after last night's earnings and disappointing results out of the shoe giant. And whether there is any reason to be bullish now. Plus building up or for blast off SpaceX getting ready for what could be a record setting IPO. The valuation is targeting and how investors can get in on the action. That's straight ahead. Don't go anywhere. Fast money's back into.
- [16:20]
Fast Money Announcer
This is Fast Money with Melissa Lee right here on CNBC.
- [16:27]
LifeLock Representative
LifeLock, how can I help?
- [16:29]
Kelly Cavagnaro
The IRS said I filed my return, but I haven't.
- [16:32]
LifeLock Narrator
One in four tax paying Americans has paid the price of identity fraud.
- [16:35]
Melissa Lee
What do I do?
- [16:36]
LifeLock Representative
My refund though.
- [16:37]
Julia Boorstin
I'm freaking out.
- [16:38]
LifeLock Representative
Don't worry, I can fix this.
- [16:39]
LifeLock Narrator
LifeLock fixes identity theft, guaranteed and gets your money back with up to $3 million in coverage.
- [16:44]
Kelly Cavagnaro
I'm so relieved.
- [16:46]
LifeLock Narrator
No problem.
- [16:46]
LifeLock Representative
I'll be with you every step of the way.
- [16:48]
LifeLock Narrator
One in four was a fraud paying American. Not anymore. Save up to 40% your first year. Visit lifelock.com Specialoffer terms apply.
- [16:57]
Melissa Lee
What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before? I have no fear of failure.
- [17:03]
Julia Boorstin
Trailblazing women, changing the game.
- [17:06]
Angelica Peebles
One of my favorite pieces of advice. Think about what your boss's boss needs.
- [17:11]
Kelly Cavagnaro
Leadership can look in many, many different forms. It really does come down to just trusting yourself.
- [17:16]
Melissa Lee
Life is short and you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.
- [17:19]
Julia Boorstin
Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC changemakers and power players. New episodes every Tuesday, wherever you get your podcasts.
- [17:28]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to fast money. Nike sinking over 15% as weak guidance cast out on the sportswear giants turnaround. The company warning of declining sales for the rest of the year due to weakness in China, where revenues are expected to drop 20% this quarter alone. Shares now trading at their lowest level in almost 12 years. For more, Guggenheim senior Managing Director Simeon Siegel joins us on the fast line. He's got a buy rating and a $74 price target on Nike. Simeon, great to have you with us.
- [17:55]
LifeLock Representative
Good to be back. I like that pause on the price target comment that I caught you by surprise there.
- [18:00]
Melissa Lee
Well, no, I mean, I talked to analysts Yesterday. You had $120 price target on the stock. But 74 does seem much higher considering how the stock has traveled today. What, what are you seeing in terms of, you know, the, the progress that is making because Eliot Hill himself said the progress is much slower. But what are the sort of the one or two things that you're seeing that really make you hold on to that buy rating, make you hold on specifically to the $74 price target because so many of your brethren on the street have lowered that today?
- [18:31]
LifeLock Representative
Yeah. Well, they're a lot smarter than I am, so we can start from, from there. But so listen, I mean, you and I talk about this a lot more like I think there's a big distinction we need to make between what happened versus what they guided. And so you even started. I think you're exactly right. Their guidance is uninspiring. Their guidance is scary. And I think people are just sitting here with this, shame on me if you fool me so many times and you're just losing patience. I think the amount of times today talking to investors that I heard, we're just losing patience. Life's too short. We're playing whack a mole. That's become the theme because to your point, all of a sudden we're talking about China being down 20%. I think what's interesting about that is this quarter China was actually a lot better than people thought it was going to be. And that was this huge fear. Last quarter, you and I would have talked about being really worried that China is this kind of like endless black hole. And the reality is they put up still declines, but meaningfully less bad declines in China and they put up really good margins. And what's interesting there is that echoes the fact that a year ago when you and I talked about Nike, there was no chance North America revenues were going to grow and yet they're growing and they're growing nicely. And so I think what the narrative of the guidance is, oh my God, it's going to keep getting worse. The reality of what they've done is tariff notwithstanding. These results this quarter were actually signs of moving in the right direction. Obviously the stock doesn't show it because of that guidance and that's important and I think it makes a lot of sense. But if what we are seeing is that Elliot did turn around North America and now we're working through this China conversation, we're going to have to deal with emea, but he's putting these processes in place. That's where I think it could get interesting.
- [20:11]
Karen Feiderman
It's Karen, thanks for being on. I understand why they would maybe want to give guidance that's, you know, somewhat conservative, let's say. I would think everyone should. But this quarter though, it was the quarter that ended February 28, so none of this other stuff had happened yet. And China as well, they're really affected price of oil. So I'm wondering 77, how do you get there? Is it what's the multiple that you use to and the EPS you use to get there?
- [20:38]
LifeLock Representative
Yeah, absolutely. And so just to, to be fair, 77 went to 74. So give me those extra three bucks if we're going to go there. But I'm just, I'm just kidding. But this was very.
- [20:48]
Karen Feiderman
70.
- [20:50]
LifeLock Representative
There you go. We're playing with dollars here. So it's 30 times the number that we're looking at. But I would argue or I would, I would hope and maybe that's the, the point of kind of asking about holdings. So maybe it's the hope here that as we look at earnings power, I would hope that my number is too low. And so I think this idea of if China is conservative as they normally do, they normally guide low and then be maybe there's a conversation there to be had. If you're not getting credit for guiding low and blowing it out of the water, maybe don't guide as low. And that's a separate conversation. But right now on my published numbers that I look at, I'm looking at 30 times in line with historical and then you should push back on me and say, yeah, but they're not growing like they used to grow historically and I think that's very fair. And then what I would look at and say, okay, do I believe they're under earning as they now re embrace wholesale? Karen, you and I talked about a couple of years ago this as they went full force into D2C, wholesale is the higher margin business for them. And that's very hard for us to really think about because you think if there's a middle person, they're making money. And that was the whole pitch of going direct to consumer was eliminate the middle person, cut out the retailer in between, make their money. And what we have learned is you don't cut out the middle person, you become the middle person and the middle person doesn't make very much money. And so I think this notion of wholesale does give them distribution, but it also actually gives them the ability to regain that margin if we can get to Double digit margin. My 30 multiple looks lower because my earnings look higher. And so I very much understand this is not linear and this is not happening tomorrow. But I think as we look through that, what we are seeing is we're watching demand creation go up, we're watching overhead go down. And that's what Nike used to win with. They used to win because they had great product and they had marketing budgets that no one could compete with. When they pivoted to direct and had to spend a lot of money on operating overhead because direct costs money, they had to pull back on demand creation. They gave up not only on product but also on that marketing story. I think that's where as we look forward and again looking into next year, where we could start seeing this as being a lower number than it actually turns out to be. But that's why I was looking at the third quarter. What did they actually just do versus where's the guidance? Because the stock deserves to be where it is today based on that guidance. There's no questions asked about that. The question is whether the guidance proves conservative.
- [22:58]
Guy Adami
All right, here's a curveball for you, Simeon. I think in 2024, Bill Ackman bought like a quarter billion dollars worth of stock. That's as close to an activist, I think, as we've seen. I think he sold it out as well. I don't, I don't know what Phil Knight owns and controls. He can't be happy about this. Is this ripe in your opinion for an activist investor to step in?
- [23:18]
LifeLock Representative
So funny. I was having this conversation about three other companies under my coverage literally today because as you look at a lot of these retailers, there's a lot of things that people look at and you. And I would say you looks so obvious what we should change. It looks so obvious what to do. I don't know that I would say that for Nike because I hear you like it makes sense we're looking at the disappointing share price. But in terms of what you and I, let's say, would do differently, what would we do? We'd want to focus on product. We want to focus on making sure we're speaking to the customer. We'd again return, I would argue, to being willing and able to spend on marketing to create that moat that no one else could fight against. But first and foremost, what we would do is recognize that we gave up so much share to these emerging competitors by walking away from retail partners, from Dick Sporting this, from Foot Locker, from, from all of the wholesale partners, and we'd re embrace that. And that's the first thing Elliot did. And so I think when you think about a business that does 45 to $50 billion of footwear and apparel revenues, which is unheard of, there's no one who comes close to that. Like when Nike is losing, they are still winning. They start from zero every year and get to 45 plus billion dollars of revenue. I think to move that shift does take a lot of time. And that's why I think it feels like it's not the story. This isn't what they're saying, but it feels to me like what they're doing is they're triaging. Let's fix North America then let's fix China now, let's fix Emea and then we'll get to converse. Like, it feels like he's working his way down the road, but all we're seeing is this game of black and all.
- [24:42]
Melissa Lee
Simeon, great to speak with you. Thank you. Good to be back on Siegel of Guggenheim. All right, so are you patient with this?
- [24:50]
Karen Feiderman
No. Yeah, I sold it today. A couple of reasons. One, this was very, very disappointing. Two, I just, you know, you gained some objectivity from not owning it. And three, I'm going to take the tax loss. So I have in my calendar 31 days, whatever it is. May 4th is the first trading day I could buy it back. I'll relook at it, then maybe I'll feel differently. But in the meantime, it's sort of maximum frustration. Yeah, yeah.
- [25:16]
Melissa Lee
Along with a lot of other people there.
- [25:17]
Angelica Peebles
And loss.
- [25:18]
Melissa Lee
Yes.
- [25:18]
Karen Feiderman
So that may be the bottom, just to mark it.
- [25:22]
Melissa Lee
So we crossed well below 50. What's the outlook?
- [25:27]
Carter Braxton Worth
You have a breakout or a breakdown when you're sitting at 52 week highs or lows. This is the opposite of a breakout. It has broken down today on heavy volume, on news with a gap. It's usually, I mean, that's good technique. It's very hard to. There's nothing wrong with being wrong. It's staying wrong. We all have to at some point say, this is just not right. I'm in the wrong direction, go the other way. Selling something that's down, taking the loss, it's the way to do it. There is no technique known to saying it's cheap. It's gone down so much, I should buy it. And speaking of. And it's not about one man or one woman. The high on the street, there's a price target of 120.
- [26:02]
Melissa Lee
Yeah.
- [26:02]
Carter Braxton Worth
The low on the street, there's 23. How could one man or woman think the stock you could sell? Study the sneakers, study consumer trends. Disposable income better than it is, worse than Puma. And one person can say it's worth 120 and one could say it's worth 23. What the what, sir?
- [26:18]
Melissa Lee
Yeah, I agree.
- [26:19]
Dan Nathan
You know, Simeon said they're going to get to converse last. They're going to fix that last guy. What sort of innovation was it in the 50s when they introduced.
- [26:26]
Guy Adami
Well, I will tell you, Congress all star.
- [26:28]
Dan Nathan
That started Chuck Taylor.
- [26:30]
Guy Adami
Yeah, that was groundbreaking sneaker the canvas. Chuck E's we used to call them.
- [26:34]
Melissa Lee
Yeah.
- [26:34]
Michael Kintopoulos
Okay.
- [26:34]
Dan Nathan
Just checking. Yeah, I mean, like I'll add something
- [26:38]
Guy Adami
if you'd like, Melissa. I mean, I'm usually the one with the tomfoolery. But here's the good news. I think if there is traded about eight times normal volume today, which we haven't seen Nike trade over 100 million shares in quite some time, that to me speaks to at least the beginnings of capitulation. So maybe the end is somewhat near. Here in Nike, there's a lot more
- [26:57]
Melissa Lee
fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.
- [27:01]
Fast Money Announcer
Countdown to liftoff. SpaceX confidentially filing to go public. The banks lining up to get a piece of the ipo and just how big the rocket company's offering could be. Plus believe the market bounce. Why our next guest doubts the turnaround and how he's positioning for even more uncertainty to come. You're watching Fast MONEY live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.
- [27:34]
P
Avoiding your unfinished home projects because you're not sure where to start. Thumbtack knows homes, so you don't have to. Don't know the difference between matte paint finish and satin or what that clunking sound from your dryer is. With thumbtack, you don't have to be a home pro. You just have to hire one. You can hire top rated pros, see price estimates and read reviews all on the app. Download today.
- [27:54]
Melissa Lee
What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before? I have no fear of failure.
- [28:01]
Julia Boorstin
Trailblazing women changed one of my favorite pieces of advice.
- [28:05]
Angelica Peebles
Think about what your boss's boss needs.
- [28:08]
Kelly Cavagnaro
Leadership can look in many, many different forms. It really does come down to just trusting yourself.
- [28:13]
Melissa Lee
Life is short and you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.
- [28:17]
Julia Boorstin
Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players. New episodes every Tuesday, wherever you get your podcasts.
- [28:26]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. The countdown for NASA's Artemis 2 mission has begun. The rocket's set to launch from the Kennedy Space center in Florida in just about an carrying four astronauts on the trip around the moon. It would be the first time astronauts have returned to the vicinity of the moon in over 50 years. Meantime, Elon Musk, Space X, a partner to the Artemis missions, confidentially filed for ipo. For an IPO today, sources telling CNBC the rocket company is eyeing a potential valuation of over $1.75 trillion. This is according to Bloomberg, which would make it the sixth largest company in the country, bigger even than Tesla. They could be seeking to raise about $75 billion of that $1.75 trillion valuation. So it's a small slice of what is actually valued. What do you make of this?
- [29:12]
Dan Nathan
You know, I wonder what it means for Tesla actually, because if you were offering me a share of Tesla right here, like one and a half trillion dollars or a share of Space X At like one point, I don't know, 75 or something. I take special Space X every day of the week, you know, and I wonder what sort of focus that you know, Elon might place on Space X. You just mentioned Artemis. I mean they are going to be a huge commercial partner of everything that NASA is doing. Starlink is a monster if you think about X. I have no idea what's going on there, but they put what, a $250 billion valuation or something? That anthropic is probably 400 I'm sure if you want to give the little pixie dust for the space stuff and anything like that, you know, you probably could find your way to trillion and a half dollars.
- [29:53]
Guy Adami
Tesla made its all time high I think in December. It's gone from basically 500 down to the current levels now. So maybe in some weird way this move in Tesla to the downside, which we haven't talked about now in weeks, is maybe some precursor to this IPO and maybe you buy Tesla on the actual event. Maybe that's the setup here to be long Tesla on the back of the space X.
- [30:15]
Melissa Lee
So you think that the test that Tesla has been the ATM for this?
- [30:19]
Guy Adami
I don't think other mag centers I don't think that's unreasonable think that so
- [30:24]
Karen Feiderman
it's interesting how big the private deals are now and I love that this was confidentially right that they whispered to Bloomberg. Every single person knows. So this is this. Okay. 75 billion is actually not that much. When you put in the context of what open air just raised at $120 billion and you had anthropic raised decent race but nowhere near that. I think it could be interesting. I don't know if you had that same question would you rather I'd rather space then Tesla at this if that is the valuation one and a quarter.
- [30:59]
Melissa Lee
Yeah. How does that Tesla chart look to you?
- [31:02]
Carter Braxton Worth
Pair of twos for me.
- [31:03]
Melissa Lee
Oh, okay.
- [31:03]
Carter Braxton Worth
Yeah.
- [31:04]
Guy Adami
Wait a sec. Were we playing the would you rather game?
- [31:06]
Melissa Lee
No. But Karen is a lot.
- [31:07]
Guy Adami
I understand this.
- [31:08]
Michael Kintopoulos
You didn't even play.
- [31:09]
Guy Adami
You didn't even flinch.
- [31:10]
Melissa Lee
I don't. I give her dispensation. Coming up. Stocks surging again as investor optimism for an end to the Iran war continues to grow. But our next guest says the market rally may have already gotten ahead of itself. While he is calling the bounce premature and what he is doing instead. Fast Money's back into.
- [31:29]
Fast Money Announcer
Missed a moment of fast. Catch us anytime on the go Follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.
- [31:42]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks continuing their bounce to start the new month and quarter. The Dow jumping more than 200 points. The S&P up nearly three quarters of a percent and the Nasdaq climbing more than a percent. Crypto asset manager CoinShares making its US debut on the Nasdaq today via SPAC. Shares dropping nearly 22% in its first day as bitcoin and the broader crypto trade continue to struggle. Bitcoin trading below $70,000. Raymond James upgrading Disney to an outperform rating. Analysts there establishing a price target of $115, saying they believe the stock remains historically cheap. Take a Look at Microsoft down 2.10of a percent, the only member of the Mag 7 in the red today. The stock is down down 23% already this year. We don't want to pick on Microsoft, but really the stock performance has been terrible of late on a day when the markets were up, you know, in the NASDAQ in particular. For it to be down sort of no bound.
- [32:33]
Guy Adami
I mean it's had a couple bounces but the bounces have been short lived. I mean this is another stock made its all time high in the fall of last year. I mean look at what the tape has done over just the last couple of days. And Microsoft, you think you'd see a relief rally or not? So again I understand it's part of software that is not loved right now but Microsoft might be one of the five most important companies in the world and is not traded well now for quite some time.
- [32:55]
Carter Braxton Worth
And a direct overlay to Oracle, I mean two very prominent names that cannot catch a bounce and then the two other very prominent names that were sort of seeing something all along. Semis up, up, up. But Vago and Nvidia dead flat 6 months. These are issues.
- [33:10]
Melissa Lee
All right, our next guest suggests we are in the midst of midst of a premature market rally. Michael Kintopoulos is head of multiasset Macro Investing at Janice Henderson Investors.
- [33:20]
LifeLock Representative
Right.
- [33:21]
Melissa Lee
Michael, welcome.
- [33:22]
Michael Kintopoulos
Thank you.
- [33:22]
Melissa Lee
Congratulations.
- [33:24]
Guy Adami
Come on.
- [33:24]
Melissa Lee
All right, official today, Congratulations by Janice Henderson. So congratulations. Nice new title too.
- [33:32]
Michael Kintopoulos
Thank you.
- [33:33]
Melissa Lee
Why is this rally premature?
- [33:35]
Michael Kintopoulos
Well, I think, listen, there's a ton of uncertainty still out there, most importantly around inflation with oil prices being higher. I think what we saw is in April of last year you really had a bottoming of core pce. And you know, since then inflation has been trending higher. The economy was quite strong going into this war. You saw ISM prices paid today was through the roof and oil prices are certainly not helping. And so I think inflation is going to be elevated for some time. Investors aren't giving that enough due rates probably need to go higher and that should suck out some liquidity from the market.
- [34:08]
Melissa Lee
Walk us through why you think inflation will stick. Because I feel like that is the out of consensus view and that most people think that this is a shock and that when the war is over things will go back to normal and inflation levels will return to what they were prior. So why, why do you have that view?
- [34:23]
Michael Kintopoulos
Well, I do think that's a possibility. But even if you went oil went back down to the 60s or 70s, you're still going to be well above 2% on inflation. And you were going into the war. And I think people forget that, you know, we'd had, we didn't think the Fed was going to cut going into March. We think if things go back to the way they were, they're still not going to cut. The economy is quite strong. Earnings growth is pretty strong. Inflation doesn't seem to be trending towards 2%, certainly not the inflation the Fed cares about. And so there's a chance that oil does go back down. You see headline come down a little bit from, you know, the 4% estimates or whatever some of the economists out there are saying today. But it's hard to envision where you get to 2% without a real growth shock.
- [35:08]
Karen Feiderman
So if, let's say Warsh becomes the new chair and there's some resolution with what's happening in the Middle east, do you think it would only be labor that would get the Fed to cut or does worsh cut no matter what?
- [35:24]
Michael Kintopoulos
Well, I think there's what should happen and what will happen. I think if worse cuts in labor doesn't weaken materially, that's going to be a mistake. And I think the markets are going to punish the Fed pretty meaningfully in that case. And the bond vigilantes are going to come out and you're going to see much higher rates. You saw that last year, two years ago, in 2024 when the Fed cut 50, rates went higher. You saw really since they've cut this go around, rates have gone generally higher. And I think if they were to do it again given current growth levels and inflation rates are going higher. So I do think, I think labor is most likely going to be the fulcrum that determines whether or not the Fed cuts. But obviously if there's, you know, if there's some intervention from the administration, then you could have a mistake.
- [36:10]
Guy Adami
What a much higher rates look like. 4 and a half, 4 and 5% in a 10 year.
- [36:15]
Michael Kintopoulos
Yeah, I think it depends on really two things. One of if the Fed cuts in the context of, you know, three and a half, 4% inflation, I think you can go well north of 5%. If you kind of go back to where we were pre war and you're just hovering around 3, 3.2%, something in that neighborhood. 4.5%, 4 and 3 quarters. I think that's probably where you could settle out. So it's higher from here. I think on the rate side it's just a matter of to what degree.
- [36:41]
Melissa Lee
So with this backdrop you say raise cash.
- [36:44]
Michael Kintopoulos
Yeah, so we're raising cash.
- [36:45]
Melissa Lee
That's a bunker trade. Michael, what's that? That sounds like a bunker trade.
- [36:48]
Michael Kintopoulos
I wouldn't necessarily say it's a bunker trade. For me, a bunker trade would be shifting our entire portfolio to Staples, health care, utilities, really defensive positioning. We actually maintained a, I wouldn't necessarily say a pro cyclical stance. But we stayed, you know, overweight emerging markets, overweight, international overweight, industrials and energy and materials in the US on an equity only basis. But in our balanced portfolio, we did raise cash to account for uncertainty. Uncertainty. And if the world goes back to where it was, those, those international plays, emerging markets, industrials, the broadening that we saw going into March will carry our portfolio forward. But if obviously the bottom falls out and you have a big growth shock, we'll be happy we had some cash, too.
- [37:34]
Melissa Lee
Michael, great to see you. Thank you.
- [37:35]
Michael Kintopoulos
Likewise.
- [37:36]
Melissa Lee
Michael Kintopoulos of Janus Henderson. Coming up, which one's the easiest pill to swallow? The pros and cons of farmers oral obesity drugs. After the long awaited approval of Lilly's latest offering, what it means for were the biggest players in the space when Fast MONEY returns. Welcome back to fast money. Eli Lilly rising almost 4% after the FDA greenlit its weight loss pill Fundeo. It is the second GLP1 pill to hit the market following Novo Nordisk launch of oral Wegovy earlier this year. For more on how the drugs stack up to one another, let's get to Angelica Peebles. Angelica.
- [38:13]
Angelica Peebles
Hey, Melissa. Well, Lilly will launch Foundao just three months behind Novo's Wegovy pill. And Foundao isn't as effective. It delivered about 12% weight loss at the highest dose on average in a phase three trial. And in a separate trial, the Wegovy pill showed around 17% weight loss. Now, both of those are less than Lilly's weekly shot Zepbound, which has consistently produced more than 20% of weight loss in studies. And both of those pills will cost about the same for people paying out of pocket. They'll both start at about $149. And the highest dose of Lilly's pill is $50 more a month than Novo's. And where Lilly thinks that it has the edge is convenience and accessibility. Foundeo can be taken at any time of day and at the same time as other medicines, whereas Novo's pill needs to be taken first thing in the morning on an empty stomach. That's one thing that doctors say could be an inconvenience. And Lilly can make more of its pill since it's a small molecule. And Lilly says that it'll be able to supply more than 40 markets where it's gonna expecting approval over the next year. And international sales are expected to play a major role in foundao, reaching the $15 billion that analysts expect by 2030. Now, back in the U.S. i do want to talk about another company we're watching. That's Chilera Therapeutics, they're seeking to go public and this is a company that's backed by well known biotech investors like Bain and Atlas. And they built this company by licensing experimental obesity drugs from China's hungry. So that's one to keep an eye on. Melbourne.
- [39:36]
Karen Feiderman
Yep.
- [39:36]
Melissa Lee
And then they're Structured Therapeutics, of course. Angelica. Thank you. Angelica Peebles. So there could potentially be other competitors that we don't. We're not, you know, in the market soon between GPCR and perhaps Kyler's is by the way still experimental.
- [39:51]
Guy Adami
With each passing day, you know, in the boardrooms are saying we got to get in the game. How do we get in the game? We have to make an acquisition. What's the acquisition? Structured Therapeutics is one. Viking is another one we've talked about. They have an oral. So these. We rarely say things like that, but I think it's almost a foregone conclusion that those two names at some point get acquired this year.
- [40:11]
Carter Braxton Worth
Yeah.
- [40:12]
Karen Feiderman
Yes. It's the, it's the gene might be dang right? No, I agree with everything Guy saying. That's why I own it. It's just. Let me back up one second though. It's interesting to me that differential in weight loss between those two drugs and yet the expectation is really that Novo, that Lilly's drug is going to do a lot better. Yeah, it shouldn't, but I don't know. Novo, you know, that's the other another N in my bedang ng which now stands for no good. But I think structured therapeutics $2 billion market cap right now. Now you are going to have to eat some additional expenses as they can hopefully get to a place where they have a drug to sell. But it just seems like this is an enormous opportunity. That is not a lot of money for a big cap farmer or even a medium cap farmer.
- [41:02]
Melissa Lee
6 billion or something that I'm thinking
- [41:03]
Karen Feiderman
just threw that out there of, you know, that wouldn't be a ton. And the whole enterprise value now is 2 billion.
- [41:10]
Carter Braxton Worth
I mean the real question for Lilly of course is that you could not have a bigger run up over the past eight, 10 years and then yet its relative performance to the market peaked 18 months ago. It is still below where it was in the autumn of 2024. So is it all priced in or is much of it priced in and is this sideways grinding for the better part of two years reflecting that? That's my hunch. Pair of twos for me.
- [41:31]
Melissa Lee
A pair of twos on Lilly coming up. They are more than great coats. Why the chartmaster says shares of specialty retailer Burlington are heading higher from here. And here's a sneak peek at the Kramer Cam. Jim is chatting exclusively with the CEO of research and analytics firm Semi Analysis. This Catch the full interview. Top of the hour on Mad Money. More Fast Money into. Welcome back to Fast Money shares. A specialty retailer Burlington up 14 and a half percent this year. And the Chartmaster says the stock has more room to run. So Carter Braxton Worth, what do you see?
- [42:09]
Carter Braxton Worth
Get right to it. So three charts, they're all identical. This one has no lines, no drawings, no judgments. But the first thing that jumps out surely is relative performance. Stock market's down 10%. A lot of retailers from Gap to others struggling. Macy's in this at or near 52 week highs. Toying with the breakout. Second of three charts. One way to draw the lines. That's the prospective breakout. I've got a nice arrow here and I think that's what's coming. A breakout indeed. Third and final chart. Just another way to draw the lines. These are subjective. It's what my eye sees. Others might see something different. But again I think the clear setup here is a stock that is exhibiting bullish price volume correlation, impressive relative strength. Toying with the prospects of a breakout to new 52 week highs.
- [42:57]
Melissa Lee
All right, Carter, why don't you walk back here?
- [42:59]
Guy Adami
We're back.
- [43:00]
Dan Nathan
Walk and talk.
- [43:00]
Karen Feiderman
Swagger.
- [43:01]
Michael Kintopoulos
Swagger on back.
- [43:02]
Melissa Lee
I mean if you overlay the fundamentals,
- [43:04]
Guy Adami
how do we do that with the cameras that make Edama Steadicam? Wow, that's a great job.
- [43:10]
Melissa Lee
Only we can take a picture of the steady. Anyway, so here's what my consumer seeking bargain.
- [43:15]
Guy Adami
Yes. And TJ Maxx has been a monster. While we talk about these names, if our crackstaff and he can give us now a five year chart. You will see, Carter, because I know you know this. We're up against the levels we saw in the summer of 2021. So the potential for a breakout is clear. There's also a potential for a massive double top in this thing.
- [43:36]
Carter Braxton Worth
Indeed. No, that's, that's exactly right. And one another one has been raw. Stores break out. So I think this goes the way of the others.
- [43:44]
Dan Nathan
Yeah, I think you want to stay away from consumer discretionary right now.
- [43:47]
Melissa Lee
All of it.
- [43:47]
Dan Nathan
Yeah.
- [43:47]
Melissa Lee
Well, did you just see him chart? Was that not.
- [43:49]
Guy Adami
I saw it.
- [43:50]
Dan Nathan
It was amazing. But now we talk about this K Shape thing and guys brought this up. You know, the American Express has gotten killed. The cof has gotten killed. It just seems like a weird place to be with the consumer right now.
- [44:00]
Melissa Lee
Visa was a 52 week low today.
- [44:02]
Guy Adami
See NASCAR and Visa both when they
- [44:04]
Michael Kintopoulos
made their all time high Us I'm long tjx.
- [44:07]
Karen Feiderman
It's not that different than that story. It's all time high today. Sticking with it. It's not cheap though.
- [44:13]
Melissa Lee
Did you notice visa at a 52 week?
- [44:15]
Guy Adami
We did not. Dan and I talk, we all talk it very.
- [44:18]
Dan Nathan
I guess the point you say is no credit risk there but it's like consumer transactions transaction volume and compression fees
- [44:25]
Melissa Lee
and stuff and international transactions in particular. All right, up next, final trades. It is time now for the final trade. Let's go around the horn. Carter Braxton Worth gotta go with Burlington for the breakout. Karen Feinerman Yes, I am always long,
- [44:50]
Karen Feiderman
which I say, but I am also always now long some S and P puts on some protection.
- [44:56]
Dan Nathan
Dan Nathan yeah, yesterday final trade, I thought you might see a capitulation in Nike. It did not happen. It got really bad. I'm looking to the upside here. Maybe some calls.
- [45:05]
Melissa Lee
I don't know. Don't forget, by the way, President Trump addressing the nation. 9:00pm Three hours. Yeah.
- [45:13]
Guy Adami
About the Passover.
- [45:14]
Melissa Lee
It is Passover as well, right?
- [45:17]
Guy Adami
Yes. We have some time to kill here.
- [45:19]
Dan Nathan
Oh yeah.
- [45:20]
Guy Adami
We can just sort of ramble on a bit. Yeah, well, the Mets lost for you Met fans out there. I'm sorry if they're meandering at.500 with which get used to it because that's going to be how they finish the season. Tim Seymour is watching right now. Yankees in Seattle, Mel winning I think 4 zip. Not giving up a lot of runs early in the season. And my final trade for you is Viking Therapeutics. Looking forward to seeing you tomorrow night.
- [45:41]
Melissa Lee
Melissa on Fast Money I will not be here. Happy Passover to all of you who celebrate. Thank you for watching. Fast Mad Money starts right now.
- [45:51]
Julia Boorstin
All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer LifeLock how can I help?
- [46:24]
Kelly Cavagnaro
The IRS said I filed my return, but I haven't.
- [46:27]
LifeLock Narrator
One in four tax paying Americans has paid the price of identity fraud.
- [46:31]
Kelly Cavagnaro
What do I do?
- [46:31]
LifeLock Representative
My refund though.
- [46:32]
Julia Boorstin
I'm freaking out.
- [46:33]
LifeLock Representative
Don't worry. I can fix this.
- [46:35]
LifeLock Narrator
LifeLock fixes identity theft guaranteed and gets your money back with up to $3 million in coverage.
- [46:40]
Kelly Cavagnaro
I'm so relieved.
- [46:41]
LifeLock Narrator
No problem.
- [46:41]
LifeLock Representative
I'll be with you every step of the way.
- [46:43]
LifeLock Narrator
One in four was a fraud paying American. Not anymore. Save up to 40% your first year. Visit lifelock.com Specialoffer terms apply.