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CNBC's "Fast Money"
Markets Rebound After Monday’s Drop… And Netflix Streams Higher 4/22/25
00:48:31
Stocks ripping on Wall Street, as markets bounce back after Monday’s sell-off. The sectors seeing the biggest jumps, and how Tesla results are moving the stock. Plus Netflix shrugging off this year’s tariff concerns, jumping nearly 20% as the s&p 500 heads in the other direction. What the move could mean for the markets next move, and why one top tech analyst is calling the streaming giant “highly recessionary resistant”. Fast Money Disclaimer
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- [00:02]
Melissa Lee
As America's leading business lender, bank of.
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Guy Adami
America is on your corner and in your corner.
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Dan Nathan
With $215 billion in business loans and over 3,700 business specialists across the nation, we help businesses thrive so communities prosper. What would you like the power to do? Learn more@bankofamerica.com LOCALBUSINESS bank of America Official bank of FIFA Club World Cup 2025 Copyright 2025 bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved. Hey Fidelity, what's it cost to invest with the Fidelity app? Start with as little as $1 with.
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Guy Adami
No account fees or trade commissions on.
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Dan Nathan
U.S. stocks and ETFs.
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Tim Seymour
Hmm.
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Dan Nathan
That's music to my ears.
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Guy Adami
I can only talk investing involved risk, including your surplus. Zero account fees apply to retail brokerage accounts. Only $0 commission applies to online US equity trades and ETFs and Retail Fidelity accounts Sell order assessment fee not included some account types and securities excluded. Details@fidelity.com Commission Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC Member.
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Tim Seymour
NYSE SIBC Live from the NASDAQ markets.
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Dan Nathan
Right in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. A disappointing quarter at Tesla top and bottom line missed with auto revenues dropping 20%. But claims that cheaper EVs are still on track seem to be keeping the stock from dropping. Philibo standing by with the very latest plus streaming higher and higher. Netflix shares continuing their post earnings surge. Could this record breaking move help fuel animal spirits across other parts of the market? Will debate that and later Amazon, the latest MAG7 name to signal a data center slowdown. Big deal or not, the Chartmaster is here to break down the latest move in gold and a major defense contractor on the defensive after earnings. I'm Melissa Lee county live from Studio B at the Nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, bottom and Ice and Dan Nathan and Guy Adami. We'll get to Tesla's after hours move in just a moment. But first a major market rebound on Wall Street. The S and P jumping 2 1/2% today, closing just off its highs of the session. The benchmark index more than recouping yesterday's losses now marginally for the week. The do also recovering from Monday's sell off adding more than 1,000 points while the tech heavy NASDAQ rose 2.7%. Those two indices snapping a four day losing streak. But all the major averages still deeply in the red so far in April pacing for their third monthly loss in a row and volatility while well off its highs of the year still well above trend. So is today's bounce just a bit of a buy the dip moment or can we expect more sustained strength? Guy?
- [02:25]
Karen Finerman
Yeah, I don't know if it's a buy the dip moment. I think it's sort of the chase moment when the VIX is still north of 30 despite today's rally. It suggests that, you know, these rallies are going to be sort of exaggerated and the sell offs will be the same. So I think today is exactly that. I think it's what you get in a 30 Vix environment. I don't think we're getting out of this 30 Vix environment anytime soon. I think it will continue to go up and I think rallies and we've said this can be short lived. Nothing changed from yesterday until today other than the fact that the market went up.
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Dan Nathan
Yeah, I mean we had those comments from Scott Bessant, the Treasury Secretary made behind closed doors at an investor summit saying essentially that the trade embargo between China and the US should end shortly or to that effect that it's unsustainable to have this sort of standoff go on for much longer, which was seen as very positive. And we did see the reaction. The ground was in play, was laid for some sort of a bounce. But that really fueled us.
- [03:16]
Tim Seymour
Well, I think about the pragmatism of any negotiation. I mean both parties have places they want to go and both parties have tended to overreach before. They at least begin to get in the trenches and negotiate as, as you know, folks in the diplomatic corps will always say, you know, it's better when you're talking than not talking at all, even if you're yelling at each other. And I think that's, that's kind of where markets are. What's interesting from the markets perspective is the stuff that really outperformed today. There were some of the more oversold names which obviously had disproportionate bounces. But semiconductors were not the place where you really saw outperformance. And if I look at the SMH or I look at the stocks, I can see was up about 210 basis points and I can see that the S and P was up two and a half. And as we talk about the other 493 stocks outside of the MAG7, they're the ones that first of all, if you look at your portfolio folks, those are the ones that have actually hung in there. Okay, so today was a day I think we were just oversold. I agree with guys call on both what you get within this type of a market environment and a Vix at 30. I just think sentiment is so poor, so so many people have switched to recession as the base case and as we're having and we'll have more of during earnings season and I bet even tonight what is that multiple for the S and P? I bet it's a lot lower than what you've known for the last few years.
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Dan Nathan
Tim mentioned Semi is underperforming the markets, underperforming the NAS NASDAQ 100 Nvidia also underperforming Sammy's which is a. I think.
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Brett Winton
People are full up on these names if they haven't been selling so far. I think the fundamental stories are not particularly great. I think we're going to talk a little bit about Amazon and some of the digestion that we're seeing on the Capex spending. Obviously that's a problem for Nvidia but if you're seeing Capex spend being cut by Amazon and Microsoft and Google, that means that there's probably not a lot of demand for the, for the products and the services that they're trying to roll out right now. You know, I'll just say this about the market. Yes, sentimentally bad. I mean it's really hard to find. I said this last night to too many comments out there that could really kind of make you feel better about, you know, suggesting that this trade war is going to be done sooner than expected. But today's rally, two and a half percent getting back yesterday, it's not particularly impressive. And if you look at the chart, the S&P 500, it looks like a blip in the sort of volatility bands that we've been in. I guess I'd focus more on the fact that the 10 year US treasury yield is at 4.4%. It basically hasn't budged. The US dollar, which is more oversold than probably any other risk asset on the planet, barely bounced today, you know what I mean? So those are the things that I'd probably focus on. And without much reaction to the commentary we heard out of Besson and those two, I'm not feeling so confident.
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Tim Seymour
Silver lining what you're saying.
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Dan Nathan
I was speaking of silver gold making a new high, I mean which goes into that sell America trade by gold here.
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Melissa Lee
Yeah, I think the price action in gold is somewhat indicative of where, you know, the overlooked retail investor actually feels about things. I mean I do think you're starting to see a flight to quality or a continued flight to quality on both the retail and the institutional side. And to Dan's point about these names being over owned or full I think is a term that he used. People being full on these names, you know, without that retail presence really stepping in to buy dips, because they are the people that are going to be able to kind of move at a moment's notice them and fast money hedge funds, not, not to kind of, I mean to give a nod to the show as well, but you know, your fast money type of players that are going to be able to be in and out of names. But before you start to see real type of large institutional pivoting in two names, I think, you know, we do need to see that VIX pullback and you know, the rate story and old story is somewhat concerning. Tim has mentioned it several times. I've mentioned it. I think Guy Dan, I think we all kind of have the credit spread widening also doesn't give a lot of confidence in terms of deploying investment dollars when you're starting to see at least, you know, some whispers about, you know, widening out or some concerns around there. You know, I would continue to look at the earnings season. I do think so much headline risk, so much macro risk does at least offer this earnings season an opportunity to kind of allow us to find some light in the darkness in terms of really understand how profitable these companies are, how they're going to guide and what that means in terms of multiples going forward.
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Dan Nathan
It is though amazing to think about the market reaction to what Besson said because Besson also said that they had not actually started talking to China. So he's making all these predictions about not being sustainable and it won't be very long. You know, progress will be made. But there has not been any conversation yet and the markets are willing to grab onto those words and rally, which you can understand.
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Karen Finerman
Tim said it when everybody just said it. When you're in this type of environment, it's going to be sometimes sell first, ask questions later. Today was buy first. I'll say this as well. Another, you talk about fascinating things. Dollar yen very quietly dipped below 140 today. It rebounded, closed above 141. But we've been putting that out for quite some time. And that's the lowest levels in the dollar versus the yen we have seen since August of last year. I think we all remember what happened. It's sort of getting, I guess shaded away or people not focus on it because everything else out there. But again, it's a problem, folks.
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Dan Nathan
All right, let's get to Tesla now, earnings alert here. The company missing top and bottom line estimates the earnings call gets underway in less than 30 minutes. CNBC's Philippeau has been following the action, Phil, and they're not giving guidance with a revisit in Q2.
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Phil LeBeau
Oh, this will be a fun conference call. You know, Melissa, we usually expect these calls to be interesting. I think this one gets a little more attention than usual given the fact that the first quarter results, we knew they were going to be ugly. You mentioned automotive revenue being down 20%. Look at these numbers. And they did miss on the top and the bottom, the top and the bottom line by a pretty good amount here, earning 27 cents a share. Street was expecting 39 cents. Look at revenue. Almost $2 billion shy of expectations. Free cash flow did come in better than expected. As you mentioned, Melissa, the company has said that it will revisit its full year guidance when it gives its Q2 update. So we'll get that sometime here in the next several weeks. Until then, we have to wait and see what happens next. We do know the company is saying that it does plan on new model production, including lower priced models to start in the second quarter. That's production. That doesn't mean sales. And keep in mind we haven't seen what those lower priced models, those new models might be. As you take a look at shares of Tesla over the last three months, the company does say that it has sufficient cash to fund the products that it's planning on building. There had been some question on the street about whether or not Tesla needs some type of a capital raise. Well, they put that to bed by saying they have sufficient cash on hand. Don't forget the conference call as you mentioned, Melissa starts in about what, 15, 20 minutes. And if Elon's on, everybody's going to have a number of questions they want answered. AI, AV Robotics. What's happening with his commitment to the Trump administration? Let's see how many of those we actually get answers to.
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Dan Nathan
Yep, will be interesting. Phil, thanks. Keep us posted on that call. Phil LeBeau. And again, the conference call gets underway in just about 21 minutes time. Phil was talking about cash on hand. $37 billion as of the end of the quarter. So that's a lot of cash. The question is, can they stem the declines that we've already seen in the first quarter when it comes to sales in places like China, where they're facing very stiff competition. In Germany, which where sales have really slid.
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Karen Finerman
Lowest quarter, lowest quarterly revenue in four years, 2.1% operating margins. You can Back things out and you can say, you know what, there's some things to like here. There's nothing to like here. I think one of the reasons the stock isn't lower is because as Mel said before the show, a lot of this was sort of expected in terms of, you know, what was a lot of the people on the street were talking about. But even with all that said, it's, there's really not a lot to like right now in this name.
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Brett Winton
Yeah, yeah, I'll just say, I mean, listen, there's nothing to like here. And if you think about, I think it's more about the rest of this year and Phil just told us about like production of a lower end tv. I mean they've absolutely miscalculated the direction of pricing globally, not just here in the us. And you think about the advantage now with BYD taking over, you know, overtaking them in deliveries in China. And they have many cars that are a much, much lower price point. So if you're not going to get below $20,000 in China, they may never gain back that market share. And then when you think about what you just mentioned, you know, whether it's Europe, whether it's here, I think the natural buyer of an EV going forward is probably been repelled a little bit by the CEO of this company. So if you're waiting for an announcement that Musk is leaving Doge and coming back full time to Tesla, and by the way, not full time at Tesla, he's got Space Link, he's got Xi.
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Dan Nathan
But it was the way it was before.
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Brett Winton
Correct, but I'm not sure that's such a benefit because he has really just basically said we're not doing hybrids. They pushed out a low end EV for a robotaxi, which is not going to come for years. And like, so I think they might be mispositioned in almost every major market that they're in right now.
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Tim Seymour
Well, and I would also just say that a lot of this weakness that we've seen in the company, especially in terms of deliveries, is not something that just started when he was in Dosh. So I mean, you know, that's a headline that probably some shareholders want to see, others actually might want to see something different. But, but either way I think you're talking about ex government credits margins, possibly sub 10% and that's something that ultimately is a big concern. And, and I get back to where we were, I think it was two quarters ago where they really surprised on some metrics or maybe it was three quarters ago. I Don't know, but it was probably right before elections, the quarter before elections. But we went from a story where expectations had been set for at least the first 3/4 or almost all of 25 to be rough and that the street was kind of pricing that in. And I think then we got kind of ahead of ourselves. The reality is the reset here for 25 and into 26 can't be good, even in a world where Tesla does so much better than their competitors in terms of the impact of tariffs. Although they did say today that actually the supply chain for them is something where they see actually meaningful headwinds from the global tariff plan.
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Melissa Lee
I'm going to channel my inner Dan here and try to find a silver lining.
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Brett Winton
Thank you.
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Melissa Lee
You know, in the story, you guys.
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Tim Seymour
Are both so good at that.
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Karen Finerman
Yeah.
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Melissa Lee
You know, I was looking up the short interest and trying to say perhaps, you know, shorts are kind of leaning in this name. You're not really seeing that short interest pop that you've seen in, you know, in video and Apple and some of the other names. What I will say if terror still seem to be the predominant scaring factor in the market and I would say relatively speaking, there is some insulation there and then you have so much negative sentiment going in. I do think if you were to make some proclamation likely, I mean, the shares given the quarter that they just announced, I understand that we were expecting this. I still think operating margins were expected to be around 5% and they came in about half of that. So I think the fact that you're not seeing the stock get absolutely crushed here at least means that there is a cohort of investors that are just waiting on with bated Beth for there to be some type of announcement that that allows them to buy into the shares here.
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Dan Nathan
All right, for more on Tesla, let's bring in Brett Winton, Ark Invest chief futurist. Tesla is the firm's top holding. Brett, great to speak with you.
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Guy Adami
Great to speak with you.
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Dan Nathan
Tesla's about 12% of the portfolio. I'm wondering, I mean, I understand that you're a long term investor. You really, you want to see the Robotaxi story explained a little bit more. The lower production, lower cost vehicle, etc. Does the automotive business right now, right here, right now have to work in order for those future bets to pay off?
- [14:14]
Guy Adami
Well, I love to hear the skepticism amongst the panel here because nobody mentioned the most important data point, which is they reaffirmed the launch of Robo Taxi in June in Austin. And the way to think about this, the Automotive business is important because you need to deliver units into the market which they already have millions in play, that will become prospective Robotaxis as they software update the vehicles. The entire business model of this company is going to transform as and if Robotaxi launches, where you go from a one time sale of the vehicle, as the panelists mentioned at low margin, to generating ongoing revenue off of every vehicle in fleet over time. And it just transforms the business. So the marginally important news is can they launch and can they scale that business successfully? We think the evidence is in play that they can given the acceleration in AI. And we think that delivering incremental vehicles into the market, you know, for now, is good to build up that base that will become Robo Taxis and in the future that will become the Robotaxi capability will be a demand driver for their production. They're actually going to be production constrained again to a material extent in our view, once Robotaxi begins to scale across the U.S. right.
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Brett Winton
So Brett, you love to hear the skepticism, I love to hear the optimism. Because as a futurist, it just seems like pie in the sky sort of stuff. I mean, and I mean that sincerely because you've been following this company, you've been invested in this company for a long time and when have they ever hit any of the targets that you suggest? And by the way, you need to make this transition. And Mel started off asking the question, they have never had their core business so bad, it's never been this bad. And if it continues to get worse in a protracted trade war, you're just not going to have the ability to invest in Robo Taxi and Optimus, whatever the hell crap that you guys think is going to happen at some point. So I'm just curious how you think of that because you are the futurist and I guess maybe I sound a little cynical.
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Guy Adami
Well one, I think you're wrong that their business has never been in worse shape. If you look at their share of overall vehicle sales, they're roughly flat. Trailing 12 month vehicle sales, they're roughly flat. As they deliver a lower cost vehicle, they should be able to sell more units and just on the kind of demand elasticity curve. And as they continue to drive down production costs, I think they'll deliver less costly vehicles to the market and those vehicles will be utilized more. The fundamental case is when you buy a new car, you're basically buying a bundle of miles at like 75 cents a mile. If you could have somebody drive you around for a dollar a mile, that's a great deal and everybody will take that. And so once robot taxis in the market, then they, they become a point to point transportation provider rather than just a seller of hardware assets. And it just transforms the business model and begins to spin off cash flow to Optimus and to continue to fund the data center. So we don't see any cash flow issue for the business at all in terms of their ability to fund, you know, ongoing capex and R and D operations.
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Dan Nathan
We're just about out of time. But in order for me to understand your bet on the Robotaxi, I have to understand what you think the Robotaxi business will look like. Because it seems like there are barriers that Tesla cannot control when it comes to, you know, regulate local laws regarding self driving vehicles, what sort of platform it will use to interface with potential people who want to take robo taxi rides. I just don't understand how this actually will operate.
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Guy Adami
Well, Waymo is operating today and the only reason they're not at larger scale is they don't have enough hardware assets. Way most great. I ride it in L A all the time. I would trust my kids in a Waymo, whereas I wouldn't in an Uber. Tesla has a benefit against Waymo in that they're going to be able to deliver a less costly hardware asset which will determine their price per mile they're able to charge. Waymo is still charging Uber like prices and they have an abundance of assets. So you won't have to wait 10 or 15 minutes to get a Tesla Robotaxi. It'll be available immediately. We think Tesla is going to launch their own app that people will download and use in competition with Uber and Lyft and that individual owners will be incentivized to put their vehicle into the fleet to make a few extra bucks on the car that they already own. And that's how Tesla will complete its network, whereas Waymo has to partner with the likes of Uber to do so. So Waymo's already basically cut down the wheat in the regulatory pathway and we think they're going to launch Texas and California this year. Those are two very big states so they'll have a lot of ability to scale within those and probably multiple states over the course of the next few years.
- [18:59]
Dan Nathan
All right, Brett, it's always interesting to get your view. Thanks so much for joining us tonight, by the way, sticking around for the rest of the hour. So we'll get his take also on, on the conference call, which is going to get underway shortly.
- [19:09]
Tim Seymour
Well, look, I think Brett does A really nice job of also spelling out for people who have wondered for years what more you are paying for for an auto company that's really just a car company. And so the conversation here around Robotaxi, the presumption now is that this is a $640 billion company. So I just heard that. I think that the hardware business, the auto business, the core business, who cares about margins, really worth anything, that it's really all about robo. So we're paying on the come 640 billion. This is after a massive drawdown in the stock for a business that's not producing revenue. And it will get back to ultimately even if it is just that exciting of a business who's paying that for this business right now? Still unproven. That's where I always been with Tesla. It's not that the cars aren't selling, it's not that the biggest EV player in the world, they're out in front but not forever.
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Melissa Lee
You know, I tend to agree again I'm just going to push back slightly here and also point out the fact that these stocks aren't just simply discounted free cash flows. Unfortunately there's like a large aspect of sentiment, whether it be fear or greed, that plays into where these stock prices can go. And I just think the counter argument is that there has been a long standing cohort of people that are, that are willing to pay this premium, that are not, you know, really entrenched in fundamental research and really don't care and that do believe the quote unquote gospel that this, this is going to be a transformative type of thing. So while you know, I, you know, I was a proponent of buying it at 220 and paying for a bounce, I think you've gotten that and you've, and you've started to see the stock really pull back there. I don't, I think if it doesn't hold to 20, I think you're really in for concerns. With that said, I would really kind of caution against establishing a short position in an over in a very beaten down name when you do have a section of people that are going to be willing to pay regardless of what the multiple of place.
- [20:56]
Dan Nathan
The sentiment aspect is something that we did not touch on with Brett the Futurist. I don't know if he can predict what the brand will be like in the future, but right now there has been some brand damage and you have to wonder whether that will impact people's willingness or desire to take a robo taxi. I mean at height valuations that was when Elon Musk had the halo effect, when it was thought that if he left the company, it would be the worst thing in the world for the company.
- [21:20]
Karen Finerman
I don't know how to answer that. I mean the brand damage, without question. But the other side of the coin is people are dug in more than ever on the other side of that. So maybe I'm not saying it offsets each other, but I think it's somewhat mitigated more than people realize.
- [21:31]
Dan Nathan
We've got a news alert on potential changes to COVID vaccine recommendations. Angelica Peebles Got the details. Angelica Melissa Politico was reporting that HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Is considering removing the COVID 19 vaccine from the childhood immunization schedule. So that would basically take away that recommendation for children. Now Politico is citing two people familiar with the discussions and quotes an HHS spokesperson saying that no decision has been made at this point, but obviously something that we're going to keep our eye on. Melissa Angelica, thank you. Angelica Peebles. Coming up, primed for problems how Amazon is navigating the trade war and the multiple risks facing the E commerce giant amid tariff uncertainties. Those details next. And speaking of tariffs, Swiss drugmaker Roach holdings looking to avoid just that. Their latest plans on coming stateside and how much it could actually impact the space. Don't go anywhere Fast money's back in two. Our state has changed a lot in the last 140 years. We know because Multicare has been here guided by a single making our communities healthier.
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Guy Adami
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Dan Nathan
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Guy Adami
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Dan Nathan
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Guy Adami
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Dan Nathan
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- [25:53]
Brett Winton
Yeah, I mean listen, you know they had that huge bump in Capex. Investors did not like that when they reported Q4, right. And the stock really has been down 30% almost in a straight line over the last two and a half, three months or so. And so I think that. I think investors might cheer the fact of the pullback, you know, we were talking, you know, a few months ago, is that, you know, these guys are going to ask, you know, for forgiveness rather than permission to do this. And I think now that they're faced with these headwinds about tariffs, it's not just about their, obviously their main products that they're selling, but it's also the uptake of the services in aws. And now for the situation like Amazon, it's also this advertising business which has really fueled a lot of margin for them over the last few years.
- [26:31]
Karen Finerman
What do we say about our staff and EC Crack?
- [26:33]
Dan Nathan
Crack. Crack meaning good? No, in case people might be wondering what crack? No, no, like top. The top, top notch.
- [26:44]
Karen Finerman
So they could pull up a chart the last year, let's say. And you will see that Amazon just recently traded down to the lows we saw in August of last year. So that held like a boss, as Dan would say, as, as Kate just said, the report next Thursday, which amazingly is May, that sets up for a trade in earnings on the long side, without question, given where we held.
- [27:04]
Dan Nathan
We've got some breaking news out of the Oval Office. President Trump just making some comments about Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Let's listen to what he had to say whatsoever.
- [27:14]
Tim Seymour
Never did the press runs away with.
- [27:17]
Dan Nathan
Things Now, I have no intention of firing him.
- [27:19]
Tim Seymour
I would like to see him be a little more active in terms of his idea to lower interest rates.
- [27:26]
Guy Adami
This is a perfect time to lower interest rates.
- [27:30]
Tim Seymour
If he doesn't, is it the end?
- [27:31]
Dan Nathan
No, it's not. But it would be good timing.
- [27:34]
Melissa Lee
It would be.
- [27:35]
Guy Adami
It could have taken place earlier, but.
- [27:37]
Dan Nathan
No, I have no intention to fire him.
- [27:39]
H
Last time you talked.
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Dan Nathan
I don't want to comment on that. That doesn't matter.
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Melissa Lee
Mr. President, you said, when do we expect the FC.
- [27:48]
Dan Nathan
So after all that talk about whether he would use. He's examining whether or not to fire. He said he has no intention of firing Powell and that's arguably what caused yesterday's pullback. The worry that we would be destabilizing the central bank, that there'd be some questions about our credibility in the world, that we'd become like Turkey if we fired Jerome Powell. But here he is saying, nope, no plans.
- [28:09]
Karen Finerman
Well, fortunately, somebody got in his ear, I mean, the two texts, whatever, a couple days ago, I think over the weekend, you know, his terminate. And I'm paraphrasing, please don't at me. But something the effect of his termination can't come fast enough. Now, I don't know if that was meant to be as his leaving date in May of 2026 or his actual termination, I don't know. But he definitely threw it out there. Fortunately, I think somebody probably said, you know, it's probably not going to be a great thing, want to ratchet back a little bit. And that is a stabilizing thing.
- [28:37]
Dan Nathan
By the way, we're looking at the after hours action in the spy, the S&P 500 ETF higher by a percentage. Nasdaq 100 also higher by just about a percent in the after hours on the back of these comments. So again, being viewed very positively here.
- [28:50]
Tim Seymour
Look, the great headlines. The great headlines. And clarifying that the Federal Reserve is left alone is, is a great thing by President Trump. And I think it's a dynamic for markets that I'm not so sure yesterday's tail off was, was Powell related? I do think if you look at the dollar and you look at treasury markets, they kind of had a greater impact here. But, but ultimately my sense is, and if you read strategists, economists and market pundits everywhere, I don't think anyone was really expecting Powell to be fired. So I think market weakness is for reasons related to people worried about recession, priced into stocks.
- [29:25]
Brett Winton
Yeah, I'll just push back at that. I mean, Kevin Hassett, his economic adviser in the White House, said they were studying whether to do it. And I don't know why you would trust this back and forth. We've seen this. You know, he blinked on the tariff stuff. It doesn't mean that they're going to do anything any differently. So, so just wait. May 7th. This is going to be fireworks, man. If they don't say the sorts of things that you expect into it, I think he's going to turn it right back up.
- [29:44]
Dan Nathan
By the way, there's some comments also about China. He says that I think we'll make a deal with China. He also has told reporters that he'd be very nice in negotiations with Beijing and that tariffs on imports from the country would fall significantly following a deal, but not to zero. So also some positive comments regarding trade, specifically with China, which would be a very important development for the markets here.
- [30:07]
Melissa Lee
I'm just blown away. You know, if I had told you that the United States, the United States stock market would rally because there was a reaffirmation that we were going to maintain an independent Federal Reserve, I don't even know how to wrap my mind around that. I just think the fact that this.
- [30:25]
Tim Seymour
Did you know we were going to be potentially restructuring the US economy to re industrialize after 150 years. Years.
- [30:30]
Melissa Lee
I mean, fair enough. But I, but I think, I think this gets at like the very lifeblood of what makes capital markets and why there is, you know, why the United States is, why the USD is a reserve currency, why there is so much faith in, in government bonds, etc. So it just kind of blows my mind. And for me it just speaks to the fact that I do think you should continue to see volatile trading. You're going to look to look to pick your spots, entry and extra points. But the fact that this is actually a trade trading catalyst is a bit worrisome. And I think it's something that you should take into consideration as you're sizing your positions and when you're allocating capital.
- [31:05]
Dan Nathan
The comments we've been talking to happening in the Oval Office. Just moments ago, Eamonn Javors was in the Oval Office. He joined us now with the full report. Amen.
- [31:13]
H
Yeah, Melissa, that's right. I happened to be in the Oval Office with some reporters talking to President Trump at an event where he was swearing in the new director of the sec. I was able to ask the President whether or not he intends to fire Jay Powell and whether he believes he has the power to fire Jay Powell. What he said was, I don't want to talk about that in terms of whether or not he has the power to fire Jay Powell, he said, because I have no intention of doing that, never did have any intention to do that. He said the press simply runs away with speculation sometimes. But the President here reaffirming the idea that he does not intend to fire the chairman of the Federal Reserve or to attempt to do that. That was one item that was interesting to me. He also answered a question on China in terms of the tariffs and whether or not he's concerned about the impact on west coast ports. The President said that ultimately he believes the tariffs are going to be good for the country overall. He was asked whether or not he's negotiating with the Chinese right now. He didn't provide any details or specifics about exactly where those negotiations stand. But I also asked him about tariff rates overall fall and the Treasury Secretary's comments earlier today that the tariff rates, as high as they are, amount to effectively an embargo on trade with China altogether. The President says he does agree with the Treasury Secretary that it is effectively an embargo with China right now. But he doesn't think that tariff rates are going to stay where they are right now. He said they're going to come down significantly. I asked him to what level. He said not to zero, but he implied sort of north of zero, but much lower than where they are now. So this is a president, Melissa, I've got to say, who seemed eager to send the kinds of signals to the stock market that the stock market wants to hear right now, wanted to be very conciliatory about the Fed and very much to indicate that he's in deal making mode with China.
- [32:56]
Dan Nathan
Melissa, what's interesting, Eamon, is what you said about the president saying that he wouldn't comment on the status of talks with China, although Secretary Bessen earlier in the day said that talks have not started. I'm wondering why there's, there's daylight between the two explanations.
- [33:11]
H
Well, reporters tried to press the president in the Oval Office just now on, you know, what updates can you give us? Have you talked to Xi Jinping? Have you had any meetings, you know, where are these discussions specifically? And the president just sort of kept going back to his argument that there is going to be a deal, things are going well with China. He has a great, he's confident in his relationship with Xi Jinping, but no real specifics in terms of where those negotiations stand, who's meeting with who, what dates the meetings are taking place, on whether there have been any offers exchanged, just the president asserting that he feels confident that there will be a deal here. I also asked him if he speaks, if he has spoken to or speaks regularly with Jay Powell. He declined to answer that question.
- [33:53]
Dan Nathan
All right, Eamonn, thank you so much. Eamon Javers from the White House at this hour. Again, we're looking at an after hours rally on, on top of the gains that we made in today's session on these comments regarding President Trump having no intention of firing Jerome Powell and also the positive comments he's making about China in terms of resolving the trade embargo that is in place right now.
- [34:13]
Karen Finerman
Yeah, all good. Maybe this will help the market to be a bit less squirrely and yippee the word. Huh?
- [34:19]
Brett Winton
Yippee.
- [34:20]
Karen Finerman
Well, squirrely is a good word as well.
- [34:21]
Brett Winton
That's what he used.
- [34:22]
Karen Finerman
Yippee, yippee, yips.
- [34:24]
Tim Seymour
Well, what's interesting also is again, if you think about those kinds of comments, China tariffs are going to come down. The idea of tariffs as a panacea for a deficit is something I've just struggled with. And so this is really getting you back to dollar friendly and rates friendly bond friendly type rhetoric that I think can still strike a balance between. Let's, let's level the playing field, let's get back what's ours, but let's not change how we actually raise revenue in this US Government. By the way, Amen was like right there, right there.
- [34:54]
Dan Nathan
I happened to be in the Oval.
- [34:56]
Brett Winton
Office when he made one last comment here. Is this a good negotiating tactic to tell your adversary to tell the folks that you're negotiating against what you're going to do? Because if you're China it might just embolden you. So the idea that we're going to get these kind of half assed sort of commentary back and forth this and that and that's going to cause these rallies or these sell offs, I just think that the risk is still to the downside until there is something materially coming out, not just these sorts of one off comments like this.
- [35:22]
Dan Nathan
By the way, in the after hours session again we're seeing the indices across the board rally by more than a percent apiece. We're also seeing shares of Tesla for a big China exposure. Obviously the conference call is going on just five minutes in but the China exposure aspect is sending it higher by 4%. Apple is up, Nvidia is up. This is fantastic news for the market bottle.
- [35:41]
Melissa Lee
And if true, if true, that's, that's the caveat and I think you need to go on ahead and stick, stick your hat in that one. You know we've just seen so much back and forth that I just not sure how much confidence you can put on anything that you're hearing At a moment's notice you might get a reversal of what was just said or some statement that contradicts what was said on or off record. I just think it makes for a tough trading environment. With that said, it presents opportunity and not one that one should shy away from necessarily but to just, just. I am still a bit more cautious. I'm definitely not pessimistic but I do think bear market rallies are a real thing and I do think you might want to look at names that you're a little bit too full on of where you don't necessarily see where they fit in your portfolio. Looking for opportunities to sell into these rallies and then allocate elsewhere.
- [36:28]
Dan Nathan
All right, we're going to take a quick break. Fast money. Be right back. Our state has changed a lot in the last 140 years. We know because Multicare has been here guided by a single making our communities healthier.
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Guy Adami
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Guy Adami
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Dan Nathan
Of $45 for 3 month plan equivalent to $15 per month required intro rate first 3 months only, then full price plan options available, taxes and fees extra. See full terms@mintmobile.com welcome back to Fast Money. Netflix hitting a new intraday record today, popping nearly 8% at its highs evercore. ISI has called the streaming stock highly recession resistant, but can it continue to its run higher? Let's bring in Mark Mahaney, the analyst behind that call. He is the firm's head of Internet research. Mark, always great to see you. Melissa, does this run concern you at all in terms of the speed of it?
- [38:01]
I
Sure. Yes, it does. I continue to like the stock. It's not one of my top picks, but I think there's still upside here, maybe, you know, low double digit, 10% upside. I think there are other stocks that are more attractive risk rewards here. But I think this, I'll stick with the point, which is I think this is one of the more recessionary resilient stocks you can find. And it's been tested. You know, we've been tracking this for whatever 25 years. And you know, you've seen Netflix hold up in in a lot of economic cycles and different types of cycles over time. So I think that'll be the case here. Also, you get a situation now where they've just hit record high operating margins. And my guess is that they're going to lean into content spend later this year as they really expand the bundle and get more and more into live sports and make the service more and more compelling. So I think it's recessionary resistant. I think valuations reasonable, not dramatically compelling, but reasonable. I continue to like the stock.
- [38:51]
Melissa Lee
Mark, you mentioned a lot of good things in terms of them being able to grow top and bottom line. You mentioned the multiple. I kind of want to dig in on the price of sales multiple at 11 times. Can you kind of give us a little bit of background in terms of where that tracks historically? And then where do you think is kind of like the equilibrium point in terms of where you can get comfortable in terms of the multiple that you're paying on revenue.
- [39:12]
I
Yeah, I don't typically look at it on price to sale. No one could. But the beauty of Netflix is how it's changed over the last couple of years is hey, we got free cash flow now like we got material amount of free cash flow. They're also buying back stock. They had a record amount of share buybacks this last quarter. Now I don't know if that's arrogance, stupidity or what because, or just a dramatic amount of confidence because they're buying all time amount of stock at an all time high on the stock. That's very bold. But I think they've got good reasons to be bold. I look at it on a PE basis price to earnings basis. It's expensive. It's trading at like 35 times earnings. That's at the upper end of where it really should trade. So I don't think you got a lot of multiple expansion from here but the stock can go higher because they're going to be giving you 25% earnings growth. And so that's how we can compound from here. So that's the P E multiples. What I would suggest you look at instead of the price to sales multiple.
- [40:04]
Tim Seymour
Hey Mahanes, it's Tim, that's Guy's nickname for you. But we love having you on And I guess I'm just curious, you know, I hear also Netflix has now signed on for their second live NFL game. And as a Netflix shareholder I'd be kind of disappointed if they went really hard at sports because I think the networks kind of fight each other over, over those costs. But the content slate while 18 billion they're producing so at such a, you know, I'd say efficient level. I'm just curious your thoughts on all of this. Like where do you want to see them spending on content? Do you want to see them more in sports? What do you think?
- [40:36]
I
Yeah, I guess at the end of the day I do. I want them to get more into live events and there can be special. They don't have to be. You don't have to, you know, get in there for big negotiations on major league rights. But there's smaller leagues you can get into perhaps and they're one off events. Maybe the Formula one races, something you can build stories around. I think that's great for, for Netflix but I think this is absolutely, Tim, I think this is where they're going. I think five years from now you're going to see more sports. And eventually you're going to see Major League Sports on Netflix. And I think their strategy is every year they're going to go from they're going to bump up that content spend by a billion and they're going to be able to outspend everybody out there. And they can do it because they've got far and away the largest audience, the largest audience on which to kind of amortize that spend. So for live sports, Netflix is coming for you. They may talk it down, but I think they're coming for you. And they're willing to buy right. Bigger checks than almost anybody else out there over time will be able to afford.
- [41:31]
Dan Nathan
Mark, great to speak with you. Thank you. Mark Mahan for isi. We got to get to Tesla, just hitting after hours highs, giving up 5% but up 4.5% still. Let's get back to Phil LeBeau with headlines from the call. We've got Elon Musk talking about Doge.
- [41:44]
Phil LeBeau
Phil yeah, and right off the bat he gets to the question that many people have is whether or not he will stop his activities with the Trump administration or at least curtail them. He basically says that starting next month he will be spending much less time with Doge and spending more time with Tesla and his private business activities. He defended the work of Doge, saying it's important to weed out the fraud and the corruption in government. And he's proud of the work that Doge has done. But he believes that now that it's essentially an entity that is set up within the Trump administration, he can scale back how much time he devotes to it. So that is one question, Melissa, that people wanted right off the bat. And one other quick update just a couple of seconds ago, he did indicate that they are on schedule for the launch of Robo Taxi in Austin. No details yet in terms of how big it will be, but that is the June launch that they've been talking about for some time. Melissa I'll send it back to you.
- [42:46]
Dan Nathan
Phil, keep us posted on the call. Phil LeBeau, the stock is up just over 4%. Color me skeptical, but that seems sort of an anemic bounce.
- [42:58]
Karen Finerman
Well, think about one of those groups in January, I think, and please don't add me if I'm wrong, but the Stock closed around 385 or so, came out with an abysmal quarter. Margins were horrible. They flee free cash flow. The beat of $600 million was on back. A sale of Bitcoin or Mark to market of Bitcoin or Something like that. We had a conversation that if you're just looking this fundamentally, stocks should be 320 traded up to 424, 25 over the next couple of weeks. So, you know, here we are at much lower levels, obviously, and we're seeing a similar thing. This can last 220 was a low back in October. You can bounce off this level for a while, but nothing changed fundamentally, in my opinion.
- [43:33]
Tim Seymour
Look, think of what futures are doing. I mean, let's think about also a stock that's one of the highest betas to the market. You know, I'll chalk a lot of this up to that. I'll talk this up to the rhetoric from President Trump, things that are supportive and really have some halo effect for Elon here.
- [43:49]
Dan Nathan
All right, let's bring in Brett Winton, the futurist at Ark Invest, the chief futurist. I guess there's a legion of futurists there. Brett, great to have you with us again. You got what you want in terms of. I mean, not, not. It's a little scant on detail so far. We're only about 16 minutes in the conference call or so. But you got an affirmation that Robo Taxi will launch in Austin in June, which you wanted. We have Elon Musk getting back to work at the company as early as May in terms of scaling back his involvement with Doge. We got everything we wanted, and the stock is up 4%. What do you make of this?
- [44:20]
Guy Adami
Well, I mean, I think that the stock has. It's clear that the stock does not discount the autonomous future that we envision. There is, there is, you know, all the skepticism on the panel. There's. Think about the. What a car could generate in cash flow if it can do 100,000 miles at a dollar a mile, and the cost to operate that vehicle is less than 20 cents a mile. So that's $80,000 in revenue that can be shared with the person who's owning, who owns the car and is cleaning it, and then flow back to Tesla. Right now, if they sell a Model 3 for $50,000, they're getting $5,000 in operating profit, Right? So there's. There's multiples in potential profit per vehicle in fleet that they get as Robotaxi launches and scales. The question is, how quickly is it going to scale? And he was indicating that it will begin to hit the financial statements next year in a material way which is consistent with how we think about the scaling of the business, and we'll see where it goes from there. But you know, like one of the panelists were saying, it's like, oh, on today's metrics, this stock is overpriced. Yes. Equities are a discount of future cash flows and the cash flow characteristics of this business are, are going to change when it becomes a robo taxi business.
- [45:40]
Dan Nathan
All right, Brett, thank you. Brett Winton of Ark Invest, the chief futurist there.
- [45:45]
Brett Winton
Well, he better hope that happens sooner than later because at some point, you know, there is gravity in markets and everything that he just said about what he sees in his crystal ball in the future is basically pie in the sky. Take the over when you don't listen. If the complexity with Waymo is who owns the fleet and how does it scale and the hardware that they need, what they're talking about is, you know, when someone buys a Tesla and cleaning it and electrifying it and having it sent to a depot and that's just a bunch of garbage. It's just not going to happen. I mean this is like Jetsons sort of stuff. And I take the over if we want to do 2030 on that.
- [46:18]
Tim Seymour
What's the flip side on Waymo and what's not priced in, you know, to essentially? I mean it's fascinating to think about if this is really so significant for Tesla, even if they are hardware constrained, that seems to be the easy link, right? Isn't everyone kind of presuming that hardware is not a problem? So why isn't Waymo garnering a much greater valuation?
- [46:39]
Dan Nathan
Coming up chartmaster Carter Braxton Worth sees cause for concern in Gold's record run. He lays out the case for buyer beware. Back into. Welcome back to Fast Money. Another check on some after hours moves after President Trump's tariff comments. The SPY S&P 500 ETF is higher by 1.7%. We're also seeing some nice gains in the QS, up by almost 2% here. Take a look at some of the stocks that we watch very closely when it comes to relations with China because specifically President Trump said that he thinks the deal will be done with China and that he will be nice to Beijing, Apple, Nvidia, Taiwan, Semi and the smh, the semiconductor ETF all surging in the after hours session here on the back of those comments. And of course the other comments ending the market markets higher. The comments about Fed Chair Jerome Powell saying he has no intention of firing Jerome Powell. He wants Powell to be more active on rates but no intention of firing Powell. Putting to to rest some reports and speculation that he was looking into it take a look at some of the retailers here because of course, retailers very exposed to tariffs specifically to China. Nike, Starbucks, Target, Wal Mart, all trading higher. Automakers, we were just talking about Tesla, but automakers here, gm, Ford and Stellantis, slightly higher here. So we're tracking all these sectors, all the moves because resolving the trade war with China would be a major step forward.
- [48:01]
Tim Seymour
The question is back to this, this Oval Office. These statements were, what was the context here? Were these planned? Because it almost seems like this is something that wasn't exactly supposed to be announced today. I mean, what was the context of that Oval Office meeting? Was, was it just a meeting with.
- [48:17]
Dan Nathan
Reporters to swear in or, you know, give the oath to the new sec? And so he was asked by reporters in the pool about some of these issues. Powell and China.
- [48:27]
Tim Seymour
If I'm cynical here, I would say be careful about that just because again, I think these were off the cuff comments. Having said that, it is clear that these are the latest thoughts that at least have come through to the White House and they're right on.
- [48:43]
Dan Nathan
Well, it's interesting because the context is also Secretary Bessant was out this morning making some comments that sent the markets higher. And then who does he invite into the Oval Office? Eamon Javors is in there. What do you think Amy Javors is going to ask about? He's going to ask about Jerome Powell.
- [48:58]
Karen Finerman
Look at you connecting dots. So again, but I mean you're right.
- [49:01]
Dan Nathan
It lays the groundwork for market rally and continue rally into tomorrow.
- [49:05]
Karen Finerman
No doubt. So let's look at the gold market tomorrow. Let's see how gold now gold was. Gold is probably selling off right now on the back of this. One of the last legs higher is probably on the back of the Jerome Powell stuff. We'll see. But I think any sell off in gold you gobble up very quickly. Gobble gobble.
- [49:20]
Dan Nathan
Well you say gobble gobble gobble. Charmaster might say something different. Gold briefly topping 30$500 an ounce for the first time ever today, marking the 25th time it has set an intraday record this year. The precious metals up nearly 30% in 2025. And the Chartmaster says prices have gone too far too fast. Let's bring in the charm master Carter Braxton. Worth of worth charting. Carter, what do you see?
- [49:43]
Guy Adami
Yeah, I mean a big day today. I think the key thing is a major milestone was reached. Gold adjusted for inflation literally today went back to its 1980 peak. This chart you see is just gold in nominal terms and it's almost 4x what it was in 1980. But the next chart is is the chart that's so important we got literally to the penny. It was January of 1980 adjusted for inflation. 45 years later, gold has recouped all its losses in real terms and it hit its head, stopped to the penny, gold reversed, closed on the low. This is a more day to day chart and then last chart. Look at this chart with its 150 day moving average, but we are now 25% above the 150. That's only happened four other times in the past 25 years and each and every time gold sold off essentially 10% or more. So whether you love gold for a.
- [50:36]
H
Double from here and you have long.
- [50:37]
Guy Adami
Term views of the banking system and Bitcoin and fiat currency, or whether you're an inflation or deflation person or Goldberg, doesn't matter. Tactically from a sequencing point of view, gold is steep and uncorrected.
- [50:49]
Dan Nathan
All right, so a check back of about 10% you said Carter.
- [50:52]
Guy Adami
I think that should be the middle.
- [50:54]
Dan Nathan
All right. Carter Braxton, Wirth of Worth Charting well, you know what? I bet gold is going to be a hot topic when our next Fast Money Live takes Flight Thursday, June 5th. Join us here at the Nasdaq. Watch a show, get one on one time with the traders. Walk away with a special gift and a six month subscription to CNBC Pro for new users to join the action, scan the QR code on your screen or head on over to CNBC events.com fastmoney and get your ticket. Up next, Final Trades we are out of time so take a look here on your screen. Those are the traders final trades for this evening. Thanks for watching Fast Money.
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Guy Adami
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