← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
Markets Wrap Up Strong October… And Netflix Eyes Warner Bros. Assets 10/31/25
00:43:15
Stocks wrapping up a not-so-spooky October, with the major indices all notching solid gains. The names helping boost the Nasdaq, and why boosted AI capex spending in two tech giants are sending the stocks in very different directions. Plus A streaming scoop up. How Netflix could be eyeing Warner Brothers assets, and how it could impact the media space. Fast Money Disclaimer
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- [00:00]
Steve Grasso
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- [00:47]
Melissa Lee
Live from the NASDAQ Marketsite in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. The haves and have nots. There was one big winner this week, this big week of tech earnings and one not so much. But are either of these names a buy now? We'll debate that and Netflix's next move. The streaming giant shares up on a stock split and a potential bid for Warner Brothers assets. What a deal could look like and what it means for the media space. Plus, Chevron shares get energized after earnings. Can crypto come back after a down week? And we're biting into the options on McDonald's ahead of earnings, what to expect from the burger chain and what it'll say about consumer appetite. I'm Melissa Lee, coming to you live from CDP at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Feiderman, Steve Brasso and Mike Koh, we start off with a not so spoiled spooky month for markets. It is Halloween, Boo October trading in the books and the traditionally rough month for stocks has been anything but. The major indices all notching solid gains. The dow S&P 500 and Russell 2000 all up for a six month in a row. That is the Dow's longest winning streak since 2017. The NASDAQ, which led the pack in October, gained for seven straight, also its best run in four years. This week's big tech reports helped boost the Nasdaq, but it wasn't big gains for everyone. Amazon surging after US cloud growth blew past expectations. Valuations shares were up 9% this week. Meanwhile, Matter dropped after saying Capex would be much higher than expected. Those shares down 12% since Monday. So after these big moves, which if either of These names are. Would you rather I just said yes.
- [02:21]
Steve Grasso
Which, which either.
- [02:23]
Karen Feideman
Oh, it's a new game.
- [02:24]
Melissa Lee
Which, which Catchy.
- [02:27]
Tim Seymour
Well, Amazon over Matter, certainly, based upon what we heard and the way the market's treating Matter, I think long term, I'd still rather be in Metta. I think the price action in Matter we've talked about was kind of sideways to disappoint it coming into this. What I, what I think you should be rewarding in the trade that really, I think we settle into after this week is that the capex trade is alive. It's just be careful how you're spending it. And it's, it's a case where I do think we've already started to see nuances to how you invest in this current environment. But I don't think I heard anything this week. And I think Google's numbers this week really make them the clear big winner. And they were kind of the big winner coming into the week and it still is the most sensible on valuation. So if you want my stock pick on the week, it's Google. I don't think you run from matter. In fact, I think there's been a lot of concern about this spend that we heard about in these numbers for some time. The stock reflects that.
- [03:20]
Melissa Lee
Does the numbers or the guidance about 2026 make you think twice about Metta?
- [03:26]
Karen Feideman
The guidance about CapEx notably, and exactly what it is. But I know that it's huge and bigger than I would like it to be Me. Well, I can tell you what I did which would reflect how I feel. So I had some collars on in Meta. I took some of them off today when the stock was down maybe 8 or 9. So that was premature to take that. So it's effectively buying, right. A selling color you're, you're buying. And I don't know if we've seen the sentiment change enough. I'm not sure, you know, there's a lot of price targets out there that are higher and, you know, they feel like, all right, well, revenue, the quarter was actually quite good, which it was.
- [04:05]
Melissa Lee
Right.
- [04:05]
Karen Feideman
But overshadowed by this giant spend. Then there's the, you know, the sort of scars left from the metaverse. And I don't know if Zuckerberg cares where the stock is trading in the short term. I don't think so. And I'm not sure what got him out of the metaverse, whether it was the pressure on the stock or whether it was, wow, I don't know that if the metaverse is the promise that I thought it Was with that. What.
- [04:27]
Tim Seymour
Hopefully that.
- [04:28]
Karen Feideman
Hopefully that.
- [04:29]
Tim Seymour
Yeah, the latter. Sorry.
- [04:31]
Cosmo Jiang
But.
- [04:31]
Karen Feideman
Right.
- [04:32]
Tim Seymour
But there's not much there the metaverse.
- [04:35]
Karen Feideman
So I would think then that the stock price wouldn't. He's going to do what he's going to do the spend. Because he's there. Unless that, unless that comes up to not be.
- [04:47]
Steve Grasso
So he could pull that spend back.
- [04:49]
Melissa Lee
Right.
- [04:50]
Steve Grasso
I mean it's not carved in stone at this point, so.
- [04:52]
Melissa Lee
Sure. I mean there's not even a number.
- [04:54]
Karen Feideman
Right.
- [04:55]
Melissa Lee
Right.
- [04:55]
Karen Feideman
So.
- [04:55]
Steve Grasso
So he. He was rewarded back in a couple of years. Slammed because of the rapid span the metaverse. Now he was rewarded for it now and now he's slammed again.
- [05:06]
Karen Feideman
So he could it for the year of efficiency in a huge way.
- [05:09]
Barton Crockett
Right.
- [05:09]
Steve Grasso
For pulling it back.
- [05:10]
Karen Feideman
Yeah.
- [05:11]
Steve Grasso
And then he was rewarded because he was spending with his peers for AI spend and right now kept up and worked and was working.
- [05:19]
Karen Feideman
Yes.
- [05:19]
Steve Grasso
But now, now if he decides to throttle that, I think this gives him a unique spot. He has what AWS used to have in Amazon. They could throttle that up or down whenever they wanted. Well, now he could throttle this up or down whenever he sees fit to it. But the 3.5 billion users still on Facebook, no one, no one on this.
- [05:42]
Barton Crockett
Panel is on Facebook.
- [05:42]
Melissa Lee
I've never been on Facebook.
- [05:44]
Steve Grasso
That is something. What's the user base? What's the user base in Apple? I've never been on Facebook either, but it's 3.5 bill over 3.5 billion. That user base is always worth something. They're only second to Google. And ad spend. You got to buy matter in a whatchif either.
- [06:00]
Tim Seymour
I thought you just talked about Apple and I would just say that this week told us things about old companies that are old stories and that was good news. In other words, should we be surprised that demand for the holiday quarter, December quarter and for the following quarter for Apple is going to be strong? No, but we got a reaffirmation of that and it seems as if people are kind of surprised and the analyst community will now come around and upgrade the stock. Same thing with Google. I mean, Google search was suddenly rewarded as being much better than we had thought it was when I never thought it wasn't there. So that was what was fascinating about this week.
- [06:37]
Melissa Lee
Right. Right. Mike, I want to go to you. I mean, were the winners in your view, in terms of. In terms of what we learned from earnings? Did you. Did you like what came out of Alphabet and Apple the most, as Tim seems to be, or is Amazon with the biggest percent gain on the week Is that the winner?
- [06:52]
Mike Koh
Well, I mean I liked Amazon going into the numbers, so I'm even happier coming coming out of them to be sure. I mean one of the things I would say is that just looking at this whole complex, I mean meta looks cheap but let's remember in the metaverse sort of, you know, issues that we had, it got, it got much cheaper than it is right now. But it's, it's trading at less than 20 times forward earnings and growing the top line at about 17%. Amazon to me, I'm perplexed, I have to say, by the level that it trades at even now, I mean it ral but it looks cheap relative to growth as far as I'm concerned. They're in all the right spots and you've got comps for various pieces of their business. I know that Karen has some things to say about Amazon relative to Walmart Alphabet obviously it was in my acronym at the beginning of the year. A little bit painful early once we got rid of that overhang with respect to the potential that they might have to divest Chrome, I think putting that behind us, this one also still looks attractive to me. So I still kind of like them all. The one thing I would say is that Apple devaluation there's a little bit harder for me to get behind. But at the very least we are seeing that the top line is actually accelerating now, something it hasn't done for the last couple of years. So I will call that one reasonably priced. All the others I think are cheap.
- [08:08]
Melissa Lee
Let's get to that self. Would you rather that you wanted to do Karen and that would be Amazon versus Walmart because this is a very interesting exercise in terms of looking at the forward P E and what you're getting for it.
- [08:18]
Karen Feideman
So it was interesting to think about. If you have the Amazon business, which we know we have big part retail advertising, but also you have us and if you think about the forward multiple here, I'm not sure if these are exactly right, but they are about the same Amazon and Walmart. And if you think about the US margins, how significantly larger they are than the rest of the business and how Amazon doesn't have that and yet here they are trading at the same thing. If you believe in AI, if you believe in the growth of us, which I do, it makes me think, you know what should I have any Walmart at the same multiple or should I would you rather and go from Walmart into Amazon and you and I were talking a little bit before the show about. I would be Inclined, I think, to have certainly the next dollar Amazon over Wal Mart for sure and maybe even the current dollar out of Amazon into, out of Wal Mart into Amazon. But you were thinking.
- [09:20]
Melissa Lee
I was just thinking a little bit more on the defensive side of things in terms of, you know, if, if, if people are. Stocks are getting dinged for overspending or perceived overspending. Capex on AI, if there is ever a perceived, you know, a downturn or anything like that, then Wal Mart is the more defensive ballast in one's portfolio. It will execute well.
- [09:41]
Karen Feideman
Yes, but I think if you back out the, if you back out the same multiple that Walmart gets from, from Amazon, then you're left with a much cheaper multiple for AWS than what I think it would be on a standalone.
- [09:56]
Melissa Lee
Okay, but if you take a look at the forward PE of Amazon and say going back to Alphabet, different businesses, but Alphabet's a lot cheaper.
- [10:06]
Tim Seymour
It is a lot that Alphabet's a lot cheaper. Again post doj, you have a dynamic where we now also see the acceleration in the search business. We see the sum of the parts. I do think that this was a week where the street paid attention to multiples. And so it's not like matter is expensive, but when met it goes from 26% growth and then guides down 400 basis points or so for the fourth quarter on really tough comps. I think it starts to feed into, well, it's not that cheap if we're growing actually, you know, less than we were growing last year. So I think that's part of why Amazon and yes, we can do. You're right, mild, because relative to Wal Mart, depends what market we have. There's no question I'm going to want to own Wal Mart. In a world where we're seeing a lot of volatility and concern about the consumer, even though you would make an argument it's a consumer, a pure consumer play.
- [10:58]
Steve Grasso
And plus Walmart has the ability to get into digital. They get into technology that it hasn't already. So if they start to scratch that surface, that multiple probably goes up. What you're willing to play for pay for Wal Mart as opposed to us at this point.
- [11:14]
Melissa Lee
Well, for more on what we've learned from this week's earnings, let's bring in Gene Munster, managing partner, Deepwater Asset Management, who's helped us dissect these earnings as they cross the wires this whole week. Jean, great to see you again. What's, what's sort of the headline here and how do you apply that headline to how you View the markets stocks as we enter the next month.
- [11:36]
Gene Munster
Well, this week wasn't just about the MAG7 or the earnings. We also had on Tuesday, GTC and Jensen's keynote. And I think that that plays into the bottom line. Takeaway was relative to the infrastructure side, what we saw Jensen's comments, he effectively raised Nvidia's outlook versus the street by about 15% at least for the next five quarters. And then we got confirmation of that on Wednesday and Thursday. And so I think that that's a big takeaway. I think kind of the hidden winner this week was Nvidia. The stock didn't really act like that because I think investors still struggle with a $5 trillion market cap. They struggle with the concept that hardware eventually blows up. And it's just a mind bender to think that we're still early in this capex build out. So that's why you don't see the appreciation. But clearly Nvidia was, from my perspective, kind of the winner this week and I think that's probably a big takeaway. I think something else that we take away too is just the strength of these big companies. Whether it's with Apple seeing the resurgence in iPhone from the upgrade from four years ago, those customers coming back, we see the habitual behavior around Google search and them being able to angle more questions into better search growth. And then we see those daily active user numbers from Meta. Steve was talking about them and just to frame that in, I mean they grew daily active users at 7.6% in the September quarter. That is a sequential acceleration for each of the past five quarters. It was 4% growth five quarters ago. So there is something that I take away from this week, which is just this reminder that these companies have moats, flywheels that are continuing to get strong and will serve them well in the future.
- [13:26]
Melissa Lee
There's also though, the reaction to Meta's CapEx spend and forecast for 2026 though, Gene and and are we at a point where investors are questioning what they're getting for those dollars spent on, on AI? Or is it just, I mean, is it idiosyncratic to matter or are we starting to get to that point where people are thinking, what is the ROI here?
- [13:48]
Gene Munster
We talked earlier in the week, is this concept of the flipping of the script for Meta, if you're curious, the day that the year of innovation started on February 1, 2023, we're almost three years. But Meta has, at that point, when they started talking about that, we saw accelerating revenue and expenses growing at a slower pace and I think that that change of the narrative I think really stung investors and, and the stock is working through it now. But I think there's a piece that gets missed in this, in the whole equation. We talked about the daily users, but there's also these companies. I mean this is such a massive transition that's going on. I mean it's hard to come up with the adjectives to describe how the world is changing right now. The leadership piece is critical. This was the big knock against Google earlier in the year that they didn't have the chops to really navigate through this. There wasn't that sense of urgency and I think if you look at the Mag 7, the CEO that probably has the most urgency is probably the two Musk and Zuckerberg. And so Zuck has been making this massive investment into talent and talent matters in this race and Llama's been a big disappointment. But those whiz kids that have joined Meta since the beginning of the summer and that snow, it's not all happy days there. There's definitely friction. But I think that history would say that with a good leader in place, or at least an intense leader in place, that they're going to deliver something in the quarters to come that are going to cause that that narrative to shift back to faster revenue growth versus expenses.
- [15:24]
Steve Grasso
Jean, just to piggyback that though, you've seen the data that I spend is 92% of the growth in GDP for the first half of 2024 5. How can that be sustainable? It's 4% of GDP now.
- [15:40]
Gene Munster
Well I guess the question on the sustainability is it how can it be sustainable next year, next two years? It can be because of this intense race that's going on. Eventually there is going to be this leveling off and eventually the absolute dollars will probably decline. My guess is we're several years away from that. But I mean the law of large numbers will catch up to that. But you know that I think it kind of sending a mixed message here. I think that the clear message from my perspective is these numbers are mind bending and I think that they're going to continue to move higher. If you look at what on September 9th Susan Lee from the CFO of Meta said at the Goldman conference is that she basically gave some expectations that they're going to be growing capex close to 40% for the next three or four years. So you know Steve, I think it's we're going to hit a wall at some point, we'll slow down at some point. Maybe not Hit a wall, slow down. But I don't think it's close. I think that's we're going to be having the same conversation six months from now.
- [16:39]
Melissa Lee
Gene, always great to speak with you. Thanks for your help all this week. Appreciate you. Munster. Deepwater Asset Management. Gene mentioned Nvidia at the very top in video is actually a big winner on the week despite not having earnings up 8.7%. And so it gets you thinking in terms of who wins in the trade and could be a combination of them. But would you rather invest in the company spending the dollars to build out AI infrastructure or the company that will receive that those dollars to build the infrastructure? I think that's sort of the question of Nvidia versus a hyperscaler. Nvidia versus a matter.
- [17:12]
Tim Seymour
Right. So. So as Gene referenced, Tuesday was the super bowl of AI. And we also learned that Hopper and Blackwell are possibly for 26 shipments are going to be significantly higher than the street already had. But what we've learned about Nvidia over the last six to nine months is that this is an AI infrastructure company and that they're also reinvesting in those folks that will be essentially investing in them or at least major clients. I, I know we're skeptical about the circular nature of that, but, but I kind of like it. In other words, I see where it's much like if you tell a young professional and someone says, well, you know, what career should I get into? Say, I don't know, I see things changing in a big way. And you know, right now this looks really interesting, but you never know where tomorrow brings. Well, there's no question that they have their core business and we've also proved that the software and the platform around it was part of that, that moat. But the reality is AI is taking on different forms and spaces. What I think we've learned this week is that in video, ultimately on valuation, given their growth we got it might as well have been an earnings week. We got a growth update that the analyst community had to upgrade the stock and they're a close second behind Google on this week.
- [18:17]
Melissa Lee
Yeah. Mike, your thoughts?
- [18:19]
Mike Koh
Yeah, I mean this is another one that we seem to sometimes get the idea of a valuable business and valuation a little bit conflated. 5 trillion is a very hard number for anybody to get their arms around. But the fact is that if you take a look at the multiple that this thing is trading at and you wonder how this is supported. Well, it's supported by a lot of other very profitable businesses that are buying their products. And there's no reason to believe that that's just going to end after a single year. These things also age out over time and they're going to be developing new technology. So I think this has got a couple more years to run and I think the entire space is something you have to stay invested in.
- [18:58]
Melissa Lee
What are you doing with your Nvidia position here with the $5 trillion mark behind it?
- [19:02]
Karen Feideman
I haven't done anything. I've recently put on collars, so I have that. So your question is an excellent one. I don't know which. So I'm going to be in both. I'm going to be the hyperscalers and you know, and Metta and Nvidia.
- [19:19]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, SNAP benefits in focus as the government shutdown drags on the impact it could have on consumers and the companies that cater to them. Plus, Chevron jumping on the back of this morning's strong earnings report, how to play the energy space right after this.
- [19:36]
Steve Grasso
This is FAST MONEY with Melissa Lee.
- [19:40]
Tim Seymour
Right here on cnbc. Cnbc, Sport on the Record, your front row seat to sports and business. From commissioners and owners to media executives and top athletes. These are Rembrandts. I'm telling you, these franchise on the.
- [19:55]
Steve Grasso
Record, all new Saturdays, three Eastern.
- [20:00]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to FAST money. Super majors Chevron and Exxon reporting quarterly earnings before the market opened today. Chevron jumping nearly 3% after beating top and bottom line estimates and reporting a daily production of 4.1 million barrels for the quarter. Exxon also beating EPS estimates but missing on revenue. Shares were flat today though the stock is up 6% this year. Low oil prices, low oil prices, low. That was a big problem here.
- [20:24]
Steve Grasso
It's a big problem. But there's the large integrated names are so diversified that oil is only one aspect, even though it's the most important aspect, you would think. But they're so efficient now that they could actually make money. I think the break evens are between 30 and $40 for these two. And Chevron's deal with Hess closes in November. So there's a lot of positive tailwinds.
- [20:44]
Melissa Lee
Right.
- [20:44]
Steve Grasso
Remember with this administration, they signed 4,400 new permits for drilling this year so far.
- [20:52]
Melissa Lee
Are you in Chevron?
- [20:53]
Tim Seymour
I'm in Chevron, I'm in Exxon. They're smaller positions, but I kind of feel like you want to own energy here. I'm sure I probably said that a year ago and it wasn't a great year. But I'll say more from the contrarian perspective. We know it's been A tough run for energy. Oil prices have been on a kind of downward trend for a couple of years. I do think you've got a dynamic where there's a bit of a floor under prices here. I think OPEC knows it, I think the US knows it. And back to Exxon. I mean they're specially chemicals business. I mean there's upstairs, there's upstream, there's kind of downstream and then there's the chemicals business. And that was beat. And that's a higher margin business. Steve said they break even on, on a 5 billion buyback and div payments of another 4.4 billion better than most. I like it.
- [21:39]
Karen Feideman
So both of them record production. Right. But they do talk about being more and more efficient. So as a, as an OIH owner kind of prefer they be a little less efficient, actually. Use more servicing, have more servicing revenue for those guys. But I am with Tim, with Tim. I like the space. I also think there's a floor here. But I also was with Tim last year.
- [22:03]
Melissa Lee
Thank you.
- [22:04]
Tim Seymour
Great to have you. It's really been nice to be with you.
- [22:08]
Melissa Lee
Join you guys. Yeah, right there. Mike Koh, where are you within the energy space?
- [22:15]
Mike Koh
Not in the integrated. I mean, to me I think they're fairly valued, but they're not a very exciting sort of growth story. And you know, if you're going to start picking stocks, you might as well pick ones that you think might potentially outperform the broader indices. And I think the AI trade is where that's at. I will say though that the oil service index space names like Halliburton do look like they've sort of bottomed out and might be turning around. And those are a little bit cheaper than the integrated names. So schlumbers a Halliburton. Names like that might be a way I'd prefer to play it, but I'm not in either of them at the moment.
- [22:48]
Karen Feideman
Come join us, Mike.
- [22:50]
Melissa Lee
So enticing. There's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.
- [22:56]
Tim Seymour
Should we be rolling out the red carpet for another streaming shake up? Inside, the latest reports of a Netflix.
- [23:02]
Steve Grasso
Deal for Warner Brothers assets next.
- [23:05]
Tim Seymour
But first, the impact of the government shutdown widening with snap benefits expiring tomorrow, what it means for an already stretched.
- [23:13]
Mike Koh
Consumer this holiday season.
- [23:15]
Tim Seymour
You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square.
- [23:20]
Steve Grasso
We're back right after this. It's Cybersecurity awareness month and LifeLock is.
- [23:27]
Mike Koh
Here with tips to help protect your identity. Use strong passwords, set up multi factor.
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Steve Grasso
Authentication and report phishing scams.
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Mike Koh
And for comprehensive identity protection, Lifelock is your best choice. Lifelock alerts you to suspicious uses of your personal information and also fixes identity.
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Steve Grasso
Theft, guaranteed or your money back.
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Mike Koh
Stay smart, stay safe and stay protected.
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Steve Grasso
With a 30 day free trial at.
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Mike Koh
Lifelock.Com Special offer terms apply.
- [23:54]
Emily Wilkins
CNBC's Changemakers 2026 list spotlighting women who innovate, lead boldly and are transforming business. Do you know someone who is rewriting the future? Nominate them now@cnbc.com changemakers.
- [24:10]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. The government shutdown in day 31 and a federal judge today blocked the Trump administration from stopping payouts of SNAP food assistance just hours before they were set to be suspended because of the federal funding lapse. Emily Wilkins joins us from Washington with the latest on this. Emily?
- [24:27]
Emily Wilkins
Hey, Melissa. As you said, federal judge in Rhode island, they said the Trump administration now needs to use a contingency fund there to cover SNAP benefits. Meanwhile, another judge in Massachusetts also this afternoon, they asked for more information before a final decision is made, but said that those pushing for the government to pay out benefits would likely be successful. That's 42 million Americans impacted, as you just saw right there. And just before the rulings were handed down, Trump was actually asked about whether the White House could find an alternative funding for the program. Trump said it's up to Democrats to end the government shutdown. And then he added this.
- [25:05]
Tim Seymour
I'm president.
- [25:06]
Melissa Lee
I want to help everybody.
- [25:07]
Tim Seymour
I want to help Democrats and Republicans. But when you're talking about snap, if you look, it's largely Democrats. They're hurting their own people.
- [25:16]
Emily Wilkins
Trump has found funding to avoid most of the more painful aspects of the shutdown plan, things like pay for military members. In fact, servicemen and women were just paid today after the White House managed to find funds from several different areas, federal workers. However, they've now gone a full month without pay and there doesn't seem to be any end in sight for that. The shutdown does seem likely to go into next week. If it lasts until Wednesday, it will be the longest government shutdown in history. Melissa?
- [25:45]
Melissa Lee
Emily, thank you. Emily Wilkins from Washington. How do we start thinking about the impact on consumer behavior if we haven't already seen it before? I mean, I'm impact to GDP, impact to spending patterns, etc. Karen, how are you? This is the longest shutdown will be, right?
- [26:01]
Karen Feideman
So we're, you know, wondering about for a Wal Mart or the Family dollar stores, is that good or bad? Right. For Some. It's bad.
- [26:08]
Tim Seymour
Right.
- [26:09]
Karen Feideman
If you have, if you, if you.
- [26:10]
Melissa Lee
Have, you rely on your bills. Yeah.
- [26:14]
Karen Feideman
Right. But you can also see a trade down effect that might help either of those. You wonder for who gets hurt by it. I'm wondering if it's somebody like a target.
- [26:26]
Melissa Lee
Right.
- [26:26]
Tim Seymour
I just feel like we've, we've been so inured to feel as if the shutdown means nothing and means nothing for the economy because historically it has meant nothing. As this drags on, some of the dynamics around the labor market are when layered into the other dynamics we've been dealing with. Right Now, I'm not willing to say this is a macroeconomic headwind.
- [26:47]
Steve Grasso
You know, when you look back, and I'm not belittling anyone who struggles to get food or any of the other stuff around it, but when you look back, the last one, what was it, 18 to 19 or 1718, I think it was 1718. That was 35 days. When you look back on the charts, you really don't see a lot of effect after. It hurts while you're in it. It hurts everyone while you're in it. But it really kind of ripples through. Everyone gets back to work, people get their paychecks. So I'm hoping that this is the case with this one. So I don't want to really make investment decisions around what the effects are because by the time I make that investment decision, the effects are going to be a long time over.
- [27:27]
Melissa Lee
Right, Mike?
- [27:29]
Mike Koh
Well, you know, the timeframe that Steve is referencing, I think the snap benefits ran something in the neighborhood of $4.5 billion a month. It's at least double that now. We're looking at probably 35 basis points of GDP for, I don't know what's the worst case that we're going to handicap that for maybe six weeks or so. So, I mean, you can put numbers on it. I'm not going to worry about it too much from an economic standpoint, but obviously from a human standpoint, one does does get worried.
- [28:02]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, is Netflix about to make a major acquisition? The latest on reports that the streaming giant could be eyeing a deal with Warner Brothers next. Welcome back to FAST money. Major averages pulling out gains to close out a winning week. The Dow and S and P both gaining almost a percent since Monday. And the Nasdaq surging two and a quarter percent, though all are just slightly off records. The Nasdaq also leading the way for the month, nearly 5% higher in October. It was the index's seventh straight month of gains down S&P 500 each up sixth straight. Well, shares of Netflix and Warner Brothers both rising today. Reuters reporting the streaming giant is actively exploring a bid for assets of the media company, hiring bankers to look at options. Netflix also announced a 10 for 1 stock split yesterday, a move that would make shares more accessible to retail traders. The Stock is up 25% this year. For more, let's bring in Barton Crockett, senior analyst at Rosenblatt Securities. It's got a buy rating and a 1530 price target on the stock. Barton, great to have you with us.
- [29:03]
Barton Crockett
Yes, thank you. Happy to be here.
- [29:05]
Melissa Lee
So is will Netflix be a better company, a better streaming service? All of the above, if it buyers buy some assets from Warner Brothers?
- [29:14]
Barton Crockett
Well, I think it's, I think obviously WB has iconic ip. I think the challenging thing is the box office side of it. So, you know, Warner Brothers is toe to toe with Disney for number one in box office globally. And Netflix is, you know, stated strategy is streaming first and really box office hardly ever. And it's hard to see how those things would culturally fit together. And so, you know, I'm skeptical that this happens. I mean, I think that it makes a lot of sense for Netflix to kick the tires, take a look, learn more about one of their big competitors through this process. But, you know, I think it would be very difficult for them culturally to completely pivot to become, you know, one of the biggest box office. And it's also very hard, I think, for Hollywood to buy into that idea. I mean, how can you trust that Netflix would actually keep the theatrical given their years of, you know, casting kind of aspersions on the whole idea? So I think it's challenging for that and some other reasons.
- [30:09]
Melissa Lee
If you could break apart WBD into, into various assets like a library, the studio, etc. Can you sort of pair up these pieces with various players on the chessboard to create, you know, super streamers, Super Studios, etc.
- [30:23]
Barton Crockett
Well, you know, I suppose if you wanted to do a deep dive and just give Netflix the library, sure, you know, but libraries deteriorate, deteriorate without new production. And the new production, at least on the movie side, is very theatrically driven, theatrically motivated, theatrically, culturally kind of tied into that universe of directors who and talent who want that. So, you know, that strikes me as really hard to fathom how Netflix can completely 180 pivot and do that and be embraced by Hollywood and not generate a whole bunch of pushback of people worried that, geez, they might shut down all of the movie production. For one of the biggest studios into theaters, which I think politically and in Hollywood would be. Would cause an uproar.
- [31:06]
Karen Feideman
Barton's Karen, thanks for being on. So can you tell me on your price target, which is. I'm a shareholder, so I hope you're spot on or maybe even below where it'll go. How do you get there, though? What's the multiple and what has to happen for it to get there?
- [31:20]
Barton Crockett
Yeah, look, I mean, I'm assuming that Netflix can have very good growth in earnings per share. You know, we're modeling like a 28% CAGR over three years with 20, 26 in the middle of that. You know, we think it can trade at a 45 p. E which is a premium to the growth, but I think a premium that it would command just given its dominant position, secularly kind of strong position, you know, and frankly their past kind of tendency to beat and raise. So estimates move up and that multiple can move down. So that's how we get there, Barton.
- [31:54]
Melissa Lee
In all of this. Where does Comcast fit in, if it does at all? The stock hit a five year low.
- [32:00]
Barton Crockett
Look, I think, yeah, Comcast is, I think, would have some difficulties doing a big acquisition just given the challenges in their core kind of broadband business that's really pressured the shares and to go pivot a whole bunch of capital to buying the Warner Brothers assets at this time when the stock settle low. I can understand, looking at it, I can understand doing the due diligence. You know, I think it's a long shot to see that either, you know, Comcast or Netflix prevailing over, you know, one of the world's richest families, the Ellisons. If there's any type of auction or bidding war.
- [32:36]
Melissa Lee
Barn, great to have you with us. Thank you.
- [32:38]
Barton Crockett
Great.
- [32:38]
Melissa Lee
Thank you, Baron Crockett. We should also note, of course, Comcast is a parent company of CNBC for now until we're spun off. Tim, what do you make of this sort of landscape?
- [32:47]
Tim Seymour
Well, I. So let's switch it over to WBD and Peace Guy. I mean, it just makes me feel like there's really one buyer for WBD and it's Peace Guy. So it makes sense that WDB is hiring bankers and exploring options and trying to negotiate the best deal. I get the sense that Paramount is the best of old Hollywood and the best of new Hollywood. In other words, I think culturally they feel they can bring these assets together. They can keep the two studios, they can keep the creative, they can keep the production, and then they can, and this is, by the way, not a new idea. I mean this is out there that they can with, with AI, with efficiencies in marketing and distribution, they can save a lot of money. I think there's still a sense and I think, you know, I don't know what we would call it. We would call it old Hollywood ego that still thinks there's, there's more here than and I actually think some of the parts there is. So I think this deal is going to happen. I'm a long wbd. I'm not long Paramount Sky. I don't think it's going to the moon, but I think this deal gets done.
- [33:41]
Steve Grasso
I don't think Netflix should even be in this conversation. They've always chilled, chose build versus buy. 50% of their content now is originals for them. I'd rather see them invest more in sports versus something like this. I think they get a mega bang for their buck versus this. But I just want to bring you back one last thing. Roku, you didn't tell me this. You didn't ask me what you have either. So I'm going to do a which if either. Roku up 42% year to date, up big today, beat and increase guidance for next year. That's a hidden play too.
- [34:12]
Tim Seymour
Which if either.
- [34:13]
Steve Grasso
That was how we started the show.
- [34:15]
Melissa Lee
It's not a game. I understand everything you want to make into a game.
- [34:18]
Steve Grasso
I said it sounded like a lot of.
- [34:21]
Tim Seymour
It's one thing to create your own. Would you rather it's another thing to.
- [34:23]
Melissa Lee
Start a whole new game either. That's terrible. It's a terrible, terrible.
- [34:27]
Steve Grasso
Were you here during the eight ball? That's what happened.
- [34:30]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, we're putting the crypt in crypto. Anyway, Halloween. Oh, a spooky week for bitcoin, A brand new Solana ETF and Coinbase bringing the heat in its latest earnings report. We are all in right after this. Welcome back to Fast Money. Major cryptocurrency is higher today, but set to notch their third losing week and four with Bitcoin, Solana and Ethereum all lower this week bitwise launching the first ever spot Solana ETF earlier this week and a sign that enthusiasm around altcoins is still running high. For more, let's bring in Cosmo Jiang. He is a general partner at Pantera Capital. Cosmo, great to see you.
- [35:10]
Cosmo Jiang
Hey, Melissa.
- [35:11]
Melissa Lee
So obviously you're still believers. One stat really stood out to me in terms of the notes that I received and that is that that there's more money flowing into Bitcoin ETFs at this point than into the NASDAQ, which is just staggering.
- [35:24]
Cosmo Jiang
No, it's been pretty incredible to see ever since the launch of the Bitcoin ETFs just a little over a year and a half. Coming on two years ago, we've seen an incredible amount of enthusiasm for digital asset exposure and you're seeing that in the really strong flows. You know the stat you just mentioned, the fact that there's been more inflows into the Bitcoin ETFs than into the Kuku Q is pretty incredible to think about when that's the second largest index.
- [35:48]
Melissa Lee
Which coin, which crypto is Pantera most exposed to?
- [35:53]
Cosmo Jiang
So today we are historically been known for being very early to bitcoin. Our first bitcoin fund was launched in 2013. It's been a 1500x for our investors. Today our largest exposure is actually to Solana. We think this is a really coming of age moment for Solana and we anticipate really strong demand. The launch of the Solana ETF this week from Bitwise is a really big deal and we think it's really strong perception. One of the little known facts be sold the ticker for Bitwise, a salon etf. Bitwise, by the way, a Terra portfolio company launched with the highest day one volume of any ETF launch year to date and has over 400 million of assets now.
- [36:30]
Tim Seymour
Cosmo. Tim, great to have you on again. And you know when you're here, you did talk about your exposure to Solana and the fact that you've got XRP and a couple other ETFs coming through also in kind of what we would call the more established token space. How about this, this pent up demand though, giving people other opportunities. How would you recommend? Because it's clear to me you're seeing institutional demand that as you said isn't just yesterday. It's five to 10 years in the making. But, but outside of the call it the crypto ETFs, where would you recommend investors? Because a lot of our investors at home, yeah, they may own some Coinbase, they may own some Robinhood, they may own some super micro. I mean like different places where they're trying to get their exposure. But, but I think we'd like to hear from you.
- [37:14]
Cosmo Jiang
Well, so recently there's been this big boom in a new set of companies called Digital Asset Treasuries or dax. It's an area that we as a firm really helped kickstart earlier this year and have leaned into. These are companies that are following what Microstrategy has done by accumulating capital or accumulating Bitcoin or other tokens on their balance sheet and really trying to increase the amount of tokens per share you own. We recently launched our own digital asset treasury called Solana Company Ticker hsdt. And when people think about, you know, digital asset treasuries versus ETFs, like why would I own a bitcoin in a box if you all, if I could just own a passive etf and it really comes down to active management versus passive DT is or digital asset Treasuries are all about giving you active management, whereas ETFs, they're great for a lot of people, they're passive. And as you can see, a lot of there is a way to add a lot of value through active management, whether that's through marketing the token advocacy, capital market strategies, or just simply buying and selling more, more intelligently than passively. And I believe over time that some of these digital asset treasuries like HSDT can really outperform the underlying token if they execute well.
- [38:22]
Melissa Lee
How should we think about the early days of stablecoin adoption and use? Cosmo? A lot of companies have announced that they are launching their own stablecoin. Western Union was was one this week. I mean, are we going to have these silos where you operate in a world that accepts one kind of coin stablecoin in another world where you know, you have to buy another stablecoin and are we going to have the security is, you know, in terms of dollar backed completely as we have with US dollar coin, for instance.
- [38:53]
Cosmo Jiang
So five years from now, I truly believe every single financial application on your phone today will run on blockchain rails. But you and I will probably not notice the difference. And that's the beauty of it. The more that technology advances, the ui, the UX gets easier. It gets easier and more useful. And so we don't need to know exactly how blockchain works in the background, it just will work. And the reality is it could run on multiple chains, it could run with multiple different stablecoins but increasingly there are many tools and technologies to make that translation between different stablecoins very seamless and costless. And so we're excited to see a bunch of companies step into the space. Like you mentioned, Western Union launching a stablecoin on Solana because they realize Solana is really at the center of the stablecoin story going forward.
- [39:39]
Melissa Lee
Cosmo, great to speak with you. Thank you.
- [39:41]
Cosmo Jiang
Awesome. Great having you.
- [39:43]
Melissa Lee
Pantera. Mike, where are you in crypto these days?
- [39:47]
Mike Koh
Well, we still have pretty substantial positions. And in bitcoin we obviously have an ETF on that. And in strategy, I will say that. But, you know, we've seen this cycle many times in the past. When you see bitcoin and strategy dip below their longer term moving averages, sentiment turns negative. We see a lot of, you know, if you're just following the chatter, the sentiment isn't great in this space right now. I think strategy will actually be the way to play it though, because that the premium that it trades at relative to bitcoin has really come in quite substantially. And I think when we get that rebound, that's going to be the place to be in it. But at the moment, I still think we have a little bit to go before the pain's over.
- [40:32]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, you thought earnings season was over? Well, think again. Huge reports next week mean huge action in the options market. We'll break it down next for Fast Money into. Welcome back to Fast Money. Another big week of earnings coming up with Palantir, Uber, Airbnb, amd, Qualcomm. Just some of the names on the calendar, but one name outside the tech space is catching our eye. It's been a choppy year for McDonald's and the fast food giant will report Wednesday in the shadow. Chipotle's burrito breakdown blow out. To the downside, I like to say options traders are betting on a big move in the stock. So, Mike, what do you see as the trade here?
- [41:10]
Mike Koh
Yeah, I guess it's all relative. A big move for McDonald's is about a little over 3%, which is what the options market is expecting the day they report. But that's big for, for McDonald's which is actually average about 2%. Actually, after they report, I think this one's going to remain heavy. It is trading a little bit more expensive than its historical multiple. And it does seem like there is some pressure on that side of the consumer base. So my inclination is to take advantage of the fact that options aren't hugely expensive out in December. And by the $2.90, $2.75 put spread, that would cost you about $3.60. That's a way to make a bearish bet with very limited risk if you are inclined to press a bearish bet here.
- [41:49]
Melissa Lee
Tim, how are you feeling about McDonald's and the whole notion of the, you know, consumer feeling pressure, but also the notion that there could be trade down to McDonald's?
- [41:57]
Tim Seymour
Yeah, I think there's a safety net for McDonald's and I think the comps are not terrible. I think the valuation is kind of in line with where it's been. You know, it's just hard to get really excited here. And also I think the grab of the, call it the lower income segment to McDonald's also comes with a price and it comes with some promotion and some Happy Meals and whatnot. It's McDonald's market to push everyone else around and in a weaker backdrop. This is, this is the, the big one. I just think you don't have to own it here. And I'd probably be doing nothing in earnings.
- [42:27]
Karen Feideman
So I've been watching Kava for a long time. I've owned zero the entire time. It hit 151, it's 53 and change now. And although that report out of Chipotle talking about that 25 to 35, that 100,000, that.
- [42:42]
Melissa Lee
Right.
- [42:42]
Karen Feideman
That is very concerning. So cover is still not cheap. And now, you know, I'm like, oh, now it's at the price that I really would have liked it. Oh, but now it's, it's still not cheap enough. So I have none. It's the bottom line.
- [42:55]
Steve Grasso
I think CMG gave you an opportunity here. When you look at the chart, I give it another day or so.
- [42:59]
Barton Crockett
Right.
- [43:00]
Steve Grasso
To get to that three day rule. But, but I'd be looking to bargain hunt on cmg. I think the market took way too much out of it on that news.
- [43:07]
Melissa Lee
Yeah. Mike, what's your thought on cmg?
- [43:10]
Mike Koh
Yeah, I mean from a valuation perspective, it's probably the cheapest turn to forward numbers that we've seen in this name in a while. But you know, it still looks a little heavy to me. And the options markets, you know, we did see an uptick in call buying in Chipotle but the uptick in put buying was even larger. So they haven't quite turned the sentiment around in this one yet, I don't think.
- [43:30]
Melissa Lee
All right, up next, final trades. Time for the final trade. Let's go around the horn. Mike.
- [43:44]
Mike Koh
Co. Yeah, Metta is down, but the options premiums are up. I think you can enter the stock by selling some cash covered puts.
- [43:51]
Melissa Lee
Tim Seymour.
- [43:52]
Tim Seymour
Happy Halloween. It's been a little scary out there in China tech land. It's all relative. In fact, this bit of a bottom of the uptrend on kweb. I think you get back in, Karen.
- [44:05]
Karen Feideman
Yes. So if I own none of Amazon, would I buy it? Yes, I would. Amazon.
- [44:10]
Steve Grasso
Steven, I think after the week we've had for Roku, you're going to see a bunch of price targets raised on the street.
- [44:16]
Melissa Lee
Roku Final Trip thank you for watching half Fast Money have a safe Halloween. Mad Money starts right now.
- [44:21]
Emily Wilkins
All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of cnbc, NBC Universal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer CNBC's Changemakers 2026 list spotlighting women who innovate, lead boldly, and are transforming business. Do you know someone who is rewriting the future? Nominate them now@cnbc.com changemakers.