CNBC Fast Money – Episode Summary

Date: October 31, 2025
Host: Melissa Lee
Panelists: Tim Seymour, Karen Feideman, Steve Grasso, Mike Koh
Special Guests: Gene Munster (Deepwater Asset Management), Barton Crockett (Rosenblatt Securities), Cosmo Jiang (Pantera Capital), Emily Wilkins (CNBC Washington)

Episode Overview

This Halloween episode of CNBC’s "Fast Money" provided a spirited wrap-up of October's strong market performance, a deep dive into tech and energy earnings, and sharp analysis of breaking news, including Netflix’s reported bid for Warner Brothers assets and the extended government shutdown's consumer impact. The panel debated the "haves and have-nots" among tech giants, the future of AI spending, crypto’s current cycle, streaming industry deal chatter, and actionable options strategies for major stocks ahead of another busy earnings week.

Key Segments & Insights

1. October Market Performance & Tech Earnings

[00:46–06:52]

• October’s Surprise Rally: Traditionally tough for markets, October 2025 finished with solid gains—Dow, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 each up for a sixth straight month, NASDAQ leading with its seventh straight monthly gain.

• Tech Winners & Losers:

  • Amazon: Surged 9% this week, with U.S. cloud growth surpassing expectations.
  • Meta: Dropped 12% due to higher than expected CapEx guidance, overshadowing strong revenue.
  • Alphabet (Google): Praised for valuation and steady performance.
  • Quote – Tim Seymour [02:27]:
    "Google’s numbers this week really make them the clear big winner…most sensible on valuation."

• Stock Picks in Context:

  • Panelists leaned toward Amazon and Google in the near term.
  • Tim Seymour highlighted Alphabet as “the stock pick of the week.”

• Meta’s Spending Debate:

  • Karen Feideman [03:26]:
    “Guidance about CapEx…is huge and bigger than I’d like it to be.”
  • Panelists agree Zuckerberg may not care about current stock price, and CapEx could still be throttled.

• On Meta’s Users:

  • Steve Grasso [05:41]:
    “3.5 billion users still on Facebook…that user base is always worth something.”

2. Comparing Tech & Retail Giants: Amazon vs. Walmart

[08:07–10:57]

• Multiple & Margin Analysis:
  • Karen weighs forward P/E and business models, leaning Amazon over Walmart “for the next dollar at least.”
  • Melissa notes Walmart’s defensive stability in potential downturns.
  • Tim and Steve discuss digital potential for Walmart, but consensus is Amazon is preferable for growth.

3. Special Guest: Gene Munster on Mega-Cap Tech and AI Spend

[11:13–16:39]

• Underrated Winner:
  • Gene Munster [11:36]:
    “The hidden winner this week was Nvidia…the stock didn’t really act like that because investors still struggle with a $5 trillion market cap.”
• Big Tech Moats:
  • Apple’s iPhone upgrade cycle, Google’s persistent search dominance, and Meta’s accelerating daily active users all spotlighted.
• AI Spending Sustainability:
  • AI now drives 92% of U.S. GDP growth for the first half of 2025 (per Steve Grasso/ Gene Munster).
  • CapEx growth is expected to slow eventually, but the “mind-bending” numbers are likely to continue for several years.

4. AI Infrastructure Debate: Nvidia vs. Hyperscalers

[17:11–19:18]

• Panel Take:
  • Tim Seymour [17:11]:
    “Nvidia…is an AI infrastructure company…and they’re reinvesting in those folks that will be…major clients. I kind of like it.”
  • Mike Koh [18:19]:
    “$5 trillion is a very hard number for anybody…supported by a lot of other very profitable businesses buying their products. This has got a couple more years to run.”

5. Energy Earnings & Sector Outlook

[20:00–22:50]

• Chevron & Exxon:
  • Strong Q3 reports. Chevron rose 3% on daily production and upcoming Hess deal.
  • Steve & Tim: Integrated majors are efficient, can weather low oil prices.
  • Karen: Record production, but oil service names (like Halliburton) could offer value if sector recovers.
  • Mike prefers oil services over integrated oil for growth.

6. Netflix Eyeing Warner Brothers Assets – Streaming Shakeup?

[28:01–33:40]

• News: Netflix considering a bid for Warner Brothers assets, with both stocks rising; Netflix also announced a 10-for-1 stock split.
• Expert Analysis:
  • Barton Crockett (Rosenblatt Securities) [29:14]:
    “Warner Bros. is toe to toe with Disney…but Netflix’s strategy is streaming-first…hard to see how those would fit together.”
  • Cultural and strategic hurdles for Netflix to buy a major box office-driven studio.
  • Library-only deals are limited in value due to need for steady new production.
  • Comcast considered a possible (though unlikely) acquirer due to stock pressure.
• Panel Reflection:
  • Tim Seymour [32:47]:
    “Feels like there’s really one buyer for WBD and it’s Peace Sky…Paramount could bring together ‘old’ and ‘new’ Hollywood.”

7. Crypto Markets & New ETFs

[35:09–39:41]

• Major Coins & New Products:
  • Bitcoin, Solana, and Ethereum all down for the week; bitwise launches first-ever spot Solana ETF.
  • Cosmo Jiang (Pantera Capital):
    • Noted continued strong inflows into Bitcoin ETFs—“more into Bitcoin ETFs than into the NASDAQ!” [35:24]
    • Pantera now most exposed to Solana (“coming of age moment for Solana”), highlighting Bitwise’s Solana ETF launch.
    • Rising interest in “digital asset treasuries” (companies holding large token reserves, offering active management relative to passive ETFs).
    • Future for stablecoins: seamless adoption and UX; multiple stablecoins will coexist with increasing compatibility.
  • Mike Koh: Despite recent crypto price weakness, still sees value—“strategic way to play” is through names like MicroStrategy.

8. Federal Government Shutdown & Consumer Impact

[24:10–28:01]

• SNAP Benefits & Economic Impact:
  • Emily Wilkins reports on federal judges ordering continued SNAP payments despite the ongoing shutdown.
  • 42 million Americans affected; potential GDP impact minor (about 35bps for a 6-week shutdown), but significant for the most vulnerable.
  • Panelists agree that the shutdown’s market impact has been minimal, historically and likely now.

9. Options Action: McDonald's & Restaurant Stocks

[41:09–43:29]

• McDonald’s Earnings Play:
  • Options market pricing ~3% post-earnings move (above average).
  • Mike Koh: Favors a bearish put spread as MCD trades above historical P/E and faces consumer headwinds.
  • Tim Seymour: Not excited; “hard to get really excited here.”
• Other Fast-Casual Names:
  • Karen Feideman: Still waiting for better value in Kava; Chipotle (CMG) may be a bargain after recent selloff, Steve Grasso and Mike Koh see value but note heavy options put activity.

10. Closing Final Trades

[43:43–44:15]

• Mike Koh: Meta—enter via selling cash-covered puts.
• Tim Seymour: China tech ETF (KWEB)—possible opportunity after weakness.
• Karen Feideman: Amazon—worth buying here.
• Steve Grasso: Roku—anticipates price target upgrades after a strong week.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• Tim Seymour on Alphabet [02:27]:
  “Google’s numbers this week really make them the clear big winner…most sensible on valuation.”

• Steve Grasso on Meta user base [05:41]:
  “3.5 billion users still on Facebook…that user base is always worth something.”

• Gene Munster on Nvidia [11:36]:
  “The hidden winner this week was Nvidia…the stock didn’t really act like that because investors still struggle with a $5 trillion market cap.”

• Barton Crockett on Netflix buying Warner Bros. [29:14]:
  “Netflix’s stated strategy is streaming first and really box office hardly ever. It’s hard to see how those would culturally fit together.”

• Cosmo Jiang on ETF flows [35:24]:
  “The fact that there’s been more inflows into the Bitcoin ETFs than into the NASDAQ is pretty incredible.”

Key Timestamps

• [00:46] – Market wrap & tech earnings summary
• [02:27] – Alphabet as “big winner” in tech
• [05:41] – Meta’s enduring user value
• [08:07] – Amazon vs. Walmart debate
• [11:36] – Gene Munster: Nvidia and the AI spend boom
• [17:11] – Nvidia vs. Cloud Giants: AI infrastructure trade
• [20:00] – Chevron & Exxon earnings recap
• [29:14] – Barton Crockett: Netflix–Warner Bros. cultural mismatch
• [35:24] – Cosmo Jiang: Crypto ETF inflows trump NASDAQ
• [41:09] – Options action: McDonald’s earnings trade
• [43:43] – Final trades

Closing Tone

The team dissected October’s surprisingly strong finish, weighed caution vs. opportunity in big tech and energy, looked toward M&A turbulence in streaming, and provided actionable picks for the weeks ahead—all with the trademark blend of candor, numbers, and Wall Street wit.