Meta And Microsoft Move On Earnings… And Ethereum’s Massive 10 Year Run 7/30/25

Summary

CNBC's "Fast Money" Podcast Summary: Meta and Microsoft Earnings, Fed Insights, and Ethereum’s Decade-Long Surge (07/30/25)

Release Date: July 30, 2025

Introduction

In this episode of CNBC's "Fast Money," host Melissa Lee, alongside a panel of top traders—Karen Feiderman, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami, and Michael Kintopoulos—dives deep into a whirlwind of financial developments. The focal points include a monumental night of earnings reports from tech giants Meta and Microsoft, insights from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on interest rates and inflation, and a celebratory look at Ethereum’s astounding 10-year performance. Additionally, the panel examines earnings from Qualcomm and Ford, explores the impact of rising tariffs, and discusses the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency investment.

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1. Monster Night of Earnings: Meta and Microsoft Lead the Charge

The episode opens with an electrifying discussion on the staggering earnings reports released by Meta and Microsoft, marking a significant day in the stock market.

• Microsoft’s Stellar Performance

  Timestamp: [00:45]

  Steve Kovac highlights Microsoft's robust earnings, noting, “revenue beating expectation and is up 18% year over year to $76.4 billion. EPS was a beat as well, and Azure growth smashing expectations up 39%” ([02:52]). The revelation that Microsoft has disclosed its Azure cloud revenue for the first time underscores its pivotal role in the company’s growth strategy. The panelists commend Microsoft's strategic investments, with Guy Adami observing, “Azure beat a couple percent off a 31% that was last quarter. Now you're talking about more than a 10% beat off of the expectations here. It is pretty astounding” ([03:11]).

  Michael Kintopoulos adds, “the underlying business, the productivity business process, that was also good. This is really exciting” ([05:00]).

• Meta’s Impressive Earnings

  Timestamp: [09:00]

  Julia Borson discusses Meta’s earnings, emphasizing the company's AI advancements. “Zuckerberg saying they've begun to see glimpses of their AI systems improving themselves and also superintelligence” ([07:28]). The panel notes Meta’s commitment to AI, with Gene Munster stating, “the market is reacting basically in this visionary view” ([38:34]). Meta’s stock surged following the announcement of accelerated capex growth, reinforcing investor confidence in the company's AI-driven future.

Notable Quotes:

• “revenue beating expectation and is up 18% year over year to $76.4 billion” — Steve Kovac ([02:52])
• “Azure growth smashing expectations up 39%” — Steve Kovac ([02:52])
• “Azure for the first time… seems like that’s going to be a new annual cadence” — Steve Kovac ([02:52])

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2. Fed Chair Powell’s Insights: Rate Cuts and Inflation Concerns

A significant portion of the discussion centers on the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates amidst ongoing inflationary pressures.

Timestamp: [12:06]

Steve Liesman summarizes Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks: “Fed Chair Jerome Powell said no decision had been made on a September rate cut… Inflation is still above target” ([13:18]). Powell’s comments suggest a cautious approach, with the Fed prioritizing inflation control over immediate rate reductions.

Guy Adami elaborates on the uncertainties surrounding trade and tariffs, impacting the Fed’s decisions: “a lot more to come” ([13:35]).

Julia Borson probes deeper, asking if Powell hinted at potential rate hikes: “Chair Powell almost hinted that he would be open to hike rates at some point” ([14:51]). Steve Liesman counters, emphasizing Powell’s focus on managing inflation without signaling imminent rate cuts: “the base case is that this ends up being a one-time price increase” ([15:22]).

Market Impact:

The panel discusses the market's reaction to Powell’s statements, highlighting shifts in bond yields and the dollar, and the resultant movement in major indices. Dan Nathan remarks, “If you've been enjoying this move in Microsoft and it's been incredible since April, this is the quarter that you've been waiting for I think to take this money off the table” ([03:42]).

Notable Quotes:

• “no decision had been made on a September rate cut” — Steve Liesman ([13:18])
• “base case is that this ends up being a one-time price increase” — Steve Liesman ([15:22])

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3. Ethereum’s Decade-Long Ascent: A Milestone Celebration

Celebrating Ethereum’s 10th anniversary, the panel welcomes Joe Lubin, co-founder of Ethereum and chairman of Sharply Gaming, to discuss the cryptocurrency’s remarkable journey and future trajectory.

• Ethereum’s Growth and Future Prospects

  Timestamp: [30:48]

  Joe Lubin highlights Ethereum’s evolution: “it is our broadband moment and the treasury companies are accelerating that and stablecoins are accelerating that” ([32:05]). He underscores Ethereum’s foundational role in decentralized finance (DeFi) and its potential to revolutionize global economic systems.

  Karen Feiderman expands on Ethereum’s utility beyond finance: “decentralized physical infrastructure, decentralized networks of decentralized social graphs are about to get big in this next decade of Ethereum” ([35:57]).

• Market and Ecosystem Resilience

  Timestamp: [34:09]

  Joe defends Ethereum against emerging competitors: “Ethereum is actually orders of magnitude larger than any other ecosystem” ([35:57]). He attributes Ethereum’s sustained dominance to its mature ecosystem and continuous innovation.

Notable Quotes:

• “it is our broadband moment” — Joe Lubin ([32:05])
• “Ethereum is actually orders of magnitude larger than any other ecosystem” — Karen Feiderman ([35:57])

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4. Qualcomm’s Earnings Beat Amidst Market Challenges

Qualcomm reported better-than-expected earnings, driven by strengths in automotive and Internet of Things (IoT) sectors, despite soft smartphone sales.

Timestamp: [21:29]

Christina Parts details Qualcomm’s performance: “Sales from non-Apple customers rose 15% year over year as the company continues to wind down its relationship with Apple” ([25:32]). However, the stock experienced a 5.7% drop post-earnings, attributed to investor concerns over future growth and valuation.

Dan Nathan suggests, “Are they late to the wrong games? Probably. But there's value here” ([23:14]). The panel debates whether Qualcomm is appropriately valued, considering its strategic shifts towards AI and data center integrations.

Notable Quotes:

• “Sales from non-Apple customers rose 15% year over year” — Christina Parts ([25:32])
• “Is there value here? Absolutely” — Dan Nathan ([23:14])

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5. Ford’s Earnings and Tariff Pressures

Ford’s earnings showcased a revenue beat; however, the automaker faces significant headwinds from tariffs impacting its bottom line.

Timestamp: [25:03]

Philippeau reports Ford’s earnings: “$800 million was the headwind from tariffs… guidance is that the full year impact will be $2 billion” ([25:32]). Jim Farley, Ford’s CEO, emphasized the company’s commitment to mitigating tariff impacts and maintaining its investment in electric vehicles (EVs).

Dan Nathan observes, “In 1985, Ford was trading well. Guess where Ford is trading now… so no compelling reason probably bought” ([27:33]), suggesting skepticism about the stock’s long-term value amidst ongoing challenges.

Notable Quotes:

• “$800 million was the headwind from tariffs” — Philippeau ([25:32])
• “We have a lot of layers of tariffs on imported parts” — Jim Farley ([27:20])

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6. Tariffs and Their Economic Impact

The panel delves into the broader implications of rising tariffs, citing Adidas and other companies grappling with increased costs.

Timestamp: [42:28]

Julia Borson discusses Adidas: “a more than $230 million dollar hit from tariffs in the second half” ([43:01]). The resultant increase in consumer prices poses a dilemma for corporations balancing margin preservation and competitive pricing.

Guy Adami breaks down the economic ripple effects, noting, “someone has to pay for tariffs, whether it’s corporate margins have to go down or inflation has to go up” ([24:45]).

Notable Quotes:

• “someone has to pay for tariffs” — Julia Borson ([24:45])
• “they’re very committed to supporting companies like Ford” — Jim Farley ([27:20])

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7. Other Market Movements and Highlights

The episode also touches on the performance of other companies and sectors:

• Robinhood’s Growth: Despite a slight after-hours dip, Robinhood reports a 65% rise in transaction-based revenues and nearly doubling crypto revenue to $165 million.

• MGM and ARM Holdings: MGM beats top and bottom-line expectations, while ARM Holdings misses revenue estimates, leading to mixed investor sentiments.

• Figma’s IPO Success: Software company Figma prices its IPO at $33, exceeding expectations and indicating strong market appetite for tech stocks.

Notable Quotes:

• “Robinhood is at the forefront of crypto” — Guy Adami ([30:48])
• “Figma will be a good sentiment indicator” — Guy Adami ([44:07])

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Conclusion: Key Takeaways and Future Outlook

As the episode wraps up, the panel reflects on the interconnectedness of earnings reports, Fed policies, and global economic factors shaping the investment landscape.

• Earnings as Market Drivers: Strong performances from Meta and Microsoft signify the critical role of tech giants in driving market momentum. Their aggressive AI investments and capex growth set a bullish tone for the sector.

• Fed’s Cautious Stance: Jerome Powell’s reluctance to commit to immediate rate cuts amidst persistent inflation suggests a period of economic balancing, influencing investor strategies and market volatility.

• Ethereum’s Continuing Ascent: Celebrating a decade of growth, Ethereum stands as a testament to blockchain’s potential, with Joe Lubin projecting transformative impacts on global finance and decentralized applications.

• Tariff Pressures: Rising tariffs present challenges across industries, from automotive to consumer goods, necessitating strategic adjustments from corporations to maintain profitability.

• Future Predictions: The panel anticipates ongoing market volatility influenced by Fed policies, geopolitical tensions, and technological advancements, urging investors to stay informed and adaptable.

Final Thoughts:

Melissa Lee concludes the episode by emphasizing the importance of staying attuned to earnings reports, macroeconomic indicators, and emerging technologies to navigate the ever-evolving financial landscape successfully.

Notable Quotes:

• “you need earnings and earnings growth and we're getting it from the big names” — Dan Nathan ([18:03])
• “this is a big moment based on these two companies reports and I think to answer your question is I do think we're going to see a rerating” — Gene Munster ([40:05])

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Stay Informed: For more insights and real-time updates, visit Fast Money on CNBC.

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Disclaimer: All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates. This summary is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.

Transcript

[Melissa Lee]

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[Karen Feiderman]

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[Melissa Lee]

Stay ahead. Live from the NASDAQ markets out in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. A monster night of earnings and some monster moves in the stocks. Nearly $6 trillion worth of companies reporting tonight. We are dialed into the calls we're bringing you all trades plus not ready yet. Fed Chair Powell raining in hopes that a rate cut is coming soon. Taking a bite out of the markets rally. What he said and how markets should read into the action. And 10 years strong. Ethereum marking the milestone today as a crypto continues to rally. We talk with the co founder Joe Lubin about what is next. I'm Melissa Lee. Come to you live from Studio B at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Karen Feiderman, Dan Nathan Gai Adami and Michael Kintopoulos, deputy chief investment Officer at Richard Bernstein Advisors. And we start off with what that monster night of earnings. Microsoft Medic, all comm and more reporting results in just the last hour. We've got full team coverage breaking down all the numbers. Julia Borson's watching Matta, Christina Parts Neville has got the details on Qualcomm. Philippeau is driving into Ford. But we start off with Steve Kovac who's dialed into Microsoft which joins in video in the $4 trillion club with its after hours move here. Steve, blockbuster report, Mel just beats across the board on all the metrics that we pay so much attention to. And Microsoft disclosed Azure cloud re revenue for the very first time. We'll get to that in a second. But first, revenue beating expectation and is up 18% year over year to $76.4 billion. EPS was a beat as well. And Azure growth smashing expectations up 39%. Street wanted to see it up 34.4%. And Azure for the first time like I said full year 2025, fiscal year sales more than $75 billion. Microsoft saying that's up 34% from fiscal year 2024. This is the first time Microsoft has disclosed that and it seems like that's going to be a new annual cadence for that big Azure number. As for capex for that the quarter that just passed a bit over $24 billion. But on the call we're going to get our first look at Capex expectations for fiscal year 2026 at least for the current quarter.

[Guy Adami]

If you want we can multiply that by four and get a little bit of an idea what the next fiscal.

[Melissa Lee]

Year of Capex spending looks like for artificial intelligence.

[Guy Adami]

Plus we'll get some standard guidance.

[Melissa Lee]

Call kicks off at 530.

[Guy Adami]

I'll be back when we get those numbers now Steve.

[Melissa Lee]

Thanks. Steve Kovac beats across the board here. Stocks up 7%. Guy, what do you make of justifiable.

[Dan Nathan]

I mean the revenue, the as A revenue growth 39% is staggering and 45% now operating margins good for them and it's probably a justified move at least for now and we'll wait and see what they have to say on the call. But again even with this type of growth, even with these kinds of numbers, I mean it's not a cheap stock. I don't think it has not been all time high based on this move right here. Let's hear what they have to say. But I think if you've been enjoyed this move in Microsoft and it's been incredible since April, this is the quarter that you've been waiting for I think to take this money off the table.

[Guy Adami]

Yeah. So incredible versus April at the lows the stocks up 50%. That's not including this gap right here. When you go back to early May when they reported that Q3 result, the stock did have a beat. And when you think about the Azure beat a couple percent off a 31% that was last quarter. Now you're talking about more than a 10% beat off of the expectations here. It is pretty astounding the fact that they're breaking out that Azure number now tells you that they are ready to kind of get at least the leverage on a lot of those investments that they've been making. But I think it's important to note that if you look at the revenue for this quarter and the CapEx that they spent, I think it was about 24, 25. It's still 31% of their revenue. Right. And so it either speaks to the fact that they Continue to build in a way that they're looking out to the future or they continue to feel like they are capacity constraint, which I guess, and you've been making this argument, they're both good scenarios right now. And unless you see some sort of broader slowdown, which I would have expected, you see some sort of digestion at some point. Because right now, and when I know we're going to talk about matter, but there's a handful of companies that are really monetizing AI right now, and they happen to be Microsoft and Metta. But To Guy's point, two consecutive now looks like 8% gaps after earnings. This one's different than last quarter because last quarter the Stock was down 15% from those recent highs. Now the stock is literally going into this print up 50% off those lows.

[Michael Kintopoulos]

Right. So I mean, the underlying business, well, the more historic, you know, productivity business process, that was also good. This highlight, that was so much better. It's sort of a bigger beat. And for all the points you've been saying, you know, we saw Google Cloud also, very nice growth. Microsoft here, very nice growth. We're going to see Amazon tomorrow, I would suspect same thing. I mean, this is really exciting. This is to the extent that there was this narrative earlier in the year that I has, you know, not peaked, but it's already pricing in so much more growth. That is that. That was, I guess, as you would say, Mark Twain Guy.

[Dan Nathan]

Yes. The rumors of my demise greatly exaggerated. Yes.

[Michael Kintopoulos]

This is not. This is not slowing. This is an acceleration. And we'll hear. Exactly. Was Dan quoting me. And you. And I talk about this all the time. Delayed, is it. Delay is it demand? And Right. Demand is still there, but supply is not adequate. We'll see. But I mean, there's a lot to like here. And your point about it being already on an up trend going into this and yet jumping over the.

[Guy Adami]

Can I just be really clear? You've never wavered on this trade.

[Steve Liesman]

Not a bit.

[Guy Adami]

I mean that in two years. You know what I mean? So it's easy to try to poke holes in it, which maybe I have done a little bit. But here you are, look at this thing a couple of times. You know, it's over $4 trillion. It is literally a monster. And Guy's been saying this for, I think three or four years. This is probably one of the, what, top two, three, I believe in the world. And they're doing it. I mean, listen, you know, the fact that I'm like, yeah, have a ball. Maybe it's Over, I don't know.

[Michael Kintopoulos]

Yes, I agree with that and we.

[Melissa Lee]

Will get to the details of matter but investors wanted to see justification of the spend investor want to see confirmation of the story and here we have it. And feasibly, Michael, this is confirmation of the big cap tech trade here, the Mag 7 trade going strong.

[Julia Borson]

I mean it's certainly hard to push against that given what we've seen today, given what we saw last week. To me it suggests that things are actually still pretty good from a macro environment, right? I mean these companies are cyclical companies. They used to be asset light, they're not anymore. Now they're asset heavy. Right? So this I spend better payout because if it doesn't, it's a big issue. But listen, for now I think the story is clearly intact and you know, it's hard to bet against them. But if growth slows, if inflation is higher than expected, if rates continue to go up, they are long duration assets as Guy mentioned. They are, they're richly valued. You know, I would be, I'd be a little bit nervous.

[Melissa Lee]

Right? Let's get to the details on Meta now. That stock is also surging after reporting top and bottom line beats conference call kicking off at the top of the hour. Julia Borson joins us with the details. Julia? Melissa, Mark Zuckerberg just kicked off the earnings call on the heels of that across the board beat Zuckerberg saying they've begun to see glimpses of their AI systems improving themselves and also superintelligence, saying that their goal is to bring superintelligence to the masses, to everyone. The company did guide to higher third quarter revenue than expected and also raised the lower end its capex range for the year. Now capex is expected to be a key area of interest on this call as we look for more color on the company's guidance that expense growth will increase in 2026 on infrastructure and employee costs. We're also listening for some color on the ad market. What's driving that reacceleration of growth for Metta and also what their perspective is on the overall macro environment. I'm sure we'll also hear from Zuckerberg more about his focus on building superintelligence and when it'll start to pay off for the company's bottom line. We'll likely hear him say that this quarter's results show that the business is strong enough to support his ambitions. Melissa? All right, Julia, thank you. Keep us posted. Similar circumstance to Microsoft in terms of the positioning of the stock going into this quarter. It's up 31% or so since reporting the last quarter, but in recent weeks it sort of leveled off. So there's a little question in terms of the valuation here and how far it's come.

[Michael Kintopoulos]

Yeah, well, this report though is staggeringly good. Right? I mean there's so many metrics that to really like the growth family apps like daily active users, how did that keep growing? Right. I think if it's average revenue per person, also a very nice beat. There's so many things to like here. I really would caution you, wait for the call. We've seen things happen on the call that can move the stock very dramatically. It's been Capex the last few quarters, but let's wait to hear what it is. But on every metric though, this is really pretty stunning quarter.

[Melissa Lee]

Usually though, when we hear CapEx, it's negative that it's going up, but this time it could actually be positive. No, I feel like they've already been.

[Michael Kintopoulos]

Talking about it going up and we know the giant spend on hiring. Right. And at some point we want to see efficiency. But I mean there is a lot to love in this advertising doing great. I mean, I want to hear the call though.

[Dan Nathan]

Yeah, well, we've tried to point out and I think now it's bearing fruit. This is now, I think the fourth quarter where AI is helping them on the margin line. I mean 43% operating margins, I think the street was at 38%. And we've been consistent in saying this is one of the few companies, at least a few large companies, we talk about Wal Mart being another that's being able to lever AI in a way that goes right to the bottom line. So I'm with Karen in terms of wait for the call, but I'm also sort of in your camp. You know, the first time we heard capex from Facebook scared the you know what out of the market. The last few times they're not only giving them a pass, but I think they're rewarding them for it. So there's a lot to like here. Of course, the only problem is, I mean it's a pretty huge gap off of where we close. We'll see how it plays out.

[Guy Adami]

Yeah, you know, one of the things you just mentioned, the compensation packages. So they've been having some huge wins, taking some folks for maybe tens, if not hundreds of millions of dollars in pay packages across like a wide swath of, you know, call them acqui hires also over the last few months or so you could say, well, is that playing catch up? Is that A bit of desperation. We know that there's some performance issues with LAMA relative to some of the other lms and this kind of report demonstrates that they can do both. You know what I mean? They can continue to maintain capex, they can continue to hire at the pace in which they are. And I think the other thing is we talked about this a couple of months ago. They kind of quietly rolled out these free AI tools to their advertisers.

[Steve Liesman]

Right.

[Guy Adami]

And so they may be part of a beta program eventually, but it's like, okay, get these tools in the advertisers hands, take out some middlemen in the process, get them hooked on the tools. The models are all going to be commoditized. Llama is open source anyway. Right. And so maybe that's some of the benefit that they're getting in the near term from a, a revenue standpoint, seeing.

[Melissa Lee]

What Matter and Microsoft have reported. How do you feel about Google's report now?

[Michael Kintopoulos]

I feel okay. I thought I liked the Google report. The big question mark there is what are the remedies going to be from all the antitrust.

[Melissa Lee]

That's not right.

[Michael Kintopoulos]

One, one metric that I did want to point out. Average impression growth 11 versus expectations of 6.9.

[Melissa Lee]

Wow.

[Michael Kintopoulos]

I mean that is gigantic. Average price per ad change 9 versus 7.58 expected. I mean that those are huge numbers.

[Dan Nathan]

Yeah, it's real quick. I'm glad you said that because it puts in a. The Google quarter that I thought was excellent.

[Melissa Lee]

Right.

[Dan Nathan]

I don't want to say it pales in comparison to this, but it's nowhere near these two so I don't have it in front of me. I bet you Google's lower. If I had a bet, I bet you it's lower in the after hours.

[Melissa Lee]

It is a little bit lower because I did check on that because I was curious. I was curious.

[Dan Nathan]

You're in my head.

[Melissa Lee]

But even, even excluding the investigations, do you think, I mean.

[Dan Nathan]

No, I thought it was still investigations.

[Melissa Lee]

There are no remedies.

[Dan Nathan]

Look, I think the Google quote was still good. I mean I think it assuaged the concerns of a lot of people and just in terms of the search front. But I don't, I think again, given the context of what we just saw over the last hour, it's not nearly as good as I thought.

[Michael Kintopoulos]

Well, it's still the feel of the fear of search didn't happen this quarter. Right. Actually went the other way to the people's great surprise. But remember Google so much cheaper than.

[Melissa Lee]

Major markets taking a leg lower Midday, after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said no decision had been made on a September rate cut, though they did end off their worst levels of the session. Bond yields and the dollar moved higher or. Steve Liesman is in Washington with all the details from today's Fed meeting. Steve, inflation is still a concern here.

[Steve Liesman]

Yeah, the Fed is still above target. The big takeaway is Fed Chair Jay Powell and the Fuller Federal Market Committee making clear that a September rate cut is not a done deal. I asked the Fed Chair whether the central bank now has more clarity on the outlook since the President has struck several trade deals.

[Guy Adami]

The likely, you know, effective, effective level of tariffs is, is not moving around that much at this point. But at the same time there are many, many uncertainties left to res. So yes, we are learning more and more. It doesn't feel like we're very close to the end of that process and that's not for us to judge, but it feels like there's much more to come.

[Steve Liesman]

Importantly, that sentiment was echoed by the Fuller committee which said in the policy statement that uncertainty remains elevated. The result a fairly sizable move downwards in the probabilities for rate cuts this year. September now at 50% was 68 before the power presser, 67% now. So that first cut now seen in October, but take a look, not a second cut this year, December. Well, odds even, even odds on that 50% probability down from 67. January now the odds on bet. So really only one cut fully priced in for this year. Two governors did dissent, first time that's happened since 1993. Powell said he respected the government's argument, Governor's arguments for a quarter point cut now, but showed no sign of embracing the Melissa. If Powell and the Fed wanted to signal to the markets that a rate cut was coming in September, they know how to do that and do that very well. They didn't do it.

[Melissa Lee]

Yep. Michael has a question for you.

[Julia Borson]

Yes, Steve? Yeah, I don't know, maybe I'm reading into things a little bit too much here, but to me it seemed like Chair Powell almost hinted that, you know, he would be open to hike rates at some point. I mean he was pretty definitive in saying that tariffs will lead to inflation, that the base case should be a one off increase inflation. But they had every tool in the toolbox ready to go in case it was more than a one time inflation bump, as if he was prepping the market a little bit. What do you think about that?

[Steve Liesman]

I don't, I didn't hear it that way. He did say that. Hey, one sign of us not being all that hawkish is that we are not raising rates in the face of this inflation. I would add to sort of counter your point of view that Powell said the base case is that this ends up being a one time price increase. So that's the key. But remember the Fed has to make that so it is not going to seem like oh, tariffs increase prices and yada yada yada. There was no other inflation. No, it's Fed policy that will be central to the reason why. And it could be Fed policy in terms of what they're saying and Fed policy in terms of what they're doing or not doing, which is cutting rates to make sure the tariff inflation doesn't become broader inflation.

[Michael Kintopoulos]

Steve, it's Karen, thanks for being here. The GDP, GDP print this morning at 3% did that seem to maybe give him some cover that you know, the economy is doing just fine and maybe we really don't need to cut maybe.

[Steve Liesman]

A little political cover. But Karen, I think that Powell and the economists at the Fed are pretty wise to what's going on here, which is that growth is softening. And when I see that number this morning which average growth over the 2/4 being 1 1/4 percent, that final sales to domestic producers is, is down in a relatively anemic place. All that does for me is heighten the dilemma for the Fed which is it does have weaker growth, weaker growth that could cause it to, to cut rates. But it has this inflation problem both being above target inflation already and more inflation to come. Goldman Sachs saying a report this morning that about only half of the of the effective tariff rate is seen in the economy. They think it's going a 14 percentage point increase. They've only seen seven of it so far. So there is more to come and that's one of the things staying in the Fed's hand right now.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, Steve, thank you. Steve Liesman joining us from Washington. Guy, so what do you, I mean we had just had, we just went through two reports. Gangbusters, stocks up two of the biggest companies in the world effectively. And then we have this what matters.

[Dan Nathan]

More, GDP report in terms of strong economy. So you know, what's the rush? I'm sort of with Michael on this one. So what's the take? What's important? Well, I think at the crux of all this, earnings are still as they used to say, the mother's milk of this entire thing. You need earnings and earnings growth and we're getting it from the big names. We're also getting Valuations that are extended. But this, to me, of all the takeaways from the Fed, I think he was asked about housing and he basically said, you just not build enough homes. The Fed does not set mortgage rates.

[Melissa Lee]

Right. Nor do you control the long end of the curve.

[Dan Nathan]

Well, and that's something we've been saying. So for all the people out there that are trying to browbeat them into submission, they have nothing to do with that problem. And that will remain a problem regardless of what the Federal Reserve does.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, I want to throw this in too, because this is, this speaks to the inflationary impact of tariffs, potentially. Copper prices dropping after President Trump announced a 50% tariff on imports which will go into effect Friday. The move, which came after prices settled for the day, would be the biggest drop since 1989. Miners like Freeport, McNamara and Southern Copper also falling on the news. This is 50% on all copper imports. Semi finished copper, of course, this goes into all sorts of construction, et cetera. So we don't know what the full impact of, of any of these things are. And we don't know, you know, we know that China is under discussion. EU has a framework, Japan has a framework. We don't know what else is coming. Copper came, Brazil came too, by the way.

[Julia Borson]

Yeah, there's just still so much uncertainty out there. If you look at the trade deals that have been negotiated with our partners, there's very light on details. Very, very light on details. I think there's, I think there's tremendous uncertainty. So still, the one certainty is you can't have your cake and eat it too, Right? At the end of the day, someone has to pay for tariffs, whether it's corporate margins have to go down or inflation has to go up or some combination of the two. And in that world, the Fed just can't cut rates. The Fed just can't cut rates. And then you've got obviously an ultimatum out with Russia right now that's affecting oil prices. I mean, there's just way too much uncertainty. And it's the uncertainty that's going to cause the Fed to stay on hold for now.

[Melissa Lee]

Does your odds is the Michael Kadopoulos odds of a rate cut this year. What do you see?

[Julia Borson]

Much less than 50%. And I think what's ultimately going to happen, I think Chair Powell set the stage for it today is monetary policy works as much through markets as it does through policy. And I think he is going to talk away cuts. I mean, we already got the September cut basically priced out now. And I think he's going to continue that, especially if we see inflationary pressure and we'll probably have higher rates because of that.

[Guy Adami]

Right. So I'm not so good at math. I think I'm on here because of the pretty, pretty face, you know, no doubt moneymaker stuff. But all right, let's just do some. So 50% of our copper comes from outside the U.S. it's about $18 billion worth last year, 50% tariff. Somebody's got to eat that 9 billion. Right. And it's going to, it's going to work its way. So that's just one metal. Like we have lumber, we have, you know, steel. I mean the list goes on and on. And so, you know, I thought it was interesting that this, the Brazil this all happened Fed day. I think the president was trying to flex a little bit. He was trying to say, okay, we got this date. It came into today. He said we're sticking with August 1st. These came out in and around all this, you know, the Fed stuff. And again, I think that guy said this the other night that they probably feel at least from the stock market, the kind of the bond market is very stable, they got some room to play with a little bit. So but at the end of the day, if you're going to start doing this stuff, it will work itself into the economy because a lot of companies, they thought they had a little clarity and now they have much less clarity.

[Melissa Lee]

Coming up, more on tonight's big tech earnings with Microsoft's conference call kicking off in just a few minutes. The details from that and all the cars action from Qualcomm, Ford, Robinhood and more next. Plus, the next move in crypto as a theorem hits the decade mark the mind blowing run it's had in the last 10 years and where co founder Joe Lubin says it is heading next do not go anywhere. Fast money is back into the a.

[Guy Adami]

Key July jobs report. Is trade uncertainty impacting the economy and the labor market? What the data could mean for future rate cuts. Employment numbers and analysis squawk box Friday.

[Karen Feiderman]

8:30 Eastern and streaming on CNBC plus.

[Melissa Lee]

Welcome back to Fast MONEY and Earnings alert on Qualcomm. The stock taking a hit despite beating top and bottom Line estimates. CNBC's Christina Parts nebulous. Got all the details, Christina. Well, Mel, Qualcomm's diversification strategy is showing up in the numbers but it wasn't enough to impress investors, which you alluded to with the stock drop. The biggest maker of smartphone chips beat expectations thanks to strength in automotive and the Internet of things which includes smart Ray Ban glasses. Smartphone sales were a bit soft compared to estimates management warning a seasonally weaker quarter with no flagship launches. Added to that, Qualcomm did add a new data point. Sales from non Apple customers rose 15% year over year as the company continues to wind down its relationship with Apple. Right now the call is going on and they're getting a lot of questions about Apple, so perhaps that has to do with the stock drop. Also on the call, Qualcomm said it was planning to expand into data centers and sell versions of its chips that can be used for deploying AI. This is new. Qualcomm CEO said that Qualcomm was already in discussions with a major cloud company which essentially as a HyperScaler to supply AI chips. He didn't say who. He said that Qualcomm could start to see revenues in fiscal 2028. I also spoke with the CEO and CFO earlier, just maybe about an hour ago, and they confirmed they didn't see any demand pull forward due to tariff concerns. And they also said China remains a strong market, which they say was reflected in their upbeat guidance. Guys. All right, Christina. Thanks. Christina. Parts novelist stocks down 5.7%. Is there value here?

[Dan Nathan]

Yes, I think. Well, but I would have said that fifteen twenty dollars ago just. But is there value? Absolutely. I mean, are they late to the. In the wrong games? Probably. But it's amazing how people are willing to pay up for growth in a major way. And if you don't, if you're not on that side of the ledger, valuations don't matter. They're just going to sort of kick you to the curb. But Qualcomm here in the after hours probably trading 13 times ish next year's numbers with all the, I don't know, it looks, looks okay to me, Mel.

[Melissa Lee]

Kind of surprising that they had some strength in the automotive market, which is not what we heard from a lot of other Texas Instruments, P.I. or Jackson.

[Guy Adami]

Yeah. And you know, listen, they're a bit more diversified and you think about, well, not towards the handset market. If you think about Samsung, Huawei, Apple, they're about 50% of their revenues. And you know, we've heard mixed things on the handset front in general. It doesn't seem like there's going to be a big upgrade cycle. Clearly not at Apple. But I think the question is value. Do you want to buy value in a market like this? Do you want to buy value when somebody is a company like this that has kind of missed different cycles over the last call 10 years are saying this Tam or this kind of revenue that we're going to be able to, you know, attract or whatever you want to call it in 2028. You know what I mean? We're still in 2025, you know, like, so again, they're likely to kind of miss something. They're too kind of levered towards the handset market. And if you listen to a lot of these AI companies like OpenAI in general, they are not building product right now that are going to leverage cell phones, not in the next five to 10 years. Like, that's not part of the plan. So Qualcomm might get left, you know, kind of hold the bag a little bit here.

[Melissa Lee]

Coming up, we've got even more earnings to bring you forward. Robinhood, MGM and more out with results. The details in the numbers and the quarters next. You're watching FAST MONEY live from the NASDAQ marketsite in Times Square. Back right after this.

[Guy Adami]

A key July jobs report Is trade uncertainty impacting the economy and the labor market? What the data could mean for future rate cuts. Employment numbers and analysis Squawk Box Friday.

[Karen Feiderman]

8:30 Eastern and streaming on CNBC.

[Melissa Lee]

Welcome back to Fast Money. We have another earnings alert on Ford. That stock is lower despite the automaker beating revenue estimates. CNBC's Philippeau's got the details here. Philippines.

[Guy Adami]

Hey, Melissa, we're about 20 minutes into the analyst call. In fact, an analyst just asked Jim Farley, hey, given the change in what's happening with the EPA and Cafe, why don't you cut back even further on EVs? And Jim Farley basically said, no, we're still committed there. We'll talk about that in a little bit. Quickly, the main subject that I think a lot of people have with this earnings report, what's the impact of tariffs in the second quarter? $800 million was the headwind from tariffs. The estimate from the company, its guidance is that the full year impact will be $2 billion. Here's Jim Farley talking with us last hour about tariffs and the impact on Ford. We definitely want to reduce our tariff bill because we have a lot of layers of tariffs on imported parts. We make about 80% of our vehicles, but we still import parts from all over the world. And that's the opportunity to work with the administration. And they are very committed to supporting companies like Ford. All right. So how did each of the divisions at Ford do in the second quarter? All of them, their results were down relative to last year. Not a surprise given that last year was A much stronger market overall plus you had the tariff impact Commercial vehicles still made $2.32 billion internal combustion engine vehicles down to $661 million the losses in electric vehicles that's actually an increase compared to to the losses posted in the second quarter of last year finally their guidance for full year EBIT is coming down about a billion dollars it's going to be down to six and a half to $7.5 billion that's their guidance previously they were expecting between seven and 8.5 billion Melissa, I'm going to jump back on the call bottom line is this they are look they're like all the automakers they're talking about tariffs and the question is how do you mitigate that impact as much as possible possible?

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah Phil. Thank you bill. ABOW mitigating $2 billion is a tall task GM's tariff hit by the way was 1 billion so half of what Ford is predicting here how do we view these two?

[Dan Nathan]

Well in the game, in the self invoked game of would you rather it's GM but what you basically saying is neither one is particularly good I think the last I look we're in the year 20242025 that's right the calendar that's what it says right so in 1985 that's 40 years ago guess what? Guess where Ford was trading well I'll tell you where it's trading Trading right where it is now and that was an S and P by the way that was 250 which is now 6400 so if you went to bed 40 years ago, woke up today you'd be convinced Ford would be much higher given everything and it's not it's exact same price so no compelling reason probably bought.

[Guy Adami]

Back in stock like multiples of their current market cap cap if you think.

[Michael Kintopoulos]

Yeah, yeah yes well remember the GM did go bankrupt in the middle so we have to I forget where that would be the stock now however self would you gathering as well GM I think they're just able to handle it better it's incredibly cheap has been for a while I didn't do a good job trading this one but I do find it compelling I think this just.

[Julia Borson]

Shows the the impact of tariffs and you know the market trading at all time highs a little bit obfuscated by what's going on with you know Meta and video and Microsoft but but the broader market is probably going to see much lower earnings over the coming quarters than what the broad market's expecting I think if you look at facts that consensus earnings estimates are about 10% year over year in 2025. I mean you could see that miss meaningfully as you get out to Q3 and Q4.

[Melissa Lee]

Coming up, 10 years in and a casual 700,000% gain. Ethereum co founder Joe Lubin will join us next to discuss the crypto's massive climb into the mainstream and where he sees the coin heading next. Fast Money's back into. Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks closing well off their highs of the day after Fed chair Jerome Powell brushed off pressure from the President to cut rates. The Dow falling 171 points. The S&P down about a tenth of a percent. The Nasdaq with a small gain. Some big moves from morning results. Generic up nearly 20% after an earnings beat. It was the best performer in the S and P. Teradine just behind it on better than expected results. And Humana climbing more than 12% after hiking guidance. And some more after hours action. MGM beating top and bottom line expectations. ARM holdings lower after missing revenue estimates. EBay topping EPS and revenue expectations as well as hiking Q3 guidance. And Carvana higher after beating top and bottom line expectations as well. And Robinhood slightly higher after hours. The financial services platform beating expectations, saying transaction based revenues rose 65% from last year. Crypto revenue nearly doubling to $165 million. The conference call kicked off at the top of the hour. Dan, what's your trade on this one?

[Guy Adami]

I mean, listen, the Robinhood people, they love crypto. I mean that's one thing, crypto and options. And I think that's, that's something we've been tracking over the last year and a half or so. And I think that a lot of it has to do with the fact it's no longer this kind of trading app where you get a lot of confetti when you buy the Bitcoin or the Ethereum, that sort of thing. And so they've kind of grown into these sorts of asset classes. And then the more, you know, you have access to these products and the people want to trade them. So to me, I mean, Robinhood's at the forefront of it right now and.

[Melissa Lee]

We'Ve got a birthday to celebrate. Oh, etherium celebrating its 10 year anniversary. The crypto has risen more than 700,000% since then. In recent weeks, companies have begun building Ethereum treasury funds. Sharply Gaming is one of those names hoping to become the world's largest corporate holder of the coin. Joe Lubin is chairman of Sharply Gaming. He's also, by the way the co founder of Ethereum. Joe, great to have you with us. Thanks so much. Has happened in 10 years. Recently though, people are getting jazzed again about Etherium, about Ether because of the passage of the Genius Act. How important is that to the trajectory trajectory that you see ahead?

[Karen Feiderman]

Yeah, so it's because of the passing of the act and the embracing of Ethereum by the current administration, legislators, etc. It's also because we've been building enabling infrastructure for 10 years and we're scalable enough and affordable enough and usable enough legal now for builders and companies to, to entertain using tokens or issuing tokens or benefiting from defi. So it is our broadband moment and the treasury companies are accelerating that and stablecoins are accelerating that. And our 10th anniversary really coincides in almost an accidental way with us going mainstream.

[Melissa Lee]

There is a metaphor, you know, Bitcoin is digital gold, Etherium is digital oil. Because of what you enable to happen in terms of defi and in contracts etc. Where do you see that ratio, the Bitcoin Etherium ratio going? Should there be a closure in that, in the gap? I mean, should Ethereum ultimately, I mean, I guess I'm asking you like, do you love your child? But should Ethereum be more valuable?

[Karen Feiderman]

Ultimately our child is off the charts. So we, we like the metaphor of digital oil. There are a bunch of different metaphors for what a theorem will be because it's just so broadly capable. It is going to be the natural evolution of the Internet protocols in the World Wide Web. It is going to be the main functional components of Web3, the re decentralized web. We like to think of Ethereum as a new kind of software trustware. And we like to think of trust in a new way as a, as a virtual commodity where Ether is the highest octane trust commodity in the world. And so if you can imagine making all transactions and processes and agreements and relationships much more trustworthy, automatically trustworthy, guaranteed execution, verifiability, transparency. What is that going to do to all of those things? What's it going to do to the global economy? So if Bitcoin's $20 trillion in value, what is the global economy sitting on web3 rails supercharged by decentralized trust? I think we talked about the flipping where Ether will eclipse the monetary base size of Bitcoin. Some people that think that will never happen, some people think that'll take a few years. I think we may see astonishing things in the next year or so, especially with these treasury companies driving things.

[Michael Kintopoulos]

So first of all congratulations on your very beautiful baby. That's worked out nice for you. So so many other coins they want to be or they they think they're going to be better than a theory that's sort of who everyone at now.

[Karen Feiderman]

Yes.

[Michael Kintopoulos]

And are any of those do you think think a a real threat to you?

[Karen Feiderman]

So for years we've had so many ethereal Ethereum killers come and go. It usually starts with the kernel of a good idea. Passionate founders who maybe want to go for the big prize. Rather than building in an already thriving ecosystem. It gets supercharged by VCs who see this way of, of growing a protocol, making lots of money and, and selling their tokens early to. To retail. That gets exacerbated by journalists who like to click bait. The death of Ethereum, the death of Bitcoin even. So so, so I know the bad, the bad journalists and so so it's really that triumvirate that believes that that Etherium has a chance of being dethroned. But Ethereum is actually orders of magnitude larger than any other ecosystem. Bitcoin's a different special snowflake. But there's. There's never been any other ecosystem that is as big as has as much talent as and is as mature as the ecosystem.

[Guy Adami]

So Joe, if we're going to see 1, 2 trillion, 3 trillion right in market cap for Ethereum, what aside from defi do you think would be some of the utilities that might drive that sort of adoption of the underlying.

[Karen Feiderman]

Sure. So stablecoins going to be giant. America recently recognized that austerity is un American and so Bessant pivoted and said okay, we're going to grow our way out of this, this dead hole. And what that looks like is deregulation and making use of our protocols. More, more legislation. It involves reformatting trade relationships, keeping the dollar strong politically while weakening the dollar in terms of exchange rates. And what that means is essentially a free dollarization of the world via these stablecoins. It's wonderful for people in difficult nation states to be able to access stores of value so they can preserve their assets. Not so good if you're a tyrant in one of those nation states and you can't exploit and financially repress your population. So we're going to see that as a major political force. And decentralized physical infrastructure, decentralized or networks of decentralized social graphs are about to get big in this next decade of a theorem. So if you can imagine that people will have their own decentralized identity, have their own digital twin AI ally that they're interoperating with. Be able to establish their own social graphs and link them up to other people's social graphs. Be able to tokenize them beyond platforms where you can add content to them and functionality. You can monetize your social graphs. You can pay people via tokens for adding value to your social graph. So that's the next major wave and soon all applications I believe will be able to speak token will be sitting on decentralized protocol Rails and we'll also be sitting on decentralized social graphs.

[Melissa Lee]

Joe, great to see you. Thank you. Hope you'll come back and talk about sharply specifically we didn't get a chance to do that. Joe Lubin, Coming up, we are checking in on Meta and Microsoft's after hours moves. With Microsoft's conference call underway right now, the headlines from that one when Fast Money returns. Welcome back to Fast Money. Another check on big tech earnings. Meta near after hours highs closing in on a $2 trillion market cap. Microsoft also around session highs. Both earnings calls underway. Gene Munser has been listening to the conference calls. He is managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management. Fast Money friend Jean, it's always great to have you with us. What has stood out so far from either call?

[H]

Melissa on the medical we saw the stock moving. It was up about nine and a half percent and then kind of moved up to 11% on two comments. The first was a comment from Zuckerberg to take super intelligence seriously. He talked about the impact of their machines, teaching their machines recently they're seeing that as a tangible impact of superintelligence. And he said the world is going to look very different in a few years. And the concept of superintelligence is something that's relatively new to people. Most of people have been focusing on general intelligence. So I think that the market is reacting basically in this visionary view. The second, and as evidence that investors really want the company, any company, to Invest more in AI is the stock also moved up higher on the CFO's comments that they're going to be accelerating expense growth in calendar 26. And so I mean this is just a classic example. I'm having flashbacks to 1997 here. Classic example of investors just really rewarding. So that's been on at least the Meta call. And then as far as Microsoft's call, they've been highlighting their growth in cloud. The fact they've been gaining share, we've known that. But more specifically is that Quantum is going to play a bigger role. So that's what's come out of the.

[Guy Adami]

Call.

[Melissa Lee]

Jean, in terms of where the stocks are trading now given their runs into these quarters. Are these stocks rerating? I mean do either of these stocks deserve to be looked at through a different valuation prism?

[H]

That's the real, that's the takeaway tonight is this is a big moment in a. I think we're going to look back to this earnings report from these two companies as a sign that we really didn't comprehend how early we are. Hard to really for me to wrap my head around that but just to put that into perspective is that what we saw was first of all two companies accelerating their growth based on AI and a three standard deviation move relative to what they have accelerated their growth over in the past few quarters. So we're seeing an increased impact here. And then second is on this capex Meta guided their capex we haven't gotten Microsoft's yet but they guided it to 48% growth next year the street was at 11% and so I think this is essentially what the message that Microsoft and Meta are sending to every company is there is gold in those hills that you can invest in AI and increase your earnings and I think that that is going to speak volume to get other companies to continue to start to move towards this. And so this is a big moment based on these two companies reports and I think to answer your question is I do think we're going to see a rerating. I think we are still in the early innings of what's going to be a crazy bull market. It's going to end in a bubble burst but I think the next few years are going to be great.

[Melissa Lee]

Gene, thanks. Gene Munster of Deepwater extraordinary move in Metta Consulting at 12% higher on a $2 trillion stock. Are you thinking about.

[Michael Kintopoulos]

Well I'm thinking about what he said about the Capex thing which that growth is huge but the what's happening with companies that expense very quickly which we're now going to be able to do is your free cash flow because it's not, it's a non cash charge that's going to look a lot better. I am surprised though at how big that other leg up is.

[Dan Nathan]

Yeah, no it's just quickly. I mean the margin expansion is, it's everything here.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah.

[Dan Nathan]

Tomorrow you'll hear people I believe misuse the term law of large numbers. It doesn't apply here. I mean that's talking about over the course of a couple coin flips you can get heads five times in a row but over the course of time it all reverts to the mean. This is something entirely different. These are large numbers are actually growing at a pace that for Facebook, at least that you can rationalize the valuation.

[Melissa Lee]

Coming up, Adidas getting kicked as a sportswear giant adds to the growing list of companies ringing the alarm on tariffs, just how big a hit they are taking and how it'll impact the cost of your next pair of sneakers. More fast Money into. Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of Adidas getting tripped up after the sportswear giant flagged a more than 230 million dollar hit from tariffs in the second half. It also warned that it would raise prices, specifically in the U.S. 11% drop. Karen, you flagged this.

[Michael Kintopoulos]

Yeah, so I mean they've really had a nice run. So the stock was a bit expensive. I actually think this was overdone. I think they probably gave themselves a big cushion. We don't know how exactly it's going to work out. So I don't know where the tariffs come. I mean let's say they import from, they import a lot from Indonesia, China. If that goes to Europe and then comes here, is that a different. Are we actually circumventing some of that tariff?

[Melissa Lee]

Oh, transgender.

[Michael Kintopoulos]

I don't know. I don't know. It's unclear where. Who eats the, you know, does the consumer eat the cost? Does Adidas, does they. Whoever shipped it sent it to them. But I think they probably put a number on it that they felt comfortable with. So I think it was overdone.

[Melissa Lee]

Up next, final trades news alert on software company Figma pricing its IPO at 33 bucks. That is above the expected range. Time for the final trades.

[Julia Borson]

Michael Kantopoulos People, forget about the compounding of dividends.

[Guy Adami]

Boring.

[Julia Borson]

But I liked high quality dividend payers.

[Guy Adami]

Dan yeah, I think Figma will be a good sentiment indicator. See how much it pops.

[Michael Kintopoulos]

Karen yes, the big tech doing well like Amazon, IBM sister get you done.

[Melissa Lee]

Thanks for watching. Fast Mad Money starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer A key July.

[Guy Adami]

Jobs report is trade uncertainty impacting the economy and the labor market? What the data could mean for future rate cuts. Employment numbers and analysis squawk box Friday.

[Karen Feiderman]

8:30 Eastern and streaming on CNBC Plus.