← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
Micron and Memory Vs. Everyone Else… And What’s Sparking a Bitcoin Sell-off? 6/25/26
00:43:32
Micron surging on the back of its earnings report but leaving hardware stocks worse for wear. The impact on device makers like Apple, Microsoft, and Dell, and if the memory surge is crowding out the rest of tech. Plus, where is AI heading after a rough week for tech? One Point BFG Wealth Partners CIO Peter Boockvar warns investors of a faltering AI trade but also lays out where he sees an important buying opportunity. Then, massive bitcoin outflows hit the crypto market, SpaceX prepares for landing near its IPO price, and airline stocks gaining altitude. Fast Money Disclaimer
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- [00:00]
Edward Jones Financial Advisor
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- [00:34]
Bank of America Representative
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- [01:02]
Mike Santoli
Live from the NASDAQ marketsite in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast money. And here's what's on tap tonight. Memory, pain and gain. Storage stocks like Micron, Seagate and Western Digital all continuing to climb. But is the strong memory run crowding out? Device makers like Apple and Microsoft will debate tech ripple effects and the latest hit to bitcoin. The record ETF outflows this month and how the crypto crush is hitting proxies like Strategy Coinbase and Robinhood. Plus, the traders bite into McDonald's rough year. The technical take on Amazon and some unloved Mag 7 stocks. And space X falls out of orbit. What the stock's return trip down to earth means for anthropic and open air ahead of their potential IPOs. Mike Santoli in for Melissa Lee coming to you live from Studio B at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami and Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies. Tim Seymour will join us in a moment. Good to see you all.
- [01:58]
Dan Nathan
It's an honor, honor to have you doing the double Melissa. You're the hardest working person at cnbc.
- [02:04]
Mike Santoli
Well, it's no, I call it the full Melissa because she does a double every day for the most. So thank you very much. We are going to start with the latest signs of memories gains creating hardware pain. Micron soaring 16% after last night's earnings where the company more than quadrupled its current quarter sales guidance and said tight memory market conditions could last beyond 2027. Those headlines boosting SanDisk another 20% with other storage stocks, Seagate, Western Digital also firmly higher. But those moves coming at a steep price for the consumer. Device makers reliant on memory chips Today, Apple announcing price hikes between 1 and $300 on MacBooks and iPads. Fears now the iPhone is potentially next. The stock falling over 6% on the day. Microsoft also coming out with Xbox. Price increases between 120 at $150. Tied to the memory crunch, that stock closing down another 3 1/2 percent. Dell and HP also getting hit today. So while Tim Cook calls, the price increase is unavoidable, will investors start to avoid anything relying on memory? So, guy, talk about sticker shock on, you know, earlier today, clearly it's all about who's imposing a tax and who's paying it.
- [03:18]
Dan Nathan
Historically, you know this again, it is great to have you, Michael. Historically, Apple's been able to squeeze there, if you think about it, the people they get stuff from, right? And now that seemingly the pendulum is swung where now they're getting squeezed and it's going to manifest probably in the margins. Now you could say that, you know, whether it's elastic inelastic in terms of their devices and their products remains to be seen and maybe they'll make up for it in terms of revenue. But there's no denying it's probably going to hurt margins. And we're seeing it now. What's amazing to me is if you had told me Apple would be down along with some of these other Mag 7 names, to the extent that it's down today and the S&P 500 closed unchanged, I think that's remarkable given the run that we've had over the last few weeks.
- [04:00]
Mike Santoli
Well, it is. I mean, Dan, you know, we can look at this type of action and say it's this benign rotation. The market is sidestepping some of the danger from the clients, you know, in videos down along with the rest of them today. And the fact that all the conviction is in this narrow channel directed toward memory and everything else is, is starving, that's a problem.
- [04:22]
Guy Adami
I mean, I used to read your column back in Barron's and you were writing. Yeah, you did. And you're often hitting on of this stuff, especially as in the aftermath, I would say, of the dot com. And there's a lot of lessons, I think to be learned. And you know, we saw back then that, yeah, there was a lot of enthusiasm about the underlying technology and everybody in the supply chain, the like. But then it spread out, right to the industries that were either going to be disrupted or the ones who were going to benefit. And you know what? When the bubble burst, it didn't matter. The correlations went to one. I Mean, everything went down, right? So when I look at some of these industrials like a Caterpillar or something like that, I say to myself, that's great. It's great story right now. The earnings growth is great. We haven't seen this sort of growth in a very long time, but it's going to be a bit ephemeral and the other side of it is not going to be particularly great. And we just know that from history and it won't be different this time. You know, one thing that really stuck out to me about the move in memory is okay, well Hewlett, Dell, they all just reported that huge gaps, maybe they can pull those charts up. They didn't guide down for margins. Okay, that's coming to a theater near you. And this was like a few weeks ago, you know, so if Apple is coming out, this is a company that reported three months ago and they are already raising prices because they need to defend those margins, right? And you think about where their margin comes from. They, the mix shift for them is great. It's services, right? If their hardware margins come under pressure, then they got a problem. And if this kind of, you know, dollar cost or this dollar price that they're raising right now pushes out demand, well then that kind of messes everything up. It messes up services, it messes up the potential for uptake with Apple intelligence. So I think there's a lot weighing on Apple and getting this right over the next few months and it's not going to be easy because what, what the stocks are telling you in the memory and the storage space is like, it's not abating. I just was really surprised today that Micron was able to hold those gains. You know, The SMH gapped up 5% within an hour, is down in the day. And I just thought that was something that was going to kind of continue. But it might be, you know, one step forward, two steps back for the here on out.
- [06:12]
Mike Santoli
Yeah, I was pointing out Micron traded $100 billion in its own stock today. So basically it's a frenzy and it did close basically slightly above Monday's closing high. Katie, you know, I guess on one level you say had this two day shakeout and that seemed to be enough on the short term. But for semis in general, has there been any kind of reset that they still look like they need to have some payback?
- [06:33]
Katie Stockton
There is so much pressure on them to perform here, isn't there? I feel like every day becomes greater, especially today. But what we've been seeing more recently is that the 20 day moving averages which we're tracking as our primary short term trend following input, they're still pointing higher for most semiconductor stocks including Micron. And with that in mind we generally want to see stay with what's working in the marketplace right now. That could change abruptly. But the 20 day moving averages are a great way to eliminate some of the noise and so far it's been treating what we've seen in semis at least noise. However, The S&P 500 has not been immune to one of these downturns. So the rotation that we've seen is definitely significant.
- [07:14]
Mike Santoli
It's significant, it's definitely happening in this churn period for the overall index. And you know, I wonder the, the price reaction in Apple, it comes in the context of new pressure on MAG7 in general or just this sense out there that that mega cap move is kind of yesterday's trend. And I know there's been some breakdowns in that area. So how does that.
- [07:38]
Katie Stockton
Without question, the relative performance of the Mags etf which has all seven of them has been deteriorating for a long time now, months even and the ratio went to a new 52 week low. So that's a breakdown in the ratio that reflects underperformance. It also supports greater underperformance. So it is pretty meaningful. Today it was acute the declines in the mega caps relative to the rest of the market and I think Apple below its 50 day moving average probably has more downside. It shows a loss of momentum that is of course significant. It was a gap that tends to see downside follow through as well there. It's not without support. There is definitely strong support not far below for Apple but we've seen enough action in the mega caps that tells us that sentiment has certainly shifted there. Microsoft another example, testing support.
- [08:27]
Mike Santoli
Yeah, I mean I was trying to kind of read into it what the message of the market is here guy. And it seems to be, I mean obviously it's rolled from Microsoft supply and open AI there they've got this lead in chatbots going back three years and then it rolled into Oracle is going to be building the guts of it.
- [08:45]
Kate Rooney
Right.
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Mike Santoli
So you keep going to where it seems like the dollars are sweeping through and now we're really out on this limb. 100% of memory. And it seems like the concern overlaying a lot of this is, you know, the hyperscalers are taking their free cash flow, they're handing it to memory makers and other hardware makers and maybe what they're building is something that's going to be commoditized in a few years and
- [09:11]
Dan Nathan
right now the market is. Well until the last couple of days the market has been saying maybe not so much now when you look at it you're saying wait a second, maybe there's some things to be concerned at. And you know Katie mentioned the technicals. I'll say for Apple close below the prior high we had in December which I think was sort of 284 or so did it on two times normal volume, a little bit more than that and now we're below some moving averages so there's reason for concern and you know you're going out on a limb that continues to get more and more narrow. Yeah, I think that's concerning but against the backdrop of an S and P that hangs in there like a champ. So you know we'll see what, what sort of transpires.
- [09:48]
Mike Santoli
And Tim, I think, I think you're with us here. You know we being too alarmist here because you know we do have the banks up 1% today. Airlines were ripping. It felt like some of the stuff exposed to the real economy was doing fine or at least playing some, some catch up. So what's your read on all that?
- [10:06]
Tim Seymour
I think that's the same market we've had. Katie pointed out the technicals. I make an argument that Mag 7 peaked last, last July that the breakout of the, of the NASDAQ 100 against the S and P that we finally got was driven more by that rotation within the semiconductor world and therefore you can make an argument that the rest of the market. I mean look industrials have been on fire all year. I mean you know Rails Airlines have just caught up but, but there's been different parts of the industrials trade. Nice to see health care. It's the age old question what can we get from a market when we don't have the biggest market caps in the world participating. And I think today is a disappointing number for a lot of reasons around Apple. But I think the market has moved on and the question really is when semis as a group stop outperforming can the rest of those names hold up? But I this isn't new and I guess I just feel that the trade in transports, industrials, energy we talk about some parts though of obviously the financials as well. I mean this is a, an encouraging sign for people that see market broadening.
- [11:15]
Mike Santoli
That's fair. Although I would say industrials it's really been a levered industrials that have carried a lot of the weight and I mean, it's just fun. Today that Caterpillar was up the equivalent of 400 Dow points within the Dow and the Dow itself was up 74. Right. So it just shows you, I mean, obviously it's a lumpy, you know, benchmark, but it's fascinating how you're still kind of coming out in the same place which is, you know, who's got a share of, of the AI gravy train.
- [11:45]
Guy Adami
Yeah, listen, we've seen this before, right? So two years ago, three years ago, you just mentioned Microsoft, Caprot Seed, OpenAI that, you know, now they own 27% of this thing. Maybe it's valued at 850 billion or something like that and no one cares. I mean like the stock's down 35%, you know, from its all time highs last year. Never confirmed what one new high in the nasdaq, you know, going back, you know, a year obviously or something like that. And if you look at all those names, that was the leadership, they are the ones moving around, what is it, $20 trillion in market cap or something like that. And so, you know, I just don't buy it that you have this pocket that is clearly in a bubble. You know, you keep hearing about these long term contracts that, you know, they have signed and it's taken to the bank, but the market is willing to reward that right now. And that's not really how it works. It's meant to discount that sort of stuff. So it tells you that we're a little offsides on this last kind of bastion into, you know, this trade. I mean, at some point, if the hyperscalers can't stabilize and they can't rally back and the news keeps getting worse. Google's a great example. Great, great story, right? The vertical, everything this, that TPU is this one. And all of a sudden they got four researchers leaked in the last few days and the stock drops 5%. You know, so people are looking for excuses to sell and I think that's
- [12:53]
Mike Santoli
a big part of who knows, maybe we have to have a little bit of a risk off moment and everyone says, oh look, they're definitely expensive. Microsoft said 18 times earnings and nobody likes it and Met is at 16 times and there's these massive discounts and they still have pretty decent underlying growth. So who knows, we'll have to see because we, as we've been talking about, the story changes without notice sometimes. Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee talking about whether inflation relief is ahead. He joined Power Lunch earlier today during their special live show from the cbo, let's hear what he had to say.
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Austan Goolsbee
We've had periods where we were making progress, then we kind of stalled out on the progress. Lately it's been going the wrong way. But some of that going the wrong way is driven by what we hope to be temporary events, wars, tariffs. These are things that are supposed to be won and done. And then you would see the inflation going away.
- [13:50]
Mike Santoli
Let's bring in CNBC contributor Peter Bookbar, Chief Investment officer at one point, BFG Wealth Partners. Peter, good to see you.
- [13:57]
Peter Boockvar
Thanks Mike.
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Emily Wilkins
Hi.
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Mike Santoli
So Goolsbee, I mean a lot of this has been pretty consistent in terms of Fed folks saying, you know, not mission accomplished on inflation. Maybe that just means a wait and see. And then we had the PC numbers today which were hot but no hotter than expected. So how do you, how do you view all that?
- [14:15]
Peter Boockvar
Well, I found it interesting is, you know, Kevin Warsh's message was I'm not going to lean in any direction. Goolsbee seemed to have followed that. I'm not leaning in any direction.
- [14:24]
Mike Santoli
Yeah.
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Peter Boockvar
Then John Williams spoke and right down the middle. And I think that's their message because every meeting is a new piece of information for them. So yeah, I think it's official forward guidance we know is done with inflation. It was somewhat old news today because of the subsequent drop in energy prices and that'll flow through over the next couple of months. But I still think the Fed is dealing with a situation where we're going to ping pong still between this 3 and 4% inflation range. So where should the Fed funds rate be? Well, at an effective rate, about 3.6%. Well, when you get to 4, you're easy and when you're at 3, you're still below their long term 1% real rate. So the Fed should just sit there and do nothing for a while. And also with energy, okay, we saw the spike, we've, we've seen the pullback. But does oil just stop here at 70 or does it settle out at maybe 80? Where does it go back to 65? I think it settles out in the 80s which will think will further complicate the inflation story and keep the Fed from doing nothing. And I actually think trying to predict what the Fed is going to do by year end is even more difficult because they're not telling you anything.
- [15:36]
Austan Goolsbee
Right.
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Mike Santoli
And the market will try, but it's not going to get a lot of clues. Presumably you mentioned the sort of standard Fed funds real rate buffer that they want over inflation, you know, longer term, real Rates have been going up. Right. So I mean, I know it's kind of slippery how you measure these things, but that should be some kind of a restraint. The dollar has been rallying heavily. What is all of that kind of netting out to in terms of what it means for, for the rest of the market?
- [16:04]
Peter Boockvar
Yeah, that's it's an interesting question to try to figure out because originally when the war began, the dollar rallied because people were selling the currencies of countries that were importing a lot of their energy. Well now, well is back to 70 and the dollar is still going. I think the dollar is just on a momentum thing to the point where we're now we're very overbought. And to try to get further dollar strength from here I think is going to be really difficult.
- [16:28]
Dan Nathan
Peter, I'm with you on that. The Fed should probably do nothing to the extent that they can. But you know, Jim Chano sent a chart out today talking about junk bond spreads widening out against a backdrop of the S and P going higher when that divergence typically doesn't end well. So they can do nothing for a while. But if credit spreads start to move in a way that's, you know, not natural and deleterious, they're going to be forced to do something. Sort of thoughts on that.
- [16:53]
Peter Boockvar
I agree. And not only those spreads, but seemingly every single day there's another private credit fund saying we had more than 5% redemptions and we had to gate again. You know, when you look at the BizD ETF, the BDC ETF that really has not rallied. You look at the LSTA Leveraged Loan Index, it's bounced a bit because rates have gone up and it benefits from that. But I do think that they're going to get into that situation where inflation still high, but the economy softening and what do I do? And what happens if the AI trade or the stock market gets weak knees and that has an impact on the economy and the stock market, how do they respond to that? So Kevin, I'm glad he's there, but that doesn't mean his job is easy.
- [17:38]
Guy Adami
Peter, back to the stock market. Michael just mentioned maybe there's a chance that hyperscalers end up being really cheap and discounting a lot and maybe they become discovered defensive. If we do have a market that gets a little bit nicer over the course of the summer, where else would you be? Where else do you think is defensive right now? I know you're going to say gold, but where else do you want to be in the Stock market.
- [17:56]
Peter Boockvar
So my favorite area of defense right now, and we're long a bunch of these stocks are the hated consumer staple stocks specifically and food and like products like a Kimberly Clark, like you take Kraft HEINZ for example, 7% dividend yield, 65 percentage payout ratio, which is rather reasonable. New CEO that's going to invest in the business for the first time in 10 years and there are 22 analysts that follow it and one has it as a buy. So to me that's a nice defensive spot. And then you have like McCormick which reported a decent number. The stock rallied. Hormel had won a few weeks ago. The stock rallied. I think it's a very interesting group that is defensive from a dividend perspective, a valuation perspective and certainly from a business perspective.
- [18:42]
Mike Santoli
Katie, I'm guessing the charts aren't giving you a green light on those.
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Katie Stockton
Well, you know they have improved without question. We actually featured a chart of Maple bear. So that was sort of our version of a consumer staples idea. So improved relative performance, improved momentum. They're obviously not established long term uptrends at this point, but I do think there's opportunity there for these counter trend moves to unfold. So not in disagreement.
- [19:06]
Mike Santoli
All right, good to hear Peter. Thank you very much, Tim.
- [19:12]
Tim Seymour
Well, it's, Peter's view on the dollar is interesting. What's, what's fascinating to me about the dollar is right is this does less Fed communication, as Peter said, almost the kind of the neutered voices of the Fed these days. Does that though mean the market wants to interpret hawkishness? And I think the dollar is the most interesting dynamic for the market because I think if the dollar was weaker here, I think there'd be a lot less pressure on certain sectors. And I think, you know, it doesn't take away the angst around the hyperscalers trade. But I think the dollar's direction is very important for the next move in the market. I think the move in copper and some of the materials that are not gold, we know the move that gold has inversely to the dollar. But copper should not necessarily be behaving the same way. So I think the weakness you've gotten in trades like Freeport, some of the copper miners, but also the Rio Tintos, the bhp, that to me is still again picks and shovels, but also companies that have never been run better and have high free cash flow yields.
- [20:06]
Mike Santoli
Yeah, rocks and sticks even. So we got it. Thanks Tim. We got a news alert here on Open Air. Kate Rooney has the details. Okay.
- [20:15]
Emily Wilkins
Hey Mike. So OpenAI from what we're hearing plans to do a limited release of its newest AI model. This is Chad CBT 5.6. It hasn't been released yet, but the government, from what we're hearing, has asked the company to do a staggered rollout. This would be similar to what Anthropic, its rival, had done with its own recent model, Mythos. This is according to a source familiar with these plans. CEO Sam Altman did tell staff about this and rival Anthropic really did the same thing in April with its limited rollout of that cyber model, Mythos. It had a select group of partners over cybersecurity concerns rather than a wider release to the public. The information was first to report this, but it does come a couple of weeks after the administration forced Anthropic to pull its most advanced model off the market, using export controls as part of that. That is still not resolved from what we're hearing. And then at the meantime, in the meantime, New York Times now reporting OpenAI is leaning towards holding its IPO until early next year. Sam Altman is also reportedly pushing advisors to find a way to get OpenAI's valuation in this listing above $1 trillion. And some details here in this reporting that space X is listing is weighing on this process and this decision with shares below the listing price. OpenAI advisors reportedly have been cautioning the company about some of the enthusiasm they're seeing from retail investors. So that seems to be weighing on this decision. No comment though from Open Air on that one, guys.
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Mike Santoli
All right, Kate, thank you. Yeah, it's, it's pretty delicate, obviously. And you know, if nothing is getting done right now in terms of a filing, it's not happening this summer. You're talking about the fall probably. And if next year maybe isn't that big a leap. But what do you think the calculus is?
- [21:47]
Guy Adami
Yeah, I mean, listen, what we've seen in the IPO market, we obviously had the huge one and it's not trading particularly well. But one week does not make, you know, a trend by any means. And then when you think about Cerebrus is another one. It's broken its, you know, IPO price. And I never thought the open air or probably Anthropic is going to come this year. I just don't see an appetite for them. When you see the Magic seven acting the way they are and, you know, a lot of the conversation has turned into price compression. Now we have the whole idea that we're going to see export controls on our best models. Right. And at a time Where Microsoft is considering putting deep sea from China. There are four model in Copilot because OpenAI and Anthropic they're not working well. They're not seeing the uptake on that. So I just think that it's about as clear as mud right now about how these models and how these companies are going to come to market and how they're going to be perceived and I just can't imagine right now is the time to do it.
- [22:36]
Mike Santoli
It's pretty unusual though guy to see a private company with revenue ramping the way theirs are at to like $50 billion annual run rate and be like now we don't know the price public markets not ready for us.
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Dan Nathan
Well a lot of unusual things have happened over the last couple of years so yes and you're right about that and you wonder you know they sitting back and watching this the way space understanding it's a week and week and a half into this thing but you know what impact does it have potentially and you're probably as well equipped to answer this as anybody on the consumer, on the, you know, the retail trader psyche. The fact that you know this is now challenging the level that it came out on in a very short period of time time to me that's something you watch for the broader market I think.
- [23:18]
Mike Santoli
Oh yeah, the average trader bought space X is underwater without a doubt in terms of the average price it's traded at. So not necessarily positive reinforcement there. Coming up, airlines take off while industrials like Cat and Deere continue to run higher. Next move in those names ahead. Plus a potential senior surge for obesity drug makers. How Medicare GOP 1 coverage could boost pharma. Names like Lilly and Novo don't go anywhere. Fast money is back in tune.
- [23:49]
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- [24:45]
Venture Global Representative
At Venture Global we think about what can be done not what's usually done through innovation. Venture Global is not only building some of the largest energy facilities in the world right here in the United States, but delivering American energy at a fraction of the cost in a fraction of the time. So while others are busy talking, we're busy building. That's Venture Global. That's unstoppable energy.
- [25:16]
Mike Santoli
Welcome back to Fast Money. Airlines flying high today. United and Delta soaring to new all time highs as crude prices tumble lower. Industrials the top performing sector today led by Caterpillar and United Rentals of course airlines also in industrials. You are I at a record high today too Tim. You've been, you've been focused here. So is this more than just you know the reverse of the, the oil move and what's going on in tech?
- [25:42]
Tim Seymour
Well I would argue that the airlines didn't really get the move that the broader industrials and I'm going to argue industrials have been rallying outside of data center but we'll save that for, for another day. I just think airlines have mostly traded on the dynamics around the things that are short term dynamics. The reason Delta is moving higher is the market is now able to focus on a very durable model and margins that I think people are going to start to look at mid teens. This is unheard of. They were kind of 10 plus percent in 25, they're a little south of 10 in 26. But, but like financials which are rerating, airlines are rerating at least the best of breed are. That's the story with Delta and that's the story that I think still has some more room to run that's not in the valuation and right now Delta's cheap. They're getting demand across all the different demos, both premium but also main cabin is starting to follow through. I think this is a story you stay with but I like industrials too.
- [26:38]
Mike Santoli
They have pricing power, some level guy. I don't know what that says broadly about the consumer. Maybe it's just priority shifting away from buying stuff but I think at a
- [26:49]
Dan Nathan
certain level it speaks to again the high end consumer and Delta wins to that. Tim has said over and over again and they report I think on July 10th you got to stay with Delta, you got to stay within the earnings and probably out of earnings as well. I mean that is best in breed in terms of what's going on in the space. So valuations, listen you know this game airline valuations don't necessarily matter, but the way they're operating suggests the stock can go higher.
- [27:12]
Mike Santoli
Yeah, I mean the story for so long with Delta was don't worry, it's really a credit card rewards company and they have the oil refiner, but now it's the actual corporate core business. People like Katie, how do they look to you?
- [27:21]
Katie Stockton
I mean they look a bit overextended short term as you'd imagine. So I don't think you need to buy these stocks into strength as crude oil prices come off as dramatically as they have done. I would wait, I would just wait for them to come in a bit. But United does look like it has a real breakout. So if it does consolidate a bit, that would be a bullish development and
- [27:41]
Mike Santoli
does we'll get, maybe we'll get to it elsewhere. But I mean in terms of oil itself because that would be the, you know, basically a trigger perhaps for a pullback if it bounced.
- [27:49]
Katie Stockton
So there is an oversold reading. As you can imagine, we don't have any buy signals yet. So no counter trend indications from our demark indicators. Support is around $68 per barrel on our cloud model which tends to hold a lot of relevance for crude oil prices. So we suspect that we're pretty close to support discovery and expecting a higher low just based on the shift that we've seen.
- [28:12]
Mike Santoli
All right, coming up, the major opportunity for pharma stocks like Lilly and Novo as millions of seniors get ready for GLP1 coverage under Medicare. What it could mean for those stocks next. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ markets at Times Square back right after this.
- [28:34]
Venture Global Representative
At Venture Global we think about what can be done, not what's usually done through innovation. We Venture Global is not only building some of the largest energy facilities in the world right here in the United States, but delivering American energy at a fraction of the cost in a fraction of the time. So while others are busy talking, we're busy building. That's Venture Global. That's unstoppable energy.
- [29:04]
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- [29:29]
Monday.com Representative
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- [30:00]
Mike Santoli
got some breaking news on the housing bill. Emily Wilkins has the details. Hi Emily.
- [30:05]
Emily Wilkins
Hey, Mike.
- [30:05]
Kate Rooney
Well, Speaker Mike Johnson just got back from his meeting at the White House with President Donald Trump. Johnson did tell reporters that he has transmitted the housing bill to the White House. That's going to start that 10 day clock for Trump to either sign the bill into law, veto the bill, or if he does nothing, the bill will still become law if he vetoes it. I did have a few lawmakers today tell me that they do have some confidence that Congress could potentially override those vetoes. Remember, this bill passed with very strong support, bipartisan support are just earlier this week. So it does seem like there's likely to be some movement on that. Johnson also said that he spoke with Trump about some obstructions that are going on in the House with a group of lawmakers. And of course, President Trump just posting on Truth Social only a few minutes ago, calling on those lawmakers to stand down and to continue to get his agenda done. Mike.
- [30:56]
Mike Santoli
Got it. Okay, so maybe it's a half step closer to becoming law. One of three ways. Emily, thank you very much. Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk both finishing out the day in the green as they prepare for millions of seniors to become eligible for obesity drugs on July 1st. Seniors will be able to access these drugs for $50 a month through their Medicare coverage. Here with more is Angelica Peoples. Angelica.
- [31:20]
Angelica Peoples
Hey, Mike. Well, that's right, Wednesday is the day that some 20 million seniors can access GLP1s for $50 a month. Now, Medicare beneficiaries that meet certain weight and health criteria will be eligible for this Medicare bridge program. And this is the first time that Medicare will be able to cover weight loss drugs. They currently cover GLP1s for diabetes, but otherwise seniors are paying cash if they want these drugs. So Lillian novo estimate that 20 million people will be covered under this program and neither of them expects to see all of those 20 million people rush in at once. HHS number two official Chris Klomp this week said that it'll probably start in the single digit millions. And executives from Lilianovo say that it'll take time to make seniors and doctors aware of this program. But they are both incredibly focused on this everyone wants to make it work. And Novo thinks that the health benefits in the WeGovy label will win win over seniors. And the company's market research suggests that they think that seniors will prefer pills by a 2 to 1 margin and Lilly thinks that the convenience of their pill Foundeo will give them an edge and no matter who wins, guys, Lillian novo think that the bigger opportunity here is using this program to prove that covering GLP1s is cost effective. They think that if they can do that here, they can take that to employers and commercial insurers to increase the access and make the case that more people should cover these drugs.
- [32:39]
Mike Santoli
Mike yeah, that obviously a huge part of the selling proposition there. We'll see how it goes. Angelica thank you very much, Tim. I mean a big swing factor factor for these, these stocks or no, I
- [32:51]
Tim Seymour
think the market kind of expected this. I think the market actually believes that there's still a bit of a pricing headwind across not only what Medicare is going to be paying, but obviously even the entire portfolio. In fact, you can make an argument that there's been 10 to 15% pricing headwinds across Lilly's entire drug portfolio. Announcements like this are part of addressable market rally of a year and a half ago. To me, I do think it ultimately does lead to much broader insurance coverage. But that to me ultimately leads to, I think, more commoditization and probably less pricing power. That's just my view.
- [33:29]
Mike Santoli
Yeah. I mean that's usually the direction these things go. We'll see how it plays. Tim, thanks. Coming up, the massive outflows from Bitcoin ETFs over the past month and the proxies getting hit in the crypto. Joe crash details the Fast Money return. Missed a moment of fast Catch us
- [33:50]
Austan Goolsbee
anytime on the go Follow the Fast Money podcast.
- [33:54]
Mike Santoli
We're back right after this. Welcome back to Fast Money. The major indices closing mixed as the tech trade continued to fall. The Dow with a small gain and touching a fresh record high in today's session. The S and P ending the day virtually unchanged. The NASDAQ erasing early gains falling about half a percent. The S and P and the NASDAQ now down four days in a row. Shares of Apple falling more than 6% today. It's the worst day in over a year. And leading the MAG7 lower stock now down nearly 12% just in June so far. And on semi announcing a deal to acquire semi company Snapdex in a roughly $7 billion all stock deal. Shares of on semi falling after hours on this News Synaptics up almost 11%. And don't miss an exclusive interview with the CEO of On Semi. That's tomorrow at 9am Eastern on Squawk on the street. And FedEx Freight releasing its first earnings report after spinning off into a public company earlier this month. The shares just modestly lower after those reports. Now to bitcoin and the record rush to the exits by retail investors. US Bitcoin ETF seeing outflows of more than $6 billion in the last 30 days. The largest pullback on record this as bitcoin dipped to 58,000 earlier in the day. That's its lowest level since September of 2024. CNBC's Today Mikhail joins us now with more. I mean outflows sometimes follow weakness in price, sometimes they lead to more. How does it look?
- [35:24]
Mikhail
Yeah, Mike. So crypto stocks broadly getting dragged today by the broader sell off in tech. And take a look at strategy in particular a new 52 week low and extending a multi week sell off that's brought it down more than 45% in June alone. It's stretch preferred stock which the company and its fans are calling digital credit dropping to more than 25% below its $100 par level today. This of course happening as the bear market in bitcoin, the asset this whole business is built around continues to drag. We're in the eighth month of it now I think and there is a lot of attention and concern around strategy and its easy to point to this company when the bitcoin price breaks a key level like it did today and yesterday for the third time this year I believe. June, I know began with a bitcoin sell off that was triggered by strategy selling a small amount of bitcoin, although it was symbolically significant. The ETFs though I think are the thing to watch here regarding the bitcoin price. So the largest monthly withdrawal period since launch in 2024. I mean institutional investors have been reducing their risk exposure given higher rate concerns, broader market uncertainty. And Bitcoin ETFs have just kind of become one of the easiest ways to do that. And I mean I would also point out, guys, I think many people would disagree that this bear market is so different from bear markets we've seen in the past because the volatility is lower on the upside and the downside, which I think says a lot to the population popularity of Bitcoin ETFs in this new institutional investor base.
- [36:58]
Mike Santoli
Yeah, I mean I actually saw an analysis of the I bet you know the big Bitcoin ETF that basically in aggregate, if you look at when the flows came in way underwater by like 10 or $15 billion since inception. So I guess the question is, you know, we can talk about the macro influences, but it seems like there's always an excuse for why it's not performing. Oh, it's a risk asset, but look at how other risk assets are performing or rates are up or whatever it might be. It was supposed to be an all weather asset in some sense.
- [37:29]
Mikhail
Yeah. And I think that it's going to be really interesting to watch here to the end of the year. A lot of people are saying that if you are looking at the four year cycle, which if you measure in days from the peak to trough could take us to October or November and maybe down to even 40k. Maybe Katie has something to say about this a little bit later. But if you, if it follows the four year cycle, which it always has, it will be very interesting to watch what happens later this year. Because pre 2024, last bear market was 2022. ETFs came in 2024 and the investor base kind of changed then. And all of last year we saw all of these new equities come to market in crypto. So you know, there's so many different ways to trade in crypto and bitcoin. And it's not just every product on the market is a proxy for the price of bitcoin. There's just so many different ways to get exposure and play upside. Regardless of how you feel about Bitcoin as a long term asset.
- [38:29]
Mike Santoli
Yeah. So Katie, I mean, how does it appear?
- [38:31]
Katie Stockton
Yeah, you know, it's obviously a bear trend. Within that context we can see really strong relief rallies. And for me I feel like volatility is opportunity. We have seen about a 30% downdraft since Bitcoin reached its 200 day moving average not that long ago. And naturally that generates an oversold condition. We don't have any buy signals. Momentum is still obviously to the downside. There is some key support that we're watching and it's actually not 60,000. 60,000 is previous lows, but I would widen that out to about 58,000 because that is an, an important Fibonacci retracement level going back all the way to the 2022 low, connecting to the 2025 high. It's right around that 58,000 level. So we think that's the key level to watch because below that there is no real support nearby. So it's key that this Level holds on this retest.
- [39:24]
Dan Nathan
You know, we had anti Scaramucci on a week and a half or so ago and I asked him specifically about the market shooting against Strategies Holdings. Average price, I think it's 76,000, maybe a little bit lower. But he said, you know what, they were insulated from that and Anthony is probably right. But I still think the market is doing something here. And this feels different than the historical sort of moves lower in Bitcoin RSI is your PIN lower without question. You can work those off over time. This is a huge level to Katie's point.
- [39:52]
Mike Santoli
Yeah, I mean this is one of
- [39:54]
Guy Adami
the worst charts in the entire market. I mean you could tell me 58,000, you say whatever you want. This is like a head and shoulders within a head and should shoulders and you know, like, you know, people are having a hard time articulating why you own it. Other than some of the pillars that we heard about in 17, we heard about it again in 2020 and 2021 is not happening. And the other point I'll just make is in October this was basically a two and a half trillion dollar market cap. This is Bitcoin.
- [40:16]
Mike Santoli
Yeah.
- [40:16]
Guy Adami
Now it's cut in half. I mean if you were to kind of put this in the mag 7 or whatever you'd say I don't want any part of this.
- [40:22]
Mike Santoli
Yeah, it's, it's as an asset class, it's becoming easier, I think, for instance institutions to ignore and not bother with.
- [40:28]
Tim Seymour
We'll see.
- [40:29]
Mike Santoli
Tennant, thanks so much. Good to see you. Coming up, a cruel summer so far for the Magic 7 trade. But could the group be ready to bounce what Katie Stockton sees in store for Amazon and the other unloved tech giants, that's a fast money return. Welcome back to Fast Money. A difficult month for Amazon. The stock down 16% since its all time high in May. Amazon has underperformed the broader tech sector and the S and P since the beginning of the year. At the same time, a majority of the Magic 7 are down by double digits since the beginning of the month. Katie, so what are you seeing in Amazon's technicals at this point?
- [41:09]
Katie Stockton
Well, it hit my radar in part because it broke down 200 day moving average. It's an unconfirmed breakdown, but it is indeed a setback and it's something that we always watch for because it suggests that the longer term uptrend might be in jeopardy. The correction has certainly impacted our weekly gauges, our intermediate term indicators and believe it or not, even after this moon that we've seen in Amazon, it is not yet oversold on an intermediate term basis and that means that there could be more downside before we get an entry point. And ideally that happens above key support. When referencing our cloud model on the weekly chart again the support goes down to about 210. In between here and there there's a couple of levels. The gaps that we had earlier March to April could be relevant in the near term as well. But there are no signs of downside exhaustion yet to suggest that it's done going down. So we want to just put more weight of the evidence on our side when reconsidering not just Amazon but these other mega caps that have lost momentum.
- [42:10]
Mike Santoli
Yeah, I mean the last when Amazon cracked below its 200 day average in like February, I mean didn't stop.
- [42:16]
Katie Stockton
That was a setback. Yeah, another good example. But then it proceeded to gap out of a consolidation phase. So we'll be ready to work with whatever it's going to give us. But right now it does look like it has downside risk.
- [42:27]
Mike Santoli
Yeah. And Tim, what, what story are we going to knit back to the price action with Amazon?
- [42:34]
Tim Seymour
I think it's hyperscalers overall. I mean I do think that we've, you know, the US kind of reacceleration of growth has been nice over the last couple of quarters. Quarters. But the reality is this is a company that is dumping all free cash flow into one part of their business again. So you know it's interesting with the long term charts is that a lot of these companies, Microsoft and Tesla and other Macs like in particular like long term moving average. I mean you're talking about Microsoft that has made you no money since November of 21. Same with Tesla. You can pick spots along the way but I think the group is trading as a, you know, as a group that a lot of people have seen rotation out of. I think with Amazon it's clearly a case of, of that Capex just being too much to support the rest of the business.
- [43:25]
Mike Santoli
Yeah. And you just have to wonder if at some point the underperformance is going to lead the incentives to be, you know, let's moderate some of the spending if they feel they have the ability to do that. But no sign of that right now.
- [43:36]
Tim Seymour
Not yet.
- [43:37]
Mike Santoli
Tim, thanks. Coming up, more pain from McDonald's as shares of the fast food giant slump to near two year lows. But what's driving the weakness and what is it signaling about the consumer? Straight ahead, more fast. And. Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of McDonald's slumping to their lowest level since August of 2024. Fast food giant dropping another 3% today. McDonald's now down more than 13% this year. So Dan, you've been watching this name of late. It's not been a strong group, quick serve restaurants. But I wonder what else is going on.
- [44:14]
Guy Adami
You know it kind of feeds into that kind of K shape sort of situation. But it kind of makes you wonder right when you see you know, this sort of price point having such a difficult time. But I almost want to kind of suggest maybe what Peter was talking about earlier is some of these staples. It is a staple. You know it's getting a little overdone when you see a stock like this in a range like this go from a 52 week all time high to a 52 week low in two months. It maybe it's so bad it's good. I don't know Katie.
- [44:38]
Mike Santoli
I mean the market hasn't want, I'm sorry but market hasn't wanted defensive stuff. If this is defensive and beef prices are what they are. McDonald's has said we're going to be leading on value. So there's a pinch there.
- [44:49]
Dan Nathan
It should be defensive and it should be actually outperforming you would think. But Dan's point is a valid one. From an all time high to a 52 week low. Actually almost a 2 year low in a short period of time. It's somewhat unprecedented. That doesn't augur particularly well. Look, I think on valuation it's the most compelling case you can make for McDonald's in a long time. But maybe you have to wait till they report at the end of July.
- [45:09]
Mike Santoli
Yeah, I have an amateur trend line from five years. It looks like near right now.
- [45:14]
Katie Stockton
Well it's a secular uptrend still but there was a false breakout at the start of the year and a false breakout holds information when you don't see that follow through. And here we are with a short term breakdown. I'd at least wait to see if it crosses above its 50 day before adding.
- [45:28]
Tim Seymour
And Tim, I don't like restaurants. I don't really like a lot of the hospitality stuff here. I know oil prices are lower. This has been a difficult place to
- [45:38]
Guy Adami
play for a while.
- [45:39]
Tim Seymour
I think input costs are significant. Margins are under pressure. So I don't need. I love McDonald's. Was long for a long time. Don't own it here, don't need to.
- [45:49]
Mike Santoli
Yeah, you would think maybe oil gas prices coming down would give it a little bit of relief. Hasn't done it yet. Up next, we'll have final trades. It is time for final trades. Tim, get us started. Yeah Novo.
- [46:11]
Tim Seymour
That chart actually is interesting. It's not the news from today, but I would be a buyer of Novo on valuation as well.
- [46:17]
Mike Santoli
All right, little counter trend. Katie.
- [46:19]
Katie Stockton
I would take a look look at range resources or RRC oversold near con line support.
- [46:24]
Austan Goolsbee
Dan.
- [46:25]
Guy Adami
Yeah, excellent. Large integrated. Looks like they got a little overdone as the crude I'm expecting.
- [46:30]
Dan Nathan
We so love have did we love having Mike here just enough?
- [46:34]
Mike Santoli
No, you don't have to be.
- [46:35]
Guy Adami
I think he was going to give
- [46:36]
Austan Goolsbee
you the final trade right there.
- [46:38]
Mike Santoli
I can wrap.
- [46:39]
Dan Nathan
I mean we can wrap.
- [46:40]
Mike Santoli
Everybody knows how much so everybody. All right. Commodity based stuff.
- [46:45]
Edward Jones Financial Advisor
Except.
- [46:45]
Mike Santoli
Except for Tim going with Novo. Guys, thanks for having me. Appreciate it. Thanks for watching Fast Money Mad Money starts right now.
- [46:52]
R
All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer Feeling stuck with
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Guy Adami
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