← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
Monster Move In Metals… and Big Tech’s AI Trade gets tested 1/26/26
00:43:32
Gold and silver hit fresh records as the dollar slides, and investor Peter Boockvar sizes up the Fed meeting with a massive earnings week on deck — including whether Big Tech’s AI spending holds up. Plus: Nvidia takes a stake in CoreWeave, the latest on the travel trade after this weekend’s snowstorm, and a private-credit warning from BlackRock TCP Capital ripples through the space. Fast Money Disclaimer
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- [00:00]
A
What does it mean to live a rich life? It means brave first leaps, tearful goodbyes and everything in between. With over 100 years experience navigating the ups and downs of the market and of life, your Edward Jones financial advisor will be there to help you move ahead with confidence. Because with all you've done to find your rich, we'll do all we can to help you keep enjoying it. Edward Jones, Member, SIPC what do the steam engine, electricity and AI have in common? These technologies not only change how we work, they can transform entire economies. I'm Stephanie Wong, host of where the Internet Lives, a podcast from Google and Latitude Studios about the unseen world of data centers. Explore how data centers are unlocking growth in every sector of the economy. From agriculture to medicine to manufacturing, data centers are powering a new era of AI innovation. Listen to where the Internet lives wherever you get your podcasts. Live in the NASDAQ markets in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Shining bright gold and silver hitting new milestones. But the dollar's left in the dust. What the moves say about the state of the global markets right now and US Airports trying to get back on schedule after this weekend's storm, how airlines are handling the recovery and what the historic number of cancellations could mean for their bottom lines. Plus, Matt gets a big bullish call ahead of earning core weave shares. Jump on Nvidia's latest investment and sell the financials. What the chartmaster is seeing in the technicals that has him concerned. I'm Melissa Lee, come to you live from Studio B at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Feiderman, Carter Worth and Gaia Dami. We start off with more monster moves in the metals. Gold crossing above 50, $100 an ounce for the very first time, already up more than 15% this year. And not to be outdone, Silver surging nearly 14% today, bringing its gains for the year to more than 60% in less than a meanwhile, the dollar hitting four month lows against major currencies including the euro and British pound. The yen also spiking against the greenback amid growing speculation of intervention. Just how nervous should these moves make us? What is this telling us, guy?
- [02:17]
B
I think the weaker dollar is something we should absolutely focus on. And listen, Carter, if you remember last year was into the autumn. He said you're going to see a bounce in the dollar. And that happened. But the bounce was basically short lived. And I think this Reacceleration lower in the dollar is something that lease the S and P doesn't care about yet. Maybe people will say that a weaker dollar gives a tailwind to multinationals here I think there's a truth to that but at a certain point it becomes detrimental the broader market and it is a tailwind for the metals markets. But that's not the only reason gold and silver are going higher now. It feels as though you have in a day where silver comes off $8 and the way that silver stocks and some of the mining stocks and gold performed today leads me to believe we're pretty close to that. But by any means this move is not over at all Malms technically speaking.
- [03:02]
C
On which subject dollar silver. All of it.
- [03:04]
A
All of it.
- [03:04]
C
All of the above. Something to point out obviously silver is a small asset relative to gold. We know it's the speculative one, the one that overshoots and then crashes and so forth but this statistic is probably the most stunning of all and not because I'm saying it just because it is incredible. Today's total value traded of the SLV ETF was something in the order of 3738 billion. Do you know that's triple what Microsoft was? That's quadruple what you know Apple Nvidia was the next was meaning this little ETF the value traded of all the.
- [03:41]
D
Shares Sounds like crescendo time a little.
- [03:43]
C
Bit of that we gapped up closed poorly and so it's excessive in many ways and we have both on the monthly RSI price oscillator the same reading you had at the Hunt Brothers peak and the weekly is about as stretch as it's been in 20 years. Other people use Demarc a lot of indicators would suggest that this is full excessive and one should hedge for sure.
- [04:07]
D
Well on Friday I said I think it was time I think gold was going to struggle at the big number of 5,000. I said I was a short term seller of of GDX calls because I just think this has gotten out of control. I'm a huge gold bull I'm going to continue to be I think the ETF flows and we talk so much about the retail component of what markets gone into the strategic component obviously the industrial component but with silver it's never more real than the retail flow. Carter brings up the volume because silver is that much smaller than a gold market which is that much smaller than all of the other macro and equity markets that we talk about every day yet seems to get a lot of play so The ETF outflows in silver from the beginning of the year belie a very different story. Meanwhile, gold ETFs continue to go higher. I think the metal continues to go higher. But again I think what we've seen, we've had, dare I say the perfect storm was which we also had over the weekend in the northeast. But the dynamic of everything that we've had in terms of what's been going on with geopolitics seemed like it was peaking at Davos last week. But the reality is I actually think that the silver gold ratio which over the last call it 25 years has been somewhere around 60 to 70 to 1 since the gold standard at least ended. It's now around 45. And I think silver to gold is overdone. I think silver is overdone and I think you're going to see it chance to buy gold a bit cheaper. Even though there's nothing about the setup here with central bank buying. There's nothing about, you know, the San Andreas fault line of JGB yields which by the way that's. I want to footnote JP Morgan or someone who said that great line. It's not mine but it really does tell the story of also what went on over the weekend which took gold to where it is.
- [05:50]
A
Yeah. For many people who watch the show for a long time and I'm sure that's most people.
- [05:55]
D
Yes, that's everybody.
- [05:56]
A
They know that Karen Feiderman is not a gold investor.
- [05:58]
E
I am not a gold investor.
- [05:59]
A
At any point does this. Does this tempt you in terms of as a hedge to what is going on around the world?
- [06:05]
E
If it does, then you'll know that's the time it's peaked. I mean I actually wondered today, I mean was up closed $100 off of its high but you know where I would have an exposure to hedge against the same things as Bitcoin, which has really not worked in the last couple of months. It's down actually from remember I was rallying nicely off the clarid hope that declared legislation would happen and then it didn't and then Coinbase pulled out. I guess that wasn't the legislation they paid for so they wanted a different one. But anyway, since then it's down, you know, 87,000 after a difficult weekend. It hasn't done any of the things that you would think, you know, hedge for inflation, a hedge for a currency, a fiat currency crisis, any of that. So it's disappointing. But I'm not going to be a gold bug.
- [06:54]
A
Yeah. In terms of what's going on in Japan. Tim, can you overlay that on top of what's going on here in US markets when it comes to the trade that we're seeing in gold but also in Treasuries?
- [07:03]
D
Well, it's the, it's the fiscal fear argument on steroids because Japan, which also has controlled their bond market more than any other central bank and market, has controlled a bond market. And it's the second largest bond market in the world. You now have a Prime minister who is looking to be as fiscally irresponsible as the Japanese have ever been, on top of what was already a period where their currency was the ultimate funding currency in a carry trade. So I think that's the dynamic that had gold do what it did this morning. And I do think there is some fear that at some point they lose control. I do think there's also some sense that there's some line in which all the global central banks got together and said we can't let the yen go that much farther. And it felt like we might have had that point.
- [07:49]
A
So in terms of yen weakening and JGB yields spiking higher.
- [07:53]
D
Yes, and I do think that they're, they're the same, but they're also somewhat different because I do think the fiscal side of Japan right now, what's good for Japanese equities is not good for Japanese bonds.
- [08:02]
B
Real quick look at the dollar yen move though. I mean it's eerily reminiscent what we saw in the summer of 2024. Dollar yen traded to 161. It was a Thursday. A CPI number came out here, went from 161 to 157 in about a five minute span, which doesn't sound like a big deal. I will tell you it in currency world it is. And you just saw a very similar move. That's with now their bond market basically selling off in a meaningful way. Rates at all time highs. There's $5 trillion of Japanese capital that's invested elsewhere that might be repatriated. And if it does, it comes out of our bond market and potentially our equity market. And if this continues, that's what the real risk is in my opinion.
- [08:40]
A
Right, but I mean if everybody's going to coordinate, there's going to be intervention and that's going to save the day, Tim. Right, because it's always saved the day in the past.
- [08:48]
D
Look, I say sarcastically, markets always challenge those attempted moves at letting markets actually vacillate freely. And so, no, I mean, I think, I think they will push it around. I think we've been waiting for this for a long time and I'm not sure exactly what it is because I do think that there are a lot of people that will be there to take the other side of this trade at some point, but there's a lot locked in. It's also and I know we're going to talk about private credit and some other things. I mean there's just a lot of complacency and a lot of investments that have felt like something needed to give.
- [09:20]
A
All right, for more on the markets, let's bring in CNBC contributor Peter Book for our chief investment officer at one point, BFG Wealth Partners. Peter, great to have you with us. What does it look like? How bad is it in your view, if they quote unquote, lose control of where the yen is going and where JGB yields are going in terms of not just the carry trade but also as Guy had alluded to, the money that Japanese investors have invested directly in other assets around the world and that's a lot of it is U.S. treasuries.
- [09:48]
F
Well, it certainly matters from a flow perspective. I do think that a further rise in long term interest rates in Japan can be sort of a magnet and drag higher long term interest rates in Europe and the U.S. i know there's a lot of focus on Japan, but look at European bond yields. The ECB has cut the short rate by 200 basis points and German French yields are at multi year highs. So I do think that there is a global just as there was a global bond bull market. I do think that there's going to be a global pull upwards in yields if JG yields continue higher. I think one interesting thing also with Japan and the yen is the yen is one of the cheapest currencies in the world versus the US Dollar. But it can maintain, it can maintain that cheapness or maybe it reverses. I think an important other currency to keep our eye on here is the Chinese Yuan which is quietly at the highest level since May 2023 against the US dollar. Chinese yuan doesn't rally like that for no reason. It is a purposeful rise. And if the Chinese Yuan can rally, it can give room for the yen to rally and other Asian currencies to rally. Therefore, this dollar weakness, which I think is going to continue, could really broaden out amongst a variety of different currencies. And with so much foreign ownership of US assets, foreigners are going to have two choices. Am I going to hedge up my dollar holdings or am I going to start Selling my dollar holdings or at least buy less of them.
- [11:16]
B
Peter, you know, it's interesting. What point does dollar weak? It's historically a tailwind for US equities. I get it. At what point in your opinion is it become a headwind? And maybe not in the form of dollar yen because its own animal, but you know, dollar Euros at levels we haven't seen in a while, I think it's headed to 125. I don't know what I think I know what it means, but what do you think it means?
- [11:36]
F
Well, $$$ Aussie, the Singapore dollar closed today at a 12 year high against the US dollar. I know it's, I know we think okay, it's good for exporters, but the US imports about 40% or I should say 40% of US imports are intermediate term goods that find their way into finished products. So on one hand the final retail price could benefit from a weaker dollar, but almost half of your input costs are going to go higher. And also we're dealing with a consumer that's dealing with PTSD on inflation. We've thrown tariffs at them. If you start to get a further weakness in the dollar which negatively impacts their purchasing power, well that can then be a drag on consumer spending which we know is a huge chunk of the US economy.
- [12:24]
E
Hey Peter, it's Karen. Thanks for being on the flip side though to the weaker dollar for the US is obviously we've got a huge amount of debt and that's helpful. How do you think that plays into it at all?
- [12:35]
F
Well, foreigners still hold about 30% of the US treasury market. While that's down from 50% about 10 plus years ago, they still hold about 30%. If that continues to go down well then the US treasury is going to have to find other investors, whether it's US retail, US institutional stablecoins or whatever. So I do think that because of that very large ownership of U.S. bonds and stocks from foreigners, further weakness in the dollar could sort of disrupt those flows. And if we do get a joining of this industrial and precious metal bull market with oil because of a weaker dollar, well then that complicates the inflation story. It complicates the job of the Fed as well.
- [13:20]
D
Peter. Tim? Yeah, and foreigners who have been hedging a lot of this dollar exposure may decide not to do that. And you know, I think this favors international markets, but I've said that before. But how about the commodity space and the weaker dollar and the commodities that we're not thinking about? And we, we know we've been talking around here recently and I know you talk about this too, that the prices and energy equities forget valuation but how they've held in during a period with the prospect of supply is just a sign that the market is telling you something a weaker dollar tells you Commodities always go higher and could go a lot higher. And I'm not just talking about gold and copper, I'm talking about the entire commodity chain. But oil for sure, where I think it's underpriced.
- [13:59]
F
I agree. I think oil and we've seen this huge spike in natural gas. We'll see where prices settle out when this cold spell is over with. And I think it's going to eventually be joined by AG as well. There's no doubt that precious metals are very extended and need a timeout. Can say the same about copper as well. But I do think that it's a commodity bull market. I do think it's going to spread out. And to my point earlier, if this does happen, if oil instead of being at 60 is all of a sudden at 70 or 80 and natural gas prices remain above 5, it does become a very complicated story for the new Fed chair. And also in addition to JGB, yields help to lift long term interest rates.
- [14:42]
A
Peter, great to see you. Thank you.
- [14:44]
F
Thanks for having me.
- [14:45]
A
Peter Bocvar. Peter not only likes industrial metals and energy, also consumer staples which of course is they've been beaten down recently.
- [14:52]
B
Yeah, I'll go to energy. I mean I think he's right. He's been, you know, he talked about that at the end of last year. He's talking about it now. I know Tim has been talking about this energy works, I mean ExxonMobil reports I think on Friday as does Chevron, Schlumberger or SLB Corp and Halliburton continue to work. Valero and some of the other refiners, I mean the energy space to me I get it's 4% of the S and P. Understood. But I think this space can continue to go higher earlier this year.
- [15:16]
C
I mean in terms of a supercycle there's a lot of talk about it at the commodities we know that the CRB all commodity index has its peak associated with the Ukraine invasion. Right. That's when all of the precious metals, but industrial metals in particular, really oil 150 a barrel just to get back there we go another 20% from here. So one has to assume that these very cyclical the BHPs and the valets and the Riotensis which are just basing and bottom have plenty of room to run.
- [15:42]
A
Oh, music to your ears.
- [15:43]
D
Well, I think that's where we are. I also think it's happening at a time when at least for now and ultimately like many things, a commodity shock could lead to all kinds of other shock. Now we've got global GDP that's in a really good spot. We actually have demand in terms of some of the core commodities that's very strong. But what seems to tie together with again these long tail resource moves, whether it's supercycle, our international markets, Anglo and global commodities tend to move together. These were underperforming trades for over a decade and I think we've been talking about them in concert for a reason.
- [16:17]
A
Well, meantime, shares of meta jumping 2% today after Rothschild upgraded the stock from market perform to buy. Analysts saying the company is best positioned to capitalize on agentic AI for small businesses and entertainment AI for consumers. The firm also boosting its price target from 740 to $900 a share. That's nearly a 35% gain from today's close. Meta reports earnings on Wednesday. Do you think the setup is still good, Karen? I mean this is after the Jefferies note last week 5 reasons to buy Metta.
- [16:45]
E
So I think the stock was maybe around 612 or so before that note came out. So now okay, so now it's $60 higher. That's 10%. I'd much rather it be lower going into earnings than this set up But I do think it has been kind of overdone similar thesis for both that the expectations are pretty low that if they have any improvement on expenses either outside of the big capex or even a little bit mod a little bit under the capex that they talked about that that would be good that the underlying business is very good and then they have future ways to monetize and then there's the big question mark of their AI strategy for you know will proved to be something that people want to use and right now it's just a giant hole of money but ultimately it's possible that it could be something more than that. So it's not expensive but this risk reward has changed a little bit. I would probably be you know long some sell some calls into earnings.
- [17:43]
A
Are we at the point a lot actually yeah. In the Meta story at least where if they back off of capex projections even a little bit that that's a positive.
- [17:51]
B
I think so I think, I mean I don't think first of all I think the quarter is going to be fine and you know anything on the margins, it's not suggested can continue to go down that rabbit hole I think is going to get the stock higher. I think the setup is actually still pretty good despite the move that we've seen. And you know, forget about what we saw in August of last year when I think it traded 800. The prior all time high was in February, about 725. That's where I think it's headed post earnings.
- [18:14]
D
Yeah, that is. It stopped rallying really with the last greatest capex announcement. I do think if they tap the brakes on CapEx, you're going to see the stock has room to rally it again. There's going to be zero wrong with the numbers they report and I thought the best or the most convincing because it was, it was a great article by Brent Hill but I should say research piece. It absolutely talked about that discount of Google to Metta and I think that's what's most fascinating. This is a trading show. I mean the dynamic, the move in Google has been extraordinary. The discount to Google of matter is something that is worth playing I think on a pair.
- [18:50]
C
I mean I would just say the burden of proof is on the ball. Right. If you were to look at January 28, 2025, it was 674. Here we are January 27, 2026 at 672. So this major, well it's a major asset that has gone sideways for a year. In a very dynamic tape you make money, lose money and press metals or this stock that. So it's either the pause or refreshes. This is the setup that causes a breakout. But I'd rather play on strength. I'd rather miss an earnings jump and then play after that than anticipate it.
- [19:20]
E
There is a little reason to be positive about the cap, not capex. The regular expenses coming in a little bit. Remember they've had some layoffs. Right. Metaverse shrinking. So I'm long and a little nervous.
- [19:32]
A
We got some breaking news out of D.C. the president just announcing he is increasing tariffs on South Korea. In a post on Truth Social he says South Korea's legislature is not living up to its deal with the United States. President Lee and I reached a great deal in July of last year. Why hasn't the Korean legislature approved it? As a result, Trump says he is increasing tariffs on South Korean autos, lumber pharma and all other reciprocal tariffs from 15 to 25%. When I heard this over the transom into my ear at first I immediately thought about memory and chips and whether or not we would see Any sort of tariffs on that, according to this post on Truth Social Media. None of that so far, but obviously that would have a major impact in terms of what has gone on with.
- [20:17]
D
Chip makers, no question. And if you're buying the EWI, which is the Korea ETF, which I do buy, it's about 46% right away with, with Samsung and Hynix. And then you get a lot more memory in there too. And as, as we've tried to point out around this desk that the dynamic with memory is fascinating because it really has separated itself from CPU gpu. But I think at some point this really is a commodity again and this is another one of these things that you didn't expect. But maybe that's a signal to see some of that pullback.
- [20:49]
B
Yeah, I'm not sure what it means, if anything for the broader market and we've been down this road before but again, it didn't come out of the blue. There's clearly some catalysts for this because as he said in the tweet, this was this deal was struck many months ago and now all of a sudden it's coming to light. So there's obviously something else brewing, I would imagine.
- [21:07]
A
Coming up, insurers getting hit on reports the White House could hold Medicare rates steady next year. The impact on the sector plus a private credit crunch. One major investment firm raising a red flag for the space. What is behind this warning and what it means for PE in 2026? Do not go anywhere. That's when he's back into.
- [21:27]
D
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A
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- [22:22]
E
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C
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- [22:29]
B
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- [22:31]
A
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C
It helped me move better.
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D
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- [23:17]
B
Ask your rheumatologist about Cosentyx.
- [23:24]
A
Welcome back to FAST money. Health insurance stocks dropping after hours. The Wall Street Journal reporting the Trump administration is proposing a less than 0.1% increase in the Medicare rate. The rate which would go into effect next year is far less than the 4 to 6% increase analysts were expecting. Rates rose more than 5% this year. For more, let's bring in Lance Wilk, senior research analyst at Bernstein. He joins us on the fast line. Lance, great to have you with us. There's a couple of components in the Wall Street Journal report. First, is this basically leaving the rate virtually unchanged compared to that 5% increase which we saw in 2025. Then there's also the aspect of the Medicare agency looking to eliminate a very lucrative billing practice, industry practice. How do you sort of view both of those components of.
- [24:09]
G
Yeah, you know, I would agree that this is a much lower rate than was expected. And when you look at the release from cms, it looks like they've included that change to the risk adjustment profile or policy in this 0%. So it looks like the core rate would be more like 1.5%. And then they've got a 1.5% decline as a result of excluding kind of chart reviews from risk adjustment. So it looks like they're pulling forward what might have been like the Cassidy bill or some policy later in the year into this. And so perhaps that's not quite as bad as had been expected, but overall a very disappointing rate.
- [24:53]
A
We're seeing the stock sell off in the after hours session, Lance, and I'm wondering if you think this is justified or if this is overblown at this point.
- [25:00]
G
You know, I think that I think relative to expectations and perhaps some of the recent run up in the stocks, this is very much a disappointment. Having said that, I think from from an investor standpoint the way to think about this is, you know, the rate was 5% in 23 and margins declined 200 basis points because of unexpectedly bad utilization. And the same sort of thing happened in 24. Too much competition and. But a low rate, 25, which we had a very low rate, you know, about negative 2% rate margins were flat, maybe even up a little bit. For most people other than United, 26 is a good rate. We ought to have some margin expansion. The key thing here is going to be pricing discipline. And I think what you're going to see with this is companies taking an approach like United is taking this year where they're going to be cutting back on benefits, narrowing their networks and really working on trying to deliver a lower cost solution to the government. And within that context, because competition is withdrawing, these companies can incrementally improve their margins. And you know, you're going to probably get I think 100 basis points of improvement in 26, 27 a year like this. And if you had other years like this, I think you're Talking more like 25 or 50 basis point moves but moves up in margin. So I think you can continue to grind forward. I had only been expecting 50 basis point moves up in my United expectations. So I think actually from an investor standpoint, you can look at this and say that you can still make the numbers, but I think that the from a sentiment is going to pull back. That's probably going to hit valuations a little bit.
- [26:40]
E
Lance, it's Karen, thanks for being on. So there's something normally they tell the number and that's what it is. There's something about this that feels like maybe it's a little bit of a negotiation. Do you read it that way or. That's it. The number is 0.09 and whatever the change in the product.
- [26:56]
G
No, I would agree with you. I think that, I think there's some things that are indicative of they're trying to make this a stabilized program going forward. There's some commentary down in the footnotes about that kind of an olive branch there. The other thing that they're doing is they're basically proposing that they're going to change risk adjustment by a percent and a half. And so they may refine that and it might not be quite as large of a negative hit to this going forward. The other thing is typically this is the advance rate. We'll get a final rate in about two months. Normally that's about 100 basis points higher. So from a negotiation standpoint, I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with something more like a one to one and a half percent rate on this basis and then you will have de risked yourself from policy through 2627 when you probably had a good risk that Senator Cassidy's bill was going to come after risk adjustment.
- [27:52]
A
Lance, thanks for phoning in. Appreciate it. Lance Wilkins of Bernstein unh, one of the sharp performers lower in the after hours session. UNH is also Lance's top pick for 2026.
- [28:04]
D
And I heard from Lance and what it seems based on the numbers is that the street hadn't really priced in a whole lot for Medicare Advanced. And so that that's why this is a little puzzling. It does seem that this is just another place where there's more pressure on the health insurers again. In other words, we've gone through this a couple of times. UNH is lost its multiple and it's lost its multiple while it's lost some of its earnings power but not as much relative to the multiple contraction. I think this is an opportunity after hours. I'm long.
- [28:34]
A
UNH was a godlike stock at one.
- [28:36]
C
Point the best performing stock right on its time frame burst. Apple, Microsoft, it's bombed out. A bearish to bullish reversal buy. I would concur with Tim.
- [28:45]
B
You know what I've noticed today? I agree by the way. This is. Yeah. Do you see that? Can we do it?
- [28:50]
A
The lack of shaving on this.
- [28:51]
B
What's going on here? I mean I shave just cause it's stagnant. It snows.
- [28:54]
A
Tim and Carter razors. Apparently they can't find a razor.
- [28:58]
D
Look, I can't help it that in a half a day this is what happens to me. You know, I mean it was stormy yesterday. What's a guy to do? I was out there shoveling stuff.
- [29:07]
A
Sure, yeah.
- [29:08]
B
Look presentable on the tell.
- [29:09]
A
Yeah, sure you were, Tim. There's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.
- [29:18]
D
Millions of Americans digging out from this weekend's massive winter storm.
- [29:22]
F
Thousands of flights canceled.
- [29:23]
D
When to expect relief from these freezing.
- [29:26]
F
Temperatures and the impact on airlines as carriers rush to get back on track. But first, another alarm bell in the private credit space. What one firm is flagging and how.
- [29:36]
D
The traders view the long struggling stocks. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.
- [29:53]
A
Oh, could this vintage store be any cuter? Right.
- [29:56]
E
And the best part, they accept Discover.
- [29:59]
A
Except Discover in a little place like this. I don't think so. Jennifer.
- [30:03]
C
Oh, yeah.
- [30:03]
D
Huh?
- [30:04]
E
Discover's accepted where I like to shop.
- [30:06]
D
Come on, baby.
- [30:07]
A
Get with the times. Right. So we shouldn't get the parachute pants.
- [30:12]
E
These are making a comeback, I think.
- [30:16]
D
Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide. Based on the February 2025 Nielsen report.
- [30:24]
A
Department of Rejected Dreams. If you had a dream rejected, IKEA can make it possible.
- [30:28]
D
So I always dreamed of having a man cave, but the wife doesn't like it. What if I called it a woman cave?
- [30:34]
A
Okay, so let's not do that. But add some relaxing lighting and a comfy IKEA hofburg ottoman. And now it's a cozy retreat.
- [30:41]
D
Nice. A cozy retreat, man. Cozy retreat, sir.
- [30:45]
A
Okay. Find your big dreams, small dreams and cozy retreat dreams in store or online at ikea.us dream the possibilities, guys.
- [30:54]
F
It's no use putting it off.
- [30:55]
D
The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy Don Underwear is designed for a perfect fit that's stays put all day. There's zero chafe, thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands.
- [31:05]
C
And their innovative horizontal Quick draw fly.
- [31:07]
F
Is a game changer.
- [31:08]
D
With over 30 million pairs sold, there.
- [31:10]
F
Are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.
- [31:12]
C
Don't settle for less.
- [31:13]
D
Go to tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code COMFORT. That's tommyjohn.comfort. tommy John Comfort.
- [31:22]
F
Perfected.
- [31:24]
A
Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of BlackRock's private credit fund TCP Capital, shedding 13% today. Its largest drop since March 2020 after the company cut the net value of its assets by 19% after a series of troubled loans weighed on its portfolio. The stock has lost nearly half its value in the last year. Private equity stocks such as kkr, tpg, Apollo and Ares all falling to falling today. Guy, we're watching this very closely and I'm not.
- [31:50]
B
It's not like I'm splitting the atom here because as Tim mentioned, CNBC.com did a piece on this on Friday and a lot of people have been talking about. Jamie Dimon has been talking about it. But it is worth noting and I'm looking at a Powell. I mean, this is a stock that made its all time high in December of 2024. As with KKR, a lot of these names. So the stocks are trading like there may actually be a problem. So we'll see a lot of bankruptcies late last year in companies that these direct lenders lend it to. Again, as Jamie says, there's never just one cockroach. So we'll see. But in my opinion, especially if yields start going higher, it's something worth watching.
- [32:22]
A
For TCP Specifically, it was six portfolio companies that were accounted for 67% of the loss there. So that's interesting. And sort of concentrated. They are most leveraged to software and.
- [32:35]
D
Software, electronics and whatnot. Again, the idea is that private credit has been an extraordinary development. The accessibility of private credit, the ability of major lenders to step in and actually fill a void, especially in middle markets. Now that whole concept is alive and well, especially with GDP doing well. Part of the concern around this is not that we've had a macro change, but that some of the underwriting standards have gotten lax, some of the dynamics around risk have changed and you get small hits to certain, certain sectors and you can start to see this. So I don't, you know, right now I don't think this is a run for the hills. I think this is a case where first of all, I mean, BlackRock has noted that it's a markdown on Nav and they've actually made mark to markets on portfolios. I believe all other credit players would be doing the same thing. And you have to believe there's transparency there. So far we haven't heard that from other people.
- [33:32]
A
Coming up, millions of Americans still digging out from a blanket of snow today as subzero temperatures persist across the country. What to expect the rest of the week and the impact on the travel space after thousands of flights get canceled. Fast Money is back in two. Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks starting the week in the green as investors brace for a slew of corporate earnings. The Dow jumping more than 300 points. The S and P up half a percent. And the Nasdaq also climbing more than 0.4%. The S& P and Nasdaq both now on a four day winning streak. Shares of consulting firm Booz Allen Hamilton dropping more than 8% today. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant saying the treasury has canceled contracts with the company after an employee leaked President Donald Trump's tax records as well as those of Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk to media outlets. And shares of GameStop jumping more than 4%. Big Short Investor Michael Burry says he's been buying the stock that he believes in CEO Ryan Cohen and that GameStop is a long term value play rather than a bet on renewed meme stock speculation. He called it a crappy company and that Ryan Cohen can milk whatever he can out of it.
- [34:42]
E
Right. I mean for him to be long, the stock was up, I guess Intraday I don't know, let's say 4% had Roaring Kitty bought GameStop back in the. It would be, I don't know.
- [34:53]
D
Is game stock a gold company now? Gold Miner.
- [34:56]
B
Could you imagine?
- [34:56]
A
You're thinking of amc. But they sold high profit. I mean last year they've done all.
- [35:00]
D
Kinds of, you know, AI and crypto things. We've, we've. Yes, sorry. But you know, they're probably going to be a gold company.
- [35:08]
B
So Karen's point is well taken off. It had been roaring. That would have been, you put, you know, would have been a 25, 30% move, without question. But, but it's interesting that a guy like Michael Burry is finding his way to GameStop. I mean, I can't speak intelligently about a lot of things, least of which the fundamentals of GameStop, if there are any.
- [35:25]
A
At least 19 states seeing more than a foot of snowfall during this weekend's storm, according to the National Weather Service. But as the snow tapers off, millions across the US now face dangerously cold temperatures. AccuWeather's Jeff Cornish joins us with more. Hey, Jeff.
- [35:40]
D
This is a mess out there, Melissa. Even though the freezing rain has stopped falling, the sleet is over, the snow is winding down into England. A lot of people are without power. If you're in one of these maroon counties, you're either at a hotel or you're probably not tuned in because you don't have electricity right now. 80 plus percent of those maroon counties in parts of Mississippi especially a lot of people also into the Nashville Metro in the dark right now after that freezing rain event, that massive ice storm. So we have still many, many without power. Huge numbers of people in the dark at this point. And we have extreme cold that's setting in. So anybody who doesn't have the ability to keep themselves warm or the pipes warm, we're going to have a lot of frozen pipes out there. As this arctic air presses south 15 to 30 degrees below the historical averages. If you're that cold, that much colder than the norm in April, it's chilly. If you're that much colder than average in January, it's a big problem. We're looking at a record breaking low tonight in D.C. of 5, record of 6 from 1935. Dallas gets down to 9 and the record low there to beat is 12. During the day we're going to see a little bit of a thaw, but it's not much ineffective sunshine. So just a little bit of melting from that ice in the trees. We're right back down below freezing again over the next several nights. And if you're in the dark blue, you're going to stay below freezing consistently into February. Melissa.
- [36:55]
A
All right, Jeff. Thanks. Jeff Cornish, the whiteout also leading to historic numbers of flight cancellations in the US With Sunday marking the most in one day since the pandemic. For more on the impact to airlines, let's bring in Phil LeBeau. Hey, Phil.
- [37:08]
D
Hey, Melissa. It is improving. If you are headed somewhere, your flight is more likely to be making to its destination over the next couple of days. That said, we saw a slew of cancellations today after the worst day since the pandemic yesterday. That made the weekend cancellations Yesterday was over 11,000 total of 15,715 for the weekend. You see today it's better but still not good. 5210 flights canceled tomorrow, only 274. That number is going to increase. But as I checked in with the airlines and I've asked people within the industry, what are you expecting? They are expecting it to be improving the airline stocks under a little bit of pressure. We're showing you Delta, JetBlue, I'm sorry, Delta, Alaska and United, they all reported their earnings last week. They, like all of the other airlines, are slowly planning to ramp up their schedules over the next couple of days. Meanwhile, American and JetBlue, they report their results tomorrow. We'll see what they have to say about a possible impact here. And then you have Southwest reporting on Thursday. Remember, it also begins its assigned seating tomorrow. And one last note for you, Melissa, don't forget that on Squawk on the street tomorrow, shortly after they release their Q4 results, we'll be talking with the CEO of Boeing, Kelly Wartburg. That is an exclusive you do not want to miss. We'll see what they have to say about how they finished up 25 and the outlook for 26.
- [38:27]
A
Yep, that's going to be a good one. Thank you, Phil. Phil LeBeau, for the airline specifically, do we just look through this is just, you know, it happened and that happens?
- [38:37]
D
I think you do. I think American, JetBlue spirit were particularly badly hit. And then there are some regional airlines that were in parts of the world that parts of the country that weren't so bad. But I don't, I don't think you get into a dynamic here again. I think the things that are driving airlines right now are probably jet fuel prices. And I think we're starting to see an uptick there.
- [38:57]
B
I think the average price target according to street accounts for Delta is 84. I think there are about 30 analysts to cover it. And you see where we're trading now. And this can just sort of, no pun intended, levitate, just on a valuation rerating into earnings in April. So, yeah, I like.
- [39:12]
D
What's the cruising altitude of the stock for 33,000.
- [39:15]
B
Oh, yeah.
- [39:16]
D
I mean, it'll be a stock target.
- [39:18]
B
If I. Cruising altitude. 85. That's easy to get to.
- [39:21]
D
Cruising altitude. Altitude.
- [39:22]
B
So we're like 67 right now. Okay, so we still have.
- [39:25]
A
I don't know what you're talking about.
- [39:26]
B
No cruising altitude.
- [39:29]
D
It's just not funny. It's what you say, you know, don't.
- [39:32]
F
Do that, Tim, don't.
- [39:34]
B
Just because it's not funny. Don't say that. I just want to brought it up. If it's not funny, it was because of you, not because of me.
- [39:41]
D
Lighten up.
- [39:42]
A
Both of you are not funny. Coming up, banking on the charts. Financials underperforming the broader market so far this year. Where the chartmaster sees the group heading next when Fast Money returns.
- [39:53]
D
As our country celebrates its 250th anniversary, CNBC spotlights the leaders driving business and the nation forward. I grew up in a small town in western Tennessee. When I say small, I mean about 10,000 people.
- [40:08]
B
And I'm the middle child of seven.
- [40:10]
D
I tell people I won the lottery.
- [40:12]
B
With two winning tickets.
- [40:13]
D
I was born in America and I.
- [40:15]
B
Was born with two great parents. My parents taught us a couple of.
- [40:18]
D
Fundamental things, and that is you couldn't.
- [40:20]
B
Allow your surroundings to limit your vision of your future. Because I could stand in my front yard and I could look to the.
- [40:26]
D
North, south, east and west and nothing looked like success. My parents encouraged us about the power of education, the power of believing that you could be anything you wanted to be. And so I look back at that.
- [40:38]
B
And I'm incredibly fortunate. My dad is my ultimate role model. It's great that in one generation he.
- [40:43]
D
Can go from Jim Crow segregation to seeing his son be the chairman CEO.
- [40:49]
B
Of two Fortune 500 companies. And that can only happen in America.
- [41:00]
A
Welcome back to Fast Money. The financials have been struggling since kicking off earnings season. The group currently the worst performing sector this year. And the chartmaster Carter Wirth says it is time to sell the financial ETF xlf. Carter, what do the charts say?
- [41:13]
C
Well, before we get to the charts, we know that this is the second biggest sector in the market, right at around 13% weight. And we know the top five stocks represent 40% of the sector. Of course, led with Berkshire and then JP Morgan, Visa, MasterCard and Bank America. But let's look at two charts. They're identical and they're both two panel charts. The top panel is the past three years. It is the XLF ETF, the ETF that tracks the S&P 500 financial sector. And the bottom panel is relative performance is what alpha is all about. That's relative to the S&P 500. And we are hovering at three year lows. So even as the sector has been advancing, it is as a choice been a bad one. Right now the question is, is it going to get worse still? I think so. Second of the two identical charts, just another way to draw the lines. And so so you have characteristics that are undesirable, which is poor relative strength, poor action in response to earnings. And you have bifurcation. You have big insurers having rolled over, stalling Visa Mascot and then you have extended spiking type action. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. So there's real winners and losers but the extended ones are vulnerable to profit taking and or shorting. And the ones that have rolled over, look what just we heard after the close, there's pressure on insurance stocks. It's not a good setup.
- [42:30]
A
Yeah. Are you worried about the extended ones in your portfolio?
- [42:33]
E
The extended XLF ones? J.P. morgan, I mean it's J.P. morgan. So I do feel like it deserves a premium multiple. It has a premium multiple for sure. But I think right now Citibank, which has also been under pressure. I like Citibank. If I own none, I would absolutely buy Citibank right here. The XLF though, it does have Berkshire.
- [42:55]
A
Yeah.
- [42:55]
E
And the two, Visa and MasterCard if you take those out, because I don't want to own those, I'm feeling okay with my bank exposure.
- [43:03]
D
That was my point is that MasterCard, Visa and AmEx are probably, I can tell you they're, they're about 16% of of that ETF, not even including then Berkshire. So that may have something to do with the tone here. But there's no arguing that that financials roared into. Speaking of roaring kitty it roaring financials into earnings.
- [43:23]
A
But you're saying that the extended ones are due for a pullback specifically.
- [43:26]
C
Well again if you, if you think of bifurcations typically resolve poorly. So we have it in semis, semis that are steep and uncorrected. But a Vago Nvidia stalled it usually means that weakness that's foreshadowing the end of Iran and things that are overdone and that often bifurcation is resolved by the weak ones that are stalling, getting worse and the extended ones succumbing.
- [43:48]
B
Bank of America has found its way to two times tangible book. It's also found its way to the high that we saw in the summer of 2006. So potentially a 20 year double top. I think BAC goes lower.
- [43:58]
A
All right, coming up, Core, we've getting a big vote of confidence from an AI hyperscaler. What the Nvidia investment says about the state of spending and what it could mean for the space. More fast money into. Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares at Core weave jumping nearly 17% after highs. Nvidia announced it was investing $2 billion in the infrastructure company. The deal will allow the company to expand the capacity of its AI factories to 5 gigawatts by 2030. Core Weave CEO Michael and Trader joined CNBC earlier today with Nvidia's Jensen Huang to talk about what the deal means for the company.
- [44:39]
D
It allows us to deliver our software solution to those consumers and that is a market that we haven't really been able to open up. You know, ordinarily we build within our own data center. Now we're going to be able to build within our own data center and we're also adding the ability to deliver software so other people can use our solution for their builds. And that's a huge market for us.
- [45:05]
A
All right, so does this alleviate the concerns that have been plaguing the stock around financing about using high interest debt in order to buy things like chips and fund its expansions?
- [45:16]
E
Does it alleviate it? It helps for today. It may help for longer than today. I think they also did a good job when their stock was up of doing some converts. What are now ridiculous prices so good for them. The bonds, you know, the2030s, which are I think the most liquid are 20, 30 ones. Those were up two and a half or three points each. So that's nice. I don't know that this changes the macro fear of how is this all.
- [45:41]
A
Going to get done right in the circular financing that Nvidia and Core, I.
- [45:45]
D
Guess, I mean, you know, Cor Weave is an AI infrastructure company. Nvidia is an infrastructure company and that's the story that is held, seemingly held the stock back for the last six months. I think it's interesting. I think we don't really know how to value a lot of these investments for Nvidia and I think we're worried about some of the spending being circular.
- [46:06]
B
I'm going to put my Carter hat on real quick and Go back.
- [46:08]
A
Carter's right here.
- [46:09]
C
Sorry. Put it on. Put your own on.
- [46:11]
A
Hat on.
- [46:12]
D
Yeah. Don't steal his hat.
- [46:14]
B
My own hat.
- [46:15]
F
Sorry.
- [46:15]
B
Mel. Is a downtrend from June of last year when it made an all time high of 183. The third point comes in around 110 or so which we basically sort of got to today. So I think buyer beware here on a technical as it fit.
- [46:27]
D
Carter, your. Your hat on.
- [46:29]
E
How.
- [46:29]
A
What is your. What does your hat say?
- [46:30]
C
It's over my eyes. I can't see. Okay. No, I. I'd say a little higher.
- [46:35]
A
Okay. All right. Up next, final trades, Final trade time. Tim, Health care.
- [46:47]
D
We are seeing this Novo rally relative to Lilly in the oilfield. This is also the end in guys. Junk, apparently.
- [46:56]
E
Yes. And it's in. I'll be dangling.
- [47:00]
D
It's the Z.
- [47:00]
E
No, it's the end. But anyway, Amazon, we don't see earnings until the 5th of February, but I think that AWS is going to crush it.
- [47:09]
A
Carter.
- [47:10]
C
An important day for silver and I'm a seller guy.
- [47:13]
B
I just want to say that Miles Ross we're all very familiar with, he's done an amazing job. Great job, Gilead.
- [47:20]
A
All right, thanks for watching Fast. See you tomorrow on overtime. Mad Money starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer Bob Evans.
- [47:59]
D
Creamy Mac and cheese and buttery mashed potatoes are made for the moments you can't plan, like last minute school costumes, glitter explosions or when little Liam brings three friends for dinner. No plan, no problem. Say hello to plan B O B from Bob Evans. Because when you bring out the Bob, you can take comfort in knowing you'll always have something delicious on the table, no matter what the day brings. When you need comfort, bring out the Bob. Available now in your refrigerated section.