
Apple & Amazon the latest big tech names to report results. The headlines from the company conference calls, and what top tech analyst Gene Munster sees in store for the group. Plus Eli Lilly jumping as its obesity drug sales soar. How the company is moving the needle in the weight loss wars, and the other pharma stocks moving on potential M&A action. Fast Money Disclaimer
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Guy Adami
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Melissa Lee
Live in the NASDAQ markets in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. The busiest day of earnings culminates with big gains for Apple and Amazon. The company is adding more than $400 billion to their combined market caps. After hours, we'll dig into the latest numbers from big tech and beyond. Netflix. Meantime, popping on news of a 10 for 1 stock split. Is this a move to become the next Dow component? We'll debate that later. A meta meltdown, shares of the social media giant seeing one of their worst days on record. What the move says about investors appetite for air spending, plus a burrito blowout for shareholders. Eli Lilly widens the gap with rival Novo Nordisk. And gold's next move, the precious metal, well off record highs. How much lower could it go? We'll go into the charts to find out. I'm Melissa Lee coming to you live in studio. Be at the NASDAQ on the desk tonight, Carter Worth, Courtney Garcia, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami. We start off with another big night of tech earnings kicking things off with Apple stock rebounding for early losses, now higher by just about 4% after beating earnings and in forecasts giving strong guidance. The conference call kicked off at the top of the hour. Cnbc. Steve Kovac is in Cupertino with the numbers. Steve?
Steve Kovac
Yeah, sure. I mean this price increase or the stock increase that we're seeing right now, Melissa, this is all because of that strong guidance. I'll get to that in just a second. But first, let's go over these results because there's a lot to unpack here. EPS was a beat at A$85. Street was looking for A$77 revenue. Just a small beat here. 1 or 2.47 billion. Street wanted to see 102.24 billion services revenue. This is the first time in a year that They've booked over $100 billion in services revenue and for the quarter it was up 15%. Now over to China, things didn't look quite as good. Sales were down three and a half percent. But like I said, the guidance is incredibly strong. I was talking to Tim Cook about these results. He was literally smiling and beaming about how excited and strong this he expects this December quarter to be. He says revenue for the whole company, top line revenue, 10 to 12% growth they're expecting and iPhone revenue, just the iPhone segment they're expecting double digit year over year growth and saying it's going to be the best December quarter ever for the iPhone, obviously the whole company as well. I also caught up with Tim Cook about just this iPhone 17 cycle. We've been hearing so much guys about the momentum behind it and excitement behind it and the growth behind it and even translating to the 16 because remember this September quarter only represents about a week and a half of iPhone 17 sales. So here Cook telling me about that quote on the 16 and 17 for Q4 several models were supply constrained and currently we're supply constrained on several models of the iPhone 17. So there you go. That is a lot of the demand driving the strong guidance in the December quarter on China telling me quote, we expect China to return to growth this quarter because of the reception of the iPhone there or the iPhone 17 family. And then of course we had to talk about artificial intelligence, especially this question about which company Apple may want to partner with as it pushes out that big update to Siri expected next year on artificial intelligence. Cook telling me in terms of integration for we've integrated with ChatGPT and our intention is to integrate with more people over time. No specific partnership to announce today, but you can think of it as more coming. So obviously a bunch of names have been thrown around in the last few months, whether it's Google, Gemini, Anthropic's, Claude model and of course ChatGPT could play in there as well. Mel, I'll send it back over to you.
Melissa Lee
Any color from Cook in your conversation. Steve, about the demand for the base level model versus the pro and the pro Max.
Steve Kovac
We don't get into. Yeah, we didn't get into the mix of iPhone sales. I did ask him a little bit about delay in China of the iPhone air. It was delayed by a few weeks. He said he expects that just to pull forward the demand. I know we saw some reports a couple of days ago about really strong demand for the air in China, but we've also seen just globally it seems like the iPhone air and this is according to third party reports, of course, that is a little bit of the weaker of the family. While the base model of the iPhone, which Tim Cook did tell me has been attractive because a lot of those pro features have made its way down to that base model of the iPhone. So you can get some pro features at that base level and then of course the pros are always hot sellers, especially in the US now.
Melissa Lee
All right, Steve, thanks. Keep us posted on what goes on. Call Steve Kovac and Cupertino. Overall, there's not a lot to pick at in terms of the quarter guy, but when Tim Cook is smiling talking about the results, I know that it's irks you, of course to you and.
Dan Nathan
I'm smoking me ear to your baby, smiling ear to you.
Melissa Lee
If you wanted to say hey but.
Dan Nathan
Wait, I'll give you a few hey but waits. Now people will say the numbers are astronomical. We'd never dismiss the numbers. They are $102 billion record quarter revenue. Absolutely. If you look at their services now, 27% of overall revenue, tremendous growth there, 76% margins in services that deserve it of a higher valuation. But then you say to yourself, well wait a second, they're still growing. High single digits, maybe low double digits revenue mid high single digits, low double digits, earnings growth. And you're paying at this price almost 34 times next year's numbers. So the numbers are great. That's the valuation that should still be concerning. Despite all those accolades I just gave out.
Melissa Lee
Not concerning to people in general. I mean the stock's up 30% going into earnings over the past three months. 52 week high in today's session.
Guy Adami
Yeah, if you don't care about valuation and I think in a market like this, really people don't. I think with a company like Apple, you want to see this move back towards double digit hardware sales or iPhone in particular. They haven't had that in a very long time. And to Guy's point about accelerating services, you know, getting back to that 20%. I think one of the biggest differentiations of this story versus the other in the mag seven is we've been going back, forget Tesla, but the hyperscalers and the like, we've been going back and forth is like, is this CapEx over the last couple of years, it good, is it bad? Is it misallocation of resources here or there? You know, you're throwing caution, the wind. You know, Apple as a percent of the revenues, their CapEx has been tiny and it's been tiny relative to that of their, you know, big mega cap peers. Now you could say that's bad because they're not building the infrastructure they're going to need going forward. You could also say it's all going to be commoditized and they're going to be able to build businesses on the back of it, you know, and I think that's probably what what's coming out right here. I don't think that this cycle on the hardware, while it is good, I don't think it has much to do with, you know, AI in general. Like let's see what the Siri roll out, let's see what some of the services that are built in and around, let's see who they partner with. I think this is going to be really important, but I do ultimately believe that if they're in a partner with Gemini and they have that deal with Google Search on Safari, I think that's probably the best bet for them going forward and then let app developers figure out what the experience is going to be on an iPhone.
Melissa Lee
Does the valuation of Apple concern you, Courtney? And relative to, you know, what we got from Meta yesterday, where capex is going to increase notably next year with no fixed number given at a lower valuation than Apple with a higher valuation, I mean, which one would you prefer?
Courtney Garcia
Yeah, I think that is the problem with Apple. It is the valuation and the no I story. So I do think it's good that you are going to continue to see these iPhone sales that are picking up. We were hoping that was going to happen with the iPhone 16. It didn't happen. It's hopefully happening with the iPhone 17. I do think it's concerning seeing how there aren't any China. The China sales were actually quite a bit of a miss there. But hopefully that's going to look better moving forward. But you know, as good as the numbers look, I just don't think it justifies that kind of valuation. I do think compared to Metta which just reported people are anxious about the amount of capex spending and at what point they're going to monetize that. I think that's been a positive for Apple because they don't have it. So I don't think it's a benefit for Apple. It's just like if you're going to compare the two and you're worried about Capex, well maybe you look back at Apple again and that's what happened back in April. If you remember when people were concerned about it, Apple was doing fine. You're kind of starting to see that trend pick up again.
Melissa Lee
I mentioned the run into the earnings Carter of Apple. You could have easily seen a reason to sell sell in the news kind of event. What does the chart look like?
Carter Brax
Well, what do we know? That Apple has been a major laggard, right. Its relative performance to its sector peaked in 2022 and and it has been playing catch up ever since. The stock is only just now breaking out above its pre tariff sell off high. So that high was to 60. It lost some 34% in the tariff sell off much more than the S and P. It is now recoup that loss and is only slightly above where it started. I would play for higher prices.
Melissa Lee
We've got another earnings alert we want to get to. Amazon shares surging after the company beat top and bottom line estimates. Cloud revenue growth was up 20%. That was well above expectations and higher than last quarter's growth. Let's bring in CBs Mackenzie Seagalas for the details. Mac.
Courtney Garcia
So Mel, Amazon stock trades on cloud and that business is finally back in acceleration mode, riding rising at its fastest pace since 2022 and beating Wall Street's expectations with $33 billion in revenue. And that's helping ease fears about Amazon losing big ticket AI deals to Google and Microsoft CEO Andy Jassy saying in the shareholder letter that is seeing strong demand in both AI and and core infrastructure, noting that the company has been focused on expanding compute capacity to meet that surge. The report helps offset softer retail growth with online store revenue slowing down and ad service revenue. Amazon's high fast growing business, high margin, fast growing business came in flat. But US it's setting up Amazon for its first ever $200 billion quarter with the company expecting nearly $210 billion in revenue in Q4. That's what that's what they're projecting. And that call which is underway now, they say backlog to $200 billion by the end of Q3. And that doesn't include several unannounced new deals in October, which together is more than their total deal volume for all of the third quarter. That's probably why you're seeing those shares up around 13% right now. Mel.
Melissa Lee
All right, Mac, thank you. Keep us posted. On the call, Mackenzie Sagalos guy finally beat expectations on us and good for them.
Dan Nathan
And I'm looking at this. Remember there were days when we used to do the show where operating margins for Amazon were 3, 4%, 12% operating margin. So they're obviously doing things the right way and it's deserved of even this valuation, which is not ridiculous. So this move to me makes sense. I don't know how Carter feels technically, but you're through those prior highs. I think the stock can continue to go higher in the back of this quarter.
Melissa Lee
How do you feel technically?
Steve Kovac
Yes.
Carter Brax
Well, as opposed to fundamentally or quantitatively or. But politically. But here's the reality. We know that this has been a major laggard. Right. You're talking about a stock that its relative performance peaked to the S and P in 2020 and that's because it was such a massive outperformer during COVID when they were the provider of everything to everybody locked at home. It is a laggard that is only now playing catch up. I suspect this gap up has room to run once you clear a former high in principle, as a matter of technique, you're in sort of free territory and you can move higher. There's no overhead supply.
Melissa Lee
Courtney, what do you make of the quarter?
Courtney Garcia
Yeah, I think this is what you want to see when we're talking about these stories. You need to see that they're having the growth to go along with it. And I think the fact that you're finally. Their cloud, their cloud segment is actually growing faster than expected. People were worried that Google and Microsoft are really eating their lunch and you're not seeing that happening. They're actually finally starting to sell.
Melissa Lee
Right.
Courtney Garcia
So this is exactly what you want to see, an earnings report. When there's this big question of is AI in a bubble? You want to see them actually having something to show for it.
Melissa Lee
Right. That and also the prime subscription fees are going to go up in 2026. There are some operational fulfillment efficiencies which can be re, you know, wrenched out of the system here. So they could actually pull the lever.
Guy Adami
Yeah, I mean, one thing I'd say is that 17% year over year growth in the last quarter, if it had come below that right now, I mean, the stock would be down 13%. So like the fact that it's up 20%, that's great. So you're seeing a reacceleration in that growth. You know, we've seen like the shifting fortunes as it relates to Azure and GCP from Google. I mean, those Companies are growing their clouds faster, but US has more market share. Right. And they don't. And we talked about this week, I'm totally wrong about that. I thought of all these names, this one was probably going to be the worst result. And you know, I think the jury's still out because you talk about from a margin perspective, that is what this company has been built on over the last 15 years, this mix shift between us and their core business. But you know, and Mac just said this, that advertising business, which has been a monster, it's been pure margin. There is going to be pressure on that. I don't know if it happens. Maybe Jean can help us out later. Whether it's, you know, Q1, 2026 or Q4 or 2027, but that's going to be something that's going to be a problem as open AI and some of these other models look to monetize and do it through advertising and they're going to do E commerce. And I think that's going to be put pressure on this ad business for Amazon.
Carter Brax
I mean, Dan brings up the point when we've talked about it back and forth, the this setting up was the worst setup. It turns out to be the best performer. We had it as a sell going into earnings this week. But again, it's always about sequencing. If this stock is up since the autumn of 2020, 30%, the S&P is up 100 and the NASDAQ one is up 150, is it a winner or isn't it? Meaning this is good here and now. And if one has played it okay, profits have been realized or there's more to come. But it has really been a disaster. There has been no alpha in Amazon for four years.
Melissa Lee
A disaster it is.
Carter Brax
I mean, the numbers speak for themselves. I mean, if you're up 30% and an index is up 100 plus and a NASDAQ 100 is up 150, you lose. I mean, your money was not allocated to the right area.
Dan Nathan
Carter will tell you that if you went to a cocktail party this weekend and bragged to your friends that you're up 30% in Amazon and they looked at you and said, loser, the broader market's up 100%. That's exactly right. So yeah, you're happy with that until you see what the broader market has done and he talks about the relative strength, it's been an underperformer. Now's the time though, at least in terms of Amazon, where I think you play a little bit of catch up.
Melissa Lee
All right. Meantime, President Trump and China's President Xi coming away from this morning's talks with some somewhat something of a trade truce. China agreeing to buy more soybeans from the US and postpone tighter rare earth export controls for one year while the US dropped fentanyl related tariffs. But questions remain over chip exports and tick tock broader markets seeming to shrug off the deal with the NASDAQ's 1 1/2% drop highlighting where investors are really focused. And that would be a matter getting hit hard. After saying in yesterday's earnings report that it will continue to increase Capex, the company now expects to spend a minimum of $70 billion this year. Shares seeing their worst day in three years. So is this a sign of what is really on the market's mind and how does the earnings picture that we've gotten tonight with two winners so far in the after hour session change that calculus?
Guy Adami
Well, it's hard. I mean we go into these weeks and we're like, well if they all go in the same direction, there is $17 trillion in market cap, then the market's going to get killed. And look at this, you know, we're down one and a half percent in the Nasdaq and probably in the aftermarket we're probably up half a percent or something like that. So at the end of day I think you have to think about it as a bit of a mosaic.
Steve Kovac
Right.
Guy Adami
And so what are these companies? What is their capex, what is their growth? What does it mean for the economy here? And I think it means a lot for the economy here. And I think if you look under the hood, yeah, there's some, there's some industries are doing just fine. We started earnings season with the banks. It looked really good. The consumer seems to be kind of fine. But if you look at the performance of the S and P and if you look at the performance of earnings and earnings growth in the S and P, it really is tied to these top 10 names. So the fact that none of them were disasters. Media, media seems pretty idiosyncratic. And you know, and Apple, we don't have to throw into the AI trade and they're not spending a lot as we just talked about. But I think we're getting close to a period and you could say, well you said this before, I think we're getting close to a period where a lot of this stuff is going to matter. Where are we going to monetize this? How are these companies going to get the sort of return on these sorts of investments? You say, well A lot of these companies are not spending a lot yet. Well, they kind of are. You know, I mean, they really are. I don't mean the hyperscalers, but I mean Meta is a perfect example. They are building out all of this infrastructure and they're not even leasing it out the way AWB and Google Cloud does and Oracle does and everything like that. So this is one that I think a lot of investors are going to get a little bit more specific about how this capital is being allocated and what they expect to get a return on.
Melissa Lee
We're showing the queues in the after hour session. So we're up more than a percent in the after session based on the results tonight. So it seems it sort of turn the markets around here based on the earnings reports we've gotten. Courtney, I mean, what's your feeling in terms of. Isn't this, I mean the Mosaic being everything except for Meta being an idiosyncratic is actually a good one. Big cap tech is actually doing okay. All the earnings came in pretty strong and here we are.
Courtney Garcia
Yeah, and I mean this is happening with all of your big tech earnings, but I mean it's been happening with the broader markets in general. You're seeing the earnings have been beating expectations, which is what we hoped, especially where in this period where the government is shut down and we're getting no data on GDP, we're not getting this data on consumer spending, etc. So we really have to look at these earnings and see how our company is faring, how are their consumers faring and the fact that we're continuing to see this all come out positive, I think it's a generally good sign for the economy moving forward, which I've been really happy to see.
Dan Nathan
All fair points. What we didn't mention the other day, and Doug Castle has been writing about this over the last couple of days, I think it was what, say Tuesday, the breadth of the market on an up day. 69% of stocks were lower on the day. That had never happened before, never as a long time. So the internals of the markets have been breaking down. Obviously some drivers are still continuing, but if you look under the hood, there are things to be concerned about. And I'll add this to the Mosaic very quietly. Bond market is starting to sell off again, which I think is going to be a continuation of a theme. So we'll see how that plays in as well.
Melissa Lee
All right, so how about the charts specifically? Aside from the Mosaic, carter on which 1s and P NASDAQ, it's all the.
Carter Brax
Same, it's all the same sequence. We have a general uptrend and then you get a, an event. It's news, it's tariffs. S and P dropped 21%. Nasdaq drops almost, almost 30. You recovered all that mensum. So is this a steep and uncorrected move from the April 7 flow? Working on seven months, up 45% for an aggregate without a single setback. As much as 5%. So if you look at all seven month runs going back the past 50 years where you haven't had so much as a 5%, you get 2, 3, 4. This is the 20th longest in 50 years. There are ones that go over a year, but we're in the outer stretches of what's normal without a general setback. I mean resets are good. It's just like the pause at the gym or the pause after hours of work. You get up and walk around. So the question is, does this need a pause? It hasn't had one and that makes it vulnerable.
Melissa Lee
All right, we're watching shares of Amazon, by the way, after our session highs. We're looking at gains of up 15% right now. So that is definitely helping buoy the NASDAQ 100 in the after hours session. We're going to be keeping an eye on Apple as well as Amazon as we get the details from the conference calls, the headlines, plus the after hours action in shares of Roku, Reddit and more. All those moving to all that ahead in a safe haven. Sell why the Charmaster is doubling down on his sell gold Call the move the next move for the metals that remains off record. Highs do not go anywhere. Fast money's back in two. The heaviest metal credit card of all.
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Steve Kovac
Interesting.
Guy Adami
In a quarter where we saw a number of competitors come public, right? Or at least over the last four or five months or so, and you know, we look at these earnings, you look at these sales, they're really lumpy, right? It has a lot do to to do with the trading and we know that a lot of the trading goes on among retail investors and Bitcoin's kind of stuck in the mud, right? So I wonder if we're starting to start to see more and more revenue as it relates to stablecoins and what that means. And you could say that's a largely institutional sort of thing, but you know, Coinbase, I'd probably rather buy Bitcoin than by Coinbase. It just kind of like, it seems like it's more of a potential asymmetric sort of payout.
Melissa Lee
Would you rather buy Coinbase over Bitcoin or neither?
Carter Brax
Well, so as patterns go, each is a pair of twos from my seat, which is to say don't play or bet very small directionally, however, you're biased.
Melissa Lee
Let's now get to Julia Borson who's got the latest on Roku's results. That stock lower after hours, Julia?
Courtney Garcia
Yeah. Roku shares are off their post market lows, but they're still down about 7% on the company's streaming hours. Falling short. Sorry, now down about 6%. And the company's streaming hours falling short of expectations. Streaming hours for the quarter, 36.5 billion. Now that's more than a billion less than analysts had expected. Roku's revenue was in line with expectations and EPS beat with the company's first quarter with positive operating income since 2021. CEO Anthony Wood saying on the call that they're confident in their ability to grow ad demand. He also said they're testing a redesign.
Melissa Lee
Of their home screen to drive engagement.
Courtney Garcia
And he noted that their Amazon partnership is just starting to ra up, saying they're focused on opening up a whole new category of advertisers. He revealed that 90% of advertisers on Roku's Ad Manager platform were new this quarter.
Melissa Lee
Melissa didn't helpership numbers yeah. Meantime, we're also getting news from Netflix about a stock split. Julia?
Courtney Garcia
Yes, Netflix doing a 10 for 1 stock split and the company is saying that though it doesn't change anything fundamentally, this is all about making the the stock more accessible to employees who participate in the stock, the stock option program. Our markets editor Robert Hum points out.
Melissa Lee
That this could make Netflix a potential.
Courtney Garcia
Dow component, which is an interesting item here. The stock is up over 3%. And just in terms of the timing, this is for shareholders as of November 10, receiving nine additional shares for each one they hold on November 14. And then the stock begins trading at its new post split Price on Monday, November 17th.
Melissa Lee
Melissa all right, Julia, thanks. Julia Boorstin Guy, your pick, Roku or Netflix?
Dan Nathan
Roku. Real quick, you are on the verge of a bearish to bullish reversal in Roku. Carter can probably speak to this. Obviously this doesn't help it, but I still think we're on the precipice of that number one in terms of Netflix. This to me, they're playing to the stock market now and remember we talked about when you stop when, when growth starts to wane, you start doing things that maybe you shouldn't do. We talked about the potential of Warner Brothers discovery the other day and how that was concerning. Now you're hearing about stock splits. So I hear that and doesn't make me as optimistic as I think it should or makes a lot of other.
Melissa Lee
So the stock split is falls into the category of a desperate deal.
Dan Nathan
I mean they could have done a stock split at any point over the last few years and they're choosing to do it now in the wake of a stock that's been underperforming now for quite some time in the wake of that headline that they denied. But it's out there. So I'm a little, I'm a little leery here.
Melissa Lee
Are you skeptical of Netflix?
Courtney Garcia
Well, actually the same thing came to mind when I saw that, I mean it doesn't actually do anything like fundamentally to change the stock. Right. You're just going to have more shares. But it does allow more like retail investors to get in now that the share price is lower as an entry point. So I see that as a grab for additional investors more than anything. So why do they need to do that? I think that's the question.
Guy Adami
Cynical guy.
Dan Nathan
I'm not.
Guy Adami
I mean, it's a, it's trading 1100 bucks. Let the people have it at whatever. What, you do math? Well, what would it be if it's ten to one?
Dan Nathan
Oh, it's a ten. You got to listen.
Guy Adami
It did seven to one ten years ago. Now they're doing ten.
Dan Nathan
What she said.
Guy Adami
Listen to everything Julia said.
Dan Nathan
She was yawning before. She was tired of a long day.
Melissa Lee
For Julia, it is a long day.
Dan Nathan
No, I'm not.
Guy Adami
I will tell you that.
Melissa Lee
Someone who.
Guy Adami
Mel, you know this. You did options action for how many years?
Melissa Lee
Oh, so many.
Guy Adami
And Carter did too with me.
Melissa Lee
Yes.
Guy Adami
You know, it actually is much easier to trade options on like $100 stock than it is on thousand. So all the options brokers out there like, yeah, let's do it.
Melissa Lee
Yes, exactly.
Carter Brax
Let the people have it.
Guy Adami
Yeah, have at it, people. We haven't done options act in that long.
Melissa Lee
Coming up, details on the Apple and Amazon call. Gene Munster joins us next to lay out what he is hearing and where he sees the tech giants heading next. You're watching Fast Money live in the NASDAQ marketsite in Times Square. Back right after this. This episode is brought to you by Progressive Commercial Insurance.
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Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. We are getting some headlines from Amazon's call. Let's get back to Mackenzie Segalis. Mac.
Courtney Garcia
Hey Mel. So we just heard from CFO Brian Olsavski saying that they expect their full year capex to be approximately $125 billion. They say it's set to go higher in 2026. Now that's primarily going to us to support AI demand. They also talked about investing more in their in house AI chips called Trainium that does trail Microsoft's run rate for an annual capex spend of $140 billion. But Andy Jassy, the CEO, talking right now on the call about Project Rainier. That is their big investment. They're working hand in hand with Anthropic. Back to you. I'll keep listening and let you know if there's anything else coming up.
Melissa Lee
All right, Mac, thanks. Mackenzie Segalos. Let's get more on what we've been hearing from Amazon and Apple. Fast Money friend Gene Munster. Deepwater Asset Management joins us now. Gene, great to have you with us. And you've been on both of the calls. I don't know how you do it, but from Apple specifically, you're saying that they're, they're being a lot more specific about things, which is a good sign.
Gene Munster
Yeah, Melissa, if we go back to 2019, that's the last time they would give like really detailed iPhone guidance. And then of course during the pandemic they pulled that and then they kind of started to slowly give more guidance, but not to the product level detail. And here we are, they're giving more guidance part maybe because they've got more to talk about. They're more excited to talk about double digit growth. If you look at the iPhone, for example, over the June and the September quarter and then you take their guidance for December, it's going to average to about 10% growth. Now that compares to the iPhone being down over the previous two years, an average of 0.5% per quarter. And so I think yes, we're seeing more color and maybe from them just feeling that they want to tell a story because things are getting better. I guess it's neither here nor there. What matters is they're okay being more on the hook. I think it is a sign that they're feeling more confident about their business.
Melissa Lee
For Amazon, Jean, you know, it's up 14, 15% after hours. Is that justified?
Gene Munster
I don't know if that kind of move is justified. I think the piece that really is surprising people is that they talked about this backlog, the CapEx side, just to kind of put a, I think it's important because that's an A topic. But the capex piece, they did mention the numbers, to put it in perspective, is about 6% higher than what the street had been thinking before. So that was the guide up in capex. But as far as kind of that move, it's in part because of that backlog comment that their backlog is bigger for the December quarter than the revenue was in the September quarter. Of course, December is their big quarter, so that kind of makes sense. But that is really a bullish sign. I think the Street's probably going to shake out to something in the order of 20, 21% EWS growth for the December quarter. And I think that that's what's driving it. The simple takeaway is that I think Amazon has not performed that well. We're seeing a little bit of a recovery here. The results were solid, the outlook is solid. But I think that in its totality there's better companies. I think Apple's going to significantly outperform Amazon from tomorrow morning wherever they open to the end of the year.
Guy Adami
Wow, I like that.
Melissa Lee
What, the call?
Guy Adami
Yeah, it's bold call Gene, really quickly. So Amazon right now, if it opens here, it's going to gain what, $200 billion dollars in market cap. And you know, you talk about this anthropic relationship all the time. A guy that I know is a brilliant tech investor, Josh Wolfe at Lux, I think the other day he said if I was a betting man, I'd bet that Amazon eventually owns Anthropic. Are we going to see m and a 200 billion plus? Okay, we just heard open air, some reporting that they are targeting $1 trillion IPO at some point in the future. The numbers are getting kind of staggering. Do you see think we will say any of these big incumbents make acquisitions like that in the private markets?
Gene Munster
I think the field is going to see on a scale 1 to 10, the desire for Amazon to pay $200 billion or something like anthropic is high. It's a 10 out of 10. I think they have to do that. They've got to add some substance to what they're building around as and create some unique products that even pull in more AWS revenue. Google, Gemini with and Azure has been successful at that. The one piece of course is will the regulatory environment allow that big of a deal? I don't know the answer to that, but I do know that if you look around the table, there's not that many seats that have these large language models. You have anthropic you have Grok, you have GPT with OpenAI. So they're going to be highly sought after assets. And my sense is we're going to see some pretty profound M and A over the next couple of years.
Melissa Lee
Just going back to Apple quickly, does it matter about the mix of the 17 phone, whether it be Air or others, I mean with this quarter, does that put that concern to rest?
Gene Munster
It doesn't. I think just I want to kind of anchor the whole conversation around, you know, the mix, the, the guidance, the, the bigger picture, what's going on here. They talked about their number of active users increasing, which it should every quarter was. The last number they gave was 2.35 billion. That's the devices. That's about a billion and a half users. And what we have seen, and this is what makes Apple special, is that when people get Apple products they talk about half of the new Mac and iPad and wearables users. Half of those products sold are to new customers. When they buy an Apple product they buy of course buy more products, they buy services. We've seen the resilience in that. And so I sometimes get caught up in kind of the details, the numbers in the guide and missed kind of the bigger picture and the bigger picture is no one builds products that connect as well together as Apple. And this rising tide, that base is just getting bigger and bigger and eventually here's the big unlock is around what's going on. My optimism about why the stocks can do so well is investors are going to get excited about what's coming with Apple intelligence. The new Siri yes, it's been a debacle but that's okay because no one else has stepped in competitively and I think you're going to see the multiples expand measurably in the months to come.
Melissa Lee
All right, Jean, thanks. We'll check back in with you a little bit later on. There's news. Gene Munster, Deepwater Asset Management It's a good point. The bar is set so, so low when it comes to Apple intelligence. So anything is upside, anything is upside.
Dan Nathan
But the bar is also again Dan said it earlier, valuation clear doesn't matter this environment at when it does start to matter again at this 34 times with their earnings and revenue growth if people start to look now again what Apple wins to and there have been a bunch of articles over the last couple of weeks about passive investing when you are 400 something ETFs of which you the top 15 holding you into that in a major way.
Melissa Lee
Coming up, gold pulling back from recent records. And the chartmaster says there could be even more metal moves ahead where he sees the Safe Haven trade heading next and fast money return returns. We're getting some more information from Apple's call. Steve Kovacs got the details. Steve.
Steve Kovac
Hey there, Mel. Yeah, just a little bit coming out of the call from CFO Kevin park about the tariff impact here for the December quarter. They're expecting that hit to be $1.4 billion, all while margins will still remain between 47% and 48%. We saw that in the September quarter how they were really able to keep margins strong while absorbing those tariff costs. And I'll also note that Tim Cook told me when I spoke to him about an hour ago that no price increases in the iPhone were due to tariffs. So you really do see Apple absorbing a lot of those costs but clearly not preventing them from giving that really strong guidance. You see shares still reacting to that, up three and a half percent. Mel.
Melissa Lee
Steve. Thanks. Steve Kovac. Meantime, another check on how stocks close out the day. Major indices down today. The Dow, Dow down more than 100 points. The S&P falling 1%. The tech heavy NASDAQ leading the losses dropping more than one and a half percent. And some more after hours action. Reddit, Gilead and Western Digital all beating expectations on the top and the bottom lines. Western digital also hiking Q2, EPS and revenue guidance. That stock is up almost 9%. Zillow meantime is higher by three and a quarter percent. And gold notch a small gain today, but the yellow metal still more than 8% off its record highs. And Carter says he sees more pain ahead for the Safe Haven trade.
Carter Brax
Yeah, so we know how popular it became and we know how vicious the sell off was. But let's look at a couple charts and try to figure it out together. So this is an unadorned chart. Let's put some lines in there. What we have is a of course second iteration, a break in trend, fairly elemental. We are down 11% from the peak. A little bit of a rally. Next iteration you can name patterns the original book writers did in the 30s and 40s. People would call this a head and shoulders top, call it whatever you want, it's a reversal. And then finally where does it project to? You'll see what they call the neckline. It's all a bit kitsch as they said, but they were desperate to get people to believe in what they were doing. There were no computers. If and as you break this neckline and that's what's I believe it projects Plenty lower. So resist the temptation by my work to buy the dip in gold.
Melissa Lee
What do you think is plenty lower, Carter?
Carter Brax
Well there's something called a measured move. It gets a bit esoteric but we're down from 4400 ounce. Let's call it 4000. That's a 400 an ounce move. If you project lower by that amount it takes you to 3600 an ounce. And interestingly that's exactly where the 150 day move moving average comes into play. Gold has not been in touch with its 150 day moving average for almost two years. Check backs are normal.
Melissa Lee
Do you agree with Carter's adorned charts?
Dan Nathan
Well listen, you know me now for a long time, everything Carter says, I nod my head and I hope he's not right. But it appears as though he might be. I'll say this, the mining stocks have bounced in a pretty significant way over the last week or so. Maybe that's short lived but his point about 3,600. The question is how do we get there? And if he's right, if you get the measured move, is it on the back of an equity market sell off which gold is not impervious to?
Courtney Garcia
And gold is now up over 50% year to date. I mean even with this pullback which is its best performance in over half a decade, half a century, I'm sorry, which is just wild and I think at a certain point you're going to see that come back to mean reversion. So gold is something want to own more is just a hedge and a diversifier. But yeah, I would not be chasing this year. I completely agree with Carter.
Melissa Lee
Coming up, all the moves out of the pharma space, the details behind Eli Lilly's blowout quarter and a new offer from an upstart weight loss drug maker. Don't go anywhere. Fast money is back in to more headlines out of Amazon's conference call this time on the recent job cuts. Mackenzie Sagal got the details Mac.
Courtney Garcia
Hey Mel. So Amazon CEO Andy Jassy addressing those layoffs startups announced this week saying that the 14,000 job cuts are driven by culture and not by financials or AI. He again got into that narrative of hollowing out those layers of middle management. He says that that weakens ownership of people actually doing the work and that they're committed to operating like the world's largest startup.
Melissa Lee
Mel back. Thanks Mackenzie. Seagallos, let's get to Eli Lilly here. Surging almost 4% today after a beat and raise earnings report thanks to booming demand for its GLP1 drug, Zeppelin and Manjaro. Also in obesity. Obesity. Novo Nordisk down 2 1/2% after confirming that it has made an unsolicited bid to acquire Med Sarah. Better than the offer that Pfizer had made last month. Semaphore reporting this afternoon that Pfizer is considering a lawsuit against Novo and medcera over the bid. For more on all of this, Mizuho health care strategist Jared Holz is here on set. Jared, great to have you with us.
Steve Kovac
Thank you.
Melissa Lee
What did you make of the strength out of Eli Lilly? Given a lot of the Manjaro driver came from outside the the United States.
Steve Kovac
Yeah, a good quarter in total. Didn't really think it needed to be nitpicked that much. It's nice to see international grow a little bit. I think part of the problem with Manjaro and Zeppelin here is that this prescription data is so widely available makes it difficult to beat those numbers because the analysts keep on changing them and they become, you know, more easy to predict. Guidance raised by 2 billion, only two months to go in the year. Seems like they're pretty confident. So I think all in, pretty good for Pfizer.
Melissa Lee
For Pfizer. In terms of Novo Nordisk now stepping in, what did you make? I mean, it's so out of character for Novo Nordisk and to go against. I mean, how do you interpret it? Is it desperation? Is it just being aggressive because they know they have to turn the business around? Combination of all.
Steve Kovac
Well, I wrote this morning that I thought it was desperate, so I'll stick with that. I think there's like a little bit of desperation across the board, you could say. Right. Because it's so clear that Pfizer has missed the boat for now and that Novo Nordisk's pipeline has taken hits. We've discussed it so many times this year. It's a very, very interesting deal to kind of consider within the context of pharma. You typically don't see overbidding. I don't remember the last time it's happened. And then in this structure, like a lot of the riskarb community today, they have not seen a structure like this where you're basically circumventing ftc. And, like, there's a lot of legalities involved in this. But when you go back to the Pfizer Metsera deal, there were five other bidders from Metsera. Metsera chose not to take Novo's deal because they didn't. I think they believed that a deal wouldn't go through and now they're coming back because they think it might. So it's very confusing. Not really sure what happens from here, but yes, a little bit desperate on Novo's part, but yes, new board, new management. There's actually a board member that is supposed to join Novo, a former head of R and D at Pfizer. So there could be some, you know, interplay there that makes this pretty intriguing.
Melissa Lee
Is there going to be a rush to get this deal sort of accepted or worked on because Monsera has some key readouts. December, January timeframe. I mean, is there going to be a rush to get it before those readouts happen and push the stock even higher?
Steve Kovac
I would think so. I think as a buyer, you want to kind of. You want the asset before those catalysts read out.
Dan Nathan
If you're positive bipartisan is big cap pharma. And you're going to hear politicians. Eli Lilly did $17 billion of revenue. Manjaro and Zeppelin were $10 billion. They're making money hand over fist. Are they going to be a victim of their own success in the political landscape?
Steve Kovac
I think they've already been a victim in part. Like the administration has talked about drug pricing, they've singled out. The GLP is being this massive class that they have to sort of control. You're seeing what companies are doing bringing back manufacturing to kind of offset some of that risk. So, yeah, for sure. I mean, the biggest drug class, at the same time, prices have come down 50% within a year. So they started around 1,1200amonth. They're now running 4 to 500. So, yes, for sure.
Melissa Lee
Seeing that there's such a race for Medcera, what are the other ones to put on the board at this point?
Steve Kovac
I mean, I think you go back to structure, which, you know, I think there's probably some value on that for that Amolin alone, which goes into the clinic, I think next month or two months from now. And then Viking is still around, although I think the gating factor for them has been more in the manufacturing that you can buy the asset. But then you have to continue to heavily invest behind the infrastructure and things like that. Where met, Sarah? I believe the strategics Large cap pharma believe that's an easier lift, but Viking is still out there.
Melissa Lee
Jared, good to see you. Thank you.
Steve Kovac
You too.
Melissa Lee
Here at Holes coming up, a bump for burgers, but a burrito blowout. To the downside, the moves in Shake Shack, Chipotle, Sweetgreen and Kava and whether the dining divergence will continue. You more Fast Money into. Welcome back to Fast Money. Big moves in restaurant stocks. Chipotle dropping more than 18%. Excuse me. Its worst day since 2012 after the burrito chain lowered its sales forecast last night, saying younger diners are cutting back the warning hitting other restaurant names as well. Sweetgreen down nearly 10%. Kava and Wingstop both falling 11%. But Shake Shack did manage a gain today after it topped EPS and revenue estimates estimates this morning. Shares up as much as 6% but closing well off the highs. What do you think, Court?
Courtney Garcia
I think what's really interesting is what they're saying about the consumer. So specifically the younger consumer. I think that they singled out who's making less than 100,000 is really pulling back. And Chipotle believes that there's. They're not going to competitors. They're actually just eating at home. So I think what you're going to see is you're going to start to see really those value propositions come back in here where they're really trying to tow how much of a value they are because even Chipotle came out and they were saying, oh, well, you can still get chipotle for like $10. But like, who's actually getting that? I mean, the last time you've gotten there, like if you're not getting anything on it, like maybe got like beans.
Melissa Lee
Or something, get it for $10.
Dan Nathan
Hold on a second.
Melissa Lee
What?
Dan Nathan
So, okay, can I do this? I wanted Chipotle last night. My daughter ordered on the phone. She knows no beans. They bring it. The driver brings it to the house. They knock on the door. I answer the door. I opened my tin foil wrap, I.
Melissa Lee
Take a bite of it all beans.
Dan Nathan
There were fricking beans in there.
Melissa Lee
Even I know no beans.
Dan Nathan
And that really infuriated me. You know what I did? I cursed and then I threw it in fricking garbage.
Melissa Lee
That's such a waste.
Guy Adami
Who's going to eat it?
Dan Nathan
Who's going to eat it?
Melissa Lee
What did the charts say? Carter, quickly.
Carter Brax
Well, this group has been under pressure. I mean, remember the relative performance of The S&P 500 restaurant sub industry group is at its 2009 lows relative to the S and P. And then you've got things like Wendy's and Cracker Bar that just keep getting worse. I mean, it's bad. And I would stay away.
Steve Kovac
All right?
Melissa Lee
And do not miss Jim Cramer's exclusive interview with Shake Shack CEO at the top of the hour on Mad Money. No beams there. Up next, final trade. Final trade time.
Carter Brax
Carter Braxworth Coal miners still vulnerable GDX.
Courtney Garcia
I'm a seller Courtney and the energy space here. Look at O was one of the sectors up today. I think it still looks good for.
Guy Adami
The year Dan you know Mac and sf. She surrounded the Amazon trade her mom Rebel Huge fast money fan by the way. Pretty cool Netflix here guy.
Dan Nathan
You know the people at CMG watching this so the one in Morse Plains?
Melissa Lee
You're blaming the CMG people?
Dan Nathan
Damn straight on blame. Wasn't me Lily all right eqt.
Melissa Lee
Thanks for watching Fast Mad Money Start right now.
Courtney Garcia
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Melissa Lee
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Episode Title: More Big Tech Results… And Dissecting The Latest Pharma Moves
Air Date: October 30, 2025
Host: Melissa Lee
Panel: Carter Brax, Courtney Garcia, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami
Special Guests: Steve Kovac (CNBC), Mackenzie Segalos (CNBC), Gene Munster (Deepwater Asset Management), Jared Holz (Mizuho Healthcare Strategist)
This episode was packed with major earnings reactions and sector updates. The Fast Money team dove into blockbuster tech results from Apple and Amazon, analyzed surprises in cloud and hardware growth, scrutinized a major stock split at Netflix, and tracked the fallout from Meta’s hefty Capex plans. The back half focused on pharma shakeups, restaurant stock routs, and technical signals across gold and equities.
[01:04–17:48]
[24:07–26:43]
[22:18–22:52]
[23:13–24:07]
[28:13–34:18]
[36:37–38:35]
[39:20–43:43]
[44:29–45:48]
[18:53–19:46]
| Segment/Theme | Start | End | |---------------------------------------------------------------|-----------|-----------| | Show open, preview, ads | [00:00] | [01:04] | | Apple earnings analysis, Steve Kovac live | [01:04] | [09:50] | | Amazon earnings analysis, Mackenzie Segalos live | [09:50] | [14:49] | | Meta, market commentary, mega-cap tech context | [15:12] | [17:48] | | Market technicals, S&P and Nasdaq run | [18:53] | [19:46] | | Coinbase/Roku/Netflix/Stock split debate | [22:18] | [26:43] | | Amazon/Apple calls, Gene Munster interview | [28:13] | [34:18] | | Gold charting/technical outlook | [36:37] | [38:35] | | Pharma: Eli Lilly, Novo’s MedSarah bid, GLP-1 race, panel | [39:20] | [43:43] | | Restaurants: Chipotle, Sweetgreen, Shake Shack, Kava | [44:29] | [45:48] | | Final trades | [46:05] | [46:35] |
The Fast Money panel maintained its trademark mix of actionable analysis, spirited debate, and banter. Critical takes on company strategies and valuation were balanced by clear explanations of what’s driving stock moves. When discussing megacap tech, pharma, and “consumer barometers” like Chipotle, the group also tied results back to broader macro and sector themes.
This was a crucial earnings episode with real-time market moves. The panel emphasized that, even after AI-driven breakouts, investors need to stay grounded in valuation and technicals. The mega-cap tech stocks remain central to the market’s fate, but there are big divergences under the hood, both in cloud computing and consumer spending proxies. Restaurant stocks, gold, and pharma deals paint a mixed, mosaic-like picture requiring sharp analysis and clear-eyed skepticism.
Key actionable takeaway: