
Netflix on the move as the streaming giant reports results. The headlines from its second-quarter conference call, and what a top media analyst sees in store for the stock. Plus GE pops after reporting, a rough prognosis for Elevance Health, and the crypto regulation bills creep through Congress. What it means for Bitcoin’s record run, and the path forward for stablecoins. Fast Money Disclaimer
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Melissa Lee
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At 699.99@dell.com AI PC how those ahead Stay ahead. Live in the NASDAQ marketsite in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Netflix gets chilled. The streamer beating top and bottom line estimates giving better than expected guidance, but shares the down just about a percent after hours, why investors were not impressed and where the stock goes from here. And not one, not two, but three closely watched crypto bills passing their house votes this afternoon, what it means for regulation in the industry and for Bitcoin's record run. Plus, GE Aerospace pulls back after hitting a 25 year high, Elevance gets unelevated on a guidance cut and why one of our traders thinks the Fed shakeup could mean a rally in Treasuries. I'm Melissa Lee, come to you live from Studio B at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Karen Feiderman, Dan Nathan, Gaia Dami and Carter Braxton Wirth. We start off with Netflix's earnings beat, the streaming giant also posting better than expected user numbers and raising its full year guidance. Despite that, the stock is trading off by just about 9. 10 of a percent. The earnings call underway. CNBC's Julia Borson's got the very latest. Julia hey Melissa. Netflix kicking off the call that CFO saying that they are seeing momentum in ad sales on pace to double ad revenue year over year. Also saying that content expenses will increase in the third and fourth quarter of this year and that the back half will have one of the biggest slates of movies they've ever had. Co CEO Ted Sarandos just ran through a very long list of shows, but despite those higher production and marketing costs, they say they will still be growing margins this year. Co CEO Greg Peters said when asked about the health of the consumer that they believe demand will remain strong. And while the company no longer discloses subscriber numbers. They did say that their member growth was ahead of forecast and Peters disclosed that total viewing hours did grow in the first half of the year despite the fact that their new releases prices are weighted waited to be released in the second half of the year. And just worth noting here, the company did raise its revenue forecast, which a number of analysts were hoping for, saying that the majority of the increase reflects the recent depreciation of the US Dollar with a balance attributable to continued business momentum driven by solid member growth and ad sales. And of course, Melissa, we're listening for any more specific details about the ad revenue beyond just the doubling year over year. Specifically, I'd like to know how many members are choosing the ad supported plan, but I'm going to jump back on the call which is happening right now. All right, Julia, thank you. Julia Boorstin it is interesting what they note about the boost in revenue mostly due to the weakness in the US dollar. So you look through currency swings that revenue would not have changed in terms of guidance.
Gaia Dami
Right. And so the bigger, bigger revenue beat was in the United States. Right. But you know, the expectations were so high.
Dan Nathan
Yeah.
Gaia Dami
So high. So this is. They delivered. Right. If you, if you had just told them last quarter this is what they're going to put in next quarter and this is the number that would be very good. So I, I think it's just the burden of expectations being really, really high. We know it's a very high multiple. Clearly they are the best in class there. So I'm, I'm pleased with this. I always want to wait to hear the conference call. There's so much nuance there potentially. You know, we want to hear about live sports. We want to hear will the content sound like Julia was getting to that and ads of course. But so far I'm pleased given the run up that it's had, I think this was very good and certainly good enough.
Dan Nathan
They also say that they're noting nothing significant in terms of metrics. Like if there was any kind of swing because of consumer sentiment, they're watching that very closely. They did see an uptick at the end of the second quarter, which is good news. But the stock is off an all time high just at the end of June. So to Karen's point, in terms of here it is, they delivered and the stock's just off a percent. That's not bad.
Karen Feiderman
Shouldn't be surprising. Yeah, I don't think it's bad at all. I actually think it's pretty good. And, you know, high bar, I think they sort of got over a high bar. Margin improvement is staggering, in my opinion. I think it's upside down. 600 basis points year over year. And the operating revenue, revenue growth is I think, up 16% year over year. And this is coming off some probably, you know, difficult comps in the first place. So valuation is obviously a concern. It's always been a concern. I mean, there's no other company out there. So I don't think you run too far from Netflix here. I get in the conference call, we'll see what happens. But I think this was a fine quarter.
Rich Greenfield
Yeah. You know, a lot of folks are saying into this year, okay, so they're not going to give us those subscriber numbers. That's something that obviously has caused a lot of volatility in the stock over the last, I mean, as long as we've been talking about it, you know, in streaming world and that they've been in over the last decade or so, you know, I think about the advertising and I know that's something that we talked about with Amazon over the last, call it five years or so we talk about. This is just kind of pure margin, if you think about it. If it's something that is not particularly intrusive and that's been good for them, it's only 7% though, of their total revenue. So if you think about where the direction that could go, that could be very additive to those margins, and especially when you're trying to offset maybe some of those increased content costs. We don't know what they're going to do with live sports, but that's also going to add another layer of that advertising. And I'll just say, you know, the last thing we're going to see lots of digital models that are going to be contending with generative AI or these chat bots. And it's really going to come at a lot of these kind of search advertising sort of models. And that's one of the real issues, I guess, with Google. It's not one that has been evident so far and Google has been telling us that it's not evident. That's one of the reasons why I think a lot of folks are anticipating, you know, something on that front when they report in a week and a half or so. But this is something that should benefit Netflix. It should not be that controversial for them.
Gaia Dami
So for, I mean, the few things we talk about, how they know what you like this, so you might like that and how amazingly good they are, and then Knowing what you like and then creating content that fits that. And so that, that is something that they're way ahead. But also I think that the cost of content creation. Right. We're early into that given how much content they create. I think that's, that's potential for additional margin. And then on the flip side, the live, the live program is expensive. I mean, you know, there's a land grab now for sports, so. But putting it all together, I mean, what an extraordinary job they've done.
Dan Nathan
Yeah. Carter, what do you see in the charts here for Netflix? You mentioned the all time high was just June 30, so not too long ago.
Carter Braxton Wirth
Right. So as Karen implied, I mean obviously a lot was baked in and it's a non event. If you look at the last 40 quarters going back 10 years, the average move is about 9 and a half percent and here we are moving 1%. So having bounced some 55% off its April low versus the Q is up 3940. A lot was priced in and it turns out to be a non event, which is to say Netflix belongs right around here.
Dan Nathan
All right. Right around here. So fully priced. Karen, how does that make you feel in terms of valuation which is always for a long time for you on this one, right?
Gaia Dami
It makes me feel a little bit good. I did put on some colors. They got a little lucky covering my calls at an okay price and putting on some colors. But I mean it's expensive and it's worth it, right?
Karen Feiderman
That's right. No, go ahead.
Dan Nathan
No, I was going to point out international programming, which is interesting in terms of content, which is typically cheaper to acquire. Right. And, and as opposed to, and to make right in other countries that its content is resonating with all users. One third of all Netflix viewing in the first half there was international programming. So even users here are finding what they like from international, which I mean.
Karen Feiderman
Think about this story five years ago. I mean we were not having that conversation. So they're, you know, they're, they're iterating. That's a Dan word that Dan uses and they're doing it really well and they're doing it more efficiently as well in terms of the, it's just a great run company. I mean the only if there is a knock, it's what Karen just said, it's a valuation. It's really hard to get your arms around. But you know, that's been true for quite some time and there have been downdrafts in Netflix, there have been some missteps without Question. But, you know, outside of two or three things over the last six or seven years, they've done everything exactly right.
Rich Greenfield
I mean, you guys remember 2022. I mean, stocks sold up 70% from its 21 highs. And I just think that's something we could broaden out a little bit to the rest of the NASDAQ here. I think people have very short memories if they don't remember that Tesla, Nvidia, Netflix, and Meta, they all sold off 70%. I'm not saying there's anything out there right now. Clearly in the macro, everything's kind of gotten a bit complacent here. And there's nothing that would lead you to believe that anything in this business model is going to cause some sort of. Back then they had a lot of. I mean, there was a lot of volatility around.
Gaia Dami
There was concern subscriber growth had peaked in that they. Right.
Dan Nathan
They had a lot of debt. I mean.
Gaia Dami
Yes. And that story is gone now. That subscriber growth since has been enormous in the balance sheet.
Karen Feiderman
Yeah.
Rich Greenfield
But I think investors might start looking at names like Spotify. They might looking at growth rates and they might say to themselves, okay, this is a different bucket of media and there's different costs associated with it. And here's something where, you know, there's ads on Podcast Guy. You have a podcast, you know, like, you know how that works and everything like that.
Dan Nathan
Everybody here has a podcast except me.
Melissa Lee
Well, you've been on all of our podcasts.
Julia Boorstin
You know what I mean?
Rich Greenfield
You were one of our first guests. You were my very first. Yeah. Well, there you go. Maybe we'll ask you back at some point. If you're nice to us, maybe we'll go on together. Well, that would be amazing.
Dan Nathan
Podcast, which exists already.
Melissa Lee
Yeah, Tim.
Gaia Dami
Anyway, I do have one.
Dan Nathan
Anywho, why do you mention this 70% sell off in 2022 in the context of our Netflix conversation? If you're saying that it may not happen here, like, what was you on here? Yes.
Rich Greenfield
Please be nice or you're not going to come back on the podcast. I just want to be really clear about this. Well, I think that in 2021, I think things felt really good for this company. Things felt really good for a lot of companies. Right. And so none of it was kind of anticipating the potential for a recession or a bear market or anything like that. And so, you know, I just think that this is a time where you want to start thinking about what could go wrong, not what could go. Right, Right. And so Spotify is One that's interesting to me. They've diversified, I think, away from that core business model that they had. They're going to benefit from advertising, they're going to benefit from generative AI. You're going to start seeing companies like this reduce their headcount. And that's something that it used to be back in 2022, like, oh, that business is so crap they got to cut people.
Dan Nathan
Hasn't Netflix done the same diversified advertising channel?
Rich Greenfield
Yeah, but what I'm saying is Spotify is growing 2x that of Netflix. So are yourself.
Dan Nathan
Would you rather.
Rich Greenfield
Yeah, a little bit.
Karen Feiderman
Nice job.
Dan Nathan
Want to cut to the chase here.
Rich Greenfield
Sorry about that.
Karen Feiderman
That spot over Netflix, I was going to say quickly. I mean, if there's an existential risk, it comes in the form of some downturn, a significant downturn here in the United States, because the only. And they've talked about this, the competition that Netflix has is sleep, which is a. You know, that's it. Yeah. I mean, think about that for a second.
Dan Nathan
I do get sleep because of that.
Gaia Dami
YouTube would say the competition is in fact you. Which is.
Dan Nathan
Right.
Gaia Dami
More right. Is yes. Front of Netflix. I do think you're right that a very significant economic downturn is bad for Netflix, but it is better for Netflix relative to a lot of other players.
Dan Nathan
Yes. Yes, it is. Much utility. Like that's the last thing you asking.
Gaia Dami
You're going to give.
Rich Greenfield
It took us 10 minutes to actually mention YouTube in this conversation. And that's really important. So all of these kind of bear cases about search revenue as it relates to, you know, Google. Everybody comes back to YouTube. It's absolutely destroying. It's become a real competitor over the last five years to Netflix. And so I think that's something really important. Important because that's something they're going to continue to hear them lean on because some of the pressure on their ad models as it relates to search will not be the same thing as it relates to YouTube.
Dan Nathan
Right. Much more on Netflix later on in the show. Meantime, Nasdaq and S and P both hitting records today, even as tensions over the Fed continuing to rise. Former Governor Kevin Warsh, seen as one of the president's top picks to replace Jerome Powell, calling for sweeping changes to the central bank's relationship with the U.S. treasury. Here's what he told Squawk Box this morning.
Melissa Lee
So if we have a new accord, then the Fed treasury, the Fed chair and the Treasury Secretary can describe the markets plainly and with deliberation. This is our objective for the size.
Dan Nathan
Of the Fed's balance sheet.
Melissa Lee
The treasury can say this is our issuing calendar and by the end of, let's say this administration will be at an equilibrium rate on the balance sheet so that markets will know what is coming. None of this should be rushed.
Dan Nathan
Okay, so what would a Fed chair mean for the markets? Conventional wisdom right now is that there'd be a lot of hand wringing over the independence of the Fed. The fact that that is threatened because President Trump has effectively forced out Jay Powell putting in his own pick to lower rates and that that would cause a sell off in Treasuries. Karen and so I'm just wondering like what how you start to think about this. We played this clip specifically because he mentions this accord that happened in 1951, a Fed treasury accord where they coordinated their actions in order to manage the treasury market or their treasury holdings.
Gaia Dami
Well, yesterday you weren't on. Yes, we missed you a lot. You know, we like the babysitters, but. Yeah, but so Andy Khansen was on and had what I thought was a very unusual, interesting take, which is that a lot of things everyone else, you know, you would have inflation and you would have the dollar going down and markets could go up or bitcoin up, but that the long end of the yield curve would actually be OK because they would decrease substantially the amount of long end curve supply and so therefore be more, more Treasuries. Right. More bills and that that would keep rates lower and actually keep the able to pay off the deficit quicker. I don't know how long that can stay in homeostasis. Maybe a long time, I'm not sure. But that was interesting to me that, I mean that that is exactly what you were talking about. Right?
Dan Nathan
Yeah.
Gaia Dami
Working hand in hand.
Dan Nathan
Right. If they were for a different purpose though.
Melissa Lee
Right.
Gaia Dami
The Fed's mandate now is a dual mandate of price stability and employment. Right. This would be somewhat of a different mandate, which is a part of what he's saying. Right. The they have to, the Fed has to evolve as an end. Right.
Dan Nathan
So cut rates, lower the on the short end and then manage the long end. Oh, it's perfect.
Karen Feiderman
Well, I mean Japan tried to do similar stuff and you know, this is one of those things that works until it doesn't. And I'm not trying to be cute, I mean it's just factually true. I mean Janet Yellen, if you think about it, during her tenure at treasury was funding with bills. I mean, and now you can play that game as long as the market lets you, but if the back end starts to get away from you. At some point you got to pay the piper. So I do think, by the way, I think Kevin is right. The treasury and the Fed probably should be more aligned with one another. I just don't know if that's sustainable to try to do at the short end in perpetuity.
Dan Nathan
Yeah.
Rich Greenfield
And I think more aligned works in different administrations, which is tough. Right. We see what's going on with power right now. You know, the president said, well, you know, Biden, who appointed him, you know, I wouldn't have kept him around. Well, actually we know he appointed him. Right. And so, you know, views about different economies, different situations, different debt loads, different deficit spending, different competitive or comparative rates and growth rates and all that sort of stuff that's going to change year to year. And you want to somebody, I mean pals done a really nice job. If you think about what he came into in 2018 and where he is right now and what happened in the middle with COVID And we're doing okay here, man. Like the economy is still doing okay. The stock market's at all time highs. Yeah, you can say deficits and debts and all that sort of stuff. But everybody we have come on here, other than Ray Dalio, you know what I mean, is telling us that's okay, just keep kicking the can down the road. So I listen to war and I say to myself, here's a steady hand. I think this is a guy between his experience on the Fed, his experience in the White House in the arts and that sort of thing, I think he'd be a good choice. Kevin Hassett, on the other hand, other hand, he seems very political and he seems like the exact wrong person you would want, especially if you want an independent Fed. Now that doesn't mean you can't have some coordination, but it can't be outright political pressure. That would be the thing that I think would keep I think a lot of market participants, at least macro ones, on the edge of their chairs worried about what happens in the next crisis that we have.
Dan Nathan
Right. Well, you know, it is worth noting that the 10 year treasury yield has been very tame and within a very steady range. Even with all of this sort of concern about Fed independence and President Trump ousting Jay Powell, etc. And the dollar has been strengthening, which is worth noting as well. In fact, the dollar index hitting another it moved higher today, hitting its best level since mid June. This is on track to be the best month for the US dollar in 2025. Carter, just on Monday you had a note out saying the greenback is going to break out. Where are we on that forecast now? It's really panning out.
Carter Braxton Wirth
A little bit of good timing. We might have some charts here. We can try to figure it out together. But yes, a bit of a bounce this week and my hunch is there's more to go in terms of what you said, one of the biggest moves of the year but it's had such a massive sell off. So several charts. Here's the first with no lines or drawings, no judgments. Let's look at the next same time frame and what we know is this is going back some 10, 15 years. We're down to a well defined multi year uptrend line. How precise? Next chart depicts it. We've come down to the penny and we bounced. So that is the first circumstance. But if we look at it the here and now next chart we'll show you how the levels matter. We've gone from 110 to 96. That level where we bounce 96 if we can remember those two numbers. And then look at the more here and now chart and you'll see that this is what's happened. That 110 to 96. We've moved above that downtrend line. So that's a very important development. It would be considered developmental price action. Now the question is how high? I have no idea. But I do think that one can from time to time play for an oversold bounce. We are getting that bounce and I think for now continue with the trade. It's likely to go higher.
Karen Feiderman
Yeah, I mean Carter, again, prescient is the word I will use. He will say luck. There is no luck in his work. And he's right. I mean you're getting a bounce here and maybe justifiably so maybe there's some relief rally going on. I will tell you that we have seen bounces in the dollar over the last six months. They've all been rather short lived. And if you want to cues if it's sustainable, I think it'll come in the form of the gold market. If gold starts to give it up, which it has not. Gold's hanging in there. So I think the gold market is telling you this is just an oversold bounce in the dollar.
Dan Nathan
All right, coming up, we've got much more Netflix ahead. But also an Earnings jump for GE Aerospace. The stock hitting its highest level in 25 years before retreating as investors poured over the numbers. The details from the quarter next and a rough prognosis for Elevance Health shares hitting more than four year lows after its earnings report. Why? One of our traders is closing the books on this one ahead. Do not go anywhere Fast money is back in two.
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Dan Nathan
Welcome back to Fast Money, a rollercoaster day for GE Aerospace shares hitting a 25 year high in early trade after beating earnings estimates and boosting full year. Guidance before the bell but ending the day down more than 2%. Phillipe spoke with CEO Larry Culp this morning and has all the numbers. Hey Phil.
Melissa Lee
Hey Melissa. When you look at the second quarter for GE Aerospace, you couldn't ask for anything more if you were an investor. We're not going to go through all the numbers, but we're going to let you know that yeah, they beat the street on the top of the bottom line by a wide margin. On the top line or on the bottom line should say beat by 23 cents. But this says it all right here. Commercial engines orders up 28% year over year, revenue up 30%. Look at deliveries up 45%. Look, 45% is amazing any time you have that. But remember this was not like they had a bad quarter last year. It was a strong second quarter. This speaks to the success that they're having in terms of driving greater efficiency, driving greater production. In terms of free cash flow. They did raise their guidance both for this year and then they put a target out there for 28. For this year they're going up to 6.5 to 6.9 billion from 6.3 to 6.8. And the target for 2028 is 8.5 billion in free cash flow. Here's Larry Culp talking with us on Squawkbox about why they believe they can get to 8.5 billion with respect to 28. We think we are going to be able to grow at a double digit rate. Now we're targeting 11.5 billion of operating profit. That should allow us to drive earnings at a mid teens level and that should drive $8.5 billion of free cash flow. I love this chart and hopefully we have this here. This is GE Aerospace against the S&P 500 over the last three years. No comparison at all between the last three years for the S&P versus GE Aerospace. One other note, Melissa, they did raise their guidance for all of 25 in terms of earnings per share, 560 to 580 from 510 to 545. Bottom line, it was essentially a blowout quarter. Doubled free cash flow. Doubled it in the quarter compared to last year. Strong performance by GE Aerospace.
Dan Nathan
Amazing numbers here. Phil, I'm wondering is this all in spite of the tariff situation? Partly because of the tariff situation and.
Melissa Lee
Pull forward of orders, not pull forward of orders. I think this is more driving greater efficiency, greater production. That's been a big part of what GE Aerospace and Larry Culpin and working on over the last three years, putting some of their leadership out with some of their key suppliers, critical suppliers, to drive greater efficiency. Part of what they call their flight deck plan. So I think that's part of where the numbers, the metrics for the second quarter come in terms of tariffs. We talked about that this morning. They are optimistic, like many in the aerospace industry, that the 1979 agreement, the International agreement where you do not have tariffs across borders because of the nature of the industry that that will ultimately hold with the Trump administration. Now I should point out, Melissa, nobody is going to say, yeah, that's exactly what the Trump administration is going to do because nobody's quite sure within the aerospace industry. But that is their hope at this point.
Dan Nathan
All right, Phil, thank you Phil. LeBeau, Carter, it's some chart there that Phil showed. Where does it go from Here.
Carter Braxton Wirth
Yeah, it is some chart and those are incredible. This is. Here's an equally incredible. The stock peaked in August of 2000 and we're not back to that peak. So that comparative chart that is very Incredible on a three year basis is actually the following. GE is down on a 25 year basis versus the S& P which is up multiples. And so the question is, what's the story? Is this going to falter at its all time high? So again going back to 2000, the S&P is up about 3.54x and GE is down said differently adjusted for inflation. Since its peak, General Electric has lost half its value despite this huge run. It just shows how when you get into a bind, it takes a long time to get out of it.
Gaia Dami
Carter, it's Karen. That's kind of extraordinary. Does that include all the spins? You put the whole thing together. How do you think about it when.
Carter Braxton Wirth
You look at current shares? Not the spin off or the other shares, that's the current GE shares adjusted for all the things that have happened.
Dan Nathan
But of course there's Nova, there's health care. Yeah, all the pieces here.
Karen Feiderman
Well, I mean if Tim was here he would. He's been talking about it for a while. It's been a. Carter's right in historic terms. But just look at what's done over the last few years. Larry Culp is a genius. I mean if you want to go back and look at management from Danaher, I mean it's pretty remarkable what those folks have done. And here's some numbers for you. 75% of global commercial jets have GE parts. 70% of their revenue is services business which enables them to get the multiple they get. And I think 2/3 of all defense companies have GE parts and stuff. So it's a remarkable story. I think. I think it's expensive, I think it's up against resistance, but you don't want to run too far away.
Gaia Dami
I hope there's a good read through for the B and Tim's Boeing that his mother talked about.
Dan Nathan
Band carved or the Axe, not the.
Gaia Dami
B in your tube, isn't it?
Karen Feiderman
No, my tube has other things in it.
Dan Nathan
Yeah, you can't put everything in the tube.
Karen Feiderman
No, of course not.
Dan Nathan
There's a lot more fast money to come here. That's coming up next.
Rich Greenfield
An out of pocket plunge. The news sending shares of Elevance Health sharply lower and how one trader is playing the move.
Melissa Lee
Plus crypto moving through Congress.
Rich Greenfield
Three policy bills making the rounds in D.C. tonight. What it means for Bitcoin's record run.
Melissa Lee
And the next move for stablecoins.
Rich Greenfield
You're watching fast Money live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.
Dan Nathan
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We know what's comfy and now you do, too. Keep it quilted with quilted Northern. Welcome back to Fast Money, a buzzkill on Ella Vance, a health insurer, the worst performer in the S&P 500 today, dropping 12%, its lowest level since February 2021. The company posting disappointing earnings before the bell and slashing guidance for the year, citing higher costs of Medicaid in the Affordable Care Act. Molina and Suntin falling in sympathy, both names heavily weighted to Medicaid. And it's like the story happens again and again and again and the stocks take dive after dive after dive.
Gaia Dami
Yes, I saw this this morning. I'm like, you know what? I am done. So I sold this. I did a very, very poor job here in protecting a, you know, a gain, a long term gain, not wanting to realize gains, which is super stupid and interesting to me. Came down again on the same news over and over. Sometimes you feel like you reach a bottom when things stop going down on basically the same news. But this didn't. And also just for my own sanity of, I don't want to look at this anymore. You know, there's nothing that says I can't get back in. I know that I won't just because, you know, it's a scar that I don't really want to address again. But I really did a poor job here. And I don't. It's really cheap maybe. I mean, you know, also I do think my selling it today does give a lot of hope that this is the bottom. Exactly. So. But that's where I am with it. I really did A bad job?
Karen Feiderman
Yeah, I mean, they cut the guidance to $30 from about 34 and a half dollars or so. So I mean, obviously people are saying, you know, what the valuation is, what it is, but they continue to cut. You can't just look at that. But there's going to be a point to get back in this. I think it's around 250. If the crack staff and EC can put up a chart, you will see that this is where we sort of took off from back in 2020. So there's going to be a level for this stock where this bad news is completely discounted. You get another round of bad news that the stock actually rallies on the back of. And I think it's going to come in a form of that level down there.
Dan Nathan
Carter, what do you think? 250.
Carter Braxton Wirth
Oh, it's just a mess across the board from UNH to CNC. Now at some point the, the word cheap comes to mind, but that's a very hard word to define, just as the word expensive is. And so if one is going to speculate in a stock that's in a pretty aggressive downtrend, go small.
Dan Nathan
Coming up, the next move for crypto, a trio of regulation bills coming to a vote in Washington. What will they mean for bitcoin's record run and will other tokens follow suit? Fast money's back into the We've got a news alert. Fed Chair Powell responding to the OMB director about the renovation of the Fed. Megan Casella's got the details here. Megan.
Julia Boorstin
Melissa, that's right. Remember rest of our wrote to Chair Powell just exactly a week ago on July 10th asking for his responses to a series of questions about the renovation. The questions were things like whether this project was proceeding in accordance to plan, whether they had changed the original plan. Powell in this letter, it's about a three responding with bullet points to each of these questions. He says he emphasizes I should say this was a plan that was first approved by the board in 2017, has been approved every year since as part of the budget. He says both buildings were in need of significant structural repairs, including the removal of asbestos and lead contamination. That's something the Fed says has led part of what has led to a higher cost than they had originally planned. And he also talks about how they've been working closely with the National Capital Planning Commission. He says he voluntarily collaborated with the NCP even though the Fed doesn't necessarily have to do that. And crucially, he says the project is proceeding in accordance with that plan. The small number of design changes that have been made. Powell says we're to scale back or eliminate certain elements. They've added no new elements and he said the only changes were intended to simplify construction and reduce the likelihood of further delays and cost increases. That's likely to be key here as OMB has said that. Why aren't they working with the ncpc or have they changed that plan, that they might need to resubmit a new plan if there have been substantial changes? MELISSA the rest of this just goes through. He's sort of downplaying all of the features on the building as Republicans have seized on them. He says green roofs are common on government buildings, including doj. The interior says there's no VIP dining rooms, no VIP elevators. Now we will wait to see how OMB responds to this letter.
Dan Nathan
Melissa that's right. I mean, on the Fed website they already addressed a lot of the questions laid out by Mr. Vote. I mean specifically, as you said, no VIP dining. It wasn't just in this letter. It was also on the Fed website for the past week or so and it still hasn't quieted anybody in terms of criticism.
Julia Boorstin
That's exactly right. He actually references in the letter that they have put all this on the website. The Fed is clearly taking every step here to be as transparent as they can, putting things online, asking for an independent review of all of this, now putting this letter out publicly and sending it even before the deadline that OMB set for them to send it. So they're really trying to get ahead of this, right? That it hasn't quieted anything just yet. But it shows how they're participating in this and then we'll see if they're what OMB does as the next step, really. I'll also flag that the National Capital Planning Commission that is involved in this now, the president has just appointed his own former personal lawyer and now staff secretary to lead that commission. So maybe we see more enrollment involvement, I should say, with the ncpc, but it's also working hand in hand with the Trump administration as well.
Dan Nathan
All right, Megan, thank you. Megan casella, it's like a soap opera as the World Turns. This is the latest development in this whole effort to investigate Powell and create a reason to get rid of him.
Karen Feiderman
That's exactly we were looking for. Cause I mean, if you listen to some people, it sounds like he's rebuilding Versailles. And if you listen to them, these were much needed renovations. Obviously, the truth is always somewhere in the middle. But you know, we talked about it last night. It Took less than a billion dollars to basically renovate Notre Dame. I mean they're not spending. I'm hard pressed to believe two and a half billion dollars is a number. I even know if that's the point. However, this is just my view. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. Markets at all time highs job market is okay. You know, brow beating the Fed in submission here. I don't think it's the best course of action.
Gaia Dami
It's kind of amazing how inured we've gotten to the idea of the Fed chair being removed by the President.
Dan Nathan
Right. That we can. Everything is tame.
Gaia Dami
Yes.
Dan Nathan
Dollars, okay.
Gaia Dami
Treasury, you know, 16 and a half last doesn't really matter. Maybe it's the belief. It's not really going to happen.
Dan Nathan
Right. Meantime, the House passing three separate crypto bills this afternoon. The Genius act, which will regulate stablecoins, moves to President Trump's desk. The Clarity act, which defines market structure for the assets and the anti central bank digital currency bill now head to the Senate for a final vote. The news comes even after the bills faced a series of hurdles this week. Week cryptocurrencies have been rallying this month ahead of the votes ether of more than 35% in July. For more on the next steps for the industry, Kristen Smith joins us now. She's the president of the Solana Policy Institute. Kristen, great to have you with us. I believe, according to the notes, that you think the Genius act is going to be the most important for the crypto industry. Why is that?
Julia Boorstin
Yeah, well, I think that the first two bills you mentioned, the Genius act and the Clarity act, are both incredibly important for the crypto industry. What's really exciting about the Genius act is that bill now goes to the President's desk. So this is the first time that we have a new regulatory framework for part of the crypto industry getting signed into law. The President is hosting a signing ceremony at the White House tomorrow. And so by the end of the week, the Genius act will be the law of the land. The Clarity act is also incredibly important that now moves on to the Senate. But I think what's really remarkable, and I was actually up in the Capitol up in the gallery watching the votes earlier today, is both of these votes got a tremendous amount of bipartisan support. The Clarity act had 294 positive votes and there were 308 for the Genius Act. So this is about as bipartisan as an issue gets. And I think it shows that Americans love crypto and they're excited that Washington is Responding and putting the framework in place.
Dan Nathan
We're just showing a graphic with your predictions in terms of how much this industry, which is currently 250 billion stablecoins, that is 250 billion, will grow to 2 trillion in the next few years. Chris and does that incorporate. Does that assume the GENIUS act becomes. Did that assume, I should say, the Genius act becomes law, or is there an additional expansion because of the passage of this?
Julia Boorstin
Well, we've seen tremendous growth in stablecoins over the past four or five years, despite having a fairly hostile regulatory environment. A lot of that has been overseas seas. So I think that these predictions, and these aren't my predictions, as I got from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant is the one who, who made this prediction of the $2 trillion market by 2028. You know, this is. The framework is in place and this allows traditional finance, traditional payments companies to look at stablecoin solutions as they're upgrading their financial infrastructure. So I think it's a tremendous opportunity. We've seen some of the big banks are interested in this, the payments companies are interested in this. And so, so I think now that this rule is in place, this law is in place, or will be as of tomorrow afternoon, I think that it's really off to the races for the markets, competitive companies to do their jobs. And I think it's a real opportunity and one that ultimately will benefit businesses and consumers alike.
Dan Nathan
How much alike? And I'm just wondering because it seems like the first use case, as one would imagine, for state stablecoin is for. Is for trade in some way. I mean, it'll. It's faster, it'll be immediately settled. There's no sort of overhang. And so that seems like the obvious use case in terms of consumers. Are we going to be creating all these different ecosystems where every retailer, every business has their own stablecoin and that's how you transact. Well, you know, very inconvenient.
Julia Boorstin
Yeah, no, I think that's the big question. I mean, obviously having interoperability is very good. You know, there are a couple of major issuers of stablecoins that are issued on multiple different chains, including Solana. And so I think, you know, how the marketplace plays out is sort of beyond my level of prediction. But what I know is that, you know, blockchains like Solana, for example, are very fast financial rails. And what we can do is when you put these assets on there, you can trade, as you mentioned, and, you know, you could send money around the world. You can settle trades instantly. There are A lot of benefits to it. And I think it'll be really interesting to see the way different companies incorporate this. But I think for the end user and consumer, they want something easy and convenient. And so I think those solutions that meet what the consumer wants are going to be those that, that that are the most successful.
Dan Nathan
Kristen, great to see you. Thank you.
Julia Boorstin
Thanks, Melissa.
Dan Nathan
What do you think, Karen?
Gaia Dami
I'm curious of the impact on banks. Banks, right. I mean you could make a lot of cases for and against it being good for banks. But I mean, I think it's going to be happening. I think it's going to be probably a pretty quick adoption.
Dan Nathan
Yeah.
Gaia Dami
Yeah.
Dan Nathan
Carter, on the charts, everybody's wondering how high does it go? Bitcoin. Yeah.
Carter Braxton Wirth
I mean you've just now, as all will know, broken out from a well defined range and typically after a big pause like that and then strength that gets you out of a range, you have room to run. Ethereum, of course, is in many ways the more interesting, there's more beta, if you will. And it is playing catch up to Bitcoin has been the real sort of story of the past six, seven, eight weeks. And I would say one is right to belong both but with Ethereum being the better bet here for the more aggressive trader.
Dan Nathan
All right, coming up, we're keeping an eye on Netflix now trading near after hours lows down about 2%. All the headlines from the streamer's earnings call and what a top media analyst thinks about the quarter Fast Money's back into. Welcome back to Fast Money. Another check on Netflix. The stock down 1.8% in extended trading even after the streaming giant reported earnings beat and hiked. Guidance. Rich Greenfield is partner and analyst at LightShed Partners. He's fresh from the earnings call which wrapped up this hour. Rich, your initial take on this on this quarter and the guidance.
Melissa Lee
Well, it's funny, Melissa, you know, I've been coming on talking to you, you know, sort of post Netflix earnings for years now and like we used to talk about like 10 to 15% moves, you know, the reality is, you know, a couple percent, you know, if you look at sort of the performance of this stock year to date, this is a pretty muted reaction, I'd say overall this is generally as expected. There was nothing terribly surprising in the quarter. And I think maybe the one, if you think about like what surprises me in terms of the reaction is just if you think about the amount of content they have coming, you know, they definitely focus people on the contents late this year is very much back Half weighted. You could see they had a real spike in subscribers at the end of the quarter that they talked to, led by Squid Games, which had their final season. But that's really the beginning of a much, much bigger, you know, content slate over the course of the next six months that culminates, actually, if you think about it sort of at the very end of the year with the final season of Stranger Things. And so there's a lot of content coming that, you know, historically, engagement and great content has been the driver of what has driven both subscribers and the overall growth story at Netflix. And I think you'll start to see that play out. This was a relatively weaker first half in terms of content and in terms of just overall. So, again, I think muted reaction in the stock today. What really matters, though, is revenue growth, and the revenue growth of 15% in the US and faster constant currency in every other market that Netflix operates is what I think is really why this stock has performed this year and why it continues to perform.
Karen Feiderman
Yeah, I agree, Rich. So you can, with all the numbers they do give you, they no longer give subscriber growth, but with all these numbers, you could probably back of the envelope the thing and figure it out. Have you done that exercise? And if so, is it sort of in line with what you would be thinking?
Melissa Lee
I mean, look, they're continuing. When you're growing revenue in the US alone at 15% and you're raising price, you're certainly getting, you know, continued solid subscriber growth. It's not like subscribers aren't growing. They're no longer breaking it out. And look, there's a lot of pieces. There's advertising that's doubling year over year. They now charge for an incremental member, if you have a member that's outside of your household. So, like, there's a lot of moving pieces to sort of understand all the mechanics. But there is no doubt that subscribers are seeing nice growth year over year. And I think, look, they showed that, I think overall time spent viewing in the first half of the year was up in, you know, 1 2%. You know, if you kind of back out subscriber growth. You know, they talked about the fact that engagement per member is down, you know, upper single digits. And so, you know, there's, you know, you're seeing very solid subscriber growth. They are not having trouble growing subscribers. I think now with more subscribers, the question and what I think is going to be the key driver of this stock over the next year, with more subscribers continuing to come onto the platform can they give them more to do? So they watch more. Because you watch more, you can charge them more. Like that's how this whole model runs. Especially now that you have advertising. You need more engagement and that's what they're focused on.
Dan Nathan
Right. Rich, great to get your take. Thank you. Thanks for having Greenfield LightShed partners as Richard mentioned, very back half load in terms of the content slate, which could be a great thing for right. Being retaining, growing engagement, etc.
Gaia Dami
Right. I mean they're doing everything right. Just it's odd to have, you know, so much built in the hype. I guess if you had shorted a straddle, you would have a very good trade tonight because in the end the street sort of got it right. Exactly. They did an outstanding job. High bar. They met it.
Dan Nathan
Coming up, why more analysts are getting bitter on Starbucks and whether shares can turn things around. Down from here. More fast Money into Welcome back to Fast Money. Call the day on Starbucks downgraded to underperform at Jefferies, the firm saying there are no clear signs that fundamentals are improving for the coffee chain and that the value of its China business may be less than estimated. Analysts giving Starbucks a $76 price target that's 80, 18% lower than today's close. They said things like traffic patterns, credit card data, all of that indicate that they're not going to do well when it comes to posting their sales comps for the quarter.
Karen Feiderman
I actually agree with that. When, when you had the announcement of the new CEO, I think the stock was 73. It proceeded to trade north of 100 and 115 or so over the next couple of months, which made zero sense to me. And I still think this move lower has some legs. Valuation is still rich. I think they have problems that are more than one or two quarters to be able to fix then listen, they might have the right person in the seat, but this is a long term problem that's going to take a lot of time to sort of sort out. And you know, I don't think there's. I think they're still behind the curve in my opinion.
Dan Nathan
Carter, your take on as bucks.
Carter Braxton Wirth
Yes, sloppy. I would note that there was no price change in the target. So while it was downgraded from old to sell, the $76 price target existed prior to the judgment today and now it still exists. So I'm quite sure how to interpret that. But as to the chart, it's messy. It's the definition of poor relative performance to the consumer, discretionary sector to the market overall and so in general something to stay away from.
Dan Nathan
And you have a trade on Starbucks.
Rich Greenfield
Well, I think it is the guy stuff that he mentioned here is like the volatility over the last year has had to do with management has to do with changing, you know, sort of strategy and the like. And that's going to take a while to figure it out. I think the Jefferies analyst is probably doing that going to the sidelines. So to me it's a no touch.
Dan Nathan
Up next, final trades, final trade time.
Carter Braxton Wirth
Carter American International Group AIG for a bounce.
Dan Nathan
Karen yes.
Gaia Dami
So from my acronym also from Tim's acronym and and his mother also recommended as well Boeing. I particularly like it on ge. I still think we are early in the turnaround.
Rich Greenfield
Dan yeah, I like the B in your tube.
Dan Nathan
Is it Baidu?
Karen Feiderman
Baidu.
Dan Nathan
Oh, close enough.
Rich Greenfield
I like Baidu. Here I like Baidu.
Karen Feiderman
I'm so happy I think I can speak for all of us. We're so happy you're back.
Dan Nathan
Melissa Freeport McMorin, thank you for watching FAST. See you on Squawk tomorrow. Mad Money starts now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer@ Capella University, learning the right skills could make a difference. That's why our business programs teach you relevant skills you can take from the courseroom to the workplace. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at Capella Eduardo.
CNBC's "Fast Money" Episode Summary: "Netflix Reports Earnings… And Crypto’s Next Move As Bills Pass Through Congress" (July 17, 2025)
Hosted by Melissa Lee alongside CNBC’s top traders Karen Feiderman, Dan Nathan, Gaia Dami, and Carter Braxton Wirth, this episode of "Fast Money" delves deep into the latest financial developments affecting investors. From Netflix's earnings performance to significant moves in the cryptocurrency landscape and insights into major corporate earnings, the panel provides a comprehensive analysis of the market's current state.
Melissa Lee sets the stage by outlining the key topics of the episode:
Earnings Overview: Netflix reported better-than-expected earnings, surpassing both revenue and subscriber growth forecasts. The company also raised its full-year guidance, signaling confidence in future performance.
Guidance and Investor Reaction: Despite the positive earnings report, Netflix shares declined by approximately 1% in after-hours trading.
Executive Insights:
Analyst Perspectives:
Market Analysis: Dan Nathan pointed out that Netflix's stock remained close to its recent all-time high, suggesting that positive outcomes were already priced in.
Key Takeaways:
Legislative Developments: Three significant crypto bills passed their House votes:
Implications for the Crypto Market: The passage of these bills signals a move towards clearer regulatory frameworks, which could bolster investor confidence and stabilize the market.
Guest Insight:
Market Reaction: Cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, rallied over 35% in July following the legislative developments, indicating positive investor sentiment.
Key Takeaways:
Current Developments: Former Governor Kevin Warsh advocates for a renewed accord between the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury, aiming to provide clearer market guidance on the Fed's balance sheet and the Treasury's issuing calendar.
Implications for the Market:
Panel Discussion:
Technical Insights:
Key Takeaways:
Earnings Overview: GE Aerospace achieved its best performance in 25 years, exceeding earnings estimates and raising full-year guidance. However, the stock retreated by over 2% post-release.
Executive Insights:
Analyst Perspectives:
Market Analysis: Despite the impressive quarterly performance, historical comparisons reveal GE Aerospace still trails significantly behind broader market indices, indicating long-term challenges.
Key Takeaways:
Earnings Overview: Elevance Health experienced a sharp decline, with shares dropping 12% to their lowest level since February 2021 after the company posted disappointing earnings and slashed full-year guidance.
Challenges Faced:
Panel Discussion:
Strategic Insights:
Key Takeaways:
Analyst Rating Change: Jefferies downgraded Starbucks to "Underperform" with a new price target of $76, representing an 80.18% decrease from its current close.
Reasons for Downgrade:
Panel Discussion:
Market Analysis: The downgrade reflects broader concerns about consumer discretionary spending and Starbucks' ability to navigate international markets effectively.
Key Takeaways:
The "Fast Money" episode provides a multifaceted analysis of current market movements, emphasizing the interplay between corporate earnings, regulatory developments, and macroeconomic factors. Key highlights include Netflix's solid performance amidst high expectations, pivotal cryptocurrency legislation poised to reshape the digital asset landscape, and significant movements in sectors like aerospace and healthcare. Additionally, concerns around Federal Reserve independence and strategic challenges for major brands like Starbucks offer investors critical insights for navigating the evolving financial terrain.
Notable Quotes:
This comprehensive summary captures the essence of CNBC's "Fast Money" episode, providing valuable insights for investors and stakeholders keen on understanding the current market dynamics.