CNBC "Fast Money" — Episode Summary

Episode: Next Market Catalyst… And Rounding Up Retail Results
Air Date: August 28, 2025
Host: Brian Sullivan (in for Melissa Lee)
Panel: Guy Adami, Steve Grasso, Dan Nathan
Special Guests: Joe Cusick (Calamos Investments), Angelica Peebles (CNBC), Courtney Reagan (CNBC), Christina Partsinevelos (CNBC), Mackenzie Sigalos (CNBC)

Episode Overview

This episode centers on the relentless bullishness in U.S. equity markets, the factors driving all-time highs in the S&P 500, and the search for the next market catalyst in the wake of Nvidia’s earnings and the latest Fed signals. The panel also dissects key retail earnings reports, weighs the fallout from political and regulatory drama at the CDC and Federal Reserve, and provides actionable insights in sectors ranging from technology to consumer discretionary and electric vehicles.

1. All-Time Highs and Next Market Catalyst

S&P 500 Passes 6,500 for the First Time (02:20)

• Backdrop:
  Stocks soar to new records as Nvidia’s bullish outlook stokes the AI rally; Jerome Powell signals a potential rate cut on the horizon.
• Panel Reaction:
  • Guy Adami: “You never short a dull market… but the things I’ve been concerned about — inflation, job data, rising global rates — have not gone away.” (03:03)
  • Dan Nathan: Large tech (“Mag 7” + Broadcom) are benefiting from a weak dollar, lower rates, and negligible tariff exposure, keeping the S&P 500 grinding higher. (03:43)
  • Steve Grasso: The market is “all about the Fed”—anticipating whether they’ll cut by 25 or 50bps; September through October tends to be weak but not apocalyptic. “It’s not a normal news cycle.” (04:25)

Notable Quote:
“Love them or hate them, President Trump is going to give us something in the next couple months...We really can’t be a boring market anymore.” — Steve Grasso (04:25)

2. Politics & Market Confidence: CDC and Fed Drama

Uncertainty at Top U.S. Institutions (06:15, 16:17)

• CDC Shakeup:
  • Deputy HHS Secretary Jim O’Neill reportedly named acting CDC director amidst legal protests from outgoing director Susan Menarez. “So theoretically right now there are two heads of the CDC.” — Brian Sullivan (07:04)
  • Reflects ongoing administration turmoil, contributing to market’s “yellow flag” environment.
• Fed Independence Under Fire:
  • Reporter Steve Liesman: Fed Governor Lisa Cook sues to block her firing by President Trump, arguing only “cause” can justify removal—a critical issue for Fed independence (16:30).
  • Guy Adami: Warns that eroding confidence in institutional independence could spike bond yields: “If you start to have any concern about the independence of a Federal Reserve...they could demand a higher rate of interest to [buy U.S. bonds].” (08:14)

Notable Quote:
“The entire structure is built on confidence. And if you start to have any concern about the independence of a Federal Reserve…people could demand a higher rate of interest.” — Guy Adami (08:14)

3. Market Complacency, Volatility, and Options

The VIX Remains Low Despite Growing Uncertainty (09:06, 13:58)

• Joe Cusick (Calamos Investments):
  Market unphased by Fed/CDC drama. “This level of complacency…is a little bit of a yellow flag at this point in time.” (11:04)
  • Institutional investors are actively hedging; retail traders entering with put spreads, signaling growing caution not reflected in broad volatility measures.
• Dan Nathan:
  “It’s really cheap to buy protection...If you want to make a bearish bet using options on the SPY…it costs you 1.25% of the underlying. That’s absolutely insane.” (13:58)
  • Warns that while protection is cheap, overhedging erodes returns; now may be a strategic time to buy puts.
  • Noted an unusual skew: calls more expensive than puts, “speaking to a bit of a euphoric market.” (20:08)
• Guy Adami:
  “Gold market is clearly telling a much different story…It should be selling off if equities have done better…” (15:30)

4. Tech & AI — Earnings and Exposure

Dell:

• Slight earnings stumble on guidance miss; bullish on AI servers (08:52)
  • Christina Partsinevelos: “They are shipping double the amount of AI servers this year — $20 billion.” (22:08)
  • Long-term cyclicality remains a risk due to heavy PC exposure and razor-thin margins (23:53).
  • “It's not that it's not a good company, it's just that that valuation might be a bit...a sort of red herring to me.” — Guy Adami (23:57)

Snowflake:

• Shares surge 20% after beating estimates; “Broadened” AI trade “trying to find new ways to express it” (27:31)
  • “If you’ve enjoyed this run, in my opinion, you’re taking money off the table.” — Guy Adami (28:41)

AI Cycle Broadening:

• Investors look to software names like Salesforce, exploring how AI productivity gains play through earnings (28:09).

5. Retail Roundup: Navigating Tariffs and Shifting Consumer Trends

• Gap: Misses revenue and same-store sales, forecasts worsening operating income hit from tariffs ($150-175M drag) (33:59)

  • Inventory up 9% YoY with flat sales indicates margin contraction to continue.
  • “Stay away from Gap; TJ Maxx, Ross Stores are the names you want to buy.” — Steve Grasso (36:05)

• Best Buy:

  • Tariff impacts muted in blended price results; “Just trying to help the White House understand what we’re seeing.” (34:45)

• Affirm:

  • Beats top and bottom line; surging point-of-sale card business, AI initiatives boost volume (38:41).
  • “In store spend [with Affirm card] growing 187% and active cardholders almost doubling.” — Mackenzie Sigalos (38:41)
  • CEO touts 5% lift in volume for merchants using new AI system. (39:33)

6. Gambling and Gaming:

• Wynn Resorts:
  Upgraded to “Buy” by UBS; bullish on Macau and the developing UAE luxury casino set to open in 2027 (29:32).
  • “Despite the move, there’s room to the upside … Wynn continues to go higher from here.” — Guy Adami (30:12)
  • Contrast with MGM: More conservative, better valuation, but lacks Wynn’s luxury focus and UAE exposure (30:36)

7. Electric Vehicles & Tesla v. BYD in Europe

• Tesla’s Challenges:
  • European EV sales fell 40% YoY, while BYD jumped 225% (41:58)
  • “BYD is demolishing Tesla as far as market share … giving away full self-driving … I think [Tesla’s] best days are behind them in EVs.” — Dan Nathan (42:05)
• Subsidy Deadline Looms (Sept 30):
  Could spur buying, but bullish Tesla investors are betting on “Optimus” (robot) and AI, not auto unit alone (42:47)
  • “Every time you write off Elon Musk, he's got more lives than a cat.” — Steve Grasso (43:23)
  • Technical resistance at $357/share; needs a close above to retake momentum (43:23)

8. Quick Hits & Market Moves

• Pure Storage: Up 32% after earnings beat (32:57)
• Hormel: Falls 13% on weak guidance and higher input costs (32:57)
• Other Action: Elastic, Ulta, Autodesk, Marvell discussed for earnings performance and sector context (32:57)

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• “You never short a dull market and this is what we are…But the things I’ve been concerned about have not gone away.” — Guy Adami (03:03)
• “The S&P 5 is simply a collected measure of future estimates for earnings and earnings estimates continue to go up at the bottom line. That’s what the stock market is.” — Steve Grasso (18:56)
• “Valuation makes zero sense. If you’ve enjoyed this run [in Snowflake], in my opinion, you’re taking money off the table.” — Guy Adami (28:41)
• “In store spend [with Affirm card] growing 187% and active cardholders almost doubling. And that’s key…this is the company’s big bet for driving greater usage overall.” — Mackenzie Sigalos (38:41)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Market Catalyst discussion and S&P 500 highs: 02:20 – 05:43
• CDC & Fed drama: 06:15 – 08:53, 16:17 – 17:56
• Low VIX and market complacency (with Joe Cusick): 09:06 – 11:57
• Options strategy & put/call skew: 13:58 – 20:47
• Dell results & AI hardware discussion: 21:45 – 26:59
• Snowflake earnings, the broadening AI trade: 27:28 – 29:05
• Wynn, MGM, and luxury casino strategy: 29:32 – 31:55
• Gap/retail earnings and tariff impacts: 33:59 – 38:06
• Affirm’s earnings and AI strategy: 38:41 – 40:52
• Tesla vs. BYD, EVs in Europe: 41:58 – 43:23

Final Trades (43:37)

• Steve Grasso: FuboTV — “Look at the chart. It’s been decimated. I think it’s got tremendous [potential].”
• Dan Nathan: SPY Puts — “I think SPY puts are a good buy here and they’re cheap.”
• Guy Adami: Salesforce (CRM)

Conclusions & Takeaways

• The market’s persistent rally is facing potential headwinds: seasonality, potential Fed action, and growing institutional/political uncertainty.
• Risk hedging is unusually cheap, yet broad market volatility remains subdued despite mounting yellow flags.
• Tech and AI remain dominant themes, but the panel urges caution on extended names—or the possibility of a sharp correction.
• Retail sector faces mounting pressure from tariffs and inventory imbalances; discount retailers seen as relative winners.
• Political developments at the CDC and Fed being largely shrugged off—potential for that to change quickly if investor confidence is shaken.

Overall Tone: Engaged, candid, and occasionally playful; roundtable format provides both actionable ideas and a nuanced read on market sentiment.