← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
Next Market Catalyst… And Rounding Up Retail Results 8/28/25
00:43:48
Stocks heading into the fall with Nvidia earnings in the books, and the Fed’s Jackson Hole conference in the rearview. So what’s the next catalyst that will move markets? Our traders debate what they see in store for stocks. Plus Gap reporting results, with other big names like Dick’s, Best Buy, and more delivering quarterly numbers. How the retail space is faring, and the names to watch. Fast Money Disclaimer
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Foreign.
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C
Market site right here in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. Here's what's ahead. Tonight on the big show, Nvidia earnings, they're in the books. Jackson Hole, it's in the rearview mirror. So what we'll be moving your money and the markets in the months ahead. Discuss and debate. Plus retail reporting gaps, numbers just crossing the wires, investors digesting details from Best Buy, Dick's Dollar General and more. We're going to round out retail trade. The latest from the Fed drama, Lisa Cook hearing tomorrow morning what we're expecting and why Wall street is suddenly seeing green on a big gambling name. Plus, EV competition in Europe getting legit. We're going to talk about that and much more. Hello everybody. I am Brian Sullivan in for Melissa Lee once again coming to you live for the NASDAQ Studio B. And on your desk tonight we've got Steven Grasso, Daniel Nathan and Gaetano is it Guy. What's the full name?
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D
Well, since you asked, my father was Gaetano Marino, but I was born in 1963 as you know. And parents didn't want to name their children ethnic names, so I'm just Guy Christopher. Listen, you brought it up.
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C
I mean, you asked a question.
- [02:18]
D
What am I going to say when you ask me a question?
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C
Say guy and it's a miracle that Guy Adami is not ethnic, which I love, guys. But we start with an all time high for the s and P500 as markets keep going up. The index crossing 6,500 for the first time ever. The move's all coming as Nvidia did not scare investors off with its earnings and guidance. The AI trade, in other words, keeps going. Yes, Nvidia did fall a tiny little bit today, but CEO Jensen Huang making bullish comments about the future of its business in China. So with the most important report of earnings season out of the way, Jerome Powell making people believe that a rate cut is just around the corner. Guy.
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D
Yes, sir.
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C
Adami, what is the next big catalyst for the stock market?
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D
Well, as Steve will tell you, you never short a dull market and this is what we are. He'll also tell you that in the quarter end, the way the trajectory has been suggests we're going to continue to go that way and obviously tomorrow being Friday into a long weekend that's we're looking at. So it's hard to derail the momentum. But with all that said, you just mentioned all the catalysts in the rearview, their catalysts looking us straight in the eye, coming in the form of inflation data, job data, things that can move the needle. And oh, by the way, global interest rates continue to go higher, which I don't think is bullish. So I understand it, I get it, why the market's going higher. People are very optimistic about things. But the things that I've been concerned about have not gone away.
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B
Yeah, you know it's interesting when you look at the faithful aid. So that's the Mag 7 solid plus broadcom, you know, the disproportionate amount of their sales comes from outside the U.S. so you think about the fact that dollar is making new multi week lows here. It's very, you know, it's off of 110, this is the Dixie trading 98 right now. And they don't have a whole heck of a lot of exposure from the tariff situation. Right. So if you think about these large names, let's call them the top 10 in the S&P 500, they're benefiting from a weak dollar, rates going lower and not having a lot of tariff impact. So if they're huge contributors to the performance of the S&P 500 but also from the earnings and the earnings growth, that could be a bit of the tailwind and one of the things that's kind of keeping the S and P kind of moving slightly higher almost every day.
- [04:26]
C
So Steve Grasso, what do you think in your mind your big brain will be the next catalyst for this market? The Fed reserve meeting. Right. So just a little, just a little thing. And you know, to Guy's point, you never short a dull market, you never sell a dull market. But when you look at seasonality, these are the weakest months of the year. September, historically August through October is the week, but not cataclysmic weakness. It's just maybe you don't want to invest around that time. Maybe you want to pick up some bargains. For me, I think it's all about the Fed. Are they going to cut 25 or they cut 50? I think that's the biggest thing now, love them or hate them, President Trump is going to give us something in the next couple of months. So they're not going to be double. There's going to be a headline, there's going to be another state. We get a headline every day. Exactly. So we really can't be a boring market anymore. And you have Lisa Cook, you have the Fed Reserve meeting a lot to keep us all busy. Yeah. And I do. It's not a normal news cycle. So I do wonder. We got breaking news in a second. I do wonder. Guy Adami going into a long holiday week and it used to be just take it off, relax. I don't know what this president, we're getting headlines out of the White House every day. He doesn't care. It's a Friday going into a three day weekend.
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D
No, he doesn't. And it's interesting. I'm glad you said that. Because he has now equity in the equity market. And what does that mean? With an S&P 500 at an all time high, he has some chips that he can play with. So if he wants to lower the boom on a holiday weekend in terms of tariffs or anything else, now's the time to do it, given where The S&P 500 is. Because he's trading from strength, not from weakness. And historically, if you go back and look when the market's at its highs is typically when he can ratchet up the rhetoric. So I wouldn't be surprised to see something over the weekend.
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C
I do have some breaking news. Got a news alert right now. Reports of a new CDC director, Angelica Peebles with that Angelica.
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A
Hey, Brian. The Washington Post is reporting that the White House has selected Deputy HHS Secretary Jim o' Neill as acting director of the cdc. Now we have reached out to HHS and we'll let you know if we can confirm that news right now. This is according to the Washington Post, citing people familiar with the situation. Remember just yesterday we heard the reports that the White House was was removing CDC Director Susan Minares from her position, which is still a little bit of a tricky situation where her lawyers are saying that she has not actually been legally removed from that job. The White House is saying that she's indeed out and apparently they have named her replacement. So much more to come on that story and we'll keep you posted with anything else we can share. Ryan.
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C
So just to be Angelica, just to be clear, so we have a purported firing of Susan Menarez yesterday. She says, no, no, I'm still in the job. But now the White House has reportedly named a new so theoretically right now there are two heads of the CDC or two people who are considered heads of the cdc.
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A
Theoretically, that is what's happening. But again, you know, the White House is saying that she is out and they have a new person in well, that's what the Washington Post is reporting. They have not confirmed that they do have a new head, but theoretically there are two. But again, you know, it's a little bit like the Lisa Cook situation where you have someone say, you know, I was fired. You know, the White House is saying that we're firing someone. That person saying, you can't fire me. So it's a little bit of a tricky situation. But last we heard, her lawyers are saying that she indeed has not been fired. But the White House is saying that they did go ahead and take that step.
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C
Wow. Getting real out there.
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A
Complicated.
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C
Yeah, it's complicated, but it's also not somebody says, I'm not fired. Angelica, thank you very much. The President says, here's the new head of the cdc. Susan Ara says, and this is by the way, this is going to happen at the Fed, you know, which is this is going to happen with the.
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D
Lisa Cook situation she was talking about. I think it is important. And again, listen, I'm not here to arbitrate guilt or innocence. I mean, that will hopefully be adjudicated in a court of law. But I will talk about is the impact I think it should be having to our bond market because the entire structure is built on confidence. And if you start to have any concern about the independence of a Federal Reserve, I'm not suggesting people won't buy our bonds anymore, but they could demand a higher rate of interest to do so. We're not seeing it at all. I want to be crystal clear. You mentioned it last night. The bond market doesn't seem to care. It should start carrying, in my opinion.
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C
And that would be a sell off of U.S. debt.
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D
I think that's a sell off in the bond market. I think that's interest rates going higher. I'm not suggesting battles comp we saw in early April when the bond market was melting down on one random Tuesday night. I don't think we can get to that point. But you get something close to that for sure.
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C
And to Guy's point, if you look up on the screen right now, we have, we've seen no effect of it. The market is not paying attention to it. The equity market is at all time highs. The treasury market is that the yields are not rallying. So the market seems to be treating it as if it's a non event. I get guys point, one day it won't be a non event, but right now it's a non event for the marketplace. Okay, so let's go back to what is an event for the marketplace. And by the way, we'll get more on this Lisa Cook situation in moments. But for more now on the record highs and the AI boom, let's bring in Joe Cusick. He is portfolio specialist at Calamos Investments, coming to us from one of my favorite places. Sibo. Tell everybody there Joe that we said hello. Love that place as well. Very quickly, I'm not going to ask you to dive into the politics of it, but are you surprised that all this brouhaha around the Fed is not impacting bonds or the markets? A little bit surprised, but no, because you've seen that we've had mispricing and volatility as far as the implied and what's actually realized. So you know, as an old options trader, this is basically what we expected. The market doesn't care and it hasn't and it's not and it's going to. It's steady as we go and that mispricing has been in place for a while. And the vix, the so called fear gauge volatility index, which really just sort of measures options pricing and spreads, that's not indicating any nervousness at all. But when the VIX is this low for this long, Joe, I guess I've got the old options trader sort of semi in me as well because that makes me nervous. Well, yeah, I mean, look, I saw some of my old buddies that I used to trade with down here, look, the spidey senses are up. This level of complacency I've been talking about it, you know, as a hedged equity strategist, you know, the bottom line is that we are concerned because navigating this complacency without any guardrails to the downside, it absolutely scares me. And institutions have to stay in this market. And retail, well, they're starting to feel like they might have to chase a little bit. So right now that complacency in the VIX is something that over time I have found throughout my career is a little Bit of a yellow flag at this point in time.
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D
Yeah, I agree with you Joe. And I think the market, market participants have realized that the sell offs don't last that long. Just go back to April, lasted maybe three or four days. And I think the game now is that you know what, we're going to continue to sort of full speed ahead, as you just said, because we'll be adept enough and quick enough to exit if in fact an event comes. And I think that's where the market is at this point. Of course, you know, having done this for a long time, markets go down a lot faster than they go up. And we saw glimpses of it in April. We haven't seen anything since. Anything on the horizon. Steve mentioned seasonality into September.
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C
Yeah, you know what it's look, I see some yellow flags coming up in the energy sector. I still see that the institutions are buying puts in mass. The skew has really come up and we've actually seen recently that put spread activity is really kicking up. So coming into September, while we've seen that the trajectory is still to the upside, we're at all time highs. You can't debate that. You're starting to see positioning that's continued with institutions hedging en masse and buying calls in lieu of buying underlying. And you're seeing retail now coming in and doing put spreads in things like the S&P 500, using hedged equity strategies and so forth. Because there is a lot of uncertainty that's starting to grow even though it's not reflected in volatility. So Joe, in your career and in my career, we've watched institutions run the market. Now we've seen retail lead in the market. How do you address what you look at? What are your signals now that retail investors are actually moving the ball, not institutions? Well, first of all, you're going to see that you're going to see a lot more speculative moves. In other words, you're going to see option volumes through the retail shops start to increase notably. And we're starting to see that it's starting with spreads and you know, we're going to continue to watch that. The other thing is too is that you're basically going to start to see that the transition into looking at the unloved stocks, the ones where it goes beyond means, but it's going into spaces that haven't had a lot of love and seeing that that's where the retail is going to show up. I think that the institutional side is fully vested at this point in time. We've seen that, we continue to see that. But that's where you're going to start to see this movement to more of a broad based move. That's where you know, retail's coming in. All right, Joe Cusick, cboe. Love Chicago. Joe, tell everybody at Siri's downstairs who said hello as well. Great to have you on the program. Thank you very much. Thanks. 14 and a half Vix. Dan Nathan. That's got to even make Dan Nathan a little nervous.
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B
Well, let's just put some context into this. If you're looking the spy, that's the ETF that tracks S&P 500. You look where it's trading right now, 649. That's basically tracking the 6500 that the SPX is trading at. You can buy and at the money put in September 19th expiration, which gets CPI, API and it gets that Fed meeting, it costs one and a quarter percent of the underlying. Just think about that. If you want to make a bearish bet using options on the spy and you want it through all those events to September expiration, third Friday in September, it costs you one and a quarter percent. Think about that like it's just absolutely insane. And just especially when you think of this, the apathy that's going on, not just the markets and everything else. You talk about these headlines that we're getting that three times a day, no one cares. At least the markets lens, you can see that too. So it's really cheap to buy protection. We say this all the time though, that if you're doing this too frequently, it's a really big drag on concern on returns. So the idea of doing it tactically and this could be the exact time to do it, makes a lot of sense.
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C
Would you consider that a risk reversal?
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B
No. A risk reversal. If you did this, if you sold a call, bought a put or something like that, that would be a risk.
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C
Reversal and that's your options action.
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D
May I ask you a question? What's that? What is this establishment that you speak of? This Siri, is that what you said? Siri, is that a bar?
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C
The God of restaurant, Diner and the ground floor Randolph street cibo, the God of fertility or something?
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D
Okay, you're saying it in anger towards. I'm asking you a question and you're angry at me. I mean, they might be watching the show right now. You're probably friends with a bartender.
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C
It's a diner. Oh, they have a bar.
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D
May I say something intelligent for once in 18 years? Gold market is clearly telling A much different story because gold seemingly is impervious to everything. In an environment where if you think about it, gold should be actually selling off of equities have done better yields come. I mean there are a lot of reasons to think that the gold market should be faltering. It's not. It continues higher silver does as well. Gold miners participating. Bitcoin, although not significantly off the all time highs has sold off. So there are strange things under the surface if you're paying attention.
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C
Right? We are paying attention. Everybody out there that's watching and listening because we love our radio listeners as well.
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D
SiriusXM, you do you mention them all.
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C
The time because there's a lot of people that listen on the radio but.
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D
It'S not a visual.
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C
They never get acknowledged.
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D
I love radio listeners. If you're driving two hands on the wheel.
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C
Roman God agriculture, you can do a hearing set for tomorrow morning in Fed Governor Lisa Cook's request to block President Trump from firing her. Steve Liesman has more. Steve?
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D
Good afternoon, Brian. The legal outlines of one of the most important cases in Federal Reserve history becoming clear today with the filing of a lawsuit by Fed Governor Lisa Cook to overturn her firing by the President.
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C
Of the United States.
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D
Cook called her firing, quote, a clear violation of law and asked a judge for an emergency temporary restraining order to allow her to keep her job and perform her duties. She asked for, quote, a declaration that governors can only be removed, quote, for cause. A declaration that an unsubstantiated allegation does not constitute cause, saying if it were, the president could remove any Fed governor for any allegation. She wants an injunction against the Fed and Powell from carrying out a president's illegal attempt to fire her.
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C
Cook contends the Fed's independence is at.
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Issue if the President can fire a governor based on allegations. The president said in the letter firing cook 3 days ago that the mortgage.
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Documents he had seen shows he said.
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D
That Cook claimed two primary residences and that was sufficient cause for removal. The President wrote there is sufficient reason to believe you have made false statements on one or more mortgage agreements, adding.
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C
That her actions raise questions about her competence and integrity.
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D
So the legal battle lines have been drawn.
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C
The President says he can fire her based on what he's seen and what.
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D
She did before she joined the Fed.
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Cook responds there are only these are.
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D
Only allegations not related to her actions as a Fed governor and that it's.
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C
All part of an effort to take.
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D
Over the Fed and set interest rates. A hearing on the request for the restraining order set for 10am tomorrow in.
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C
D Street District Court Bryant. Steve Liesman will finally let you sign off. Been on the air this morning, Steve. We appreciate it. Steve grasso, It's a family show so I'll keep it clean. It's a honey badger market. It doesn't give a. You know what. And the reality is Vixit14 Dan's talking about how cheap it is to buy protection on this market. Why doesn't the market seem to be rattled by anything? Well, first of all, there's a huge channel of open endedness with Alisa Cook issue. Right. We don't know whether she's going to be removed. So the market is probably looking through that. President Trump has said he's not going to remove the Fed chair. So the market is, is looking through that. The market continues to go up. Everyone thought tariffs were going to put a lid on the market. We're going to crush earnings. That didn't happen. So the market just seems to be looking through everything. And a static investing progress process has been going on. And I think that's what people are sticking because ultimately I think you would agree with this guy Dami. The S&P5 is simply a collected measure of future estimates for earnings and earnings estimates continue to go up at the bottom line. That's what the stock market is.
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D
That's fair. I mean we're still probably trading at 22ish times next year. That's historically about four turns higher than we've been. The Cape ratio for those that care. But the Shiller P E, the cost adjusted P E is now trading at levels we haven't seen historically. In 1929 it was 31, it's 39 now. It's the second highest reading in history. The Buffett indicator, he's still the greatest investor of our lifetime is now north of 200%, 210%. He gets concerned at 130%. There's no valuation cushion whatsoever in this marketplace. So as Dan would say, have at it passive investors. But you've bid this market up to levels that we basically have never seen before.
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B
Have at it the best buy in the market right now. The September at the money puts in the spy. I'll just be very clear about that.
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C
Is that that one and a half percent cost that you just like 1.1%. Let's 1.1.
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B
Let's review this.
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C
And where does that stand historically, how cheap that is?
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B
Really low.
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C
Really, really low.
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B
And I think the guy from the cbo, you know what he mentioned is that the skew is getting people want more calls than puts. It's usually the other way around.
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C
What is it? What does that mean?
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B
So it means that that calls are more expensive than that of puts. If you're looking at an equal out of. I know we're getting into the options action stuff but just understand that they're reaching for calls more than they're reaching for puts.
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C
And does that tell you again, welcome to options action, everybody. Does that tell you anything?
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B
What were you just like defrosted from like a million years and under the what it tells you is normally people buy put protection all the time and rather than just buying calls. So it's speaking to a bit of a euphoric market.
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D
Skew, put call skew for you people listening on the radio.
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C
By the way, listen to the Frozen man by James Taylor. Fantastic song.
- [20:57]
B
Or watch your film Encino Man.
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C
Whatever happened to Brendan Fraser? He ran the Academy Award. Oh, for the whale.
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D
Yeah, sure.
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C
Fantastic. All right, coming up, a lot of action happening right now. As you can tell, some of that's actually even in the market from Dell to the Gap Payments company. Affirm. We're going to get details on all ahead. Plus the surges in Snowflake and Pure Storage and why one firm is upping the ante on shares of Wind. Fast Money returns hopefully right after this breakdown. You're watching Fast MONEY here on cnbc. We'll be right back. Football season is back. Sports business expert Mike Ozanian breaks down the latest numbers.
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B
The biggest and most profitable sports league.
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C
In the world, world exclusive NFL team valuations, September 4, CNBC. All right, welcome back. Let's talk Dell shares of Dell are down a bit right now. The earnings call started last hour. It is still underway. Christina Parts and Evolis has more on Dell, a stock that's down a little bit over 4%.
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A
Yeah. And the reason is because investors are focusing on the miss for the Q3 guide. The guide came in a little bit light but when you look on a full year basis. So that means that in Q4 it's really going to be back or last quarter heavy. The company said the reason for that is storage and that'll add to profitability. It's going to see some improvement. Specifically they're starting to see also some improvement in North America. That is one of their most profitable businesses. They said it was weak, especially coming from the federal side. Why do you think that is? Doge and I'm sure the narrative that Dell wanted was they are shipping double the amount of AI servers this year, $20 billion so, you know, that's a huge other portion of their business. For those that don't know, Dell takes. They buy Nvidia chips, they package them together into AI servers and then they sell said servers to customers like Corey, for example. And they.
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C
That's literally, by the way, what Michael Dell did in his dorm room to start the computer company Dell, he assembled computers and then resold them as a. He's just replicating the model that made him one of the world's richest men.
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A
Well, when you're doing something right, why.
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C
Not continue my point? Okay.
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A
And so just to point, storage is quite bad. It fell 3% on the quarter. It seems like a lot of analysts were focusing on that, but they are quite bullish on air. And they're saying specifically a lot of Blackwell backlog. And overall backlog is about a little bit less than $12 billion.
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C
You know, and guy, the headline will be the stock's down 4%. But let's be clear, this was a $37 stock 2 and a half years ago. Now it's down. And if you're on the radio, I'm doing air quotes again down to 120 with the radio down to $128. Yeah. So let's not make too much of a 4% down move.
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D
I mean the seven people right now are in just gleeful.
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C
And I have a long.
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D
I don't want to make a big deal of it. I'll say this. People will look at valuation, say it's reasonable and it is reasonable on valuation. It also is one of these things that can become somewhat commoditized as well. I'll say this razor thin margins, I think 7.8% operating margins. It's not that it's not a good company, it's just that that valuation might be a bit, I don't know, bit of a sort of a red herring to me. 144. Steve will speak to this. Go back to November of last year. Go back to early August of this year. Bit of a double top, I think you sell the stock here.
- [24:28]
C
Yeah. And to guys point on technicals, if you look back to April 7th, it's been in an uptrend. It has not really broken down substantially. The I would say the closest we came down breaking down was about a week ago. And then the stock is back off again. The question is, do you want to buy an AI stock or do you want to buy an AI peripheral stock? And that's what Dell is. It's got a number of levers to pull and it's not a direct AI play. It's got a multitude of facets that involve AI.
- [24:59]
B
Yeah. So 40% of their sales in the way, you know, Christine just laid it out. I mean obviously this isg part of their server business is growing, you know, fast. But the problem is is that if you see a digestion in some of this capex, these are going to be probably one of the first companies hit kind of hard. We know that. Like was that smci?
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D
Was it called smc?
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B
Okay.
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C
Super Micro is Super Micro. That's helpful.
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B
You said razor thin margins. They're like half of that of Dell. So they're always going to be out there underpricing Dell. So this would be one of the first companies hit if you do see a pullback in Capex.
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A
Yeah, to your point, they're still highly exposed to just the regular PC market and we can't forget that. So that's the whole cyclical nature. The refresh was a lot slower. Windows 11, you know, we're all supposed to change our computers. We haven't really done that yet. I'm just. Why not? You're not impressed that maybe things will improve?
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D
Things could always improve.
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A
Absolutely.
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D
Things can always improve. But I'm just looking at.
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A
Well that's the thing Guide is saying.
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D
You know what, they all say that and things are improving. You listen to what Jensen said last night. He tells a great story. But things may not improve. And if things do slow down in this economy, one of the first things that cut is Capex. And who gets hurt in a capex thing? A company like Dell.
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C
What do we talk about?
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A
Why are we talking about Dell for 4% down? We talked about Nvidia all day and that stock wasn't even 1% down.
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C
I guarantee you if Nvidia went and Dan Nathan, correct me if I'm wrong, if Nvidia went down, all these stocks are going down, every single one of them.
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A
We hit all of highs today and 70% of the tech S and P tech sector was close. Higher.
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C
I agree. I'm taking her side on this. I think by the way. I don't, I don't, I don't. No, no, it's. Every stock is a buyer show is Brian. That's fair. So I do believe there's a scenario where in video could sell off and the rest of the market can rally like today. That happened today. So is it an extended thing? Can it happen in an extended fashion? I believe so. I think there's a way that the Mag 6 can all rally and Nvidia could sell off. Yes, yes, I believe that.
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B
So Marvell is down in the aftermarket right now. They make custom silicon. They are competitor, for all intents and purposes, of Nvidia. And this is a stock that's massively underperformed the stocks. Next week. I think next week we're going to get the Broadcom. That comes out.
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D
What? Avgo.
- [27:13]
B
Avgo. And so that'll be a really interesting. So if we see like these small little misses in data center, that's what happened here in Marvell. That could be the thing that causes some of these stocks to start cresting. Start cresting.
- [27:25]
C
Cresting, cresting. I like that. All right, Christina, thank you very much.
- [27:29]
D
It was Spirit.
- [27:30]
B
Yeah, she's good at what she does.
- [27:32]
C
Now to another big technology name, Snowflake, soaring 20% today, its best day in nearly a year. It also beat the Street. We talked about it a little bit last night. Numbers came out. Now, Snowflake, it's interesting, Dan. The stock is well off its highs of four years ago. Well off its highs, but it's also well off its lows of last year. So how do we read Snowflake?
- [27:54]
B
Yeah, I mean, listen, this is one of these very unique plays within this generative AI. And one of the things I'll just say is you're seeing the trade kind of broaden out a little bit. So as we get into some of these software earnings, you know, you better see some of these companies being rewarded for it. And, you know, I was on John Ford show. What do you call that thing?
- [28:10]
D
The overtime.
- [28:10]
B
The overtime. The OT. And we were talking about this just for like 30 seconds, though. Next week we're gonna have Salesforce and we're gonna have Figma reporting after the close on Wednesday. These have nothing to do with Snowflake. I want to be really clear. But as the is broadening out, is trying to find new ways to express it. It'll be interesting to see how investors react to what they have to say about their contribution or the productivity gains that they're seeing from Generative AI. So to me, that's the thing that I'm most focused on.
- [28:36]
D
Were you here last night? You were.
- [28:38]
C
I was.
- [28:38]
D
You recall we talked about the Snowflake.
- [28:41]
C
I just said that.
- [28:41]
D
I know for the radio audience, in case they're not paying attention.
- [28:45]
C
Stop it.
- [28:46]
D
We said there's a very good chance it trades up to the February of 2024 high, which is about 242, 243. Look at the screen. Here we are. Today. It traded 41 million shares, 10 times normal volume valuation makes zero sense. If you've enjoyed this run, in my opinion, you're taking money off the table.
- [29:05]
C
Well said. All right, coming up, why one Wall street firm says you got to up the ante on Win and it may not do with what you think it does. You're watching Fast Money live for the NASDAQ market site. We are back right after this Football season is back. Sports business expert Mike Ozanian breaks down the latest numbers.
- [29:33]
D
The biggest and most profitable sports league in the world.
- [29:36]
C
Exclusive NFL team valuations, September 4th. CNBC. All right, UBS giving Wynn a win. Today it raised its rating on Wynn to a buy. And it's not because of Las Vegas. It has to do with Macao, China and also a huge new resort that Win is building in the UAE near Dubai that is really going to change the entire complexion of the region. Guy Dominic Wins had a good year. It's up 47% now. This resort, obviously in the UAE, it still needs to be developed and built and have customers. It's going to open in 2027. But wow, they're really bullish on Macao.
- [30:12]
D
As they should be. And I think people are starting to figure it out. If Tim Seymour was on the desk, he would speak wax poetic about it. And I still think despite the move, there's room to the upside. A lot of very influential people have been taking stakes here. One of your dear friends is probably watching right now. We've been talking about the last couple of weeks. Contested does a great job around the space. They're late to the game, but it doesn't mean they're wrong. I think Win continues to go higher from here.
- [30:36]
C
Yeah, I mean, I agree with everything that guy said. It's just if you look at mgm, I just pulled up MGM on my screen. It's definitely underperformed. When is you nailed it. They're looking at the luxury property at the uae. They're banking on that. They have a high debt level. They took out money to finance the UAE project. MGM has exposure to online gaming. Wind does not. Granted, MGM is a, it's a very, very small online gambling exposure, but it's growing dramatically. And when it doesn't really have it there. So if you want a luxury gaming casino name to play, you stick with Win. If you want to play something that is a little more conservative and has a much better valuation, you go with mgm. Well, they're different companies. The Win is going for the high end to that point. I mean, this thing they're building in the UAE and one of the Emirates, it's not in Dubai and it's not in Abu Dhabi. It's only two emirates. Of the seven anybody can name, Carl Shaira is the third one that they're building this in Ras Al Karma. Excuse me. Looks magnificent. It looks amazing.
- [31:39]
D
You could have said anything and I would have nodded my head.
- [31:43]
C
My point is they're really this is going to change. It's on a man made island about 50 minutes from Dubai. It's going to change the complexion. If it works. It's going to, I think a hell of a commute for you to go to that casino. A long commute.
- [31:55]
D
Their price target is 147. I think if you go back to March of 2021, I think that's where we topped out at. I think that's where it's going, Brian. And good for them. They're taking a shot. They're gambling. They should gamble. If you think about it, what I.
- [32:08]
C
Did there, I see what you did there. All right, Coming up, we are going to fall into the gap as those shares fall. Missed a moment of fast. Catch us anytime on the go. Follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this. If you're just joining us, time for a quick market reset. Stocks climbing again today. The Dow and the S and P both closing at record highs. In fact, the S&P 500 passing the 6500 level for the first time ever. The NASDAQ jumping about a half a percent. Not a good day for Hormel. Most known, I think Guy Dami for spam, but also Dinty Moore Beef stew, a college staple fell 13%. They hit a 52 week low. Warned that profits would be lower than expected in the current quarter. Hormel is grappling with higher commodity costs heading the other direction. Pure storage, wow. 32% gain for pure storage top DPS top revenue. Also some other action happening right now. Software company Elastic based in the Netherlands, but traded here surging after topping EPS and revenue estimates. Ulta higher on a revenue beat. Marvell Technology, Dan talked about him earlier. A little bit lower on some disappointing revenue guidance. And Autodesk higher after beating earnings and revenue estimates. Now to retail because Gap also reporting results. Shares have been down over 9%. It's off the lows right now. The company though missing estimates for revenue and same store sales. Conference call kicked off at the top of the hour. Courtney Reagan putting in the work today since before the sun came up. Courtney, we're glad you joined us.
- [33:59]
A
Hi. Thanks Brian to the conference call for Gap. Still going on just now getting to the analyst Q and A. I think they might be on the second or third question here when I just turned it down. But as you mentioned, disappointing quarter when you're comparing to analysts estimates for sales and comparable sales for the Gap. However, earnings did come in slightly better than expected, margins a little bit weak. And when you're looking at the full year forecast, really what we should focus on here is that operating income and the hit from tariffs. So a little messy in the release, but what the company told us when I spoke with the CFO Katrina o' Connell is that while in May the tariff assumptions at the time led Gap to believe that tariffs would have a 100 million to $150 million drag on operating income, they are now looking for that to be between 150 and $175 million drag on operating income. So a little bit worse than previous. They're going through all the mitigation strategies that you might expect, looking to switch some sourcing, sourcing to Central America, Guatemala, Mexico, Haiti. They're sort of doing this pricing very carefully, but as they always do, according to CEO Richard Dickson. He says that, you know, of course they do raise prices, but as the brands get more relevant, even in the areas where the prices are higher, it's increasing our price elasticity and we're driving higher sell through at those fuller prices and we had less discounting as a result tariffs. Of course, the talk of many conference calls today, Best Buy also talking about it. We know that they have a lot of sourcing out of China, Mexico, another big country of importance. And CEO Corey Berry told reporters on that call that it did not increase the price results, didn't actually increase the blended average for overall prices for the quarter. So said it really wasn't much of of an impact overall. And then asked specifically by reporters on the media call, have you talked to the White House, have you told them how tariffs are impacting Best Buy and or your consumers? And she said, quote, we're just trying to help the best that we can when she talks to the White House and just from a purely independent point of view, help them understand what we're seeing and what we're hearing. Back over to you.
- [36:06]
C
All right. Courtney Reagan. Courtney, do appreciate that, Steve. Gosh, I was looking at the gap chart. Yeah, I knew the stock's kind of been all over the place. It's insane. You go back 10 years on the Gap, it's gone between 10 and $50 like six times. What's your take on Gap? Any reason to own it? You grew up going to the Gap. I want to. I grew up going to the Gap. It was, it was a whole shopping. I think I was shopping. My mother used to take me there. Okay, now you want to make fun of my mother. I don't think so. Why would that took a dark turn. So. But when I look at the stock, it really escalated. It has so many different, different brands. It gets a little confusing when you look at the Gap. I mean when you look at the Gap stock, the chart does not make me want to buy the name. But when I look at like a TJ Max at all time highs that company made. Well, think about why TJ Max is actually benefiting because all the over ordering Gap is spending a lot of money trying to work around tariffs. TJ Max is getting the benefit of taking everyone's excess inventory and their margins are growing. So TJ Max, Ross stores, names like that are the names you want to buy. Gap stores stay away from right now.
- [37:18]
D
Old Navy and Gap treading water. Banana Republic killing it. They're getting killed on athletic. And here's the big problem. Inventories are up almost 9% year over year against flat sales growth, meaning that margins are going to continue to contract. Meaning that in my opinion, you don't buy the stock here.
- [37:37]
C
Don't buy it. Dan, are you going to make it a unanimous 3 for 3?
- [37:41]
B
I don't think about the Gap stock, but I think about some of these other consumer discretionary names. You think about index, which is down obviously today, and Best Buy. I mean some of these companies are having a hard time. You know, they're going to have inventory issues, they're going to have weakening consumer issues and the ability to kind of pass on some of these increased tariff taxes. I mean it's going to be really hard. So I think into the holiday season we might see some further kind of disruption in some of these consumer discretionary names.
- [38:07]
C
But Steve, still a fan of Raw stores and tjx. They're no chess king though. Come see. Thank you for giving that more after hours action Coming up, shares of a firm jumping after reporting. Going to get details from that quarter coming up. All right, welcome back to Fast Money. We got an earnings alert on a firm, the payment stock jumping. It's up 14% after beating on both the top and the bottom line. Let's figure out exactly what's going on. Mackenzie SE Gallos has the numbers and the story behind them out west. Mackenzie.
- [38:42]
A
Hey, Brian. So it was a beat Pretty much across the board. Now, going into the print, the big question was whether losing Walmart to rival Klarna would drag on results. But instead, a firm's key volume metric beat the street by nearly $1 billion, helped by its partnerships with Apple, Shopify and Amazon. Now they've also been making a big push to take share at the point of sale with the Affirm card. And that effort is paying off with in store spend on the card growing 187% and active cardholders almost doubling. And that's key, Brian, because this is the company's big bet for driving greater usage overall. Now, I've been listening in on that earnings call and one point that CEO Max Levchin is making this quarter is that early tests of its new AI system are also a bright spot for the company. Merchants using it saw a 5% lift in volume.
- [39:34]
C
Do we know why they're going to get a lift in volume? Mackenzie from. From AI.
- [39:40]
A
You know, part of this is just about optimizing certain workflows internally, so building on those LMS and some of these, you know, base level APIs. But then there's also the side of it that's consumer facing that basically eases the experience for the customer. And so merchants that are baking in those solutions are seeing upside here.
- [39:59]
C
All right, Mac, really appreciate that. Thank you very much.
- [40:01]
B
Dan, she just crushed that. I mean, like, that was about as succinct as you could get based on your question about where the benefits are coming right from AI. There's a lot of companies who are getting increased productivity and she just mentioned that. But also the customer facing stuff, the thing about a firm might be really interesting. What we're talking about is a consumer that has been weakening, maybe that GMV value, the gross merchandise volume is going up because you're seeing more and more consumers, you know, really having difficulty with some of these higher prices based on the tariffs. And the idea of kind of spreading those out over a period of time might be the reason for that beat.
- [40:34]
D
And that's the full year guide for that GMB that end north of $46 billion. And to your point about why, I. I'll tell you why. Because they, they basically gave guidance for operating margins north of 26%, which is significant. And a lot of it's probably built upon what you just asked MacKenzie. AI.
- [40:53]
C
There you go. It's. And Dan, I don't know if you know anything about Ivy League schools, but Mack went to Harvard. Wow.
- [40:58]
B
So you know, Melissa Lee went to Harvard.
- [41:00]
D
I know you went To Virginia Tech.
- [41:02]
C
I'm the only one who went to a public school.
- [41:04]
D
There's nothing wrong with that black football team, is it?
- [41:08]
B
Well you had, now you're, now you had Vic, he was a great guy.
- [41:11]
D
They're playing the music.
- [41:12]
C
He's poking me because I was. Coming up EV compet. He knows what he's doing. Competition like my blood pressure is going to up for Tesla. Coming up, we're going to talk about EVs, BYD, Tesla and all the above. All right, welcome back to Fast Money. The electric vehicle showdown continues. And Tesla has taken more than a few hits from Chinese competitor byd. The European Automobile Manufacturers association reporting Tesla's European sales slipped 40% year over year. BYD meanwhile saw 225% annual jump. They're new to the market, Dan Nathan. So they're going to have these bigger numbers because they're new. But I heard you on the 4pm.
- [41:58]
B
Show with John Fort.
- [42:00]
C
With John Fort, 1pm Out west that Tesla's best days are behind it in EVs.
- [42:05]
B
I mean so if you're buying the stock, robots. Yeah, well I mean listen, I mean that's why you're buying the stock right here. Robotox and Optimus this. And you know, when you think about byd, I mean they're actually demolishing Tesla as far as market share. And you know, BYD has made a different bet than Elon Musk. They are, you know, they have battery, you know, EVs and they also have full EVs and you know Elon is not going to be doing that. BYD is also giving away full self driving. And here in the U.S. you know, Tesla isn't even allowed to call it full self driving, supervised full self driving. So to me, you know, Tesla sold 8,800 cars across all of Europe in July. That's what we're talking about is not a lot here. So again, I think their best days are behind them in EVs.
- [42:47]
C
And also you have the EV deadline for the federal subsidies coming up September 30th. 30th. So that's going to affect either a pull forward for some of the other EV manufacturers or even Tesla. But as Dan said, if you're buying Tesla, you're buying it for full self drive and you're buying it for optimum us. So those are the plays that, that you're hoping that they can leverage going forward. I will tell you when you look at the chart and all of us are on this desk every time you write off Tesla or ELON musk. He's got more lives than a cat. He pulls something out of the hat. It seems like everyone's betting against him now, but that could change on a.
- [43:23]
D
Dime.357 is the April high ish. You got to get a close above there. Close above there. You got some sort of blue sky above. But it's had a lot of trouble at these levels for now the last four or five months. So that's your bogey.
- [43:35]
C
There you go. You're my blue sky. You're my sunny day.
- [43:38]
D
Great song. Dickey Betts wrote that song.
- [43:40]
C
Up next, your final traits. Steve Grasshopper kickoff final trade. FuboTV I mean, look at the chart. It's been decimated. I think it's got tremendous.
- [44:03]
B
Skew. And the spy and the options market is giving you an opportunity here. Sully I think spy puts are a.
- [44:09]
C
Good buy here and they're cheap.
- [44:12]
B
Other than that they're dollar cheap and they're volt cheap.
- [44:14]
D
For the radio listeners, I love Brian Sullivan. There's no angst between us. For the radio listeners, we have a great page in Alexa Lamonaco. Her family's here. Give it up.
- [44:23]
C
Make some noise. Make some noise back there.
- [44:26]
D
Fantastic. Salesforce comes out. CRM.
- [44:30]
C
Fantastic. Great stuff. I can't wait to be here tomorrow. Thanks for watching, everybody. Mad money starts right now.
- [44:40]
A
All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company, or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates andor subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer Football season is back.
- [45:23]
C
Sports business expert Mike Ozanian breaks down the latest numbers.
- [45:27]
B
The biggest and most profitable sports league in the world.
- [45:29]
C
Exclusive NFL team valuations. September 4th. CNBC.