CNBC Fast Money: Nvidia Reports Results… And Cracker Barrel Loses Its “New” Logo

Air Date: August 27, 2025
Host: Brian Sullivan (in for Melissa Lee)
Panelists: Steve Grasso, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami, Danny Moses (Moses Ventures), Christina Parsonnellis, Julia Boorstin
Special Guest: Chris Rollins (Senior Analyst, Susquehanna Financial Group)

Episode Overview

This episode dives into Nvidia’s latest earnings release, with the stock’s mixed after-hours reaction under scrutiny, particularly related to high expectations versus actual performance. The conversation also covers the broader market’s resilience, key sector moves (especially financials), dramatic swings in tech names like CrowdStrike and Snowflake, uranium’s hot streak, and the surprising stock bump for Cracker Barrel amid branding drama. Throughout, the panel keeps a brisk, candid, and actionable investor-focused tone.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Nvidia Earnings and the AI Cycle

(Main Segment Start: 01:02)

• Nvidia delivered earnings that technically beat Wall Street estimates but failed to clear ultra-high “whisper numbers” set by institutional investors.
  • Christina Parsonnellis: “The whisper number represents institutional buyers, and that was at $55 billion. And what we saw was $54 billion for the guide.” (02:54)
• The company did not include any H20 China chip sales in its guide, similar to AMD’s approach, due to uncertainty around export licenses.
• Gross margins rose to 73.5%, continuing near the long-term 75% target, highlighting ongoing pricing power.
• Blackwell chip sales and the next-gen 'Rubin' platform are seen as major future growth levers, with hyperscaler/cloud-provider demand contributing notably despite a technical miss versus estimates for the second quarter in a row.

Panel Tone:

• The mood is pragmatic: While stunning revenue growth persists, the scale of percentage “beats” is narrowing, tempering the stock’s momentum despite strong fundamentals.

Notable Quotes

• Dan Nathan (on high expectations):
  “If [expectations] were really high, the stock would be down 10% right now. That's all I'm saying.” (04:33)

• Danny Moses (on slowing growth rate):
  “The numbers have grown without question... But the percentage beats are getting smaller. So when do you think the market starts to care…?” (07:44)

• Chris Rollins (on size of Nvidia’s growth):
  “Annual revenue for Nvidia was about $17 billion four years ago. …It’s now estimated to be what, 150 billion… going to 200 billion. Nvidia has added a trillion dollars of market cap this year—that’s ten Starbucks.” (11:36, 12:01)

China, Licensing, and the “15% Tax” Question

Key Segment:

• The US government has a requirement for Nvidia (and others) to “give back 15%” of China chip sales—a de facto export tax or “vig,” with details still being codified.

• Christina Parsonnellis explains: Nvidia might raise prices to compensate, but this would risk further souring the China relationship. (06:24)

• Chris Rollins (breaking news from the call):

  • “Nvidia could ship $2–5 billion of H20 chips in the third quarter if geopolitical issues subside…That’s not in their official guidance—so that would be on top.” (15:30, 15:35)

What Would Be a Red Flag for Nvidia?

• Chris Rollins: Watch for the hyperscaler (large cloud client) CapEx trend.
  • “Every time these guys have reported CapEx, that number has gone higher. If you see a revision lower or no revisions higher, that might be the first yellow flag.” (16:33)

Supply Constraints Question

• Can Nvidia physically manufacture enough chips to meet ambitious sales?
  • Christina Parsonnellis: “If she's blatantly stating that they're going to sell 2 to 5 billion dollars, they must know they have the cap to build those chips.” (18:13)

2. Financials: Bank Stock Surge

(18:37)

• S&P Financials ETF hit an all-time high—up 20% YoY.
• Top performers: Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Citi, Bank of America—many at multi-year/record highs.
• Dan Nathan: Recent price action reflects improving corporate/consumer health, with no major warning signs from bank executives.
• Danny Moses: Citi is still “cheap”; expects more upside as turnaround continues. (19:44)

3. Earnings in Focus: CrowdStrike and Snowflake

(21:43–25:37)

• CrowdStrike: Fell ~6.5% after hours on a strong quarter but slight revenue guidance miss and a surprise acquisition.
  • Notably, “68% of revenue comes from the US government—higher than Palantir.” (23:15)
  • Technical read (Guy Adami, Danny Moses): Stock pulls back to a long-term uptrend line—a potential “buy-the-dip” opportunity if fundamentals remain intact.
• Snowflake: Rose 13.5% on a clean beat and robust guidance.
  • Dan Nathan: “Stocks trading at 100–150x earnings must be perfect—Snowflake nailed it, CrowdStrike didn’t.”

4. Streaming: YouTube TV vs. Fox Showdown

(27:10–32:25)

• Negotiations between YouTube TV (Google) and Fox over renewals put ~9.4 million subscribers’ access to Fox’s sports/news channels at risk.
• Julia Boorstin: A temporary extension averts immediate blackout. FCC and President Trump put public pressure for a resolution.
• Panel consensus: Sports is the true leverage point in streaming disputes—distribution may matter even more than content long-term.

Notable Exchange:

• Dan Nathan: “I know that everyone says content is king. I think streaming distribution is going to be more important in the distant future.” (31:06)

5. Energy Spotlight: The Uranium/Nuclear Trade

(35:35–37:19)

• Uranium ETF (URA) has nearly doubled since spring; World Nuclear Symposium (Sept. 3–5, London) flagged as a major potential catalyst.
• Danny Moses: “If you like the AI trade, something’s got to power it…I play SRUUF—a trust owning physical uranium. Nuclear has broad bipartisan support as clean energy.”
• Names To Watch: Oklo (up 1000% YoY), Cameco, TerraPower, and various ETFs.

6. Branding Drama: Cracker Barrel Reverts Logo

(37:19–41:41)

• Cracker Barrel quickly reversed its recently unveiled logo after backlash—a decision welcomed by both the market (+8% pop) and customers.
• Steve Grasso: “Sort of a flash in the pan…but the stock has crashed and come back. This could end up being the playbook for other brands looking for publicity.”
• Broader takeaway: Even minor rebrands can become major stock catalysts in the viral social media era.

7. Nvidia Conference Call – Late-Breaking Updates

Return to Nvidia: (42:10)

• China Market: CEO Jensen Huang reiterates the China market is worth $50B+, and their Blackwell chips may soon ship if US policy allows—implying significant new upside if tensions cool.
• Customer Concentration: 23% of Nvidia’s revenue may come from a single customer—creating some risk if spending patterns shift. (43:04)

Notable Quotes (With Timestamps)

• Christina Parsonnellis (on margins): “Gross margins coming in at 73.5—higher than anticipated…showing that the company is inching closer and closer back to that mid-70s level they promised at 75.” (03:11)

• Chris Rollins (on ChatGPT’s impact):
  “The chat GPT moment in 2022 changed everything…at least 80% of everything AI right now [is powered by Nvidia].” (12:28)

• Christina Parsonnellis (on sovereign AI):
  “They are seeing $20 billion in sovereign AI revenue this year, which is double that of just last year. Jensen Huang…predicting that in five years' time, that opportunity will grow to $3 to $4 trillion for Nvidia.” (32:53)

Timestamps for Major Segments

• Nvidia Earnings Analysis: 01:02–18:37
• Bank Stocks Rally: 18:37–20:06
• Tech Earnings (CrowdStrike/Snowflake): 21:43–25:37
• Streaming Battle (YouTube TV vs Fox): 27:10–32:25
• Uranium/Nuclear Stocks: 35:35–37:19
• Cracker Barrel Logo U-turn: 37:19–41:41
• Late Nvidia Call Highlights: 42:10–44:31

Actionable Takeaways & Insights

• Nvidia’s growth and margins remain stellar, but market expects increasingly large beats—the “high-class problem.”
• China sales are a swing factor; geopolitical clarity could add billions to the top line.
• Bank stocks are in breakout territory, with Citi called out for more upside potential.
• CrowdStrike’s revenue guidance miss and heavy reliance on government contracts flagged as key risks; Snowflake rewarded for exceeding high expectations.
• Content vs Distribution is a live debate in streaming; sports is the main value driver.
• Uranium and nuclear names look set for continued strength amid global clean energy pivot—potential trading catalysts ahead.
• Branding decisions can have unexpected market impacts—even for overlooked restaurant chains.

Closing Panel Trades:

• Steve Grasso: Sprott Uranium (SRUUF)
• Guy Adami: Sprott Physical Gold (PHYS), but for uranium, SRUUF
• Dan Nathan: Not buying Nvidia post-earnings; cautious given muted reaction
• Danny Moses: Still bullish on Citigroup

This summary distills the entire episode with all relevant developments, notable moments, and quotes, providing a comprehensive briefing for investors and market enthusiasts alike.