CNBC’s “Fast Money”

Episode: Nvidia Reports Results… And Target Misses The Mark (11/19/25)
Date: November 19, 2025
Host: Melissa Lee with Tim Seymour, Karen Feinerman, Dan Nathan, and Guy Adami

Episode Overview

This action-packed episode tackled two headline earnings stories: Nvidia’s blockbuster quarter and Target’s disappointing guidance. The roundtable dissected Nvidia’s surging results, growing backlog, and its ripple effects across the tech ecosystem, before moving on to the challenges facing Target and the broader consumer sector. The conversation also touched on crypto’s slide, Caterpillar’s surprising AI-fueled outperformance, the implications of large US-Saudi investment deals, trends in rate expectations, and fast-moving stocks like Freeport and Lilly.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Nvidia Blows Past Expectations

[00:48–19:46]

Earnings Highlights and Market Reaction

• Nvidia’s Q4 Revenue Guidance smashed expectations:
  • “Q4 Revenue Guide…came in higher not only than what the Street was estimating, but higher than buy side numbers. So at $65 billion…already higher there.” – Christina Parts Nevelis [01:44]
• Gross Margins:
  • Beat skepticism, staying “mid-70s” despite higher input costs.
  • “There were certain concerns that gross margins would come down…that is a huge positive.” – Christina [01:44]
• Stock Reaction:
  • After-hours shares up about 4.5%, peaking at +6.2% on news.
  • Yet, response “somewhat muted,” notably for a $4.5T company.
  • “Given the setup into this earnings release, it makes sense... I think the stock’s going higher on this independent of the market.” – Tim Seymour [06:07]

Visibility and Pricing Power

• $500 Billion Order Backlog:
  • Huge clarity into 2026: “That $500 billion number is such a big number…such a surprising amount of clarity.” – Karen Feinerman [04:44]
  • Some see upside: “Is there upside potentially to that number?” – Chris Rolland [11:55]
  • CFO confirmed on the call: “There’s definitely an opportunity to have more on top of that $500 billion…” – Christina [33:27]
• Pricing power:
  • ASP for the upcoming ‘Rubin’ rack “is much higher,” keeping margins robust but raising costs for hyperscaler customers (Microsoft, Google, Meta).
  • “Should they (hyperscalers) be trading up off this?…Every dollar that Nvidia makes, it’s a dollar taken away from the hyperscalers.” – Dan Nathan [04:31]
  • “It gets more expensive for all these hyperscalers that have to spend $4.8 million…” – Christina [07:00]

Customers and Ecosystem Impact

• Hyperscalers’ muted reaction: “For every dollar Nvidia makes, it’s a dollar taken away from the hyperscalers. Reinforcing that notion that maybe that there is this massive spend with a questionable ROI.” – Melissa Lee [04:31]
• Questions around hyperscalers’ spending:
  • “If more and more companies start to get penalized because of the spend, what are they going to start to do? They might say, maybe we shouldn’t be spending.” – Guy Adami [07:48]
  • Meta/Big Tech still likely to spend: “I think they believe they need to continue to spend and I don’t think they’re going to stop spending.” – Tim Seymour [08:38]
• Positive “halo effect” seen for AMD, Micron, TSMC.

Notable Quotes

• “Virtuous AI cycle, right off the charts…can’t get any better than this, Guy.” – Melissa Lee [02:57]
• “Nobody manages the Street better than Jensen [Huang]. Every single word you would want to come out of his mouth has come out.” – Karen [05:51]
• “The bookends…Meta just lost in market cap what they have committed to spend more capex more. A month and a half ago Oracle actually gets this revenue.” – Dan Nathan [09:47]

Other Issues

• Free cash flow miss: “Missed by $5B, street was looking for $27B, came in at $22B. I don’t think anybody cares about that given the other numbers.” – Dan Nathan [10:51]
• Product Depreciation: “Profitability is being overstated currently, overall, including the cloud GPU vendors.” – Chris Rolland, discussing the fast value decay of GPUs [15:32]
• China Sales:
  • Some Q3 sales excluded due to restrictions; seen as both a risk and an opportunity for “pent up demand.”
  • “Is that either a positive?...That’s pent up demand…or does that underscore the notion [chipmakers] are being kept out of the Chinese market?” – Tim Seymour/Melissa Lee [16:20–16:53]

2. Crypto Companies & Bitcoin Slump

[24:22–26:52]

• Major “crypto treasury” stocks (including strategy, MARA, Riot, Coinbase) fell sharply as Bitcoin dipped below $90,000, hitting a seven-month low.
• Meme-stock Dynamics:
  • “These became meme stocks…now you're seeing them unwind.” – Dan Nathan [24:43]
• Treasury Companies vs. Bitcoin:
  • “Why pay more for extra bitcoin?...Now this vicious cycle, we don’t know where that’s going to be triggered.” – Karen Feinerman [26:08]

3. Caterpillar: An Industrial-AI Surprise

[28:14–33:01]

• Top Dow performer (+50% YTD), now riding AI wave by supplying backup generators, solar turbines for data centers.
• CEO Joe Creed: Cemented Cat’s role in “AI buildout.”
• Shift in Narrative:
  • “That sleepy energy transportation business now makes up 40% of total sales.” – Sima Modi [28:29]
  • “That narrative is changing…CAT was the China proxy. It's trying to become more a part of the trade.” – Sima Modi [29:14]
• Street Split:
  • 48% analysts ‘buy,’ 45% ‘hold,’ 7% ‘sell.’ Price targets vary from $380 to $730.
• Skepticism:
  • “When you get this sort of outperformance by a stock…you’re going to chase this stock up 100% since April…because they’re telling a good story about how they’re using AI operationally.” – Dan Nathan [31:20]
  • “This used to be a cyclical company…traded at low double digits multiple, now mid-20s.” – Karen Feinerman [32:16]

4. Target Misses on Guidance, Faces Turnaround Challenge

[34:54–39:50]

• Mixed Q3 results, cut guidance, third straight quarter of declining sales.
• Incoming CEO Michael Fidelke: Announced $1B more CapEx for 2026 and partnership with OpenAir.
• Skepticism on Recovery:
  • “Pretty lackluster from Target…earnings growth down, cutting guidance again.” – David Bellinger, Mizuho [35:30]
• Competitive Disadvantage:
  • “WalMart...spent $200B in CapEx over the past decade. There’s a big uphill battle for Target.” – Bellinger [35:48]
• Losing the Customer?
  • “Are we at the point where the peak Target shopper...has found other places to buy their throw pillows?” – Melissa Lee [36:17]
• Need for Grocery Focus:
  • “If they went after grocery…get that frequency of delivery. Why couldn’t Target have a good grocery business, maybe partner with Trader Joe’s or Aldi, and get a shop-in-shop in the store?” – Bellinger [36:34]
• Discount on Valuation:
  • “Under 12 times versus WalMart...it has so far turned out to be WalMart’s a better place to be.” – Karen [40:00–40:15]

5. Fed, Interest Rates & Market Sentiment

[19:46–22:32]

• Fed Minutes:
  • “Many officials” now suggest “no more [rate cuts] are needed” this year.
  • “You probably gotta get until January, February to sort it out.” – Guy Adami [20:38]
• Market Response:
  • “Markets now pricing in a 1-in-3 chance [of a cut]...”
• No October/November Jobs Report:
  • Data delays due to prior government shutdown; creates “data purgatory.”
• General Assessment:
  • “If they don’t cut, it’s just a cut delayed not denied...the window gets closer.” – Karen [21:46]
  • “The volatility we’ve seen, the grind in the market…has really been about this trade, not really about data or what the Fed’s gonna do.” – Dan Nathan [21:58]

6. US-Saudi Investment Forum: A Trillion-Dollar Question

[40:15–43:41]

• White House: $1 Trillion Saudi investment in US announced, up from $600B.
  • “No details, no specifics…waiting for the White House to fill in the blanks.” – Eamon Javers [42:58]
• AI Chips Export Approval:
  • US Commerce greenlights advanced AI chips (including Nvidia’s ‘Blackwell’) to the Middle East/Abu Dhabi. [33:27, 40:56]
• Skepticism on Saudi Funding:
  • “PIF…less than a trillion dollars. They have Aramco which is illiquid…likelihood of them spending $500B–$1T is probably very unlikely.” – Dan Nathan [43:09]

7. Stock Movers: Freeport & Eli Lilly

[44:21–44:56]

• Freeport:
  • Up 3% after upgrade, seen as “infrastructure and data center trade.” [44:21]
  • “Copper prices overall are going higher…like with Tim.” – Dan Nathan [44:34]
• Eli Lilly:
  • At new highs, approaching $1T market cap, but “gotten ahead of itself.” Karen sold upside calls [44:44]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Virtuous AI cycle, right off the charts...can’t get any better than this, Guy.” — Melissa Lee on Nvidia’s language [02:57]
• “Nobody manages the Street better than Jensen [Huang]. Every single word you would want to come out of his mouth has come out.” — Karen [05:51]
• “For every dollar Nvidia makes, it’s a dollar taken away from the hyperscalers. Reinforcing that notion that maybe that there is this massive spend with a questionable ROI.” — Melissa Lee [04:31]
• “It’s so funny. If he’s saying $500 [billion], he has to know it’s bigger. That’s why Chris wants more than $500 now.” — Tim Seymour [17:31]
• “Just because they’re [hyperscalers] spending doesn’t mean they’re in it.” — Tim Seymour [19:26]
• “Crypto treasury companies became meme stocks…now you’re seeing them unwind.” — Dan Nathan [24:43]
• “CAT was the China proxy. It’s trying to become more a part of the [AI/data center] trade.” — Sima Modi [29:14]
• “Peak Target…has found elsewhere to buy their throw pillows and lamps and groceries...” — Melissa Lee [36:17]

Important Timestamps

| Segment | Timestamp | |-----------------------------------------------|------------| | Nvidia results intro & headlines | 00:48-02:57| | Analyst & roundtable on Nvidia’s upside | 02:57-19:46| | Crypto company rout and meme stock unwind | 24:22-26:52| | Caterpillar surges on AI/data center demand | 28:14-33:01| | Target’s guidance and retail chatter | 34:54-40:15| | US-Saudi investment, chip exports | 40:15-43:41| | Freeport/Lilly movers & analyst commentary | 44:21-44:56| | Notable post-Nvidia call update | 33:27-34:31|

Tone & Style

The panel maintained their trademark sharp, skeptical, and witty banter—challenging consensus, celebrating Jensen Huang’s mastery of expectations, and constantly seeking actionable market angles (“If you’re chasing this stock up 100% since April…have at it.”). They balanced deep dives (Nvidia’s numbers, Target’s strategic position) with brisk commentary on news flow and sector rotations. Memorable one-liners—like “Nobody manages the Street better than Jensen” and “CAT was the China proxy”—kept things lively and accessible.

Summary for Listeners

If you missed the episode, here’s what mattered:

• Nvidia’s earnings were a blowout, with historic visibility and strong guidance, but some on the desk see a muted market reaction and broader implications for tech spending.
• Target continues to struggle amid competitive and consumer headwinds, with skepticism on a robust turnaround.
• AI demand is reshaping unlikely corners of the market—from Caterpillar to copper miners.
• Big headlines (crypto rout, Saudi investments, Fed ambiguity) contributed to a market grinding for direction.

For investors, the episode offers actionable nuance: confidence in Nvidia’s AI cycle (but with caution on customer ROI), skepticism on retail turnarounds without clear grocery or tech advantages, and an eye on sector winners from AI infrastructure buildout.