CNBC's "Fast Money" Podcast Summary
Episode: Nvidia’s GTC Conference Underway… And Fed Decision On Deck
Release Date: March 18, 2025

Host: Melissa Lee
Guests: Tim Seymour, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami, Carter Braxton Worth, Christina Parts Nevels, Stacey Raskin, Jeff Mills, Megan Casella, Jim Cramer

1. Market Overview and Headlines

Time Stamp: 01:03

Melissa Lee opens the episode from the NASDAQ headquarters in Times Square, highlighting a day of significant market activity. Following a rare two-day rally, major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are retreating for the week, signaling investor caution ahead of the Federal Reserve's impending decision.

Key Events:

• Nvidia's GTC Conference: The centerpiece of today’s discussion.
• Fed Decision: Critical for market direction.
• Tech Stock Movements: Alphabet and Meta (formerly Facebook) experiencing notable declines.
• Travel and Financial Sectors: Airlines, cruise lines, and financial services stocks facing headwinds.
• Metals Market: Gold reaching record highs, while copper outperforms other metals.

2. Nvidia’s GTC Conference Analysis

Time Stamp: 01:03 – 21:12

Key Points from Christina Parts Nevels (02:21):

• Jensen Huang’s Keynote: Focused on maintaining Nvidia’s dominance amidst rising competition.
• Product Announcements: Introduction of Blackwell Ultra and Vera Rubin chips with projected release timelines.
• Market Reaction: Despite robust announcements, Nvidia shares fell 3.5% during the session, culminating in a near 25% drop from its all-time high.

Discussion Highlights:

• Demand Concerns: Christina (04:00) and other analysts express skepticism about whether demand will sustain Nvidia’s ambitious projections. Jenny Huang’s reassurance that next-gen AI will require significantly more compute power did little to alleviate investor anxieties.

• Analyst Perspectives:

  • Guy Adami (05:29): Points out that while Jensen’s roadmap is technically impressive, it doesn’t directly address investor concerns about margins and sustained demand.
  • Dan Nathan (06:09): Highlights that Nvidia’s stock trends show vulnerability, indicating potential risks despite product advancements.
  • Carter Braxton Worth (06:17): Emphasizes that current market movements make sense given the lack of investor reassurances on financial metrics.

Bernstein Research’s Stacey Raskin (08:36):

• Chart Analysis: Discusses the significant drop in the semiconductor index, noting Nvidia’s transition from a holdout to succumbing to broader market pressures.

Jeff Mills (15:40):

• Long-Term Outlook: Believes Nvidia’s roadmap will sustain positive net present value (NPV) for customers, mitigating concerns about immediate capex reductions. However, acknowledges that a significant recession could still impact semiconductor performance negatively.

Notable Quotes:

• Christina Parts Nevels (02:21): “Jensen’s fulfilling his promise with new chips every year.”
• Guy Adami (05:29): “There might talk about a reacceleration of margins in the second half, but I just don’t see it happening.”
• Dan Nathan (06:09): “There’s nothing on the charts to tell you that this company is in a safe spot.”

3. Federal Reserve Decision and Market Implications

Time Stamp: 29:00 – 35:25

Jim Cramer’s Insights (31:45):

• Fed Expectations: Anticipates a "dovish pause," suggesting the Fed will hold rates steady but remain flexible based on economic indicators.
• Inflation Focus: Emphasizes that inflation expectations will be crucial in determining future policy adjustments.
• Global Allocations: Advises increased capital allocation in Europe due to policy uncertainties and potential growth opportunities outside the U.S.

Discussion Points:

• Rate Moves: Analysts debate whether the Fed will maintain current rates or signal potential cuts in response to economic slowdowns and tariff impacts.
• Market Reactions: Potential rate cuts could provide a boost to stock markets, but excessive cuts may indicate deeper economic issues.

Notable Quotes:

• Jim Cramer (32:05): “What we want to pay the most attention to is inflation expectations. That’s going to be the key.”
• Carter Braxton Worth (33:11): “Their weakness in the economy gives them more likelihood to cut rates and that’s good for stocks.”

4. Travel and Financial Sector Struggles

Time Stamp: 25:17 – 27:45

Melissa Lee reports on the declining performance of airlines and cruise lines due to decreased leisure demand. Stocks such as United, JetBlue, and American Airlines are falling by up to 3.5%, while cruise lines like Royal Caribbean experience drops exceeding 7%.

Impact on Financial Stocks:

• American Express: Down nearly 13% this month due to rising delinquency rates.
• Visa and MasterCard: Both down almost 8%, with Visa having plummeted around 30% since early March.

Analysis by Stacey Raskin (26:28):

• Sector Performance: Despite struggles, the Hotel Resort Hospitality sub-industry maintains relative strength within the broader S&P 500, suggesting selective resilience despite overall sector declines.

Notable Quotes:

• Guy Adami (26:24): “Delinquency rates have been ticking up. I think the market’s sniffing it out.”
• Stacey Raskin (26:28): “The relative performance of this highly discretionary area of the market to the entire S&P 500 consumer discretionary sector is still quite good.”

5. Metals Market Surge

Time Stamp: 29:11 – 48:24

Gold and Copper Rally:

• Gold: Hits a record high, up 15% this year, driven by trade war fears and geopolitical uncertainties.
• Copper: Outperforms other metals, rising nearly 25% and trading at its highest level since last May.

Insights from Dan Nathan (30:09):

• Industrial Demand: Copper’s surge indicates sustained industrial growth and global demand, although conflicting with potential signs of a global slowdown.
• Investment Opportunities: Suggests considering stocks like Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Southern Copper, and major miners like BHP and Rio Tinto.

Stacey Raskin (47:34):

• GDX Performance: Gold miners (GDX) have outperformed gold itself, returning to a five-year high and showing strong technicals.

Notable Quotes:

• Dan Nathan (30:22): “Copper's at all-time highs. Think of all those periods where we've had both industrial growth and global demand, and now copper decides to have all-time highs.”
• Stacey Raskin (47:34): “GDX is toying with the prospects of finally exceeding the highs of 2020.”

6. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) Shakeup

Time Stamp: 11:14 – 15:02

Breaking News by Megan Casella (11:14):

• Commissioner Firings: President Donald Trump has fired both Democratic commissioners on the FTC, Rebecca Slaughter and Alvara Bedoya, leaving only two Republican commissioners active.
• Implications: Raises questions about the FTC's functionality and potential policy shifts under a Republican majority.

Discussion Highlights:

• Regulatory Impact: Potential for increased deregulation and altered stance on mergers and acquisitions under the new majority.
• Market Reactions: Analysts speculate on how this shakeup will affect M&A activities and regulatory oversight in the tech sector.

Notable Quotes:

• Megan Casella (11:14): “Trump has fired both of those officials, leaving just two commissioners operating on the FTC at this point.”

7. Coal Sector Revival Attempt

Time Stamp: 36:49 – 48:24

Peabody Energy Rally:

• Stock Movement: Peabody Energy jumps over 6% following President Trump’s pledge to revive U.S. coal production.
• Industry Challenges: Despite regulatory rollbacks and potential grid reliability improvements, coal remains a dirty energy source with declining usage.

Insights from Megan Casella (38:10):

• Regulatory Environment: The current climate, focusing on grid reliability and higher power prices, may reduce regulatory resistance to coal revitalization efforts.
• Market Potential: Possibility of coal plant interconnections becoming valuable assets for faster energy distribution, benefiting companies like Peabody.

Discussion Points:

• Environmental Considerations: Acknowledgment that coal is inherently dirty, despite potential technological advancements like carbon capture.
• Market Speculation: Analysts debate the longevity and sustainability of coal stock rallies amidst ongoing environmental and economic trends.

Notable Quotes:

• Megan Casella (38:10): “We might see companies start to buy them up so that they can get power to the grid faster.”
• Guy Adami (39:34): “This is not a ridiculous, ridiculously expensive stock. So closing here at 14, you could see this thing in the mid-18-19 level for sure.”

8. SpaceX Dragon Capsule Splashdown

Time Stamp: 43:27 – 46:46

Melissa Lee and Christina Parts Nevels provide live coverage of the SpaceX Dragon capsule’s splashdown off the coast of Tallahassee, Florida. Astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams return safely after an extended mission, delivering an emotional and triumphant moment for both the crew and their families.

Highlights:

• Live Updates: Detailed visual and technical updates on the capsule’s descent and landing.
• Crew Safety: Confirmation of the astronauts' health and safety post-splashdown.

Notable Quotes:

• Christina Parts Nevels (44:26): “This is really such an incredible shot.”

9. Technical Analysis and Trader Insights

Time Stamp: 41:23 – 48:24

Chartmaster Segment:

• TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company): Carter Braxton Worth discusses TSM’s recent chart movements, noting its decline aligns with broader semiconductor trends.
• GDX and GDXJ: Stacey Raskin highlights the strong performance of gold miner ETFs, suggesting potential investment opportunities amidst metal surges.

Trader Recommendations:

• Dan Nathan: Advocates for international energy stocks and suggests strategic trimming of overvalued positions.
• Carter Braxton Worth: Recommends focusing on sectors showing relative strength, such as gold miners, while being cautious with coal and semiconductor stocks.

Notable Quotes:

• Carter Braxton Worth (42:32): “TSM is just starting to break trend, right. It was holding out and not succumbing just as all semis were.”
• Stacey Raskin (48:24): “I’d go with GDX and GDXJ. Small miners as well.”

Conclusion

The episode of "Fast Money" provides a comprehensive analysis of the day's critical financial events, with a particular focus on Nvidia’s GTC Conference and the broader implications of the Federal Reserve’s imminent decision. Market volatility is influenced by sector-specific challenges, regulatory changes, and macroeconomic indicators, all of which are dissected by the panel of expert traders and analysts. Additionally, the episode touches on emerging opportunities in the metals market and the coal sector, while delivering a human-interest story with the successful return of astronauts from space.

Final Notable Quotes:

• Melissa Lee (48:46): “Happy anniversary, Sarah.”
• Guy Adami (48:39): “We’ve all been doing this a long time, that competition comes from the place that you don’t expect it.”

Disclaimer: All opinions expressed in this summary are based on the "Fast Money" podcast transcript and do not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research or consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.