
Nvidia becomes the first company to cross the $4T market cap, as the chip giant helps fuel the Nasdaq to its own record high. How the semi surge is fueling the broader tech trade, and if the gains can continue. Plus Is it time for an Apple turnover? Why one Wall Street research firm thinks it’s time for Tim Cook to be replaced, and how a new chief could turn things around at the tech giant. Fast Money Disclaimer
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Melissa Lee
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Tim Seymour
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Melissa Lee
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Tim Seymour
Stay ahead.
Karen Feinerman
Live from the NASDAQ markets in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. A tech led rally. The NASDAQ jumping again today and Nvidia briefly becoming the first stock to hit the $4 trillion mark. Will the rally keep rolling for the red hot sector? We'll debate that and industrial gains Caterpillar shares jumping on a big bullish call and the stock lead its sector to even higher highs. Plus ad blocker the headline that had advertising firm WPP sinking today. We had to Sun Valley with VC Reid Hoffman to get his thoughts on the race. And is it time for a new CEO at Apple? One top analyst lays out his case for why the iPhone maker may want to shake things up now. I'm Melissa Lee come to you live from studio Be at the Nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Feinerman, Courtney Garcia and Steve Grasso. And we start off with that major milestone for Nvidia, the semi giant rising as much as two and three quarters of a percent today, becoming the first company in history to to hit a $4 trillion market cap. Though it finished off its highs, it did set a record closing value of 3.97 trillion topping the previous best hit by Apple back in December. The chip makers big breakout pushing both the Nasdaq composite and the broader chip trade to all time highs with Broadcom and KLA also hitting records. And the gains didn't stop there. Metta Microsoft Alphabet leading the Mag 7 thanks to bullish calls highlighting AI and earnings tailwinds Bitcoin, by the way, hitting its own record late in the session, crossing 112,000 for the first time. So what do all these moves tell us about where we are in the markets right now, Tim?
Tim Seymour
It tells us that the market is not only responding to momentum, but following the leadership of mega cap tech stocks who obviously, from a, from a mathematical perspective, pull the indices up. But I thought today was interesting because I think we have a lot of breadth out there too. I mean, if you look at what's going on, small caps are up over 1%. So they actually outperform today. If you look at cost industrials, which have been performing all year, we've. All we do seem to do is talk about banks. We have earnings coming up now next week and I think we're getting upon an earnings season. The fascinating part about this is Q1 earnings was really almost a pass. It was a pass on uncertainty. Now we still may have a lot of that uncertainty and maybe this is a market that right now is inclined to do that. But I like markets here. I like them in the absence of what has been some rockiness, we've got a Vix sub 15 which could change very quickly to depending on Washington. But in the absence of kind of status quo right now, markets want to go higher.
Courtney Garcia
Yeah, 16.
Tim Seymour
Sub 16. What did I say?
Courtney Garcia
Yeah, yeah, I thought it was 15. My bad.
Tim Seymour
I might have. And that, you know, it might be tomorrow.
Karen Feinerman
Then it's low and it came down.
Steve Grasso
It's low.
Courtney Garcia
It is low. And I think this to me is starting to get a little bit frothy again. Right. I mean, so the $4 trillion thing, that's kind of a, you know, we love brown numbers and any kind of time we could use any of the graphics with sort of the Roger Bannister of, of your sports trivia person. The $4 trillion mark probably will be broken again.
Tim Seymour
There it is.
Courtney Garcia
So that's all nice. I do think, you know, the market sort of got another charge when the Fed had a little bit of opening of that maybe there are some rate cuts there and I'm sort of coming around to that, that they should be cutting.
Karen Feinerman
All right.
Rob Wertheimer
And I think that is what's driving a lot of this. That if we are going to see the Fed cutting rates this year, which a lot of people are expecting at this point, and you're seeing growth is actually continue to be strong. A lot of people thought growth was going to fall off a cliff. It's not. You're starting to see inflation coming down. That's A really good thing for the markets and it's a really good setup here for the second half of the year. And there's still a lot of cash on the sidelines.
Karen Feinerman
Right.
Rob Wertheimer
And as you're, if you're going to see the shorter term rates come down, a lot of that money can make its way back in. And that's where you're seeing a lot of these retail investors are rushing into these like, riskier, riskier areas of the markets. They're going into your bitcoins. They're going into things like your Nvidia is your. These things that maybe are getting expensive, maybe frothy, to your point, but I don't know if the, like, the FOMO trade is done there yet. But, you know, what you should be doing is broadening out to Tim's point. But I don't know if these trades are actually over at this point.
Melissa Lee
You know, the obvious is risk on and the not so obvious is that this was the biggest canary in the coal mine for tariffs and trade. So did they ring the bell for the all clear months ago, weeks ago? It looks like they did. I mean, look at the one that's in the target zone. 12 and a half percent of sales from China. 4 and a half billion write down. And the stock off to the races. I still wouldn't buy it. Here's the problem. Customer concentration. And all of those customers are looking for other ways to develop their own chips. That didn't hurt Nvidia to go from 90 up to where it is now. But I cannot buy it now. Frothy, Karen said. I think the, the point, if Karen, I shouldn't say that you're, you're a value girl, so you have a different opinion of frothy. I just think that what makes in video a winner in the AI space is going to be chipped away at.
Karen Feinerman
Okay, when.
Tim Seymour
Yeah, I mean, that's fair, except for I don't think anybody's even close. And I feel like that's what we've learned over the last few weeks, which is, is that the valuation is not expensive relative to the growth that we have and even the foreseeable. I understand that we've had these, these massive quarterly almost impossibilities in terms of a bar being set higher. But, you know, all we heard out of AMD is, is the 350 and the 400 chips, which aren't even on. You know, they're not even in the stratosphere. So if anything, you're getting excited about where they sit in terms of data center and some of the broader, you know, platform parts. But I, I hear you on that, but I got to finish this. Well, I was just going to say that the rally in Nvidia has come with a lot of pessimism around it that's been reinforced by a member. They were last of the party in terms of earnings. We have had a. And I talk about this sovereign, sovereign AI tour that they went on with the administration. And I think again, sovereigns are behind the private sector. They've got a lot to do there.
Karen Feinerman
So.
Melissa Lee
Yeah, so also this is a stock that went from 152 down to 86 January to April. So this is not one that hasn't had hiccups along the way. So this is not a story that has only been lower left, upper right. I think you're due for another one of those pullbacks.
Karen Feinerman
Okay. I mean I would, I would even argue that those hiccups are the reason why this rally can go higher. That despite the deep seek scare, you know, despite all this. What did we learn from Microsoft recently from that report out of the information that it is stepping back away. Right, exactly. Away from making its own chip, that it may be harder than thought to do that. And also some of these specialized chips can actually coexist with the Nvidia chips that it's not necessarily a replacement for them, it's for their specialized needs.
Courtney Garcia
So let me just add what. So I'm always long. Right. And I'm not inclined to sell things. It is. But I am inclined to hedge with the VIX here. I'm inclined to buy some protection or in a name like in video where I do feel like it's getting a little frothy. But I still want to be there, sell some upside calls because I just. We talk about all the time. If demand is still there, then I think that that is the single most important underpinning of the story. And I think demand absolutely is still there. It's going to peak. The stock is going to peak well before demand is. But I don't know when that is.
Karen Feinerman
Yeah, I mean, I think that part of the conversation that we're having now is this sort of conversation that we've had every night where we've seen record highs. And that is what do you pay for the performance that you're seeing in financials, in Wal Mart, in Nvidia, in the names that are actually delivering, that are executing, that are relatively defensive compared to some of the other areas of the market. But what are you willing to because we're reaching areas where, you know, it can be. The argument can be made that all of these sectors that I mentioned are expensive at this point. Yeah.
Rob Wertheimer
And I think you have to look at where growth is going forward because I think if the economy isn't going to be strong moving forward or we're going to see growth slow down, then these, these valuations can't be justified. But if we are going to continue to see growth hold in there, I think certain amount can and I don't think the entire market is expensive like specifically the Mag 7 is where it's becoming expensive is can't stock right now, it's becoming frothy to your point. But there are plenty of other areas whether you're looking at the other 493, whether you're looking at foreign investment. You like to talk about your mega trade all the time.
Tim Seymour
Yes, I do.
Rob Wertheimer
Even small caps like relative to history are really not as expensive as they should be. So I think there's plenty of areas to look here and I don't want to get out of the Mag 7 as expensive as they are. You still want to be there, you just want to be over. Over concentrated.
Tim Seymour
I just think that we do the show every night and it's all the better depends on your trading horizon. And so here we are talking about today's market. We're talking about the dynamics that we have around us. And I'm not here to tell you that I think the economy in the fourth quarter necessarily is going to be gangbusters that the market is cheap. I'm telling you that the dynamics we have around semiconductors, the breadth in the market and the fact that I think we've seen reassertion of strength in the top of the leaderboard both by Nvidia and Microsoft which are the two most important companies in the world as far as I can tell. And the fact that matters maybe Apple which has. We're going to have a nice chat about Apple. But I think Apple has is been interesting on top of a market where the broader part of that market so the breadth that we want to see and financials are very important. So the again put it in the context of sure, there's all kinds of bad things out there. There's going to be a bunch of people talking about this, the Citibank extreme greed and fear and all these different measures of euphoria. But I think as I look to the market that we have today in the month of July, which is a great seasonal time to own equities I'm not too worried about it today.
Karen Feinerman
All right, here's another sector hitting record highs. Industrials among the leaders today. Caterpillar up 2%, hitting its highest level since January. Melius Research upgrading the stock to a buy earnings writing that AI driven power demand could be a game changer for the company. Robert, the analyst behind the call, joins us here on set. His updated price target, $500 is a street high according to Factset. Rob, great to see you. So this is actually a tech adjacent name. An adjacent name and that's why you like cat.
Reid Hoffman
There's a change in the world coming. I mean the wave is just hard to grasp and that really the demand just being pushed through and power and grid is stunning and it's, it's creating new opportunities that didn't exist before.
Karen Feinerman
I think most people think of CAT and they think of big machines that digger old economy. Exactly. But we're talking about turbines, we're talking about things that power the energy trade.
Reid Hoffman
Yes. So CAT has always had a huge engine business, but they go into big industrial things. They go into mining trucks and frac suites and you know, tugboats and ferries and just massive amounts of power, but not on the grid. They've also done backup power in the past and still do, but in more niche applications. And what's changing now is the grid is under strain. So you know, there's pockets where you don't have power. There's just the demand is massive and so people are putting in their own power plants at data centers. And so the whole world has changed and that's creating a new opportunity.
Courtney Garcia
So a name like this I think of historically very cyclical. Right. Is now trading at a market ish. Multiple me a tad under right. And it used to be that they would, you know, that multiple would change dramatically. Is that phenomenon gone or how do you think about that?
Reid Hoffman
You're 100% right. And there's a couple of things that have changed. And CAT has become a better and better managed company with more and more aftermarkets. They've tried to steady out some of that cyclicality. You also just haven't seen a mining upcycle in 15 years. And so I don't, I don't think that we've had a bubble in Cat in a long, long time. So one answer your question is we're at a position where you worry a little bit less about things falling apart and a little bit more about the upside and missing it.
Tim Seymour
Rob, how about the rest of the mining cycle? And I guess I know we're here talking about caterpillar, but are there peers are the Kubotas of the world? I mean, where else could you be excited? Is this a lateral trade as well? And copper has hit all time highs. So if you're mining almost anything in the industrial metals or in the precious metals world, it seems like they've got spot prices that say go out and just mine as much as you can.
Reid Hoffman
100% they do. The miners have been disciplined in capex nonetheless. I think you saw 15 years ago, a bunch of mining management teams turned over and was like, hey, we're not going to spend the capex in the way that we used to. So we haven't seen that kick off on the equipment side yet. You know, Komatsu is your other major player and Cummins provides engines to the industry. So there are ancillary plays. But that cycle hasn't kicked off yet. But again, some of the same engines go into data centers and so that's where you have the explosive demand.
Karen Feinerman
I know that it's early, but when you think about a 50% tariff on copper, for instance, there's a general push to have everything made in the United States dug up in the United States. And so do you think about that as spurring new mine development or is it just way too early? Because we haven't had a new mine, a copper mine in the US for more than a decade or so.
Reid Hoffman
And to your point, developing a new mine will take you 10, 15, 20 years. I mean, there's environmental stuff that maybe we have a little bit more of in the US than other places, but anywhere in the world is going to take you 10 or 15 years. I do think there's been a change in the world, you know, in reshoring, in supply chains, you know, partly spurred by President Trump's actions this term, but also the first term. And so you're seeing more investment in the U.S. mining is a slow one though.
Melissa Lee
So when you, when you look at that to that point, so roughly half is international, roughly half is, it's probably a little more weighted towards North America. So that makes you more bullish to everything that the, the other, the others have said about Trump building up building America mine in America, everything being pulled back to America. Is any part of this government dependent on dollars? Because obviously that's been a very big stick point where we've seen a lot of companies pull a lot of revenue from the governments.
Reid Hoffman
Not, not so much directly. I mean, look, I do think that the change over the last eight to 10 years, including President Trump, then President Biden was to direct more investment with different policyholds to the North American market. So some of that might drive construction, you know, the infrastructure bill and things like that. But in a general sense, the soaring markets are driven by the tech giants, you know, have lots of cash and need to invest it.
Courtney Garcia
While I've got you here on an adjacent question, United Rentals, which is in my acronym in some way or another, I think you're the street high, are you not?
Reid Hoffman
We usually are, yeah.
Courtney Garcia
Yes. Okay. So what's your feeling? I mean, it's adjacent to CAT feeling.
Tim Seymour
Yeah.
Reid Hoffman
So it's been one of our favorite stories over the last seven or eight years. In my job, you, you often like do all the work and find out you agree with everybody else. This is one where we disagreed. We thought it was a phenomenal growth story that was underappreciated and they continue to churn out. So construction equipment, other equipment rental in the US Growth industry, growth leader, essentially like a, like a Walmart of decades ago, just expanding and creating new opportunities. It's fantastic, I think.
Karen Feinerman
Rob, thanks for coming by.
Reid Hoffman
Great, thank you.
Karen Feinerman
Rob Wertheimer of Milius. What do you think?
Rob Wertheimer
Actually, I like this name a lot and I think you bring up a lot of really good points here. This is a company that is very cyclical, which again, if the economy is going to improve, is something that you want to bet on. But they've also really worked on making it less cyclical so they get a lot more service revenue. They've really been working towards that and are actually very on track to meet their goal. Which means even if it's, you know, the economy doesn't hold up as well as you hope, they're actually going to be a little less cyclical than they have historically. But I absolutely think there's a name that you want to be in right now.
Tim Seymour
When I look at CAT relative to itself, which is one way to do this, it's trading about 20% expensive to its 5 year P E forward. P E is trading about the same to its, to its 10 year, which given the opportunities that Rob talked about, given where we are with the electric grid, given where we are in terms of the market overall, that's not expensive. Where Deere, which is sometimes also thrown in the same boat, at least if you're looking at comps, is somewhere around 40 times. So a chart back to the financial crisis shows that the cat's done. You know, who needs bitcoin when you can have cat that's done 1500% in that time. I mean, it's an incredible 15 to 20 year chart as it is. That doesn't look that expensive to me here.
Karen Feinerman
All right, let's get to a news alert now. President Trump sending more letters detailing new tariff rates, including a Levy on Brazil. CNBC's Megan Cassell's got the details. Megan.
Megan Cassella
Hey, Mel, that Brazil letter came out just about 30 minutes ago and it's different from all the others we've seen this week. This is the steepest tariff we've seen so far at 50%. And it's the first country to receive a letter that was not previously set to face a so called reciprocal tariff. The US runs a rare trade surplus with Brazil, so there is no trade deficit to fix here. In the letter, President Trump says the tariff is in part due to Brazil's treatment of former President Bolsonaro. He calls that a witch hunt and due to what Trump calls insidious attacks on free elections and on the free speech rights of Americans. Trump also says that in addition to the 50% tariff, he's instructing his US Trade Representative to launch a Section 301 investigation into Brazil. That's something that will look into unfair trade practices, specifically this time over digital trade. And that could lead to further tariffs down the road as well. So we are in new territory here. These are tariffs against a country that the US runs a surplus with over political reasons, not economic ones. Brazil is in the US's top 20 trading partners, but it's not huge. About 1.3% of all US imports come from Brazil. Separately, the president did earlier send 7 other countries tariff letters, all to countries we do very little trade with, all matching the same format as before. So you can see him here, the Philippines, Iraq, Sri Lanka, all of them facing tariff rates between 20 and 30% because of their trade deficits unless they strike a deal by August 1st. Melissa?
Karen Feinerman
All right, Megan, thank you. Megan Casella, Immediately we saw a reaction in the EWC, the ETF for Brazil as well as the real, which declined a quick 2%. Got to go to the ambassador for the trade on this one.
Tim Seymour
And everything else other than these headlines tells you you want to own Brazil. And it's been the right trade this year, which is up almost 30%. And the dynamics not only around the commodities that we've just hit on, including copper and iron ore and whatnot, but I think some of the consumption trends that have been just fine, weaker US rates, weaker US dollar, you're buying Brazil. Typically, the fact that politics and really messaging that we had not heard anything about ever before around Brazil have, have kind of crept into this is. It's just hard to really understand what's driving policy here. So to the extent that if you want to be along the Brazil trade, I do think you don't have to, you know, you don't have to necessarily blow off these headlines. You know, whether these headlines are ones that are really deep rooted or whether there's somebody that has a bone to pick. The philosophical differences here are not ones I think we've heard a lot about. And, and I would be cautious.
Karen Feinerman
Is this a concern for market participants in general that the reasons for the tariffs have changed and so it becomes a lot less predictable in terms of how tariffs are imposed, when they're imposed and why they're imposed if they can just be done because you don't like how somebody's being treated in another country. That's hard to handicap.
Melissa Lee
Hard to handicap, but not. We're not breaking new ground, right? I mean, we don't trade with Iran, we don't trade with North Korea. We don't trade.
Karen Feinerman
I mean Brazil just as an example of a, you know, yeah, I don't like what you're doing. So I'm going to put a 25% tariff on you or 30%.
Tim Seymour
Brazil is not North Korea or Iran. I mean, you know, this is a country that, that largely, I think we've had very solid trade relations with and at times has been a really important timing though.
Melissa Lee
The commodities pricing goes into it too, right? Surplus. If the commodities price goes down and equipment prices go up, we're going to have an imbalance or they're going to have an imbalance with us. So a lot of this is the product mix.
Tim Seymour
I think some of this is absolutely a gathering in Rio de Janeiro over the weekend of these BRIC countries that aren't just the BRIC countries, it's all the other countries that didn't just call out tariffs, they call out unilateral dynamics in terms of military action. And it took place in Rio de Janeiro and Brazil was very outspoken over the weekend.
Karen Feinerman
He did not like that. Coming up, wheels up for Boeing. The stock hitting 52 week highs now up more than 75% from April lows. The next move for that name next year. And deal making over breakfast the news that had shares of serial giant Kellogg soaring after hours. Do not go anywhere. Fast money's back in tune.
Melissa Lee
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Tim Seymour
McDonald's hot crispy fries right as they're.
Melissa Lee
Being scooped into the carton? And time just stands still?
Karen Feinerman
Bottom up. We've got a news alert on a potential deal in the cereal aisle. Pippa Stevens got the details. Pippa.
Megan Cassella
Hey, Melissa, check out shares of W.K. kellogg because they are surging almost 50% on a report that Ferrero is nearing a deal to buy the company for about $3 billion. That's according to the Wall Street Journal. The privately held Italian maker of Ferrero Rocher chocolates and Nutella could finalize the deal as soon as this week, the Journal said, citing people familiar with the matter. Now, W.K. kellogg is the maker of Fruit Loops, Frosted Flakes and Rice Krispies, and became a standalone company in 2023 after Kellogg spun out the cereal maker. Once again, those shares up some 50% here. Alyssa.
Karen Feinerman
All right, Pippa. Thank you. Pippa Stevens Cereal is hot again, apparently, at least in the M and A space.
Courtney Garcia
Karen well, just remember when this, this company was spun off, Kellogg's and Ken View and they both traded disastrously, cut in half disastrously. Neither of them now will be independent. Right. Remember Kellanova to Hershey and that's it. It's hard to believe that was like an American brand from, I don't know, more than 100 years.
Tim Seymour
I'm guessing Fruit Loops, that toucan. Sam I'm trying to. Yeah, that's a big loss for us. I mean, I really, I think we need to I just wonder when you see this kind of a move and the premium and where the stock was trading, I mean, you know, where's the multiple here and is it's surprising. My guess is I'm, you know, I'm not spending a lot of time looking at the strategic interest in the cereal sector. But this is surprising on valuation because this stock wasn't cheap yesterday.
Karen Feinerman
All right, meantime, BOEING Flying to 52 week highs popping more than 5% at its peak. The jump comes a day after the company announced itself best monthly delivery numbers since December 2023. Investors also awaiting a preliminary report on the deadly Air India crash which killed 260 people in June, that expected to be released in the coming days. But it's like that stock drop on the back of that crash never happened. Court.
Rob Wertheimer
Yeah, there's like preliminary reports that are saying that that was not a design issue and I think that's part of the reason that Boeing is trading better today. But this is a preliminary report. I think you do need to wait for the actual report to come out here because this is something we've seen with Boeing where we are hopeful that they're getting over this hump and then they're not getting over the hump because some other news is coming out. So they have really made a lot of strides here over the last several months. I mean this stock is doing really well. I do think we need to get through that. We need to see if they continue to gain some market share from Airbus. But hopefully they're gaining that market share back here.
Melissa Lee
And to Cord's point, they weren't, they didn't do anything that left them culpable in that crash. So that was the major thing that rallied the second stock. Then you have the economy doing better, then you have deliveries up, then you have airlines that are doing better that need more jets. And most importantly you have tariffs sort of going by the wayside, which makes it easier for other countries to buy their planes. And least if not, they're a duopoly and that's what keeps the stock up.
Karen Feinerman
And it is the, the being banned being bad. Yeah, I mean are bland.
Tim Seymour
Seems to be a day when we're, we're really pounding the table on our own acronyms, Karen.
Karen Feinerman
Yeah.
Courtney Garcia
Being carved, I think.
Karen Feinerman
Or the aerospace.
Courtney Garcia
Aerospace.
Tim Seymour
Well, a couple of things for Boeing that I think you are starting to see. The analyst community, there was a, there was an upgrade today by Susquehanna. I think the analyst community is coming around to where they can be. And again, this move in the stock now puts it back above where it was before that unfortunate and really sad event which again, yes, Courtney's right. Those headlines this morning, no manufacturing or design flaw. At least that's early indications from investigators.
Karen Feinerman
All right. There's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next is home.
Melissa Lee
Where the gains are Shares of housing stocks jumping today? Are they building the foundation for more strength to come? The traders debate plus time running out for Tim Cook How a C suite shakeup could re energize the recently stagnating tech titan. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this. Say you've always wanted to take a spontaneous trip to the Caribbean. Here's the thing. If you get smart with your money.
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You can do things like that.
Melissa Lee
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Melissa Lee
Go to square.com go/fast money to learn more. That's sq u a r e.com/go/fast Money Square. Meet you there.
Karen Feinerman
Welcome back to Fast Money. Check out the strength in the housing trade. Zillow and the homebuilders all posting outsized gains. New data showing mortgage applications jumped more than percent last week from the week before. Homebuyers taking advantage of a brief drop in interest rates. By the way, the chartmaster Carter Worth, he just put out a note in the last few minutes saying that for the first time in a long time it is right to buy the homebuilders. Karen actually flagged these moves, but to quick clarify, I want to make a.
Courtney Garcia
Quick I said can view, which is a spin off of health care and beauty. It's Kello Nova, a different made up name that was the Kellogg thing and that was purchased by Mars. And I knew when I said it wasn't quite right. Anyway, thanks for letting me correct that. Yes.
Karen Feinerman
But homebuilders, you pointed out today in.
Courtney Garcia
Terms of the surge, I do well. So you know, that's great. More, more people looking to get a mortgage. But rates, the idea of maybe rates moving, that would certainly be helpful. The space is sort of, sort of not expensive. And for me, Zillow, it's got that asset light model. Once we get more transactions, I think it's really going to hum.
Melissa Lee
The housing inventory is up 31 and a half percent year over year and that was as of May. So that was a big thing. Why existing home sales were lagging behind new home sales because there was just nothing on the market and people owned a mortgage, not a home. And to Karen's point, fifth straight week where the 30 year mortgage has dropped, there's signs of light at the end of the tunnel. Mortgage rates in theory should be dropping and people are getting excited about it and willing to move.
Karen Feinerman
Coming up is a time for Tim Cook to step aside at Apple. Our next guest is making the case for CEO switch how a new chief could put the greenback in the green. Green back in Apple stock, not the green back when fast Money returns. Welcome back to FAST money. Stocks climbing in today's session. The Dow jumping more than 200 points. The S&P 500 up 6. 10 of a percent. And the NASDAQ notching a fresh record close up nearly 1%. Merck inking a deal to buy UK based Verona Pharma for about $10 billion. The company looking to diversify beyond its blockbuster cancer treatment keytruda, which faces patent expiration in 2028. And shares of ad giant WPP dropping more than 18% today. The company slashing its profit guidance citing a loss of big clients, customer spending cuts and a new business slowdown in June. And Costco on the move after hours, the Bulk retailer reporting 8% sales growth in June compared to the same period last year. Talk about the ones that we call expensive. Often Costco falls into that bucket, Tim, but they deliver.
Tim Seymour
It sure does. I think they're, they're finding ways to become more efficient. I mean that margins increase. All we do is talk about the margin improvement at Wal Mart and I think that's fair given their E commerce and a lot of their investment in technology. But I think Costco deserves, and the market, like the market got there a lot for four. I did. I mean, I just, I haven't owned this one for the reasons we've talked about, but somehow I'm not really that reluctant to, to hold Wal Mart, which is just as expensive. And I like Wal Mart here, so.
Karen Feinerman
All right. Meantime, a new note from LightShed Partners suggests Apple may need a major leadership shakeup. The company announcing a CEO transition last night. But analyst Walt Pisa says a more disruptive change at the CEO level may be in order. Walt joins us now with more. Well, great to have you with us. I'm wondering what sort of reaction you get from investors. Apple stock is sort of languishing here, doesn't have a clear strategy. What's the main reason why you think that Tim Cook should be out?
Walt Pisa
First of all, it wasn't much of a reaction at all because I think investors have already been talking about this at the institutional level. I think a lot of times you don't hear from sell side analysts. If you just listen to any Apple's earnings call and you hear all the, you know, the very positive comments and the easy questions that get asked on these earnings call, earnings call, they're never challenging a management team. But when you look at the institutional investors that could potentially own this stock, you know, this is not really a new concept. And certainly, you know, even in the world of tech media, this has been something that's, that's been discussed more recently.
Karen Feinerman
Who would that person be? Who would that new CEO be? I mean, we mentioned the CEO transition. Apple said it's part of a long plan, succession plan. I don't know if you buy that or not. Would it be an internal candidate? External candidates in the past have not served Apple well.
Walt Pisa
I mean, it's interesting. This, this CEO transition is really what triggered me to write this note. I wasn't expecting to talk about Tim Cook today, but when I saw some headlines today of other analysts talking about, you know, oh, this is not going to be disruptive to Apple, I'm like, well, wait a minute, you know, there should be, they should be looking to disrupt the company because of the position that they put themselves by not having new products and facing this kind of a transition that everyone has to, has to deal with in terms of, to answer your question, Melissa, like, I don't know, but I think Brian Chesky of Airbnb touched on this a little bit, you know, referring to like a product focused CEO. So maybe that should be a follow up note. For us, obviously we'll solicit feedback from investors and others in terms of who are the, the great product focused CEOs that are out there that could lead Apple into this next new era of AI.
Courtney Garcia
Well, it's Karen, thanks for being on. So if we were to read that Tim Cook will be stepping down at some point, do you think the stock would pop a fair amount on that or how do you think it be received?
Walt Pisa
I mean, I literally got an email from one of our institutional investor clients who was questioning that that the stock may in fact go up because of this kind of discussion within large institutional investors about, you know, Apple's future. So I think, you know, frankly it's positive depending on, you know, whether the board had someone in place that gave investors, you know, immediate confidence that hey, we're going to strike a new path here. We have a, you know, a plan in place that regardless of how, how I may disrupt us in our, you know, our primary market, which is iPhones, that someone else gives maybe a new confidence in terms of a game plan going forward.
Rob Wertheimer
Hey, Waltz Courtney here. So I think clearly Apple needs a change and that's really where this discussion is coming from. So one change could be the CEO. The other change is clearly they're behind on their story and they really need to get back on the ball there. I think what would be more important to the stock right now if they actually had some sort of substantial AI strategy here. Like that came out and either said that they had something or they're acquiring another company who does, or they change the CEO like which in your mind is actually going to be more important for the stock.
Walt Pisa
I mean, they effectively fooled investors last year at wwdc, making them believe that there was a path to AI which when none existed. We all know the state of Siri today. I know it's been bantered about perplexity perhaps being an option to acquire. That's not a, you know, an LLM in the sense of ChatGPT. Right? This is a wrapper for existing, existing LMS. But frankly it's a better situation than they're in today. And you can't just snap your fingers. This is like the concept of moving production from China to India. You just don't snap your fingers and all of a sudden, you know, change your production overnight. Same thing with, I look at the capex that Facebook and Google and others have invested in AI and then look at the capex that Apple has invested in which has been non existent. So you just don't overnight create An AI strategy that's homegrown. And then alternatively, perplexity is, you know, a possible solution that maybe, you know, pushes them forward and gives them a, a starting point that's that at least that they can build off of.
Karen Feinerman
We're going to, we're going to run out of time. We're actually out of time. But I got to ask you this question, Walton, and that is, why does Apple have to build its own LLM? Why can't it license it the way it did Search? Why can't Apple focus on being an amazing delivery mechanism for the best LM out there, whatever it may be at any given point in time?
Walt Pisa
I think that's certainly a possible strategy, Melissa. We just have to see it, right? We, they talked about the integration even on the last wwdc and I think earnings call, Tim Cook talked about, oh, we've had this great integration with Chatbots. No, you haven't. Like, if I want to get access to ChatGPT through Siri, it is not an easy integration. They want to try and maintain this, protect privacy and all the information that's on your phone and at the same time open you up to the powers that these, these existing LLMs have. And they just haven't been successful in doing so. Maybe that is the path forward if they can execute properly.
Karen Feinerman
All right, Walt, great to see you. Thank you.
Walt Pisa
Thanks.
Karen Feinerman
Interesting piece out from LightShed today. What would Apple be worth if it said, you know what, we're not in building an AI path, we are into licensing it and focus on our handsets.
Tim Seymour
Boy, I think that's interesting and I think one of the most interesting days for Apple shareholders in the last, I guess, you know, when was the deep seat announcement? Right, so, so the January. Yeah, so, so that was the day that people said this is good news for Apple. Right. Because it was a case where first of all, significantly less cost and infrastructure put into, into AI. And that infrastructure is something that Apple just hasn't. And you know, we're talking about this on a day when open I released a web browser that's a challenge to Google Chrome. And if anybody. And again, I don't. We've had this conversation too. I'm not saying that, that Google's toast, but I'm saying that Apple's the one. At least to me it's the conduit for people to integrate into AI. I don't know what they're going to do without their, their iPhones.
Melissa Lee
I think Apple ultimately be a winner. It's lagged for two years That's a long time in the mart, in the marketplace. But if I were to say Steve Jobs, how was he as a CEO? You would say he was excellent. He was the best guy ran Apple. His annualized returns were 21%. Tim Cooks are 26%. I think we're hitting him a little too hard here.
Karen Feinerman
Coming up, the latest from Sun Valley, where media moguls and tech titans are gathering to tackle AI, M&A and more. Greylock partner and LinkedIn co founder Reid Hoffman will join us next to lay out what he sees next in the air race and what he's hearing at the conference. Fast Money is back in two. Welcome back to Fast Money. The Sun Valley media conference continues in Idaho. CNBC's Julie Borson is sitting down with LinkedIn co founder Reid Hoffman. He's currently a partner at VC from Greylock Partners. Julia, take it away.
J
Thanks so much, Melissa. Reid, thanks so much for joining me here in Sun Valley. I want to start off with a topic that I'm hearing a lot of conversation about, which is the AI talent. More you've heard how Metta and OpenAI are in this talent where they're competing with Microsoft, which you're on the board of, along with Apple and Amazon and Google for AI talent and also just competing in this AI race in general. Which of these companies do you think is best positioned to win the AI race?
Steve Grasso
Well, I think the good thing about the AI race is I think there will be a lot of winners, both of startups and large companies. Now, the talent race to your average American looks crazy. The amount of money you're paying individuals in order to do this. Well, if you think about, if you invent the thing that essentially, for example, in my own startup, Manus is trying to cure cancer that transforms industries. And if you think this individual is the one to do it, then it begins to get more economic, irrational. So now in that competition, what I think we're going to see is I actually think the majority of them will win some. The question is which ones win more and which ones win less.
J
There's been so much money poured in to the giant startups like OpenAI no longer a startup, as well as the amount that's being spent on AI by the tech giants. Is it possible for true startups to compete now in this, in this AI competition?
Steve Grasso
I think it's relatively straightforward. Now, I say that of course, as a venture capitalist is doing these kinds of investments, but I think, look, the I'm going to build a $50 billion computer in order to compete on a frontier model, that's challenging for a startup. I'm not sure if there's room for any startup to possibly do that now. However, applications and also going into different areas like you know, cancer discovery or going into, you know, kind of like, oh, I mean, I'm going to do this education thing. They're all focused on coding. I'm going to do this and that kind of getting integrated into the workflow process, doing new kind of consumer apps, those kinds of things. Still lots of room for.
J
You mentioned man as AI, the health tech company you founded, you've also invested in another AI health company. How focused are you on AI and health right now and will we see other investments in this space? Who are, which companies are you disrupting with these startups?
Steve Grasso
Well, so, so I mean, I don't necessarily think disruption, although maybe it'll happen. It's either trying to seek to do so or seeking not to do so. In the case of Manus AI, the idea is to create a kind of a drug discovery engine that creates many more molecules that could then be. Because cancer is not one cancer thing. There's lots and lots of different forms of cancer. And how do you attack each one in the right way? That kills the cancer but doesn't kill the patient. That's the challenge. And so, you know, obviously that'll have huge pharma implications, but we might very well be partnering with pharma companies. That's part of the reason I was like, well, I'm not clear that we're not amplifying versus disrupting. The other one is ultrasound and using AI to figure out exactly how to get very low frequency ultrasound to the exact right place in the brain. And the thing that's amazing about this and AI is what unlocks it because you're getting this very low energy into just right refraction through the skull is that it creates a new tool where the only tools we have currently on brain things are very blunt, they're pharmacological or they're like, you know, TMS stimulation. It's like a boom as opposed to, oh, let's just touch this very gently. And surgery obviously being its own huge issue and that's part of the reason I invested in it.
J
Very interesting. Now you of shifting gears been one of the biggest individual donors to the Democratic party and we just heard that Elon Musk is starting his own political party. Sam Altman, who you've been close with over the years, explained to me why he feels politically homeless. What are you seeing right now, in terms of the political landscape, what do you think of Elon Musk's new party?
Steve Grasso
Well, I'm very sympathetic to the core cause, which is don't try to add so much to the deficit that you'll add 2.2.4 trillion in a deficit by I think it's 2034. Right. And so like, don't do that, you know, precisely. Kind of the question is, is one of the biggest line items in the federal budget today is the debt service, is the interest rate, is the credit card payment? We're paying on debt? So that's a. I'm very sympathetic to the cause. You know, the third party is something that, you know, has been tried a number of times and dies all over the place. I mean, you know, some of us are old enough to remember Ross Perot and, you know, and other vectors are doing it. And so it doesn't strike me as necessarily the best strategy for that. But I think that, I think it's important to try to focus on the debt.
J
And final question, are you seeing more folks in the tech ecosystem leave allegiances with the Trump administration now that Elon Musk has broken up with the Trump administration?
Steve Grasso
I see more hesitancy about the Trump administration. I don't think it's because of Ellen. I think it's because of the tariff policy and the basic, the instability and volatility around business.
J
Well, we're certainly watching that tariff policy. Unfortunately, we're going to have to leave it there.
Karen Feinerman
We're out of time.
J
Thanks so much for joining us here in Sun Valley. Reid Hoffman, Melissa and guys, back over to you.
Karen Feinerman
All right, thank you so much, Julia. It's interesting to see where Reid Hoffman is betting right now in terms of AI, not the developers of lms. But how do you use that in order to actually basically cut costs? I mean, we're talking about speeding up the process of drug discovery.
Courtney Garcia
Right. The acceleration. That's really exciting. I mean, for, you know, I know Parkinson's is one of, yes, very much interested in doing so many, so many. But he's talking about them working together, which makes perfect sense. I really that that is something that will be extraordinary if we can decrease those timespans.
Karen Feinerman
Coming up, a battle brewing. Starbucks China business getting some looks and look and makes moves here into the United States. We are putting the Java giants to the test. Next, more Fast Money into. Welcome back to Fast Money. Starbucks sipping on more than 30 bids for its China business with a valuation as high as $10 billion. The list of private equity bidders include Carlyle Group, KKR and Luckin Coffee's majority shareholder, Centurion Capital. Now Lucky and China's largest coffee chain recently opened its first location stateside right here in New York City. So we thought we put the offerings to the test with our resident coffee aficionado, Starbucks drinker Timothy Seymour, who's got both a Luck in and a Starbucks. In which cups?
Tim Seymour
Which is which, by the way, they laughed at me when I said I wanted half and half for my coffee because I'm like real men put half and half in their coffee. All right, so this one says number one, this one says number two. And I'm going to tell you which is which. Ready? Okay, here we go.
Steve Grasso
Number one.
Tim Seymour
Earthy, bold aroma. Okay, that feels like my old friend.
Melissa Lee
And you're going to tell us which is the number two.
Tim Seymour
Okay, that was number one. Okay, number two. Distinct but watery, less bold. Okay, here we go. Number one, this is absolutely Starbucks. Number two, this is absolutely Luckin.
Karen Feinerman
I love how you're sure. You're so sure.
Tim Seymour
You're so positive.
Karen Feinerman
It is the opposite.
Tim Seymour
Never, never.
Melissa Lee
If you had the creamer, the creamer would have cleared the whole thing up. He would have been able to.
Karen Feinerman
But this is one of the reasons why Starbucks is having a difficult time in China. The growth of the local brands. And here it is Luck in here in the United States. What's going to happen here?
Rob Wertheimer
Yeah, I mean, honestly, when I go for coffee, I don't go to Starbucks. I like their drinks, but their coffee itself, which a lot of people say, like, is not what you go for. And so, yeah, you try to go to the local coffee shops and I think it'll be interesting to see what happens when they come here. It's now a just different, newer coffee shop, but they do have a real problem with that, so it's something they got to watch.
Karen Feinerman
Up next, as Tim drinks his coffee. Final drinks, final trade. Tim.
Tim Seymour
Yeah. I like Reid's comments on Amplify versus Disrupt, Citibank.
Karen Feinerman
Karen.
Courtney Garcia
Yes, I like Boeing. I know it's had a run up, but I do think we're early in their turnaround court.
Rob Wertheimer
Also industrials, we talked about Caterpillar. I like this name here. I think you want to own it.
Melissa Lee
Steve D. Wave, the best quantum computing company out there.
Karen Feinerman
Thanks for watching Fast Mad Money with Jim Cramer. Search Watch Right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer@ Capella University, learning the right skills could make a difference. That's why our business programs teach you relevant skills you can take from the course room to the workplace. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at Capella. Eduardo.
CNBC's "Fast Money" Episode Summary: "Nvidia’s Record $4 Trillion Market Cap… And Time For An Apple Turnover?" (July 9, 2025)
Hosted by Melissa Lee with insights from a panel of top traders including Tim Seymour, Karen Feinerman, Courtney Garcia, Steve Grasso, and guest analyst Rob Wertheimer, the July 9, 2025 episode of CNBC's "Fast Money" delves into significant movements in the tech sector, trade policies, stock market dynamics, and corporate leadership changes.
Timestamp: 02:36
The episode kicks off with a major focus on Nvidia, which briefly became the first company to reach a $4 trillion market capitalization. Although it concluded the day at a record-closing value of $3.97 trillion, surpassing Apple's previous peak from December, this achievement underscored the booming tech-driven rally.
Key Points:
Notable Quote:
Tim Seymour (02:36): "It tells us that the market is not only responding to momentum, but following the leadership of mega-cap tech stocks who obviously, from a mathematical perspective, pull the indices up."
Timestamp: 03:26
Tim Seymour emphasizes the market's breadth, noting small-cap outperformance and the strength of industrials like Caterpillar. However, concerns about valuations persist, especially in high-flying tech stocks.
Key Points:
Notable Quote:
Rob Wertheimer (04:36): "If we are going to see the Fed cutting rates this year, which a lot of people are expecting at this point, and you're seeing growth is actually continue to be strong."
Timestamp: 16:57
The conversation shifts to President Trump's new tariff initiatives, particularly a 50% tariff on Brazil—a departure from previous economic-driven tariffs to politically motivated ones.
Key Points:
Notable Quote:
Melissa Lee (19:59): "The chartmaster Carter Worth, he just put out a note in the last few minutes saying that for the first time in a long time it is right to buy the homebuilders."
Timestamp: 31:19
A significant segment discusses Apple’s potential CEO turnover. Analyst Walt Pisa argues that a new CEO could rejuvenate Apple's stagnating stock performance by spearheading a robust AI strategy.
Key Points:
Notable Quote:
Walt Pisa (32:24): "We all know the state of Siri today. I know it's been bantered about perplexity perhaps being an option to acquire. That's not an LLM in the sense of ChatGPT."
Timestamp: 10:35
Caterpillar emerges as a standout performer within the industrials sector, with shares soaring on optimistic earnings forecasts and expectations of AI-driven power demand boosting the company's prospects.
Key Points:
Notable Quote:
Reid Hoffman (11:03): "CAT has always had a huge engine business, but they go into big industrial things. The grid is under strain... creating new opportunities."
Timestamp: 22:39
The segment highlights Kellogg's stock surge following reports that Ferrero is nearing a $3 billion acquisition deal, signaling significant consolidation in the food industry.
Key Points:
Notable Quote:
Megan Cassell (22:39): "Shares of W.K. Kellogg are surging almost 50% on a report that Ferrero is nearing a deal to buy the company for about $3 billion."
Timestamp: 24:32
Boeing experiences a notable stock recovery, climbing to 52-week highs following positive delivery numbers and preliminary safety reports regarding a recent Air India crash.
Key Points:
Notable Quote:
Melissa Lee (25:01): "They didn't do anything that left them culpable in that crash, so that was the major thing that rallied the stock."
Timestamp: 28:16
The panel observes a robust housing market, with increased mortgage applications and rising homebuilder stocks signaling potential sustained growth in the sector.
Key Points:
Notable Quote:
Melissa Lee (28:01): "Mortgage rates in theory should be dropping and people are getting excited about it and willing to move."
Timestamp: 37:04
As the episode nears its conclusion, the team previews upcoming discussions on AI advancements, beverage market dynamics with Starbucks and Luckin Coffee, and continued analysis on corporate strategies within the tech and industrial sectors.
Key Points:
Notable Quote:
Tim Seymour (45:20): "It's interesting to see where Reid Hoffman is betting right now in terms of AI, not the developers of LLMs, but how to use that in order to actually basically cut costs."
This episode of "Fast Money" provides a comprehensive overview of critical market movements and strategic shifts within leading corporations. Nvidia’s unprecedented market cap milestone signifies the relentless momentum in the tech sector, while discussions on Apple’s leadership and trade policies reveal underlying tensions and opportunities. The spotlight on industrials, especially Caterpillar, alongside M&A activities like Kellogg’s potential sale, underscores the diverse factors influencing today’s investment landscape. As the housing market strengthens and companies like Boeing regain investor trust, the episode encapsulates a dynamic and evolving financial environment poised for continued growth and transformation.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by the participants are solely their own and do not reflect those of CNBC, NBCUniversal, or their affiliates. This summary is for informational purposes and should not be construed as financial advice.