← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
Nvidia’s Record Setting Run… And Trump’s Powell Pressure Ramps Up 7/15/25
00:42:08
Nvidia gunning for a license to sell its H20 chips in China, and one asset manager’s thoughts on what it means for the future of AI investments. Plus A hefty week of earnings, starting with big banks. And Trump’s ongoing threats to fire Fed chair Powell. Why one Wall Street forecaster says doing so would feed inflation and hurt stocks.
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- [00:01]
Joe Kernan
Fidelity Trading Dashboard brings live data, news.
- [00:03]
Guy Adami
And charts into one screen. Because better trading starts with finding what you need fast. Available for free@fidelity.com trading dashboard. Investing involves risk, including risk of loss. Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC Member NYSE SIPC.
- [00:16]
Rebecca Quick
Introducing the new Dell AI PC powered by the Intel Core Ultra processor. It helps do your busy work for you so you can fast forward through editing images, designing presentations, generating code, debugging code, summarizing meeting notes, finding files, managing your schedule, responding to Jim's long emails, leaving all the time in the world for the things you actually want to do. No offense, Jim.
- [00:38]
Carter Braxton Worth
Get a new Dell AI PC starting at $699.99 at Dell.com AI PC how those ahead?
- [00:46]
Guy Adami
Stay ahead. Live from the NASDAQ market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast money. Here is what's on tap tonight. Non stop. Nvidia, the chip giant, adding an entire AMAT to its market cap today. The stock now up nearly 55% since Liberation Day. Can the bull run continue? We're going to talk about that. I don't know if we're going to debate it because we all agree it's awesome. Plus, tracking inflation, the latest CPI data showing prices ticked up in June. So what does that mean for the Fed and the economy? And then later, breaking down the banks ahead of Goldman's report tomorrow, a boom in Baba. Can you still bet on Chinese tech stocks? And we're going live to the Pennsylvania Energy and Innovation Summit with the CEO of natural gas company eqt. I'm here. I'm Joe Kernan in for Melissa Lee, coming to you live from above SquawkBox's studio at the NASDAQ.
- [01:49]
Joe Kernan
Feels good.
- [01:49]
Tim Seymour
Moving up in the world.
- [01:50]
Guy Adami
Moving up in the world. Feels good. Exactly. Took an elevator up. I decided I'm not going to kid about people, you know, we are pampered, highly paid idiots and that deserve no tax on overtime. They deserve no tax. That's not why I'm here. I'm not getting.
- [02:05]
Joe Kernan
You drew the long straw today.
- [02:07]
Guy Adami
I drew. I drew the long straw.
- [02:08]
Joe Kernan
The long straw.
- [02:09]
Guy Adami
Mel does a lot for me. She comes in and she was in three times last week. You two.
- [02:14]
Jim Cramer
By the way, can I say this?
- [02:15]
Joe Kernan
Am I allowed to say, let's do well together?
- [02:16]
Jim Cramer
By the way, they're still playing.
- [02:17]
Tim Seymour
I think you're saying it anyway.
- [02:19]
Jim Cramer
You two are wonderful together. I love you. No, it's good. It's great.
- [02:22]
Guy Adami
It's good. She's.
- [02:24]
Jim Cramer
I think you're A little scared of her. I mean, I think she's in Boston.
- [02:26]
Guy Adami
But she is wicked smart. Can I use the wick the word wicked?
- [02:30]
Jim Cramer
You just did.
- [02:31]
Guy Adami
Tim Seymour is. Well, you know everybody who's here. Look, they got rid of it. They're not going to do it. Carter, Net Effingworth is here. Rebecca is here. I know you from a lot of people. Yeah, I'm not going to go into that.
- [02:44]
Jim Cramer
Don't dox her.
- [02:45]
Guy Adami
I'm not going to dox you. I'm not going to do.
- [02:47]
Jim Cramer
You can dox me all you want. I'm Guy, that's Tim. And this is fast money.
- [02:51]
Guy Adami
We start with yet another Nvidia record. After the semi giant got word from the Trump administration it can eventually resume sales of its water. Is it H2? Oh, no, sorry. H2O H20, sorry. AI chip in China. That was a joke. It's not water. Clearing a major hurdle for the AI darling. Other chip makers including amd, Broadcom, Micron, all popping, helping lift the SMH ETF to an all time high. All this is. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is in Beijing this week, just days after a White House meeting. It seemed to kind of usher this in. So if the doors to China open again, is there anything that can stop Nvidia's run. 5 trillion. We were talking about 5 trillion. What do you think?
- [03:38]
Jim Cramer
Well, it's 4.2. First of all, welcome. I mean, as I said earlier, Tim was not here, but I'm not going to put a qualifier on it. You're not on the Mount Rushmore.
- [03:46]
Joe Kernan
He might be. He might.
- [03:47]
Jim Cramer
He's on the Mount Rushmore.
- [03:48]
Joe Kernan
I feel like we have to. I think we have to sculpt another mountain altogether.
- [03:51]
Guy Adami
Yeah. All the wrinkles on those. No. You look great, by the way.
- [03:55]
Jim Cramer
Oh, Nvidia.
- [03:55]
Guy Adami
Nvidia. 35 years old. It's scary.
- [03:58]
Jim Cramer
You've been here 35 years?
- [03:59]
Guy Adami
35 years.
- [03:59]
Jim Cramer
How is that possible?
- [04:00]
Guy Adami
I don't know. I can't seem to fit in anywhere else, I guess.
- [04:06]
Jim Cramer
I think you fit in anywhere you want to fit in.
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Guy Adami
Joe. Thank you.
- [04:09]
Jim Cramer
Here is, if there is a problem, it comes in the form of this. What can derail it? You asked the question. Competition can absolutely derail it. And the competition is out there. And historically, these companies find themselves under the auspices of exactly that. So although they're cheap on a price to earnings, I think we all can agree at a price to revenue approaching 17 times that is historically rich. So if competition comes, there's margin deterioration. Margin deterioration takes down Profits to earnings and that P E that looks great, won't look so great. That is to me the only wild card in this entire thing.
- [04:41]
Tim Seymour
I'll add one more in the short term just a catalyst to watch and that would be Russia, US relationship. We now have a 50 day clock before in theory we get secondary sanctions on Russia. Who does business with Russia? China, India and so if we put 100% tariffs on China as a quid pro quo for the Russia, that's not going to sit still, that's going to flow back to our business. So it's something to keep an eye on.
- [05:08]
Joe Kernan
Yeah, go ahead.
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Carter Braxton Worth
No, I just in terms of video being ahead of itself which is always a thought, can it keep going? If you look back at its peak, intermediate peak before the market sell off in April, right it is only up 16% and the tech sector is up 12 meaning it's only outpacing the sector by 400 basis points on a 78 month basis. So yes, more volatility dropped 45% in the sell off and now up a double from the April low. But really not much ahead of the sector overall on an eight month basis.
- [05:36]
Joe Kernan
Well I forget when this was where we had those headlines after hours about a four and a half billion dollar charge to Nvidia and it really was almost kind of in the teeth of what was a headwind on Nvidia in terms of sentiment. There was a handful of dynamics around there. And so getting back to today's news and what this ushers in, I don't know that we necessarily have new projections in terms of what this means for, for the valuation and for the upcoming quarter which is we all know is going to be a great quarter but I think it brings back into the markets dynamics not just about you know, GPU demand but this is the sovereign AI trademark. This is by the way a trade that now includes amd. Let's not forget they were, they essentially are sitting at the table much in a much smaller chair. But I think inference, demand, all the other parts of this thematic trade I think are very important. And then back to Carter's charts. I mean if you look at the relative performance of semis to the S and P, we had made an all time high since last March, really last July and it looks like we're barreling there and today effectively the triple QS or the NASDAQ the did match that relative high from July of last year that I think is important for leadership and obviously where the indices go from.
- [06:44]
Guy Adami
Here on this show it's all about the stock, isn't it?
- [06:47]
Jim Cramer
What would you like to discuss?
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Guy Adami
We'll, we'll, we had this story this morning but we have three hours to talk about it. Andrew's deal was that if it was a security risk, these chips to start with. Well, you, maybe you were watching. I always why isn't it now and why the flip flop on this?
- [07:04]
Tim Seymour
So there was an interesting comment that Jensen Huang made about this in an interview recently where he talked about if they thought there was any dual use, you know, military etc. Being used. There were things, he hinted that there were things Nvidia could do that would limit the ability of China to continue using the chip. So you wonder, I mean I'm reading into this here, but you wonder have they something embedded in the technology that could actually protect it? Because remember these things got approved during the Biden administration when we had controls on.
- [07:33]
Guy Adami
Do you remember what, what my take was though? This one, My take was who also wants Nvidia to hit 5 trillion market cap? Donald Trump. Who also wants a NASDAQ to keep hitting new highs? Donald Trump. Yeah, when it comes down to it, there's a lot of sound and fury and a lot of tariff stuff. But look what happens with TikTok. Look what happens when you get a market check that looks negative. I think he, I don't think it's a taco trade. I think he, you can go and be Jensen Huang and talk to him and he will listen. I think Tim Cook, Tim Cook can go talk to him and he will listen.
- [08:07]
Jim Cramer
Let me say this. I think Tim has thoughts about, you know, allowing them to do the lower end chip in China blocks out potentially any strategically it's a strategic move. Exactly right. So I admire the administration for letting this go through.
- [08:19]
Guy Adami
Right. That's why I think we decelerated once you saw Liberation Day was the worst it got. It's been decelerating ever since. The question is On August, on August 1, do we go back to trade war fears?
- [08:32]
Joe Kernan
Well, and I think and Rebecca is bringing up a good point because it's not as if Russian sanctions haven't been there for a long time and it's not as if Russian oil hasn't been getting out all over the world for a long time. If Ukraine war in particular rhetoric and maybe a Russian, you know, call it instigation of us Russia taking a step downward after we weren't really sure what the relationship was with the administration in Russia for a long time. That is a reason that you could start leaning on China and India, who need Russian oil more than anybody. And the Chinese have all kinds of deals with Russia in terms of rossnapped and debt deals and pipelines. But I get back to that sovereign AI tour that Jensen Huang did with President Trump through the Middle east, through all these places where, remember, we say this about the public sector. In every other sector, it's always three steps behind the private sector. Well, guess where they're really behind. They're really behind in AI. And in terms of the infrastructure build up, all we do is talk about hyperscalers. So, you know, I know it's hard to hold your nose and look at some of the valuations here. I don't think Nvidia's valuation is awful at all. In fact, I actually like it on a forward basis. I love where the chart has gone and I think that's right. I mean, you have to think about who are the people that want this trade to go higher. It's not just the administration, but I think it's a lot of the people that are committed to it. So at some point we're going to start talking about the rest of the market that has a lot of exposure to the benefits of AI and the margin expansion. But right now it's back to the future.
- [09:51]
Guy Adami
Does the market at these multiples and with the rebound, does it now adequately discount? I, I don't think it possibly could even now how powerful it could be in 2, 3, 4. I mean, all the negative things we talk about, I mean, AI is a tailwind, is it not that Jeremy Siegel back this morning, Jeremy Siegel talking about how we still don't know just how powerful it's going to be. So when you worry about near term things, they might be, you know, long term, they might not be holding the market back.
- [10:26]
Tim Seymour
Yeah, I've always believed this is a structural trade. And you have bigger than the Internet potentially. To your point. We don't know.
- [10:33]
Guy Adami
We don't know.
- [10:33]
Tim Seymour
But I think at this point I bet on it being a structural trade and I just go up and down with my lumps because I'm very tax focused with my holdings. And if we get evidence that something's changed, then you reassess, but we don't have anything yet.
- [10:46]
Guy Adami
Jean is championing it to bit for more on Nvidia's record run. Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management joins us now. You're listening. Maybe you think you can weigh in on AI, but someone said we can't quantify what this means for Nvidia. You tried to do that, didn't you, you actually, if they are able, how much of that write off comes back? It reminds me of a bank when they bring back reserves in and all of a sudden they didn't need to have those reserves.
- [11:12]
Gene Munster
Right on. So the impact I think Timmy mentioned a little bit earlier, it was 15% of their business was this lower level chip. Non direct sales to China is probably another 10%. So think of a quarter of Nvidia's business is China related. We're talking about that 15%. And so then begs the question, they get back 15% of the business, why is the stock only up 4% today? In part because this was telegraphed. Jensen was pretty clear that they're going to find some way forward here. But another piece to it too is that just given how unpredictable a lot of these developments have been, you hear one thing, one day, a few weeks later you get a totally different outcome. You mentioned the Russia impact on this. Investors are also asking themselves like is this really going to be back for good? And so that kind of explains that gap between that 15% add back and the 4%. But in general, Joe, this is, it's obviously it's good for Nvidia but I would put everything I just went through as part of the smaller picture of the news today. There's a much bigger picture that I think is going on in terms of what this means for the broader AI space.
- [12:19]
Guy Adami
So give me a law of large numbers and what's possible two, three, four years from now with Nvidia. What kind of things are we talking? We're talking about 5 trillion I guess anyway.
- [12:32]
Gene Munster
So within video specifically is that next year the street numbers, the analysts that updated their numbers Today, not all 40 have updated their numbers, but those that did are looking for 30% revenue growth in calendar 26. Previously it was 25% growth. They're going to grow by about 60% in calendar 25. And so when I think about how big this can be, I think that ultimately we're going to be 35% better and ultimately that probably is going to get us to 5 trillion and greater. And I would just, you know, I mentioned that the bigger picture going on is that there was a huge read, a huge tell in terms of what this means for the broader air trade is I've been talking over the past few months with a former trade official that worked with Trump on the first in his first administration around trade. And over the past few months he's really stressed the importance of in video in the conversations, especially trying to get these some of these rare metals. But the fact that China is willing to use Nvidia, their junior varsity chips as a key, a key negotiating piece, the fact that they're willing to accept that I think really underscores two things. Number one is that US has a substantial lead when it comes to the hardware side. And second is that they recognize the power of AI is going to be so important that they need to take anything that they can around these lower level chips. And so I think that when we asked the question, Joe, about like where does Nvidia go? I think that we're, we're probably 20% of the way through this buildup. This is going to go on much longer than people think.
- [14:04]
Joe Kernan
Gene. So you talked about the broader trade. So put your analyst hat on. And is this the day actually to buy AMD or Taiwan semi who, who the RTX Pro is being built off of essentially their and for platform. So our investors, should we be focused only on Nvidia? I don't think investors are. But, but let's, let's take this away into stocks that are really exposed to this trade.
- [14:26]
Gene Munster
So on the AMD side, is that there, I mean there is a market share question there. You know, do they ultimately have the chops? And so I think that TSM is probably a better place to be there. I think if you kind of go down the list and look at other supporting Castro and AI infrastructure where companies like Vertiv that are doing some of the cooling, things like that I think are part of it. So I can't speak to AMD specifically, but I just again kind of want to anchor, is that we constantly talk about AI, but I still think it's hard for us to grasp how early we are.
- [15:01]
Guy Adami
All right, Dean, at this point, I mean what we get scared of, what was it called, Deep Six or something? Never mind, never mind. Someday. No, we learned a lot about Deep SEQ today.
- [15:16]
Gene Munster
I mean this was a deep fake. The reality was that DeepSeq was all about being able to train advanced models on far less sophisticated hardware. DeepSeq is great. We use these models internally at Deepwater. DeepSeq is great at the lagging, not the frontier models, but all the actions happen on the frontier. And so I think the fact that they need these again, Junior Varsity chips is evidence that DeepSeq really doesn't deliver the yield on that kind of that high end most frontier models that we had thought of back in January.
- [15:51]
Guy Adami
Okay, Gene, thank you. I have to ask everyone whether they're buying I think now. Right.
- [15:56]
Jim Cramer
You don't have to do anything. You're hosting the show. You can do whatever you want.
- [15:58]
Guy Adami
I know on this show I'm going to take instructions.
- [16:01]
Gene Munster
So do I ask you if you're.
- [16:02]
Guy Adami
Going to turn you buying it?
- [16:04]
Jim Cramer
Is that the game we're going to play?
- [16:05]
Guy Adami
I don't care.
- [16:06]
Jim Cramer
I think trade it, dude.
- [16:07]
Guy Adami
I thought it says right here in his rundown trade it.
- [16:10]
Jim Cramer
Would you rather. And I'm sort of trade it dude.
- [16:13]
Joe Kernan
First of all.
- [16:13]
Jim Cramer
Never mind. I believe was a Nirvana album number one.
- [16:16]
Guy Adami
Yeah.
- [16:16]
Jim Cramer
Number two. I do with a baby like.
- [16:18]
Joe Kernan
Yep.
- [16:19]
Guy Adami
You know.
- [16:19]
Joe Kernan
Good job.
- [16:20]
Guy Adami
Thank you.
- [16:20]
Jim Cramer
Amd watching Francis Bean. That's that the baby.
- [16:25]
Guy Adami
Yeah. Yeah.
- [16:27]
Jim Cramer
Anyway, Francis Bain watch analysts here. I think HSBC just went from 100 to 200. Analysts are going to start to run to raise their price targets and that to 10 level we saw I think this spring of last year is in the crosshairs.
- [16:42]
Guy Adami
That's it.
- [16:43]
Carter Braxton Worth
I like it as a pair. How about this? It's Oracle's double the performance of Nvidia over the trailing 12 months. I like that as a pair. Meaning to be long in video but short Oracle to give yourself a little protection.
- [16:54]
Joe Kernan
I said it's live tv. Sometimes you make some mistakes. I don't think the baby was.
- [16:58]
Jim Cramer
Francis, I just said that to you. I just said she was the mother. That's not the baby. You yelled at me.
- [17:04]
Guy Adami
Okay.
- [17:04]
Joe Kernan
And I think it's also important to note that eventually Nirvana sued the baby.
- [17:08]
Guy Adami
So baby is like 30 now or something and something was going on.
- [17:14]
Joe Kernan
It's a metaphor for something. So look back back to the market. I you know, January of 25 was the deep seat moment that everybody questioned whether the hyperscalers were overextended and whether this was an aha moment for at least lower powered chips that were proliferating in China. I think what we've all said collectively today is is that it's just not that moment. The question really is how do you want to play this trade? And if I think about where semiconductors are as a group, there are places that I think people want to own exposure. Which includes Broadcom, which includes Taiwan, Semi and amd.
- [17:47]
Guy Adami
Very good. Coming up, a lot of other things to talk about, especially earnings because we're in full swing. This is the way it always starts with these banks, big banks kicking things off the numbers from their quarters. Next. Rebecca likes to talk about things.
- [18:02]
Tim Seymour
Do you know I've spent a couple years in banks?
- [18:04]
Guy Adami
You did. I know the minutiae gets me and you got to know each one specifically to know what's above and below. They are complicated, expecting net interest income anyway, she's going to do that. Plus, we're digging into energy space as nearly $100 billion in investments are announced at the Pennsylvania Energy and Innovation Summit. EQT CEO Letters Is that Jeopardy? Toby Rice joins us next. We'll afford to lay out where he sees the sector heading next. Don't go anywhere fast money.
- [18:37]
Joe Kernan
Do not please. Come on.
- [18:39]
Guy Adami
We'll be back in two. Chuck Worry say you've always wanted to take a spontaneous trip to the Caribbean. Here's the thing. If you get smart with your money, you can do things like that. With Empower, you can start making the.
- [18:54]
Toby Rice
Most out of your money so you.
- [18:55]
Guy Adami
Can get out and live a little. Isn't that why we work so hard to have some fun with our money? Like treating yourself to something special or spontaneously doing something extra for a loved one. So use Empower and get good at money so you can be a little bad. Join their 19 million customers today@empower.com not an Empower client, paid or sponsored.
- [19:16]
Rebecca Quick
Your favorite neighborhood spots run on Square Square can help you turn your business idea into a huge success. Yes, even that brilliant idea for Ugly Lamp Market, the shop specializing in gloriously hideous lamps. Square isn't just a point of sale for local businesses anymore. What began as a little white card reader is now a behind the scenes powerhouse, helping you manage finances, schedule your team and cover cash flow gaps when they come up. Up with Square, you could keep things at Ugly Lamp Market running smoothly even when someone tries to return a lava lamp shaped like a flamingo because it's too refined. And whether you're expanding to new cities or growing your loyal following of light loving fans with questionable taste, Square is with you every step of the way. Square helps you tackle today's to do's and bring that big light bulb idea to life tomorrow. Literally. Go to square.com go fastmoney to learn more. That's S Q U-A-R-E.com square meet you there.
- [20:18]
Brian Sullivan
On WhatsApp. Your personal messages stay private between you and whoever you send them to. So things like the passport numbers for your honeymoon stay between you and your fiance and that video call for your grand's 80th stays in the family. Even your streaming password stays between you and your college roommates who still ask for it every week in your group chat. Because on WhatsApp, your personal messages are yours. No one else can see or hear them, not even us. WhatsApp message privately.
- [20:53]
Guy Adami
Welcome Back to Fast Money Natural gas company EQT announcing it will be making some major new investments in energy infrastructure. Our Brian Sullivan, my other bro, is live in that TV. But from the CEO with the CBO, Toby Rice. What's going on, Sully?
- [21:11]
Rebecca Quick
Well, stocks up 26% year to date, Joe. I know you guys on Squawk Box talked to Senator Dave McCormick whose event this is at. Soon as you guys wrapped, we started. So it's kind of great to. It's the Kernan, Sullivan, Kernan Show. Either way, we'll send it back to you guys to talk about EQT and NAT Gas in a moment. Toby Rice, great to see you live on fast money and CNBC. This event, okay, $92 billion of money is being committed to AI energy and AI infrastructure. How confident are you that that all of that, some of that, most of that will be put to use and actually build things?
- [21:51]
Toby Rice
I think you look at the companies that showed up today and made those announcements, companies like Blackstone, these are big major league companies that don't take making announcements lightly. I'm very confident that a lot of this that has been announced today is going to get done. To see the number of high caliber folks coming here just reinforces the importance. The fact that President Trump made his way here and brought almost half a dozen of his cabinet members. It shows you how important this is to everybody involved because Pittsburgh needs to become the ecosystem for AI and we've got all the resources in place. So it makes a ton of sense. This is going to be a great opportunity for us to build the ecosystem here.
- [22:29]
Rebecca Quick
Well, you know, obviously Steel City, right? We think about Steel City, we think about why this city became a steel capital. Well, you had coal nearby, but you also had rivers, you had energy sources, oil. The first domestic well was drilled near here. So it had a lot of the aspects that made building steel easier. Does it have the same for AI?
- [22:48]
Toby Rice
Well, when you look at the value chain, one of the biggest issues that people are getting their heads wrapped around is the massive amount of energy that is going to be needed to unleash this revolution. Net energy is going to come from natural gas. We are going to be the fastest, most cost effective, cleanest energy solution. So what better place to put your big power data center other than a place where the energy is going to be there? Now, today EQT announced that we're going to be supplying over 1.4 BCF a day of natural gas. That's the announcement that we made today that is going to set up A decade of sustainable growth for our business equity. It's a tremendous amount of energy, but it's a sign of things that more will come.
- [23:31]
Rebecca Quick
Here's the problem with energy and natural gas is that the numbers are like. Remember Carl Sagan? You talk about the universe, the billions and billions of stars. The numbers are so big they're hard to understand. Put 1 billion cubic feet, 1 bcf into sort of layman's terms like how much natural gas are we talking about?
- [23:49]
Toby Rice
Yeah, so one BCF a day of natural gas would be enough energy to power New York City. So this is a tremendous. Yeah, it's over six gigawatt. New York City is about five and a half gigawatts. So the numbers we're talking about, these are major league type of opportunities. It's why it's going to take America's heavyweight blue chip operators to deliver these solutions. That's why when people have energy needs, they're calling America's natural gas champion eqt. And we are answering these calls and we are going to deliver.
- [24:18]
Rebecca Quick
You know, it's always the last mile that hurts things that makes it hard. Right. You think you do all these big things. You got Google here, Amazon Web Services, BlackRock, Blackstone and many others. They're here.
- [24:28]
Guy Adami
Okay.
- [24:28]
Rebecca Quick
Core weave. We just talked to their CEO on closing bell overtime. But it's like permitting, right? It's like getting the power lines built. You can't get those things built. You can't get the big things built. Are you. And we had governor got Josh Shapiro on earlier, a Democrat, he's confident the permitting can get done to actually do it.
- [24:46]
Toby Rice
And I share that confidence as well. I think one thing that's special about Pittsburgh is our leaders like Dave McCormick, like Josh Shapiro. These guys are playing with a chip on their shoulders. They know that, that Pennsylvania is not producing at optimum at full potential. And they're working to clear the roadblocks so that we can get the infrastructure built to create these great opportunities for the commonwealth. So that's another reason why companies are select have selected Pennsylvania to put massive investments here. And as far as perma reform goes, which ultimately is going to be a sustainable answer, it's. It's going to happen because it has to happen. We can no longer live in a country where we can't get things built. And we're not just talking about pipelines or transmission lines, whether you're talking about solar facilities or wind farms. It's hard to get anything built. It's. The system is maxed out. And with this great opportunity in front of us, the stakes are even higher for us to meet this AI revolution because we are in the great race with China and we have got to keep our edge and we have got to win this.
- [25:39]
Rebecca Quick
Well, we're going to leave it there. Toby Rice Equity, the biggest, biggest natural gas producer.
- [25:44]
Toby Rice
Biggest integrated natural gas, America's natural gas champion.
- [25:46]
Rebecca Quick
Integrated natural gas producer, United States, Toby Rice. Thank you very much. So think about that with these numbers. Mark Zuckerberg just announced that Meadow was going to build a 5 gigawatt data center. You just heard the numbers. 5 gigawatts is 5. Denver or almost one New York City worth of power for a data center. I mean, these numbers. And I'm sure you got the Carl Sagan reference, Mr. MIT. I don't know about the Georgetown guys, but these numbers are truly massive.
- [26:15]
Guy Adami
Billions and billions. Is it on the moon? Zuckerberg's new thing. Did you see that report earlier from Diana? Building data centers in outer space? Yeah, that was cbd. That was my.
- [26:28]
Joe Kernan
That.
- [26:28]
Guy Adami
That was my. Hey, that was a great interview, Brian. And it. It's good to see you. We got to go. I'm not going to ask you to trade it, right? He doesn't know. Okay, let me. Okay. No, Brian, we don't want to know. Guy, how about you?
- [26:41]
Jim Cramer
Well, are you familiar with my tube?
- [26:43]
Guy Adami
Excuse me?
- [26:44]
Joe Kernan
That's a fair question. It's a fair reaction.
- [26:46]
Jim Cramer
I mean, I know Tim is. Well, the E in my tube is eqt. There you go, Joe, you can look at the screen. Screen game. Little game we play here. On fast. What I will tell you is with close to 60% earnings growth, maybe 20% revenue growth at 10 and a half times next year's numbers, given the run that it's had, it's still too cheap.
- [27:06]
Joe Kernan
So.
- [27:07]
Jim Cramer
I'm a big fan of equity.
- [27:08]
Guy Adami
You've done this tube thing before. No, I have not. Oh, you have not.
- [27:13]
Joe Kernan
Was my clam at a clam before.
- [27:17]
Tim Seymour
It's all catchy.
- [27:18]
Guy Adami
Nobody knows. Yeah, I will say.
- [27:22]
Tim Seymour
I mean, they're in a great position, right? Data center. Energy demand is going to triple just in the next five years. And so if solar and wind are probably on the downswing, Nat Gas, nuclear on the upswing, it makes sense that they're doing what they're doing.
- [27:34]
Guy Adami
Thank you for bringing it back to.
- [27:37]
Tim Seymour
That's why I'm here.
- [27:37]
Guy Adami
Yes, I bring it. Coming up. Coming up, the latest on the big banks after JP Morgan, Citi and Wells Fargo reported earnings this morning. More fast. Right after this.
- [28:02]
Brian Sullivan
At Capella University, learning the right skills could make a difference. That's why our business programs teach you relevant skills you can take from the course room to the workplace. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at Capella.
- [28:16]
Rebecca Quick
Edu which are America's top states for business.
- [28:21]
Joe Kernan
Get all the data and complete state by state analysis.
- [28:25]
Guy Adami
See how your state measures up America's top states for business now on topstates.
- [28:30]
Rebecca Quick
Cnbc.Com.
- [28:35]
Guy Adami
The fake it at the banks. Hi. Welcome back. They wanted a lot of energy here.
- [28:39]
Jim Cramer
What were you murmuring about?
- [28:40]
Guy Adami
Saying I got to fake it to get excited about. Welcome back. No to fast money. Citi kicking off big bank earnings by raising guidance. Announcing a $4 billion stock buyback. Stock at a 17 year high that.
- [28:54]
Joe Kernan
Doesn'T now still down, you know, $59.
- [28:57]
Guy Adami
Okay, it's $9 because it did a reverse split, right? It's $9.
- [29:01]
Joe Kernan
I mean it's not.
- [29:02]
Carter Braxton Worth
You would have to rally like 7,000%.
- [29:05]
Guy Adami
To get to get back because the guy said that I'm going to keep dancing, you know. And then the song had ended. Chuck Prince, right? Mm. J.P. morgan down slightly despite a surge in trade. They'll never outlive that. I mean we got to give him credits back to 90 Jane credit. And then in trading and investment banking revenues and well far Wells Fargo dropped over 5% lowering its net interest income outlook for the year. Carter, wasn't this a great number from. From J.P. morgan?
- [29:34]
Carter Braxton Worth
Well, it's a testament to the very simple, I think truth that there's no such thing as good or bad news, good or bad earnings. There's only news or earnings. It's how the market reacts. If every single constituent of the BKX index was down except Citibank and they all had purportedly good quarters, then they couldn't have been good quarters, meaning they were priced in the market off. Its April low is up 30%. The BKX is up 45. And on a two year basis the banks have doubled the promise.
- [30:01]
Guy Adami
Say that again. Bkx is up 45% since April low since liberation.
- [30:06]
Carter Braxton Worth
Liberation versus 45% versus be up 30. So you're talking about a whole lot more in the market. A lot was priced in apparently and hence the reaction.
- [30:15]
Guy Adami
I'm trying to think of why. I guess recession worries or. Well, first of all they were, they were tariffs.
- [30:23]
Joe Kernan
Carter's view is totally fair. But I mean Citi, I mean JP Morgan missed on net interest income. And I think if you're thinking about where people were Hoping these banks were going to start to show a little bit more of a pipeline positive. I can't argue with, with what he's saying. First of all, in terms of the move banks had into this number, it's extraordinary. What's interesting to me is that Citibank gets rewarded for more of a buyback story and I think it deserves it. And I think, you know, we spent this whole show talking about AI and efficiencies and whatnot. This is the year of efficiency at Citibank and it has been and it's why it's outperformed. And Citibank, which is the cheapest relative to the best in breed, that's where the market went today. And I actually think you're going to continue to see upgrades in Citibank.
- [31:02]
Guy Adami
I'm long.
- [31:02]
Jim Cramer
Let me opine quickly before Rebecca. It's a relative value thing that we've been talking about for a while. JP Morgan at 2.6 times book may be justified, maybe not. But Citi, which at its trough was 60% of book, should in this environment be trading closer. We have said that countless times over the last few months and they came in today, they told you book values 106. Listen, I think it gets there. I think they deserve to get there. I think Jane Fraser is doing a really good job.
- [31:29]
Guy Adami
Job, yeah.
- [31:29]
Tim Seymour
When I looked at the reports today, I thought, okay, we knew that the consumer was doing relatively better in the last quarter so that should come through. We knew we had a ton of volatility in markets so trading desk should have done really well. So all of that to me is of course it happened. The one surprise to me in the second quarter from JP Morgan was the investment bank results that they had so much deal activity better than expected on that front. I was surprised to see that so much got done through that channel given that there's still a lot of uncertainty that could still come through later this year. So to me though, it's backward looking, right. The consumer was doing well. We know they're slowing now, so can it continue in the quarter ahead? And that's what makes me a little bit nervous about you guys being long at these levels.
- [32:14]
Guy Adami
So we're not going to trade this, are we?
- [32:16]
Tim Seymour
We just did.
- [32:18]
Guy Adami
No one, I heard it, but no one said they're buying like City. Yes.
- [32:24]
Jim Cramer
What show are you hosting? We just said, I mean City close it with $90 today. We just said it can go to the book value which is 1 Tim.
- [32:31]
Carter Braxton Worth
And since.
- [32:32]
Guy Adami
No, that's not show, is it?
- [32:35]
Joe Kernan
Since Jane Fraser took over city and has been at the helm. I mean this has been and that's.
- [32:39]
Guy Adami
Like, that's turning around.
- [32:40]
Joe Kernan
This is a four year out performance.
- [32:41]
Guy Adami
That's like an ocean liner turn.
- [32:43]
Tim Seymour
Yeah, but she's doing it.
- [32:44]
Joe Kernan
They finally turned the corner.
- [32:46]
Guy Adami
All right. I, I heard you. What Adami, no, explain. Even with the trade you already traded by coming up, President Trump continuing to put pressure on Fed Chair Powell to lower rates. Why? Our next guest says a cut would feed inflation and hurt stocks. That's what we're going to talk about when FAST MONEY returns. This show is bonkers. Welcome back to FAST money. What goes on here? The Dow closing today down more than 400 points. The S&P down 4. 10 of A percent. But the NASDAQ closed at a record. Shares of MP Materials soared 20%. The Pentagon backed miner inking a $500 million deal with Apple for rare earth magnets. MP now up more than 170% over the past two months. And Bitcoin and crypto related names taking a leg lower after a procedural vote failed in the House this afternoon. Speaker Mike Johnson initially saying the House would rather or would hold another vote today, but canceling those plans just a little while ago. I was getting word that he didn't have the votes necessarily on that. But what can you say about bitcoin the last week? Nuts. And inflation accelerating in June with the latest data showing consumer prices rose 2.7% from a year ago, more than the pace in May. For more, let's bring in Wall street forecaster Jim Bianco of Bianco Research. Jim, it's been a while. The number today, we're still waiting for Godot though on the real scary tariff inflation, aren't we? This was, it was just the slightest bit maybe hotter than expectations. Still not awful.
- [34:34]
J
Yeah, we saw some signs of tariffs in there. I mean things like, you know, toys and apparel and furnishing, they all moved up more. Those are kind of the things you would associate with being imported from China. What offset that were some other service things and used car prices that had a seasonal adjustment down. So within that number, you saw the beginnings of some moving up in tariffs. But you're right, it wasn't that the overall number got pushed, but that might be coming in the months ahead.
- [35:08]
Guy Adami
Jim, how much will offsets play into what we're seeing? There's a couple of, of half full scenarios for inflation if you want to be, you know, try to be positive. Hopefully not Pollyanna, but shelter costs coming down. Right. Energy kind of under Control the tariffs. We were still not till August for some, admittedly, but not the worst case scenario hasn't been hit yet. Is there any way that inflation stays off the radar in terms of a real problem for another month or not?
- [35:43]
J
Oh, I mean, sure, if you get those offsets, but I think that when you come to prices going up, I mean we're talking about goods prices now that you're going to import, most likely they're going to continue to go higher. And when you get over to the Fed's favorite measure, the personal consumption expenditure or PC, the things like you mentioned like energy and like housing has lower weightings so they won't offset as much. And as a matter of fact, a lot of people on Wall street are already saying that. You could see in the PC number at the end of the month because it uses the same, you know, survey that CPI uses, a 3/10 or 410 rise in that number. Now there's going to be more data coming out tomorrow with PPI that goes into that. So we'll have to see what their final numbers are. So you could see sticky inflation. Be clear, we're not talking about, you know, huge inflation here, but in a world of 3%, that's enough to get the Fed not to move rates, that's enough to keep the funds rate of 4.
- [36:39]
Guy Adami
Is any of this just last mile inflation from the last bout that we had that very troublesome 40 year high battle or is this, is that gone? Was that it, was that totally dissipated?
- [36:53]
J
I think it has, I mean, you know, that was more of a supply chain shock and that, that has faded away in the picture right now. And I think what we're seeing is we're settling out on a core inflation number around 3% and on a headline inflation number around 2 and a half to 3. And that will vary with whatever energy prices do. But those numbers, keep in mind, pre, pre Covid, they were one and a half percent. So you're at a much higher inflation level.
- [37:19]
Guy Adami
Not everyone's a hawk anymore. I mean you see a lot of, you know, people that have some gravitas, you know, not just not to say, you know, President Trump doesn't have gravitas, but not everyone is just saying we want lower rates because I'm a real estate guy and I always want lower rates. There are some sort of normal people that think the Fed should be cutting right now. Right?
- [37:41]
J
That's true. And what they want is they want lower rates. But I'll remind you, last year the fed cut rates 100 basis points. September, November, December, the 10 year yield started at 3.6% and ended at 4, 8. It went straight up. Because when the Fed moves and the market doesn't think it's the right idea, it rejects it and you see higher rates. The risk you have is if we get what President Trump wants, a 300 basis point cut. If the market thinks, look, the economy's okay, we don't need extra stimulus and you're just going to come up and just inject steroids into this thing, then you're going to wind up potentially producing inflation and you'll wind up getting a bad reaction out of the bond market.
- [38:20]
Guy Adami
If the bond market thinks it's the right thing, you're using up some hard won dry powder. If there ever is a slowdown too. I've said that, Rebecca, I mean Nvidia.
- [38:31]
Tim Seymour
And Tech brought up the NASDAQ today. The rest of the market I think was some disappointment on banks, but it was also a yield story. To your point, Jim, I mean we had the 30 or over 5% again today. Today that's a number that the stock market doesn't like. The 10 year was getting closer to 5 and I think that was a big drag. And the fact that inflation is staying higher than people would like prevents the Fed from moving. But I do think Treasury Secretary Bessant in his comment that Powell should step down from the whole Fed and that creates this perception that the President could stack the deck, so to speak, on the fomc, I think that also probably spooked the market a little bit. And I mean look, you need more than six votes to get a rate cut. So getting one more person on the FOMC isn't going to get you there. But how big a deal do you think this is for the market?
- [39:20]
J
It's not a big deal now, but it can become a big deal because I was in the camp even last week that all of this was more theater that President Trump threatening to fire Powell, he wasn't really going to do it. But now that they've kind of brought in this whole thing that he's mismanaged the Fed building and maybe misled Congress last month, they're setting the case for it, you know, you know, with cause reason to fire him and with Besant's argument is saying and if we fire you, you should go, you shouldn't try and fight us on. This is really starting. It should worry people. I wouldn't put the odds at greater than 50% they're going to fire him. But I would say the odds are rising and they're rising every day because two or three times a day President Trump seems to be attacking Chairman Powell about monetary policy and that's not going to stop.
- [40:08]
Tim Seymour
So I looked at this in other countries that have gone through a similar episode. Turkey, Hungary, Argentina, Venezuela, obviously America is not that. But what I found in those countries is when the currency is devalued, In Turkey's case, 88% and yields, long term yields went up, the front end yield came down. But stocks did okay. In Turkey's case, especially in recent years, they've done quite well. And the sense I've gotten from the work I've done is that part of that was local investors saying, I don't know where to hide. And stocks can manage inflation better than bonds or deposits at my bank. I mean, could you see a story where the Fed loses some measure of independence in stocks that can hold in there because people own equities as an inflation hedge, or is this just a totally different animal here?
- [40:58]
J
Well, this might be a different animal because we're talking about the reserve currency at this point. And there are other options. You're right. If you're stuck in a country with capital controls like a Venezuela or an Argentina or something Argentina Primalae, then you don't really have much of a choice. But if you're in the United States and you see a loss of independence, the Fed, there's Europe, there's other investments that you could be pushing towards and that it makes it a little bit of a different game.
- [41:24]
Guy Adami
Okay, we got to end it there. Jim, thank you. Good. Good to have you on and see you. Coming up, shares of Alibaba surging on the back of strong mainland growth numbers. How our traders are handling the bounce next, Fast Money is back. Just a couple of minutes. Welcome back to Fast money. China Tech stocks surging today. Baidu and Alibaba both seeing their best day since March. The gains coming after some new data showed that China's economy grew slightly faster than expected in the second quarter. Carter, what is if you're not grading on the curve, what's 5.2, do you think? Is it really 5:2?
- [42:08]
Carter Braxton Worth
You know, I'll go with that. But speaking to Baba, this is a textbook bearish to bullish reversal, meaning something lost 80% of its value and then has gradually, slowly been basing. Now, you could get the same play out of the K web or you can do it individually through this stock, but there's asymmetry here. Downside looks very limited.
- [42:28]
Joe Kernan
Upside unlimited, I'M with them and I'm with them because I think the fundamentals actually do make sense to me. As I've said often, the governance around this company is, is also something that's in a very different place. We're looking for national champions in China. We're looking for companies that actually are exposed to some of the same high growth sectors. And to the extent that Jack Ma has kissed the ring, we know that. But the extent that the valuation has probably 30% of the market cap in cash, this Macro news is a nice driver, but it's not the reason why. Yeah, no, it actually was a driver for today. It's not the reason to go buy the stock. You should buy it anyway.
- [43:02]
Jim Cramer
Do you recall the question I asked you approximately, approximately 12 minutes ago that you looked at?
- [43:06]
Guy Adami
I'm so afraid I'll bring it up again. Is that the. There's no A in tuba Ba Ba. Oh for the symbol leaving out the alley going with the baba.
- [43:17]
Jim Cramer
Well that is the name of the.
- [43:18]
Joe Kernan
B and B. I'd like to at least.
- [43:20]
Jim Cramer
Yes, I'm clearly a fan and I'm with Tim and Carter and I will say this, the stock should be somewhere north of $165 just on what Tim mentioned alone.
- [43:30]
Guy Adami
I see. I was scared when you started talking that you're going to bring up your tube again.
- [43:35]
Jim Cramer
You just said it.
- [43:37]
Guy Adami
Coming up, earnings season officially underway. The set for J and set up for JJ and United Airlines ahead of those reports tomorrow. More fast money in a couple minutes. Time for the final trade. Let's go around the horn, Tim.
- [43:58]
Joe Kernan
Yeah. Speaking of all star game, first of all it was kind of an all star game tonight with Rebecca and you and Carter. I mean Guy, we're, we're lucky guys.
- [44:04]
Jim Cramer
We're just jv.
- [44:05]
Guy Adami
That's it.
- [44:06]
Joe Kernan
Well, there's a juniors game too but in the meantime Citibank has been playing the juniors game for a long time and I actually think it's them. It's their time. Excuse me. To try to play in the big game, Carter.
- [44:15]
Carter Braxton Worth
You know Amazon still hasn't made an all time high and I think it's a place to be for a catch up trade to the S&P 500.
- [44:21]
Tim Seymour
Rebecca, I'm going to be focusing on the structural trade and the need for energy so I'm going to go with.
- [44:27]
Jim Cramer
With NLR 12 hours from now we will be seeing you on the squawk box 6 to 9am with Andrew and Becky. I look forward to that. I'm sure you have some riveting guests. I will be tuned in always. Thank you for coming.
- [44:39]
Guy Adami
If I if I told you where I was headed right now, none of you would believe me. I'm gonna tell you. I'm actually headed to Mass at St Patrick's thanks for watching Fast Money.
- [44:47]
Joe Kernan
Very nice.
- [44:48]
Guy Adami
Not kidding. Mad Money starts right now.
- [44:51]
Brian Sullivan
All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of cnbc, NBC Univers, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer@ Capella University, learning the right skills could make a difference. That's why our business programs teach you relevant skills you can take from the courseroom to the workplace. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at Capella Eduardo.