Oil Drops To 4 Year Lows… And Hollywood’s Tariff Threat 5/5/25

Summary

CNBC's "Fast Money" Podcast Summary
Episode: Oil Drops To 4 Year Lows… And Hollywood’s Tariff Threat
Release Date: May 5, 2025

Introduction

In this episode of CNBC's "Fast Money," host Melissa Lee and a panel of top traders delve into the significant downturn in oil prices reaching four-year lows, the strategic maneuvers of OPEC, and the looming threat of tariffs on Hollywood's streaming industry. The discussion offers in-depth analysis of market implications, corporate strategies, and the broader economic impact of these developments.

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1. Oil Prices Plunge as OPEC Increases Production

The episode kicks off with a focus on the sharp decline in WTI crude oil prices, which have fallen to their lowest settlement since February 2021. This downturn follows OPEC's recent decision to ramp up oil production.

• Market Impact: Energy stocks have taken a significant hit, with companies like APA Occidental and ConocoPhillips leading the decline. The sector has emerged as the biggest drag on the S&P 500 this quarter.

• Expert Insight: Paul Sankey, President and Lead Analyst at Sankey Research, joins the discussion to provide his perspective on the sustainability of these low prices.

  "We think that's got to drop by about 2 million barrels a day to balance the market, assuming that OPEC follows through with these increases that they've been talking about." [02:30]

2. OPEC’s Strategy and Potential Market Share War

Melissa Lee and Paul Sankey explore the strategic intentions behind OPEC's production increase, suggesting a possible market share war aimed at weakening U.S. unconventional oil production.

• Projected Price Drop: Sankey predicts oil prices could dip into the $40s to force a reduction in U.S. oil production, creating a supply-demand imbalance.

  "It looks like a very bad balance." [02:53]

• Industry Preparations: Companies like Diamondback are already cutting capital expenditures in anticipation of prolonged low prices, positioning themselves to survive the upcoming market turbulence.

  "They're getting themselves ready for what is a market share war." [02:59]

3. Economic Implications for the U.S. and Texas

The panel discusses the broader economic repercussions of sustained low oil prices, particularly on the U.S. economy and key regions like Texas.

• Sector Vulnerability: Low oil prices could severely impact Texas's economy and primary industrial activities, despite making oil prices more favorable for consumers.

  "We think relatively equilibrium or higher oil prices are good for the US Economy because of what it does for Texas." [03:57]

• Recession Risks: There is concern that the oil market downturn may signal or contribute to an impending recession, as evidenced by decreased activity in ports and reduced industrial demand.

  "The oil market is clearly discounting a major recession at some point." [06:20]

4. Trade Policies and Tariffs Affecting Industries

The conversation shifts to the implications of President Trump's proposed tariffs, specifically targeting Hollywood's film and streaming sectors.

• Tariff Proposals: Trump has introduced a 100% tax on overseas-produced films, which threatens to increase costs for streamers like Netflix and traditional studios.

  "President Trump proposing a 100% tax on films made overseas that sends streamers and studio stocks into the red." [31:21]

• Industry Response: The tariffs aim to incentivize domestic production but risk escalating trade tensions and increasing operational costs for content creators.

  "These proposed tariffs were sparked by concerns about production moving overseas." [33:00]

5. Impact on Streaming Services and Hollywood Studios

Laura Martin from Needham analyzes how the tariffs could disproportionately affect streaming giants and traditional media companies.

• Netflix Vulnerability: With approximately 80% of its film content produced internationally, Netflix stands to suffer significant financial impacts from the tariffs.

  "The answer is to that question is we think about 20% of their total content spending is films, because he said films. And almost all of that, 80% of that is done outside the U.S." [33:18]

• Strategic Shifts: Studios like Disney and Warner Brothers, which have substantial domestic production capabilities, may navigate the tariffs more effectively than Netflix.

  "Disney's at an advantage because they got so much theme parks and they have a lot of sound stages sitting in Burbank that's doing TV." [34:56]

6. Corporate Earnings and Market Reactions

The panel reviews recent earnings reports, highlighting how companies like Ford and Skechers are responding to the volatile market environment.

• Ford's Uncertainty: Ford reported better-than-expected earnings but suspended its full-year guidance due to uncertainty surrounding tariff impacts.

  "They did hit the target, but the target has been moving down the ICE division." [21:45]

• Skechers Goes Private: Skechers surged by over 20% after announcing a deal to be acquired by 3G Capital, signaling confidence despite broader market challenges.

  "The deal details and what it means for competitors like Steve Madden and Crocs are fascinating." [40:16]

7. Cybersecurity Stocks Outperforming the Market

Amidst the oil and trade turbulence, cybersecurity stocks have shown resilience, outperforming the broader market.

• Sector Strength: ETFs like HACK have seen significant gains, up nearly 18% in the last month, driven by strong performance from leaders like CrowdStrike and Fortinet.

  "These security names have been absolutely fantastic. They outperformed on the way down and have led out of this on the way up." [43:05]

• Future Outlook: Experts believe that the cybersecurity sector will continue to thrive, given the increasing importance of digital security in a volatile global landscape.

  "The secular shift to this has been in place for the last five or six years without question." [43:58]

8. Market Sentiment and Future Projections

The episode concludes with reflections on current market sentiment, the potential for recession, and strategies for investors navigating this complex environment.

• Growth vs. Inflation Risks: Tim Seymour emphasizes that the primary risk to the economy leans more towards slowing growth rather than persistent inflation, influencing investment strategies.

  "The bigger risk is to the growth side, not the inflation side." [12:30]

• Investment Strategies: Panelists advise caution, suggesting a focus on strong sectors like cybersecurity and cautious navigation of volatile industries such as energy and automotive.

  "We would stay away from vulnerable charts and look for strong leaders." [29:45]

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Conclusion

This episode of "Fast Money" provides a comprehensive analysis of the current challenges facing the oil industry, the strategic moves by OPEC, and the potential repercussions of tariff policies on Hollywood and streaming services. Combined with insights into corporate earnings and resilient sectors like cybersecurity, the discussion offers valuable takeaways for investors aiming to navigate a tumultuous market landscape.

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Notable Quotes:

• "We think that's got to drop by about 2 million barrels a day to balance the market." — Melissa Lee [02:30]

• "We do expect to see the pump prices have to come down by a decent amount to catch up with the wholesale market." — Melissa Lee [09:19]

• "The bigger risk is to the growth side, not the inflation side." — Tim Seymour [12:30]

Transcript

[Melissa Lee]

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[Guy Adami]

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[Melissa Lee]

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[Tim Seymour]

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[Chris Rohn]

With Fidelity, it's easy to get an.

[Melissa Lee]

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[Chris Rohn]

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[Melissa Lee]

That's right.

[Chris Rohn]

I am always right.

[Tim Seymour]

Investing involves risk, including risk of loss. Online US equity trades and ETFs and retail fidelity account sell order assessment fee not included. Some account types and securities excluded. [e-mail] commissions Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC member NYSE SIBC.

[Chris Rohn]

Live from the NASDAQ markets in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Oil in retreat. Crude settling at fresh four year lows as OPEC gets ready to up production. What it will mean for prices and for profits in the energy complex. And Netflix gets chilled. The streamers record wind streak comes to an abrupt halt as President Trump eyes a new target in the tariff wars, what it could mean for the industry and how the longtime leader could be impacted. Plus, Ford becomes the latest company to pull 2025 guidance. Sketchers inks a deal to go private. Chris Rohn is hacking into the cybersecurity stock charts. Can the group's run keep going? We'll get his take coming up. I'm Melissa Lee, come to you live from Studio B at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Guy Damian, Chris Rohn partner and chief market strategist at Strategic A Baird company. And we start off with another leg lower for oil prices. WTI crude sinking another 2% today, posting its lowest settle since since February 2021. This latest move coming is after OPEC agreed to a production increase over the weekend. Prices traded as low as 55 bucks a barrel today. The oil slump taking a bite out of energy stocks. APA Occidental and ConocoPhillips leading the group lower. It was the worst performing sector in the S and P this session and has been the biggest drag on the market this quarter. 1 of institutional investors. Top oil analysts warning there's no relief in sight. Paul Sankey is president and lead Analyst at Sankey Research. He joins us here on set. Paul, always great to see you in person.

[Melissa Lee]

Hi.

[Chris Rohn]

What do you think this means in terms of how low oil prices can go?

[Melissa Lee]

I think we're looking for the point at which you balance the market through price and that means that you're going to have to shut down probably US Unconventional production. On our numbers that the liquids, overall liquids level, the US production is around 20 million barrels a day. We think that's got to drop by about 2 million barrels a day to balance the market, assuming that OPEC follows through with these increases that they've been talking about. So it looks like a very bad balance.

[Chris Rohn]

So you're talking about oil prices have to go lower in order to shut production down, which will then buoy oil prices.

[Melissa Lee]

Yes. So we just had an interesting press release from Diamondback which is, you know, top Permian operator and what they were saying is they won't resume any kind of growth until we get past $55 a barrel would really be more like $65 a barrel would be the level at which they would restart growth. And now they've just announced they're cutting capex by 10%. This is one of the best operators and $400 million, so not an insignificant amount of money. So what you're looking at here is already the best in class guys ahead of this downturn because we haven't seen the demand downturn actually hit yet. But ahead of it, they're getting themselves ready for what is a market share war. And that would improve that would imply $40, 40 forties oil would be where you're headed if you're really going to shut down the U.S. well pun intended.

[Guy Adami]

But let's drill down a little bit there because it's be careful what you wish for here in the United States because at a certain price it really hamstrings people down in Texas and people up north as well. And this is not good for the industry here in the U.S. yeah.

[Melissa Lee]

And Diamondback's letter tonight makes that point that the oil and gas industry has done an incredible job in the US over the past 15 years. We've become the world's largest oil and gas producer, which is incredibly powerful for things like the US Dollar. And you know, I just don't think you should be hurting this industry excessively in the way that you will be. We also think that relatively equilibrium or higher oil prices are good for the US Economy because of what it does for Texas, because of what it does for primary industrial industrial activity in this country. So we don't see this as necessarily positive. However, I've been on this show many times and we've talked about the coming market share war and you know, it came but.

[Dan Nathan]

So who's hurting who? Because what I want to understand here is OPEC for years had shown a level of discipline that really, you know, kept almost this uncanny type of lack of volatility in the oil price. You talk about a war that US producers may or may not want to get involved in. Obviously my guess is OPEC really is not real happy with the US Non conventional. So talk about this because, you know, everything I'm reading is that in Midlands or certainly kind of for the entire region. You're talking about break evens where oil prices now are already below that. And again, these are folks that capex discipline, fiscal discipline. This is what they've been about for the last six years.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah, but what's happened over the last six years? You really formed opec. You did form OPEC which included Russia as the big addition to OPEC in 2016. And what you've seen, you know, for that post 2016 period, which was bringing us out of a big downturn, it did work well as an organization. But when it came to the big test in 2020 Covid, it actually blew up. And the result of Saudi and OPEC action, inaction, in fact, disagreement was negative nearly $40 oil prices for a moment. So there's been a bit of a mixed track record. And now what you're seeing is gradually the organization is sort of shredding and the big one at the core of it is Saudi uae. And when that began to break down, that's when you almost began to completely lose opec. Subsequently, this year's crisis has been caused by Russia and Kazakhstan really not playing the game. And that's interesting because Russia to a given extent controls Kazakhstan's output because it controls the pipeline. So there's some sort of major issue here within OPEC that's turning into a market share war. And that's basically what the Saudis are telling the press. You can read it in the press. We're going to have a market share. If you do that, you have to take oil to where you shut down US production and you probably looking at a four handle.

[Tim Seymour]

Paul, help me reconcile the economic message of a four handle on oil with an S and P that's retraced all of its April loss.

[Melissa Lee]

The the oil market is clearly discounting a major recession at some point. Now of course, an element here of the downturn in oil is the fact that you've got a supply, supply shock as well. These things always seem to come together. Demand downturn coming now if you listen to the director of the Port of L. A he said that the impact economically is going to be this week. You know, the tariffs were only in April, April 2nd announcement. So you're expecting to see a physical downturn as of this week. But I was, for example, Valero, on that call last week were just saying that the demand side actually is holding up and to them everything real time looks fine. You know, Times Square seems pretty busy. It seems like economic activity is continuing. So we really haven't seen the tariff effect but we expect to see it this week.

[Tim Seymour]

And Paul and gas has been a place to hide and names like equity and LNG have held in. Do you think that continues going forward?

[Melissa Lee]

We do, yeah. Because if you look at, for example Microsoft matter last week, that the natural gas, we need natural gas for electricity. That mega theme is one that we're going to stick with. Absolutely. Right here. We'll be seeing a few really important results this week. We've got Vista and Constellation in that space. But also Devon is the marginal US and we'll be watching them carefully. Diamondback did the right thing today after the market with their results where they're cutting Capex and that's what the whole industry needs to do now.

[Chris Rohn]

How much do you think if this is political, if at all, in terms of, you know, Saudi wanting to strengthen ties with the US Trump having asked them to bring down oil prices.

[Melissa Lee]

I mean, you have to conclude it's, it's part of the equation. Right? The Saudis do want some things. The good news for the Saudis is their balance sheet is strong. So people think that, you know, their break even is $85 oil. It is. But since when did a government balance its budget? You know, they don't have a lot of borrowing, so they've got the financial capacity. The other thing is Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is very popular internally. So the country is in good shape to go into this. And I think combined with what they want in return from the US which would be things like a defense pact, nuclear agreements, stuff like that, they probably also pushing the US to take Iranian barrels off the market, which would help the balance a lot.

[Chris Rohn]

But if we've heard already, producers like Diamondback, you know, forecast what the impact is going to be. When will we see that hurt in Texas? When will we see, when do you, when historically have we seen that in terms of the lag or, you know, is it a matter of months with the unconventional?

[Melissa Lee]

It very much is. You know, the Decline rates are 60% in the first year of production. So you have a very rapid decline rate and a need for very rapid activity. And during COVID you saw a pretty rapid drop off. Although of course the COVID recession was the shortest on history in history because you printed your way back out of it. The question is, how are you going to get out of this recession quickly if you're not going to print your way out of it like we did last time?

[Guy Adami]

So a silver lining theoretically for people is gas prices will go down in sympathy. That remains to be seen. But for some of the refiners in the input.

[Melissa Lee]

Right.

[Guy Adami]

I mean, the biggest input crude oil is lower if they're still holding on to the margins, if the crack spreads are working in their favor. The valeros of the world actually could be interesting here.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah, and that's, that's one view. Absolutely, that more OPEC crude is a wider heavy light spread that's good for refining if demand holds up. So it becomes absolutely a question of demand holding up. More crude is good for refiners. There's no question about that. The other thing is if you look at wholesale gasoline prices, which President Trump referred to, he said we're at a $98. We're not at a $98 at the pump. He was talking about the 9 max price probably, which is closer. More like $2.10 on Friday. You can see clearly the pump prices have to come down by a decent amount to catch up with the wholesale market. So pump prices will be lower going into driving season.

[Dan Nathan]

But Paul, how about, you know, the trade in the energy space, I think for the last five years has not really been about, hey, get someone on the upstream or an EMP play. It's really been about MLPs and utilities and people getting fat yields and gotten very comfortable with that. Is that trade something to be concerned about? Because again, people that are in that trade are not people that are go, go high volatility energy, let's put it all on black. They're people that I want to clip my 6 to 9% coupon in some great names like energy transfer and go home.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah, I mean, I think in gas you can see the volumes are going to be maintained. We've got the LNG export story, we've got the Mexico export story, and then we've got the natural gas story. So volumes of natural gas likely to stay very high. The concern would be the more oily empty. You've already had some issues around export exports to China. That's been a big part of the story for some of them. And so there's a concern that if we're going to stop activity on the oily side, then that's going to be negative for the more oily of the midstream players and that would be where I'd be more concerned.

[Chris Rohn]

Exxon last week said we're going to stick by our production forecast, we're going to stick by our growth forecast. And I'm wondering at what point do even companies that have reported already have to pull back or revise their, their forecasts.

[Melissa Lee]

That's really why we're talking about the 40 number because this is going to be sticky. Saudi's in good financial shape. There's a lot of long cycle oil being added globally. A good example would be by Guyana. That stuff's just going to keep coming. Canada is just going to keep coming. So to shut down the U.S. you're also now for a first time dealing with Chevron, Exxon, really? Exxon, Chevron, Conoco, who haven't said anything, in fact broadly speaking said we're not going to change anything right here.

[Chris Rohn]

Right.

[Melissa Lee]

So it's going to be a tough battle this one.

[Chris Rohn]

Oh, Paul, great to see you. Thank you so much. Paul Sankey, Sankey Research. What do we do here?

[Guy Adami]

Well, he's on, listen, he's the man to speak to in terms of the space and he's been spot on. What do you do here? Well, I do think refiners can work to Paul's point. If crude keeps going lower, gas sort of hangs in there demand. Valero is interesting here but you know, Chris mentioned equity. That stock is hung around pretty well as well. Nat Gas downstream plays clean energy. There are places to be but the big cap integrated names like Exxon, which I loved is has not traded well now for the last couple of months.

[Tim Seymour]

I think the context of this discussion is interesting. When you have a Fed debating what's the bigger risk, is it the growth side of the equation or inflation? And when I see crude at 57 today, all the energy stocks at new lows, the basic resource stocks, Tim, as you certainly know, have been weak. That doesn't seem like a very inflationary message. So I look at the macro ledger and I still think the bigger risk is to the growth side, not the inflation side.

[Dan Nathan]

I think it's a fascinating time because I agree with you on the politics here. There's no question there is. There's, I wouldn't we call it collusion? We want to call it. I mean they're allowed to. Collusion sometimes is a naughty word. But I mean if the Saudis want to play ball with the U.S. that's fine. And it means I think oil price could go lower. Ultimately the demand side of this is what we all get worried about. And I think Chris's question about the, you know, the discrepancy or one's not telling the right story, the S and P or the price of oil and I would get back to the integrated and it's been a very safe place to play. And I'm not saying I change this view overnight, but there have been times where I felt very confident investing in the big integrators, especially because of the free cash flow and the capex discipline. And that's something that I think you have to look at if you are. I love Total and Royal Dutch Shell over in Europe because their break evens are around 44 bucks.

[Chris Rohn]

Okay, so, but if what Paul says holds true in terms of 40, all bets are off.

[Dan Nathan]

Look, all bets are up for a space that always overshoots and the price of oil will overshoot. And we remember the days when US so went to, you know, negative. I mean, I think we're all used to seeing the volatility in the energy space and it usually leads the way.

[Chris Rohn]

I mean you got to think of the last or maybe two bus cycles ago beyond Covid, what, 1980s or something like that, where you got to be careful what you wish for. President Trump in terms of lower oil prices, no doubt.

[Dan Nathan]

And what it means for those regions.

[Chris Rohn]

Those jobs has been economic engine.

[Guy Adami]

There's a real fine line real quick and remember is during the first Trump administration, go back and look to Tim's point when he had a minus 40 front month crude for other reasons other than, you know, we're talking about here. But we went to OPEC and said, hey, you know what, you got to cut production. I mean the price is too low. So we walk a fine line here in the crude oil world.

[Tim Seymour]

And guy, just go back to 2014, 2015. Don't go all the way back to the 80s. I mean there was a oil shock in 1415.

[Dan Nathan]

Well, there's a credit shock in that space too. That's something that I think a lot of people are still, you know, feeling the burnout.

[Chris Rohn]

Yep. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen speaking at the Milken Institute's global conference in Beverly Hills today, making his case for President Trump's America first economic plan. Our Sarah Eisen spoke with him after his panel. She joins us now with the latest. Hi Sarah.

[Dan Nathan]

Hi Melissa.

[Sarah Eisen]

Good to see you. Treasury Secretary was here at Milken talking to investors globally. It's a community he knows well as a former hedge fund manager and making the case for why it is a good time to invest in America. Also making the case that the economic policy agenda is not just about trade, it's trade. Along with tax legislation which he's talking up and deregulation, all of which he expects to hit in the second half of the year. When we talked about economic growth expectations, he said he wants to get back to the 3% level. Why? Well, economic growth but also because he is a so called deficit and wants to bring the deficit down as well to the 3% range of GDP. So some numbers there. As far as trade, of course I asked for an update on how it's going, particularly with China and whether things are still at a standstill. Here's what he said about whether we could see de escalation when it comes to the US versus China on trade.

[Guy Adami]

I think we could see substantial progress.

[Dan Nathan]

In the coming weeks.

[Guy Adami]

We'll see that as I think it's.

[Dan Nathan]

Stein's law, that which is not sustainable doesn't continue.

[Sarah Eisen]

So again repeated that it's unsustainable to have this kind of trade embargo with China. Also reiterated that it's on China to de escalate. And according to history and academics, that's what he said, that China gets hurt more than the US Than the deficit country when it's a trade fight like this and so continues to believe the US has the leverage. Wouldn't comment necessarily on on how that de escalation process happens. But he did say a matter of weeks. And then with the rest of the trade deals he said we're prioritizing 17 partners and said as President Trump said that we could see a deal announced as early as this week. And then Melissa, just as you guys were talking about energy prices, I mean he did point out that that was one of the administration policies and goals to bring down energy prices. Certainly that has happened in a big way. Mortgage rates were another area he pointed to as far as progress because you know they're looking at that a 10 year treasury yield and trying to bring rates down as seeing signs that that's all starting to work out.

[Chris Rohn]

Sarah, thank you. Sarah Eisen joining us from Milken after having spoken with Secretary Bessant. Again promises from the administration that progress will be made. We could be on the verge of deals. Although President Trump earlier today said that he has no plans right now to speak with President Xi Jinping of China.

[Guy Adami]

So look, if you think we're on the verge of a deal, I understand why the markets. Listen, technically I understand why the markets rally. Chris can speak to that. Maybe we've overshot a little bit. Although the S and P traded basically up to the 200 day moving average. But there are other things at work here. There's a reason why crude is lower, things are slowing down, there is a market slowdown. And you know what it comes down to whether we're in one or about to go into a recession. I mean, the average multiple during those times is not 21, it's more in the mid teens, which we're nowhere near right now. And by the way, it's against earnings revisions that are have to continue to come down. And by the way, there's a reason why Warren Buffett now is almost $350 billion of cash sitting on the sidelines and it's done nothing over the last couple of months. Something to think about out.

[Dan Nathan]

Yeah, well, if you think about, you know, I was just looking a report from Fitch who says our effective tariff rate is somewhere around 24%. This includes, you know, 90 day delays. In other words, what we have now, not what could happen in 90 days if they don't cut deals with those 17 and includes kind of China where they're at. We started the year at a defective tariff rate about 2.3%. Okay, so. So no matter what you do, we're at a place on tariffs that we haven't seen in a post World War II environment. When you think about the impact of that, I think it's still yet to come. When you think about from a markets perspective and sentiment, we all know where sentiment was three weeks ago and it was about as bad as you could get. I also think with the administration, in terms of what they're delivering to us now, the worst of that detox is over. I'm not talking about the economic impact. I'm talking about, you hear from the White House and I think there's going to be a lot of goodies. We're going to hear from the White House too. Whether the market believes them or not, or whether you think the follow through, whether you think there can be tax cut cuts, I'm not going to opine on that. I'm just saying in terms of what we've encountered in terms of market sentiment out of D.C. i think we've seen our worst.

[Tim Seymour]

You know, I would tend to agree. I think we learned 4800 is certainly a pain point. Maybe that's the Trump put here. I think we learned 4, 6470 and 10 year yields is also a pain point here. And you bring up tax cuts. Well, there's a tax cut right in front of us. We just talked about it with Paul.

[Chris Rohn]

Right.

[Tim Seymour]

We've seen oil go down meaningfully. Rates are off their highs. So I'm not opposed to the idea of listen, we know the facts that in the present, but what's the future telling us here? What could go right? Do we have the imagination to think what could go right from here? I think that's important going forward.

[Chris Rohn]

Coming up, earnings season in full swing. Ford Hims and Hers, Palantir and more. All on the move after reporting the numbers from the Quarters next. Plus a tariff on Tinseltown. How Hollywood could get hit by Trump's tariff proposals and the streaming stocks not loving the drama. Don't go anywhere. Fast Money is back into.

[Melissa Lee]

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[Dan Nathan]

That take credit cards nationwide.

[Melissa Lee]

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[Chris Rohn]

Welcome back to Fast Money Earnings Alert on Ford. The company reporting top and bottom line Beats, but shares moving lower on suspended full year guidance as the automaker expects to take a big hit tied to tariffs. Philippe's got all the details. Hey, Phil.

[Phil LeBeau]

Hey, Melissa. The call has just begun and they really haven't gotten into the decent questions from analysts. They're still sort of rehashing a lot of the first quarter and what their plans are for the rest of this year. Nothing substantial with regard to tariffs. As you mentioned, Ford did beat on the top and the bottom line. But let's be clear here. The analyst estimates they were dramatically cut over the last 45 days. So yes, they did hit the target, but the target has been moving down the ICE division. Now this is something that's going to get some attention on the call. $96 million profit. A year ago it was 901 million. Some of that is because of lower volumes, some of that is because of mix. We'll hear what they have to say during the call. 1.5 billion is the net tariff impact that they expect at this point for 2025. So as a result, if you take a look at shares of Ford, as you mentioned, the company has suspended its guidance. There have been a few people who have said, well, the company says they ex tariffs would hit their target of profit of between 7 and 8.5 billion.

[Chris Rohn]

Sure.

[Phil LeBeau]

But nobody's quite sure what the tariff impact is going to be over an extended period of time here. They say right now with the current policies it's 1.5 billion. What if there's a new policy, et cetera. Also, Ford is evaluating if its manufacturing footprint. We're going to be talking with Jim Farley tomorrow morning first on cnbc. You don't want to miss what he has to say. Most importantly, it's about tariffs. It's about how do they continue to have some type of certainty with regard to their costs. Yes, they're saying it's 1.5 billion. But Melissa, let me throw out an example here. What happens if Ford and other automakers have to commit to financially helping suppliers in order for those suppliers to come into the United States? Nobody's saying that's going to happen at this point, but that's one of many questions that are out there within the auto industry. Again, we're going to hop back on the call, see if Jim Farley has any further details about what they're expecting with tariffs.

[Chris Rohn]

So Phil, I'm curious because GM adjusted their full year operating profit guidance lower because of the situation and Ford pulled it. So how do you think they shake out in terms of does GM look like they're giving guidance that is just, you know, unknowable or does Ford look much worse because they have no handle on what their guidance will be?

[Phil LeBeau]

Well, I don't, I don't think that Ford has no handle on it. Look, there are back of the envelope you could sit there and say okay, they expected to earn between seven and eight and a half billion dollars, take off 1.5 billion for the expected impact of tariffs and you have them earning between five and a half and, and what? $7 billion. But they've made a point of saying we think that's the impact at this point but things could change. And I think that it's just two different approaches to how you want to look at full year guidance at this point. Melissa. I don't think that Ford is unknowable and that General Motors is 100% knowable. I think this is just their approaches for handling this.

[Chris Rohn]

Phil. Thanks. Phil LeBeau.

[Phil LeBeau]

You bet.

[Chris Rohn]

What would you feel more comfortable with?

[Dan Nathan]

Is this a kind of. Would you rather dress up kind of.

[Chris Rohn]

I mean would you rather have a company just pull their full year guidance or would you rather have a GM that will estimate some sort of guidance not really knowing what the exact future will be?

[Dan Nathan]

I'd like them to give me something like them to give me something and I understand that we live in a volatile environment. I mean GF GM has also given us some sense of where their tariff offsets are. They're looking at about a 30% tariff offset. I think people were skeptical of Ford hitting their numbers in the second half which required a lot of cost cuts in a world that was pre tariff announcements. And again I'll say this, I don't know anything about what's going to happen but I, I think a 6% dividend yield in Ford right now is not sustainable. I bet they have to cut that.

[Guy Adami]

I got out of college 39 years ago if I had bought a share of Ford, fell asleep for 39 years and woke up today, it's the same which is extraordinary if you think about it. So I don't know the environment that the stock can do. Well we've had a stock market until recently, it's done extraordinarily well from 16 to 2020 was probably the best four or five year stretch for autos ever. And the stock can't get out of its own way. So I don't know given the choice between the two and another game of Would you rather.

[Chris Rohn]

I would rather do very depressing thing to Guy Van Winkle 39 years.

[Guy Adami]

A lot of people say that I.

[Dan Nathan]

Have been as ripped on the dummy.

[Tim Seymour]

I mean you had a stock that four weeks ago as we know was very very oversold. Oversold in a deep downtrend rally. 20% off a low. Where is a fail at the 200 day moving average where they all fail in downtrends. Look at its peers. GM still below the 200 day BMW looks like it's rolling back under the 200 day. The only auto stock globally I can find that's really working is BYD in China. It's the best looking chart of the whole bunch. Tells you something.

[Chris Rohn]

Coming up, more earnings action to bring you hims and hers, Palantir, Lattice, Semi and Mattel all in move after hours. The numbers from quarters next plus Apple under pressure from Trump's tariffs even as a broader market rebound. How our traders are handling the move and what the technicals are telling us about the tech giants. Next move. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ markets at in Times Square back right after this.

[Melissa Lee]

Are you still quoting 30 year old movies? Have you said cool beans in the past 90 days? Do you think Discover isn't widely accepted? If this sounds like you, you're stuck in the past. Discover is accepted at 99% of places.

[Dan Nathan]

That take credit cards nationwide and every.

[Melissa Lee]

Time you make a purchase with your card, you automatically earn cash back. Welcome to the now it pays to Discover. Learn [e-mail] credit card based on the February 2024 Nelson Report with the president pressuring the Fed to cut rates and the outlook uncertain, how will the Fed balance? The threat of lower growth and higher unemployment? FedShare Powell's message to investors. Power Lunch Wednesday 2 Eastern and streaming on CNBC. Calling all fast Money fans. Join us for our next live event Thursday, June 5.

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Trading and I think I've become a.

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[Melissa Lee]

Watch the show, stay for an exclusive Q and A, meet the traders and leave with a special gift. This was an incredible experience.

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I love being here and meeting these guys and it was just the experience was awesome.

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Never miss a show ever.

[Melissa Lee]

So to find out how to navigate this wild market environment, get your tickets now. Just scan the QR code or go to cnbc event.com fast money.

[Chris Rohn]

Welcome back to Fast Money Stocks kicking off the week in the red. The Dow and S&P 500 snapping nine day winning streaks. The Dow down about 100 points, the S and P falling more than a half a percent percent and The Nasdaq leading the losses down three quarters of a percent. Shares of Berkshire Hathaway retreating from record highs after legendary investor Warren Buffett announced he will step down as CEO at the end of the year but remain as chairman. Berkshire's board voting unanimously for Greg Abel to take over. Shares of Tyson foods dropping nearly 8% after the company missed sales estimates this morning and gave a disappointing outlook. Shares of Southwest Airlines meantime locking in a 10 day winning streak tying its record. The stock up more than 25% in that time. And some more after hours action, hims and hers posting earnings and revenues that beat expectations. Palantir reporting a revenue beat and raising guidance. The stock is lower though stocks down here despite the news. A lot of semi posting in line results but lowering guidance slightly in Mattel posting a better than expected adjusted loss and beating revenue estimates but the company pulling its annual forecast. Clorox also lower after missing top and bottom line estimates estimates and Apple of note today lower again. The stock down more than 20% this year, lagging the broader tech space. It is the worst performing MAG7 stock so far this quarter. So Chris, we got to ask you, what do you see here?

[Tim Seymour]

I think the charts in a tough spot. Remember it didn't peak in February with the S and P peaked all the way back in December. The relative looks really awful. You're making basically back to the relative lows from earlier in April failed right at 215. So this is now a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. I think it's a vulnerable chart. We would stay away.

[Dan Nathan]

How about the rest of the Mag 7 because that's outside of Microsoft. You know we there was a point last week where I said oh, downtrend broken, downtrend broken, but not really. And how much, how much fudge factor can you give to that? I realize that you can do whatever you want with two lines but we start to try to draw four or five together to make that downtrend line. You can kind of skirt above it a couple of days but it looks like it's intact.

[Tim Seymour]

Well Tim, I think it's interesting if you think about it this way. The S and P recovered about two thirds of the losses. Apple didn't even recover 50% of the losses. Nvidia has not recovered 50% of its losses. So when you start going stock by stock, Amazon as we know has really been one of the weaker of the group as well. So when you start going stock by stock, really the only two where I think the integrity of the uptrend is either being reborn or is still intact. Is Microsoft as you mentioned and met us probably okay here?

[Chris Rohn]

Yeah. What do you think?

[Guy Adami]

Microsoft bucked the trend without question. All the all these names we talked about last week, they all traded back up to the 200 day moving average and failed ex Microsoft, which shot through it is now trading I think 1 to 4 30s ish. So that's the outlier. The rest of them technically feel a little bit broken to me. I'm sort of with Chris on this one.

[Chris Rohn]

Coming up, lights, camera, tariff, how President Trump's foreign film levy proposal is hitting studios and streamers. The consequences on and off the screen when fast Money returns.

[Melissa Lee]

Missed a moment of fast. Catch us anytime on the go. Follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.

[Chris Rohn]

Welcome back to Fast money. Hollywood could be the next industry caught in the tariff crosshairs. President Trump proposing a 100% tax on films made overseas that sends streamers and studio stocks into the red today. CNBC's Julia Borson's got some more on this story. Julia? Melissa, the media giant, streamers and theater companies all seeing their stocks fall in this news of tariffs that could hurt an already challenged industry. Netflix shares down nearly 2%, breaking that stock's 11 day winning streak. Amazon, Warner Brothers, Discovery, Paramount, all lower today while theater stocks, Cinemark, IMAX and AMC also fell on this news. Now these proposed tariffs were sparked by concerns about production moving overseas. As of the first quarter of this year, 60% of spending by U.S. producers on movie and TV projects with budgets over $40 million went outside the U.S. according to ProD Pro. A press release out just now from John Voight, who Trump named into a new honorary role of Hollywood ambassador, announcing that Voight and his adviser have submitted a plan to the president with changes to domestic film and production, including federal tax incentives, changes to tax codes and tariffs in quote, certain limited circumstances. Trump saying today that he and his team are going to meet with the industry, quote, to make sure they're happy because we're all about jobs. Trump seemingly responding to concerns including that retaliatory tariffs could threaten streamers and studios, important revenue from international markets. Melissa? Julia, thank you. Julia Borson. For more on the impact on streamers and studios, Needham's Laura Martin joins us now. Laura, great to have you with us.

[Laura Martin]

Nice to see you.

[Chris Rohn]

I know that there's a lot of unknowns about this proposal. It is at the very earliest of stages. But at the same time, in terms of what we know about how much content Netflix buys from overseas Right now, how much could the hit be?

[Laura Martin]

It would be the worst for Netflix. So the answer is to that question is we think about 20% of their total content spending is films, because he said films. And almost all of that, 80% of that is done outside the U.S. the Julia statistic, she put up with 60% TV and films. And he might not be making a distinction between TV and films because, you know, you. We do because we think there's a difference in length, but he may not be making a difference. So we need to understand that the more important point is that this pivots economic priority to user generated content because 2/3 of YouTube creators are sitting offshore, but they're not getting taxed by generating revenue in America. So he's pivot and tick tock too. Most of that is offshore content, a lot of it. They're not getting taxed. So if it's TV, if it's only film and not TV, then Disney's @ an advantage because they got so much theme parks and they have a lot of sound stages sitting in Burbank that's doing tv. Similarly, Warner Brothers has a lot of TV assets and in theory that's not caught up in the film. 100% tariffs, unless he's not very. Being very precise. So. But I would say Netflix gets hurts a lot because it's a globally scaled platform and so they make content all over the world. The other thing that's problematic is a film, if that's what he means, that's what Trump means, takes three years. So he will actually be out of office before somebody could change their production location to make a film in America instead of offshore. Whereas meanwhile, back at the ranch, over the next two years, the films that are halfway finished are going to get, they have to be finished where they're being filmed right now.

[Chris Rohn]

Right. I mean, I would imagine that there's a level of complexity here because some films are probably shot overseas, edited, produce final stages in the United States. So there could be, you know, stacked or staggered tariffs depending on what parts of the film are produced. Where you mentioned the impact on user generated content. And so do you think that, you know, YouTube, for instance, owned by Alphabet, would be disproportionately hit hard should these tariffs go into effect and it covers all content?

[Laura Martin]

No, it would go the other way. Content that's made offshore. What would you do? Put a gating factor in all American young people that voters and say, you can't watch this without paying a fee because a lot of YouTube content and TikTok is free. So how do you tax that? Right. It's got ads. So I think that'd be really hard. He'd lose a lot of votes if he suddenly put up a paywall in prior, you know, free services prior to this.

[Dan Nathan]

Well, let's get back to the core business because what you're bringing up here is, is fascinating in terms of what the headlines look like today. But back to Netflix. And again, you're talking about a company that somewhere, you know, 12 to 16% CAGR on revenue, but operating income will over the next four or five years at least what I'm seeing from the street. But net operating income was up 28% last year. So obviously the economies of scale help us understand how this feeds into how you value this company.

[Laura Martin]

Right. Well, so first thing you know, he says something yesterday on a Sunday, there's nothing that prevents him three days later from reversing himself.

[Chris Rohn]

Right.

[Laura Martin]

He sort of sees what the uproar is and this isn't better for Hollywood or the exhibitors. So if he's trying to create more jobs, him adding tariffs to films in production before they come back, like, isn't helping job production is hurting Hollywood. So, you know, I fully expect if he gets enough outcry from Hollywood that he'll reverse himself. So, so let's keep that in mind. But if he doesn't reverse himself and films really means films, which is two hours or more, it is bad for Hollywood films because it is much cheaper to produce in London, to produce in Canada, to produce offshore than it is in America right now.

[Chris Rohn]

What is the differential, Laura?

[Laura Martin]

30% typically offshore gives 30% within America. If you go to Atlanta and it's giving tax, or Philly was giving 20%, it's typically 15 to 20% within America and 30% or more to go off.

[Chris Rohn]

Offshore at the same time. If Netflix had to, I would imagine Netflix is the best position to pass the cost onto consumers versus others. Maybe.

[Laura Martin]

And maybe they could do a tier where you get the Netflix product and then they upsell on films that are from offshore. So you charge an extra buck if you want unlimited. But you know, Trump called, Jeff Bezos, who technically no longer runs Amazon, said, don't you dare list the tariffs in the cost of goods that you're charging people. So I don't know if they would allow Netflix to have a tier said tariff imposed on films.

[Chris Rohn]

All right, Laura, thank you so much. Laura Martin of Needham, thank you. All right, so Netflix breaking its 11 day winning streak. Chris, how does the stock look at this? Point.

[Tim Seymour]

Well, the chart's been exceptional for however long years. It's a very overbought name. Anything could have hit it here. It happened to be this. I think you buy a pullback here. 950 to 975 is very good support. The whole sector is good. Spotify is good. EA is good. Take 2 is good. So really the Comm Services group is still one of the strongest in our work.

[Guy Adami]

Yeah, I agree. You're looking for a place to get back in if you haven't gotten in. It's 1060 though. Ish was the prior all time high I think on Valentine's Day that we recently traded through a retrace of that makes sense. But you buy it there.

[Dan Nathan]

I like Disney here and I like the streaming and I like the element of. Again, back to, you know the chart that Chris probably seen on Disney for the last five. I mean, you know, somewhere around 80, 85 bucks. I mean is where this stock seems to encounter and hold to even the worst dynamic. Now you make an argument that it's been dead money.

[Chris Rohn]

It has been even a recession. Worst dynamic meaning a recession.

[Dan Nathan]

I mean look outside of a Covid overshoot. I understand that there are certainly more cyclical. There's more cyclicality in Disney in terms of their parks business and some of the advertising in their linear. But DTC is profitable.

[Chris Rohn]

How does that Disney chart look?

[Tim Seymour]

Disney chart, I think spacing. I'm with it here. This is it. Listen, everything's gone wrong for it. They have not been able to kill it. I think it's putting in a bottom.

[Chris Rohn]

All right, coming up. What a run. Shares of Skechers surging as the retailer laces up to lead the public markets. The deal details and what it means for competitors next. And cybersecurity stocks coming into focus. The group recently outperforming the broader market. Why Chris believes in the firewall Fury ahead. Fast Money's back in two. Welcome back to Fast Money. Skechers soaring 24% after agreeing to sell itself to 3G Capital for $63 a share. That's a more than 2027% premium to Friday's close. The company pulled its guidance last month due to tariff uncertainty. But a source telling CNBC that the current trade environment was not responsible for Skechers making a deal. The take private transaction set to close in the third quarter of this year. Some analysts writing that the valuation this is being taken private at is positive for a lot of the other shoemakers in the space like Steve Madden. Like a Crocs etcetera It's a fascinating.

[Dan Nathan]

Deal coming at a time, by the way. 3G Capital, if you don't know them, Brazilian based, but Warren Buffett's done deals with them. Georgie, Paolo, Lemon, I think one of the smartest guys out there. I think the deal probably makes sense on paper. I just wonder where we are in terms of discretionary. In fact, I was looking at the moves and say on, on and some of the rallies they've had off the lows. Deckers, these are 30 to 45% moves that have off those lows. And again, we talked to that downtrend. I'll let Chris speak to that. But I just look at discretionary, I look at, I look at demand factor and I look at valuations and where they went into this downdraft at peak margin selling those rallies.

[Tim Seymour]

Tim, I'm with you. I can't get there on these charts. On. On is maybe the best one. But when you start looking at Shu, when you look at Crocs, these are weak bounces in long term downtrends.

[Guy Adami]

I mean, Skechers in January was making an all time. Again, the world change. I get it. Was making an all time high north of 75.

[Dan Nathan]

And there you were wearing them that day, by the way.

[Guy Adami]

With that day and today and every day in between, you can just slip.

[Chris Rohn]

It to lace or anything.

[Dan Nathan]

That's a great point. And guy likes guys a creature of.

[Guy Adami]

Comfort, you know, at my age, that's something to consider.

[Chris Rohn]

It's convenience.

[Guy Adami]

But, you know, jumping at $63 give. I mean, it just goes to show quickly how much has changed in the world over the last few months.

[Chris Rohn]

Just to be clear, you don't wear those.

[Guy Adami]

No, I don't wear those.

[Dan Nathan]

I mean, come on, he's wearing Crocs though.

[Guy Adami]

I mean, I still am trying to.

[Chris Rohn]

Win it on the go.

[Dan Nathan]

When I try to win at like.

[Guy Adami]

When I give up, that's when. Until then, now.

[Chris Rohn]

All right, coming up, hacking into the charts where Chris Ferron sees cyber stocks heading as the group outperforms the broader market. He's diving into the technicals when Fast Money returns Back into. Welcome back to Fast Money. Cybersecurity stocks outpacing the broader market. To start the week. The Hack ETF that tracks the space now riding a three day winning streak and is up nearly 18% in the last month. Chris here says that names have room to run even higher. So let's go up the charts. Chris, what are you seeing?

[Tim Seymour]

Yeah, it's a group we like. I think it's important for this market that it's rallied back into resistance. Now we need to spend time identifying okay, who is the market telling us are the leaders on the other side? What groups or what stocks are making the relative highs here? And these security names have been absolutely fantastic. They outperformed on the way down. They have led out of this on the way up. CrowdStrike comes to mind here. Maybe it pauses at 450. That's the old highs. I would buy a pullback there. Note it's already making new relative performance highs. So on that relative high list, Fortinet FTNT is another example of where the relative performance is leading. The market is telling us this is a winner on the other side. And then cyber arc maybe a little bit less known. The old highs are 430 stock trades 3360 today. Again leading here. I think it's a very strong group. The market has told us these are winners.

[Chris Rohn]

Yeah. How?

[Guy Adami]

Made an all time high a few months ago. Traded down in the August low about 150. Has bounced report I believe on the 20th of May. I think it rallies into earnings.

[Dan Nathan]

First of all, full disclosure, I managed three ETFs in the Amplify family. But I tell you what, I like this ETF because it does give you some of that. But there's also, you know, it's thematic but you have names like Cisco in there. You have names like Broadcom come in there. I mean I think there's the right amount of exposure to stuff that I think overall has been beaten up and has some room to run back.

[Chris Rohn]

And it is, I mean in terms of the fundamental backdrop for cybersecurity, a trade war with China could basically invite.

[Guy Adami]

Hackers percent I mean the secular shift to this has been in place for the last five or six years without question. The problem across the space, some more than others, been valuation concerns. And when news is bad they take these out to the woodshed. But in the meantime all these names are in play. I think Palo Alto is best in breed but other names work too.

[Chris Rohn]

Do we see that Chris, in terms of levels that where there's resistance?

[Tim Seymour]

Well, it's remarkable how Hobonji is the group is acting. I mean they basically all look the same the charts. I don't think the market's really distinguishing between Palo or CrowdStrike or CrowdStrike and Fortinet. So the ETF hack we own CrowdStrike in our ETF SAMM. I think it's best to breed in terms of a chart perspective.

[Chris Rohn]

Yeah. What would concern you in terms of cutbacks and in technology spending, enterprise spending.

[Dan Nathan]

It would except for the last place they're going to cut probably is in cyber and in AI. And again, I look at crowdstrike and in a high volume environment, I mean I'm long crowdstrike, I think the valuation is, is defensible. It's fascinating to see even what Palantir did in the after hours here. And I would have thought, and you know, yes, they raised guidance and yet it falls 8%. The bears might say haha, but the bulls would say, look, we went into this thing trading at about 106 times sales and now we're trading only 80 times because they read their sales outlook and the stock's doing okay. Palantir, it tells you what people want to own and I think that speaks to what's going on in Hack.

[Chris Rohn]

You're commenting about this move in the after hour session on earnings, Palantir's drop.

[Tim Seymour]

Yeah, I mean the stock has also doubled since the April lows. A remarkable move that, you know, I think people got very bearish near the lows as they typically do. The stock has rallied. Maybe some profit taking here.

[Chris Rohn]

Yeah. All right, up next, final trades. Time for the final trail. Let's go around the horn. Tim Seymour.

[Dan Nathan]

The theme that's kind of been woven into tonight's show is that a lot of these companies talked about seem to be coming to the top end of a range here. And I think if you want to buy tobacco stocks here, they're going higher. I think they've been going higher in fundamentals. BTI is one.

[Tim Seymour]

Chris Barone Long CrowdStrike CRWD. This entire cyberspace is very strong relative leader.

[Chris Rohn]

Great to have you on tonight. Thank you. Guy Dami.

[Guy Adami]

I'd like to take a few seconds to talk about something. He won't be here tomorrow and I will mention it tomorrow, but hashtag smooth will be celebrating a birthday tomorrow.

[Chris Rohn]

Meaning Tim Seymour, of course.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah.

[Dan Nathan]

Thank you.

[Chris Rohn]

Some people might not know Valero for his birthday.

[Dan Nathan]

Thank you.

[Chris Rohn]

Thanks for watching. Fast Mad Money starts now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money.

[Melissa Lee]

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[Chris Rohn]

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[Melissa Lee]

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[Chris Rohn]

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