CNBC's Fast Money — December 3, 2025

Episode Theme:
Oil: The Next Gold? & Microsoft Pushback Against AI Growth Report

Overview

Tonight’s Fast Money episode zeroes in on a possible inflection in the energy trade: Has “black gold” (oil) finally set a bottom after a rough year, and could it play catch-up with actual gold, which has had a historic run in 2025? The roundtable also debates Microsoft’s denial of a slowdown in its AI software sales, discusses Nvidia’s regulatory lobbying in DC, reacts to key software earnings (Salesforce, Snowflake), unpacks Macy’s cautious holiday outlook, and reviews Trump’s relaxed auto emissions standards.

Key Topics & Discussion Highlights

1. Oil vs Gold: Is Oil the New Gold?

[00:48 – 16:33]

Energy Markets in Focus

• WTI crude oil finishing a tough year, trading mostly in the $60s—its worst stretch since 2020.
• Energy stocks (XLE, Oil Services ETFs) have lagged the broad market, while gold has surged (+60% YTD with 49 record closes; miners like Anglo Gold, Kinross, Iamgold, Newmont have more than doubled).
• Chartist Carter Worth argues oil prices could now turn higher.

Panel’s Debate

• Guy Adami: “I think valuation finally is becoming compelling ... these companies are run better, their balance sheets are better, and quite frankly, valuations are something that compelling. So I think they can continue to go higher from here.” (02:42)
• Karen Feinerman: Compares oil’s beaten-down state and new investor rotation to what happened in pharma/healthcare: “The space was so beaten down ... just so compellingly cheap that money ... just found it. This is a similar type of thing.” (03:23)
• Steve Grasso: “I think oil stocks ... run more efficiently, their cost of production is lower ... I think it’s better.” (05:24)
• Dan Nathan: Suggests ETF exposure (Chevron, Exxon big components), technical setups attractive, names like Valero & Marathon also interesting. (05:48–06:17)

Guest Insight — Peter Boockvar, CIO OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners

• “There seems to be an extreme amount of bearishness priced into a barrel of oil ... But what investors are missing is the influence of US production... more and more signs that US shale production is rolling over.” (07:11)
• “Gold to oil ratio is at a record high, pointing to how dirt cheap the price of oil is.” (08:30)
• Thinks both commodities are worth owning but sees “more upside in oil” than in gold from here. (09:06)
• On Ukraine war’s effect: “$60 a barrel is pricing in almost no geopolitical risks ... I don’t see the market really pricing in ... any geopolitical risks whatsoever.” (09:36)
• On demand & growth: “A lot of the global demand for oil is coming from emerging markets ... demand ... is going to steadily increase, but again mostly coming from emerging markets.” (10:41)

Notable Quote:

“The weighting of energy stocks in the S&P is 2.8% ... an historic low ... there is a growing supply issue coming out of the U.S ... [and] from a risk reward perspective, if my downside is call it 10 bucks ... and I believe over the next coming years oil is going to be $80 to $100, and even 80 to 100 on an inflation-adjusted basis would still be dirt cheap.”
— Peter Boockvar (07:11, 12:25)

Roundtable Skepticism

• Steve Grasso: “I think you could possibly see oil in the 30s over the next couple of years, not higher than 70.” (13:49)
• Karen Feinerman: Lower oil (near $30) means “a lot of other things are going wrong” (14:08)
• Guy Adami: Sees range-bound oil as not bad for stocks, sees current rotation as more about flows than macro shifts. (14:50)

On Gold vs Oil in 2026

• Guy Adami: “Gold basically doubled this year. So you need crude oil to go from 60 to 120 next year...I’d still rather gold here than oil.” (15:49)

2. Microsoft Pushes Back on AI Sales Growth “Slowdown”

[27:10 – 40:49]

Microsoft Responds to “The Information” Report

• Earlier, “The Information” claimed MSFT lowered AI sales quotas due to customer resistance. MSFT publicly refutes this: “Aggregate sales targets have not been lowered.”
• Brent Thill, Jefferies (Buy rating, $675 target):
  “Everything we’re seeing ... suggests that demand is accelerating. ... I think there’s a silver lining: many of the companies came out of the gate [with] pricing that was too high. ... Pricing needs to come in a little bit to get adoption higher.” (33:10–35:18)
  • Agents (“AI agents”) still very young tech—“in infancy,” will need years to mature.
  • 2026–2027 expected as inflection years for enterprise AI revenue.
  • Software multiples “undervalued” in his view; sees potential for higher valuations if AI thesis plays out.
  • Commoditization concern is “way too early.”

Notable Quote:

“You can’t walk in any new product and effectively just charge a premium ... I think there’s going to be a battle for who builds these agents ... For Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, they have the infrastructure ... the agents have to have a home.”
— Brent Thill (35:46)

Roundtable Adds

• The “era of agents” in AI is still forming—cloud and infra names should benefit.
• “Nvidia has been at a declining trend line for the last month ... their 4-6 main customers are about to become their main competition.” (21:36, Grasso)
• “At some point, ... if prices have to be lowered ... there should be some pressure on Nvidia’s 59% margins.” (39:33)
• Ownership tip: “If what you’re saying is right ... IGV [software ETF] ... is the place to be.” (40:49)

3. Nvidia & AI Regulation — CEO Jensen Huang’s Capitol Hill Meetings

[16:33 – 21:52]

• CEO Jensen Huang meets with Senate Republicans & President Trump, urging consistent federal AI regulation over state-by-state patchwork.
• Jensen Huang: “State by state regulation would ... drag this industry into a halt ... create a national security concern ... Federal AI regulation is the wisest.” (17:23)
• Democrats (Warren) protest exclusion from these meetings, call for public, not private, testimony.
• Panel muses on Nvidia’s lobbying, competitive threats, China policy, and role of export controls.
  • “He’s been talking a lot ... what is he so concerned about? ... 75% gross margins are not going to be enjoyed in perpetuity.” (20:53, Adami)
• Concern: AI custom chip competition rising (e.g., Marvell/Amazon Trainium).

4. Software Earnings: Salesforce & Snowflake

[23:57 – 27:10]

• Salesforce (CRM): Jumping post-earnings, strong AgentForce AI adoption (+70% accounts in production, revenue up 330% YoY, $500M in Q3), upbeat guidance.
• Snowflake (SNOW): Slight outlook/margin disappointment despite top-line beat; partnership with Anthropic mentioned.
• Salesforce CEO Benioff (soon on Mad Money) is “talking about agents,” no direct comment yet on MSFT’s sales growth denial.
• Panel take: “Valuation is not ridiculous. I think you’re going to see a relief rally in the next couple of weeks.” (25:58, Adami)
• AI interoperability: Some clients (e.g., Carlyle) scaling back Microsoft Copilot, topics around software stack integration bottlenecks.

5. Macy’s: Optimism Meets Holiday Caution

[29:09 – 31:41]

• Macy’s beats Q3 estimates, raises full-year guidance, but warns of “more discerning” consumer amid holiday uncertainty.
• CEO Tony Spring: “Consumers are more discerning about how and where they spend their dollars.” (29:35)
• Panel reaction: Pragmatic caution, recognizes “shrinking” strategy is working, but sees management as possibly too conservative.
• Karen Feinerman: “The cautious choiceful consumer, we’ve heard that phrase a lot ... expect comp sales decline ... I think they’re probably being overly cautious.” (29:35)
• Steve Grasso: “You buy it on this dip ... closing underperforming stores is a good thing.” (30:25)
• Guy Adami: Technicals: Needs breakout above $24 for confirmation. Would rather buy strength than dip. (30:36)

6. Trump’s Relaxed Auto Emission Standards

[41:14 – 44:28]

• By 2031, new standards will require just 34.5 mpg (vs. Biden’s 50.4 mpg target).
• Policymakers claim reduced regulation will save automakers $1,000 per vehicle—but panel is skeptical buyers will see savings.
• Steve Grasso: “Americans want big cars and Ford and GM now get to make the cars people are buying ... it’s a tailwind for both.” (44:02)

7. Other Fast Takes

Uber’s Robotaxis in Texas:

• Uber launches with Avride on a commercial robotaxi roll-out.
• Panel: Sees Uber as best play for autonomous margin expansion, with long-term cost savings, but Google/Waymo also cited as a risk.
• “Autonomous is the biggest tailwind ... it’s going to increase their margins by 50% ... decrease cost by 70%.” (45:47, Grasso)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Valuation finally is becoming compelling for [energy] ... these companies are run better, their balance sheets are better ... I think they can continue to go higher.” — Guy Adami [02:42]
• “The weighting of energy stocks in the S&P is 2.8% ... which is an historic low ... there is a growing supply issue coming out of the U.S.” — Peter Boockvar [07:11]
• “$60 a barrel is pricing in almost no geopolitical risks.” — Peter Boockvar [09:36]
• “Gold basically doubled this year. So you need crude oil to go from 60 to 120 next year. ... I’d still rather gold here than oil.” — Guy Adami [15:49]
• “State by state regulation would drag this industry into a halt and ... create a national security concern.” — Jensen Huang (Nvidia) [17:23]
• “I think that ... pricing needs to come in a little bit to get adoption higher. ... All these [enterprise AI] products are less than a year old.” — Brent Thill (Jefferies) [35:18]
• “At some point, ... there should be some pressure on Nvidia as well.” — Melissa Lee [39:33]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Oil vs Gold Debate: 00:48 – 16:33
• Microsoft/AI Sales Growth Report: 27:10 – 40:49
• Nvidia AI Regulation: 16:33 – 21:52
• Salesforce & Snowflake Earnings: 23:57 – 27:10
• Macy’s Holiday Outlook: 29:09 – 31:41
• Trump's Auto Emissions Policy: 41:14 – 44:28
• Uber Robotaxis: 44:43 – 46:09

Final Trades

[46:17]

• Steve: General Motors
• Karen: Ulta (expecting good earnings)
• Guy: Netflix (shout-out to former colleagues)
• Melissa: (N/A in transcript)

Bottom Line

This episode frames the year-end debate: Will beaten-down oil rally like gold did this year, or is the upside contained? Panelists are mixed but see rotational factors and improving oil company management as positives. Microsoft’s pushback against skepticism in AI sales is met with cautious optimism by analysts, who believe the AI wave is just getting started—though margins and pricing battles loom. Meanwhile, regulatory winds for autos and ongoing uncertainty for the consumer shape sentiment into the new year.