CNBC's "Fast Money" – Oracle’s Halo Effect… And CME Group CEO On Retail Trading

Date: September 10, 2025
Host: Melissa Lee
Panel: Karen Feinerman, Courtney Garcia, Vonnie Quinn, Dan Nathan (from Robinhood Summit, Las Vegas)
Key Guests: Ben Reitzes (Melius Research), Terry Duffy (CME Group CEO), Sharam Faladar Mercer (Signos CEO)

Episode Overview

This episode centers on Oracle's unprecedented stock surge and its wide-reaching implications for tech and AI stocks. The panelists dissect the state of the AI investing cycle, debate concerns of an AI bubble, and explore the ripple effects across hyperscalers, data centers, and power suppliers. Additional highlights include Klarna’s IPO debut, The Trade Desk’s competitive headwinds, trends in retail trading with CME Group’s CEO, and the unveiling of a new FDA-approved wearable device for weight management by Signos.

Segment-by-Segment Summary

1. Oracle’s Monumental Rally and Its “Halo Effect”

[01:01-19:07]

Key Points:

• Oracle Stock Soars: Shares surged up to 43%, tacking on $244B in market cap—the best session since 1992. Oracle nears becoming the next “trillion-dollar tech stock.”
• Driver: Remaining Performance Obligations (RPOs)—a key bookings metric—quadrupled year-on-year; rumored $300B deal with OpenAI for computing power (one of the biggest cloud deals ever).
• Winners & Losers: The rally spilled over to Broadcom, Nvidia, AMD, Taiwan Semi, Micron, data center firms, and power suppliers. However, Amazon and Salesforce both fell over 3%.
• Debate Ensues: The panel questions the sustainability and valuation of Oracle post-pop, the possibility of an “AI bubble,” and the implications for peers.

Panelist Insights & Quotes:

• On Oracle’s Magnitude:
  • Karen Feinerman (03:40):
    “This is just a frenzy now to own this stock… AI is in the early innings, but this is not a linear thing… I wouldn't be short it, but to buy some puts, I think the risk-reward got compelling.”
• Broader AI Capex Context:
  • Courtney Garcia (05:03):
    “Since April, this really has been the AI Jason… this does show some sustainability. The change in the rate of adoption does not necessarily mean the addressable market is lower.”
• Valuation Concerns:
  • Vonnie Quinn (06:45):
    “It almost seems like an error… They're now trading about 45, 46 times forward earnings, much more than Microsoft or Amazon.”
• Macro Caveats:
  • Dan Nathan (07:52):
    “We just don't know if this backlog materializes… If you're finally joining the party here, up near a trillion-dollar market cap, I think you're kind of doing it wrong… This is a bit frothy right here.”

Notable Quote:

"This stock had a $680 billion market cap yesterday. If you're finally joining the party here... I think you're kind of doing it wrong."
— Dan Nathan [09:30]

2. Is This an AI Bubble? Tech Analyst Perspective

Guest: Ben Reitzes, Melius Research
[10:02-16:37]

Key Points:

• No Bubble, Yet: Reitzes argues the AI trade is in its early stages and raises Oracle’s price target from $270 to $370.
• Growth Epoch: Oracle’s big RPO jump is real, but the true financial inflection is projected from FY2028 onwards, depending heavily on OpenAI’s stability and ongoing CapEx.
• Inferencing’s Surprise: The rise of “inferencing” (AI serving answers, not just training) creates a historic “razor and blades” business model driving demand further.
• Risks Noted: If OpenAI’s business falters or funding doesn’t materialize (e.g., from SoftBank), the RPO and Oracle’s growth could stall.

Analyst Quotes:

• Ben Reitzes (12:36):
  "If they can get the RPO converted to revenue, it's going to work. The big risk is whether OpenAI can pull off getting funding and keep growing, because their cash flow is negative."
• Ben Reitzes (13:55):
  "Inferencing has turned into just this huge, huge razor and blade… the best razor and blade model, perhaps, of all time… It’s catching everyone off guard."
• Ben Reitzes (16:37):
  "We're seeing Broadcom having $400 to $500 billion in revenue by the end of this decade… Nvidia can lose share and still get $600 to $800 billion in revenue if I'm right on the TAM."

3. Market Reactions: Rates, CPI, and the Fed

[19:07-20:58]

• Rates Slide: The 10-year Treasury nears 4% ahead of CPI; unexpected drop in wholesale (PPI) prices stirs hope for a dovish Fed move.
• Market Reactions: Panel surprised markets didn’t rally more strongly; expectation builds that a Fed rate cut is imminent if CPI data corroborates.

Notable Quotes:

• Vonnie Quinn (19:41):
  “If this is a trend, you’d actually see deflation, but it’s way too soon to say that.”
• Karen Feinerman (20:23):
  "If you were on the fence about the Fed cutting… you have to think they must cut."

4. Hot IPO: Klarna's Debut

[22:47-24:40]

• Klarna IPO: Opens at $52, above its $40 IPO price, but closes up just $5. Market cap: $17B (down from $46B peak in 2021).
• Skepticism: Panelists question the sustainability of Buy Now, Pay Later models as labor market vulnerabilities rise; see increased risk of delinquencies if unemployment rises.

Notable Quotes:

• Dan Nathan (23:22):
  “This did not trade well… A lot of these IPOs, they're not kind of newbies here. I just don't find it particularly interesting.”
• Karen Feinerman (24:24):
  “I do like Buy Now, Pay Later.”

5. Trade Desk Tumbles on Amazon Competition

[26:18-29:19]

• Stock Drops 12%: On Amazon and Netflix ad partnership news + Morgan Stanley downgrade.
• Concerns: Amazon’s ad platform eating into Trade Desk’s share; broader worries about Trade Desk’s growth, competition from Meta, Google, Netflix, and more.
• Valuation in Question: Falling toward five-year lows; panel sees fundamental challenges ahead.

Notable Quotes:

• Dan Nathan (27:45):
  “First revenue miss in 33 quarters… that's the sort of thing that just highlights a decelerating growth story.”
• Courtney Garcia (28:54):
  “If we break through those levels [of long-term support], it’s really tough to defend this name.”

6. Interview: Terry Duffy, CME Group CEO — The State of Retail Trading

[32:09-36:45]

Key Topics:

• Retail Trading Surge: Retail is fastest growing segment at CME, especially post-Robinhood partnership.
• Product Expansion: Robinhood announces futures trading, overnight index trading for retail clients.
• Markets Outlook: Current environment marked by record open positions, high hedging as markets price in Fed cuts and absorb macro uncertainties.
• The Power Shift & Future: Duffy sees a generational wealth transfer ($85T by 2040) transforming trading preferences; expects next big product will mix all asset classes, possibly driven by tokenization or blockchain.

Quotes:

• Terry Duffy (32:33):
  "People want access to markets… I truly believe that they should have that access whether they're institutional or retail."
• Terry Duffy (34:30):
  “We’re sitting at 135 million positions open on CME, which is not too far off a record… that tells me people are hedging up their exposures.”
• Terry Duffy (35:51):
  “Tokenization of cash markets is something that I think is very important for the efficiencies of cash markets.”

7. Wearables and Weight Loss: FDA-Approved Signos Device

[38:07-42:55]

• The Pitch: Signos is the first FDA-approved continuous glucose monitoring system explicitly for weight loss. Uses AI to provide real-time dietary and metabolic guidance.
• How it Works: A wearable sensor streams glucose data to an app, offering “nudges” about activity or eating to help manage weight.
• Panel Interest: Especially around research showing stabilized glucose can improve sleep quality.
• Market Position vs. GLP-1s: CEO describes Signos as complementary—not a competitor—to drugs like Ozempic.

Notable Quotes:

• Sharam Faladar Mercer (38:51):
  “It’s almost like a Bloomberg terminal for your metabolism.”
• Sharam Faladar Mercer (40:11):
  “It’s $129 a month and FSA/HSA eligible. We’re starting to work with insurers on reimbursement.”
• Courtney Garcia (43:02):
  “What particularly hits home with me is the deep sleep. If I can understand how my food decisions impact my sleep, I’d definitely be interested.”

8. Robinhood Goes Social, Expands Trading Tools

[43:29-45:52]

• Robinhood Social Announced: In-app platform lets users post trades, follow/comment on others—part of expanding the “trading lifecycle,” alongside new short selling, futures, custom indicators.
• Retail Energy: Dan Nathan reports from the Hood Summit: retail investors are “active, engaged, excited—more than just traders, they’re investors now.”

Quotes:

• Dan Nathan (44:16):
  “The most important thing… is this sort of social platform. We’re all sick of arguing with anonymous bots on Twitter, and this is a way to guarantee identity.”
• Courtney Garcia (45:38):
  “They found a way to democratize trading and now, with the social aspect, extend the life cycle of the customer."

9. Final Trades Roundtable

[45:57-46:32]

• Dan Nathan: “I like Karen's idea on the put calendar in Oracle.”
• Courtney Garcia: “On Oracle's earnings, I'm modestly cautious.”
• Karen Feinerman: “OIH has a ton of upside—hopefully, after a tough year.”
• Vonnie Quinn: “Energy space, XLE. It’s kind of that next gen of AI—you want to be in this space.”

Notable/Memorable Moments

• Dan Nathan: “If you’re finally joining the party here, up near a trillion-dollar market cap, I think you’re kind of doing it wrong.” (09:30)
• Ben Reitzes: “Inferencing is turning into the best razor and blade model, perhaps of all time.” (13:55)
• Terry Duffy: “By the year 2040, there could be roughly $85 trillion of wealth transfer to people of age 24 to 40… very different way of doing business.” (33:39)

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Start | End | |--------------------------------------|----------|----------| | Oracle’s Surge & Halo Effect | 01:01 | 10:02 | | Analyst Ben Reitzes on AI Bubble | 10:02 | 16:37 | | Rates, CPI, and Fed Outlook | 19:07 | 20:58 | | Klarna IPO | 22:47 | 24:40 | | Trade Desk Challenges | 26:18 | 29:19 | | CME Group CEO Terry Duffy | 32:09 | 36:45 | | Signos FDA-Approved Weight Wearable | 38:07 | 42:55 | | Robinhood Product and Social | 43:29 | 45:52 | | Final Trades | 45:57 | 46:32 |

Fast Money's Original Tone

True to form, Fast Money’s panel offered spirited, sometimes skeptical debate, focusing on actionable investor insights and challenging consensus thinking, with plenty of quotable candor—especially around inflated tech valuations and the ever-risky search for the next big growth wave.

Takeaways:

• Oracle’s AI-driven quarter is seen as a milestone event—perhaps a “line in the sand” for the market—but panelists urge caution on valuation and sustainability.
• The broader AI trade is still ramping up, not peaking, according to top tech analysts. Inferencing is a surprise demand driver.
• Retail trading is more empowered and product-rich than ever, as platforms like Robinhood, CME, and new fintech like Signos innovate rapidly.
• IPO enthusiasm remains selective (Klarna), and rising competition in ad-tech (Trade Desk) is top of mind.
• “Democratizing” investing—through social trading, education, and new product access—is reshaping both retail and institutional landscapes.