← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
Oracle’s Slide Continues… And Market Volatility Ticks Higher 12/17/25
00:43:33
Shares of Oracle take a hit as Blue Owl reportedly won’t back the company’s $10B data center in Michigan. What it means for the stock as it hits levels not seen since mid-June, and how it’s impacting the broader AI trade. Plus Volatility spiking as stocks sell off. What the uptick in stock swings mean for markets heading into year end, and how you can position your portfolio with a new year on the horizon. Fast Money Disclaimer
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B
Live from the NASDAQ market site right here in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Six month lows for Oracle, the latest hit to the software giant and what it may all say about the macro air trade. Micron on the move. Shares of Micron. It beat earnings, it beat revenue estimates. But what's the stock doing? We'll let you know and get all the details in the quarter and how to play Micron now. Plus HIHO Silver away the commodity setting yet another price record. Warner Brothers choosing its buyer. But will a deal with Netflix actually get done in Medline's market debut, the biggest IPO of the year getting off to a strong start. What is next for the stock and maybe what it means for the IPO market next year. Hi, everybody, I am Brian Sullivan in for Melissa Lee again tonight. Coming to you live from Studio B right here at the nasdaq. And on your desk, we've got Tim Seymour, we've got Karen Feinerman, we got Dan Nathan, and you will get a healthy dose of Guy Adam. Welcome, everybody. All right, let's start off with more signs of some growing investor concern over AI spending because Oracle today falling again. Stock fell about 5%. But Oracle now at its lowest level since June and has been cut nearly in half since its September highs. Today's hit came on a report in the Financial Times that a major investment firm called Blue Owl will not back Oracle's proposed $10 billion data center in Michigan. Blue Owl, by the way, a public company trading under the ticker owl. It was also down today. There you go. No Tootsie Roll included. Oracle hitting back at the report, calling it inaccurate. But that did not help the stock rebound. And while the stock falls, Oracle's debt risk is rising. The spread on its five year credit default swaps, anybody remember those in the subprime crisis? Of course you go, you don't need a graduation cap on an owl to know that those spreads keep going up. That spread has now more than quadrupled this year, which in plain English means the market's perceived risk on Oracle debt is rising. To be clear, that risk still low overall, but it is going up. Some of that hitting the macro Air trade, Alphabet, Nvidia, Broadcom, Palantir, all lower today. Even some of the infrastructure players pulling back. GE, Vernova down double digits. Oklo vistra among the big laggards as well. So Gaia dumb.
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D
Yes, sir. Welcome, by the way. Brian.
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B
Hi, by the way, how are you? Well, Merry Christmas.
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E
Almost.
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D
Well, no, it's not early.
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B
Nine days?
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A
Eight. Eight, Little eight.
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B
Is it too early?
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E
It's eight.
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A
No, it's not.
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E
I mean, let's do the Hanukkah thing, you know, you're right on time if you're doing that.
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B
Happy Hanukkah.
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E
Thank you. You too, Karen. Happy Hanukkah.
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B
Did I miss any? We go. All right. Careful. What. What is all this telling us? I understand, well, about. Thanks for watching everybody.
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A
Matt. Money.
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B
What is all this telling us about the high trade?
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D
One of the terms we've used is the sanctity of capex. And I think for a long time people felt like the Capex spend was somehow etched in stone as it came down from the mountaintop on one of the, you know, slabs of Fred Flintstone like granite. It's not etched in stone and I think we're learning that now. And I think the whole. Most of the market in my opinion is sort of built on this Capex spend. And if it's vulnerable and if you start questioning the financing around it, then you have problems. I'll say this in video to me is sort of ground zero. 167 was the low in September. We closed around 171 today. That's a bit of a line in the sand, but you get through there and people going to start talking about the reversals and moving averages being crossed. So Nvidia is the one you have to watch in this entire thing. Brian.
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B
All right, Tim Seymour, Nvidia down. Yeah, listen again. Down two and a half, 3%. It's not some huge haircut. I do worry that we don't. We wouldn't want to make too much of this, but Oracle is Oracle Its own thing or is it symbolic of something else?
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A
Blue Al may not love Oracle but Blue Horseshoe does love Anacott Steel just to be clear.
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C
Really.
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A
Anyway, so you know I, yeah, really, you know great. The, the fast money Wall street trailer by the way guy, it's unbelievable. It's a must watch. You can find it out there on the Internet.
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B
I you know Oracle to me holiday you may celebrate.
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A
Yes, well Oracle is being pushed well below the valuation it started here which is what's fascinating and ultimately they could make a decision to not be as capex heavy, to not necessarily chase the order flow from companies that may or may not be worth a half a trillion dollars or not. So what I think is more interesting on a day like Today, this is Mr. Glass half full is that the other 493 were flat effectively. That's not fair. But the equal weighted S and P is effectively flat and those that benefit from AI may actually be having a pretty good run here. So the market is a bit over its skis I think in some of these trades and I think there's a lot of momentum that still could, could come out here. But if you're looking to own Oracle, you know, unless they are going to spend like a drunken sailor, I think this is a valuation that you're getting any the optionality for free given their spending.
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B
Just be careful, you don't want to insult drunken.
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A
Look, I mean this is all going.
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B
To be debt spent. Sometimes they buy some good stuff debt fueled spending. And we're looking at a stock Dan Nathan that arguably has had an unbelievable run but yet we showed the credit default swaps. There's attention being paid to Oracle. What do you make of it?
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E
I mean it really hasn't had an unbelievable run relative to the other names you associate with this trade. I mean it kind of joined the party last year. It was a distant for fourth place in this cloud business. And to your point earlier, I mean they can spend however they want but they don't have the money to spend so they have to raise the debt. That's why a Blue Owl is so important to this build out for them.
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F
Right.
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E
If you think about the hyperscalers, you know they were already building these clouds and they were ready to build for you know, this AI sort of trade and they had many of them, their own models and if you're not, you're Amazon, you're investing in anthropic, you're investing supposedly an open air right now you're putting those models on your cloud service so you can sell that compute and folks, you know, their customers can use it. You know, the problem is Brian, and you just said this, you remember cbs, right? Credit defaults. Well, the last time we saw, you know, this is like okay, first inning sort of stuff is going to go back to the financial crisis. But the last time we really focused on that, you know, you would have thought a lot of these arrangements, a lot of these contracts between these financial institutions. You would think that there was some sort of sanctity, as Guy likes to say about those sorts of deals they had with each other. They were. Until they weren't. Right. And so when you think about some of this stuff, there can be some dominoes. And the other thing is if the market is saying that Oracle is not going to be able to fulfill these contracts, you know, from OpenAI and others, well, you would think Neo clouds like Core Weave would be trading much better. Right? Because they're the ones.
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B
I mean. That's right.
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E
So you understand my point. I mean like if they're the ones who are going to do excess sort of capacity when it comes to it. Thanks Tim. Thanks Tim. I was on a roll, I was on a roll there but I mean.
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G
You think Corey would be trading better?
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E
Well, I'm just saying because let's just assume that this company, listen, they are heavily indebted and they lose money. My only point is if you believe that there's all this demand for compute, then you would think that companies like Core Weave would be able to do it if Oracle is not able to do it. Right. Core Weave has contracts with Microsoft. They have Microsoft 70%. There's, there's so many bombs just waiting to kind of go off if this thing slows down. So to me, well listen, the other thing and we've been saying on this desk, if you see Oracle below 150 and you see that CBS above 200 bips, the government's probably going to come in and take a stake and probably try to stop.
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A
Why do they have to come in and take a stake? They haven't spent the money yet.
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E
Because Larry Ellison so far up, you know, I mean like this is like they don't have.
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A
You're acting like the company needs a bailout. They don't need a spent the money yet.
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E
But it's also the psychology, Tim. If you're thinking about this as like kind of this bipolar sort of trade between China and us, this deal, Stargate, these other things, it's kind of important. I mean if you think about it, right, like so if we're going to allocate all of this capital. Ultimately, these things will get bailed out. They're going to have to.
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G
So you would ask, is Oracle the center? Open Air is the center. But we don't really know. We don't really know. Right. So we don't really know what's going on there. But I think, I have no doubt that we're still early in AI. But that doesn't ever mean that the stocks will trade at exactly, you know, in tandem with whatever the demand is. So it's. It. As the credit default swaps go up, the price of doing these deals goes up. The deals are then less attractive if you have to spend more on financing. So that you would think would dampen demand as well as all the things I know you like to bring up, where's the power coming from? Where's the approval from whatever, you know, local authority there might be that could put the brakes on this one sort of tangent trade from that? I wonder, Metta, which has traded poorly on the, this, this giant spend, if they were to bring it in a little because either things can't be built or the price of what they thought the projects were is changing. That would actually, I think, be a.
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B
Positive for few things. And you nailed it. You nailed it. I think it's this stock show. Open Air is a private company, so it's. You can't, we can't really talk about it, but OpenAI is kind of the center of like to your point, Karen.
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H
Right.
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B
It's kind of all of this. They're handing out gigawatts of power here and there. And a lot of people in the energy business I talked to were like, where are they getting all this power? Right. Because they don't make power themselves. They're making deals. If there was something to come out about OpenAI, then what. What happens?
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G
Something negative.
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B
Yeah, just some sort of headline. Cut back on spending or they're not going to fund this Code Red.
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G
I mean, it seems like there's a lot of negative sort of spinning around there. Orange was a code orange, maybe. What was Code Orange? I don't know. I mean, we were sort of thinking.
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B
Vital is Open Air to all of these stocks we talk about all the time.
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G
It is. I mean, when you think about Oracle, which is, okay, that's the public. Is that the public center of this? I think Core Weave is also somewhat of a proxy there. By the way, I covered core. I'm no longer short core weave. I just feel it was a good trade. You covered it, yes, but I'm long down long in video and long, you know, I got a lot of. I'm long a lot.
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B
But you made a fortune on core weave because the stock was 183 a.
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G
Few months ago there in the 130s and now it's 65 now I covered a little higher. Anyway, so if Oracle is the center, then what propelled them, we all know, is that giant backlog growth rate, that extraordinary future sales of, you know, 500%. Yes.
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E
Yeah.
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G
Not remaining performance obligation. What?
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E
Not run past option, but oh, purchase.
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G
Remaining remaining performance obligation. Yeah. So if that goes down, I don't, I mean it's reflecting, I think the stock that. Yeah, you're saying it's in the price somewhere.
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A
Isn't the point here, the point that you're making and you said was a great point and it's related to what Dan said, which. In which I said I don't think so, is if they all just pull back a little bit on the, on the spend, it doesn't mean demand's not there. It doesn't mean Oracle's going out of business. It doesn't mean that in video is not still. You know, maybe they're not at 76% gross margin, but. But the point is that demand right now is outstripping any normal type of rational ROI decision. And the conversation we had even before Oracle got this far down the road on this desk was that they were trading high margin software recurring inventory for very low margin business. That they then came out and said, not as low margin, but we're going to be the lowest of the bunch. And I just think that it doesn't have to go down like that. And ultimately it gets back to a company that now is trading as if open air didn't exist. I'm not, I don't even, I'm not even long Oracle folks. So, so it's not as if I feel like I need to defend a long position. I'm just saying that I think it.
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B
Won'T need a bailout.
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A
Well, I'm saying what Karen said. We've already seen it with Metta. When they tap the brakes, the market response, forget bailout.
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E
It really is about sentiment. And I don't believe that this stock is the center of the universe. I think it's obviously open AI, it's in video. It's about, you know, the big hyperscalers. We haven't seen any problems other than the fact that Microsoft and Metta don't trade particularly well. Nvidia doesn't either. And again, stocks are allowed to not trade well at certain periods. Right. I just don't think Oracle, in the grand scheme of things is that important to the ecosystem. What I think it's important is from a sentiment standpoint. So when you're seeing the CBS blowout, if you're seeing the stock crater, you know, that's why I believe at some point you're going to get some sort of headlines that's putting some sort of floor in this thing, because go back to January when Stargate was announced. Larry Ellison was in the White House, Sam Altman was in the White House, Masa sun was in the White House. They haven't funded this thing. And Elon Musk said within an hour of that meeting, he said they don't have the money. I mean, Elon's pretty prescient when you think about it. So again, to me, it's about sentiment. It's also about, you know, the way we're competing with China. And if we have these sorts of blowups, it doesn't make us feel or shouldn't make the world feel a whole heck of a lot better. And by the way, the rest of the world is using open source models and they're spending far less than we are. And we're spending hundreds, if not trillions by the end of the decade on this. And that might be the biggest misallocation of resources the world has ever seen.
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B
It's a great discussion, obviously, one that brings passion. We're going to continue it, kind of expand it right now because demand for AI infrastructure keeps growing. But a bit of a red flag is being raised on financing some of these data centers. Diana Olik here now with the property play on data center. Diana, you just heard all that discussion and we talked so much about all the investors getting in, but there are also now some that are either getting out or sitting out.
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H
Yeah, I mean, look, Brian, you know, I am all about the buildings. That's all I focus on. And I'm hearing that commercial real estate investors are increasingly concerned about hyperscalers and who are turning to private equity rather than just funding the buildings themselves. They're entering into these lease agreements, which could end up being risky if the technology changes. What does that mean? It means if it becomes more efficient and it no longer requires these huge buildings, these huge spaces. Actually sat down with billionaire developer Fernando De Leon, who he predicts, he predicts hyperscalers will be trying to get out of their leases earlier than expected.
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A
I look at a Data center that's $10 billion, right. First of all, there haven't been any exits above 4 or 5 billion dollars. You haven't seen comp. So that worries me quite a bit. Then I see large technology companies, the largest companies on the planet with $4 trillion market cap saying, I don't want to own this asset. I don't want to have this on my balance sheet. So I ask why? Why doesn't the largest company in the world want to own its own asset? That is very, very important to them. Business is everything for them today, for the large hyperscalers. And so they're saying, no, you, you build it, you finance it.
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H
So his concern is that when big private equity is left holding the bag because of all this risk, it's not their money, it's the investors in the funds. And guess what? That's your money. That's a lot of that in pension funds of everybody in the country.
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B
Brian yeah, it is. And there's also Diana, I know you cover this. On the property side. There's also been this huge pushback from just towns. They're worried about electricity rates. They're worried about water today.
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H
And NIMBYism is correct.
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A
Chandler, Arizona, you don't want it in your backyard.
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G
You don't want your electric bills going up.
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H
They're getting pushed back all over the country. I mean, I'm right by Virginia where it's data center central, but you're seeing pushback in regions all over the country, small towns. So the politics of this, if you look at some of the forecasts for the commercial real estate market in 2026, a lot of it on the data center sign is concerned about politics, local politics, pushing back on these data centers.
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B
Yeah. Chandler, Arizona Today five nothing to vote or yesterday voting down a new they got a lot of water issues in Arizona. I get it. But still, the public pushback maybe the great variable. We're not talking enough about. Diana, look, thank you very much. All right. Switching gears a bit. I mean, it's related. We've got an earnings alert on Microsoft Share. Microsoft. That's what I get.
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D
Micron read the teleprompter too quickly and.
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B
That'S what happens reading the teleprompter.
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A
By the way, in Brian's defense, I mean, the guy barely reads the teleprompter.
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B
Does it all by himself. I actually try to ignore the tell.
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A
He actually tries to make it up.
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D
You're right.
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So it's a compliment.
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B
Jim Seymour, you're my favorite Fast Money star. Christina Parsonevolis, what's happening with Micron, not.
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H
Microsoft Micron memory chip maker. Well, the guidance is getting attention for the February quarter. They're guiding to earnings of 4 to $8.42 per share versus what the street was anticipating at 449. That's nearly double what analysts expected. The driver is memory chip pricing. Higher average selling prices are boosting profitability as supply stays very tight. The CEO saying on the call that despite significant effort, the company can't meet customer demand in 2026. The bottleneck one of them is clean room space, the specialized facilities needed to make these chips. Chips lead. Time for building out that capacity are getting longer, which means tight supply persists beyond 2026 on high bandwidth memory used in AI. Micron now sees that market hitting $100 billion by 2028, which you're reading in your email right now, tim, up from 35 billion this year. That $100 billion number is arriving two years earlier than previously planned. The flip side though, is higher memory prices mean higher costs for anyone building data centers or infrastructure. That pricing pressure could feed into broader inflation concerns for tech spending. And one last thing, right as it was coming to set, he also said that he is increasing capex specifically for construction too. So that you saw like a little uptick in the stock.
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B
I mean, that's the news that we kind of talked about at the top of the show, right, Tim, this the news we need to hear. We want to hear that the spending on whatever it is for continues to grow.
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H
And so this CEO is not only saying that he is also, he spoke to how AI is helping productivity within his firm and how many employees are using, which I thought was a very bold statement because most CEOs don't add a 30% productivity increase because of AI. So he's saying a lot of positive things and it's quite a strong reaction in the stock too.
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A
Well, and speaking of construction, I mean, he's on the tape here. He's talking about how construction of the New York Fab is going to begin in 26 and it's going to be operational by 2030. I mean, at least in terms of what people want to begin to model out, what it means. But in the short run, what he's saying is that the spot market continues to be so strong that the contract pricing now at the next several quarters is reflecting the current spot market, which is amazing. So again, Micron is that much more insulated from even the first part of the conversation because their business, at least right here now, is based upon reality. And reality in Terms of memory and the things that we all know are at one point were very commoditized. There's about three companies in the world that do this really, really well and they're one of the three. And as much as I have not been a fan of Micron, I'm not talking about this like I've been gangbusters on it at times. I have felt that we were over our skis and that on some level there wasn't that big of a moat. I'm not sure I'm chasing this move, but I think this is an important conversation relative to the one we started the show with because this is real, this isn't magic, and this is business that's accountable.
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D
Now historically highly cyclical. I mean this quarter suggests maybe they're not anymore. Now again, I was a skeptic as well going in, but you just look at a couple things. I mean, operating margins were 47% this quarter. This quarter last year was 27 and a half percent. Free cash flow was almost $4 billion. The street was looking for about $370 million. It's extraordinary quarter. And the guide was good too. I'll say this, this quarter and the guide should get us through the prior all time high, which was 265 to Tim's point. If it doesn't, it's telling you something in terms of the chase.
- [21:04]
B
I got a question I probably can't answer.
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G
Okay, well I'll throw it out there so you might know. So as you talk about cyclical businesses, so when there's a dearth of supply, you get a bulge in orders. Right. And so there's this sort of. Is it a fake sort of double ordering or you know that phenomenon, channel stuffing. Yeah, well, not channel stuffing. Yeah, you need it. Right, Right. You'll order access and hope you get half vax. And what we saw with during COVID Really we saw with everything.
- [21:38]
H
Yeah.
- [21:38]
G
Shoe, everything.
- [21:39]
H
Well then isn't that what they say? The bring forward demand in many go forward. Yeah, forward. They denied that. And he didn't say anything on the call thus far about that. I feel like we actually haven't heard that question asked in quite some time. I think two things. One, about the pricing. I wonder if it's the peak now that's the. I think what, why we're not seeing an even bigger reaction in the stock price. And then you just brought up the New York Clay facility that's been delayed like crazy to Diana's report right before us, which plays right into that. You have all these companies making promises. Micron's New York clay location is a perfect example how things are not going as planned.
- [22:18]
B
Well said. A good look at Micron stocks up 8% right now. Big, big move for MU. Christina, thank you very much. All right, on deck. The latest on the Warner Brothers brawl and why the company's chairman says the choice. It should be easy. Plus a silver surge. How high can silver go? Ho, ho, ho. We're back after this. The heaviest metal credit card of all time. Rumored to be one of only 18 in existence. Plated with the very same tungsten that.
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- [24:15]
B
All right, welcome back to Fast Money. The battle of big media heating up even as shares of Warner Brothers Discovery they fall a bit. Could Paramount maybe come back in with a higher bid? Is this fight over? It's a lot to do and a lot to know. Julia Boorstin has more. Julia.
- [24:33]
H
Well, not over yet. Even though Warner Brothers Discovery officially recommending that its shareholders reject Paramount's offer today, Warner Brothers Discovery writing, quote, the terms of the Netflix merger are superior. Going on to say Paramount Skydance has consistently misled Warner Brothers Discovery shareholders that his proposed transaction has a, quote, full backstop from the Ellison family. Meanwhile, Netflix co CEO Greg Peters saying on CNBC today that regulators will see their deal as pro consumer. Meanwhile, Paramount responding by urging shareholders to choose its $30 per share all cash offer CEO David Ellison saying, quote, I've been encouraged by the feedback we have received from Warner Brothers Discovery shareholders who clearly understand the benefits of our offer going on to say we will continue to move forward. The question is, as they move forward, whether Ellison and Paramount Skydance increase their offer, which Ellison said last week was not their best and final offer. Now, all of this comes as today, YouTube announced that it secured the rights to stream the Academy awards starting in 2029. This is yet another sign of the lines blurring between linear TV and streaming. And that may support Netflix's antitrust defense that it is competing with YouTube as well as the traditional media and traditional streaming players. Brian?
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B
Yeah, it's all very fascinating. Julia Boorstin, thank you very much. Karen Fineman, is there a stock play here? And if so, what is it?
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G
Well, I'm long wbd. I gotta say, I was very surprised that they came out with this. And you read why. You read it makes sense and why. But there's the $30 in cash. On the face of it does seem superior if you got comfortable with their financing. So that's a big sort of if that they hold out the Paramount bid. Right. So Paramount, I guess what will happen next is Paramount, their deadline will come. It's just really for show. They're not in a position to be able to close the deal. But will shareholders. Will they get a big pool of shares tendered into their $30 offer, which won't. The deal won't close right then. That's not. But it's just a sign of. All right, shareholders making their voice heard. So given this recommendation from the board, I don't think Netflix at the moment needs to do anything. I thought yesterday I would have said Netflix, I think needs to bump next. But at the moment, I don't think.
- [26:55]
B
That'S what needs to adding Warner Brothers. Assuming this closes, Netflix wins it. Ultimately, they add the Warner Brothers movie library because they're not adding tnt, TBS or cnn. It's just the movie library and the TV library, Friends, things like that. Does it make it a more attractive investment, or does it Netflix?
- [27:12]
G
Yeah, I think it's. I mean, maybe down the road, it makes them more indebted. Right. This is not a small purchase, as we know. This is. This is a very large purchase. I think, you know, I think Netflix sort of deserves the benefit of the doubt when it comes to creating value. They've done it again and again with small changes, giant changes. Remember, this is just the red mail. You know, DVD in the mail to change and then do Content and then to change. I mean, again and again. So I sort of think it deserves benefit of the doubt. I am long Netflix.
- [27:41]
B
I wish we could go back in time to all those people that said DVDs in the mail are never going to work. Remember that? Who's going to wait three days to watch a movie, Tim? Yeah, not going to happen.
- [27:52]
A
I don't know. But I've got a DVD library that I seem to be holding. What do you want to do? I don't know why I tell you what, Old school. On dvd, they give you a little couple extra clips that you don't see. You know, I mean, there's some extra good stuff there. The warriors, by the way. Caddyshack. I mean, we could go through my library.
- [28:07]
B
Library.
- [28:08]
A
And I think people would be happy. I'll say this, as a WBD shareholder, I want Paramount to be heard. The assumption that they can't make the bid is kind of all that Netflix is saying. If you're Warner Brothers, you can kind of understand why the Netflix bid is more interesting. It allows them to restructure Warner debts. It allows them actually to, to. To actually deal with some of the dynamics of their studio business. And again, there's some sense there's a better bid. There's.
- [28:34]
G
I just got to add one more thing in the background to the offer. It did say there is. There was a potential interested bidder in cnn. That part of the business.
- [28:44]
B
It was stars, which with a Z.
- [28:47]
G
Was the bidder fourth.
- [28:49]
B
It's been reported that it was a fourth amount of stars.
- [28:52]
G
Well, so part of what else is saying is the Netflix, you know, the WBD deal with Netflix would have that spun off and it's worth maybe only a buck. This makes it seem like it's worth more than that, which does add some heft to the Netflix deal.
- [29:08]
D
With proper respect to share, who's a.
- [29:11]
B
Big fan of the show, as Tim knows.
- [29:12]
D
Yeah, if I could turn back time, Brian, I wouldn't have said that crack about the prompter. Because, you know, as we all know, you are a pro.
- [29:20]
A
You.
- [29:21]
D
You transcend television. You don't need a teleprompter. So apologies for that, dummy. I will say this, though. Lionsgate is the one I think people should be paying more attention to because when the dust settles and people look at. Look for assets. Steve Cohen is building a position for a reason. Look at the recent price action in Lyon.
- [29:38]
A
I think that's the point though, is that the media assets have been underpriced and that private equity has come in and helped to determine value. And that's good. Which means that I think a lot of these companies, I bring this back to Disney. I still think this makes Disney assets.
- [29:52]
B
Worth more than they're even more valuable than they are.
- [29:55]
A
That's right, Brian. Not from a teleprompter either or I.
- [29:58]
B
Will have a response to that comment. Once somebody puts the prompter, there's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.
- [30:07]
A
Precious metals keep on rocking as silver hits a fresh all time high.
- [30:11]
B
Can the climb continue into the new year?
- [30:14]
A
And the best ways to play the rally next. Plus Stocks taking a breather with just a few trading days left in 2025.
- [30:22]
B
How can you navigate the volatility and set your portfolio up for the new year?
- [30:26]
A
You're watching Fast Money live from the.
- [30:28]
B
NASDAQ market site in Times Square.
- [30:30]
A
We're back right after this.
- [30:35]
C
Is it time to reimagine your future? The right business skills may make a difference in your career. At Capella University, we offer a relevant education that's designed to focus on what you need to know in the business world. We'll teach professional skills to help you pursue your goals like business management, strategic planning and effective communication. And you can apply these skills right away. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more@capella.edu and now a next level.
- [31:06]
A
Moment from ATT Business. Say you've sent out a gigantic shipment of pillows and they need to be there in time for International Sleep day. You've got AT and T5G so you're fully confident, but the vendor isn't responding.
- [31:16]
B
And International Sleep Day is tomorrow.
- [31:19]
A
Luckily, AT&T 5G lets you deal with any issues with ease, so the pillows will get delivered and everyone can sleep soundly, especially you. AT&T 5G requires a compatible plan and device coverage not available. Learn more@att.com 5G Network.
- [31:35]
H
What made you.
- [31:36]
C
Confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?
- [31:39]
H
I have no fear of failure.
- [31:41]
C
Trailblazing women, Changing the game One of.
- [31:44]
H
My favorite pieces of advice Think about what your boss's boss needs. Leadership can look in many, many different forms. It really does come down to just trusting yourself. Life is short and you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.
- [31:57]
C
Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and power players. New episodes every Tuesday, wherever you get your podcasts.
- [32:06]
B
All right, welcome back to fast money in HiHO. Silver away because Silver rising again. Trading now or earlier. Over 67 bucks an ounce set 6644 now. It's the first time it's ever been its level. And here's a random but interesting station. Silver is on pace for Its best year 1979. Silver certainly shining this year outperforming both gold and copper by the way, it's also outperformed the S&P 500. And it is not just the metal. The miners of the metal, the Heclas, the Newmonts, the Pan Americans, dare I say guy dummy, the Wheatons, all more than doubled or more this year. Still room to run.
- [32:49]
D
The miners are telling you that there's more room to run to the underlying commodity. We have been consistent on this for a while. Tim can speak to it. Silver, the cat is out of the bag. As much as people wanted to sort of keep a lid on it in the 50s, they unable to do it. And now here we are. Believe it or not, I think there's a lot of room left in silver. When I say a lot, it would not surprise me early next year to be talking about triple digit silver. And I think gold is still on its horse and the miners are backing it up. GDX is within a dollar or two of its all time high. Historically that does not really participate. It's participating because people believe it is true.
- [33:22]
A
This time I think you're going to see gold and silver and precious metals overall as a group up another 20% next year. There's nothing out there on both today's tape and the tape that's on the days when we're down and the tape when we're on up days that changes that silver's underperformed. Still, even with this outperformance year to date on a 10 year basis gold is traded over its 50 day almost 88% of the days this year. Which tells you what's going on not only in terms of the fundamentals but technically and where people are.
- [33:50]
B
Is this a dollar debasement trade? Is this an inflation trade? Is this something else trade?
- [33:55]
A
It's all of them. First of all, gold is an asset class is something that people are appreciating. Precious metals again I've been mentioning this GLTR which has the right mix of. To me it's kind of like buying the dollar basket when you want the breakdown of what the dollar is against the euro, the yen and the key crosses. You buy a basket of PGMs and you're buying the right mix which should still be 65% gold. There's nothing about this trade that changes and this is a trade that's been working for three years. And I would argue it's a trade that's been working for 25 years. And that's why it's not just about what we're talking about in terms of dollar debasement. It's a lot of things including diversification of central banks.
- [34:33]
B
Silver's up, miners up. A good year for those investors. All right, coming up, stocks down but volatility up. We're going to explain why. And may guy Dami may even mention the term theta bleed ahead here on Fast money. Believe I did that one missed a moment of fast.
- [34:51]
A
Catch us anytime on the go follow.
- [34:53]
B
The Fast Money podcast.
- [34:55]
A
We're back right after this.
- [35:02]
B
All right. Welcome back to FAST money. Stocks taking a big leg lower today. Oracle leading some of the tech names down down. The Dow shedding about half a percent. The S and P losing more than 1%. The NASDAQ down more than one and a half percent. Crude oil prices though, they did rise. Rare up move day for oil this year up about 3%. And guys, Politico reporting the Trump administration is asking U.S. oil companies if they are interested in returning to Venezuela. If and when President Nicolas Maduro does leave office, however he may leave it. But according to a report, the answers so far from the oil companies back to the White House have all been know. There's more talk also the president will speak on Thursday night at 9 what he may say on the IPO front. Medline surging 41% its first day of trading. Medical supply company, the biggest by the way, IPO of the year. It's got a market cap of nearly $54 billion. That stock did great today, up 41%. Unit was also higher today. The volatility index, The Vix closed above 17 for the second time this month. But with a slew of market holidays on the horizon, Wall Street's fear gauge might actually be higher than it appears. Mike co joining us now to break it down because Mike, we've got obviously got a couple of holidays, we got a half day and dare I mention I said it, the theta bleed.
- [36:31]
F
Yeah, well that's actually a great point. So you know, when you take a look at the Vix, what is it? It is basic, basically a 30 day look ahead on the implied volatility for the s and P500. But you know, one of the things that you just pointed out is that over the course of the next 30 days, we've got a couple holidays, we've got a half day next week A full day off and then we have a full day off the subsequent week. The bond markets actually have a, a little bit more time off than the equity markets do. And if you adjust for those things, I think that probably a truer measure of where the volatility index is right now is probably 18 and a half to 19. And I would add to that that if you look out to the options that expire at the end of January, one of the observations you will make is that the wings, that is the downside out of the money puts and the way out of the money calls have gone up even more than the at the money options have. So. So it does seem like options prices are anticipating some more choppiness than we've probably experienced over the course of the last six months. And I think that part of that stems from the fact that we have seen sort of roll off going on in, in some of the highest performing sectors year to date.
- [37:39]
A
Yeah, I think that's right, Mike. And I think you got a dynamic where if you look back to where we were last year, the best of the best of the holiday Santa Claus rally guy, you like that term, right? Ho, ho, ho. Happened really up through Thanksgiving and December was choppy and then we came into January and there were some dynamics obviously that still were very uncertain. What's interesting about 2026 is a lot of people actually feel policy wise, we're following through. Are you seeing anything further out there, Mike? In 26 it says things really calm down as you get into the first quarter.
- [38:08]
F
Calm down in the first quarter? Well, certainly not, I would say through January or February. I mean right now I would say that, you know, it's, it's kind of calm at the surface, but it's those wings that have been getting bit up which essentially indicates that there is sort of this increased alertness, if you will, that something big could be coming. Doesn't mean it will necessarily. And you know, in general I'm a bull on the market most of the time. But I will say that it does seem like there is some gurgling under the surface, as if some of that holiday indigestion is showing up a little early.
- [38:39]
B
Well, we do, I mentioned it, Mike, very quickly. We do have a president that's going to make an announcement tomorrow night about we don't know what. There's reports that maybe it has something to do with Venezuela that would seem to be some kind of a coiled spring. Is the options market expressing any of that?
- [38:55]
F
Yeah, well, I think that's exactly what this is probably indicative of those types of sort of macroeconomic uncertainties are exactly the kinds of things that get options prices on broad based indices like the S&P 500 elevated because that's going to be where that is going to show up most broadly. So you know, from my perspective it seems like there is a little bit of concern about these kinds of announcements and you know, there could be a knee jerk reaction that happens to risk assets as a result of it.
- [39:21]
B
Thank you very much, Mike Cohen. That that speech is tonight by the way. 9pm, not tomorrow night. It just feels like Friday. I wish it was. Tim Seymour thank you Mike Co. Thank you. All right, coming up, we are watching Coinbase, the crypto exchange rolling out a new slate of products. The CEO making comments about it. You'll hear them Fast Money back into all right, welcome or welcome back to Fast Money. Let's talk about Coinbase. Coinbase stock up a little bit about 2% right now. They've got some new roll apps coming in the app and Mackenzie Segala spoke with the CEO Brian Armstrong and has more. What is going on with Coinbase McKinsey Hey Brian.
- [40:03]
H
So Coinbase is rolling out a major slate of new features designed to turn its app into a one stop financial platform, adding stocks, more advanced trading and prediction markets while also doubling down on its on chain ecosystem and tools for businesses and developers. Now I just sat down with CEO Brian Armstrong and he insists this is not a copy paste of the Robinhood playbook. Coinbase already owns a massive crypto native audience and now he wants the main app to be the place that you trade everything, stocks, derivatives and prediction market contracts alongside a longer term roadmap aimed at eventually bringing equities on chain. But the space is getting crowded fast. Kalshee and Polymarket are battling it out and Robinhood just jumped deeper into sports by adding NFL event contracts last night. But Armstrong tells me that the point isn't just to trade outcomes here, it's to read the world in real time. And he thinks prediction markets markets can become a mass market information product.
- [41:01]
B
Maybe, you know, 1% of people use it as a trading asset class to trade and 99% of people are using it as a way to figure out what's going to happen, almost like a.
- [41:09]
A
Competitor to traditional media or maybe even entertainment.
- [41:13]
H
And that's the bet Coinbase wants outcome trading to become one more daily habit inside of its app as it builds toward being a next gen brokerage.
- [41:21]
B
Brian so you got Robinhood also getting into these prediction markets, leaning in as they would say, is this like the next big battleground for the retail trader?
- [41:35]
H
Absolutely. Coinbase is looking at what Robinhood has proven out over the past year. More than 11 billion event contracts traded. Its fastest growing product by revenue ever in Robinhood's history. A stock is up more than 200% year to date. Meanwhile, Coinbase is in the red, down about 5% on the year. And it sees this, this diversification as a way to bring new users into the ecosystem with this sticky product that they haven't offered before. A way to keep them there even when crypto prices are trading lower like they are today.
- [42:05]
B
Very quickly, incredibly important question. Where are you?
- [42:10]
H
I'm in Fort Mason, San Francisco. So Brian Armstrong is just inside of this building pitching the world on this new slate of products. And I just talked to him and I came out here to talk to you.
- [42:19]
B
Yeah, we saw the boats going by. Tim. Tim looked confused.
- [42:22]
A
It's a no, I look, I'm jealous. I mean I'm looking with a big smile.
- [42:27]
B
We're freezing.
- [42:27]
A
A very big smile on my face.
- [42:29]
B
All right, Mackenzie Seagal is great reporting. Thank you very much. All right, coming up, two big earnings reports on deck for tomorrow. How your traders are setting up for FedEx and Nike. More fast money in two minutes. All right, welcome back to Fast Money. We've got our eyes on two big earnings reports after tomorrow's close. You got FedEx and you got Nike. Now FedEx has actually been crushing it this quarter. Stocks up 20%. Nike though, not as much, down about 6%. So Tim Seymour, any positioning on either.
- [43:04]
A
One or both of us? I'm long Nike a little higher than this. I believe in the long term story here. I do believe that there's, you know, Elliott Hill's got a lot of work to do and I don't think it's a great time to be in athleisure and sneakers. I think they are starting to rise above. I think the innovation, it's not terribly cheap. But I'm comfortable owning Nike for the long term. FedEx I think is another story. I'll let Guy talk about it, but I would stay with transports.
- [43:28]
D
I think you can stay long FedEx 315ish was the prior all time high valuation has always been compelling. I think the finally hopefully they finally figured it out. Restructuring looking at their business is a little more critically. Margin should be better. I think you stay long FedEx in earnings.
- [43:46]
G
Well, like Tim, I'm long Nike also like Tim from higher, which is not relevant, but it feels relevant when you Own it. So I agree with everything you said. I mean, it's going to be a little while. They do seem to be having some momentum. They're certainly fixing the whole. The wholesale issue issue that they've had. We saw a little weakness in Foot Locker, which is now at Dick's, but I'm staying long.
- [44:07]
B
I like brand issue, though. At Nike. You see the kids, right, they're all wearing OC on cloud for now.
- [44:12]
A
There's.
- [44:13]
B
Yeah, for now. You think Nike ultimately comes back?
- [44:15]
A
They're wearing Nikes, too. I mean, I think it's. I think it's as much of an issue on margin and just really reappointing the business understanding where DTC is, which used to be a big part of why traded at the premium it did. So. So I'm comfortable with the brand.
- [44:30]
E
Yeah, I think Karen's right on Dicks and for everything that you just said. But I also think rather than FedEx, I'd probably go with UPS right here. The numbers are out. It really looks like it's kind of.
- [44:38]
B
Put in a bottom putting it. But that is not your final trade.
- [44:42]
G
Could be.
- [44:43]
B
Or is it. Is that.
- [44:43]
E
Are we doing it right now?
- [44:44]
B
No. But I was wondering if you're teasing ahead up next, your final trades.
- [44:53]
A
Catches any time time on the go.
- [44:54]
B
Follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this. All right, before final trades, we have time to get a quick check on Micron. Why we look at a Micron because the stock is soaring. It's up 8 and a half percent after hours. Better than expected earnings, strong guidance. The market likes Micron. MU is up 8.3%. All right. I did it just for you.
- [45:19]
A
You.
- [45:20]
B
It's a holiday miracle. The record time left for final trades. Tim Seymour, kick it off.
- [45:25]
A
Well, we like you, Brian, whether you read from the prompter or not. I'll tell you what. This has been a fun show, as it always is. And we talked about gold, which we're supposed to aem, which I believe is in guy's clam a couple of years ago, which tells you how long we've been talking about gold miners are getting upgraded. If for no other reason. The average price on gold in 26 models is looking between 42 and 40500 bucks an ounce. I'll use the rest of the time we have for final trade on gold. Let me.
- [45:51]
G
All right, so we, these boys love to touch on Japan and what's happening there with the yen, the JGBs. I actually think it's great for the stock market. Not that they would argue with that. But you want to hedge that currency because the yen does seem to get weaker almost all the time. XJ Currency Neutral yeah, many moons ago.
- [46:09]
E
On December 18th, there was a man who now very good looking was born. And it's not Brad Pitt, because he was definitely Brad Pitt was born on December 18. But tomorrow is also Guy Adami's birthday. He's not going to be on the set. Let's give it to him right here.
- [46:25]
B
How about that?
- [46:26]
F
How about that Guy?
- [46:27]
B
My final train. Blow him up on the social Guy, we got to go.
- [46:30]
D
Aging you Lionsgate Brian.
- [46:33]
B
I love you Brian Lionsgate. Thanks Brian. Thank you all. Thanks Watching for Thanks for watching. Mad Money starts now.
- [46:39]
C
All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer Is it time to reimagine your future? The right business skills may make a difference in your career. At Capella University, we offer a relevant education that's designed to focus on what you need to know in the business world. We'll teach professional skills to help you pursue your goals like business management, strategic planning, and effective communication, and you can apply these skills right away. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at Capella Eduardo.