← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
Reciprocal Tariffs Boost Stocks… And The Impact of RFK Jr’s Confirmation 02/13/25
00:42:59
Stocks taking a leg higher as President Trump lays out his plan for reciprocal tariffs. How those tariffs could impact markets, and what companies are saying about the effects on their businesses. Plus RFK Jr. passing a key vote to lead the Dept. of Health and Human Services. How one of Trump’s most controversial picks could impact the health care space, and the federal agency changes that could follow. Fast Money Disclaimer
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- [00:01]
Melissa Lee
Hello, I'm Laura Castleton with Janice Henderson Investors. Is a brighter future possible? At Janice Henderson we think it is. We work to help our clients achieve superior financial outcomes and fulfill our purpose of investing in a brighter future. Together. We never forget that this means our thinking and our investments are helping to shape millions of futures. At Janice Henderson, we are committed to.
- [00:22]
Tim Seymour
Helping you invest in a brighter future.
- [00:24]
Melissa Lee
To learn more, go to Janashenderson.com For 140 years MultiCare has been in Washington prioritizing long term solutions, partnering with local communities and expanding access to care. Together, we're building a healthier future. Learn more@mycare.org live from the Nasdaq marketsite in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Tariff Talk. President Trump signing a sweeping action on reciprocal levies and promising more are coming. What is will all mean for companies bottom lines and your portfolio. And confirmed one of the President's most controversial cabinet picks winning confirmation to lead HHS today, what RFK Jr. Could mean for U.S. health care and the stocks in the space. Plus, investors check out of Hyatt shares. Are Microsoft bond more attractive than Treasuries? And what is behind Intel's best week in 50 years? I'm Melissa Lee. Come to you live from Studio B at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Feiderman, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami. We start off with the very latest on the President's tariff. Tit for tat. Markets seem to breathe a sigh of relief after Trump signed a memorandum laying out his plan to impose reciprocal tariffs on other countries. But stop short of actually implementing any the S and P closing within a whisker of a record. The NASDAQ jumping a percent and a half and the yield on the 10 year treasuries dropping 10 basis points. For more on what we heard out of the White House today, we are joined now by Eamon Javors. Eamon.
- [01:53]
Eamon Javers
Hey there, Melissa. We'll take a live look. We've got tape feeding in right now of President Trump and Narendra Modi, the prime Minister of India. They are meeting at the White House today. Just a few moments ago they sat side by side in the Oval Office, took a few questions from the pool. We'll update you if there's any news coming out from that. They are expected to have a press conference here in just a short time. But earlier today I was in the Oval Office as the President signed this presidential memorandum directing his government to conduct a study on reciprocal tariffs. And the study will analyze the ways in which the United States needs to respond to tariff regimes around the world. The president in that meeting said that India is, in his view, one of the worst offenders on tariffs, charging too high of a price for American goods to come into that country. I asked the President what the timeline is on all that because that's what the market wants to know. How soon are we going to see these tariffs take effect? He turned that question over to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who had this to say.
- [02:53]
Melissa Lee
Our studies should be all complete by April 1st. So we'll hand the President the opportunity to start on April 2nd if he wants. So I think we'll be ready to go on April 1st and we'll hand it to the president and he'll make his decisions. But remember, if they drop their tariffs.
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Guy Adami
Prices for Americans are coming down.
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Melissa Lee
Our production is going up and our costs are going down.
- [03:21]
Eamon Javers
So, Melissa, what does that mean in real terms? Well, it means there's a tremendous lobbying opportunity now until that April 1 deadline when industries and governments around the world have the opportunity to talk to the West Wing, make their case for any exemptions that they want to have. Other countries can come to the United States and work out a side trade deal if they want. I think this is going to set off a massive wave of global tariff haggling between now and April 1st, and we'll see where we land on all that. But crucially for the markets, it means that the tariffs are not going in place today. And a lot of people as late as yesterday or this morning thought that might be the case. That is now not the case. And now you see what the market reaction is to that. Melissa.
- [04:02]
Melissa Lee
All right, Eamon, thank you. Amy Javers in Washington. The specter of tariffs increasingly becoming part of the earnings conversation. Of the S&P 500 companies that have reported Q4 results so far, more than 16 have said they are closely monitoring the situation. Many have been non committal about the impact. Tesla, General Motors, Mondelez, Cardinal Health and others saying it's too early to quantify the effect on their businesses. But Chipotle did say that tariffs on Mexico and Canada would have an ongoing impact of about 60 basis points on its cost of sales. And as we discussed yesterday, Ford CEO Jim Farley said tariffs would blow a hole in the US Auto industry and that so far he's seeing a lot of cost and chaos. So how can we expect these latest levies to shake out? We do have a one month reprieve Tim but companies are doing their backup plans right now and trying to forecast.
- [04:49]
Guy Adami
I think we're waiting and seeing. I mean companies also need to get out there and just like the Federal Reserve, they're going to say, well you know, we are concerned about this, but until they happen we don't really know. And that's really been the strategy. I applaud the White House for using the ability to use tariffs as a stick. Whether this follow through and whether there's actual long term pain from relationships that are bilateral and long term friends of the United States. I mean, you know, and if, if that hurts the friendship, then so be it. I mean that's the mentality here. And the White House has taken a very pragmatic view on whether, whether these things actually happen. So far we haven't really seen the follow through. So ultimately if I'm an automaker, I'm absolutely concerned and it's not as if the auto sector needed any more headwinds. And if you look at what the SARS data, so the, the annualized U.S. car purchase data, if you look at some of the margins, if you look at Ford as a company, even, even as they have struggled with some of their operations that have been not around the world, but even in this country, there's a lot to be concerned about. Doesn't, doesn't surprise me that the auto sector over the, over last weekend was lobbying very aggressively. So I think we kind of wait. But again, you know, yesterday was, was the day when the European reciprocal tariffs were going to come out. You heard 27 EU ministers say something on the tape and you heard a bunch of German companies. Those are some of the companies I was watching because I own a couple of them. Talk about the impact. It doesn't surprise me. Companies are saying what they're saying.
- [06:06]
Karen Feiderman
Pretty clear. The market is looking way past that. You say that. Why do you say it? Well, Vix below 16 is pretty clear to me. S and P 500 all time highs. That's pretty crystal clear to me. I mean there seems to be a lack of interest now and just even to talk about tariffs and what they potentially mean for the market. So it's back burnered to Tim's point. What today I thought was interesting and you sort of led with it. PPI today was hot by any. And if you'd said to me again we play the game last night, it's going to come in much hotter than expected. I said the markets again lambasted and yields would go even higher. But apparently some components in the PPI that feed into the PC were soft. So people are really grasping at straws here. I'll say this again, I do think rates are going higher. I'm shocked at how they perform today, but I think this was just a reprieve.
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Dan Nathan
So I think to your point, a couple of those things were medical services looking lighter for our next big inflation reading as well as airlines ticket price. So that may be partially what we were talking on our halftime call about what, what was weighing the airlines beside Hyatt. That might be it. Even that. All that together though I'm still surprised at how strong bonds were. Is it the tariff thing? I mean, I agree if India lowers their tariffs, that's better. But I do think we always talk about the animal spirits and how good that's been for, you know, just companies feeling positive and willing to spend money to grow. And I think this throws a wrench into it. You don't know what your costs are going to be. It's hard to really plan.
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Patrick Moorhead
Yeah, you know, one thing, like an auto industry for instance, you might see a surge of buying ahead of this if, you know, you have the CEOs of these companies come out and say, you know, it's going to blow a hole. I think. Was that an exact quote, you know, one way or another. I mean you also might see some activity where folks are buying a lot of these, you know, inputs to their manufacturing ahead of time too, which might skew Q1 growth to some degree. And if these reciprocal tariffs are put in place and then you have a scenario where maybe the global economy starts to slow if you do get into a tit for tat sort of trade war. So again what Karen just said, I mean the uncertainty is probably pretty good. But when you think about the playbook that we've seen from the first Trump administration, I think the baseline is most likely. When you have this much time for him to negotiate with these folks, the back and forth, the likelihood is that the worst case scenario is not going.
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Karen Feiderman
To happen, you know, but we mentioned sort of the lack of volatility and in a broader market. Without question. But we talked about this last night and it happened again today. I mean individual names, not small companies, multibillion dollar market cap companies, both to the upside and downside. Post earnings are moving up and down 15 and 20%. I mean the trade desk, I'm not picking on the company, but stock was down 30%. I mean that was a 60 something billion dollars company. So you're seeing some dramatic moves in individual names Me, I just think it's a matter of time given the backdrop of we've talked about for the last six minutes before it makes its way into the market.
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Guy Adami
I just think we have to be reminded that all this tariff talk and the speculation on inflation comes when we've had back to back prints that are awful. I mean it's not, there's no disinflation anymore. If anything, we really have inflation coming back. And the CPI, what we learned is that the core services CPI, 5.3%. I mean that's a nasty, nasty number. And if you look at the intermediate goods today in the pie, so some of these things are trickling all the way through. There's very little to feel good about about what's going on with inflation, with trends that have nothing to do with tariffs. So I think that's very important to Guy's point on volatility. I think there's absolutely relationship with the dollar and volatility. The dollar has given up ground, volatility has fallen. And if you look at where we are and it's part of, you know, what's going also in European and global stocks, they're outperforming the US and when you, you know, you may think when you own an ETF that it's really just about the underlying, it's really about the currency and it's imputed back again. It will rally more if the dollar weakens against those underlying currencies. So global investing has been the best place to be to start the year. The dollar may have peaked, rates may.
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Melissa Lee
Have been ex us.
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Guy Adami
Ex us. And again, I won't speak on the merits, I'll just speak on the performance to this point. And you know when you also have the Magic seven running out of gas and it's now the mag one and a half. That's another reason why you had seen crowding out for other investments when the mag was doing so well. I think this has everything to do also with the rest of the performance.
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Melissa Lee
So are we hearing those animal spirits that all those CEOs are so excited about? All those bank CEOs were talking about at Davos, right, how everybody's so excited and there's been a real change in mentality since the election, etc. Are those spirits dying slowly? We're hearing the whimperings of the spiritual sort of fluttering.
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Patrick Moorhead
Well, if a lot of them existed in tech and we can talk about the deregulation financials and the potential for M and A, I mean that's a separate thing. I think Guy would mention that JP Morgan at this valuation, it's not something that you want to go chase. Some of these banks that have seen a lot of appreciation and seen valuation, you know, bumps that they haven't seen in a very long time. But the tech thing and you talk about the Mag 7, the Mag 1 1/2, you know, if you start to sleep like all these companies, they put out their cap Capex numbers. Microsoft, Google, Amazon, they all got hit on the other side of those because there were big numbers. But yet revenue growth has kind of slowed. Right. It doesn't mean that they say they're going to do 65, 100 or 80 billion, that that's actually what's going to happen. And I think if you see a pullback on Capex because you don't see uptake of this, you know, compute and the like and you throw in deep seek in there, it's going to put pressure on, on, you know, like the cost of this.
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Guy Adami
Trickle down.
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Patrick Moorhead
Yeah, it does trickle down and I just think that that Capex comes out of the economy, that might be the sort of thing that slows things up a little bit. So again, you're seeing it in some of the names that are playing a bit of catch up. And I think one example would be an app lovin or some of these other names that have just gone ballistic. Carvana. And that's where that sort of stuff. Roku tonight after the close, that's where that's happening. But to me that's not a broadening out and that's not a bullish sign for the market.
- [11:43]
Melissa Lee
All right, meantime, intel shares, they jumped 7% today, bringing its gains for the week to 26%. The stock now pacing for its best week since January of 1975. I think starting his first job then.
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Karen Feiderman
Okay, yeah, hold on. You're right. I was working like a Carvel. I was making Carvel cakes like fudging the whale Jinx.
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Melissa Lee
All right. Helping to boost the stock, intel that is reports that the Trump administration is pushing the chipmaker and Taiwan semi to form a joint venture for chip production. Earlier this week, Vice President JD Vance also promised to safeguard American AI technology. Let's bring in Patrick Moorhead. He is the CEO at Moor Insights and Strategy. Patrick, great to have you with us. JD Vance may want to protect American AI, but intel doesn't really have American AI. At the same time, there's, there's a real emphasis on bringing production here and preserving the chip industry on our shores. So how do you see that benefiting Intel? Because we thought for years now that that was going to be the trend that would help this stock.
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Len Yaffe
Yeah. So politicians as we know the fast and loose with what they say and my interpretation of what JD Vance says, it's very consistent with what the administration wants to do. It wants more manufacturing in the United States and it wants to sell more US Based chips. And if you put those two together, they would favor Intel. Not only is Intel a US Based company, but it has most of its manufacturing here in the United States. And with its upcoming 18A process should be very competitive on those large chips, even with tsmc. And you can imagine the pressure that the Trump administration would be putting on right now on the Nvidia is the Broadcoms the marvels to motivate them to take a second look at this. We can also see some tax breaks on manufacturing that is done in the US before. So I think all of those are on the table and I believe all of those benefit Intel.
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Dan Nathan
Patrick, it's Karen. Thanks for being on. So intel, as we all know, is somewhat rudderless and TSMC is obviously considered, you know, the premier name. Do you think there's something to this? Does this seem, could this be likely?
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Len Yaffe
So I don't see, let's say a TSMC acquisition for national security reasons and keeping intel an American company, but I could see some joint ventures as a form of financing and potentially an intellectual property sharing of some sort that could help Intel. But let me be very clear. Intel, from my point of view, what I know doesn't need help on 18A with big chips. It could use some help on smaller chips that could go to, let's say Apple or a Qualcomm. Intel needs capitalization too. And as you've seen from some of these structures that intel has put up with some of the 49% investments from companies that would be a needed source.
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Karen Feiderman
Of cash, this becomes a homeland security thing. So the flip side of that coin is who's potentially negatively impacted by all this on the chip side of things.
- [15:08]
Len Yaffe
I think it's clearly TSMC right there between a rock and a hard place. They're in a good situation in that they are the leading provider of the most difficult chips to produce. Those are done primarily in Taiwan. They have, they're starting to do some of that here in the United States, but they are potentially the biggest loser here for sure.
- [15:37]
Melissa Lee
So is this, does this mark a turnaround, Patrick, this stellar week that intel has had? Are we going to say we've seen the worst for this stock or, I mean what do you make of this run?
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Len Yaffe
So listen, the company was trading below book value and any whisper of anything that could be construed negative was taken negative and a stock has been driven to the ground. I do believe that the company has reached its low point or did reach its low point. One of the reasons its designs didn't go over as well as they could have was because it was on a less than competitive manufacturing process. In fact they, they fab some of their chips at TSMC. I think that's changing with 18A. The biggest issue for intel right now from a market acceptance is that they missed the data center AI GPU market. Somehow AMD with a lot less resources was able to get into this market. And intel as you know, pushed back their roadmap a year because what was supposed to come out this year wasn't going to be competitive.
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Melissa Lee
Right. Patrick, great to get your take. Thank you for joining us. Patrick Moorhead so we don't have a management team, a permanent management team at Intel. They missed steps. So do you have, I mean you have been an investor in intel, do you have faith in it at this point?
- [17:08]
Guy Adami
No. I mean I think we need to call it what it is and Dan has it in his acronym I think for a good reason which is is that it won't take a lot to turn this thing around. But let's remember we just had numbers from the I don't know however long and as Patrick just pointed out, they pushed out the Clearwater dynamic. Their goudy chip is not really ready essentially the the other one is being at least worked out internally. The dynamic here is this is a company 25 is now a transition year at best. This is a company that if anything what we've heard from them over time is that they are not competing. And we've been very worried about cash burn. We've been very worried about this company has been cutting costs that's had to cut private equity deals with some big private equity firms. Their Ireland project which I think is 49% owned by Apollo for a big number. This is a story of a stock that if the headlines this week about tsmc no way is that a takeover. I mean let's be really, really clear and there's a lot more risk even in getting closer manufacturing bed with them even in this country when we think about all the risks around tsmc. So you know I want to believe I own the stock. I own it from higher. I've also bought some lower. I mean I believe there's an opportunity to make Money in this stock. The news flow is not going to be good unless there's a major strategic change. This is without a CEO. Rudderless is the right word. I think this is a big week. You could fade this.
- [18:25]
Patrick Moorhead
Yeah. And you know, the TSMC thing, I mean, intel is in the process of building out fabs. That was a big product. You know, that was one of Gelsinger, the former CEOs, you know, main kind of strategies. If you think about it, you know, I go back to like M and A and the potential for like some sort of deal. Remember Qualcomm had approached them in September. But that would make absolutely no sense when you think about the end markets that Qualcomm serves. You know, 40% of their revenues go to Samsung and Apple. We just had Patrick just speak to the fact that, you know, we know those end markets are really weak. I don't know what happens for intel if you put those two companies together. I'm sure there's a lot of crossover as far as employees and the like here, but Qualcomm is a fabulous company. But it's just the wrong end markets for this company to get turned around. That would be Intel. That wouldn't make a whole heck of a lot of sense.
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Melissa Lee
Coming up, a number of names on the move after hours Gamestop surging as a company. Consider some crypto investing and win volatile on its results. The details on both next. And they're not the only stocks we've got our eyes on the headlines driving monster moves in a handful of names and the latest on 1. Cyberstock's return to market. Do not go anywhere. Fast money's back in 2.
- [19:27]
Guy Adami
Check out the all new CNBC sport podcast where sports business and investing collide from media deals to team valuations, private.
- [19:34]
Melissa Lee
Equity moves and more.
- [19:36]
Guy Adami
Catch the biggest business stories on the CNBC sport podcast. Listen on your favorite platform.
- [19:42]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. We've got a News alert on GameStop. The meme stock popping after hours on news that is considering investing in Bitcoin and other crypto currencies. Kate Rooney joins us now for the story. Hey, Kate. Hey, Melissa. So GameStop is evaluating this plan to invest in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. CNBC.com reporting this one. According to three sources familiar with GameStop's plan, those sources say the retailer could still decide not to follow through with those potential investments. And it's still in the process of figuring out and evaluating if this makes sense for GameStop's business. It comes after Ryan Cohen the CEO of the video game retailer posted a photo earlier this week with Michael Saylor, the chairman of MicroStrategy, which is the largest corporate holder of bitcoin, one of the first to do this crypto investing strategy. Although two people did tell CNBC that Saylor was not involved in this decision. GameStop has tried to expand in the past into digital assets with crypto wallets at one point, but it shut that down in 2023, citing regulatory uncertainty. GameStop has had a volatile few years since it was front and center of the Wall street bets and meme trading mania. The stock was up as much as 20%. It's up closer to 9% now. Back over to you. All right, Kate. Thank you. Kate Rooney. It seems that for anybody who saw that picture on Twitter, you would have known that this was going to be the next step and that the stock would pop at least this much on that news.
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Karen Feiderman
And then we just, I think we had a conversation about it. And I think one of the reasons you get in this fate is people that are taking advantage of this. But I don't. Well, I don't see any compelling reason to buy GameStop. Certainly not because they're going to foray into Bitcoin. If you want to be along Bitcoin belong.
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Melissa Lee
Bitcoin, it also, it cannot be a microstrategy. It doesn't have the balance sheet. It doesn't have.
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Dan Nathan
It does have a lot of cash.
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Melissa Lee
It has cash, yes, but $4.6 billion of cash.
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Dan Nathan
But you know, the hope that, all right, we're going to use our cash, even though our business is losing money, we're going to use our cash, buy Bitcoin, and we really hope and think it'll trade at a premium to the bitcoin that we own. That has to be the strategy.
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Guy Adami
They could go out and buy apples.
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Melissa Lee
Right? Right.
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Guy Adami
If you're just telling me I'm going to go out and buy an asset and I think it's going to go higher. You go out and buy Bitcoin, right?
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Dan Nathan
No, but, but you see them together, obviously. Find like a strategy, hope of. Okay, it trades at two times bitcoin. I mean, I wouldn't short it.
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Guy Adami
But why should it. But why should it? It's insane.
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Patrick Moorhead
But what's funny, and I agree with you and I'm long, but, but it's Sailor. He's there. I mean, he's like bitcoin Jesus. I mean, like, you know what I mean? You'd have to pry it out of his cold, dead hands. I Mean like these guys at GameStop. They will not go back to Elon. You remember. Well, they just sold, they just sold their bitcoin in an effort to kind of make their numbers look better. So I just think you're going to have. What do they call it? We can't know what was the hands.
- [22:23]
Melissa Lee
The diamond hands.
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Patrick Moorhead
Diamond hands.
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Melissa Lee
These guys won't have diamonds hands opposite diamond hands. Coal, we've got another earnings alert on when shares initially surging after being on the top of the bottom lines but now well off after hours highs. CNBC's Contessa Brewer joins us now to break down the numbers from the quarter contest.
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Tim Seymour
Yeah, the call just wrapped up to Melissa Las Vegas seeing healthy business against some really tough comps in the previous year. Remember F1 launch who everybody charged a ton on the call. CEO Craig Billings said they saw about a $20 million drop in EBITDA. If you compare the two years of F1, mostly because of room rates, they went down but he pointed out they were still 50% higher than Wynn's two closest competitors. Also by the way, Vegas players really love slots. The amount they wagered on those machines went up 13% and we heard that from MGM yesterday saying that it set slot records. So hey, that's good for Vegas moving forward. And Billings said the first quarter shaping up well excluding the super bowl which Vegas hosted last year, you can't really beat that in Macau. Billings said January saw full occupancy in the hotels. Healthy gambling, strong volume for Chinese New Year. Although he said hold was choppy. That's how much of the wagers casinos actually keep because of luck. CFO Julie Cameron Doe pointed out that Wynn is in a strong cash position and it means dividends, buybacks, reducing leverage. All of that good. A lot of focus on the call Melissa about when Almajan in the UAE.
- [23:48]
Melissa Lee
To draftkings up after hours about seven and a half percent contested. They're out with results as well.
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Tim Seymour
Yeah and their results missed top and bottom lines. They missed on monthly active users. However, they raised the guide the low point of their guidance from 6.2 billion this year to 6.3 billion. So the range is 6.3 to 6.6 billion. And that does not include what everyone assumes is going to be fantastic results from super bowl because of the Eagles winning and it being such a blowout and the player parlay the props not really paying off the way that they could have and certainly not in the way that we saw in the football season where customer friendly results really cost the sports books Big time. So that's probably why you're seeing the stock up as much as it is 6.5%.
- [24:32]
Melissa Lee
All right, contessa, thank you. Contessa Brewer. What do you want to trade, Tim?
- [24:36]
Guy Adami
I'll trade when and by the way, if you want to own Formula One and exposure to that, own Formula One that stock actually am long so you don't have to own Vegas companies that are actually done well when Formula One's gone through their streets Win is to me still a Macao story. And therefore I think we're certainly like Las Vegas sands. I think that's the number that we really want to see headline change on. And I still think you're going to get it. I think people that are spending time in Macao, all the channel checks I have my sense is Macao is heating up and it's heating up well and it doesn't have to be China macro that does it. So that's the story.
- [25:09]
Karen Feiderman
I'm surprised when is not significantly higher. I mean we're getting down to levels we saw in August of last year. Valuation is compelling. This was a good quarter. So I think if I win on to the extent that there is any weakness and on an aside, Tim would be an amazing Formula one driver.
- [25:25]
Guy Adami
Like he's got so you think but.
- [25:27]
Melissa Lee
The helmet would ruin his hair.
- [25:28]
Guy Adami
No, but then he's wearing a helmet.
- [25:30]
Tim Seymour
All I'm wearing a helmet as it is right now.
- [25:31]
Guy Adami
So I mean I just think. Thank you Guy. I appreciate that.
- [25:34]
Melissa Lee
Very nice.
- [25:35]
Guy Adami
Would you back my team? Would you be like a sponsor?
- [25:37]
Karen Feiderman
Why wouldn't I'd be in the pit. I'd wear like the thing on my.
- [25:39]
Melissa Lee
Head like really bother wheels and have.
- [25:41]
Karen Feiderman
A lollipop and talk to you and.
- [25:43]
Guy Adami
Turn and burn Guy.
- [25:44]
Melissa Lee
All right. Coming up, more of today's after hours movers. Roku Airbnb releasing results in just the last hour. The details from those quarters next. Plus the morning headlines that had shares of Molson, Coors, MGM and Crocs heading higher today. Today you're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ markets at Times Square. Back right after this, check out the.
- [26:02]
Patrick Moorhead
All new CNBC sport podcast where sports.
- [26:05]
Guy Adami
Business and investing collide from media deals to team valuations, private equity moves and more. Catch the biggest business stories on the CNBC Sport podcast. Listen on your favorite platform.
- [26:17]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks jumping today after President Trump laid out his plan for reciprocal tariffs on foreign countries but stop short of imposing them. The Dow climbing 342 points. The S&P up 1% getting within 2 points of a record close. The Nasdaq rallying 1 1/2 percent. Some big stock moves from a few key names. Molson Core is up nearly 10% after reporting earnings and revenues that beat expectations. And shares of CROC surging nearly 24% after its own earnings and revenue beat shares of Metta, further extending their record winning streak. The stock closing at another altar time high now up 19 days in a row. And Papa John surging more than 18% today. A Qatari backed investment fund reportedly eyeing a takeover of the pizza chain. Papa John's has been cut by more than half over the last three years. And shares of Netflix hitting another all time high. That stock up nearly 90% over the past year. And the first major tech IPO of the year. Cybersecurity firm Sailpoint returning to public markets today. Listing on the Nasdaq, the stock price at 23 bucks a share but closed 4% lower. And some more after hours action here. Roku surging on its own top and bottom line. Beats and Applied materials lower as Q2 revenue guidance comes in light. That was a lot of stocks. That was a whole lot. A whole Tim Tap, I think you want to talk.
- [27:33]
Guy Adami
Let's talk about Molson Coors because it comes a day after Heineken had great numbers. This is a case of beating a really, really low bar. And in fact they got back to their 24 guide. And if anything you're getting some sense that low to mid single digits in 25 is something that they can, they can do. We know what's going on in beer. We know what's going on. Spirits, there's pricing, power issues. There's certainly some competition in terms of where people are spending their recreational dollars. I think you buy these names. I mean these are, these are commodities. This is cpg, its finest. There are multiples that they should trade at. And I think this is where valuations get pretty compelling Crocs.
- [28:07]
Dan Nathan
That was an interesting move. This is one from way, way back when. But I mean, they've done an extraordinary job. These were really good numbers. The stock was up huge and still it's not expensive.
- [28:18]
Melissa Lee
Really?
- [28:18]
Dan Nathan
Really.
- [28:19]
Guy Adami
You ever worn Crocs, Karen?
- [28:20]
Melissa Lee
I feel like I have not.
- [28:22]
Guy Adami
Yeah, it doesn't surprise me.
- [28:23]
Dan Nathan
But your little guys have crocs.
- [28:24]
Guy Adami
They do.
- [28:25]
Melissa Lee
They have sparkling wands in them. Yeah, yeah.
- [28:28]
Patrick Moorhead
Is this pops and drops? Is that what we're doing over here?
- [28:31]
Melissa Lee
No. Did you have a. Do you want to talk about a stock though?
- [28:34]
Patrick Moorhead
It's not pops and drops?
- [28:35]
Melissa Lee
No. Do you hear music.
- [28:36]
Patrick Moorhead
We had a pop.
- [28:37]
Guy Adami
Do you want to drop something?
- [28:38]
Patrick Moorhead
I'm going to drop, yeah. Amen. Talking about the applied materials, I mean, this is one that I just find really interesting. It kind of goes back to some of the things we've been talking about is like you got this capex, you have reshoring, you have the build out of fabs. And this is a company that makes the machines that make the chips. And you'd think that they'd be having better guidance right here and better results. And so, you know, it goes back to think about their biggest customer, Samsung, some of their end markets not doing particularly well, but Taiwan semi is also their biggest customer too. So at 11% of sales, so this is kind of surprising to me. A bit of a value trade. It really doesn't trade particularly well, but there is a price for it.
- [29:11]
Melissa Lee
All right. By the way, we are so excited about our first Fast Money Live event which takes place February 27th here at the NASDAQ.
- [29:18]
Guy Adami
Yeah.
- [29:19]
Melissa Lee
If you have been waiting to purchase a ticket, now is the time to act. We just released a limited number of tickets, first come, first serve. So if you want to be part of Fast Money Live at the NASDAQ and meet us, all of us here on this desk, plus A couple more February 27, scan the QR code on the screen or go to cnbc events.com fastmoney to purchase your ticket. We are very excited to meet you, particularly guy.
- [29:42]
Karen Feiderman
Now think about this, because there are a lot of procrastinators out there. Tim is at times a procrastinator, like Christmas Day.
- [29:51]
Guy Adami
No.
- [29:51]
Karen Feiderman
But if you looking for Valentine's gift, you're like, this is.
- [29:56]
Melissa Lee
Now you're talking.
- [29:57]
Karen Feiderman
And I'm telling you this is going to go like this because people coming off the wait list, so don't wait.
- [30:02]
Guy Adami
I tell you what, guys, an extra bonus for folks. Would you show up in in your Crocs that night? Because I know you love Crocs.
- [30:07]
Karen Feiderman
Don't wear Crocs, Tim, if I don't wear them.
- [30:09]
Patrick Moorhead
Valentine gift. I think you got to reassess your relationship.
- [30:12]
Karen Feiderman
There are a lot of Crocs.
- [30:13]
Patrick Moorhead
I'm just gonna go out on a limb here.
- [30:14]
Karen Feiderman
You know, by the way, we did a PSA years ago about Crocs. If your Crocs are dirty, first of all, you shouldn't be wearing them in the dishwasher.
- [30:21]
Dan Nathan
Oh, I know where you're going with this.
- [30:22]
Karen Feiderman
Put them in the dishwasher.
- [30:23]
Melissa Lee
Nice. I've never done that.
- [30:25]
Patrick Moorhead
Did you do that?
- [30:26]
Guy Adami
At Carvel.
- [30:26]
Melissa Lee
I'm going to try that.
- [30:27]
Karen Feiderman
No, we didn't have crocs at Carvel, wise guy.
- [30:29]
Melissa Lee
Little tiny crocs in the dishwasher. Okay, there you are. So sign up, get your ticket. Coming up, the Senate voting to confirm Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. As Health Secretary by a narrow margin today. We'll take the temperature of the health care sector and dive into the policy impact straight ahead. More fast money right after this. Welcome back to Fast Money. Senators confirming one of President Trump's most controversial cabinet picks today. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. Passing a key vote to lead the Department of Health and Human Services by a margin of 52 to 48. Kentucky Republican Mitch McConnell, the lone senator to vote against party lines, raising concerns over RFK's history of questioning public health institutions and spreading scientific misinformation. So how concerned should investors be as Kennedy takes the helm of a $1.7 trillion federal health agency? Angelica Peebles has more on this. Angelica. Hey, Melissa. Yeah. Now that he's confirmed, the question is, what will Kennedy do as HHS secretary? His goal of making America healthy again is pretty broad. So will he focus on food, pharma and what about vaccines? So after Kennedy was sworn in today, he said that his plans are, quote, radical transparency and returning gold standard science to the nih, the FDA and the cdc. He said he wants to remove people from panels that have conflicts of interest. And President Trump signed an executive order creating the Make America Healthy Again Commission. It calls for understanding and reversing chronic disease in the U.S. one interesting nugget in that EO is that it calls for assessing the prevalence and threat posed by the prescription of drugs like SSRIs, stimulants, and weight loss drugs. In his confirmation hearing, Kennedy called GLP1s miracle drugs. But he said that he doesn't think they're for everyone. And we haven't heard from this administration yet on where it stands on compounding. Mizuho's Jared Holtz today says that he sees the RFK led HHS taking a fairly lenient stance with compounders. So something to watch there, Mel. All right, Angelica, thank you. Angelica Peebles. And in fact, we saw him's shares up by 27% today. For more, let's bring in Len Yaffe, Managing Director at CAS of Capital Management. Len, great to have you with us. Change. How does this change the landscape? I mean, there's a lot we do not know, but we know things are going to be very different.
- [32:41]
Angelica Peebles
Yeah. What RFK talked about early on, I think, is getting rid of some of the indirect costs spending by NIH, I think he was looking at 4 billion of the 9 billion of indirect costs of their $35 billion budget. He did talk about looking into the increased incidence, as did President Trump, of autism. And also, and this is to me, very interesting, looking at the increase in incidence in chronic conditions. And it's a topic I've spent a lot of time learning about. If you look at chronic conditions, 60% of Americans today have at least one. 40% have two. They're responsible for a disproportionate expenditure of health care dollars. Seven of the 15 top chronic conditions are directly related to obesity. And if you look at the rise in obesity over the last 60 years, it's gone from 10% of the population to up to about 44%. Interestingly, 2023 was the first year where there was a flattening or a slight decline in the US adult obesity rate. And it probably coincides with the approval of semaglutide in June of 2021. So although diet and exercise, which is harder, especially for older people, can help lose weight over time, I personally very strongly believe that the GLP1s are the most transformative drug class that I've seen in my career and that they will help prevent many of the chronic diseases, reduce morbidity, mortality and cost over the next five years.
- [34:23]
Melissa Lee
So if you, if you piece things together, given he wants to stamp out or stem chronic diseases, obesity is the Source. We've got GLP1s, we've got compounded GLP1s which is making this drug class more accessible to Americans, writ large. And then you have the head of the FDA, Dr. Makary, who was on the board of a telehealth company. What's sort of the conclusion here? Is there a conclusion to be made?
- [34:52]
Angelica Peebles
Well, whether they're the right ones or not, that I have, my conclusion is I Look at the FDA rules, they're called 503 A&B that relate to compounding. And they very clearly state that when a drug is no longer in short supply, compounding is not allowed. The compounded drugs are not as FDA regulated as are the branded drugs, and they're not FDA approved. Tirzepatide, Lilly's drug, is off the shortage list. Semaglutide is still on the list. And there's an FDA decision due out, I think, March 19th as it relates to Zepatide. So my own personal expectation, if history is any guide, would be that compounding should not be allowed as the drugs are no longer in shortage and that the branded companies, Lilly and Novo in this case, should be allowed to sell the drug without compounded competition. And again, as I've stated, I think we're, you know, in the first inning as we approach spring training of the use of GLP1s. And it's going to do far better than Wall street thinks. My own expectations are 50% higher than Wall Street's expectations in 2030. So I think it's a phenomenal class. I am not in favor of the compounding solution, and I think these two companies will be the leaders.
- [36:11]
Dan Nathan
It's Karen, thanks for being on. So if you're as excited about GOP ones as I probably heard, anyone, do you think that there's a scenario where the government covers the cost, it's very, very widely used and actually can help the cost come down of our overall health care expenditures?
- [36:27]
Angelica Peebles
Yeah, and it hasn't surprised me in the last year that Lilly had to lower their expectations for GLP1s. What drives the use of GLP1s isn't obesity per se. It's the reduction in chronic conditions that again, are associated with tremendous morbidity, mortality and cost. As the data over the next two years, we had data in cardiovascular outcomes, sleep apnea. We'll get data from Novo later this year in an Alzheimer's trial. There'll be data in knee, osteoarthritis, kidney disease, liver disease. As this data comes out and the insurers realize there's tremendous cost savings to be had, not just cost because of obesity, they will be forced to cut to cover the drugs for reimbursement. Government likely will and we'll see a much healthier America. And in the 2000-30s, health care costs will lower in growth.
- [37:27]
Melissa Lee
All right, Len, we got to leave it there. Thanks so much for joining us. Appreciate it. Len Yaffe, what was interesting is that, you know, Nestle's CEO was asked about the RFK confirmation actually had to defend packaged goods. I mean, the ripple effects are can be everywhere, not just in the pharma sector, but just, you know, in food. He wants to attack ultra processed foods.
- [37:48]
Guy Adami
Yeah, look, making America healthy in terms of processed foods, it sounds like a good thing to me. And I think let's wait and see how some of this policy goes through. When I hear we're going to rely heavily and we'll try to reinstill like gold standard in science. That's great. I believe in science. So I would get back to the companies that have been most oversold here on the Back of this, there are a lot of opportunities in the health care sector and even if you look at the xlv, it started to hold support. I would just go straight to Novo, though. I mean, novo is down 40% off of those highs. They provide two thirds of the volume of gop. I realize there's been some concern around oil and some places where they're not competing. This is the place that you have the opportunity.
- [38:23]
Dan Nathan
Just on the flip side of that, himssee does have 34% short interest.
- [38:27]
Melissa Lee
Yeah.
- [38:27]
Dan Nathan
So that for sure creates a very big cinching.
- [38:31]
Karen Feiderman
Real quick. Pepsi, which was Everybody's darling into 2023 ish GOP ones come out, the stock goes down probably 35%. But you look at that and say, is there value here on these sell offs? It might come in the form of.
- [38:43]
Melissa Lee
P. Coming up, time to check out the disappointing results that send shares of Hyatt Hotels dropping and why airlines were weighing on the travel trade as well. That's when he's back in two. Welcome back to Fast Money. We got an earnings alert on Airbnb. Shares of the vacation rental site surging after the company beat earnings and revenue estimates for the latest quarter thanks to strong international demand. But it said growth would slow this quarter. On the other hand, Hyatt posting Q4 results before the bell that had investors checking out of the hotel stock EPS for the December quarter coming in at 42 cents. Analysts were expecting 78 cents a share. Revenue about 50 million lower than expected. Expected and lackluster guidance putting extra pressure on this name. The disappointing results causing ripple effects across the airline. The travel trade. Marriott Hilton down in sympathy. Airlines solidly in the red today. Keep in mind, Marriott was already down on lower guidance before. What do you make of this trade, Tim?
- [39:37]
Guy Adami
I tell you what, I, I look at what Expedia announced last week and I don't know that there's problems with the macro on this trade. I think ultimately you get into a place where first of all, cost, costs related to hotel rooms, cost related to their business. I think there's a margin dynamic. I think this is an opportunity. There was a lot of these that were priced to perfection. Airlines have had a tremendous run. I think we're talking also about something slightly different there. Although Dan has brought this up, those charts don't look great and they have been trading stocks. But I think there's a fundamental story. The macro around travel, the macro around the service industry related to travel I think remains very strong. And that's what we've heard.
- [40:09]
Patrick Moorhead
Yeah, the Airbnb is kind of interesting. You have the merit, you have the Hyatt and then you look at what they have to say. Airbnb, like the quarter was good, but the guidance was kind of squishy. And then you go back to Expedia and they own the VRBO and they had a lot of good things to say. So maybe there is some sort of bifurcation.
- [40:24]
Dan Nathan
I think the guidance was better than squishy. I think there were more optimistic about 2025. We hear this thing over and over again, which I don't love. The quarter being a little, you know, leap year.
- [40:37]
Melissa Lee
Oh, yeah, yeah.
- [40:38]
Dan Nathan
So I don't really love that.
- [40:39]
Guy Adami
But we lost it.
- [40:40]
Dan Nathan
No, I think Airbnb, that was, that was a good quarter.
- [40:42]
Karen Feiderman
164, if you go for correct staff can put a chart back from March of last year. This level, I think it's trading there now. This is where we totally broke down from in the spring. So theoretically, Melissa Lee, this should be huge resistance here.
- [40:54]
Melissa Lee
All right, coming up, the ultimate Would you rather attack behemoth debt or both of our own of our own US Government debt? So it's either they have to tech debt or own government debt? That is the question. We will answer that question right after this break. Welcome back to Fast Money. It is time for an ultimate would you rather Microsoft's debt or the United States government? Double Line Capital putting forth the idea, wondering if the tech giant and its fortress of a balance sheet is actually a safer bet than US Treasuries. The firm pointing out Microsoft's market cap is bigger than most countries entire stock markets and has flawless credit scores from Moody's and S and P Global. Meanwhile, Double Line points out the US Credit rating is declining and its high debt burden rising interest costs continue to weigh on the government. So we ask would you rather.
- [41:49]
Dan Nathan
Would I rather? I would rather the US Government because they have the ability to tax, Microsoft does not. And the Microsoft bonds will trade with interest rates just as US Treasury. So to me it's easy.
- [42:02]
Guy Adami
There's not a question to me it's US Government debt. Now the question is if you're looking for relative value, I mean, you know, tell me where the Microsoft trading and what durations and etcetera, etcetera. But as a, as a credit story US Government and again, we can print as much as we want. We've proven that. So we're not going to default.
- [42:19]
Patrick Moorhead
We're the same. So let's move on to something else.
- [42:21]
Karen Feiderman
No, no, I'm Mr. Softie.
- [42:24]
Melissa Lee
Oh really? You're going Microsoft.
- [42:26]
Karen Feiderman
Government can print in perpetuity until people start saying, wait a second. And so, you know, that's when things.
- [42:32]
Melissa Lee
Get a little dicey.
- [42:33]
Karen Feiderman
A lot of people a lot smarter than I am, which is not a high bar that think yields are going significantly high.
- [42:40]
Guy Adami
Toss me your.
- [42:40]
Patrick Moorhead
That's what I'm going to say. I do. I do have a comment. Then. Microsoft. You don't want to be there either.
- [42:45]
Guy Adami
All right, that was controversial.
- [42:50]
Melissa Lee
Next. Final trade. Final trade time. Tim.
- [42:55]
Guy Adami
Happy early Valentine's Day, Mom. Yes.
- [42:59]
Dan Nathan
Yes.
- [42:59]
Guy Adami
And let's go to Formula One. That ticker is f wonk. Formula One.
- [43:04]
Melissa Lee
Karen.
- [43:04]
Dan Nathan
I'm the best wife. I got my husband a card to give to me with sticker. Sign here. Sign me my trade. Even with this new HHS xlv.
- [43:13]
Patrick Moorhead
I like that. Happy Valentine's Day to the luckiest woman in the world. My wife. Let's just say not Microsoft bonds. How's that?
- [43:21]
Guy Adami
You guys just watered down my Valentine's thinking.
- [43:24]
Melissa Lee
That was to the mom. So what do you got, guy?
- [43:27]
Karen Feiderman
The luckiest woman in the world.
- [43:31]
Melissa Lee
Do you have a trade?
- [43:32]
Karen Feiderman
Pepsi.
- [43:33]
Melissa Lee
Melissa, Very nice. Thank you for watching Fast Money. See you back here tomorrow. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer Check out the.
- [44:17]
Patrick Moorhead
All new CNBC Sport podcast where sports.
- [44:20]
Guy Adami
Business and investing collide from media deals to team valuations, private equity moves, and more. Catch the biggest business stories on the CNBC Sport Podcast. Listen on your favorite platform.