CNBC's "Fast Money"

Episode: Retail Earnings On Deck… And Alphabet About To Breakout?
Date: August 18, 2025
Host: Courtney Reagan (in for Melissa Lee)
Panel: Tim Seymour, Courtney Garcia, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami

Quick Episode Overview

This episode dives into the impending wave of major retail earnings reports, the latest geopolitical developments between the US, Europe, and Russia over Ukraine, and fresh analysis on energy stocks, Intel, Novo Nordisk, and big tech technicals—especially Google and Meta. The traders break down the actionable investment opportunities in each area, discuss major risks (tariffs, interest rates), and examine shifting talent trends in the banking industry.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Retail Earnings Season: Opportunities & Risks

(Starting ~01:03)

• Major Retailers Reporting: Focus on Home Depot, Lowe’s, Target, and Walmart—what their upcoming earnings say about the state of the US consumer.
• Key Issues: Impact of tariffs, inventory management (including “pull-forward” ahead of tariffs), and the divergence between Walmart and Target.

Guy Adami [02:55]:

“Walmart’s doing everything right, Target’s doing everything wrong. If you want to be long the stock, you’re hoping there’s some sort of shakeup [in management].”

Dan Nathan [03:30]:

“None of the big box retailers… have confirmed the new highs in the S&P 500… If you have beats and raises across the board, I just don't see that happening.”

• Home Depot & Housing Market: With high interest rates and few homeowners moving due to low locked-in mortgages, Home Depot expects more renovations.
  Courtney Reagan [05:07]:

“Even if rates come down a little bit, there's just no moving on those existing homes… Home Depot is saying this is actually good for us.”

• Tariff Effects: Panel weighs whether Wall Street fully understands the lagging impact of tariffs on P&L statements, especially due to retail inventory accounting methods that may “inflate” short-term profits.
  Dan Nathan [08:06]:

“Most investors have become really sophisticated… Management kind of suggests this is maybe not apples to oranges.”

• Guidance is Critical:
  Courtney Reagan [09:17]:

“When you looked at last quarter, these tariffs were so new and so uncertain… but at this point, there's hopefully been enough time and certainty to give guidance moving forward.”

Takeaway: Panel is cautious, sees select opportunities, but wants proof of consumer resilience and clarity on tariffs before jumping in.

2. Ukraine Peace Talks & Market Impact

(First discussed 09:54; Update at 38:20)

• Major Meeting in DC: President Trump meets with Ukraine’s Zelensky and European allies. Unconfirmed reports that Trump paused the meeting for a call with Putin.

• Market Implications:
  Tim Seymour [12:55]:

“When Russia attacked Ukraine… I bought nuclear and gold and oil. The unwind of anything less than the current status… you’d see profit taking. But these are trades rooted in long-term global security themes.”

• Breaking News [38:20]: FT reports Ukraine ready to buy $100 billion in US weapons (financed by Europe) to secure US security guarantees; Trump showing European leaders around Oval Office.
  Eamon Javers: Suggests new alignment and possible US manufacturing tailwinds.

Takeaway: Geopolitical “brave face” on display, but any deal could pivot certain commodity and defense trades.

3. Energy & Infrastructure: Investment Opportunities

(Guest expert Eli Horton, 15:11 - 20:22)

• Major Themes:

  • Transition to renewables and re-industrialization of the US.
  • Massive surge in electricity demand by 2050 (double today’s level)—driven by AI, electrification of transport, and industrial demand.

  Eli Horton [15:57]:

“We need to add something like 75 gigawatts… By 2030 just for AI—that’s like 15 New York Cities’ worth.”

• Stock Picks:

  • Vistra Corp (VST): Owns nuclear and natural gas assets, well-positioned for grid investment.
    Horton [17:15]:

    “We own Vistra… They have a very attractive nat gas fleet… Most investors are unexposed to these types of businesses.”

  • GE Vernova: Old economy stocks like GE Power, now in favor as grid upgrades become urgent ([19:35]).

• Capex Theme: Corporate Capex for data centers is matching consumer demand; if both slow, could impact broader economy.

  Dan Nathan [18:09]:

“In the first half of this year, capital expenditures related to a data center buildout actually had the same contribution [to GDP] as consumer spending.”

4. Palo Alto Networks Earnings & Cybersecurity M&A

Earnings alert segment: [22:17 - 25:07]

• Palo Alto Networks (PANW): Strong quarter beats; up to 6% after-hours pop after $25B CyberArk deal, but C-suite shakeup raises eyebrows.

  Tim Seymour [23:28]:

“These were solid numbers… but I’m not sure this is where… I’d rather be in Crowdstrike.”

Dan Nathan [24:12]:

“When you make an acquisition of this size… if they're going to start becoming rollups, I think they should be trading at a bit more of a discount.”

Takeaway: Relief rally, but skepticism about long-term growth via M&A.

5. Intel & US Government Involvement

[25:07 - 27:36]

• US Proposed Stake (10%) via CHIPS Act: Debate on whether government as shareholder helps or hurts.

  Courtney Reagan [25:41]:

“I don’t think it fixes a lot of the underlying business problems.”

Guy Adami [26:16]:

“I think a floor is in… Now appears to be coming to fruition… Floor is 21 [stock price], upside might be north of 32.”

Dan Nathan [26:42]:

“I don’t think the government investing in a company like this puts a floor in it… To me, I think it's kind of dead money.”

6. Novo Nordisk, GLP-1 Drugs & GoodRx

[28:33 - 30:40]

• Big Day for Novo: Wegovy approved for MASH liver disease, expanded discounts with GoodRx. GoodRx stock surges 37%.

  Tim Seymour [29:13]:

“This is news you want to invest around… Today the good news for Novo was bad news for Lilly.”

Guy Adami [30:13]:

“If you want to play a little stock market against the 49 level, this might be the best entry point you’ve had.”

7. Banking Talent Wars: Citi vs JPMorgan

[31:13 - 33:49]

• Citi Poaching JPMorgan Bankers: Citi outperforms JPM by 12% YTD amid industry shakeout.

  Dan Nathan [32:17]:

“It says a lot about this IPO backlog… the idea of kind of staffing up… that makes some sense.”

Tim Seymour [33:02]:

“It’s nice to see Citi being able to compete… the reason I want to own Citi is because it’s still significantly cheaper than JP Morgan.”

8. Auto Tariffs & Price Trends

[34:18 - 37:03]

• Tariff Impact Starting to Bite: Transaction prices up 1.5% y/y; Cadillac, Land Rover, Infiniti seeing double-digit price increases, while Jeep and Tesla see declines due to competition and “decontenting”.

  Courtney Reagan [37:19]:

“Autos… I’m not expecting crazy growth here… But if interest rates come down… that should be a boost for your autos.”

Guy Adami [37:58]:

“Toyota Motors… at 195ish… is on the verge of a bit of a breakout here.”

9. Technicals: Alphabet, Meta, Tesla

With Carter Worth, "Chartmaster": [39:23 - 44:02]

• Alphabet (GOOGL): Has rebounded 45% but unlike peers, has NOT made a new high yet.
  Carter Worth [41:31]:

“This is either the opportunity or the problem. I think it’s the former—it’s the opportunity… My thinking is Google exceeds its pre-tariff selloff, breaks out and makes a new high.”

• Meta: Broke out on Q2 earnings, now consolidating.
  Carter Worth [41:39]: “Any dipping from here… that’s weakness to take advantage of, not back away from.” Dan Nathan [43:22]: “Meta is the most interesting… For it to break out, a lot of things have to happen… Those have already happened with Meta.”

• Tesla: In triangle formation; investor sentiment is split (60% positive institutional, 43% positive retail).

Notable Quotes (with Timestamps)

• Guy Adami [02:55]:
  “Walmart’s doing everything right, Target’s doing everything wrong.”
• Courtney Reagan [05:07]:
  “Home Depot is saying this is actually good for us because you are going to see more people improving their homes.”
• Tim Seymour [12:55]:
  “You’d be buying weakness in gold, and I think you should be buying weakness in nuclear.”
• Eli Horton [15:57]:
  “We believe by 2050, electricity demand doubles… remanufacturing, electrification, and AI.”
• Dan Nathan [18:09]:
  “Capex related to a data center buildout actually had the same contribution as consumer spending.”
• Dan Nathan [26:42]:
  “I don’t think the government investing in a company like this puts a floor in it… It's kind of dead money.”
• Tim Seymour [29:13]:
  “The good news for Novo was bad news for Lilly.”
• Carter Worth [41:31]:
  “Google exceeds its pre-tariff sell off, breaks out and makes a new high.”

Important Timestamps for Segments

• Retail Earnings Discussion: 01:03 – 09:54
• Ukraine Peace Talks News: 09:54, 38:20
• Energy & Grid Investment (Eli Horton): 15:11 – 20:22
• Palo Alto Networks & Cybersecurity M&A: 22:17 – 25:07
• Intel & US Government Stake: 25:07 – 27:36
• Novo Nordisk/GLP-1 Drugs: 28:33 – 30:40
• Bank Talent Moves (Citi, JPM): 31:13 – 33:49
• Auto Tariffs Segment: 34:18 – 37:03
• Chartmaster: Alphabet, Meta, Tesla: 39:23 – 44:02

Tone & Style

The episode is brisk, analytical, and sometimes skeptical; panelists focus on actionable insights but highlight risks and trade-offs. The language is quick, often witty, and filled with Wall Street shorthand—excellent for engaged investors wanting a “cheat sheet” for market-moving stories.

Final Trades (44:16)

• Tim Seymour: “Great energy conversation. Constellation hits all those themes.”
• Courtney Reagan: “Energy… look at the XLE.”
• Dan Nathan: “Adobe making a double bottom here.”
• Guy Adami: Not quoted, episode wraps.

For listeners: This episode is best for investors tracking retail, energy, big tech, and macro trends. Actionable themes revolve around resilient retailers, overlooked energy utilities, government meddling in semis, and the next leg in tech's breakout.