← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
Retail Earnings On Deck… And Alphabet About To Breakout? 8/18/25
00:43:29
Earnings season rounding out with a big slate of retailers on deck to report results. How Home Depot, Target, and Walmart are holding up against tariffs, and how our traders are positioning ahead of the numbers. Plus Can Alphabet’s recent rally continue? What the Chartmaster sees in the technicals, and the next move for Tesla as the EV maker’s chart hits a crossroad. Fast Money Disclaimer
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- [00:00]
Courtney Reagan
A rich life isn't a straight line.
- [00:03]
Melissa Lee
To a destination on the horizon. Sometimes it takes an unexpected turn with detours, new possibilities, and even another passenger or three.
- [00:15]
Courtney Reagan
And with 100 years of navigating ups and downs, you can count on Edward Jones to help guide you through it all.
- [00:21]
Melissa Lee
Because life is a winding path made.
- [00:24]
Courtney Reagan
Rich by the people you walk it with. Let's find your rich together. Edward Jones, Member, SIPC.
- [00:32]
Tim Seymour
How will you shape the future of energy with confidence? What does it mean to deliver affordable and reliable energy for all? From evolving supply and demand to pricing uncertainty, EY understands the disruptions energy companies face and how to drive the outcomes that matter.
- [00:48]
Philippeau
So whether it's in the plants, at the pipeline or on the grid, EY's.
- [00:52]
Tim Seymour
Full spectrum of services help energy companies maximize operations to drive profitability and performance. Ey shape the future with confidence.
- [01:04]
Melissa Lee
Live from the NASDAQ marketsite in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight, retail on deck. Reports from Wal Mart, Target and Home Depot headlines the week what they'll have to say about the state of the consumer and what it could mean for the stocks and a big tech breakout. Well, the Chartmaster at least says one Mag 7 stock is primed for a pop. We'll tell you what it is and how to trade that name now. Plus, intel on the outs after its recent run, healthy gains for Novo Nordisk after its own struggles and Citi going on a hiring spree where it's poaching new talent and how it's impacting the banking space. I'm Courtney Reagan in for Melissa Lee, coming to you live from studio Be at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight we have Tim Seymour, Courtney Garcia, Dan Nathan and Guy Adani. But we start with the countdown to the huge slate of retail and consumer names rolling through this earnings season. Home Depot kicks things off before the bell tomorrow for followed by Lowe's and then Target and then Walmart. But that's not all. There are several others to go. Investors are going to be keyed in, of course, to what these companies have to say about the impact of. What else? Tariffs. It was a mixed bag for the names today. Target and excuse me, that's not where we're going to go actually with that one because we haven't even gotten there yet, at least for the reports. But for the actual movements of the stock, Target, NBJ's Wholesale were leading the way. Over the last month, though, those names have lagged their Peers. So what we could hear in the reports that could change the momentum, I don't know, we'll see. Guy, what do you make? Target's been really the big laggard that we've been focusing on so much. Especially when you look at the divergence between Wal Mart and Target. We know that we like to compare them, even though we also know that the mix is different. But if you were to look at these two names now, do you see opportunity before we hear the results?
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Guy Adami
First of all, welcome.
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Melissa Lee
Thanks.
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Guy Adami
You on Worldwide Exchange this morning. You're here now. Yeoman's work, number one. Number two, I think if you want help in Target being long the stock, I think you're hoping for some change in terms of the C suite because this administration over the last three and a half, four years has not done a good job. You know that better than anybody. You're not at liberty to say? I will say that. And I think that's what people might be waiting for. Valuation has been compelling for Target for the last three and a half years. It's been a foolish avenue to go to. Wal Mart's doing everything right, Target's doing everything wrong. I think if you want to be long the stock, you're hoping there's some sort of shake up.
- [03:30]
Dan Nathan
Yeah, I just add that, you know, none of the big box retailers, Wal Mart, Costco, you can throw like Best Buy Index in there. I mean, none of them have confirmed the new highs in the S&P 500. Right. So if you think about some of the headwinds that, you know, some of these retailers have had as it relates to the potential for a protracted trade war, these, I guess investors are not saying that they're out of the woods just yet. We knew there was a pull forward, a lot of inventory. Right. Stock backing up against those potential tariffs here. But I do think, you know, over the last two months we've had numerous new highs in the S&P 500 and none of these stocks have really participated. I'm having a hard time just looking at any major retailers that have actually confirmed the new highs in the S&P 500. So to me, that places potentially an opportunity. Like if you have beats and raises across the board, I just don't see that happening. And I think that if you do have this better than expected Q2, it's likely not too different than what we saw in Q1. Again, about a pull forward a little bit. And some of these names, you know, you mentioned Target. Well, most expensive stock, Costco's Expensive stock, you'd say, well, they're always expensive, they always have been. But right now I think they face a very different challenge than they have over the last couple of years. And it might not to be too different than some of the supply chain issues they had during COVID right after Cordy.
- [04:41]
Melissa Lee
When I'm thinking about a name like Home Depot, it's an important stock. It's obviously part of the Dow, but it often doesn't move that much on earnings, not as much as maybe some of the other retailers do. But we love to read through the details to see what they're talking about for the housing market. And of course, we have this very tight supply. So if you're going to play a name in housing, do you want a homebuilder or do you want home improvement retailer like a Lowe's or Home Depot? Yeah.
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Courtney Reagan
And it's going to be interesting to see how this plays out.
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Melissa Lee
Right.
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Courtney Reagan
Because interest rates are still high and a majority of homeowners have mortgages under 4%. So even if rates come down a little bit, there's just no moving on those existing homes. And so Home Depot has been saying is this is actually good for us because you are going to see more people improving their homes. They have a lot more of the professional business. They call that their pro business, which really should benefit them. They're expecting actually that to return back to growth here in 2025. So I think the hope is that you start to see that translating. But in the overall housing market, I do think that higher interest rates are still a good thing for your home builders because those existing homes aren't coming on, which means those younger people who want to buy houses, those new homes are what are going to fill the void. And at some point you want to see rates come down because that's really what's going to bring more people into the market. But in the meantime, Home Depot saying it should be a good thing, we want to see when earnings actually come out.
- [05:53]
Melissa Lee
Tim, there's so much focus on tariffs and the impact of tariffs on some of these stocks. I think we're really only going to see it for maybe, maybe half the quarter and certainly not to the degree that could have been when we heard those first levels from April 2, what do you think investors need to understand about what we're going to hear and what the stocks are already pricing in? Now, as it pertains to tariffs, they.
- [06:19]
Tim Seymour
Need, they need to feel comfortable with the merchandise mix. So those retailers that don't have the milk and eggs Component are the ones that I think we're most concerned about.
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Melissa Lee
Now.
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Tim Seymour
We have to have some understanding also from the retailers. And I actually think this group is going to surprise in terms of where at least consensus is and what this quarter was like. And there are dynamics especially related to some pull forward. The interest rate sensitivity around Home Depot I think is something that's moved the stock. It hasn't necessarily brought more people into the stores. But I think what I want to hear about is that business in between back to school and Christmas because that's the most important dynamic for the next four or five months. Because that's the part where tariffs will really see people fall off the, off the cliff in terms of demand or where high credit card bills that we, you know, guy talks about this all the time. I mean there are dynamics on the credit side. I'm worried about everything other than back to school and Christmas. And I think the places that you stay are the places that have proven to be resilient in the face even of tariff conjecture. That is Wal Mart, that is Home Depot and I'm going to pay more for them.
- [07:27]
Melissa Lee
All right, Dan, I've got a nerdy question. We were talking about this before the show. So Wal Mart is one of the retailers that warned, look, we use the retail inventory method of accounting because of that and there's a ratio involved with how we get to profitability. It could take some time for the impact of tariffs to go all the way through. So as costs go up, our profitability might be temporarily inflated. Do you think investors understand that and do you think we're going to see higher profitability? Call it false profits from some of these retailers. A Walmart, a Home Depot, a Target that use REM accounting that isn't actually showing us the true profit story.
- [08:06]
Dan Nathan
Well, I think most investors have become really sophisticated about this sort of stuff. Right. You'll hear this all the time on earnings calls. Like, you know, management kind of suggests that this is maybe not apples to oranges right here or the way analysts kind of break it down. So I think those are really important metrics to keep an eye on. It definitely gives a sense of like what sort of goalposts they're using in different parts, but generally this would play out over a long period of time. I think oftentimes when you see big currency moves, for instance, for multinationals who are kind of expressing what their profits look like in a certain environment, they often will say constant currency. Right. And so it gives analysts and investors the opportunity to compare things. Apples to Apples. But it's a great point. And I think that, you know, oftentimes in different market environments, you will see some investors or some managements kind of use data or use metrics that kind of suit their outlook for a company or an industry.
- [08:58]
Melissa Lee
Courtney, we always talk about the forward looking guidance more important potentially than the quarter just reported for any industry.
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Courtney Reagan
Right.
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Melissa Lee
Because it's backward looking. Even more important now as we're looking into the back half of the year with maybe a little bit more clarity on where tariff rates are now ex China, since that's still an extended deadline. Yeah.
- [09:17]
Courtney Reagan
And I think that's the hope is you do hopefully get some clarity when you actually hear guidance. Because when you looked at last quarter, these tariffs were so new and so uncertain that people were either pulling guidance or just not giving any sort of indication of how this is going to affect them. And I think at this point there, there's hopefully been enough time and enough certainty in place they can give that that guidance moving forward. And we've really had a really positive earnings season. I mean, coming into this, analysts were expecting earnings per share to come in like 3 1/2% increase year over year. It's on track for over 10% year over year. I mean, it has been a really good earnings season. So I think to see how the retailers come out and how that shows the consumer has been holding up even with any potential increases, I think that's a really important to see with the overall economy.
- [09:54]
Melissa Lee
That's a great point about earnings. Well, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelinsky meeting with President Trump at the White House today. Today alongside seven European leaders. The group discussing options for a peace deal that would end the war between Russia and Ukraine. Coming off the heels of Trump's meeting with Russia's Vladimir Putin. That was on Friday. Remember that? Well, let's bring in CNBC's Eamon Javas for the latest. He's been following every twist and turn. Amen. What do we know about today?
- [10:20]
Eamon Javers
Well, Courtney, what we know as of about three minutes ago is that a White House official just texted me to confirm that the meeting has now ended between President Trump and those European leaders, along with President Zelensky here at the White House. So we should be starting to see pictures at some point of departures of those European leaders out on the South Lawn of the White House. Maybe not with all the pomp and circumstance that we saw, the arrivals, but nonetheless we'll keep an eye out for that. And there is a report in German media which is unconfirmed, but German media reporting that at least their sources are telling them that President Trump stepped out of this meeting to call Vladimir Putin and put the meeting on hold essentially while he was on the phone with Vladimir Putin. That is not confirmed. I spoke to some White House officials in the West Wing just a short time ago who said they simply don't know because they're not the officials I can get to physically are not obviously in the room in the meeting. So we'll wait and see if we can get confirmation on that detail. Sort of the idea being a real time negotiation between all these parties taking place, you know, around the world and in the White House at the same time. But, you know, a real sense of optimism here, Courtney, from President Trump and President Zelensky and a real effort by the NATO alliance and the so called coalition of the willing to present a united front in the face of Russian aggression. And we saw the president strike this optimistic tone early on in the multilateral, leading multilateral meeting of all the leaders. Here's what he said.
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Tim Seymour
The Alaska summit reinforced my belief that while difficult, peace is within reach. And I believe that in a very significant step, President Putin agreed that Russia would accept security guarantees for Ukraine. And this is one of the key points that we need to consider and we're going to be considering that at the table also, like who will do what essentially.
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Eamon Javers
So we'll see. Courtney, if we can get some readout from White House officials on what was agreed to, if anything, in this session. A lot of very sensitive details, as Zelinsky said, surrounding the idea of security guarantees for the Ukrainians and what the US Role in that would be. The President, United States not taking the idea of American boots on the ground off the table here, at least for today. Courtney, back over to you.
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Melissa Lee
A lot of action in D.C. amen. Thank you so much for being there for us. Obviously a lot of those world leaders, very interesting to see them all come together. Tim, I want to turn to you for a reaction. I sort of think of you as our, our global markets guy, put it all together. What does it mean for us as we're watching potentially some kind of a deal begin to take shape.
- [12:56]
Tim Seymour
And someone that lived for two years in Russia. So my perspective on this is that it is very complex and the emotions and the history that have. The reason for Nieto's being what it is is exactly. You know, the dynamic with Ukraine is, is something that I'm just not sure Europe is ready to smile and say okay, let alone, let alone Ukraine. But the bottom line is that the couple things that were my first moves from a markets perspective when Russia attacked Ukraine, invaded Ukraine were to buy nuclear and to buy gold and to buy oil. And I do think that the unwind of anything that at least anything less than the current status of where we are, I think given the rally in gold and the rally in nuclear, I think you would see some profit taking and you'd see some pullback. But let's be clear, those are two trades that are rooted in global dynamics that I think have been at work for a long time. So you'd be buying weakness in gold and I think you should be buying weakness in nuclear because Russian energy or any energy reliance is something ask Japan, ask Germany. These are things that are really about national security. So I think it's. First of all, nobody cares what I think about that. It's a brave face that the world's put forward. I think it's nice that ultimately everyone does seem to be trying to find some solutions and they're all doing it at the table together. I will not handicap an outcome here.
- [14:31]
Melissa Lee
We all care about what you think, Tim. That's why we keep asking you back and asking you questions like this. But the geopolitical backdrop obviously could have a very big impact on our next guess. Investment strategy runs a fund rated five stars by Morningstar. Let's bring in Eli Horton. He's senior portfolio manager of the TCW Transform Systems etf. Eli, it's so good to have you here. Welcome to Fast Money for the first time. So obviously we've seen a lot of world leaders meet with the President. It seems like there's some negotiations that might be happening. When we look at the markets in the last couple of days, you would see perhaps benign reaction, but there's opportunity there that you see. Can you explain to us what you're looking at?
- [15:11]
Eli Horton
We think the opportunities are abundant and we're actually looking for them in, I think, places that most investors aren't and hopefully that's a good thing. Be a little different and expect different outcomes. There's a couple, we'll call them mega themes we're extremely interested in. One is the transformation of the global energy system. Two is the re industrialization of the remanufacturing of the US I heard the prior comments on Ukraine and the meetings of the White House. And I think that we're migrating from a fossil fuel system to something that's close to 100% renewables and geopolitical tensions, global security. That is yet another reason why this is happening. Same thing for Remanufacturing. So these are themes we're really excited about in today's market.
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Melissa Lee
Can you give us some actionable plays there?
- [15:57]
Eli Horton
Yeah, absolutely. And the comments on nuclear a moment ago are very relevant. We're extremely interested in the theme of power scarcity and the need for grid investment. So to set the backdrop, in the US electricity demands basically been dead flat for 20 years that is now completely flipped on its head. We believe that by 2050 electricity demand doubles. Why? A few reasons. One, re industrialization, remanufacturing to electrification of transportation and really our entire economy. Three, AI. And AI gets all the headlines, but it's only about a third of the electricity growth.
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Melissa Lee
I was going to say I was surprised you said AI.
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Eli Horton
Third, it's about a third of the growth. And even with that said, it's fascinating. We need to add something like 75 gigawatts of demand to the grid by 2030. For AI, 75 gigawatts is opaque. It means nothing. New York city has about five and a half gigawatts of capacity. So what is that? 15 New York City's worth? So a lot.
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Melissa Lee
That's a lot.
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Eli Horton
And think about the capital goods and the capex to serve this.
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Guy Adami
Unless you work there or covered it, nobody ever heard of Vistra Corp. Over the last decade or so became somewhat of a household name in our world. Over the last year and a half, it's gone from $40 stock, I think it's north of 200 to right around there. $68 billion. Still reasonable valuation. And the story is obviously out there. Is this a name you can still own here?
- [17:16]
Eli Horton
I agree. We own Vistra. We've owned it for over two years. We really admire the company and their capital allocation decisions and they have a very valuable portfolio of power generation. So they acquired a nuclear power generation business, Energy harbor, that was incredibly value accretive. Nuclear power prices have more than doubled, as you've seen from some of the hyperscale deals like Amazon and Microsoft. They also have natural gas. And the fact remains we cannot add enough wind and solar to the grid to solve for our electricity or power shortage. Can't do it. You need natural gas. Vistra has a very attractive nat Gas fleet. We think the company's going to earn more than the street does. We also think the multiple is very reasonable and it fits right in a bottleneck of businesses that are capitalizing on this theme. And to your point, it's not a household name. Most investors haven't heard of it. Most investors are unexposed to these types of businesses.
- [18:10]
Dan Nathan
You like, help me out with this. Torsten Slok of Apollo had a note out today. I thought it was really interesting. We all know that 70% of US GDP is consumer spending, consumer demand. And he highlighted the fact that in the first half of this year that capital expenditures related to a data center buildout actually had the same contribution as consumer spending. And when you think about that, like these are some themes that you're focused on. At some point there will be a slowdown in capex spend for AI and it might come at the same time that the consumer is having a difficult time and slow down. That changes a lot of dynamics in our economy. I'm just curious like how you think about that.
- [18:46]
Eli Horton
You have to watch it. And this is a great reason to not invest passively and to invest with an active investor who's deep in the weeds and doing bottom up work. That's what we try to do. We have a portfolio of 2030 stocks. We try to be in the details and have a differentiated view. With that said, if you look prior to 2023 US capex to sales ratios were at 20 year lows. We have chronically under invested in the industrial goods, the manufacturing footprint, the grid of this country, the average high voltage transformer is 40 years old. So just as we went through chronic underinvestment, we're now on a collision course with structural capex needs to grow our industrial base to rebuild the grid. And so yes, we're watching it but we think that this capex is very needed and very warranted.
- [19:29]
Melissa Lee
Before we let you go, some of the old economy stocks that you're interested in tell us about this theory and give us some names.
- [19:35]
Eli Horton
Look, we talked about Vistra, there's a variety of businesses. GE Vernova is another interesting one. So we've owned GE since the day it spun out of General Electric. It used to be called GE Power. No one cared about it because NAT Gas turbines were no one wanted one. And in 2023 they produced about half the number of turbines as the prior decade. Average NAT Gas was left for dead. There's like three companies in the world who make these. And so we're able to find some of these old economy companies that have faced headwinds for really a couple of decades as manufacturing moved out of the US that are now seeing those headwinds turned into tailwinds that drives an acceleration in fundamentals against valuations that are attractive. And that's a nice backdrop for us and it's a good complement to what's in the broad indices which doesn't really look like old economy for the most part.
- [20:22]
Melissa Lee
Really interesting stuff, ELI. And your ETF up 17% over the last three months, 29% year to date. Thanks so much for joining us here on FAST money. Appreciate it. Courtney, what do you think this theory make a lot of sense? Yeah.
- [20:34]
Courtney Reagan
I really like the energy play. I mean I think there's the fact that there's not enough energy to go around right now is just not, I guess it is starting to get talked about, but it's not invested enough. I mean when you look at the percentage of energy compared to the SV, it's like between 3 and 4% of the S&P 100. It used to be a much larger share. And that demand going forward is just so astronomical. And I do think he makes a really good point where we get excited about things like nuclear, but there's just in the short term there's not going to be enough nuclear to fill the demand. This is kind of an all hands on deck. So I think some of your older economies or natural gas, your oils like those are going to have to fill the gap and it's going to be a benefit for your entire energy sector.
- [21:10]
Melissa Lee
Seems really fascinating. Meeting well, coming up, we've got new details on the government's reported interest in intel, just how much the administration is looking to buy and what it would mean for the semi space. Plus all the news out of Novo Nordisk, a new use case for its blockbuster weight loss drug and how it's hoping a deal with the telehealth platform will boost sales. Don't go anywhere. Fast MONEY back into.
- [21:34]
Tim Seymour
You're watching FAST MONEY here on cnbc. We'll be right back. My name is Josh Brown. The best stocks in the market is very simple. These are stocks with good fundamentals. A great story and technically they're in the process of rising higher. Everyone needs to invest. The cost of living goes up every year. The purchasing power of the dollar goes down. Assuming we're all going to be here for a very long time, we're going to need more money. The stock market is how that happens. Join Pro for exclusive access to Josh Brown's Best Stocks in the Market at cnbc.com/best stocks.
- [22:18]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. We have an earnings alert on Palo Alto Networks. Shares jumping after the company reported better than expected results for its latest quarter. Mackenzie Segalis has the latest time. Hey Courtney. So Palo Alto Networks posting a solid quarter with the stock popping as much as 6%. After hours on those results, the cybersecurity firm beat on both the top and bottom line. With adjusted earnings of 95 cents a share and revenue up 16% to 2.54 billion. Guidance was also bullish here. The company expects both fiscal Q1 and full year results to top estimates and is projecting up to 15.5 billion in future commitments.
- [22:56]
Courtney Reagan
And that's a key measure of how.
- [22:57]
Melissa Lee
Much business it already has in the pipeline. And then there is a shake up happening in the C suite. Its founder and CTO is stepping down with the current product chief set to take over. It caps a turbulent stretch for the company. That $25 billion deal to buy Cyber Ark, which is its biggest ever, really rattled investors. And shares slid on the news, haven't bounced back yet. So we'll see if tonight's gains hold at the open court. Thank you very much, Mac. Tim, what do you make of Palo Alto Networks? You like this bounce?
- [23:29]
Tim Seymour
It's okay. Look, it's been a middling stock, it's been rangebound, it's not terribly expensive relative to itself. These were solid numbers, at least in terms of the quarter. They beat consensus by one and a half points in terms of the top line, the guide somewhere right in the middle. So maybe a bit of relief and I think you can own it, but I'm not sure this is where if I'm going to own security, I'm going to own cyber. I'd rather be in crowdstrike.
- [23:59]
Melissa Lee
Guy, what about you?
- [24:00]
Guy Adami
I think you can stay with it. I mean it sold off enough where this quarter was good enough. The guidance for full year 26 was good enough, the growth is good enough to justify the valuation. They're best in breed in the space. So despite this move in the after hours, I think you stay long the.
- [24:13]
Dan Nathan
Name, you know, it's a curious situation of the CTO leave weeks after they just make this announcement of $25 billion acquisition of CyberArk. And so there must have been some things going on there that, you know, know, the CEO or the board was not particularly happy about. But Guy and I were talking about this earlier today. You know, when you make an acquisition of this size and make no mistake about it, I mean, this is a massive acquisition. This would be bigger than the, well, very near the acquisition that Google made just earlier in the year of whiz. You know, you say to yourself, you know what's going on in the space. And Tim just mentioned the stock is very rangebound and at the levels of valuation that these stocks are trading for, if they're going to start becoming roll ups. I think that they should actually be trading at a bit more of a discount. Right. If you have to kind of acquire growth, that sort of thing. So, you know, they obviously made this acquisition thinking of a position of strength when they put this sort of quarter up. But I don't think this quarter in guidance were that good. I think it's a bit of a relief rally here.
- [25:07]
Melissa Lee
Yeah. All three of you kind of go, we're going to, we're going to move on to Intel. It is down about five and a half percent today after Bloomberg reported that the US government is looking to take a 10% stake in the chip maker. Now, the deal wouldn't be a direct investment, but rather the administration would convert some or all of the company's chip act grants into equity. So initial news of the deal sent intel shares soaring late last week with the stock locking in its best week since February. Courtney, this one was wild. I think when the headlines first came across, we all thought, what, what do you make of the action of potentially the government stake? Where do you want to take this?
- [25:42]
Courtney Reagan
Yeah, I mean, this has been all over the place. I mean, Trump has been for intel against Intel. I think what this, this is showing is probably on the White House's good side, which I think is ultimately probably a good thing for Intel. But I don't think it fixes a lot of like the underlying business problems. You're seeing server share loss, like their foundry business. The question is like, what is the future of that look like? And even if that gets rolling the way people are hoping it is, it's going to be years for break even there. So I think a lot of those problems aren't going to be fixed by this news, but I do think it hopefully just means they're on Trump's good side. That takes away some of the, you know, some of the uncertainty.
- [26:13]
Melissa Lee
Guy, what do you think that you can do with intel here because of all this uncertainty?
- [26:16]
Guy Adami
Is there a trade stay long? I know it's down today, 23 and change. It had that big move north of 25, but I think a floor is in. I've thought it was a Homeland Security play, but I thought it from much higher levels. Now it appears to be coming to fruition and the CEO goes from being compromised in terms of his relationship with the Chinese to being invited to the White House and now the administration taking a second stake. So I think the floor is 21. That's been sort of the low. I think the upside might be north of 32.
- [26:43]
Dan Nathan
That's interesting. I don't think the government investing in a company like this puts a floor in it or put some sort of put in it. If you think about what we saw in the wake of the financial crisis and all the stakes the government had to take, I mean, it took a long time for these companies to kind of work their way out of this. And it doesn't guarantee any level of innovation that's higher than what they have been doing for the last 10 or 15 years. And they have had what, four CEOs and a bunch of restructurings here. So the end of the day, I mean, the government probably looks at it as a, I don't know, free call, if you will. You know, it's a rounding error as far as what our budget is. And they're basically got their pound of flesh. You know, they basically almost pushed the CEO out. And the company has been underperforming in almost every which way. They missed some major technologies and they lost massive market shares in some of the ones that they used to to do well. And so to me, I think it's kind of dead money. And I'm not sure again that the government stake really means a whole heck of a lot for the company.
- [27:37]
Melissa Lee
Very interesting dead money. But guy says stay long where there's a lot more fast to come. Here's a look at what's coming up.
- [27:45]
Tim Seymour
Novo playing catch up. The WeGovi headlines pushing that stock higher today and how a partnership with one telehealth company is giving another stock a booster shot. Plus even more room to run. Alphabet's put together a big summer rally and the Chartmaster sees more gains ahead. He lays out the case next. You're watching Fast MONEY live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this CNBC make it's online course how to build a standout personal brand. Three industry experts will show you how to create and grow your brand step by step. There's no time like now to start building your personal brand. Register now@cnbcmakeit.com Personal Brand.
- [28:33]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. Novo Nordisk popping nearly 4% after its weight loss drug Wegovy was approved for the treatment of MASH liver disease. It's the first GLP1 drug to get FDA approval for that indication. The company also announcing cash paying patients can now get Ozempic and Wegovy for half the monthly list price and expanding the discounts to more than 70,000 pharmacies nationwide in partnership with drug Savings company Good Rx, that stock soaring 37% for its biggest one day move ever. Tim. I mean it's a lot of headlines to keep track of when we're trying to watch the GLP1 space but getting another indication feels like only something that is bullish, no?
- [29:14]
Tim Seymour
Well, for Novo it's been tough to find a bullish call and as someone that's been long the Stock probably from 15 bucks higher, you know, I'm happy to see this news. I actually think this is news you want to invest around. And I think the price competitive nature between Lilly and Novo is something that at least this is some sense where today the good news for Novo was something that was bad news for, for, for Lilly ultimately puts a cap potentially in on the price side of it. It also just emphasizes the DTC business they have through Goodrx. And I think that the news we had with Lilly over the last couple weeks in terms of missing by 1 to 2 points, percentage points in terms of the weight loss on the most recent phase is something that I just think gets you back to the same argument that people had against Novo. I think therefore people are looking at relative value at this point and I think it's very much with Novo. So it was a good day for Novo. There's been a lot of bad days.
- [30:14]
Guy Adami
I've tried to make the valuation case a number of times unsuccessfully. But you go back to I think the fall of 2022, the stock was mired around $48. It spent the next year and a half or so going from 48 to about a buck 50. And then obviously we've round turned the entire move. That's the good news. The fact that we traded down to the breakout levels and seemingly have held. So if you want to play a little stock market against sort of the 49 level, this might be the best entry point you've had in world the while.
- [30:41]
Melissa Lee
Well, coming up, is there more bounce left in Alphabet's recent rebound? What the chartmaster sees in store for the tech giant after its summer in the sun. Plus Tesla's technicals are crossroad where the stock drives from here we'll find out when Fast Money returns.
- [30:58]
Tim Seymour
Missed a moment of fast. Catch us anytime on the go follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.
- [31:14]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks closing now near the flat line to kick off this week as investors await retail earnings and Fed chair Jerome Powell's annual speech at the Jackson Hole Summit. All three indexes moving less than a tenth of a percent. Unitedhealth shares though, continuing to climb, adding to gains after Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a new stake. And the beaten down insurance giant shares up more than 22% in fact over the last week. On that news, shares of Reddit and Live Nation touching fresh all time highs today while Hasbro notched an 11 day win streak that is its longest run since 2017. Shares up more than 9% in that time. Well, JP Morgan is losing top banking talent to Citigroup at a rapid rate. This is according to a new Financial Times report. Support Citi's banking chief accelerating a push to hire his former JP Morgan colleagues with at least 10 senior investment bankers joining him at his new home. While shares of both banks are up double digits in 2025, Citi has outperformed JPM by roughly 12 percentage points. Dan, you flagged this story. What do you find interesting about this one in particular?
- [32:18]
Dan Nathan
I think it says a lot about this IPO backlog a little bit. Right. So if you think about the lock that, you know, Goldman and Morgan Stanley have had on some of the Most high profile IPOs, this goes back multiple cycles and JP Morgan started to find himself in that upper echelon. So when you think about a big money center bank like Citi making these sorts of moves, it kind of suggests that this is the time right now. Right. And we've already seen some very successful IPOs this year. We know that the last few years have been really bad. So, you know, the idea of kind of staffing up and maybe trying to win some stuff that you might not have otherwise, then I think that makes some sense. And I kind of spend speaks a little bit again to the environment we're in.
- [32:55]
Melissa Lee
So what do you make of this sort of changing colleagues around at the bank and who's going where for what reason?
- [33:03]
Tim Seymour
Well, it's nice to see Citi being able to compete and it's nice to see a focus on investment banking. And no question JP Morgan is some of the best bankers in the world. My guess is Citi's got pretty good bankers right now as well. Though the reason I want to own Citi is not because they may be rating JP Morgan's investment banking team is because it's still significantly cheaper than JP Morgan. And I think the relative improvement both in terms of the efficiency of this bank and where they are actually just benefiting from the trends in the broader economy right now, a steeper yield curve. Now granted, a lot of this could change for moneycenter banks which have outperformed on the tailwind from regulatory plus, the economy being resilient enough for now. MoneyCenter banks still have that backdrop and I'd rather own cities cheaper.
- [33:50]
Melissa Lee
Interesting stuff. Well, coming up, the toll that tariffs are taking on auto prices, which models might cost you more? We'll talk about it coming up on Fast Money. Welcome back to Fast money. Auto tariffs starting to make their way to the consumer. But some carmakers, including one on this board, are actually lowering prices. Philippeau has some answers for us. Phil, can you explain?
- [34:18]
Philippeau
Well, basically overall, what we're looking at right now, Courtney, is that the average transaction price, which is the price that you actually pay, not the msrp, not something you see splashed on the front of a windshield at a dealership, it's what you pay. It's up 1.5% on average compared to a year ago. That's July to July according to Kelly Blue Book. The msrp, which is what the automakers would like the dealers to charge the suggested retail price, that's up 2.4%. So there's an indication there that the consumers, when they can, are trying to see if they can pull back a little bit. Some of that is through decontenting or looking for a lower trim level. By the way, incentives still remain about 7% of the average transaction price at more than $3,500. That said, there are some brands that are increasing year over year in terms of what the transaction price is. Some of that is because they have newer models and there's some demand there. Some of it is because they have to pass along the tariffs. Cadillac is up more than 10%. So is land Rover, so is Infiniti. Volkswagen, up almost 10% in terms of average transaction prices. And yet as you mentioned, there are some that are seeing average transaction prices fall. Stellantis is a good example of this. Jeep is down more than 10%, down almost 11%. Tesla, we know the issue there because of the competition, they're having to roll out more of the lower end models for them. Lower end. And then you have Acura and Chrysler, obviously another division of Stellantis. Speaking of Tesla, as you take a look at shares of Tesla, a couple of interesting reports today. One is that they're cutting their leasing fees out of the UK because of competition over there. And the other one is that they're rolling out a new model in China, the model Y L L standing for a longer version because long wheelbase vehicles are very popular in China. They need to come out with more versions of vehicles over there because of the competition. When it comes to electric vehicles. But Courtney, that's where things stand. About four months into the auto tariffs, which now stand between 15 and 25% depending on where a vehicle is built.
- [36:21]
Melissa Lee
So I learned something new. Decontenting. I've never heard that as a phrase. I'm glad I learned that.
- [36:26]
Philippeau
Go for a lower trim level. Think about going for a lower trim level.
- [36:30]
Melissa Lee
But I just hadn't heard it. I hadn't heard it used. I like that. And then this new model in China, you're saying, you know, they need more models like this. It's a six seater. Do we not like those kind of cars here? Just fill me in on that.
- [36:42]
Philippeau
They're not popular in the long wheel version. Long wheelbase version vehicles have never really been popular in the United States. You can find them if you look for them. They have always been popular in China. Some of that goes back to long ago. It was popular to have a chauffeur drive you around. That's why long wheelbase vehicles have always sold well within China.
- [37:04]
Melissa Lee
Got it. When you're talking about six seats, I'm like, I got a bunch of kids. I might be interested in that. Phil, thank you so much. I appreciate the education. You bet. Courtney, what do you make of sort of the auto trade, Tesla in specific, the impact of tariffs? Where do you go with these? Are there trades to be made?
- [37:20]
Courtney Reagan
Yeah, I mean, honestly in the auto space, I'm not expecting like crazy growth here. So there's nothing I'm overly excited about. But I do think we're talking about all the tariff costs, which the auto industry is one that's going to be exposed that probably more than any other industries are. But the other big factor when you're buying a car is how much you're financing that for. Because many people buy a car is getting financed. And if interest rates come down, specifically the short end of the curve, if the Fed starts lowering rates, which they're expected to do next month, that should be a boost for your autos. Because even if it's going up with tariff prices, if your interest rates are coming down, that may offset some of that and hopefully increase some demand. I don't think this is going to be mind blowing. I don't think it's something, you know, I'm jumping into for a ton of growth here. But I do think it'll be a benefit for the area.
- [37:58]
Guy Adami
Look at Nikkei is making an all time high. Toyota motors. One of the biggest components, the 195ish level has been resistant since this time last year. I think that's on the verge of a bit of a breakout here. So GM $60 is a level they got to get through but Toyota right here at 195 quite.
- [38:14]
Melissa Lee
Courtney, we're going to make a quick turn to Eamon Javors. We understand he has some breaking news on Ukraine. Eamonn, what do you know?
- [38:21]
Eamon Javers
Courtney, there's a new report from the FTSE just in the past couple of moments and they're reporting that the Ukrainian side is prepared now to offer $100 billion in purchases of U.S. weapon systems in order to get a deal with the United States for security guarantees in Ukraine. No word in this report from the FT on what's on going specific weapon systems. Those would be the FT suggesting that money would be financed by the European side. And this might appeal to President Trump's deal making sensibility in his effort to improve, situate, improve the economic situation for American manufacturers. We're also learning that the President the meeting has broken up, but the President has invited the European leaders into the Oval Office and is giving them a tour. This is described as sort of a more informal social piece of the series of events that we've had today. But of course if you're in the Oval Office with the President of the United States, it's never fully informal and it's never fully social. This is clearly an ongoing conversation that's happening, although the formal part of that meeting has now broken up.
- [39:23]
Melissa Lee
Courtney, great stuff. Amy Jeffers, thank you very much for the update. More Fast Money coming up. We are going to chart Alphabet for you, see what might be in store for this name. We'll be back. Welcome back to Fast Money. Alphabet shares closing back in on all time highs now just over a percent from the record it hit back in February. The chartmaster says it may be due to past that mark and then some. Carter Worth joins us with a look at Alphabet. Carter, what are the charts tell you?
- [40:00]
Carter Worth
Hi there. Sure, let's get right to it. I have a couple of tables that might be relevant. The circumstance that's interesting of course is so many stocks having sold off marquee big names, Microsoft, Nvidia, Matt, you pick it, Netflix, Oracle that sold off with the tariff sell off have all recovered all the losses and made new highs. But of course Google has not. You'll see here in this first table that Google was the worst on the way down losing some 32% from its February pre tariff sell off peak to its April plunge low. Now the ricochet second table depicts the circumstance from the low to present and obviously Google's had a tremendous move, up 45%. That's epic. But so has everything else. But the third table really tells the tale. Google has not right made a new high. Whereas the S and P Index 500 has the NASDAQ 100 big tech names again like Microsoft and Video, Netflix, you pick it. Even the tech sector overall or the communications sector. So this is either the opportunity or the problem. I think it's the former. It's the opportunity. Let's look at two charts of Google. First, no lines, no drawings, no annotations. Second, just a simple line or two to the penny. Having moved some 45% right back to its former high of February 4th. My thinking is, as has been the case with so many other stocks, Google exceeds its pre tariff sell off, breaks out and makes a new high.
- [41:31]
Melissa Lee
And you mentioned it a couple of times here with that one. But Metta, you and Dan were also talking about that one earlier. What do you see here?
- [41:39]
Carter Worth
Right, well Metta, we might have charts as well. Metta. Metta did break out right in its almost always fundamentals that cause a breakout. In this case it was earnings was on 30 July and the stock moves above those well defined former highs and now sort of backing and filling. You'll see in the next iteration and perhaps the third chart that the stock is after breaking out, a little bit dull, a little bit lackluster. But that's normative behavior. And any dipping, further dipping from here today, a bit of a down day. I would say that's weakness to take advantage of rather than weakness to back away from. So a buyer of matter yet having made the new high and now affording an opportunity to pick up more or initiate if one doesn't have any.
- [42:28]
Melissa Lee
I know you sent out a note on Tesla. We were just talking about it with Phil. What do you see in Tesla here, Carter?
- [42:34]
Carter Worth
Yeah, we, we just did a poll. We do these from time to time. Tesla is basically sitting what, at the apex of a formation. Some people call it a triangle, some people call it a wedge, but it represents equilibrium, a perfect of a standoff between bears and bulls. And this is how people have responded. Institutional investors. So to be individual portfolio managers or long, short, long only economists, what have you. 60% are positive, calling for the up arrow, 30% negative. It's different on the individual investor side only 43% are positive and 57 are negative.
- [43:14]
Melissa Lee
Carter Worth, thank you so much for joining us with those three names. Alphabet, Metta and Tesla. Dan, I'm going to let you dig in since you and Carter were talking about Metta.
- [43:22]
Dan Nathan
Yeah, Met is the most interesting of all those names to me. If you think about it when he's talking about Google, it's gotten back to this point, you know, for it to break out, I think that a lot of things have to happen probably from a fundamental standpoint. Well, those fundamental things have already happened with Meta. Right. And already did have that breakout. It's consolidated above those prior highs. I know a lot of of folks have kind of relied a little bit on that valuation that had been favorable until recently. It's not that favorable, but I like it from a technical standpoint. I like a lot of things that they're doing. I like the fact that they keep trying to fix their AI business. They're on their fourth restructuring of that right now. Sooner or later they're going to write. And Zuckerberg keeps spending hundreds of billions of dollars on that build out hundreds of millions of dollars on hiring people.
- [44:03]
Melissa Lee
Keep trying. Well, it's almost time for your final trades are coming up next. We'll be right back. Time for final trades.
- [44:16]
Tim Seymour
Tim, great energy conversation. Constellation hits all those themes.
- [44:21]
Courtney Reagan
Courtney also energy. We talked about this earlier. Take a look at the xle.
- [44:25]
Dan Nathan
Dan yeah, Adobe making a double bottom here.
- [44:28]
Melissa Lee
And Guy, you're the best. Court tm thanks for watching Fast Money Bad Money starts right now.
- [44:36]
Courtney Reagan
All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable. But neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer My name is Josh Brown.
- [45:17]
Tim Seymour
The best stocks in the market is very simple. These are stocks with good fundamentals. A great story, and technically they're in the process of rising higher. Everyone needs to invest. The cost of living goes up every year. The purchasing power of the dollar goes down. Assuming we're all going to be here for a very long time, we're going to need more money. The stock market is how that happens. Join Pro for exclusive access to Josh Brown's Best stocks in the market@cnbc.com Beststocks.