← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
Retailers Weigh In On Weakening Consumer… And Opportunities In The Sell Off 3/13/25
00:43:49
Discretionary stocks leading the market lower, as retailers sound the alarm on the pressure facing consumers. How inflation and tariff concerns are impacting buyers, and what it means for the largest retail companies. And While stocks continue to drop, some names may be presenting attractive entry points. The discounted names our traders are watching, and the technical levels that back them up. Fast Money Disclaimer
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- [00:00]
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- [00:50]
Melissa Lee
Live from the NASDAQ marketsite in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. A consumer capitulation. Retail names among the hardest hit in today's broad market sell off extending losses in already painful week. What the moves say about the state of the shopper and where the stocks go from here. And banking blues. JP Morgan riding a six day losing streak as the financials face a losing week of their own. But the pullback means for the banking trade and how much more pain is there to come? Plus, gold nears a milestone. What is next for the precious metal? Intel puts in its best two day run in over 24 years. Is this the start of a turnaround for the embattled chip maker and buying opportunities? The traders make picks for stocks that might be bottoming out and Chris Verone will grade the charts. I'm Melissa Lee coming to you live from Studio B at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Karen Feiderman, Dan Nathan, Guy Damie and Chris Verone, partner and chief market strategist at Strategus, a Baird company. We start off with the crumbling consumer with the S&P 500 now more than 10% off its record high. The discretionary group under particular stress. The sector on pace for its worst week since September 2022 now trading at six months. Month lows nearly three out of every four stocks in the space in bear market territory more than 20% off their 52 week highs. And more and more companies sounding the alarm for what is to come. Delta Airlines, Costco, Kohl's just a few of the names slashing guidance for the current quarter and beyond. They cite inflation tariffs as clamping down on their customers. Across the income spectrum. Some of the stocks hardest hit this month, Best Buy, Expedia, Carnival, Ralph Lauren and Caesars, all down about 20% already in March. So with, with uncertainty mounting, what does the action this space tell us about the broader markets and this narrative that there is a growth scare? Consumers are living that out in how they purchase. Guy.
- [02:38]
Dan Nathan
And we hear it from all over the place now. And Delta was the latest one. Dan talked about it the other night, by the way, that silver linings Dan, who I'm sure will have some encouraging things to say later on in the show. But it's clear that the consumer has been strapped and you know, they will spend, as we have said, under any circumstances, unless they get scared. And what scares them, what we've been living through over the last couple of weeks. And I think that's why things are changing so quickly. I do think that things change for Delta that quickly. So I'm going to give them not necessarily a pass, but I think the ground is moving under their feet. And I think you can see continued pain in the space here.
- [03:12]
Karen Feinerman
To me, the most interesting one is Costco because they're such good operators, right. They seem to be able to be nimble and address any kind of environment. And so for them to express some concern is interesting. I mean, the stock is down, but it's, it's still very expensive. Not that it's not worth it. I've just never owned it because it's always been too expensive. But they're really in touch with that consumer and so that it is concerning. But I do think that as long as people are still employed and we'll see how long that lasts. There's an asterisk there that we've seen. We've seen the consumer ebb and flow and I think we've also seen valuations really move a lot. And, and I think some of them are just really overdone. For companies that have good balance sheets, they may have big buybacks in place. And you're starting to also see, though, conservative guidance no matter what.
- [04:02]
Melissa Lee
Right.
- [04:02]
Karen Feinerman
So which I understand risks, absolutely. Why not give conservative guidance?
- [04:07]
Guy Adami
Yeah, but you know, you mentioned the valuation. No one cared on the way up. No one cared about Wal mart trading at 30 times. No one cared about Costco. I just heard somebody say to me today, well, you know, Costco has been trading at this multiple. How could you buy that? What's been trading at that multiple for five years, you know what I mean? But now all Of a sudden it's down 20% and quick. And you know, you think about Wal Mart 20%. I mean the last time this stock in two weeks has moved 20%. You got to go all the way back to 20, 22. The stock was 50 bucks. It went straight to 40 bucks. And that was when they were dealing with the inventory problems post Covid, you know but this one is really interesting to me and I know guys like Dick's for a while but this Stock went from 52 week highs, all time highs to 52 week lows in three weeks. When you see that sort of price action, you know that is wholesale selling. Now what's interesting about this company, yeah it's discretionary but I don't know man, like things were so good three weeks ago and we've seen such a turn in consumer confidence and this is not expensive stock.
- [05:01]
Melissa Lee
It was all when Wal Mart came out with, by the way, gold crossed 3,000 for the first time. We'll have much more in gold later on but that is a notable level that we want to bring to your attention. But the Wal Mart chart, market alert Gold crossing 3,000 for the first time.
- [05:17]
Guy Adami
Still crossing 3,000.
- [05:19]
Melissa Lee
I mean they might do it again.
- [05:20]
Karen Feinerman
What happened?
- [05:21]
Melissa Lee
No, okay, 3001 Wal Mart, when they report earnings and they had the commentary, that's when everything turned. That really was a marker in the, in the markets.
- [05:31]
Chris Verone
And let's remember it's called a growth scare for a reason. Because it's scary, right? If markets bottomed on good news, this business would be easy. Markets bottom on bad news, it's a correction. And in corrections there's a reason. Stocks go down, the news gets bad. And I think what we have to judge is how far are we along in that process. Remember, 2025 began with great expectations and part of the year we thought the first half of the year would be chipping away those expectations. So I think the question we have to ask and Karen, you bring up some great points about where the valuation lows here are. Have you chipped away enough at sentiment over the last number of weeks? I think you're getting close. Maybe 70 or 80%. As they say in our business at the end the piano players get taken out as well. And Costco was a piano player and Wal Mart was a piano player. They were viewed as largely defensive.
- [06:16]
Melissa Lee
Closer to the end, I think we're.
- [06:18]
Chris Verone
In that 70, 80% neighborh. Costco and Walmart defensives or what are often perceived as defensives getting hit here I think is ultimately a sign that you are getting close.
- [06:29]
Melissa Lee
I mean the bull case for Costco is that they can change their mix at any time. That the amount of imported goods that are subject to tariffs, that they handle very low as a percentage basis. And they could just mix things up anyway. You know, instead of getting the dried mangoes that you want, they'll put something else out there. But what is concerning is their commentary about that consumer, which is like the gold standard of consumers. They're saying that consumers are being very choiceful, meaning price conscious. They are trading down in terms of lower cost proteins. They're buying ground beef and chicken instead of higher, you know, maybe steaks.
- [07:04]
Dan Nathan
So this is getting far more granular. But go back a couple of years ago when the dollar stores started talking about how people were trading down from them.
- [07:11]
Melissa Lee
So yes, the dollar general said that.
- [07:13]
Dan Nathan
Exactly.
- [07:14]
Melissa Lee
Or consumables.
- [07:15]
Dan Nathan
So I mean, so there's been, there's been obviously a precedent for this. Now it's manifesting itself in retailers that I think a lot of people thought were impervious to anything. What is interesting, there are some retailers and this is the name we mentioned. I mean Kroger's, which is still a little bit expensive but not ridiculous. I mean, Paul, but Kroger chart, I think I don't have to made an all time high today, but it's pretty close. So there's some operators that are still getting things done.
- [07:39]
Guy Adami
Yeah. And there's other ways to think about what's going on here as it relates to the consumer or at least consumer oriented names. Like looking at Disney, I think I just mentioned, I mean the stock's down 15% since March 3rd. And when you think about the trade war and you think about antagonizing say some of our really good allies north of the border, I'm sure a lot of them go to the Disney World, you know, or Disneyland, whatever the one in Florida is, you know, or maybe, or if you're from Vancouver, maybe you.
- [08:03]
Dan Nathan
Go to the land that's in California.
- [08:05]
Guy Adami
Right. So I'm just saying, you know, and when you think about that, I mean, I don't know about you guys. I've been seeing lots of videos of people up there boycotting U.S. products, you know, so you think about the airlines, you think about the cruises, you think about the parks. I mean, I think there's a little bit of a mosaic here.
- [08:20]
Karen Feinerman
So you can understand why the consumer feels concerned. Right. Particularly if it's a consumer that is also has some money invested in the market and follows it. Right, right. So there's that wealth effect feeling. But I think this, this sort of what seems to be chaotic rollout of tariffs is weighing and I think even if it ends up back where it started, damage is still done.
- [08:43]
Melissa Lee
Right. It's for the same reason that CEOs are feeling less confident because it's so unpredictable.
- [08:48]
Karen Feinerman
Right.
- [08:48]
Melissa Lee
Consumers feel like they need to be prepared. By being prepared, it means not spending money.
- [08:52]
Chris Verone
But let's also put this in context of the tactical consideration of this basket of consumer stocks. I think as we sit here right now, less than 10% of discretionary is above the 50 day moving average. So if you're looking for an area where you'd say, okay, there's actually some washout conditions here, you are, you are largely, you are largely in that ballpark. Let's also not forget we're only three or four weeks removed from the discretionary versus Staples pair actually making a new cycle high. That's something that often deteriorates months and months or even quarters before the big R word starts to creep into people's forecast. So I think it's early to suggest that this is more than a correction. It's certainly not pleasant. S and p is down 10. Could it go down 15? Of course it could. But what we have to do is we have to identify stocks in good long term uptrends that are now flushed. And there are some in consumer that check that box.
- [09:40]
Dan Nathan
It's interesting. You know, we'll go, I'll play Dan Nathan for a second with Silver Linings.
- [09:45]
Guy Adami
You just, you're jumping the thing. I had a silver lining take here, but now I can't do it.
- [09:49]
Melissa Lee
Well, you don't know if it's the same take. You can both be silver lining.
- [09:52]
Dan Nathan
I'm just curious what you think there's a chance tomorrow you see some short term capitulation in the form of this consumer confidence, which is going to be a disaster. So I'll play the role of Karen Feynman for a second and say you could get a day where you open on the low, spend the rest of the day rallying into a weekend where anything could happen. So tomorrow's the day if you want to play a little stock market where things get interesting to the upside, right.
- [10:13]
Guy Adami
And I played a little stock market on the close by, a little qqq. I don't know, just felt like to Chris's point, if that consumer confidence number is really bad, you know, I mean, then maybe that's the sort of thing where you get a bit of a gap down. Maybe it's a half, maybe it's a percent and they rally. But as the silver lining guy on the desk, I think like Amazon is a really interesting one here because yourself.
- [10:32]
Melissa Lee
That means that you're not. Anyway, sorry, go ahead. I'm on Amazon, I called it.
- [10:35]
Guy Adami
You know, I just think that one is interesting because of the retail and the consumer exposure. And let's assume that they operate maybe a little bit better than the Walmart and the Costco right now. And maybe there's some other aspects about their ability to kind of, you know, get the pricing that they want. But then you also have the exposure as far as their cloud business and the investments that they've made in anthropic. I'm not saying you buy the stock, stock right here at $194, but there's a level where the valuation in a name that we have not been able to say a whole heck of a lot looks pretty interesting.
- [11:04]
Karen Feinerman
I agree there for sure and I would buy it. I'm long but I think that they're such an amazing operator. If we look at something, I mean Target is really sort of, they're in the crosshairs of Amazon. They're just taking their lunch. I think Costco, bg, those are all good operators as well. But Amazon also, they could just turn the lever when they want and become a lot more profitable.
- [11:27]
Chris Verone
You know, let's, let's put this discussion for a moment in the context of the macro as well because we just talked about the markets and discretionary and tariffs and DC but we haven't talked about the Fed. And this is not the first growth scare of this bull market the last two and a half years. But it is the first growth scare where we don't really have an eager Fed to get back to accommodative. And I wonder if ultimately that's the, that's the chip that has to fall here. Watch the two year yield. I think if you start to lose the two year yield back under 4% again under 390, that's the market's way of saying hey Powell, you better wake up here because something's not not so right.
- [12:04]
Melissa Lee
Meantime, President Trump doubling down on his tariff plan saying he is not going to bend at all and that won't change his mind on the reciprocal tariffs set to take effect on April 2nd. Eamon Javors is at the White House with the very latest.
- [12:15]
Eamon Javers
Eamonn Melissa, you summed it up pretty well there. President Trump doubling down on tariffs in the Oval Office this afternoon saying he's going to go ahead with those reciprocal duties on April 2. Here's what he told reporters.
- [12:28]
Dan Nathan
We've been ripped off for years and we're not going to be ripped off anymore.
- [12:32]
Chris Verone
No, I'm not going to bend at all. Aluminum or steel or cars, we're not going to bend.
- [12:39]
Eamon Javers
Meanwhile, no comment from Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick here ahead of his meeting this afternoon with a Canadian delegation that includes Ontario Premier Doug Ford at the Commerce Department. We believe that meeting is ongoing. Now. We're learning about a couple of high profile CEOs in the meantime who've been here as well. Although they're not on the official White House schedule, both GM CEO Mary Barra and Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg met with President Trump here at the White House yesterday. But the White House is not releasing any details of those closed door conversations. So we don't know exactly what they discussed. But, you know, we can imagine. Melissa, back over to you.
- [13:16]
Melissa Lee
Eamon, thank you. Eamon Javers, interesting that Mark Zuckerberg went to the White House. What do you think?
- [13:22]
Karen Feinerman
Again?
- [13:23]
Melissa Lee
Again, yes. And Mary Barra, Yes.
- [13:25]
Karen Feinerman
I mean, well, they have sort of he does not have the supply chain issues that he does. And the tariff situation could not be more complex, I think. But I mean, they both want to need to curry favor with the president.
- [13:37]
Melissa Lee
For more on tariffs and the impact on retail stocks, let's bring in Laura Champagne, senior consumer analyst at Loop Capital Markets. Laura, great to see you.
- [13:46]
Laura Champine
Thanks for having me.
- [13:48]
Melissa Lee
Wondering, you know, you've probably heard a lot of our conversation. Where do you think the consumer is right now in terms of digesting the uncertainty in the macro early?
- [13:57]
Laura Champine
So I think that they're as confused as those of us who watch markets, if not more so. And we know that inflation, the numbers were a little bit better this week, but could get a lot worse. I would expect kind of an ugly consumer confidence number. The movements in the markets do make some sense for some companies, but I would be looking for opportunities in consumer discretionary stocks because we do think that at some point we get clarity on tariff policies and American companies can adjust.
- [14:27]
Melissa Lee
So you like a name like a Costco and a BJ's. And they have a very strong consumer. They have the ability to weather the storm in terms of changing their product mix up. They've got more limited exposure probably than a lot of other retailers to imported products stocks that are actually subject to tariffs. You said the consumers early in terms of digesting the uncertainty, where are the stocks?
- [14:48]
Laura Champine
Right. So many of these stocks have pulled Back a lot. Some of them 15% in a couple of days over the past week or so. Costco at Costco and BJ's make most of their income from the membership fees. So risks around earnings are really low compared to other retailers which is part of why Costco has healthy multiples. You get a pullback in Costco makes sense to step in and that's just been a great stock over the years. And a nervous consumer spends more at those warehouse clubs more in like off price tjx, Burlington Ross and some of the troubles that mainline full price retailers have these off pricers won't really have.
- [15:30]
Karen Feinerman
So Laura, it's Karen. Thanks for being on. Just reading some of your notes. You upgraded Royal Caribbean so we've been seeing you know travel just really getting hit hard. Tell us about that.
- [15:39]
Laura Champine
You know that's, that's a little bit of an edgy call and it's a potential to take advantage of a dip in the stock because the cruise lines are Pre booked into 2026. We had another one of our buy rated cruise line companies Viking reported earlier this week they're 88% booked for the whole year and they've seen very good pricing trends. Royal Caribbean has a nice set of new ships launching big ships. The cruise lines are at a significant similar to Costco and TJ Max. They have a pricing umbrella by land vacations where they're 25 to 50% cheaper than taking your kids to Disney World for example. So we think they're going to win share of wallet too and we would see that as kind of an maybe not as visible but still a value play for consumer dollars.
- [16:29]
Dan Nathan
Lauren February of 21 Whirlpool made an all time high north of 2 forties. We're sitting here today it's probably 65% off that but I think you find it interesting here. Can you speak to that?
- [16:40]
Laura Champine
You're absolutely right. If you want to play US manufacturer with 30% market share. And look they make their components in the US they are very well positioned. We had lows at our conference earlier this week and appliances are still on a downswing. They're in their worst decline in 40 years which is good timing historically to buy the stock of a company like Whirlpool that tariffs may actually help in addition to I would expect as their plants are reaching higher levels of productivity and utilization. Earnings are spring that that we think is ready to show massive growth once demand comes back as it will if the Fed stays in an accommodative stance.
- [17:24]
Melissa Lee
How do you look across the landscape lower and think about the consumer that's best able to weather the storm. If you do look at it that way, I mean you think the Costco consumer is best able to weather the storm and yet they're indicating that consumers are being very mindful about what they buy and they're making some trade down choices. So what are you looking for?
- [17:44]
Laura Champine
So they're indicating that but they're still showing a comp in the US that's 8 to 10% a little bit higher in international markets. They're taking share. One thing that Royal Caribbean and Costco have in common is a household income between $120,000 and $130,000. So as much as people with six figure incomes may complain about things like egg prices, coffee prices and so forth growth, most people in that income bracket can afford to keep spending. They'll look for value options though, which we think positions both of those companies really well.
- [18:16]
Karen Feinerman
Laura, it's Karen again. One last question is what is the most important metric that you look at to gauge how likely the consumer is to spend? Is it employment or is it something else?
- [18:26]
Laura Champine
Employment, Consumer discretionary income is a really key one. If we're looking really short term consumer confidence is a directional help and that will not play we don't think in our favor tomorrow. And we think that's a buying opportunity because most of us are trying to discount what's happened six months out from now. And we would expect certainly more stability than we've got today then for the housing related names. Home prices have historically been a great indicator. We need more supply to start pushing that. We're watching home turnover closer than ever. Home turnover, we've been getting some mixed signals but they're at such lows that we think as we see home turnover improve, companies that make appliances like Whirlpool, flooring like Mohawk, even mattresses like used to be Tempur Sealy, now Somni Group. Let's look at some domestic manufacturers. We think there's a real opportunity to get those at cheap multiples right now.
- [19:20]
Melissa Lee
Laura, great to see you. Thanks for joining us tonight. Laura Champine of Loop. Chris, Laura mentioned some stocks we didn't talk about yet. What do the charts look like for BJ's or Mohawk or Whirlpool?
- [19:32]
Chris Verone
Yeah, well actually I think the most compelling names from a technical standpoint that you mentioned are these cruises. I mean Carnival and Royal are both great long term uptrends that have been thrown out here with everything as oil prices have come down. So you Know you have Carnival basically back to where it broke out from, which was 20 bucks maybe two or three months ago, I think very, very timely there. And on the housing side, pay attention to Dr. Horton here. It was kind of first into this correction. It peaked last summer, it's down 40%. That's generally been kind of what the corrections in the homebuilders have been. So it's the housing and the cruises I think are probably most timely.
- [20:05]
Dan Nathan
Royal Caribbean, I mean put up a chart. It has moved lower but in the context of things it's barely budged off an all time high off a parabolic move that if you didn't know what this was, you would swear it's a biotalk, a biotech stock or an AI stock stock. And it's not. So you know, maybe it's interesting but at a certain point you start to see the consumer roll. These will roll as well.
- [20:25]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, we'll have much more in today's market sell off including some beaten down names that could be buying opportunities and a technical take to boot. The pharma stocks bucking today's drop and the next move for gold as its record rally keeps shining. But first, JP Morgan's not so hot. Straight shares are lower for six straight days. What is behind the bank's decline and how are traders handling the movement? Plus intel still riding its new CEO high as investors hope for a major turnaround in the name what the new chief can bring to the table and whether the company can return to its former glory in the semi space. Don't go anywhere. Fast money's back into.
- [21:01]
Guy Adami
This is Fast Money with Melissa Lee right here on cnbc.
- [21:12]
Laura Champine
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- [21:35]
Melissa Lee
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Melissa Lee
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- [22:07]
Melissa Lee
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- [22:18]
Karen Feinerman
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- [22:28]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. JP Morgan falling more than a percent for the stock. Sixth straight down day now trading at levels last seen since November. The big bank underperforming its Money center peer so far this week shedding 7%. The Morgan Stanley, Goldman and Bank of America Wells Fargo too, all on pace to finish the week in negative territory. What's up with jpm, Karen?
- [22:48]
Karen Feinerman
You know, just in the sea of red of financial companies. But I like JP Morgan. Yesterday I bought some call spreads for in May so that will get we'll see next quarter's earnings in front of that. Today would have been a better day to buy them but you know, I think it's just getting too beaten up. We know what the bear case is that all right, what if the economy slows? What if credit turns I don't see credit turning dramatically yet. The stock has moved dramatically. And I think that we know that M and A will be lower than we had thought. However, we do also think regulations will be lower that so they're extremely well capitalized so there could be growth there. And I think, I think there's a lot of other parts of the business that are good and that we'll still continue to see growth. So I'm comfortable being long here. Could it go lower? Of course. But I wanted to add I'm right.
- [23:39]
Chris Verone
There on the charts to Karen and you know we like to play blackjack by the books as they say. And part of that is buying oversold conditions and uptrends and JP Morgan is certainly kind of in that category in the 220 to 25 range. Wells Fargo actually not making a new low today I thought was interesting. We own that in our etf samm. I want to be adding to these as they get oversold in these uptrends. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley check that box as well. Remember financials entered this correction as a leader. It doesn't make them immune to weakness. But I'd rather kind of anticipate what the leadership on the other side by telling me what was strong is going in.
- [24:14]
Dan Nathan
We learned this week I learned a few things. Blackjack by the rules means by the by the books meaning you don't, don't do it on gut right. Don't sit there with a 16 and think you're going to get a five.
- [24:26]
Guy Adami
If the dealer scouts you hit on two versus a six. That's one that is not by the book. I mean a lot of.
- [24:33]
Dan Nathan
And then his thing, his own goal thing the other day.
- [24:36]
Melissa Lee
Oh yeah, people like that.
- [24:38]
Guy Adami
Actually we heard about that.
- [24:39]
Melissa Lee
Full of information. This show really.
- [24:40]
Guy Adami
Guy had a bit of a rant. Oh he went off on soccer and I was.
- [24:46]
Dan Nathan
You have a trade on the back of this guy? Actually I do. Melissa. So it was May of last year when Jamie Dimon, I don't know if he was prompted or he sort of said this extemporaneously but at 203 he was talking about his stock and he said, you know what, we're not buying back stock here, it's expensive. I think he was talking about price to book. I don't know exactly what. But that was a short term top. There's a chance we sort of revisit that level. That's where I think you get level.
- [25:09]
Melissa Lee
On two or three jpm, what is the price to book now? Like one point?
- [25:12]
Karen Feinerman
Well, book probably where we are in the quarter, it's probably a little north of 100, maybe one to one. So 2.2 something.
- [25:19]
Guy Adami
Question for Chris. So you said you like long term uptrends where things get overdone if they can pull up this, you know, on a five year basis. I mean if you look at from the 2023, I don't know, fourth quarter. Right. It kind of broke that uptrend. Right. So then the next little bundle of support is like 200 bucks. And so the only thing that's interesting about this, I would expect this one to kind of overshoot to the downside a little bit. Not because it's the best bank in the world, because it was like a safety trade, not too different than Wal Mart, that sort of thing. And you know we're seeing that in Apple now, people coming out of that really quickly.
- [25:50]
Chris Verone
So Dan, I make two points. I say number one, we can put lines on a chart or we can look at slopes of moving averages and I kind of lean more towards the latter. The 200 moving average on JP Morgan along with Goldman Wells Fargo, decidedly upward sloping. So I still think he gets the benefit of the doubt as an uptrend. The second thing that we actually looked at today we said is the weakness in financials in this correction. Has it been disproportionate for what you would expect with the S and P down 10? And in fact it's been quite the opposite historically when the S and p is down 10 you would actually expect banks to be down like 20. And the fact that they're not. I actually think is a pretty good sign here.
- [26:23]
Melissa Lee
Apparently it is Jamie Dimon's birthday today.
- [26:25]
Dan Nathan
No, stop it.
- [26:26]
Melissa Lee
Happy birthday, Jamie Dimon. If you're watching and we know that you do watch sometimes to time because you're a huge fan of the show and in particular of Karen Feinerman. Happy 69th, Karen.
- [26:36]
Dan Nathan
Got you a grapefruit.
- [26:39]
Karen Feinerman
Happy birthday. Come here. You're watching.
- [26:42]
Melissa Lee
There's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.
- [26:47]
Chris Verone
Critical intel, the chip maker bucking the broader semi sell off after announcing its new CEO. Why investors are so fired up about the leadership change and what it means for the stocks recently and struggles plus grading the charts. The traders may be finding opportunities in some beaten down names.
- [27:04]
Guy Adami
But what do the technicals say?
- [27:06]
Chris Verone
You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.
- [27:18]
Capella University Representative
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- [27:34]
Guy Adami
Find YOUR HUSTLE CNBC make it's new online course how to start a side hustle.
- [27:39]
Chris Verone
Three industry experts break down proven paths to success. Get out there and do it. Go to cnbcmakeit.com Sidehustle special offer ends April 1st.
- [27:51]
Melissa Lee
A quick programming note. The next Fast Money Live event is coming up on June 5th in this turbulent and unsettled market. Come join us for this unique in person experience here at the Nasdaq. It's a chance to connect with the Fast Money traders, ask questions, get their perspectives on how to navigate your investments in these uncertain times. You watch the show here at the nasdaq, be part of an in depth Q and A session with the traders. Then you can have a cocktail to share what's on your mind. So register for the next event. Fast money live June 5th. Scan the QR code on your screen or go to CNBC events.com fastmoney.
- [28:24]
Dan Nathan
Turbulent markets come and go, but we will remain here. And you need levity every once in a while. So you know what you need. A levity will rise tomorrow and this will be people had a ball a couple weeks ago.
- [28:35]
Melissa Lee
That is.
- [28:38]
Guy Adami
A ton of smart questions too. It's usually us like screaming or just me screaming at the camera, but we got to hear a lot of stuff back.
- [28:46]
Melissa Lee
Yep, yep. So we look forward to it. So do go get your ticket right now. Moving on, intel soaring over 14% after announcing Lip Bhutan will take the reins as CEO next week. The semi industry veteran now tasked with a major overhaul of the company's strategy. With shares still down 45% in the last year. But get this. Intel seeing its best two day gain since April 2021 and now the best performer, 2001, I should say best two day gain since 2001 and is the best performer in the VanEck semiconductor ETF so far this year. Has the chart made a real turnaround? Chris, in your view?
- [29:22]
Chris Verone
I'm not there yet.
- [29:23]
Melissa Lee
Analysts aren't there either.
- [29:25]
Chris Verone
It's possible, right? I know, I don't know. But these things after pervasive bear markets take time to base and base and base. I'm okay with the idea that maybe the low is in, but if we're going to identify this as a leader, I think it's going to take more time to improve itself.
- [29:40]
Karen Feinerman
So we always say we have a new CEO and you got to look for a kitchen sink quarter, right? This could be one of the great kitchen sinks of all time. And that might be sort of like remember when Boeing finally said, all right, we are going to do a gigantic capital raise that was the bottom of hopefully of a very long.
- [29:59]
Melissa Lee
But I'm glad you brought up Boeing though because so many times we've said or analysts have said we think the bottom is in. We think and it wasn't. It just kept going down. I mean there's no way to gauge a turnaround that is probably years in the making as opposed to quarters in the making.
- [30:14]
Dan Nathan
But, but the question I think, is this the right person to put that. So I would say if you bought Starbucks because of Brian Niccol, I think it's almost the same type of trade. I mean, deep rooted problems, maybe Starbucks a little easier fixable than intel, but this is a person I think is extraordinarily well equipped to do it. I think you buy intel here, despite.
- [30:33]
Melissa Lee
The move today, easier to make a new latte as opposed to an AI chip.
- [30:36]
Guy Adami
Well, Gelsinger, there was a. Yeah, Gelsinger had similar enthusiasm. I mean about him, he was a turnaround guy and you know, has deep ties in the tech business. I, I think it's uninspiring. I mean, I know he did it amazing.
- [30:52]
Melissa Lee
He quit because of Pat Gelsinger.
- [30:54]
Guy Adami
I know, but my point is, and I heard something, it was like he doesn't actually have a huge strategy change and think about like the move into fabs and then they're going to be out of fabs. And they don't have the product and who knows, I'm sure it's been in mass massive brain drain from there over the last few years. Analysts hate this stock though. It's only 4 buys, 40 holds and 5 sells. So at some point if they get anything right after a kitchen sink it's going to go higher.
- [31:19]
Melissa Lee
Two of the cells went higher today. Two neutrals not exactly pound the table but there is a lot of skepticism just like you have Chris. Yeah around the stock up, coming up. Stocks getting hit once again today. But the drop could be setting up attractive entry points in some names where our trader are buying and what Chris Verrone is seeing in the technicals for those charts. Fast Money's back into. Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks continuing their decline as President Trump doubles down on his tariff plans. The Dow falling more than 500 points. The S&P down 1.1.4% of the tech heavy. NASDAQ leading the losses down nearly 2%. Transport stocks continuing their drop. Old Dominion at its lowest level since June of 2023. CSX at two year lows, JB Hunt at four year lows and FedEx trading near its 52 week low as well. Some after hours action. Ulta DocuSign, Rubrik, PagerDuty all higher after beating top and bottom line expectations. Meantime with the S and P trading on more than six month lows, we wondered if the traders are finding any opportunities out there. And the beaten down stocks we'll kick it off with Mr. Silver Linings. Dan, what are you looking at?
- [32:40]
Guy Adami
So BlackRock's really interesting to me here. So largest asset manager in the world. It ended 2024 with like $12 trillion of assets under management. That's probably a third of the US investable stock market, that sort of thing. And you know I went back and looked in 2022 when we're in the last bear market that we had, the stock sold off 48% almost got cut in half which is not what you would have expected from a company like this. So here we are now, I think it's down like 15 17% or so. And I would just say this would be vulnerable if we went into a bear market that looked like 2022.
- [33:10]
Melissa Lee
What do you think of the chart Chris?
- [33:11]
Chris Verone
So I think it's actually by here you know we've had a very good correction in what is a decent long term uptrend. You may not know this. BlackRock actually has the highest correlation to the S and P itself of any stock in the S and P. So so goes blackrock really so goes the market and it's funny 5, 6 weeks ago this was one of the reasons why we actually got nervous on the market because the asset managers were correcting and typically they'll, they'll break first market will follow. But I think we've had our correction here. Call it 900 support maybe 850 worst case I'm a buyer there.
- [33:37]
Melissa Lee
All right Karen, what are you looking at?
- [33:39]
Karen Feinerman
So what I'm looking at my biggest position meta I had put some collars on before not at the top but higher than here and I thought you know what I'm going to take them off and so that's basically getting longer. So if you sell the put cover the call so I'm getting longer here. I think that in the low 20s that the multiple that doesn't mean discount the cash that I think their business is still very strong and imagine if we get into a scenario where they do cut capex those dollars go right to the bottom line that could be a big boost but I don't think that's the best case scenario actually I think more growth is better but the risk word to me is compelling.
- [34:15]
Melissa Lee
Chris, what does the chart look like?
- [34:16]
Chris Verone
I'm there as well. I think 5590 is where I'm going to step in and buy the stock. Maybe close 590 and change today somewhere in that ballpark mark maybe 580 on the downside but long term uptrend I think it should be bought as it gets oversold here.
- [34:28]
Karen Feinerman
I hope you're right.
- [34:29]
Chris Verone
Me too guy.
- [34:31]
Dan Nathan
Well it's going to be two out of three with Chris because he's going.
- [34:33]
Melissa Lee
To hate this next one is well.
- [34:35]
Dan Nathan
We talked about it last night I said if Target gets down to 100 for the October 2023 low you got to take a shot. I was hoping you'd get more volume today. You did is about 7 million shares typically trades 5 but you know this stock is now 60 something percent off its prior all time high which is astounding given what the tape has done. It is a really mismanaged company but if they can just sort of turn the needle and get something right for a trade. I think Target is interesting right here.
- [34:59]
Melissa Lee
Do you think Brian Cornell is on thin ice up for the challenge?
- [35:04]
Dan Nathan
Well I mean it hasn't been I mean look, look at where Target made its all time high quite frankly over the last few years it's been one of the worst run retailers out there. I'm sure he tells A lovely story. And I'm sure he has, you know, great things in the office. You know, good, nice little things on behind the desk, little trophies like endurance.
- [35:22]
Karen Feinerman
And you know, that kind of thing.
- [35:24]
Dan Nathan
With that said, I mean it hasn't been a great run over the last few years.
- [35:27]
Melissa Lee
All right, Chris, what do you think of Target?
- [35:28]
Chris Verone
I don't love the mentality guy of trade because I think forward trade should not be our goal here. Our goal should be let's find up trends and own them and own them for a long time. That said, for a trade, don't overstay your welcome past maybe 1:20. It could probably. It's massively oversold. It could certainly bounce. 120. Take your money and run.
- [35:47]
Melissa Lee
What is the question? Oh, yeah, yeah, please.
- [35:50]
Karen Feinerman
I feel like a stock this close to 100 will go to 100 or lower. Yeah, that, you know, we're one of pulled there.
- [35:58]
Chris Verone
There is a gravitational force in the universe that brings stocks to round numbers for whatever reason. Karen, as you certainly know, we're within 3% of 100 bucks. Expect some type of a bounce. There it is, is I think the RSI is 19 right now. We're massively oversold. Expect a bounce.
- [36:13]
Melissa Lee
We didn't ask you for your pick, but what would your pick be if you just picked a stock that you thought looked really great?
- [36:20]
Chris Verone
I think if you're trying to identify names in long term upturns that are flushed here, you have a lot of financials to choose from. Whether it's Goldman, whether it's Wells Fargo, whether it's JP Morgan. That's where I am there.
- [36:30]
Melissa Lee
All right, coming up, a few bright spots in today's sell off. The farmer names bucking the trend and whether these green arrows can keep going. That's next. Plus Gold's rally shining bright. But could there be a near term sentiment setback in store? But Chris is seeing the technicals when fast money returns. Let's get to Megan Casella who's outside the Commerce Department. We'll get to her in just a few minutes. Remember that the Ontario delegation is meeting with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick right now. So that meeting has just disbanded. So we'll get to that meeting as soon as we have her. Meantime, the health care trade may be catching a cold from the rest of the market. The sector falling sharply this week and now below both its 50 and 200 day moving averages. But a couple pharma stocks bucking today sell off Merck up a percent and a half and Bristol Myers up nearly a percent itself. So, Guy, what do you think of these names?
- [37:29]
Dan Nathan
I think Bristol Myers. We've been talking about the potential for a breakout. It's happening. If you put up a chart, I mean, I think Chris would agree. This actually looks good for the first time in a long time. And I think Merck is just a function of got down to 84. I think oversold condition off that prior 130 high we saw at one point last year. I think it's bouncing because there's money flows into big cap pharma, ex Lilly, ex novo. So I like Bristol here.
- [37:51]
Melissa Lee
All right, Doug Ford, the Premier of Ontario, is just speaking outside the Commerce Department. Let's listen in.
- [37:57]
Empower Representative
Thank you so much. We had a very, very productive meeting. Obviously a very long one, too. We know that we're very close partners for many, many years. We want to make sure we continue building on that relationship. We feel that the temperature is being lowered. That's. We feel the temperature is being lowered. And we've also agreed that we're going to have another meeting next week. And I think it's going to be very productive as well. We want the best outcome for both countries. We're part. We're like a family sometimes there's tension between families. But that was an extremely productive meeting and I just want to thank.
- [38:46]
Chris Verone
You.
- [38:46]
Empower Representative
Know, the secretary for the opportunity, opportunity to go in there and stay this long and, and communicate. We shared a tremendous amount of views back and forth and I'm, I'm feeling very positive and I just look forward to reaching out again next week. But this, I can honestly say was the best meeting I've ever had coming down here.
- [39:10]
J
Why do you say that?
- [39:10]
Melissa Lee
Why?
- [39:11]
Empower Representative
Well, because I, I feel we. And I keep saying we. We feel like the temperatures come down. I'm not commenting on their behalf. We also know we're an extremely important trading partner, I'd say top tier in the world to the United States and how we can continue working together to support each other. And I know it's still going to be moving forward and, and we'll get there, but there's always be bumps in the road. But it was very, very productive.
- [39:46]
J
Did you build any tariffs?
- [39:48]
Karen Feinerman
Everything is still on, right?
- [39:50]
Chris Verone
I'm sorry, nothing has been stopped.
- [39:52]
Karen Feinerman
There's still.
- [39:52]
Empower Representative
No, no, but it was very. Yeah, I don't call them the threats. We're having very productive conversations and it turned out very, very well. And I just look forward to again continue communicating next week. You got a lot on the table back and forth, but was very, very good. Very civil, very going back and forth. So I just appreciate the opportunity and I'm grateful that we're able to do this rather than going back and forth, you know, tit for tat.
- [40:24]
Capella University Representative
Premier, how do you take Commerce Secretary Lutnick at his word when he says something very different to his American audience when he appears on First Fox News Once again, he mocked Canada. He mocked you. He said that Donald Trump taught you a lesson and that's why you backed down. How do you deal with that type of tone when it's coming from the.
- [40:43]
Empower Representative
U.S. well, I can't comment on Secretary Lutnick, what he says. All I know, first time we had an opportunity to sit right across from the table from him, look him square in the eyes and had a great conversation. It was very positive. That's what I can tell you. It was very, very positive on both sides of the table there.
- [41:07]
J
Do you think you could reach a deal by April?
- [41:08]
Melissa Lee
That was Ontario Premier Doug Ford just stepping out of a meeting with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick saying the temperature has come down considerably. Let's get to Megan Casella right now for some more details on what happened in that meeting. What do we know at this point, Megan, about the state of tariffs or possibly a new USMCA agreement?
- [41:27]
J
Melissa, you heard the details right there, but they said there are no tariffs being removed as a result of this meeting. So no tangible movement there. But the premier there was very positive. He said the tone was very good there. And from talking with folks before this, that was sort of the best that Canada was hoping for at this point. When they spoke with Secretary Lutnick, they were hoping to at least move forward. They were looking for a better sense of what the United States was looking for. And the premier said there that he was glad to at least have a chance to sit down with the US Delegation and not have to go back and forth tit for tat with tariffs, but instead to have a fuller conversation about it. He also said there would be a meeting next week. And you heard there I was trying to ask him whether the Canadian delegation thought they might be able to strike a deal to keep any further tariffs from going on, taking effect on April 2. We couldn't get an answer to that question. But we know it was not just Ford in that meeting. It was also the finance minister, LeBlanc and some others from the Canadian delegation as well. So forward movement will have to wait to hear the readout from the US Side on if they feel quite as positive.
- [42:24]
Melissa Lee
All right, Megan, thank you. Megan Casella Coming up, gold's rally continuing to shine as the safe haven surges amid the sell off. But could a pullback be coming for the yellow metal? We'll go into the charts to find out. More fast money in two. Welcome back to fast money. Precious metals shining bright. Another down day in the markets. Gold price prices hitting a fresh intraday all time high. Hitting the key 3000 level for the first time earlier this hour that we've given up that level since. Miners riding the rally up 3%. Silver hitting its highest level since October on pace for its seventh positive week in eight. For more on what is next for the precious metal trade, let's go off the charts with Chris.
- [43:05]
Chris Verone
Yeah, certainly a big move in gold. It did feel a little panicky today in gold up. I wonder if that was just a reflection of what we're seeing elsewhere in the market. It we have liked it long. We still like it long. The only thing I want to be a little bit mindful of is some of the sentiment work is getting pretty aggressive. Our own survey work on gold is in like the 95th. It's getting very, very hot. What we've seen is the put call data in gold. A lot of call buying in GLD and also what we've seen in the cftc. The hedge funds are very long. So I just want to be a little bit mindful in the near term that maybe the sentiment picks picture is too hot. Focus on silver here. It's I think more timely. It's starting to come out of this big base up through 35 probably goes to 40, 42.
- [43:48]
Karen Feinerman
I've never gotten gold but I just want to say guy has gotten it for so long and it seems so right, so wrong for so long on this. So good for you guys.
- [43:56]
Dan Nathan
Thanks Karen. But look, go ahead.
- [43:57]
Melissa Lee
What, what Chris is saying sounds like panic to the upside. The other day you said we have to be mindful of panic both ways.
- [44:03]
Dan Nathan
And I would agree that he's seeing that more and more people talking about it without question. But it doesn't mean they're wrong, wrong, right. It means that now people are finally realizing what's going on and central banks continue to be the buyer of last resort here. So we've seen pullbacks before. We talked about the other day. Tim made fun of me the other day about some of these sell offs but they are short lived and I think gold continues to go higher from here.
- [44:23]
Melissa Lee
Mel, just as an addendum, Chris, how does bitcoin look?
- [44:26]
Chris Verone
This is a very big area here. 70 to 80k I just think for the integrity of risk assets, it's important. Bitcoin holds here. I mean this has been the hood ornament of risk appetite and liquidity for this entire cycle. Important this holds here.
- [44:39]
Melissa Lee
All right, up next, final trades. More breaking news here. Punch bowl reporting Democrats there are enough votes for cloture on the House passed continuing resolution that would keep the government open avoiding a shutdown. Again, that's according to Punchbowl. Time for the final trade. Let's go around the horn.
- [45:12]
Chris Verone
Chris we think the silver can break out SLV at etf.
- [45:16]
Karen Feinerman
Karen as we discussed before, I like JP Morgan call spreads or stock and.
- [45:20]
Melissa Lee
Happy Birthday Jamie and definitely Happy Birthday Dan.
- [45:23]
Guy Adami
That is a silver lining. Guy I like his silver nice but you can play Guy's target for bounce. If it's wrong, just blame him.
- [45:29]
Dan Nathan
Guy Happy Birthday Jamie. Do the right thing.
- [45:34]
Melissa Lee
Bad money starts right now.
- [45:38]
Capella University Representative
All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer@ Capella University, learning the right skills could make a difference. That's why our business programs teach you relevant skills you can take from the courseroom to the workplace. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at Capella. Eduardo.