CNBC Fast Money — Episode Summary

Episode Air Date: November 4, 2025
Main Theme:
This episode dives into a confounding market moment: both high-flying "risk-on" assets (like crypto) and traditionally defensive sectors (consumer staples, telecoms) are simultaneously under pressure. The desk takes stock of market breadth, sentiment, and macro risks heading into year-end, analyzes massive moves in stocks like Amazon and Palantir, and sits down with notable CEOs from Insmed and Better.com, who share first-hand insights into biotech innovation and AI-powered disruption in housing finance.

Market Turmoil: When Risk-On and Risk-Off Both Fall (01:04–07:58)
Starbucks’ China Joint Venture: Opportunity or Warning Sign? (08:12–11:42)
Investor Sentiment & the Contrarian Bull (11:42–16:56)
Deep Dive: Mega Cap Strength, Market Breadth, and AI Bubble Talk (17:02–18:47)
Amazon’s OpenAI Cloud Deal: Catch-Up Trade or Last-In? (18:12–20:27)
Palantir’s Q3: AI Growth, Valuation Worries, and a CEO Perspective (22:33–27:26)
Insmed CEO Will Lewis: Inside a Biotech Surge (31:06–37:40)
AI Comes to Housing: CEO Vishal Garg of Better.com (39:02–43:17)
Telecom and Staples: Fading Defensives (43:20–45:28)
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

1. Market Turmoil: When Risk-On and Risk-Off Both Fall

Main Points (01:04–07:58):

Melissa Lee: Opens noting an odd dynamic: both risk-on (crypto) and risk-off (staples, telcos) trades are faltering. Bitcoin is close to $105,000 but off its highs; staples like Kimberly Clark, Altria, Hershey, Hormel, and Cisco are at major lows.
Guy Adami (02:37): Points out the S&P 500 looks strong on the surface, but market breadth and VIX action suggest undercurrents of weakness:

"Despite the fact that those seven to ten names we talk about are doing very well, market breadth and other things suggest something otherwise."
Tim Seymour (03:22): Notes the Mag7 stocks and semiconductors are outperforming, but the equal-weighted S&P is down; a rising dollar complicates the outlook and challenges the weak-dollar consensus.
Steve Grasso (05:00): Emphasizes that higher rates are putting pressure on both staples and crypto.

"So what goes lower? Staples... What doesn't perform well with higher rates is bitcoin too. So there's a double reason why bitcoin doesn't perform well."
Dan Nathan (05:47): Argues relationships between bitcoin, rates, and earnings are morphing as the ETF-driven treasury strategies slow.

"It might work out great for Michael Saylor and Strategy. It might not work out that well for all these other companies."
Melissa Lee (07:58): Flags elevated leverage in crypto trades, which could contribute to abrupt unwinds.

2. Starbucks’ China Joint Venture: Opportunity or Warning Sign?

Details (08:12–11:42):

Breaking News: Starbucks forms a joint venture with Boyu Capital, transferring 60% control of its China business. Starbucks keeps 40% and licenses its brand/IP.
Kate Rogers: Reports Starbucks expects the value of its China business to exceed $13B. China business is improving (same-store sales up, traffic up 9%).
Melissa Lee: Confirms Boyu is Hong Kong-based.
Tim Seymour (09:47): Expresses skepticism; says this isn't necessarily a new positive, and that China is "no longer a growth spot."
Dan Nathan (10:51): Compares Starbucks' China difficulties to Tesla's, noting a tough landscape for US brands due to local competition and nationalistic factors.
Steve Grasso (11:24): Suggests this move might provide technical support for Starbucks stock, but acknowledges management challenges.

3. Investor Sentiment & the Contrarian Bull

Guest: Julian Emanuel, Evercore ISI (11:42–16:56):

Melissa Lee: Introduces a survey showing unprecedented bullishness among institutional clients.
Julian Emanuel (11:56):

"Going back to 2018, the 2nd highest reading… was 69%. Last week, it was 76%."
- Sees this as a contrarian warning, implying short-term caution.
- Enthusiastic about long-term prospects, especially due to AI-led earnings strength.
Tim Seymour (13:20): Questions whether lack of market breadth gives reason for worry.
Julian Emanuel: Notes that recent loss of breadth is worrisome and that a stronger dollar could trigger "pain trades."
On Fed Rate Cuts (14:43):

"For the market, [the risk is] if they didn't cut in December."
- Would rather see rate cut odds fall further, sparking more fear and creating a better buying opportunity.
On Tariffs (15:17):

"The market likes [tariffs]... Interest rate volatility is actually lower than equity volatility right now."
Short-term pullback? Expects any November/December dip to be moderate, setting up better entry points for 2026.

4. Deep Dive: Mega Cap Strength, Market Breadth, and AI Bubble Talk

Key Points (17:02–18:47):

Dan Nathan (17:14):

"There seems to be a bubble in calling a bubble in AI..."
- Market isn’t likely to correct as long as financials and industrials keep supporting the S&P.
- Palantir is cited as an example: options action shows more betting on upside than downside, reflecting optimistic psychology.

5. Amazon’s OpenAI Cloud Deal: Catch-Up Trade or Last-In?

Details (18:12–20:27):

Melissa Lee: Amazon surges after AWS announces a $38B, multi-year deal with OpenAI—seen as a crucial move since Amazon was the only big tech name without a deal.
Guy Adami (18:47):

"I didn't think the news today was that earth shattering... I think this move today extends [the rally]. I think it trades lower from here."
Tim Seymour (19:08): Counters that the deal validates AWS's data center investments and brings immediate competitive relevance.
Steve Grasso (19:52): Sees Amazon as a "catch up trade"; would buy here.
Dan Nathan (20:05): Notes OpenAI is "spraying this all around"—implying the AI arms race is both opportunity and risk for the sector.

6. Palantir’s Q3: AI Growth, Valuation Worries, and a CEO Perspective

Details (22:33–27:26):

Morgan Brennan:

"AI is driving the growth. U.S. is driving the AI adoption. Palantir's U.S. revenue grew 77% last quarter. U.S. commercial up 121%..." [23:00]
- CEO Alex Karp says:
  
  "The things that are valuable will remain valuable. The things that are not valuable are going to get flushed out. The strong companies are going to get much stronger and the people pretending they're doing stuff are going to disappear quickly." [23:38]
- Palantir is highly profitable by software standards but trades at an extremely high valuation.
Guy Adami (24:44):

"Here's the problem... It trades north of 90 times revenue, which historically we have never seen before."
Steve Grasso (25:14): Notes that much of PLTR’s business is government contracts—potentially a risk or a strategic moat.
Tim Seymour (26:17):

"The government story is well known in the stock. ...The valuation has not made sense for three years in Palantir. And it goes higher."
Dan Nathan (27:05): Warns that no software company can indefinitely "grow into" such a valuation, but acknowledges momentum is carrying it higher short term.

7. Insmed CEO Will Lewis: Inside a Biotech Surge

Interview (31:06–37:40):

Melissa Lee: Highlights that Insmed's stock is up ~170% YTD, pacing high-flyers like Palantir. Asks about strong launch of Brensupra (lung disease drug) and catalysts ahead (33:11).
Will Lewis (Insmed CEO, 32:40):

"The Brin Supra launch ... looks very, very strong. ... As many as 2,500 patients on drug, which is fantastic out of the gate. Q4 is the first full quarter, and so we really need to see that to know what the shape of the launch curve is going to be."
- Explains additional clinical/commercial catalysts; draft guidelines already recommend Brensupra.
- Pipeline could expand Insmed's addressable patients by nearly 10x by end of decade.
"For 200 years, no one has been able to develop a drug that could have an impact until we came along." [33:33]
- Next focus: phase II readout in Jan 2026 (Birch data), possible inroads into CRS without nasal polyps (~30M US patients).
- Details strong cash position ($1.7B) and plans for multiple phase III trials in 2026.
Guy Adami (37:44):

"To me ... this is this generation's Celgene in a lot of different ways. ... I think it's got a lot more to go."

8. AI Comes to Housing: CEO Vishal Garg of Better.com

Interview (39:02–43:17):

Melissa Lee: Notes mortgage rates are down; Better.com's shares up 700% YTD.
Vishal Garg (Better.com CEO):

“If you’ve got a 7.5% mortgage ... look for a refinance. ... At 6.2% on better.com, ... you can save $3,200 a year in interest. That’s pretty decent money...” [39:13]
- Better.com slashes costs by using AI ("Betsy") for mortgage processing; cost per loan is $3,000 vs. $12,000 at traditional lenders.
“Betsy’s ... trained on 12 million phone calls. ... She knows all the underwriting criteria ... she's open for business 24/7, 365.” [40:20]
- On competition: most mortgage firms use clunky legacy systems; Better.com is unique in building an end-to-end platform, allowing full AI deployment.
“Real AI is when you can ... deliver that back in savings to the consumer.” [43:17]

9. Telecom and Staples: Fading Defensives

Analysis (43:20–45:28):

Melissa Lee: Telecoms (T-Mobile, AT&T, Verizon) are down sharply; T-Mobile more than 25% off highs. Staples (tobacco, food) are also at 52-week lows.
Dan Nathan (43:53):

“The VIX was 18 this morning. You'd think these things are catching a bid ... it's saying something about there's no cares for ... yields these guys have, ... slow growth.”
Tim Seymour (44:19): Notes former outperformers like tobacco and staples are now laggards—barbell "defensive" strategies not working.
Steve Grasso (44:53):

“No one's buying a dividend payer but there's really no high growth name. It used to be T-Mobile ... seems pretty saturated right now.”
Guy Adami (45:12): Technical note: T-Mobile is at big support; could be a level for brave buyers.

10. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On market confusion:

"If both the risk on trade and the safety trades are moving in the same direction, what does that tell us about the state of the market?"
— Melissa Lee (01:52)
On AI stock euphoria:

"There seems to be a bubble in calling a bubble in AI..."
— Dan Nathan (17:14)
On market caution/sentiment:

"This level of bullishness ... is a bit of a contrary indicator."
— Julian Emanuel (11:56)
Palantir CEO on AI shakeout:

"The strong companies are going to get much stronger and the people pretending they're doing stuff are going to disappear quickly."
— Alex Karp, quoted by Morgan Brennan (23:38)
On the pace of biotech innovation:

"This is the first and only approved therapy for the treatment of bronchiectasis. ... For 200 years, no one has been able to develop a drug ... until we came along."
— Will Lewis, Insmed CEO (33:33)

Timestamps for Key Segments

Market breadth, risk-on/risk-off puzzle: 01:04–07:58
Starbucks China JV & China risk: 08:12–11:42
Evercore ISI’s Julian Emanuel (sentiment): 11:42–16:56
Amazon/OpenAI deal: 18:12–20:27
Palantir's earnings/valuation: 22:33–27:26
Insmed CEO Will Lewis: 31:06–37:40
Better.com CEO Vishal Garg: 39:02–43:17
Telecom/staples declining: 43:20–45:28

Summary Takeaways

The classic risk-on/risk-off market playbook is being upended: both ends are struggling due to macro crosscurrents (rates, dollar, AI euphoria).
Market breadth and excessive bullishness serve as warnings for possible near-term volatility, but secular trends (AI, biotech innovation) continue to drive outsized returns for select stocks.
High-profile CEO interviews (Insmed, Better.com) offer direct looks at how innovation is moving the needle even in volatile macro conditions.
Defensive stocks (staples, telecoms) are out of favor; the market’s backbone remains mega-cap tech and “story stocks” with momentum and killer narratives.

For listeners:
The episode is a must-listen if you want a street-level view of why this market feels especially “toppy” yet still ripe with pockets of explosive growth—plus rare direct access to C-suite leaders steering those biggest stories.

CNBC Fast Money — Episode Summary

Market Turmoil: When Risk-On and Risk-Off Both Fall (01:04–07:58)
Starbucks’ China Joint Venture: Opportunity or Warning Sign? (08:12–11:42)
Investor Sentiment & the Contrarian Bull (11:42–16:56)
Deep Dive: Mega Cap Strength, Market Breadth, and AI Bubble Talk (17:02–18:47)
Amazon’s OpenAI Cloud Deal: Catch-Up Trade or Last-In? (18:12–20:27)
Palantir’s Q3: AI Growth, Valuation Worries, and a CEO Perspective (22:33–27:26)
Insmed CEO Will Lewis: Inside a Biotech Surge (31:06–37:40)
AI Comes to Housing: CEO Vishal Garg of Better.com (39:02–43:17)
Telecom and Staples: Fading Defensives (43:20–45:28)
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

1. Market Turmoil: When Risk-On and Risk-Off Both Fall

Main Points (01:04–07:58):

Melissa Lee: Opens noting an odd dynamic: both risk-on (crypto) and risk-off (staples, telcos) trades are faltering. Bitcoin is close to $105,000 but off its highs; staples like Kimberly Clark, Altria, Hershey, Hormel, and Cisco are at major lows.
Guy Adami (02:37): Points out the S&P 500 looks strong on the surface, but market breadth and VIX action suggest undercurrents of weakness:

"Despite the fact that those seven to ten names we talk about are doing very well, market breadth and other things suggest something otherwise."
Tim Seymour (03:22): Notes the Mag7 stocks and semiconductors are outperforming, but the equal-weighted S&P is down; a rising dollar complicates the outlook and challenges the weak-dollar consensus.
Steve Grasso (05:00): Emphasizes that higher rates are putting pressure on both staples and crypto.

"So what goes lower? Staples... What doesn't perform well with higher rates is bitcoin too. So there's a double reason why bitcoin doesn't perform well."
Dan Nathan (05:47): Argues relationships between bitcoin, rates, and earnings are morphing as the ETF-driven treasury strategies slow.

"It might work out great for Michael Saylor and Strategy. It might not work out that well for all these other companies."
Melissa Lee (07:58): Flags elevated leverage in crypto trades, which could contribute to abrupt unwinds.

2. Starbucks’ China Joint Venture: Opportunity or Warning Sign?

Details (08:12–11:42):

Breaking News: Starbucks forms a joint venture with Boyu Capital, transferring 60% control of its China business. Starbucks keeps 40% and licenses its brand/IP.
Kate Rogers: Reports Starbucks expects the value of its China business to exceed $13B. China business is improving (same-store sales up, traffic up 9%).
Melissa Lee: Confirms Boyu is Hong Kong-based.
Tim Seymour (09:47): Expresses skepticism; says this isn't necessarily a new positive, and that China is "no longer a growth spot."
Dan Nathan (10:51): Compares Starbucks' China difficulties to Tesla's, noting a tough landscape for US brands due to local competition and nationalistic factors.
Steve Grasso (11:24): Suggests this move might provide technical support for Starbucks stock, but acknowledges management challenges.

3. Investor Sentiment & the Contrarian Bull

Guest: Julian Emanuel, Evercore ISI (11:42–16:56):

Melissa Lee: Introduces a survey showing unprecedented bullishness among institutional clients.
Julian Emanuel (11:56):

"Going back to 2018, the 2nd highest reading… was 69%. Last week, it was 76%."
- Sees this as a contrarian warning, implying short-term caution.
- Enthusiastic about long-term prospects, especially due to AI-led earnings strength.
Tim Seymour (13:20): Questions whether lack of market breadth gives reason for worry.
Julian Emanuel: Notes that recent loss of breadth is worrisome and that a stronger dollar could trigger "pain trades."
On Fed Rate Cuts (14:43):

"For the market, [the risk is] if they didn't cut in December."
- Would rather see rate cut odds fall further, sparking more fear and creating a better buying opportunity.
On Tariffs (15:17):

"The market likes [tariffs]... Interest rate volatility is actually lower than equity volatility right now."
Short-term pullback? Expects any November/December dip to be moderate, setting up better entry points for 2026.

4. Deep Dive: Mega Cap Strength, Market Breadth, and AI Bubble Talk

Key Points (17:02–18:47):

Dan Nathan (17:14):

"There seems to be a bubble in calling a bubble in AI..."
- Market isn’t likely to correct as long as financials and industrials keep supporting the S&P.
- Palantir is cited as an example: options action shows more betting on upside than downside, reflecting optimistic psychology.

5. Amazon’s OpenAI Cloud Deal: Catch-Up Trade or Last-In?

Details (18:12–20:27):

Melissa Lee: Amazon surges after AWS announces a $38B, multi-year deal with OpenAI—seen as a crucial move since Amazon was the only big tech name without a deal.
Guy Adami (18:47):

"I didn't think the news today was that earth shattering... I think this move today extends [the rally]. I think it trades lower from here."
Tim Seymour (19:08): Counters that the deal validates AWS's data center investments and brings immediate competitive relevance.
Steve Grasso (19:52): Sees Amazon as a "catch up trade"; would buy here.
Dan Nathan (20:05): Notes OpenAI is "spraying this all around"—implying the AI arms race is both opportunity and risk for the sector.

6. Palantir’s Q3: AI Growth, Valuation Worries, and a CEO Perspective

Details (22:33–27:26):

Morgan Brennan:

"AI is driving the growth. U.S. is driving the AI adoption. Palantir's U.S. revenue grew 77% last quarter. U.S. commercial up 121%..." [23:00]
- CEO Alex Karp says:
  
  "The things that are valuable will remain valuable. The things that are not valuable are going to get flushed out. The strong companies are going to get much stronger and the people pretending they're doing stuff are going to disappear quickly." [23:38]
- Palantir is highly profitable by software standards but trades at an extremely high valuation.
Guy Adami (24:44):

"Here's the problem... It trades north of 90 times revenue, which historically we have never seen before."
Steve Grasso (25:14): Notes that much of PLTR’s business is government contracts—potentially a risk or a strategic moat.
Tim Seymour (26:17):

"The government story is well known in the stock. ...The valuation has not made sense for three years in Palantir. And it goes higher."
Dan Nathan (27:05): Warns that no software company can indefinitely "grow into" such a valuation, but acknowledges momentum is carrying it higher short term.

7. Insmed CEO Will Lewis: Inside a Biotech Surge

Interview (31:06–37:40):

Melissa Lee: Highlights that Insmed's stock is up ~170% YTD, pacing high-flyers like Palantir. Asks about strong launch of Brensupra (lung disease drug) and catalysts ahead (33:11).
Will Lewis (Insmed CEO, 32:40):

"The Brin Supra launch ... looks very, very strong. ... As many as 2,500 patients on drug, which is fantastic out of the gate. Q4 is the first full quarter, and so we really need to see that to know what the shape of the launch curve is going to be."
- Explains additional clinical/commercial catalysts; draft guidelines already recommend Brensupra.
- Pipeline could expand Insmed's addressable patients by nearly 10x by end of decade.
"For 200 years, no one has been able to develop a drug that could have an impact until we came along." [33:33]
- Next focus: phase II readout in Jan 2026 (Birch data), possible inroads into CRS without nasal polyps (~30M US patients).
- Details strong cash position ($1.7B) and plans for multiple phase III trials in 2026.
Guy Adami (37:44):

"To me ... this is this generation's Celgene in a lot of different ways. ... I think it's got a lot more to go."

8. AI Comes to Housing: CEO Vishal Garg of Better.com

Interview (39:02–43:17):

Melissa Lee: Notes mortgage rates are down; Better.com's shares up 700% YTD.
Vishal Garg (Better.com CEO):

“If you’ve got a 7.5% mortgage ... look for a refinance. ... At 6.2% on better.com, ... you can save $3,200 a year in interest. That’s pretty decent money...” [39:13]
- Better.com slashes costs by using AI ("Betsy") for mortgage processing; cost per loan is $3,000 vs. $12,000 at traditional lenders.
“Betsy’s ... trained on 12 million phone calls. ... She knows all the underwriting criteria ... she's open for business 24/7, 365.” [40:20]
- On competition: most mortgage firms use clunky legacy systems; Better.com is unique in building an end-to-end platform, allowing full AI deployment.
“Real AI is when you can ... deliver that back in savings to the consumer.” [43:17]

9. Telecom and Staples: Fading Defensives

Analysis (43:20–45:28):

Melissa Lee: Telecoms (T-Mobile, AT&T, Verizon) are down sharply; T-Mobile more than 25% off highs. Staples (tobacco, food) are also at 52-week lows.
Dan Nathan (43:53):

“The VIX was 18 this morning. You'd think these things are catching a bid ... it's saying something about there's no cares for ... yields these guys have, ... slow growth.”
Tim Seymour (44:19): Notes former outperformers like tobacco and staples are now laggards—barbell "defensive" strategies not working.
Steve Grasso (44:53):

“No one's buying a dividend payer but there's really no high growth name. It used to be T-Mobile ... seems pretty saturated right now.”
Guy Adami (45:12): Technical note: T-Mobile is at big support; could be a level for brave buyers.

10. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On market confusion:

"If both the risk on trade and the safety trades are moving in the same direction, what does that tell us about the state of the market?"
— Melissa Lee (01:52)
On AI stock euphoria:

"There seems to be a bubble in calling a bubble in AI..."
— Dan Nathan (17:14)
On market caution/sentiment:

"This level of bullishness ... is a bit of a contrary indicator."
— Julian Emanuel (11:56)
Palantir CEO on AI shakeout:

"The strong companies are going to get much stronger and the people pretending they're doing stuff are going to disappear quickly."
— Alex Karp, quoted by Morgan Brennan (23:38)
On the pace of biotech innovation:

"This is the first and only approved therapy for the treatment of bronchiectasis. ... For 200 years, no one has been able to develop a drug ... until we came along."
— Will Lewis, Insmed CEO (33:33)

Timestamps for Key Segments

Market breadth, risk-on/risk-off puzzle: 01:04–07:58
Starbucks China JV & China risk: 08:12–11:42
Evercore ISI’s Julian Emanuel (sentiment): 11:42–16:56
Amazon/OpenAI deal: 18:12–20:27
Palantir's earnings/valuation: 22:33–27:26
Insmed CEO Will Lewis: 31:06–37:40
Better.com CEO Vishal Garg: 39:02–43:17
Telecom/staples declining: 43:20–45:28

Summary Takeaways

The classic risk-on/risk-off market playbook is being upended: both ends are struggling due to macro crosscurrents (rates, dollar, AI euphoria).
Market breadth and excessive bullishness serve as warnings for possible near-term volatility, but secular trends (AI, biotech innovation) continue to drive outsized returns for select stocks.
High-profile CEO interviews (Insmed, Better.com) offer direct looks at how innovation is moving the needle even in volatile macro conditions.
Defensive stocks (staples, telecoms) are out of favor; the market’s backbone remains mega-cap tech and “story stocks” with momentum and killer narratives.

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Summary

CNBC Fast Money — Episode Summary

Table of Contents

1. Market Turmoil: When Risk-On and Risk-Off Both Fall

2. Starbucks’ China Joint Venture: Opportunity or Warning Sign?

3. Investor Sentiment & the Contrarian Bull

4. Deep Dive: Mega Cap Strength, Market Breadth, and AI Bubble Talk

5. Amazon’s OpenAI Cloud Deal: Catch-Up Trade or Last-In?

6. Palantir’s Q3: AI Growth, Valuation Worries, and a CEO Perspective

7. Insmed CEO Will Lewis: Inside a Biotech Surge

8. AI Comes to Housing: CEO Vishal Garg of Better.com

9. Telecom and Staples: Fading Defensives

10. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Timestamps for Key Segments

Summary Takeaways

Summary

CNBC Fast Money — Episode Summary

Table of Contents

1. Market Turmoil: When Risk-On and Risk-Off Both Fall

2. Starbucks’ China Joint Venture: Opportunity or Warning Sign?

3. Investor Sentiment & the Contrarian Bull

4. Deep Dive: Mega Cap Strength, Market Breadth, and AI Bubble Talk

5. Amazon’s OpenAI Cloud Deal: Catch-Up Trade or Last-In?

6. Palantir’s Q3: AI Growth, Valuation Worries, and a CEO Perspective

7. Insmed CEO Will Lewis: Inside a Biotech Surge

8. AI Comes to Housing: CEO Vishal Garg of Better.com

9. Telecom and Staples: Fading Defensives

10. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Timestamps for Key Segments

Summary Takeaways