Software Sits Out Of The Rally… And Inflation Data Impact On Next Fed Decision 4/9/26

Summary

CNBC Fast Money - Episode Summary
"Software Sits Out Of The Rally… And Inflation Data Impact On Next Fed Decision"
Aired: April 9, 2026
Host: Brian Sullivan (in for Melissa Lee)
Panel: Tim Seymour, Karen Finerman, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into why the software sector is missing out on the current market rally, examining the growing fears around AI disruption, sector underperformance, and ETF dynamics. The hosts also break down the latest inflation data, examine gold's evolving role in global markets, discuss the impact of Mideast tensions on oil and currency markets, and analyze major moves by blue-chip firms like Intel, Amazon, and Disney. Actionable insights target investors navigating rapid sector rotations, macro shifts, and the upcoming Fed decision.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Software Sector: Left Behind in the Rally

Timestamps: 01:03–12:22

AI Disruption & Sentiment

• Dan Nathan: Argues that expectations of an “AI bubble” are hurting software stocks, especially in enterprise and application software. Investors fear new AI “agents” could decimate legacy software models (02:59).
  • Quote: “I just see how these [agents] are going to decimate a lot of these offerings… companies have not really projected or thought out… how they're going to be using this technology…” (03:18)
• Hard-Luck Sector: CrowdStrike, Cloudflare, Autodesk, ServiceNow, Okta, and GitLab cited among biggest decliners.
• ETF Impact: The IGV software ETF is underperforming the S&P 500 by 40% over the past year (02:59).

ETF Dynamics & Labor Market Link

• Guy Adami: Explains the downside of sector ETFs—good companies get dragged down with weak peers. Sees labor market weakness as a growing risk, especially for giants like Microsoft (04:15).
  • Quote: “The beauty of ETFs on the way up… the flip side of that coin is… well, as painful as is pleasurable” (04:15)

Valuation & Differentiation

• Tim Seymour: Believes cybersecurity, especially names like CrowdStrike, might still have strong AI-driven demand. Notes not all software is equal (05:23).
  • Quote: “It’s fascinating to own software as a group, not just in good times… there may be some opportunities with names that get thrown out.” (06:37)

Earnings & Capitulation Potential

• Dan Nathan: Suggests that software CEOs should consider guiding down for 2026 now, possibly setting the stage for capitulation and a more favorable setup (07:44).
  • Quote: “If I was the CEO of one of these companies, I’d… guide down and see what happens here.” (07:44)

Playbook for Investors

• Karen Finerman: Expects recovery to be slow, not a sharp turnaround, as threats to software models won’t vanish quickly (06:47).

Rotation Watch

• Dan Nathan: Warns that if big CapEx spenders (e.g., Amazon) cut back, semis and related stocks could face sharper rotations, possibly benefiting software on a relative basis (08:01).

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2. Gold's New Dynamic in a Geopolitical World

Timestamps: 13:42–19:45

Safe Haven or Not?

• Nikki Shields (MKS PAMP): Explains gold’s decline at war’s start was due to liquidation needs, not panic buying—a shift from past crises. Gold now trades more as a risk asset, following the S&P and inversely to the dollar (14:28).
  • Quote: “During war… gold became a high, high liquid asset in order to liquidate and sort of fulfill those needs.” (15:05)

Central Bank Dynamics

• Central bank buying is slowing; some EMs (Turkey) have sold to support currencies, but Eastern Europe and Asia still accumulating for de-dollarization (15:36).

Supply Constraints

• Supply response is slow; mines take 7+ years and investment has lagged. Current rally is unique because no “above-ground” stocks are being liquidated (16:32).

Crypto’s Role

• Karen Finerman: Asks if crypto has replaced gold. Shields says both are now complementary, each a form of de-dollarization asset in portfolios (17:07).

Price Outlook

• Shields expects gold could eventually rise $1,000/oz this year if risk-off sentiment re-emerges (17:56).

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3. War in the Middle East: Markets React

Timestamps: 12:25–13:42, 31:42–38:06

Ceasefire & Oil

• Israeli-Lebanon peace talk headlines triggered midday rally, but real uncertainty remains. Ongoing attacks could still upend the fragile truce (12:44).
• Oil prices up on tanker risk even after ceasefire headlines. The passage of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz is now the top metric for global market risk (33:34, 34:03).

Currency, Rates, and Correlation Shifts

• Jens Nordvig (Exante Data): Explains tight linkages between oil, the U.S. dollar, and equity risk sentiment are relaxing as ceasefire hopes grow. Watching for central banks like the ECB to potentially hike, creating diverging currency moves (36:47).

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4. Intel & Google Chip Partnership

Timestamps: 21:38–26:35

• Intel (7-day win streak, up 50% since Sept. 2023) announced a major new AI chip deal with Google. While details are scarce, it signals Google isn’t abandoning Intel amid custom chip and Nvidia competition (22:10).
• CEO Pat Gelsinger is slashing costs, selling non-core assets, and focusing on advanced chip manufacturing (‘18A’ process).
• Skepticism: Panel questions whether Intel can deliver on demand amid past manufacturing stumbles and high current valuation—trading at 61x next year’s earnings.
• Guy Adami: Calls current valuation “extraordinary,” emphasizes need for strong earnings update April 23rd (25:48).

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5. Amazon: AI, Cloud, and Healthcare Moves

Timestamps: 39:28–42:54

• CEO Andy Jassy says Amazon will “not be conservative in spending on AI” (39:29).
• AWS revenues at $15 billion/quarter, up 260x from earlier in its lifespan.
• Amazon rolling out Eli Lilly’s weight loss pill in clinic kiosks—signals healthcare ambitions.
• Panel lauds AWS's high margins (~35%) versus retail and notes growth outpacing Microsoft Azure for now (40:20, 41:18).
  • Karen Finerman: “[AWS] margins ... are 35 ish percent versus in retail mid single digits maybe.”
• AI, cloud, and chip investments viewed as the real drivers of Amazon’s future valuation (42:05).
• Stock seen as undervalued, with strong rally potential into earnings (42:37, 42:54).

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6. Disney Cost Cuts & Strategic Focus

Timestamps: 29:10–31:09

• New CEO Josh D’Amaro to lay off ~1,000, mostly in marketing.
  • Karen Finerman: “It’s better to just do it as deep as you’re going to… so the rest of the employees can say, now we’re not going to focus on that.” (29:39)
• Debate on whether Disney should dump media assets in favor of parks business, which now drives most earnings (30:14).
• Tim Seymour: Streaming business is improving but overall stock has been “dead money” for shareholders for 15 years.

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7. CFO Council Survey: Executive Sentiment

Timestamps: 42:54–45:53

• CNBC survey: 60% of CFOs see no significant move up or down for the Dow; only 12% forecast a new high, 16% see big declines.
• War and oil volatility expected to impact bottom lines for some, but most are holding targets for now.
• One-third of CFOs worry current earnings aren’t sustainable.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Dan Nathan: On AI disruption in software: “I just see how these [AI agents] are going to decimate a lot of these offerings… companies have not really projected or thought out… how they're going to be using this technology…” (03:18)
• Tim Seymour: On software ETFs: “It’s fascinating to own software as a group, not just in good times… there may be some opportunities with names that get thrown out.” (06:37)
• Nikki Shields: On gold as a crisis asset: “During war… gold became a high, high liquid asset in order to liquidate and sort of fulfill those needs.” (15:05)
• Brian Sullivan (Host): “For a couple of weeks now we’ve been showing that live chart... the Strait of Hormuz is right now the most important chart in the world for the stock market.” (34:03)
• Karen Finerman: On AWS vs. Amazon retail: “[AWS] margins ... are 35 ish percent versus in retail mid single digits maybe.” (41:18)
• Guy Adami: On Intel’s valuation: “It’s trading right now... almost 61 times next year’s numbers, which is extraordinary. They better say data center is better and things are getting better. Otherwise this valuation makes zero sense.” (25:48)

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Important Segment Timestamps

• [01:03–12:22] Software sector struggles, AI fears, ETF analysis, and earnings outlook
• [13:42–19:45] Gold, safe haven trade, central banks, supply, and crypto discussion
• [21:38–26:35] Intel-Google chip partnership, Intel turnaround analysis
• [29:10–31:09] Disney layoffs and business mix strategy
• [31:42–38:06] Oil, the Middle East, dollar moves, and central bank implications
• [39:28–42:54] Amazon’s AI, AWS, and healthcare moves
• [42:54–45:53] CFO survey: macro outlook, earnings risk, executive sentiment

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Closing: Final Trades

[46:30–47:13]

• Tim Seymour: Amazon seen as undervalued due to AI advances.
• Karen Finerman: Recommends volatility index call options anticipating bumpier roads.
• Dan Nathan: Sees the IGV software ETF as a near-term trading opportunity.

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For investors and market watchers, this episode is a must-listen for perspective on software’s new risks, AI sector rotations, gold’s evolving narrative, and how global events are redrawing macro and corporate strategy.

Transcript

[A]

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[B]

Live for the NASDAQ market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. Here's what's ahead. No ships in the strait. No problem. Market's up again. The S and P and Nasdaq both on seven day win streaks. The big themes to watch ahead. But one notable group sitting out today's rally. What is weighing on software again. We're going to dig in into a sector with some hard luck. Plus Intel's quiet run, Amazon CEO making the case for some big AI spend and a big booze maker popping on. Talk of a possible deal. Hi everybody. We all might be ready for an adult beverage very soon, if we're not already. I am Brian Sullivan in for Melissa Lee, live from Studio B at the nasdaq. And on your desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Feynman, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami. We've got another big hour ahead and we're going to bring you the news that sparked today's big midday turnaround in just a moment. But we're going to actually start somewhere else tonight with a group that got a ton of focus before the war began and is back in focus again. That is software. It was another slump for the group today on, you guessed it, fear that I will kill software and others in the space. Cybersecurity names like Cloudflare and Crowdstrike among the biggest decliners, Autodesk, ServiceNow and Okta also seeing big drops and a company we don't talk about much. It's called GitLab. Well, Guggenheim says you may need to get out because I may indeed take a bite of sales. One Big software etf, IGV hitting new lows today and wow, it is now underperforming the S&P 500 by about 40% over the past year. Dan, you've been watching, you've been all over it, you've been talking about this trade. What do you make about the trade in software right now?

[C]

Well, I think as much from a sentiment standpoint that some folks think there's an AI bubble, a capex bubble, it probably is going the opposite way as it relates to software. Right. And there really hasn't been too many positive narratives as it relates to enterprise software, application software. And I think a lot of folks are looking at all these agents coming out of these like, you know, these labs, right? And it's anthropic, it's open air and a handful of others here. And they're just saying, I just see how these are going to decimate a lot of these offerings now, these seatbelt offering in a whole host of ways that these companies have not really projected or thought out or articulated to investors how they are going to be using this technology, only that they're being disrupted. So I think we're probably pretty close to a point where a lot of the worst case scenarios, at least in the near term, are discounted. And I know a lot of folks who are, you know, investing heavily in the private markets and in AI are starting to now feel like the software thing in the public markets is getting a bit overdone.

[B]

You know, guy, here's ETFs, they can be wonderful, they can be great. You want to buy a sector, sell sector, you can do it. But I would venture to say, and I'm going to just speak for you for a second, please, you got to know what you own. And when you buy something like the igv, it's going to be filled with all different types of companies. Some of them are going to get hammered, some of them are not. What's your macro take on software? And maybe these the ways to play it.

[D]

All right, the beauty of ETFs on the way up is exactly that. Because everything in these ETFs gets dragged up regardless of whether or not they should. The flip side of that coin is equally, well, as painful as is pleasurable on the way up. Because when Microsoft is getting throttled to the tune of now 30% over the last six months or so, everything gets dragged down with it vis a vis the etf. Here's my take. I think it's a little bit different than Dan's. I think Microsoft might be sniffing out, in my opinion, on top of all these other things, weakness in the labor market because they are a slave to the labor market. If the labor market falters, Microsoft doesn't win, especially with some of the jobs that are being lost. So Microsoft here at levels we last saw last April, a huge level, 19 times next year's numbers, which if you think about it, hasn't been there in maybe a decade or so in terms of valuation. But is it an underlying weakness in the labor market that Microsoft.

[B]

Maybe, Tim, but Microsoft is also a big player in AI vis a vis the investment in OpenAI, the parent company and chat GPT. So to Guy's point, maybe a loser on the labor side. I thought a winner on the AI side, but clearly the market disagrees.

[E]

Well, again, it's the biggest software company in the world, so it's going to go where it goes. And you can see that right there. I mean, 21 times forward, I actually can't read the small print. I just think it's 21 times forward and I have to stare at the prompter. But I do think it's a case where Microsoft's frankly interesting. I was nibbling some Microsoft today. I get back though to the real debate here, especially today was fascinating because in the security software space you had CrowdStrike, which had an awful day. CrowdStrike, which has been a little more resilient than others within there, but you had this whole anthropic dynamic where, you know, just yesterday we're talking about how they're essentially bringing cybersecurity along for the ride, that there was an argument that actually, if anything they're going to accelerate demand that actually CrowdStrike in conjunction with their project Glasswing. By the way, who comes up with these names? I mean, it's, it's. Did you. I. Yeah, there you go. I think not only is there a chasm in terms of the debate on both sides, but I think there's a big opportunity for investors. It's what we're saying about the ETFs, not all these companies are created equal. I think, by the way, it's fascinating to own software as a group, not just in good times, but I mean, when you're looking at what's going on now, there may be some opportunities with names that get thrown out. I happen to think CrowdStrike is interesting. I happen to think cybersecurity is a place where differentiation and agentic is, is really being enhanced by AI. And that's just this one guy.

[F]

So The IGV did have a really nice bounce though off of that. Not dissimilar from where we are now. 76 ish. It was up 20%. So it's not shocking that it's come off a little bit. I do sort of think it's overdubbed. You're talking about the ETFs. I mean it's pretty concentrated. That IGV. The top names, Palantir, Microsoft, Oracle, CRM and Palo Alto. That's, that's, that's a big chunk of what the whole thing is. If you want to make those bets. I don't know, I think you sort of do want to make. Would you say you do want to make? The sales are on a bounce. On a bounce. But I think the thing about the software space is it's not like they will ring the bell and say this threat is over. And I don't even think a couple of quarters of okay numbers will be enough to have them ring the bell. I think it's going to be a lot slower. So where things were before, I think that was then, this is now. They're not going to get back to there, but we still have some room to rush. But I'm not, I'm not buying it.

[C]

Well, earnings I think in the next few weeks can be really interesting. If I was the CEO of one of these companies, I just kind of give up on 20, 26. I literally just guide down and see what sort of happens here. Right. And so, you know, at some point it's like there's no one left to sell and you maybe get some sort of capitulation, you know.

[B]

Is this like a premonition to a guide down, you think?

[C]

Well, I think, I think, I think like the mentality would be defend, defend, defend. But I think what I would be doing is I was a CEO of one of these software companies. I've been telling a story to Tim's point, how this sort of technology is actually going to make my offering better, it's going to make it more efficient, it's going to bring down my own costs. I think your point guy is a really important one. If the unemployment. Yep. If the unemployment rate starts to go higher and we're seeing these sorts of efficiencies, that is bad, but that's what's being priced in here, these seat based models. The only thing I'll say is if you think that this is a big surprise what's happened in software, just wait until one of these, these big capex guys, the big hyperscalers if they were to pull back, semis are dead, the memory stocks are dead. And it's not because they're going to see orders come in so hard. If the, you know, we see $200 billion in CapEx for Amazon this year and they say it's going to be 175, it's going to be just the signaling directionally. Right. And if there's this idea that in memory in particular that's trading at all time highs or the SMH was trading at all, I just think then you're going to see a rotation probably out of semis into software.

[F]

Can I just add one thing, though? I wouldn't be shocked to see Alex Karp upset with valuation and just, you know how he's persuasive and very colorful and it wouldn't shock me if he would have, if there would be an interview with him soon that would maybe help Palantir.

[B]

Trey, I mean, do you want that? You want to.

[C]

I don't know.

[F]

Well,

[D]

Dr. Karp.

[F]

Dr. Karp.

[C]

Well, how much better is that quarter or whatever they report in the guidance that they gave than what we just saw? And the Stock sold off 10% the next day?

[F]

I don't know. He's very, he's, he's a compelling interview.

[B]

Do you know?

[F]

He's a defender.

[B]

Does anybody around this table know what happened 14 years ago today? Melissa Lee reported on. No.

[F]

Did it.

[D]

I don't know.

[E]

Facebook. How would I know this?

[B]

Oh, Instagram. Oh, for $1 billion. That's interesting. Is it? Thanks. I actually feel like RBI made you happy.

[C]

It's probably talk.

[B]

You know why I brought that up today? Because today Random Metta, but Metta $21 billion infrastructure deal with core weave. And I think this kind of look at metta platforms up 2 1/2 percent. I can't figure out, Tim, where Meta fits into the software story. What are they?

[E]

I don't think Matter does fit into the software story. They're, you know, AI is enabling and giving Meta the kind of precision that they need in terms of their targeting, in terms of actually monetizing, but I think in the ad space and in terms of really their algos to deliver what they've always done. The question for Meta is not software. The question is how much are they going to keep spending on capex? The question is also are they developing their own chips or are they buying? And I think right now we don't totally know that. That's, that's the dynamic. I don't think matter is being Painted with a software brush at all.

[C]

Well, they're actually renting them, though. I mean, that's the point of the $21 billion deal with Corvus.

[B]

Right?

[C]

They're not buying them. They're paying Corvus to go out there and buy them and create the data center, that sort of thing. But both of those companies to do that have to take on a lot of debt. And I think that's what's going on. That's obviously the Oracle thing.

[D]

Karen can speak to this thing. Take some consolation. The bounce off the lows we saw from last April has been $80 off the lows, which percentage wise, a decent move for Facebook. You haven't seen a bounce like that in quite some time. Now the question is, does it continue into earnings? Unfortunately, earnings are on April 29, so you got some wiggle room in between. But I think maybe the worst is over right now.

[B]

Quickly, would you rather, would you play this home?

[D]

Sorry?

[B]

Would you rather be Google buying YouTube or Facebook buying Instagram? Oh, that's a good Google.

[D]

YouTube.

[E]

YouTube.

[G]

I agree.

[B]

Better deal.

[D]

YouTube was a home run.

[E]

Why are we doing that?

[C]

But by the way, can I interject

[B]

for one second because I'm the fill in host and I'm sorry, you're more than that.

[C]

If neither company. If neither I'm the go to fill in host. Hold on, Brian.

[B]

Yes, yes.

[C]

Question a couple answered. I think that, okay, if Google hadn't bought YouTube, I don't think it would have changed the company that much. But if Facebook had not bought an Instagram, it would have been existing.

[F]

Good point.

[D]

Boom.

[B]

All right.

[D]

I want to say this as well. Tim said it, but it's important. That's not what you are. You are much more than that.

[B]

I'm a superstar. You are.

[E]

That's right.

[B]

That's what you are. Let's get back to the big midday market. Move higher. It was on war related news, but not news related to the United States. Midway through the day today, Israel said it would begin immediate peace talks with Lebanon. That was a big boost for cease fire hopes. Megan Cassel at the White House with the very latest on what we know.

[E]

Megan?

[H]

Brian. That's right. There's a fundamental disagreement at the core of this cease fire deal and it's over. The fighting in Lebanon. Iran believes that the US And Israel committed to a ceasefire everywhere, including against Hezbollah in Lebanon. But the Israelis disagree. So that midday move higher that you mentioned came when Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that he had instructed his cabinet to open talks with Lebanon, he said at the earliest possible time, which is good news for the cease fire holding. Except, except that Netanyahu did not say anything about whether attacks would continue in the interim. And then later in the afternoon, Israel's defense forces came out with a statement saying, quote, we continue to fight against Hezbollah with great intensity. Now Iranian officials have said today that they believe ongoing attacks in Lebanon violate the U. S. Iran cease fire and that they would bring strong responses. And just over an hour ago, Iran's parliamentary speaker posted another warning about Lebanon being part of the deal and adding, quote, time is running out. So Brian, if we do see more Israeli attacks in Lebanon overnight at this point, not clear what that will mean for this fragile truce.

[B]

Brian, big headline though, certainly move markets, turn stocks around. Mega excel, thank you very much. All right. Sort of, kind of related to that is gold. Gold has managed to regain some ground since Tuesday's cease fire talk. Although gold still down about 8% the war began. But your next guest calls that pullback a healthy consolidation and still sees prices rising by as much as $1,000 an ounce this year. For more MKs PAMP head of metal strategy Nikki Shields on set. Here's what Nikki, thank you for coming on set. I don't understand why gold fell when war began because I thought gold was supposed to be a safe haven and in war you kind of rush to those what happened.

[H]

Yes.

[I]

So absolutely right. It should be a safe haven. Generally in past Middle Eastern oil crises it has acted as such. It has acted as a risk asset. Right now we came in when positioning was just so frothy. Right. And at all time highs. And I think people sort of forget the fact that during war you generally short dollars, you short liquidity and you short credit and gold became a high, high liquid asset in order to liquidate and sort of fulfill those needs. So yes, it has acted as a risk asset. It is trading alongside S and P and is inversely correlated to the dollar

[D]

at the moment as Nikki is the go to person in all things precious metals. I'm just putting it out there. I know this. Yeah. A number everybody knows anecdotally. I know it because I've, I've worked with her. She's fantastic. With that said, I'm going to ask her the following question which is going to be a smart question. Brian. So you know the bull case for going the two pillars have been the weaker dollar which is flipped recently and central banks buying gold. So we know what's going on with the dollar or central banks still buying gold the way they were at a

[I]

slower pace and they've actually turned as a sort of hints at. But some have actually liquidated some gold holdings Turkey, perhaps even some other emerging markets selling gold in order to prop up the their currencies. But we still think the majority of Eastern Europe countries and Asia will continue to accumulate and we've seen those in the stats in into China. They just continue to de dollarize and accumulate gold.

[E]

Yeah, I agree and this has been going on for a long time as someone's been in emerging markets a long time. I feel like I've been watching this movie for 25 years. What I think investors don't understand. Please put your research hat on and talk about how new production is not something that that's just happening. In other words, people assume gold mines are everywhere and that there's always more gold to be mined. And yet all these great stats about all the gold ever mine fits on a football field that's about 2ft high. Talk about how long it takes to bring supply online. But we love to talk about supply disruption or an imbalance in copper. Let's talk about in gold.

[I]

Yeah, no good points. I think the supply response you can't really. You can't turn on a mine overnight. Right. Take seven years plus the capital has been has gone into tech the last decade plus not into metals and mining. So you're sitting there really behind the curve. Where it could come from is through recycling. And so yes, above ground stocks of gold are sitting in gold bars, jewelry. But what makes this rally really different to previous rallies is that supply response just hasn't come back. People are still holding on to gold in the presumption of higher pricing.

[F]

So let me ask you something. A couple of years ago there was this thought that crypto would replace part of the reason one would own gold in a portfolio for a lot of the same fiscal irresponsibility, governments, all of that. Do you think that is no longer true?

[I]

No, I think look they both alternative small niche asset classes. So there's enough space in the portfolio if you're talking about 5% of your portfolio to allocate to a de dollarization asset class. I think they complement each other, they shoot on the same hip. Crypto is more of a sort of risk assets. It's a new newer asset class versus gold very mature and sort of riskless outside of January. But so yes, I do think they complement each other.

[B]

So if the cease fire does not hold, we hope it does.

[I]

Right.

[B]

But if it does not, does gold fall again?

[I]

I'm convinced on the next thousand dollar move, the next $200 move less convinced. I do think perhaps we could see further downside if obviously it's being completely inversely correlated with oil. So if we, if we seeing oil above convincingly above $100 again there could be some further downside in gold. Absolutely.

[B]

Nikki Shields, MK's Pamper really appreciate your views. Thank you very much. Guy Dami on the miners. Yes Brian, they've been moving with a higher sort of exponential move to gold itself. Are you bullish on the.

[D]

Yes. GDX went from 117an all time high to 82almost in a straight line not unlike gold. Now here we are. Crackstaff will put it up. Here we are at 98 and I think you know even if gold just goes sideways to slightly higher I think the miners are still levered and I think they go higher from here. Brian.

[E]

I just think the analyst community. Of course not Nikki but I think we live in a world where analysts are way behind the spot price in gold and what that means in their models and for the valuation of gold miners. And yeah in a risk off environment miners are going to underperform when we get back to normalcy. Why would you outside of all the reasons as human beings we care about a cease fire. If you're investing in gold, you know the cease.

[F]

Yeah.

[E]

If you're trading for the next three weeks, whatever. But this has been a 20 year trade. Look at the chart in gold. It is one of the best charts you're going to find long term. It is the best chart.

[B]

The best, yes. Like you outperform the S and P.

[E]

Not even close Brian, again just like you.

[D]

Why are you on the Tim?

[B]

Well because I don't understand Tim's comment about how gold people think gold. Gold mines are everywhere.

[E]

They do.

[B]

People assume they think there's a gold mine everywhere.

[E]

People assume there's always more gold to be mined. The presumption is except we could get back to Jim Bacchus and that Brady Bunch out.

[D]

Remember what happened they got locked in

[E]

jail because anyway because he thought and be Davis.

[D]

Yeah Was moving in on his gold class on deck.

[B]

Doubling down. I don't know how intel and Google are expanding a big chip partnership. Plus Disney Zoo CEO. He's coming in hot. He's laying off a lot of people. Tough news ahead.

[A]

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All right, welcome back to Fast Money. Don't look now, but intel just logged a seven day win streak and if you're counting at home, that's the longest win streak. September of 2023. A long lagging semiconductor stock now 50% in that time. In today's move coming as the company and Google announced an expanded partnership to supply AI chips for data centers. Christina Parcinopoulos joining us now on set with more on a big and I think surprising deal, maybe no, because it's

[H]

part of a multi year deal. And I say maybe because intel is keeping its eye on CPU chips inside Google's data centers. They've been actually collaborating for years and they're expanding into other hardware that keeps those systems running, handling things like networking and storage behind the scenes. So this is really about intel showing that Google isn't abandoning it, especially as big customers design their own chips and Nvidia dominates the AI conversation. One thing is moving in Intel's favor. CPUs of central processing units are becoming more important in AI systems. Nvidia's chips definitely get all the attention, but those systems still rely on the traditional processors to keep everything Running. This is also part of a string of recent wins for CEO Lip Bhutan of Intel, including a US government investment stake from Nvidia SoftBank. Giving intel credibility, credibility and a credibility boost as it tries to turn things around. Also why the stock has just climbed so high over the last little while. And you see the same strategy in Intel's tariff push tied to Elon Musk's AI buildout from earlier this week. Intel's positioning itself really as the infrastructure layer behind all of this. But the companies disclose no financial details or purchase commitments, no timeline. I pushed back on intel, they wouldn't give me any details. Intel still hasn't landed major outside foundry customers and that's the overhang. The Google deal adds hyperscalers credibility. The proof will be in the numbers.

[B]

Feels like Intel's like a phoenix kind of come out of the ashes. Right. Is this, you know, in chain or a meme stock? Well, okay, well that's interesting. Is it a meme stock?

[E]

Well, I don't know. I don't know what the balance sheet is. I don't know if these contracts.

[B]

We don't know what this deal is.

[J]

Right.

[E]

They haven't been able to produce and have a manufacturing business. They haven't been able to actually even partner with people that are more important to their core business like Taiwan semi. They're trying to buy back. Did they buy back their stake from

[H]

Apollo, the joint venture in Ireland just last week for 14 Point.

[E]

Where are they getting that money? They're land.

[H]

Well, they must be having. They laid off 30,000 people in the last two years. So he's been cutting back quite dramatically. They shipped their first chip on 18A which is an advanced process this year. So that's seen as a win. But I understand your point of view. The argument is that Liputan, the CEO is really doing a good job at saving, cutting back on costs, which is why he was able to buy back the Apollo Sharon. Maybe he'll do so with the other joint vent.

[B]

I'm not going to be like Super Fly Seymour coming off the top.

[E]

Jimmy the super. By the way, snook up.

[B]

Do we know the status that Ohio Fab was on again, off again, on

[H]

again, off again, still on, working through that.

[B]

Okay.

[H]

Yeah. I don't know if there's going to be any major delays like we heard in Maine today with the other story that Emily Wilkins shared, but no, you have no idea what I'm talking about. But it doesn't matter. No, that's still on.

[G]

No.

[H]

Well, you're like no, no.

[B]

Emily's story about the data centers in Maine, Dan educated me on Maine's political leadership and the importance of that story.

[C]

Can I get in there?

[B]

Oh sure, go ahead.

[C]

So you just have at it. The Nvidia investment going back to what it was the fall, right.

[H]

2025.

[C]

I think that was one of those things. I'm sure. I know you were reporting on it.

[F]

Really?

[G]

That's kind of weird.

[C]

Are we going to find intel in a position? And Tim just mentioned obviously from a fabrication standpoint, this company has misfired on numerous occasions because of all this Demand now for CPUs are they going to find themselves in a difficult situation to supply all these CPUs whether it's.

[H]

Well, they shared that on the last earnings call. They said that they couldn't keep up with the demand and if anything they were ill prepared compared to let's say the likes of amd, which is why you saw the stock drop so dramat post earnings. So I wonder this time around, I think it's April 23rd with the upcoming earnings report, they're going to say they've actually worked out that supply and demand issue and things have improved because demand, like you said for these CPUs is so strong and they could benefit. They are the CPU maker.

[B]

Well one of them is it a meme stock guy dummy Intel.

[D]

In 2000, intel made an all time high of 75. I think their EPS for the year was a buck 80 or so. I think they did it on like $35 billion of revenue. That's 26 years ago. This year they'll do $58 billion. That's probably apples to apples given inflation over that period of time. It's trading right now, in case anybody cares, almost 61 times next year's numbers, which is extraordinary. They report earnings on April 23rd. I mean they better say data center is better and things are getting better. Otherwise this valuation makes zero sense. Mame, he said it in a word, I said it in a lot.

[E]

This is, you know, you're, you're bothered by that term?

[B]

No, not at all.

[E]

It's okay.

[B]

I, I'd like to. We could do the whole hour on intel, except we can't because then I

[H]

could stay a lot longer here.

[E]

Well, you can stand hang out if you want.

[B]

You're good. All right. There's a lot more fast money to come. You don't care. Here's what's coming up next.

[F]

I would love it. There you go.

[E]

Disney slimming down the media giant's new chief making some moves early in his tenure, how the company is cutting costs and what could be next on his agenda. Plus, inflation. In Focus, A key price gauge coming tomorrow gives us a read on the impact from the Iran war, how it could impact the Fed's next decision, and what it could mean for stocks, the dollar and more. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.

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Welcome or welcome back. Disney planning to lay off as many as 1,000 employees, according to sources. Many expected to come from their marketing department. The news comes just weeks after new CEO Josh d' Amaro took over as CEO from Disney from Bob Iger At Disney shares down a percent and a half in the early trade before ending the day higher. Any take on Disney? Listen, I hate talking about stocks and there's layoffs because people are losing their jobs and it's not good.

[F]

Well, not long. But that's the right thing to do. You come in, you know, people are nervous. What's going to happen, what's going to change? It's better just do it as deep as you're going to, you know, as however many layers you plan on going. And then hopefully after that the rest of the employees can say, all right, now we're not going to focus on that. Let's get back to.

[B]

And listen, we love to talk about Disney as a media company because they are. They've got tv, they got espn, they've got abc. But the increasing bulk of their revenue, their earnings comes from the parks. I mean, that's why he should they dump the media side?

[E]

I don't think so. I mean, I think the media that they're shooting for is, is DTC and streaming. And I think they've had phenomenal growth and the profitability is increasing. It's part of the rest of that business is part of that flywheel. I don't know why anything's changed. It's just the medium of distribution has changed. And I think by the way, they're getting their act together. But look, as a shareholder in this name, this has been dead money for 15 years. And it's not about valuation. I think the new leadership, the parks are printing money.

[B]

The cruise lines are making a lot of money. The problem is, is media streaming is a hard business.

[E]

Well, again, I just think what we've seen in the media world, especially at Paramount, Skydance, etc. I think some of these properties, I think ESPN is intrinsically more valuable than the market gives it credit for. And I think we've seen that based upon what people are paying for assets.

[B]

All right, coming up, what this morning's inflation read may or may not have told us about the economy and how the Middle east war impact. The CPI data coming out tomorrow. We'll get more on all of it. Markets up for seven straight days. We're back in two minutes.

[C]

Missed a moment of fast.

[E]

Catch us anytime on the go Follow

[G]

the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.

[B]

All right, welcome back. Stocks continuing their momentum after yesterday's surge as hopes rise for a broad, broad Mideast cease fire. The dow jumping nearly 300 points, turning positive for the year. The S&P 500 up 6. 10 of 1%. Still down a touch for the year. But if you throw in dividends, you're going to be higher. The Nasdaq up 8, 10 of a percent. Both the S&P and Nasdaq now on seven day win streaks. That is actually the S&P 500 longest win streak since October and the Nasdaq's longest win streak since 2024. Now oil actually rose today, rose three and a half percent. It's now just below $98 per barrel. And by the way, we've got some new postings around the war. President Trump just put this out minutes ago on Truth Social. Quote, there are reports that Iran is charging fees to tankers going through the Hormuz Strait. They better not be and if they are, they better stop now. Donald J. Trump Meantime, shares of Brown forman surging nearly 13% today. They're a big maker of booze including Jack Daniels. And they are reportedly exploring a deal privately owned spirits maker Sazerac, which owns brands like Fireball whiskey and Buffalo Trace Bourbon Report comes a few weeks after the company said it has held talks for a deal with Frances Pernod Ricardo. In the meantime, the dollar tumbling this week following France President Trump's two week Iran cease fire announcement. So for more on this and more, let's bring in Vander president Jens Nordvik. He is also the founder of Exante Data. All right, Jens, lot to talk about with the war dollar currencies. What's the number one thing that you are focused on right now?

[J]

So we have a chat system where we talk with our clients around the world 24 7. And the most important data point that all our investor clients around the world is watching is literally whether there's any crude oil tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Right. So this is not a data point that we look at every day last year, but now we look at it every 10 minutes.

[F]

Right.

[J]

To give a precise picture of what is actually flowing.

[B]

So I want to, I want to pat myself a little bit on the back. For a couple of weeks now we've been showing that live chart saying this is because I talk to smart people like you and others Yen that that live chart of the Strait of Hormuz is right now, right now the most important chart in the world for the stock market.

[J]

Absolutely, absolutely. So we, we have different types of data. We have to be very careful about how we interpret it.

[E]

Right.

[J]

It matters whether it's a few t tankers coming from Iran directly. Right. Or whether it's international tankers that are actually transporting crude oil as normal.

[D]

Right.

[J]

And so far it's essentially only Iranian oil and Iranian vessels that are coming out and that's the reason why we have, despite the ceasefire, crude oil prices bouncing up as you mentioned in the intro over the last 24 hours, Jens,

[D]

the strength in oil is devastating to Japan. Their currency weakens seemingly by the day 160. Whatever reason is seemingly the line in the sand. It's doing it against a bond market that continues to erode. If that's the most important chart, second or third most important chart I think is what's going on with Japan and their currency. Thoughts on that?

[J]

Yes. So we've, we've had an episode here since this war started, right, where the dollar got a safe haven bid. It got a bit because the United States is energy independent and the ones that got. But the biggest damage were the ones that import a lot. So the Asian countries, including Japan is right up there and we had significant weakness in Japanese yen, Korean won and so forth. So that's really what was happening into the ceasefire right now we've had some relaxation and what is pretty interesting in the last two days is that the dollar and to some degree the equity market is starting to diverge a little bit from the short term fluctuations in the crude oil. So I think that tells you that there's some hope, right, that even if the short term is going to be very volatile, there's some of the tail risk around dramatic further escalation, troops on the ground, damage to not just transit but also production. That fear has gone down and I think that's why you're starting some of the correlations change. Like we had, we had a couple of days, right, where everything was exactly the same trade and now we start to see a little bit more risk taking. Our clients definitely engaging more again and that's leading to somewhat different correlations where different assets are trading with, with less correlation to crude oil. Let me put it that there's still correlation, but less extreme than a couple of days ago.

[E]

Yen's next move in the dollar below 96 or above 102.

[J]

So I do think if this ceasefire is holding, that will mean that risk taking is coming back. Risk assets can trade a little bit better, as we've seen over the last several sessions, right? And in that environment the dollar is likely to leak lower also because in addition to the risk sentiment angle, we have other central banks around the world, ECB and so forth, that are actually going to increase rates because of this energy price pressure. And that's not going to be the case for the Fed. So you have a divergence where actually the rate differentials are starting to move against the dollar again, which is something that is new and a fresh impulse for that type of trend.

[B]

So what wins on a weaker dollar?

[J]

So I think in the current environment you have to look at each central bank individually rate because everybody's facing slightly different circumstances. And the most hawkish central bank right now is the European Central bank because they are coming into this with quite low rates and they're quite concerned about any upside risk to inflation. They have a one sided mandate as opposed to the Fed. So they're probably going to respond potentially as soon as this month. So that would be very important for currency markets.

[B]

Jens Nordvig, really appreciate it. Jens, have a great day. Thank you very much. Tim. Your. I'm not sure I agree with the EU going to raise rates. Take what's your.

[E]

I think the EU has to posture higher rates and they are, they are maybe the hawkish of the major central banks out there. But, but look, if we, if we begin to normalize, cease fire and all the stuff that we're still skeptical about, 96 in the dollar or below, which is, you know, 2% away is, is gold. You know, back above 5,500 is a booming market for equities. And I think the international stuff especially emerging really outperforms and we've seen those have been the outperforming trades on the way down.

[D]

I think the headwind that the dollar has created for gold abates in that circumstances. And gold, I think to Nikki's earlier point, I think gold goes higher from here as well.

[B]

All right, coming up here on Fast money pills on prime how Amazon is getting in on the weight loss drug craze and some really incredible stats from the company about the growth of Amazon Web Services. You're not gonna believe them, but we're gonna give them to you. They don't even deserve them Guy Domi, do they? No, we don't. And we're gonna give it to them next. Amazon, another big story today. It popped more than 5%. The CEO Adam Jassy said in a letter to shareholders. Andy, thank you.

[E]

Sure.

[B]

Very much. I appreciate that. The company will not be conservative in spending on AI. He noted it three years into its cycle. AI revenues. Listen, here's that stat that we wanted to give place before the break. We said the audience deserve it. We're going to give it to him anyway. Amazon Web Services revenues are running at a rate of $15 billion in the first quarter, folks. That is 260 times, 260 times what Amazon Web Services was generating at the same Point earlier in its lifespan, Amazon said it will start to stock Eli Lilly's new weight loss pills and kiosks. Kiosk, Kiosk. Yes, yes, thank you. In some of its primary care offices. Karen. I mean that 260% jump number is a. That's even.

[F]

Times.

[B]

That's even. Thank you. Even more powerful. I'm really rocking it tonight. Fun squawk box this morning. Even you have to be amazed by that. Even you.

[F]

I am indeed amazed by that. I mean, you know he had, Andy Jassy had his letter out. I didn't focus Adam. I'm sorry, I know we, we renamed him Adam but I thought the retail part I didn't focus on because the U.S. part, the chip part was so extraordinary as is the $200 billion in capex just for this coming year. But I thought the growth there is extraordinary. When you think about the US part, the margins in that business and there are a few different businesses besides just cloud. There's AI, there's chips, there's a bunch of different things. The margins there are 35 ish percent versus in retail mid single digits maybe. And so where the stock is trading now with the growth that they're looking at, he's pounding the table on extraordinary growth.

[C]

Well, by the way, I mean Andy Jassy, the fourth most famous guy from Scarsdale, I think that's fair. Tim Seymour. There's Tom, Ron Rogers. There's Ars.

[E]

Yeah.

[C]

And John Revelli and then there's Andy Graves. Well, I think it's important to remember astronauts Jassy ranb us for a very long time.

[B]

Right.

[C]

Right before. So this is going to be his baby. This is transformed the company. You can talk about retail all you want, right. This is a company, it's doing I think 125 billion in AR. That's AWS. And you know, Microsoft Azure is their big competitor. They're growing slower than Azure is. But it seems like, you know, investors really like the idea that anthropics models and OpenAI's models and a bunch of other models are on us and I think they think they have the ability to kind of hit a different SMB as you see more uptake of these models.

[E]

I just do think that this is powerful. Karen talked about this earlier in our, in our call, but the, the, the metrics here and the power and the unit economics of what AI means to Amazon. Amazon is enormous. And remember if we were Talking about Amazon 10 years ago, the big kind of dynamic we would point to is when they want to Flip the switch. They can flip the switch. This is a company that's always invested in infrastructure and logistics in erp. That's what they've done here too. Amazon on valuation is very interesting. This was a great couple of days of headlines for the company.

[D]

Basically a market multiple ish, I mean maybe a tad higher but we can sort of round down in terms of that which you historically don't see in Amazon. They report I think on the 23rd of this month. I think it rallies into earnings. The analysts average price target on this is to 80. I don't think that's that far fetched for the name.

[B]

All right, coming up, let's call this being me on the market. Why the CFOs. Some of the biggest companies don't expect much. Frank Collins to be along to tell you about that. CNBC's exclusive CFO Council survey out today with the read on the markets from finance chiefs to some of America's biggest companies. We asked how these decision makers are looking at everything from Iran to the war to tariffs and more. We don't know. But Frank Collin does. He's got it and he joins us now with the latest. Frank?

[G]

Hey there, Brian. Well, CFOs they appear to be calling for an end of the bull market. At least through the lens of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. 60% do not see a significant move to the upside or to the downside for the Dow. So if you're looking at this as the glass half full, the majority are not forecasting a bear market. But only 12% of CFOs see the Dow hitting a new record which would only be about a 5% move from where we closed today. Also very important to note here, 16% do see the Dow falling back to its 52 week low. A more than 20% move to the downside. So there is some bearishness among these financial decision makers. Oil in the Iran conflict also raises some questions about their broader financial targets. 12% saying they will have to revise those numbers, 60% saying they will not revise and more than a quarter saying hey, we're just not sure, adding it is all under review the volatility in the oil market, that's likely a major factor. We surveyed CFOs between March 23rd and April 2nd. And Brian, you know this very well. During that time oil moved double digits to the upside. When it comes to their EPS numbers, we saw a similar mix of responses over the next 12 to 18 months. Just about a quarter see their current earnings level as highly sustainable. 40% say moderately sustainable. But more than a third, they say their current earnings level is at risk. And speaking of earnings, we asked the CFOs about a potential SEC rule change that would permit semiannual reporting. Now, if that rule change happens, headwinds. 20% say they plan to go to semiannual reporting. 8% said they would not. More than a quarter say they're just not sure about it. 44% say we're not answering, not applicable to their business. Brian?

[B]

Yeah, not. That's it. 44% said not up. So when we get the next survey out, Frank, how often does this thing come out? Because I'm curious what they're going to say when the war ends. Assuming hopefully sooner than later and how things may change after that.

[G]

Well, Brian, you're thinking like a lot of people on Wall street are thinking that there's going to be a definitive end to the war in a couple of weeks, maybe a couple of months. We generally do these every quarter. It's not a quarterly survey, but roughly every quarter. So I do think it will be interesting. One of the key data points in this, we didn't hit on it here is the number of CFOs that say their business will be impacted with oil above 100. Obviously it's right around 100 now. So if this conflict continues after the cease fire, those results, they're going to be very interesting.

[B]

Yes, they will be. And we'll look forward to them. Frank Cohen with the exclusive CFO CNBC survey. Frank, thank you very much.

[G]

Good to see you.

[B]

All right, let's take a very short break and then we're going to come back with final trades.

[E]

Exciting part of the show.

[B]

I think it's the very end of the show, so it's super exciting. We're back. Better for this. It is final trade time. Tim Seymour, kick it off.

[E]

Brian, you were like an adult beverage to all of us tonight. It was great having you.

[B]

And overpriced and quickly down.

[E]

Well, you know, Adam in, Steve, Andy, Jesse, you didn't. I'm kidding. I think Amazon is undervalued here. I do think the unit economics and the RoC of AI are working of that.

[F]

Okay, volatility index here now below 20. I think we've got more bumpy roads ahead. So I'm going to buy some of the May volatility index calls. Remember, it's on the future, not the spot comes out.

[E]

Vix.

[C]

I have a sully hangover.

[B]

I got to be really honest.

[C]

I think the IGV is close to a near term trading opportunity.

[D]

Scott, you're rocking my UNC women's soccer garbage.

[C]

You guys laughed at me.

[F]

No, it's really good.

[D]

Let us see.

[B]

Thanks for watching everybody. Mad Money starts right now.

[A]

All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer this is the

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