← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
S&P 500 Nears Record High… And A Flex In The Weight Loss Drug Space 6/24/25
00:43:01
Stocks jumping as investors digested the latest Middle East developments, with the S&P 500 inching towards fresh record highs. The names leading the charger, and if the markets can reach new heights in the coming days. Plus A major flex in the weight loss drug space, as Scholar Rock boasts some new trial data. What the CEO says sets them apart from the competition. Fast Money Disclaimer
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- [00:00]
Melissa Lee
A rich life isn't a straight line to a destination on the horizon. Sometimes it takes an unexpected turn with detours, new possibilities, and even another passenger or three. And with 100 years of navigating ups and downs, you can count on Edward Jones to help guide you through it all. Because life is a winding path made rich by the people you walk it with. Let's find your rich together. Edward Jones Member, SIPC Introducing the new Dell AI PC. Powered by the Intel Core Ultra processor, it helps do your busy work for you so you can fast forward through editing images, designing presentations, generating code, debugging code, summarizing meeting notes, finding files, managing.
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Tim Seymour
Your schedule, responding to Jim's long emails.
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Melissa Lee
Leaving all the time in the world for the things you actually want to do.
- [00:52]
Tim Seymour
No offense, Jim. Get a new Dell AI PC starting.
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Melissa Lee
At 749.99@dell.com AI PC how those ahead? Stay ahead from the NASDAQ markets in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Markets in rally mode, major indices closing back in on records. What's behind this move and can the good times keep rolling and rocking higher? We'll talk to the CEO of small cap biotech scholar Rock about how he's taking on the weight loss space and how its new drug is working with the big players. Plus, FedEx doesn't deliver in its latest earnings report. Payment stocks power up after weeks of weakness and as temperatures soar across the US A look at the stocks keeping the grid running. I'm Melissa Lee coming to you live from Studio B at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Dan Nathan, Gai Adami and Danny Moses, founder of Moses Ventures. We start off with stocks surging again as investors hope that a cease fire between Israel and Iran will hold the S and P jumping more than a percent, closing less than 55 points off its intraday record set in February. The NASDAQ 100 actually setting a record close. And while the Dow has a little more ways to go, that index still ended the session at its highest level since early March. Meantime, oil prices plunging another 6% today, now below $65 a barrel. The move weighing in on energy stocks, which was the worst performing sector in the S and P once again today. And take a look at Treasuries, the Yield on the 10 year on the 10 year hitting nearly 2 month lows. Markets seeming to think the Fed is still on pace to cut rates soon. For more, let's bring in CNBC Steve Liesman. Steve, did Fed Chair Powell in his testimony today give any belief that that was the case? It sounded like it was not, that it was completely off the table and that it actually was contradictory in some ways to what Waller and Bowman have said in recent days.
- [02:39]
Steve Liesman
You know, Melissa, sometimes I think the market is like Jim Carrey when he says so you're telling me there's still a chance. I did not get that impression on day one of his two days before Congress sticking very much, I thought to his view that tariff inflation is likely coming and the Fed should wait to see how the effects of the broader economy work out before it cuts rates. Here's what he said.
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Tim Seymour
We haven't fully restored price stability and another shock. We have to be careful. If there's a meaningfully large and sustained inflation shock, we have to be careful about that.
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Dan Nathan
And so, you know, I think we're.
- [03:17]
Tim Seymour
Just trying to be careful and cautious.
- [03:21]
Steve Liesman
So you're telling me there's still a chance. Powell said he expects tariff inflation to show up in June and July. Note those two months that he's looking at. But the Fed could adapt policy if that doesn't happen. He noted that the most officials still have two rate cuts built in for the year. So it's just most officials think that inflation is going to get to a place where it'll allow them to cut. And by the way, markets went up and bond yields rallied but Fed futures continue to trade very much along the lines I just laid out. July probability still at 19% but more confidence now in September and December up north of 80% for both of those. Obviously the two Fed governor said they could see a rate cut in July. But several Fed officials joining Powell today in saying the Fed should not be in a hurry to cut until it understands the impact of tariffs on inflation. I'd point out again, if you didn't know, Melissa, that seven Fed officials in the forecast last week said no cuts, nine of them, which is a majority, almost a majority of the committee, said only one cut.
- [04:18]
Melissa Lee
It was interesting to hear bar coming out and that's who you're referring to, I'm assuming, saying that they will have to wait, that they're in a good position to wait and see what the impact of inflation tariffs are on inflation. It almost seemed like he was going to, he was falling in line. And I'm just wondering how unusual, if it is unusual to have Fed governors speak just days before the chairman indicating a different stance from what the chairman was expected to say in testimony.
- [04:48]
Steve Liesman
I think it's pretty unusual. There are different reasons why they might be speaking. We can talk about those. But it also may be that that's what they think in terms of where they think things are going. They have this idea of looking through the possible inflation. In other words, they're not arguing there won't be inflation. What they're arguing is that Fed policy can look through it now and not be restrictive. I don't think that's an argument that is bought by the majority of the committee, but it is something that's not a crazy idea. If the Fed cut in July, I think it's not possible. Melissa, if you think about the idea, put yourself in July. Let's say you do get a bump up, a meaningful bump up in inflation from the tariffs that the Fed chair steps to the podium, says, yeah, inflation's 3% and we cut a quarter because we're looking through it. Remember, Powell needs to talk tough now in order to make sure there is an inflation on the backside. He keeps saying it's our responsibility to make sure that one off tariff inflation does not become a broader inflation problem. That's part of what he's doing right now.
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Guy Adami
Steve, given all the information, we all have the same access to cutting rates. What poses the greatest risk, being too early or being too late in your opinion?
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Steve Liesman
I think being too early, I think that you want to see the inflation and what's going to happen to it. For example, my first reaction when the May inflation report came out was that there were indications of higher prices from tariff tariffs. What there weren't were indications that those higher prices had bled into other areas. You still have the service inflation coming down. You may have some help from housing and there's an offset there. But look, we don't know what the President's going to do. July 9th. We're waiting for the employment report July 3rd. The chair did say that labor weakness would be something that would change the calculus. Then you have an inflation report July 15. So there'll be more of that information that you're talking about right there that will help the Fed make the decision and probably make it more clear what the Fed should be doing.
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Melissa Lee
Steve, great to see you. Thank you so much.
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Steve Liesman
Thanks, Melissa.
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Melissa Lee
Steve Liesman, so what do we make of the market reaction in particular the move or very little movement in bonds, in yields? That is yields came down a little bit. Dollar came down a little bit during his testimony.
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Danny Moses
Tim, I think it tells you what the first of all, the lack of volatility in the bond market is something I think the equity market loves and I think the fact that you're somewhat rangebound here in terms of the ten years, not terribly surprising because again, inflation expectations haven't really changed. They've been kind of in line. I would even look at the, you know, the Dick Fed Fund futures and you know, we've moved about 9 or 10 basis points in terms of the short end of the curve. So it's not like you've suddenly priced in runaway. But I thought Powell today, you know, unofficially of course, ratified the Fed speak of the last few days and certainly Waller and Bowman and I think this is a case where when he, when he's asked in question, hey, you know, could you guys move in July? And he says something along the lines of as long as inflation measures stay contained, that gives the market all they need to know. And again, you know, war is war and it's awful. The market is more focused on the Fed and has been for the last three or four trading sessions.
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Frank Holland
I think that on the margin he was a little bit more dovish, actually. And the reason I say that is he's basically saying if I get lower inflation rates, which is what he's been saying. But we get one this Friday. PC, right. We have fed minutes July 9th. Normally that's a nothing burger. You don't it already happened the past. But you get a better idea what was talked about in that meeting. And my whole thing is this, the meetings are every six weeks for the Fed. So if he doesn't do anything, they can go 50 basis points the next meeting. So I'm with you. I wouldn't cut yet because we don't have enough information. But he basically said he would have already cut 100 basis points potentially that would be what would be built in if it weren't for the tariffs.
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Tim Seymour
Yeah, to your point, we have CPI July 15th and we have the Fed meeting July 30th and we know that the favorite thing Are you going to be in Jackson Hole late August guy. This is a big Fed confab there. And that has been historically something where you see a bit of a shift. Yeah, messaging. And Tim just mentioned what we've seen in the CME Fed Watch tool. You've seen, I think it was pricing in maybe 14% or something like that. Now it looks like a 20% of a 25 basis point cut at the July meeting. I mean there are a couple of scenarios where you could see a slightly more dovish tone here and there, a little bit more pressure from some of these other Fred Governors and then all of a sudden it looks like maybe it's a toss up, you know, what will the stock market be discounted though at this point? If we're at 6150, 6200 or something like that, it might be a bit of a sell the news. And then you have to go back and say what are the reasons in which they're doing this? Last year in September, they were doing it because they were worried about the jobs market. You guy and I just had a conversation with David Rosenberg, Rosenberg Research Rosie he thinks there is considerable weakness in the housing market, in the jobs market that is not being reflected in some of the data that we've seen. And you may say, well he's, you know, does that from time to time. Well, he's done it a couple of times from time to time as long as I've been following him, when he's been actually spot on, when no one else has actually recognized some of the things that he's doing. So again, the jobs is going to be important. Some of the inflation data, he's not even worried about inflation by the way. He just thinks some of the underpinnings of the economy.
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Melissa Lee
How would that weakness be masked?
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Tim Seymour
Well, I mean he'll break down just some of the data as it relates to what the Fed chair is saying about the employment picture and what he sees below in some of this, you know, sort of softer data, if you will. And he thinks it's going to become hard data in the not so distant future.
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Guy Adami
The homebuilders suggest exactly that. But getting back to the market, I mean 400 points ago Tim on the show said the pain trade is going to be higher and here we are with 50 handles away from an all time high. I mean that's clearly been the case, but you know, at what point? Clearly not now. But do valuations and potentially a slowdown matter? Because we have gotten ourselves back to 23 times next year's earnings in terms of the S&P 500. We just heard from FedEx. I'm sure we'll talk about it. The homebuilders suggest something else is going on. A variety of retailers are telling a similar story. I just think the market and just in terms of risk reward and being expensive is at the wrong end of the of the ship right now.
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Melissa Lee
For more on Powell's testimony how the Middle east conflict factors into the Fed's thinking, let's bring in Fed Watch Advisors founder Ben Emmons. Ben, great to see you. I first want to ask you about bond yields being at 4.29 on the 10 year. And I'm just wondering because we saw this is a day when the markets rallied, we saw oil come off precipitously with all the risk premium got taken out of the oil market at this point and we didn't have much of a move in the bond market. So at this point, is it really the Fed and the notion that there will be a cut very soon that is holding bonds in place?
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Ben Emmons
I think so, Mel. Good. See as well, because, you know, Powell did open the door, I felt for the rate cuts, you know, at the press conference he was a bit more, more stern about it. But in this testimony he sort of outlined the paths and how he can get to these rate cuts and that he sees as a tariff really the reason why they're holding off. He also quantified that that if there were no tariffs and rates actually could be as low as 100 basis points from here. So I think that keeps the bond in place because if you were to cut faster here with more likely rate yields are going to rise again like we saw last year in the fall. So I think to Danny's point, like the Fed may have here an opportunity to cut a little bit more in September says all this data ahead of them and then make that decision, do a larger cut. So I think this keeps the yield a bit for more falling further than, rather than actually rising. I think it actually is more pressure to rise if the Fed goes faster and sooner.
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Danny Moses
And it's, it's amazing what an equity rally can do for the rhetoric around, you know, what happened to people were no longer going to be buying Treasuries, what happened to supply the technical issues in the treasury market that are going to trend it towards four and three quarters, you know, certainly a few days after Iran. And you know, some of the rhetoric, if you read in the global press, is that the US Is no longer a reliable partner and that people would be stepping away. And all we've heard of for four months is what in terms of foreign buyers of Treasuries might be thinking and what global central banks are doing. Have you changed your tune on that at all? And again, I think you've been quite balanced on this. But it's, it's amazing how we're not hearing that discussion about the long end of the bond market right now.
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Ben Emmons
It's true, Tim, and I think my view is still the same there, that, you know, there was a bit of a move away from Treasuries and people are Wary of that. We have still this big budget bill in the Senate now through the Senate to the House. We obviously have this energy shock that will somewhat come through. We have tariffs so there's a lot of pressure there under the low end that we could see higher yields. That makes people wary. So this counter rally we're seeing currently may be really driven by more domestic players that were perhaps short other technical factors. But I think the story in itself hasn't really changed. So I think we're going to continue to have this higher pressure on long end of the yield curve really because we haven't really dealt anything away with the deficit or with inflation for that matter if in fact there's more risks now than anything. Even though we put a cease fire in place, this team seems actually quite fragile to be honest. Oil markets could pop back easily and therefore put pressure on long term yields.
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Guy Adami
So Ben, let's shelve Treasuries for a second and focus on the dollar because last I looked we're looking almost like a three year low in terms of the DXY or whatever you want to look at in terms of US currency. What story is that telling do you think?
- [14:09]
Ben Emmons
Yeah, I think it's still about like where whenever we get a bit of relief in markets it seems that then the economies that benefit from sort of the tariff relief or from this geopolitical relief that those currencies rally why the dollar is in bit. So as you can saw today with the euro for example touching 116, you know the ECB has been cutting now eight times. The economy in Europe is not that strong. But I think it's really about if there is relief from geopolitical crisis and it seems to be going to other currencies that benefit from this. In addition to that Euro and Brentos quite linked to each other. Brent is really the contract for Europe. So I think that's really what's playing there Guy. It's maybe not so much about the flight out of the dollar but I do think it's related to Treasuries that if Treasuries get more under pressure the dollar will likely get weaker.
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Melissa Lee
Ben, good to see you. Thank you for your time. Ben Emmons FedWatch Advisors where do you think yields are headed? There are a lot of push pulls. You can make the case either way.
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Frank Holland
The one thing the guy just mentioned, the dollar is the one thing that didn't make sense today in all of this. You would have thought the dollar strength with us reasserting itself. So I'm not sure But I would say this, if the Fed were to go too early, I think the long end moves higher in terms of yields. But there's something else going on here I felt like today. So there's other things let's not forget and let's also not forget one or two days of a bad market or down market and how illiquid these Treasuries tend to trade. It'll change the whole mood and tempo on the market in my opinion. So I think we're kind of fair value on the 10 year yields here, but I think the move is higher.
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Tim Seymour
Yeah, just back to the equity market of just looking at some of the things that led today. You know, semis, like it was just a dash for trash. When you see like an intel up 7%, there was a lot of names that didn't have any real fundamental reason to be rallying, especially when. Yeah, I mean there were just a.
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Danny Moses
Lot as a group are trash. I mean semis as a group are up.
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Tim Seymour
No, but I'm talking about the ones that really have not been in focus for the generative AI trade. Like we could, you know, kind of look at an AMD or an intel or a bunch of other names here. GlobalFoundries. I mean there's plenty of names that I think have not been a straight line to what has been working. But my point is when you see this sort of outperformance that you see in the stocks up nearly 4% versus an S&P is up one and a quarter percent or less, you have to start saying to yourself, obviously it's risk on, but where is the connection between where fundamentals are in valuation with the S and P Right now they seem to be disconnected.
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Guy Adami
Real quick, if we could put an SMH chart, I know that's not the greatest ETF of all time, but you'll see it was last June, it made an all time high, had a huge move lower at 272. Wherever we closed today, we're right back up to those levels and it seems it looks like the S and P chart by the way. And that makes sense. But what happens here? Do you get that acceleration through? Do you get a pause here? That's going to be fascinating.
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Melissa Lee
All right, let's get to FedEx now. We got an earnings alert here. Shares dropping after hours despite a top and a bottom line beat. The conference call kicking off at the top of the hour. Frank Holland has been listening in. Frank, what's the latest?
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Kate Rogers
Hey Melissa. Right now on the call, Steel Rogermannian was talking about some of the weakness in U.S. manufacturing and the industrial sector really weighing on the company's higher margin B2B business. But right now you see the stock is down significantly. That seems to be caused by current quarter guidance. That really seems to be what's moving shares of FedEx lower right now. The revenue guidance for the current quarter, that was actually better than expected. You can see here the eps guidance was $3.40 to $4, making the midpoint right around 9% below the overall estimate of over $4. And after such a strong beat on profit this quarter, the question really is what does the company see weighing on eps? On the call just now again, CEO Ross Romanian named a number of headwinds including geopolitical tensions and also big shifts in trade policy. Of course, right now we're in the middle of a tariff pause, but overall for the quarter they just reported Strong results. And FedEx said business actually improved through the quarter, citing strong US international import volumes likely from the pull forward and freight ahead of tariffs. And retailers really looking to stock up before the end of the pause. Again, a lot of uncertainty about trade. One down. Note the margin miss on Express. Deutsche bank out with a note this week saying rising volumes from Chinese fast fashion retailers. Those were actually a drag on margins. FedEx has also renewed its business with Amazon, another low margin business. But then at the same time, FedEx saw growth in daily volume for the second consecutive quarter after two quarters of being flat to lower since the company combined its express and ground units again tried to optimize this network. One other important note, CEO Rajpan was also talking a lot about R. Brad Martin, who's going to become the new chairman of the board after the passing of the legendary founder Fred Smith over the weekend. He's going to succeed him, I should say. You certainly can't replace him. And just a really legendary figure and really a great guy. I got a chance to know him quite a bit while covering FedEx.
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Melissa Lee
Frank, thank you. Frank Holland. Going to the quarter, the expectations were low, that they got lower. They got lower, the numbers were cut, price targets were cut going in here and a disappointment still.
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Danny Moses
And they talked about reducing capacity velocity from Asia to US and there's, there's an element here of cyclicality. But this is a FedEx story. To me, this is not an economic story. And I know we're all doubt there's. Scott, you're a doubt there's. Right. I mean I was around to that school.
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Melissa Lee
Right.
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Danny Moses
Yeah.
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Melissa Lee
Hand in it.
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Danny Moses
Yeah.
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Melissa Lee
So. So.
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Danny Moses
But I think much is often Made of how the transports lead and FedEx certainly should do that and has. But I think this is a story of integration of ground and express. This is Network 2.0. This is a company that's made so many missteps and is trying to transform very quickly at a difficult time.
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Guy Adami
People like me that have been trying to make a compelling case on valuation and it is cheap. It's not been the right way to go. You can't look at it in terms of valuation. And I'm with Tim on this. It is predominantly a FedEx story. But I think it's come some economics as well. But that the quarter is fine. That guide is an atrocity. I mean 342, I think $4ish. Drive a truck through that. No pun intended. Street was at 406 and to the earlier point the margins were disappointing. So it has not performed in the last three years. There's nothing in that guide suggest it's going to start doing it now.
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Tim Seymour
All right, let's be clear. Last night, 24 hours ago, I think we went around the horn guy. I thought myself we were like, you know, it's probably okay. But we did say one, there was a caveat. You probably got to go the opposite way here. And who knows how this shakes out. And I think for all the reasons that you guys mentioned, I don't think I was.
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Danny Moses
I think. I think I was mildly bullish too. So you can throw me under that chamber.
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Steve Liesman
No, I did.
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Tim Seymour
I said we went around the horse. Yeah, mildly bullish activity here. But you know, listen, they had the mulligan. I mean they had multiple mulligans and they kind of pulled them out. So it's kind of hard to see whether it's specific to them. I'm sure there's some truth in what's going on there, but this one's going to be clear as mud for a while.
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Danny Moses
So Danny, Danny wasn't. He was probably bullish too rally into.
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Frank Holland
The court a little bit. But it gave back more than that. So true.
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Tim Seymour
Danny.
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Guy Adami
Danny under the bus.
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Danny Moses
Why not?
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Tim Seymour
You know.
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Frank Holland
By the way, can I just say how nice update. I don't get those all the time here. It's great to be here.
- [20:44]
Melissa Lee
Thank you.
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Tim Seymour
We get them every day.
- [20:45]
Guy Adami
Yeah.
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Melissa Lee
MasterCard making moves how the credit card giant is sliding into the stablecoin space and who they're teaming up with to make it happen. The deal details next. But first, a hot utility trade. How triple digit temperatures sweeping the United States could be a boon for the sector. But a scorcher for the consumer. Don't go anywhere. Fast money's back in tune.
- [21:06]
Tim Seymour
How will you shape the future of energy with confidence? What does it mean to deliver affordable and reliable energy for all? From evolving supply and demand to pricing uncertainty, Ey understands the disruptions energy companies face and how to drive the outcomes that matter.
- [21:22]
Frank Holland
So whether it's in the plants, at.
- [21:24]
Tim Seymour
The pipeline or on the grid, EY's full spectrum of services help energy companies maximize operations to drive profitability and performance. EY shape the future with confidence.
- [21:36]
Melissa Lee
Heather is a nurse practitioner from UnitedHealthcare. We meet patients wherever they live. During a house call, she found Jack had an issue. Jack's blood pressure was dangerously high.
- [21:47]
Tim Seymour
It was 217 over 110.
- [21:50]
Melissa Lee
So they got Jack to the hospital.
- [21:52]
Frank Holland
And got him the help he needed.
- [21:53]
Melissa Lee
He had had a stamp placed in his heart preventing a massive heart attack. If it wasn't for my guardian angel, I wouldn't be here. Hear more stories like Jack's at unitedhealthcare.com benefits, features and or devices vary by plan. Area limitation and exclusions apply. Ryan Reynolds here from Mint Mobile. With the price of just about everything going up, we thought we'd bring our prices down.
- [22:14]
Kate Rogers
So to help us we brought in.
- [22:15]
Melissa Lee
A reverse auction auctioneer which is apparently.
- [22:17]
Tim Seymour
A thing Mint Mobile Unlimited Premium wireless.
- [22:20]
Guy Adami
Everybody to get 30, 30 better get.
- [22:21]
Tim Seymour
30 better to get 20, 20, 20 better get 2020 everybody get 15 15.
- [22:25]
Melissa Lee
1515 just 15 bucks a month. So give it a try@mintmobile.com Switch upfront payment of 45 for three months. Plan equivalent to $15 per month required new customer offer for first three months only. Speed slow after 35 gigabytes of network's busy taxes and fees extra. See mintmobile.com welcome back to Fast Money. Millions of Americans hunkering down under scorching temperatures this week and as people crank up the AC. What's it consumers electricity bills. Let's bring in CNBC's Pippa Stevens who's got some answers. Hey Pippa. Hey Melissa. So more than 160 million Americans are under extreme heat warnings or advisories. And as the central and eastern US See triple digit temperatures, it could be a boost for utility companies since more power sold increases revenue and earnings Power but not all utilities are created equal and the independent power producers could be the biggest winners. From record heat companies like Vistra, Constellation Energy and Talon operate in restructured markets and own generation. So when demand rises, they sell more power. On the regulated side, it's a little more complicated since it depends on whether there's usage based rates. Exelon, Alliant Energy, American Electric Power and CMS Energy all operate in markets where rates are not decoupled and so do have upside to extreme heat. And while it might boost utilities earnings, it is also boosting consumer bills. This summer Americans are Projected to spend $784 on cooling, the highest in more than a decade. Melissa Pippa, thank you Pippa Stevens. Fortunately oil prices are down so there's an offset in energy's and you know in consumers energy bills no doubt.
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Guy Adami
But there's a focus on things we talk about clean energy and natural gas and if you look below the surface things are happening for you acronym fans out there Mel and I'll throw you what Tim. Yes, the E in my tube. Take a look at what equity has done over the last month and a half or two months now we're approaching levels we last saw, I want to say almost 10 or so years ago. So the trade is absolutely working for all the reasons we just talked about.
- [24:23]
Frank Holland
The utility sector trades with 10 year yields for the most part, all things equal. So yields coming in is a positive for the sector in general. But Tim and I both know and you guys have talked about it ad nauseam about nuclear and this feeds into that thing. Yes, we're not going to build those plants for quite some time but they're getting, they're getting built now commission now to start and so this is another I think positive for the uranium trade. The trade right is going to force the hand of this.
- [24:45]
Danny Moses
So so CCJ had been on fire, so cameco so nuclear but then back to utilities, you know Constellation Energy I think was misunderstood in terms of both the Calpine deal being a major driver for their exposure not only to Texas but again nat Gas and nuclear. This is to me, I love this name and I think it gives you all the exciting thematic exposure I'm long So let's be clear. I think this is a case where utilities though overall and Carter shown this chart many times and over many years owning utilities is some part of that portfolio over time will outperform the S.
- [25:16]
Melissa Lee
And P. I know we should just call the show Fast Utilities. You're better off investing utilities over time.
- [25:21]
Danny Moses
Gold and utilities over the last 30 years.
- [25:24]
Kate Rogers
So shitty.
- [25:25]
Guy Adami
Oh, did I say that?
- [25:26]
Danny Moses
No, I didn't.
- [25:27]
Guy Adami
Well I mean that's a really bad name.
- [25:31]
Melissa Lee
Children aren't watching out there.
- [25:33]
Danny Moses
I didn't hear that.
- [25:34]
Frank Holland
That's a new ETF from Guy, by the way.
- [25:35]
Melissa Lee
Yeah, yeah, there's A lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.
- [25:41]
Tim Seymour
Payment players leaning into the stablecoin surge does the latest deal in the space mean the sell off in the legacy players is overdone? Plus flexing in the weight loss drug space, the latest trial results, tipping the scales for one company and what the.
- [25:57]
Melissa Lee
CEO has to say about its next move.
- [25:59]
Tim Seymour
You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this. How will you shape the future of industrials with confidence? Whether you need to define your strategy, optimize your supply chain, or keep pace with data driven manufacturing, EY professionals understand industrials and the sectors they supply, bringing the insights that deliver real outcomes with a full spectrum of services. EY helps strengthen your business from factory floor to product development and beyond.
- [26:31]
Danny Moses
So when the global market shifts, your.
- [26:33]
Tim Seymour
Business is agile enough to adapt. Ey shape the future with confidence. Are you still quoting 30 year old movies?
- [26:41]
Melissa Lee
Have you said cool beans in the past 90 days?
- [26:44]
Tim Seymour
Do you think Discover isn't widely accepted? If this sounds like you, you're stuck in the past. Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide. And every time you make a purchase with your card, you automatically earn cash back. Welcome to the now it pays to Discover. Learn more@discover.com credit card based on the February 2024 Nelson report.
- [27:07]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. MasterCard announcing today it will integrate Five Star's new stablecoin into its payments network. The news sending stocks higher Traditional payment stocks have been under pressure this month with Walmart and other merchants considering issuing their own stablecoins. So what could this mean for the payments landscape? This was thought to be perhaps an existential risk to these processors like a MasterCard and a Visa.
- [27:29]
Tim Seymour
It's just so funny how far we've come here. You know, the whole idea that these things can't de peg the whole idea that there's not particularly a lot of transparency. We saw what happened with Tether. If there was ever a reason to start to question like some of these blockchains in the security and the like, like this is not something that MasterCard and Visa and some of these other banks in my opinion are going to want to be that close to closely aligned with. I think they're probably going down parallel paths. I think they're probably trying to defend their moats a little bit. But you know, I take the over when you start to see large institutions like this doing it and then obviously consumers come after that in my opinion, but I just think it seems a little bit of a bubble right now in stablecoins.
- [28:05]
Guy Adami
30 times in MasterCard is not historically expensive for them, is actually probably tad cheap. But to your point, if this is some sort of existential risk, not in the next couple of months but in the next couple of years, the market starts to look at that and say, you know, maybe it's not worth it. I don't think we're there yet, but with the news stories that are out, we're a lot closer. I think if you look at the downdrafts in MasterCard and Visa over the last couple of weeks, it suggests that there's a bit of a sea change.
- [28:29]
Melissa Lee
Might be hard though to get consumers to change their behavior. You're so used to a credit card, you're not used to a stablecoin kind of card. You like your credit card, you like your points, Tim, you know, don't you?
- [28:39]
Danny Moses
How do you know I like my points?
- [28:40]
Melissa Lee
I know you like my points. You're that kind of.
- [28:42]
Danny Moses
I'm all about the points. But I tell you just when we counted out MasterCard and Visa during COVID and frictionless payment, why don't the biggest networks, both of merchants and consumers in the world have just the same ability, a better ability to convert this to stablecoins as far as I'm concerned, count them out at your own risk. I know the stock's not cheap. This is much more a story about consumer and cyclicality of the economy. So you tell me what's going on with the economy, I'll tell you where the stocks are going.
- [29:07]
Frank Holland
Visa, MasterCard. Probably the best business models that exist are just toll collectors or zero credit risk risk out there. They fought interchange fees in Washington for a long time. They've gotten through most of that. They will do partnerships like this. They have to play a little bit of defense, a little bit of offense. But to the point about Amazon and Wal Mart issuing their own stablecoin I think about it's like a pre funded gift card or something. But you could see a situation where There could be two different prices. If you want to use your Visa MasterCard you want to use so you could have a little bit less like we used to see with cash and credit cards. So something to think about.
- [29:34]
Melissa Lee
All right. Do not miss Jim Cramer's exclusive interview with the CEO of MasterCard. That is the tonight Mad Money 6:00pm Eastern Time. Coming up, a major flex one biotech company trying to shake up the obesity drug race by offering potentially higher quality weight loss. The CEO will join us next to explain. That's when he's back in to missed a moment of fast.
- [29:57]
Tim Seymour
Catch us anytime on the go. Follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.
- [30:05]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to FAST money. Stocks higher even as investors digested a shaky ceasefire between Israel and Iran. The Dow jumping more than 500 points. The S&P climbing a percent and now less than 1% from its record high. And the tech heavy NASDAQ leading the gains up nearly one and a half percent. JP Morgan in the green. The bank stock hitting fresh all time highs now up nearly 18% this year. Shares of Carnival Cruise Lines jumping nearly 7% today. The company topping EPS and revenue expectations, raising its full year forecast, reporting resilient demand and higher onboard spending. Rideshare stocks getting a boost. Analysts at TD Cowan upgrading Lyft from hold to a buy rating, upping the price target to $21 from 16 Uber jumping as Alphabet's Waymo robo taxis became available to its rideshare customers in Atlanta. Uber Waymo Rides rolled out in Austin, Texas in March. Well, Skalalock holding on to gains since reporting that its spinal muscular atrophy drug helped patients on Eli Lilly Zepbound reduce muscle loss, a known risk factor factor tied to GLP1 obesity drugs. The drug is still in mid stage trials for weight loss but currently under FDA priority review to treat sma, a genetic muscle wasting disease. Joining us now to dig into the results is Skalal Rock CEO David Hallal. David, great to have you with us.
- [31:16]
Dan Nathan
Great to be with you, Melissa.
- [31:18]
Melissa Lee
So walk us through the data because this is very interesting. At 24 weeks the combination led to less overall weight loss, but the weight loss was quote unquote, higher quality. Quality, less muscle loss.
- [31:28]
Dan Nathan
Yeah. So at Skalaroc, as the world's leaders in myostatin biology and proving what we could do by stimulating muscle growth in children and adults suffering with spinal muscular atrophy, we had a hypothesis and that hypothesis was that given the fact that GLP1s have made so much meaningful benefits in the lives of patients, one of the blemishes is obviously somewhere between 25% upwards to 40% of the weight loss happens to be really valuable lean mass loss. And so that we said to ourselves as the world leaders in this space, what can we do? It's our obligation to understand what kind of benefits we could have for patients. And so we designed this trial where patients received either tirzepatide alone or apidogramab with tirzepatide and what we saw in just 24 short weeks, some pretty remarkable data. The primary analysis demonstrated lean mass preservation of 54%. That was a P value equal to 0.001. Secondly, as you noted, not only did patients lose less muscle, they also lost slightly more fat. The overall weight loss was pretty similar. But importantly, as you said, the quality of that weight loss. So it went from 70% fat mass, 30% lean mass, to on our therapy, 85% fat mass was the lost weight and only 15% was lean muscle mass.
- [33:04]
Melissa Lee
So this is really interesting data. But at the same time, at the same conference, Lilly also released its own data for, I would say its version of this sort of add on by Magrumab. And that was also phase two. And it also showed that for patients taking Tirzepatide plus this other drug, that they were able to have higher quality weight loss. So how do you see yourself fitting into this market once if it does reach commercialization?
- [33:33]
Dan Nathan
Sure, it's a great question. Our core at Scholarock has been to be the world leaders not only in myostatin biology, but really focusing on children and adults with these devastating rare neuromuscular disorders. And as you noted at the front part of this segment, we're so excited that our application is being reviewed by the FDA under priority review for patients with spinal muscular atrophy. We're also looking beyond spinal muscular atrophy at additional rare severe and devastating neuromuscular disorders. And we'll be updating the world on those plans later on this year. As it relates to this space, with Lilly being real leaders, obviously with Tirzepatide and now with with that muscle preserving approach, I guess the way we take a step back and during our investor call last week, we said whether or not it's our place to do those longer, larger trials that will be needed on a path to commercialization. If that is not our place, maybe we take a step back and think about what approaches we can take. I will say this though, Melissa. This is such a massive market. I mean, some analysts today were saying this muscle preserving market in the obesity space alone may be worth $30 billion. So I don't think it's a winner take all in this market. I think you have Lilly and you have other companies, you have us that is doing something really, really uniquely with exquisite selectivity to myostatin and safety, that we think that platform in and of itself will have a role in the space.
- [35:12]
Guy Adami
Well, as Cowan had said that, and that was going to be my question, you know, how do you fit into that $30 billion and do you have sort of the Runway, do you have the balance sheet to sort of go it alone? Can you get to that point?
- [35:23]
Dan Nathan
So it's a great question. I want to leading this company, stick to our knitting, which is rare neuromuscular disorders. We closed last quarter Q1 with about $364 million on our balance sheet. We think that takes us into 2027 with an expected anticipated launch of Apidogram AB and SMA later this year in the US and then next year in Europe. And we do aim to reach patients in up to 50 countries around the world with spinal muscular atrophy. So how we think about investing in this space, maybe with a different one of our own innovative anti myostatin assets, is something that we're thinking about not only alone, but potentially through partnership with a company really dedicated to this space.
- [36:10]
Melissa Lee
That's what I was going to ask you because a lot of investors think that obesity, that figuring this out, that that's sort of a distraction for you guys, that you should really be focused on the SMA use as opposed to weight loss. And when you talk about licensing or partnership, could that be for instance Novo, which would be the next logical place to go? And would you then have to repeat the entire study using its molecule as opposed to tirzepatide?
- [36:35]
Dan Nathan
So it's a good question without commenting specifically on which partner we would consider. You're absolutely right that we have a massive opportunity on our hands to serve patients in upwards to 50 countries around the world with the transformative benefits that we believe we can provide to patients with sma. So as we think about the partnering plans, one of the things our team has done as the best in the industry, remember apidogramab is on track to become the first FDA approved anti myostatin drug. We think that underscores our leadership position, but we have other ones as well and those other ones could be the basis coming with the right profile for the larger cardiometabolic space.
- [37:20]
Melissa Lee
Okay, David, we're going to have to leave it there. Hope you'll come back and keep us posted on all these updates. David Hallal of Scholar Rock it would be good news for your Novo Nordisk Tim to have something like this.
- [37:31]
Danny Moses
It would be. And again, I think people have been thinking about what is the optimal combination. I just think the dynamic here for Skalrock, it's really, it's a case of FDA path and then I think reimbursement. Those are the only real questions. It's not about efficacy. And I think the market has rewarded the stock because of that.
- [37:49]
Guy Adami
It's an interesting company, though. And he's done an amazing job. I think. I think he was here last year as one of the disruptors.
- [37:54]
Melissa Lee
Yes, with another company.
- [37:56]
Guy Adami
Congratulations. Yes, with another company. So congratulations here. And if you have that kind of Runway, if you have that cash flow out to 27 with that type of total addressable market. That was a Cowan's note. I mean, this stock actually looks pretty interesting. Interesting here.
- [38:09]
Melissa Lee
All right, coming up, pulling his bets. Why Danny Moses is cashing in on his online gambling trade and the threats that the space is facing next. Plus, stocks within reach of fresh records even as a conflict in the Middle east rages on. How investors are feeling about geopolitical tensions, tariffs and much more. Fast money's back into welcome back to Fast money. Shares are DraftKings up 3% today. The stock up more than 15% this year. Earlier this week, analysts at JP Morgan initiated coverage on the gaming space, giving DraftKings a buy rating. But Danny's got a little less bullish here recently.
- [38:42]
Frank Holland
You know, hard it is for me to find long. So I've been on the show many times talking about these names. So I still like the sector but there's a lot of risks now which have come into play here. And so DraftKings in particular is trading 20 to 23 times EBITDA. Right. It's not that cheap anymore. Several states have raised online gambling taxes here in the last few months. But the most underappreciated thing is that Kalshi has made its way through. And the problem with Kalshi is not that it's so big yet, but the CFTC is turning a blind eye and letting they're in California and Texas now acquiring those customers that have DraftKings and FanDuel wherever to get to. They would cost them a lot to get back. So. And the one thing, the in game live wagering, which is the most profitable part of DraftKings business is being exposed here by Kalshi. So it's not a huge part of the market yet, but it's enough to make my antennas go up and take a little money off the table here. So I still like the macro in the sector. It's still very longs here. I have some longs here, but much less, I would say than I had.
- [39:33]
Danny Moses
Yeah, yeah. Danny's making a compelling point for I think the competitive landscape has been it's always been an issue and it's always been predatory and at some point you had some rationalization within the industry. Now you have different forces and just taking the gaming concept and investment theme, I, I still think that Asia, but Melco and that part of Macao is, is bound to rebound. In other words, this is the last Covid trade not to, to come back and it's just, it's not just a play on China. I think Melco, I'm long that name. I like that one.
- [40:03]
Tim Seymour
Yeah. To your point about calcium, these kind of betting markets, Polymarket Today, this is a competitor. They're raising money at $1 billion valuation. They're backed by Peter Thiel's Founders Fund. They're leading that round today. So it seems like yeah, VC did back, you know, DraftKings and FanDuel and that sort of thing. But they're coming for a different model right now. So it'll be interesting. A lot more competition.
- [40:21]
Frank Holland
I just don't think the strategy of these companies changing the odds on their bets to make it less customer friendly is a sustainable model and that's how they're going to try to offset some of this online gambling tax.
- [40:32]
Guy Adami
Stock's been hanging around though and we're in a four year downtrend. You get a close above 44. That downtrend has been broken. So the fundamentals might be right. The stock might have some momentum to the upside though.
- [40:42]
Melissa Lee
All right, we got a news alert on building products distributor Q Rogers. Got the details. Kate? Hi, Melissa. That's right. Take a look at those shares of Q qxo, the company announcing it intends to make an offering of $2 billion of shares of its common stock. The Stock is down 5.7% on this news.
- [41:02]
Dan Nathan
Remember, this company is currently in a.
- [41:03]
Melissa Lee
Bidding war for materials company GMS against Home Depot. So once again, QXO taking a dive here on this news that it plans to make a $2 billion offering of shares of its common stock. Melissa, back over to you. All right, Kate, thank you. Kate Rogers Interesting. It's going head to head against Home Depot here for Building Supply, which is a more professional, the contractor side of the market.
- [41:25]
Danny Moses
Interesting that Home Depot is going here too because again they're going into distribution. They're going in to essentially compete with some of their players. And I think while pro has been a very defensive part of owning Home Depot, this is a slight strategy change and I'm not sure I love it for Home Depot.
- [41:42]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, investors seeming to shrug off Mideast concerns. Why they're cautiously optimistic about the markets. What they see is the biggest risk heading into the Summer. That is next. More Fast Money into. Welcome back to Fast money. Investors staying cautiously optimistic even with tensions in the Middle east and continued uncertainty over the impact of tariffs. That is according to the latest sentiment survey out of Investor PD Editor in Chief Caleb Silver is here to break down the results. Caleb, always good to see you. We've had you on with these results time and time again. It feels like the investors showing a little bit more apprehension when it comes to the markets.
- [42:17]
Kate Rogers
Finally, more apprehension, but also kind of stuck in the middle. You got skepticism on the left, optimism on the right. They're stuck in the middle here, wondering what should we do but keep investing? 51% say they're not making any changes to their portfolio. 24% are saying they're investing less. So they're kind of stuck buying a lot of the same names that we do see. Some people sort of stepping out with some newer names. They think 51% say the market is overvalued, especially stocks. But you look inside their portfolio, a lot of stocks in there. And the stocks that they've been buying, a lot of new stocks, too.
- [42:48]
Melissa Lee
Yeah. So the old names, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, but also Berkshire Hathaway was interesting to me. OKLO is in Qubit, so they're in quantum computing, too.
- [42:56]
Kate Rogers
Yeah. When you look at their top holdings, they look just like the top of The S&P 500. Right. Like the top of the NASDAQ 100. Except for Berkshire Hathaway, which tells us it's probably an older investor that's held that for a while. The Buffett premium may be fading, but they're still holding it. But we like to look also at what they're buying outside of the 401ks. We like to look at Vander Research for that Aqua, that nuclear power company, super popular qbts, the D Wave Computing company, Quantum Computing company, and then Quantum Computing, also popular with individual investors who've been fading a little bit. The Magnificent Seven lately, but still keep buying. Continue to look for opportunities and are wondering what the next surprise is going to be, because we've had one just about every week.
- [43:33]
Guy Adami
We love when you come on concerns that people have foreign policy. But here's one that you probably haven't seen in a long time. Threats to the Fed's independence showed up. Is that interesting to you? It's interesting to me.
- [43:45]
Kate Rogers
It is. And when we asked them, do you think approve of the way the Fed is handling monetary policy? Over 60% say yes. And this came right out. We started surveying right after the meeting last Week and through the weekend, through this entire conflict. So these are kind of fresh on their mind. They approve of the way Fed chair Powell and the Fed has been doing things lately, even though that's not exactly what you hear down on Pennsylvania Avenue.
- [44:04]
Tim Seymour
All right, Caleb, the emoji meter, it's amazing. One percent, though, is yolo. You know what that is, guy? Yolo.
- [44:10]
Guy Adami
I don't.
- [44:11]
Tim Seymour
Yeah, it's just basically, you're all in on everything.
- [44:15]
Guy Adami
Rolos like a yodel, but you can.
- [44:18]
Kate Rogers
Only have it once.
- [44:19]
Tim Seymour
YOLO is like the most optimistic you can be about stocks. All right, so in the last couple months, we've seen circle ipo, we've seen core weave. These things have gone to the moon. Are you seeing Demand for more IPOs?
- [44:30]
Kate Rogers
Yeah, definitely. And people are looking for more opportunities. Only about 1 in 2010 own crypto. But if you look at what they would buy, and this is Melissa's favorite question with an extra ten grand, that's finally creeping up the list. And when we ask people, what asset classes do you think will perform best under the Trump administration? It's stocks, U.S. stocks, and then it's crypto right underneath that. So it tells you where people think the future is headed.
- [44:50]
Melissa Lee
They still like CDs and high yield savings.
- [44:52]
Tim Seymour
Yeah.
- [44:53]
Kate Rogers
And that's the defense talking to you. But it's not top. Again, people. When you see stocks at the top of the list, you know people are ready to get a little bit more promiscuous. Either buy the dips in their favorite names or buy some of these newer stocks that have sort of crushed the scene in the last couple of years.
- [45:06]
Melissa Lee
Really curious to see what the next survey is going to hold.
- [45:08]
Kate Rogers
Yeah, we'll see what happens between now and then.
- [45:10]
Melissa Lee
Exactly. Whole lot. Caleb, great to see you. Thank you. Caleb Silver, editor in chief of Investopedia. Up next, final trades, final trade time. Tim Seymour.
- [45:22]
Danny Moses
First of all, we've got the intern class. The next Wall Street Titans from Morgan Stanley. Let's give it up for these guys over here. All right, make some noise. Make some noise. Anyway, Danny Moses, great having you. And ultimately, I think airlines have not participated. Delta Airlines is your best of breed.
- [45:36]
Frank Holland
Danny Moses, fico beginning to incorporate buy now, pay later into people's credit scores. I will sell affirm here.
- [45:42]
Melissa Lee
Dan.
- [45:42]
Tim Seymour
Yolo. You only live.
- [45:43]
Guy Adami
Yeah, sure you do.
- [45:45]
Tim Seymour
USO being a little contrarian oil represent Morgan Stanley.
- [45:49]
Guy Adami
You can make noise if you want. I mean, there you go. Let her see.
- [45:54]
Melissa Lee
Thanks for watching Fast. All opinions expressed by the fast money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer on WhatsApp, no one can see or hear your personal messages. Whether it's a voice call message or sending a password to WhatsApp, it's all just this. So whether you're sharing the streaming password in the family chat or trading those late night voice messages that could basically become a podcast, your personal messages stay between you, your friends and your family. No one else, not even us. WhatsApp message privately.