← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
SpaceX Impact On The Rest Of Techy… And Will the Crypto Winter Thaw? 6/16/26
00:43:44
SpaceX continues to make history, shooting up 55% since its debut and overtaking Microsoft as the 4th largest U.S. company by market cap… but at what cost? The traders break down how the overwhelming success of the SpaceX IPO could be taking the oxygen out of chip and software stocks. Plus, could the crypto winter be thawing out? Skybridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci lays out where Bitcoin is heading after hitting $65K. Then, Caterpillar hits an all-time high, and how Netflix’s M&A attempts are weighing on the stock. Fast Money Disclaimer
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- [00:02]
Melissa Lee
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- [00:30]
Edward Jones Financial Advisor
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- [01:02]
Melissa Lee
Live from the NASDAQ marketsite in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Not enough space. Shares of SpaceX continuing to blast off into the stratosphere. But is it sucking all the oxygen out of the room for the other tech stocks? We'll debate that. Plus SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci. The mooch is here, ready to weigh in on crypto's next move, the retail trading frenzy and the surge in popularity for perpetual futures. He'll join us in just a few minutes and and later, Caterpillar's record climb tripping down memory stock lane. And who could be binging a bingeing buy? I should say how Netflix's M&A attempts are weighing on the stock. I'm Melissa Lee. Come to you live from Studio B at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Steve Grasso, Karen Feiderman, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami. We start off with the big swings in Space X. On its third day as a publicly traded company, shares had been up as much as 17% at session highs. But late day selling brings shares back to earth, closing up just 5%. Since listening on the NASDAQ Friday, the stock has gained about 50%, now approaching $2.7 trillion in market value. It has narrowly surpassed Amazon to become the fifth largest public company. But at its best levels, it briefly overtook Microsoft to become the fourth biggest company. Elsewhere in tech. The Nasdaq closed down more than a percent today. Semis, which had been in the lead position of late, were among the biggest decliners. The SMH down nearly 5% following three straight positive sessions. And software unable to get out of its own way The IGV down over a percent for its 10th losing session in 11. So is space X's gain tech's pain or with shares any of the day well off their highs? Is this just a broad tech breather, Guy?
- [02:39]
Steve Grasso
Yeah, I'm not sure it was a Space X thing, but I will. And this is Steve had a great call on the Space X thing. It traded well and post IPO and we can have that conversation. But in terms of what we saw in tech, some of these reversals I think are pretty noteworthy and I'm not sure necessarily it has anything to do with the activity in Space X. But something happened today where you see Micron for example for Crackstaff and he can put up a chart, makes an all time high and it closes significantly lower, honest. Lows of the day on decent amount of volume. I mean that's something you're looking for if you think this thing might be long in the tooth. Now quite candidly we've seen this before, but I'd be remiss if I didn't point it out now.
- [03:17]
Melissa Lee
Yeah, not all of those stocks though. I mean see Seagate, Western Ditch, those are both higher. So there are real pockets here that did okay off the highs of the day, but you know, did okay.
- [03:27]
Dan Nathan
Yeah, I think that's one area, memory and storage where there really is huge capacity constraint right now and they have lots of pricing power. And I think a lot of investors kind of feel that they look into 2027 and they see it going through then. But at some point you have to ask yourself what it discounts. I think what's most interesting, and I agree with Guy, I don't really think it had much to do with Space X here. I think a lot of investors are looking at it and while they might have gotten allocated at 135, they might have had after market orders, they're not buying up at 200. This feels like a bit of a, you know, retail sort of frenzy here. But I don't think fundamentally, you know, Space X is that important to what's going on in the market. I think you want to take it back to the semis away from memory and storage. And if you just look at the range that the SMH has been trading in over the last week and a half, it's 550 to 650. I mean it's doing this at an all time high after it had doubled. Right. Going back to two months or so. So I think this is really what you want to watch here. You just mentioned Micron you know, intel had a difficult day here today. So to me I just think the semis is the story. I know that sounds pretty obvious, but at some point when they break 550, that could be something that really drives the NASDAQ down.
- [04:30]
Guy Adami
I think Quantum is probably having money taken out of there versus the semis, maybe semis overall because there's a lot more money in semis than there is in Quantum. So I do believe it's an atmosphere. Having said that, you have the Russell, the MSCI and also you have the Nasdaq all coming with their inclusions in the next 15 days. So I had thought you were going to get a sell off, maybe 10 days capture that maybe there's a gap between where you could sell the stock, get a little, little bit out of it. To the downside. I think everyone had the same idea. So I think it's not going to happen. I think people are chasing this. The float is so ultra small and then you have these three indices that are adding it. I think this could be a chase, a real dramatic chase.
- [05:15]
Karen Feideman
Space X is small.
- [05:16]
Guy Adami
Yeah. Only 4% of it's available.
- [05:20]
Karen Feideman
Right. But it's still $100 billion. So I don't know. Or more.
- [05:24]
Guy Adami
Well, yeah. So there's 4% of the. When you talk about valuation and then what's.
- [05:29]
Karen Feideman
I know, I know, but still between. You're up to something trillion.
- [05:32]
Guy Adami
Yes. So yeah, but you also have. You also. Okay, yeah, but what's available? And then the 4% of what's available, I think that becomes the caveat.
- [05:41]
Karen Feideman
Okay.
- [05:42]
Guy Adami
So I don't think you that much that's really available and that's why you've seen the squeeze. And then you're going to have anywhere from 20 to 40 billion in the hands of the indices. And that's a passive investor who doesn't stop buying. Right. So every time the stock moves up or moves down, they have to recalculate it. And every time somebody buys the qs they have to buy Space X. It's an annuity at this point.
- [06:04]
Melissa Lee
So what do you think of the action?
- [06:06]
Karen Feideman
So what I thought was sort of interesting was that oil is telling you the Iran conflict is over.
- [06:11]
Melissa Lee
Yeah.
- [06:12]
Karen Feideman
And the rest of the market is telling you we're not buying it. I think so. You know, you had retail not doing particularly well. We talk a lot about energy. Energy did pretty well considering the last two days. How much oil has been down that space has really not. I mean as far, far outperformed. That was really interesting to me. This sort of, you know, very different takes on the same, the same story, the same news. So that stood out to me sort of more than anything else. I think this basic things, it really is interesting. I just, you know, I find it eclipsing Microsoft and Amazon briefly kind of, I don't know, ridiculous maybe sort of to me that, you know, this is all. He's proven to be a genius over time and create incredible, incredible things. We're just not there at the moment in terms of valuation to approach that.
- [07:03]
Melissa Lee
But, but as you know, the stock is not trading on any sort of fundamental story. It is trading on a hope in a dream.
- [07:11]
Karen Feideman
Hope in a dream and, and a
- [07:13]
Guy Adami
structural and I totally mechanical buying.
- [07:16]
Karen Feideman
Everybody knows about the index inclusion. It did make me remember Tesla, which was, I think it was during the pandemic when Tesla was added.
- [07:23]
Melissa Lee
Right.
- [07:24]
Karen Feideman
And Tesla traded up 20 bucks. Like to, I forget the number. 20 bucks over where it was trading and then immediately traded down. So it was definitely a, you know, buy the index news, sell by the index rumor. Sell the news. It's not a rumor, it's true. I think we could see that as well. But I don't know, I thought to me that I do think we're going to have more volatility to come because I do think the Iran thing isn't settled yet. I know it's not as big an issue as it was two months ago, but I still think there's more downside.
- [07:55]
Melissa Lee
And the cracks in the semiconductor trade, which had been sort of the poster child of the scarcity trade for AI, Right. Overall, I mean, more so the memory stocks, but overall semiconductors, that's. That's being questioned. IGV is completely questioned. Being down 10 of 11 sessions.
- [08:11]
Dan Nathan
Yeah, no doubt. I mean, there is a long way from the crack to the break, Mel. And when you think of a great
- [08:15]
Steve Grasso
song by Mumford and see that.
- [08:17]
Dan Nathan
Okay, I'm just. We did that once before. It's not interesting. You know, I think you can put all the cracks together. You start thinking about it piece by piece. But it really hasn't been a great way to invest or take the other side of this market. You know, going back at least a year or so. When I think about igv, which you just mentioned. So something happened today. I don't know if they mentioned it all day on CNBC. Did you see that Salesforce bought an AI customer service agent company for $3.6 billion. Now normally you'd say that's a big acquisition. Here's a company that's trading at multi year lows. This is Salesforce. They're paying a very high price for this. Right. The company is also, you know, guys mentioned many times, I think was 2/4 ago they said they're going to buy $50 billion of their stock back. Right. So they're making acquisitions, they're trying to buy their stock back. They're trying to tell a story about how they're using agents. This is almost, I mean is this a white flag a little bit about agent what they've been talking about that they have to go out and pay a huge price for something that's probably worth far less than what they just paid for? Possibly. So might we start seeing and I want to come forced acquisitions by these companies whose stocks are not being appreciated whatsoever. So again I think you could see a bunch of acquisitions, smaller software acquisitions. And the other thing is, you know, Space X goes public, they have a $2.5 trillion market cap. What do they do? They exercise an option to buy a company for $60 billion. This is cursor. This is insanity.
- [09:34]
Karen Feideman
That before that.
- [09:35]
Dan Nathan
No, no, exercise the option. Okay, so they didn't have to do that and they have the option. Right. So my point is it's like all right, you go public and four days later, you know, you have this massive valuation. Then you go buy that thing that you couldn't really buy before when you're in the private markets. So a lot of funky stuff is going on right now.
- [09:50]
Steve Grasso
The lockup period is going to be. I was at August 11th. You probably have it in front of you because I know you have the dates. I mean that's when things get really interesting. We'll see how much comes to the market. Then we can start having a conversation. From now until then, you know, the machinations of the market take over. You have options in, you have people buying weekly 300 hour calls. It seems all absurd but you know, the gamification of the market is in full effect. Karen's point is spot on. I think you know, the energy market is telling you one thing. The rest of the market may be something else. I will say again, I get why crude oil is lower. It makes sense. I don't think the energy stocks have traded all that poorly actually close unchanged on a day. Ish. It's down I think maybe 15%. I'm doing back the envelope math off its all time high. That's not catastrophic in my opinion.
- [10:34]
Melissa Lee
Excellent. Got an upgrade today by the way, but bank of America, which is interesting. Meantime oil as you've been mentioning under pressure, WTI falling to as low as $77 a barrel today as the deal with Iran could put more crude on the market. Here to take us inside today's back and forth at the G7 is Megan Casella, live from Geneva. Megan
- [10:52]
Melissa, President Trump has now wrapped up his second day here at the G7. He sat down today with some Middle Eastern leaders sitting down bilaterally with the heads of the UAE and Qatar. There was a full G lunch with some Middle Eastern leaders as well. And President Trump, as he's been here now two full days, he's getting somewhat of a warmer reception, I would say, than at least what many advisers I had spoken to before this had expected. And that's because he's coming in here with at least the framework of a deal with Iran in hand. Now they're winding down tensions and reopening the Strait. But we also know that leaders are still pushing the President for more details here. They want to see more from him on the permanent end to hostilities. We know that while we haven't seen the text, these G7 leaders also have not seen the text. And we have new reporting now from our colleagues at Ms. Now that Israel, the US Partner in this war, has also not yet seen the text of this memorandum of understanding. We can also say there is more focus now at the G7 on what's not in this deal. We've learned more about what's in it, but also more about what's not in it. And that's any specifics on what Iran will have to do on its nuclear program. There's nothing in there, for example, on how Iran will dispose of its nuclear material. There's nothing on ending future Iranian uranium enrichment. There's nothing on dismantling nuclear facilities or on inspecting and monitoring of sites. All of that being pushed down the road. Melissa to be negotiated in this 60 day period. So clearly pushing all of the hardest issues down the road. I'll also say President Trump is set to have a press conference in Evian, France, tomorrow at the close of the G7. That's set for the 9am Eastern hour. We could get some more details on all of this at that point.
- [12:25]
MELISSA Are we clear that the Strait of Hormuz is actually open? MEGHAN
- [12:32]
We've heard a few mixed things on that. What we can say for sure is that Trump administration officials are promising that it's opening immediately, but they're acknowledging that it will take some time for traffic to get back up to pre war levels, that they're starting the work now including with some of their partners here, the UK And France among them to demine the strait and to get things back up to pre war levels. But it's going to take some time. What we don't know though is what things look like after 60 days. It appears that Iran has only agreed to reopen that strait and not to charge tolls and not to be firing on commercial ships just for the next 60 day period. We've heard some mixed things about what happens after that. President Trump says that tolls will not be charged at the end of that 60 day period. Vice President Vance, though told us that it hasn't yet been negotiated. Yes, the US Stance remains that it'll be toll free, but they still have to work that out with the Iranians. So you. Yes, for now it's starting to get reopened. It'll take some time to get there and we don't know what happens after 60 days. And as you know, Melissa, the more uncertainty there is around this and because of course there's no long term resolution, there's plenty of uncertainty, that means it's just going to take that much longer for traffic to start picking back up.
- [13:35]
Yeah. Megan, thank you. Megan Casella in Geneva for us, it is amazing that oil has dropped as much as it has dropped given all the uncertainties surrounding this deal.
- [13:45]
Steve Grasso
That's the commodities market, right. Stairs up, elevator down. You're seeing the elevator portion. I will say to those who care. Oil traded down to the 200 day moving average today for the first time in quite some time and seemingly held now. Tomorrow's another day, I get it. But this is an actually pretty interesting level given the backdrop that we find ourselves in.
- [14:01]
Melissa Lee
If we see oil prices remain where they are. We've already seen industrials, for instance, do quite well, particularly in response to the drop in oil prices, which actually the drop started back in May in like mid May. Oil prices have been slowly taking lower and lower and lower. Is that going to be good for consumer stocks, which you said haven't.
- [14:19]
Karen Feideman
I know. I would think they would have responded better to this. Right. One of the things that made consumer stocks do so poorly was the idea of all right, people are really feeling it at the pump as well as the uncertainty about the war in a war that had ongoing hostilities at the time, no longer really, but I hope so. I think so. I think if I were a retailer probably I would still hang on to conservative estimates because why not?
- [14:43]
Melissa Lee
You can.
- [14:44]
Karen Feideman
Yes.
- [14:44]
Melissa Lee
Yep. Let's turn out to the Fed. The clock is ticking to new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's first decision on interest rates. Our next guest expects the committee to take a neutral policy stance with no rate cuts for the rest of the year. Let's bring in Soc. Gen Subhadra Japa. She associates General's head of research. Subhadra, great to have you with us.
- [15:01]
Subhadra Japa
Thank you for having me.
- [15:02]
Melissa Lee
What do you, what do you think Kevin Warsh is going to do right out of the gate? Do you think he puts a dot on the dot plot? I mean, the thing that he doesn't like, I mean, how will things seem different tomorrow, do you think?
- [15:14]
Subhadra Japa
Well, the dot plot, whether he puts a dot on the dot plot is still unquestioned. I think that you'll get the submissions from all of the rest of the committee. It'll also be interesting to see if his press conference is short or much shorter than what it was in prior years or if he changes the whole communication strategy to not have press conferences at every meeting. So there's just a lot of things that he can change and he's shown us a willingness to want to change
- [15:41]
Melissa Lee
things in terms of the backdrop of the war and now with the framework of a peace deal and the drop that we've, we were just talking about drop in oil prices, does that change how you think about what the Fed will do or say?
- [15:54]
Subhadra Japa
Yeah, I think that Kevin Walsh is in a sweet spot. He can point to the dramatic decline in oil prices. He can point to interest rates starting to drift lower. So the risk sentiment has also improved quite dramatically. So that gives him a lot of leeway to really keep policy on hold if he wants, for the foreseeable future, at least for, you know, all of, perhaps all of this year, next year, which is our call. So I think that, you know, the, the fact that risky assets are doing as well as they are really sets up for the, for the Fed to, you know, to hold sort of a neutral stance. For the remainder of the year.
- [16:31]
Guy Adami
His focus has been the balance sheet, what possibilities and how much time have you given what the possibilities he can do something around the edges on the balance sheet because right now consensus isn't with him to be cutting rates. So maybe that's the first thing that he affects change in is the balance sheet. What have you thought about what he could possibly do with that before he even starts building consensus as far as rates?
- [16:53]
Subhadra Japa
Yeah. So his, his expectation is to want to bring down the size of the balance sheet. I don't think he does anything on the balance sheet for a while because the amount of reserves in the system is dictated by the regulatory regime. And for now the reserves in the system are a little over 3 trillion. So I think that they probably don't really act on balance sheet until there's some changes on the regulatory side. And I don't think that the changes in the regulatory side are forthcoming.
- [17:24]
Dan Nathan
You know, with the S and P just off about 11 1/2% from its all time highs. Guy likes to use this expression like the stock market's a discounting mechanism. What would you say the market is discounting right here given all the uncertainty that you know, we've seen, obviously geopolitical. But you just described, you know, we don't know what Kevin was going to say and how that's going to shake out. And we have seen some periods of volatility in the stock market when we've had a Fed. Well, it's just been Jerome Powell kind of have slight, even slight shifts as it relates to what they think policy is going to be.
- [17:54]
Subhadra Japa
I think the most important message the market is going to want to hear tomorrow is that the Fed is not looking to hike rates. I think broadly speaking the market is pricing it for one hike for the next six to eight months. To me that's more of a risk scenario than a base case scenario for the, for the, for the Fed. So if he sounds like he's willing to keep policy on hold given the fact that inflation is somewhat sticky, that would be good news for the markets. I don't see him pivoting on the dovish side either because it'll be a little too premature for him to show his hands, especially at a time when inflation is, is somewhat sticking in and potentially rising into quote PC for next week.
- [18:34]
Steve Grasso
When crude oil was going higher, the yen was weakening. It made sense. Crude oil is going lower, the yen continues to weaken, which doesn't make a lot of sense. Now north of 160 against the bond market there that continues to sort of sell off. Is that a concern? Forget about Kevin Wash. Is that a concern that you might have right now?
- [18:51]
Subhadra Japa
So 160 has been a level that everybody's watching. I think that the BOJ is probably on track to raise rates maybe by four 25 basis point hikes over the next year. And you know, the bank of Japan with this intervention has been able to keep its currency in check. So I think for the most part I don't really see the potential for a lot of volatility in currencies in general for the, for the remainder of the year, whether it be the yen or the dollar.
- [19:23]
Melissa Lee
Subadra, great to see you. Thank you for coming. By Seba Japa Stockton and do not miss our coverage of Kevin Wash, his first Fed decision tomorrow live from Washington starting at 1:00pm Eastern Time. Coming up, Caterpillar keeps climbing the fresh record high for the equipment giant and the next move for the industrial sector. Plus memory stock mayhem. The big move higher over the past week and if there's more room to run, don't go anywhere. Fast money's back into.
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back to Fast Money Shares A Caterpillar jumping more than 2% today and hitting a fresh record high. The equipment giant continuing its strong year, up nearly 70% since January and helping lead the industrial sector over the last year. XLI also outperforming the broader markets so far this year as well. And of course this is also getting a boost from AI. So it's it is adjacent. But how do you feel about the likes of Caterpillar?
- [21:40]
Karen Feideman
The likes? Well, my most like Caterpillar is United Rentals. It's you know, part of the same story. Slightly off its highs though Caterpillar has outperformed, you know, GE Vernova's off its high a number of them, Quanta Services, they own all. Also a little bit off its highs but having a tremendous year, I think. You know, if one were to believe the space X story, are we going to move all of that into space starting in 2030, which I don't know, who knows, I guess that's the expiration for the story then possibly somewhat before then. But in the meantime though, they have years of work ahead of them, I think. And I think oil coming down is good. So I like United Rentals. I'm long it is not cheap though. It used to be cheap, but it is not cheap anymore. It deserves where it is not much more given what's going on, I think, I don't know, I feel like it's. If I own none, I'd buy some, but I already own a lot.
- [22:38]
Guy Adami
In large part they were rerated because of the AI and the capex spend. To Karen's point, if forget about space, the space is long off. I agree with Karen wholeheartedly. But if capex spend comes in at all, AI story gets disrupted at all the valuation on this, it could be a bloodbath. So if you do own it, I would take some profits. I mean just look at the P E ratio on this. It's expensive to itself and it usually does not hold these levels. But you've been, you've reaped the. This is exactly why you played it. This is exactly when you should get out.
- [23:12]
Steve Grasso
You know, the pushback on that is Catapult came out. They said they're targeting $35 for earnings in their investor day. And then you start doing back the envelope and given that earnings growth, I mean you're talking about maybe 35% earnings growth. I mean it's not ridiculous in this environment. So despite the $900 price tag, I don't think it's all that expensive. I think they report in early August.
- [23:34]
Melissa Lee
It is interesting, Karen's notion about if you believe in space, then you know what stories will be capped by all this stuff moving, you know, to Mars.
- [23:44]
Dan Nathan
I just think that, you know, bringing things down to Earth for a second here, you know, just think about how much it costs to go around the moon with this Artemis. Just think about how difficult it was to do the thing that we supposedly did guys back in.
- [23:55]
Steve Grasso
Of course you said that don't drag me.
- [23:59]
Dan Nathan
Supposedly did with the technology that all
- [24:01]
Oliver Renick
the time where Do I say this?
- [24:03]
Melissa Lee
Are you constant whenever the moon is mentioned?
- [24:06]
Karen Feideman
Let me just say one thing Elon. If you look the most impressive, one of the most impressive things was how much they've gotten cost down right by 90 some odd percent.
- [24:16]
Dan Nathan
Well, let's see. I mean like he's a big contractor to the guy, you know, I mean like listen, Artemis is there, he did an amazing thing, thing. My only point is like if you're buying, you know, space X right now for data centers in space, you better have a very long time horizon. He will do it. If he says he's going to do
- [24:30]
Guy Adami
it, you do, you do have Starlink and you do have cursor as of today, which cursor changes the math dramatically. And I think that's why you saw the stock run as well. So I think, I think to your point, the data centers in space could be optimists. That or full self drive, something he's striving for while the others do the heavy lifting.
- [24:48]
Steve Grasso
Remember Billy Bob Thornton said we have
- [24:50]
Dan Nathan
better rockets than the coyote.
- [24:51]
Anthony Scaramucci
Remember that?
- [24:51]
Dan Nathan
All time.
- [24:52]
Steve Grasso
Again, it's a great movie. You know, you didn't see Armageddon.
- [24:55]
Dan Nathan
How did you not get movie?
- [24:57]
Karen Feideman
She was out singing. Michael performing.
- [25:00]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, big moves from memory stocks over the past week. But some of these names saw a sharp reversal from records today. The stocks tripping down memory lane next. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ markets at in Times Square. Back right after this.
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Guy Adami
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Guy Adami
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- [26:06]
Melissa Lee
welcome back to Fast Money. The memory madness continues with data storage stocks all on the move. Sandisk, Micron, Western Digital and Seagate all popping early in the day before selling off Western Digital and Seagate. However, end of the day in green. Despite their midday sell off, both are still up double digits in just one week. You're mentioning on the call you mentioned the what looked like an outside reversal on Micron, but the volume wasn't there.
- [26:29]
Steve Grasso
Volumes not there. But you still have technically it still happened and look, label me somebody that completely missed this because I'm somebody that grew up that these are highly cyclical, highly commoditized companies. Without question. People argue it's way different this time. You're missing something about it, clearly. I am. I will say this though, the wrong time historically to buy these stocks when they're at their cheapest in terms of valuation. They are cheap if you believe competition is coming or if they've been double triple ordering or if somehow magically this whole Capex X thing, which Steve mentioned, falls or waivers even a little bit. These stocks go down a lot faster than you think. And just go back to March and look at the Micron quarter. They reported stock was trading at an all time high. It was a ridiculous quarter. The stock proceeded to go down about 35% over the course of eight days. That's a glimpse of what could happen here.
- [27:18]
Melissa Lee
I talked to the most bearish analysts on the street at Susquehanna about these names specifically and he singled out the hard disk drive maker. So the Seagate and the Western Digitals being more sort of dangerous at this point in terms of the run because they are going to add capacity and prices are going to drop. And so that's going to be a problem that he sees. Whereas he likes the Microns and the sandisk.
- [27:39]
Guy Adami
So I would think that affects the Microns and the Sandisk and the SK Hynix and the Samsung. I think it affects the whole complex. But I'm with Guy. The boom bust cycle in this in memory is something that you really have to be wary of. But I was in Micron and out of Micron, but I caught this much, this much of this type of move. I wouldn't be in it now, but I've been wrong for the last $300.
- [28:02]
Melissa Lee
All right, coming up, Crypto Space X Mania and perpetual futures. SkyBridge Capital's Anthony Scar is here in the house to dig into all the market trends making waves and what he sees in store for it all. He doesn't look like that picture, by the way. He will join us next in Fast Money Return.
- [28:22]
Dan Nathan
Missed a moment of fast. Catch us anytime on the Go Follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.
- [28:37]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money Stocks closing mix. Today, the Dow climbing more than 300 points, closing at a record high. The S and P falling half a percent. The NASDAQ dropping more than a percent. Market exchanges like the CBO and CME getting hit today. CFTC chair Michael Selig joining, joining us last night and defending the agency's decision to approve perpetual futures for crypto, which are futures contracts with no expiration date that allow traders to speculate on price without owning the underlying asset. Well, our next guest is a major supporter of perpetual futures. Anthony Scaramucci is a founder and managing partner at SkyBridge Capital. Anthony, great to see you.
- [29:10]
Steve Grasso
Can we, I mean we clap them in.
- [29:13]
Anthony Scaramucci
I am so happy to be here.
- [29:15]
Melissa Lee
It's great to have you back here on the deck. You used to sit here for the entire show and be a trigger.
- [29:20]
Anthony Scaramucci
I even brought my mom to this.
- [29:22]
Melissa Lee
Exactly.
- [29:23]
Anthony Scaramucci
With Oliver Stone. Yes, yes.
- [29:26]
Melissa Lee
Wall Street.
- [29:26]
Anthony Scaramucci
To fun.
- [29:28]
Melissa Lee
Perpetual futures. Why? Why are you proponent?
- [29:32]
Anthony Scaramucci
Well, it's like everything in life, you have to accept what's coming whether you like it or not. Are there elements of perpetual futures I do not like? Yes, of course, like we go over those, but they're here, the technology is here to have them. We're using them in the cryptocurrency markets for at least a decade and people are going to use them. And so I feel that we should get them in place and we should regulate them propitiously as opposed to debate whether or not they're going to happen. And so that's the sort of real politic, realist side of my personality.
- [30:04]
Melissa Lee
Is it, is it a product that Skybridge employs?
- [30:08]
Anthony Scaramucci
So we have used perpetual futures in the crypto markets and we have traded 24,7. I think we've used the hype system as an indication for something like Space X where you could get sort of a look into what the IPO post trading activity was going to look like. But we haven't used it on the stock and bond side yet with any material. Just haven't done it.
- [30:31]
Steve Grasso
Let's go to Bitcoin because you've been an enthusiast, you've been right for a long time and you've seen moves like this in Bitcoin before from peak to trough. But it's. What's different in my opinion is the bullseye on Microsoft strategies back in the terms of their holdings in their average price. Where do you sort of start to get concerned when you can see the predatory nature of the market start to kick in?
- [30:52]
Anthony Scaramucci
Well, I mean, listen, I'm concerned. I've been humbled by life and I've been humbled by markets. A lot has happened to me since the last time I showed up on this desk. So I say this with great humility that Bitcoin has gone through in my lifetime as an investor with Bitcoin for your cycles. And so what's going on right now is very consistent with the four year cycle cycle and just hitting more or less a few months after the having cycle. So we'll have another having guy roughly in April of 2028, but prior to that, about nine months prior to that, you'll start to see the recovery in bitcoin. So I think bitcoin starts a rally late in the fourth quarter of 2026 into early 2027. And this has been a shallow cycle for bitcoin. Bitcoin usually goes down between 60 and 70% from its high. It's down roughly 50. There's a lot of traditionalists to say, wow, there's more to go here on bitcoin. But I think we've been buffered by the institutional buying at the ETF level and the broader retail buying a bitcoin at the ETF level.
- [31:57]
Guy Adami
So.
- [31:57]
Anthony Scaramucci
So, you know, is Michael in trouble? He's definitely not in trouble. He has a fortress balance sheet. You have to really understand the mechanisms of the balance sheet to understand that bitcoin can go a lot lower. And he's virtually not in trouble. He also bought back some of these converts recently, which takes that piece of it off the table. That was something he was probably a little bit worried about. He's got a very deep capital pool that he can access and he's still trading. You know, you can go to the strategy app and you look at his M Nav in terms of what the price of the stock is relative to the value of his bitcoin. He's still trading at a 1.2, 1.3 NAV, which gives him the necessary arbitrage for people to get comfortable with that trade. So I like it. I like him. I think he's going to be right. And we're at the point in the cycle where the RSI is at an all time low for bitcoin. The apathy is, is there? No one cares about it anymore. If you look at Google searches, they're way, way down. You and I have been doing this a long time, guys. My 38th year as an investor, when you have RSI where it is, apathy where it is, and it's a thin market. Remember, bitcoin is only the size now of Micron technology. Just look at the overall market capitalization of bitcoin and a tiny bit of demand for bitcoin moves the price that happened this week 61 to 65. It got to 67, it backed off. So I still like it. I own a lot of it. So I am talking my book Is want to make sure I'm very clear with everybody on that. But I think it's right there where you would expect it to be in the four year cycle.
- [33:33]
Dan Nathan
It doesn't that make the case? You just said a thin market. Right. When you talk about perpetual futures versus let's say the CME just listed micros that trade 247 and you think about the liquidity that you have on the weekends. I mean some of the stuff that's gone on on hyper liquid, it's really volatile. It might not be indicative of what's going on. And I'm just wondering when you think about what the CME is offering and they were the first ones to obviously look list futures going back to 2017. I just can't get my arms around why you would trade perpetual futures. And I get it, they don't have expiration versus what goes on in the cme.
- [34:06]
Anthony Scaramucci
Well, I think you're making Terry's case. I mean I think you're making Kerry's case. I would say to you in a normative society in a world of ought and shoulds that that's the right approach and that's the right thinking but that's not the world we're living in. And it's the same thing with AI. I don't like AI. We're going to turn ourselves into robots or we're going to end up in the Terminator movie. You can make that suggestion. But you know what? There's going to be people, it's an 8 billion person planet that are going to have AI. I would rather have us involved with it and see if we can get some checks and balances and control on it. So it'd be the same thing in the perpetual futures market. I think Terry's made a compelling case exactly like yours and I, and I agree with it. But I guess I'm at an age in my life where I'm looking at things saying okay, this is going to happen whether I like it or not. And so how do I get my arms around it? How do we regulate it properly? You made the case for me not using it because Melissa asked me if I was going to use it myself. I said no. But I do think it does provide some indication of what's going on in the markets when the markets return to normal trading, you know, sort of 9:30 to 4:00 clock and guys it's coming whether we like it or not. And so let's embrace it and let's try to get our arms around it and let's try to get people like Terry as comfortable with it as possible.
- [35:23]
Karen Feideman
So first, great to have you here in person. Super fun.
- [35:26]
Anthony Scaramucci
Thanks, Karen. It's good to be here.
- [35:27]
Karen Feideman
So I've been in bitcoin for a long, long time.
- [35:29]
Anthony Scaramucci
You mean Melissa are all taking the same youth serum. I can't switch those other people. It's working for us, Karen.
- [35:35]
Karen Feideman
So one of the things that I liked about it was potential devaluation of the, the dollar as we just become more and more indebted. And actually, I think, you know, the dollar sort of bottomed, I don't know, year or so ago that. Do you. How much do you think that reversal of the dollar has played into the heaviness of bitcoin or how much of it is the Clarity Act?
- [35:57]
Anthony Scaramucci
Yeah, well, listen, remember we came in, if you, if you had brought me on in November, you said, how do we look for rates this year? I would have looked at you and said, well, the consensus is going to get three rate cuts, 75 basis points down in rates. It now looks like +25. We saw what the bank of Japan did this week. And so you have 100 basis point differential in expectation from where we were at the beginning of the year to where we are right now. I think that had a huge impact on the dollar and had a huge impact on bitcoin. The Clarity Act I think, is a big issue as well because I would have said to you, I would have gotten this wrong again. I would have said the Clarity act would have been passed in 25 and it didn't. And it's now lagging into 26. If it doesn't pass in July, I think it's going to be very hard to get it passed prior to the midterms. And so that's going to be a whole other fight. And older Democrats, okay, Democrats in the House that are above the age of 60, they don't like it. Ask Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders what they think about bitcoin. They're like forming anti crypto armies and so forth. So we got to get it passed now. I think it's a big drag. By the way, if you get that passed, and I do, I'm better than 50% on that one. I think it gets passed. If you get it passed, I think you, you've paved the way for a lot more innovation, a lot more activity on the blockchain. And listen, I show you think about this. We have to envision the future. It's again, like perpetual futures. It's going to happen there Wasn't one taxicab commission, one mayor that wanted Uber. But you know who wanted Uber? The people wanted Uber and the people got it. Okay. And so that's what's going on right now. There's a tug of war between the old world and the new world. And I should be for the old world, but I'm not. I'm actually for the new world because that's where my kids are going to be living.
- [37:45]
Melissa Lee
Are you at all worried? Not worried, but, you know, thinking that maybe the volume in actual bitcoin trading will go down because of the ability for people to bet in perpetual futures or in other ways where they don't have to own the underlying. Yeah. And that will just lead to an extended crypto winter for bitcoin.
- [38:04]
Anthony Scaramucci
Really good point. People are saying, well, that's sort of like a paper bitcoin or a creation of additional supply of bitcoin. It's not clear to me. I don't buy that theory. I believe bitcoin is either going to transition and be adopted as a store of value asset and a result of which people are going to look around and say, okay, I'll have a 1 or 2, 3% position in Bitcoin like I do with gold. I'll accept it as a store of value asset. Or it won't be and I'll have to come on and you guys can throw eggs at me or, or dunk me or something like that. I say, geez, I really got that wrong. I thought that the technical capabilities of bitcoin and the way bitcoin is set up, if you look at the history of money, Melissa, it does look like a really good mousetrap for money and storage of value. And if we don't adopt it, then I'll have to eat crow on it. But I do believe that if gold is a $25 trillion asset, roughly, could Bitcoin get to a $10 trillion asset? I believe that that's possible. Again, it may not be the people at this table. There's a 25, 30 year old new money manager right now that in 10 years is going to be 3545. He's going to want to own bitcoin or she's going to want to own it because she's more comfortable with it. And that's where I think things are going. And it's hard to see the future today. But if we were, when we started fast money, the computers didn't look like this, right? How old is fast money?
- [39:28]
Oliver Renick
We'll be 20 years, if we make it to January.
- [39:30]
Anthony Scaramucci
So if you make it to January, be 20 years old. So I just want you to imagine if I came to you from 2026 and went back 20 years, I said, look at what happened in the world comparatively. Look at what happened to the gross.
- [39:44]
Melissa Lee
And during the whole arc of fast money, we were on Bitcoin from the beginning.
- [39:48]
Anthony Scaramucci
Remember that? Yeah.
- [39:50]
Melissa Lee
Ethereum, like all these, you know, cryptos that nobody had ever heard of before.
- [39:53]
Anthony Scaramucci
And we're here that talking to you about Bitcoin at 600.
- [39:57]
Melissa Lee
Yes.
- [39:58]
Anthony Scaramucci
And I looked into the camera, I said, I don't understand it. And I said, caveat emptor. And then because of my smugness and my arrogance, I put that out on Twitter. Okay. I just let everybody know. So at 600, I missed it. When it got to 2000, I missed it. When the Winklevoss's came to salt. When you were also there hosting salt with us, I think it was 1800, I missed it. Okay. And then by the time I got to the understanding of it, I bought my first bitcoin at 6,000. So I missed the move from 600 to 6,000. And so you were right.
- [40:36]
Melissa Lee
But in terms of where we are now, you can make the argument that everything that you wanted for bitcoin to go higher is here. I mean, you have institutional adoption now of bitcoin more. You have bitcoin on balance sheets of companies.
- [40:50]
Anthony Scaramucci
You have. Karen's point is the big one. Melissa, what Karen is saying, if you get the Clarity act and you get definition on stablecoins and you get eventually the tokenization of real world assets and you get a bitcoin custodial account at a money center bank without the money center bank taking a capital charge or an equity charge to their balance sheet. I think it's very transformative. I think you've then opened the gateway for bitcoin. Morgan Stanley got there perhaps ahead of other people in terms of the warehouses. But if the Clarity act passes, how are you going to be in wealth management without having bitcoin as one of the potential weapons in your overall portfolio management? So I think that's the rate limiting step. So you're right. We've gotten up almost everything up until now. If we get that and bitcoin trades to 40,000, then, you know, you can invite me back. We'll have a dunking session.
- [41:46]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back anytime, Anthony.
- [41:47]
Anthony Scaramucci
I would like to come back and I'm going to try. I'm going to wear the guy Adami out.
- [41:51]
Dan Nathan
I mean, he's Going skiing later with that vest?
- [41:54]
Anthony Scaramucci
No, I actually forgot that I was coming back. Embarrassing.
- [42:00]
Melissa Lee
Good to see you, Anthony.
- [42:01]
Anthony Scaramucci
Although I don't have the Barack Obama sports jacket on next time.
- [42:05]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, the launch of Space X options contracts going live today as shares continue to blast higher. The nitty gritty from the options pits. Next Fast Money's back into. Welcome Back to Fast Money. Space SpaceX's third day of trading and its third day of gains shares up another 5%. It's rallied nearly 50% since its record debut on Friday. And today up options for the stock officially opened. Our Oliver Renick is at the C Boat in Chicago with more. Oliver.
- [42:38]
Oliver Renick
Hey, Melissa. Options offered a more nuanced look at Space X stock. Though today the message was still largely one of bullish enthusiasm with more calls trading than puts and 1 1/2 billion dollars of the total 2.6 billion in premium tied to calls. 7 out of the top 10 most popular trades by the closing bell were calls. The most popular was the 220 strike call expiring Thursday, which traded about 65,000 times and needs an 11% rally the next two days to break even. The most popular put contract was the 200 strike put expiring Thursday, which saw some big money traders involved. Implied volatility in SpaceX ended at 115, which would make it the most volatile stock in the NASDAQ 100. And for an idea of what that means, options math takes you to an implied one month move of roughly $66, meaning we could easily see SpaceX as low as 136 or as high as 268 by mid July.
- [43:37]
Guy Adami
Melissa.
- [43:38]
Melissa Lee
Oliver, thanks, Oliver Renick. Let's now bring in CNBC contributor Mike Koh. So Mike, what did you make of the action and are you tempted to put a trade on?
- [43:47]
Steve Grasso
Am I tempted to put a trade?
- [43:48]
Guy Adami
Well, I saw two big trades, one which interested me. The other one is just interesting.
- [43:53]
Steve Grasso
I saw somebody putting on a SEP
- [43:55]
Guy Adami
205, 225 collar, selling the 225 calls
- [43:58]
Steve Grasso
to buy the 205 puts.
- [43:59]
Guy Adami
That was against about 7,500 contracts. So 750,000 shares of stock worth. So that's a hedge basically selling upside
- [44:07]
Steve Grasso
calls, buying downside puts.
- [44:08]
Guy Adami
But the one outlay of premium was the July three, 25 calls. Somebody paid seven bucks for 7,000 of those, $490,000 in premium to bet that SpaceX goes up by more than 50% over the course of the next month. Kind of like the Rockets themselves, I guess. But that One's not for me.
- [44:30]
Melissa Lee
Were you watching this, Karen? Are you tempted to edge in some way or.
- [44:34]
Karen Feideman
I mean, no, it's fascinating. I think there's some crazy stuff going on. You think, wow, I can't believe that things are trading the way they are. The straddle, which we talked about, I'd even look at the July, but the June, which dance, it was like 25. I actually there's no way I would sell that. I would be a buyer if I had to be. But one month at 60 some odd dollars is.
- [44:54]
Dan Nathan
Yeah, that's, that's a little nuts. And it's probably going to move that way in either direction. You know, we were just talking about this. You know, Nvidia and SpaceX, very similar price stocks, not market cap, but they trade the same amount of volume in the options market today, which is pretty astounding when you think about it. Just shows this frenzy for folks to get some exposure to the, to the stock.
- [45:15]
Melissa Lee
MIKE co. Thank you. Up next, final trades. Time for the trade. Let's go around the horn. Stephen.
- [45:30]
Guy Adami
If oil continues on its downward path, you got to buy the cruise lines, you got to buy the airlines. I'm going with Delta.
- [45:36]
Melissa Lee
Karen.
- [45:37]
Karen Feideman
Yes, it's rather terrestrial relative to other things, but Amazon, I like it for both sides of the business.
- [45:44]
Melissa Lee
Dan.
- [45:45]
Dan Nathan
It is important to remember that markets, gravity, it's something that exists in them too. And I think the reversal in the 70s today after making an all time high was definitely pretty interesting. And I think it's going to be one step forward, two step back in the 70s, I think so.
- [45:57]
Steve Grasso
You mentioned Anthony. Doesn't look like he looked in the
- [46:00]
Melissa Lee
picture because he was wearing a vest. He was very casual today, much younger.
- [46:05]
Steve Grasso
He's a handsome man. I think we can all see Anthony. I love Anthony. Can I just say that I love Anthony? Am I allowed to say that? Well, you just.
- [46:12]
Dan Nathan
We all love.
- [46:13]
Steve Grasso
I also love gdx.
- [46:15]
Melissa Lee
Thanks for watching Fast Money Mad Money with Jim Crane Research. Right now,
- [46:22]
Edward Jones Financial Advisor
all opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable. But neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer Thursday, July 16
- [46:55]
Dan Nathan
CNBC Sport and Boardroom join Fanatics Fest 4 game plan groundbreaking ideas shaping the future of sports and entertainment. Request your invite@cnbc events.com gameplan.