State Of The Consumer Ahead Of Black Friday… And Markets Into Year End 11/27/24

Summary

CNBC's "Fast Money" Podcast Summary Episode: State Of The Consumer Ahead Of Black Friday… And Markets Into Year End
Release Date: November 27, 2024
Host: Melissa Lee
Panelists: Steve Grasso, Karen Feinerman, Guy Adami, Tim Seymour, Naveen Jaggi
Location: NASDAQ Market Site, Times Square, New York City

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1. Black Friday Countdown: Consumer Confidence & Economic Indicators

Melissa Lee opens the discussion by highlighting the optimistic outlook for Black Friday:

• Stock Market: S&P 500 is up over 30% since last Thanksgiving.
• Gas Prices: Down by approximately 20 cents per gallon compared to last year.
• Inflation: Reduced from 3.2% to 2.6%.
• Mortgage Rates: Slight year-over-year changes.
• Credit Card Rates: Remain high at around 20%.
• Unemployment: Slight increase but still near historic lows.

Key Quote:
Melissa Lee [02:27]: "Are investors feeling bullish about the holiday shopping season that is upon us?"

2. Retail Sector Analysis: Winners and Losers

Tim Seymour shares a bullish perspective on top-performing retailers:

• American Express, MasterCard, Visa, Walmart, and Costco hitting all-time highs.

However, he warns of a bifurcated retail environment:

• Challenges: Dollar stores and Kohl's hitting multi-year lows.
• Concerns: Credit card debt nearing $1.2 trillion with delinquency rates at a 13-year high.

Key Quote:
Tim Seymour [02:30]: "I wish I was more optimistic... things are going great."

Naveen Jaggi adds that the post-election climate and reduced uncertainty are boosting consumer confidence.

Karen Feinerman emphasizes:

• Market Sentiment: Reduction in uncertainty is favorable.
• Retail Preparedness: Most retailers are well-positioned with adequate inventory.

Key Quote:
Karen Feinerman [04:34]: "I think most retailers are positioned pretty well on an inventory standpoint."

3. Online vs. In-Store Shopping Trends

Guy Adami argues that consumers prefer in-store shopping:

• Preference: Majority still favor physical stores for grocery and daily needs.

Naveen Jaggi discusses the stability of online shopping penetration:

• Current Online Shopping: Approximately 20-22%.
• Future Outlook: Unlikely to exceed 25-30% in the next few years.

Key Quote:
Guy Adami [10:31]: "We are a society that likes to shop at the store."

4. Holiday Travel and Airline Stocks

Philippeau highlights a record-breaking travel season:

• Travel Increase: 6% year-over-year, expecting the busiest Thanksgiving.
• Airline Performance: United and Alaska nearing 52-week highs; Delta forecasting 10% EPS growth.

Concerns: Staffing issues at major hubs like Newark are limiting potential.

Key Quote:
Philippeau [17:53]: "The airlines need a strong holiday, a clean holiday. That's what they're getting so far."

5. Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin's Thanksgiving Volatility

Historically, Thanksgiving has been volatile for Bitcoin:

• 2017: Bitcoin more than doubled from November to year-end.
• 2020: Experienced the "Thanksgiving Day Massacre," dropping nearly 17% in a day.

Current Situation: Bitcoin is flirting with the $100,000 mark but remains unpredictable.

Key Quote:
Karen Feinerman [29:36]: "I really do think this $100,000 is going to be achieved."

6. Stock Market Year-End Outlook: Prospects and Risks

Ben Emmons from Fed Watch Advisors predicts:

• Market Growth: Likely to break 6,000 on the S&P 500.
• Economic Strength: Driven by a robust services sector.
• Interest Rates: Anticipates the 10-year yield to reach 4.5%, potentially going over 5%.

Key Quote:
Ben Emmons [33:16]: "Consumers seem to be upbeat... sets itself up for this holiday season not to lose any strength."

Karen Feinerman anticipates the Fed to remain on hold in December, with possible rate cuts in the first quarter of the new year.

7. Auto Market Analysis: New and Used Cars

Yossi Levy, CEO of Guy Yassi car dealership, discusses:

• New Car Sales: Expected to jump nearly 7% due to high inventories.
• Used Cars: Best deals on used EVs under $25,000 with potential tax credits.
• Delinquency Rates: Rising, especially in the subprime sector, but currently a yellow flag.

Key Quote:
Ben Emmons [39:35]: "Consumers purchase vehicles at all-time high prices... leasing is rising, benefiting consumers."

8. Thanksgiving Traditions: Thankful and Turkey Trades

The panel shares their thankful stocks and the turkeys (stocks they regret):

• Karen Feinerman:

  • Thankful: PWR (Qantas Services).
  • Turkey: Louis Vuitton.

• Naveen Jaggi:

  • Thankful: Viking Holdings Cruise Line.
  • Turkey: Amgen.

• Tim Seymour:

  • Thankful: Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM).
  • Turkey: Boeing.

Key Quote:
Tim Seymour [45:10]: "I'm thankful for our fan base... Harper Sullivan is glued to the show."

9. Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Melissa Lee wraps up the episode by emphasizing the mixed sentiments in the market:

• Bullish Trends: Strong retail performance, rising consumer confidence, and optimistic stock market projections.
• Cautionary Notes: High credit card debt, potential interest rate hikes, and sector-specific challenges like those in technology and automotive.

Key Quote:
Melissa Lee [46:44]: "Thank you for watching Fast Money. I am thankful for you. Have a great Thanksgiving."

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This episode of "Fast Money" offers a comprehensive analysis of the current consumer confidence, retail sector dynamics, stock market outlook, and evolving trends in online shopping and cryptocurrency, providing investors with actionable insights ahead of the holiday season.

Transcript

[Melissa Lee]

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[Karen Feinerman]

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[Guy Adami]

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[Melissa Lee]

Live in the NASDAQ market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight, the consumer on the clock as we count down to Black Friday. Stocks hovering near record highs, consumer confidence is climbing and gas prices this year lower than last year. So is all this a setup for a great holiday shopping spree? We'll debate that. Plus bitcoin boom or bust. Thanksgiving has been a critical time over the years for crypto, from the 2017 to December double to the 2020 Turkey Day Massacre. We'll ask the traders what they expect to happen this year. And later, we'll take the wraps off of our stocks, the stocks our desk is thankful for, and the turkeys that are haunting them as they get set to carve up their holiday feasts. I'm Melissa Lee, coming to you live from studio. Be at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Steve Grasso, Karen Feinerman and Guy Adami. And we start off with the countdown to Black Friday. Just one day left until the most anticipated shopping event of the entire year. And what a difference a year has made for the markets. Stocks hovering near record highs with the S and P now up more than 30% since last Thanksgiving. Gas prices across the country, they're lower than last year by about 20 cents a gallon. Not a huge difference. And inflation has dropped from 3.2% to around 2.6%. Again, better but not a massive change. Same story for mortgage rates. They barely budged year over year. Credit card rates still sitting at about 20%. And unemployment has climbed a bit, but still near historic lows. So why is consumer confidence been on the rise should investors be feeling bullish about the holiday shopping season that is upon us? Guy.

[Tim Seymour]

Hello, Mel.

[Melissa Lee]

Hello guys.

[Tim Seymour]

Intimate group here.

[Melissa Lee]

It's yes, the piece people should be.

[Tim Seymour]

I mean I wish I was more optimistic and people clearly are. And if you were to look at the market or the retail landscape through the lens of American Express, all time high today, MasterCard, Visa, all time high today, Wal Mart all time high, Costco within a whisper, you'd be like, my God, things are going great. And it's true. On one side of the equation there are, there's a flip side of that coin as well. Look at the dollar stores. Kohl's today making a multi year, I think four and a half, five year low. So you talk about a bifurcated retail environment. You're seeing it right here. My concern is credit card debt now approaching $1.2 trillion. 23% rate is the average of people are paying and delinquency rates are now at a 13 year high. That's the other side of the coin. But right now people feel great about things.

[Naveen Jaggi]

Plus you have the election behind you. And Trump, not to get political, Trump was favored on the economy 55 to 45% or whatever the number was thereabouts by 10%. Wal Mart Guy's point, 75% of the revenues are from higher income earners, probably trading down. I don't know if that's necessarily a good thing or bad thing. It is what it is. People feel as if they have some closure behind that. We had a lot of major events that were happening. Things seem to be simmering down now, which is a tailwind for confidence in my view.

[Melissa Lee]

And we know the Fed is on a rate cutting path regardless of what mortgage rates are doing. There is hope to come still for the consumer.

[Karen Feinerman]

Right. Although I think Steve's point is really important. I think people, the markets and people hate uncertainty.

[Melissa Lee]

Yes.

[Karen Feinerman]

And so regardless of how you, you know what you want it to happen, there is clarity there. I think that's good. I also think that there is remember how skittish retail the shoppers seem to be in that fourth and not the back to school quarter. I think that's behind us now. I think also the market has risen a lot. That makes people feel better, wealthier. And so a lot of things I think are setting up nicely as well as I think that most retailers are positioned pretty well on an inventory standpoint. So I think they can get good margins. So I'm pretty comfortable with the retail setup right here.

[Melissa Lee]

Right. The thing is that the retailers that have been doing well are or can be considered expensive valuations. Right. And the ones that have been doing poorly because they cater to the demographic that you cite is having more difficulty, like the dollar stores, they are doing poorly. So do you accept this, the bifurcation of the economy and translate that into what you buy for retail stocks?

[Tim Seymour]

I believe that's exactly the case.

[Melissa Lee]

Despite the valuations.

[Tim Seymour]

Yeah, despite. Well, at a certain point valuation is going to. But you know, people have tried to KN holes in the Wal Mart valuation probably for the last 25 or $30 and that's obviously been unsuccessful. The flipside of that coin is, you know, you're trying to make a cogent argument for Target on valuation that hasn't worked out. Think about this quickly. Since 2021 when Target made its all time high, that stock has been cut in half. At the same time Walmart's doubled in price. Now the valuations have gone in a similar way, but not a fighting on valuation has been a losing game. So I do think you trade it that way. At a certain point the valuations of the dollar stores and Kohl's and Target even throw that in the mix are going to be too compelling to pass up. We're just not there yet.

[Melissa Lee]

If you believe that the consumer is on the path of doing better, that things are better for the consumer, then isn't it time for a Target? Because shouldn't those discretionary items do better? They can sell more pillows and lamps and whatever it is they sell, I think they want right now.

[Naveen Jaggi]

I think we're still in that marketplace where you started the question the guy of by the winners, Right. So Wal Mart expensive. But when you look at Karen brought up inventories, Burlington Ross stores, TJ Max, all the companies that benefit off of poor inventory management, their stocks are straight up. So those are the names that people are going to for the bargains. Along with buying Wal Mart, they also.

[Melissa Lee]

Are the places people want to go for to find that something special. So if you have a higher income, you go there and you can buy something that is or was a luxury good that is now marked down. And so there's value there I guess for that.

[Karen Feinerman]

Same as that, you know, we talk about the wealthier customer going to Walmart.

[Melissa Lee]

Exactly.

[Karen Feinerman]

Customer going to tjx. And it used to be something you would hide and now, you know, you, it's sort of a badge of honor. So I'm long tjx, I like tjx but I actually think Target is interesting here and I just think that, you know, the P E differential between Walmart, which I own and they've done a fantastic job is just too big here. Now we know that Target has had some problems with inventory actually with, with.

[Melissa Lee]

The, with the most recent quarter.

[Karen Feinerman]

In the most recent quarter trying to get ahead of tariffs but I just, I think, I don't know. The valuation is really low. Could it go lower? Of course. But I think the bar is pretty low for them now.

[Melissa Lee]

Would you say the same for Target?

[Tim Seymour]

The bar is extraordinarily low but they've set that bar themselves. I mean so many of their problems are Target specific. They just haven't, I mean respectfully, they just haven't really operated all that well for the last three years. They've zigged when they should zag. They seemingly figured it out about six or nine months ago only then to fall back prey some of the mistakes they made a couple of years ago. So I think they're in the penalty box for a while. Although I can understand if you wanted to start to build a position. It makes sense. I'm glad Steve mentioned tjx, that's the other name obviously another all time high today. Look, at a certain point valuation is going to get in the way. I think it's close to 28 times next year's numbers but that probably still has to room some grow on the upside despite the elevated valuation.

[Melissa Lee]

Did you know that the holiday shopping season is like a week short? That Thanksgiving is apparently late?

[Naveen Jaggi]

You've been telling me this.

[Melissa Lee]

I mean. Yes, yes, Thanksgiving. So because that compressed timeline there is a thinking that Amazon is the ultimate beneficiary. Anybody who's got great shipping that can get it there faster because consumers are under the gun and they got to get their gifts really fast.

[Naveen Jaggi]

Yeah, I think there's something to be. There's a case to be made for that. I'm not sure. I think, I think the retailers will use that as an excuse when they can or use it as a tailwind when they can. Amazon will likely use as a tailwind. But think about how our shopping patterns and habits change from the pandemic. Do you buy in bulk still some something, right?

[Melissa Lee]

Yes.

[Naveen Jaggi]

Costco off the charts, literally. And when you look at the valuation on this, you probably don't find it attractive on valuation but it's I don't.

[Karen Feinerman]

Know how many hundreds of.

[Naveen Jaggi]

Yeah, exactly. And then the same thing with Wal Mart and Sam's Club. So there's always. So our shopping patterns have changed. Where we shops shop have changed as well and I think that's for the foreseeable future. Unfortunately for the dollar stores and the lower tier names.

[Karen Feinerman]

I've always thought though, that doesn't matter how long or short it is. I know retailers say it does. Maybe it does.

[Melissa Lee]

The psychology of it, you got 25th of December. That does not change.

[Karen Feinerman]

And those people who wait until the 24th, they've been waiting till the 24th weather.

[Naveen Jaggi]

Do you think there's people who wake up on the and on the 26th, do you think people wake up like, shoot, I missed it this year.

[Karen Feinerman]

Those same ones every year again.

[Melissa Lee]

It happened again.

[Karen Feinerman]

Right.

[Tim Seymour]

Hopefully Tim Seymour is watching. Tim. He went to Florida with his family watching when Karen speaks about the 24th shopper.

[Melissa Lee]

Right. Right. That's Tim. We've already discussed this on the air, in fact.

[Tim Seymour]

Oh, I'm just saying he's known to.

[Melissa Lee]

Go to the drug store.

[Karen Feinerman]

So Tim's got a lot of of time to left.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah. Our next guest sees a blowout holiday shopping season ahead with deal days like Black Friday set to play a bigger role this year. Naveen Jaghi is America's president of retail Advisory Services at jll. Naveen, great to have you with us.

[Guy Adami]

Good to be here. Thanks for the invitation.

[Melissa Lee]

We were just talking about online shopping, but you think consumers are going to go back to the stores and droves.

[Guy Adami]

The consumers have been continuing to go back to the store in droves. We are a society that likes to shop at the store. We had a little blip in 2020 and 2021, but I think all the numbers have shown now for the last three years when we're given a chance to go and have a positive retail experience with retailers that give us a positive experience in the store, we're going to shop in the store. We still for the most part like to shop at the grocery store in person. That won't change. I don't think it's going to change for the near future. And so to me, I'm a big better when it comes to the brick and mortar retail component of our industry.

[Melissa Lee]

What sorts of stores are giving the consumer a great experience in the store?

[Guy Adami]

Well, at the moment, as your guests have spoken about Walmart, I think Walmart has nailed it on the head. They continue to find ways to keep people coming into the store for their daily goods and their daily needs. I think Target, which one of your speakers spoke about, is one that they're not so pleased with. I'm a still believer at the end that Target is a retail I will bet on. And the reason why I say that Is because every major retail category needs to have not just one, but two big players. So whether it's Home Depot versus Lowe's or whether it's Albertsons versus Kroger, you still have these retailers that need a second competitor to drive that interest into the store. So I look for Wal Mart and Target to be heading ahead in 25 and 26. Target will get their merchandising business in shape. And I look forward to that as being one of the bright lights for 25.

[Karen Feinerman]

Naveen, it's Karen. Thanks for being on today. So we know that shoppers did change during the pandemic, right? You had to just. E commerce was the only way, really. So do you think that that penetration has stabilized or. I mean, many retailers still think there's ways to go for E commerce, but it sounds like you don't agree with that.

[Guy Adami]

I think, look, the U.S. as a broad average number is about 22 to 20% online shopping. And that's not just pure play online. That's just basically shopping online. You may make your decision online and go pick it up at the store. I don't see that number moving much more towards 25 to 30 in the next two or three years. We as a community of consumers in the US still like to go into the store. And we saw that in 21. As soon as the door started opening up, we saw the malls starting to get people back in the store. And at the end of the day, I think because we have an ease to get to the store, unlike the urban environments that we see in Europe, in the US for the most part, we can easily get to a parking lot, park our car, walk inside the store and get what we want. And that ease of access and logistics to getting into stores makes it easy for us to think about shopping. We're still a car community until we get in our car, move to the store. That what's what drives our decisions to go to the store. I'm a big believer that the brick and mortar is the place where we will continue to shop.

[Naveen Jaggi]

Naveen, by the same token. So we heard what you like and we heard who's doing the right things, who's doing the wrong things, and is it possible to turn those around or are we just watching that, that pinnacle, that pyramid get smaller and smaller at the top of the retail organizations that actually can figure it out or have figured it out.

[Guy Adami]

I think the department store sector overall is the one that's having a hard time getting their consumer back in the store. And that's probably a Lot to do with the fact that all the other retailers we've talked about, whether it's Walmart or Target and others, have done a better job of merchandising to get the quality product in their stores. To me, whether it's a Kohl's for example, or Nordstrom pivoting to Nordstrom Rack, I think to me that is an example of a retailer that said we've given up on our name brand and moving towards the discount rack, which now to me says that they've essentially said that the average US shopper will trade down to TJX and Walmart and Nordstrom Rack as opposed to trading up. And so basically now you have this barbell effect which your previous speaker spoke of, which where you have the luxury and the aspirational, they get the consumer and the discount in value gets the other consumer and as a result the middle, the mighty middle, the JCPenney's of the world, Sears, Kmarts, those legacy retailers, they're just not getting the consumer anymore. That to me tells me that that department store sector is the one that's most vulnerable towards weakening as opposed to strengthening.

[Melissa Lee]

Are we seeing that translate, Naveen, and forgive me if this is something you can't answer directly, but JLL is an advisory firm and you assess the value of real estate. So in terms of, you know, what the rents are for leases, are they more expensive when you have a Walmart as your, as your main anchor tenant as opposed to a Kohl's?

[Guy Adami]

Well, I can't answer that directly because there's a, there's a different way to ask that question and think about the situation. We're in the country today, we're an all time low in terms of supply for quality retail real estate. 40 year low by, by, in terms of delivery. So all of the quality retail real estate being delivered, the market today is more expensive than it was two or three years ago. So any retailer in America is saying we've got to make a deal. We're delivering 14 million square feet of retail space in 2514. What does that mean in context? Back in the heydays of 2006, 7, 8, 9, we delivered over 100 million square feet per year. So we're so low on inventory delivery for all the reasons that we know, inflationary costs, labor costs, interest costs, that we're not living that kind of product. As a result, whether you're Abercrombie and Fitch or your Walmart, whether you're the Gap or Lululemon, retail real estate today is more expensive than was three years ago. So you're going to have to make the move on the deal you want as opposed to waiting for the rates to come down.

[Melissa Lee]

They won't really. Interesting. Naveen, thank you. Great to see you. Naveen. Jogging. Happy Thanksgiving.

[Guy Adami]

Thank you.

[Melissa Lee]

All right. So what's our trade here?

[Tim Seymour]

You were off Friday last week.

[Melissa Lee]

Yes. Good for you.

[Tim Seymour]

You deserve it.

[Melissa Lee]

Thank you.

[Tim Seymour]

We had Stephen Yaloff here, the CEO of Yes. And we had a great conversation with him. He actually put up a pretty bullish case for the consumer. But malls, you know. Well, not malls but his space specifically. And there's some room to the upside there. Without question. And then he just mentioned Kroger. Take a look at that chart. If we could put up like a three or four year chart. That 62 level which we're approaching was the level we saw a couple of years ago. So they report on December 5th. I think a little trepidation into the quarter is necessary.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, let's get to the great getaway. The great getaway ahead of the holidays. With record travel numbers expected for Thanksgiving weekend. Could it give the airline some extra lift? Philippeau is here with all the latest. Hey, Phil.

[Philippeau]

Hey, Melissa. We'll talk about that chart a little bit more in just a bit because it really does signify what the airlines are seeing and the business how strong it is. Right now we are seeing relatively smooth lines at most of the airports around the country. I just did a check in in terms of where the major delays are. Yeah, there's a few pockets here and there around the country, nothing major. That is exactly what the airlines want to hear. They're expecting travel to be about 6% year over year. This is going to be the busiest Thanksgiving ever. And to prepare for it, let's show you that chart again. The airlines have added more flights for this 10 days if you will, that wrap around Thanksgiving. The big push yesterday. Today you'll also see it on Sunday. More than 50,000 flights on Tuesday. So as a result, when you're looking at more than 3 million people flying back on Sunday, who are the airlines that benefit the most? Well, they're all going to benefit to a certain degree. But you really have three right now as you head into the holidays that are outperforming the others. United and Alaska. Take a look at these two. Over the last six months, both of these stocks hit near or they are near 52 week highs. They hit them earlier this week. Then you have Delta. It also has had a nice run over the last at least the last three months and they had their investor day last week forecasting 10% earnings per share growth annually over the next three years. And then you've got three other major airlines that all are still dealing with issues. And while they have moved a little bit higher over the last several weeks, they're not benefiting to the same degree as their competitors. And we're talking about JetBlue. Spirit is also in, well, spirits in bankruptcy. American. And I've got one more in there. I can't even see it right now, Southwest. So there you go. Those are the three that have their own specific issues that they're dealing with. Bottom line is this, Melissa. The airlines need a strong holiday, a clean holiday. That's what they're getting so far.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah. The weather though, is not going to cooperate. And are staffing issues still a problem when it comes to staffing the control towers?

[Philippeau]

Well, United's not happy about it and they've made that very clear. Yesterday they said that the problems with regard to staffing for Newark is limiting their ability to execute as much as they could. They could be doing even better. But they say that, you know, you have the staffing issues there. That's a long running problem that perhaps, perhaps could be resolved within the next year or so. But United's not been happy for some time. They still are not happy with that staffing.

[Melissa Lee]

Yep. Phil. Thank you, Philipo.

[Philippeau]

You bet.

[Melissa Lee]

You saw that chart with United. It's basically doubled, more than doubled since August lows.

[Naveen Jaggi]

I mean saying, yeah, it's up 150/something percent year to date. Delta is behind that. And to Phil's point, Alaska is the third place. If you're going to invest. For me, it's either going to be United or Delta and people are going to think United's overdone. So they'll probably go to the lower tier ones and they'll get burned. Same way they were talking about real retail.

[Melissa Lee]

Stick with it, stick with the winners.

[Karen Feinerman]

Even United though, I've got to think. I mean a lot of good news.

[Tim Seymour]

Is priced in already 100%. Right. But over the last week and a half, two weeks, some, I forget who, but somebody put $150 price target on the stock a week and a half or so ago. Ubs just initiated $139 price target. That's a 44% upside from here. So there a lot of people are very optimistic. Delta is the one though. I mean, I think ubs put a $88 price target. That's the one. I think reasonable valuation still and if we can get through this sort of 65 level, which is prior high, 88 is probably in the crosshairs.

[Melissa Lee]

Coming up, Bitcoin bounces back the cryptocurrency recovering most of its losses after yesterday's sell off. But with a history of volatility right around Thanksgiving, will this year keep up the holiday tradition. We'll debate that, but first, a Black Friday bet on the Blitz. Whether you're shopping or watching football, Amazon has you covered. How they're playing the entire field and hoping it's a boom for their ad business. More on that when Fast Money returns. Back in two what does it take to design and deliver a corporate strategy with confidence? How will you drive long term value by understanding the risks and rewards within a challenging geopolitical environment? EY Parthenon has 10,000 strategists with deep sector knowledge backed by the real world experience of the EY global network that can help start your journey with [e-mail] us ey parthenon every day, thousands of Comcast engineers and technologists put people at.

[Steve Grasso]

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[Melissa Lee]

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[Melissa Lee]

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[Julia Boorstin]

Julia that's right, Melissa. Amazon's second Black Friday NFL game already looks like a success, selling out of ad inventory in August. That's months earlier than for last year's inaugural game. 40% of advertisers in this game are new and they're reportedly paying as much as $750,000 for a 30 second spot. Now ratings are expected to grow from last year's 9 million viewers on the heels of Thursday night. NFL ratings growing 11% from last year and 38% from two years ago. And Amazon is rolling out more interactive ads enabling customers to shop directly from commercials with a QR code or with a remote, which Amazon sports chief Jay Marine tells us was a huge success in last year's Black Friday game. Now this is all part of Amazon Prime Video's growing commitment to sports. With the NBA, WNBA and NASCAR debuting next year joining Amazon's NFL rights, this is the company looks to grow the ad demand for Prime Video, which just launched ads on its basic tier earlier this year. Now Amazon's J. Marine tells me that they are always looking for more ways to invest in sports rights.

[Melissa Lee]

Melissa in terms of the shoppable ads bringing in revenue, Julia, are there benchmarks that analysts are looking for? I mean, compared to last year, do they ever release any benchmarks? And is this all part part of the forecasts that analysts Wall street might have for the streaming the ad supported tier business specifically?

[Julia Boorstin]

Well, look, we've seen a big push towards ad supported streaming from all the play, all these different players. Amazon most recently launched ads on their basic tier of Amazon Prime Video. Earlier this year you had Netflix with ads. All of the different platforms that started out ad free now have an ad supported tier because that allows them to generate two revenue streams and offer streaming content at a lower price point. In terms of what this means for Amazon, they are clearly uniquely positioned to benefit from ads in their content. One thing that J. Marine told me was that last year the shoppable ads had 280% higher engagement than for a regular game because it was Black Friday and people were looking to shop. So it really makes sense to have these games on Black Friday when people are thinking about shopping on Amazon because they already have your credit card number. If you see something you like, they make it really easy to click through and buy and they're able to close the loop in a way that when it comes to traditional TV or even streaming television. They are working on making things more shoppable. We just saw an announcement from Walmart and CNBC's parent company NBCUniversal about creating more shoppable content for Walmart. But shoppable content is definitely the future shoppable ads. And Amazon really has everything lined up for Black Friday.

[Melissa Lee]

Julia. Thank you. Julia Boorstin. What are the chances, guy, that you buy something while you're watching a streamed NFL game?

[Tim Seymour]

What are the chances you're watching a Ranger game tonight? Zero. That's the answer. There's no chance.

[Naveen Jaggi]

Plus you have a tube television of course.

[Tim Seymour]

I don't even know how to the QR code. But think about what Julia just said. They make it so easy. They have your credit. I mean what could possibly go wrong with that? I mean it's, it's with all that said good for Amazon and good for Friday football that I won't be watching. Disney's the one real quick. I mean you look at Disney, we're right up against levels we saw in the spring, sort of 123 and a half. You get a close above there people to start talking like Carter Worth bearish to bullish reversal analysts are offsides on this thing. Disney's a sleeper in this whole move.

[Karen Feinerman]

Maybe I just love the idea of the past of America as shoppers and America as football fans and just merging that into one sort of big giant event. And if you think about why ad dollars are so high for these to know that you have a live audience that big, when we've seen obviously the quicker demise than we ever thought of linear tv, it's fascinating. I don't know. And they have the wnba. I love that.

[Melissa Lee]

Yes, yes.

[Naveen Jaggi]

Netflix has outperformed Amazon by 2 to 1. But we're talking about live sports. So Amazon's been there for a couple of years with contracts exclusive to Amazon. If you're going to be hunting for these shows and try to stream television shows, then look at a name that hasn't been performing. You talked about underperformer. This one's been comatose. Roku down 27% year to date. That one might be your sleeper.

[Melissa Lee]

All right. There's a lot more fast Wendy to come. Here's what's coming up next. You think your family is bad over the holidays. The crypto space has you beat with a history of volatility around Turkey Day. Will this year be any different? The bitcoin boom or bust Next.

[Ben Emmons]

Plus stocks trading near records as investors.

[Melissa Lee]

Get ready for the final push into year end. But could tariff threats be the Grinch? In the rally's holiday spirit, we'll debate. You're watching Fast Money live from the.

[Ben Emmons]

NASDAQ market site in Times Square.

[Melissa Lee]

We're back right after hear this.

[Steve Grasso]

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[Melissa Lee]

Welcome back to Fast Money. Check out the move in bitcoin bouncing back today after its move lower yesterday and still flirting with that $100,000 level. But remember, Thanksgiving has been a traditionally volatile time for the cryptocurrency. Back in 2017, Bitcoin more than doubled from November into year end. But fast forward three years to 2020 and investors witnessed the so called Thanksgiving Day Massacre where In just about 24 hours, Bitcoin plunged from roughly $19,000 to 16,000, a decline of nearly 17%. So will this year's record climb continue or are you worried about another turkey day of reckoning?

[Tim Seymour]

No, you didn't say that.

[Melissa Lee]

I just did. Do you have ears? I just said that I was looking.

[Tim Seymour]

At the prompter too. Mortified.

[Melissa Lee]

It was in there. It was in there. But this is a time when you sit around, you talk and you're like, oh, I got a bitcoin and I'm up. You know, whatever it is, it's 100,000 now.

[Naveen Jaggi]

So you think. So you talk about around the dinner table.

[Melissa Lee]

Yes, that's what happened in 2017 when we started.

[Naveen Jaggi]

But also you have the most pro crypto administration possible right now. Gensler is going to be gone and the crypto industry is going to be able to really mold whatever that SEC looks like.

[Melissa Lee]

Is that in $100,000 though, I mean, is that in the, in the coin now?

[Karen Feinerman]

Well, it's mostly the coin. However, I really do feel there is a gravitational pull for 100, 100. And so, you know, crypto is volatile. We could have picked a lot of other holidays, not Thanksgiving, where they probably had some giant moves as well, with the biggest one of them all being the, you know, ftse. Right, right. Disaster. Although that unfolded for months. But I don't know. I really do think this $100,000 is going to be achieved.

[Tim Seymour]

The deep end of the pool is always MicroStrategy. So MSTR, so this was $100 stock I'm rounding down a little bit in the beginning of September. Over that time, the stock went from that level to 550. You can do the math. Over the same period of time, Bitcoin maybe went up 40%. So the leverage and microstrategy is ridiculous. And you saw when bitcoin just went down $8,000, stock traded off $200. So there's a lot of strange things going on. Karen's probably right in terms of the gravitational pull. Steve is clearly right in terms of this administration. There's a long way to go between here and creating a bitcoin reserve and the federal government, as long as they.

[Naveen Jaggi]

Keep talking about that. So I do care if it happens.

[Melissa Lee]

Right.

[Naveen Jaggi]

Because then you're going to be looking at crypto. Could be hundreds of thousands of dollars. But the fact that it's still a conversation keeps it at the forefront. Gensler was on enforcement versus regulatory. So we're going to get the proper regulation, proper tailwinds. Go ahead.

[Melissa Lee]

So if you are a believer in the path higher for bitcoin, which it sounds like you are, would I rather. Yes. I feel like it's MicroStrategy or Bitcoin ETF.

[Naveen Jaggi]

Well, it depends. Well, first of all, you get. You have to have that steel stomach because it's a three to one, a three to one relationship between the two. If you believe. And I had a crystal ball, you buy MicroStrategy.

[Karen Feinerman]

Oh, there's no way I'd buy MicroStrategy. I just, I mean, the, just the math of it. I don't. Bitcoin, I mean, you could see Bitcoin go up and MicroStrategy go down. That could happen.

[Melissa Lee]

Right, Because.

[Karen Feinerman]

Right. Because of the gap, the premium.

[Tim Seymour]

There was some phenomenon over this summer.

[Melissa Lee]

Spell it.

[Tim Seymour]

I can't spell either phenomenon or summer, but somebody called Hawk to or something. Her name is Haley Welch. Yeah, lovely. I'm sure she's a lovely individual. She is now launching a hawk the Hawk coin. So if that isn't the height of aptly named. So if that's at the height of absurdity, I mean this is eerily reminiscent of the NFT and all those things. So just buyer beware out there, folks.

[Melissa Lee]

Coming up, Marcus looking to keep the rally going into year end with fresh records being hit earlier today. And our next guest thinks there's even more room to run where he has seen the most opportunity when Fast Money returns. Missed a moment of fast Catch us anytime on the Go follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this. Welcome Back to Fast Money. Stocks dropping on the second to last trading day of November. The Dow falling 138 points, the S&P 23 points. The Nasdaq tumbling 115 points. Despite today's decline, it's been a record breaking year so far. The dow up almost 19% on pace for its best year since 2019. The S&P 500 up nearly 26% and the Nasdaq nearly 27% higher. So will the markets finish the year with a bang or will all the tough tariff talk and government austerity grind this bull run into a halt? Let's ask Fed Watch Advisors founder and Chief Investment Officer Ben Emmons. Ben, great to have you with us. Consensus seems to be that the market levitates higher into year end default in with consensus.

[J]

I think I do, Melissa, because as you were talking earlier, you know, the retail sector seems to be really good shape and I noticed from conference board data yesterday that the intentions to buy all these consumer goods, it's actually increasing, you know, except for autos. But mostly consumers seem to be upbeat. You may think that maybe that tariffs may be playing somewhat of a role in the consumer mind, maybe by now that they're anticipating tariffs and they start pulling forward their purchases. Either way, it sets itself up for this holiday season not to lose any strength. So near term, I say yes, you're likely going to break 6,000 on the S and P. You were saying Bitcoin just hovering below 100,000. That seems to be a level to be broken and the only Exception is the 10 year yield which is pulled back maybe on the best in news. But I do, I do think we're going to go back to four and a half simply because this is a good economy. There's no derailment yet from anything of the tariffs otherwise being announced. If anything continues to be positively anticipated. So seems to have more room to run into Europe.

[Melissa Lee]

What's the time frame for four and a half. And can markets move higher still with the 10 year going to 4 and I mean granted it is a place we have seen before but will that provide any resistance to stocks going higher?

[J]

None of it is for the good reason. I think what we had as data today were actually really good reasons for this tenure to move a little higher. Inflation somewhat moderated. But inside of all these reports it shows that we have an economy that's driven by strength in services. So I do think this 10 year and there's actually the PC Core Services was up again that that party is the reason why the 10 would live because this fetters in sort of a current situation of risk management where likely will not cut rates as we discussed previously and has this reason because inflation is sticky or so. But it doesn't derail the stock market because it's for a good reason. Yields going up part because of groping strong and services being strong. So I think we can reach that four and a half without getting volatility markets.

[Tim Seymour]

Yeah, Ben, 2025 is going to be the year of debt issuances. I don't think the market's talking enough about it. Can you speak to that? Because I'm Listen, I think 4.5% is right. I think it actually go a lot higher than that.

[J]

Yeah. With you on that Guy. Because we've always had this view before, right. It's actually not four and a half. It could be back to over 5%. Because if you think of this issue facing next year, as much as you want to target 3% of the deficit, you're going to have to do a lot of cutting of spending to do that, which is not that straightforward yet. You got to finance this big deficit. And as we now heard Bassett through the lines, if you follow him, he does look to increase the term of issuance as in more maturity, longer maturity issuance. And that I think is still the pressure point for the treasury market. It's not in the curve, it's not in the term premium that we're going to get more long maturity bond issuance. So I think on that point guy, you probably going to drift higher towards 5% just on that basis. In addition to as the economy stands up and keeps stay resilient, then it's.

[Karen Feinerman]

Karen, thanks for being on. So if the economy is resilient, where do you think the Fed does on the short end of the curve in the next three or six months?

[J]

I think they stay on hold at least in December. Karen. But you know, if you read these minutes correctly, then they're kind of cautious, deliberately cautious to say, which I think is really about. It's just gone and continue to analyze this data, make their assessment going to keep that option open to cut rates. But I do think they've moved away from cutting rates really fast. And one important point there is that Goolsbee and a couple of others have now come out that they think they're closer to neutral now than they thought before. And that's important because if you are, then you cannot cut much more. Right. So I think the Fed will probably be on hold in December and may choose in the first quarter one rate cut and then maybe stay on hold for a bit.

[Melissa Lee]

Ben, great to see you. Thank you.

[J]

Thank you.

[Melissa Lee]

Enjoy. Ben Ammons, a Fed watch. So as we said, the top markets, everybody seems to think they go higher to year end and yet today we had some staggering moves. Dell, HP each down 12 plus percent. Nvidia down 1%. Can we go higher with questions around some of these tech stocks?

[Naveen Jaggi]

I think we're due for a pause and I think that if you see the obviously 25% of the market are these large cap tech names. So I think we are due for a pause or a sideway motion. I don't think we're due for a dramatic sell off, but it would be healthy for us to move sideways and grind sideways for a little bit.

[Karen Feinerman]

So Dell in particular, I actually sort of like the call last night. You know, clearly there's some disappointment in the guidance for the fourth quarter. But I do still think that the AI part of the story is very much on track. The PC part, the refresh being much later than they thought or somewhat later that is not quite as much on track. It ran up a lot into earnings. Part of that was on the smci, sort of, you know, the expectation of loss of market share by SMCI to Dell. We don't know if that's really happening yet or not. I think so.

[Tim Seymour]

Red, Katie online. I'm sorry, go ahead. I'll say real quick. We had Katie and we talked about the vix. I mean it closed unchanged. People like nothing happened. Actually traded over 15 at one point today. So I think the VIX is a story the rest of the year coming.

[Melissa Lee]

Up, could auto sales rev up to close out the year? New car sales gaining speed as 2024 winds down. And our next guest says one section of the market is about to surge. Car dealership guy Yossi Levy will join us next to lay out the action he's seeing in the Auto market market and how potential tariffs could impact the space. Details when Fast Money returns. Welcome back to FAST Money. Your local auto dealer may be more willing to negotiate as the year comes to the close. A new J.D. power report expects new vehicle sales to jump almost 7% this month. And that jump may be the result of lower prices. One industry insider predicts high inventories will push automakers to offer even deeper discounts into year end. Yossi Levy is the founder and CEO of car dealership Guy Yassi. Great to have you with us.

[Ben Emmons]

Great to be back home. Thank you.

[Melissa Lee]

So if I am going to buy a car, you say wait, prices will come down.

[Ben Emmons]

The timing is getting pretty good right now and the reason is inventory. Inventory is simply balloon. Right now we're facing roughly a three year high or so since the pandemic. And so with inventories flooding the lot, manufacturers have to move those vehicles. And so incentives are just rising. And so the deals are just getting better. And now that you add potential opportunity for EV tax credit to disappear, that's also bringing some urgency to the consumer.

[Melissa Lee]

Which brand has the most inventory on the lots?

[Ben Emmons]

Unfortunately, there's several or maybe fortunately for the consumers. But you're really seeing like some, some of the culprits are Stellantis, Ford. They're extremely oversupplied relative to demand and that's obviously hurting them, hurting the dealer, leading to really steep discounts, but ultimately potentially benefiting the consumer. I say potentially because some of these vehicles are still priced at historical, you know, record levels. And so even when you balance it out with rebates or incentives, it's not always a great deal. But in certain cases it can be.

[Tim Seymour]

Yossi, early delinquency rates are now the highest we've seen in 13 years north of 8%. Serious delinquency rates, the highest in 14 years, almost 3%. How does that factor into this whole equation?

[Ben Emmons]

I follow delinquencies pretty closely and I think where we're seeing some red flags is in the subprime sector, which is still a very small percentage of the overall industry. So I would say it's definitely a yellow flag. I don't know if I would say it's a red flag at this point. If you, but if you look at the context of what happened over the last couple of years, consumers purchase vehicles at all time, high prices, there were markups, right? People are underwater or they owe more on their vehicles today than they're worth at record levels. And so in many cases, consumers can trade those vehicles in and 50% of the times when a consumer can't drive their car or they can't afford a repair, that turns into a repossession, which is the next step after a delinquency. And so there is a bit of a concerning picture there. I will tell you though that the industry has, the industry's in a position now where it needs to sell vehicles and leasing has risen significantly. And so during the pandemic we didn't see much leasing because manufacturers weren't incentivized to offer great lease programs because people were buying the vehicles and purchase all out purchases have better economics. And so now things are just cooling down. We've sort of come back to reality. Leasing is rising. It's about one in four cars are being leased today. And so overall payments are declining. And so that's benefiting consumers.

[Karen Feinerman]

Yossi, it's Karen. So you have new car sales prices going down, but what's the dynamic between used cars that are still in good shape? How good of an alternative is that for, for the used car for the new car buyer?

[Ben Emmons]

Yeah, look, I've been beating this drum hard that the best used car deal is always going to be whichever, whichever used car has a very comparable new car that has a great deal on it.

[Melissa Lee]

Right.

[Ben Emmons]

So an example, if there's a brand new vehicle that's let's just say, you know, like a Ford Explorer, whatever, that has a great deal on it on a great incentive that's naturally going to trickle down to the used market. Now if you want to get more specific, the best used deals right now are actually the used EVs under 25,000 because you can still apply potentially a $4,000 tax credit against that vehicle. And so that consumers are making out very well on that front. But like that's on the user now on the new side, it really depends. But it comes down to, you know, what is most oversupplied relative to demand and that's where you're just simply going to get the best deal.

[Melissa Lee]

Yes. Great to speak with you. Thank you.

[Tim Seymour]

Thank you.

[Melissa Lee]

Yossi Levy, car dealership guy. Coming up, we are giving thanks. We have set the table for the Fast Money thanks Thanksgiving feast. But before we eat, the traders will share the names they were thankful for this year and their one big turkey. Last money's back into quick programming. Note, do not miss special coverage of the weight loss industry with Fast Money's Obesity Week that kicks off next Monday, December 2nd. Wealth top CEOs, industry experts, the former head of the FDA will talk about the forefront. What is being next to find the next great drug that's right here, 5pm Eastern every day next week should be fascinating. You're time to shine, Missy. I do enjoy this dish. I know you do.

[Karen Feinerman]

You know.

[Melissa Lee]

So the turkey's out of the oven. The stuffing, mashed potatoes, roasted Brussels sprouts, yams, all laid out on the table. Fast money. Thanksgiving feast is all ready. But before we dig in, we want to go around the horn and ask our traders for the one stock they are thankful for this year. And because it is Thanksgiving, we also want to ask for the turkey trade that they regret. So, Karen, all right, we'll start off.

[Karen Feinerman]

So I'm going to do the sort of unsung hero of Qantas Services ticker pwr, quiet little name. What they do is they handle the maintenance and utility grid. Basically, that's the main thing they do. And that obviously, with the need for more power and the utility grid being very pressed, this has been an important place to be. So that's done really nicely. That's a turkey. No, I'm sorry, That's. I like turkey. I was confused. So I like turkey, so I'm thankful for it. But the other one, you'd think a Jewish girl would be thankful for luxury goods, wouldn't you?

[Melissa Lee]

Right now, not so much.

[Karen Feinerman]

I am not. That was the turkey this year. Louis Vuitton. Very disappointing. There we go.

[Naveen Jaggi]

All right, Steve, my thing that I'm.

[Melissa Lee]

You know, you're confused, right?

[J]

No.

[Naveen Jaggi]

What I'm grateful for. Viking Holdings Cruise Line. So I've been there since the mid-20s. I've managed to stay there this whole time. Haven't sold a share. I'm going to stay there.

[Melissa Lee]

Turkey.

[Naveen Jaggi]

Turkey. Amgen. For obvious reasons, we've covered this. Jared Holtz has been on talking about this. This is the A in my wage trade. It has not performed. So this is the one that I would choose to get rid of.

[Melissa Lee]

The A in your trade is also one we're thankful for.

[Tim Seymour]

I'm also thankful for our fan base. Large and small, young and old. Right Now, Harper Sullivan, 10 years old, is glued to the show because she's a Melissa.

[Naveen Jaggi]

I'm working with Phil Rizzuto.

[Tim Seymour]

She's the one Agnico Eagle Mines. Aem. Look at that. That's the A in the clam. Can't go wrong there. That mining stock has done well. But Boeing. Mel, you know, I've tried to say the reason why Boeing should bounce and the reasons why it made sense.

[Melissa Lee]

And struggling.

[Guy Adami]

Yeah.

[Melissa Lee]

With that.

[Tim Seymour]

And struggle. I've been struggling with that.

[Melissa Lee]

But Karen bought it.

[Karen Feinerman]

I did. I did feel I felt I could have done better. I felt like when they did that big raise, the 20 plus billion dollars of debt, equity and debt, convertible debt. I should have bought right then. But I do buy it now.

[Melissa Lee]

Up next, final trades, final trade time.

[Naveen Jaggi]

Steve Bitcoin or btc Grayscale midis Any way you want to play it, play it.

[Melissa Lee]

Karen.

[Karen Feinerman]

You know I'm a long term investor so I like Boeing during the E block. We're now in the G block. I still like it. Boeing. Happy Thanksgiving everyone.

[Tim Seymour]

Guy yeah, I'm thankful for my family who tolerates me. They're watching now for the first time in a long time and I obviously thankful for all you and I watch more Ali Bob is picking up some steam here.

[Melissa Lee]

Thank you for watching Fast Money. I am thankful for you. Have a great Thanksgiving. Mad Money with Jim Cramer starts right now.

[Steve Grasso]

All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company, or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com@capella university Learning the right skills could make a difference. That's why our business programs teach you relevant skills you can take from the courseroom to the workplace. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn [e-mail].