Stock Jump On Inflation Data & Fed Comments… And The 2024 Charts Of The Year 12/20/24

Summary

CNBC's "Fast Money" Episode Summary

Title: Stock Jump On Inflation Data & Fed Comments… And The 2024 Charts Of The Year
Host: Melissa Lee
Release Date: December 20, 2024

---

1. Introduction and Market Overview

Hosted by Melissa Lee, "Fast Money" delves into the day's pivotal financial events, focusing on the stock market's reaction to recent Federal Reserve comments and inflation data. The episode highlights significant movements in key stocks, government funding debates, and insights into 2024's chart-topping performances.

---

2. Federal Reserve Comments and Market Rebound

Timestamp: [00:59 - 05:30]

• Federal Reserve Insights:

  • Austan Goolsbee, Chicago Fed President, expressed optimism about the recent inflation data, signaling potential room for rate cuts in the coming year. "The funds rate is still substantially higher than the neutral rate. So there's room for the Fed to cut," Goolsbee stated ([02:12]).
  • John Williams, New York Fed President, echoed sentiments of significant inflation reduction but acknowledged the 2% target remains unmet. "We're still not to our 2% goal. We're going to make sure we get there," he noted ([02:56]).

• Market Reaction:

  • Following Goolsbee's comments, the Dow surged nearly 500 points, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each climbing over 1%. Despite this rebound, all major indices were still trailing for the week.
  • Steve Liesman observed, "Powell agrees with Goolsbee and Williams. The market overreacted to the commentary," emphasizing that the Fed's stance remains unchanged despite market volatility ([05:30]).

• Analyst Insights:

  • Tim Seymour anticipates further rate reductions over the next 12-18 months, assuming economic conditions remain favorable ([02:28]).
  • Carrie Feiderman noted that while inflation trends are improving, the consensus remains cautious about immediate rate cuts, emphasizing, "The trend is toward inflation and not a lot of cuts," ([04:19]).

---

3. Impact on Pharmaceutical Stocks: Novo Nordisk vs. Eli Lilly

Timestamp: [17:30 - 22:11]

• Novo Nordisk's Setback:

  • Evan David Siegerman, BMO Senior Research Analyst, discussed Novo Nordisk's significant drop of nearly 18% following disappointing results from its next-generation obesity drug. The drug showed an average weight loss of 22.7%, below expectations of 25%.
  • Notably, side effects led to only 57% of patients proceeding to the highest dose, raising concerns about the drug's viability. "It really challenges Cargill Cema. They feel like they're losing in the race," Siegerman remarked ([18:25]).
  • Siegerman further highlighted that Novo Nordisk is lagging in the oral obesity market, especially against Eli Lilly's smaller molecule pill, which offers easier manufacturing and superior efficacy ([19:42]).

• Eli Lilly's Advantage:

  • Eli Lilly's Zepbound received FDA approval for treating obstructive sleep apnea, positioning it as a leader in the space. Siegerman praised Zepbound's efficacy, stating, "It's highly efficacious and is the leading product in the market," ([18:08]).
  • Steve Liesman echoed Siegerman's optimism, noting, "Eli Lilly is now in the pole position," emphasizing the company's strong performance and market position ([21:00]).

• Future Prospects:

  • Despite current setbacks, Siegerman remains bullish on Eli Lilly, anticipating positive earnings and a robust 2025 outlook. He also speculated potential acquisitions or partnerships for Novo Nordisk to regain its competitive edge ([19:56]).

---

4. Government Shutdown and Debt Ceiling Negotiations

Timestamp: [13:50 - 44:08]

• Current Status:

  • Lawmakers are debating a stopgap funding bill to prevent a government shutdown, aiming to keep the government funded until March 14. The bill requires strong Democratic support to pass ([13:50]).
  • Emily Wilkins reported that the bill is likely to receive the necessary bipartisan backing, reducing fears of an imminent shutdown. "It seems like the worst-case scenario is a short weekend shutdown," she stated ([44:08]).

• Market Implications:

  • Concerns linger about potential credit rating downgrades if government dysfunction persists. Tim Seymour discussed the possible impacts on yields, noting, "US politics matter and fiscal dynamics are adding pressure," ([15:33]).
  • Carrie Feiderman compared the US debt rating to corporate counterparts, highlighting that even companies like Apple or Exxon would face challenges if rated similarly, but emphasized the US remains the most creditworthy sovereign ([17:20]).

• Resolution Outlook:

  • With Democrats increasingly supportive of keeping the government open, the likelihood of passing the funding bill strengthens. Emily Wilkins remains optimistic about a swift Senate move following House approval ([43:19]).

---

5. Corporate Performances: FedEx, Cruise Lines, and American Express

Timestamp: [24:27 - 45:56]

• FedEx:

  • FedEx shares experienced volatility, initially rising 11% post-earnings announcement about spinning off its freight trucking business but later retracing those gains by day's end.
  • Tim Seymour attributed the pullback to macroeconomic pressures impacting pricing and margins, despite enthusiasm over the spin-off strategy ([26:04]).
  • Mike Koh highlighted broader industry scrutiny, noting similar struggles among competitors like Old Dominion, suggesting a challenging environment for shipping firms ([27:00]).

• Cruise Lines:

  • Significant gains were observed in the cruise industry, with companies like Viking Holdings, Norwegian, Royal Caribbean, and Carnival outperforming year-to-date.
  • Steve Liesman attributed this surge to a younger demographic embracing cruises as experiential and family-oriented events, enhancing onboard spending and attracting a broader customer base ([30:24]).
  • Tim Seymour and Mike Koh discussed the resilience and growth prospects of cruise lines, despite general economic uncertainties ([32:00]).

• American Express:

  • American Express (Amex) soared nearly 60% this year, outperforming other financial giants like MasterCard and Visa. The company benefits from its affluent customer base, who tend to pay bills in full, mitigating credit risks.
  • Mike Koh praised Amex's valuation, trading at less than 20 times forward earnings compared to MasterCard's 32+, making it an attractive buy ([39:30]).
  • Steve Liesman emphasized the demographic advantage, noting that Amex is more insulated during market downturns due to its high-income clientele ([40:04]).
  • Tim Seymour expressed cautious optimism, acknowledging Amex's strong performance but questioning the sustainability of its growth rate in the coming year ([40:44]).

---

6. 2024 Charts of the Year

Timestamp: [33:25 - 38:10]

• Top Contenders:
  • Steve Liesman spotlighted MicroStrategy, highlighting its 3.5-to-1 outperformance relative to Bitcoin, labeling it as the chart of the year. However, he expressed a preference for direct Bitcoin investments via Grayscale Minis over MicroStrategy shares ([34:40 - 35:22]).
  • Tim Seymour presented the RSI Weighted S&P vs. Equal Weighted S&P, illustrating the significant underperformance of the equal-weighted index. He observed that market concentration remains high, with a few dominant stocks driving performance ([34:58 - 36:39]).
  • Carrie Feiderman compared the MAG 7 against the IWM (Russell 2000), noting the MAG 7's continued outperformance despite favorable conditions for small caps. She found the peak divergence surprising, indicating persistent market concentration ([36:23 - 37:24]).
  • Mike Koh focused on the Energy Sector, suggesting potential rebounds despite a decade-long sideways trend. He highlighted the sector's relative undervaluation compared to the S&P 500, presenting it as a viable opportunity for 2025 ([37:33 - 38:10]).

---

7. Final Trades and Sector Insights

Timestamp: [45:03 - 46:15]

• Health Care Sector:

  • Mike Koh recommended the XLV (Health Care ETF), emphasizing that health care is growing faster than the broader economy while trading cheaper than the S&P 500. He highlighted the sector's resilience and growth potential ([45:49]).

• Spirits and Energy:

  • Tim Seymour mentioned Diageo (Diagnia) as a leading spirits company poised for growth.
  • Carrie Feiderman suggested OIH (Oil Services ETF) as a buy, noting its decline this year has made it even more attractive given the fundamentals ([46:07 - 46:15]).

---

8. Closing Remarks and Farewells

Timestamp: [24:57 - 46:25]

• Retirement Announcement:

  • Melissa Lee bid farewell to Tyler Matheson, celebrating his 27-year tenure at CNBC. Co-hosts expressed their gratitude and best wishes for his future endeavors ([45:38 - 46:25]).

• Final Advice:

  • Participants reiterated their trading recommendations and sector preferences, emphasizing strategic investments in undervalued sectors and maintaining vigilance in a dynamic market environment.

---

Key Takeaways:

• Federal Reserve's cautious optimism has led to significant market rebounds, though underlying inflation concerns persist.
• Eli Lilly is currently outperforming Novo Nordisk in the obesity medication space, indicating shifting dynamics in pharmaceutical stocks.
• Government funding negotiations remain a focal point, with successful passage likely averting immediate shutdown threats.
• American Express shines amidst financial stocks, benefiting from its affluent clientele and strong market positioning.
• MicroStrategy and select energy stocks are highlighted as standout performers for 2024, reflecting niche opportunities within the broader market.
• Health care and spirits sectors present compelling investment avenues due to their growth trajectories and undervaluation relative to broader indices.

This episode of "Fast Money" provides comprehensive insights into current market trends, sector performances, and strategic investment opportunities, making it an invaluable resource for investors navigating the complexities of 2024.

Transcript

[PGM Representative]

As a global leader in alternatives today, PGM is capturing the potential of tomorrow. So as you look to diversify your portfolio, PGM offers expertise in seeding, developing and managing a broad range of liquid and illiquid strategies. With over $320 billion in alts across public and private markets, we are helping clients achieve their long term goals. PGM our investments shape tomorrow today.

[Melissa Lee]

Support for this program is provided by Chevron. The anchor offshore platform is utilizing breakthrough technology to enable us to produce oil and natural gas in the US Gulf of Mexico at pressures up to 20,000 psi. A new industry benchmark, Anchor is part of Chevron's plan to produce 300,000 net barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2026 in the US Gulf of Mexico, home to some of our lowest carbon intensity producing operations. That's energy in progress. Visit chevron.com/anchor live from the NASDAQ markets out in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. A massive market turnaround after one Fed official signals there still may be more rate cuts in the new year. We'll dig in on the comments that seem to get markets back in rally mode and losing weight. Shares of Novo Nordisk getting skinnier after its next gen obesity drug cause disappointing results. Meanwhile, Eli Lilly Zeppelin just getting approval to treat sleep apnea. So is Lilly now the unparalleled winner in the space. Plus, American Express charges higher, FedEx's post earnings rally gets foiled and the traders lay out their charts of the year as we head into the last few trading days of 2024. I'm Melissa Lee coming to you live from CDO B at the Nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Carrie Feiderman, Steve Grasso and Mike Koh. We start off with the Fed comments that helped the markets turn around today. Stocks rebounding sharply after early losses after Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told her Steve Liesman he he was encouraged by this morning's inflation data. The dow up nearly 500 points while the S and P and Nasdaq were each up a percent. Stocks did end off their highs of the session though and all three major indices were still down for the week. For more on Goolsbee's comments, let's turn to Steve Liesman.

[Steve Liesman]

Five days before Christmas and the Fed delivered to markets two dovish Fed officials and a friendly pce. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee telling CNBC in an exclusive interview that the funds rate is still substantially higher than the neutral rate. So there's room for the Fed to cut.

[Tim Seymour]

That's why I say over the next 12 to 18 months, if conditions keep on the way that they have over the last 18 months, I think rates come down a fair bit more.

[Steve Liesman]

Goolsbee will vote on policy next year. The Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the PC, came out a tenth better than expectations. And New York Fed President John Williams in another exclusive interview liked what he saw. We've seen really sizable movement down in inflation the last couple of years.

[Melissa Lee]

We're still not to our 2% goal.

[Steve Liesman]

We're, we're going to make sure we get there, but definitely seeing good, seeing.

[Melissa Lee]

Further progress towards that goal.

[Steve Liesman]

Williams agreed with Goolsbee that the Fed is above neutral. So there is room to reduce rates after the lump of coal delivered by the Fed on Wednesday to markets. The data and the Fed speak today or welcome gift to investors on the weekend just before Christmas. Back to you guys.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, Steve Liesman, thank you. So did Goolsbee quell fears of a rate hike next year? Because that was sort of entering the conversation. Torsten Slok over at Apollo mentioned that in our research report on Wednesday. But the data today, plus Goolsbee's comments, does that sort of take that off the table in your view for a little while?

[Carrie Feiderman]

Right. Until we get data that. Right, exactly. I mean that. So when I looked early this morning, the handles were maybe down 50 or so. And then after that PC number came in cooler, that was down about 24. And I don't know what the rest of it was as the day went on. Maybe those interviews, that could definitely be it because those were very bullish. But I think also some progress on the debt ceiling that helped as well as well as the magnitude of yesterday just kind of, that sell off was getting a little bit sloppy. So I feel a little bit better. It's nice to see that CPI number come or PC number come in a little bit better. But I still think the trend is toward inflation and not a lot of, a lot of cuts.

[Melissa Lee]

Right?

[Tim Seymour]

Yeah. Look, if you, the numbers bear out what the market really how they reacted to the PC you went from, you basically rallied almost 260 basis points from 9:50am until the markets then picked up and then, and then we can just small off to the end of the day. But that translated into a major reversal over where we saw futures. So you, you know, you looked at your screens in the morning before the markets open and you said, wow, this is kind of sloppy and we're probably going to go into the weekend and people are now reassessing their view of the Fed. But Karen, I think you're right. I mean, sloppy in terms of how yesterday traded or how the couple of days have traded really since those, those, that, those Powell comments, I think that has as much to do with anything. I think markets are jittery. You look at the five day and the S and P, it's, it's, you know, we're down 3%. I mean, it's been, even with this move today, it's been a rough period after such an extraordinary period for equities where the assumption was that inflation was your friend. We had a number of other prints going into the Fed meeting that had you believe that while inflation isn't out of the picture and disinflation is certainly a thing of yesterday, that the Fed is not going to be hiking. Having said that, that is the biggest risk for 2025 at this point. And it's not that the Fed will hike, is that the perception of the Fed will change.

[Steve Liesman]

Yeah, I agree with that. I think the important thing is they're not going to be hiking. So whether they're cutting by, you know, twice or four times, not really the issue. The issue is do they hike? But Powell, the day of the meeting said that rates are meaningfully restrictive.

[Melissa Lee]

Right.

[Steve Liesman]

So he agrees with Goolsbee. He agrees with Williams. I think that. And he also doesn't want unemployment to tick up. So you do have the power put. That's the way I saw it. I thought the markets totally overreacted to the commentary. I get it. He was a lot more hawkish than the market wanted him to be. I don't think the narrative has changed. Economy does worse. He's there, he'll cut more aggressively and he's got plenty of tools or plenty of time and plenty of plenty of basis points to actually cut. I think the market got it wrong, but the market always overreacts.

[Melissa Lee]

There is still the sort of the conundrum, the, you know, squaring the circle that needs to be done between raising your inflation forecast and taking down the number of rate cuts. And that's still, even with the Goolsbee comments, Mike, that puzzle still remains.

[Mike Koh]

Yeah, I think, I think that's definitely true. I think what Karen was probably also referring to is that, you know, a lot of the secular pressures that are inflationary, it's not like those things are just simply going to go away. We are at relatively full employment. So of course, you know, labor costs are something that we still obviously have to keep an eye on. I mean, to me though, I think the important thing, just in terms of what Tim was saying, which is that the market is clearly jittery, that bad news was really greeted with a very severe knee jerk reaction. I mean, dropping 300 basis points in the S and P over the course of two hours sort of speaks to the fact that people might be a little concerned about the valuations. You know, one other point I would add, and I don't think that's as true this week, but going into next week, and that is that we are, you know, going to have a little bit less liquidity. I mean, there are going to be people who are not looking at their screens for all of next week. And you know, that can also create a little bit more of that kind of jump risk that we saw in prices this week.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah, the liquidity get drained away. And also there's the seasonality. Seasonality typically happens in the second half of December. And here we are entering the Santa Claus rally period.

[Tim Seymour]

Oh ho, ho, ho. And I do think it's been quite, quite joyous to this point. And if you look at where markets really haven't had a chance to test the 50, that's what the S and P did, hasn't tested the 50 really going all the way back to September. And remember this, since that last September Fed meeting where yes, rates kind of then started rising, but markets also rose. And if you look at the Nasdaq, NASDAQ was up almost 14% from that Fed Sep17 meeting into this last Fed meeting. So I think a lot of this is just a function of where we've come from. It's been, it's been a really joyous holiday period and again since Thanksgiving. And the economic data, let's not forget, has been forgetting inflation, the data around retail sales, the data around the labor market even there are people, we've had them come on our show, talk about, they even think that the ISM manufacturing is doing a bottoming thing after a couple of years of what we know has been recessionary manufacturing activity. So the economy's in really solid shape right now. The market performed like that. So yeah, I mean, it's kind of, to me nice to see the reactions to the Fed almost like they used to be. In other words, where you didn't know what the Fed was thinking. Remember when the Fed was more opaque and less transparent and it really felt like those were days where you truly.

[Steve Liesman]

Got the cha cha charity with no clarity.

[Melissa Lee]

You mean like Greenspan?

[Tim Seymour]

Look, I mean I realize, I realize some of us were alive then and it definitely seems like a long time ago and the days of irrational exuberance. But there was a time where the Fed wasn't supposed to telltale and essentially signal every case. Yes.

[Melissa Lee]

Briefcase in the briefcase indicator.

[Tim Seymour]

Wow.

[Carrie Feiderman]

Was, was thick, thin. What was the issue?

[Melissa Lee]

I forgot.

[Carrie Feiderman]

Yeah, but that was there a lot more into transparent.

[Tim Seymour]

Nobody carries briefcase anymore.

[Carrie Feiderman]

Well, that's true.

[Tim Seymour]

Briefcase.

[Steve Liesman]

Steve, not with me today. So to Tim's point, the 50 day moving average is right where the S and P closed. But more importantly, we haven't even tested the 20 day moving average, which is a momentum indicator. No one looks at that. It's around 6,000. So we hadn't been below that for a lot of time. Everyone is now all of a sudden maybe to Tim's point, getting jittery. But I think you would probably say the market should come in 3 to 5%. It did come in that 3%. You could even make the case that the market should come in a little more from here and you'd still feel good about it.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah, I mean Julian Emanuel I think was saying the market should come in at 13% or something in the first month or so of the year. How do you feel? I mean you are going to be one of the people who are not going to. You're not going to be looking at your screen for the next few days. She'll be looking at the real.

[Carrie Feiderman]

I'm not going to do much. Yeah, yeah. I don't know. I'm sort of looking forward where we get to talk about earnings again, which really won't happen until January 15th. That's a little bit of a vacuum of not a lot of information. But I don't know, I feel like we got a lot of unknowns there. We're going to see assuming they get a deal tonight, which I think they will, and even if it drags it tomorrow, I don't think that really makes a difference. So we'll see what's at the top of the Trump agenda coming in. That'll be really important. I don't know if they'll start with. If I were here, probably wouldn't start with the tariffs right away. Probably start with something else. But who knows? Who knows?

[Steve Liesman]

Let me tell you one thing. We didn't mention it though. Bitcoin. Powell did not have to come out with that line that the Federal Reserve doesn't have the permission to buy Bitcoin and they're not looking to change that. The market read that as extremely bearish. Over on bitcoin because you have a Federal Reserve that their opinion shouldn't even matter. Its Treasury's opinion should matter. But that's where you start to see bitcoin cascade lower as well.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah. Tim, what will you be doing next week besides, you know, decking the hole?

[Tim Seymour]

Yeah, there's still some, there's still some more minutes to go on the tree and there will be some running around this weekend. But, but next weekend I think there's an opportunity. First of all, even after the volatility of the last couple of days, I think there's still a lot of upside momentum in stocks that I think are the biggest companies in the world. I think there's an opportunity to sell volatility. I think actually three and six month volume and some of the biggest companies in the world that have run really hard into this, I think it's an opportunity because I think it also gives you an opportunity to trade around a little bit that in that first quarter of the year where I think we will get some volatility, we have policy dynamics to take hold. There's a big options expiry. I think you know that. John 17 options expiry. I think there's a lot of options that were tied to that as people look to, you know, even before elections, they set themselves up for where do I want to be positioned through position, through the change of power, etc. So I think those are the things to look at. But I think if anything it really is a time to start squaring away themes on both secular and structural and looking to 2025. Energy is really underperformed. Health care is really underperformed. I actually think they can be defensive. Even with all the, the nastiness in the health care that seem to be the headlines. Those are the kinds of things I think you should be doing on a week like that.

[Melissa Lee]

Mike Jan17 is that on your calendar? And interestingly that's before earnings season. That's also before the inauguration.

[Mike Koh]

Yeah, I mean actually January 31st is what's on my calendar as far as S and P volatility is concerned. I actually just towards the end of the day today picked up some SPX strangles, some 30 Delta puts and calls which are actually up a little bit. You look, you're just showing the VIX index there. It's not as cheap as I would like. But actually to Tim's point, you know the relationship between volatility, the price of options going out three, six months on a lot of the big single stocks relative to index are indeed a little bit rich. And so I'm kind of with him there. I mean, it's a, it's kind of an inside baseball trade to start thinking about, you know, trading correlation. But, you know, I think that trade actually sets up pretty well. I would want to own the inauguration, though, because I think there's some geopolitical stuff that could come out right on the backside of that. We're not just talking about tariffs, but you know, what is what's going to go on in Russia and Ukraine, things like that. You know, we could get some kind of late January surprises on the geopolitical front that I think you want to be prepared for.

[Carrie Feiderman]

I agree with both of these gentlemen, not that I disagree with you, but on the options. I have been doing some callers selling upside calls, taking that extra premium, you're able to buy a put that's closer to the money for the steamboat.

[Melissa Lee]

Let's get to some breaking news in D.C. lawmakers right now debating the latest stopgap funding bill that could prevent a government shutdown at midnight Eastern time. A vote expected to come later this hour. CNBC's Emily Wilkins got the latest from Capitol Hill. Emily?

[PGM Representative]

Hey, Melissa. Well, House lawmakers are now debating a bill that could keep the government funded until March 14 on the House floor. But the big question is we know that Republicans are behind this because they all met earlier and most of them basically agreed to go forward. However, the way that they're bringing this to the floor is going to require strong Democratic support. And at this point, we don't know where Democrats stand. House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries is meeting with Democrats now just a couple floors below where I am. And we tried asking lawmakers as they were walking in. I saw Whip Catherine Clark. She's the number two most powerful Democrat in the House. And she said that she's going to talk with the caucus, she's going to hear members out. She's not planning at this point to whip yes or whip no. Of course, that leaves a big question as to exactly how many lawmakers might wind up signing on to this. Certainly now that that two year extension of the debt limit is out, one of the biggest concerns for a lot of Democrats is no longer a problem. Many of them support leaving the government open. They support that $100 billion in disaster relief. They support helping out farmers and agriculture workers. But it does remain to be seen. It has been quite a bumpy process up here in Capitol Hill. Nothing is sure until its final, but we are expecting to know hopefully by the end of this hour whether or not this bill is going to be able to pass the House. And then of course, the action goes across the Capitol to the Senate where lawmakers are eager to go home but waiting to see what the House does first.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, Emily, thank you. Emily Wilkins in Washington, something we will be watching very closely in the next seven hours or so as a shutdown. I'm going to ask this question I don't know the answer to necessarily maybe.

[Carrie Feiderman]

I can't believe that I know I can't either.

[Tim Seymour]

You usually know the answer to that's.

[Melissa Lee]

Not your style either way.

[Tim Seymour]

Okay.

[Melissa Lee]

Because all of what is surrounding all of this debt ceiling stuff with Elon Musk tweet and you know, is is government dysfunction, which is one of the reasons why the US Credit rating got downgraded earlier this year. And so here we are on the verge of a shutdown and what happens if we actually get downgraded again? What do you think to yields? What do you think? What do you think? Because you can make the argument either.

[Tim Seymour]

Way, higher or lower depends who's downgrading and if it's S and P, I think it's a big deal. I think it's, it's certainly it's nothing will feel like it felt in August of 2011 when we lost that Triple A at plus and it seemed like it was, you know, the world coming to an end. The reality is the US Is still the most credit worthy government and borrower in the world in the deepest market, etcetera, etcetera. But what we've heard from credit rating agencies is that US Politics do matter and that they're starting to matter even more. And then you add that to FISC fiscal dynamics. We recite these numbers often in terms of percent of gdp, debt servicing requirements and burdens and where we will be over the next couple of years. So I do think it's a big deal. I do think that the headlines coming out of the last 48 hours in D.C. are suspension of debt spending, sorry, limits, in other words, for two years possibly. And again, that's at least the headline and that's part of the rhetoric around this deal. I don't think that's going to happen.

[Carrie Feiderman]

Yeah, I don't think that happens either. I did happen to look at what, what companies are rated the same as US Debt today, which Moody's. I think S and P is double a small A. No, there's a different way to say it and that would be Apple, for example, an excellent credit and if we were to lose that, the next rung would there was Exxon which would have been similar similar rated to the. If they were to lose that another downgrade. So the market will tell us whether it matters or not they're able to fund their debt. Doesn't matter.

[Steve Liesman]

Must be an unwritten rule that that corporations are not supposed to have better better credit than the actual sovereign.

[Tim Seymour]

They can't hear something sovereign treasury.

[Melissa Lee]

Exactly.

[Tim Seymour]

Pierce the sovereign ceiling is what we.

[Melissa Lee]

Say in the credit back in the day.

[Tim Seymour]

Yes.

[Melissa Lee]

All right. Meantime, Novo Nordisk plunging nearly 18% for its worst day in over two decades after giving data on its next generation weight loss drug Cagroma. The drug helping patients achieve weight loss of 22.7% on average, more than others currently on the market of the 25% expected. And just in the last hour, the FDA approving Eli Lilly Zepbound to treat obstructive sleep apnea. The stock adding to its gains in the extended session. For more, let's bring in BMO senior research analyst Evan David Siegerman. He just cut his Novo Nordisk price target to 105 a share from 156. Evan, great to have you with us.

[Mike Koh]

Thank you for having me.

[Melissa Lee]

It wasn't just the headline number on weight loss 22.7 but it was also the side effects. Only 57% proceeded to the highest dose which would indicate that the side effects were severe. And so how much does that ding Carcema as a viable product?

[Evan Siegerman]

It really challenges Cargill Cema. I think there had been hopes that you got something 25, 26, 27% weight loss with a tolerability profile similar to Zeppelin. Now Zepbound is the leading product. You're at the apex of tolerability and efficacy. I think it's important to note that was that found, I think 36% or so of patients had 25% more weight loss. So it is highly efficacious. And this was Novo's answer to Zepbound. Now they feel like they're kind of.

[Melissa Lee]

Lost and they might be viewed as lost on the oral obesity as well. Novo's oral obesity is a large molecule pill which is much harder to manufacture than Eli Lilly's smaller molecule pill. And so are they losing on that race as well or could potentially acquire a small molecule drug from a smaller player?

[Evan Siegerman]

Well, as it stands they don't have the small molecules, so they are losing. You have phase three data coming for Lilly's orphan Glyphron mid 25. Merck just inked a deal for an oral blip one. So they're now in the race. I think they do need to get into this space. That's how you broaden the market. There are other small players. We've talked about structure on this program and that could be a viable option for Novo Nordisk. But the FTC would have to clear something like this, which could happen under the new administration.

[Melissa Lee]

So what happens? So is it just Eli Lilly's in the pole position at this point? It's Eli Lilly's race to lose.

[Evan Siegerman]

It is, I would say. I think over the summer I called Eli Lilly the goat of obesity. And that's definitely playing out. You have a superior product. You got the OSA approval that 6 million more patients in Medicare, you know, potentially more patients on therapy next year. I think the one issue that we're looking at with Lilly is they need to hit 4Q numbers and have a good 2025 guide. Same issue with Novo. But that's what's really riding on sentiment for the stock. I know the stock's up, you know, 30 some odd percent year to date. Novo is now down almost 15%. So to keep that momentum, they have to have a good 4Q.

[Steve Liesman]

Evan, when you look at this class of drugs, we're talking about weight loss. So whether it's 20% or 25% seems like that's in the right area where you should be losing weight. Is the next metric going to be muscle mass? And will other candidates really start entering into the fray?

[Evan Siegerman]

Well, that's a very good point. So we have talked a lot about muscle mass and quality of weight loss. Right now there's actually no way to get that approved by the fda. So we'd have to have some regulatory updates. So what I think is most important is, you know, maintaining the weight, good tolerability. Right. This derailed the Novo program and potentially more extended dosing frequencies.

[Mike Koh]

Right?

[Evan Siegerman]

Dosing once a month, Once every other month. That's why people were interested in Amgen's maritime.

[Melissa Lee]

And I'm curious, does this stumble by Novo Nordisk prove that the smaller players actually have a shot in this game either by commercializing a product or being bought? Because it was thought maybe even a week ago that these two big players are so deep pocketed they've got such a deep pipeline that the smaller players, they may not necessarily have a place in the race?

[Evan Siegerman]

I mean, this was thought on, I think Wednesday when Merck bought the, you know, preclinical asset. You saw Viking and Structure both down. So I think, yes, there is a room for the smaller players, probably not a standalone, they do need to either partner or taken out completely. And I think that's how, you know, a large pharma player that's not in the space, like, you know, Novartis, Sanofi, you name it, could get in or Novo Nordisk could catch up.

[Melissa Lee]

Who in 2025 will be bought, do you think?

[Evan Siegerman]

Ooh, that's a tough one. That's a tough one. I think structure actually establishes a partnership with the pharma partner. That's what they've been saying. I don't cover Viking, but I know a lot of folks hope that Viking gets taken out.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, Evan, thanks for joining us. Appreciate it.

[Evan Siegerman]

Thank you so much. Happy holidays, everyone.

[Melissa Lee]

You too. Evan Seagerman of bmo, the structure CEO, actually talked about that partnership right here on Fast Money during Obesity Week in terms of Eli Lilly and the stakes, remember in October, the horrible sloppy quarter because they couldn't explain what was going on with demand. And so that's what he was referring to in terms of the bar is high for earnings. They need to actually have a good earnings print without any questions.

[Carrie Feiderman]

Yeah, I mean, right. We also, that demand question was really an issue because we always say we don't have problems if they're unable to fulfill demand. Right. Is it, you know, a sale denied or sale delayed? Hopefully they will clarify that. I mean, I don't know if they clarified. Does it get back to where it was, that 900 plus? I don't know, but I am long, Mike.

[Mike Koh]

Yeah, I mean, I think that the difficulty here, of course, now we just had that shortage issue. And it's kind of funny actually, because you think about it, had we actually seen the FDA keep it on the shortage list, that sort of would have spoken to that demand issue. Obviously would have been, you know, fighting with the compounders a little bit. But that still would have indicated that you still had that sufficient demand. I actually, as far as health care is concerned, I mean, I'm actually going to step away from names like Lilly. I think there's obviously a lot priced in for the next 10 years while these patents hold up on the GLP1s that they have. And they're obviously the front runner. But take a look at health care in general and you're seeing something that's basically traded sideways. It's trading at less than 20 times forward as a group. That includes the hospitals you're talking about, you know, the medical device makers and everybody else in the space. And health care is going to grow faster than the economy overall, I mean most forecasts have it around 13% faster growth over the next 10 years than the economy is going to grow. And it's kind of hard to see how that as a group doesn't start to play some catch up after underperforming for a while.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, coming up, return to sender. FedEx giving back all of last night's gains during today's session. Why investors aren't sure this transport name can deliver the goods that's next. Plus cruise lines cruising higher the numbers behind this year's monster gains from Carnival, Royal Caribbean and more as investors get bitten by the travel bug right after this.

[Steve Liesman]

This is Fast MONEY with Melissa Lee.

[Melissa Lee]

Right here on cnbc.

[PGM Representative]

As a global leader in alternatives today, PJAM is capturing the potential of tomorrow. So as you look to diversify your portfolio, PJUM offers expertise in seeding, developing and managing a broad range of liquid and illiquid strategies. With over $320 billion in alts across public and private markets, we are helping clients achieve their long term goals. Pgum our investments shape tomorrow today.

[Melissa Lee]

Support for this program is provided by Chevron. The anchor offshore platform is utilizing breakthrough technology to enable us to produce oil and natur natural gas in the US Gulf of Mexico at pressures up to 20,000 psi. A new industry benchmark, Anchor is part of Chevron's plan to produce 300,000 net barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2026 in the US Gulf of Mexico, home to some of our lowest carbon intensity producing operations. That's energy in progress. Visit chevron.com anchor@capella university Learning the right skills could make a difference. That's why our business programs teach you relevant skills you can take from the course room to the workplace. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at capella. Edu welcome back to fast money. FedEx giving back all of its gains from last night. The shipping giant had been up as much as 11% in the post market after announcing earnings and plans to spin off its freight trucking business. Shares open trading today up more than 6% but returned those gains throughout the day and close out just in the red. Tim, why?

[Tim Seymour]

Well I sense that the setup for the shippers overall isn't great. I think there's pricing pressure. I think there there's margin pressure. Pricing pressure can lead to margin pressure. I think the spin off news was the excitement there. This was part of this is seemingly a non core business has been running in its own silo, has its own cargo fleet Etcetera, etcetera. We wanted to see that FedEx is cheap, especially when you sum of the parts it. So that explains the move we had. But you still have to answer to the macro.

[Melissa Lee]

Okay, so it's just, it's the macro that is pressuring. It's not. Amazon is going to be a major competitor or is that part of that dynamic?

[Tim Seymour]

Look, I mean, you tell me. I mean UPS is down 47% from a peak in February of.

[Steve Liesman]

They also have the union issue too, which is different than FedEx, which has been a headwind. If you, if you pull up a chart, five year chart of both FedEx and UPS, you see the divergence between the two. And also FedEx lowered its outlook and they missed estimates on revenue.

[Melissa Lee]

Right.

[Carrie Feiderman]

Although UPS was up today.

[Melissa Lee]

Oh, yeah.

[Carrie Feiderman]

Yeah. So no, I guess maybe, I think Mike Cogger alluded to this last night that maybe the full value of the spin was already reflected in the after hours numbers and that the spin is really a year plus off. So. Seems like a long time to wait now. But I did not listen to the call, so I don't know if any of the body language wasn't so optimistic about the quarter, but they did guide a little lower.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah, Mike, what'd you make of the fade?

[Mike Koh]

Yeah, I mean, you know, it's an interesting thing because obviously it's, you know, it's less than whatever 10% of their business. We're talking about the LTL or the lttl, Karen, if you feel like the less than than truckload, which actually makes some sense. It was something that had occurred to me once or twice before. But take a look at some of the competitors in that space. They didn't trade well. Look at Old Dominion, for example, that traded very poorly today. And a reasonable question one might ask is you're taking a look at a very mature business that doesn't seem like it has a huge moat that's growing at less than the S and P and is trading at a premium of about 30% to earnings. When you're taking a look at this LTL, Old Dominion is trading like 32, 33 times forward. I think that's kind of hard to get your arms around too. And I think that it's actually putting more scrutiny on some of those names now that people are looking at the FedEx spinoff as well. So I actually wonder about that whole group, to be honest.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, there's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.

[Tim Seymour]

We're in the final stretches but 2024 isn't quite over yet.

[Steve Liesman]

From small caps to The Titans of.

[Tim Seymour]

Mag 7 crypto and beyond, our traders.

[Steve Liesman]

Are unveiling their charts of the year.

[PGM Representative]

But first, cruising higher.

[Steve Liesman]

Cruise lines are trading like the kings.

[Mike Koh]

Of the high seas.

[Tim Seymour]

But is there more smooth sailing ahead? We'll dive in next. You're watching FAST MONEY live from the.

[PGM Representative]

NASDAQ market site in Times Square.

[Tim Seymour]

We're back right after this.

[PGM Representative]

As a global leader in alternatives today, PGM is capturing the potential of tomorrow. So as you look to diversify your portfolio, PGM offers expertise in seeding, developing and managing a broad range of liquid and illiquid strategies. With over $320 billion in alts across public and private markets, we are helping clients achieve their long term goals. Pgm, our investments shape tomorrow today.

[Melissa Lee]

Support for this program is provided by Chevron. The anchor offshore platform is utilizing breakthrough technology to enable us to produce oil and natural gas in the US Gulf of Mexico at pressures up to 20,000 psi. A new industry benchmark, Anchor is part of Chevron's plan to produce 300,000 net barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2026 in the US Gulf of Mexico, home to some of our lowest carbon intensity producing operations. That's energy in progress. Visit chevron.com anchor welcome back to Fast Money. The travel trade continuing to soar. Airlines higher today and up big over the last three months. American, Delta, JetBlue all up double digits. United jumping nearly 87% in that time. Cruise lines also setting sail today. The group rallying after Carnival's strong earnings report continuing their strength since the end of September. Excuse me, this summer. Travel booking company Expedia also up nearly 30% over the last few months. Steve, you flagged the cruise lines.

[Steve Liesman]

So I've been in Viking holdings since the start when they went ipo. And it's a smaller issue and no one even looks at them. The stock is up 80% basically from when they went IPO. But if you look at Norwegian, it's up 34%. Royal up 85%. In Carnival up 45% year to date. It's not just about vacations because Marriott is only up 20 something percent. Hyatt only up 20 something percent. It's onboard spending, it's attracting a lower age bracket. When you were growing up, how old.

[Melissa Lee]

Were people when on cruises when I was growing up? Oh, like retired people would go on cruises.

[Steve Liesman]

They're, they're probably younger than us though. But, but they were older, older people and now it's more of an excursion Event. It's a family event. You go on with. With your immediate family, your extended family. So you go on as groups. You spend more money on. You spend more money on excursions. It's a cooler thing to do. It's experiential. So you have airlines that get you to the cruise. Cruise that are outperforming and hotels that are.

[Tim Seymour]

I'm not going to cop to a cooler thing to do. Okay.

[Melissa Lee]

On a cruise in an inflationary environment, know what your costs are going to be, Right. So when you're trying to figure out, like how to navigate and limit your spending because you're pinched or whatnot, so.

[Tim Seymour]

You'Re not spending any money once you get on that cruise. I'm trying to understand. Again, I'm not a cruiser.

[Melissa Lee]

You can not spend any more money because what you pay is for the room and for food.

[Carrie Feiderman]

Alcohol too, or no?

[Melissa Lee]

No.

[Steve Liesman]

Well, you can buy an alcohol package. I've known people that do that.

[Tim Seymour]

Sounds like Steve. Yeah. Asking for a friend.

[Mike Koh]

I've known people who have done that. Yes.

[Melissa Lee]

The airlines that. We were just flagging some nice performances.

[Tim Seymour]

Well, it's interesting that both cruise lines and airlines were trades that although there was upside volume, there's all kinds of fits and starts on these trades. Coming back from COVID it took them two to two and a half years to really hit their stride or to be. There's got to be a great metaphor upon me, like at full flight, cruising altitude. But they finally got there. And if you think about it, with airlines, it's always the story of capacity, it's always the story of discipline. And you're always waiting for the airlines to really fall out of bed. Anybody that's shopping for airline tickets right now knows they are not falling out of bed. Not only are airline tickets holding high levels, but it does seem like the planes are full. So from an investor's perspective, Delta's had, you know, it's pulled back, you know, 15% from those. From those highs. I think you're probably starting to nibble at this weakness.

[Melissa Lee]

Mike, how about you?

[Mike Koh]

Yeah, I mean, it's interesting. First of all, that huge outperformance that we saw in United was really. Because it had underperformed Delta. And, you know, these things are flying full. So, you know, they're really in a very strong position. And United still trades at a mild discount. I know that sort of. Delta is everybody's favorite in the group, but you're probably getting it about a half a turn cheaper if you get in on United. And they're basically dealing with the same dynamics. So you know, I like the space, but I think United is still actually a decent buy here.

[Melissa Lee]

Coming up, 2025 is frighteningly close, but we are not done with this year just yet. Our traders are unveiling their chart of the year from crypto to energy right after this. Missed a moment of fast.

[Tim Seymour]

Catch us anytime on the Go follow.

[PGM Representative]

The Fast Money podcast.

[Tim Seymour]

We're back right after this.

[Melissa Lee]

Welcome back to Fast Money. The major averages clawing back most of their midweek losses on the back of encouraging inflation data, but still down on the week. The Dow jumping 498 points, the S&P up 64 points and the Nasdaq up about a percent. Starbucks falling nearly 1% to close out its fourth straight losing week, its longest weekly losing streak since May 2023. Workers at at least 10 stores going on strike as contract negotiations stall. And Trump Media falling after the president elect transferred all of his holdings in the name to a revocable trust. That stock now up less than 2% since the election. And finally, Berkshire Hathaway upping its stakes in Occidental Petroleum, SiriusXM and VeriSign. According to a new filing. The Oracle of Omaha's firm investing more than $500 million across Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. And with the last full trading week of the year in the books, we thought we'd take a look back at 2024's major moves from tech high flyers to key reversals. It is time for the traders to lay out what they think is the chart of the year 2024. Steve Grasso I mean you have to.

[Steve Liesman]

Go with for me you have to go with microstrategies and if you look at how its outperformance with the underlying bitcoin, it's probably a three and a half to one outperformance. You look at it, this could be the chart of the week, the chart of the month, the chart of the year. It's the chart of the year for these purposes. It'll probably continue to be the chart of the year for me.

[Melissa Lee]

Are you in microstrategy and would you rather microstrategy over big wow.

[Steve Liesman]

You flip that around. I am not in microstrategies now. I am in bitcoin through the grayscale minis. Would I rather I probably should should be in microstrategies if you But I don't like it. It burns both ways. The three and a half outperformance is also outperformance to the downside. So I'd rather Just be in bitcoin. I know what I'm buying.

[Tim Seymour]

All right, Tim, My Chart is the RSP = weighted S and P, but the relative underperformance of equal weighted S&P, two S&P. So I'm not sure what chart we have here, but. But ultimately, if you look at what equal weighted has done throughout the year, first of all, we are closing the year essentially at relative lows against the S and P. That broadening of the market that we are so excited about over the summer, which was almost an 8% move in July of equal weighted and value plays. And the broader market, which is since Thanksgiving, has been a straight nosedive lower. So as you can see, this ratio chart kind of shows you where we started the year. It's 12% of underperformance. And again we're back to those same seven or eight stocks. And it's, it's pretty interesting because I would have said a year ago, hey, I don't think the S and P is going to ever be 36%. Seven stocks stocks again. And in fact, it's. Well, that's where it is now. If you include broadcom as the 8 stock, you're at 36%. It's slightly bigger as a concentration, as was a year ago. So I just think it's fascinating that markets have that roller coaster inter year.

[Melissa Lee]

So would you rather into 20, 25 equal weight or S and P?

[Tim Seymour]

I'm going to answer it with a caveat that if I think rates are going higher, I want to own the top seven stocks. I just think they're going to be more defensive. But I do believe that this is a time to be buying the broader market market.

[Melissa Lee]

Karen, what's your chart?

[Carrie Feiderman]

It's actually very similar to Tim's in its concept. So my chart is the Mag 7 versus the IWM. And so getting to this, what, what generated the overperformance? The Mag 7 very strong again after we think about what a big year they had last year. And on top of that, to continue with this outperformance. And then the iwm, even though a lot of things set up nicely for it, lower rates, maybe not as low as we hoped, but a regulatory environment that might be more hospitable to them. Mergers, for example, and the banks doing better. Didn't matter. It didn't matter. And so ultimately we get, I think, a peak divergence at the very end of the year. That's surprising to me.

[Steve Liesman]

Would you rather.

[Melissa Lee]

Go ahead.

[Tim Seymour]

You need to ask the same question.

[Steve Liesman]

You want to Switch it up.

[Melissa Lee]

Predictable. I mean, I already asked the two times in a row forward to my question. CO Mike, what's your chart?

[Steve Liesman]

Get ready.

[Carrie Feiderman]

Mike.

[Mike Koh]

Yeah, I mean, so Steve's picking a chart that looks really interesting to the upside and Tim looking at one to the downside. I guess on a relative basis. Karen, too. I'm looking at one that's just going sideways. So energy has gone sideways all this year. It's actually gone sideways effectively for 10 years. If you went back 10 years, this is essentially a dead money trade. I am thinking that there might be some opportunity for, you know, a potential rebound this year if we see, you know, an uptick in some other areas. These things don't really trade that expensive. So, you know, I'm kind of looking at this for 20, 25. Maybe this is the year.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, Coming up, American Express cashing in on big gains this year. Why this name is at the forefront of the financials and the pinnacle of payment stocks next. Plus, you're running out of time to get those final stocking stuffers. Tim. This is just a few, unfortunately. And it is time to find out which retail store stocks have been naughty and which have been nice. More fast money into. You're looking at a live shot of the House floor where lawmakers are voting on the latest spending bill. The bill needs 283 votes in favor to avoid a shutdown at midnight. Tick tock. All right.

[Tim Seymour]

That picture reminds me of remember when TARP failed and we were like sitting at our screens and we saw that?

[Mike Koh]

October.

[Carrie Feiderman]

Yes.

[Tim Seymour]

Yeah, it was hard to believe. Anyway, sorry.

[Melissa Lee]

Meantime, American Express set to end the year on a high note. The credit card company rising nearly 2% today and is now up almost 60% this year. That makes it the third best financial stock in the S and P and puts it far ahead of payment names like MasterCard and Visa. Amex. Also getting a rush of price target hikes in recent days as analysts rush to catch up with its recent run. The average price target of 292 still lower than where it closed today. Mike co do you like American except Express? They tend to have higher income folks. They tend to pay their bills in full.

[Mike Koh]

Yeah, I mean, American Express has some things going for it. I felt like management had some pretty big missteps with their affinity cards a couple of years ago, but they seem to have gotten past that. And look, it's trading less than 20 times forward. And while I still like Mastercard's growth rate a whole lot better, it's trading 32 plus times forward, so that one's a little bit harder to get your arms around. So you got this one at a discount to the broad market growing at least as fast. And you know, obviously it doesn't have the same kind of an issue if you have a consumer spending slowdown. Because of the demographic that you just mentioned.

[Steve Liesman]

Yeah, I think the demographics you could see you stated in MasterCard up 24% year to date. American Express up 60%. Visa around where MasterCard is. Walmart showed us where they were getting all the business from. Right. The higher income family. And now when you look at, you look at, you can look at the homebuilders, Toll Brothers. They cater to a higher, more affluent network of people. American Express, this has saved them. So if the market turns down, they're more insulated by it sort of go down less than the others and it goes up more than the others in a boom.

[Melissa Lee]

The knock on American Express had always been that if business spending, businesses start to curb their spending, their budgets, etc. Travel, then American Express gets hurt. What kind of environment do you think we'll be in next year?

[Tim Seymour]

I think, you know, the business environment will remain pretty robust. I think if anything there's, there's more confidence to, to spend and to maybe spend on some CapEx OpEx. But I guess I, you know, I worry about a stock that's doubled in a year and a half in a world where all we do is talk about consumer credit, even if it is a more affluent group. The question is, can you have the kind of year that you've had for the last 18 months? I don't think so. And while the valuation isn't terrible, it's not that cheap. So I don't know if I need to chase Amex here.

[Carrie Feiderman]

The valuation is not terrible. You know, it's actually, I mean, it's high for itself historically, but they've sort of grown into it, I think. And I think that affluent customer, maybe it's not a business, maybe it's not. It's just a, you know, a person, an affluent person. They're spending this year, they're going on cruises.

[Melissa Lee]

Right.

[Carrie Feiderman]

But they're going to think about people. I really would be curious. American Express, how much Taylor Swift business did they do? For real?

[Melissa Lee]

Really?

[Tim Seymour]

How much did you give them?

[Carrie Feiderman]

A fair amount. Too much.

[Melissa Lee]

A lot in your family?

[Carrie Feiderman]

Yes, I did. Yes.

[Melissa Lee]

Across people. Not just you, only three of us, but still.

[Carrie Feiderman]

Yes. And that happened across the country and there's so much spending that goes alongside with it, you know, to the travel.

[Melissa Lee]

So if that's the case and the tour is no longer and the tour.

[Carrie Feiderman]

Is no longer willing, then year on.

[Melissa Lee]

Year, are the comps worse? No Taylor Swift bump. And the comps are gonna be Swift Bar.

[Carrie Feiderman]

Wow.

[Melissa Lee]

I mean, what do you. Mike Ko Mike, you're a big Taylor Swift fan.

[Carrie Feiderman]

You wouldn't know the answer.

[Mike Koh]

I am not a big Taylor Swift fan, but Holly absolutely is a big Taylor Swift fan. And she wanted to go and she wanted to bring the kids, but the boys are not really Taylor Swift fans either. So that plan sort of fell by the wayside. But if, if she could have found somebody else in the family that was willing to go with her, she'd have dropped the American Express card on that thing in a heartbeat, I'm sure.

[Carrie Feiderman]

So you wouldn't go, Mike? I mean, Dan went in a Kelce jersey.

[Tim Seymour]

I mean, that's embarrassing.

[Mike Koh]

I don't know. I don't think so. I'm not a big concert person to begin with.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, coming up, it's the final stretch in the countdown to Christmas. So what is in store for the retail trade? What the holiday season could mean for this group next. And here's a sneak peek at the Kramer Cam. Jim is chatting exclusively with the Ag Co CEO. Catch the full interview. Top of the hour on Mad Money. More fast money in tune. Breaking news on the vote on the House funding bill. Emily Wilkins is in D.C. with all the details. Emily.

[PGM Representative]

Hey, Melissa. We can now say that the House has enough votes to pass the stopgap bill that will end the shutdown tonight and continue the fund the government until mid March. Now, of course, nothing is final until the vote is closed, but at this point, they do have the two thirds support needed with Democrats coming in to help Republicans push this bill over the line. Once it clears the House, it will go to the Senate and the jet fumes are heavy up here. Lawmakers want to get home for the Christmas holiday. We are expecting the Senate to move quickly on this. The House has shown that it's bipartisan. Elon Musk even tweeted that he thought Johnson did the best that he could. So it seems at the 11th hour, everyone is coming together. We will have more updates on exactly when the Senate votes, but it seems like the worst case scenario at this point is a short weekend shutdown. And the best case scenario is that lawmakers are jumping their flights before the end of today. Melissa.

[Melissa Lee]

Emily, thank you. Emily wilkins. All right, Christmas, in case you didn't know, just four days away. So for you last minute, shoppers out there. Tim, there's only one weekend left to tick everything off your shopping list. Among the big retail winners this month, Victoria Secret, build a bear 5 below, urban outfitters and Ulta Beauty all up double digits. So is there more momentum ahead for retail? And of course remember this is a compressed holiday shopping season. So maybe this weekend it has even more at stake. Karen.

[Carrie Feiderman]

Yeah, I know we had talked about this before this compressed and I don't think it matters. I know retail say it does but Tim, you could have. You always wait. It doesn't matter.

[Tim Seymour]

You drive on pressure.

[Carrie Feiderman]

He's not getting it done. But I would like, I'd like retail. I feel like the. The consumers feel are feeling good. If you have any. If you have assets in the market you're feeling really good. I like Ulta, I like tjx, I like Gap and I have Louis Vuitton which has a bigot.

[Melissa Lee]

Right.

[Tim Seymour]

I think it's fascinating the way some of the discretionary spend especially the apparel, especially those names that have been leading for the last year have gone look at Deckers again guys. Focus and Uggs and get them both in the same company. And that stock is not that expensive here. So I think it goes higher.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, up next, final trades. It is time for the final trade. But before we go around the horn I just wanted to briefly say best of luck to my good friend Tyler Matheson who is retiring from the anchor seat after 27 years at CNBC. It has been an honor to work alongside.

[Tim Seymour]

Love you Tyler.

[Carrie Feiderman]

Yes. What a great send off that was today.

[Melissa Lee]

It was. I was here I was and I was honestly he is a great man. We will miss you Tyler. All right, around the horn we go. Mike Co. Yeah.

[Mike Koh]

Health care is growing faster than the broad economy but the sector is trading cheaper than the S and P. I think you could buy xlv.

[Tim Seymour]

Sam A tough time in the spirit space for Diagnia which is the global spirits leader. I think a brand that is got high brand power and I think the top line starting to grow again.

[Melissa Lee]

Karen.

[Carrie Feiderman]

Yes. I like the OIH which is down for this year but. But it's. But some of the underlying stocks have made a lot of cash so it's actually gotten even cheaper.

[Steve Liesman]

Steve Tyler Good luck my friend. BTC I'm bullish Bitcoin and the way I played is grayscale minis BTC by.

[Melissa Lee]

The way Tyler be right here today.

[Carrie Feiderman]

After that was a quick retirement.

[Melissa Lee]

Excellent. Not money starts right now. All opinions expressed by the fast money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of cnbc, NBC Universal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer Is it time to reimagine your future? The right business skills may make a difference in your career. At Capella University, we offer a relevant education that's designed to focus on what you need to know in the business world. We'll teach professional skills to help you pursue your goals like business management, strategic planning, and effective communication, and you can apply these skills right away. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at Capella Eduardo.