Stocks Bounce After Sell-Off… And Opportunity In The Credit Market 11/21/25

Summary

Podcast Summary: CNBC’s “Fast Money” – Stocks Bounce After Sell-Off and Opportunity In The Credit Market (11/21/25)

Date: November 21, 2025
Host: Courtney Reagan (in for Melissa Lee)
Panel: Tim Seymour, Karen Fireman, Steve Grasso, Julie Beal
Key Guests: Peter Boockvar (CIO, Bleakley Financial Group), Otzi Chhatwal (Moody’s Ratings Chief Credit Officer)
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Episode Overview

This episode spotlights a notable rebound in U.S. stocks following a recent sharp sell-off. The team debates whether the bounce marks a bottom or if volatility will persist as the year ends. Alongside the equity discussion, the panel delves into the week’s crypto market trouble, shifting expectations for Fed policy and interest rates, sector-specific rebounds (retail, restaurants, airlines, and homebuilders), and a detailed global credit market outlook for 2026. The lively roundtable style provides both market color and actionable insights for investors preparing for the holidays and the new year.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Rebound After Sell-Off

00:55 – 10:49

• Summary of Action:

  • S&P 500 rallied 1.9%, Dow gained almost 500 points, Nasdaq up nearly 1%. This offsets previous day’s losses but indices still down for the week.
  • Notably, Alphabet and Apple gained, whereas Oracle dropped 5%, now 42% off its all-time high.

• Sentiment Drivers:

  • Tim Seymour (02:30):
    • Three elements shaped the day:
      1. Rumor of Trump Administration Easing Export Restrictions on Nvidia Chips to China.
      2. Fed New York President John Williams opening the door to possible December rate cuts.
      3. Options expiration: $3.1 trillion in options expired, likely unwinding negative positions.
    • “The good news is this price action sets you up for a year-end rally ... an important bounce off very important intraday levels, especially in semiconductors.” [02:50]
    • Believes market is oversold and holiday week will support buyers.

• Oracle Weakness Explored:

  • Karen Fireman (04:05):
    • Oracle stands out for underperforming peers due to concerns over debt, future business uncertainty, and less confidence compared to other cloud providers.
    • “Oracle doesn’t seem to be having any beta to the upside … the other cloud providers have a more solid book and higher margin.” [04:13]

• AI Spend and Fed Context:

  • Steve Grasso (06:07):
    • Markets desire a clear, ongoing rate cut path, not “case by case.”
    • AI hardware investment is questioned for sustainability; risk-off moods clearly impacting cryptocurrencies.

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2. Crypto Sell-Off: Causes and Implications

10:50 – 16:42

• Bitcoin Dynamics:

  • Bitcoin hit a 7-month low, dipping into the “80,000 handle” (unclear if typo; context implies significant low).
  • ETF outflows & macro forces add to pressure, unlike the last crash (2022).
  • Mackenzie Sigalos (10:50):
    • “We're seeing selling pressure mounting from macro uncertainty, ETF outflows … and anxiety around one of crypto's biggest corporate holders, Strategy Shares.”
    • January 15 seen as “pivotal” for possible forced selling if Strategy Shares is excluded from the MSCI index. [11:30]

• Panel Crypto Perspectives:

  • Karen Fireman (12:57):

    • Sees the risk of forced selling as a “vicious cycle,” but feels the sector is bottoming out and “very much institutionalized.”
    • “If I owned none, I would probably get started very small.” [14:14]

  • Tim Seymour (14:18):

    • Not overly worried about further Bitcoin downside; “Of all the things that sold off in the fluffland ... Bitcoin is the one I'm least worried about.” [14:42]
    • Institutional involvement means more volatility but also maturity.

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3. Fed Policy Uncertainty & Labor Market Concerns

16:43 – 22:46

• Key Fed Developments:

  • CPI data delay due to government shutdown – leaves the Fed without latest inflation numbers before the December 10th decision.
  • New York Fed’s John Williams’ comments interpreted as signaling potential December rate cut.

• Peter Boockvar Interview (17:33):

  • Asserts Williams’ comments were likely coordinated with Jay Powell, suggesting high odds of a cut:
  • “Because of his position at the New York Fed, that was a signal they're more likely than not cutting interest rates.” [17:38]
  • Fed still has ample non-government data to guide decisions.
  • “If they feel the labor market is weakening, they're less worried about inflation, they'll cut. But there will be more dissents than we've ever had at each meeting.” [18:43]

• Labor Market Outlook:

  • Boockvar (19:17):: Inflation is pressuring consumer behavior, especially for middle/lower-income; labor market now “a delicate balance.”
  • Large company layoffs are high-profile; real labor weakness still led by small/mid-sized businesses.
  • Julie Beal (21:45):: Immigration shocks have profoundly changed wage inflation and economic growth, complicating Fed analysis.
  • “I'm not convinced yet that the labor market has deteriorated rapidly. The components have just changed.” [22:44]

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4. Retail Sector: Holiday Outlook & Value Strategies

24:00 – 29:55

• Earnings Recap:

  • Walmart & TJX raise forecasts, Gap beats expectations, Target cuts outlook.
  • Discretionary sector remains weak, sentiment is very low.

• Winners & Losers:

  • Karen Fireman (25:04):
    • TJX’s high inventory seen as future margin upside due to their agile trading model.
    • “The only thing not to like about TJX is it isn’t cheap at all.” [25:41]
    • Abercrombie & Fitch seen as “ridiculously cheap” and under the radar, but she notes she’s been wrong before.
  • Steve Grasso (26:59):
    • Retailer performance hinges on smart inventory management. TJX and Ross capitalize on others’ overordering.
    • Suggests sticking with proven winners as “ambiguity” reigns.
  • Tim Seymour (27:56):
    • “This was a week where I’d like to buy one of the losers – I liked what Target said... a stronger grocery would help the rest of the business.”
  • Julie Beal (29:02):
    • “Value is the key right now in retail ... everyone is tired of how much they pay for things.”
    • Momentum and value are the factors to watch ahead of holiday.

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5. Sectors in Focus: Restaurants, Airlines, and Homebuilders

31:29 – 32:55

• Big Movers:

  • Restaurant: Cava, Sweetgreen, Wingstop, Dutch Bros all surged.
  • Airlines: Southwest, American, Delta, Alaska up 4–5%.
  • Homebuilders: iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) saw its best day since August, led by D.R. Horton, Lennar, Pulte Group.

• Julie Beal (32:35):

  • Sees the homebuilder strength as a structural trend: “We’re under-housed ... even without significant rate relief, [builders] can position themselves well for the long term.”

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6. Credit Markets: 2026 Global Outlook

34:46 – 39:10

• Otzi Chhatwal, Moody’s Ratings:
  • Global: U.S. and global GDP expected to remain resilient (U.S. ~2%, global 2.5%); rates should become more accommodative; main risks are geopolitical shocks and policy uncertainty.
  • Emerging Markets: Growth holding up well, esp. in China, helped by weak dollar aiding debt repayment (35:37).
  • Developed Markets: Europe is weak but stabilizing; U.S. growth steady but the upside is from expected rate declines.
  • Japan Focus:
    • Tim Seymour worries Japan’s breakout in JGB yields signals a “ticking time bomb," currency near all-time lows.
    • Chhatwal: It's a structural shift—from deflation and low growth to reflation and positive growth.
      • “Any time you have a big shift like this you’ll see frictions in the market … This is not necessarily a time bomb.” [37:44]
  • Tim: For now, Japan’s high debt load is “very serviceable”—not Greece, and the inflation may be what policymakers wanted, but with warnings for exporters.

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7. Deal Talk: Warner Brothers Discovery Bids

43:36 – 44:38

• Julia Boorstin (CNBC):
  • Multiple bids in for Warner Brothers Discovery—Paramount/Skydance wants the whole business, Netflix and Comcast are seeking studios/streaming units.
  • Netflix offers to keep theatrical distribution; Comcast would add sports rights and theme parks.
  • Regulatory hurdles and how to value the linear TV unit are key issues.
  • Tim Seymour: “Sum of the parts, Warner Brothers is worth more than it’s trading at today … I do think HBO makes a lot of sense for Netflix.” [44:09]

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8. Trader Watchlists – “Stocks On Your Radar” & Final Trades

39:36 – End

• Tim Seymour: Amazon (“multiple looks very cheap”); likes Target as a bounce-back play.
• Karen Fireman: Meta Platforms (good valuation after pullback; “spigot they can turn on/off” re: spending).
• Steve Grasso: Boeing (“incredible buying opportunity” as free cash flow, production, and defense pick up).
• Julie Beal: Tyler Technologies (quality small-cap software serving local government—less exposed to AI hype).
• Final Trades:
  • Beal: Advanced Drainage Systems
  • Seymour: Amazon
  • Fireman: Meta
  • Grasso: Ethereum (“I’m calling a bottom, if it doesn’t work I’ll call another one next week.”) [45:11]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

“The good news is this price action sets you up for a year-end rally … an important bounce off very important intraday levels, especially in semiconductors.”
— Tim Seymour (02:50)

“Of all the things that sold off in the fluffland ... Bitcoin is the one I'm least worried about.”
— Tim Seymour (14:42)

“We’re seeing selling pressure mounting from macro uncertainty, ETF outflows … and anxiety around one of crypto’s biggest corporate holders, Strategy Shares.”
— Mackenzie Sigalos (11:15)

“Value is the key right now in retail because people are so value starved … everyone is tired of how much they pay for things.”
— Julie Beal (29:02)

“Because of his position at the New York Fed, that was a signal they're more likely than not cutting interest rates.”
— Peter Boockvar (17:38)

“Any time you have a big shift like this you’ll see frictions in the market … This is not necessarily a time bomb.”
— Otzi Chhatwal (37:44)

“If I owned none, I would probably get started [with bitcoin] very small.”
— Karen Fireman (14:14)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Stock rebound, options, market bottom? – 00:55–10:49
• Crypto sell-off, Strategy Shares/ETF anxiety – 10:50–16:42
• Fed, rate cut expectations, Boockvar interview – 16:43–22:46
• Holiday retail: Winners/losers, inventory, value – 24:00–29:55
• Sector surges: Restaurants/Airlines/Homebuilders – 31:29–32:55
• Japan, global credit market: Moody’s/Otzi Chhatwal – 34:46–39:10
• Trader stock picks & final trades – 39:36–45:13
• Warner Brothers Discovery bids – 43:36–44:38

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Tone and Takeaways

The panel is pragmatic but cautiously optimistic, highlighting a market craving clarity on Fed policy, the growing overlap between AI and crypto risk, and a shift in retail toward value-centric plays. While concerns are raised around global credit markets and Japan’s structural transformation, there’s a focus on opportunity amid volatility.

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For more actionable insights and in-depth discussion, listen to the full episode at CNBC’s Fast Money.

Transcript

[A]

A rich life isn't a straight line to a destination on the horizon. Sometimes it takes an unexpected turn with detours, new possibilities and even another passenger or three. And with 100 years of navigating ups and downs, you can count on Edward Jones to help guide you through it all. Because life is a winding path made rich by the people you walk it with. Let's find your rich together. Edward Jones, Member, SIPC For 140 years, MultiCare has been in Washington prioritizing long term solutions, partnering with local communities and expanding access to care. Together, we're building a healthier future. Learn [e-mail] live from the Nasdaq markets in the heart of New York City's times where this is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. What a difference a day makes. Stocks rallying after yesterday's sharp reversal. What's driving the gains and can the strength continue into year end spent? We'll get some answers and a bitcoin bummer. Crypto prices hitting, brand new 7 month lows. Why the tokens under pressure and how to trade the space now. Plus, a big week for retail. Coming up, airline stocks taking off in today's rally and where the debt markets are headed in the new year. Well, Dr. Moody's chief credit officer to get her outlook for global rates in 2026. I'm Courtney Reagan. And this evening for Melissa Lee. Coming to you live from Studio B at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Fireman, Steve Grasso and Julie Beal. And we start with that massive market rebound to close out the week. The S and P jumping as much as 1.9% at its highs and closing back over 6,600. The Dow adding almost 500 points while the Nasdaq gained 9.10of a percent. So what, if anything changed overnight? After all, today's gains only just erased yesterday's losses on the Dow and the S and P and Nasdaq in fact, still down over the last two sessions. So for the week, all three indexes in the red. And while big tech heavyweights like Alphabet and Apple saw big gains today, once unstoppable, Oracle fell over 5% for its lowest close since June. The Stock has lost 42% from its all time high hit just two months ago. So how do you make sense of today's market action? Did we finally hit the bottom or is there more pain to come? Tim, I'm going to kick it off with you, make it make sense as the kids try.

[B]

But it makes sense you're here, it's great to have you here. So I think there are three things that have to do with a big change in sentiment on a day over day. Nothing really changed at all over the last few days. I don't think once we got reaffirmation of numbers we kind of knew what we were going to get from Nvidia. But I think it's a combination of there's a story out there, Bloomberg's breaking a story that the Trump administration has been having a chat in the last few days about allowing Nvidia chips to be exported to China. Whether that's true or not, you know the, the H200 being available is a big deal not only just for Nvidia but I think the overall trade, the Fed Dynamics, Fed, New York Fed, John Williams out there today saying a December cut is certainly a possibility I think is what the market wanted to hear. Whether we've all said this many times with a 25 bips means anything in the scheme of the economy and the consumer and the places where people might be concerned. I think it's a options expiration today at 3.1 trillion in options expired. I think there were a lot of people that were positioned negatively although these were the monthlies and you can make an argument that people are looking for this month to have been positive. It's been one of the worst Novembers in a long time. The good news on this week and this price action is it sets you up for a year end rally and I think there was a very important bounce off of very important intraday levels today, especially in semiconductors off 315 on the S and H. So I like the price action. I think we are oversold. I think we've got a holiday week coming up and I think people want to buy.

[A]

What there's a holiday week like Black Friday and stuff?

[C]

Not for you?

[A]

No, Nothing going on in retail. Karen? Oracle. I want to talk about Oracle. We sort of mentioned it in the open and Tim was just talking about Nvidia and semiconductors. What's going on with the action there? You were looking at that earlier today, right?

[D]

Yeah, just that sort of stood out as mean. You had a rebound, a nice rebound across the board and then Oracle doesn't seem to be. It seems to be sort of having a greater than 1 beta to the downside and no beta negative beta to the upside. I think, you know, we all know about the story of okay, there's so much debt that they're going to need to issue or have issued already and it's just going to get more and more expensive to do so. And the promise of all of this future business will it even be there? And so that's been weighing on Oracle. I think that the other cloud providers have a, I guess a more solid book going in of higher margin business and I think the Street's more comfortable with that as well as the valuations were. I'm not sure where Oracle valuation is right now but the valuations for the other ones I think are far more less demanding as Guy would say. So I think and then you have other parts of the story for Microsoft and for Google in that the rest of their businesses are really doing well. And so Oracle's really stood out to me. That's not where I have exposure but anywhere I had exposure in AI wasn't fun this week. I mean this is bounces nice. I don't know that the since since Nvidia had take China completely out of their projections. I don't know that this ad is if, if it is going to happen how much it will matter but would.

[B]

That be good news more overall that again if we're, if we're able to sell chips to China there's some sense that there's a little bit more global cooperation. There's a little more confidence that the whole space actually has more behind it.

[D]

But these are chips that I guess they were talking about. They're not really the best chips old although then you get back into the. But don't depreciate because they actually still have value and you can use them for years. That that's another question we will see.

[A]

Steve, Tim brought up the idea of the Fed and I just picked my own question.

[C]

There's just.

[A]

No, I'm kidding But Tim brought up the idea of Williams putting December on the table. You feel like you can't just do one rate cut. You got to keep going. Right. You got to start this trend. You can't just stop.

[C]

I think it's the pace. The pace. So the market worried about if December is off the table, is January off the table. So if you, if you say you're going case by case they don't want case by case. They want a clear path going forward on rate cuts. They don't want the start and stop. I think AI the spend. We heard from all of Nvidia's, we heard from all of Nvidia's clients so we knew what that earnings report was going to be like. Having said that there's still. They had to weave it Is it too much pull forward? Is there too much spend? Is the spend going to be sustainable going forward? I think the bitcoin sell off, the cryptocurrency sell off, the risk off, sell off to me is huge.

[B]

Right.

[C]

Because there's, if you're not long bitcoin, you don't think we sold off, right. I mean it feels, feels pretty innocuous. But when you look at cryptocurrency, Bitcoin's off what, 33% from its all time high bitcoin.

[B]

Are you. And I'm not asking you saying. The point is how long is the average person in bitcoin outside?

[C]

A lot longer now with the, with the etf. So that's why I think it matters.

[D]

But, but I think if I just interrupt for I think the bitcoin owner and the is also a big AI owner. There's big overlap there. To the extent that you have risk and pulling back or margin calls or any of that, that's going to spill over to what else they already own and that's good.

[C]

And the percentage, to Tim's point, the percentage of people that own crypto felt like it was really, really small. And now with ETFs, I think the stat that I saw was 28% of people through institutional ownership or through ETFs have exposure to cryptocurrency.

[B]

But they own 3% to 5%.

[E]

Right?

[B]

I mean like are you really losing slee a 3% position in your book crypto?

[C]

I think people that are in, that are really deep in crypto own a.

[B]

Ton of really deep. But, but the average, you know, the crossover institutional player that's now involved, I don't, I'm not sure they bet the farm.

[C]

You know what I think is a problem? I'll button it up with this. What I think is the problem is that where you have hodlers, people that are never going to sell now you get something that kicks out. We own X percent in our fund, sell it. So where people didn't turn around and look, I think you're going to see more volatility with larger institutional ownership than you did before when it was just retail.

[A]

I appreciate the button up but we are going to talk a little bit more about it. So everyone else, you're going to get your turn. I don't want to forget about Julie. She's out there. I mean Julie, when I look at the different indices and all the different things that we're moving today, transports also stood out to me. That was up pretty far. I Mean, did anything change the way we started the show from yesterday to today? Fundamentally, what do you make of the action today? Is it about not wanting to be short, going into a weekend ahead of the holiday? Any of that at play here?

[F]

Yeah, I mean, I think, look, if you go back 10, 15 years by the dip has worked every single time. You know, it's not the Ron burgundy. This works 60% of the time. It's all the time. And so I think people do look for these opportunities because they've really paid off for them. But I think it's notable that today what you saw was actually a little bit more quality than what we had typically been seeing. When we had big rallies like this where it was favoring lower quality, higher beta, no earnings kinds of names. Today, it felt actually more broad based. You had transports really participating, and they have just been a wasteland. So I think that's kind of an interesting dynamic to pay attention to because it feels like it's driven by real economics rather than just pure sentiment and excitement.

[A]

Very interesting. I mean, there were just so many things at play. And when we're talking about next week, obviously we know that it is a holiday. So we're going to have this day off in the middle or towards the end of the week, rather, and then a half day the next day. Julia, I just want to stick with you for a second. I mean, how would you be positioning if you're talking about, like, buying the dip pays off. You want to keep using that strategy throughout the week if that's. That's where we end up starting the week on Monday?

[F]

Well, I mean, I think that, look, when you have a market that is this levered to a single theme, that is what creates a lot of fragility, and I think that's what's creating a lot of volatility. You're seeing so many reports coming out from all of the different research agencies that are talking about, is there overbuilding? Does this look like Cloud 1.0? Probably not. It doesn't look like the economics of when we move to the cloud look quite the same. They look worse. Because then we used kind of commodity software, commodity hardware, and here we're using very expensive, expensive, very, very expensive hardware that's depreciating much, much more quickly. And so that changes the economics pretty dramatically. And I think that people are starting to recognize, hey, wait a minute, what about the economics? If the returns aren't there, do I really want to be invested in this? And I think that's more of an open question.

[C]

Now.

[A]

Yeah. You don't want to just trade on hope. Right. You want to see some real results and wonder when those are going to show up. I do want to get more on bitcoin as promised. Like we've mentioned, prices crumbling this week. The cryptocurrency falling into the 80,000 handle before bouncing. That's its lowest since early April. CNBC's MacKenzie Seagalas has more on the drop. And Mackenzie, I heard you say earlier this morning that you see some similarities between what's happening now and in 2022, if I'm remembering correctly. Talk me through what you're seeing now and why you think we're seeing it. Yeah. So that bounce came after one of bitcoin's worst weeks in months, really showing echoes to the 2022 sell off or that same period in the having cycle where typically Bitcoin comes 80% off of its highs. But what I will say that is different around is that we're seeing selling pressure mounting from macro uncertainty ETF outflows, which was not a factor the last time around, and then growing anxiety around one of crypto's biggest corporate holders. Strategy shares have been sliding on fears that the company could be kicked out of the MSCI index. The group proposed new rules last month that would exclude firms where more than half of total assets are in crypto currencies. A decision on that is expected January 15, a date that JP Morgan calls pivotal for strategy shares. The bank says that the company could face billions in forced selling if it's removed from the MSCI index. And keep in mind that over $9 billion of strategies market cap is currently held by passive funds. And that's really helped bitcoin exposure quietly flow into mainstream portfolios. But that could flip if the exclusion goes through. And then on top of that, and you guys were discussing this just a minute ago, some of the digital asset trusts have been selling the crypto on their books to fund share buybacks as their prices fall below net asset value. And hedge funds that were once long crypto and short strategy are now unwinding those trades after big gains. Both of those moves adding to the selling pressure that we've seen in the market this week. Court really interesting stuff and that's good context for me. I always learn something when you're on. Thank you very much, Mac. Karen, what do you make of sort of those other conclusions that Mac brought up there about the msci?

[D]

Well, I think the strategy to me is really sort of at the center of it all. It was the biggest Right. And when we think about sort of, I mean, over the last three years, since the last time there was a bitcoin fall of this magnitude, this has grown, I don't know how tenfold, maybe more. And at some point, I mean, there's this, this vicious cycle going on now. People are concerned, they're selling bitcoin and that makes them concerned about, oh, well, will strategy have to sell their bitcoin? What does that do to the, you know, will they have margin calls? Will they have to continue to sell? I don't know where it's going to stop. I think that it's probably bottoming out here would be my guess. And I think the last super down market was Sam Bankman fried. And the whole idea of you can't trust bitcoin, that you can't trust who owns it, you can't trust, you know, that a lot of bad actors in it. And now it's been very much institutionalized. And I feel like the risk, that risk is no longer surrounding it. So I feel like it's sort of bottoming out. And if I owned none, I probably, I do own some. I've owned some for a long time.

[B]

She's a Hodler.

[D]

I'm a Hodler.

[C]

Yeah, very much.

[A]

Which I learned a lot about today. That's hodling. It's not yodeling and it's not holding.

[D]

Yes.

[A]

In the bitcoin vernacular, if I own.

[D]

None, I would probably get started very small.

[B]

I think the fact that we're even having this conversation about the tail wagging the dog is tells you where this asset class is. I mean, I think who would have expected. And all in the Hodler camp probably think it's fantastic that CNBC is talking about how bitcoin volatility took down the market over the last week. And so I guess I don't really think so. And I think you have a case where, first of all, I've said this a few times this week and probably the first couple look pretty stupid. Might sound stupid on Monday too, if you continue to sell off. Of all the things that sold off in the fluffland. And I'm not talking about semiconductor companies like Nvidia, I'm talking about fluff. I'm talking about quantum. I'm talking about real AI stuff that makes no sense. I'm talking about stuff in. In rare earths. I'm talking about. So I mean, absolutely, bitcoin is the one I'm least worried about. And wasn't it back in April that we fell 30% in Bitcoin. I mean, I find myself like, I don't need to die on the hill of Hodlers. And it's weird to me to sound so bullish on bitcoin, but that's to me, not really the issue. We had a 30% pullback in April, again, at a time of intense volatility, even more volatility. So I'm not that worried about it. I think, I think the market was concerned about the Fed. I think the market was concerned about circular ideals. I think the market became very concerned about the profitability and the change in character from being free cash flow machines. Of the five other most important companies in the world that are the most crowded trade in the world. I mean, that's really where we've come. And I think, again, it's. It's interesting that bitcoin is this conversation or, you know, broader crypto, because it has been wild. But Michael Saylor and his strategy we've talked about for a couple years. And at different times when it's gotten dicey, the same conversation comes up. I'm not, I'm not here to talk about whether he's, he's in, you know, it's difficult times or not bad times at all. I just think we've been here before.

[A]

Before we move on. Just really quick to button up this conversation. And maybe this is silly, but Thanksgiving is coming. I feel like gold wine starts to come up at the dinner table when your uncle and your aunt start asking, should I get into bitcoin? Remember that was that first craze that sort of started around that Thanksgiving time and then things went higher.

[C]

Uber driver asked you about it, right?

[A]

I'm not trying to, I'm not trying to be flippant. I am really serious. Well, I mean, get around and I mean, my family might be asking me some questions and I'm trying to, you know, is everyone bullish? We feel like this.

[C]

I think there's a lot of. Anyone who wants to buy bitcoin now could buy through an etf. It's easier than it ever used to be.

[A]

Okay, that's a great, That's a great answer. Okay, because I'm, I'm not going to be the market predictor of this.

[B]

Don't disappoint your uncle.

[G]

Right?

[A]

I know, I know. Anyway, meantime, the BLS is saying today that the October CPI will not be released because of the government shutdown. Now the November report will be delayed by a week to December 18th. So this leaves the Fed with no new inflation data before Its next decision on December 10th. At least no government inflation data. So for more about what this could mean for the markets for the potential decision, CNBC contributor Peter Bocvar joins us now. He is also the CIO at one point. BFG Wealth Partners cio. So Peter, we were talking a little bit about this with the Fed and how John Williams sort of opened up the door to like look, yeah, maybe, maybe we're, we're going to have another cut. We're not, we don't have the door open, we don't have the door shut. What do you think about where the Fed is thinking and what data they're going to be using to make this decision?

[E]

Well, what stood out about what William said is being the New York Fed president having a vote at every meeting. What he says usually very much matters. And I have to believe that he did not write this speech and give it without Jay Powell knowing. Now, if he was just a regional Fed president giving his opinion. Okay, we got it. But because of his position at the New York Fed, to me that was a signal that they're more likely than not cutting interest rates. And of course we've had that big move in the Fed funds futures today. I think with respect to data, I know we want to see the hard data from the government, but there's still so much information out there. Even just the Fed's Beige book provides a ton of information at all different levels of the economy. So they still have a pretty good sense of things. So they're not flying blind in this meeting. I think if they feel like that the labor market is weakening, they're less worried about inflation, they'll cut. But there's going to be dissension we are going to have over the upcoming meetings until we have a next Fed chair. More dissents than we've ever had at each meeting.

[A]

Yeah, it is very interesting to see where the Fed is sitting right now. It feels like something we haven't seen in at least a very long time. What do you make about the job picture? It seems like every day we get a new announcement from a pretty decent sized company laying off workers. And it's not necessarily the lowest tier workers, but maybe some of these mid level workers and engineers at Amazon. Are you starting to worry more about the labor market? Have we flipped the conversation of the mandate where inflation is less of an issue? It's still elevated but sort of staying where it is around three. But now we need to really be careful about jobs.

[E]

Well, we do, but one of the reasons why the economy has pockets of weakness is because of that inflation. It's because inflation is a 3% or more for other people that are living it every day. It's that depressant on consumer behavior, particularly lower middle income consumers, that is causing these pockets of weakness in the economy. So I know we try to look at it one or the other, but it's the inflation that's causing the worries about the economy which is causing worries about the labor market. Now with respect to large businesses, yes, those are the high profile ones when the companies announce these big layoffs. But there are some netting out of that. The jobless claim numbers is still relatively low. Most of the job reduction in hiring started in April with small medium sized businesses. So what's happening with bigger companies now we have to pay attention to. But this is a really delicate balance. But I do want to make an important point here is that what we've seen so far in the yield curve is that while the Fed is cutting short term interest rates, long term interest rates are not going down. We're seeing that in Europe as well. So yeah, maybe we get that extra rate cut, but if the 10 year yield is not falling, somebody who's looking to buy a house is still not getting any relief.

[D]

Peter, it's Karen, thanks for being on. I have a technical question I'm just curious about. Let's say you had five members who wanted to cut, five members who wanted to keep steady and all the rest had other opinions. What happens in that scenario?

[E]

I think Jay Powell would be the decider, but that would be an interesting scenario, Karen, for sure. But I think Powell's tenure and the tenure of his predecessors is very much trying to get to a consensus. So I think he already has the votes to get what he wants.

[C]

For.

[E]

Certainly cutting with other governors being Bowman, Waller and now the New York Fed president, John Williams. So if he wants to cut, he's got the votes. If he wants to push back against them, well then he'll have to rely on some Fed presidents. But he's got four meetings left. I think he will be the end decider if that scenario came about.

[A]

Got it. Peter, thank you so much for joining us on a Friday and ahead of a big week for a lot of reasons and also ahead of that Fed decision. Julie, what do you make of what Peter has to say here and what are your thoughts on where the Fed is going to go?

[F]

Well, I completely agree with him and I think the incremental layer of complexity that not a lot of people talk about is just the change in immigration has had a pretty profound impact. We had a labor shock in terms of, you know, many, many more people coming into the country, which really did a lot to kind of lower wage inflation and boost economic growth. And now we're seeing the reversal of that. And so it is actually very hard for the Fed to know what is a weakening job market versus what are just fewer people coming in the door. I think that's true if you look at Walmart earnings too. Right. They talk about that weakness in the low income consumer. And I have a suspicion that it's also the case that there are just fewer people coming in. So I think that's what makes it very difficult for them to really be able to ascertain the strength of the labor market. It's clearly where they're more focused. I think they really see that as the place they have to go. But I am not convinced yet that it's really a case that the labor market has deteriorated rapidly. I really think it's the components of the labor market have just changed.

[G]

Hmm.

[A]

That's a really interesting thought. And I know I have tried to get at that with some of the retailers and ask them some of these questions. Immigration policies, if that's impacted it, haven't gotten real straightforward answers. It's hard for them to say yes or no, at least what they're telling me. Thank you so much, Julie. Well, coming up, a round of all the retail moves this week. The results that we got from some of the biggest names and then what's at stake when the holiday shopping season kicks off in earnest next week. But also there's a lot of retail earnings we got to get through first. Plus big gains in restaurants, airlines and home builders. What our traders make of today's sector rebounds and then which names they're sticking with. You don't want to go anywhere. Fast money is back in two. At Capella University. Learning the right skills could make a difference.

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Welcome back to Best Money. The countdown has begun. We're just over a month away from Christmas. I'm wearing red. I have red shoes on. And investors Got a good read on the retail space this week. Wal Mart and TJX hiking forecasts ahead of the holiday shopping season as cash strapped consumers search for deals at their stores. Shares of Gap jumping after the company topped EPS and revenue expectations. Target, meanwhile, cut its profit outlook as shoppers skipped trips to that big box retail chain. We've also got some disappointing consumer sentiment data this morning. Near the lowest levels in history. Discretionary, one of the worst performing sectors on the S and P this week. Karen, you're in this space. We chat about it a lot. It was hard to pull on a common thread because what Wal Mart said felt so different from what Target said. Home Depot and Lowe's really pointed to macroeconomic pressures. I know obviously their product composition is not going to be the same as a tjx, so you can't compare them. How are you feeling going into Black Friday and the retail reports that are still to come? Best Buy, Abercrombie and Fitch, Kohl's Urban Outfitters.

[D]

Yeah. So a couple really, really stood out to me. To me, the most interesting thing was tjx, which was fantastic. But the thing that I loved the most was that their inventory came in well higher than what the street was expecting, which normally you don't like that for a retailer because that means they're going to have to discount it to sell it.

[A]

Yeah.

[D]

But because they are so good at trading inventory, they see this as future margin. And so, so if they see it and they give a pretty good outlook, you've got to think they have this. They have some good, good line of sight here. Yep. So I really like that. The only, only thing not to like about TJX is that it isn't cheap at all.

[A]

Not at all.

[D]

The only other part of the spectrum, Abercrombie, is ridiculously cheap. And I feel like, you know, people out there, analysts have been lowering their estimates, which I always think not based on anything, but it comes from the body language from the company. They want to lower the bar so that they are able to step over it. Step over it, trip over it even. I mean, this is it, you know, at 6, 7 times earnings for a company that is not debt laden, that. Right there's. So this one I find very intriguing. It's going one way or another. My suspicion is higher, but I have thought that for a long time and been wrong.

[A]

It's funny with Abercrombie because for a long, long time, I want to say like six, seven quarters in a row. If I looked at all the retail players, I was like you know who had the best quarter? Abercrombie.

[B]

Yep.

[A]

Over and over and over again. Of course it's a little bit smaller. It's you know, not the same kind of retailer as a Walmart but it was quietly performing and then it started sort of moving lower but it wasn't like the fundamentals fell apart.

[D]

So it was the rate of growth had slowed, right? There was still growth but the rate of growth had slowed and people just thought oh we can count on them every time. And then all of a sudden they couldn't. So the multiple is too high. And then they did have a bad quarter. Abercrombie label was difficult. Hollister was very good. We'll see what happens now. But this one I think to me is the most potential upside.

[A]

What's your read on the consumer after this week Steve?

[C]

Well, it's whoever managed their inventories the best. And Karen touched on with TJ Max where everyone else's era was their tailwind. RAW stores, TJ Max where if you've over ordered or in any that's not under order, if you've over ordered in whatever retailer that you're in, TJ just takes that and they're the ones who could haggle with you the best. So Ross Stores, TJX, Walmart, the E commerce growth 28% that was huge. So if you're looking at these, very rarely in this time period do you see the ones that can't execute actually surprise the market. Abercrombie surprised the market a while back and now it's just left for dead. And I think people are just sticking with the winners right now because, because the ambiguity with the whole market, especially retail tariffs, layoffs, the consumer sentiment is extremely low. I think you want to go with the ones that have won and have a proven track record.

[B]

I was just going to say there's no question that that has worked. But this was a week where I'd actually like to buy one of the losers. I mean I liked what Target said. I like that their grocery business is better. I like that they're ready to compete on price and you can't compete with Walmart.

[G]

Walmart.

[B]

But I do think they need a stronger grocery to cement cement the rest of the business. And I would say those numbers this week were interesting. Walmart, Wal Mart wins and they're now trading on the NASDAQ or soon will be because they think they're a tech company and I think that's reason to buy them.

[A]

Julie, I want to get you in here quickly. You know When I spoke with the Gap CEO Richard Dickson and asked him specifically about the consumer cohorts because obviously their Old Navy brand caters a little bit more to a lower income consumer, but they also have mid and, and call it maybe the lower high end with Banana Republic. And he said, look, we're not really seeing any cracks in any of those. And as a matter of fact, the Old Navy business did really well and they sold products without having to discount a lot, which I thought was a pretty powerful message. Any read through in any of this to figure out the health of the consumer, meaning it sounds like sentiment is bad, but if you have good stuff at prices that consumers find value, they're going to buy it.

[F]

Value is the key right now in retail because people are so value starved and it actually doesn't matter what income cohort you're talking about. Everyone is tired of how much they pay for things. And that frustration really reads through in terms of foot traffic. I think if you're positioning with a retailer though, in front of holiday, you want to stick with ones that do have good momentum because what they have is they have traffic. What you don't want is to be positioning yourselves for Christmas when you are at a retailer where people have kind of come in two or three times, decided it's not for them anymore, they don't like it, the sweaters, whatever it is, and they really lose that traffic momentum and they're really unable to put it back together for Christmas and the holiday season. You go into the mall, you want to go to the standbys that you know are going to deliver. You don't have time, you're exhausted, you're stressed. That's why it's really important to find follow the ones that really have the momentum at their back at this time of year.

[A]

Don't worry, I will give you guys very specific Christmas lists. I will not waste your time. You'll know exactly what to get me and where to go. There's a lot more fast money though, still to come. Here's what's coming up next.

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Plus, a read from the debt markets.

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What we can expect in the world.

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Of credit in the new year.

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Relevant skills you can take from the course room to the workplace. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at capella. Edu welcome back to BEST money. It's been a bumpy week for markets, but some sectors are wrapping up on a particularly high note today. Restaurant stocks in rally mode, Kava, Sweetgreen each surging double digits with dine brands, Wingstop and Dutch Bros. Also firmly in the green and airlines flying high. We talked about transports in general earlier Southwest, American, Alaska, Delta each rising between between 4 and 5%. Finally, the housing trade getting a boost. The ITV Home Construction ETF soaring 5% for its best day since August. Homebuilders Dr. Horton, Lennar and Pulte Group leading the charge there. Julie, which group, if any, do you like here? I have to say I was really surprised about the homebuilder trade after hearing from Lowe's and Home Depot saying, look, people are still putting off these bigger projects. Things did not accelerate like we thought they would in the quarter. So what's going on today with some of the homebuilder stocks?

[F]

You know, I think there has to be kind of a recognition that we're under housed. And regardless of what's happening with existing home buyers, they have figured out how to get people to come into the market if they buy down the rates. And so even if we don't get as much rate hope as we're hoping, they can be well positioned for the long term. You just have to pick the right ones.

[A]

All right, Julie, thank you. We have to move on real quick because we do have a news alert on Bill Ackman's Pershing Square. We've got Steve Kobach standing by with the details. Steve, what's going on with this?

[C]

Hey there, Court. Yeah. Financial Times reporting that Bill Ackman's Pershing Square is eyeing to go public sometime in early 2026. And they're citing sources familiar with the matter saying Ackman has been telling some investors in his $21 billion hedge fund that he's planning to go for that IPO early next year. Not a ton of other details in here, just some more clarity on timing. I know this has been talked about quite a bit there, but early 2026, a potential IPO for Pershing Court.

[A]

Thank you very much. Appreciate that. Steve Kobach. Well, coming up, we are turning our attention to the credit markets in 2026. What our next guest sees in store for the space in the new year when FAST MONEY returns. Welcome back to fast money. 30 year JGB yields trading near all time highs as investors bail out of the yen and government bonds. Earlier this week, Japanese officials approved a massive stimulus package, the biggest since the pandemic, to help navigate the economy through a rough patch. Meanwhile, Moody's Ratings is out with its global outlook for the year ahead, forecasting steady but subdued economic growth in 2026amid rising risks tied to geopolitics, trade and market disruptions. For more on the findings is Moody's Credit. Moody's Ratings chief credit officer Otzi Shatay. She joins us now. Thank you so much for being here with us. I guess we started talking about Japan, but let's talk about the global expectations right now. So sort of let's start big and then go a little more narrow. What are you looking at for 2026 for global credit globally?

[G]

Sure. From the macro side, Courtney, two things in the favor are that growth has been pretty resilient and we expect it to continue to be so. So for the US around 2%. The global economy as a whole, two and a half percent. And the other part of it is that rates will be more accommodative as the year goes forward. So that's the positive on the risk risks. It's what you pointed to, which is that geopolitics means that there's a lot of policy uncertainty and that tends to be negative for credit. And the other thing I will say is that particularly US Growth has become quite anchored to the technology sector and any change in the outlook for that sector could have broader repercussions.

[A]

Sure. Okay. So that's global. So then I Think the next way we could break it down is go developed economies versus emerging economies or emerging markets markets. What are your expectations for those two?

[G]

One, within emerging markets and we still count China within that group. Growth has been again resilient, 5% growth. China has been resilient to the trade shock of the tariffs so far. Emerging markets in general quite buoyant. So emerging market growth is actually holding up. The weak dollar is helping some in some ways, you know, in terms of debt repayment, advanced economies, Europe from very weak levels, slightly positive outlook for growth. The US actually slightly coming off. So last year's growth was about, you know, close to 3%. This year it'll be to next year about 2, 2% as well. But in the US the real upside comes from the rate declines that we're expecting this year.

[B]

Otzi, it's Tim. So let's talk about Japan because I am concerned. I trade Japan. I'm long Japan actually on the equity side, this breakout in JGB yields is a function of fiscal spending, although on some in some parts of the world it's actually a relief. I mean Takechi is following a Trump like approach to fiscal spending. European Union seems to want to spend and actually if you're Germany, it's great news. And slightly higher bond yields I think are ok. Are you? Japan seems like a ticking time bomb. However I look at the currency which is about to go to all time lows or test those lows from last year here and JGB yields haven't been here in 20 years. Is this reason for concern?

[G]

You know I would say that this is really telling us that Japan's structure, the economy structure is changing really from, from a period of deflation, very low growth to now reflation and positive growth. So that's actually positive and the market is adjusting really to the, to what that means for rates, rates. So I wouldn't say that this is necessarily a time bomb. I would say this is a structural shift and any time that you have a big shift like this, you're going to see frictions in the market this time sort of responding to fiscal spending which again that has always been a weak point for Japan. Very high debt and an aging population. So that doesn't change and I think that's what the market is reacting to now.

[A]

Thank you so much for this. It's an interesting report. Obviously you're putting out your global expectations for 2026 for credit. Thank you Karen.

[D]

Well, the JGB part is really interesting to me. Is it like the US in 2021 right? Where we stimulate growth has been not great. There is some inflation already and then you create a real inflation situation. You know, you have deficits like we do. GDP growth not big enough to support but. But not a time bomb. Right now. I don't know, it's I'm long, I'm long dxj which is the ETF in Japan that adjusts for the currency and I think in the short run it's a party. I really do. I don't know TV well, it's.

[B]

He's really keyed in on the fact this is just new times in Japan and to the extent it hasn't been necessary, it's not a new theme in terms of a lot of debt. But the question is, are they juicing up the economy in a way that actually they've been longing for some inflation? Careful what you wish for. They're going to have 3% inflation. In fact that's the target market coming up. So I worry about strength in that currency for an export based economy at least for a lot of the names that have done very well. And as I say, you know, we're long that naive. I think this is a case where for a while this is going to work as long as we don't get that growth scare. And I do think it's Japan, it's not Greece. I think it's a case where that that debt load is something that's very, very serviceable.

[A]

Got it. Well, coming up, going once, going twice, who's going to win the bid for Warner Brothers Discovery? The media giants putting in their offers and the assets are up for grabs. Fast money back into. Fast money after a bumpy week for the markets. We wanted to ask our traders what stocks are on their watch list. Let's start with Tim.

[B]

I tell you what, you have a pullback in some of the biggest companies in the world and sometimes it's not all that difficult to look at high quality names that have given you a correction Amazon on what we heard in terms of what was going on with us that growth where we know they are in terms of as a hyperscaler but where are they in terms of AI and the platform but ultimately the valuation. So a stock that's down small year to date or flat year to date with a multiple that looks very cheap at least in Amazon terms with reinforced guidance and actually some strength and a pickup in the one part of the business you want growing. It's definitely Amazon. If it's not the name Karen's going to give.

[D]

Oh, what are you Going to give Metta. Okay, so I bought some more Meta this week. Not at the low, effectively from selling puts the same as getting long. So what I like about it is valuation is trading it under a market multiple. For a company that is so clearly beyond an average market multiple kind of business. Everyone knows why it's down so much. It's the spend. It wasn't the quarter at all. The quarter, in fact was. Was really, really good, showing that AI has dramatically improved their underlying business and likely will continue to do so. And so it's down 25% from the peak. And this is a spigot they can turn on or off. We've seen them do it in the past with the metaverse, spend and then the year of efficiency. I don't think next year is the year of efficiency. I think it's the year of spend, spend, spend still, which is not my favorite. But I think it creates an opportunity in the stock for an extraordinary business. So Meta.

[A]

Meta.

[C]

Okay, I'll start with Boeing. So Boeing, for me, I bought it terribly wrong in timing. I bought it around $200 and then the market fell out. So for me, it's returning to consistent free cash flow in 2026, ramping 737, 787 Triple 7s production. It got pulled into the market. Sell off. This is a stock that you saw the criminal charges were dropped. So there's an awful lot of tailwinds that you should see some lift off. It was a market timing lift that's unintended.

[D]

Plus defense.

[C]

Yeah, it's what?

[D]

Plus defense.

[C]

Plus defense. And. And a duopoly. Right. So there's all these things that really work for. And you're starting to get some clarity. I think the stock could trade to mid-200 again and you're getting an incredible buying opportunity.

[A]

Okay, Julie, what do you got for us?

[F]

You know, all of small cap software has been an absolute wasteland, but Tyler's probably one of the highest quality names and they serve state and local government business. I'm not really that worried about those guys getting on the cutting bleeding edge of adopting AI. I think they're going to be fine. And it's trading at a nice multiple now for a change.

[A]

All right, good stuff. I love the variety. Coming up, the company is making a bid for Warner Brothers Discovery. And who will come out on top more fast into. Welcome back to Fast Money. Warner Brothers discovery up 1.3% after several media companies submitted bids for the media business. Comcast, our parent company, currently Paramount, and Netflix among the names hoping to acquire parts of or all of the company. So for more, let's bring in CNBC's Julia Borson. Julia, where do things stand? Well, Courtney, no comment from Warner Brothers Discovery, but sources close to the situation tell me that Paramount Skydance made another bid for all of wbd, Netflix and Comcast making offers for WBD studios and streaming division. Now Netflix notably promising to continue theatrical distribution if this deal goes through. Now Warner Brothers Discovery will be going back to the bidders with questions and it'll also be evaluating how to compare the apples and oranges bid. Sources tell me that it is key for Warner Brothers Discovery to figure out the value of its linear business that Netflix and Comcast are not interested in. Now with each part of the with part of each bit equity, the board is looking at the upside potential of each of the deals. Comcast has the advantage of synergies bringing sports rights plus its theme parks. Netflix has streaming scale. Those sources flag that it could flag scrutiny as the largest subscription streaming player. Paramount, meanwhile, sources say is touting an advantage getting regulatory approval. Now sources tell me that while Warner Brothers Discovery is hoping to finalize the sale by Christmas. That's ambitious and these deals do often take longer. Back over to you. Very interesting, Julia. A lot of intrigue. Tim, I want to give you one quick comment on this one.

[B]

Some of the parts Warner Brothers is worth more than its trading today. I'm long so that's what I think. I do think that HBO and makes a lot of sense for Netflix. I do think there are parts of the linear TV that might make sense for cable operators. I do think there's a case where at least Peace Guy really believes that having all the creative, all of the studio and combining that with efficiencies on distribution is a home run for them. And I think they could buy it and then sell off pieces or this will be in different pieces.

[A]

Very interesting stuff. Up next, it's already time for your final trades. Final trade time. Julie, what you got?

[F]

You know, for my animals, Analog girlies and advanced drainage is laying some solid pipe earnings and it's worth checking out.

[A]

Tim, Punch me.

[B]

Courtney, thank you for joining us. Amazon. That's my traders trade.

[D]

Karen yes, thank you Courtney. Who's good enough for the F block, good enough for the final trade meta.

[C]

Steve Etherium I'm calling a bottom and if it doesn't work I'll call another one next week.

[A]

I like it. Thank you for watching Fast Money. Mad Money starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of cnbc, NBC Universal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable and but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer with stays under $250 a night, Vrbo makes it easy to celebrate sweater weather.

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