Stocks Bounce Back After Rough Week… And China Jumps Ahead Of A Big Week 3/14/25

Summary

CNBC's "Fast Money" Podcast Summary
Episode: Stocks Bounce Back After Rough Week… And China Jumps Ahead Of A Big Week
Release Date: March 14, 2025

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1. Market Rebound Amidst Uncertainty

On March 14, 2025, CNBC's "Fast Money" hosted by Melissa Lee discussed a significant rebound in the U.S. stock market following a tumultuous week. The S&P 500 recorded its best day of the year, signaling a potential relief rally despite ongoing economic concerns.

• Melissa Lee highlighted the day's performance:
  “US Stocks surging to cap off what has been an otherwise ugly week. The S&P notching its best day of the year.” [00:43]

• Despite the day's gains, Steve Grasso expressed cautious optimism:
  “So not shocked. I mean it's not shocking after such a bad week that we would bounce some and sort of a bit of an air pocket up.” [04:02]

2. Senate Vote and Government Funding

A critical topic was the Senate's vote on advancing the government funding bill to avert a shutdown until the end of September. The bill garnered bipartisan support, reflecting a unified stance against a shutdown despite previous disagreements.

• Emily Wilkins reported:
  “We are on that critical vote to advance the government funding bill that would keep the government funded until the end of September, avoiding a government shutdown.” [02:05]

• Melissa Lee questioned the implications of potential government cuts:
  “And then of course, the big question is Republicans have said that they are going to be making cuts here. Do those cuts have?” [02:47]

3. Nvidia's Big Event and Market Implications

A pivotal event discussed was Nvidia's upcoming GTC conference, anticipated to influence the stock's trajectory and broader market sentiment.

• Tim Seymour analyzed Nvidia's position:
  “What’s going to get us back up? Maybe the tech sector but I don’t think you’re going to see the follow through in Nvidia’s back to $120 something.” [06:01]

• Courtney Garcia emphasized Nvidia's unique standing:
  “Nvidia is the only game in town and I still think that capex spend is not something we should be challenging.” [17:05]

4. International Markets and China's Rally

China's stock market experienced a notable surge, raising questions about the sustainability of this momentum amidst impending economic data releases.

• Duartrick McNeil offered insights on China's performance:
  “I think you have a bull's case to be made. I do think we have to be cautious. I think the overnight trading is perhaps a little premature, but I do see some room to run on the backs of China's sector.” [34:46]

• Courtney Garcia highlighted the strategic importance of China's tech sectors:
  “We have to see what is announced and what the time horizon is, which is also important here.” [35:14]

5. Performance of Key Stocks: Tesla, Ulta, and Kering

The episode delved into specific stock performances, including Tesla's challenges in the Chinese market, Ulta's earnings surge, and Kering's struggles.

• Phil LeBeau discussed Tesla's market strategy in China:
  “If Tesla can get a Model Y stripped down version or not down closer to $30,000, that will have a better shot of competing against some very intense competition in China.” [21:06]

• Karen Feinerman commented on Ulta's performance:
  “I think some of that was just like a pop on some of that news. It does trade at a discount to its like longer term historical averages.” [39:40]

• Steve Grasso expressed concerns over Kering's strategic choices:
  “This was really, really not well received at all. ... trying to restore Gucci to some other era, this probably wasn't the choice.” [40:58]

6. Heavy Metals on the Rise: Gold and Beyond

Gold reached a historic high, crossing the $3,000 mark for the first time, driven by investor demand for safe-haven assets amidst market volatility.

• Courtney Garcia shared her enthusiasm for gold and other precious metals:
  “I think you’re going to want to own gold and more gold and gold again. I just, you know, so I like the precious metals story.” [28:50]

• Tim Seymour compared the performance of gold miners to pure gold investments:
  “When it goes down, it also outperforms to the downside. Right now GDX, the miners is up 28 or 29% year to date against a GLD that's up 13%.” [30:16]

7. Earnings Focus: FedEx and Retail Stocks

The episode examined upcoming earnings reports, particularly focusing on FedEx's potential performance and its implications for the transportation sector.

• Mike Koh provided strategies for navigating FedEx's earnings:
  “You could potentially play this is with something I call a strangle swap, buying a longer dated strangle.” [43:04]

• Courtney Garcia compared FedEx with UPS:
  “I think you want to own UPS here. And again, I think you've got that pair trade dynamic where you've had multiple compression between UPS and that, you know that premium, it trades over FedEx.” [44:36]

8. Conclusions and Insights

The panelists consistently emphasized the importance of diversification, cautious optimism, and the need to monitor both domestic and international economic indicators to navigate the uncertain market landscape.

• Karen Feinerman advised on investment strategies amidst volatility:
  “I think what you want to continue to buy into some of these... buy these dips.” [07:25]

• Tim Seymour highlighted the evolving leadership within the market sectors:
  “If we want to shrink the trade deficit, that means you also shrink the capital account surplus.” [10:18]

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This episode of "Fast Money" provided a comprehensive overview of the current state of the markets, highlighting both immediate gains and underlying risks. The discussions underscored the delicate balance between optimism fueled by market rebounds and the persistent uncertainties stemming from government policies, international trade tensions, and sector-specific challenges.

Transcript

[Melissa Lee]

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[Karen Feinerman]

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[Karen Feinerman]

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[Melissa Lee]

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[Emily Wilkins]

End of September, avoid a government shutdown. And at this point, it does have the votes to pass. Now, the vote is not final yet. People still could change their minds. But we are now seeing 10 Senate.

[Melissa Lee]

Democrats following Chuck Schumer's lead joining with Republicans to keep the government open. And we're seeing that they have a lot of the same logic that Schumer put forward. They're saying that while they are very.

[Emily Wilkins]

Upset set with what they've seen Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency do in terms of cuts to the.

[Melissa Lee]

Government and to federal employees, they believe that a shutdown would be even worse. So we're waiting for this vote to close. When it does, the Senate is hoping to move very quickly here. We could actually see this bill pass.

[Emily Wilkins]

By the end of the hour averting any sort of government shutdown.

[Melissa Lee]

And then of course, the big question.

[Emily Wilkins]

Is Republicans have said that they are.

[Melissa Lee]

Going to be making cuts here.

[Emily Wilkins]

Exactly when and how and how much.

[Melissa Lee]

Do those cuts have?

[Emily Wilkins]

Because right now all they are doing is continuing funding from the Biden administration.

[Melissa Lee]

Melissa Emily, thank you. Emily wilkins, let's get back to the relief rally on Wall Street. The S and P and Nasdaq both having their best days since the election. And the dow surging nearly 700 points, its best day since January. Still, even with those gains, stocks down sharply since Monday as tariff uncertainty weighs on confidence. The Dow seeing its worst week in two years. The S&P 500 still off more than 8% off its record. High tech more than 12% off its high. But that group led the charge in today's bounce back as investors scooped up MAG7 stock stocks in a big way. Nvidia up over 5%, Tesla up 4%, almost meta Microsoft, Amazon also seeing some pretty big gains. It wasn't just tech rallying today. The travel trade bouncing back ahead of the weekend. Airlines, cruise stocks, casinos, all well in the green and energy up nearly 3%, climbing into the green for the week. It was the best performing sector in the S&P 500 since Monday. But will today's relief rally be sustainable or is there more selling to come? How did you feel about today's gains, Karen?

[Steve Grasso]

So not shocked. I mean it's not shocking after such a bad week that we would bounce some and sort of a bit of an air pocket up. So still though, if you just step back and sort of squint a little, I mean this has been a very, very rough time for the last several weeks. But to be I did, I've done a little buying recently, I did last few days but also today a little buying in Google, a little buying yesterday in Metta. So I think that valuations are attractive. I think we could see another scare for sure. I look at the VIX very closely. It was down reasonably Fair amount today, 21 and change. 2177 or so is where it ended I think. But I don't think it lives here. Either I think it's going back down or it's going back up or both. And so I, I'm always long. So at a week like this terrible. Today was nice but I'm just going to stay that way.

[Tim Seymour]

So I look at the technicals and if you. If you pair up the technicals if you could. If we could show a chart of the S and P and go back to October of 2023 it looks very similar to price action and what I mean by that was in October 2023, seven days it was actually two days below the 200 day moving average. One day above six days below total of eight combined. We're at five right now below what made us rip the Powell pivot back then we're not going to get a Powell pivot so I think we could last a little bit longer but not terribly longer. So what's going to get us back up? Maybe the tech sector but I don't think you're going to see the follow through in video is back to 120 something. When it faded it was right around $120. I had thought it would get to 90. It's. It got down to 104ish. I think we're going to see another test But I do think that Microsoft and other stocks and Metta and Amazon and Google can rally at the expense of Nvidia. I think we're going to hear from them that they're working on a next extremely expensive chip.

[Melissa Lee]

We're not.

[Tim Seymour]

That's not going to drive Nvidia higher. What's going to drive Nvidia hires when they start working on cheaper chips. Cheaper chicken. Remember that movie? So working on cheaper chips so that they can expand and box out their competition. I think this leaves the ability for all other capex to come in drastically deep seek changed it. If the other ones come in and cut their capex by 75% that's going to be years of efficiency for them. It's going to be years of decline for Nvidia. So I think in video fails the others rally according.

[Melissa Lee]

What do you make of this rally?

[Karen Feinerman]

Yeah and I think that when you're seeing how much the markets have sold off over the last couple of weeks it's clearly very sentiment driven. When you see a big pullback like this that typically is just a standard correction it's not really something like a larger bear market which tends to happen kind of more slow and steady and a little bit more unnoticed. And I think this is probably an opportunity that you want to continue to buy into some of these. I think my only hesitation is you're seeing people are willing to come in. So days like days, days like today, people are coming and buying into the markets to kind of anecdotally speaking we always get a handful of clients who will call us and they will panic out and they will, regardless what we're saying, will want to sell out of the markets. We haven't had any of that. We're having people calling us say hey should we add some more here? Which is kind of like contrarily makes you say I don't know for the end of this quite yet but I do think they're buying opportunities. I don't know if today's the end of it, but still buy these dips.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah. Tim, do you feel better about the markets today having seen the rally or do you feel worse? I mean did you, do you think that we've seen that bottom has a war is a worse in terms of all the volatility behind us?

[Courtney Garcia]

No, I don't think so. I mean today was a combination of government shutdown averted, way, way, way oversold. We had RSI levels so relative strength indicators that on, on a short term basis whereas oversold as we've seen going back to March of 23 but really back to kind of bot Covid. I think you have a dynamic where just you know, sentiment wise for the investor community. This is, you know, this was due to happen today. I think this was a day also. You are looking at the names that you want to own but I'm not sure that anything really changed. And unfortunately that confidence number we got really was a microcosm of all that is uncertain. We had expectations on spending down. It was, it was a stagflationary consumer confidence number and it wasn't a great number. But the market had to rally. And again if you think about where we were, we, we've, we've basically taken half of the 22 bear market is, is rallied and excuse me, is sold off. And in just a month's time this has been so extreme that we were oversold. We were due for a bounce. But you know, the things that have me say I don't know where we really get out of this are some of the things to oversimplify. I do believe that the international outperformance is, is not just because the fundamentals are so much better. It's more just. I do think we're going to have a period where the US exceptionalism story has challenges from all over the place. I think the Trump put, no one really knows where that is. But the strike price on that Trump put is probably moving lower. Whether it's the Fed put is higher or lower than that, probably lower. So there's, there's very little relief for the markets in the short term. As we know there are more tariffs coming April 2nd. As we know, companies are starting to talk about the impact on earnings. So I do think this is an opportunity to find great companies and I think people are exploring those companies outside of the Mag 7 and I think that makes sense.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah, the sentiment data was terrible this morning. Terrible. And the markets not only shrugged it off, but they rallied on the back of it afterwards.

[Steve Grasso]

I get, I mean I think what Tim was saying, the relief.

[Melissa Lee]

Right.

[Steve Grasso]

How bad it's been as well as the crisis averted, which I think people weren't really expecting that to be a real crisis but just so overdone that there had to be a little bounce back. But the, the inflation number being up and the sentiment be that was, that was interesting that the market was behaved this way.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah. We'll see what the jobs number holds. Our next guest sees more market pain ahead. CNBC contributor Peter Brookvar is the chief Investment officer at Bleakly Financial Group. Peter, great to see you in person. So more pain ahead and not only more pain, but we're going to see a transitional leadership which I thought was interesting that the best days in the Mag seven are gone in terms of.

[Emily Wilkins]

Their market dominance, in terms of them carrying the weight of the entire market where the top seven stocks made up 35% of the S and P. I think to what Steve said, the deep seq news was game changing and the market needs to pass the baton on to something else. It already started passing it on to international markets and maybe it'll find the value trade in small mid caps. But also there are other big picture things that are happening here. If our plan as a government is to cut the budget deficit relative to GDP from 7% to 3%, well, the 7% level was a massive fiscal blowout that showed up in the private sector, showed up in corporate profits, showed up in economic growth. So while it's a very good thing to get control of our debts and deficits in the short term, it's going to have a very negative impact on economic activity. Now where they go from here with that we'll have to see, of course, but they're like mega trends that I think are reversing to the point where the playbook that worked so well over the last couple of years. Throw it away. It's not going to work. The world's changing. We're at major inflection points I believe in the markets. And then you throw in of course with tariffs and everything and how that's going to go. If we want to shrink the trade deficit, that means you also shrink the capital account surplus. Capital account surplus had a lot of money flowing into the US. Foreigners own $17 trillion of US stocks. If we want to shrink the deficit, well that pile is going to shrink. They're going to take their money home. I think that's one of the reasons why the dollar has weakened. As the MAG7 stocks have fallen, the dollar has fallen as well. So there are a lot of big picture things going on here that again throw out the playbook that has worked so well.

[Melissa Lee]

So what will be the leadership at least here in the United States?

[Emily Wilkins]

So that is the big question is where. Who's taking that baton. I think that the value growth divergence got so extreme that it could be the other 493 stocks. It could be small mid cap, but I think international. This is not just a one or two quarter outperformance. This is potentially a multi year outperformance relative to US stocks.

[Steve Grasso]

So let me just take the other side of some of that and I'm speaking my book because I am long a lot of mag 7 but when I think about the over underperformance of the Mag 7 they got a lot of good things going for them in terms of huge cash stockpiles. Right. They've got gross margins that are tremendous. They're not unlike some other industries where margins can really get hit. Tariffs isn't relevant here and the valuations have come down a lot. They're below market. So I understand the market can absolutely go down. But to me they seem relatively more safe than some of the other areas that might not be able to withstand. You know, logistics, supply chain, all that kind of thing.

[Emily Wilkins]

Like I agree with everything you said but in terms of taking the market with it and literally carrying it on their shoulders, I think those days are over. I think we're potentially in that transition where there are growth stocks that become value stocks. And historically speaking that is a multi year transition. I mean you can double your earnings but if your multiple gets cut in half, your stock goes nowhere. And we saw that in the 2000s after the peak in March 2000, Microsoft was a solid company within a tremendous balance sheet in March 2000.

[Steve Grasso]

Right now you're looking at 18 or 17 multiple here. This is not a Cisco kind of.

[Melissa Lee]

Right.

[Emily Wilkins]

But I just think that they're more trading stocks rather than the one decision stocks that, that work so well over the last couple of years. And one last potential group. I'm very bullish. And we're long commodity stocks. I think we're on the cusp of a big move up in commodities. We're already seeing it in raw material prices triggered in part by the tariffs. But I think that that is a beaten up group that I think is.

[Melissa Lee]

Really attractive commodities and not necessarily precious metals.

[Emily Wilkins]

Precious metals I love. And we're very long that and I remain so.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, Peter, great to see you. Thank you. Peter. Book Bar Bleakly Advisory Tim, do you agree International ST stocks over US for the next five years?

[Courtney Garcia]

Look, I think. Excuse me. In the short term, I think we've got a case where international stocks are going to continue to outperform. I think you've got a case where the valuations are a lot more interesting. I think you've got a case where the fund flows are going to favor that. I think people are still very underweight. The performance of Germany to the US is over 20% this year. And there's a reason for it. It's not just because of what's going on with tariffs.

[Melissa Lee]

Mm. Do you agree that Mag7 won't be carrying the markets in the future?

[Karen Feinerman]

Yeah, I mean, we've been looking at that for a while. I think just some of these valuations have become stretched and I think to Karen's point, some of them aren't extremely high any longer, especially after the recent pullback. But I think the question is you're seeing investors start to look elsewhere. I do really like the international call there because I think what you're seeing is people have become overly bearish on those that become much cheaper than the US but also you're seeing these countries kind of in spite of the tariffs, are having to put more stimulus and more money back into their own economies because they can't rely on the US As a growth source any longer. So, oddly enough, Trump has been like the best thing to happen to investing abroad recently, which is interesting. So we still own the Mag 7. It's just not something I'm actively overweighting or adding additional money to. I think you want to continue to broaden out here.

[Tim Seymour]

If you, if you look at the valuation, that's why Germany, because the dislocation between Germany, China and the U.S. that's why that was bought. But everything I heard out of Peter was If the market comes in, then I think the Powell puts what is in play. I think the market can continue to rally but it will be on the backs of the Mag six, not max.

[Melissa Lee]

Meantime, Nvidia bouncing higher today, up more than 5%. The stock closing out the week with an 8% gain making it the only MAG7 stock up this week. Still, the Darling is down more than 20% from its 52 week high. And next week the company hosts its GTC conference in San Jose with a keynote from CEO Jensen Huang Tuesday and a Quantum day on Thursday. Analysts looking for updates on Nvidia's Blackwell Ultra and next gen Rubin chips as well as demand from China, a roadmap for its quantum computing plans. Karen Odd that part of the run up this week at least was anticipation of this major potential catalyst.

[Steve Grasso]

Right, right. But what I think, I don't know if he's going to address this is how is demand right now?

[Melissa Lee]

Right from what's going on? Has anything turned?

[Steve Grasso]

Yes, has anything turned? And having a little bit more time, not a ton, but a little bit more time post Deep Seek, you know, do you think the world has changed? Stacey Rascott, I don't know if you heard him on in the priority hour or two was saying he thought Deep Seek was a big positive but clearly the street thinks differently. I'd be very curious to hear Jensen's take on that, which I know he's saying inference is going to, we need so much more compute for inference.

[Melissa Lee]

Yes.

[Steve Grasso]

Right. And so he, you know, is touting that as a positive which there's skepticism though, right.

[Melissa Lee]

Tim, you got your voice back.

[Courtney Garcia]

Let's hope so. This has been a tough, tough run here. Yes. What can I do for you?

[Melissa Lee]

Nvidia and gtc, what do you expect?

[Courtney Garcia]

I do think this is an important moment for the stock. We got numbers as we all know a few weeks back and those numbers were fine. But as we, as we think about the drivers and what the Deep Seek impact is, there's no question that still Nvidia is the only game in town and I, I still think that that capex spend is not something we should be challenging. GTC is going to be another data point and I think it's important for the market. I like what the stock did on the chart this week was really important.

[Melissa Lee]

Do you remember when Nvidia reported earnings, John Ford had had an interview, one on one interview with Jensen Huang. After that report we're saying oh, you know Jensen Huang, you know he's, he's always managed to come out and message the markets and stir the stock higher and nothing happened. So what do you think?

[Tim Seymour]

He's been an excellent salesperson for the name. I think this will be one of those Apple events where you sell it, you know, on the day of or you sell it coming out of it. But what I thought was interesting is they're having their first ever Quantum day. And if you look at stocks like D Wave, that was up 47% today. If you look at Rigetti, that was up 28% today. So watch those names out of it. They're trying to change from AI to Quantum. I think that's very interesting.

[Melissa Lee]

How does Nvidia stack up in your Mag7 list?

[Karen Feinerman]

Well, they're really dependent on your other Mag7. Right. Because what you need to see is the caps capex from these other companies need to continue to increase, which interestingly enough did. Even after deep seek, they pledged even more money to go back to chips, which has been a positive for Nvidia. So I think you want to watch not just what they're going to say at this conference, but also is that capex going to continue to increase, especially if there is concerns about growth in the economy. Are they going to pull that back? I think that's a bigger indication to where Nvidia is going.

[Melissa Lee]

Coming up, Tesla's latest plan to keep its market share in China is a revamped flagship model. Enough to keep the EV maker afloat in an increasingly competitive market. Plus some heavy metal trading with gold at all time highs. What is next for the precious metal? After crossing above 3,000 for the first time, that debate right after this. This is Fast Money with Melissa Lee.

[Courtney Garcia]

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[Phil LeBeau]

Phil Melissa, this comment about a more affordable EV, or I shouldn't say a comment, the reports out of China early this morning had a lot of people saying is Tesla close to an announcement? By all accounts that is not going to be happening anytime soon? Could happen maybe in the next few months. This is the report out of China. It will be a stripped down Model Y. Many people have speculated that a stripped down Model Y is essentially what they'll come out to with when they come out with a lower priced model. Second half of the year is the expectation at least for the rollout in China. Pricing and specifics, they're not included at this point though many people believe that if Tesla can get a Model Y stripped down version or not down closer to $30,000, that it will have a better shot of competing against some very intense competition in China. China is one area that has been behind Tesla's slowdown in sales. USB out with ubs I should say out with a report today saying that the sales for China year to date down 16%. When they add up reports out of Europe, out of China, we still don't get the US Sales until the beginning of May and they've cut their price target down to $130. So as you take a look at shares of Tesla, yes it's a nice pop today, but this is a stock that's still well off of where it was back in early December, mid December. So it has come back just a little bit today. There was also a letter that was sent from Tesla to the US Trade representative. It was an unsigned letter. It was not signed by Elon Musk, CEO of the company. This happened yesterday. In that letter the company essentially said, look, if there are tariffs that are gonna be put in place. We're an exporter. They do build vehicles in the US and export them. And exporters are inherently exposed to disproportionate impacts when other countries respond to U.S. trade actions. Essentially, the letter, which was fairly vague and fairly broad, said, think twice before you put these tariffs in place about the implications for those in this country who export vehicles. We're showing you all of the auto stocks today. They all moved higher along with the market. Remember, April 2nd, that is the date, Melissa, where we'll find out if auto tariffs go into effect. And if they do go to effect, that's when we'll start to see how the automakers respond in terms of pricing, reducing incentives, et cetera.

[Melissa Lee]

Right. And BMW already, Phil, has talked about the cost of tariffs to them in their report.

[Phil LeBeau]

Yeah, at least a 1 billion euro hit is what the expectation is from them. And remember, their largest plant in the world is in South Carolina. It builds primarily for North America. They do ship some vehicles from that plant to other countries. They've already incorporated a lot of manufacturing in this country, but they have said that they will take a hit. They do bring some in from Germany as well as from Mexico. And the. The tariff war, if there is one, is going to hurt their bottom line.

[Melissa Lee]

Yep. Phil, thank you. Phil LeBeau.

[Phil LeBeau]

You bet.

[Melissa Lee]

Steve. How are you feeling about Tesla these days with the. With the drawdown?

[Tim Seymour]

I'm just looking at it, just. I'll start with the Fibonacci retracement. This looks like where the stock bottomed out from basically October through August, or, I'm sorry, August through October, right around these levels. If you followed on a Fibonacci level, the stock can go another 80 points higher from here. So maybe a 35% to the upside if we follow those retracements. Usually stocks do follow retracements, especially after the beaten down that this stock has gotten. Obviously the competition for them is BYD. In the first two months of the year, BYD sold 481,000 cars against Tesla's 60,000 in cars. So they're trying to do what they did here, where they lower the cost, they build out the base, they take market share back. Very difficult to do in China, but I think purely technicals, the stock can rally a lot further than where it is.

[Melissa Lee]

I mean, Phil is talking about the difficulties and you're talking about the difficulties in the Chinese market. I mean, this is not even, you know, addressing the issues they have in terms of backlash because Elon Musk's role in the government because of his comments siding basically with the far right in Europe, which Europeans do not like. I mean, there are a lot of other issues here on top of a weakening fundamental picture. And by the way, oil is 60 bucks a barrel, 66 bucks. I mean that's not necessarily helping that EV story along either at this point.

[Steve Grasso]

Well, I wonder about the back. We know the backlash here is, is pervasive, but they seem to in the past, I guess before he joined the administration, Elon was somewhat of a cult figure in China, it seemed.

[Melissa Lee]

Right.

[Steve Grasso]

I don't know how damaged that is. That's, that's sort of interesting to me. But also, I mean, I guess the valuation differential is so big between what they sell their cars for and what the Tesla car is. I don't know if he has to come down all the way to. And is that profitable, right? I don't know.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah, good question.

[Karen Feinerman]

Yeah, I think the trouble with Tesla is when you look at their valuation like we're talking about the other MAG7, the valuations have come down so much. I mean it's still trading close 100 times next year's earnings. So clearly it's not in line with other car companies. So I think what investors are hoping for is that you're going to see more autonomous driving or you're going to see the robotaxis like some of these other opportunities which people were optimistic on in a new administration. Maybe you'd see that now people are questioning it. I have never chased this because of the valuation there. I think it's a really, it trades, you know, much more volatile, much more volatile than other stocks. It tends to be a very sentiment driven on pro or con, whatever Elon is doing at that point in time. So I don't think this is going to trade in line with their fundamentals. I think it's going to continue to be a story of whatever the headlines are. So we have exposure just in the index, but it's not something I chase.

[Melissa Lee]

There's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next. Heavy metal moves. What's next for gold? After cracking the $3,000 mark for the first time inside the red hot safe haven trade next. Plus, China's markets charging to their highest levels of the year ahead of a massive week of numbers. What's driving those stocks even as tariff uncertainty mounts at home? You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this at capella University. Learning the right skills could make a difference. That's why our business programs teach you relevant skills you can take from the course room to the workplace. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at capella. Edu.

[Phil LeBeau]

All next week.

[Melissa Lee]

Kramer's on the road with OpenAI, Intuit and Block, Nvidia's Jensen Huang, Cisco's Chuck.

[Courtney Garcia]

Robbins plus Win and Home Depot.

[Melissa Lee]

Mad Money Out west. All next week, 6 Eastern. CNBC. Welcome back to Fast Money. Gold hitting a new record and climbing above $3,000 for the first time ever. The precious metal already up nearly 15% this year as investors flock to the Safe Haven trade. And the miners ripping higher to the GDX ETF, up nearly 30% in 2025 as names like Barrick and Freeport Macmaran take advantage of the surge higher. But it's not just gold. Copper, silver, platinum and palladium all up big to start the year. Tim, what is your favorite metal? And I asked you that because I had a very interesting conversation with the CEO of, of Wheaton Precious Metals, Randy Smallwood, and he said that he likes silver best right now.

[Courtney Garcia]

I'm sure that was a fascinating conversation. By the way, Wheaton's the name we own in my ideal etf. I love gold. I love gold miners. You mentioned that level on the gdx. That's a breakout from resistance that we've had and it makes a ton of sense. Again, you have an analyst community that is always chasing the price of gold for their models. As we're now a quarter of the way through 25, the gold upgrades are coming and they're coming. And, you know, the level on spot is something that I think will continue to go higher. Remember, I think this administration is very happy to see the dollar weaker. I think the dollar structurally will be weaker significantly over the next five years. I think you're going to want to own gold and more gold and gold again. I just, you know, so I like the precious metals story. I think silver also has some room to run in terms of the industrial metals. What we're seeing in the crb, what we're seeing in terms of commodity price inflation is very bullish for some of those industrial miners, especially the integrated ones that have kind of lagged and had a lot of fits and starts. And, and I also, you know, I really like BHP and Rio Tinto. Those have been frustrating stocks to own. Let's wait and see. I know we're going to talk about China. China's really important for some of Those folks that are very tied to some of the or trade and some of the, essentially the steel and the iron ore dynamics. But anyway, I think gold goes higher. The geopolitics, the fiscal dynamics, everything we've said, the volatility that we see overall is.

[Tim Seymour]

Just, just to put a ball on it, central banks buying people bringing back their gold from overseas. But when you look at the GDX, the miners, the outperformance is usually 3 to 1 to GLD. And when you, when you, we haven't followed that outperformance. Now that bites both ways. When it goes down, it's also outperforms to the downside. Right now GDX, the miners is up 28 or 29% year to date against a GLD that's up 13%. So if you expect this to continue, I'd rather be a buyer of the miners versus the actual metal self.

[Melissa Lee]

Would you rather. Yes.

[Tim Seymour]

Do you know, I swear I didn't realize that I did that. I just come so naturally.

[Melissa Lee]

Would you rather do whatever you want? Okay, that's great, Courtney. I'm just curious, you know, Chris, Ron was on yesterday. He said that the bullish sentiment is to the extreme when it comes to gold positioning at this point. Are you getting a lot of calls about gold, still wanting to get in, wanting a piece of the action? Yeah.

[Karen Feinerman]

And I think that's been pretty common here, especially as you're seeing it above $3,000. I mean that's kind of one of those big sentiment driven price points that people are seeing. But I think you do want to own all of the precious metals. Like I mean gold realistically doesn't have a lot of practical usage to it. It's really, you're seeing central banks buying it. It's as a hedge that people are owning it. Then you have things like copper for example, which is much more like industrial usage is usage in electric vehicles especially. China comes back on, you're going to see more demand going there. So I think you want to own all of these, not just gold. So yes, it's been a really good hedge this year. But you know, I think you want to own a broadbasket.

[Melissa Lee]

Coming up, Chinese stock surging overnight, adding to their gains for the year. What is next for this market as investors await a massive week of economic data and a press conference on Monday. Right after this. Missed a moment of fast.

[Courtney Garcia]

Catch us anytime on the go follow.

[Melissa Lee]

The Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this. Welcome back to Fast Money. The S and P and NASDAQ closing out their best day since the election. The benchmark index jumping more than 2% while the tech heavy Nasdaq soared more than 2 1/2 percent, the Dow surging 674 points. Still, it was a down week for all of the indices. Bitcoin bouncing nearly 6% today, briefly crossing back above the 60, excuse me, $85,000 mark after a rough week for crypto. Peloton shares meantime Soaring more than 13% after Canaccord Genuity upgraded the fitness stock to a buy from a holding. It has regained its footing and remains a clear leader in the space. Finally, Palantir gaining steam into the close of software stocks, snapping a three week losing streak, notching its best day since early February. And China catching a bit overnight, nearing their highest levels of the year. Policymakers expected to host a press conference Monday where they may finally deliver on that long awaited stimulus in deep sea, also driving Chinese tech stocks higher as the country teeters on an AI fueled trade of its own. For more on what is next for China, let's bring in Duodric McNeil, CBC contributor and managing director at Longview Global. Duartrick, great to see you.

[Duartrick McNeil]

Great to see you.

[Melissa Lee]

Also, Melissa, I feel like we've been at this point before. We are, we are on the cusp of potentially a big stimulus announcement and then it's not exactly what investors wanted and there's disappointment. Where are we in that given already the 5% target was just announced at the National People's Congress.

[Duartrick McNeil]

Well, I think you're right on this announcement that I think people were trading on overnight on Monday. We have seen this movie before, Melissa, and you know, let's see what the announcement is first before the euphoria kicks in. Let's see if it is indeed going to be stimulus, if that stimulus is going to indeed target households or will there be some package of policies that they hope will trickle down to households. So on that respect, I think the boost overnight may be premature. But surprisingly, Melissa, I think I can make the bulls case for China over the near and mid term. I think the deep sea story, the deep sea trade and China's sector could fuel this run for longer the way we saw it fuel the run here in the US So, so I think there's a bull's case to be made. I do think we have to be cautious. I think the overnight trading is perhaps a little premature, but I do see some room to run on the backs of China's sector.

[Melissa Lee]

Melissa, you know, when, when western investors think of stimulus, they think of handouts Basically right, checks made to households to spend. That traditionally does not happen in China. So can you just put into perspective for investors who might be trading on this notion that there could be a stimulus in store, how much of a pivot that would be for Xi? Or maybe it wouldn't be after the National People's Congress and the pledge to stimulate.

[Duartrick McNeil]

Well, I think, you know, we've been calling, many of us have been calling for direct household support. The stimulus that you, the stimulus that you talked about that may not come, Melissa, largely because we don't know who would pay for that. Will there be transfers from the central government to the provincial governments to pay for that? And we know that provincial governments are still in some financial trouble. What I think we will see from Xi is not a pivot necessarily, but an adjustment is how this will be couched in that you can no longer depend on the US Market export led trade in this global trade environment to drive your economy. Therefore, we do need to stimulate consumption and here's a package of policies to do that, which is how I think this will be couched if it materializes. But I think we have to wait, we have to see what is announced and what the time horizon is, which is also important here.

[Courtney Garcia]

Melissa Dordrick, it's Tim. Thanks for joining us. So historically we would hear from China, big stimulus packages around infrastructure, bridges to nowhere, et cetera, and that would probably not be seen as positive. Obviously there's a real estate bubble, not necessarily with the government, but if this government made an announcement around tech infrastructure and really talked about the type of spending that some of the hyperscalers are doing, but talked about whatever that number is, but a stimulus package that really was around where the strategic interest is right now, very different than a lot of the infrastructure build. I mean, how different and how much of that could you expect? I don't think that's a story that the markets really are expecting.

[Duartrick McNeil]

Yeah, this is a very good point, Tim. I think that feels structurally different to me than some of the stuff you mentioned in the past. And I think that will probably excite investors a lot. I think. And going back to where I think there may be some room to run, I think it is in the tech sectors, it is in the AI space. And an announcement like that, while not satisfying those of us who have been calling for household support and increase wages for households, I still think an announcement like that, very structurally different than the stuff we saw last year, could provide some additional fuel for a run. Tim, I think you're right here.

[Melissa Lee]

Dewarguk Great to see you. Thanks. Have a great weekend.

[Duartrick McNeil]

Thank you.

[Melissa Lee]

Melissa Dewadrick McNeil. Karen, you still in China?

[Steve Grasso]

Yes, I am. As you know, it's the A in my carb trade Alibaba, obviously.

[Melissa Lee]

Obviously.

[Steve Grasso]

Of course. Right, Yes. I wish I owned more but I don't want to buy any more in front of this. Just to your point before about disappointment before, you know, a big announcement and so I think I will have a chance.

[Tim Seymour]

You know, it's about what we said before, it's the dislocation in valuation where we saw everything get thrown out in advance of the tariffs. But when you look at towards point it's been a lot of tech spend, it's been a lot of tech that we see get pushed into. It's their version of Max 7 there. It's probably Mag 3. You know, as far as far as they you have, you have Alibaba, you have JD Baidu. But if you look at our evaluation process then you're going to go with a stock like Baidu that's only up 11% against the JD that's up 25%. Or when you look at Alibaba, it's already run over 60% for the year. So you have to bottom fish in the AI sector, in the tech tech sector. But I wouldn't stay too long. I'm not as positive as dwarf is for the longer term there. I think it's just a rotation trade.

[Melissa Lee]

Coming up, glitz, glamour and gloom. The headlines are one of Europe's top fashion houses putting another dent in the luxury trade next. And a quick program we know do not miss. New York Times best selling author Michael Lewis in a first on CNBC interview on Monday. He'll discuss his new book who Is Government? The Untold Story of Public Service Service. It's in part about taking it, taking on the stereotype of the federal bureaucrat. That's at 1pm Eastern Monday only on the exchange. Meantime, more fast Money into Welcome Back to Fast Money. Ulta topping the tape soaring nearly 14% for its best day since 2020. The beauty retailer delivering a big earnings beat even as weak guidance raises some concerns of a rising competition and consumer uncertainty. The surge also coming amid a weak consumer confidence number slumping to its lowest level since 2022 over tariff and inflation fears. Do you feel good about Alta Court?

[Karen Feinerman]

You know, I was a little surprised to see the jump considering their guidance was pretty mixed. But I think they have been down. I mean even with this they're still down quite a bit this year. So I think some of that was just like a pop on some of that news. It does trade at a discount to its like longer term historical averages. They do have a really large loyalty member base which especially as they get in more Target stores I think will benefit them. And you're starting to see beauty kind of normalizing again after the surge you saw post Covid. So maybe some of that will benefit. I think seeing some consumers pulling back, I mean won't be a good thing for Ulta. So I would proceed with some caution here.

[Steve Grasso]

So I liked the conference call. I mean it was cheap going in for sure, right? And yesterday it had a terrible day. They pretty much told you we're sandbagging but what else are we supposed to do? Why not? I mean so. So I think they'll come out above where they guided to which still makes it cheap. But this has been a long rundown. I like new management. I'm staying with it. But it's been a painful couple weeks here.

[Melissa Lee]

Now let's get to a buzzkill on Kering. The luxury retailers ADR is tumbling 3 1/2% after announcing a controversial new artistic director is set to take the reins at Gucci. The ailing fashion house makes up almost half of Kering's total revenues though its sales plunged 24% in the fourth quarter. And Karen, you actually showed me a picture of some of this artistic. I'm going to tweet it because I.

[Steve Grasso]

Know they were down More than 10% I think.

[Melissa Lee]

Oh yes.

[Steve Grasso]

This was really, really not well received at all. I used to own LVMH and Kering. I didn't like with caring when Francois and Repino or the other way around bought caa I thought it was a huge distraction and then the Gucci thing is just falling more and more apart and then capping it off with this higher which he may be a genius and fantastic and all of that but if they're trying to restore Gucci to some other era, this probably wasn't the choice.

[Tim Seymour]

And the reliant to an outsized number on Gucci for for revenues. I still think that there's a limited amount of luxury brands so they're going to be the first ones to hit when people are pulling back. But in theory they should be the ones that survive because the affluent purchaser or consumer is the one that sort of lingers around. But this is a very, very difficult space to navigate. I'm currently not in TPR and I am not in Capri and this is more current space than mine. But I think the Gucci element is 70% of revenues. It's a very hard thing to navigate.

[Melissa Lee]

Up next, earnings season trucks on can FedEx get it? Deliver the goods for investors next week and what the results could tell us about the health of the transports. And here's a sneak peek at the Kramer Cam. Jim is chatting exclusively with the CEO of Outlaw Beer. Catch the full interview. Top of the hour on Mad Money. More fast Money into. Welcome Back to Fast Money. Shares of FedEx slightly positive today, but still down about 14% for the year. It and other transports have been struggling recently. But will earnings next week change things for the delivery giant? Let's take a look at what the options market saying with Mike Koh. Hey, Mike. Hi there. So the options market is implying a pretty big move, actually about 8%. That's much bigger than the average move over a really long time frame. But in the last eight quarters or.

[Phil LeBeau]

So we've seen much more substantial moves.

[Melissa Lee]

And this is pretty much in line with those. One of the results of all of this is that near dated options premium is elevated. So I think you're probably going to get some bad look ahead. But there's already, as you pointed out, quite a lot of bad priced into the stock. It's actually down more than 20% from.

[Phil LeBeau]

Its highs last year.

[Melissa Lee]

So I think one way you could potentially play this is with something I call a strangle swap, buying a longer dated strangle. In this case, I was looking out to July, the210,270 strangle. That's buying the puts and the calls and then selling a nearer dated strangle against it. I was looking at the April 25 weeklies which expired just over 40 days, the 220 and 270s there net net. You'd be laying out a little over seven bucks a contract or you know, just over 3.5% or so of the current stock price. And the idea here is that that elevated premium is probably going to get sucked out, something we call a volume crush. And this is a trade that could potentially make money if the stock rises. The implied move up or down wasn't.

[Tim Seymour]

Strangle swap up for a Oscar this year.

[Melissa Lee]

I was going to say, Mike, in all the years that we had done options action, I think this is the first time that you presented a strangle swap. I mean, four legs. It's got to be up there in the history books, I think. Yeah, it's got a few more pieces basis, but it's not a terribly complicated trade and it gives you a little.

[Phil LeBeau]

Bit of Way to play it both ways.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, Tim, strangle swap notwithstanding, how are you feeling about FedEx and what they might say about the turn in sentiment that so many other companies identified in the month of February?

[Courtney Garcia]

Let's not forget a ball crush. I heard that too. So I FedEx very important right now in terms of cyclicality. I saw a note from a preview note from Scott Group at Wolf, who I think is one of the best, and I think he calls this a quieter quarter. They're going to have better sequential earnings, but we don't really know a whole lot more LTL margins probably not as good, whereas package margins better. Look, we want to hear their view on a lot of different parts. That's what's going to make it an interesting number in terms of most interesting of its pair, its brother. I think you want to own UPS here. And again, I think you've, you've got that pair trade dynamic where you've had multiple compression between UPS and that, you know that that premium, it trades over FedEx. I like UPS here.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, Mike, thank you. Great to see you. Mike Koh up next, final trades. Time for the final trade. Tim Seymour.

[Courtney Garcia]

Sorry about all the coughing tonight, Mel. Anyway, Altria Mo is a name I don't think you're gonna be choking on. I actually think it's very conservative in this environment. I like it.

[Melissa Lee]

Karen.

[Steve Grasso]

So I looked at the strangle swap in Citi and I felt like you could just be flat no matter what happened in any scenario, which would have worked out well for me this week in anything. But instead, I like Citibank.

[Karen Feinerman]

This is a long court. We talked a lot about China tonight. I am optimistic here. I think the MCHI is a good way to, to play that you own the entire market.

[Melissa Lee]

Stephen.

[Tim Seymour]

Netflix, it actually went up on the Deep Sea headline, as it should have. But I think the market gave you a gift here when it sold off this last week.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, thank you for watching Fast Money. Have a terrific weekend. Mad Money with Jim Cramer starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do.

[Karen Feinerman]

Not reflect the opinions of cnbc, NBC Universal, their parent company, or affiliates, and.

[Melissa Lee]

May have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement.

[Karen Feinerman]

To make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion.

[Melissa Lee]

Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable. But neither CNBC nor its affiliates and.

[Karen Feinerman]

Or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.

[Melissa Lee]

To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer Is it time to reimagine your future? The right business skills may make a difference in your career. At Capella University, we offer a relevant education that's designed to focus on what you need to know in the business world. We'll teach professional skills to help you pursue your goals, like business management, strategic planning, and effective communication, and you can apply these skills right away. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn [e-mail].