← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
Stocks Bounce On DC Movement On Shutdown… And Bargain Hunting In Weakness 11/7/25
00:43:57
Stocks bouncing off their lows of the session as Democrats offer to end the government shutdown in exchange for an extension of the health care tax credit. If a deal can get done, and how it’s impacting stocks after a rough week. Plus The Fast Money traders are going bargain hunting. The names they’re watching amid the volatility, and if their picks can boost your portfolio. Fast Money Disclaimer
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Transcript135 lines
- [00:00]
Tim Seymour
Introducing FidelityTrader plus with customizable tools and charts you can access across all your devices. Try our most powerful trading platform yet@fidelity.com TraderPlus investing involves risk, including risk of loss. Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC Member NYSE SIPC.
- [00:15]
Emily Wilkins
Our state has changed a lot in the last 140 years. We know because Multicare has been here guided by a single purpose, making our communities healthier. That comes from making courageous decisions, partnering with local communities to grow programs and services, and expanding healthcare access to those who need it most. Together, we're building a healthier future. Learn more@mycare.org.
- [00:49]
Melissa Lee
Live in the Nasdaq Marketsite in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight, a major reversal. Stocks rebounding from steep losses with the S and P and Dow actually climbing into the green. The news out of Washington that got markets off the mat. And how long can the optimism last? And the holidays are just around the corner with stocks off their highs. We tasked the traders to put together their stock shopping list. We'll bring you the names they are hoping to find under the tree this year. Plus, we dig in on Bitcoin's bounce from four month lows. Investors lose their appetite for restaurant stocks. And we may have just crowned a World Series champion, but we are already already warming up for a bullpen for next season. One top financial advisor is here with a fast pitch on a home improvement name. She'll lay out the case later hour. I'm Melissa Lee, come to you live from studio. Be at the NASDAQ on the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Feineman, Vono and ICE and Steve Rosso. We start off with markets rebounding off the lows of the session. Democrats offering to end the government shutdown in exchange for an extension of the health care tax credit. But Republicans aren't fighting just yet. Emily Wilkins is live in D.C. with the very latest. Emily?
- [01:53]
Emily Wilkins
Hey, Melissa. Well, yes, Democrats did come back today with what they are pitching as a new offer to saying they will help vote, help Republicans vote to restart and reopen the government if they can just get a one year extension on those tax credits that have been keeping those health care premiums low. Here's what Senator Chuck Schumer had to say on the floor today.
- [02:13]
Tim Seymour
That is what many of our Republican colleagues have floated over the last six weeks as a compromise, a one year tax credit extension and reforms to the credit.
- [02:23]
Steve Grasso
Beyond that, we will agree with the.
- [02:27]
Tim Seymour
Republican request not to start negotiations until after the government reopens.
- [02:35]
Melissa Lee
Now.
- [02:35]
Emily Wilkins
This has been met with almost uniform across the board opposition from Republicans. Senate Majority Leader John Thune called the offer unserious. You've also had a number of other Republicans who have said that this is just a non starter. It's not something they can agree with. Meanwhile, the president weighing in on Truth Social with President Trump posting that the United States Senate should not leave town until they have a deal to end the Democrat shutdown. He goes on, if they can't reach a deal, the Republicans should terminate the filibuster immediately and take care of our great American workers. Now at this point it's not clear that Republicans are going to be ending the filibuster. I spoke with many of them this week. It just doesn't seem like the support is there yet for that. And at the same point it's not clear if they're going to be sticking around this weekend. They just tried another vote to pay workers who are currently working. Of course Democrats have opposed that in the past because they also want furloughed federal workers to be able to be paid. It's not clear if we're going to have any votes this weekend and it's still an open question of how long it is going to take to reopen the government at this point it seems like it could easily go into next week. And of course there are a whole bevy of other programs and pay periods that are coming up that would have pain on the American people if they are going to be missed. Not to mention of course everything we are are seeing at the airports right now.
- [03:55]
Kate Rogers
Guys.
- [03:56]
Melissa Lee
Yep. Emily, thank you. Emily Wilkins and yet this was the reason, one of the reasons why tech seemed to climb from down 2% easily.
- [04:07]
Tim Seymour
There's no question in terms of once we started getting these headlines from, from Washington we started to see the reversal in the S and p was probably 90s and P points from its low to the close it was 1 1/2% Vix dropped I don't know, 15 or so percent throughout the day. And it's just, it's interesting. You know we have all said, I'm sure I've said it five times since this government sh shutdown that the shutdown wasn't really have a big impact on markets and blah blah blah as we as we bled further into this longest shutdown in US History and everyone should feel really proud about that right now on both sides. But it's a case where we have certainly some sense that it is having an impact. We saw we had Michigan numbers We had consumer confidence numbers today that were awful, that were the second lowest on record. Some of the dynamics we've heard this month in terms of the Challenger job data, which was the second worst October in 20 years. I mean, these numbers are starting to, to paint a little bit of a picture. I don't think it's a picture to fall out of bed. And it's interesting also from a sentiment perspective, there's a lot of people at the end of the day that are back to this. Oh boy, I can't believe I missed that bottom in Nvidia today or something like that. I think the dip buyers are still out there. I think the froth that was in the market, as is the cliche here is we took some of the froth off. We hear that all the time. We did take some of the froth out. I don't think anything different happened this week for the fundamental story of markets. Even though the Fed is out there telling you they might be a little bit more hawkish.
- [05:27]
Melissa Lee
What was this rebound all about, Grasso?
- [05:29]
Steve
Yeah, well, I think it's about the government getting back to work. I think it's about some of the froth being taken off. I don't know if there's enough froth that has really come off, but I think this is a decaying option on the government shutdown. They are going to open the government back up. It's not if it's when. So does it happen next week? I think you got the elections done, so I think that was a major thing. They wanted to stay closed during the election so it gives people something to pound the table about. So I think the now that we're done with the elections, the closer we are to getting the government back open. It's probably going to look ugly, uglier for the next week, but it will get back open.
- [06:07]
Karen Finerman
Yeah.
- [06:08]
Steve Grasso
Bottom line, I tend to agree. I mean in terms of what was the headline that led us to kind of reverse back higher? It clearly was what was coming out of Washington. I mean what has been going on for the last several weeks clearly wasn't. That clearly wasn't leading us to some resolution and perhaps this new option. I see nothing but upside because we had seen where we were stuck previously. I will argue that. I really don't understand why we had sold off so precipitously in the first place. I mean some of the headlines say things like Amazon is down 5%. But if you look at Amazon over a two week period, Amazon went from 220 to 255 on the back of earnings, fine, it pulled back to 240. But to frame that in a way that we're in this deep sell off I think is a bit of a misnomer. And I think once you started actually parsing through some of the data, I mean we mentioned it earlier on the call today, 85% of companies that have reported a beat and you still see concentration in terms of beating in industrials, in financials and sorry. And it. So the earnings reports still spoke to a strong market and being that we have a derp of information coming from Washington and we're missing some of this more public information, all we have to go off of is earnings and those continue to be quite strong. So I think yes, some froth came out of the market but the truth of the matter is I don't, I'm not sure we should have been there in the first place.
- [07:28]
Melissa Lee
I mean if the, if the froth came out then do we believe that the worries about AI spending and how much is being spent and the return on investment, the ability to fund that investment through the debt markets, has that all then gone away?
- [07:41]
Karen Finerman
No, I don't think so.
- [07:42]
Melissa Lee
Yeah.
- [07:42]
Karen Finerman
Yeah. It seems like way too big of an issue to be resolved from Tuesday. Right. Or whenever that start started. So this to me was not a buy the dip. You know, we had our midday call looked a little different. The market looked different then than it does now. Von and was, you know, getting somewhat optimistic. Right. But to me this is not a buy the dip because this isn't a dip to your point. Right. This is like if you like back up and look at this in a long term view of what's happened to these stocks and you squint a little, you don't even see what happened in the last week. So there's things I want to buy. I always talk about looking at the VIX and that as you know, the fear index part of it, this is at 19 and change at the highest it was what, 22, almost 23. Maybe that's not high enough for a buy the dip kind of panic. And that's what I would like to do. Like to see rather before I add. So yeah, even though the market moved up nicely, I didn't.
- [08:39]
Melissa Lee
So for all the hand wringing this week, is there more hand wringing to come or was this it? Was this the sort of the moment where we sort of get concerned we had met a meta is still being punished for its, you know, forecast of spending next year. Was this it?
- [08:54]
Tim Seymour
No, it wasn't it but, but it sounds like we got a bunch of bulls on the desk here or you know, I'm not putting bulls in their mouths, but I said that I didn't.
- [09:01]
Steve
Think enough froth came the imagery O.
- [09:04]
Tim Seymour
Sounds like again Steve might think things could get a little whatever. I'm not making everybody's market call here because what I think is that people want to buy the dip and on a sense today when we didn't get another 2 washout into the close would have been I think exciting for a lot of market participants who want to buy stuff a little bit lower but they want to buy it. They don't want to, you know, they don't want to not buy it. And you know, I've got clients that want to put money into the market and there's, there's dynamics around there. It was an 80% update. So it tells you kind of how we closed the week. It was also a week where you know, you had and today especially you had that resounding at least one day bounce off of that 50 day you've wanted to see. That's held every time since April. So as we go into next week, I think it's, you know, especially if Washington can follow suit, I think the setup. But we all know we, we can't wait for Nvidia even though if there's a company that's giving you more announcements between the last earnings period and this one, it's in video. I mean we keep getting updates. We, you know, we heard about Blackwell and Hopper. We heard about with 26 shipments are going to be even better. But I'm not worried about those numbers. I'm actually not even worried about the market being set up too high for them, are you?
- [10:12]
Steve Grasso
No. But listen, I think two things can be true at the same time. Yes, there's froth in the market where in the market. I think it's pretty far out the risk spectrum. And if you continue to see statements like we saw from AI which open air rather which perhaps suggest that they want government backing or should have government backing, I think that is what gives the market some shakes. And I don't think that that shaking should be happening within Microsoft and Nvidia. I think that that shaking should be happening pretty far out along the curve. The snowflakes, the, the, the more quantum related stocks. I'm sure Steve, I'm not sure if you agree there or not, but I think we, we need to kind of separate the two. You can still have confidence in the market and also agree that There is froth therein. It's really a rotation story. And if you, and what's happening is when you start to see the names that have been winners for the past 12, 24 months start to roll over, clearly you're going to get margin squeeze out of those names. And so those might be, when we say dips, those might be small dips, but those might present the only opportunity that you have to get into those names. I'm not by any means suggesting that you should go throwing money at tertiary names. I'm saying when you see pullbacks that are because of headline risks that have nothing to do with fundament and the core stocks that have led us to our highs, you should be looking at least at putting a shopping list together to get into those at discounts.
- [11:32]
Melissa Lee
What are, what are the fundamentals? I mean, isn't it concerns about spending? I mean, how do we separate? You know, you have the government shutdown dynamic today that lifted all stocks into the close, right? So you have that headline, right? But at the same time when you say fundamentals, what are the fundamentals of being of the earnings?
- [11:49]
Steve Grasso
Fundamentals are the earnings.
- [11:50]
Melissa Lee
The fundamentals are they are spending a.
- [11:52]
Steve Grasso
Lot of money, okay?
- [11:52]
Melissa Lee
The fundamentals are we don't know what they are going to get in return for that spending.
- [11:56]
Steve
So that's my problem is I'm looking.
- [11:58]
Melissa Lee
At capex the story.
- [11:59]
Steve
So capex in 2025 was 350 billion or thereabouts. 2025, they're forecasting for 500 billion in 2026 the market needs 500 billion or more. Is that going to happen? So if we look at the GDP numbers, all the gdp growth or 92% of the GDP growth was AI spending. That to me accounts for 4% of total GDP being a spend. That's more than railroads. That was more than the telecom bust. It's more than ever. It can't be sustainable.
- [12:31]
Melissa Lee
Well, let's turn to this week's tech tumble. The NASDAQ dropping more than 3% since Monday, notching its worst week since Liberation Day. Some of this year's hottest trades leading the losses. Oracle dropping almost 9% since Monday, fully erasing the gains from its 35% post. Earnings pop. Palantir, AMD and Qualcomm lower after their results. Nvidia down 7%, its earnings less than two weeks away. Our next guest thinks though tech stocks can still rip higher by 8 to 10% into year end. Dan Ives is Wedbush's global head of technology research. He joins us now. Dan, great to have you with us.
- [13:03]
Dan Ives
Great to be here.
- [13:05]
Melissa Lee
We mentioned some of those, those names, the High Flyers, Oracle, the Palantir, amd. I want to go to Meta though, because Meta seems to be an interesting sort of example of this question that investors are really asking themselves in terms of what they're getting for that AI spend. The prognostication of we're going to spend a lot of money and it's time to spend money because we've got to seize the opportunity. But we, you know, but they're not really giving investors a roadmap as to how they're going to reap the returns on this investment. Is Meta an outlier or is this going to be the example that we look back on and think the whole sector is going to be held to this standard at some point?
- [13:44]
Dan Ives
I think Meta is a bit of an outlier just because you know obviously how dramatically more they're going to spend on Capex and what happened to numbers going to next year. But in my opinion matters a table pounder here and I think below 600 because it's my view they're transforming this business over the coming years. Zuckerberg, right now, wartime CEO, I get, you know, fretting about everything that's happening here, but this is an arms race and I continue to view it as you want to see them spend because you're talking about the earnings growth over the coming years going to be massive. That's why they're spending.
- [14:22]
Karen Finerman
Dan, it's Karen. Thanks for being on. Thanks for wearing that outfit. It's always good to see what you're wearing. So Metta, which is big position for me. So it's been a painful week or two. The promise of what, what the spend is, we know that their business, that they've been able to use AI in their business and the product they're able to deliver to advertisers has really been, that's working. But the part that we don't know is the llama spend and we do know they get some revenue sharing. Maybe you could tell me how significant that is. But that's, that's a. Still a big question mark. What do you think the return on this whatever they spend 100/billion next year. What does it need to be?
- [15:01]
Dan Ives
Look, I think the return ultimately is going to be multiples of what they're spending over the coming years because they're going to change their whole advertising model. You look at the monetization of 3 billion users, that's what they're focused on. I mean, I think that is the smart move because the meta today is going to be a whole different meta over the coming years. Even when you look at the further monetization that you're going to see from the hardware perspective and software, they're building out a new ecosystem. And I think that's where of course the winners, the clear ones, Nvidia, amd, chip makers, everyone else but you look what's happened Microsoft here, I think that is, it's another table pounder under 500. Because in my view the enterprise backyard will be Redmond. And this is one where I think the market is sort of misread or maybe nervousness in terms of what we're seeing.
- [15:53]
Tim Seymour
Dan, you're pounding a lot of tables. In fact, the kitchen shaking or the dining room shaking. The one in your notes that you know I'm most interested in hearing about is maybe not surprising to people watch is Apple. And you've, you've, you've come kind of two or three different visits to us from being very concerned about that moment and act fast. And you turned to being bullish last time and now seemingly more bullish. Explain that. And yeah, I'm, I'm pounding the table on the hoodie as well.
- [16:24]
Dan Ives
Yeah, it's great to see the tail pound. And part of it, but even just taking a step back is that it's my view we're still in the second inning, maybe third inning of AI revolution. Right. So that's why I continue to view these tech names where they're heading when it goes to Apple. Look, the whole thing that changed once Google won the DOJ suit. That opened what I believe the yellow brick road for Apple to go aggressive. Google gemini on the AI partnership. And I think that's really the consumer AI revolution is going to go through Apple. That's 75 to $100 per share as it all plays out. Then iPhone 17 being the surprise upgrade cycle, numbers will continue to go higher. And it goes back six months ago. New York City cab drivers bearish on Apple and that continues to be the name you want to own.
- [17:11]
Melissa Lee
When does a shakeout happen, Dan, in these names? I mean, you look back at the Internet boom, there were, there were companies that participated in the boom and then got shaken out when things sort of rationalized. Are we going to see that moment in this boom or is it just pound the table? Pound the table, pound the table. It just doesn't seem. No, right.
- [17:29]
Dan Ives
No, I think you're going to see, you're going to see the shake. I mean the shakeout is going to Be clear, because you could say AI 15 times in a conference call. Doesn't make an AI name. Needs to be execution. Palantir will sell off. But you look at those numbers, that was a masterpiece quarter in terms of everything that they're executing on companies that don't execute. You see these, These are stocks that will be down 30, 40%. I think 2026, it's going to separate the winners. We talk about the AI winners from what could be the losers or the fakes. And I think that's the opportunity to stock pickers market when it comes to. I think that's really the theme here.
- [18:06]
Melissa Lee
So 2026 will be watching. Dan, thank you. Great.
- [18:10]
Steve Grasso
Thank you.
- [18:11]
Melissa Lee
Dan Ives, do you think we'll see that shakeout?
- [18:14]
Steve
Yeah, I mean, I think you're going to have to see that shakeout. But the problem is the ones with the deepest pockets are the ones that manipulate the market. I don't want to use that term, but they push the market, drive the market, not manipulate. So it's very difficult for the market to get shaken out from those hands. Tesla, he didn't bring up part of the table on Palantir, Microsoft, Metta and Apple. Tesla is his biggest call, I believe. And it's not even about technology. It's not about robotaxi. It's about humanoid robots. Now it's about AI and those are robots, Those cars are robots. So people, people think about humanoid and robots two different things. I think he. He wouldn't disagree with me if I said that. That Tesla from this point forward is probably one of his biggest calls.
- [19:00]
Melissa Lee
Meantime, crypto also bouncing off its lows. Bitcoin getting back below 100000 today, but bouncing back with the broader markets. Other tokens, Etherium, Solana Ripple seeing even bigger gains, though all are down for this week. Ban on what you make of this rebound, not surprising given, given the market turnaround. But have we seen sort of a. I don't want to say the worst.
- [19:18]
Steve Grasso
Of it, but no, I am with Karen. I would like to see the VIX higher before I throw out my hand and say, okay, let's back up the truck. I think what you saw in terms of crypto was risk off. There was a couple comments. I mean, Steve made some interesting comments around Quantum and their ability to kind of, you know, cause ripple effects, not to, no pun intended, within bitcoin and the whole crypto space. But I also think it's part of the fact that stablecoins have, I mean, Cathie woods made this point Stablecoins have created some wind suck out of the air sales for this whole crypto universe in terms of adoption internationally. And so I think that's, that's some there also. I don't think you've seen gold kind of rebound yet. And I think gold might be somewhat of a canary in a coal mine in terms of seeing a true scared flight to quality. And when I started to see that strong reversal, that'll probably be my cue to get more aggressive.
- [20:14]
Karen Finerman
I agree. I thought the Cathie Wood thing was interesting and she still has a very, very optimistic target for bitcoin. But I feel like it was all just part of the same general frothy trade kind of, you know, that it's hood and crypto and the quantum computing and that are all moving together. Whether or not they're related I feel like is irrelevant. I feel like the correlation is getting higher and higher.
- [20:45]
Steve
There was a hack in bitcoin about a week or so ago. I think 120 million or so was stolen out of, out of wallets. That didn't add any confidence to the infrastructure of crypto. But what you're starting to see now are whales coming in actually buying crypto and that happened yesterday. So you're starting to see this little bit of a bounce. I'm with, I'm with Bono and I think you could see further downside. But this seems like the right level where both Etherium and bitcoin probably should bounce back.
- [21:13]
Tim Seymour
I'm surprising myself with a view that I think of all the things that have sold off a lot here. Well, I mean, get ready, Tim. Is bitcoin. I think bitcoin is. I'd have the most confidence in stepping in buying bitcoin here given where I think the asset sits both in the near and the long term. And really just structural dynamics day. You know, bitcoin demand is not going to get less and we all know about the supply side, so, you know, I'm not surprised with the froth, but I think this was interesting.
- [21:40]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, a travel nightmare sweeping flight cancellations taking effect at 40 of the nation's busiest airports. What to expect as the government shutdown threatens the holiday travel season next. But first, not so sweet green. The salad chain getting chopped on lean guided. The latest commentary from the restaurant industry is telling us right after this.
- [22:03]
Tim Seymour
This is Fast Money with Melissa Lee right here on cnbc. Your commute. Day in and day out, the same old route, but also the perfect time to hear what's new in blockchain and crypto. Level up your commute and join Ripple for conversations with some of the best in the business on how institutions around the globe are being reshaped and revolutionized with blockchain and crypto. From digital asset infrastructure to payments, custody and even our stablecoin rlusd. Listen to special commuter editions of Blockstars, the podcast hosted by David Schwartz. It's happening with Ripple.
- [22:44]
Emily Wilkins
Our state has changed a lot in the last 140 years. We know because MultiCare has been here guided by a single purpose, making our communities healthier. That comes from making courageous decisions, partnering with local communities to grow programs and services, and expanding healthcare access to those who need it most. Together, we're building a healthier future. Learn more@ multicare.org CNBC's Changemakers 2026 list spotlighting women who innovate, lead boldly and are transforming business. Do you know someone who is rewriting the future? Nominate them now@cnbc.com changemakers.
- [23:33]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. Sweet green in the sweet red. That's terrible. The salad bowl chain dropping 7.5% after missing sales and earnings estimates and cutting guidance. The company seeing particular weakness among younger diners. IT and other chains like Kava and CMG Chipotle are down double digits over the last two weeks. For more on these trends, let's bring in Kate Rogers.
- [23:53]
Kate Rogers
Kate hi Melissa. You said it was a tough quarter for sweetgreen. Same store sales fell nine and a half percent. Companies saying they were flat in September and October, running now at low double digit drops. Sweetgreen CEO John Neiman saying last night on the earnings call quote, I think it's pretty obvious that the consumer is not in a great place overall. You talked about younger consumers. They're eating less at sweetgreen and Kava and Chipotle. All three names seeing big declines this week and on the year. Another takeaway so far from this quarter. Lower income consumers pulling away from quick service chains. McDonald's CEO noting a bifurcated consumer with lower income traffic across the sector down double digits. A similar pullback taking place at Wingstop. But then upper income consumers were visiting some of those QSR chains more Starbucks and Dutch Bros. Though bucking that trend with younger consumers. Starbucks building momentum in its back to Starbucks plans with US Comps flat but positive so far in September and October, more than half of their customer base. Remember Gen Z and Millennials. Then finally Dutch Bro CEO Christine Barone saying, quote, we're seeing really incredible performance out of those younger cohorts. So as I said earlier in the day. It's been really hard to just draw one theme away from this quarter because it's kind of all over the place with the consumer. We're saying they're cautious and a little bit confusing for us to read between the lines, but generally speaking, a little bit more cautious and I would say picking and choosing where it's worth it for them to spend their money right now.
- [25:18]
Melissa Lee
Melissa, for chains like Sweetgreen, Kava as well as as Chipotle, is there talk of doing more promotion, promotional activity in order to get the consumer back, a focus on value maybe? Or are they just going to try and ride this out?
- [25:31]
Kate Rogers
I think it's a two pronged answer, Melissa. I think they will kind of ride it out. But then if you ask some of the executives, like I spoke to Chipotle CEO Scott Boatwright and he says we need to do a better job of kind of getting our message out around value and what the price point actually is because the perception is that it's more expensive than it actually is. So I think not necessarily cutting price, but speaking more to what it actually costs and kind of cutting through some of the chatter that's out there. Sweetgreen is a little bit more of a higher price point than a Chipotle. So, so it depends on, on the consumer where you're located, of course. But I think they're going to be kind of fine tuning that message as we move ahead.
- [26:11]
Melissa Lee
Right, Kate? Thanks. Kate Rogers. Starbucks, though.
- [26:15]
Tim Seymour
Starbucks. It's Starbucks. This felt more like a bounce and a decent data point and some decent sense of, of where one of the many agenda here for Brian Nichols may be working. Speaking of Brian Nichols and speaking of his old shot, I should say, I mean, Chipotle, the stock now is down from 64 at the beginning of the year down to, you know, maybe about to crack $30 and a multiple that's not crazy cheap yet. And really what we're hearing, and this is part of the Sweet Green story, this is part of where we've been exploring is what's going on with this consumer whose 40% of sales that's making less than $100,000, they may be making in the upper half of that, but the gap between the low income and the middle income is even rising. And that's pressuring some of the frequency here. I think Chipotle is going lower and I think this is a sign on the US Consumer, it does feel like.
- [27:03]
Steve
There'S a bubble in I don't know what you would call the restaurants where you get served On a, you know, like a Chipotle, like a Kava, like a sweetgreen. But I don't know if it's quick serve. It's where you're, where you're stepping up and you're going that. To me, I feel like only if you have a great digital platform can that be successful.
- [27:22]
Tim Seymour
Successful.
- [27:22]
Steve
Chipotle is probably the only one with a great digital platform. But the stock looks horrendous when you look at it on a chart. Maybe so bad it's good if Carter was on the desk right now. I do agree with Tim. I think you have some room to the downside here. I'd always bet on Starbucks, I'd always bet on Brian Nicoll versus where he came from. But I just don't like that whole group of restaurants unless you have a really strong play. And by the way, Domino's, they've already outgrown all the, all the growth, whether it's international, domestic, digital or not. They've already expanded their horizons. That chart looks terrible too.
- [27:55]
Steve Grasso
Well, I think the issue is like, as Tim pointed out very early on, Chipotle was very much a growth story. I mean, in line with an Uber or tech name. I mean, years of restaurant. But I mean, as you pointed out, Steve, the technological QSR aspect to it really drove growth. You haven't seen that growth in 8/4, 6/4. And for these to be trading at roughly 2x 2 1/2x the market multiple, I just don't understand how they can continue to stay where they are.
- [28:22]
Karen Finerman
This week. Green run, sort of interesting. I mean, you had to know this was not going to be a great quarter as everybody else announced over and over again. Yet it was down a fair amount. I mean, that same store sale number, really difficult. That restaurant margin, that was a big mess. The balance sheet's in very good shape, so that's not an issue. But that more than any of them seemed to me to be the target of where the pressure is on that consumer that.
- [28:50]
Tim Seymour
I caught a late bowl last night at Chipotle, by the way.
- [28:52]
Melissa Lee
A bowl? A bowl, yeah.
- [28:54]
Tim Seymour
I'm a bowl guy.
- [28:54]
Melissa Lee
How much was that bowl?
- [28:56]
Steve
You know?
- [28:56]
Tim Seymour
Well, I. I start out and I asked for chicken and I say, hey, can I actually try a little steak too? Next thing you know, I get 15 bucks.
- [29:02]
Melissa Lee
15.
- [29:03]
Tim Seymour
Pretty good.
- [29:03]
Karen Finerman
What did you call Chipotle on our call? What was it?
- [29:06]
Melissa Lee
Chipotle.
- [29:07]
Tim Seymour
Chipotle?
- [29:08]
Karen Finerman
No, Was it. It was an Under Armour reference.
- [29:10]
Tim Seymour
Oh, well, it's. It feels like. I don't want to feel like an under armor. It feels like an under armour moment.
- [29:15]
Melissa Lee
For this is pretty dire. Yeah, which would be dire. There's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.
- [29:23]
Tim Seymour
A nightmare Travel Before Christmas flights slashed at 40 of the country's busiest airports. What it means for the airlines and the holiday travel season. Plus, our traders are going bargain hunting for beaten down buys. The names that could be big winners in a weak spell for the market next. You're watching FAST MONEY live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this. The heaviest metal credit card of all time, rumored to be one of only 18 in existence, plated with the very same tungsten that forged the international space stat and wielded at business dinners like a samurai sword.
- [30:13]
Steve
It's a classic corporate power move.
- [30:16]
Tim Seymour
But the real power move, having end to end visibility on your most critical shipments.
- [30:21]
Steve
FedEx, the new power move.
- [30:24]
Tim Seymour
CNBC Sport on the Record, your front row seat to sports and business, from commissioners and owners to media executives and top athletes, these are Rembrandt, I'm telling you, these franchise on the Record all.
- [30:37]
Steve
New Saturdays, three Eastern.
- [30:40]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to FAST MONEY Airlines stocks popping late in the session on hopes that the government shutdown could soon be coming to a close. The jets ETF higher by more than 2%. Today was the first day that airlines began to cut hundreds of flights amid an air traffic controller shortage. If the Senate Democrats plan to reopen, the government does not go through. Flights could be canceled in greater numbers in the coming days, according to the faa. I'm sure there are a lot of people who are rethinking their travel plans at least in the coming days. I don't know how much of that is going to be able to be rebooked as opposed to it's just missed opportunity.
- [31:13]
Tim Seymour
Well, I guess I wonder here. I know the shutdown has had a big impact here. We've had a lot of different ways we've approached this. But it seems to me airlines, when it comes to hurricanes and things like this, it's the wrong time to either be a buyer or a seller. And I look at the Jets ETF as a benchmark for that space. And I don't, I don't think this was a huge bounce. I don't think there was a huge sell off. So I like airlines here. I like the top two. I like United and Delta a lot. I like the valuations. I like the margin story. I like some of the digital efficiency they're putting in their business.
- [31:46]
Steve Grasso
Yeah. I was going to say you really want to try to not over trade this market. I think that's what we were all saying in that first a block too late. But I'm with Tim. I mean if you want to be in the space, and I'm not necessarily a proponent of that, but I think it's Delta and United and everyone else. And if you're really particularly concerned about the shutdown, you probably want to lean a little bit more towards United because despite the fact that has a little bit less on the earnings potential or the earnings figures in Delta, it does have that international component that perhaps diversify. Diversifies you to. To a degree.
- [32:19]
Melissa Lee
Yeah. They are trying to avoid cuts to international flights.
- [32:23]
Steve
Yes. So you do have. That's why you go with Delta United but also the underperformer. So Delta United are right around UNST for the year. United is slightly outperforming Delta, but if you look at American airlines, that's down 22% year to date. So if there is a resolution, you probably will see the pop more in American than the others.
- [32:42]
Melissa Lee
All right, coming up, does big volatility yield a big opportunity? Are traders hopefully. So the names on their shopping list that could be ripe for a buy right after this.
- [32:55]
Tim Seymour
Missed a moment of fast. Catch us anytime on the go follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.
- [33:10]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to FAST money. Stocks rebounding to finish on the highs of the day and hopes to an end to end the longest ever government shutdown. Maybe it could be in sight. All three major indices closing the week though deep in the red. The Dow losing more than 1% since Monday. The S and P down over one and a half percent and the Nasdaq dropping a whopping 3%, its worst week since April. The trade desk also in deep in the red. Despite a strong earnings report, the advertising company beat expectations and gave strong guidance for the current quarter. It was also upgraded to a buy at benchmark, but shares close at their lowest level in nearly three years. Well, the broad market pullback this week got us wondering if the traders were finding any opportunities to buy the weakness. So we tasked each of them to put together a shopping list of names that are worth a look. So we start off with Steve, what are you looking at?
- [33:57]
Steve
So I had been long Boeing years and years ago. I rebought it yesterday right before it sold off. So terrible timing with the market. But the, the no criminal charges. The DOJ throwing out the no criminal, no criminal charges I thought was a positive catalyst ramping up 737 Max ramping up Dreamliner getting back to free cash flow. I thought all of these things and still in a duopoly. I think all of these things are a tailwind for the stock. It maybe take a stab at it. It got caught up in this sell off so I bought a little bit more today and I hopefully will be looking at higher prices.
- [34:33]
Melissa Lee
Yeah. By the way, how about you? What's on your list?
- [34:35]
Steve Grasso
So shocker, I took this assignment quite literally in terms of what name would I buy right now as opposed to a shopping list. AEP is a name that I own a name that I would have no problem adding to at this particular moment in time. I think essentially one it allows you to step down in terms of beta if you want kind of the data center upside play but it's keeping in mind that it's still a regulated utility so you are not going this is not out on the far edge in terms of independent unregulated power producer but it's still has that upside in terms of data center because of the markets that it's in. It's in Virginia, it's in Texas, it's in Ohio. These are the epicenters of where datacenter buildouts are happening and as they continue to make those capex expenditures into infrastructure they're able to continue to earn at in some cases an increasing rate. So you have the visibility of the your retail consumer but you also have the upside in terms of some of the tariffs and other things that have been negotiated in all Ohio for example that are holding the large consumers of power accountable for making up the difference and keeping power rates at an affordable rate for the individual consumer.
- [35:42]
Melissa Lee
That's a nice run year to date. It's also got a 3% dividend yield which is it does a nice bonus there from the stock.
- [35:49]
Karen Finerman
Karen so well, my shopping list I'm always long so I'm long going into this painful week or two but what I would like, I have some collars on. What I'd like to do is lift it the put side. So that would be selling the put which is essentially getting longer and that would be both for Metta and for Dell. So for Dell I think the multiples come down, the stocks come down a fair bit, 22 bucks maybe from the peak or so. I think that the multiple is not demanding as Guy would say. I think hopefully some of Super Micro's issues are a benefit to Dell, not a more industry wide problem. And I think that relatively low multiple is a way to Play AI one is inclined to do so. So that and Metta, you know, at 21 times now I used to say back out the cash but now I can't say that anymore because the cash is less than the debt. So you can't back out the cash. But still that multiple is cheap. It really gotten hit. So those would be my 2.
- [36:49]
Melissa Lee
Yeah, I knew you.
- [36:50]
Tim Seymour
I mean you had to be a buyer met on this pulled back anyway. So it was more than as a car. I heard you even slipped in. I'm even buying it. Right. I mean so I did start buying to suit.
- [37:00]
Karen Finerman
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [37:02]
Tim Seymour
I and I kind of played this game a little earlier in the show with Nvidia without playing the game. So just so you know, I wasn't breaking the rules. But I mean, you know, to me, you know, Nvidia was a name that this week, you know, this is an opportunity to buy it. But I'm going to go with gold miners and the exercise. I think that we were assigned here also. Yes, it was for this week because we're noting this week. But you could make an argument that there's been a pullback over the last month in a bunch of of these names, including Meta which is down almost 15% on a month. Gold miners are down 14% and you could take gold, the metal all the way down to 3,500. And that uptrend from the last from February 24th is still very much intact. I think analysts actually have a sigh of relief on a pullback in gold to be able to upgrade miners that much more. So nothing has changed in the backdrop for this story other than you've taken the word of the day froth out of that gold market. You're buying miners here.
- [37:49]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, our next guest is painting the town green. The stock she thinks is ready to rock and the return of the fast pitch that is next. Plus Disney in a standoff with Google's YouTube TV as it gets ready to report earnings next week. How options traders think the showdown could affect results. Fast Money's back in two. Welcome back to Fast Money. Paint maker Sherwin Williams going green today, up almost 2%. But the stock is down nearly 12% over the last year year. Our next guest thinks the stock is about to undergo a renovation. Obermyer Wealth Partners Ali Flynn Phillips is taking the mound for a fast pitch. Obermeyer was ranked 13th on CNBC's Financial Advisors 100 list. Ali, great to have you with us.
- [38:32]
Ali Flynn Phillips
Great to be here.
- [38:34]
Melissa Lee
What's the catalyst when they're sorry. Adelaide what's, what's the catalyst here for Sherwin Williams when there's not seemingly no catalyst for the housing market?
- [38:42]
Ali Flynn Phillips
Yeah, I mean to us, I mean Sherman Williams is a clear leader in painting and they continue to gain share from weaker competitors through their store build out and their direct relationships with contractors. Look, the home improvement market is really struggled. But if you see any easing in rates or a pickup in existing home sales, we think that should unlock a really powerful repaint and remodel story. The company recently just announced a 7% increase in January which will flow straight to the income statement. We don't believe analysts are modeling that. So to us in 2026 it sets up a real earnings and margin expansion story. As we exit this, what's really been a historically bad housing environment, it does.
- [39:20]
Melissa Lee
Seem like analysts were modeling in a 5% increase in price and not the 7. So you have that 2% upside to be had. But at the same time, going back to this notion of the housing market turning around, you said it will unlock if there's a turnaround, if there's a drop in rates, it's going to unlock a renovation, a huge cycle. Is that what we were waiting for?
- [39:41]
Ali Flynn Phillips
Well, I mean the nice thing about this most recent quarter, you've actually already seen some improvements to some of this turnarounds happening. It's just something that actually really should give it some reacceleration and allows us to be more bullish even within the current environment. The company continues to execute. This is just something which actually could unleash in terms of more margin expansion going forward.
- [39:59]
Steve
Ali, when I look at revenue, revenue, you addressed this slightly. Revenue has been stable but net income has been increasing up 12% or so. So that's what I'm keying on as far as the efficiencies. And I don't want to call it a turnaround story, but unlocking net income seems to be a canary in the coal mine for me when I'm looking at it. Do you agree, is that what what investors should concentrate on more than revenues?
- [40:24]
Ali Flynn Phillips
I would agree. Not only net income, also just their pricing power more than anything else that it really allows them to be able to keep with this margin expansion. So that's going to be more of a catalyst than potentially just look at the revenue line. It's good.
- [40:36]
Karen Finerman
Thanks so much for being on. So let me ask you, if I look at Lowe's and I look at the P E multiple there, and I look at Sherwood William, which I know it sells through Lowe's, not home Depot. Why be what do you like better about Sherwin Williams than Lowe's?
- [40:54]
Ali Flynn Phillips
Just like in terms of Sherwin Williams is more of a direct exposure to, in terms of actual repainting or cycle. Lowe's, as we all know in terms of has some other products in there. So we'd rather have a direct play in this environment. And actually we like Home Depot over Lowe's, but that's a whole other conversation. But do you think that Sherman Williams is a better play within the sector?
- [41:13]
Melissa Lee
How important is the professional, the contractor business for Sherwin Williams, specifically Ali.
- [41:21]
Ali Flynn Phillips
That's in terms of where you're going to have in terms of more stability going forward. Contractors tend to be in terms of very focused on quality. They don't switch relationships as much. So we think it is key but more than anything else is probably just be the overall backdrop or improvement within the remodel sector.
- [41:37]
Melissa Lee
All right, Allie, great to speak with you. Thanks for being on.
- [41:41]
Ali Flynn Phillips
Thanks so much.
- [41:42]
Melissa Lee
All right. What do you think of the fast pitch here? Sure.
- [41:44]
Tim Seymour
So I love that we're doing the fast pitch again. I think Ali threw a fastball because, because she's making a call on a stock that's been very resilient in a very difficult housing market. And it's, it's a medium to long term call, which my guess is with how she manages her clients. Money is a great call. So I kind of like it. I think they're, you know, they're controlling the part of the business that they can control in a difficult time. I think the valuation makes some sense and it's. Yes, it's absolutely best in class. I like it.
- [42:11]
Steve Grasso
You know, I like how she's getting her client to step down a bit in terms of beta and isn't pitching the high flying things that everybody else is probably out there advising their clients to be in there. There's no fomo. There's no, there's no chasing. I'm not sure if I want to allocate the next incremental dollar in the short term to Sherwin women to Sherwin Williams. However, I do think that sentiment likely can't get much poorer in the housing sector. And it does give you what seems to be a bit of asymmetric upside without taking on unnecessary risk and stepping up beta in your portfolio. So I think it's a strong pitch.
- [42:44]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, Disney headlining earnings next week. But the streaming giant is in a sticky situation with Google's YouTube TV going into those results. What options traders have to say about the standoff and results that's next. More fast money too. Welcome back to Fast Money. Disney, the big name reporting earnings next week. But there may be trouble in the Magic Kingdom. The entertainment giant is in day eight of a blackout of its content on Google's YouTube, TV, college football and ESPN. Monday night NFL on ABC and more. All off limits as the two companies trade barbs. And a memo to to Disney employees obtained by CNBC today seems to indicate there's no end in sight. Meanwhile, options traders betting on a major move when Disney reports earnings next Thursday. Mike Coe has the action. Mike?
- [43:34]
Steve Grasso
Yeah, so Disney's implied move by the end of next week is about 8.7%. That's in line with the eight and a half percent that the company has averaged over the last eight reported quarters. Flow for the last three weeks has generally been pretty positive. Calls outpacing puts as they did today, actually on slightly above average volume. The most active contracts that were not expiring today that we saw were the 112 calls expiring at the end of next week. 1780 of those traded for an average price of $3.70. Disney needs to rally by more than 4 1/2% by the end of next week for those calls to be profitable.
- [44:07]
Melissa Lee
Wow, that's kind of a lot, it seems, for Disney. What do you think, Tim?
- [44:11]
Tim Seymour
That's, that's great information from Mike. I didn't realize Disney was an eight and a half implied earnings, you know, volatility. Anyway, I like Disney and these numbers. I also think that what's going on more broadly with Paramount, Skydance, wbd, I think this is adding some value to the pieces of the business that people have given up on with Disney. So I think some of the legacy business we know is a dying asset, the melting ice cube. But we also know kind of where the parks have been. I think DTC has proven to be a really exciting part of the business. And I think this stock, which is we've been waiting now for almost eight years to move, might move a little.
- [44:48]
Steve
Yeah, and this is peanuts for Disney. They lose $5 million a day. It's been going on for eight days. It's nothing, nothing for them. I do agree that you could see some movement in the stock. When you look at parks, you look at media, this is really a non event for them. But I'd rather play Oops. Roku. Right? We had Carter on the desk the other night. Roku looks like a breakout. It's been performing very well. I'd rather stick with that. I don't get messy with all of the innards, if you will, on Disney.
- [45:15]
Melissa Lee
Whoa, visual.
- [45:16]
Steve
Sorry about that innards.
- [45:19]
Melissa Lee
Thanks, Mike. Up next, final trades, Final trade time for Friday. Tim Seymour I was kind of bullish.
- [45:33]
Tim Seymour
On Bitcoin, which means I'm definitely bullish on Coinbase and I remain so 5.
- [45:37]
Karen Finerman
Karen yes, so be careful what you wish for. I hope I get a chance to buy more meta next week following aep.
- [45:45]
Steve Grasso
Not afraid to buy it here, don't need a pullback and would would absolutely.
- [45:49]
Steve
Buy it higher Steve showing Fast Steve.
- [45:51]
Melissa Lee
Following Thanks for watching Fast Matt and Money with Jim Cramer starts.
- [46:05]
Emily Wilkins
All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer CNBC Sport on.
- [46:46]
Tim Seymour
The Record your front row seat to sports and business. From commissioners and owners to media executives and and top athletes, these are Rembrandts. I'm telling you, these franchises on the Record all new Saturdays three Eastern.