← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
Stocks & Commodities Hit Record Highs.. And Novo’s Weight Loss Pill Pop 12/23/25
00:43:53
The S&P 500 closing at a fresh record high, as commodities come along for the ride. If the metal moves in Gold, Silver, and Copper can keep rocking into the new year, and how this morning’s strong GDP report will impact the Fed’s next rate decision. Plus Shares of Novo Nordisk on the move as the pharma company’s weight loss pill gets approved by the FDA. How the decision can tip the scales for Novo, and what one analyst sees in store for the weight loss drug space. Fast Money Disclaimer
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- [00:01]
Tim Seymour
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- [00:30]
Capella University Announcer
At Capella University, learning the right skills could make a difference. That's why our business programs teach you relevant skills you can take from the course room to the workplace. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at capella. Edu.
- [00:47]
Melissa Lee
Live from the NASDAQ marketsite in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. The S and P setting a record close as we head into the final trading days of the year. Is this the start of a sustainable Santa Claus rally? Ho ho, ho, to set up into 2026. And Nike's biggest bull, the sportswear giant pacing for a fourth straight year of losses. But one analyst says shares are heading higher from here. He lays out his case later on this hour. Plus, Novo Nordisk scores a big win in the weight loss battle. Is now time to buy shares of Metta. And Tim's Mega has been a strong trade this year, but what's in store for international stocks once the ball drops, the ambassador will weigh in. I'm Melissa Lee, come to you live from Studio B at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Courtney Garcia, Steve Rosso and Guy Adami. And we start with that race to records in the last stretch of the year. The S and P rising half a percent, setting a record close, its 14th of the year. The Dow less than a percent off its own all time high as well. Today's gains come after a significantly stronger than expected GDP report. The US economy growing at 4.3% in the third quarter compared to an estimate of 2.8%. And it wasn't just stocks in rally mode today. Gold, Silver, lme, copper, all hitting all time highs as well. So you so does today set the stage for more records as we look to close out 2025? Guy nice to have a record close here in the final days.
- [02:09]
Guy Adami
You said ho ho.
- [02:10]
Melissa Lee
I did, yeah.
- [02:11]
Guy Adami
Well, Pierce, listen, so today we have no half day tomorrow, right? We have a full day, I think on Friday. Next week is the same type of week. It's hard pressed unless some piece of news comes out where the market's just not going to continue to levitate. The old saying is don't short adult market and that's what we're seeing. So I think you're going to continue to see that it's all asset classes and quite frankly it's a solo in the bond market as well, which also makes sense. We'll talk about GDP.
- [02:37]
Tim Seymour
Well, nominal growth is, is probably north of 5% here and there's an element on the inflation side that has to have you a little bit concerned, especially in a world where we had this kind of growth and we have an accommodative Fed equities should love this. And I think in the short run the Fed is your friend. But I look to 26 and I think it may not be as easy as it appears now with the Fed on this side and the view that the Fed's going to change, become a more dovish Fed. I think the dynamic here on corporate profit margins is also extraordinary. I think this is what we've seen over the last couple of quarters and I think we generally believe that the tailwinds are with us outside of trade tariff dynamics which are certainly eating into some corporates but others not so much. So I continue to be impressed by the fact that for all the negativity, or so it seems in terms of the headlines on the indices that semis continue to outperform. I think they will make a new relative high to the market before the end of the year and I think there are opportunities in some of those beaten up names. Broadcom is one where I just think a lot of that was, was overdone. But what's been impressive again I get back to banks, I get back to the cyclical part of the economy. That should reflect the kind of numbers we had today that, that really have been extraordinary. Citibank, I mean these are no longer value plays actually. These are actually ones that are expensive.
- [03:54]
Melissa Lee
Yeah, I mean on top of semiconductors, industrials, financials, they are at or close to all time highs at this point.
- [04:00]
Steve Grasso
And Wall street is trying to change the narrative. If you look at them, all the upgrades have been outside of tech, or I should say 40 of the last 50 have been outside of tech. If you think that tech is going to lead again, it could lead again. But you need to see that coming back in. If Micron had a bad print, we wouldn't have the Christmas rally. Micron, I don't want to say was the cause of it, but without it we wouldn't have had it, if that makes sense. I do think you're Going to see an easier Fed. I think the narrative changes once the year changes and I think we can go higher in the overall.
- [04:34]
Melissa Lee
It did seem that Micron enabled the bulls to see the bull case, right, to believe in it.
- [04:39]
Courtney Garcia
I mean, I think the bull case is still there. I mean, I think when you're getting this GDP print, clearly the economy is running hot. I think that's what people are looking for in 2026. We're also looking at, we are likely going to see some high refund checks next year. We're expecting 50 to $55 billion it's injected into the economy after those refunds come in. Next year, I think was really interesting to see was how strong the consumer was. And that's what we saw with the GDP report. And I think something people don't give enough credit to is how much baby boomers affect the economy. They like, they control like $84 trillion of net worth or something along those lines. They're a lot less affected by the labor market. So even though people are concerned, the labor market, software, a lot of that is being controlled by older generations who aren't affected by that. And I think you're going to see a lot of this continue into 2026 and continue to see the economy do well.
- [05:22]
Melissa Lee
How long though can the consumer feel bad? Fifth straight month of declines for consumer confidence. And continue to spend. I mean, at some point, I mean, yes, you'll get a $2,000 check, some households will, but that only lasts for so long.
- [05:34]
Guy Adami
Some of the things they're spending on, they have no choice. I mean, health care is a big component of this. I mean, you know, I think we all would agree that, you know, some things you have to do and obviously food costs and energy costs, although subsiding a little bit, I mean, they're still problematic. So they will continue to spend because they have no choice. The question is, should they be spending? And that's a conversation we have seemingly all the time.
- [05:56]
Tim Seymour
I think we get back to this really difficult to analyze K shaped economy and the different pieces of the consumer that we talk about in the different places where spending is actually really holding up. And I would point to airlines, I would point to certain parts of the travel experience. I would certainly, you know, we've talked to kind of top line service businesses and they continue to do better. But it's, it's a case where this has been very perplexing for the street, for the investor community to really say, I mean, it's not green light for the consumer, but it is a place where this kind of growth and those people that are employed are doing quite well here.
- [06:30]
Steve Grasso
And 20% of the highest income earners are doing 50% of the spend. And sentiment indicators are what people say they feel, but you have to see where they actually spend the money.
- [06:40]
Melissa Lee
Sure.
- [06:40]
Steve Grasso
So I think people actually feel better with a job and they spend versus the sentiment.
- [06:47]
Melissa Lee
So then what's the message here? You keep on carrying on, I mean, in terms of where the, where you see the leadership of the markets, you keep diversifying away from technology in order to sort of hedge that trade court. Yeah.
- [06:58]
Courtney Garcia
I think you want to. I think you want to broaden out here and I think you want to look at. There's been the real winners here, but people are still concerned about the spend that's happening in AI And I don't think that story is going away in 2026, but I do think people are really starting to get on board with this broadening idea that I think you are going to see continue happening. But one other thing we saw today is the dollar is weakening.
- [07:16]
Melissa Lee
Right.
- [07:16]
Courtney Garcia
And that's actually good for things like international, that's good for things like commodities. So I think there's a lot of places you can invest in outside of tech that have a real opportunity here.
- [07:24]
Guy Adami
Yeah, the dollar, listen, stopped going down seemingly around July, August of this year. It started to rally a little bit, but now I think Courtney's right to bring it up. I think that downward trajectory that it's been on for the last couple of years is going to continue. Dollar, euro, I think at around 118 or so, I think that is headed higher. Euro, higher dollar, lower dollar, yen, its own animal. But a weaker dollar is also a tax on the consumer that nobody is willing to talk about.
- [07:47]
Tim Seymour
And we're making highs in a lot of the industrial metals, as we know, we've talked about the precious metals, but we're also seeing it in the broader commodity complex. You're even seeing things like iron ore, which are more reflective of broader growth, start to creep back up. So I love the copper trade. I love copper miners here. They are breaking out. In fact, they're up almost 40%, really, since August. And there's an argument that some of these copper miners have a lot of exposure to gold that people don't realize. Freeport is certainly one of them. Southern copper is another one. So I like the trade. I think the dollar too, I think it's. It's not a straight line lower, but I think people had expected a weaker dollar. It was A very crowded trade at one point midyear that obviously people caught up and I think it's head lower.
- [08:25]
Steve Grasso
And the deficit from supply demand as a percentage for silver is around 13%. The deficit supply demand for copper is around 5%. But platinum, what was that? Platinum is only about. I'm sorry, platinum is 30% but no one talks about platinum. Right. So when you look at all these metals or industrial metals, those can go higher. Gold is more of a sentiment. There's no industrial use with gold.
- [08:52]
Melissa Lee
Dig deeper into today's better than expected gdp. Print the President dismissing fears the hot data should keep the Fed from further cutting rates. Posting on Truth Social in part inflation will take care of itself and if it doesn't, we can always raise rates at the appropriate time. But the appropriate time is not to kill rallies which could lift our nation by 10, 15, even 20 GDP points in a year and maybe even more than that. For more let's bring in Joe Lavornia, councilor to the Secretary of the Treasury Department. Joe, great to have you with us. Would you. Do you agree with that sentiment?
- [09:28]
Joe Lavornia
I do. I mean the thing is the GDP numbers which we could get into were fantastic, was all private sector led. But what struck me Melissa, is the profound weakness in the interest sensitive sectors of the economy such as structures and residential structures which are factories by the way. They'll get a huge lift with the tax bill. 2026 should be great. But we've had seven quarters in a row where structures investment declined, three quarters in a row where residential investments declined. And that certainly is interest sensitive related. So yes, the economy is booming. I still think the potential of the economy is, is excellent. As the president said in 2026 should be a banner year given these current current trends we're seeing.
- [10:09]
Melissa Lee
So if the economy is booming Joe, why. Why is there a need to hand out $2,000 stimulus checks to cut interest rates? If the economy is booming, shouldn't we be concerned about inflation?
- [10:23]
Joe Lavornia
Well yes, we inflation certainly an issue. It rose to a 40 year high under the prior administration. But what we're seeing Melissa, this is a really a capex led boom. We're seeing a significant narrowing in the trade deficit. You will start to see more re industrial, more re industrialization, more building here in the US and those sort of booms tend to be very disinflationary. The yield curve is very flat. The real broad trade weighted dollar still at a very high level. Inflation expectations are very well contained. So certainly interest sensitive activity which I alluded to has been soft that should Recover if rates come down and rates should come down so that the economy could reach its full potential on the checks. I wouldn't categorize that as stimulus checks. That's money given to hardworking men and women in the armed forces. This was done back in July. This isn't new information. It'll go a long way to helping them deal with cost of living increases.
- [11:20]
Melissa Lee
Ok, so even though it's money given to some households, it is not going to be inflationary.
- [11:25]
Joe Lavornia
Well, it's money. Yes it is. It's an important amount. It's not an amount that is going to change the inflation dynamic. A bigger number which is going to impact even a bigger swath of Americans, working class Americans, the no tax on tips and overtime, those are basically supply side initiatives. If you're going to be encouraged to work more overtime, you're working hard for tips, you're going to work more. We have seen labor force participation edge higher. I think it will go up significantly more next year. So again, that's not inflationary. That is more productive capacity, more labor coming into the market. That's what we saw in the first administration and we should see it again. Supply side driven growth.
- [12:04]
Melissa Lee
So do you think that there is not any inflation problem, inflationary problems in the economy at this point? I mean when Americans are facing higher health care costs and higher electricity costs and higher insurance costs, is there an inflation problem? Is the Fed too hung up on inflation?
- [12:24]
Joe Lavornia
Well, inflation, you know, right now, inflation, the inflation rate right now is, is to 7. It was a little higher than that the last month that Joe Biden was in office. Inflation we believe will go lower. Gasoline and energy, more broadly speaking, Melissa, is a very important disinflationary force because gasoline energy is used in so many products. There are many second and third order effects. We do expect the inflation rate to move lower. The markets are certainly in agreement with that. As I mentioned, inflation expectations are, are very stable. We are seeing look at blue collar wages, non supervisory production workers. Through the first 11 months of this year, wages are up 1.6% annualized. That is one of the biggest increases start a new administration in decades. So the policies are trying to be designed to raise after tax incomes, lower the inflation rate, build up productive capacity and improve living standards. Right now I'd say the record is very good. Nobody thought that I spoke to, even in the private sector thought the economy could generate 4% type of growth 2/4 in a row. And we know from the last cpi, which is November, because inflation data today are stale. We know from the November inflation data, inflation surprise meaningfully to the downside. So we hope these trends and believe these trends will continue.
- [13:39]
Tim Seymour
Joe Tim, I'm not going to ask you to speak for the administration on the direction of the dollar because typically administrations don't although you know, my guess is they like to see a weaker dollar and ultimately the dynamic we're just talking about here on the inflationary side does that concern you as another ingredient in upward price pressure? Because the dollar was surprisingly strong but central bank differentials, the ones you're espousing, which is a softer Fed here, really dictate that the dollar should go significantly lower.
- [14:10]
Joe Lavornia
Well Tim, this is the thing. If you look at the real broad traded dollar, not DXY which overweights the euro by 50% plus the real broad trade weighted dollar is very high. The Treasury Secretary is adamant, and this is key, that the US remain its reserve currency and have its signature status globally. Markets will move around time, place to place. We get those volatilities. We've not seen any weakness from any dollar weakness impact import prices. Import prices, non petroleum import prices are very soft. So there has not been an inflationary impulse from a dollar that's been softer vis a vis a few countries. And of course on the tariffs we have not seen the tariff effect that everybody thought would be manifest. It just has not shown up yet if at all. It probably never will.
- [14:57]
Melissa Lee
Do you think it never will or do you think it's yet to come?
- [15:00]
Joe Lavornia
I don't think it will. I mean it just well I mean again the inflate the Since March, Melissa, the consensus has consistently overestimated inflation and did it just again last week. So I mean could it show up at some point? Maybe. I mean a lot of things could happen. It doesn't mean they will. I don't expect it to happen again. If you're here's the thing. If you're investing in technology and you've got capital expending, capital expenditures growing and you've got booming productivity, non financial corporate Productivity rose over 5% in the second quarter. It was up nearly 3 and a half percent year on year. In Q2 you fast forward to Q3, GDP was up massively. You're going to get another huge productivity number. Nominal GDP was up over 8%. You had a 13% plus increase year on year in stock prices. So the corporate profitability is there. What do we know in the past you've got good corporate profitability, you've got rising capex, you've got deregulation, lower energy Costs that always leads to much faster hiring and rising real wages. So I think the outlook is great and I think people are way too hung up on the inflation numbers we've had. The outlook will get much better.
- [16:08]
Melissa Lee
Joe, great to speak with you. Thank you. Happy holidays.
- [16:11]
Joe Lavornia
Thank you. Merry Christmas everybody.
- [16:12]
Melissa Lee
Merry Christmas. Joe Lavornia, what do you, I mean should. Are we just too hung up on inflation at this point?
- [16:19]
Guy Adami
I don't think so. Well, it's not about me being hung up on it. I mean if you listen to what people say, the majority of people in this country are hung up on it. They're feeling the pain. I mean it's not this administration at the price. This is a cumulative effect of many years. Listen to what Scott Bessen said about the Fed. I mean they've created this wealth gap and inflation is really the culprit. So I don't think we're too hung up on it in terms of the market, maybe a little bit. But I'll say this about the GDP number. Yeah, the headline number is great. The biggest component of it is health care costs. I don't think that's what you want as the biggest component of a GDP growth of that magnitude.
- [16:52]
Steve Grasso
And the reason, another reason outside of tech being able to get back on its feet was CPI surprise to the downside with owners equivalent rent being lower than expected. Owner's equivalent rent is only factored every six months. So we're going to get good CPI for the next couple of months which keeps the Fed in check, which keeps rates moving lower.
- [17:12]
Melissa Lee
Right. Meantime let's get to bitcoin down again today and racing pacing season for its third straight down month. The crypto now more than 30% off its record high. It's taking crypto treasury stocks along with its Strategy down nearly 4% today it is down more than 65% from its 52 week high. And take a look at some of the others. But bit mine immersion for instance, well off of their highs as well. What's going on here, do you think?
- [17:35]
Tim Seymour
Well, again I would argue that the fundamental case for bitcoin is, is well established and we're in a predictable range and a pullback. I think lever plays on bitcoin are obviously struggling and you know, it's like any margin situation, you're certainly going a little bit of leverage on the way down can be extremely painful. I think the frothiness around an investor profile that tends to be a little bit higher volatility, not the strongest hands is part of what you've also seen in the associated crypto currencies. But buying weakness in bitcoin is something to me that I think investors are supposed to be doing here.
- [18:13]
Melissa Lee
Are your clients buying weakness in bitcoin?
- [18:16]
Courtney Garcia
Yeah, I mean bitcoin isn't something that we use in our portfolio. But yes, I'm getting questions on this all the time and I do think that my, my real bitcoin bulls want to buy more of it every time it pulls back like this. So I think you're going to continue to see that in the retail trader. But I think a lot of this does have to do with kind of that risk off trade. Like people are saying, okay, maybe I should move outside of tech. Bitcoin has a high correlation to that. And I think as people are going to look to rotate out to other sectors, I think that's what you're seeing here as well.
- [18:40]
Guy Adami
Well, it's clear that the decoupling from gold and bitcoin, I think we can put that to bed. I mean gold is its own asset class. I think we're understanding that. And I'll say again, I think the market is going to test the average price that Strategy owns their 670,000 Bitcoin, which is little north of 75,000. And if and when that happens, I'm pretty convinced that you're going to get a risk off in the equity market because I do think there's a huge overlap of people that are in crypto and they're in the tech trade as well.
- [19:08]
Melissa Lee
Coming up overseas opportunity in the new year. What Tim Seymour sees in store for international investing. Where Wall street stands on China next plus Metta is the max of a name furthest off its all time high, down more than 16% from its record. But one firm says it may be time to buy the pullback. The details behind that call straight ahead. Don't go anywhere. Fast money is back into.
- [19:30]
Capella University Announcer
At Capella University, learning the right skills could make a difference. That's why our business programs teach you relevant skills you can take from the course room to the workplace. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at capella. Edu.
- [19:45]
Brian Nagel
The McDonald's snack wrap is back.
- [19:47]
Tim Seymour
You brought it back.
- [19:49]
Brian Nagel
Ranch snack wrap. Spicy snack wrap.
- [19:52]
Tim Seymour
You broke the Internet for a snack.
- [19:56]
Brian Nagel
Snack wrap is back.
- [19:58]
Melissa Lee
Ba da ba ba ba. What made you confident that you could.
- [20:02]
Courtney Garcia
Do something that hadn't been done before?
- [20:04]
Tim Seymour
I have no fear of failure.
- [20:06]
Capella University Announcer
Trailblazing women, changing the game.
- [20:09]
Melissa Lee
One of my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs. Leadership can look in many, many different forms. It really does come down to just trusting yourself. Life is short and you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.
- [20:23]
Capella University Announcer
Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players New episodes every Tuesday, wherever you get your podcasts forecast.
- [20:33]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. Analysts at Bear today saying it may be time to buy Metta. With the stock's recent weakness creating entry points for opportunistic buyers, the firm seeing catalysts from better execution and AI as well as ramping monetization for WhatsApp and Threads. Baird though did acknowledge short term risks and lowered Its price target five bucks to 815. You like matter here?
- [20:55]
Courtney Garcia
You know, I think it definitely still has some headwinds ahead of it and I think people are concerned with the spend like that's why it clearly has not recovered from the highs that it had back in August. But I do think they're in their call here, they're saying that the pendulum is just swung too far to the negative. And I could buy that here where you're saying okay, maybe it still has some headwinds, but have we just turned too negative on it? And if they can really use their AI to help their advertising monetization and especially as you're seeing that on Threads, you're seeing that on WhatsApp. I do think there is some upside that can be had. I don't know if that's immediately, but I understand that it is like a longer term call and I think I could buy into that.
- [21:29]
Melissa Lee
Do we need though to see a change in the narrative in terms of the concern about Capex spend in order for Metta in particular to turn around?
- [21:37]
Tim Seymour
I think so and I think we've heard bits and pieces of that. I think they're also going to spend and do what they have to do, as we've seen and at times that's been to the frustration of investors. And I just believe in the long haul here of both the earnings power, the PEG ratio. So the price to the earnings growth here at Meta is something that I think is about as attractive as you're going to get in a stock this big. I was nibbling a little bit on some weakness for an account or two. I just think this is one where I'm buying at 10% off of a 25% pullback and I can do that here.
- [22:09]
Guy Adami
Market multiple makes more than makes sense in my opinion. And you go back to February, look at the sell off from February and April. That's the same magnitude sell off we just saw from the recent all time high until we saw a couple of weeks ago that subsequently made a new all time high and I think we're setting up now to make a new all time high.
- [22:25]
Steve Grasso
They become really good at throttling that expense. To your point about capex, but 90, 98% of revenues is ad dollars. Google it's 75%. I think you're putting all of your eggs in one basket. If the economy doesn't do so well, first thing people do is cut back on ad spend.
- [22:42]
Tim Seymour
Right?
- [22:42]
Steve Grasso
We've seen that with other companies, but I think it's more about the Capex spend, whether they can find that middle ground that the investor base likes.
- [22:50]
Melissa Lee
There's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.
- [22:54]
Tim Seymour
International Opportunities for 2026 where Tim is putting money to work overseas in the new year. And what Wall street sees in store for the China trade. Plus an easy to swallow pill. The latest weight loss headlines. Tipping the scales in favor of Novo Nordisk. Could this be the start of a turnaround for the name? You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.
- [23:26]
Melissa Lee
What made you confident that you could.
- [23:28]
Courtney Garcia
Do something that hadn't been done before? I have no fear of fail.
- [23:32]
Capella University Announcer
Trailblazing women, changing the game.
- [23:34]
Melissa Lee
One of my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs. Leadership can look in many, many different forms. It really does come down to just trusting yourself. Life is short and you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.
- [23:48]
Capella University Announcer
Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players New episodes every Tuesday, wherever you get your podcast.
- [23:58]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money City. Downgrading China today to neutral from overweight, setting a less favorable earnings revision environment in a lackluster macro picture. But the firm maintained an overweight on broader emerging markets. So Tim, what does this mean for Mega in the new year?
- [24:13]
Tim Seymour
Well, the setup for Mega is the part of the show that we've already talked about, which is I think the dollar is your friend, meaning weaker dollar which supports buying stuff in foreign currencies. And some will outperform others. I think a weaker Fed also emerging markets typically are very concerned around Fed hiking cycles. The other side is when the Fed's cutting. Historically it's because there are problems globally with the economy. When you have a 4.3% print like this, this really means that growth countries with a more benign rate outlook and a weaker dollar, it's a great backdrop. I continue to think Europe is going to surprise in terms of EPS growth places across Europe. I talk about European money center banks all the time but even some of the European staples tobaccos like Imperial but also British tobaccos. These are two names that are in ideal my international etf. I think you've got a dynamic with European industrials. I love Siemens. I even like that for the datacenter trade. Some of the same trades that you are tracking investors you being folks at home are some of the same trades you can find around the world. You're just not as attuned to those plays ASML you like DRAM four times moving spot. This is one of the biggest players that actually has order book that's going to be very strong and I think you're buying some weakness here. So some of the same themes I want to play Taiwan semi is we talk enough about that. Everybody knows this is arguably the second most important semiconductor company in the world which means it's arguably the second most important company in the world. These are all international trends. The backdrop is good where you have above trend growth and very benign dynamics with the Fed.
- [25:40]
Melissa Lee
So definitely a developed markets tilt as opposed to emerging markets tilt.
- [25:45]
Tim Seymour
I think so. And I invest in so MSCI all world ex US which is 75% developed developed, 25% emerging. I think that's your right mix. I don't think you have to reach too far out the risk curve to find great growth and a lot of dividend growth. Superior dividend growth.
- [25:58]
Guy Adami
In fact Brazil I look at though that's not. I don't think it's developed. I think it's emerging still. But that's breaking out of a six year downtrend. If you look at a chart and if you want to be in materials, some banks, some energy EWC is a place to be. You got vale is a big component of it. I think if you like materials you almost have to like Brazil.
- [26:15]
Steve Grasso
Yeah, that's what I was going to go with. You have to go with commodity based countries. If the price is going up they're going to do much better. And Brazil is outsized lever to commodities.
- [26:24]
Courtney Garcia
You actually you stole that point out of my. Out of my. Yes. I think the commodities is something you want to look at and that's going to benefit emerging markets. Most of our clients have been shocked to hear how well international's done. I don't think people are talking enough about that this year and it's been outperforming the SB500 that's both developed and emerging markets. But I don't think that's a reason you want to get out of it. Just because I had this one year of outperformance is underperforming formed for so many years. I think this is really just the start of it. I think you absolutely want to be in that.
- [26:49]
Melissa Lee
Going into 2026, is there still underinvestment?
- [26:52]
Tim Seymour
Absolutely. Internationally and so on a desk where we're stealing each other's ideas. Courtney didn't steal my day. She's got, she's nailed it. I mean I think the underperformance of international is something that, you know, I believe in long term mean reversion trades. That underperformance is turned and yes, they're under invested. And a lot of people ask what's my international weighting? I think 10% is light. 40 years ago it was probably 40% international here. 20 years ago it was probably. The other part about it is also foreign investors bringing more of their money back home. Not because it's anti US sentiment. It's just the oxygen that was crowded out by the tech trade. That number is part of the reason that international markets are going to go higher.
- [27:33]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, Novo's pill pop, the struggling drug maker finally getting a win in the weight loss space. But can the stock regain its former glory? What one analyst sees in store for the name and Fast money returns Missed.
- [27:46]
Tim Seymour
A moment of fast Catch us anytime on the Go follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.
- [27:58]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. The S&P 500 setting a record close ahead of tomorrow's shortened Christmas Eve trading session. The dow climbing about 80 points. The NASDAQ gaining more than half a percent. Shares of Lionsgate Studios jumping more than 7% today. We spoke to vice chair Michael Burns yesterday on Fast Money where he laid out why Lionsgate is well positioned in the streaming landscape, calling the studio a benevolent arms dealer when it comes to content in the space. The stock is up 20% this year. Shares of a UI path higher after hours. The stock will replace Synovus Financial and the S and p mid cap 400 index as of January 2nd. Our soon to be parent company Versant Media will join the Small cap index on January 6th. And GM lower. The wall Street Journal reporting the company is investigating an airbag that exploded in a recalled. In a recalled by unrepaired GMC Sierra truck.
- [28:44]
Tim Seymour
Did I mention I love small caps, by the way? Just always thought small caps were really important. Just kidding. I just mentioned our parent company. I'm being a little sarcastic.
- [28:56]
Melissa Lee
Not about that index Buyers is good for Versant Media, our soon to be parent company. All right, Novo Nordisk shares popping more than 7% today after the FDA approved the company's GLP1 pill. News that we broke yesterday on Fast Money. The drug would be the first ever oral treatment for obesity, is expected to be available starting in January. For more on its first ever GLP1 pill, Guggenheim partner Seamus Fernandez joins us now. He is the firm's managing director and pharma analyst. Seamus, great to have you with us.
- [29:23]
Seamus Fernandez
Nice to see you.
- [29:24]
Melissa Lee
Does this change the competitive landscape at all with Eli Lilly's OR four coming on and some other competitors coming down the pike?
- [29:33]
Seamus Fernandez
That's a great question. I mean, I think it doesn't necessarily change the competitive landscape that dramatically, but it does give Novo an opportunity to gain a foothold in the pill market. That's going to develop, we expect, very quickly. It really depends on how much Novo can supply of Wegovy pills, which, you know, I think is still a little bit uncertain. So that's something that we think the company is going to need to clarify with investors, broadly speaking. But, you know, there is a very substantial opportunity for any pill to basically expand in this market. And we think both Wegovy pill and Lilly's Orphaglypron are going to be successful in growing the market.
- [30:18]
Melissa Lee
They've already started manufacturing in North Carolina, and they made a point that it's going to be end to end. The active ingredient, ingredient will be manufactured at that North Carolina plant. Is there a question in your mind about the ability of Novo to manufacture to meet demand? I mean, it is a more complicated molecule than or for glypron to manufacture. So do you think that there is a question mark?
- [30:40]
Seamus Fernandez
So it's slightly more complicated to manufacture, But I think the other factor here is also that there's a lot more product necessary to actually put into this pill in order for it to be as effective as an injectable. So I think that's the factor that's really kind of coming into play here, is that you almost need 70 times as much of the molecule to actually go into the gut so that it can cross into the circulation, where an injectable actually just gets sort of right into your system, right into your system and works very, very quickly and very effectively.
- [31:18]
Melissa Lee
There are also some constraints in terms of when you take the pillars, you know, during the day, how much water you can have, when you can then take other medication or have other food, et cetera. Is this just going to be sort of a test? I Mean, when consumers try this and then Orphaglipron comes on the market shortly, are they just going to switch in the end? I mean, how much is this really Novo Nordisk ability to gain back some of the market share it may have lost to Eli Lilly?
- [31:47]
Seamus Fernandez
Yeah, I think they're. That's the ultimate test this year in 2026. I think we're really going to know and learn what consumers actually prefer. Do they prefer a very easy pill to take that could be slightly less well tolerated? You know, I think those are the outstanding questions at this point. Lilly does have a great experience with its own Lilly Direct, and so I think Lilly has shown its ability to market to the consumer very, very effectively. This is actually Novo's test this year to see if they can kind of live up to the expectations and live up to the path that Lilly has to some degree laid with their own Lilly Direct availability.
- [32:36]
Melissa Lee
What do you think Novo Nordisk should do to improve its pipeline? It tried very hard to get. Matsera was not successful. Lilly has a much deeper obesity pipeline. It's other drugs also for other indications. What do you think Novo needs to do?
- [32:51]
Seamus Fernandez
Yeah, it's the critical question at the end of the day. I think they are moving as quickly as possible to develop their obesity and diabetes portfolio. In all honesty, we're in writing saying this. We think that they should expand beyond that, frankly, and move into other areas as well. Just being focused exclusively in obesity and diabetes, I think, can be problematic. It's not that the company doesn't have other areas that they have products in, but those tend to be rare and much smaller opportunities. Cardiovascular disease, other areas like that, as well as potentially, you know, advancing a small molecule that can be manufactured at scale globally for hundreds of millions of patients is kind of the next step along the way to, I think, Novo regaining, you know, some of the luster that it had in the last two years.
- [33:51]
Melissa Lee
So basically, it needs to do a transformative acquisition, is what you're saying, in 2026.
- [33:57]
Seamus Fernandez
I wouldn't go that far. I don't think we've said that specifically, but I think they need to build out their pipeline both in diabetes and obesity and then also potentially in other adjacent areas, you know, like cardiovascular disease, where it fits, actually quite well.
- [34:15]
Melissa Lee
Okay, Seamus, great to see you. Thank you so much. Seamus of Guggenheim, you own it. How are you feeling about Novo now?
- [34:24]
Tim Seymour
Well, I think it's. It's Lilly's battle to lose here on oral, but I do think this is an important step. The stock reflected that today And I think the other part of this discussion is there is some slowing in growth, maybe even giving ground to some of the compounders. And both companies have said it's kind of hard to convert some of these folks at some point. So I think that's good news for Nova. I think the, the expectations on growth have been so level set here because it's not going to be pretty in the fourth quarter numbers that come out. So I'd like to believe we've got that in the price. I do think again, go back to kind of your global investing. I mean, this is one of the largest companies in Europe, if not the largest or it certainly was recently. It's a case where I just think the expectations have to have been level set that transformative transaction. I don't know that it needs to happen to move the stock higher though. And I think the stock can.
- [35:17]
Guy Adami
Last night when it broke, I mean I thought given the sell off the stock has had Since June of 24, this to me should have been a 15 to 20% move. This is a headline that I think people are waiting for was up 7% today, which is something but not nearly as robust as I would have thought. We'll see how it trades next week. But the other names Tim mentioned, like if you look at Merck, highest closing price in a while, Bristol breaking out and these biotech names we talk about.
- [35:40]
Melissa Lee
Still doing well coming up, a new year Swoosh the next move for Nike as shares trade near eight month lows. What Wall Street's biggest bull season store for the beaten down retailer when Fast Money returns. Welcome back to fast money. Shares of Nike down nearly 13% since it gave disappointing guidance during its earnings call last Thursday. The stock has lost almost a quarter of its value this year. But Oppenheimer ranks the athletic wear maker a top play for 2026. And its $120 price target is the highest on the Street. This according to factset. Oppenheimer senior analyst Brian Nagel is behind that call. He joins us now. Brian, great to see you.
- [36:20]
Brian Nagel
I see you too.
- [36:21]
Melissa Lee
What did you hear on the earnings call that makes you think that it's the top pick for next year?
- [36:26]
Brian Nagel
Well, look, I mean, I think, you know, for me the biggest positive here with Nike and I mean recognizing this is a very large company undertaking a turnaround. But I think the biggest positive is that where this management team has focused, they're seeing success. So if you dig through all those results and they highlighted this on their call and in the results. But what you've Basically seen is much better wholesale growth in North America, you know, that's being driven by now a clean marketplace. But more importantly the new products they've introduced, particularly in the running categories and some other areas that China is still weak, there's still weakness outside of North America, DTC is still weak, but again for me really counts here. What gives me confidence in this call into 2026 is where the management team has focused, they are seeing success and I think that focus will just keep basically cycling through this enterprise and at some point the whole thing will be working.
- [37:19]
Melissa Lee
The new shoes do seem to be resonating. Brian, I'm just curious though, if you assume that China is going to continue to be weak, which I think a lot of people do assume, I mean, can Nike still have that turnaround ex China?
- [37:32]
Brian Nagel
No. That's a great question. I think the answer is yes. Okay. I mean China is obviously important to Nike. It's important for Nike's longer term growth prospects. Okay. But there's a lot of opportunity here within this very big company to turn around while China may still be languishing. Now all that said, you know, if you go back to the comments that CEO Elliot Hill made on the conference call last week, you know, they're, they're basically enacting a North America style turnaround in China. Now it doesn't mean it's going to happen overnight, but I think the positive here is they know how to do it again, clean out the marketplace, introduce better innovation that resonates with consumers. So they have the playbook. It's going to take a while. But look, I think Nike can, there's a lot of areas that can continue to turn around here before China is fixed.
- [38:18]
Tim Seymour
Brian, it's Tim, I tend to agree with you on the view here. I guess I'm a little surprised at the price target which, where you put that into an, either an EPS profile or a multiple. Why do you need to be at 120? Because that, you know, I'm not sure where you have your target on 26 EPS, but the math says that it's north of 50. Am I wrong on that? Because again, I'm bullish. But I don't see the EPS turnaround as quickly as your share target suggests now.
- [38:47]
Brian Nagel
So we tend to, at Oppenheimer we tend to set our price targets with a 12 to 18 month horizon. Okay. So that's, you know, we consider in our terms they were kind of intermediate, maybe even longer term target. So that, that's how, that's kind of timeframe I'm looking for me. You know, I think the components here you want earnings are very depressed, okay? So what you know, we've seen, you know, Nike has struggle. They had the wrong product, okay? The consumers to a certain ext stand turned away from the brand. Okay? So that was an earnings, the sales and earnings negative. But more, more recently there's been a lot of this repositioning effort. Okay? So like I mentioned a moment ago, you know, Nike's very aggressively cleared old product a cause there's been a cost associated with that and then what most. And then more recently than that you've had tariffs. You know and I think it's a very interesting conversation because what Nike is basically saying is that the tariffs will cost them $1.5 billion. Okay? Right now they're not offsetting those tariffs. So that $1.5 billion is basically weighing upon profitability over the next year, year and a half, Nike will work to offset those tariffs. But what that all basically means is if you look at earnings right now for Nike, they're depressed, okay? Now when I think about that price target, I think what you're going to see is earnings go from depressed to normalized over time and basically the markets start to really respect the longer term earnings power this model and apply a healthy multiple to that. And that's basically how I get to that 120 target.
- [40:15]
Steve Grasso
Brian done an excellent job on the numbers but for the last five years the stock has been in a declining trend line and Elliott only wears it for the last year. Do you think that in on sentiment they need a new CEO? I love Elliott, but he's been there forever. Do you think they need a moment like, like Lulu had?
- [40:38]
Brian Nagel
No, I mean, look, to be clear, I mean I think Elliot's the right guy. Okay. And you know, just to me to basically frame it for the audience, you know, Elliot is a lifelong Nike employee. He left, he retired. Okay. He came back roughly a year ago. I think you said this, you know, to kind of to run the company. Everything I can tell he's absolutely the right guy. He knows the company, he knows the brand. He's beloved within the organization. And frankly I've been quite impressed with how quickly things have started to turn under his guidance. Now again, like I said at the onset of this segment, this is a big company. We're talking $50 billion operations in 190 countries. It's going to take time. But look, I think Elliot's actually so far been really successful in this turnaround.
- [41:21]
Melissa Lee
Brian, great to get your Thoughts? Thank you. Brian Nagel Oppenheimer. Courtney, would you dip into Nike here?
- [41:28]
Courtney Garcia
You know, I do think when they came out with their earnings, I think the fact that they did have like 9% sales growth here in North America was very positive. So that was obviously very overshadowed by what's happening in China. But I can believe that a turnaround is starting to happen here. So again, I don't think this is a short term story and I don't know if I think you brought this up, but I think it might be a higher price target than I would probably put it at. But I can't believe here there's some upside.
- [41:49]
Tim Seymour
It's still a 60 multiple. Like go out 18 months. I mean, they haven't made three bucks a share anytime recently.
- [41:56]
Guy Adami
It's expensive. Competition is fierce in this space. I mean, they're behind the eight ball. It's a lot like Lululemon, as Steve just pointed out. The good news is you finally saw that bounce in Lululemon. I think that's what you hope. The business isn't fixed, but the stock bounce, you're hoping for the same in Nike.
- [42:12]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, bourbon on the rocks. He travels, hitting spirit makers and whether the industry can bounce back amid slowing demand. More fast money into.
- [42:21]
Joe Lavornia
The.
- [42:26]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to fast money. Shares of Jack Daniels maker Brown Forman dropping more than 5% today as the whiskey industry faces slowing demand as well as lingering impacts from tariffs. Rival Jim Beam, which is owned by Japan. Suntory, putting production on ice and shutting down its Kentucky distillery for a year. Spirits makers down around 30% in 2025. Tim, you've been in and out of this trade.
- [42:50]
Tim Seymour
Yeah, I think. Is Diageo maybe the D and Bant? I don't know. I feel, I don't know, someone needs to remind me. Cliffs, I think I don't run for my acronym because at least I play the game correctly even if I don't do that well sometimes. Diageo has been disappointing. So it's a combination of a little bit of market share erosion. Clearly some trends going on on consumption, on alcohol, especially in younger demographics. Clearly some foreign aspirational buying. I think this is the number one spirits company in the world and I think you can own it here. But I'm not sure what changes. I'm not sure what changes in the short term.
- [43:25]
Steve Grasso
Yeah, you have to migrate. If you look at Bud, they make the ready to drink cocktails. So if you've noticed that whenever you go to a party in the cooler or on the bar, there's always A ready to drink cocktail that's already pre mixed. You guys haven't had that?
- [43:39]
Melissa Lee
Sounds disgusting.
- [43:40]
Tim Seymour
Someone hands me a ready to drink cocktail.
- [43:42]
Steve Grasso
Stock is up 28%.
- [43:45]
Tim Seymour
Stock is up.
- [43:45]
Melissa Lee
Seltzer into alcohol.
- [43:47]
Steve Grasso
You can't. You can, but it cuts. It cuts down when you have a bunch of people at the party, right? So. Hey, by the way, I'm just talking about facts. Bud's up 27%. Tiago got. Got slaughtered in the market. If you sell this new generation does not drink the alcohol that we drank.
- [44:04]
Melissa Lee
It's a different change.
- [44:05]
Steve Grasso
It's a different change.
- [44:06]
Melissa Lee
Yeah. Up next, final trades. Before we get to final trays, we have a quick holiday surprise. Our friends over at Jolly Rancher sent us some holiday treats. Look at this nice gift basket.
- [44:28]
Guy Adami
This is from angel, our Chambeau president, US Confection commercial company.
- [44:33]
Tim Seymour
Sweet job.
- [44:34]
Brian Nagel
Thank you.
- [44:34]
Guy Adami
I mean, come on.
- [44:35]
Tim Seymour
That's very. First of all, very sweet. Pun intended. Also, I have to tell you, the turn in Hershey's is interesting here. North America's recovered. I'm not just saying it because there's some sweet stuff next to me. Kind of like this one.
- [44:45]
Melissa Lee
Yeah, the gummies are good. Final trade time, Tim.
- [44:48]
Tim Seymour
Yeah, I guess. Not a good time for me to have Novo Nordisk as my trade, but guess what? Here we are.
- [44:55]
Courtney Garcia
No, Courtney, we talked about Copper. I think Freeport McMoRan is a name to take a look at here.
- [44:59]
Melissa Lee
Steve.
- [45:00]
Joe Lavornia
Boeing.
- [45:00]
Tim Seymour
It's been working.
- [45:01]
Steve Grasso
I'm looking for another 20% to the upside guy.
- [45:04]
Guy Adami
Looking forward to seeing you next week, Malms. Big week.
- [45:07]
Melissa Lee
I'm off. I'll be on tomorrow morning, though.
- [45:09]
Guy Adami
On the Squawkin Box.
- [45:11]
Melissa Lee
On the Squawkin Box.
- [45:12]
Guy Adami
Great show.
- [45:13]
Joe Lavornia
This is.
- [45:13]
Steve Grasso
I mean, come on.
- [45:14]
Guy Adami
This is a Hershey company. I mean, do you have a final train station? You know what?
- [45:17]
Tim Seymour
Yes. I believe there would be clips that.
- [45:19]
Guy Adami
Comes out to your left, Melissa.
- [45:21]
Melissa Lee
All right. Thank you for watching Fast Money. Merry Christmas.
- [45:22]
Tim Seymour
Merry Christmas.
- [45:23]
Melissa Lee
Celebrate Fast Money. Right now.
- [45:29]
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- [46:09]
Tim Seymour
Doing in a meeting? That could have been an email. That's right, you're losing interest. Don't let it happen to your money, too. Vanguard's CashPlus account can't help you at work, but we can help with your savings because Vanguard believes in giving you more. So how much interest could you earn? Find out@vanguard.com cashplus offered by Vanguard Marketing.
- [46:36]
Capella University Announcer
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