Stocks Drop As AI Trade Loses Steam… And A Cash Strapped Consumer 11/6/25

Summary

Podcast Summary: CNBC's "Fast Money"
Episode Title: Stocks Drop As AI Trade Loses Steam… And A Cash Strapped Consumer
Air Date: November 6, 2025
Host: Melissa Lee
Panel: Tim Seymour, Karen Finerman, Courtney Garcia, Guy Adami, Dan Nathan, with reporting and expert input from Steve Liesman, Phil LeBeau, and Gene Munster

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Main Theme & Purpose

This episode dives deep into the day’s sharp stock market sell-off, questioning whether the cooling of the AI-driven trade signals a short-term breather or the onset of more systemic trouble. The panel explores mounting warnings in the labor market, the pressures on the American consumer, the AI and hyperscaler debt explosion, and significant moves in major names like Tesla and Affirm. They discuss macro and microeconomic data, dissect notable corporate developments, and debate what portfolio moves make sense in this volatile environment.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Sell-Off and AI Trade Weakness

• Backdrop:
  • S&P fell more than 1%, Dow down nearly 400 points, NASDAQ down 2% – worst week since April (01:05–02:55).
  • Tech leaders (Nvidia, Microsoft, Palantir, Broadcom, AMD) responsible for major drag, cutting over 415 points from the index this week.
• Labor Market Jitters:
  • October Challenger layoffs surged 175% YoY—highest since the financial crisis.
• Panel's Take:
  • Dan Nathan [02:55]: “Good news, bad price action suggests maybe there is more to come.”
  • Karen Finerman [03:43]: The VIX is in “no man’s land” and hasn’t peaked; more turbulence possible.
  • Guy Adami [04:11]: "Have we got a growth scare?" White-collar job losses worrying.
  • Tim Seymour [05:14]: “Things were overextended... Seeing some sort of a pullback here... is actually pretty normal.”
  • Karen Finerman [06:56]: “I am always net long… but this is not enough of a dip to buy the dip. This is like a wiggle.”
  • Dan Nathan [06:32]: “Feels like the VIX is headed to 25. … At some point, [buying the dip] is going to cease and desist and maybe this is the time.”
• Themes:
  • Momentum exhaustion, investors shifting to safety (treasuries), concern over frothy valuations, and lack of new positive catalysts.

2. Labor Data & Consumer Concerns

• Discussion of layoffs being especially severe in middle/upper-middle class jobs and direct correlation with weakened consumer names (mortgage, lending, buy-now-pay-later) (04:11).
• Bond market remains resilient, but consumer-driven businesses under pressure.

3. Hyperscaler Debt Explosion & “Fine Print”

• Big cloud/AI players (Meta, Oracle) issued $75+ billion in debt since September; spreads over Treasuries widening (10:19–13:12).
• Karen Finerman [11:52]: “Apple… is practically a US government credit.”
• Expert Guest, Chris White (BondClick CEO) [13:57]:
  • “Investors are getting a really good deal.”
  • “Tech companies using their money to actually [fund] the next arms race around AI… for lenders, there is so much optimism.”
• Risks: Flood of new supply pushes yields higher, but issuers (esp. Meta, Google) still have strong balance sheets.

4. Tesla's $1 Trillion Pay Package for Elon Musk

• Over 75% of shareholders approved Musk’s historic incentive package; Tesla shares up fractionally afterhours (21:25).
• Phil LeBeau [21:53]: Elon Musk says,

  “With humanoid robots, you can actually give everyone amazing medical care.” [22:36]

• Future depends on hitting sky-high production targets—8.5T market cap, 20M vehicles, 1M robotaxis and robots.
• Panel skepticism:
  • Gene Munster [25:26]: “[The vote] speaks to institutional investors’ commitment to Elon's vision. … The stock continues to hang in there and go higher. … Overwhelming support makes it hard for this stock to go down.”
  • Questioning practicality of targets and if Tesla is valued based on “futuristic” expectations rather than fundamentals.

5. Earnings Alerts: Affirm and Others

• Affirm: Shares spike 11% AH; reported 42% jump in transaction volume, new 5-year deal with Amazon, strong demand for 0% loans, solid credit quality.

  • Karen Finerman [34:17]: “The quarter was excellent… I think it was overdone to the downside. I’m not surprised. I think we’ll see up revisions tomorrow.”

• Other Companies: Airbnb beat on top line; Block and DraftKings fell after missed expectations; Expedia up on strong revenue and guidance; CarMax and Tapestry both tanked on weak outlooks or missed expectations, with CarMax CEO stepping down (43:24).

6. Widening Social & Economic Inequality

• New Bank of America data: wage growth for lower income (<$30K) lagging badly behind higher income; largest gap ever recorded (36:34).
• Surging delinquencies (auto loans, student loans) and weaker “fast food” and discount retailer traffic by lower income consumers.
  • Dan Nathan [39:02]: “The chasm between the have and have-nots continues to grow, which is why companies like Walmart continue to win.”
  • Guy Adami [40:29]: “Discretionary names, especially mid to upper-middle class apparel/athleisure, could still break lower.”
• Fed rate cuts could help at the margins, but panel is skeptical on real relief for lower income Americans [41:44].

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Dan Nathan [02:55]: “Bitcoin’s been underperforming now for the last three weeks at least. … Good news, bad price action suggests maybe there is more to come.”
• Karen Finerman [03:43]: “The VIX… still very much in no man’s land. … If anything I would think that we go higher from here.”
• Tim Seymour [05:14]: “The S&P500 was like 13% above its 200 day moving average. … Things were overextended.”
• Chris White [13:57]: “The balance sheets of these companies… is pristine and but they're having to offer debt at higher yields because there’s so much supply coming to the market at the same time.”
• Steve Liesman [36:34]: “Wages for higher income Americans rising by 3.7%... just 1% for lower income Americans. It was the largest gap… ever recorded.”
• Dan Nathan [39:02]: “The stock market cares nothing about this [consumer pain]. But that chasm between the have and have Nots continues to grow…”
• Phil LeBeau relaying Musk [22:36]: “With humanoid robots, you can actually give everyone amazing medical care.”
• Gene Munster [25:26]: “Overwhelming support makes it hard for this stock [Tesla] to go down.”
• Karen Finerman [06:56]: “I am always net long… but this is not enough of a dip to buy the dip. This is like a wiggle.”

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Important Timestamps

• 01:05: Episode opens; Market sell-off and context
• 02:55: Panel’s market reaction & discussion on breadth of the downturn
• 05:14: Tim Seymour: Overextension and pullback in AI/mag 7 names
• 06:56: Dip-buying debate: This isn't a real dip
• 10:19–13:12: Hyperscaler debt, spreads, Apple credit vs. others
• 13:57–18:33: BondClick CEO on record global issuance, Meta/Google debt, bond vs. equity risk
• 21:25: Tesla vote result and details
• 22:36: Phil LeBeau relays Elon Musk’s vision for humanoid robots
• 25:26: Gene Munster: Investor faith and implications of the Musk pay package
• 33:00–34:17: Affirm’s strong quarter highlights and panel reaction
• 36:34: Steve Liesman: Bank of America wage gap data, economic bifurcation
• 39:02: Dan Nathan: “Stock market cares nothing about this” – Inequality theme
• 43:24: Corporate earnings: Tapestry, CarMax, Doordash, ELF Beauty recap

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Episode Structure

1. Market Sell-Off & AI Bubble Concerns:
Immediate framing of day’s losses; discussion anchors on whether momentum and AI favorites are resetting or if there’s a deeper, macro-driven risk emerging.

2. Layoffs, Labor Market Jitters, Consumer Health:
Challenger job cut data, how layoffs may be impacting the broader consumer—especially white-collar and mid/upper income sectors.

3. Hyperscaler Debt & Macro-Credit Markets:
Exploring the implications of massive new borrowing by major tech/AI players; what this means for bonds, spreads, and how traditional blue chips like Apple are comparatively safer.

4. Tesla’s Mega Pay Package:
Ongoing narrative of Musk, securing his retention, the role of robotics and dreams of trillion-dollar value; healthy debate around realism and investing for the future.

5. Corporate Earnings Spotlights:
Reaction to strong Affirm report and notable after-hours moves in prominent names, highlighting both positive developments and where market has punished misses.

6. Economic Inequality & Consumer Confidence:
Hard data on income/perceptions, rising delinquencies, and visible impacts in the retail and restaurant space; skepticism about near-term relief.

7. Closing Stocks Discussion:
Lightning round on beaten-down retail and consumer names (Tapestry, CarMax), with perspectives on whether the sell-offs or outperformance have more room to run.

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Takeaways for Investors

• The market is confronting the limits of overextended valuations, especially in tech, despite robust earnings.
• Labor market cracks and consumer bifurcation are real, but not yet threatening to the broader economy—or the stock market’s appetite for risk.
• Tech/AI companies are rapidly raising capital, leading to unusual opportunities for bond investors, but the flood of new issuance may push yields higher.
• Tesla remains a valuation enigma, propped up by visionary promises rather than near-term fundamentals.
• The consumer is under strain, particularly in lower income demographics, and this could eventually act as a drag on discretionary stocks.
• Buying the dip has worked, but the panel sees increasing risk that this time might be different—volatility may rise, and patience could be tested.

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For further details, visit: Fast Money at CNBC.com

Transcript

[Tim Seymour]

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[Melissa Lee]

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[Melissa Lee]

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[Karen Finerman]

Live from the Nasdaq markets in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Stocks dropping as the trade loses steam and the major indices pushing up against some key support levels. Is this just the momentum names taking a breather or a sign of deeper troubles and consumer concerns? Mounting layoffs and rising prices? Just some of the factors having big swaths of the population feeling left behind. We'll dig into the numbers and whether there's an any relief in sight. Plus a potential trillion dollar payday for Elon Musk. Feiderman's fine print on the recently issued hyperscaler debt and thousands of flights a day set to be grounded starting tomorrow. The impact on airlines, what it means for travel as the holiday season draws near. I'm Melissa Lee, come to you live from studio. Be at the NASDAQ on the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Feinerman, Courtney Garcia and Gaia Dami. We start off with stocks back in sell off mode. A scrutiny on valuations and Capex plans come back into focus. The S and P down more than a percent while the dow shed nearly 400 points while tech led the losses once again today, the Nasdaq off by nearly 2%. The Nasdaq 100 is now down almost 3% since Monday, pacing for its worst week since early April. Among the biggest drags are some of this year's highest flying stocks. The stocks Nvidia, Microsoft, Palantir, Broadcom, AMD responsible for cutting 415 points from the index this week. All of this amid renewed concerns over the health of the labor market. While we won't get a jobs report tomorrow, the Challenger layoffs for the month of October came in at more than 153,000 that is a 175% increase from last year and the highest reading for any October in 22 years. Worse than the pandemic. Around the same as the great financial crisis. So what should we make of the latest moves and is a steeper correction coming? It feels like these concerns have been bubbling and here we are with a sell off.

[Dan Nathan]

So the Fed made it clear in Jackson Hole that they were concerned about the labor market. Clearly these numbers suggest that was the right concern. The problem is this is some services number that we've got. The other day was hot, which leads me to believe that inflation is still a problem as well. So this sort of in a bit of a box here and what I've been noticing and we've been talking about, Bitcoin's been underperforming now for the last three weeks at least. And that is a risk on, risk off situation. I think the VIX has been trying to tell a story as well. And then some of the stock price action. You've seen Oracle fill that in that entire gap. If you go back and look and that's where we are now. If you look at Amazon potential for that technical setup that we talked about, that island reversal, that's lower and even Apple off that big quarter has reversed and lower. So now you're starting to see good news, bad price action which suggests maybe there is more to come.

[Karen Finerman]

Yeah, I agree. I thought that Oracle retail entirely is really important. That was big. And also I look like at the Vix, which is just under 20 now, still very much in no man's land, that doesn't make me think, oh, you know, the selling is over at all. If anything I would think that we go higher from here on the vix, meaning the market sells off more than lower. So I mean the huge run we've had that's they're just retracing part of it, there's still, there's still more to go, right?

[Guy Adami]

Yeah. There's no question that you suddenly go from a place where it's great to have Fed cuts, but do we have a growth scare and do we have a condition in the labor market that Mel, you've pointed out? I mean, you know, 20 years of October data tells you there's something possibly more afoot. Especially when we spent the last couple of weeks on this show talking about white collar job loss, kind of call it the middle to upper middle class job loss. And that's something that would be worrying the consumer. And if you look at the correlation in the markets today, we did See those companies that are exposed to consumer, consumer lending, buy now pay layer things that are related to mortgage servicing. Be especially under some pressure. We don't say here, I'm not saying the computers, excuse me, the consumers falling out of bed. I would say that you start to see some of this concern. Meanwhile you had a couple of Fed folks out there, Cleveland Fed out there saying they're more worried about inflation than they are job losses. So when you get at least a conflicting picture from a Fed that's not necessarily green light on, on, you know, more cuts, that creates just more tension in a, in a day that was.

[Tim Seymour]

Full of tension and coming into this week, the s and P500 was like 13% above its 200 day moving average. And if you looked at the Round Hill Magnificent Seven ETF, I mean that was trading around 33 times forward earnings. So things were overextended. So I think seeing some sort of a pullback here, I don't think is that unexpected. Especially when you're getting concerns about the labor market. People are saying, okay, is the economy slowing down? And the first thing you're going to be concerned about are those things that have valuations which everyone's trying to justify. And if you're in a slowing economy, can you justify those? So I don't know. This is the end of it. I think this pullback is actually pretty normal. I think you could continue to continue to see this run, but it's just had such a run so far, that's what you're seeing. And now people are taking their profits, they're adding to things like treasuries. It's the safety trade we are seeing today.

[Karen Finerman]

We have seen though time and time again a propensity of the investor to buy the dip guy.

[Guy Adami]

Propensity.

[Karen Finerman]

Propensity.

[Guy Adami]

It's great.

[Karen Finerman]

I'm wondering, you know, if you, if, if somebody is watching out there, would you agree and say, yes, I have to.

[Dan Nathan]

I have to agree because that's been.

[Karen Finerman]

The right thing to do every time.

[Dan Nathan]

I've said it's different.

[Karen Finerman]

Maybe this week.

[Dan Nathan]

Yes, it's brewing.

[Guy Adami]

Maybe.

[Dan Nathan]

And until, until it's proven to be that. I've been smoked so many times saying it feels like something's happening this time. You like that?

[Gene Munster]

Yes.

[Dan Nathan]

We used to say smoked like a Tiparillo.

[Karen Finerman]

What's a tiparillo?

[Steve Liesman]

That's it.

[Dan Nathan]

That's awful.

[Guy Adami]

Awful dime store cigar that apparently guy and his buddy smoked growing up.

[Dan Nathan]

That's all we could afford, Tim. We didn't live in cigars, so we can get those Cuban cigars, whatever. With that said, to me it does feel, it feels like the VIX is headed to 25. It feels like there's another sort of wave to the downside. And I know people have been rewarded for buying the dip and they feel bulletproof, but at some point that is going to cease and desist and maybe this is the time that it does.

[Karen Finerman]

So just so I'm clear, I'm always long. So even though I talk about I think the VIX going higher, I am long for sure. I do like to buy the dip. This to me is not enough of a dip to be a dip. This is like a wiggle you. So one of the things I look to the Vix, the high 20s, maybe even much higher than that. So, you know, we saw it a couple of times. Liberation Day was really out there. But we saw it, you know, last year with Japan. I think we could go much, much higher in the vix. And then I would look to start, I have some collars on. I would look to take them off. I took part of my metal collar off too early. So I have more to do there. I want to wait. But just so I'm clear, I am always net long.

[Guy Adami]

The center of the storm to me just feels like the froth. And because I'm not ready to say that a lot of the big themes we've had for the market are over. I just think guys brought this up all the time. Your buddy rags, that's forgetting by the way, for, for Yankee fans, you know, goes from 55 to 35 in a blink. So again, quantum stocks, anything related to the digital economy, it's all on some level multiples of the bitcoin move. So bitcoin, which trades down almost 20% from, from the high, the recent high, you get beta from there. I mean even a theorem down about 35% to Bitcoin's 20. And you see these relationships, especially in the places that actually not only were they frothy, but you started to see some leverage into certain parts of the market. We saw this even with gold on some of that sell off. So I think that's where you get. There's nothing about this that isn't healthy. If you don't think that the labor market's not falling apart. I like, I'm not ready to call the job market dead. I know it's even more difficult and it probably heightens volatility when we have no real data. And suddenly, you know, the challenger data becomes the, the most important piece of Data that we've had in a long time. And, and it is important. Companies have been cautious and this has been at least a period where we're pretty clear they're not hiring. We just don't know that. The job market falling apart.

[Karen Finerman]

We have no data and we're mostly through earnings season except we are getting another key earnings report and that would be Nvidia coming out on the 20th or 19th, I believe it's a couple weeks.

[Dan Nathan]

You can at me if I'm wrong.

[Karen Finerman]

But will this save the trade? It seems like there's a lot at stake for, for this particular earnings report given sentiment around the sector.

[Tim Seymour]

Yeah, I mean markets are definitely going.

[Karen Finerman]

To be focused on this.

[Tim Seymour]

But I do think the good news is coming into this, coming into this right now, when you look at earnings, about 80% of companies actually beat an expectations and there's another like 14% of companies actually raised their guidance. So I think generally speaking, when we look at the economy, it's done really well. And I don't think the entire economy is dependent on Nvidia, but the AI trade might be. And I think that is something we obviously have to watch.

[Karen Finerman]

I mean, in some respects the entire economy might be reliant on the.

Well, I mean just from market driving the economy.

[Dan Nathan]

Dan last night said we talked about caterpillars and trade and he said that's very 2000. You're a fan of the Hamlet. Did you take that in college?

[Melissa Lee]

Which?

[Dan Nathan]

The Hamlet.

[Karen Finerman]

The Hamlet. Oh, you mean Hamlet. Yes.

[Dan Nathan]

And you know, the lady doth protest too much, me thinks which is sort of backwards. But my point is Jensen's been doing a lot of talking over the last couple of weeks. And when you hear a CEO talking as much as he is about the things that he's talking about the potential for, you know, we got to get ourselves involved in China. And all these different things leads me to believe now that maybe the bloom could be starting to come off the roads a little bit and maybe people start looking at that price to sales that we've talked about.

[Karen Finerman]

Well, as this doubt has been brewing about the hyperscalers, they have been rushing to the bond market to help fund their ambitions. The amount raised by companies like Matt and Oracle ballooned to more than $75 billion. That's just since September. The chairwoman has been watching this trend. She's got the fine print as she does.

Fine print. I want to thank Andy Katzen at Damp Spring putting this together. So this is some hyperscalers, how their spreads have moved, which is A sign of how comfortable the market is and what, what you're looking at here is so each of the hyperscalers here you can see they have debt issued over various maturities and you can see from the left side how much the spreads have widened. That's over Treasuries. So it's getting more and more expensive. This is just in the last month how much they've moved for all of this borrowing. So there's a couple things and likely very much more to come. I would think spreads widen even more. Just the sheer amount of debt coming to market, that's one thing. And then the other part of it is the sort of creeping fear of okay what the promise of, of the returns here. So just the credit, you know, is this a good, is this a good investment? And maybe borrowers are going to say rather bond buyers are going to say you got to pay me more to make it worth it. Just Tim, one other thing I wanted to show.

[Guy Adami]

Yes.

[Karen Finerman]

Your Apple.

[Gene Munster]

Yes.

[Karen Finerman]

Which you have been right on.

[Guy Adami]

Let's look at their zinger.

[Karen Finerman]

No, I'm not allowed to hit you with the zinger. They've sat it out and we look at their spread. It is nearly identical.

It hasn't moved.

I mean it's practically a US government credit. Right. So that's nice for you, for the other people to get more expensive. You hate to get into that vicious cycle of needing to be more and.

More and in theory there's going to be more, I mean there's going to be more bond issuance. I mean I would imagine, imagine if you think that Meta is going to increase their capex by significant amounts next year then that's another reason why you might think there will be more supply coming to market.

[Guy Adami]

And yet these. So it's a great point by Karen and we have talked about the element of Oracle is the most obvious place of where there's significant capacity to build out. But we know how the market responded to, to face matter comments about what they were doing on capex. I just think it's, it's, we have the companies with the most free cash flow in the market, the companies with the most pristine balance sheets and this is a case where really at this point it's more about the concept of how they're going to be funding and how much build out there has to be back to Apple. One of the reasons why investors have owned Apple for five years and one of the reasons why going back to the capital market side, the debt side, they were doing some really smart stuff back when rates were near zero and they were essentially buying back stocks, selling debt, it was a virtuous cycle of basically better return on investment and good for Apple. But you're right, it trades differently.

[Karen Finerman]

Just one more thing. There was that Sarah fryer comment about OpenAI and wouldn't it, you know, that would be nice if they got a government backstop? Well, sure, I think she's walked that back, but who knows how much debt that will be, right? Right. We haven't, you know, a lot more to come there.

For more on the hyperscaler debt explosion, let's bring in BondClick CEO Chris White and we by explosion we mean just the amount of issuance. Not that anything bad has happened. Chris, great to have you with us. Just wanted to be clear on that. How do you interpret the widening spreads that we've seen recently? Is it, is it fears about how this money is being spent, fears about the companies themselves, or is it the anticipation that there's going to be so much more supply hitting the market?

[Steve Liesman]

Well, first of all, I think it's building into a broader trend. We're seeing global bond issuance breaking all records previously seen before. I think we're approaching the $6 trillion number for global bond issuance. So this is really in keeping with the trend for 2025. However, you know, I think the widening spreads, this is the rare opportunity where investors are getting a really good deal. As one of your commentators said before, the balance sheets of these companies that are issuing debt is pristine and but they're having to offer debt at higher yields because there's so much supply coming to the market at the same time. So I look at this as actually a really good thing for investors. The other thing, a lot of times we're seeing tech companies raise money to buy back their, their equity in the marketplace. But this is really tech companies using their money to actually the next arms race around AI which I think for lenders is something that they're feeling pretty positive about because there is so much optimism around the space bond market has.

[Dan Nathan]

Been resilient as can be. I would have thought with the government shutdown now at record, record amount in terms of duration, there would have been some hiccup. You seeing anything around the edges in the bond market that's concerning?

[Steve Liesman]

Not really. I mean you would normally see a contagion start to happen in high yield markets if you're going to see markets break down. But we've seen record high yield deals as well and they're also, you know, associated with this sort of Quest for, for power and more sort of data services. We just saw a deal brought to market by Morgan Stanley, was oversubscribed by about four times where they're bringing a $3 billion high yield deal to market for a cryptocurrency firm. So we're just seeing a lot of strength in the bond market. There's a lot of cash on the sidelines that's coming in. I think really what it has to do is maybe as rates are being cut, people fear that they won't get this yield opportunity so they're jumping in on these deals, especially for the investment grade deals for tech companies which obviously, you know, have balance sheets with cash on them and a lot of optimism around their future.

[Karen Finerman]

Chris, it's Karen, thanks for being on. Let me just play devil's advocate a little bit. And I am a Metta holder, so Metta, which used to have an absolutely pristine balance sheet, tons of cash, is now a net debtor. So I know the profile of these companies is great and they can turn on the cash flow when they want if they were turned off the capex. But that doesn't seem to be the strategy right now. So do you think the bond. So you don't think they're going to have to pay more if they do further issuances?

[Steve Liesman]

No, they will, but I don't think that it's as dire as them having to pay more because people are running away from the credit. I mean, what we've seen from Meta is what they've issued in the last 90 days is about 40% of their total outstanding debt to date. So they've certainly been super aggressive and I think they need to be mindful of what future market conditions will be. But like digging into for example, Google, Google's issued more than half of their outstanding debt in the past 90 days, but they don't really have any debt coming due until about the five to seven year maturity period. So they do have some time to get their act together. I think what, what a lot of people are doing are just making a bet that the AI is going to be a boon. But you're obviously going to have to have the infrastructure in place and obviously the power to drive. So this is something where I think they're investing in the future and if you're, if you're a better stockholder, you might see some gyrations. But if you're a Meta debt holder, I couldn't pay off its debt is something that would indicate a much, much bigger problem than Meta, maybe just over borrowing in the short term.

[Karen Finerman]

Chris, great to speak with you. Thank you.

[Steve Liesman]

Thanks for having me on.

[Karen Finerman]

White. So it's an interesting idea here in terms of the volatility of the stock versus the bond here. And so we'll go to you.

[Guy Adami]

Well, first of all, we, we had a day in the treasury market today, so just talking about at least what everything is priced off of you, the biggest rally in the 10 year in almost a month. And yet we've been grinding lower. If you look at this move lower on yields, it's been a downtrend and it's been running up against the high end of the trend. It's sector by sector credit matters. And certainly we've been in a place where there's been a voracious appetite for credit. There's also been a dynamic where there's been a lot of money out there raised to, to fill the gap where a lot of the traditional banks have not. So I don't think there are problems right now in the companies we're talking about. I think it's more the parts of the first five, ten minutes of today's show was more about where there are credit issues in the consumer that, you know, clearly are out there. It doesn't mean that they're bubbling up today.

[Karen Finerman]

Quickly, are you looking at the debt.

Here of the debt of Metta?

Yeah.

To buy?

Yeah. Yeah.

No, I'm definitely, to me, the risk reward on the equity side. But one thing that's sort of interesting that's out there, though, is the tariff situation we saw briefly yesterday when the arguments seem to be against the Trump administration yield spike. And if that were to actually come to pass, you got to think yields are going to go much higher, at least in the short term, after all.

Right, we've got some breaking news of potential data breach at the Congressional Budget Office. Emily Wilkins got the details. Emily? Hey, Melissa.

[Tim Seymour]

Well, yes, lawmakers were informed that the Congressional Budget Office has had a security incident. Washington Post going a step further and reporting that they were hacked by foreign actors. The Congressional Budget Office did confirm to CNBC in a statement that they have identified a security incident, have taken immediate action to contain it and have implemented additional monitoring and new security controls to further protect the agency's systems. Going forward, they say the incident is being investigated. In the meanwhile, lawmakers have been told lawmakers and their staffers to be extra cautious from any sort of communications. Again, Congressional Budget Office, you heard about it a lot when Trump did the mega bill, but they are really sort of the key research arm. They have a lot of data, a lot of financial data, a lot of economic data. And remains to be seen exactly how far this breach went and what, if any, information might have been compromised.

[Karen Finerman]

Melissa, Emily, thank you. Emily Wilkins. Coming up, the earnings keep rolling in details and numbers behind the after hours moves in a firm, Airbnb and Block. That's ahead. But first, pay shareholders voting for what could be a historic payday for Tesla CEO Elon Musk. The impact on the stock and the next move for the company. Fast money's back in two.

[Melissa Lee]

Our state has changed a lot in the last 140 years. We know because Multicare has been here guided by a single purpose, making our communities healthier. That comes from making courageous decisions, partnering with local communities to grow programs and services, and expanding healthcare access to those who need it most. Together, we're building a healthier future. Learn more at multicare.org@capella university. Learning the right skills could make a difference. That's why our business programs teach you relevant skills you can take from the course room to the workplace. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at capella.edu CNBC's Changemakers 2026 list spotlighting women who innovate, lead boldly and are transforming business. Do you know someone who is rewriting the future? Nominate them [e-mail] changemakers.

[Karen Finerman]

Welcome back to Fast Money. Over 75% of Tesla shareholders approving CEO Elon Musk' $1 trillion pay package late in the last hour. The stock is up just fractionally right now, half a percent or so. But to get the full pay day, Musk has to achieve some pretty big targets, raising Tesla's market cap to 8.5 trillion, delivering 20 million vehicles and deploying 1 million robotaxis and 1 million humanoid robots. Our Phil LeBeau joins us now with the very latest. He was just speaking at this annual.

[Phil LeBeau]

Meeting, Phil, and he's still talking, Melissa. He's talking about his goals for Tesla and his plans, including the start of cybercap production in April of next year. But so much of the future. And Elon Musk has spent most of the time since they announced the results of the pay package. He spent most of his time talking about how the Optimus robot, autonomous and robotics are really the future for growth for Tesla. In fact, he has a couple of Optimus robot prototypes on stage with him. And as he talks about the future, here's what he said he believes is possible with a future with millions of Optimus robots in production.

[Steve Liesman]

You know, people often talk about, like, eliminating poverty, giving everyone amazing medical care. Well, there's actually only one way to do that, and that's with the Optimus robot. With humanoid robots, you can actually give everyone amazing medical care.

[Phil LeBeau]

Not sure how we're going to get to that point, but that's what Elon Musk is talking about today at the Tesla shareholder meeting in Austin, Texas. One last note, Melissa. In terms of Optimus production, he talked about the fact that they are working on putting in a production line in Fremont for a run rate of 1 million Optimus robots, and then eventually building a production line in Austin for a run rate of. Of 10 million Optimus robots. We've said it before, we'll say it again. He is going all in. When it comes to robotics, autonomous and artificial intelligence in the eyes of Elon Musk, that's where the growth for Tesla will be in the future. Now we'll see if he can start to hit some of those pay metrics that are laid out for him.

[Karen Finerman]

Yeah, that's certainly where a lot of the market cap is currently tied to, you know, the futuristic kind of stuff. Phil, right now, the Optimus robot, what can it do? Because there was one outside the NASDAQ when Robin Denholm was. Was on Squawkbox and it was kind of barely handing out, like, candies, I think it was, or dummy bears.

[Phil LeBeau]

That's the challenge right there, Melissa Grass. That's the challenge. Well, it's the hands. Look, if you're going to have a humanoid robot to truly be functional, to truly make a difference in this world, it has to function as a human would function. And look, are there robots in existence in factories, in warehouses, in manufacturing plants all over the world? There are millions of them. But if you were talking about a humanoid robot where it can pick something up and move something around and has the dexterity of the fingers and the hands, that's the key. Elon Musk has talked about it. That is the key. It's not an easy challenge. He's admitted that that is going to be the biggest hurdle to overcome. So as of right now, they're walking around at the company's facilities up in Palo Alto, at the offices there. But what are they actually doing? That's where the artificial intelligence comes in. That's where the design of those features that make it truly human like, will have to kick in. And we'll see how this develops.

[Karen Finerman]

Yep, Phil. Thank you, Phil LeBeau. That's good. War on Musk's potentially massive payday with fast money Friend Gene Munster, he's a managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management. I don't know if you thought this was a sure thing, Gene, but I mean, to have some notable investors like the Norwegian Sovereign wealth Fund vote against, you know, turn this sort of into a nail biter. What does this mean? What sort of path is now cleared for, for Tesla now knowing that Elon Musk will in fact stay?

[Gene Munster]

Well, like you said, it was not a foregone conclusion that the vote was going to go in his direction. I was surprised, very surprised at that 75% of support that he's had. So clearly investors are on his side here. And I think there are two important pieces to that. One, of course, is that it keeps Elon happy. The reason why he's happy is if he wants to build, as he describes it, this army of robots, he wants to be in control of the company. Now basically there's no risk that he gets pushed out. So that was one piece. But there's something else that is important related to that 75% agreement around this pay package. It speaks to the institutional investors commitment. We know the retail had it, but the institutional commitment to Elon's vision and what Phil talked about was exactly right. He's anchoring this in kind of the future of AI and robotics and Optimus. But why that's important is that I feel like every quarter there's some disappointment on the fundamentals, some numbers going down in the future, and yet the stock continues to hang in there and go higher. And part of that is because there's investor support for his vision. And I think that was probably my biggest takeaway so far on the event today is just that kind of overwhelming support that he does have that's going to make it hard for this stock to go down.

[Karen Finerman]

Gene, it's Karen. Thanks for being on. One thing. I was wondering if he needs to deliver a million robots and let's say at scale it's $35,000 each, he could literally just pay $35 billion to meet that threshold, which is only part, but a big part of, of the trillion dollar package.

[Gene Munster]

Well, I mean there would be some auditing, there was, there was some expectations around him hitting some vehicle targets in his first pay package. And there was talk about Larry Ellison secretly buying tens of thousands of Teslas so he could hit that target. And that didn't happen. I think that they would figure that out. I mean, conceptually that's possible, but I would be surprised if something like that would happen. And the other piece too is like that Trillion dollar package. I mean this is a bingo card with 24 squares on it and it's incremental. And so that I think is the hardest of the hurdles. The million optimists in a year, I think that that's the hardest of all those. But they have to get to him really paid out. He's got to get an $8.5 trillion market cap. And so I think that this is in the best interest of shareholders. It's a big number, but it's a really high bar for him to hit. Just to put some quick numbers into perspective to Phil Talked about that 10 million run rate, the 10 million production rate of Austin doing Optimus. You know, who knows when they're going to get there. But if you assume a $30,000, it's a $300 billion business, they're just over $100 billion expected for next year. And so you get some like a sense about how he thinks about the weighting of the revenue longer term.

[Karen Finerman]

Gene, we want to pull up a chart of intel because the stock is, is higher. Elon Musk saying that while they don't have any deals with intel right now, it may be worth talking to them. So the Stock is up 3%. I don't know. In your view, is there a deal to be made between Tesla and Intel? Unless it's just a sheer investment in intel versus a partnership, for instance.

[Gene Munster]

Yeah, that's a head scratcher for me, especially after what happened with intel and Nvidia and I think Nvidia kind of helping essentially prop up Intel. This is a few weeks ago and so basically it's what, what Musk needs is the most advanced GPUs. He's been clear in his conversations about Tesla and about Xai how important, I mean he's almost like he's, he's speaking to Jensen to make sure that they get the proper supply of the, the GPUs that they want. When it comes to intel, it's just such a light year gap in terms of the technology between what they're offering and I just struggle in terms of what Intel's really going to bring to the table. That's going to help Tesla.

[Karen Finerman]

Yep. Gene, thanks. Good to see you. Thank you. Munster. Again, intel shares are up approaching 4% at this point. Courtney, I don't know if you want to trade Tesla or Intel. The intel stuff's interesting because in terms of speaking to Jensen Huang, if he's trying to get GPUs, it does seem like, okay, well, let's help out intel or if he's trying to curry favor with the administration, that's also. Maybe we should make a deal with Intel.

[Tim Seymour]

Yeah, and I think we're going to want to see. I mean, clearly they need the capacity there, so who are they going to go to meet that? But I think when you're looking at Tesla, I mean, investors who own Tesla are owning it for all of the future things that they can provide. Like, I mean, if you're, if you're 250 times almost forward earnings, that's not for a car company, even though that's really where they make all their sales right now. But I do think that is something to watch with Tesla, is it is their car sales that will fund all of these future opportunities. And they may, depending on where vehicle sales come in this year, have two years of declining sales. So I think what we have to watch there is what are you paying up for and how are they able to meet these expectations? So I think the fact that this vote passed set a really high bar and I think investors are optimistic he can meet that and they're just putting their faith in Elon Musk. So the valuation has always been my, like nonstarter here, kind of. But I think that that's not why.

[Karen Finerman]

You own this as an intel shareholder. Yeah.

[Guy Adami]

I mean, I don't do much with this headline. I'm trying to understand really even where intel fits in. I think intel absolutely is the endorsed play for many people that want to be usa, and we've said that all along and back to Tesla. I mean, Elon's had this company and this board who he controls and he's had shareholders on his side. And, you know, Jean talked about the institutional backing, but the bottom line is it's kind of this extortion. Let me choose my words differently. I'll say it's a kick. Well, you have no choice. If you want me to do my best stuff inside a Tesla, give me this pay package or I'm going to do it someplace else. And this goes on in many companies with entrepreneurs. You want them focused, you want them bringing their best ideas inside of your structure. So of course you're going to vote for it. By the way, I mean, as someone that doesn't like the valuation either, if you really believe that Elon's best kind of AI, outside of X AI and kind of future futuristic idea flow is going through Tesla now, on top of the things we've already given it credit for, it's attractive to buying the stock.

[Karen Finerman]

Coming up all the after hours Action the details and numbers behind a firm Airbnb and blocks Latest quarters ahead. You're watching Fast MONEY live from the NASDAQ Marketsite in Times Square. Back right after this.

[Melissa Lee]

Is it time to reimagine your future? The right business skills may make a difference in your career. At Capella University, we offer a relevant education that's designed to focus on what you need to know in the business world. We'll teach professional skills to help you pursue your goals like business management, strategic planning and effective communication, and you can apply these skills right away. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at capella.edu CNBC's Changemakers 2026 list spotlighting women who innovate, lead boldly and are transforming business. Do you know someone who is rewriting the future? Nominate them [e-mail] changemakers shares.

[Karen Finerman]

Welcome back to Fast Money and Earnings Alert. On the firm shares of the buy now, pay later company spiking 11% after hours. The company delivering earnings and revenues that exceeded Wall street estimates. The conference call is underway. CNBC's Mackenzie Sagalis got the latest Mac.

[Tim Seymour]

Hey Mel. So firm shares are rallying after hours as transaction volume jumped 42% in the quarter. CEO Max Levchin opened the earnings call though by pointing to their new five year deal with Amazon and as a major win, indeed, a key moment in the same quarter that a firm officially transitioned off of Walmart. CFO Rob o' Hare told me that they are seeing no signs of slowdown. The business is scaling cleanly post Wal Mart with strong demand for zero percent loans, now a firm's fastest growing product, as well as stable credit performance and an expanded Shopify partnership. Live in the uk the quarter was strong across the board. Earnings more than doubled street expectations. It was a revenue beat and transaction volume hit a new high despite limited seasonal lift. Now a firm has also been pushing hard at the point of sale with card volume up 135% year over year and active users now reaching 2.8 million. And Mel will hear more from Max Levchin when he joins Walk on the street tomorrow morning at 9:15.

[Karen Finerman]

All right Mac, thanks Mackenzie Zagallos. Karen, you're looking at the quarter.

Yes, I thought the quarter was excellent. There was a lot to like she hit on a lot of the high points. I mean revenue was up and spending up and but also credit quality was fine. And so this stock has come in. They had a blowout quarter. They've had a couple of really good quarters and I think you know, everyone here is buy now, pay later. A lot of what they do is 0% loans every two weeks you pay off over four payments. Paid, right, that's it. But then they also of course have the more traditional kind of loans. But I think this is, I think it was overdone to the downside. I'm not surprised. I think we'll see up revisions tomorrow.

Coming up, a lack of data and a lack of cash and a historic vote all have us wondering how much consumers are feeling left behind. What it means for the economy when fast Money returns. Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks dropping as valuation fears swept over Wall Street. The dow falling nearly 400 points. The S&P down more than a percent. And the NASDAQ leading losses shedding nearly 2%. Some more after hours action. Airbnb posting a revenue beat block and draftkings both falling after missing expectations on the top and the bottom lines take two dropping after further delaying the release of Grand Theft Auto 6. Expedia topping EPS and revenue estimates. The company also hiking guidance for Q4 revenue and full year gross bookings. MP Materials posting a better than expected adjusted loss in revenue just shy of estimates. Wind Resorts earnings missing expectations, but revenues beat with strength in Macao, in Las Vegas. And supply software supply chain company J FR leaping after tapping estimates on the top and the bottom line. Yes, of course it is right.

[Guy Adami]

Or hopping.

[Karen Finerman]

Hopping. Meantime, the win of Democratic Socialist Zoran Mamdani in New York City's mayoral race in part seemed to signal a deep discontent with the economic climate. Now I want to preface this because we are not a political show, but we have to acknowledge that this happened and that there's a reason why this happened. With an overwhelming turnout of voters this election, couple this victory with surging job cuts and new data from bank of America showing a troubled trend in wage growth and growth and we're seeing signs of more strain on the consumer. CNBC senior economics reporter Steve Liesman has more on all of this. Steve?

[Steve Liesman]

Melissa bank of America for the first time released anonymous data that it averages up. And it's drawn from its tens of millions of bank accounts showing lower income wages lagging behind the wealthier and lagging behind inflation wages for higher income Americans rising by 3.7% in October, 2% for the middle income group, just 1% for lower income Americans. It was the largest gap that the bank of America Institute had ever recorded. Other data is backing up this divide. Yesterday, the New York Fed's household debt and credit report showed serious delinquency rates for younger age groups, that also corresponds with lower income groups surging this year, in part weighed down by the return of student loan payments. But other types of credit were also pressured. Our CNBC All America economic survey in October showing that lowering Americans see prices rising faster than their wealthier countrymen and are far more pessimistic about their wages rising in the next year. As a group, those making $30,000 or less have become much more pessimistic about the outlook for the economy than those making more than $100,000. You remember McDonald's reported recently that visits from lower income Americans had cratered compared with higher income visitors. So it's showing up in the economic data, it's showing up in the surveys, it's even showing up McDonald's. Not surprising, Melissa, to see it showing up in the voting booth.

[Karen Finerman]

The Fed of course has talked about this, Steve, but of course monetary policy is a blunt instrument. So is there any thought that, you know, a decrease in rates will actually help this part of the population?

[Steve Liesman]

Specifically it'll, it'll help some, especially those carrying credit card balance. It'll help those perhaps for first time homebuyers to reach in to get that first home, even though sometimes when the mortgage rate comes down, it just ends up increasing the housing price. But certainly some efforts to build a low income housing would be helpful for this group. And of course these tariffs, when you think about tariffs, they end up being since lower income Americans spend a larger share of their income on consumable goods, they're actually paying more as a percent than wealthier Americans when it comes to the tariffs.

[Karen Finerman]

Right. Steve, thank you. Good to see you. Steve Liesman and so our discussion about the consumer and the pressure there continues. We've heard it all throughout earnings season. Steve had some of the highlights when it comes to McDonald's. We also heard from Kroger, the lower the middle income consumer, they're using coupons more. Procter and Gamble even talked about the higher income consumer buying value packs more. So there's squeeze being felt from all sides.

[Dan Nathan]

This started a few years ago, by the way. I think it's a theme we've been talking about for a while, but it's seemingly growing every week. You see the data subprime auto delinquency rates for the first time in history, and history is a long time is north of 5%. Student loans Delinquency rates are going higher. It's all across the board. Now obviously the stock market cares nothing about this. But that chasm between the have and have Nots continues to grow, which is why companies like Walmart continue to win.

[Karen Finerman]

At some point though it will. I mean you can't have both sides feeling such pressure without a bleeding to the middle as well. And so in terms from the consumer standpoint here, I mean how do you think about this? How do you think about this is something that exists out there that's not seeing much relief in terms of all these pressures.

I come back to something Steve said, that lower income customer who has to buy things has been burdened with the tariff. And the irony of that, if we see the tariffs go away, they've been funding some payment of repayment of the deficit, which you would think that shouldn't be where the burden should lie. Right. So I don't know, will they be helped if the tariffs are gone? I feel like the administration has to do something to reinstate tariffs on some point. So I don't see any relief there. I don't see what the turnaround is here.

But can the stock market continue higher with this bifurcation and is there a belief that this bifurcation will continue and not bleed across all demographics?

[Guy Adami]

Again, I don't think we're close to pricing in any kind of a growth scare in this environment. So that ultimately is where you're going to end up. If we are have significant job loss and we think the consumer's under more pressure. I think the more interesting way to trade this and of course this is these are very unfortunate times for people who are under pressure from inflation and from lower kind of wage gains. But I think it's discretionary. I think it's some of the discretionary names that are still high, multiple names that have been go to names and I'm talking about middle to upper middle class names in apparel and in athleisure. And we've seen it and I think a lot of these charts are ready to break even lower.

[Karen Finerman]

Yeah.

[Tim Seymour]

And I really think that this is something that has been happening for a while. You're seeing that the lower income consumer is really constrained. When you look at the consumer as an aggregate, there hasn't been concerning issues from an economic standpoint that it's going to crater the economy. And I think that's why the stock markets haven't been watching this. But I don't think it's something not to watch. And I think this is why like when you're looking at the companies that do sell to the lower income are going to be affected very differently than like your high end retailers for example who are still getting the sales going through. But there has to be something that's happening. I mean this is happening more and more and it's becoming more and more more of a problem. So not enough that the overall economy is at risk. But you know, at some point something.

[Karen Finerman]

You'Ve got to watch.

[Tim Seymour]

Absolutely.

[Karen Finerman]

So you mentioned the Fed cutting rates and how that could alleviate some of the pressure from credit card debt. So it goes from like 20% to 18%. I mean that's not much of a relief.

I know. I feel like that pass through happens much more slowly than you would think. Right. And also it doesn't necessarily mean the 10 year moves in the right direction.

Exactly. Even there's much more fast swing right after this break. Stay tuned. Welcome back to FAST money. A slew of big moves, stock moves caught our eyes today. Let's start off with Tapestry shares dropping nearly 10% despite beating top and bottom gains. Bottom line gains. Investors seemingly disappointed with the company's outlook. Meantime, CarMax falling 24% after the car retailer gave a weak outlook for its current quarter. It also announced its CEO would be stepping down. Doordash had its worst day since going public five years ago after earnings last night. The company saying it plans to spend several hundred million dollars on new technology. And ELF Beauty dropping 35% after saying tariffs. Weighed on its latest results, Piper Sandler downgrading the stock to a neutral from overweight. And lastly, adjacent utility company Vistra seeing shares down 2 1/2% after it missed revenue estimates for the latest quarter. Courtney, which one do you want to trade?

[Tim Seymour]

So that Tapestry was actually pretty interesting here. I mean had quite a drop which it has done really well for the year. So I think seeing that to a certain extent isn't that unexpected expected. But a lot of this was just on their guidance, which I think them being cautious I don't think is that unexpected, especially with tariffs still being, you know, something to figure out there. But what I did really like is they had like 2.2 million new customers globally and of that 35% were Gen Z. So they're really getting into the younger consumer. So I actually think there was some positives there which that was kind of interesting.

[Karen Finerman]

Karen.

Well, I don't know if we mentioned this one, but Ralph Lauren which also put up very good numbers. I was going to Tapestry but that reminded me of that and it was trading up significantly higher and then end of the day lower. I think it was just, it's an expensive multiple for the space but they did everything right. I would be A little disheartened if I were the team there and put up that quarter and this is what I got. Sorry. Keep going. You're doing great.

Tim.

[Guy Adami]

I'll take Carmax for 400, Alex and I'll tell you what, this is a story where the outlook was so bad. CEO leaving. And this is a company that doesn't have a lot of wiggle room with a gross margin that's pretty tight. In other words, there's not. There's not a lot of fat in this business for with them to have an outlook like this. This is stock that's been cut more than in half year to date and it's a don't. It's a don't touch. It's certainly not one to go fishing on here.

[Karen Finerman]

Yeah, Truist is saying in its downgrade that Carvana. Sorry just lost the name of the Carvana was gaining material mind share over Carmax.

[Dan Nathan]

I'll go to Tapestry real quick for 500 and agree with Courtney and say, you know what? Kate's Spade and Stuart Weitzman are a drag. If they could eliminate that and rest the whole thing.

[Karen Finerman]

Do you like their designs?

[Guy Adami]

I thought you were a big Kate Spade fan.

[Karen Finerman]

Accessory has nothing to do with what.

[Dan Nathan]

I'm a fan of. I'm just talking. I do. I like Jimmy Choo as well. But it's got nothing to do with this conversation. I buy he likes you as well.

[Karen Finerman]

Lots of things don't have anything to do with conversation that we talk about. That's never stopped us before. Final trades, final trade time 10.

[Guy Adami]

This was kind of a fun show.

[Karen Finerman]

I don't know.

[Guy Adami]

Just good, good laugh. Today we have Tinto. I don't think that's. That's. Well, it's going to be fun too.

[Steve Liesman]

Sorry.

[Karen Finerman]

Karen.

[Tim Seymour]

Yes.

[Karen Finerman]

Happy anniversary to my husband.

[Dan Nathan]

There you go.

[Karen Finerman]

He's the luckiest guy in the world. That would be a Dan joke there for my final trait affirm. I really like that quarter.

[Tim Seymour]

Courtney Phillips, 60, sexing in the midstream refining space. Think this is something you want to take a look at.

[Dan Nathan]

And the Golub kids wish their mom and dad a happy anniversary. APA Corp.

[Karen Finerman]

Thanks for watching. Fast Mad Money starts right now.

[Melissa Lee]

All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer@ Capella University, learning the right skills could make a difference. That's why our business programs teach you relevant skills you can take from the course room to the workplace. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at Capella. Eduardo.