← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
Stocks Drop As Israel-Iran Conflict Worsens… And A Shadow Over Solar Stocks 6/17/25
00:43:45
Stocks dropping as the Israel-Iran conflict rages on, with President Trump weighing in as well. How the developments in the Middle East are impacting markets, and how oil, bonds, and the dollar are faring. Plus The sun setting on solar stocks, as the Senate’s tax bill changes hit the group hard. If those names can rise again, or if the shadow is here to stay. Fast Money Disclaimer
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Melissa Lee
Fidelity Trading Dashboard brings live data, news and charts into one screen because better trading starts with finding what you need fast. Available for free@fidelity.com trading dashboard. Investing involves risk, including risk of loss. Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC Member NYSE SIPC Are you still quoting 30 year old movies? Have you said cool beans in the past 90 days? Do you think Discover isn't widely accepted? If this sounds like you, you're stuck in the past does Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide. And every time you make a purchase with your card, you automatically earn cash back. Welcome to the now it pays to Discover. Learn more@discover.com credit card based on the February 2024 Nelson Report. Live from the NASDAQ markets in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Signs of strife. Broad markets dropping today, but the strength in some specific sectors actually signal trouble ahead. How stocks are reacting to flaring Mideast tensions. And should you be going all in on the safety trade? Plus, as the sun setting on solar stocks, the Senate looking to end tax credits for the industry. What will that mean for the stocks? Are they a buy at current levels? We'll debate that. And a milestone for the streaming sector. Eli Lilly is a big deal in the gene editing space. And we go live to Austin, Texas, where US is taking on Nvidia with its new AI chip. I'm Melissa Lee coming to you live from Studio B at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Steve Rosso, Karen Feinerman, Dan Ethan and Guy Adami. And we start off with markets dropping amid rising tensions in the Middle east. Though major averages close off the worst levels of the session. The dow down about 300 points, the S&P shedding 8.10 of A percent. And the Nasdaq leading the way lower. But a look under the surface reveals a couple of pockets of the market that seem to be raising a red flag. Oil prices back on the rise. WTI crude more than recouping yesterday's losses, settling at its highest price since January. Bonds also getting a bid. The yield on 10 year treasuries dropping 7 basis points. The dollar up as well. And take a look at the defense stocks. Lockheed Martin, RTX, Northrop Grumman, L3Harris all jump. President Trump demanded unconditional surrender from Iran's supreme leader. For the latest on the US Response to the Iran, Israel conflict, we are joined now on set. Come on. By our own Eamon Javers. Eamon, welcome. Thanks. Hey it's great to be here with you. Hold on a second. Are you going to clap him in? You know, we talk about, like the Mount Rushmore. He's a Mount Rushmore. Oh, yeah, Right next to Faber. First ballot Mount Rushmore guy. I mean, it's amazing having. I can't possibly live up to that. No, you do. Every night you're here, every report you file. It's great to be here with you guys. This is like my own version of Fast Money Live. Like, I get one to Fast Money Live, and it's in the chair. This is great. Look, I mean, we've been watching this throughout the day today, right? And obviously there are a lot of concerns about what's going to happen next. We know that the President had this meeting in the Situation Room this afternoon. What we don't know is what parameters he was looking at in terms of U.S. options. And we don't know if he's chosen anything at this hour. But I can tell you that I've been talking to high ranking former U.S. intelligence officials through the afternoon, and there's a couple of things that stand out to them. One is that the Israelis throughout the course of this conflict over the past several days have shown that they have an incredible intelligence advantage over the Iranians in terms of assets in country, the ability to understand where and when Iranian officials were meeting, locations of military installations that maybe we didn't know. The United States clearly did not know how much the Israelis knew about Iran. There's clearly a delta between US and intelligence and Israeli intelligence. Israeli intelligence is much farther ahead than US Intelligence really fully understood, I think, before this conflict broke out. So what does that tell you? It tells you that the Israelis, for now, are in the driver's seat here. And the question is, does Donald Trump want to follow in the direction that Netanyahu is going, or does Trump want to wait and watch this play out and see where things are going to go? And that's a question we just don't know. It's going to be a political, economic, military, probably a psychological calculation by Donald Trump. All of that is very complicated to predict. But as we sit here right now, there is a possibility that the United States is going to get into this war. The US has already deployed a lot of assets to the Middle east. Warships, tankers, aircrafts. I'm just wondering, you know, would. Would the US Be inserting itself into this fray at this point, or are we just there just in case? I think for now, it's just in case. Right. But everything you Prepositioned defensively could in theory be used offensively as well. And the big question is the B2 bomber, right? Because there are instant hardened nuclear facilities in Iran that I'm told by experts really can only be hit by US heavy bombs from the B2 bomber that have the capacity to smash through, you know, sort of mountains, underground, underground, and really do something not quite nuclear explosion, but we're talking very, very big detonating force in those facilities and could actually get them. The Israelis may not have that capability, although, who knows? They've had a lot of capabilities this week that we didn't think that they had. So the big question is whether the President would authorize the B2s or whether the Israelis have another trick up their sleeve. I mean, they have been very adept in terms of using deception, convincing Iranian leaders to go to particular meetings, at particular locations where they were prepared to hit them. I mean, the level of penetration of the Iranian military and, and governance is really astonishing here by Israeli intelligence so far. Is this about regime change? Because our track record with that is not particularly good. Yeah, I mean, that's the question, right? I mean, it started out the Israelis were saying, well, this is about stopping the nuclear enrichment program, so this is about just degrading their ability to get to a nuke. And then the implication was, we'll stop there. But then you saw Netanyahu call for regime change and call for the Iranian people to rise up and say, you know, we're not enemies of the great Iranian people. We're only enemies of the regime. So for the Israelis, it clearly is about regime change. At this point, then the question is, what is the US Goal here? Is it just to hit those nuclear facilities and then go home, or is it to hit the nuclear facilities and change the regime? You saw this post on social media this afternoon from the President saying, we know where the Supreme Leader of Iran is. He's safe there. We're not going to kill him. But, you know, they better come to the table. I mean, it is gun to the head, negotiation time from President Trump here. And maybe the Iranian sort of only way out is to. To cut that deal and to get a deal with the president. So if they do that, do you have any sense what type of deal it would be? I mean, would they guarantee some oil production or. It could be anything. But do you have any sense of what, what could be on the table? One of the big questions is whether you decouple the Iranian proxies from the Iranian nuclear program. So the idea is, you Know, do you do a global deal which says you can't get a nuclear weapon, you can't do enrichment past a certain point. And also we're going to put some constraints around your ability to use proxies like the Houthis and others, the region, and say that's all a package deal and we're going to, we're going to end all of that. The Iranians have not liked that. They don't want to be stopped from getting to enrichment. They don't want to be stopped from having proxies. You know, the question is, how badly bloodied have they been? How bad is their, you know, command and control over their own military at this point and their political leadership? And that's a decision for them to make, how much of a deal they're willing to agree to. This sounds like a very protracted process. I'm just thinking about the lens of the markets, what market participants should be prepared to weather. It sounds like it's not days away in terms of the end of this conflict. No. And the increasing intensity of the conflict could be hours away at this point. Right. We just don't know. And so I think if you're a market participant, you've got to step back and say, okay, what do we care about in the region? We care about sort of general global stability and a lack of sort of World War Three. So what you would be concerned about, there is other great powers being drawn in. Right. So what are the Russians doing? What are the Chinese doing? What's the US Doing in the region? And is that looking like it's going to spread and in some weird way combine sort of the Ukraine problem and the Iran problem into one big global war? That is perhaps the worst case scenario. Right. You'd also be looking at oil, but a lot of the Iranian oil is going to China now anyway. So you might be looking at, does China lose access to that oil and how does that impact the economy in China and then the bank shot impact on US Trade? Right. Eamon, thank you. Great to see you in person. Great to be here. Thank you. Eamon Javers, man. Yeah, we say it all the time when he's not here. I know it's true. And guy bought me a cookie, by the way. I know. Which he doesn't do for many people. Just every other person who comes to the show. Is that what it is? Everybody gets a cookie. I felt like I was special. Every other person gets a. But you're special. You're special and not good to know. Okay, so we Had Michael Schumacher yesterday and he said oil is the main impact on the markets as long as oil remains. Obviously we don't want World War 3, but in terms of this conflict, as soon as oil shoots up, that's when the markets get impacted. We didn't see that. We haven't seen that. Doesn't look like we're going to see that, at least for now. And you know we talk about this all the time. Steve brings it up. Geopolitical bounces in oil are typically short lived and I think this is going to be similar unless something happens in the Straits of Hormuze, they close it or something which I don't see happening. I don't think they're going to sink ships there and those types of things. That's the worst case scenario. So I think you take sort of the oil spike off the table and then what does this mean if it's protracted? Maybe you get lower yields on the back of a flight to quality. Maybe this weaker dollar which has been I think a problem for a while, strengthens on the back of this. But I can't believe if it's protracted, it's market friendly in any way. Yeah, you know one of the things you mentioned that some of the defensive sectors in the stock market today were acting pretty well. That's something you would expect to here. But you know that craze Flight to quality or flight to safety. I think you have to go flight to safety here. If you're buying US Treasuries, you're buying US Dollar. I'm not sure what we've seen over the last couple of months that a flight to quality is the proper name right here. So it'll be interesting to see if we things can't see things calm down over let's say the next week or two. Where does the dollar go? Does it go back towards those lows? I mean it's only up a buck over the Dixie if you think about it over the last few trading days or so. And you do have the 10 year yield. That's down from what I think 4 for 5 just a few trading days ago to 433 right here. So it'll be interesting to see if those things sort of snap back or go the other way because those are the things. Weak dollar, higher 10 year yields. That's what kind of freaked market participants out two months ago. Yep. By the way, I made a mistake. It was Stu Kaiser, not Michael Schumacher. Oh, my bad. Your thoughts do call every one of these during the break. I Know, Michael, every one of these events has been a buying opportunity and it just depends on how much of a discount the market's going to give you. So right now I think it's a buying opportunity. World War Three, not a buying opportunity. But I mean, for now. But I mean tomorrow could be World War 3. Remember what Warren Buffett said, the world only ends once. Right. So when you get that steep discount in the marketplace, I think you're, you've been paid to accept it. The nature of warfare is different now. It's a drone warfare. Who makes the most drones? Northrop Grumman. So if you're going to. I don't, I don't like to play war, but I like to play build up of arsenals. So if you want to play that. And I see, yeah, Kratos is another one. Air environment is another one. In terms of drone and unmanned. It was interesting to see the dollars move today, right? And the 10 year and the 30 year, you know, I think until now this has been Israel's situation to deal with in the last, I mean, for many a long, long time. But in the most recent one, as it becomes ours potentially as well, clearly that sort of gives us another level of risk. But I don't know, it seems, it seems contained right now in that there's not a lot of great moves that Iran can make right now. It doesn't mean we don't see something out of left field, but this is, I feel like we are setting up to have opportunities here aside from whatever. So a dip that you would buy? Yes, I think so. I mean a knee jerk reaction to something bad. I don't think the VIX lives around here at 21. I think it's either going way higher or slowly comes back. You guys have dipped about. You're talking about the 84 basis points that we dropped today. I mean, literally we're at like, you know, we're very near. We've held up very well in spite of all this isn't the dip. I just want to be really clear. I wasn't out there buying like a 5800 level. Remember that China, you know, push out the taco trade, you know that thing. There was a big gap down there, 585750 or something like that. Then you might be able to say, all right, that was a pretty. Look at that one that you meant today. No, you're going to see. I think if you see a bigger opportunity, you would take it. Yeah. All right, well, even with the bid for Treasuries and the US Dollar. Today, bank of America's new global Fund manager survey sees falling demand for US assets. It also finds investors are more underweight the dollar than they've been in two decades. Our next guest sees this as a potential game changing moment for the greenback. Peter Buckvar is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Financial Group. He's also a CNBC contributor. Peter, great to have you with us. You know, with the spate of dollar weakness, we've talked about the US potentially losing its status as a reserve currency and people dismissed it. Are we at the moment where we say maybe this is actually happening? I don't think so. But I do think we're going to see further diversification in the use of the dollar in terms of central bank holdings of the dollar. And that incremental change on the margin could result in a weaker dollar. But look at the dollar versus gold. Dollar has essentially collapsed versus the price of gold. So its question now is what does it do against other fiat currencies? The dollar right now makes up about 58% of foreign central bank reserves. 25 years ago was 70%. I think it can probably go to 50%. But even at 50% it can still hold its reserve basis. But I just think that the world has decided that it over allocated to dollars in terms of the assets owned in the US over the last five to 10 years. And now we're beginning to see in terms of transactions, more global transactions taking place in currencies outside the dollar. And I think that that is a noteworthy trend that is more than just a one or quarter or two quarter thing. Right. And then in addition to the dollar, it's also happening in US Treasuries. According to bank of America and their data for the first quarter they've seen, you know, demand lessen and specifically from foreign holders and dealers. And I'm wondering if that makes this move away from US assets more concerning because it's not just the dollar where it's happening, right? That is part of it. But interestingly enough, foreigners have been reducing their allocation to U.S. treasuries for more than 10 years. Ten years ago foreigners owned 55,0% of the U.S. treasury market. Today they own about 30%. Now they're still buying Treasuries but they're buying less and less relative to the amount that's being issued. And at a time when US has $2 trillion budget deficits, we need all the help that we can get. Peter Last August it was dollar, yen. It was the trigger. What currency crosses it still dollar, yen, you know, at 144, potentially below 140 is at the euro. What's the one that the market equity investors traders should be most focused on? I think the yen because the yen will also go where JGB yields go and where JGB yields go US Treasuries might go. There is a pretty tight relationship amongst a few bond markets around the world and some of their currencies and I'll throw in gilts in there as well. And there's a common characteristic and that is high debt levels and wide budget deficits. But you know, keep an eye on the euro. An interesting article in the FT today from Christine Lagarde. You know she made the case that she wants the Euro and believes that the Euro is at a point in time where it can start to compete against the dollar in terms of reserve currency status. Not that it would become one like the dollar but it can grow in prominence. So I would continue to watch that currency as well. Peter, when you look at the dollar, talk to me about gold again. You mentioned it early earlier on when the Biden administration cut off access for Russia to US dollars back when the war started, central banks started to increase the holdings of gold. Where do you think gold goes? Yes, they've increased it to a large extent to the point where the ECB had a paper last week that said that gold is now the second largest foreign foreign central bank reserve holding in terms of value and it just eclipsed the Euro. I think gold goes much higher. I think it's already had a nice move. So I acknowledge that. I still think that gold right now is not just an inflation hedge or an anti dollar trade. It is an important global reserve holding that I think still has legs to run on the upside and we're long it as a result of that belief. One more quick question Peter, just to sort of clarify this notion that other central banks are diversifying. Do you think that this is, this is a trend that's here to stay? In other words, there is a built in discount now if you will to the dollar now versus before that. This is something structural that's going on? I do think so and I think part of that, and I'll tie this in, I think I said it on your show before, you know, coming into the year, let's take the Mag 7 became a reserve currency asset for foreign holders and I do think that they're rethinking at least their holdings of that. They're rethinking their allocations to US corporate bonds. And certainly US Treasuries now, they're still going to own a lot of U.S. assets. I don't want to necessarily discount that and sort of downplay the U.S. but I think they want to own less. I think that they feel slighted by us. They feel stiff armed by the tariff war. And I think they realize, wow, we own too much of this. Start to find investment opportunities at home. Let's start investing in factories at home. And that means that there's less incremental dollars coming into the US Market. And I think the weakness in the dollar reflects that. And I think this could be a multi year trend. Peter, great to see you. Thank you. Thank you. PETER brookbar, BLEAKLEY FINANCIAL all right, so what do you think happen? And I agree with Peter. I mean he's been saying this for while. I think we've been saying on this desk, I think the dollar does continue to weaken. I think rates continue to go higher today notwithstanding. I get what happened today. But that's the trade that concerned people. As Dan said a couple of months ago, I think that's a trade sort of come back. So for gold again and then also I think for bitcoin, I mean both. Yeah. You know, bitcoin though very correlated to the Nasdaq we think of the Mag 7, we talked about it last night for them are still down in the year. You have a NASDAQ that's up 3% in the year. I'm just saying that bitcoin seems stuck in the mud right here. I think it's very correlated to deficits and growing deficits and you know, at this rate and beyond. Yes, Buzz Lightyear ways in. Coming up, the streaming milestone new TV viewing data shows a bingeing bump in May. What it did that it's never done before. That is next. Plus how US Is building an army against Nvidia. The new chip announcements what it could mean for Nvidia's market dominance to not go anywhere. Fast money's back into Are you still quoting 30 year old movies? Have you said cool beans in the past 90 days? Do you think Discover isn't widely accepted? If this sounds like you, you're stuck in the past. Discover is accepted at 99 of places that take credit cards nationwide. And every time you make a purchase with your card, you automatically earn cash back. Welcome to the now it pays to Discover. Learn more@discover.com Credit Card Based on the February 2024 Nelson Report, McCormack knows unbeatable flavor starts with the right spices. It's why we created flavour sealed. So anytime you peel back the seal of McCormick herbs and spices, you can be confident they will pack the same amount of flavor as the day they were packed. The kind of flavor that brings out the best of your favorite recipes and keeps everyone coming back for seconds or maybe even thirds. McCormick flavor sealed for unbeatable flavor. Ryan Reynolds here from Mint Mobile. With the price of just about everything going up, we thought we'd bring our prices down. So to help us, we brought in a reverse auctioneer, which is apparently a thing. Mint Mobile Unlimited Premium Wireless get 30, 30 get 30 get 20, 2020 better get 2020 get 151515 15. Just 15 bucks a month. Sold. Give it a try@mintmobile.com Switch upfront payment of $45 for three month plan equivalent to $15 per month required new customer offer for first three months only. Speed slow after 35 gigabytes of networks busy taxes and fees extra. CMC mobile.com Got a news alert here. Job cuts at Hasbro. Kate Rogers got the details. Kate? Hi, Melissa. Yeah, and that stock is on the move right now on this news from Dow Jones. The toymaker shed 3% of its global workforce. The job cuts amount to about 150 employees. That's based on nearly 5,000 employees the company had at the end of last year, according to its most recent annual report. Dow Jones reports that a spokesperson said, we're aligning our structure with our long term goals. Its CEO also warned back in April that tariffs could lead to both higher costs for consumers and layoffs in the future. The stock is up just marginally in the after hours trade. Melissa, back over to you. All right, Kate, thank you. Kate Rogers. And of course, the toy industry very hit hard by the trade war, specifically with China. Yeah. And there's an article in the FTSE just now talking about Andrew Jassy, the CEO of Amazon. They're deploying AI across lots of different operations in the business. And he just basically said in a memo to employees we will be cutting jobs in the future for this. So this is obviously here to stay, whether they come sooner or later. I think it's something that a lot of investors are going to start looking for. And I know you guys have been all over this. What are the returns on these sorts of investments? And I think they can look out and suggest that there's a lot of white collar jobs that are probably going to go away and then a lot of jobs that get automated. So there's going to be a lot of stuff in between between, I suspect, too. Meantime, Another sign of the times in the streaming space. The latest Nielsen data showing streaming viewership surpassed broadcast and cable combined for the first time ever in May, capturing nearly 45% of all minutes watched. Since Nielsen began collecting monthly data four years ago, streaming's growth has been eye popping up 71%. While broadcast has dropped 21%. Cable has tanked by nearly 40%. Guess what the number one streamer is? Netflix. Melissa for 500. YouTube. YouTube? That was a trick question. It wasn't a trick question. It was a question that you didn't get right once. I don't get right on. But that's interesting that it's YouTube. Yes. It is part of Alphabet. I know. And I feel like it doesn't get enough love, you know, hidden in the Alphabet soup of Alphabet's businesses. But it is kind of extraordinary. I remember when they bought YouTube for. Was it like a billion? And what's that? I mean, how ridiculous was that? And it turns out, you know, some have it as high as $400 billion. It's always been the crown jewel. And it's the short form that really gets you. I just. You just wind up scrolling through it's you gets me. Yeah. I was only speaking about me. So, you know, when you look at Netflix, this, the chart on this one seems like it's rolling over. I've been way too early. If you're early, you're wrong, but I would not be putting money to work in Netflix right here. YouTube got 12 and a half percent of TV viewing time for. It's my. My next YouTube watch will be your first YouTube watch. You're still the last guy with a cable box. And that's really a problem with that. And that's really. I have a cable box as well. I work in cable, so. Yeah, but if you pay for YouTube TV, you're basically paying for a bundle. You're just not being like a dinosaur. You're not hardware anymore, I think. So you don't know if you have a cable box. I still have a cable box too. Yeah. Wrong with you people. Oh, everybody here except for you has a cable box. I don't think I do. The kids today don't have cable. My kids wouldn't know how to play TV with a cable box. And they are the future of TV viewing. And they have grown up on YouTube. And YouTube TV is a pretty good upsell. Right? There's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next. Chip competition heating up. Amazon's AWS scoring a major win in its semi strategy, the potential threat to Nvidia and what it means for the rest of the hyperscalers. Plus Solar eclipsed why the tax bill is sinking solar stocks can the group rise again or is the trade heading for a blackout? You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ Market site in Times Square. We're back right after this. Are you still quoting 30 year old movies? Have you said cool beans in the past 90 days? Do you think Discover isn't widely accepted? If this sounds like you, you're stuck in the past. Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide and every time you make a purchase with your card, you automatically earn cash back. Welcome to the now it pays to Discover. Learn more@discover.com credit card based on the February 2024 Nelson Report. Ryan Reynolds here from Mint Mobile. With the price of just about everything going up, we thought we'd bring our prices down. So to help us we brought in a reverse auctioneer, which is apparently a thing Mint Mobile Unlimited Premium wireless everybody get 30, 30 better get 30 everybody get 20, 2020 better get 20, 20 everybody get 15, 151515 just 15 bucks a month so give it a try@mintmobile.com Switch upfront payment of $45 for three month plan equivalent to $15 per month required new customer offer for first three months only. Speed slow after 35 gigabytes of network's busy taxes and fees extra. See mint mobile.com welcome back to Fast Money. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy saying the rollout of generative AI across the company will lead to a reduction in its workforce. The tech giant also announcing breakthroughs on one of its AWS custom chips today as it attempts to take on Nvidia's AI dominance. CNBC's Christina Parsonavilis is in Austin, Texas at the US chip lab with more. Hey Christina. Hi Melissa. So let's start with the news coming from Amazon CEO Andy Jassy, who emphasized that they are investing heavily in generative AI across all facets of the business, from Alexa plus to AI tools used for shopping to us for developers. And with that faster innovation unfortunately could come some changes to the workforce. In his blog post he said, quote, in the next few years we expect that this will reduce our total corporate workforce as we get efficiency gains from using AI extensively across the company. Hopefully this isn't the first time these guys here are hearing that news and they're not worried about their jobs. But much of that generative AI technology actually stems from this lab, Annapurna Labs, which used to be top secret, now I'm allowed in, luckily for me. And what we're announcing, what they're announcing today is that they're CPU. This is the Graviton 4 will now have 600 gigabits of networking bandwidth. And so that could possibly be the largest offering in the cloud. So that's the first bit of news and how it's really showcasing their custom chip strategy and how it's competing with the likes of AMD and Intel. But the real battle stems with Nvidia and AI. We know that AWS not too long ago announced that they're going to be launching hundreds of thousands, more than likely half a million of their own Trainium 2 chips to build the largest AI supercomputer that they will be using for Anthropic. And we can show you exactly what this is. These are the Trainium 2 chips. And that's a big deal to be using Trainium chips to build a giant large supercomputer when historically in the past that probably would have went to Nvidia. I spoke to Gadi Hutt, an AWS executive, who explained the difference between both Nvidia chips and AWS chips. Listen in. Blackwell is more performant than training 2, but training 2 is still more cost performant than the Blackwell. And we also announced Trainium 3. Training 3 is coming up this year and it's doubling the performance of training two and it's going to save energy by 50 additional percent. So the secret weapon for AWS has to do with around price performance. But the other bit of news too is that you have large language models like Claude 4 that are training on US custom chips. So it's really not a question of whether you can gain market share, it's about whether Nvidia is going to be having to give up some of that share as we go on over the next few years. And their offerings keep improving. Guys, where are the chips manufactured, Christina? Most of it. The design is in house and they do use Taiwan semi as well. Okay, Christina, thank you. That's fantastic. Make sure you get everybody's stuff back onto their desk because it looks like you grabbed a bunch of things. Oh, I know, I know. I just like dropped it. Took the chips out. Yeah. Show and tell. Yeah, don't worry about it. I got it. All right, thank you, Christina. Christina parts Navalis from AWS in Austin, Texas. No one can do it like she does. She's the first woman who's ever been in that lab before. So enjoy it there might be women engineers other than the engineers. So your, your question is the most important question. Was she just mentioned Nvidia? They got to keep share. All of Nvidia's customers are doing their own custom stuff. But Taiwan semi wins no matter what, all the time. Yeah, yeah. This is my premise on, on Nvidia losing their manta, their seat on the mantle is that everyone's going to be doing what they're doing and their top four clients that are responsible for 40% of the revenue are making their own chips. So you don't need a large language model for a lot of these chips. You can use an inferior chip. It's going to hurt Nvidia is that time today, tomorrow we've seen it dip, but I think inevitably you're going to see Nvidia lose its luster. And I'm looking for the stock to be back below 100. Is it tomorrow? Maybe not. I don't think tomorrow, but maybe in, maybe in a year. I don't think you're going to see this, this reign last forever. Right. I mean it also, this whole thing underscores Amazon's positioning in terms of a beneficiary, AI beneficiary in terms of the cloud services it sells. If it's reducing the cost of these data centers, the margins could be better, the prices could be better. And then also they are reaping efficiencies because they just mentioned a reduction in workforce. So they're seeing it from both sides on those high margin workers. Right. I mean high. I'm sorry, Expensive. Expensive. Yeah. Right. Which that's, that saves money Very, very quickly. Just to Steve's point, I want to push back a little bit. I mean, sure, Amazon, Amazon has the resources to make their own chip. Several, several. But not so many. And I still think we haven't Google, Microsoft, Apple. Yes. And they're 40% of Amazon of Nvidia's rev. I think the enterprise business though has so much more to go. All those companies who will do it themselves but aren't going to be making their own chips. Chips could buy from them, can buy from Amazon and Google and Microsoft. Click and you get it. No, I think, I think that there's still, there's still Runway for Nvidia. We're very early innings here. Ultimately, I think you will be right. Will it be that Nvidia will forever be able to have 72% margins? No, but I think that's just a little further off than quickly. Amazon, I think is a margin story. Almost 12% last quarter, street was looking for 11.32, up from 10.7 last year. I think at 30 times next year's numbers, it's actually sort of reasonable at these levels. Coming up, a shadow falling over solar stocks. Why the latest tax bill changes are hitting those names and whether the sun will rise again for the group. The details and best money returns. Welcome back to FAST money. Stocks dropping as the Middle east conflict between Israel and Iran continues. The dow falling nearly 300 points. The S&P and Nasdaq both down about 9, 10 of a percent. Shares of Humana more than 2% today. The insurer holding Investor Day yesterday where it outlined near and long term profit goals. Strepto Therapeutics meantime, trying to bounce back after yesterday's massive drop. The stock plunged more than 42% Monday after the company reported a new death related to its gene therapy drug for Duchenne muscle muscular dystrophy and Cor Weave. With another big day. Shares up another 8% and closing at another record. Shares up more than 300% since its IPO in late March. Meanwhile, shares of Wal mart notching its 10th straight day of losses, tying for its longest losing streak ever. You were looking at coreweave, Karen. I was just looking. You know, we've talked a lot about what's going on with the short squeeze. And I was just looking, where are the puts that expire after the lockup comes off? So I was looking at the October because the lockup comes off late September. So in October, 100 put with the stock at about 172 was about $74. The 100 put. Wow. Yeah. And that was 175. I'm sorry, that was 170. The 170 put. The 170 call was about $17. You would normally see nothing even remotely close to that. That it all goes to. Sorry, I misspoke on the 100. It was a 170. It just all goes to. It's a short squeeze. You cannot borrow the stock. You cannot short it. That's why the puts are so extraordinarily expensive. All right. Well, we got a brutal day today for solar stocks after the Senate Finance Committee moved to phase out renewable energy tax credits in the latest version of the budget bill. First Solar Enphase Energy, SolarEdge Sun Run among those seen the steepest losses, each down double digits. For more on what's at stake for the group, let's get to Pippa Stevens. Pippa. Hey, Melissa. So hopes had been rising that the Senate bill would reverse the sledgehammer approach that the House's version took to clean energy credits. But while it's marginally better, it still vastly reduces those credits. Residential solar is the hardest hit, with the lucrative 30% tax credit expiring 180 days after the bill's enactment. Sun Run plummeted 40% during the session with Enphase and SolarEdge, which make hardware for resi systems, also dropping. The 45x manufacturing credit that benefits First Solar was left largely unchanged, but the Stock still fell 18% on expectations that the industry as a whole will slow. Now, there are a few positives. The Senate's bill has a slightly longer lead time for projects to begin construction and still be eligible for the credits. And there's also a slower step down, but the credits still expire years before those in the Inflation Reduction Act. As Guggenheim's Joseph Osha said, while a lot can still happen, hoping for a fix continues to be naive. Melissa? All right, Pippa, thank you. Pippa Stevens. Let's get more with Oppenheimer senior research analyst Colin Rush. Colin, great to have you with us. I first want to focus on the residential solar sector, which had already been under vast pressure because of consumer confidence, because of financing costs, so many other reasons, and now this. And I'm just wondering what, what happens in this sector? It's been rerated, obviously. Is it enough? What happens to these. Honestly, this bill is bad business and it's bad policy. I mean, the reality is that the IRA was net generative of tax revenue by 2031, really starting to turn positive in 2028, and to the tune of $175 billion, according to the American center for Progress. And, you know, and ballooning beyond $500 billion of net tax revenue generation for the federal government by the middle decade. So what the residential market is looking for now is a fix around really the leasing elements of the 48e credits, which allow for financing of systems at the, at the residential level. And the reality is, for utilities and consumers alike, is that it's much easier to deploy dispatchable systems, which would be solar plus energy storage at homes, rather than building incremental distribution lines and transmission lines, which are expensive. They take a very long time. And so we're hoping that we'll see a fix. I agree that we're unlikely to see something with the reconciliation process, but right now we're going to have to see what the rules are and then start problem solving from there as an industry. So there's just a lot of unknowns, as I understand it. For first Solar. A lot of you analysts out there thought that First Solar would be among the solar stock stocks that would be less scathed than the rest of the group with these tax credits ending. But at the same time here, the question mark is whether or not they can still get the stacked credits in manufacturing. You know, when will we have some resolutions? It was a big surprise to see what we saw coming out of the Senate last night because we are seeing a material step down on an annual basis for the 45x credits, which are the manufacturing credits. And so for an administration that has touted reshoring and looking for manufacturing where there's been some very significant investments, a lot of job creation for the solar industry to the tune of 275,000 jobs in this industry with a healthy portion of that being manufacturing jobs. To walk away from manufacturing for this industry just doesn't quite make sense. And I think that was a big surprise today. So first Solar obviously has some work to do around figuring out what they're going to continue to invest in in this country. But there's going to be some jobs that are created. There's incremental investments for manufacturing in the US that will not be made because of this bill and we'll see electricity prices continue to go higher at an even higher rate. So Colin, not that it matters, but SolarEdge I think was almost a $400 stock four years ago. I think it closed at 16 today, the worst day on record. My question is, is there a winner in all of this? Is there the other side of that coin on the solar side? Yeah, I mean there's certainly names that do benefit. So we're looking at the utilities, you know, the public health utilities that do win from this. You know, you're going see some of those folks like Nextera and some of the other folks like energy that have exposure on this space that are going to be net beneficiaries here. Certainly we're seeing some of the folks on the construction side that can start charging higher prices here short term because there's going to be a very big push to get construction done as soon as possible in the industry are going to be able to raise prices, businesses to push these things forward. But you know, the real loser are consumers and really a lot of folks that have some very, you know, very, I think, compelling jobs building the clean energy economy with this bill. Colin, great to have you. Thank you. Colin Oppenheimer, for about Steve, what do you think? Yeah, yes, when I first saw the headline I thought about it for a bounce and then I thought there's a lot we don't know. And there's a lot we don't know about the revenues. As you said, First Solar should have been the one that was bullet, not bulletproof, but the least impacted. And that didn't happen. I think it's a no touch. We've got a news alert on TikTok. Kate Rogers has got the details here. Kate. Hi, Melissa. The Wall Street Journal is reporting President Trump is set to sign an executive order that will spare TikTok from enforcement of a law banning or forcing the sale of the app. Now, this is a good third extension on the potential ban since Trump took office in January. The current one was set to expire Thursday. And as a reminder, Congress did pass that bill enforcing ByteDance to sell the platform or have TikTok banned in the U.S. in a statement, Press Secretary Caroline Leavitt said to the Journal, as he said many times, President Trump does not want TikTok to go dark. This extension will last 90 days, which the administration will spend working to ensure this deal is closed so that the American people can continue to use TikTok with the assurance that their data is safe and secure. So once again, another TikTok ban extension here another 90 days from this Thursday. Melissa, back over to you, Kate. Thanks, Kate Rogers. It seems like with every passing day, there's less of an argument that it is a national security threat. If you're willing to just extend it for another 90 days and let it exist and potentially threaten the information of Americans Again, I mentioned YouTube before, so that first tick tock, whatever I watch will be. You're all over. The next will be the first. I mean, this is Dan Nathan. He's our TikTok expert. I can't even look at the hypocrisy about this whole situation. Going back to 2017, when Trump first basically threatened to ban it is just ridiculous. It just kind of does, does not speak to a level of cohesiveness about our policy and what we're willing to do to oppose China and kind of reorient trade. All right, coming up, do not go anywhere. More fast money. And two, we've got a news alert on the Senate stablecoin vote. Emily Wilkins has got the details. Emily. Hey, Melissa. Well, yes, the Senate has now passed that major stablecoin bill that really sets the rules of the road with strong bipartisan support. Final vote was 68 for, only 30 against. Bill now moves on to the House where it has still a lot of bipartisan support, but a lot of questions about exactly how it's going to move there. The House has its own version of the stablecoin bill. It differs a little bit in terms of federal oversight and how it treats foreign issuers. Plus, the House wants to move stablecoin along with a market structure bill for digital assets that's considered a little more complex. So we might not see this bill immediately move in the House, but there is certainly a lot of momentum and a lot of willingness to get this done. MELISSA Is this what's known as the genius act? EMILY this is this is indeed the genius act and the House bill is the stable act. And we'll see if they wind up combining those two names at some point. All right, Emily, thank you. Emily wilkins, the stable Genius act would be a great bill. But this is interesting because just last week we were talking about Walmart and Amazon, right, thinking about a stablecoin sort of system of payment that really disrupted on that day at least MasterCard and Visa, which would have a lot to lose if they then went the stablecoin route instead of paying all those interchange fees. Right. So I don't know how long it would take to actually have this, you know, not only enacted but become sort of regular use. But still, it's a very I keep thinking it is the threat to Google Search similar. Yep. Coming up, another deal for Eli Lilly, how the new biotech buy could bolster the pharma giants pipeline. What it means for shares of Lilly after a wild ride this year. The details and fast Money returns. Welcome back to Fast Money Shares, a Verve Therapeutics soaring 81% after Eli Lilly agreed to buy the gene editing company for up to 1 $1.3 billion. It's just the latest deal for the pharma giant as it looks to broaden its pipeline. CNBC's Health and Pharmaceutical reporter Angelica Peebles got the details. Angelica? Yeah, MELISSA. Well, with this deal, Lilly will get its hands on Verve's experimental gene editing treatments to prevent heart attacks. Now, Verve's goal is to make an edit that would decrease bad cholesterol and all with a single infusion. And the initial focus is on people at high risk of heart attack. But it's possible that if it pans out, they could one day use this technology more broadly. And that's exactly the kind of big swings that Lilly wants to take. And it, of course, has the benefit of being able to take thanks to the cash that it's bringing in from those GLP1 drugs. And I actually sat down with Lilly's chief scientific officer, Dan Skavronsky exclusively a few months ago where he shared Lilly's excitement about gene therapy. We didn't invest when it was in vogue. We waited until it was out of vogue, which is a strategy. I prefer to be a countercyclical investor here, but I think the long term potential of gene therapy is unchanged and waiting to make a move. Certainly seems to have paid off here. Lilly will pay $10.50. $50.50. Excuse me, a share upfront. And that's almost a 70% premium from Monday's close. But that's still well below the $19 a share that Verb IPO'd at in 2021 during the biotech boom times. Melissa. Angelica. Thank you. Angelica Peebles. What is amazing is that you make this one time infusion. In theory, you are cured. Yeah, that's it. You don't have high cholesterol, whatever they're targeting here, but yes. Which would be amazing. Right. But it just goes to show you, Eli Lilly's playing offense right now because they can. Good for them. Other companies are on their heels, but names like Viking and Structure and all the names we talk about, they're absolutely in play given what's going on. Yeah. How are you feeling about Novo? I mean, Lilly seems to be making a lot of moves with its cash in order to diversify. Unrelated to the Right outside of the GLP one. No, I mean, you're right, Lilly. You can do that. You can just take these swings. If it goes to zero. I don't even know if it's a rounding error on their, on their income statement or not. But I mean, it's interesting. I like the waiting part. When it was 19. Good job. Up next, final trades, Final trade time. Steve Reddit. It's the RMI Boxer. It has not been performing well. I think it's turned a corner. Karen. Yeah, well, if you went home long, same as buying it. Here. Dell. Go Liberty tonight. Go Liberty. Dan, bounce back to the Liberty TLT guy. The Ian Might tube. Are you familiar with that? Melissa, get your tube. I am not. I'm not. That would be eqt. Thank you for watching. Fast Money. Mad Money starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable. 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