CNBC "Fast Money" Podcast Summary
Episode: Stocks Drop In Major Reversal… And Opportunities In A Red-Hot Biotech Sector
Air Date: November 20, 2025
Host: Leslie Picker (in for Melissa Lee)
Panelists: Carter Worth, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami, Mike Khouw
Featured Guests: Bill Simon (former Walmart US CEO), Ben Emons (FedWatch Advisors), John Flavin (Portal Innovations), Kate Rogers (CNBC)
Overview of Episode’s Main Theme
In this episode, the "Fast Money" team dissects a dramatic reversal in the stock market, headlined by a sharp drop in major indices following euphoria over Nvidia earnings. The episode explores what this might mean for the market through year-end, discusses trends in retail and restaurant stocks, delves into the booming biotech sector and M&A activity, and examines the latest jobs data and its implications for Fed policy. Actionable insights and debates over consumer health, valuation paradigms, and sector rotation abound.
Key Discussion Points and Insights
1. Massive Market Reversal – What Happened?
- Summary: Early gains led by Nvidia’s strong earnings evaporated, sending the Nasdaq, S&P, and Dow down sharply. Bitcoin also plummeted, pushing the VIX (“fear gauge”) above 28 for the first time since April.
- Guy Adami [02:55]: "We've been talking about the volatility index on this show for a while...Those were sort of a precursor...What does it mean? You don't see reversals like this all that often. They're very powerful."
- Carter Worth [03:56]: "There's always the thought there has to be some news item...In crypto, often things just start to sell off and there's something called, hey, get me out...So this has a bit of a panic to it."
- Dan Nathan [05:20]: Points to Nvidia's blowout reporting but questions who the incremental buyer is after such good news. "When you have a stock like this open on the day at the high of the day and close on the low of the day...the expectation that this is going to turn right away...is probably not a great one."
- Mike Khouw [07:51]: Notes risk aversion began weeks ago in speculative high-beta stocks, and now top-tier names have joined. "We move from elevated to high [VIX], but it could still go a little bit higher."
Notable Moment
- Carter Worth [04:44]: “We’re now down 5% plus...that’s the first time that’s happened since the plunge low of April…the correction is long overdue and I wouldn’t think it stops here.”
- Dan Nathan [07:04]: On selling psychology: "You don't use the word panic to the upside ever...But panic works both ways."
2. Retail Winners and Losers: Focus on Walmart, Gap, and Costco
- Walmart: Rose 6% after beating on earnings and raising guidance, underlining its digital expansion and perceived consumer resilience.
- Bill Simon, former Walmart US CEO [09:52]: “There’s almost no indication of any inflation in Walmart’s report...So I think fears of inflation...we can put that one aside at least for a little while.”
- On SNAP exposure: “If they'd have seen it in November, they wouldn't have raised their guidance.”
- On valuation: “They’re operating better than anybody else...they were built as a brick-and-mortar retailer...now they're valued at the top end of a retailer but at the bottom end of a digital company like Amazon.”
- Walmart’s move to NASDAQ seen as a strategic rebranding toward a technology-focused retailer.
- Costco vs. Walmart: Simon sees Costco as undervalued but facing structural pressures from changing consumer habits and less SNAP benefit compared to Walmart. [13:20]
- Gap: Reported best same-store sales growth since 2018; efforts to revitalize brand coolness, effective marketing, and margin maintenance despite tariffs cited as reasons for success.
- Courtney Reagan [15:05]: “Gap is exceeding expectations. We are winning with all income cohorts with equal growth in low, middle, and high incomes.”
Memorable Quote
- Carter Worth [14:27] (on Walmart moving exchanges): "It's the biggest move ever from one exchange to another...It's their way of saying, you know what, we're a retailer but we're technology-focused."
3. Jobs Report, Rates, and the Fed
-
Ben Emons (FedWatch Advisors) [21:11]: "It was a bullish report because...unemployment rate rising was really for the good reason...This report actually shows...the Fed doesn't have a reason here to cut rates immediately."
- Suggests low chance of a December rate cut; sees the Fed on hold barring surprises.
-
Bond Market Discussion [23:11]:
- Adami: "Best case scenario for the market. There's no bond volatility."
- Carter Worth [25:53]: “We are basically at 4% [Treasury rates], right?...It is the reason that the so-called Goldilocks narrative has been okay, we can have any multiple we want because we don’t have to worry about a spike in interest rates.”
-
Private Credit Risk [24:40][26:30]:
- Concerns over the opacity and rapid growth in private credit markets, highlighted by the termination of the Blue Owl merger.
4. Restaurant Sector – Scale Pays Off
- Kate Rogers [29:24]: Despite a red day broadly, fast food giants like McDonald's and Yum Brands posted gains, reflecting the advantage of scale and focus on value-conscious consumers.
- Guy Adami [30:27]: “When comps growth and when it stops and turns the first thing that people look at and then you’re done...McDonald’s is sort of the Walmart in the space.”
- Mike Khouw [31:06]: Suggests Yum Brands as a good defensive restaurant play, highlighting growth and relative valuation.
5. Biotech Boom and State-Level Innovation Investment
- Biotech sector up 22% YTD; M&A doubling to $100B.
- John Flavin, Portal Innovations [33:48]: Attributed sector turnaround to Big Pharma’s patent cliff and the need to replenish pipelines, sparking demand for innovation and acquisitions.
- “The funds flow and the juices are finally back in the system after...coming out of that nuclear winter.”
- On State Funding [37:40]: Texas highlighted for major investments (e.g., Cancer Prevention Research Institute), with other states like Rhode Island joining. Sign of a shift from traditional biotech hubs.
- Flavin: “States...as the FDA and the NIH pull back is where the innovation action is happening.”
6. Internet, Tech, and Consumer-Facing Stocks: Under Pressure
- Leslie Picker [39:12]: Noted Netflix, Spotify, DoorDash, Uber down sharply from recent highs.
- Dan Nathan [40:04]: "These are companies that should be benefiting from some sort of spend as it relates to AI...I think that you’re losing legs of the stool of the tech trade..."
- Valuations and Consumer Health Debated:
- Carter Worth cautions against expensive valuations becoming a concern in corrections.
- Guy Adami pushes back on claims of a resilient consumer, tying tech weakness to broader consumer softness.
7. OpenAI & Foxconn Partnership – Data Center Hardware in the U.S.
- Mackenzie Sagalos [42:50]: OpenAI partners with Foxconn to develop and manufacture U.S.-based AI server hardware, signaling a major supply chain localization push and buildout beyond Nvidia hardware.
- Dan Nathan [45:01]: Notes potential skepticism: “This is assuming all of that one and a half trillion dollars is all going to get funded...”
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments (with Timestamps)
- Carter Worth on panic:
"We don't use the word panic to the upside ever... But panic works both ways." (07:04) - Bill Simon on inflation fears:
"There's almost no indication of any inflation in Walmart's report...I think we can put that one aside at least for a little while." (09:52) - John Flavin on biotech innovation:
"The funds flow and the juices are finally back in the system after several bad quarters coming out of that nuclear winter..." (34:41) - Dan Nathan on tech weakness:
"I think that you’re losing legs of the stool of the tech trade and the semis...are probably the last leg of that." (40:04) - Mike Khouw on Gap:
"The move that you’re seeing after hours here, I think could be just the start of something a little bit better..." (18:15) - Carter Worth on yields and market narrative:
"It is the reason that the so-called Goldilocks narrative has been okay; we can have any multiple we want because we don’t have to worry about a spike in interest rates." (25:53)
Key Timestamps for Important Segments
- Market Reversal / Nvidia fallout: 02:28 – 09:18
- Walmart earnings & retail sector: 09:18 – 14:44
- Gap earnings / brand resurgence: 14:44 – 18:51
- Jobs data & Fed outlook: 20:27 – 26:23
- Private Credit/Blue Owl concerns: 24:13 – 27:25
- Restaurant sector (McDonald's, Yum): 29:24 – 31:33
- Biotech boom, M&A, State funding: 33:48 – 39:12
- Consumer tech/Internet stocks drop: 39:12 – 42:19
- OpenAI / Foxconn partnership: 42:39 – 45:35
Final Trades & Wrap
- Mike Khouw: Buy Gap with a buy-write options strategy
- Carter Worth: Sell short SMH (semiconductor ETF)
- Guy Adami: McDonald's as a steady outperformer
Overall Tone: The panel maintained a brisk, debate-driven style, blending caution on market froth and tech valuations with cautious optimism in areas like retail outperformance and biotech innovation. The mood was analytical and actionable, with a particular focus on how sector rotation and macro developments might shape the final stretch of 2025 for investors.
