← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
Stocks Jump To Close Out Volatile Week, And The Technical Take On The Market Swings 4/11/25
00:43:41
Stocks closing out an extremely volatile week, as daily tariff headlines whipsaw markets. How the latest tariff headlines are impacting stocks across the board, and what earnings season will bring to the table. Plus… The S&P 500 at a standoff. Why the chartmaster says the market is at a difficult level, and how the lines are looking on one streaming giant ahead of results next week. Fast Money Disclaimer
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- [00:00]
Melissa Lee
Say you've always wanted to take a spontaneous trip to the Caribbean. Here's the thing. If you get smart with your money, you can do things like that. With Empower, you can start making the most out of your money so you can get out and live a little. Isn't that why we work so hard to have some fun with our money, like treating yourself to something special or spontaneously doing something extra for a loved one? So use Empower and get good at money so you can be a little bad. Join their 19 million customers today@empower.com not an empowered client, paid or sponsored. Your best hotel in Bethesda has every guest raving. How do you make every hotel like your best hotel? Your best plant In Atlanta employs 4,500 people. How do you get 4,500 people working at peak efficiency? Your best data center in Redmond has optimized every drop of water. How do you make every data center the pinnacle of sustainability? The answer is Ecolab. Ecolab bringing out the best in your business. Live in the NASDAQ Marketsite in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Finishing on a high note. Markets closing out a wild week with solid gains. The S and p up nearly 6%. The Nasdaq up 7. But the moves in the 10 year still creating angst for many seasoned investors. We'll go inside the numbers. Plus shining higher and higher, another fresh record for gold. The precious metal now up 23% this year and the miners following suit. Is there still room to get in on the action? And later, tired of looking at your sagging for 1k, how about a little pinstripe profits instead? CNBC Sport releasing its MLB valuations list. Guys, Yankees reign supreme. But where do Tim's Mets rank? Stick around to find out. I'm Melissa Lee. Come to you live from Studio B at the Nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Feiderman and Dan Nathan. Just the three of them, plenty though. Stocks closing out a very volatile week with solid gains. The NASDAQ jumping 2%, bringing its gains since Monday to over 7%. That is its best week since November 2022. S&P gaining 1.8% today. The Dow up nearly six hundred and twenty points. Those indices both posting their best weeks in over a year. But the big story tonight, the rapid rise in rates. Yields on the 10 year treasury getting within a stone's throw of the 4.6% mark today, touching its highest level since February. It is up more than 60 basis points from its Monday lows. So why this disconnect? But between stocks and bonds, the treasury market overreacting is just unwinding of trades. I don't know how do you interpret this, Tim?
- [02:32]
Tim Seymour
I think there's a lot of cross currents here and there are ones that we talked about well before tariff time and we talked about a record deficit and refunding that needed to happen. We talked about some concerns from the credit rating agencies. But you know, overall slower growth and an economy that until we really stepped on April, I guess April 1st and Liberation Day, you had an argument that actually bonds might be rallying because in fact you were seeing slower growth. And what's, what's really been the test here is a sense that look, fiscal discipline in the United States of America is something that I think ultimately would be applauded. I think there are a lot of crosscurrents that have foreign investors but also have some people questioning the sustainability of some of the policy here. That's really at the heart of what's going on in the treasury market. And while we've had like this week has been extraordinary by any measure for stocks, for bonds, for currencies and those of us that have been through a couple cycles, including the global financial crisis, there's some of this we've seen before. But what I will say is I'm not sure we've seen a bond rout that's not been fed inflicted before. And a question whether there really was some change in the confidence level of the rest of the world on investing in the United States. That's what this week was about. And I think the reality is we are left with tariffs even after a pause in the 90 day. That leaves a lot of people concerned really just about the economy and where we are on an effective tariff rate.
- [03:55]
Melissa Lee
Yeah, I mean you mentioned currencies but decline in the dollar since Liberation Day also very concerning when paired with this abandonment seemingly of Treasuries at this.
- [04:03]
Tim Seymour
Right.
- [04:03]
Karen Feiderman
I mean the, the Dixie hit just over 99 I think at the low close higher than that but down. I mean it's so I think to me it's so many cross currents and I agree you'd think that data from today would have been supportive for the 10 year not the case. So I don't know how much of it is this notion that the US is in a different position than it used to be and money leaving there or we talked about yesterday just, just an allocation around other areas in the world not having to do with the tariff situation, but just having to do with the relative value proposition of going somewhere else so that I don't like to see things not working as they're supposed to. Even in an up market, it's still a little bit uncomfortable to see things that don't correlate the way that you expect.
- [04:50]
Dan Nathan
Yeah, that's one of the things. If you're just staring at the stock market, say to yourself, just being the silver lining guy on the desk is like, every year or so we get about a 10% decline in the S and P from a relative high. Right now we're down about 10%. I think the way we came down 10% is something that probably felt a little bit more uncomfortable. Go back to 2022, when the S and P at its lows was down like what, 25, 26% or so. It never felt panicky. Right, right. And, you know, even when the Fed told us what they were going to do, they were going to raise interest rates trying to normalize, trying to, you know, really fight inflation. And if you think about their playbook other than that one period, whenever we have growth scares, whenever we have the stock market selling off or home value is getting worse or the potential for unemployment to rise, the Fed has a playbook, and the playbook is to lower interest rates. Right. And we saw that back in 2018 in the Q4 when the stock market sold off 20%, there were global growth scares. The Fed had been trying to raise interest rates. They got Fed funds up to two and a half percent. And what did they do? They pivoted. Right. In 2019. And then we got all of that back. And I think a lot of the economic data kind of stabilized. Well, they don't have that ability right now into what these guys both said. I mean, they're kind of like in a pickle here because we haven't seen this sort of arrangement in a long time. And I'll just, you know, guys down on the desk today. But he's been talking about this for a very long time. He's been contrarian about, you know, rates and the direction in which he thought they were going to go. The other point I'll say is that, you know, we got $9 trillion of debt to roll this year. So think about that in this sort of environment. You know, that could be a really difficult situation. When you think about our debt service and what it is relative to other expenditures, it's more than that of our defense budget and the like. So this is not going to go away. I don't think anytime soon.
- [06:28]
Tim Seymour
No, and I think it's, it's, it's interesting because Jamie Dimon used a word today, kerfuffle, that a lot of people had to look up in their dictionaries. But it's a great word, a kerfuffle, which is, means, you know, a little bit, a little bit of chaos, a little bit of craziness that will lead to some type of a Fed intervention. But you know, again, because the week is really a focus on tariffs and a question about confidence, I want to state pretty clearly I think the US Is still the best place in the world to invest by far. I think the challenge to some of the thesis that investors have had for not just decades but, but really for, for, you know, I think over 100 years or more is, is that, you know, we've had a current, a capital account surplus that has often offset our, our trade deficit and that's a reflection of foreign capital that's been very happy financing our deficit, very happy investing here, very comfortable with U.S. risk. And I think for the most part that will remain. And not only is it because it's a relative improvement, but I think some of the things that are going on here, especially including conversations we've had on this show this week, where is the US really trying to, is this administration trying to restructure the way the US Economy is built and make structural changes? Which you know, I don't agree with, but I do think there's a question that some people believe that some of that confidence has been eroded. I think it's going to take a lot to, to erode it overnight. And I do think we're in a, in a dynamic where this week, the week over week move in Treasuries reflects this. But I still think, you know, what's, what's at least reassuring. First of all, that 10 year auction that came out on Wednesday was a very big moment for the markets this week. I think we've had, it was pretty interesting week for CPI and ppi.
- [08:17]
Dan Nathan
Right.
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Tim Seymour
Data actually was somewhat more benign and gave the Fed a little bit of room. I think we're going to have some slowing growth in this economy anyway, which historically might have been an opportunity to buy bonds. So let's see how next week goes. But I'm sure the headlines will remain confusing and I think for equity investors, I don't think you have to do anything here and I think that's something to think about.
- [08:38]
Melissa Lee
Yeah, I agree that, that I don't, I don't think The US Is going to lose its status as sort of the. The reserve currency or the safe haven of the world at this point. But at the same time, if you just take the other side of it, if you think that what the Trump administration has done, this is not going to be a political statement, I promise. If it is just so unusual and such a departure from what has been done in the past and has challenged the order, then why not rethink the US as the safe haven? Why not rethink the safety of US Treasuries if. If we are going through a tremendous and extraordinary period of transition here?
- [09:15]
Karen Feiderman
Well, or at least diversify some. Right, yeah, just change the allocation a little bit. Right. And on the margin, if you have that on big scale, then that moves things.
- [09:23]
Dan Nathan
It's broader than just from an economic standpoint. I mean, think what's going in the last month or two prior to this tariff thing. I mean, we are really questioning, or a lot of our allies are questioning, our commitment to things like Naito, you know, like. So from a security standpoint, there's so many different ways in which this has really hurt America's standing in the world. Make no mistake about it, because I think a lot of our allies, first and foremost, think, why are you turning this on us when we could actually make a more of a unified front against something that we all agree with is a bit of a problem, and that's China, you know what I mean? So I think, you know, no matter what side of the aisle you're on, everybody feels like, yeah, there's a way in which to reorient global trade and put us in a better position. But the way in which they're doing it, I don't think is it. And we heard the start of this week, you know, from all of these hedge fund guys, big hedge fund guys, and guys like Jamie Dimon, who took a stand on Wednesday. I think all of them agree that there are problems to be fixed, but the way in which they've gone about it, it's not correct and it might do some lasting damage.
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Melissa Lee
For more on this bond market turmoil, let's bring in Subhadra Jap, Societe General's head of US Rate strategy. Subhadra, great to have you with us. What do you think is behind this turmoil in the bond market recently?
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Subhadra Jap
So, a variety of factors. Right. You are seeing investors use the treasury market as, you know, as a mark, as a collateral for some of their assets. So there's been some unwind of those positions and, and selling of Treasuries but to me what's really concerning is the fact that the trading ranges are quite wide. You're looking at 10 year olds just today trading between 435 and 465. So that kind of volatility to me is quite troubling. Initially the reaction to the bond market was that we saw a flight to quality as equities started rallying. But now you started to see foreign investors sell Treasuries, you're starting to see other types of investors actually repatriate that cash away from the US to Swissies and other currencies. So there's a broad variety of dynamics that are driving the price action in the bond market, but it's quite troubling.
- [11:33]
Melissa Lee
At what point do you think there's talk now of Fed intervention? So what point do you think that happens? That this is problematic, that it is not orderly and that something has to.
- [11:44]
Subhadra Jap
Be done if there is a gap, move higher in yields, for instance. Like I said, we've had a massive intraday volatility today in a day when we did not get a top tier data. We had the Michigan survey, the University of Michigan survey and then you had ppi. But nothing in the data should really move the market as much as it did. If you do see that sort of price action where we break through some key technical levels and before you know it we're approaching 10 year yields at 5% then that's troubling again. The Fed is going to look at a variety of metrics and look at the liquidity in the bond market. They're going to see what the price action is and, and intervene only if needed.
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Tim Seymour
Subhadra, extraordinary week for currencies as we've talked about. I mean the move in the Swiss franc, I mean again, once again it looks like the Swiss really is the gold standard and literally in a week when gold has gone to record highs. But I brought up before that some of this is unprecedented. We've all seen plenty of market cycles. But the part about this is usually when we've seen a massive dislocation in the treasury market, it's been Fed induced and it's been uncertainty around that and there have been technical reasons too, but, but this is one where the Fed has been laying low and that if anything the Fed is seen as someone stepping in. So the, the, the precedent here for the US bond market, if you believe that that is what it is, why is that? What is what is creating this precedent? Because I think we danced around it here and I just Curious. You're in those markets every day.
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Subhadra Jap
Yeah. This is a very unusual crisis.
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Melissa Lee
Right.
- [13:20]
Subhadra Jap
Typically when you see a crisis like what we saw back in March of 2020 or the financial crisis, or even going back to the tech bubble, typically you tend to see Treasuries act as that safe haven bet. So investors sell equities and they, and they put their money into the bond market. This time around, the Fed has told us that they really are stuck between an Iraq and a hard place. With inflation as high as it is, they're just not able to come in and cut rates quickly if needed. They're going to be very careful on the policy front. Then you have to look at what the policy, the policies put forth from the Trump administration on the, on the, on the trade, trade, trade side is going to be somewhat, you know, inflationary. If inflation starts to pick up and growth starts to, to go lower, that really puts the Fed in a very, very tight spot. So the Fed is not in a position to really act if there is, if they need to, and cut rates. So that's, that's when I think it gets a little bit tricky and investors are getting a little bit skittish because you're seeing these unwinds of, of positions and margin calls and foreigners stepping away from the, from the treasury market. And that makes it, but it's the.
- [14:34]
Tim Seymour
Long end of the curve, by the way. You know, it's really, we all say all the time is not really what the Fed controls. So what we're most worried about is the long end of the curve, which is a combination of a lot of things. But look, it's premium risk, it's duration risk for owning the United States of America. And so when I say, you know, unprecedented, those are my words. But if you agree with that, I mean, there's, there's got to be a, you know, unprecedented has to equal something. And you know, I guess again, is it policy?
- [14:58]
Subhadra Jap
Yeah, no, I mean, you're seeing a pretty decent pickup rise in term premium. And in this route in the equity market, what you're seeing is investors are fleeing towards bonds or JGBs and that treasury bond spread, Treasury JGB spread is widening out, which is very, very unusual because the safe haven bid typically comes to Treasuries. So we are in a very, very sort of unusual situation this time around. I think we're really playing with fire because ultimately if there is an erratic move in the bond market and yields start going high and start heading towards 5%, it really will roil all the other markets and corporate, corporates, high yield equities, all of the other markets because you know, the treasury market is really the bedrock of the US Financial system. So you really need to see that stability.
- [15:52]
Melissa Lee
Right.
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Dan Nathan
May 7, next Fed meeting, the prediction markets are ticking up on the potential for Jerome Powell to be fired. And you know, that would cause quite a kerfuffle, Tim and so I'm just curious, like how do you think yields would react to that in the 10 year if the president obviously keeps berating, you know, the Fed chair Powell to lower interest rates and that's something that I suspect it's going to go right up until May 7th and depending upon what is said right afterwards, what would that mean for the markets?
- [16:22]
Subhadra Jap
I don't, I don't, I don't view that as a good sign because you know, Jerome Powell has acted as a voice of reason. Even today when Collins, the Boston Fed president, came in and said that they have all the tools to deal with the liquidity crisis, the market immediately reacted. So you know, a steady hand coming from the Fed is going to be very, very important in an environment like this. You're having a lot of changes that you're, that the markets are starting to absorb on the, on the trade and tariff front. The last thing you want to see is a change in leadership in the Fed.
- [16:55]
Melissa Lee
Subwater, thanks for coming by. Appreciate it. SUBHADRA jaffa, Associated General well, the first group of big banks reporting earnings this season this morning, J.P. morgan, Blackrock, Morgan Stanley, all higher after the results while Wells Fargo was down about a percent on the docket next week, Goldman Sachs, bank of America and Citigroup along with regional banks. What can we expect from those names? KAREN well, of course I listened to.
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Karen Feiderman
The JP Morgan call, obviously. Obviously. I mean it was an interesting call. It was a great, great quarter, but that doesn't really matter at all. I mean he talked about the kerfuffle, the uncertainty, right. There was just a very, very tiny increase in non perform on reserves. But that's not any information because that's as of March 30th. Right? They did, he did talk some about hopeful that the deregulation will allow banks to do some of the things they can't do and be able to operate more efficiently. So that would be good for the shareholders that would also allow them to make more loans. But I think it's just uncertainty, there's murkiness out there and I think the stock had just come down too far, was a little bit of relief rally. You know, I think it didn't, you know, bad news would have been bad.
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Melissa Lee
Right.
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Karen Feiderman
It was good news for the quarter, but it was kind of irrelevant. Also. I'm not sure what the read through is. I think if they don't have, who's going to have clarity or even if.
- [18:17]
Melissa Lee
You think you have clarity, I mean.
- [18:18]
Karen Feiderman
Why would you even say you had any clarity?
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Melissa Lee
A theme across the board, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan was, you know, their customers or clients are taking a wait and see approach. And that's sort of what we've heard from every company that has reported so far.
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Karen Feiderman
Yeah. One more thing I want to add. They're going to have enormous trading revenues. But those, those don't get a multiple. Right. Those are kind of a one off thing. But that'll help a little for this current quarter.
- [18:39]
Tim Seymour
Look, we've the most uncertain, it is obvious, I guess. So master the obvious here, but we haven't had this uncertainty in terms of the economy and corporate earnings since COVID And in some sense this is even different because it's, you know, at some point we knew also which sectors were more immediately impacted by Covid. There were obviously a handful of folks that did very well. If you think back to the money center banks and you think how they're positioned for a slowdown, a recession, the first thing you think about with banks is credit. And you think about in some cases, some that have more exposure than others. I mean Citibank, which is a bank along and a bank, I think, you know, prior to all of this had the most to gain by deregulation and rerating, 25% of their exposure really is to credit card and credit card that's not as good as bank of America's for example. So I think there's ways to look at this. I think if you look at money center banks, they have cheapened up quite a bit. I mean they were starting to again, they were starting to rerate. But MoneyCenter banks are, you know, here like one and a half times price to tangible book cheap but you know, not, you know, not that cheap. And we know banks tend to tend to overshoot to the downside.
- [19:40]
Dan Nathan
You know, one last thing, I'll just say, you know, on the deregulation front, for some reason investors kind of sniffed it out that it wasn't going to be as good as expected. Look at the carry. So the regional banking index, it topped out in late November, you know, and it's down 30% since then and really has not rallied a whole heck of a lot over the course of this week. So to be really interesting to me, more so what those banks have to.
- [20:00]
Melissa Lee
Say, we've got a news alert on some new additions to Met his board. Let's go to Kate Rooney who's got the details. Hey Kate. Hey, Mel. So Matter is adding two new board members. We have Patrick Collison, he's the co founder and CEO of Stripe, the privately held fintech and payments giant. And Dina Powell McCormick, she's a former member of the Trump White House. She was the former deputy national security adviser of the U.S. she also spent about 16 years in leadership positions at Goldman Sachs, was a partner there. This is all effective April 15th. Mark Zuckerberg, of course the founder and CEO of Meta saying in a statement that Patrick and Dina bring quote, a lot of experience supporting businesses and entrepreneurs to our board. Meta is up about 12% on the week and I don't see it moving much on this news, Mel, but some some board updates over there for Meta. Back to you. All right, Kate, Thanks. Kate Rooney.
- [20:53]
Karen Feiderman
Karen Yeah, well, Dina, Paul McCormick, that's you know, we talked about Mark Zuckerberg moving right to the right. She's married to Senator McCormick from Pennsylvania and, and worked in the Bush administration many years ago. So that's an interesting pick if that's sort of where they're going.
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Melissa Lee
Right?
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Karen Feiderman
Yeah.
- [21:12]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, GM halting production, laying off workers at an EV plant in Canada. What is behind the move after the break. Plus we're digging for profits after a big call on gold from ubs. The winners in the mining space next. This is Fast MONEY with Melissa Lee right here on cnbc. Every day thousands of Comcast engineers and technologists create connectivity solutions that change the way we work, live and play. Like Kunle, a Comcast engineer who is.
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Subhadra Jap
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Melissa Lee
FI experience today and for the next generation.
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Subhadra Jap
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Tim Seymour
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- [22:57]
Melissa Lee
EY shape the future with confidence. Welcome back to FAST money. Trump's tariff plan taking a toll on automaker stocks this month. Another victim, the workers facing drastic cuts to their UAW profit sharing checks. Phil LaBeau's got the details on this.
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Phil LeBeau
Phil and Melissa, last night the UAW President Shawn Fain said that there would likely be lower profit sharing checks this year. Big surprise. That's because we are expecting the profits of the big three, the traditional big three, to take a hit this year. How much is anyone's guess. But look at the profit pressure that the three automakers are facing. We're talking about gm, Ford and Stellantis tariff costs. We don't know exactly what they are at this point. They will have lower margins. Almost everybody agrees about that. And the industry sales they could drop. Goldman was out with a note this week saying, look, we thought it was going to be 16.3 million vehicles sold in the US this year. We think it's probably going to be closer to 15:4. And I can tell you, Melissa, I've talked with a number of people in the industry who would not be surprised if it drops all the way down to 15 million. Meanwhile, General Motors making news today saying that it is going to halt bright drop van production. This is according to Reuters. That van is built in Canada. They only sold 101 in the first quarter according to the article. And we reached out to General Motors, have not heard back from them. The reason is because of slow sales. Well, let's also be clear here. It's built in Canada. Who knows what the tariff implications are here? So General Motors making that decision, finally take a look at shares of Tesla. It is halting China orders for US Built models. Which models are those? The S and the X. This is not going to have big moves, big implications for the bottom line at Tesla. Yes, they can ship them from here in the US To China, but that's a low volume. Both of those are low volume vehicles, Melissa. But what we're seeing, Melissa, this is what we're going to see in the auto industry. The automakers are picking and choosing. What do we want to continue making somewhere and dealing with the tariffs. If it's low volume or low profit, maybe we put it on pause for a while.
- [25:00]
Melissa Lee
Right, Phil? Thank you. Phil LeBeau. Karen, we were just discussing that in the context of the UBS And Goldman moves on on GM yesterday. How GM in the past has selectively decided which markets to be in and not in based on economics. And this time is no different. Tariffs are changing how you calculate what is profitable.
- [25:20]
Karen Feiderman
Right. And I'm also concerned about how profitable. Right. They have the ability to make a ton of money, we know, in a different market.
- [25:28]
Melissa Lee
Right.
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Karen Feiderman
But I'm concerned not just for them, for all the automakers. It's the complexity of it is astounding to me. Even though we did get a reprieve from some of the usmca, the Canada and Mexico tariffs, but still, it's such a complicated, they're still importing and then we're going to have a consumer who is also really feeling the pinch.
- [25:52]
Melissa Lee
Yeah, right.
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Dan Nathan
What's interesting, so Phil mentioned, you know, China, Tesla, they're not exporting over there. Well, let me just tell you this. I mean most of the cars sold here from Tesla are made here. Right. And a lot of folks thought that this is going to be a company somewhat immune to some of these auto tariffs. Well, you saw this data. We know that their auto sales here for Tesla are bad. In Q1 they were down 9% year over year. But the rest of the industry here in the U.S. was up 11%. So this Chevy for instance, this Equinox, it cost $35,000. The Model 3, this is, you know, Tesla's low end car is between 43,000 and 55,000. So they still don't have a low end car. They have the brand damage here. So I just think it's interesting for some of the folks who are like, well this is going to be somewhat immune. They obviously have a big brand problem in Europe, also in China. And I don't, I just don't know how they fix the one here. I just really don't. And I think that even if he comes back from doge of the company and continues the sort of behavior that he's been kind of, you know, conducting himself in, I just don't think it fixes itself.
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Tim Seymour
Well, yeah, look, as you said, absolute impact in terms of finished vehicle tariffs. Tesla is a big zero. GM is about seven and a half billion. Toyota is the worst, they're about 8.8 billion. So, so Ford is relatively better positioned and I think there will be a classic, you know, let's see how we can kind of slide under our competitors umbrella and be a little bit cheaper and play that way. I think Ford's going have to cut their dividend. If you look at Ford right now, after you know, a little bit of a pullback, but it's a six and a half percent dividend yield. I would not be counting on that. I know nothing. I'm just telling you they paid 3.1 billion last year alone in their dividend expense. And that's something that in this environment, there's no way they can keep it.
- [27:24]
Karen Feiderman
Just won BYD up 25% on the year.
- [27:27]
Melissa Lee
Yeah, that's definitely a winner. There's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next. Stronger for longer. That's the call on gold from ubs. The big winners in the mining space as precious metals soar. Plus, the Chartmaster tells the technical tale.
- [27:46]
Dan Nathan
Of one of the wildest weeks ever.
- [27:48]
Melissa Lee
As we gear up for a pivotal slate of earnings. His top name to watch next.
- [27:53]
Dan Nathan
You're watching Fast MONEY live from the.
- [27:55]
Melissa Lee
Natural DAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this. This episode is brought to you by freshworks AI powered service software that makes work easier and processes less complex. Are you working harder than your software? Uncomplicate your business with fresh service for IT and freshdesk for customer support. Stop wrestling with clunky tools and start focusing on what matters. Delivering exceptional employee and customer experiences that drive ROI in weeks versus years, all with no hidden fees. Start working smarter, not harder, with Freshworks uncomplicated service software. Learn more@freshworks.com auto insurance can all seem.
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- [28:56]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money Shares. A Newmont seeing outsized gains today, riding a five day winning streak and locking in its best week since 1998. Analysts at UBS upgrading the stock to a buy rating, raising the price target to $60 from $50. The firm setting a supportive macro backdrop for gold, which set another record today and positive earnings momentum. Basically. I mean, part of it is the rise in gold needs to be factored in and it hasn't been done. You know, that hasn't been done across the street yet.
- [29:23]
Tim Seymour
It just becomes a mechanical thing. And I think it gives the analyst community a lot of ability to really, you know, get a sexy upgrade around gold miners after it's already had a big move and say, well, what took you so long? But there's, there's more to it than that. It's not just the underlying gold price. It's, it's I think the inflationary environment that actually we had two years ago when gold was also going higher but their cost was going through the moon. I also think that a weaker dollar is very good for gold miners who in many cases around the world have their costs in local currencies and their exports in dollars. So it actually works to the opposite. So I just, look, I'm Long gdx, I'm Long Wheaton, I'm Long Agnico, Eagle and Idevo. I mean there's, I think you can stay long even on this trade. I think you're just starting to break out.
- [30:07]
Melissa Lee
Would you rather right here, right now, Timothy?
- [30:10]
Tim Seymour
Oh, okay.
- [30:11]
Melissa Lee
Timothy.
- [30:11]
Tim Seymour
Am I in trouble?
- [30:12]
Melissa Lee
No. Gold miners or gold itself?
- [30:17]
Tim Seymour
I think gold miners right now because what we've seen is after underperforming the yellow metal for a good part of a year, year and a half, we're starting to see that beta which used to be, it used to be like, you know, 2.2 and again, pick your periods because it will, it will have really underperformed. If you look at the move in gold over the last probably two years, gold miners are breaking out again. These types of upgrades are really important and I think operationally this is part of why you want to own them.
- [30:43]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, a big slate of earnings on deck. Well, the results add to this week's wild ride what the chartmaster is watching right after this. Missed a moment of fast. Catch us anytime on the go follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this. Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks closing higher to finish out one of the wildest weeks in Wall Street's history. The Dow gaining 619points. A relatively calm day after multiple thousand plus point swings already this month. That index and the S and P dodging their best weeks since November 2023. And the NASDAQ closing out its best in more than two years. Nvidia, one of the big winners on the Nasdaq this week. The chip maker up nearly 17% since Monday. Carvana joining the party up 26% and Uber up nearly 12%. Well, the Chartmaster says the market is now at a standoff with earnings season kicking into full year next week. Carter Worth of worth charting joins us now. Carter, what name are you going to be watching next week?
- [31:47]
Carter Worth
Well, we're going to look at Netflix, but let's chat about what this is. The superlatives abound, right? We know we had a one day this week. Wednesday up 9%. Biggest one day move in 17 years. And cast. Of course it was Preceded by one of the worst days going back to the height of the depths of the plunge of COVID This is the nature of volatility. The key is VIX collapsed this week down substantially. In any event, three charts, the S and P here, these are weekly bar charts. This first one has no lines, no drawings. Let's put some in. What we know is the sell off from peak to trough. Seven weeks down and in one week we retraced the entire move to the midway point. So a 50% retracement for those who look at that kind of thing known as Fibonacci. That's what a rally to a difficult level is. Let's put in the trend line that's in effect since this is a one year chart. So a rally back to the penny to the underside of the trend line that we broke on the down week last week. So a standoff begins, I guess what happens. Earnings of course will come along and help resolve some of this because I don't think tariffs are probably that important now. They've been priced in, they're on, they're off. You get a break, you don't, you have 400%. That's kind of not the picture anymore anyway. Other big subjects, of course there's $, there's rates and then maybe we can look at Netflix. But let's see what charts we have. I think the dollar bounces here. This is a very extreme sell off. The love of gold is getting palpable and the sort of admonishment of the dollar equally so I think you take the road less traveled in both reduce your gold and get long dollar for a bounce. The ten year yield. Here we sit. I mean one day it'll have to be resolved. Either we're in a higher rate environment or in a lower rate environment. I'm in the lower camp but obviously a big week to go from four to four and a half percent. Either way I don't think we're off to the race. And if we are going to 5 and 6, keep your shorts in the S and P final chart. Netflix, I mean this just speaks to is anything worth anything? How do you drop 75% and then go 5x up more movies, watch less movies, watch subscriber count, people borrowing passwords, I mean it's insane. But what we know is this is a good uptrend and it's checked back to trend. Green arrow for me. I'm a buyer.
- [33:59]
Melissa Lee
Carter, I'm going to ask you the question that America wants to know the answer to and that Is, do you think, is there reason to hope to believe that, that the S and P has seen its bottom?
- [34:09]
Carter Worth
Yeah, I would suspect it's all a little bit too quick. The de risking process takes time. I'm not seeing it in my incomings, in my meetings about, you know, is, is it time to really back away and de risk aggressively? Most of the questions are just like that. Have we bottomed? It doesn't feel that we've had capitulation.
- [34:30]
Melissa Lee
All right, Carter, thank you. Carter Braxton Worth of worth charting. Interesting that Carter mentions Netflix as a winner on the charts. Is it going to be a winner in earnings? It is a tariff proof business, which is great in this environment.
- [34:44]
Karen Feiderman
Yes. I mean I'm long Netflix. I like everything about Netflix except the valuation which I've just accept it's expensive because it's worth it. But I mean I think they even have, you know, if you want to cut back on your monthly expenses, you can even trade down in Netflix if you're into the ad tier. If you don't have the ad tier, I agree. And it's around the world and I mean they've just clearly, clearly won streaming by so much and they can create, they're in an ecosystem now where they know exactly what you like and so they create hits and they know how to make more hits.
- [35:16]
Dan Nathan
And the EU is threatening tariffs on services. So if you're not discounting that right now, that might be an uncomfortable sort of fact. If you know, with this thing goes further with the eu, just maybe they could pull up the JP Morgan chart. You know, Carter talked about getting to a difficult level. JP Morgan traded brilliantly today. It, you know, opened down right. And then it rallied for the better part of the day. Closed very near the highs. But look where that stock has gotten back to right here. It's at the breakdown level from Liberation Day and it really filled in a gap higher from November after the election. So I think this to 40 level. If you're looking for, you know, leadership or failure of leadership, I think JP Morgan's a really important stock right here.
- [35:58]
Tim Seymour
It's a fascinating day in terms of the question you asked Melissa and you know Michael Hartnett at Bank of America, who's someone I have a ton of respect for his work for a long time, basically saying you're selling rips and that was really kind of the theme of his weekly. There are plenty of people out there that saying that this is, this is in fact the turning point and that, you know, this is a chance to buy in what I'll say is for, for longer terms is, is chaotic as this week was. There are companies that I think will probably look fantastic at these levels out in the future. The question is some of the things that we had to digest this week and we talked about it with, with regard to U.S. yields and dynamics that are really structurally related to both markets and the economy. Those are things that, that, that tend to have people frozen. And I will say that some of the biggest long only accounts in the world, and I mean US Pension funds and I mean they're not doing anything here. So it's not as if those folks are actually beating you to the punch. And I think you can wait this one out a little bit.
- [36:57]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, a potential game changer for drug development. The winners and losers as the FDA moves to end animal testing and how the space will be forced to evolve. That is next. More Fast Money right after this. Welcome back to FAST MONEY Biotech. Rallying today in hopes that an FDA policy change could speed up our R and D and reduce drug development costs. Costs. The agency announcing plans to phase out animal testing for certain drugs, replacing it with other methods like AI drug discovery and organoid testing. The research organizations were initially lower on the news. Most of the stocks also managed to close higher, with Charles River Labs a notable exception. For more, let's bring in Mizuho health care strategist Jared Holds. Jared, great to have you with us. Early on in the morning, you took this announcement, you dissected it and you pointed out some of these companies that provide sort of these, you know, preclinical laboratory services like Charles River. Do you think there is a lasting impact even though a lot of them had reversed?
- [37:58]
Jared Holtz
I do. And thanks for having me. I think the issue here is that with such a kind of protracted effort on the part of, you know, the FDA here, it's going to be very difficult for companies, I think, to manage over the near and medium term as we kind of transition away from these animal models to, you know, AI generated computational models. And so I think the CROs that you, you know, and some of the ones that you highlighted on the screen earlier are definitely susceptible to selling rather than buying just too much uncertainty.
- [38:32]
Melissa Lee
Mm. In terms of the use of, I mean, I think most Americans can imagine that I will speed up drug discovery and reduce costs. Organoids, maybe people aren't so familiar with. Organites are basically small organ like organisms grown from stem cells that mimic the function of different organs like a brain or kidney or a liver, which enables testing in these little Organoids, as opposed to humans, which is obviously much faster and safer. In your estimation, how much will that reduce the cost of drug discovery and how much faster can a drug get to market in your view?
- [39:15]
Jared Holtz
Yeah, I'm not really sure, you know, precisely what the, what the timing is going to be in terms of reducing drugs to market or reducing the development timelines. But I'll say with, with respect to what's happening in the broader world with just introducing, you know, various new technologies with whether it's AI, whether it's the organoid models that we're talking about, part of the reason why I think investors have been so frustrated with biotech and pharma has been the fact that you've got such a long period between concept and getting to the market. That's been one of the gating factors, I think, to broader investment. So even if this is reduced by 20% or 10%, that's a positive. I mean, we're sitting here with pharma stocks at multi year lows. In some cases biotech the same. So even if there's a very modest benefit in terms of timing, the time and the cost that it takes to get drugs to market is just so absurd. I think directionally you have to look at this optimistically.
- [40:22]
Melissa Lee
Right. We got just about a minute, but I do want to get your latest on pharma stocks because I think a couple of days ago you had a note out saying that you see no reason to own them, you would sell them. Do you still feel the same?
- [40:35]
Jared Holtz
I still feel the same. I just think too many pressures. You've got loss of exclusivity, which we know towards the, you know, the latter part of the decade. And further than that, we've got the drug pricing situation with the ira. We've got potential, you know, other pricing dynamics that the government's introducing, plus the tariffs, which we don't really know, you know, when or to what extent they're coming from. And is there enough to buy in the open market to kind of bridge the gap. So I would be selling on strength for pharma for sure.
- [41:04]
Melissa Lee
Jared, great to see you. Thank you.
- [41:06]
Jared Holtz
You too. Thanks.
- [41:07]
Melissa Lee
Jared Holtz. So how are you feeling about your, your Pfizer? Both of your Pfizers?
- [41:12]
Karen Feiderman
Not great. Yeah, it's hard to feel great, but I don't know, I think they reflect just a tremendous amount of negativity.
- [41:21]
Melissa Lee
Yeah, Yeah.
- [41:21]
Tim Seymour
I think the loss of exclusivity and also really just the, you know, Covid. Okay, that was a good time. Now what we talk all the time about the acquisitions they made I think already proven to be solid acquisitions and not insignificant, you know, 25 billion. So the environment is such that I think anything that didn't have real strong advocacy is also, yeah, it's defensive if it's already sold off, but it's also gets pushed around. And I think that's the case in Pfizer.
- [41:47]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, we are swinging away as CNBC Sport reveals its official MLB franchise valuation. Which club tops this year's list? You can find out next. More fast money in two. Welcome back to fast money. CNBC sport releasing its 2025 major league baseball franchise valuations today with some eye popping numbers. The average club worth over two and a half billion and the top team worth more than three times that. Let's go to the bullpen, bring in CNBC senior sports reporter Mike Ozanian. Mike, give us a lowdown here.
- [42:29]
Mike Ozanian
Well, what you have with the Yankees, the reason why they're number one in value is the Yankees and the Dodgers are the only two teams in baseball that generate over $700 million in revenue. No other teams in baseball generate over $600 million in revenue.
- [42:44]
Melissa Lee
Wow. So what accounts for the difference? I mean what are some of the problems?
- [42:47]
Tim Seymour
Well, and I guess Mike, the question is with the Dodgers, they've obviously whole Japan trade for them and the pipeline they've had for some of the most popular players in the world, not just, you know, so, so what has that meant for their top line in terms of the broader business? Not just turnstiles at Dodger Stadium.
- [43:02]
Mike Ozanian
Tremendous. I mean did you guys happen to catch the Dodgers when they were on national TV and it was.
- [43:07]
Tim Seymour
I know Mel did. She calls me every time you see.
- [43:10]
Mike Ozanian
The line to get into the Dodger game. I mean it stretched for, you know, seemed like miles. Look, the Dodgers have the biggest stadium in baseball. They generate the most in ticket revenue. They have the richest local cable TV in baseball. Where other teams are starting to face a decline in cable TV revenue, the Dodgers generated almost $200 million just from their local cable.
- [43:31]
Karen Feiderman
Dodgers fan, I grew up in L. A. Steve Garvey was, you know, Steve Garvey.
- [43:37]
Tim Seymour
Nice.
- [43:37]
Karen Feiderman
I mean, I'm curious though, how much of their budget is talent.
- [43:43]
Mike Ozanian
Oh, tremendous amount you look at as we sit here today. The Dodgers and the Mets are the only two teams in baseball that have payrolls over $300 million. The Yankees are third. I think they're about $280 million. The Yankees can do it because they're very strong across the board, primarily in Sponsorship revenue. The Yankees have by far the most sponsorship revenue in baseball, which shows the power of the brand.
- [44:08]
Dan Nathan
All right, this might be in the weeds, but a few years ago you had the rule change. So the average game dropped what, 30 minutes or so. What does that meant for baseball? Is there less revenue there or more people watching it? What's going on?
- [44:20]
Mike Ozanian
It's helped with viewership of people 30 and under because let's face it, you know, guys like me, I grew up looking at the box score, keeping stats, collecting baseball cards all day long. These people are really into fantasy sports, stuff like that, multi screening, all of that. They want info really fast by the second and they want to look at multiple games as quickly as possible. All the sports, as you know, as a big sports fan, are trying to shorten the game. Even the NBA is talking about it.
- [44:47]
Melissa Lee
Mike, great to see you. Thanks for coming by.
- [44:49]
Mike Ozanian
Thanks for having me.
- [44:50]
Melissa Lee
Mike Ozanian, CBC Sport and calling all you Mets and Yankees fans. Marlin Fans, you're welcome. June 5th is coming up fast. That is the date of our next Fast Money live event. So come join us here at the Nasdaq. Talk about all the wild market action, watch a show, talk to the traders about what they're doing right now, Quiz Guy and Tim on all things baseball, classic, rock, you name it. Get your tickets, scan the QR code on your screen, go to cnbc events.com fast money.
- [45:17]
Tim Seymour
Yeah, we're going to have a Mets versus Yankees tug of war. So jump on whatever team you want. And I think the Mets are going to win again. But you know, Yanks need your help. Come on in.
- [45:26]
Melissa Lee
Up next, final trades. Time for the final trade.
- [45:41]
Tim Seymour
Tim, good as gold has been and miners are breaking out. Gdx. I stay there.
- [45:46]
Melissa Lee
Karen.
- [45:47]
Karen Feiderman
Yes. So, Morgan Stanley, I thought the earnings were good. It's a bit of a different business model that might actually be better suited to where we are right now.
- [45:54]
Dan Nathan
So Ms. Dan, I'm gonna channel my dog Dodger here, Chewy. They source very little price from China. They sell domestic. It looks like it's gonna break out, too.
- [46:05]
Tim Seymour
Fantastic.
- [46:06]
Melissa Lee
How about your cat? Your poor cat. All right, thanks for watching. Fast Mad Money starts now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy. But only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable. But neither CNBC nor its affiliates andor subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer Support for this podcast comes from Progressive, America's 1 motorcycle insurer. Did you know?
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Mike Ozanian
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Melissa Lee
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Mike Ozanian
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Melissa Lee
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