CNBC’s "Fast Money" – Stocks Rally As Trump Calls Off Europe Tariffs… And The Next Fed Chair

Date: January 21, 2026
Host: Melissa Lee
Panel: Steve Rosso, Karen Feiderman, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami
Guest Analysts: Eamon Javers, Carter Braxton Worth, Tony Wong, Steve Liesman, Tom Rogers

Episode Overview

On this episode, the "Fast Money" team unpacks a late-day stock rally triggered by President Trump calling off tariffs on Europe following an announced framework deal over Greenland. The panel analyzes market reactions, the diverging fortunes in tech, notable earnings news (including a deep dive into Netflix’s post-earnings tumble), President Trump's thoughts on the next Federal Reserve Chair, and new policy moves impacting homebuilders. Special attention is given to the shifting landscape in tech, implications for credit card companies, and the ongoing drama surrounding the streaming wars.

Key Discussion Points & Segments

1. Markets Soar on Trump’s Greenland/NATO Deal and Tariff Reversal

Timestamps: [01:02]–[06:19]

• Trigger for Rally: President Trump announces a framework deal with NATO leaders over Greenland and reverses planned European tariffs, sending the Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ all up over 1%. All S&P sectors close green; small caps reach record highs.
• Details Murky: Trump says it’s a “concept of a deal” that’s “complex,” offering no specifics. He claims the deal “will last forever,” but market enthusiasm outpaces clarity.
  • Quote (Trump via Joe Kernan): “It looks like we have pretty much the concept... a deal... but it’s a little bit complex, but we’ll explain it down the line.” [02:58]
• Market Skepticism: The panel notes the lack of substance but recognizes the power of dovish headlines.
  • Guy Adami: “As always, the devil's in the details... Seemingly there was a framework in place from 1951. I don't know how you can do that complex a deal in eight or nine hours.” [05:29]

2. Credit Card Interest Rate Cap Populism

Timestamps: [04:04]–[05:04]

• Presidential Populism: Trump sharply criticizes credit card companies’ high rates, pushes a cap at 10%, aligning himself with left-leaning lawmakers like Elizabeth Warren and NY’s mayor Mandami.
  • Trump (to Joe Kernan): “Credit card companies are getting 28%, 30%. These people don't know they're paying that... I said one year cap of 10% and I love it.” [04:04]
  • Dan Nathan: “This is a president... in full populist mode... even though he understands... he’s going to get criticism as a conservative for doing something that is siding with the left.” [04:27]
• Market Implications: Visa, Mastercard in focus pre-earnings; banks and lenders more directly impacted.

3. Technical Market Analysis: Leadership Shifts and Small Cap Outperformance

Timestamps: [06:19]–[10:20]

• Tech Weakness: Despite market rally, mega cap tech (Microsoft, Meta, Palantir) continues to underperform. S&P breaks below long-term technical uptrend.
  • Dan Nathan: “You think of the banks cooling... look at large cap tech... those are sorts of technical indicators you want to keep a close eye on.” [06:19]
• Small-Mid Cap Surge: Small caps (Russell 2000, SML) outperform as investors rotate into “cheaper” stocks.
  • Karen Feiderman: “The bar is just getting lower and lower... for upside surprises from the Mag 7. They really haven’t behaved very well.” [07:18]
  • Guy Adami: “IWM outperformance... is the longest we've had... people are looking during this earnings season... where's the bang for my buck?” [09:04]

4. Software Sick, Semis Soar — Pairs Trade Opportunity

Timestamps: [10:41]–[14:31]

• Software Lags: IGV (software ETF) underperforms even in a rising market; Microsoft, Oracle sink.
• Carter Worth’s Technical Take: Chartmaster Carter Worth recommends a pairs trade: short semis, long software, betting on convergence as the performance gap is “too far,” irrespective of software’s bleak technicals.
  • Carter Worth: “These two instruments, Coke and Pepsi, McDonald's and Burger King... too far. We're playing for convergence.” [13:30]
• Panel Reaction: Opportunity seen if mega cap tech like Microsoft continues to sell off into earnings, but risks remain elevated on both sides.

5. Deep Dive: AI, Mega Cap Tech & Software Disruption

Guest: Tony Wong, T. Rowe Price Science/Tech Fund
Timestamps: [15:14]–[19:48]

• AI Adoption Is Key: Wong focuses on “agentic AI” and the companies best positioned as true platforms, warning about disruption risks for those offering only narrow features.
  • Tony Wong: “The ability to have all this digital labor... will ultimately benefit a lot of these scaled companies.” [15:50]
  • “You have to be really entrenched... a trusted source. There’s going to be a lot of disruption... as a result of LLMs.” [19:05]
• Nvidia’s Valuation: Wong finds Nvidia “relatively inexpensive,” forecasts long-term upside once recalibration (rotation among semis) completes.
• Software’s Value Proposition: Lowered barriers via AI mean disruption risk is high — only deeply entrenched, enterprise players likely to thrive.

6. Apple and Microsoft Pre-Earnings Setups

Timestamps: [19:54]–[21:27]

• Apple Focus: Important quarter ahead. Concern over margin pressures from chip suppliers; all eyes on possible AI-infused Siri overhaul.
  • Karen Feiderman: “I mean Siri is the worst product. It really is extraordinary.” [20:25]
  • Dan Nathan: “Apple will be a sleeper play... This is the time I think for Apple to really outperform.” [21:08]

7. Homebuilders Rally Despite Weak Pending Home Sales

Timestamps: [22:57]–[26:09]

• Policy Action: Trump restricts Wall Street firms from buying single-family homes but spares homebuilders from direct regulation, sparking a bounce in homebuilder stocks (DR Horton, NVR, Lennar).
• Structural Factors: Existing home sales still anemic; new home sales and related stocks (Home Depot, Lowe’s) benefit from a locked market and corporate buyers retreating.
  • Guy Adami: “Existing home sales are so terrible that new home sales are the only thing in town right now.” [23:46]

8. Quantum Stocks, Ozempic Patent Watch, Nat Gas Spikes

Timestamps: [26:17]–[30:16]

• Quantum Tech: Recent hot names drop; panel sees opportunity as risk-off trade reverses.
  • Guy Adami: “Three years ago we all thought that there was no revenue streams there. This is going to turn around... a lot quicker than most people think.” [29:23]
• Novo Nordisk/Ozempic: Indian competitors to launch generics, dragging shares down — though no surprise in patent expiry.
• Natural Gas: Another day of wild price spikes due to cold snaps and surging demand.

9. The Next Fed Chair: Trump Mulling Choices

Timestamps: [30:41]–[35:02]

• Trump’s Comments: Indicates Kevin Hassett likely out; contenders are Kevin Warsh and Rick Rieder, with Rieder gaining odds. Considers keeping Scott Besson at Treasury.
  • Trump (on Hassett): “He's so good on television... I don't want to lose him.” [30:53]
• Market Preference: Debate over who markets would favor; concerns about Fed independence surface.
  • Steve Liesman: “Maybe [Warsh is] too hawkish... Rick Rieder would be a better choice according to some people on Wall Street.” [31:30]
  • Karen Feiderman: “I actually think the market might like Kevin Warsh... There's the bond market and the stock market and those don't necessarily move the same way.” [35:18]

10. Netflix: Earnings, Warner Bid, and Long-term Threats

Guest: Tom Rogers, Media Analyst
Timestamps: [35:57]–[42:30]

• Stock Slides Despite Beat: Analysts blame Netflix’s rumored Warner Brothers bid, not fundamentals.
  • Tom Rogers: “Netflix wins when it comes to long form entertainment. Whether it does the Warner deal or not, the story is fully intact.” [36:42]
• Margin Strength, Engagement Recovery: Netflix posts 30%+ margins, shows resilience in programming (“Squid Games,” “K-Pop”).
• Threats Emerge: Major concern is not Disney but short-form video, user-generated and, especially, professional AI-generated content, which could drastically cut content costs and democratize production.
  • Rogers: “AI content... can take what are today huge hundred million dollar movies... and maybe reduce their cost... to $10 million. That works against Netflix’s competitive advantage.” [38:04]
• Panel Views: Everyone agrees Netflix is still a long-term winner but must navigate a fast-evolving landscape.

11. Target—Political Crosshairs, No Clear Path Forward

Timestamps: [42:50]–[45:39]

• Protests & PR Trouble: Target stock buffeted again by store protests over ICE, no-comment stance creates a lose-lose scenario. Panel reflects on how political activism is inescapable for modern corporate America.
  • Karen Feiderman: “I feel bad for CEOs. They're damned if they do, they're damned if they don't...”
  • Guy Adami: “No statement is better than a statement. The country is fractured 50/50. You're going to offend half your clientele.” [45:15]

Notable Quotes & Moments

• Carter Worth’s Pairs Trade: “These two instruments... are too far. We're playing for convergence.” [13:30]
• Tony Wong on AI and Work: “English is kind of the new coding language... it's going to really change how people think about work.” [18:03]
• Tom Rogers on AI-Created Content: “It democratizes the ability to create great content and takes it well beyond those who have these enormous program budgets.” [40:22]
• Panel on Market Rotations: “Small caps still have done... well today. I think... the move is predicated [on hope for] rollback of a lot of regulation.” (Rosso) [10:20]
• On Fed Independence: “The bond market might enjoy [Warsh] because the independence of the Fed won't be challenged.” (Rosso) [33:01]

Top Timestamps for Key Segments

• [02:39] – Eamon Javers on Trump’s Greenland/Tariff Deal
• [04:04] – Trump’s Comments on Credit Card Rates
• [06:19] – Mega Cap Tech Weakness, S&P Technicals
• [09:53] – Small Cap Market Dynamics
• [13:30] – Carter Worth’s Semis vs. Software Pair Trade
• [15:34] – Tony Wong on AI in Tech Investing
• [22:57] – Homebuilders, Housing Policy Impact
• [30:53] – Trump on Next Fed Chair
• [35:57] – Netflix Earnings Deep Dive, with Tom Rogers
• [42:50] – Target’s Ongoing Political Headache

Tone & Style

The episode retains Fast Money’s energetic, conversational tone, with panelists offering honest, occasionally humorous takes and respecting a wide spectrum of financial perspectives. Melissa Lee keeps the discussion fast-paced and focused on actionable intelligence, with ample technical, policy, and macro insights.

Summary Takeaways

• The market remains headline-driven: Presidential statements, even with scant details, can move indices sharply.
• Political populism on rates and housing policy is impacting sector bets (banks, builders, fintech).
• Technical and fundamental divergences abound as former leaders falter and neglected segments shine.
• The tectonic shift in tech is about disruption risk—AI adoption, platform moats, and creative destruction are the central themes.
• Corporate America cannot avoid the political sphere, but neutrality may be the safest course.

Recommendation for Investors:
Stay nimble—rotations can be swift; technicals matter. Pairs trades (semis vs. software), rotations into value and small-caps, and vigilance over political/policy risks are warranted. Long-term, pick entrenched platforms in tech, be wary of content/creative industries ripe for AI disruption, and watch for ongoing fallout from populist policy shifts.