← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
Stocks Retreat From Records… And Bitcoin’s Fresh Record 7/11/25
00:43:51
Stocks close out the week pulling back from record highs. How President Trump’s latest tariff escalations hit markets, and how a number of catalysts next week could fuel the recent rally, or pressure stocks to the downside. Plus Crypto cruising higher, as Bitcoin surges to fresh record highs. Why one Bitcoin bull sees the token heading to $1 million. Fast Money Disclaimer
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Courtney Reagan
As America's leading business lender, bank of.
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Tim Seymour
America is on your corner and in your corner.
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Courtney Reagan
With $215 billion in business loans and over 3,700 business specialists across the nation.
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Tim Seymour
We help businesses thrive so communities prosper. What would you like the power to do? Learn more@bankofamerica.com LOCALBUSINESS bank of America Official.
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Courtney Reagan
Bank of FIFA Club World Cup 2025 Copyright 2025 bank of America Corporation.
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Tim Seymour
All rights reserved. What does it mean to live a rich life? It means brave first leaps, tearful goodbyes and everything in between. With over 100 years experience navigating the ups and downs of the market and of life, your Edward Jones financial advisor will be there to help you move ahead with confidence. Because with all you've done to find your rich, we'll do all we can to help you keep enjoying it. Edward Jones Member, SIPC Live from the NASDAQ marketsite in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast money. Here is what's on tap tonight. Markets pulling back from records. But with a big week of earnings and inflation data on deck, how should you set up for the weekend? The traders lay out their playbooks and a bitcoin bonanza, the crypto breaking new ground this week. But can the rally keep rolling on? We'll talk to one insider to find out. Out. Plus, hi ho silver, the precious metal outperforming gold this year. How much more upside is there? Oil and oil stocks jumping today? Is the long struggling group really turning a corner and we're counting down to Netflix results. What to expect from the streamer when it releases earnings next week. I'm Courtney Reagan and this evening for Melissa Lee coming to you live from Studio B at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight we have Tim Seymour, Bono and Eisen, Mike Coe and Julie Beal. But we will start with the markets taking a breather from their record setting. Wrap rallied the S and P dipping into the red for the week after President Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canada and threatened higher levies across the board. The index as well as the Nasdaq had set all time highs though just yesterday. Still, Big Tech were some of the biggest leaders since Monday. You've got AMD Palantir intel powering the gains and of course Nvidia solidifying its hold on that $4 trillion club. It's a lot of zeros. The chip giant adding another 20 billion to its market cap today. Further, its leader, Microsoft in the number two spot. Nvidia nearly doubling from Its lows of the year. But with this week in the books we turn to a slew of new market catalysts on deck. We're going to get earnings from big banks, airlines. We did get Delta already, consumer staples, streamers and more. All of this on the calendar. And fresh reads on inflation and growth with cpi, ppi, jobless claims and consumer sentiment also out next week. So will next week give markets more reasons to rally more or have stocks hit a wall? Tim, I know we took a bit of a breather today but all time.
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Bono
Highs, yes, we were breathless before this.
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Tim Seymour
We were out of breath. We need a break. Right. But it doesn't feel like a record setting time. I mean look at all these cross currents, geopolitical tensions, slower growth. We're still dealing with stubbornly high inflation. We're slapping tariffs on everybody. Can we continue to push through the tension?
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Bono
Well, there's no question that if, you know we've got a couple options guys here that know a lot more about volatility than I do. But if you look at at least the ABSO measures of volatility out there, it's kind of shocking to have been sub 16 on the Vix. You know going into yesterday with what's going on politically, what's going on with tariffs, what's going on around the world and also what we're seeing from gold and what we're seeing from bitcoin. Those, those aren't happening in a vacuum. Those are happening as a function of. And that's why there's so many crosscurrents this week including look, we had two great treasury auctions actually. The treasury should be really happy. I believe they're talking about even a surplus coming in from tariffs and whatnot. But again, long end currency, excuse me long into the bond curve had some, some great auctions this week. I think if you think about earnings for next week, I believe investors are going to continue to pay up for growth. Now in the banking space it's not as if you're talking about tech stocks but I do think there are places where you actually will see more versus less growth next week. But, but ultimately again I think the leadership we've seen from Sammy's is interesting. Another theme this week was Semi's outperforming software. That was a trade that was probably 150 basis points to the favor of semis again today. So investors are evaluating the places they have confidence in their growth and the places they're probably overpaying for it.
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Tim Seymour
Bona, what do you make of where we could be looking next week. We do have a lot of banks reporting financials though. The worst group of the day, albeit, though just down 1%.
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Mike Coe
I mean I think it's, it's a net positive for all the things as you said, essentially we've had all these macroeconomic headwinds. There have been some recent tailwinds, a reversal of what were formerly headwinds. And I think you'll get some quantitative data next week that actually support what whether or not you can continue to kind of march higher. So I think rather than it being more of a speculative on or risk off situation driven by macro, driven by the Fed, I think you actually get to see whether or not corporate earnings are supportive of the heightened multiples that we find ourselves back in. The last point I'll make is you mentioned it doesn't really feel like we're at an all time high. But I think that there's two things as you have two juxtaposing factors. You have the fact that we're only up, what is it, 6% or so year to date. But if you look at our April lows, that rally has really felt like a, really a risk on a reshoring of capital, reshoring of, of manufacturing and those tailwinds that have kind of led people into some of the, into some of the US domestic stocks as well as international. But I think it's those two things that kind of pose a bit different thesis or a bit different narrative around how you feel about the market reaching its all time highs.
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Tim Seymour
That's a good point. I mean, Mike, when we do think about the April lows and where we are from now, I mean, my goodness, the market just sort of says tariffs, yeah, bring them on, right? I mean maybe, maybe it is the taco trade, I don't know. But thinking where we were on April 3rd versus where we are now, should we be here and can we keep going higher?
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Courtney Reagan
So the move that we saw I think is probably one of the most pronounced over a period of that time. You know, basically since Tim and I have been in the business, so I think on both hands we could probably count the amount of times that we've seen 20% rallies in such a short period. You know, one of the things I would certainly say is we've had better than expected inflation data on the last few prints. PPI is going to be interesting next week because PPI is going to lead really the core inflation. And so it's going to be interesting to see how that plays out. But so far so Good. The only thing that gives me a little bit of pause is if you're going to look at, you know, price is truth, I kind of would have expected financials to do a little bit better today if people were anticipating a good PPI print next week. Because then you would be anticipating some steepening of the yield curve that's typically going to be good for financials. On the other side though, the moves that we're seeing out of names like in video, those are long duration trades typically these are the growth names, as Bono1 was pointing out. You know, you're going to start seeing people bid for this, this as long as we get decent growth numbers. And as far as this, you know, the balance, the fiscal balance, I thought that was kind of interesting. But it's not huge. Of course, you know, we're talking about a $60 billion swing. We were looking for what I think a $30 billion deficit. We got a $30 billion surplus. In the context of a, context of a seven and a half trillion dollar budget, is that so huge? But it is trending in the right way. We in financial services, we tend to like to look at trends right in the early stages. Is it moving in the right direction? That's moving in the right direction. If we can keep inflation under control, we see revenues a little bit better than expected. That's good. On balance.
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Tim Seymour
You seem a little doubtful, Tim.
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Bono
Well, no, I was just going to have a. Something mom says if you have nothing nice to say that and I think with banks, they've had such a great run, you know, it's hard to really feel as if even a small pullback is, is indicative of anything more than that. I think what we will get from banks is some sense that their core business, their sales and trading business. I think we're all kind of waiting to hear a little bit about what's going on in M and A and the investment banking world because it's part of what I think we've been seeing more broadly themes within this market. I think you've got a case with copper prices and what, what's going on with oil. There's some interesting stuff going on in the commodity markets, which at some point is ppi heavy and not great. In the short run, I think it's been great for copper miners and even oil names that are oversold.
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Tim Seymour
Yeah, energy was good today and obviously crude, the commodity itself higher, most, the commodities higher, except for copper, I think down just a touch. But Julie, what do you make of sort of where we are in the broader market what you hope to hear next week out of potential cpi, ppi, even the banks, we all listen a lot when Jamie Dimon talks. What are you looking for as a potential catalyst to and moves?
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Julie Beal
Well, I think Jamie Dimon was actually talking today about the complacency that he sees in the market and that is something that I'm really paying a lot of attention to. When I think about higher beta cyclical stocks that really seem to be outperforming, it really does feel like a performance chase for people who got a little bit left behind earlier in the year. And that makes me a little bit worried because then it's not really supported by the fundamentals. So for sure I'm looking a lot at what Jamie Dimon and the banks are going to say about the credit quality and any of the loan loss reserves that they're having to take. Already hearing a little bit at the margin that the weaker companies are starting to move their loans into payment in kind, which is not great. That's not a great sign. And we already have 30% of student loans officially delinquent. So the credit quality is something that we've all kind of taken comfort in. The balance sheet is being pretty good. But I'm worried that under the hood there are some cracks starting to form.
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Tim Seymour
Bonwin, I want to ask you about Nvidia and obviously coming back into this $4 trillion mark. It's impressive to say does it mean anything? Does it sort of spark new momentum going forward?
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Mike Coe
It's, it's scary to say, right. If I'm being frank, trillion dollars. I mean particularly considering you look at the, you know, the other mag7 names like this is head and shoulders above. I try to put that in context though. So I think in the old guard I would say 4 trillion. Perhaps you're looking to take profits here just because of the, the run up and the overall valuation. But I think when you put it under the lens of listen, AI is opening up and unlocking a different market. I think when you put it under that lens, I think it's slightly less intimidating. I think under the hood though, the move that we've seen is indicative on AI once again kind of leading us to new highs. And to the other, you know, my other, my other panelists, brothers, BFFs, you.
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Bono
Know, let's do brothers.
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Tim Seymour
Yeah, I like that.
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Bono
I'd rather be a brother than a panelist.
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Tim Seymour
I like that too.
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Bono
So much better with the name Tim.
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Mike Coe
My other brother set. It's okay to their point. You know this, this AI This I reinvestment is really what's led us higher. And if you talk about what you're willing to pay for at already stretched valuations, you want to make sure there's a growth aspect there. If across the board you're already paying.
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Tim Seymour
A premium multiple, yeah big we for Nvidia. Also, Jensen Huang, of course, going to the White House wearing his signature jacket. Someone said, hey, I think that suggests.
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Bono
He'S more kind of warm leather this time of year is isn't it, you know, but I guess it's some people are into that if you're just a little swarmy.
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Tim Seymour
But you know, if you're Johnson Wong, you do what you want. You do you man. Well, the White House threatening more tariffs today. Speaking of the White House, CNBC's Megan Gasli does have the latest for us. Megan, what's going on?
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Megan Gasli
Hey, Courtney. So multiple moving pieces here as ever, right? The first threat today, a higher 35% tariff on all imports from Canada, which is our second largest trading partner. That's up from the 25% tariff level in place now. But you can see here all the different tariffs Canada is now facing. I'm told the exemption for USMCA compliant goods and the lower energy tariff are likely to remain in place, but I'm also told no decisions on this have yet been finalized. The president also separately, the second threat told NBC he's considering increasing the universal baseline tariff from 10% to as high as 20%. And that would be a major escalation here, although of course one that's not yet set in stone. Then separately, we also got new treasury data out today and that showed us a steep rise in revenue coming in from tariffs. It was about 27 billion collected in customs duties last month. But interestingly, corporate tax revenue is falling at the same time. And treasury says that's due to firms anticipating more favorable provisions in the president's mega bill that just passed. So while tariff revenue was up $20 billion last month versus the same month a year ago, corporate taxes were down $14 billion. So we'll have to watch that trend to see how things level out. And then finally, one more thing here. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told the Wall Street Journal in a new that all of these latest tariff threats could spark fresh concerns about inflation. And he says that in turn could force the Fed to stay on hold rather than cut rates the way the president wants. So an instance here of the president's threat sort of backfiring on a different part of his agenda.
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Tim Seymour
Courtney Meghann thank you very much. Thanks for joining us with the latest. Hopefully the president gives you a little bit of a break. It's Friday after all. Well, let's bring in Peter Bookbar. Appreciate Megan joining us. He is the Chief Investment Officer of Bleakley Financial Group. He's also a CNBC contributor. Peter, thanks for joining us, Megan. Megan brought up a number of good points. I guess the first one I'd love to ask you about is Austan Goolby Goolsbee's concerns about what's going on with tariffs and if an increase in tariffs will also potentially lead to new inflation. We get PIE and CPI out next week. Are you concerned about that all or do you think we sort of quelled this beast somehow some way?
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Peter Bookbar
For now, we have not quelled this beast. Also of importance next week is import prices because import prices are sort of the first touch of those tariffs. In April, import prices ex food and energy rose 510 month over month. It may it rose another 4 10. So that's actually the number that I'm specifically watching for. The key with inflation right now is inflation is here. With tariffs, it's just a question of who eats it. Those companies that have pricing power means that consumers are going to eat it. Those companies that do not have pricing power means that companies are going to eat it via a cut in their profit margin. And we saw that clearly with what conagra and Helen of Troy said yesterday. Helen of Troy said this summer they are raising consumer prices 7 to 10% now, whether it sticks or not we'll have to see. But they're going to try to. On the other hand, conagra has much less pricing power and they said their costs between commodity and labor inflation, in addition to steel and aluminum, in terms of their packaging, their costs are going up 7%. So the inflation's here. It's just a question of where it is along the supply chain and, and.
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Tim Seymour
Who can handle it. I mean, we also heard from Levi yesterday and they basically said look, we can mitigate almost all of this. I think they only plan for maybe a 2 to 3% increase. And they said they if they raise prices it will only be on some select items. So then doesn't that sort of start to separate the winners from the losers? Maybe it's not a one paintbrush sort of paints everyone the same color dollar.
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Peter Bookbar
Exactly. It's the pricing power aspect that will determine whether one's margins suffer or whether the consumer's pocketbook suffers. But Levi's that's able to absorb it. Well there's somebody else in the supply chain that can't and that Levi's is pushing back against. So someone is still eating that tariff along the Levi support supply chain, but because of their presence in apparel, they're able to push it off onto somebody else.
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Bono
Peter is. And it was, it was a fascinating week because of course when we get the Vietnam tariffs, we, you know, we had a conversation around here with a top ranked analyst who said, you know what, I don't love the number, but it's actually a relief. It's a relief because actually and we also have the ability to model out and some of that. But you spend a lot of time focused on commodities. You spend on, you know, global macro that often dictates, I think your investment themes, picking stocks and bottom up is copper meaningless us because I think for people that aren't focused on this, it could just be a lot of noise listening to LME squeezes and things that are going on with shipments, you know, but, but, but copper prices have such a major input component and that's independent. Even before we talked about tariff squeeze. Are you worried about that? And again, if we look at commodities and we look at what's going on with base metals and industrial metals, prices are going higher.
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Peter Bookbar
Exactly. And just to quantify that, because I just checked, as of today's close, the CRB Raw Industrials index rose to match its level last seen in March of this year, which was the highest level since January 2023. And it's not just copper silver as you had on the screen before, highest level since 2011. Platinum is up about 30% over the past couple of months. So there is a global rise in industrial metals. And I can't argue that there's this big spurt of demand. It's people trying to get their hands on this metal, these metals ahead of potential tariffs and understanding that these critical minerals are very important in now a growing multipolar world where everyone tries, wants to have their own stash of it. But unfortunately, whether it's demand or not, it's still higher prices that's going to flow through the inflation stats. Again, whether it's eaten by the consumer or not, it's still going to flow through the supply chain. And to Goolsbee's comment, yeah, he wants to see how this plays out as do other members on the Fed.
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Tim Seymour
Peter, thank you very much for joining us. Peter Bock, bar Obliquely Financial Group. You are of course chief investment adviser and also CNBC contributor. Julie, what do you make of Peter's comments? He seems a little bit more worried about inflation than some others.
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Julie Beal
I'm absolutely with him. And I think the biggest problem that we have is that many companies were really thoughtful about their inventory and they waited until the right time to bring it in. And so they're sitting on a fair amount of inventory that they don't necessarily need to price higher. But like we saw with Prime Day, many companies decided not to really participate that much in Prime Day because that inventory that isn't tariff is pretty valuable to them. So I actually worry that for now, PCE is not going to be that meaningful. It's much further on before we're really going to know that tariffs have hit us. I think it's going to be a much slower burn, a little bit like the frog dipped into the boiling water.
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Bono
Lovely.
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Tim Seymour
Oh yeah, that sounds tasty, Mike. You know, I was thinking about CPI earlier today and it felt like before everyone had the CPI date sort of pinned on their calendar and the market was almost hanging on that. We're past that at least, are we not?
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Courtney Reagan
No, I think we are. You know, like I said before, I think PPI is more meaningful. It's a forward look basically on what CPI would be and also core pce, which is actually going to be the Fed's preferred measure. You know, one of the things we have certainly seen from sellers is that even if they were going to have tariffs imposed, they were willing to suspend price increases for a little bit of time because they thought that there might be some negotiation going on on the back end. And so I think Julie's point is a very good one, which is that there is an impact. We don't really know when it's going to hit because everybody's sort of playing this game about am I going to impose, you know, higher prices because I have higher costs or am I going to kind of wait it out a little bit? And we don't really know because the tariffs themselves were delayed so many times. So it's a little chicken egg thing going on right now.
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Tim Seymour
Tim, before we wrap this up, what do you think will be the biggest driver between now and August 1st, if that's the deadline that stays?
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Bono
I think the China deals are important and it's been kind of, it's always been taken as a given that the China deal does get done. I think we, I believe equities have taken the view that the Fed's posture is more dovish since this last meeting and that they are more tolerant of higher inflation. Everything we're having an inflation fear conversation so once again, I think the Fed is critical. I think the headlines are critical. Remember, we're going into an earnings season where companies didn't need to tell you anything. Are we going to let them do that again? I'm not sure.
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Tim Seymour
Fair enough. That's right. We sort of were okay if they didn't give guidance or suspended guidance. And now we want a little bit more than that. Well, coming up, Levi's buttoning up a big day of gains thanks to a monster earnings beat and upped guidance. More on that, Jean. Giants move ahead. Plus silver going for gold in the metals trade. What's behind the recent surge and where it goes from here. That's up next.
- [20:20]
Courtney Reagan
You're watching Fast MONEY here on cnbc. We'll be right back. How will you shape the future of industrials with confidence? Whether you need to define your strategy, optimize your supply chain or keep pace with data driven manufacturing, Ey professionals understand industrials and the sectors they supply, bringing the insights that deliver real outcomes with a full spectrum of services. EY helps strengthen your business from factory floor to product development and beyond. So when the global market shifts, your business is agile enough to adapt. EY Shape the future with confidence.
- [21:03]
Tim Seymour
On WhatsApp, your personal messages stay private between you and whoever you send them to. So things like the passport numbers for your honeymoon stay between you and your fiance. And that video call for your gran's 80th stays in the family.
- [21:17]
Megan Gasli
Even your streaming password stays between you.
- [21:19]
Tim Seymour
And your college roommates who still ask for it every week in your group chat. Because on WhatsApp, your personal messages are yours. No one else can see or hear them, not even us. WhatsApp message privately we quilt this city.
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Courtney Reagan
We quilt this city with a comfy.
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Tim Seymour
Roll with quilted Northern to be specific.
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Courtney Reagan
So cushy and so flashy. Just give it a try. Feeling is believing.
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Tim Seymour
Quilted with three cushy layers for your comfort.
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Courtney Reagan
The quilted comfort of Quilted Northern.
- [21:59]
Tim Seymour
We know what's comfy. And now you do too. Keep it quilted with quilted Northern. Welcome back to Fast Money. Levi Strauss surging 11% to a 52 week high today. The move coming on the back of better than expected sales and profit numbers for the latest quarter. The denim giant also raising full year guidance saying it's confident in earnings growth even as it absorbs the cost of tariffs to avoid avoid raising prices. She tried to say higher by 11% had quite a day. And meantime, Amazon wrapping up its prime day sales event today. Still going on a couple hours left the event expanded from two days to four this year with one early report at least suggesting first day sales were down more than 40% from 2020. For still, Morgan Stanley today raised its price target on the stock, 300 bucks from 250 stating more manageable tariffs could lead to growth for the retailer. That's about 33% upside from here. And yeah, definitely mixed reports on what we're getting from the Amazon prime day. It's still underway, so a little, a little hard to say, but it looks like people are buying. Buying essentials from what I could see from what those best.
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Bono
Well, I think that's right and I like Amazon both because I think I'm getting that E commerce business for free and because I think some of the trends and the comps are actually pretty low.
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Tim Seymour
But you buy it for the aws, is that what you're saying?
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Bono
Yeah, I think you do. And I think AWS is going to be all we really care about mostly. But I think the Levi's numbers were the ones that were the most surprising to me. I have to tell you that there have been times over the last couple of years where I've scratched my head on the valuation on this one. And they first of all, the organic growth in the Americas that they saw was beyond what the street expected. They essentially doubled what the top line of the street had expected, which was extraordinary. And you could see by the reaction it was a stock that had corrected significantly after having an incredible run out of that IPO whenever that was. And you know, I know Mike wears jean on jean a lot.
- [23:52]
Courtney Reagan
So you know, jean jacket, jean shirt, jeans. Yeah, the whole thing. That's right.
- [23:57]
Tim Seymour
He's not even a Canadian. Pull off the Canadian text know he could do.
- [24:00]
Bono
It's not just be careful.
- [24:03]
Tim Seymour
No, I know it. I love it. I love who does it back.
- [24:05]
Courtney Reagan
Acid wash.
- [24:06]
Bono
Yes.
- [24:07]
Tim Seymour
But actually in all seriousness, Levi did sort of get a nice little boost from the Beyonce songs and then Beyonce became officially sort of a part of the company's marketing campaigns. But when I've spoken with the CEO, she said look, it doesn't hurt when you get Beyonce making a song called Levi wearing the Levi's on tour. And so I think they're also riding this cultural moment. But Mike, what you doing are what I'm wondering about Levi versus maybe some other retailers is do you want going forward to own a brand or the retailer that aggregates and sells the brand like a Target, a Walmart and Amazon that all basically sell a version of Levi?
- [24:41]
Courtney Reagan
So I mean with respect To Levi, the thing that I like to see here is that their top, this is what Tim was just talking about. But their top line revenue growth actually was better than GDP. They're probably going to look at 10 to 12% adjusted EPS growth and they have probably a free cash flow yield that's north of 5% for full year next year trading at what, 15, 16 times, something like that.
- [25:02]
Bono
It's not expensive now.
- [25:03]
Courtney Reagan
So I wanted to clarify that. I wasn't saying it's expensive and actually that's the thing. I mean you were looking at it because you're saying this is a cheap stock and it was cheap in a world where you didn't think they were going to have more than 4% last 12 month revenue growth. Right. So if it was a good number when you still thought they were going to do like two and a half and they do four one, then clearly you could say okay, I think 16 times is still a good number and it's cheap compared to so many other things. Target, that's a name that I'm always kicking the tires because it just looks cheap. But they struggle on execution, don't they?
- [25:32]
Tim Seymour
Yeah, there's a big conversation to be had there for sure. Julia, I want to make sure to get you in. I mean first of all, are you into the wide leg denim trend or are you still rocking the skinny jeans?
- [25:42]
Bono
What do you think?
- [25:43]
Tim Seymour
I cannot give up my skinny leg jeans even though I'm very uncool for that.
- [25:48]
Julie Beal
The skinnies are coming back but it sounds like they did super well with the wide leg dad jeans and the quiet western. Did you know quite Western was a thing?
- [25:55]
Tim Seymour
I didn't, I did sort of. I'm sort of a country person so I did.
- [25:59]
Bono
Sure.
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Tim Seymour
But anyway, what do you make of the trade I guess on Levi's and Amazon too because you get a lot more than just the retail business when you're looking at Amazon.
- [26:07]
Julie Beal
Yeah, I think on Levi I think it's clearly the company deciding that they're moving away from wholesale. They want to control their brand and they have a lot of opportunity and, and big margin targets and this today was a good move towards that and I think that's the excitement. Amazon, I agree with Tim, like this is about us. I think prime day is just not that important. The E Commerce is not really that important. What's really important is what happens business to business for them.
- [26:32]
Tim Seymour
Fair enough. Well there is a lot more fast still to come. Here's what's coming up next.
- [26:38]
Courtney Reagan
Silver Surge. We're mining the metals trade for big gains, the action behind the recent move, and whether this commodity has the job juice to go for gold next. Plus, we're all in on the crypto craze as bitcoin hits yet another record. Has this space reached escape velocity? You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this. How will you shape the future of the technology sector with confidence? Tech is at an AI powered inflection point, facing innovation cycles that accelerate every day. EY brings a full spectrum of services that help enterprise giants manage fragmented data, telcos minimize disruption and media companies monetize connected experiences. In a world where every company is a tech company, EY delivers real outcomes to those that build the systems on which enterprises run EY shape the future with confidence.
- [27:42]
Tim Seymour
Quilted Northern is quilted with three cushy layers for your comfort.
- [27:46]
Courtney Reagan
The quilted comfort of.
- [27:50]
Tim Seymour
Keep it quilted with Quilted Northern. Welcome back to fast money. Silver hitting its highest level in nearly 14 years and the precious metal is actually outperforming gold this year. Are there more gains to come for the already glittering trades? NBC's Pippa Stevens joins us to make a case for this commodity. Hi Paper. Good to see you. Hey Courtney.
- [28:12]
Megan Gasli
Well, gold and copper get all the glory, but silver has been quietly outperforming, hitting its highest level since 2011 as market fundamentals remain tight. Now, several tailwinds here are supporting prices. Heavy speculation the gold market drove up those prices, making silver relatively more attractive, especially since the gold to silver ratio is well above historical norms. According to Alpine Macro, silver also benefits from being both a precious metal and an industrial commodity, with the latter making up some 60% of demand. Demand Silver is key for many energy transition technologies. Demand from solar panels jumped more than 60% last year and is forecast to keep growing. Silver is also used in EVs and wind power as well as electrical equipment to power data centers. Supply is also pretty inelastic given that less than one third of mining is primary production. Now in terms of exposure, the largest miner is Mexico's Fresnillo, followed by Poland's KGHM. Glencore, Southern Copper, Newman and BHP also have silver operations and the silver miners ETF ticker sale hit a 4 1/2 year high today on the back of silver's surge.
- [29:19]
Tim Seymour
Courtney, thanks. But yeah, that's an interesting chart there when you actually look at it Tim, from 2024 to 2025 and Silver just sort of making this move higher still. Money to be made.
- [29:29]
Bono
I Think in, in speculative fervor, we tend to see silver outperform. And I think we're, we're there, we're there in PGMs. And I also think platinum and palladium look really interesting here. I think I love gold. I've always loved gold. And I think it's, you know, when you hear stuff from the ecb, which we heard, I think it was about two weeks ago, maybe it was a month ago, but they, they pointed out that that bullion is the number two reserve currency in their central bank reserves. And this is what central banks are doing. It's not just the Chinese. It's not just suddenly people want to run away from the United States. I think the US the dollar remains reserve currency for the foreseeable. And that means my lifetime and beyond. I just think gold remains a place where people feel comfortable. And we've had this conversation. You can find a bull market for gold under almost any pretense. And that's one of the best 20 year charts out there.
- [30:16]
Tim Seymour
Julie, what do you think of the commodity trade? Is there something there for you?
- [30:20]
Julie Beal
You know, we tend not to be so geared up towards the commodity trades because it's just, it's really hard to find any kind of competitive advantage in here. But what I do think is really interesting is that there is a clear sticker shock for many people with gold in terms of the jewelry side of the business, where it just has gotten to a point where to set something really simple in gold is not happening. And you're seeing more and more jewelers setting precious stones, which they never did in silver. I think that could grow and expand particularly as consumers are really looking for places where they can find value.
- [30:53]
Tim Seymour
Now that's something I'd like to explore the trade and the market for jewelry. Mike, what do you make of the commodity space right now? The we've seen.
- [31:01]
Courtney Reagan
Well, I mean, I like gold. For a while I definitely didn't understand why platinum and silver were basically underperforming for so much. Silver is still underperforming gold over the last year by about 15, 16%. One of the things that we saw on the option side is that, you know, we Talk about skew, I.e. the price of upside calls versus the price of downside puts. And if you compare where that is today versus a week ago today, the puts are actually down, the calls are up. It indicates that in the options world, at least for things like slv, the ETF that tracks silver, you know, the bid for the upside remains.
- [31:35]
Tim Seymour
Fascinating stuff. Well, Coming up, bitcoin breaking records. The crypto currency hitting fresh record highs today above 118,000. What it means for space bracing itself for a pivotal decision in Washington. More on that is coming up.
- [31:56]
Courtney Reagan
Missed a moment of fast. Catch us anytime on the go follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.
- [32:12]
Tim Seymour
Welcome back to FAST money. Stocks taking a breather from the record rally as tariff and trade tensions take another turn. The dow falling nearly 300 points. The S and P losing a third of a percent in the NASDAQ breaking a three day win streak. Streak down 45 points. Boeing getting a boost after hours after a preliminary probe into the crash of a 787 in India recommended no changes for the manufacturers and operators of the aircraft's engine. And Kraft Heinz jumping on a Wall Street Journal report that the company is eyeing a spinoff of its grocery business thought to be valued up to $20 billion. Mike, any action in the options market on this one? Sometimes around deals you see big spikes.
- [32:49]
Courtney Reagan
Move and we got a big spike. So this thing normally trades about 15,500 contracts on the call side on any given day. That's the 20 day average. It traded 62,300, so about four times, a little more than four times the average daily call volume. The nice thing is that when you're dealing with Staples stocks like this is that those upside calls are relatively cheap. It's mostly speculative near term upside call buying. The most active contract, for example, that expires at the end of the next week week are the 28 strike calls July 28th. Those were trading actually for just 20 cents. Gives you a sense of what the premiums are for an upside bet on that.
- [33:23]
Tim Seymour
And then Tim, what do you think about the report itself?
- [33:26]
Bono
Look, first of all, we got to give JL Kraft a lot of credit for developing processed cheese. I mean, this has been an important thing for our country. And it's actually really, I mean, if you cut into why this deal is going down and why they're spinning out, it's because America is not really buying processed cheese and they're not not buying well, I mean, again, I don't want to insult people out there. I mean, a good cheese whiz sitting right on a cracker is fantastic stuff. But I think this is the history around this company, the history around 3G and Warren Buffett and the deal that they put together to actually extract so much value out of this one has kind of been a disaster.
- [34:01]
Tim Seymour
Well, bitcoin hitting yet another all time high today, topping 118,000. The run up comes ahead of crypto week in Washington, where Congress is set to consider key legislation for the industry. Our next guest says the cryptocurrency could march to $1 million. Will Reeves is the CEO of Fold, a Bitcoin financial services platform, and he joins us now. I mean, well, I'd love to sort of get your take on why we're seeing bitcoin move higher. I know it doesn't always trade on fundamentals, but is anything that's happening in Washington potentially influencing the price of bitcoin this week?
- [34:32]
H
You know, I think this is just inevitable. This is what happens when massive demand meets the finite supply of Bitco. What we're seeing right now is the supply shock in motion. So I'd certainly say what we are seeing is the fundamentals of bitcoin in play.
- [34:48]
Tim Seymour
And so do you think that it will begin to start to move more on fundamentals and potentially even more so once it gets these sort of stamps of, hey, this is good stuff from Washington.
- [34:59]
H
I think the stamps of approval have always been good. It enables new capital allocators to start to invest. And what we've seen recently with the rise of bitcoin treasury companies, the ETFs, is that entirely new classes of capital are able to invest in the asset. And what we're seeing is what happens when trillions of dollars start knocking on the door. The price tends to go up. And so the fundamentals have always been there. Investors have been waiting for their ability to get involved.
- [35:30]
Mike Coe
What would it take for some of the other coins, altcoins, to kind of get the vote of approval, or stamp of approval, if you will, in terms of bitcoins. Because, I mean, if you think back to meme coins, the doges, the early stages of bitcoin, it was really the early adopters that really kind of formed that cohort that pushed it higher. What will it take for us to see that transition into some of the other coins that are still branded as more speculative?
- [35:56]
H
You know, frankly, I think they're going to remain speculative. Bitcoin dominance is at 60% in rising. I think what we're seeing is an inevitable trend towards, towards the signal, the apex asset. The issue is, is that Bitcoin is the only credibly neutral digital asset that is in issuance. All the other tokens are still proving an extraordinarily speculative use case without the track record of Bitcoin. And so what we are seeing today is the continued march of bitcoin dominating this entire market. And I, I am. Well, I'm waiting for the day when that changes. But ultimately what we've seen is something that can't be reversed first.
- [36:35]
Bono
Well, it's Tim, thanks for joining us. I guess as I think about, you know, you talk about the pools of capital and you talk about, you know, how much money might be chasing it. How do you feel about the banks that are now kind of being forced to be at least on board with the stablecoin world? And you know, JP Morgan has been a reluctant player and yet behind the scenes they are very active. So just curious, your take on that.
- [36:57]
H
I think you're exactly right. All the detractors or from traditional financial world are now suddenly its biggest promoters. The regulatory landscape has changed so much that 4,000 FDIC insured banks, the bulge brackets, all need a bitcoin strategy. Like you said, many of them have been doing this behind the scenes. Others are scrambling and going to be late to this. But ultimately we are seeing everything converge in bitcoin. Again, this is not a rally. This is an entire movement and fundamental phase shift in monetary, the monetary foundation.
- [37:35]
Tim Seymour
So we've seen, we were speaking a little earlier in the show about the price of gold and the price of gold moving higher and so too is bitcoin. Do you believe that going forward that you're going to see those pairs continue to march in the same direction for similar reasons if you think bitcoin is now finally moving towards fundamentals?
- [37:50]
H
I think bitcoin and gold have always had a similar appeal to investors. They've just been different. Bitcoin has always been really a millennial driven asset. Gold is, has been held by much older generations. But what we see now, there are more bitcoin holders in the US Than those that are holding gold. Ultimately, bitcoin will eclipse gold as the sound money, preferred sound money asset for Americans and for the world. And that's where I firmly come to believe that bitcoin is on its, on its inevitable march to $1 million.
- [38:25]
Tim Seymour
We will see. Will Reeves, thank you for joining us with your take on bitcoin, specifically in the cryptocurrency trade. Mike, I want to get your thoughts. What do you think? A million dollars? We're going to a million before we go to 100,000, barging higher before we lose 18,000.
- [38:39]
Courtney Reagan
This is a pretty big stretch from 118 to a million relatives.
- [38:43]
Tim Seymour
But a few things are going up from here.
- [38:44]
Courtney Reagan
Well, I definitely think we're going higher. I think we're looking at, we're talking about a market that's going to be measured in trillions. There's only going to be 21 million of these things. Bitcoin is to other cryptocurrencies as gold is to other precious metals. So I think that's kind of the important thing. It has adoption by now governments, by corporations, by the financial markets in general. That does not mean that there isn't value to platinum when gold is a reserve. It's just a different kind of an asset. So one is speculative play and has industrial use and all of those other benefits. I'm bullish on platinum, I'm bullish on silver, I'm bullish on gold and I'm bullish on bitcoin. But I agree with what the guest was saying that it is in the crypto universe what gold is in terms of hard money.
- [39:29]
Tim Seymour
Interesting stuff. Well, coming up, a crude comeback, oil bouncing higher this weekend, bringing energy stocks with it. We'll dig into the fueled up gains and the names that could be set to win. Plus, we are rolling out the red carpet for Netflix earnings. How options traders are gearing up for this marquee report coming up next. Welcome back to FAST money. A winning week for oil as the commodity price rose. Energy stocks posted their biggest gains on the S and P this week. And the Vaneck Oil Services ETF hitting its highest since early April, up more than 30% from its lows. Names like Halliburton and Baker Hughes leading the gains today. Tim used to really dabble in a.
- [40:14]
Bono
Lot of commodity space and I, I like integrated oil companies. I've liked the oh, and I own Schlumberger and it's been frustrating for the couple of years. I just think the offshore drilling dynamic is something that hasn't really proved to be as profitable as it was seven or eight years ago. And but I think structurally integrated oil companies are run differently and I think they are run for shareholders, I think they are run for dividends. And I think people have gotten to to the wrong side of the boat. There's no question we could have a growth scare and that's ultimately what seems to drive the price of oil. I believe as it should, although the last say two months have had a lot of supply dynamics, whether it's been open OPEC plus increasing production, whether it's been supply disruption in the Middle east which always proves to be fleeting. The bid today was really around Russian exports being crimped up much more. Last time I checked I thought Russian sanctions already applied to Russian oil exports. But it seems to be something that, you know, I Guess they're slipping out. And that doesn't surprise me. But that's not the reason to chase it. But I, I look across to Europe. I love Royal Dutch Shell trades here at Shell S H E L to Total tte. I mean these are names that I think European integrated break even at lower oil prices on that dividend.
- [41:22]
Tim Seymour
I mean obviously energy makes up such a small portion of the S&P 500. But do you see value there? I mean there seems to be some pops here and there lately. Whether it's for fundamental reasons and what's going on with OPEC Russia or not.
- [41:33]
Mike Coe
That's a knock there, you know, in terms of flow of funds. Right. So you just think about how much money is actually going into the, into the asset class and whether or not that has a propensity to go much higher. So I think that's a negative case. On the flip side though, I think that we've rallied so much and we've got valuation stretch now in the low 20s. You can take a step down from say the Mag 7 or even some of like the other tech names that you're looking in the mid-30s. You step down, you look at these oil companies that are trading 18, 19, in some cases 15 times earnings and you get the dividend yield. So I think it's just a way for you to kind of de risk and bar bill, still have growth but still retain some safety.
- [42:06]
Tim Seymour
Yeah. Is that dividend attractive for you, my Mike?
- [42:09]
Courtney Reagan
I mean the dividends attractive. These things were trading cheap. I think the oil service index, which is basically, you know, that's forward looking so you're going to need to see some stability in prices. But those things are trading very cheap. Halliburton, Schlumberger, which he just mentioned, these things are all trading at high single digits right now.
- [42:23]
Tim Seymour
Well, coming up, a huge week of earnings. And it's not just the big banks. How options traders are positioning themselves ahead of Netflix's blockbuster report. That's next. More fast. And welcome back to Fast Money. We're getting geared up for a Titanic week of earnings ahead. Big banks United Air, J and J and more all set to report, as is Netflix, the streaming giant rolling out the red carpet for a highly promoted women's boxing match tonight. Ahead of Thursday's report. Shares hit a record at the end of June, but are down so far this month. Let's see, see how options traders are positioning themselves for all of next week's earnings. So Mike, let's start with the banks.
- [43:06]
Courtney Reagan
Yeah, let's start with JP Morgan, because that's the biggest and the best. And that right now the options market's implying about a 3% move the day they report about 3.6% or so by the end of the week. That's pretty much in line with the eight quarter average that we've been seeing there. Netflix also expecting a move of about 8%. And this is a name that I actually really like. I've many times described this thing as basically an unregulated utility. It's a great business. The only problem I have with it, it's been on such a tear and it is actually the spread right now between the stock price and 150 day moving average looks a little bit extended. My call, because I know this is broadly held. I think people should look at hedging this thing going into earnings. I like a put spread collar. I was looking out to the August 22nd weekly options. You could buy the 1225 puts for August 22nd, sell the 1125s against it, and then also sell the 1325 call. So you, you're basically getting 8% to the upside and you're getting 8% downside protection, which is the implied move. And those wings are going to come in on what we call the volume crush after.
- [44:04]
Bono
I mean that was genius. Did you catch all that? I mean that's options action Redox, which is, that's extraordinary. And that's, that's, that's called managing risk, folks. Good stuff. It was awesome.
- [44:15]
Tim Seymour
Yeah, it is good stuff. Julie, what do you make of that trade for Netflix?
- [44:20]
Julie Beal
I agree. I mean, I think that it is a completely an unregulated utility and the level of pricing power that they have is quite strong. They've been able to figure out how to segment their customer base which is so critical to really being able to extract the maximum amount of value. But yeah, at these levels of valuation, it's tough to say I'm going to step in. I think if you own it, you continue to own it. But I think stepping in right here is a little tough.
- [44:44]
Tim Seymour
Vanoon, what do you make of this?
- [44:45]
Mike Coe
Which is why I like to call it trade. It essentially allows you to manage that risk, particularly going into a catalyst that is earning earnings, whatever it is, 7 or 8% implied volume, that's where you want to step in and try to take some action and take advantage of that so that you're able to add some additional return to your portfolio rather than just chasing the stock after it's made such a run.
- [45:05]
Bono
I can't compete with these options geeks. And by the way, that's a compliment. This is a case where geek really is a compliment. And I think with Netflix, I don't want to chase here and of course I've not been chasing for the last $300 in the stock. I think it's gotten to a place where we believe they are entirely bull proof and even though their core business is, I think you're going to get it cheaper. I think you can definitely wait for it.
- [45:29]
Tim Seymour
All right, Very interesting stuff. We're all going to be watching that coming up next. It's already time for your final trade. It's time for the final trade. Let's go around the horn. Julie, start us off.
- [45:53]
Julie Beal
If you're looking to add some quality to portfolio, Tyler is a good option and it's on sale right now. That's not usual.
- [45:59]
Bono
And Tim, Courtney, great to have you here this week. Fantastic. You have an exciting weekend coming up. Mike, great to have you here in person. That's really wonderful and great to see boys going. Kind of picking up where it left off before a tragedy, but I think the wind under its wings are there following.
- [46:16]
Mike Coe
I understand concerns around the ag business abound, but I want to be investing in market leadership.
- [46:21]
Courtney Reagan
Dear Innovator, Dear Mike, had your Netflix, but I love it.
- [46:27]
Tim Seymour
Thanks for watching Fast Money. Mad Money starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of cnbc, NBC Universal, their parent company, or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer we quilt this.
- [47:13]
Courtney Reagan
City with a comfy roll.
- [47:17]
Tim Seymour
Quilted Northern is quilted with three cushy layers for your comfort.
- [47:20]
Courtney Reagan
The quilted comfort of Quilted Northern Keep.
- [47:25]
Tim Seymour
It quilted with Quilted Northern.