Stocks Sink as Inflation Fears Rise, and Counting Down to “Liberation Day” 3/28/25

Summary

CNBC's "Fast Money" Podcast Episode Summary
Episode Title: Stocks Sink as Inflation Fears Rise, and Counting Down to “Liberation Day”
Release Date: March 28, 2025
Hosts: Melissa Lee, Tim Seymour, Karen Feiderman, Courtney Garcia, Guy Adami

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Introduction

In the March 28, 2025 episode of CNBC's "Fast Money," host Melissa Lee and her panel of top traders delve into the day's tumultuous market movements, driven by rising inflation fears and looming tariff implementations dubbed "Liberation Day." The episode provides a comprehensive analysis of the market’s current state, upcoming economic events, and significant corporate developments affecting investors.

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Market Overview: Inflation Concerns and Tariffs

The episode opens with a sharp sell-off in the stock market, primarily led by technology stocks. The Nasdaq plunged over 2.5%, nearing its lowest close of the year, signaling a potential for the worst quarter in nearly three years. The "Magnificent Seven" tech giants collectively lost over half a trillion dollars in a single session, dragging down the S&P, Dow, and Russell 2000 indices.

Melissa Lee sets the stage:
"Stocks selling off on the back of a grim inflation outlook and continued worries about Liberation Day, AKA Tariff Day next week." [00:22]

Tim Seymour prompts the discussion by highlighting the convergence of hot inflation data and upcoming tariffs:
"With just one trading day left in Q1, the index is pacing for its worst quarter in nearly three years." [01:00]

Karen Feiderman underscores the inevitability of increased volatility:
"Volatility, absolutely. Pain I think comes along with volatility." [02:42]

The panel debates whether the ongoing inflation data and the anticipation of new tariffs will lead to sustained market turbulence. Guy Adami emphasizes the uncertainty surrounding tariffs:
"The big thing that's on investors' minds right now is tariffs, which are happening next week." [05:38]

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Federal Reserve’s Dilemma and Economic Indicators

The discussion shifts to the Federal Reserve's challenges in addressing inflation amid uncertain economic signals. Ben Emmons, a senior investment executive, explains how tariff-induced front-loading of imports is artificially inflating the Fed’s Preferred Price Index of Consumer Expenditures (PCE), complicating policy decisions.

Ben Emmons:
"The tariff effect is starting to come through... people start to continue to front load a lot of imports to try to get ahead of the tariffs. So that in itself drives up inflation while we're having what it looks like somewhat of a slowdown in spending." [10:18]

Tim Seymour adds context with insights from market analysts:
"The Fed is stuck... they probably will do nothing but the tendency is to want to fight inflation first until that jobs market starts to really fall apart." [05:38]

Courtney Garcia and Karen Feiderman discuss the potential for stagflation—a combination of stagnant growth and inflation—highlighting the Fed's precarious position.

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CoreWeave IPO: A Bellwether for Tech Market Sentiment

One of the episode's focal points is CoreWeave’s IPO, the largest tech IPO since 2021. The stock closed unchanged despite high expectations, raising concerns about market appetite for new tech offerings.

Christina Parts and Pelley, CNBC reporters covering the IPO, provide detailed insights:
"Core Weave CEO Mike Intrader and I were chatting right over there on this set earlier and he wanted me to know that their debt is manageable because it's systematically paid down through reliable revenue streams like Microsoft contracts." [15:24]

Dan Nathan, an analyst, expresses skepticism regarding CoreWeave’s sustainability:
"I wouldn't buy this with my worst enemy's money. These GPUs are going to be useless in about two years from now." [19:11]

The panel discusses the concentration risk associated with CoreWeave's reliance on major clients like Microsoft and the potential for contract cancellations, which could jeopardize the company's financial stability.

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Lululemon’s Earnings Drop: Implications for Consumer Health

The panel shifts focus to Lululemon's disappointing earnings, which saw the stock drop over 14% due to struggling store traffic and sales amid economic uncertainty.

Tim Seymour analyzes the situation:
"The slowing US Comps are a sign that US margins are going to come down." [27:42]

Guy Adami questions the company's explanation:
"They said this isn't a problem with Lululemon, it's the problem with the overall consumer. But I do question if that's the case." [28:15]

Karen Feiderman highlights Lululemon's broader business segments, noting that while GLP-1s (a class of obesity drugs) contribute significantly to revenue, the rest of their business remains undervalued despite strong performance in other areas like insulin and rare diseases.

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Amazon’s Performance: A Buying Opportunity?

Amazon experienced its eighth straight losing week, dropping nearly 20%. Despite the downturn, some panelists view this as a potential buying opportunity.

Guy Adami sees the dip as a chance to invest:
"I think this is something that you want to take advantage of and I think I see this with a lot of your Mag 7. I think it is getting oversold here." [24:59]

Courtney Garcia concurs, emphasizing Amazon's defensive business segments and growth in cloud services:
"I'm inclined to buy more. I'll wait, I think I'll get more opportunity than I care for tomorrow next week." [25:21]

Tim Seymour adds a valuation perspective:
"The valuation on Amazon is not terrible... I think the expectations for Macie [likely a typo and meant to refer to Amazon] when they report is that if they reaffirm guidance, I think it's bullish for the stock." [26:26]

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Elon Musk’s Acquisition of X AI: A Major Tech Move

Breaking news interrupts the regular discussion as Julia Borson reports on Elon Musk’s acquisition of X AI:

Elon Musk announced on X (formerly Twitter) that he has acquired X AI in an all-stock transaction, valuing X AI at $80 billion and X (the platform) at $33 billion, adjusted for $12 billion in debt. Musk highlighted the synergies between X AI's advanced AI capabilities and X's extensive user base, aiming to create a platform that "actively accelerates human progress."

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Novo Nordisk’s Decline: Market Concerns in Pharma

Novo Nordisk, a leading pharmaceutical company, faced its worst performance since 2002, dropping over 23% in March. Analysts from Bank of America anticipate an earnings miss due to sluggish sales of Ozempic and Wegovy, leading to downward guidance revisions.

Jared Hulse from Mizuho Securities explains:
"The stock was more than double from here last summer... the street is often unkind and I think it's basically voting now and saying that they believe this is too little too late." [37:19]

Courtney Garcia questions whether the pressure from dominant players like Lilly affects Novo Nordisk:
"Do you think that any of that overall big Picture Weight on GLP1s is also weighing on Novo or is it all idiosyncratic?" [39:41]

Tim Seymour shares a bullish stance, believing that if Novo reaffirms its guidance, the current valuation could be defensible despite the challenges.

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Trader's Charts: Predicting Q2 Market Moves

As the episode progresses, the traders present their most critical charts to anticipate Q2 trends:

1. Guy Adami emphasizes diversification beyond the "Magnificent Seven":
   "The S&P 500 is down about 5%... large cap ex mag 7 is down 0.3% since the beginning of the year." [32:23]

2. Tim Seymour highlights the relative performance of the semiconductor index versus the S&P 500:
   "Semis make a new relative low today... they stopped making relative highs against the S&P back in June." [32:54]

3. Courtney Garcia focuses on the 10-year Treasury yield as a proxy for economic health:
   "Today what it was telling us is concern, concern, concern about stagflation." [33:53]

4. Karen Feiderman points to gold markets as a prelude to broader economic fears:
   "Gold market is sort of portending, I think what's out there... sort of scary." [34:10]

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Closing Remarks and Final Thoughts

In the final segment, the traders offer their last words as they prepare for the upcoming week:

• Tim Seymour anticipates critical payroll numbers and their impact on the Fed's policies:
  "We're going to hear what we're going to hear... these are starting to become critical numbers for the Fed." [42:22]

• Courtney Garcia maintains a long-term investment perspective, advocating for buying undervalued stocks amid volatility:
  "My strong inclination is to buy... especially lower than $49." [42:37]

• Guy Adami encourages staying invested and diversifying portfolios:
  "You want to stay invested here... make sure you're diversified and buy into these dips." [42:53]

• Karen Feiderman warns of potential stagflation if job numbers deteriorate:
  "If the job number deteriorates, we're staring at stagflation." [43:29]

The episode concludes with a reminder of upcoming segments and events, encouraging listeners to stay informed and engaged with the market's evolving landscape.

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Conclusion

The March 28 episode of "Fast Money" provides a deep dive into the current economic challenges facing the markets, including inflation pressures, impending tariffs, and significant corporate performances. The traders offer a blend of caution and opportunism, advising investors to remain diversified and vigilant amid the prevailing uncertainties. With key events like Liberation Day and critical earnings reports on the horizon, the episode underscores the importance of strategic decision-making to navigate the volatile financial environment.

Transcript

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[Karen Feiderman]

Volatility, absolutely. Pain I think comes along with volatility and you know, you say what you want. The market sold off 600s and P handles from the all time high to that Recent low on March 14th pretty much in a straight line. The bounce made sense almost to the penny as Carter would say thought maybe 50 and a quarter. It got close, 50% retracement and now this sort of resolution of selling we want to call it to me makes a lot of sense. The inflation data is hot. Yields backed off probably on the back of a weaker market. But that recent low of 5507 or something to me is a huge line in the sand here, Mel.

[Courtney Garcia]

So it was a little surprising, counterintuitive.

[Tim Seymour]

Right.

[Courtney Garcia]

You get this hot inflation data and then you get this reaction in the 10 year bonds that is sort of contractionary. Right. So you could see both sort of happening. I do have an inflation bet that probably didn't work out well today but that was sort of interesting to me. I feel like it was a bit of a overreaction but that doesn't really matter. We got a very big event coming as you open the show with right. On Tuesday. I don't think there'll be resolution. That will be our what we're putting forth.

[Melissa Lee]

Right.

[Courtney Garcia]

Which isn't to say then it's over.

[Melissa Lee]

Resolution from the jobs report.

[Courtney Garcia]

No, no. I mean resolution from tariff day. Right. So I feel like going into a weekend like this, we have this very big event on, on Tuesday, a lot of uncertainty. I always look to buy when there's a lot of pain but I didn't buy anything today because I just feel like let's just wait a little more. This Vix, which I know you look at very closely at 21, it's no man's land. This isn't panicky, right Yet. So I feel like it's going to go higher before it goes lower. Then I will look to buy probably too soon but I feel like especially that we talk about the mag 6, 7. I sort of like those names. They're not. Some of them aren't particularly China sensitive at all or tariff sensitive at all. Great balance sheets, good business models. But you know that was a terrible, terrible week for them.

[Melissa Lee]

But they are growth sensitive and to the effect, you know, you mentioned tarot day. We're not going to get resolution, we're not going to resolution on the economic outlook either with this jobs report. I mean there's probably still, I mean it's going to be funky. Right. Just because the layoffs, we don't know if they've hit. We don't know if federal workers are being counted in these numbers yet. There's just a lot of uncertainty around those numbers.

[Tim Seymour]

There's a lot of uncertainty around those numbers. And all we continue to do is get more data, more, you know, essentially updates on how the consumer and sentiment and we're getting to, you know, essentially record lows on at least on sentiment in terms of how quickly that Delta has moved. Steve Liesman with some great data on that point. But in other words, we're going to talk about spending, we're going to talk about where that's fallen off. Scott Wapner had a great interview with Robert Kaplan of the formerly of the Dallas Fed now at Goldman Sachs using the stagflation term, using a term that the Fed is so reluctant to do. I thought was a great interview because it really was very, very open about where we are and where you have seen a quick shift and what, what conundrum the Fed really is in and that they probably will do nothing but the tendency is to want to fight inflation first until that, that, that jobs market starts to really fall apart.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah.

[Guy Adami]

And I think really what you saw today was this de risking. I think the big thing that's on investors mind right now is tariffs, which are happening next week. And everybody came into this week hoping that they weren't going to be as extreme. You saw the markets jump on that news but now realizing, okay, this is going to come to fruition. And yet to Karen's point, could this just be the start of it and a bigger trade war and all these retaliatory tariffs that could be coming along. So I don't think we're going to know everything by Tuesday. It just could lead to more uncertainty. That's what the markets aren't liking. So you did get some inflation data out today. There also was some weakness with the consumer which people are worried about. But I don't think all of the data was bad. Like really you're not seeing the consumer fall off a cliff. You're actually seeing savings rates went up to about 4.6%. So people are pulling back. But really income has been rising faster than inflation. People just aren't spending because they're worried about the rainy day and what they need to go moving forward. They're not falling apart at the seams. I think that would be a bigger concern. I don't think we're seeing that right now.

[Karen Feiderman]

And she's 100% right. Except that, you know, they're saving because they may be scared of something.

[Melissa Lee]

Exactly.

[Karen Feiderman]

And what they're scared of potentially could be what we're talking about now. When they see the stock market have days like this And Karen is 100% right as usual. All the stocks you mentioned really don't have any china exposure, but they have obviously broader market exposure and all the ETFs are in. So if these ETFs all of a sudden are actively traded to the downside, what works for them on days the market goes higher works against them when days it goes lower. And I think to a certain extent that's what we're seeing as well.

[Tim Seymour]

Classic rotation. And anything that that has a pulse in terms of high growth, not a lot of profitability trades at a sales multiple. And people only talk about a sales multiple. Those are the stocks that are getting hit. And even though in the last 36 hours we've digested headlines about pharma tariffs and things that are coming for that. And inherently if you're a staples company too, you have exposure to what's going on tariff wise and it' certainly will be passed along. But staples and pharma outperforming tells you exactly what you need to know. Go with a fresh high. So this tells you where the market is at. And I do think that there's a case where a lot of people are ready to wade on through this. I don't think we've had anything close to a blow off bottom here. I think there's a lot of people that actually aren't really scared yet. And that's the concern I have.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah. And utilities also the only sector up today. So how are you hedging?

[Courtney Garcia]

You know, I'm not really that hedged. I always have some hedge on but I'm always very long and to be the hedge in companies that have excellent balance sheets that can really weather the storm. And you know, I have some things that are somewhat counter like this inflation bet but that actually didn't work today. So I just, you know, endure the pain and try to accident.

[Guy Adami]

And I think another hedge that has actually worked really with the tariffs is your foreign companies. I think people really need to realize that because of the Tariffs, it's really.

[Tim Seymour]

You can say it. Courtney. Megan, International grade again, correct?

[Guy Adami]

Exactly. Yeah. Basically, I mean these tariffs are forcing other countries to put more stimulus into their economy, is put more money into defense and spending and reinvesting back into those categories. And I think that's only going to continue to have like an unintended consequence of tariffs. So that's actually a really good diversification and a hedge against these tariffs we go forward.

[Tim Seymour]

One of the things is someone that's been investing globally a lot of my career, one of the things I'm so used to hearing is that when international markets look interesting, a lot of people like why do I invest internationally when things are even? I have more growth in the US with less governance, risk with more certainty. And I think that story is really challenged now. So this, this term of US Exceptionalism and the challenge to it, I think it's fair and I think it's not just that you've had this fiscal, these fiscal announcements really around the world, including we've even looked at the China announcement, which to me seems to be more focused on the consumer and consumption than ever, but a dynamic where these companies are not only extremely cheap, but the oxygen that was being choked out of the room from owning the top seven or eight market caps, which are, you know, basically between them are bigger than the entire euro. Stoxx 50. That's the reason why a lot of investment just didn't flow into the US And I think that's part of that story international that's, that continues.

[Karen Feiderman]

You know, it's going back to the names that Karen mentioned, like Facebook, for example, traded right down to a level. We actually talked about it on the show. We had a conversation if we've been waiting, today's the day, I think was March 14th or 15th there about and it bounced probably 75 or $80 off that low, which was a pretty significant move. It's retraced that entire move in the course of about five or six trading days. And here we are at that prior support. So a lot of the things which bounced off support levels are right back to critical levels. So next week, whatever you call liberation day, quarter end, assuming today was not quarter end for some people, there's a lot's going to happen next week for sure.

[Melissa Lee]

For more on today's hot inflation data, let's bring in Ben Emmons. He's a senior investment executive at Strategic Fortune wealth and the CIO and founder of FedWatch Advisors. Ben, great to have you with us. How do you fit in today's economic data into the mosaic that we've had so far.

[Ben Emmons]

Hi Mel. So it is definitely hotter than we thought. Right. And I think the tariff effect is starting to come through because I noted that particularly durable goods BCE was up and there's different categories there. I think it was related to what we're seeing in the trade data too. People start to continue to front load a lot of imports to try to get ahead of the tariffs. So that in itself drives up inflation while we're having what it looks like somewhat of a slowdown in spending and against all this uncertainty. So it seems that that's what the market got really tense about today. Now the S word is back as Robert Kaplan was talking about earlier. I don't think it's the actual stagflation, but it's the idea that we're trying to get ahead of tariffs which actually leads to more more economic activity but more inflation while the tariffs still have to happen. I think this is the tension markets.

[Courtney Garcia]

Ben, it's Karen, just to that point that do you think that we will see in the next coming month or two of data a reversal of that very high inflation expectation?

[Ben Emmons]

It could be, Karen, if we're getting again this all depends on the clarity of these tariffs we've all talked about. We don't notice exactly. We're getting tidbits here of like whether it's on autos or copper or I saw a headline now on pharma that tariffs are being prepared for those two. I think that is really what the consumer may be looking for is the clarity on these what where I can expect these tariffs and then expectations adjust accordingly. But I also think it's about all this front loading that's happened with all these goods that are I guess not being tariff just yet. What will demand do from here and will read and slow down so significantly that that puts a little bit pressure on prices downward as we're getting into the second quarter. I think you can expect that people continue to try to figure out what is really tariff, yes or no. I think that's still the uncertainty will.

[Melissa Lee]

Stay with so so right now the markets are firmly in the camp with the next Fed move being in June. Ben and I'm wondering in your view, I mean based on what you said about PCE and how it's being distorted because of all this sort of bringing in the inventory earlier to get ahead of the tariffs, how many quarters do you think we'd have to wait what are you telling clients in terms of how how the Fed will want to see clean data. And when that clean data starts to.

[Ben Emmons]

Come through, it may take another quarter, I think, Mel, because what you're seeing currently is that this GDP data is negative because of basically the import effect. So that should be put back into gdp, so to speak, rhythmically. But then it's about like what's the confidence effect that we're seeing coming through as well in the Michigan data that we saw today really going to do to spending in the following quarter, people really going to pare back and you know, to Courtney's point, the savings rate ticked up a little bit and so people are getting cautious and is that caution going to continue? So it may still stay with us for a quarter at least for this distorted data before we get more clarity on the economy itself. For the Fed, however, it is that fog that Barkin was talking about. They can't really do anything in part because they deal already with hotter inflation from all this front loading. And so they're kind of stuck.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, Ben, great to speak with you. Thank you.

[Ben Emmons]

Thank you.

[Melissa Lee]

Ben Emmons last week, guy runs the squawk box with you to Austan Goolsbee and he said several months, several months, not a few months, several months before we would actually see the impact of the tariffs flow through the economy and get a good sense of where the economy is.

[Karen Feiderman]

Might be true. You can see it a lot faster in the stock market though, right? I mean, so that's, I think what we're trying, I agree with them on the economy without question, but people are preparing themselves. You know, Tim and I have talked about the move in copper is trying to get ahead of those tariffs. When you watch this evening news and you talk to dealerships with all the inventory on their lots, that's trying to get ahead of this. So some people are feeling it already, but the market is clearly preparing for maybe the worst case scenario, maybe not, but clearly preparing for something.

[Tim Seymour]

Well, as you point out, I mean, the market is preparing, but earnings season will even prepare us even more from what the C Suite is saying. So if you think about where we're coming, and this is also coinciding, not surprisingly, with the street downgrading EPS expectations. So we've seen it, we're going to continue to see it, but we're going to hear the C Suite be incredibly cautious and that's not going to help the stock market. So we need to see something more for the market to rally even if we're not going to see it.

[Guy Adami]

And I think a lot of this you're seeing a lot of very conservative guidance. And I think that's what you have to do right now with this kind of uncertainty and with what you're seeing with the consumer. And that's where you're seeing everything is getting priced in is on what these expectations are going forward. But if the consumer doesn't actually fall off as people expect or if this does come to pass, the uncertainty falls. I do, yeah, there is probably some.

[Karen Feiderman]

Opportunity because Dan sits there typically and he's a silver lining over lining Dan.

[Melissa Lee]

But if you have to call yourself that and remind people that that's what you are, you are not. Let's get now to the biggest US Tech IPO in four years. Nvidia backed Core Weave closing unchanged after pricing came in below expectations. Core we've seen as a bellwether for demand. CNBC's Christina Parts and Novelist has followed the action all day here at the Nasdaq is right here and joins us right here.

[Christina Parts and Pelley]

Tons of people. So like you said, closing 40 bucks. It was, it opened at 39. So let's be positive. It was a little bit higher but still below initial expectations. Corey rents out infrastructure. Our GPUs pretty much so customers don't have to deal with the hassle. The company has seen tremendous growth, 60 million in 2022 revenues up almost 2 billion last year. Although they're not profitable, there's obviously concerns about looming debt. Dan normally likes to talk about that. But keep this in mind. This a growth startup. It really was only formed in 2017 and has come a long way. Core Weave CEO Mike Intrader and I were chatting right over there on this set earlier and he wanted me to know that their debt, this is the key part, is manageable because it's systematically paid down through reliable revenue streams like Microsoft contracts or as he said, Microsoft isn't going to default. Secondly, the assets such as DPU's actually retain more value than critics suggest, so don't stress out about the depreciation schedule. And lastly, new major partners like Open Air, a vote of confidence in the company's long term viability. They wouldn't do business with Core Weave had they not done their due diligence. This was the first big tech IPO in four years to your point, and seen as a litmus test for appetite in the market, not only for IPOs but also pure infrastructure. Plays Core Weave CEO telling Jim Cramer it was a really, really tough tape today and it's been a tough tape for the last couple of weeks here. You can hear more from that interview Right after the show Mad Money.

[Melissa Lee]

See that just, just quickly Christina. Microsoft is 62% of sales and that was, that's one of the knocks concentration of customers. When you hear about reports from a TD report a couple of weeks ago about, about cancellations and Microsoft specifically canceling leases is that core weave, is that reading between the lines too much? In other words, how, how much ability does a customer that's a very good like a Microsoft have to cancel or back out of those contracts that are done sustainable, you know, to systemically pay down debt.

[Christina Parts and Pelley]

The the CEO was quick to say that OpenAI had put in the $12 million contract very recently. And so then that can raise the question is this really. But also the relationship between Open Air and Microsoft and how they're trying to diverge and that could be very much the case. I don't know. He didn't tell me if that was.

[Tim Seymour]

But how ironclad are those contracts to be? Could they be broken? So unlike you know, payments and whatnot are one thing and Microsoft certainly has.

[Christina Parts and Pelley]

Got incredibly cash and you think if you're signing these lease contracts that years old, do you really want to sign a contract for four years, is that going to offset the debt that you're going to have over the next little while? He told me there about on average over four years. So I said well four years does that. That doesn't necessarily mean they're going to resign. Right. And you have these GPUs that are supposed to last up to six years and some even more because they're so darn expensive.

[Melissa Lee]

Right.

[Christina Parts and Pelley]

They're spending billions.

[Melissa Lee]

Right.

[Christina Parts and Pelley]

The OpenAI contract, excellent example. $12 billion.

[Tim Seymour]

It seems, it seems hard to believe and I'm not disputing what you're saying but like a four year contract in this environment and AI who's signing that.

[Melissa Lee]

Right.

[Tim Seymour]

I mean is the world is changing by the second and it gets back to yes, it's the concentration risk of two clients. It's the concentration risk that's also attached to essentially this is you know, renting out access to Nvidia chips where Nvidia is like the primary. So it doesn't, doesn't. It's all fine. But it ultimately implies that there has to be a different level of demand than there is right now at a time when people are questioning that demand.

[Christina Parts and Pelley]

Yeah, no, I agree. You're totally right. I asked him that and he was quick to say GPUs have another their lifecycle continues because they can be repurposed.

[Melissa Lee]

Christina. Thank you Christina. Parts and Novelists. Now, all week, even before this week, Dan has been saying that he would steer clear of this ipo. He's joining us now for Friday Pop in. We had to go back to you, Dan, in terms of how this thing traded and your warnings and we've heard a lot more from the CEO. How are you feeling about this new issue now?

[Dan Nathan]

Yeah, I wouldn't buy this with my worst enemy's money. And that would be Elon Musk. I mean, maybe he's kind of dabbling a little bit if he's a customer of this sort of stuff when you think about what's going on. And Christina really kind of nailed the whole setup here. The problem is, is that continue to actually make these long term leases for data centers. They continue to raise this capital to buy GPUs. Most of their GPUs are hopper. They're the last generation and they're depreciating them at six years. These things are going to be useless in about two years from now. Then you have the situation of an accounting situation where you know, if they have to actually depreciate these faster so they have all this debt, they need to continue to raise debt to grow. They were not able to raise a whole heck of a lot of equity on this deal. And so I think about this situation here, the concentration of the customers, you guys just covered it. Who knows how you can get out of these, these leases if you're like a Microsoft and you're 62% of their sales. But make no mistake about it, Microsoft, when they're leasing from a company like Core Weave, this is not their most important sort of workloads that they're doing. And that's why if they have built overcapacity for their own data centers, they're going to be the first ones to cancel when they can, something from Core Weave. So again, I think there's going to be many, many iterations of this story that play out. But if you're about ways to invest in the public markets in this generative AI trade, this is the least innovative way to do it. You know, like if you think about all the other stuff that's going on in the private markets right now, whether it's OpenAI, whether it's anthropic, whether it's cohere, these are really innovative companies that are customers of a data center like Core Weave and they are ultimately probably going to have more pricing power, especially as you have this kind of ebb and flow of demand and then capacity constraint right now. I think there's no real capacity constraint. I think they've overbuilt. I think we're starting to see that right now.

[Melissa Lee]

The options will trade on this thing sometime next week, I presume. Would you be inclined to make a bet to the downside?

[Dan Nathan]

Here's something really interesting. Mel and I heard this today from some equity capital markets groups across the street. I don't know any investors who are buying this stock. I did hear from some investors who if the thing were to pop they would be looking to get a borrow to short it. Right. And so Karen can kind of walk through. She's probably one of those sorts of folks. I don't mean on this deal in particular because again we don't really know the valuation just yet. Here's the one thing I would love to know when Goldman JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley initiate on this name I'm not going to say I guarantee anything. I'd be shocked if there's a buy buy rating. So again I think you're going to have a lot of hedge funds look to be optimistic, opportunistic and probably take the other side of this especially when you see what's going on in the public markets. All the hyperscalers are down at least 20%. Nvidia is down nearly 30%. Why would you go out and buy.

[Melissa Lee]

This it Mr. Silver Linings. Great to speak on this Friday. Great to see you.

[Dan Nathan]

I'll see you next week.

[Melissa Lee]

Thanks Dan. Curious it close exactly at 40.

[Courtney Garcia]

I find that amazing actually because it.

[Tim Seymour]

Could not close below exactly. It was defended. You'll never, you'll never work again if that the equity syndicate take this thing.

[Courtney Garcia]

Right. But what did they sell? 37 million shares and down.

[Melissa Lee]

Down. Yeah.

[Courtney Garcia]

Well 41 million shares traded today. Now it's the same, you know the stock trading over and over again. But I actually found, I mean we've seen, we've seen deals where there is a syndicate that does try to hold price and yet still it breaks below. Uber for example. Remember that?

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah. Going back Facebook.

[Courtney Garcia]

Facebook traded terribly.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah. First it was horrible.

[Courtney Garcia]

I just. I found 40 to be kind of surprising that they were really too. Yes.

[Karen Feiderman]

Actually real quick, the CEO said tough market environment today. I think this IPO might have created that tough.

[Melissa Lee]

Today's session for today's session.

[Karen Feiderman]

Sure. And by the way there was an FT article on the 5th talking about Microsoft potentially backing away from core weave leases that core we've denied but that has been out there for a while and as Dennis said there was tremendous amount of insider selling before this deal today. So there's a lot to be skeptical of for sure.

[Melissa Lee]

Coming up, a tech Titans tough break. Amazon finishing out its eighth straight losing week. But could the pullback be priming shares for pop? We'll debate that next. And later, Lululemon down on its LU after earnings as a broader retail space also takes a hit. The guidance that's got investors spooked and what it all says about the health of the consumer. Fast Money. Be right back.

[Tim Seymour]

This is Fast Money with Melissa Lee right here on cnbc. How will you shape the future of consumer products in retail with confidence? Behind every favorite product or seamless checkout, there's a series of strategic decisions to make. EY brings real time insights and deep sector expertise to create value in the moments that matter, whether it's untangling global supply chains, managing cost pressures or leveraging emerging tech. EY's full spectrum of services helps CPG and retail companies deliver profitable growth. EY shape the future with confidence. Check out the all new CNBC sport podcast where sports business and investing collide from media deals to team valuations, private at equity moves and more. Catch the biggest business stories on the CNBC Sport podcast. Listen on your favorite platform.

[Melissa Lee]

Welcome back to Fast Money. Amazon closing out its eighth straight losing week. That is its longest losing streak since 2022. The tech giant down nearly 20% during the rough spell. The company dealing with recent weakness alongside growing cracks in the consumer. So it's really taking it from all sides. Courtney, how are you feeling about Amazon?

[Guy Adami]

You know I actually, I think I look at a lot of these as buying opportunities. I don't think that the economy or the consumer is as bad I think as people are fearing right now. And if so I think this is something that you want to take advantage of and I think I see this with a lot of your Mag 7. I think it is getting oversold here. I also don't think though as the markets recover it's necessarily going to be the leader. So I think this is something you want to own. I'm not over allocating toward it but it absolutely is part of my portfolio and I think these are buying opportunities.

[Courtney Garcia]

I agree. I mean if you think about half their however you want to divide up their business, a giant chunk of it is very Walmart like. Right. And so to me that's a very defensive point. Part of the business and then I mean there's still tremendous growth in the cloud service provider part of it. So I agree. I'm inclined to buy more. I'll wait I think I'll get, I'll get more opportunity than I care for tomorrow next week.

[Karen Feiderman]

You know if you look at the prior all time high back in July of last year is about where we are right now 195ish so that prior resistance becomes support. It was a decent volume day today but again they're not sort of they are get caught up in the whole consumer weaknesses the rest of these stocks and they get caught up in the ETF flows the other way as well. But this is as good a level as seen in a while.

[Tim Seymour]

I agree, I agree with everyone here. I also look at the valuation on Amazon is not terrible certainly relative to itself. I think they're, they're e commerce businesses though what you get for free when you buy their cloud business and I think as we should be worried about the competitive landscape and how I don't think it's commoditized but I don't think they're able to really extract the kind of margins they used to. That's what we're watching in aws.

[Melissa Lee]

All right. There's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.

[Tim Seymour]

Lululemon hitting the mat. What the company said that has Wall street so concerned and whether it's a warning signal for the broader consumer space. Plus the trader's top charts as we look to close out the worst quarter for markets in nearly three years. These charts could tell the true story of where we're headed next. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market site in Times s right after this. Check out the all new CNBC sport podcast where sports business and investing collide from media deals to team valuations, private equity moves and more. Catch the biggest business stories on the CNBC Sport podcast. Listen on your favorite platform.

[Melissa Lee]

Welcome back to Fast Money. A major buzzkill for Lululemon. Its worst day in more than a year down more than 14% after last night's ear things. The Athleisure brand issuing disappointing guidance saying store traffic and sales were struggling due to economic uncertainty. Maybe we shouldn't have been surprised. And yet we were down 14%. Tim, what did you make of this?

[Tim Seymour]

I just think it's, it's a story where the bar still is so high relative to itself. There is nothing wrong with these numbers. We all know that the guide was not good. The slowing US Comps are a sign that US margins are going to come down to China actually was kind of a bright spot spot. But if you look at what's Going on the fear is between inventory and SG&A spend that this is a margin story that won't ever or won't in the near future be anywhere near. It was. I also just think there is macro pressure on consumer discretionary. I mean how many more LULU items do you need? Guy, why don't you tell us?

[Melissa Lee]

Well, man in the lulu shirt.

[Karen Feiderman]

Man in the lulu shall you see that? Exactly.

[Tim Seymour]

That's called I'm not buying any more, I'm not buying anymore. This is it.

[Guy Adami]

Well I think that's the trouble is their guidance was actually on the macro consumer. So they're saying this isn't a problem with Lululemon, is the problem with the overall consumer. But I do question is that the case? Because I think there has been so much competition there where people are going to alo and they're going to be ore and they have alluded to that in the past. They said well that's not this time. It's actually because the consumer and I don't know if I'm, I'm sold on that idea yet. And I do agree with you, China was their bright spot but 70% of their business is here in the US and if we're not buying Lululemon anymore, I think that's something you have to see going forward. So I'm not totally sold on that idea yet.

[Courtney Garcia]

So like all the retailers, it's been modest. Right. Why be anything but conservative? Which I think is what they were doing. It's down again on that same thing of being a retailer and issuing, you know, guidance that was a little disappointing to the street. The quarter I thought was pretty good. Right? The margins were good. I thought, you know, China I think will continue to be a bright spot because it's such a relatively small part of their business. The growth there I think can be for a while at what doesn't move the needle so much. We haven't seen LULU at this valuation and I don't know how long. Right. Maybe 20, 20. The bottom of the. Of the pandemic fear. But I don't own it. But I am intrigued. So no need to jump in here. Three day rule for sure. Especially down whatever 49 bucks. But I don't know. I don't think it's. Don't throw out the.

[Tim Seymour]

Where do you have that multiple roughly? I mean you say it's cheap.

[Karen Feiderman]

20. Less than 20.

[Courtney Garcia]

Less than 20. Yeah. Great balance sheet.

[Karen Feiderman]

Streets still too high. I think the average price target on the streets, 387. That's with a lot of people taking down their numbers today. Yes, valuation is compelling, but this is there used to be somebody on the show named Jeff Mackey. Love Jeff Mackie. He used to say specialty retailers where hope goes to die. And to a certain extent that's what we're sort of seeing here. And this looks eerily reminiscent to what Nike is now dealing with in terms of competition and sort of bloom off the rose. And Nike's been now in a four year downtrend. Mel.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, we do have breaking news on Elon Musk's X AI. Julia Borson's got the details. Julia. Hey, Melissa. Elon Musk announcing on X that XI has acquired X in an all stock transaction, saying that this combination values XAI at $80 billion and X at 33 billion, 45 billion less 12 billion in debt, saying since its founding two years ago, Xi has rapidly become one of the leading AI labs in the world, building models and data centers, saying X is the digital town square where more than 600 million active users go to find the real time source of ground truth. And in the last two years has been transformed into one of the most efficient companies in the world, positioning it to deliver scalable future growth. He goes on to talk about combining the data models, compute, distribution and talent of these two companies. This advanced AI capability of XAI and X's massive reach. He says this will allow us to build a platform that actively accelerates human progress. And he thanks everyone for their support. Back over to you, Julia. Thank you, Julia boorstin. Coming up, more chart than science. With uncertainty rocking markets this quarter, the traders lay out their most important charts and the clues they could be giving about where we go in Q2. All that and much more when Fast Money returns.

[Tim Seymour]

Missed a moment of fast. Catch us anytime on the Go. Follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.

[Melissa Lee]

Welcome back to Fast money. Stocks plunging into the red on the hot PC inflation data, giving up all the gains for the week. The Dow dropping more than 700 points. The S&P down just under 2%. The NASDAQ losing more than 2% for the fifth time in March. It's pacing for its worst month in nearly three years. Well, with all the volatility we've seen this month, we thought we'd ask our traders what they think is the most important chart in the market right now. First up, Courtney's going to kick it off. You're moving away from technology. Where are you going?

[Guy Adami]

I think this is something that's always in focus. Right. Because those are the sexy exciting stocks or the Apples and the Googles and the Microsoft. But your Mag 7 is down about 15% since the beginning of the year. The S&P 500 is down about 5% percent. When you take those out and you look at the rest of the markets, they're basically flat this year. So you look at this is a large cap ex mag 7 it's down 0.3% since the beginning of the year. I think this is where you need to remember as an investor why you want to be allocated to other categories and there is plenty that's holding up here. So just try not to focus on just those things. I think this trend is probably going to continue.

[Melissa Lee]

Tim, what is your chart?

[Tim Seymour]

Well my chart is is the relative performance of the semiconductor index to the S and P and I'm taking a similar angle. It's a similar concept at least inferen from what's going on here and what it means. In other words, semis were the growth part of the market, the most exciting part of the part of the market we talk all the time that that part of the market outperformed for a long time but really stopped making relative highs against the S and P back in June. What we noticed and even on today's close. So today's close was not only through the close off of the lows of two weeks ago that the market rallied almost 11% in terms of semis rally rallied but they made a new relative low today. And that to me to oversimplify this, which is what I think we were able to do, we often talked about this on the way up which is as long as semis are outperforming QS or the NASDAQ which are outperforming the S and P life is good for markets and it doesn't mean that there aren't stocks that weren't trading here. So today new relative low and this week semis make a new relative low.

[Melissa Lee]

Karen, what is your most important chart?

[Courtney Garcia]

Mine is the 10 year which was interesting today. I mean to me it's just, you know, as a proxy for the economy. Right. And so today what it was telling us is concern, concern, concern about stagflation. And so in the face of that it's hard for the market to rally lot. So that's my most important chart Guy.

[Karen Feiderman]

Hello. In a similar vein of a cautionary tale gold market which is something we've been harping on now for a couple of years but recently now it seems to be impervious to everything. Historically news would come out to make gold go lower. It's no longer happening. So gold to me is a story that's sort of portending, I think something to Karen's point, sort of scary that's out there. I think the gold market is sort of a prelude to that kiss. Remember that show on Broadway, Prelude to a Kiss? No, it was a Broadway show, late 90s, early mid-90s, obviously not in a. I think Alec saw a big one.

[Courtney Garcia]

Oh really?

[Karen Feiderman]

Alec Baldwin might have been not.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, well Google it anyway if you want to get insight on charts, markets, maybe even trader music playlists because there are playlists that are in action during the breaks here. Buy a ticket to our next Fast Money live event that's on June 5th. It's a great chance to pick our traders brains in person, watch a show and have a couple cocktails. Click on the QR code on your screen or go to CNBC events.com fastmoney to sign up.

[Tim Seymour]

We do play a mean game of of movie trivia for sure. And rock and roll trivia too.

[Melissa Lee]

And password.

[Tim Seymour]

And I'll challenge anybody out there. I will take you down in rock and roll trivia.

[Karen Feiderman]

You know, as soon as they come, bring your friends.

[Tim Seymour]

Sorry.

[Karen Feiderman]

Yeah, you can bring a group of people.

[Tim Seymour]

Oh, take me on. Take him on. Take me on. Yeah, and name that tune.

[Courtney Garcia]

Name that tune. Three.

[Tim Seymour]

Let's take that.

[Melissa Lee]

Okay.

[Tim Seymour]

Yeah, that one that. It starts out in cartoon and then it turns into real life.

[Melissa Lee]

Worst month in more than two decades. Why bank of America says earnings could disappoint. What tariffs on the industry could mean for the stock. And a quick programming note. A new show from CNBC Sport premieres this weekend. It is called on the Record. You can see it tomorrow, 3pm Eastern. The episode will feature interviews with NBC Commissioner Adam Silver, ESPN Mina Kimes and TKO President Mark Shapiro. Fast Money's back into welcome back to Fast Money. We've got breaking news on former Oz Media CEO Carlos Watson. Julie Borson's got the details. Julia. Melissa, that's right, Trump. President Trump has commuted his 10 year prison sentence. Carlos Watson tweeting out on X his that his sentence has been commuted saying and this has been tweeting out with a thank you to Donald Trump, Ivanka Trump. And this goes on. So big news today that he is not Carlos Watson is not going to prison. All right, Julia, thank you. Julia Boorstin. Let's get to Novo Nordisk down once again today, seeing its worst month Since July of 2002 too down more than 23% in March analysts at bank of America warning of an earnings miss this quarter thanks to quote, sluggish Ozempic and wegovy trends and worse effects. They also expect to cut to guidance. But our next guest still sees the injectable obesity space as a two player market. Mizuho securities. Jared Hulse joins us now. Jared, great to have you with us. Just because it's a two player race and obesity doesn't necessarily mean that the stock goes higher. I mean, or is it just completely washed out Right, right now?

[I]

Hey Melissa, thank you so much for having me. It's so washed out. I mean a lot of it's going to come down to the numbers for the quarter coming up. As you know, these other analysts are alluding to, you know, how much a guidance cut actually takes place. I'm not expecting a major one. Maybe there's a modest one on effects and you know, some of the trends are coming in light. But I think, you know, based on what we've seen earlier this year and much of last year year, the fate of Novo is as much the competitive landscape as it is itself. And we'll see what happens with this oral data from Lilly in a, you know, couple of weeks or you know, up to a couple of months.

[Melissa Lee]

It's interesting because just this week alone Jared Novos had made a couple of deals for a small payment upfront on various obesity, metabolic disease sort of drugs. The latest one being today with Lexicon, the other one earlier this week with the Chinese pharma company. It hasn't moved the needle. So what do you think Novo has to do to change the narrative about its pipeline? They had their annual general meeting and apparently the CEO didn't do enough to change investors minds.

[I]

Yeah, it just seems like the company has been a little bit too late in terms of aggregating assets that investors believe are significant enough. I mean we talked about this last time and we've discussed it so many times over the past year year. You know, the stock was, you know, more than a double from here last summer. And at that point, you know, that was the time in which the company should have been looking for assets when things were going really well. And in Pharma, you know, the street is often unkind and I think it's basically voting now and saying that they believe investors believe this is too little too late. And these deals are defensive and now they're behind and we'll see. I mean it's going to come down to the data that these two deals that you mentioned, you know, what the data look like individually and then what the competitive landscape looks like over the next couple of quarters.

[Courtney Garcia]

Jared, it's Karen. So in this two horse race, do you think, you know, Lilly has had a bit of a pullback as well, which maybe is up too much or maybe people too excited about, you know, the booming growth of the GLP1s. I know they've had, had, you know, they're getting the lion's share by a lot. Do you think that any of that overall big Picture Weight on GLP1s is also weighing on Novo or is it all idiosyncratic? Novo, you're behind and you're getting further behind.

[I]

Yeah, I mean, I think that the category has lost a little bit of the halo it had for the better part of the last two years just based on pricing, the ira, drug exclusivity and generics coming before the end of the decade. The competitive landscape with so many companies vying for position here. That being said, and some of it is obviously company specific too with some of the failures it's had along its pathway from an oral obesity standpoint. But just looking out, I still do believe that we'll be sitting here, here in a couple of years and these will be the two dominant players in obesity, especially in injectables. Just don't think many companies can afford to be in the market.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, Jared, thanks so much for joining us. Always get your take. Jared Holds of Mizuho. You bought, right? You're in.

[Tim Seymour]

I'm not in.

[Melissa Lee]

Oh, you're not in.

[Tim Seymour]

I've certainly been bullish in my sentiment and feeling that this is overdone and a company that even without their ability to support and reinvest in their pipeline is growing 15 to 20%. I think the expectations for Mace seventh when they report is that if they reaffirm guidance, I think it's, I think it's, it's bullish for the stock. So I think you can own it here. I think the valuation is, is defensible.

[Melissa Lee]

I think so too in terms of reaffirming. At the same time, Lilly is going to have data on Retta True Tide, which is the injectable that is more effective than their current injectable, which is more effective than Novo's injectable and it will have an oral readout later this year. So it just seems like there's so many positive, potential positive catalyst for Lilly which are then headwinds and negative catalysts.

[Karen Feiderman]

For if that was if they're if Novo's only business with GLP1. Absolutely. But they still have a whole insulin business, a whole rare disease business that's being completely discounted. I get it. GLP ones for them are the lion's share of their revenue. But at this price being cut in half, the stock more than cut in half. I think you've almost priced all that bad news in.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, up next, the last word from the traders after today's sell off as we get you ready for another big week ahead. Be right back. Welcome back to FAST MONEY Markets closing out the week in the red amid more tariff announcements and some weak inflation numbers. Investors now looking ahead to what President Trump is dubbing Liberation Day. That is next Wednesday. But with uncertainty still looming large over the markets. Let's get the last word from each of our traders as we start this new, potentially very volatile week week. Tim?

[Tim Seymour]

Well, again we're going to hear what we're going to hear. I think it's about the payroll number and we know that there's a lot of caution amongst the C suite and I think there's not necessarily been an impact on job hiring yet. But these are starting to become critical numbers for the Fed.

[Melissa Lee]

Karen?

[Courtney Garcia]

Yes, I think, okay, I'm a long term investor. You don't need to do anything. Right. So I don't feel a need to do anything. My strong inclination is to buy. We talked about Amazon earlier. That's kind of name I would love to buy in the volatility that I'm sure we will see next week when we way or another.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah. Courtney and I agree.

[Guy Adami]

I think this, I think you want to stay invested here. I don't think you want to get nervous with all the volatility and if anything you want to make sure you're diversified and buy into these dips especially there's a lot of people of cash on the sidelines. You want to start to dollar cost average in here.

[Karen Feiderman]

So with Tim, you know, a year or so ago, Jerome Powell, I don't know what he was asked but he's in response to something he said, I see neither the stag nor deflation when asked about the possibility of that. And all of a sudden more and more people are talking about Tim talked about the top of the show, the final piece to that puzzle because it's clear inflation is a problem and it's clear growth is becoming a problem is the jobs number. And if that job number deteriorates, we're staring it in the iml.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, up next, final. You know, I'm not sure because I don't think the time is right for final trades but we're going to go find.

[Karen Feiderman]

We have two minutes.

[Tim Seymour]

You're talking about stag. Like what do you call it?

[Karen Feiderman]

You went to a party.

[Tim Seymour]

Stag party.

[Melissa Lee]

Is that what you want to talk about? We have an extra.

[Tim Seymour]

This is what happens. You did a dead air.

[Karen Feiderman]

It's not our fault.

[Melissa Lee]

It was the music. It was early. The music was early. I don't.

[Karen Feiderman]

Is that a fig? Did he do it?

[Melissa Lee]

Didn't even know he's in.

[I]

Anyway.

[Melissa Lee]

Don't blame no finger pointing here on this show. We're a team. Up next now. Now we'll go to final trip. It's time for the final trade. Let's go around the horn. Tim.

[Tim Seymour]

Let's not have that period of dead air again. Really uncomfortable. So was it. That's why I'm talking right now.

[Melissa Lee]

Breathing. You know.

[Tim Seymour]

Disney. Disney.

[Melissa Lee]

You are afraid of silence.

[Guy Adami]

Awful.

[Melissa Lee]

Karen.

[Courtney Garcia]

Yes. So a difficult week, but I'm always looking. What can I buy that's really undervalued? I think a good buy right here. Next week Amazon will be buying some of that. And happy birthday Jack and Lucy, my big twin.

[Melissa Lee]

Happy birthday.

[Courtney Garcia]

I love you guys.

[Guy Adami]

Courtney, this is actually my chart earlier but the large cap x the mag 7. I think there's probably going to continue to be volatility. We want to make sure you're spread out here. This is a good way to do so early.

[Karen Feiderman]

Must win for the Mets tonight.

[Tim Seymour]

It tells you a lot about guy dominant Crystal Myers.

[Melissa Lee]

Mel okay, thanks for watching Fast. Have a great weekend. Mad Money with Jim Cramer starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable. But neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer Check out the.

[Dan Nathan]

All new CNBC Sport podcast where sports.

[Tim Seymour]

Business and investing collide from media deals to team valuations, private equity moves and more. Catch the biggest business stories on the CNBC Sport Podcast. Listen on your favorite platform.