← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
Stocks Stage A Reversal.. And The Latest Health Care M&A 11/14/25
00:43:45
Stocks stage a comeback after waking up on the wrong side of the bed this morning. How the S&P 500, Nasdaq, crypto, and momentum stocks bounced off their bottoms of the day, and what it means for the market setup next week. Plus The latest M&A action on the horizon in the pharma space. What one top analyst sees in store for the sector, and the names on his radar with the best prognosis. Fast Money Disclaimer
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- [00:00]
A
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- [01:03]
A
Live from the NASDAQ markets out in the heart of New York City, Times Square. This is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight, a massive market rebound after a rough start to the session. Major indices are closing well off their lows of the day. What's a reversal signaling as we head into the weekend? Drug maker dealmaking Mark making some M and A moves to widen out its pipeline, what it means for the stock and the next potential deal coming for the space. Plus, Wal Mart named its next CEO less than a week away from earnings. Baba breaks down after a scathing report from the White House. And we are counting down to the biggest earnings report of the season. How markets are positioned ahead of Nvidia's latest results. I'm Melissa Lee, come to you live from Studio B at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Bono and Ice and Steve Grasso and Julie Beal. We start off with a big intraday reversal in markets. A session starting off in dire straits. The Nasdaq down almost 2% right out of the gate with the S and P and the Dow also deep in the red. Bitcoin falling below $95,000 and the big players all sinking all of this week's confirmation concerns from sky high valuations to fading hopes for a Fed rate cut seem to be coming home to roost. But things seem to change rather quickly. Major indices all closing well off their lows with the NASDAQ eking out a small gain. And even the biggest momentum trades got their mojo back. Super Micro Robinhood Micron and more seeing massive swings from their lows to the close. When all this is said and done, the markets end of the week basically where they started. So what should be the takeaway from today's market action? From this week's market action, Tim?
- [02:28]
C
Well, I think the market feels more nervous than, than it did. I mean, I know we could go intraday. Really, you know, that's, that's the load the markets needed to rally off of and they did or not retest. And I think there's a lot of people out there think that a test of that is a place to, to maybe take a little bit more cover. It was a week when Fed hawks reemerged. It was a week where some of the high momentum, certainly some of the frothy trades are places where I think there even was a lot of pain even on a rebound day. And it was a day on a rebound day, wasn't even that great of a rebound day because the rebound of failed by the end of the day. And so net. Net to where we were. Yes, absolutely. It was a, it almost felt like that turnaround Tuesday on a, on a Friday. But we also closed 25 or 30s and P handles off of the intraday highs after the intraday lows. So I don't think that the market feels that comfortable going into next week, even though again, some technical levels were held. Those are nice bounces. But we do have a Fed that wants to communicate that December is not a fait accompli. We talked about this last night. I'm not sure the 20 bips in December means a lot. It means more about just the Fed's tone, which may be less accommodative.
- [03:36]
D
Yeah, I think tone and glide path are definitely at the forefront here. I mean we've, we're through 90, 95% of earnings. We do have Nvidia, we do have some retail names coming on next week. But the bulk of earnings that has kind of given you your debt, your data points going forward. I think, you know, a lot of the wind did come out of that trade. I think the, the open air announcement kind of signaling perhaps a desire for Fed backing raise some eyebrows. I think you start to look into the financing and the circular typ dealing that's going on there. But with that said, I'm kind of in lockstep with Tim. I think my biggest takeaway is that one should expect some continued volatility and we've had quite suppressed vix for some time here. And so when you've had that Move, particularly since the bottom of April that we've seen from now year to date. You know, I just don't think you can expect there to be a straight line. With that said, I still do see this through somewhat of a positive lens because I do want some air to come out of the cells. What concerns one and kind of makes you a little bit hesit capital into winners is when you continue to see earnings grow, but you continue to see price to earnings expansion. At some point you do want to see some stability there so you can understand exactly what you're paying for for earnings and that you have confidence that what's driving that stock price forward is earning potential and not just people pumping money into that hysteria, if you will.
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A
I feel like if you want some of the wind to come out of the sales, you're sorely disappointed this week. I mean, what looked like it could have been the start of something bigger in terms of a downturn. We basically ended the week flat. So where does that lead? I mean, I don't know. Turnaround Tuesday and a Friday. You could make the case that a turnaround Tuesday and a Friday is even more bullish than turn on Tuesday on a Tuesday. Because going into the weekend, why would you want to be long? Why would you want to even up on the week?
- [05:21]
E
Markets never. I should say that markets more often than not don't bottom on a Friday. Right. So 10% chance in the history of the markets that they bottom on a Friday, they usually bottom on a Monday or Tuesday. So if that's the case, then you don't want to be into the weekend long. You know what didn't bounce today? Bitcoin didn't bounce. Etherium didn't bounce today. And the glide path, I love that term. If it's off for December, if it's off for December, then it could be off for January. So that's what we're worried about. But you know what is off Powell in May. So this is going to be.
- [05:57]
A
It's just a matter of time, you're saying just.
- [05:59]
E
It's just a matter of time. The market's always priced in four to six months ahead. But I do believe that it is the glide path and it is rates that sold the market off this week.
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A
Right. But of course, Julie, it's Nvidia. I mean, if Nvidia had a wildly bullish outlook next week in terms of capex, etc. I mean, that could change things on a dime right there.
- [06:18]
F
Yeah, I think it's the most. It's kind of the tent pole of all the tent poles right now for this theme is people need to feel very good that not only are the capex plans still intact, but there's a certain amount of broadening and there is visibility and backlog that's going to be there with or without federal backstops, which I think we can all agree don't sound great to us right now.
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A
Yeah, I mean, that, that comment was thrown out there and really investors took a hold of that. We are looking out next week for a lot of retail earnings and there has been concern about the consumer.
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C
Well, big box.
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A
Exactly.
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C
A lot of big box, big boxes out there.
- [06:52]
A
Exactly. In terms of the data points that get us concerned about the consumer, whether it be foreclosures in the housing market, delinquencies in auto, while they are ticking up, they're still historically low. But at the same time, if these big box retailers come out and sound cautious, is that going to be enough to give the market another reason to pause or do you think we're sort of, we're over that?
- [07:13]
C
Well, I think the market is also, you know, there was a time when a lack of data was pretty good because the Fed was seemingly just going to do what they were going to do and remain dovish in the absence of data. We're now a Fed that looks like they're trying to hold, hold their ground. Steve's right. I mean, at some point you're going to have a change in the Fed next year and maybe it's a completely different game. I hope it's not a game and I hope it's not completely different. But I do think you are going to have a Fed that's going to be more accommodating as we get into next year. But for now, it does feel as if there's still some questions around the consumer. I'm not buying that the market is, is hung up on valuations. I, you know, I understand that there are names in, call it Quantum and in digital land and in places that just ran up to extraordina levels, but I'm not worried about the valuations of the Mag 7 here. I'm just not, if anything now, I mean, met as in value territory and there's a handful of names here that actually look kind of interesting. I think there are a lot of investors that were hoping for more of a pullback. You're right, Mel. I think, I think seeing, you know, seeing Metta kind of trade around 600 and break below that is a place where, yes, a scary level, but I think A lot of people said if I could buy meta with a 500 handle on it, I'd be in buying it. And I think people want to own it.
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A
There's.
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E
I think the market will give it a pass. So if you see the department stores, you see retail sort of miss or miss, they're going to blame it on the government shutdown. And the government shutdown has ended. So I think you're going to see them get a pass. They'll wash away those numbers data that we do get or don't get that we maybe will never get. I think they'll look past. So I think this is all sort of a give me for the next two weeks, which leads me to what.
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A
Does it give me that they're basically what is the glide path in a given.
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E
A give me just means that they're not going to hold your feet to the flame. Right. So they're not going to worry about it. So I think if we can get past Thanksgiving, we have the hopes of having a great December, but I'm not sure we can get past Thanksgiving.
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C
Right.
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E
So I'm not.
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A
We will, yes.
- [09:14]
E
One way, one way or another, we're going to get, we're going to get past Thanksgiving. I just think if we abide our time for another week, hopefully. I'm looking for that bottom where we started on Monday or Tuesday. I'll feel much better if we get a rally in the first two days next.
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A
But even the bottom that we saw Monday or Tuesday wasn't really a real pullback. I mean what are we talking from all time highs, that pullback, you know, to Monday, less than 10%.
- [09:39]
C
We're not really that pulled back. Correct. Time and again it's as if the market wants to get a 5% or to call it a day.
- [09:48]
A
Yeah, exactly.
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D
I mean, I'm not here to make a mountain out of a molehill. I'm with you. It wasn't a tremendous pullback. I think the speed at which it happened and the swift change in sentiment is really what is called, you know, caused people to raise their eyebrows as far as retail earnings are concerned. I'm not sure the numbers are as important. So I think I kind of hear what you're saying, Steve. I do think the guidance is going to be very important though. You know, 2/3, 70% of GDP is retail spending. So I'm a little bit hesitant to just completely look past this.
- [10:17]
A
Right.
- [10:18]
D
And you do see this K shaped recovery continuing, but you see further deterioration in that bottom half. I do think that's somewhat concerning. If, if it affects inventory levels, if it affects what you're going to have to do with promotionals, and if you're, if you don't see the Black Friday and holiday spending kind of starting to pull through, I think that's somewhat concerning.
- [10:37]
C
I think.
- [10:38]
E
One last thing, Sorry. The I think what people think of this sell off, they might not have gotten the pullback this week, but I think everyone is looking at this year saying April was our sell off. So that's why we've gotten greedy with the market performance now where we've already had that drastic sell off. And then the bulls will tell you it only lasted nine days, really. So we have that drastic whiplash. Is anyone on this desk, is anyone in the retail world going to be able to thread that needle with selling the high, buying the low in 9 days, 12 days or 15?
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A
Meantime, as we mentioned, retail earnings do kick off next week. Home Depot reporting on Monday. We got Lowe's and Target on Tuesday. Wal Mart to follow on Wednesday. That's a big one. Joe Feldman of Telsey Advisory Group joins us now to look ahead to what we can expect. Joe, great to have you with us. Certainly interesting. You know, Wal mart changing its CEO now, Doug McMillan stepping down. I feel like Wal Mart is the big one next week to watch in terms of what they're going to say. And also given its valuation, I mean, Wal Mart is richly valued to itself, historically richly valued to the sector, richly valued to the S&P 500, richly valued to the Mag 7. So what do you feel about Walmart right now?
- [11:47]
G
Well, it does have a high valuation. We think it's warranted just given the transformation the company has undergone over the past decade, really under Doug McMillan. And I think they're going to carry that forward with new CEO John Furner. They've had a digital transformation. They've really embraced technology. They modernize their supply chain and by incorporating AI throughout their systems, they've really been able to operate more efficiently, target the customer more effectively. They're doing a better job now bringing in advertising revenue. They have a marketplace now. And so we think that they're doing a really good job and have an opportunity to perform well. I think the consumer, especially their consumer, we're probably going to hear is still a challenged area of the market. I think we're going to hear the paycheck cycle is still somewhat pronounced and becoming a little more pronounced even. But at the other end, they are capturing that more affluent consumer at the same time. So they're winning on all Fronts.
- [12:45]
A
What does Target need to do? What do you need to see from Target in order for it to be a buy? I mean it's got what an 11, 12 times forward P E or so, 5% dividend yield. We just talked to Jerry Swartz, the former vice, the vice chairman of Target and he basically said he got rid of all the shares and he would prefer Wal Mart over Target at this point, which is rare to hear a former executive actually vote for the competition in terms of where they would put their money.
- [13:10]
G
Yeah, listen, the setup here for Target is actually pretty good. You know, we're still neutral on it, but I do think that expectations are quite low. No one's expecting a really strong quarter. We're starting to hear anecdotes that the stores are looking better. We've seen it ourselves. They're ready for the holiday season. Maybe if they're operating a little bit more efficiently and can talk about going forward, having a little bit better trend through the holiday season that would get people a little more interested. It's still very much a show me story though. I think at this point the investor community is really split. Some people think this could go one or two ways and there's a lot of people thinking it's not going to go the right way. We're optimistic that they can maybe turn things around. I think new CEO Mike Fidelke is going to bring not necessarily fresh eyes but a fresh perspective. I think now as the boss, you got to give him a chance. He made some aggressive moves already to cut some staff at corporate and we'll see what he does in the stores if he can really jump up the operations there to improve the business.
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E
Joe, when you have such a CEO that Walmart had that was a performer, I always look at it as they have everything to lose. So I asked the question a different way. Instead of Target, who has everything to gain, who can capitalize on this shift the most?
- [14:24]
G
Well, I think the shift in the consumer right now is still in Walmart's favor. You know, if anything, the tariff related price increases are starting to flow through a little bit more heavily than we saw in the past. Now that the inventory has come in at that cost, you're going to see that in the first half. Now there are some tailwinds to offset some of that. Obviously I think tax withholdings have been a bit higher this year so people will see some of that benefit in the spring. But you're going to see continued pressure on prices. Walmart is still the best place to go right now to save money and to get the best value for your dollar.
- [14:59]
A
Joe, there are numerous reports that the Trump administration recognizes that the consumer is strapped, that there's a big swath of America that are having trouble making ends meet as evidenced by what happened with the mayor election here in New York City. And there's talk about things like a 50 year mortgage, $2,000 directly paid to the consumer. How do you view that in terms of the impact on retailers and who would benefit from such a, for instance a direct payment to the consumer?
- [15:28]
G
We think that that middle income and lower income consumers really where you'd see some of that benefit. Now I've seen some work done and so we haven't done it ourselves admitt where if you kind of combine the tariff related price pressure with maybe some of the tax benefit, they kind of neutralize each other for that middle and lower income consumer. Now if you gave everybody a $2,000 check or at least that sub $100,000 household income, that would be some pretty good juice. That would just spark some spending but they would be, it's like a candy rush. It would just be a short period of time. So I'm not sure that's the most effective way to kind of jumpstart things for that consumer. But you know, really bringing prices down, which you know the administration is trying to do right now, they are talking about trying to exempt certain goods like maybe coffee beans and bananas and avocados from some of the tariffs that would help the consumer.
- [16:21]
A
Joe, great to speak with you. Thank you, thank you. Joe Feldman. Julie Beal Walmart or Target?
- [16:30]
F
Oh, Walmart all day. I think that they're really able to capture this higher income consumer in a way that's pretty unique. And I think that part of what is actually hurting all of the anyone who's trying to appeal to the low income consumer is the recognition that we've lost so many immigrants that tend to be lower income. And so it's, I think it's less a function of you know, that customer is struggling. I think they are generally but I just think there's fewer of them walking in the door.
- [16:59]
D
Yeah, I would echo that. I don't even think it's close. It's Wal Mart. With that said, if one is looking for a beta play and you know, anecdotally we've said sometimes things are so bad that perhaps they're good, I think that that probably has the most short term upside potential. If they were to get it right. I expect Wal Mart to be much more of a Grinder or somewhat range bound, particularly as people sit back and see how the new CEO performs. I think it's much more of a safe play. But if you're truly looking for juice in your portfolio and you're willing to do it, I would probably advise it via options. I think that that Target offers you a little bit more beta at this point.
- [17:39]
A
The forward PE of Walmart is 39.
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C
Right. And the forward PE of Target is 12. Yeah. So I mean that's to me, that spread differential is a two and a half standard deviation event. And I realize different things have happened to these companies. It's not the same as just talking about an index and where it goes. But I'm sorry, mean reversion says I own Target here, actually on Wal Mart, but I do think you can own Target here and actually I own it for clients. I think it's a case where you are seeing now this perception of price and value at Target having returned after a couple of years of that being thrown out the window. I do think there's a dynamic here where you've started to also see some traffic recovery. And as I think we're all saying, you know, terrible to just bad is great news for Target and I think you can own it.
- [18:25]
A
Meanwhile, we've got some news alert here. Some big tech buying by Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway. Leslie Picker's got all the details. Leslie.
- [18:32]
H
Hey, Melissa. Yes, it is 13F day and we saw Berkshire Hathaway taking a new stake in Alphabet, 17.9 million shares. They're worth about $4.3 billion at the end of the quarter. You can see shares of Alphabet up about 1.4%. Google's parent company now a top 10. Berkshire Hathaway holding and the firm's biggest new tech position since its original Apple investment. Speaking of Apple, the firm trimmed Apple in the quarter, selling 42 million shares worth 15% of its stake. But Apple remains by a long shot Berkshire Hathaway's largest position. Alphabet lacked consensus among the big managers we tracked. CO2 bolstered its stake in Alphabet by 250% during the quarter for $1 billion plus stake. However, Baupost, Pershing Square and Appaloosa each reduced Alphabet in their respective portfolios. Appaloosa trimming a slew of big tech holdings during the quarter, which also included Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Nvidia. Viking also filed a short while ago when it dissolved an $850 million stake in Amazon, but took a new billion dollar plus stake in Microsoft and increased exposure to Meta by 250%. On financials, Berkshire Hathaway trimmed Bank of America by 6.1% to $29 billion. Vikings slashed B of A by 63% to hold roughly 600 million by quarter end. Now just a reminder, these positions are as of the end of Q3. They may have changed in the six weeks since now.
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A
Leslie, thank you. Leslie Picker, Interesting to hear the Alphabet and Apple shift given. Apple is pretty much at a record high at this point. Tim.
- [20:08]
C
Yeah, although some of this Apple move really has been since the end of that quarter. But as we have just heard that Berkshire still is is this is a dominant position for them. The move in Google though in the third quarter is unmistakable. So this does look like really great stock picking, especially if you think about where we we started the summer and the view on Google and Gemini and where they were in the air race and we didn't have the DOJ outcome. So this was a great time to get longer Google.
- [20:36]
A
Meantime, we just mentioned Apple. Well, looks like it's a port in the storm. The iPhone maker outperforming mega caps. This week, the latest headlines driving shares to new highs. But first, Alibaba tumbling on a scathing memo out of the White House. The details and the implications right after this. This is Fast Money with Melissa Lee.
- [20:56]
C
Right here on CNBC.
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I
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- [22:34]
A
Welcome back to Fast Money. Alibaba shares dropping almost 4% today. The drop coming after a report on a White House memo claiming the company is helping the Chinese military target the US. CNBC's Eamon Javers has got more on this. Eamon.
- [22:48]
J
Hey there, Melissa. Yeah. The Financial Times this afternoon reporting that Alibaba allegedly provides tech support for Chinese military operations against targets inside the United States. Now the paper citing a national security memo circulating inside the White House for that claim. So far there's been no comment from the White House yet on this report. The memo allegedly says the Chinese company supplies the People's Liberation army with access to customer data that includes IP addresses, WI fi information and payment records, as well as AI related services. And the FT reports that employees had transferred knowledge about zero day cyber exploits to the Chinese Army. In a comment to CNBC on that FT report, an Alibaba spokesperson said the assertions and innuendos in the article are completely false. We question the motivation behind the anonymous leak, which the FT admits they cannot verify. This malicious PR operation clearly came from a rogue voice looking to undermine President Trump's recent trade deal with China. Now, Melissa, by law, companies in China do have to share information with Beijing when that information is requested. That's one of the reasons why U.S. officials have been skeptical of Chinese owned firms with access to vast swaths of American data. That law went into place, Melissa, back in 2017. So since then, and this has been.
- [24:13]
A
The case there, did the White House have any response to this whole thing? Did they verify this memo? Did they acknowledge that it exists?
- [24:22]
J
No, no, no. No comment from the White House on it at all. We've been reaching out throughout the day. So no indication that this memo or no confirmation by us that this memo exists. And the FT in their report acknowledges that they can't of course confirm the accuracy of, of a memo that was leaked to them. They just know that the memo existed. They can't confirm the underlying facts, which are intelligence information and largely classified.
- [24:49]
A
Eamon. Thanks. Eamon Javers in Washington. Whether or not this is true, obviously we do not know if this is true or not. This just sort of underscores the nervousness around Chinese related companies. The role of the Chinese government when it comes to these Chinese companies and what the government, that is the Communist Party has access to. Tim, you're an investor in Alibaba?
- [25:11]
C
Yeah, I am. And I don't like the headline, although I'd like the headline a lot less if this was a memo coming from Beijing about, you know, involvement with the US Government. In other words, I'm not surprised to hear that Chinese tech firms have opponents in the White House or around the White House. But the reality is there are requirements for Chinese companies with the Chinese government. In fact, Alibaba's compliance with that is something that I think is great as a shareholder because ultimately I don't want Alibaba competing. I don't want Alibaba on the other side of the Chinese government. So more importantly, back to the chart of this stock. 140 is kind of your March highs. Could you trade down there? There's definitely some. There's some air here. I still think this is deep value when you're looking at mega cap tech. Maybe this is why people say but I stay long.
- [26:00]
D
Yeah. All I can say is this just frankly underscores some of the tension around senile U. S negotiations. Again, this memo was, or whatever you want to call, was very thin on detail. So it's hard to attach much confidence to it either way.
- [26:11]
A
You know what, we do want to go back to D.C. because the White House just issuing an update on tariff rates on a slew of items. Eamonn Javors, is that too? Eamon?
- [26:21]
J
Yeah, Melissa, this just within the past hour here from the White House. This is a 98 page document. It's a list of exemptions to tariffs on a range of products. So hundreds of products now being exempted from tariffs. We've been just going through it with our team over the past 45 minutes or so. Some of the items that are going to be exempted from tariffs now coffee, bananas, tomatoes, avocados, mangoes, limes. All of these products, obviously products that are imported in huge numbers to the United States, some that can't be grown in the United States for climate and other reasons. A whole bunch of other products here, beef, copper and others. So this is a significant rollback of tariffs on a huge range of products. Melissa. And you know, it comes amid this discussion of affordability in American politics. Are prices simply too high? And this seems to be an effort by the White House to do what they can to roll back the tariffs that President Trump imposed earlier this year on a whole host of these products to now help lower the cost of some of those products that's been increasing for American consumers.
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A
Eamon, thank you Eamon Jabbers.
- [27:33]
J
Yep.
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C
You look relieved. As far as avocados go, Melissa, Avocados, tomatoes, bananas.
- [27:38]
A
I mean, this is like my grocery list here, aside from the copper. Absolutely. So another effort to help the consumer here.
- [27:46]
E
Gas prices are down, egg prices are down. Midterms are coming up. You have to lower prices for everyone. Elections on Tuesday, number one thing on the, on the people's mind was affordability. You have to do whatever you can to lower prices.
- [27:58]
A
It's interesting, though, for them to do that and for the reason or one of the reasons to be affordability issues, because it was long argued by the administration that tariff increases would not actually translate into, I mean, it wouldn't really.
- [28:09]
C
Impact, wouldn't be inflationary.
- [28:11]
A
Exactly. And here we are saying that you know what, they were inflationary.
- [28:14]
C
Well, it's also interesting because, because on some level you've removed the specific goods, but you've kept the companies under the other countries under the spotlight. So this is its political policy now is really the most important dynamic in tariffs. It's not actually the underlying themselves, or so it seems. Not sure.
- [28:31]
A
Yeah, Julie, what's your take?
- [28:33]
F
You know, I think the biggest problem that the administration has is they have raised a ton of revenue with tariffs and it's very hard to walk away from that revenue. We know that because Biden didn't walk away from the tariffs that Trump initially put in in his first administration. So I think that it's kind of a tricky position that they're in because they have to really be able to recognize that affordability is a problem, that they're not doing a great job addressing it, that the tariffs exacerbate it. But now they have to walk away from this revenue stream that has been really helpful for them.
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C
All right.
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A
There's a lot more fast money to come here.
- [29:04]
C
Coming up next, shining Apple, how the.
- [29:08]
G
Long lagging tech giant has become a.
- [29:10]
A
Port in the storm during this week's volatility.
- [29:13]
C
Plus, more wheeling and dealing in the.
- [29:15]
A
Pharma as Merc makes a splash and.
- [29:17]
G
Novo Nordisk shakes up its board.
- [29:20]
C
The prognosis for this space next. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square.
- [29:27]
A
We're back right after this. Hey, friends, this is Audie Cornish, host of CNN this morning and the assignment. And guess what? Every story you care about, every angle you want unpacked is now streaming on cnn. That means you can catch my show or other CNN programming whenever you want on your favorite device. And a subscription also gets you access to exclusive video series and unlimited articles. So subscribe to CNN@CNN.com subscription.
- [30:04]
B
And now a next level moment from AT&T business. Say you've sent out a gigantic shipment of pillows and they need to be there in time for International Sleep day. You've got AT and T5G so you're fully confident, but the vendor isn't responding and International Sleep Day is tomorrow. Luckily, AT&T5G lets you deal with any issues with ease, so the pillows will get delivered and everyone can sleep soundly, especially you. AT&T5G requires a compatible plan and device coverage not available everywhere. Learn more@att.com 5G Network.
- [30:35]
A
Welcome back to Fast Money, a rollercoaster ride for stocks to end the week. The Dow finishing off its lows but still shedding 310 points. The S and P basically flat while NASDAQ edged into the green crude oil jumping 2% after Ukrainian attack forced a Russian port in the Black Sea to suspend exports. WTI settling back above $60 a barrel. Meanwhile, Reuters reporting iPhone sales in China rose 22% in the month since the launch of the latest device. The stock ending the day down slightly but still outperforming Most of the Mag 7 this week. It's also the only member of the group with a gain in the month of November. We talked about this briefly in the context of Berkshire Hathaway trimming its position in Apple, although it is still the largest position in the portfolio. But how do you feel here in terms of the low expectations about the iPhone? Maybe that paid off because it was a great setup for the and I.
- [31:23]
E
Think the story has been out there for so long about China sales and about sales completely across the board with Apple that everyone was sort of not shocked anymore and they're, they're anesthetized to it if you will. But Google buying Google to me sounds like the safety bet. So the sell on the other side and Apple they've made a ton of money on over the years. I just think Apple late to the dance on AI not spending hand over fist is going to reap benefits with a tailwind for them.
- [31:50]
D
Yeah, I mean I think the China sales definitely shows that there is some moat there and that you're not as worried about them losing market share to local competitors. And then to Steve's point in terms of the capex spend that really hasn't been there. So when you start to see that trade be deflated, it doesn't affect Apple. With that said, as you said, you have given up some performance but in terms of going into an increased volatility type of trading sessions going forward, perhaps it does offer you a little bit of defensiveness, if you will, within the Max seven space. I mean, I think the knock on it is going to be the multiple. I think that's been the case going forward. But in terms of the the washout headline risk, I don't think it's there versus some of the other names I'm.
- [32:29]
A
Going to play the role of Dan Nathan. I know he's known as a silver liner, silver lining trader, but when he's not, which is actually most of the time, he might say that that jump in terms of sales in China was because it was off a low base and that they are still in fact losing market share to the likes of Huawei and some of the other domestic players out there. Julie Beal should we be still concerned longer term about the China story given Apple does not have that AI offering right now when the other Chinese competitors do?
- [33:00]
F
I mean personally I don't think so because I think that for them it's more about a brand than it is about the functionality. Right? If I cared about the functionality of my iPhone I would have dumped it for a Samsung. It's a much better product like objectively right. But I am so knit into their ecosystem and the branding and like the blue text bubble frankly that it's really, really hard to undo from that. And they have positioned themselves as a real luxury brand but the ability to do mass market volume like we've never seen before. So I'm not as concerned about China situation and I personally think that they have really looked at a lot of what's happening in AI and saying, you know what, we've always done well being a fast follower. Let's let everyone spend all the money. Let's let everyone spend all the money and we can scoop it up because we have the customer base that's really tied in to all of our platform.
- [33:47]
E
Do you judge blue versus Green?
- [33:49]
A
You know I do feel like when a green text bubble pops up in the conversation, I wonder if it's sort of the outlier.
- [33:55]
C
I wonder if they're safe people.
- [33:57]
A
Wonderful. Has that green bubble coming up. Merck paying a hefty premium. The latest blockbuster drug making deal. How the company hopes Zadara Therapeutics can improve its pipeline and the other names that could be on Big Pharma's shopping list. That's next. Missed a moment of fast Catch us anytime on the Go Follow the Fast Money podcast.
- [34:16]
D
We're back right after this.
- [34:22]
A
Welcome back to fast money. Merck making waves today with a $9.2 billion deal to acquire flu drugmaker Sadara Therapeutics. Sadara shares more than doubling on the news. While Merck closed flat, the pharma giant is racing to replenish its pipeline ahead of Keytruda's 2028 patent expiry. The cancer drug accounted for nearly half of Merck's revenues in 2024. For more, let's bring in Mizuho healthcare strategist Jared Holz. Jared, great to have you with us. Even prior to the deal, Sidera, that drug, it looks, looked like it was going to be a blockbuster eventually. It's in phase three right now. Phase two had very good results. Still. Do you think Merck overpaid? I mean, does this sort of, I don't know, underscore the very, I don't want to say desperate, but the dire situation that a lot of these big pharmas are under in terms of patent expirations?
- [35:09]
I
Yeah, thanks so much for having me. First off, I'm not really sure they overpaid. I mean, the press release suggests, or the report suggests multiple bidders. So Merck was not alone here. The 2030, 2031 estimates is what I've been using to look at valuation in terms of what the deals are going with respect to revenue and value that the companies are getting bid at. This was in the four to five times range, which seems pretty practical and really in line with a lot of the recent deals. I'm not really sure they overpaid, but to your point, I do think there's a lot of urgency out there.
- [35:49]
A
Yeah. How much better, if at all, does Merck look compared to peers with this deal, with the Verona deal, with the Acceleron deal now, sort of plugging in some of the holes in the future pipeline.
- [36:02]
I
Yeah, well, I think they've done a pretty good job. I mean, they're clearly, you know, using this string of pearls strategy to, you know, supplement Keytruda, which we all know is going to be a big issue for them in the latter part of the decade. And if you, if you take Acceleron and you, and you put on top of that Verona and then you add Sadara today, and they've done other deals as well. I think they're setting themselves up pretty well now. Some could argue, you know, maybe they should have done one larger transaction. You know, I know you've talked a lot about Insemet in the past or Argenics. Those are possible. I just don't know that there are sellers. So they're doing it this way.
- [36:42]
C
So Jared, then does that mean that we're going to see every other company who we talk about almost every night on this show? When we bring up health care, who's got a patent, Cliff is scrambling just as hard. And we also talk about the excitement and maybe even in the biotech space more than anyways any other part of this sector because of the M and A activity. Just kind of curious how that changes your approach, what institutions are thinking, trying to get ahead of what might be the next one.
- [37:08]
I
Yeah, definitely, Tim. I mean there's so many pharma companies in a similar position with, you know, Bristol, Sanofi, Amgen. I think they're all going to be more acquisitive in 2026. Part of, you know, part of me thinks that there have already been a lot of deals that have been done. This year is going to be one of the busiest on record in terms of volume, not necessarily dollars spent, but, but definitely the number of deals. But, but yeah, and biotech's been on fire. I think this is one big reason there's been deal after deal in this space really since the summer. And we've gotten several transactions met Sarah, obviously with multiple bidders. Novo and Pfizer Avadel got bid up again today by Lundbeck. We thought that was going to go to Alkerme's last week. And then today with this Merck deal, sounds like there was another bidder here too. So it's really across the board, I think to your, to your question, who needs assets? I think they all do. You know, I look at Bristol, maybe Bristol, Amgen, Sanofi as more, but I think all of them are kind of subject to more deal making.
- [38:11]
A
Given this fevered pace of dealmaking, Jared, and the acknowledgement that something needs to be done urgently by many of these big cap pharma companies. Has health care become completely investable? I mean, I respect the fact that you've come on the show and said that it is not investable at certain points in time and that there's no enthusiasm around the sector. Sector. But things really seem to have changed.
- [38:31]
I
Yeah, I mean, the only sector I've liked here, you know, to your point, has been biotech since the summer. The rest of it I feel like is still encumbered with a lot of risks and obviously we're still looking at a sector that's underperformed the market, albeit not nearly as much today as it was a few weeks ago. I think if you're playing this strategy if you believe that there's going to be more deal making, small and mid cap biotech clearly the place to be. I do think there are risk factors across the sector and it's so difficult. Right, because this, this industry or this sector is really multiple industry groups into one. You got managed care, you got medical devices, pharmaceuticals. It's very tough to make a call on it in totality. But you know, obviously if the M and A fervor continues at this pace, you certainly want to be long biotech into next year here.
- [39:22]
A
Jared, great to see you. Thank you. Thanks a lot of Mizuho. As you already mentioned, it's kind of difficult when you talk about an ETF or just a sector because it's so sort of varied when you sort of dig into it. Julie Beal, I know that you've had sort of tangential plays on health care which are interesting.
- [39:40]
F
I mean I'm not really comfortable like being in small and mid cap. It's really not comfortable to try to be investing in biotech. Most of these are. They only have one drug that's up for approval and it just doesn't feel like a good place if you're a quality investor to be hanging out. But I do like on of these weird specialty companies that do medical devices and I think they're a better place to play where I can avoid things like patent cliffs and quite the level of competition that we see in small cap pharma and they're not as dependent on one single drug either. So it's a better place for me in small cap land.
- [40:15]
C
Yeah, I think it's interesting also talking about those ETFs, IBB versus XBI. So IBB is very concentrated with the big big folks that we know, whether it's Gilead or an Amgen and whatnot. The XBI obviously is not necessarily market cap weighted. So that's just something to think about. Give Mark some credit here. I mean this is a stock that that really rallied on that Verona deal seemingly is rallying here and it's fascinating because you know, go back to my Pfizer year which spent $30 billion to overcome a cliff that was not only Covid related but also pipeline related and the stock suffered from it. It's a prove me story on some level for that pipeline. Yet Mark seems to be getting the benefit here.
- [40:56]
A
Coming up in video back in the green today but down so far this month. What will next week's earnings mean for the stock? A look at what options traders are expecting from the heavyweight. That's Next. But first, Boeing gets back to work Defense where workers approving a new contract that ends a three month long strike. More on that when we come right back. Welcome back to Fast Money. Boeing defense workers agreeing to a contract to end a more than three month long strike. Shares of the plane maker down almost 17% in that period. Steve, this is one you've been watching.
- [41:27]
C
Yeah.
- [41:27]
E
And we had good news from them last week as well. They dropped the criminal charges against them. Then we have this good news coming out of labor for them. I think both of them were somewhat factored in. But I'm looking for 2026 return to profitability, return to generating free cash flow, ramping production on the triple seven and the most of all a duopoly. So I think you're going to be up in this stock if you hold it.
- [41:51]
D
Yeah. I think the free cash flow story is really why you want to look to invest here. I think it's had a pretty tremendous run here. So I'm not certainly sure I'd catch a falling life. Looking at the chart here. I think somewhere between 175 and 180 is probably where you, you. It's probably a good entry point here.
- [42:04]
C
Yeah. Being bland. I mean everybody knows that that's my name. And I like the story. I like it for the free cash flow return. In fact, I think there's probably free cash flow going on in this quarter that the street hasn't given credit for because they can't. I feel very comfortable with this one, especially in a market where we have the kind of volatility we do.
- [42:25]
A
Coming up, can next week's earnings get Nvidia back on track? That's what the options market is betting on. The big bullish action in this tech tighten. That is Next, more fast money into. Welcome back to Fast Money. Nvidia headlining another huge week of earnings coming up with the heavyweight heads into Wednesdays under a bit of pressure. The stock is down more than 6% in November, underperforming the broader tech sector this month. But option traders are betting this name is due for a move higher. My CO joins us with the action he might.
- [42:57]
D
Mike, Hi there. So, always busy. Nvidia traded about 3 1/2 million contracts today. That is above average. The busiest contract not expiring today were the November 200 strike calls. We saw almost 100,000 of those trading for over $3 a contract. Buyers of those obviously making bullish bets. And the options market is implying a move of about 6.4% which is in line with the eight quarter average of about 6%. We actually acquired some Nvidia and put on a buy right in this thing yesterday. And I think that's a, probably a good way to play this going into the print. So you would be buying the stock. In our case we were selling some short dated calls, but I think some others could look to sell some longer dated options. Maybe the January 215 calls, which you could get just under $5 for those, get a nice standstill yield and still have some material upside participation. And those calls you're selling are above those recent highs.
- [43:51]
A
Bono and how are you playing Nvidia?
- [43:53]
D
Well, listen, I think Mike's trade is a vote of confidence. You're ultimately buying the shares so you are taking the risk there. That's really you standing up here. I think the fact that it's pulled back going into earnings is probably a setup that you want to see and being that this thing bounces around a little bit, it's an opportunity for you to take in an additional premium and lower your cost basis going into the print.
- [44:12]
A
How do you think about expectations? We mentioned the stock move but, but I mean with all the announcements of.
- [44:17]
C
Capex increases, I don't think there's going to be a whole lot they can surprise us with. On the downside, especially with the announcement they made two weeks ago about where they're seeing sales on Blackwell and Hopper into 26. I think we've gotten a lot of data points here. I'm long.
- [44:34]
A
Yeah. Julie.
- [44:35]
F
Yeah, I think it's a check the box kind of quarter. Mostly what we want is some commentary about how 2026 is shaping up up and who are the biggest buyers. That's what I care about the most.
- [44:45]
E
Now we've heard from, to your point, we've heard from all the hyperscalers and everyone's throwing money at these chips. So there's not really a lot to Tim's point that we're going to be surprised but to the downside so. But my other side of me tells me that things don't go grow completely to the sky and never come back. I'm willing to say for probably the 16th time, I'm ready to say Nvidia. I mean I've been, I've been wrong on it.
- [45:13]
C
I've been wrong.
- [45:14]
E
I, I, no, I don't, I don't.
- [45:15]
J
I don't own it.
- [45:16]
E
And, and I was, I was very bullish on it very early. But I've missed this for the last year or so. I just think it's got to stop at some point.
- [45:25]
A
Mike Co thank you. Up next, final trades, a programming note and something to look forward to on Monday, a Fast Money podcast.
- [45:41]
C
How about that?
- [45:42]
A
The madman, Jim Cramer. He will join us for the very first time right here on set at the Nasdaq. He's been on the show before, of course, but never on this desk with us. We'll talk about these wild market moves, his new book and much, much more. That is Monday on Fast Money. And also by the way, Brian Kelly will be here. BK Final trade time. Julie Beal Help Equity FSA growth is.
- [46:05]
F
Happening and this is a nice hedge if inflation actually and interest rates go up.
- [46:09]
C
Tim Jim, it's about time. Good to see you on Monday. British Tobacco I think continues its breakout and a nice dip on I think.
- [46:17]
D
You'Ve got to pay attention to the volatility that we're seeing here. I want to reduce a little bit of data. I think AP gives you that. But still with with continued upside, the.
- [46:25]
E
Comfortable owning some Boeing here. Jim, bring some tequila.
- [46:29]
A
Thanks for watching Fast. Have a great weekend. Mad Money with Jim Cramer starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer For 140 years, MultiCare has been in Washington prioritizing long term solutions, partnering with local communities and expanding access to care. Together, we're building a healthier future. Learn more@mycare.org.