← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
Stocks Surge After Soft CPI Data… And Mag7 On Deck To Report 10/24/25
00:43:59
Stocks rallying to record highs as long-awaited CPI data comes in lower-than-expected. How the latest inflation read could pave the way for more rate cuts by the Fed at next week’s meeting, and how the traders are positioning ahead of the busiest week of earnings season. Plus, the options action on the Mag7 names reporting, and why nuclear stocks are going radioactive on a new power deal. Fast Money Disclaimer
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Melissa Lee
That's the power of Dell AI with Intel Inside. Upgrade today by visiting Dell.com AI PC live from the NASDAQ markets in the heart of New York City's Times Square on a record breaking day where The Dow closed above 47,000 for the first time. This is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. A record rally. Major indices all notching all time closes today. The headlines driving the gains and whether there's more upside to come. And big tech on deck. More than $15 trillion worth of companies reporting earnings next week. Will the numbers keep the trade in rally mode? We'll debate that. Plus nuclear gains for uranium stock, share of Hoka Maker Deckers run out of steam and zooming higher. Why the chartmaster says now is the time to buy the one time work from home, darling. I'm Melissa Lee coming to you live from Studio B at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Feinerman, Courtney Garcia and Carter Braxton Worth. We start off with a sound of records being broken across Wall Street. The Dow nearly 500 points for its first ever close above 47,000. The S&P breaching the 6800 level and the NASDAQ leading the gains jumping more than 1%. Small caps not sitting out this rally though the Russell 2000 fell just short of its own record. It notched its best week since August. Today's moves come after a slightly softer than expected CPI print the only official economic data released since the government shutdown at the start of the month. Consumer prices rising 3.10of a percent in September versus the prior month and 3% from the year before. That boosted hopes that the Federal Reserve can stay on its rate cutting path at next week's meeting. All this ahead of the busiest week of earnings season with nearly a third of the S&P 500 and more than a third of The Dow set to deliver results. Five of the MAG7 stocks are headlining the action. Alphabet, Metta, Microsoft, Amazon and Apple all on the calendar. So the Fed decision looming, a slew of megacap results to come. What's today's strength?
- [02:45]
Tim Seymour
Tell you Tim, it tells me that we have a green light to at least the best month of the year from the Fed's perspective. From the earnings season's perspective, folks falling at home. I mean we talk about this every night. It's been a very solid earnings season and we have next week is kind of the week and then a couple after that but you know we're 10.2% EPS growth which is better than expected coming in. So when you combine that with the rest of the macro that we do get, that's either not really the usual data we're getting from the government but I think you have a great backdrop of you're hearing from companies how resilient their earnings profile is. You are hearing from the top down that most people don't even really know what owner's equivalent rent is. All you need to know is that this is the best sign we've seen an owner's equivalent rent for an overall CPI number in months. So it was a relief especially when so much focus was on the CPI given it is the only data point seemingly that the Fed has that somewhat coincident although it's backward looking. So look, I think this is a great backdrop. I think we've had some of the froth taking out of markets. I think there's a lot of skepticism out there and in some sense I really still think the pain trade is higher.
- [03:54]
Melissa Lee
Yeah Karen, the setup though starting off at record highs going into earnings season is not necessarily ideal in terms of price action.
- [04:02]
Tim Seymour
Right.
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Karen Feinerman
Right now I always say I like to much rather go in with the earnings with the stock being down like I would like to see the banks were down thankfully going in. I think that as Tim said earnings season off to a really nice start starting with the banks not just for their own business but also what they're seeing in the rest of the economy and the activity they're seeing on the deal front. So sort of animal spirits are out there. We haven't seen the AI, we haven't seen earnings yet though and that obviously is a tremendous driver and so we'll get a lot more information next week but I don't know, I feel like this was a little, a little frothy off of one piece of data that seemed good, a little bit cool which is good but if you step back a little, you don't need to step back very far and say, well, you know, the Fed is still far from where they want to be on the inflation front, but as each month goes by, we get closer to a Fed that will be dovish no matter what.
- [04:58]
Melissa Lee
Yeah.
- [04:59]
Courtney Garcia
And I think what you're seeing today is people are kind of sighing relief and realizing, okay, the Fed is very likely going to be cutting rates because with the inflation report it's really not going to hinder them from doing so. I think that's what people weren't convinced of, especially as we're getting no government data right now. So we did actually get this piece of CPI data. The question is, are we going to get that next month? Because they, they had already collected this data, they just couldn't report on it, which is why this could come out. They just aren't collecting the data right now for next month. So at this point it's that much more important that we listen to everything that these earnings reports are saying and what they're saying they see in the health of the consumer and the economy. And so that's where I think the banks have been really important. Next week we have Visa, MasterCard. But as much as the air is the story, I do want to hear how is the overall consumer doing? And I think we're going to continue to hear that.
- [05:43]
Carter Braxton Worth
I mean my opinion is there's no room for error. Right. The market's full, so not the greatest setup. Going into the Big five reporting. There is some statistics around and you can look at this where with the big five all report in the same week, it's not been a positive week, doesn't mean it's a down or a crash, but a lot is already expected. And so my hunch is we gapped up today, I would fade it into next week.
- [06:09]
Melissa Lee
Is there anything to, you know, this observation that, that there does seem to be still intact a buy the dip mentality, that every dip that we faced we've gone higher, people are still willing to get in to the markets. And does that make this rally more durable in your view?
- [06:25]
Tim Seymour
I think it absolutely does. And I do think while we've had guests come on say that they think money markets are actually seeing inflows and maybe that's a better place to be and that's by the way, that makes a lot of sense if you're worried about where markets sit here, I can't argue with that. But there's certainly an argument as we saw the 10 year make a decided move below 4% today that investors who are in the bond market and in money markets are looking at that cash and saying it's not earning me as much as it used to. And I feel like I'm missing something. So I think you have a backdrop also where again we had a services PMI to flash pmi. But it does give you some sense that the biggest part of our economy was actually better than expected. And I throw in that Michigan consumer estimate that was, that was worse than expected which you know, those are the two things you'd want if you're playing purely on macro here and a CPI today. So Carter's right. I mean look it's, it's hard to feel as if everybody doesn't think matter is going to save the day. Right. This is, I mean every quarter met is extraordinary. Their top lines in other words they live up to that, that peg that price to earnings growth ratio and they continue to deliver on that. But I look at semiconductors making an all time high today and a new relative high and they're now up close to 40% this year with the NASDAQ only 18. We know what roughly percent of the overall market they are and they're driving things and I guess we've seen the volatility inherent in that sector. But I don't know why investors aren't chasing more of this.
- [07:50]
Carter Braxton Worth
Well, a couple of things. The buy the dip is very much prevalent at the individual investor level. It is not going on at the institution. Institutions are not behaving that way. Hedge funds are not behaving that way. And so you know, that's what makes a market. But the big two that matter the most and it's not the one that I think is economic sense of Metta yeah has still only slightly above its February peak meaning all stocks peaked in February. All stocks crashed. Covid and Tariff. Excuse me and then all stocks have recovered. Matter is basically unch from its February high and so is Amazon. These two have to perform right. Apple has finally made the new otherwise what? Otherwise you're having bifurcation among the champions. We've got bifurcation in the market. There's stocks that are, you know, struggling versus stocks but if you, if these two can't join the other three it means that there's a defect.
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Karen Feinerman
So there's something really interesting about Matt right there is their part of their business advertising. I think that's going to be really good. That's really important. That's what drives all the cash flow which is all being used now for Capex, right, These Capex numbers are getting bigger and bigger and we need to hear a really compelling case about return on that Capex. We know for part of the reason it's right, they are getting return.
- [09:06]
Melissa Lee
Right.
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Karen Feinerman
But the spend has gone into overdrive and so we really need to hear that because this is central to the entire AI theme. And if we're not hearing about, I don't think a huge other, a new bump in Capex would be received that well.
- [09:23]
Melissa Lee
I really don't receive it well.
- [09:24]
Karen Feinerman
I wouldn't be delighted about it. Right. This is a company that has gone from giant cash hoard to flat, basically cash and debt about equal. So I'm a little bit concerned about that. And I think that, I mean, we're seeing, you know, the IBM news today about, oh, we can use an amd, relatively inexpensive AMD chip. And you sort of wonder, all right, about all of this spend. So that's going to be really important because that is central to the AI.
- [09:53]
Melissa Lee
Yeah. And going back to Carter's point about things being priced to perfection, you need to see them deliver on these metrics. Right. There is no room for, oh, maybe the return wasn't that strong. Even though we're spending this much money on CapEx. I mean, you need to see it with these valuations.
- [10:08]
Courtney Garcia
I do agree, and I think specifically in the trade, I mean, you're just seeing those valuations go up and you're seeing money continuing to pour in there. But yes, I mean, at a certain point in time, I think you bring up the Capex, which is a really good point. But you know, my only other hesitation there is that's been the case the last several quarters. We've been saying you need to see a return on it. Investors really haven't cared that much. So I don't know, like, is this going to be the quarter? They care at some point it's going to happen, but I don't know when that is. And in the meantime, people just, you get that fear of missing out. People just continue to pour money there. So as much as like, yes, I don't think that's where you should be pouring your money. I don't know if that's over yet.
- [10:40]
Melissa Lee
But don't valuations make that more, doesn't that make it come more, come to the forefront? I mean, in terms of that question of the return on capital, I mean, when you're, when you're at these levels, right, and the economy looks like it could, you know, we're sort of on a Looks like good footing right now, but you never know. I mean don't you want to see that even more so this quarter, does it come now? Does it matter now?
- [11:01]
Tim Seymour
I think the question you're asking is will, will valuations finally matter and or at least if we look at the names we're talking about and that they're full and that leaving aside positioning but that the valuations are full. But I would just get back to that's not. That has not been an ingredient to sell off markets. That's not been an ingredient. Even during the pullbacks that we've had, we've heard no inclination or hesitation about the capex spend from all of them. So if this is really a driver on air forces and truly what you want to hear out of Nvidia, which is going to be a couple of weeks later, I just don't know. I'm not going to sit here and tell you that there couldn't be some surprises in there. I think we've even had Microsoft disappoint once or twice in the last four quarters. We've had met a disappoint once, I think in the last three. There's no question positioning could send you into that type of response. I don't think there's going to be anything fundamental they're going to tell you that's going to be a disappointment.
- [11:54]
Melissa Lee
Let's get some more on the markets and the reaction to CPI today. Let's bring in CNBC contributor Peter Book for our Chief Investment officer at one point, BFG Wealth Partners. Peter, great to have you with us and I want to sort of fold you into this conversation that we're having. The CPI gives us a green light to think that there's two more cuts but at the same time we are at record highs across the board entering a huge earnings season. What's your view of the markets and how we are valued right now?
- [12:19]
Peter Bocvar
Well now relative to 20, 25 earnings estimates, obviously we have more to come with Q4 after Q3 we're trading at 25 times and Tim mentioned valuations don't matter. They don't matter until they do and I'm not sure when they will with those big names that we're going to see earnings next week. The interesting thing that I find is that now that they've all turned themselves into highly capital intensive businesses with much higher debt levels, much less cash flow, the market is still valuing them at the same multiples as they were when they were asset light and very cash generative. Now that can Continue. But I think that that's something that investors should think about particularly when they digest next week's earnings, particularly the capex levels relative to revenue that are now at extraordinary levels.
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Melissa Lee
It is amazing to think that you have gone from a picture where you rewarded the companies for not spending all that being asset light to now being asset heavy because they are spending on all this hardware, etc. And expending all this capex and still getting the same valuation just sort of turns it all on your head. In terms of where you see value in the markets though you do like energy at this point. You think that that's a place where you can still see some gains.
- [13:39]
Peter Bocvar
I love oil prices here. I think they're dirt cheap. I think the catalyst this week with the sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil in addition to India and China, related to the sanctions, buying less oil I think is a major catalyst. And even going into this, I've been thinking that we are setting up ourselves for a rally that has to do with US shale that is no longer a major contributor to global oil supply, that is OPEC production which is not keeping up with quotas. The whole world is bearish on oil. Every day I hear about a swimming in it, But I think $60 is dirt cheap. The other area that I love that's been thrown out the window this year are the consumer staples stocks which are now trading like bonds with 4%, 5% dividend yields, cheap valuations. And if the economy does continue to slow, I think this could be a port of safety for investors.
- [14:41]
Tim Seymour
Hey Peter, Tim. Yeah. We've been talking about the oil trade. We've been talking about oh over the last couple of days and the comment has generally been don't sleep on energy because just when you're not expecting it has a 70% move or a 70% half year, etc. And what you're talking about sets up well, what does today's CPI do on a week when gold had this extraordinary pullback from a sense that, you know, this had gotten not only over its skis but this was, you know, now really into maybe margin territory. There could be an argument that if there really is less inflation, you have removed one of the dynamics for gold. Your gold bull. I'm a gold bull. Anything change for you this week?
- [15:19]
Peter Bocvar
Not really. I mean CPI was still 3% and if you look at the treasury market today, after initially rallying and seeing a dip in yields, they pretty much close to where they were right before the number came out. So I still Think that we're stuck at around this 3% level on inflation. To me the question with gold is it went vertical, it was due for a rest, it would do for a consolidation phase. We know whenever we see a chart pattern like that it's getting way too ahead of itself. But the main driver of gold we know is central bank buying. That has now been followed by retail and institutional buying. And as long as that central bank buying which is price agnostic remains, I still think that the risks are much for much higher gold prices, silver prices after this period of consolidation.
- [16:07]
Melissa Lee
Peter, I'm wondering in terms of the view that there will be two more Fed rate cuts for the rest of the year. I mean we are in a period where we will be in a vacuum when it comes to government data and the Fed is going to have to use other means of data and that could include earnings season and so a lot will depend on some of the company commentary. We already know that, you know, within the CPI household expenses were mixed. There are some areas of, of of I don't want to say strength but rising inflation or growth and some areas where prices have come down. In the beige book, companies were dealing with higher prices. The way they dealt with it was mixed in terms of whether they would absorb it or pass on to the consumer. I mean, I'm just wondering how you think about this sort of vacuum that we're going to be in and whether or not you think it is a slam dunk that the Fed from here rate cut after this meeting next week or if there's a risk that maybe that doesn't happen because the data will actually show us because we're going to be looking at company information and these sort of softer data points that things aren't as rosy.
- [17:07]
Peter Bocvar
Well, I do think that the Fed has plenty of ways of getting a lot of information on the economy earnings. As you said they can just read through a lot of earnings transcripts, which I do and you can get a great finger on the pulse of the economy. I think with the, with the markets pricing in the Fed is Powell has got five meetings left and right now with the Fed cut next week it's going to take the effective fed funds rate down to about 385. Well if you look at their dot plot, their long range real rate is 1%. Well we just got a 3% CPI. Yes, they look at CPCE but you're talking around 3. Well the Fed funds rate next week is going to be 3.85. So you're at their long term Real neutral rate. So yes, maybe they'll throw us another one in December, but I don't really see how they're cutting that much more after that. While Powell is Fed chair and he's got three meetings that he'll preside over next year. Now, of course, whoever replaces him, that 1% real rate will be thrown out the window and they'll cut rates to wherever they want. But as long as Jay Powell is chair, over the next five meetings, I see one, maybe two cuts. If they're going to stick to that 1% long term real rate goal, one, maybe two.
- [18:27]
Melissa Lee
All right, Peter, thank you. Great to speak with you. Peter Bocvar. What do you think, Karen? I mean, it strikes me, you know, when we go through earnings season, especially when we hit the retail earnings, the commentary about prices seem to be much more conservative in terms of, you know, the consumers being more choiceful. They're, you know, the basket sizes are smaller. They're, you know, things like that which make it worse, I think in terms of the price picture.
- [18:52]
Karen Feinerman
One thing that I thought was really interesting, that was Capital One's numbers, right? And I thought they were very good. And so I feel like they have a day and bank of America maybe more than others, have a really good look at the consumer. That consumer seems fine to me. Even if they are pressured, they're still employed. I think that every year people think I won't spend this much on Christmas this year, then they do every single time.
- [19:19]
Melissa Lee
Santa always has to come. All right, let's get to intel here racing a big post. Earnings pop to end the day fractionally higher. The semi Stock had jumped nearly 8% early in the session, hitting levels last seen in April 2024. After last night's report. Q3 revenues topping Wall street expectations thanks to a bounce back in demand for Intel's core PC processors. During the quarter, the chip maker had received strategic investments from Nvidia Softbank as well of course, as the US Government. Carter, what do you make of this reversal?
- [19:46]
Carter Braxton Worth
Well, it's been reversing for a while. Right. So how do you characterize it? Meaning this has been the big one that's been the big laggard. You get government sponsorship or whatever. You wanted to characterize that circumstance and it's working off its lows. But in principle, a laggard in a very strong space is not good. Technique. Technique, right. It has some catch up potential, but it's caught up, has come to life. I don't think you own it here.
- [20:11]
Melissa Lee
Caught up to the point where valuation it has.
- [20:13]
Carter Braxton Worth
Well, I don't know about that, but meaning semis are off in a way and this is not participate. Okay. It's come to life for the last five to six months, but it's a little bit too little too late is the expression.
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Melissa Lee
Right. But I guess my point is that, you know, even if it's too little too late, the valuations have swung much higher to the point where a lot of analysts are saying it is overvalued here by historical standards.
- [20:34]
Courtney Garcia
Yeah. And I think that the idea that they short up their balance sheet with some of these sponsorships has been really good for them. And I think we've all been talking about this PC refresh for a long time that hasn't come to fruition. You're starting to actually see now that that's coming. And I think it's more like the Windows 11 refresh and the PC refresh which is happening. But I think the question is, is that good for them and is it good enough to offset the fact that they still have Foundry losses, They're still losing market share to AMD and I think a lot of those headwinds are still ahead of them. And yes, I think the run up here is probably already priced in a lot of those other optimism. So I do think seeing a pullback here is probably indicative of people taking the profits off after the run up has already happened.
- [21:09]
Melissa Lee
Foundry is still a huge problem.
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Tim Seymour
It's a huge problem and it's still unknown what the strategy is. And so I think what we're all saying is that the short term to medium term, not even the medium term, the next couple of quarters look kind of okay. And actually there's more cash and there's certainly strategic support, but we really don't know what the medium to long term vision here is. And rethinking Foundry requires a tight of capital and a ton of strategic help from Taiwan Semi who you know, may or may not be there. I've had a chance, we've all had a chance to add at different points here in the last couple of weeks to Intel. Even before this latest round of numbers, I haven't been doing it.
- [21:40]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, Deckers hits the deck. The numbers out of the Shoemaker's earnings that had investors giving the stock the ugg boot. Boston Chartmaster says this one time market favor could be about to zoom higher. He is talking technicals right after this.
- [21:59]
Tim Seymour
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Melissa Lee
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- [24:09]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Pass when you get a buzz kill on Deckers Outdoors, the maker of Hoka sneakers and ugg boots, sinking 15% today after cutting its full year sales forecast due to tariff concerns. The company now expects revenues of 5.35 billion this year versus estimates of 5.45 billion. The stock is down nearly 60% year to date, hit 2 year lows during the session. They said specifically that the price increases due to tariffs that they are impacting customer purchases at this point.
- [24:37]
Karen Feinerman
Yeah, although one thing I found interesting was the the Uggs versus The on right versus the hoka. I'm sorry, versus the HOKA and expectations were the other way around. We softer Hoka be better. I actually think this might, the read through might be a positive for Nike. And you know, Nike we know has really tried to aside from fixing the DTC which was way too aggressive, getting back into wholesale but also taking on on and Hoka and others. So I actually thought this was positive for Nike. We saw that ON was down as well. I don't know if that's similar or they also have that same supply chain issue. I think I like Nike out of this. My read on the whole thing, I.
- [25:21]
Tim Seymour
Think it's, it's a combination of there's bad macro and I think there's bad bottom up for these guys. And I just think the chart, I mean I'll let, I'll let the master talk about it in a second but I, I think you've got a dynamic here where this has been, this is exactly what I would have expected from these numbers. I'm not trying to sound like Monday morning quarterback, but I've been looking at deckers. I've been looking at, at, you know, a handful of these, let's call them discretionary retail apparel names. Burke, you know, you name it.
- [25:47]
Carter Braxton Worth
On.
- [25:48]
Karen Feinerman
On.
- [25:48]
Tim Seymour
I think they're all under pressure here and I think we have one too many pairs of those things in our closet.
- [25:53]
Carter Braxton Worth
I don't, I don't have any pairs of those things. But, but just the way you started. You, what do you think of the two things you said is that it was down 60% for the year and making two year. That tells the whole story. Weakness begets weakness often. That's the nature of momentum. Right. There's positive and negative momentum. This has bearish momentum. It's out of the last 4/4 3 it is dropped and gapped 15% or more. Wow, something's wrong.
- [26:17]
Melissa Lee
Was there a bounce right after. I mean is there like a quick trade here? No.
- [26:20]
Carter Braxton Worth
Sort of goes down to that finds that new level and wallows there before it finds the next level.
- [26:24]
Melissa Lee
Oh, it sounds pretty dismal. Court, what do you think?
- [26:28]
Courtney Garcia
Yeah, I agree. I think the first thing that came to my mind was what does this mean for Nike which I mean their biggest concern right now is their competition. HOKA being one of those. And I can kind of see this going either way for them. Right. Because you are seeing that demand toward Hokas. That actually was a bright spot here. But on the flip side, are you seeing more market share in the Hokas and less toward Nike? And I don't think we're going to know that yet. But I think how this actually plays out to them is the question is this consumer trends or is this tariffs? But that could affect them either way.
- [26:54]
Melissa Lee
There'S a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.
- [26:58]
Tim Seymour
A fresh record for Alphabet ahead of earnings next week. And a slew of other MAG7 names are rallying too. How the options market is gearing up for the results next. But first, the chartmaster says it's time to buy Zoom with both hands.
- [27:13]
Peter Bocvar
Stick around.
- [27:14]
Tim Seymour
He'll tell the technical tale of a potential breakout. You're watching Fast MONEY live from the.
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Peter Bocvar
NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.
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Melissa Lee
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- [28:19]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. Zoom was a gem of a stock during the pandemic, hitting a peak market cap north of $160 billion. It's lost 65% of that value since then. But shares of the video conference investing company have rallied off their April lows and the chartmaster says they are in a bearish to bullish reversal.
- [28:36]
Carter Braxton Worth
Carter, let's have a look. Yes. So just before we get to the charts, just what you said, imagine that. I mean this was a darling. This thing was a 10 bagger, right? In one year it went from autumn of 19 to the autumn of 20, from 60 to 600. Here's the chart with no lines, no drawings, no annotations. Let's put a few in. Basically, after this great run up, it dropped 90% and it's been doing this, which is nothing, for the past three or four years. The question is, is this the beginning of something? That's one way to draw the lines. We'll go through chart after chart here. The next one you'll see, you can call that a wedge, you can call it a trail. It doesn't matter what you call it, it's what a reversal looks like. The next iteration, we moved above a downtrend line in effect since long ago and then finally, one more way to annotate or depict the circumstance at hand. Whether you want to call it a cup and handle or rounding bottom, it doesn't matter. Meaning great strength, 10 baggers, 60 to 690% collapse. And it's been walking along the bottom of the pond, so to speak. Now a lot of stocks are value traps and it's just dead money or is it coming to life? Now you make a decision. My judgment is it's coming to life.
- [29:42]
Melissa Lee
All right. So I feel like something Karen, is long.
- [29:46]
Karen Feinerman
You're talking about long cash. Yes. I mean, well, I'm so I'm happy to be in, in alignment with where Carter is. I bought this, I don't know, last quarter in the 60s or so. They had a really good earnings report. A lot of things going well. Enterprise clients up 100,000 more customers, you know, giant companies up. And then they have this giant cash hoard and they do have a big buyback in place, 2.7 billion. But it's a third of their value is cash. And I was just looking. They did an offering, they did their IPO in 2019. The idea that 2020 would happen. The greatest environment imaginable for them and then they took advantage of it and sold almost 6 million shares at $340.
- [30:32]
Melissa Lee
Wow.
- [30:32]
Karen Feinerman
Very, very nice work by them. And I think there is momentum in the business. The only negative one can find is churn. But that last quarter was actually a little bit better. So I like it. I'm long valuation looks like it's 14 times earnings. Back up the cash. It's actually closer to under 10, under 11.
- [30:50]
Tim Seymour
I actually pay for the service. I mean it's, it's pretty good, you know. So it fascinating idea out of Carter here and certainly when you consider there have been some Covid darlings that probably won't come back, you know, it's not just because it's come up and gone down in base it will go higher but, but this is a fundamental source is not expensive. It's got an 8% free cash flow yield. Interesting.
- [31:12]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, apples, Apple, Alphabet. Three day winning streak spells a new record for the new tech for the tech titan. What is next for the stock as it gears up for earnings next week? More on that right after this.
- [31:28]
Tim Seymour
Missed a moment of fast. Catch us anytime on the go follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.
- [31:42]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to fast Money. Stocks rallying to records to close out the week after mild inflation. Print the first official data released since the shutdown. The Dow up 1%, closing above 47,000 for the first time. The S and P and the Nasdaq both locking in record closes of their own. IBM and AMD also hitting records after IBM said it can run a key quantum computing error correcting algorithm on AMD's chips. Ford hitting the gas after last night's earnings. It's the automaker's best day since the pandemic, up 12%. And finally gold, snapping a nine week winning streak down today as well as for the week. Meantime, Alphabet also hitting a record today after officially announcing its cloud partnership with AI startup Anthropic, worth tens of billions of dollars. Google's parent company closing out the week on a three day winning streak and heads into Wednesday's earnings report up nearly 40% on the year. Wow. So Google, just one of the five Mag7 names reporting next week joining Microsoft, Amazon as well as Apple. So Karen, in terms of Alphabet, how are you feeling about this report? That's one of your major holdings here?
- [32:45]
Karen Feinerman
It is, it's, it's my second biggest holding. I'm a little bit concerned because of the run up. We just talked about the setup going into earnings. I mean it was just three days ago that Atlas, which is chat g search was being announced and stock was down, I don't know, six or seven dollars. It's back past that now. Eclipse that I think. You know it's funny this, they had this presentation of the Anthropic deal where tens of billions, it used to be things were more defined than tens of billions wide range. And then this general, the open air and video. We talked about how vague that seemed to be. So I feel that their search isn't under threat yet. I don't think we'll see that yet. But I do think it will weigh on people's sentiment. I think their earnings like matters on that part of the business. Advertising part of this I think will be fine. We'll see. I mean there seems to be momentum in Google Cloud now.
- [33:44]
Melissa Lee
Yeah.
- [33:44]
Karen Feinerman
And so I think that will be okay. I'm just a little nervous of the setup going in.
- [33:49]
Melissa Lee
Yeah. The deal with Anthropic, the tens of billions of dollars refers to both cloud services but also TPU.
- [33:55]
Karen Feinerman
TPU's, they're cherry and.
- [33:56]
Melissa Lee
Right, exactly.
- [33:57]
Karen Feinerman
And so what is another deal for other chips that we've seen other chips. Right.
- [34:01]
Melissa Lee
And what does this mean? Because Anthropic is partnered with Amazon, which of course Carter had mentioned is vulnerable going to this earnings because of where it's at in terms of price and Its chips, the training of chips and cloud. And cloud as well as cloud. Right. So there's a lot of questions that open up on the back of this deal as well.
- [34:17]
Courtney Garcia
There absolutely are not. You know I don't really expect that we're going to get any like news that would change the fundamental story of this. I think that is going in. I think momentum's on their side, I think seasonality is on their side. I think the amount of cash on the sidelines going into these kind of trades is on their side. But I think seeing what's happening in their search business is going to be very important with the trade. And I agree with Karen, I don't think this is going to be the time we're going to see that really have a detriment to them. But it's a longer term term story to watch. But the cloud growth has a lot of momentum and I think we'll probably continue to see that. So I think it has a good setup here.
- [34:47]
Carter Braxton Worth
I mean Google has been such the laggard compared to MAG7. In fact it was making 10 year relative lows to that index just three or four months ago and it's now come to life. I suspect it will further come to life relative to its peers.
- [35:04]
Melissa Lee
Further come to life.
- [35:05]
Tim Seymour
I agree. I'm long Google. I add to it where I can. I add on weakness. I think the it has been tarnished as a is as someone whose core business is dead and it will not be a part of the new AI revolution. It's absurd. In fact most people are actually getting a pretty decent AI search out of their Google Chrome right now.
- [35:26]
Melissa Lee
Let's get to what the options market is pricing in for Alphabet as well as the other tech titans. Next week. Mike Co is here to break that all down. Mike, what are you seeing? Yeah, so Microsoft, that one's implying a move of about four and a half percent after they report earnings. Alphabet about 6%, 0.1%. Meta is about 6.5%. Apple 3.4% and Amazon pretty much spot on 6%. I was just taking a look at Apple because the options are cheap. Top line growth now over 6%. That thing hasn't really been growing on the top line before now and the bottom line growth probably about 9% and some good free cash flow growth as well. So combined with the low options premiums, I was looking at the December 240, 265290 call spread risk reversal that would cost about five bucks or about 2% of the current stock price to press Your bullish bets there. Yep. Thank you, Mike. Karen, in terms of the earnings you're watching in particular, obviously you watch all of them, but Meta is one.
- [36:16]
Karen Feinerman
Meta is my biggest position, so I'm definitely watching that one closely. And I really do think it's not just Meta's capex discussion that will be important for the whole space.
- [36:26]
Melissa Lee
Yep. Tim, which ones are you watching in particular?
- [36:29]
Tim Seymour
So two that are names I've owned for a While. Boeing and PayPal. PayPal. It's funny, you look at a five year chart, looks a little bit like Zoom's chart. I mean it's actually really cheap. In fact, it's cheaper than Zoom and it's got a 10% free cash flow yield. Alex. Don't call me Peter. Chris is new at the Peter Chris. You know, Peter Chris is now the drummer for Kiss. Okay. Anyway, so you know, the bottom line is they've had new management come in, they've got products, they've got a story here and the macros better. It's not going to be a runaway story. Boeing, we've gotten the news from the FAA and deliveries and the fact that free cash flow is underappreciated here. Boeing's going higher.
- [37:05]
Courtney Garcia
Courtney, I think is going to be the obvious story next week, but I think you also want to look at some of the less obvious stories of Visa would be one of those where we talked about this earlier. But I think continuing to see what the strength of the consumer, the economy is, is going to be really important. So seeing what those transaction volumes look like and what the consumer looks like I think is to be really interesting. They've actually had a good year. They have momentum going into it, which is great. So I think looking at the stock but also what it means for the broader economy is very interesting.
- [37:31]
Melissa Lee
Cross border will also be an interesting thing to look at out of all these. Carter, which. Which chart piques your fancy?
- [37:38]
Carter Braxton Worth
Well, I'd say Apple. The thing about Apple is it's. It peaked the day after Christmas, December 26@260 and here it is to 62. It's moved up $2 in 10 months. That's a set up for a prospective breakout. I suspect it has a good week next week.
- [37:56]
Melissa Lee
Oh, interesting. And you're also watching ups?
- [37:58]
Carter Braxton Worth
Well, only because that is such a, such a laggard.
- [38:01]
Melissa Lee
Right.
- [38:02]
Carter Braxton Worth
You're talking about stock that's at five, six year lows and it's such an important stock as it relates to many things from Main street and so how it performs, having dropped and gapped over and over and over into earnings will be a tell.
- [38:14]
Melissa Lee
I do have to ask you about Tim's PayPal. Since Tim made the comparison of PayPal to Zoom being Zoom, like in terms of chart, would you agree with that?
- [38:22]
Carter Braxton Worth
Well, that's right. I mean, it has the same circumstance of a great run up, a great collapse and then a great base. Now the question is, is it emerging from the base? It looks like it was last year. Yes.
- [38:33]
Tim Seymour
Right.
- [38:33]
Carter Braxton Worth
And. Or is Zoom emerging? And maybe that judgment is wrong, but that circumstance is very asymmetrical. If you're wrong, you get stuck spinning your tires. But if you're right, you get a nice lift.
- [38:44]
Tim Seymour
Spinning your tires is something we did in high school. If you put a little Clorox on them, you got a little smoke.
- [38:49]
Melissa Lee
Why would you do that?
- [38:51]
Tim Seymour
Because it's kind of fun. Yeah, we spun our tires.
- [38:54]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, nuclear going radioactive. One power player nearing a deal for a big project in South Carolina. The impact it's having on nuclear stocks next. And we're about to sell out of our tickets for our next Fast Money live event. Do not miss our chance to join us live on December 11th. Trading the holidays events. Can the QR code on the screen or go to CNBC events.com/fast money right now. Welcome back to Fast Money. The uranium trade going nuclear. Today on News, Brookfield Asset Management is in talks to buy two reactors from South Carolina. Santee Cooper, shares of Centrist, Oklo, Uranium Energy and others all seeing outsized gains. You've been long on this trade for a very long time. Tim, what do you make of this action?
- [39:42]
Tim Seymour
I think it's interesting. It goes to show that there are assets changing hands. It's certainly putting more valuations in the space. We know the government is committed to build out. We also know there are very limited assets. So the ways to play it, and there are a handful, those names are up there. I continue to say that Cameco is very, very expensive and has been volatile and is going higher. And there's the ura, if you want to just own the etf, that actually plays the space. But there's no question that this week when we saw gold pull back, we saw uranium pull back. But they're two different drivers, even though it is a similar group of investors. So I continue to like uranium and I expect we're all going to need a lot more uranium going forward.
- [40:22]
Melissa Lee
Yeah. These two reactors that are at the center of the deal, they were partially built and abandoned in 2017. So the notion that Brookfield wants to be go back in and continue the construction of this. I mean, that really speaks volumes as to the demand for this and how.
- [40:36]
Tim Seymour
Easy it will be to get the follow through from the regulators and.
- [40:39]
Melissa Lee
Right. And then the need for uranium, of course. How do the charts look?
- [40:43]
Carter Braxton Worth
Well, they are what they are. These are very speculative moments in time in very speculative stocks. And look, that Oklahoma thing just dropped 40% in a matter of 48 hours. That's the nature of it. So if that's your bag and there's nothing wrong with doing it, you play.
- [40:57]
Melissa Lee
What makes this speculative. I mean, you can lay out the case that this is not speculative, that maybe at one point it was speculative, but it's now not speculative in terms of, you know, the Trump administration is behind nuclear power. There is a real need for power at this point to power AI. When does it turn from speculative to not speculative?
- [41:16]
Karen Feinerman
When you're actually able to build and have a running. Have multiple more. Yes.
- [41:21]
Melissa Lee
Okay. You see that.
- [41:23]
Karen Feinerman
I don't know how many years we are from where they are right now until that actually happens.
- [41:27]
Melissa Lee
Yeah.
- [41:27]
Tim Seymour
But we are seeing from the power utilities those that have nuclear exposure are trading at a premium and are delivering nuclear power and it is referred to as either, you know, alternative or so I mean we are seeing the players in the industry. I also think that uranium prices have actually been held back and if you get a spike in uranium prices, look out. I think there has been a squeeze for power players that have actually needed enriched uranium. And that's part of what I think is going on in the stuff we don't see every day.
- [41:58]
Courtney Garcia
Yeah, I agree. This is a long term story. Like I don't even know if it is speculative at this point or not because I think long term there is such a need for the power. I mean, at this point, the AI story, the demand isn't the question. It's like, can these suppliers actually meet the demand to create all of the AI that's out there and energy is a big piece to that and uranium is the thing that may actually solve that. So yes, you'll see some ups and downs here. I think this is absolutely a long term story you want to be involved in.
- [42:22]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, popularity of women's basketball is surging, but salary is still playing catch up. The current state of negotiations as the WNBA lockout looms and what players are asking for is viewership. Ticket prices and meteorites come into focus. More fast money into. Welcome back to Fast Money. We are a week away from the expiration of the WNBA's Collective Bargaining Agreement intentions are running high. Julia Borson is here to explain what it means for the league and its big corporate partners. Julia?
- [42:56]
Julia Boorstin
Well, Melissa, as WNBA players push for a total overhaul of their deal, there is a growing concern about a lockout. When the WNBA's collective bargaining agreement with players expires next Friday, a week from today. And while the season doesn't start until spring, a lockout would cause players to lose access to facilities and would halt operations like trades. And it could ultimately end up delaying gains. Now, this recent season, the WNBA had record attendance, 33% higher than its prior peak. It also had record ratings, more than 60 million unique viewers across its broadcast partners. With that growth, ESPN, Amazon and NBC Universal inked a 2.2 billion rights deal last year. And those numbers have also drawn big sponsors, including Delta, Nike and CarMax. CarMax tells us it is following the developments closely and that it remains focused on the league's growth and celebrating the athletes who inspire fans. Now, negotiations have gotten heated as Navisa Collier, Nafisa Collier, a VP of the WNBA Players association, criticized Commissioner Kathy Engelbert. And Today, more than 70 elected officials sent a letter to Engelbert and NBA Commissioner Adam Silver urging the league to bargain in good faith. Now, sources tell us there's been little progress ahead of the deadline, but that a likely outcome is that both sides to agree to a short term extension in order to be able to continue negotiations.
- [44:25]
Melissa Lee
Melissa it seems very unusual for this VP to speak out against the commissioner. I mean, that just I guess goes to show you what, how high the tensions are within, within the league.
- [44:37]
Carter Braxton Worth
Yeah.
- [44:37]
Julia Boorstin
And I should say Nafisa Collier is not just representing the player. She is also a star player herself. She also happens to be one of the founders of Unrivaled, which is a three on three off season league that she started with one of her, her fellow players. And I think what that really did is it emboldened them and it showed them that their power to generate revenue on their own. And I think what they're really looking for here is to get compensated more like owners in the WNBA the way they feel like they're getting compensated like owners in unrivaled this other league, but really a lot of tension and a lot of people who want them to work this out.
- [45:18]
Melissa Lee
Yeah. Julia, thank you. Julia Boorstin. Karen, I'm sure you definitely want this to be worked out quickly.
- [45:24]
Karen Feinerman
I absolutely do. Right. I care very much about the W. I care about New York Liberty, which I mean, you know, I'm a fan of New York Liberty. I think that Julie points out a few things that are important. Tensions are very high. There is no question there's animosity between the players and the commissioner and hopefully cooler heads will prevail. Wouldn't be shocked if it did go past the deadline. I don't know that it will, but she also points out there's a lot of time before the season starts, right? So this is good, which is very good, very good. And it is, it is. So I think it is so bad for both sides to have this not be worked out right. It's bad for the players, it's bad for the owners, and there's so much momentum in the league right now. You really want to keep that going. So I remain optimistic.
- [46:12]
Melissa Lee
Up next, Final Trade Final trade time.
- [46:21]
Tim Seymour
Timothy Going to be an interesting week and looking forward to buying. I think there's a surprise on Cash.
- [46:26]
Karen Feinerman
Flow Ba Karen yes, so as Peter Bookbar said and I like to see him bullish. We don't often. He really likes oil. I like the OIH with Peter Courtney.
- [46:35]
Courtney Garcia
Looking ahead to next week, I think Visa is an interesting setup. I would take a look at this here.
- [46:39]
Melissa Lee
Carter Braxton Worth Zoom.
- [46:42]
Carter Braxton Worth
May it zoom.
- [46:44]
Melissa Lee
Thank you for watching Fast Money. Have a terrific weekend. Mad Money with Jim Cramer starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer CNBC Sport on.
- [47:43]
Tim Seymour
The Record, your front row seat to sports and business. From commissioners and owners to media executives.
- [47:49]
Carter Braxton Worth
And top athletes, these are Rembrandts.
- [47:51]
Tim Seymour
I'm telling you, these franchises on the Record all new Saturdays, three Eastern.