← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
Stocks Surge As Powell Indicates Potential Rate Cut… And Nvidia Results On Deck 8/22/25
00:43:48
Stocks rip higher as Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled the central bank could begin cutting rates at its next policy meeting. What the shift could mean for the markets next move, and the sectors our traders are watching. Plus Earnings season isn’t over yet. All eyes on Nvidia ahead of next week’s results. How options traders are setting up ahead of those numbers. Fast Money Disclaimer
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Upgrade today by visiting Dell.com AI PC live from the NASDAQ market site right here in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Off to the races. Stocks soaring after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledges a rate cut could could be coming. Or maybe not. But is today's euphoria warranted, or did the markets get a little bit too optimistic? We are counting down to earnings for the biggest stock in the market. That is Nvidia. Those numbers out on day. Will their results be enough to keep this rally going? We'll get the options action on that. Plus crypto soaring and taking all the names in its orbit higher. And the chartmaster Carter Moore says Lyft shares about to lift off. Solar stocks shining bright, the name of one of our traders says is the best in class. And hey, maybe he's talking about me. Hi, everybody. I'm Brian Sullivan for Melissa Lee, coming to you live from Studio B at the nasdaq. I'm on your desk. Tonight. We've got Tim Seymour, Carter Wirth, Bono and Ison, and Steve Grasso. And let us start with this monster market rally to close out the week. The Dow surging 850 points, setting its first record close of the year and coming within a fraction of 46,000. The major indexes all following suit. The S and P finishing just shy of a record close. Small cap Russell 2000 leading the way. It had its best close of the year. Let's take a look at some of the individual sectors making moves. Anything tied to rates and housing, whether it's builders to flooring manufacturers to furniture stores. More news on them in A second, by the way, seeing some gains. And by the way, on furniture, you got some new tariff threats that seem to be hitting some of these names after hours. Again. More on that in a minute. If you want to buy a house or build a house, you might have to borrow money, go to the bank. Banks also getting a boost today. Regional and big bank ETFs seeing their best day since April 9th. And a trio of solar stocks, semi stocks, software stocks, all seeing solid gains as well. The action coming after Jerome Powell suggested in Jackson Hole this morning that economic conditions could soon warrant a rate cut. Our policy rate is now 100 basis points closer to neutral than it was a year ago. And the stability of the unemployment rate and other labor market measures allows us to proceed carefully as we consider changes to our policy stance. Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance. Now, those simple words sending markets soaring. Bonds to two year yield sharply lower and a chance of a rate cut in a few weeks sharply higher. So did the Federal Reserve chair give the green light for markets keep rallying through the end of summer. Let us talk about it. Let it trade it. Tim Seymour, I get it, the hopes and dreams of a rate cut sparking buyers to come in. But I just is there any part of you that thinks the market inflation maybe got a little ahead of itself? Well, I think inflation is still an issue for the Fed. I am not surprised. We got a dovish comment today and I do expect we will get a hawkish cut in September. I do think markets have shown that they want to see this posture in the Fed and we've seen over the last month that retail, that homebuilders, that anything interest rate sensitive, certainly banks have rallied on that expectation. So this was affirmation, a drop of 15 in the Vix. Again, something that's not necessarily dollar for dollar where you have to assume the market is going to go on the long run. But in the short run I think that was an overreaction. I think to remove all of the other broader dynamics for markets is not the right thing to do. But again, weaker dollar that's very supportive to international, it's very supportive to commodities, it's supportive to multinationals. I mean there are trades here within the trade that work today and it wasn't mega cap tech. It they worked but they didn't work like the rest of the trades. And I think that's something the market should take a cue from. Want to bring out the A word? Steve Grass So don't worry. The word today is adjust. Because. Don't ever. Sorry. Because Jerome Powell said they were going to adjust rates. He didn't say they're going to cut rates. Now, he can't say that. I understand that, but he talked a lot about inflation. He talked a lot about tariffs. I could read, I read the speech and I said easily I could make a case for a rate hike, not a shot. No, no, he doesn't want to. Not. But I'm saying he kind of was really a, kind of an odd speech where he hedged both sides. Yeah, he's. He has been hedging both sides. He's been leaning on. Well, then you're never wrong. Yeah, but he's been leaning on the most important mandate to him at this time was inflation stable pricing. Not, not full employment. So he's already done that. But I think today he really had to give warning to the market. That September they're going, you have the jobs number. That was terrible. Then you have the PPI that shows inflation. I think for him, he had to really show that he was willing and able to cut rates, and that's what he's going to do. Now, is it 25 or is it 50? That's the question that we're going to have to make. But where's the neutral rate? Is it 3%, 3.5%? So that's going to dictate. What does that mean? How aggressive? Where it's no longer inflationary, inflationary or deflationary. Where the Fed sets. So that's your neutral rate. So we're at 4.3%, basically smack in the middle of the Fed funds rate. So are they going to cut down to three and a half, 375. How much are they really going to cut? And how aggressive do they want to be? I think, I think the first cut. We'll get some of that. Yeah, I mean, I think they're trying to determine what, what the neutral rate is. And like he's admitted, listen, we're mildly or modestly restrictive. I think he used, I mean, perhaps don't quote me on that. I think he acknowledged both sides of the risk. I think you're very spot on in terms of saying that he's been leaning more towards full employment. There's an argument on both sides. I do realize that that most recent jobs number is certainly concerning. And I think essentially today was him acknowledging that. I think it would have been tough essentially for him to walk out there and kind of give us the same speech not acknowledging Particularly if you're saying that you're data dependent. You've now had some glaring data that perhaps are showing you that there needs to be somewhat of a pivot where I think the market's got it wrong. Tim mentioned it in terms of the vix, I think essentially it's not just this one, this one cut. I think the market is essentially saying that we're now in an easing cycle and I'm not sure if that's right. I think that's a bit premature there because as you mentioned ppe, we're still seeing some goods inflation now services has kind of. Services have kind of weighed against that to kind of balance things out. But there is still this kind of bubbling under the surface and we will get to a point where there's forced to factor in both sides, admittedly and probably right. I mean, I don't have a crystal ball, but it does seem that it was appropriate for him to give some credence to at least the labor market showing signs of deteriorating. That is somewhat preemptive. And until we see that that is actually rolled over and if they're doing their job and they're preventing that from actually being an issue, I think the likelihood and the necessity, the necessity for future rate cuts should be called further into. Clearly they're more concerned about jobs than inflation. Carter Worth though list coming into today, as we talked about on this show last night, there was a, I think it was a 74% chance of a rate cut. According to the CME's Fed Watch tool, it's now 87%. So it wasn't that big of a Delta between the two. I mean it wasn't like we were at 20% of a rate chance yesterday and now we're at 87. You know, 73 to 87 is not that big of a percentage change, is it? Why was that enough to move the market almost a thousand points? Nonsense on the Dow today. That's the fickle nature of the thing. Think about this, Brian. In May, just as recently in May, there was zero odds in fact that higher for longer nonsense was getting to be sort of popular again. In fact, if you used AI to search for that phrase, use of it just you can do for any word, any phrase, it started creeping into the vernacular, into written work, into spoken, spoken interviews. And yet never once has the 10 year yield been above 5% except for a brief 15 minutes in October of 2023. Not in the past three years. Five years, 10 years. Last time we were above 5% was in oh, seven and yet it's this lurking thing somehow we're going to five and a half, six. I think today in many ways is important because it puts to bed the nonsense that rates were going higher. Does it? Well, I mean, the market would say so. Yeah, the market did say so. So you know who is there and actually talks to the Fed chairman and knows exactly what's going on is a guy named Steve Lisbon who's been working since about 4:00 clock this morning. So we're glad, Steve, that you hung around because it's been an ultra long day. Markets loved what the Fed chair had to say. Was it correct in what we said in that the focus appears to be a lot more on jobs than it does on inflation or no? Well, it's a touch more nuanced than that, Brian. Essentially that's correct. But the nuance I would tell you is there was a line in the speech where he said he not concerned at this point that you would get wage inflation because of tariffs and that's because of the soft job market. That for him was a real it's very much adopting some of the ideas of Fed Governor Chris Waller, who has been in favor of a rate cut. And if he can get rid of that risk, he can kind of clear the way for. I agree what was said earlier, a hawkish cut. But Brian, a couple of questions I think surround this cut around this speech here. The first is did the market hear it a little bit more dovish than he intended it to be. There were some folks who thought maybe they went a little bit further than they ought to have. There is still some doubt about whether that happens. And that comes from the last bullet point here. Will the data cooperate? It's the August data that will give you the September cut. You got to watch out for that. And then there are several remaining hawkish members of the committee with the legitimate questions whether or not now that the chairman has spoken, do they fall in line or they maintain their hawkishness. I'll tell you that right after the meeting, right after the speech, we interviewed Beth Hammock. The Cleveland Fed president kind of stuck to a gun saying September is not the time. So remember, there are seven Fed officials who in the June forecast did not forecast a rate cut this year. Now maybe that jobs report changed it. I would just say the market is not mispriced in terms of the futures market for this. But there is remains some doubt something still have to fall in place before that September rate cut. And don't get carried away that it's an easing cycle. I wonder though, Steve. I think it is. And correct me if I'm wrong, please. Very well might be on Thursday. Is the PC, is that true? I think we have a PC, which is the Fed's most preferred measure of inflation to a guy named Steve Liesman. That number is coming out, I think next week. What if that number is red hot? I mean all the, I just, I'm not trying to throw holes or water on this market. It's great, people are making money. But all I'm trying to say is if the number is red hot, does a lot of this excitement get tamped down a little bit? Look, Brian, I think it's our job. It's not the trader's job, is your, it's our job to sort of when a market goes up by 900 points in a day, to ask the question, was it the right move? I think that's perfectly in line with what we're doing here. Doesn't say it's right or wrong. It just says here's some holes. One thing about pce, Brian, is we're pretty good at forecasting it. The street is anyway. Powell actually in his speech gave us a number that he thinks it'll be 2.9%, which is up a tenth. And you do raise an interesting question, which is that you will have a Fed chair cutting with inflation above its 2% target and forecast to remain there for a little bit. So to quote a song, the Fed is going on a feeling here. And that feeling essentially, Brian, is that these tariffs will be one time price increases. They can give it a quarter because they're still restrictive. But if that inflation doesn't start heading towards the 2% target, I would not count on additional rate cuts beyond say another quarter or so. Well, I would add a Boston in that because at least today there was more than a feeling. Steve Liesman, thank you very much. All right, we've got some breaking news Friday night. Breaking news, it's on Intel. Intel stock is higher by about 6% on news the US is going to or maybe already has taken a 10% stake in the company. Eamon Javors covering the story. Eamon joining us from the White House. Eamonn, what do we know? Well, we know that the US government already has taken that stake according to officials and the company itself now putting out a press release. Let's start with the President of the United States though, who just put out a social media post just a couple of minutes ago. He says it is my great honor to report that the United States of America now fully owns and controls 10% of Intel, a great American company that has an even more incredible future. I negotiated this deal with Lip Bhutan, the highly respected Chief Executive officer of the company. The President goes on to describe some details here of the deal. He says the United States paid nothing for these shares and the shares are now valued at approximately $11 billion. This is a great deal for America and also a great deal for Intel. So on that point of the President saying that the US Government paid nothing for the shares, we now have release from the company itself. You see the rest of the tweet there from the President building leading edge semiconductors and chips, which is what intel does, is fundamental to the future of the nation. Make America great again. Thank you for your attention to this matter. So the press release, Brian, from Intel gives us some bullet points here in terms of how this deal has been structured. And it does look like the President is correct in the sense that there is no new money going into this deal. This is previously committed CHIPS act money and previously committed funds from a program called Secure Enclave which was a Biden Harris administration program that committed three plus billion dollars to intel in those years. So what intel is saying here, if you can call up these bullet points, is that the government has agreed to purchase 433.3 million intel shares and the price they're paying is $20.47 a share. You can look at the current market and see how that shakes out. The equity stake is funded by the remaining 5.7 billion in grants that were previously awarded under the Chips Act. So that's previously granted money and then also $3.2 billion awarded to intel as part of the Secure Enclave program, again previously awarded money from the US government. So when the President says the US government paid nothing, what he's saying is that money was already committed to the company. The company saying here that ultimately this deal is now worth 9.9% of the company. And Brian, our eagle eyed folks on the CNBC news desk at CNBC Global Headquarters are calculating that the US Government is now the largest shareholder in Intel. It's fascinating. And again, I'm not countering anybody who's making what we call decos of the graphics, but I think that that graphic below you, you can't see it, but I can says US takes 10% stake in intel is not exactly accurate because it probably should say US buys 10% stake in intel, should it not? I mean, you know that's a good question, right? Because the President is saying no new. No money here. The President is saying the we the US Tax or nothing. But there's a cost per share at which the shares are being granted to the US Government on the basis of money that was already committed to Intel. Right. The money was initially committed to intel with no strings attached. And what the president has just done is retroactively attach strings to money that was already going to the company. So is that taking the stake? I mean, or is it buying the stake? It wasn't buying the stake at the time the money was committed. It's certainly taking the stake now and renegotiating the deal after the fact. That. And that's just the reality of the situation. Yeah. It's hard to know, but it sounds like from your reporting there is some consideration being paid on the stock. We think. Or maybe they're issuing new shares at that value, which would be very dilutive because I think we're not. It's not clear. Is that correct? I, you know, I have to go through the fine print here a little bit in more detail. I don't know if these are new shares or shares that intel itself held previously, but what intel says in this press release that just went out is that the US Taxpayer is getting a discount on the shares. And there you see where the shares are trading now. So the taxpayer is not paying full freight for those shares or not getting them credited to the US Government at full price. Fair enough. We thought it was going to be kind of a slow summer Friday. It was anything but Eamon Jabbers. We got to wait a little bit for your tweet weekend. It's not here yet. You don't have to wait too long, Brian. When this camera goes off, I'm going to hit it. It's fair enough. Takes buys, gets a stake. All right. For more on reaction to today's monster rally and more, let's bring in another voice, Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer. At one point, BFG Wealth Partners. Did they take or buy it? Okay, we'll move on from that. Did the market overreact to the Fed news today? The market's been trained, the stock market's been trained to rally whenever the Fed tells you they're going to cut interest rates. It's just that reaction coming in, didn't we? Oh, I agree. Where we're sort of rallying again on the possibility of rate cuts. We've been pricing into rate cuts for months now, so. But Jay Powell, Goldman Sachs is at like, I think three rate cuts. I don't understand why the market reacted this way when everybody, and maybe everybody's mother was saying that we're going to get rate cuts. Some of it was positioning. I think we were down five or six days leading into today. The September rate cut odds going into the speech got down to about 66%. It was above 90 just a few weeks ago. So part of this is just there was the positioning going in and Powell's stamp on, yes, we are cutting in September. So. So Peter, when you look at this, the market is always, what have you done for me lately? So if you go back historically, in a non recessionary time period, The Fed cuts 188 basis points. Recessionary. 400 basis points. Is 188 basis points on the, on the docket for the Fed or is this a one off? I think we're in a rate tweaking cycle, not a rate cutting cycle. And you had mentioned the 3% neutral rate. Well, the 3% neutral rate in nominal terms is only a neutral rate when the rate of inflation is sustainably at 2%. 3% is not just the number. It's only when inflation's at 2. Well, inflation's at 3 instead. In other words, the neutral rate according to the Fed dot plot is 1%. So if inflation is 2.9 and the core PCE confirms that on Thursday, well, 3.9% technically is where the Fed funds rate should be. Well, one or two cuts gets you there and not much more. I'm not. I'm not. Again, I'm trying like it's Friday. The weather's beautiful here. It's been raining all week. I want to be happy. Okay? People are making money today. Do you doesn't feel that the longer the show goes on, the less I do. But I will say this yesterday. I mean, I'm old enough to remember 24 hours ago we got the Fed minutes and they were fairly hawkish. Now we get this speech, which is fairly dove, I guess. Dove. Ish. Ish. But what happened between the Fed minutes were from a meeting just a couple weeks ago. We kind of feel like we're all over the place. I'm sorry. Yeah, that was the perplexing thing. And Powell spoke three and a half weeks ago and didn't tip his hand to any of this. And then the minutes, as you say, reading through it, several, many, most talked hawkishly within that meeting. And so there was no sort of hint. And that's why the rate cut odds were only 66% going into today. So they kind of fooled us. And maybe Powell just woke up on a different side of the bed this morning and changed his speech to being more dovish than hawkish. Maybe he just didn't want to fight anymore. I don't know. Tim Seymour, you got a final. You got a hot take on the Federal Reserve today because they listen, they move the markets in a hot way. It felt like this was not based upon hard data. This didn't feel data dependent. I think if we had the same Fed without some of the pressure that we've seen on them, I think the pie was hot. I think the first statement or early in his statement today, and I don't know if Peter's still here, but the fact that he said he is shifting the risk, he sees the risks in monetary policy shifting, that's significant. And that now needs to qualify very much. This dovish statement with a hawkish cut. Peter, I don't know. Yeah, I agree that it should be interpreted as a hawkish cut because I don't think they have many cuts left. If a 1% real rate is. Is that true real rate? That is in the dot plot. So I know a lot of people say the Fed's going to cut to three because that's the neutral rate. But it's only in the neutral rate when inflation's at 2 and inflation's not at 2, let alone now, but on a sustainable basis too. So I don't think they have many cuts left and it's one and done in September, kind of what Steve Liesman said. It's just we're going to get the one. Powell gets Trump off his back sort of. I think he'll throw in maybe one more in December because the economy is legitimately slow. Growth is 1%, the labor market is slowing. So I understand his desire to cut, but that 3% sticky inflation rate is going to limit his ability to cut too much from here. Well said, Peter Bocvar. Thank you. Thank you, Brian. Thanks for coming in. All right. It is not just stocks, crypto and all its cohorts also surging in today's rally. Tokens, stocks. They're all going higher. But how much higher can you. Where can they go? We'll talk it. Plus a deal on the diamond. What we know about ESPN's potential pack. Major League Baseball. What it all means. The streaming wars don't go anywhere. Fast money back at two. And now a next level moment from AT&T business. Say you've sent out a gigantic shipment of pillows and they need to be there in time for International Sleep day. You've got AT and T5G so you're fully confident, but the vendor isn't responding and International Sleep Day is tomorrow. Luckily, AT&T 5G lets you deal with any issues with ease, so the pillows will get delivered and everyone can sleep soundly, especially you. ATT 5G requires a compatible plan and device coverage not available everywhere. Learn more@att.com 5G Network Whether it's a date night, a special event or just another Tuesday, our over 800 stylists are here to help you look and feel your best. We're about personalized style that fits your life made for real life moments. Maurices My name is Josh Brown. Everyone needs to invest. We're going to show you exactly where the best stocks are and what's happening with them in real time. Join Pro for exclusive access to Josh Brown's best stocks in the market@cnbc.com Beststocks all right, welcome back to Fast Money. Some home goods stocks, furniture type companies, they're falling right now after a big day today. But it all comes because a few minutes ago President Trump announced a tariff investigation on furniture coming into the United States. Shares of Williams, Sonoma, Wayfair, RH all down about 6 or 7.5% Carter Worth in the after hours. There's a lot like a lot of things we still don't know. You have a take? Well, I mean it just speaks to again the fickle nature of it all and the knee jerk reaction to headlines. But more importantly than these, these are very small companies. La Z boy, it goes on and on. But the home building stocks act well and that is a much more important data point than this sort of idiosyncratic. These are Williams Sonoma bigger. But a lot of these are not very important companies in terms of their market cap vis a vis the overall market structure. Yeah. Anybody else around the table got to take on because we don't know. I mean the stocks went up today, then you get this tariff announcement, then the stocks go down today. It's probably all good for Ashley Furniture based up there in Arcadia, Wisconsin. But other than that. Well, again, I mean, I can understand why the markets rallied again. I just think they're getting ahead of themselves. So you look at the Russell, for example, which had an enormous day today and you compare that to where it was in April just now getting back to those levels. And I understand these smaller companies are likely going to be funding at the front end of the curve. So any kind of easing of rate pressure helps them. The real question is, is this really where you want to be investing the incremental dollar here. It just seems like if you're going to argue that markets, the market valuations are stretched and you're arguing that we've already had this run and you're going to then argue that these are rate sensitive pockets of the market, is this really where you want to be investing the next dollar? And I think that that's really a tough do for me. All right, let's move on to crypto. Coinbase Strategy Circle, Robinhood, Steve Grasso all doing well. But you would argue that some of the cool kids have moved on to ether and others because there's just not enough volatility in bitcoin. Yeah, I think that's the key is that bitcoin has got not that bitcoin can't continue to rise. It's just if you look at what was up today, what was the number 4% or thereabouts, you look at eth was up, you know, anywhere between 12 and 15%. You're going to get going to get a larger volatile volatility spots with the smaller coins. And if you look at eth, that has some use cases to it. So bitcoin just becomes digital gold. If you are not investing in and you do have the 21 million ultimate supply, that's the base case for bitcoin. But when you look at Ethereum, the rest of the crypto space is built on Ethereum's platform. So there's use cases behind this. So this one can really have that tailwind and that torque to trade multiples higher than where it's at right now. All right, well said. Listen, everything, pretty much everything went up today. All right. There is a lot more fast money still to come. Here's what's coming up. A curveball in the streaming wars as MLB reportedly nears another deal this time with espn. What it could mean for Disney and where you can stream the next game. Plus, the biggest stock on the planet reports earnings next week. What to expect from Nvidia and what the numbers could say about the strength of the AI trade. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this. Big moments or small moments. They all deserve great style. Our over 800 stylists are here to help you look and feel your best. Visit your local Maurices to find fashion fit for you with a little help from US CNBC make it's online course how to build a standout personal brand. Three industry experts will show you how to create and grow your brand step by step. There's no time like now to start building your personal brand. Register now@cnbcmakeit.com Personal Brand ESPN closing in on a deal with Major League Baseball just a day after the news that the league is partnering with NBC Universal. ESPN parent company Disney popping with the market today. Let's get more on what we know with Julia Boorstin. Julia well, Brian, Major League Baseball is closing in on a series of deals for its linear and streaming rights through 2028. With those deals would be with ESPN, NBC Universal, CNBC's parent company, and Netflix. This according to sources close to the situation, though no comment from the mlb. Now the latest is that the MLB is nearing a finalized agreement with ESPN for package of rights for $550 million, according to people familiar. While ESPN's old set of MLB rights was worth the same amount of money, these are different rights. It's about about $450 million to license MLB TV for streaming out of market games. The remainder would cover in market games for five local teams as well as a new midweek package of national games. This according to sources who have told this to my colleague Alex Sherman. Now ESPN's prior package of rights is mostly going to NBC Universal, which will acquire all Sunday night games as well as Wild Card Games for about $200 million per year for that three year period. Meanwhile, Netflix is set to secure the rights for the Home Run Derby for as much as about $50 million a year for three years. Now. No comment from ESPN, NBC Universal or Netflix. It's worth noting these talks are still in progress, so they may not close and they may not close with those terms. Brian, Interesting story there. Julia Borson. Julia, thank you very much. Tim Seymour, Disney Shareholder Good news for Disney and baseball fan. I have to tell you I'm puzzled by Rob Manfred's approach to dealing with the media. And as a baseball fan, I think it's confusing where you're getting your baseball. I think ESPN is a standard, a gold standard. And I do think the intrinsic value of ESPN to Disney is misunderstood. The DTC package and the rebundling here, that's going to make this critical, I think for people to have to subscribe to. I think it's great. And I think Disney's going higher. Disney's going higher. DTC Direct to Consumer all right, Tim, thank you. Coming up, all eyes on Nvidia. Next week's earnings report ticking closer. What our traders are expecting and the option setup on likely the most important stock in the market that's coming up missed a moment of fast. Catch us anytime on the go follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this. If you're just waking up from a long nap or maybe coming out from under a rock. Stocks ripped higher today in hopes of a Fed rate cut. All the major markets up one and a half to almost 2%. Pretty much every group in the market soared today. Those include the airlines, American Airlines, Delta Airlines, Alaska Airlines, all higher today. 5, 6, 7. Alaska up 8%. In other news, could Apple start to date Google at least for AI? Apple reportedly exploring using Google's Gemini AI Assistant to power its revamped Siri Voice Assistant. Both stocks rising with the market today, huh? So let us stay on AI because Nvidia earnings are out on Wednesday. Those numbers, their guidance along with any news on China could certainly I think it's safe to say Steve Grasso drive the market. Nvidia, I think more than just a stock. Yes, that could drive the market. I've been wrong on Nvidia since about 110. That's where I sold my my last entry and Exit was at 110. I thought it would pull back. I thought it would pull back at 125. At 140. This is going to seem like it's stretched to me so I can't buy it at this point. They are the leading chip maker. They're leading in market share amd probably the most relevant competitor to an Nvidia. I can't get on board with it now. I feel as if there's got to be some sort of of a step down on stock price at the very least. But it hasn't come where I thought it would come. Yeah, I think for me all eyes would be on two things. One data center and learning versus versus inference. I think we want to see kind of that revenue mix. I think we also want to see what's coming out of China and what's going on with the age 20. I mean Brian, I know you've covered this ad nauseam. I will say I think that's less while a looming issue. Less of a looming issue because China has gone from 25% or 26% percent to 12 or 13% of revenue. So clearly I think that probably serves as somewhat of a tailwind if you have some upside surprise there. Aside from that. I mean, I hear you Steve. I just think that really looking at this market and looking at the top 10 versus the bottom 490, this is an AI led market and I Have a hard time stepping away from that if I'm going to continue to be a buyer in this market. And then you mentioned amd we saw how that stock reacted on the back of their earnings. I think there's a lot of ground still to make up and I'm still behind Nvidia. Okay, so Tim, what are you looking for from Nvidia on Wednesday? I still think the, the. The expectations on hyperscalers if we're talking about $500 billion a year over the next three years is critical. I think that any commentary on the new China chip, the BA30, the B30A etc. Will give some sense of at least where and when we can kind of time some of the upshift in the Chinese revenues. I think ultimately margin is very important. I know we don't spend as much time on that. I think in video will be fine here. I actually think these numbers are going to be great and I think as we look to the 2627 story until you change that build out by hyperscalers this is a story that's going to continue to support the lofty expectations. Carter, are the Nvidia charts looking fine? Yeah, I mean one thing to point out Brian you mentioned is this the most important. It just speaks to how semis are solely driven by just a handful of names. The equal weighted Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is the same level it was in 2021. That's a long time ago to be hunch. It's really just these marquee names and so much is dependent on names like Nvidia and Envago. And then another way to look at it, the semis as it's weighted the SOX index relative performance to the tech sector peaked in 2021. Semis have been a very difficult area. Not a lot of alpha unless one has been in just a handful of names. And of course Nvidia has been the big one. I'm in the Steve Grasso camp that this is full and I would say take measures. Trim, reduce hedge going into earnings. Okay, well said Mike co. Let's bring in the options action. Check out what the options market is saying. What are they expecting from Nvidia? So right now the options market is implying a move of about 6% after they report that is almost spot on the number what the company has averaged over the past eight reported quarters. We did see calls outpacing puts pretty significantly on above average volume. The most active contracts that didn't expire Today are the 185 calls that are expiring next week. A lot of buyers in there, some institutional sellers as well. In fact, we were among the institutional sellers of those 185 calls. But I think I should mention that we're also long the underlying in good size. So this is kind of the trade that I think that people who are in this and are saying how much further can this thing go? You could actually get a little extra premium out by selling some upside calls against your stock. The example that I have is going out to the October 3rd weeklies, you could sell the 205s, get about two and a quarter. So you can basically give yourself a little bit of tailwind. And additionally you still have material upside. You know, I too recognize this thing has had a huge, huge run here. But you know, you have to stay with the winning trades until you have concrete evidence that they're falling apart. And this one hasn't yet. Well said. And there is the sell of a covered call. Mike Coe with the options action. Mike, thank you. Have a great weekend. All right, coming up, buckle up. Five star technicals heading your way with the Chartmaster season store for Lyft coming up. All right, the entire market went up today. Lyft part of that, in fact, more than the market up 8% in Carter war says that Lyft can keep going higher because Carter, it's breaking out. Well, let's, before we look at the charts, let's just note that of course this stock has been an unmitigated disaster since it came out. Its IPO is in March of 2019. They price it at $70 a share. It hit 89 that day and two days later is at 59. And those are the highs. It was recently low as 10 has never gone higher. Let's look at the long term charts and figure out the way forward. So here is the picture, right, the collapse essentially of the past several years. But it's this basin bottom that is appealing, at least to my eye. Whether you call it a rounding bottom or a bearish to bullish reversal, it has all the elements of something that's curing and healing. Next chart. And also an identical chart, different way to draw the lines. We have just now moved above that well defined downtrend line, in effect since those highs long ago. Another way to consider the circumstance at hand, you'll see here is that Basically this range 10 to 20 that we've been in for the better part of four years, the stock here just to move to the top of the range represents a good trade. So put all those identical Charts together. Final iteration. The lines suggest to my eye, despite the fact that the lines that I drew, that we are headed higher. I think Lyft is a catch up trade for the market. I think it's a stock that has had a horrible existence that is looking better going forward. Okay. Unmitigated disaster, horrible existence. But at least it's looking better going forward. Which makes Steve Grasso happy because you are long lived. I am long lived. And I didn't get caught up in that unmitigated disaster that Carter's talking about. I had bought it recently around the $14 level. I think it does have the propensity to be a double here. I like the Baidu JV strategic partnership in Europe with their, with their autonomous drive car. I like the acquisition of FreeNow. It's the baby, baby, baby baby brother to Uber. It's the direct play in rideshare. Okay. And I think that this one can run, as Carter said, a lot further. Okay. Long Lift. Tim Seymour. You got a take on Lyft like it's always been kind of remember the Brady Bunch? The last season they brought in Oliver, who was like the ninth Brady because everybody else was 42 years old. Sold. You know, I kind of feel like sometimes that's lift. Well, I kind of feel like I'm Sam the Butcher on this one because I've owned this stock for a year and a half. It was in my acronym and I'm long the stock and you know, not from significant. In fact, probably from a bit lower. I've been in the street for a long time. I think the most important news right now is that the two co founders resigned. They got rid of this dual class system. They have a new CEO. I think the street, the analyst community, the investor community, had zero confidence in the former management team. I think that's the reason for the turnaround. And yes, I want to be long here finally. I have a hard time selling it down here. I'm definitely not as rosy as everybody else. With that said, I will say the free cash flow swing from negative to positive. I mean, everyone's already said all the negatives there. So I do think this thing is so bad that perhaps you do have 20 to 30% upside. I just have a hard time. I have a hard time with the opportunity cost of not investing in something else and putting dollars here. Okay, listen, Lyft, maybe on a breakout, like Carter said, it's been unmitigated disaster for a while. All right, coming up, solar stocks, they've had a rough Run. But there is one that our traders say is best in class. A name ahead. All right. It was a big day for the overall market that included solar stocks, SolarEdge, Enphase, both up double digits. All right, so Bonoin, you've been bullish on First Solar for a while, but I think we, I think we have to tell the audience First Solar is utility scale solar company. It trades or it's very different than a SolarEdge or an Enphase. They're different companies. Correct. They get lumped together, but they're not. Yeah, I mean, and that's really why I'm bullish. This one, as you mentioned, utility grade scale as opposed to residential or retail if you will. And I really think that's the case here. Now I have to, I would be, I would not be doing my job if I didn't acknowledge the policy. Possible headwinds and clearly some of the gusto behind alternative energy is no longer there. But you also have on the flip side the tariffs which I think is very much in play here. So you have this USA made moat. You have the 45x credits which are to the tune of a couple of billion dollars. Now again, that is somewhat of a fluid situation. And then you kind of have the visibility in terms of demand and pricing. And if you look at some of the narratives behind some of the other utility grade power generators, this is the same argument for why the data center driven upside has been there. So all in all, I don't think, again you've pointed out, I do not think you want to think of solar as a monolith. But First Solar I think is again, best in class. The same argument why I didn't want Lyft vis a Visa Uber. The same reason why I don't want IWM versus an Nvidia for example. But I think this is where you look, they get lumped in. Steve Grasso, we showed Sunrun on there. Sunrun does residential solar. It's First Solar is a utility scale solar company based in Phoenix, Arizona. Very different company. Yeah, I mean when you look at this, it's going to be by any means necessary. We need more energy. So this point there are regulatory headwinds, but a lot of those things through the, through the cracks are pushed out maybe for another year. So you can get a pop in the stock and you could see this rounding bottom. I do like the aspect that Bono is picking. Best of and breed. That's the only way to go here. But a thing that Bonoin always does is set up stops, stop Limits and limits in, in stocks. These are ripe for that because you get any regulatory headline that pops out and and your gains could be wiped out. Well said. All right guys, thank you very much. Up next, your final traits. Tim Seymour, Kickoff Final trades. Yeah, Brandon, by the way, I think you're seeing a poison cover ban this weekend. So I'll give you a reference for airlines because it seems every airline stock has, every rose has its thorn if I may, but not Delta airlines. And I think airlines are actually going to hit new highs. Delta will. There you go. Thank you. You Carter. Well, speaking of that area of the market, Expedia just now back to its highs of four or five years ago. We think it breaks out to new highs. I want Target. I don't think they did enough. Regardless of political bend, I don't think issuing 2 trillion impossible buying power is good business. Steve, you had a great week this week. You back next week. I am so nice. See you. I'll see you next week. I'm going to go with Ethereum. I think there's a lot of juice left in that. Alright guys, great stuff. Really appreciate it everybody. Have a great weekend. Mad money starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. 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