← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
Stocks Wrap Up Volatile Week In The Red… And Oil Shock “Critical Stage” 3/20/26
00:43:21
Stocks sell off to wrap out a second straight week of losses, with the Nasdaq entering into correction territory. The latest developments out of the Middle East weighing on markets, and if there’s more pain to come next week. Plus it’s not just equities feeling the impact, as oil continuing its climb higher. Why a top energy analyst says we’re reaching a “critical stage” in the recent oil shock, and where he sees prices heading next. Fast Money Disclaimer
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- [00:00]
Keith Lansford
This episode is brought to you by Schwab Market Update, an original podcast from Charles Schwab. Join host Keith Lansford for this information packed daily market Preview delivered in 10 minutes or less, including projected stock updates, monetary policy decisions and key results and statistics that may impact your trading. Download the latest episode and subscribe@schwab.com Market Update podcast or find Schwab Market Update wherever you get your podcasts.
- [00:29]
AT&T Business Wireless Salesperson
Not every sale happens at the register. Before AT&T business Wireless, checking out customers on our mobile POS systems took too long. Basically a staring contest where everyone loses. It's crazy what people will say during an awkward silence. Now transactions are done before the silence takes hold. That means I can focus on the task at hand and make an extra sale or two. Sometimes I do miss the bonding time. Sometimes.
- [00:54]
Tim Seymour
AT&T business Wireless connecting changes everything
- [01:00]
Brian Sullivan
Live for the NASDAQ market site right here in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. It's a big one. Here's what's on tap tonight, a Friday fade from rising energy prices and interest rates to a massive options expiration. Plenty of factors weighing in on investors, the markets, your money and to talk about all to close out the week, how to position yourself now heading into near the end of the month today also the first day of spring and realtors certainly hoping there is some spring in the housing market. Could rising mortgage rates crush those dreams? Plus the crazy big tech story you got to hear an analyst gets a little more spicy on Chipotle and higher rates hitting banks. But are they set? Turn it around. We're going to debate all of that. Hi everybody, I am Brian in from Melissa tonight. Coming to you live from Studio B at the Nasdaq and on your desk on a big Friday, Tim Seymour, Karen Feineman, Steve Grasso and Julie Beal. All right, let's start with your markets. Your money lower across the board. All the major averages down. The S and P falling about a percent and a half today. Now at its lowest level since early September. We are now in a four week losing streak. Small caps crushed. They are now technically in a correction. What is up energy prices? American crude settling up another 2%. Brent crude around $110 a barrel. That's its highest price 2022. And look at interest rates. They're not going down, they're going up. The yield on the ten year popping again, hitting its highest level since August. Meantime, the so called safe haven gold trade anything but on pace for its worst week since 2011. In the news a CBS report the White House is preparing to potentially deploy ground troops in Iran. However, White House press secretary Caroline Leavitt says the president has not made a final decision at this time. But maybe the market story of the day or not we'll talk about it is that There were nearly $6 trillion worth of options expiring in the market today. Notional value. It is one of the largest options expirations ever. So Tim Seymour, we don't know how much of a role that may have played, if any, but what was your take on the market action today, the options activity and anything else on your mind?
- [03:29]
Tim Seymour
Well, the options activity, which is a quarterly expiry which already was going to be extraordinary as we were talking about is one of the largest numbers of all times in terms of notional that traded. And what you're also seeing is that actually that that activity in the last call it 20 minutes of the day was fur previous and what led to was an S and P that closed below a 6500 NASDAQ below a 24,000. These are very important levels and they're levels of risk that I think we're being protected and have broken. So we'll see where we come back in on Monday and where people obviously have re hedged and through thrown a lot of index options back out there. We've also talked about how the indices themselves have been very placid on the surface with a lot of tumult before below them the indices are starting to give ground and people are starting to actually use those indices as as hedging mechanisms.
- [04:17]
Brian Sullivan
But it sounds like you are closely watching that. We closed above 6500. We're at 6506. But that 6500 level, big deal.
- [04:26]
Tim Seymour
Yeah, I think it is. I think the we've been dancing around the 200 day in both these indices and I'll leave it to the pure chartist, but the technical damage is something that you have to watch on this market to this point. We haven't we've actually been extremely resilient and today was a concern.
- [04:43]
Karen Feineman
So if you look at the put call ratio as of two days ago, the 18th it was 1.26 which means 126 puts for every hundred calls that are out there. That's decidedly bearish. So if you go below its point seven would be bullish. So much lower having said went from
- [05:05]
Brian Sullivan
point 7 to 1 1.26 which is a big change from where big change.
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Karen Feineman
So just giving the guidepost what's bullish what's bearish. So if those, if those puts expire worthless, then those hedges come off. So the dealers have to hedge against those shorts. So they have to be short as well. So they're short going into the end of the day.
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Brian Sullivan
That leaves a cleaner.
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Karen Feineman
Not clean, a cleaner slate on Monday with a bounce potential. Huge caveat.
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Ben Emmons
Yeah.
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Brian Sullivan
So. So yes.
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Karen Feineman
Any headlines that are negative for the market.
- [05:37]
Brian Sullivan
This is wonky stuff. This used to be. I mean, this is not options action, but I mean, it could be today. Right. We could be calling this options action. Let me just be a little more direct for the audience that are not options experts, which is.
- [05:48]
Karen Feineman
And by the way, this is very macro. I'm not an options expert, but it sounds like stuff is put call ratio. This is what it, what was, what
- [05:56]
Brian Sullivan
was the role in the market today? Right.
- [05:59]
Karen Feineman
Especially towards the end of the day.
- [06:01]
Brian Sullivan
Yeah.
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Karen Feineman
So Tim touched on it. When you have the expiration going and you get that weight on it at the end of the day, that's more single stock because your indices are more gauged for the opening. So the single stock expiry is for the close.
- [06:15]
Steve Grasso
But then that last 10 minutes was actually, you know, the market rallied, which
- [06:21]
Brian Sullivan
maybe that's even worse.
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Steve Grasso
Yes, yes. But the last 10 minutes, actually the Vix moved from north of 29, closed at 2678. So normally, you know, on a weekend where a lot of things are going on, the VIX would be, I think, probably a little more elevated going into the weekend. I don't know.
- [06:39]
Karen Feineman
Or if they were playing with. Playing the bounce on Monday. If you, if you have savvier people.
- [06:45]
Steve Grasso
The bounce on Monday.
- [06:46]
Karen Feineman
Potential. Potential.
- [06:48]
Steve Grasso
But I think people are, you know, there was a hope early on, we're four weeks into this now that it would be already over or that it would be quick. And that doesn't seem to be the case right now. And then also you have rates higher, that stock price lower. So going into a weekend, I mean, I'm long. I'm always long. So this is really not a delightful week. But.
- [07:07]
Karen Feineman
And every dip historically has been a
- [07:09]
Brian Sullivan
buying opportunity, I guess Julie Beal being even a little more direct, just, I guess what I'm. What I'm trying to figure out for our audience is how much of today's action in the markets down 2%, big down day. But Karen's point didn't end on the low. But how much of today's market action was quote, unquote, real fundamental, and how much was accelerated or magnified or whatever word you want to use. By the massive options expiration. I don't know if we can know. But it had to have played a role.
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Julie Beal
Yes, I think it had to have played a role. We know directionally people are trying to protect themselves because a lot of bad news tends to be happening on the weekends. And so I think people try to get into a posture and that is a little bit lighter on risk going into weekends because they're nervous about whatever headline risk is waiting for them on the other side of that. And I really think that just the fact that we're talking about the last 10 minutes of action in the markets, it really tells you just how uncertain people are that we're having this much directional movement where people know they want to be invested in the market because buy the dip has worked for the last 10 years. But at the same time you, it's really hard to just ignore interest rates going up, gas prices going up and this much movement in the market. So while I think that the options can always exacerbate the market action, I really think that the bigger underlying problem is that, you know, this doesn't look like it's going to be ending anytime soon, particularly if we're talking about boots on the ground.
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Tim Seymour
Yeah. And I think the uncertainty in rates is also the other part of today. I mean today, today was a day where it felt like we were really breaking higher.438 close in the 10 year by the way, that closed at the high, no love there. And if you look at rates across Europe, 10 year bond, which has had a bigger move, we've talked about that. The global rate story has actually even been more extreme. So it's a day when the bond markets are kind of reinforcing what the equity markets are doing. And I know we're about to have a great conversation, but you're getting the, you're getting the flation with the stag. And that's really what I think the market is, was doing today. And I would just go out and say what you're seeing on the index level is also a catch up. But we are not priced for recession, we are not priced for a major growth slowdown. And I think that's where the market, I mean, yes, as much as you want to talk about an options expiry today to me was further deterioration of the sense of where this market is and it was all fundamentals.
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Brian Sullivan
All right, so let's expand this conversation. Bring in our friend Ben Emmons. He is chief investment officer at FedWatch Advisor, managing director at Highline Asset Management, longtime former PIMCO. Exact. So you're perfect on the Fed and markets. So I'm going to ask you about something completely different. You're welcome not to harp on it, but how much do you think because you wrote about it, does this options expiration fact? I'm just trying to gauge how much this might matter for Monday morning.
- [10:05]
Ben Emmons
Yeah, well it sounds like when Karen I were looking at these numbers I was like 60% were puts rolled over. So that does that tells me this downside protection being extended. People are I guess indeed worried. I have no idea what will happen this weekend. More attacks, whatever could happen. And as a result, you know, I want to protect myself more to the downside. What's the easiest way put on the S and P I guess. Right.
- [10:27]
Brian Sullivan
Or not selling stocks but buying insurance if you will in the form of a put. Yeah, buying insurance because we never know. We could wake up tomorrow morning and have a major escalation in the Gulf or we could wake up tomorrow morning and not hear anything new about it. We don't know exactly.
- [10:44]
Ben Emmons
So. So, so you buy a put that's like a low insurance cost for something that could be really bad and if it doesn't then you let it expire and then go from there.
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Brian Sullivan
So I guess you know is what Tim talked about which is a 10 year at 4.38%. Okay, the markets now you look at the CME Fed watch tool, there's actually a slight tick up in the odds of a rate hike hike not cut by the end of the year. How much? If we had four and if we hit four and a half on the 10 year what's going to happen to the equity markets?
- [11:17]
Ben Emmons
Yeah, I guess that's where the pressure point will be because we're getting this hike priced in because I think the bond market is getting worried that okay, fat you're going to step ahead of this, you're going to get ahead of the curve and perhaps slam the brakes to try and avoid an inflation problem as we had back in 2022. And this is why that rate cut, sorry rate hike probability goes up. But if you hit four and a half, there's a lot of positions I think get watched out to. Just like you see in the equity market more downside protection perhaps being built in the bond market to you drive yourself towards 5%. That will be pretty painful moment.
- [11:52]
Tim Seymour
So Ben, if the Fed had their meeting and we had, we had Powell statement on Tuesday of next week week, do you think it would be that much more hawkish? Because I think we got a statement that actually had a lot of hawk in it and but left a lot of optionality, I guess to use the term that we've been using. But I get the sense and it sounds to me like you're telling me that the Fed is ready to actually kick up the hawkish mode.
- [12:15]
Ben Emmons
Yeah, I think that is. Sorry, Tim. It is actually because, you know, you got Bowman today, Michelle Bowman, she was still talking about three cuts from for this year. Waller was on early on CNBC this morning with Steve and still thinking, well the tariffs are going to roll off. We have room to cut. So I guess there's still within the Fed an opinion there that this energy shock is just going to fade away and not going to be transitory. The old transitory team transitory T word is back.
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Tim Seymour
That's why, that's why I used it. Brian.
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Karen Feineman
Right.
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Tim Seymour
Family why I used it.
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Ben Emmons
The Tim was. Yeah, so anyway, the, I guess what they're at is that they could get a lot more hawkish now. If you look at 2022 in March of that, that year, that's when they started sort of changing their tone. You know, these large language models have these readouts. I was looking at it today, there was a pretty big move up in that readout to Hawkish was sort of like about the same quarter of a way of that, that sort of tone shift. So we could get indeed a lot more hawkish. But it depends, I think on how long this goes on with this energy price shock. If we have to see the inflation data coming out mid mid April, what's the first effect there and how they're going to react to that. But it did sound to me from Powell that he was like what we worry about the most as we sleep at night.
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Karen Feineman
So Ben, you just use the 2022 comparison, right. But we had CPI a couple of months after that spike in oil reached 9% or thereabouts. We're nowhere near that. There's a different backdrop to this scenario. And rates were at zero. Right. So there was, there was not a lot we can do basically coming off of that level. What would raising rates do to a supply shock other than push us into a recession?
- [13:57]
Ben Emmons
Yeah, and that's the thinking. Right. So what they're thinking is that if inflation expectations start to move higher, we need to get ahead of this issue because otherwise this gets out of control. But to your point, if you do that, you slam the brake, you slam the brake on the economy, you could be off worse. Meaning you keep still having high inflation and unemployment Goes up. So tricky moment I guess, you know, no good answer to it. But I do think that Tim's question is about they could get a lot more hawkish and they probably will because in their mind, the Fed's mind, thinking they don't want to repeat what happened in 2022, they rather get ahead of it. And that's what I got from Powell myself out of the press conference. But he said literally what keeps us up at night is these inflation expectations. They go at too much, too much, too fast to up too quickly. Then they have an issue.
- [14:44]
Steve Grasso
So we talked about, you know, during COVID when, when the transitory interest rates or inflation was 9, you also had an unemployment rate of 8 or 6. I mean it was dropping but still very elevated. So do you think now that given unemployment is ticking up for the tiniest bit though from 43 to 444 ish, that they, they had sort of been leaning towards unemployment as the, the, the more important mandate at the moment. Do you think that still is the case or do you think inflation will be the more important mandate?
- [15:20]
Ben Emmons
I think we're shifting to inflation. From the Powell tone that I got from that think of that, that speech In Jackson Hole, 2022 can bad year. But the paint speech, he was already talking about like if we're getting price stability, then also getting employment stability. That thinking I think comes back now given the shock that we have because it's off the charts. Obviously they do know, they, they say we don't know how much is going to go on, how far it will be, but they want to get ahead of it. I think that's the insurance.
- [15:48]
Brian Sullivan
Ben Emmons, it's a great conversation, appreciate your knowledge, your experience.
- [15:52]
Ben Emmons
Thank you.
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Brian Sullivan
Thank you very much. You know, Julie Beal, come in here and I do want to remind our audience that in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine, oil went to 125. The S&P was roughly 4400. It fell to 3600, about a 17% drop. Julie, over the course of about six months, we're down like 4 or 5% this year on the S&P. 500 mid term years also tend to be a little more volatile. Do you worry that the markets writ large, it's kind of the markets as an entity have gotten a little too complacent or are you fine with where we are?
- [16:25]
Julie Beal
Look, I think where we are makes sense for most in the market because we just have this kind of underlying bid that always exists that's about buying the dip. But I do Think that there is a difference between where we were in 2022 and where we are now today. Valuations are very different just to get started. But even beyond that, what we're talking about here that's happening in the Gulf is the damaging pretty central infrastructure that's used for the entire global energy market. It was a little bit different what was happening in Ukraine and Russia. It didn't have quite the same knock on impact for the rest of the world. So I do think that it's a little bit more meaningful than that case in itself. And I think the challenge is, is that we keep thinking of these markets as really separate between, you know, WTI and Brent whatever. But it is a more global market than I think we're recognizing. And I think we have to recognize that the input costs that are coming through for most producers, for most consumers are going to be meaningfully higher.
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Brian Sullivan
Yes. And by the way, they're paid $150 a barrel in Oman. 100. Yeah.
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Tim Seymour
The paper versus the paper physical.
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Brian Sullivan
The PH different than what?
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Tim Seymour
Control out of control. And Asian refiners are paying major, major premiums to get oil. This is, you know, this is what's going on. And the view is that that actually that the, the, the paper markets, so the futures markets are responding to rhetoric and you can only respond to rhetoric and release of strategic reserves. But for how long? And I think, and just you know, because we're talking about 22, we're talking about the oil shock 22. The reason it's different is because we had double digit inflation in this country. We had a Fed that was so far behind the curve. This was a very aggressive Fed hike that ultimately culminated in when CPI peaked in October of 22 is when the market went on a generational run. But what was going on in early to mid 22 folks was really a response to a Fed that was as hawkish as they had been in a generation.
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Karen Feineman
So, so I do like to take contrarian views on oil specifically because I think the market swings way too much in either direction. I think if, if, if and when we get a resolution to this, the sooner the better.
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Brian Sullivan
But I will be a resolution at
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Karen Feineman
some point, some point there's going to be a resolution.
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Brian Sullivan
I don't know what that is.
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Karen Feineman
Those Iranian barrels really needs the straits open.
- [18:41]
Brian Sullivan
It's going to be something.
- [18:42]
Karen Feineman
Those Iranian barrels of oil, 3 to 4 million per day that mostly go to China right now that are sanctioned, they will be unsanctioned. They are not.
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Brian Sullivan
There are reports of that OPEC does
- [18:53]
Karen Feineman
not put quotas on them. They do not have to adhere to that. Then there's going to be an OPEC plus, by the way. No one, no one adheres to the. You know that. No one adheres to the quotas in opec, period. So if you do have Iran come to market with their barrels, it's going to be a lot more than 3 to 4 million per day. And OPEC is going to compete structures. No, no one. I think no one's hitting loans up. No one's hitting Iran yet on infrastructure yet.
- [19:20]
Brian Sullivan
They're. We're dancing around it.
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Karen Feineman
We're dancing around it. So can we just go on my. My journey, my fantasy world right now?
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John Kilduff
This is it.
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Karen Feineman
This is my contrarian bet. It doesn't help if that happens. Iran comes on, a friendlier government comes on, and you have 10 million, 8 million barrels come to market. OPEC starts fighting. We get back to the oversupplied state that we're in before February 28th, the bottom falls out in oil. Yes, the risk premium's higher, but it drops precipitously from where we are.
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Tim Seymour
Of course, your fantasy referred to a friendlier government.
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Brian Sullivan
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
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Karen Feineman
Well, I don't think we're stopping. I don't think we're stopping until we get a full regime change.
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Brian Sullivan
I'm not sure there is.
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Tim Seymour
Welcome to Vietnam.
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Brian Sullivan
A lot of people I know, I'm just.
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Karen Feineman
No, come on. We're four weeks into it. We're the microwave market. We're four weeks into it. Let's give it some time. There.
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Brian Sullivan
There's the view, and that's why we're here. And there's a Simpsons where Homer's like, we're from the land of chocolate. And he danced in his music. You know, what always comes true runs through the chocolate. Coming up, financial woes for big banks. The KB E Bank etf worst month in a year. As the rates Tim talked about, they move higher. As for the group, whether our traders see a bounce back, well, you got to stay tuned to find out. Plus, this story, I'd say you got to hear it to believe it. But even when you hear it, you may not believe it. Christina Parzone stopped with this super micro smuggling scheme that involved hair dryers, hidden cameras, and somebody still on the lam. We're back after this.
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Christina Parzone
Oh.
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Jennifer
Could this vintage store be any cuter?
- [21:00]
Tim Seymour
Right?
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Christina Parzone
And the best part, they accept Discover.
- [21:03]
Jennifer
Except Discover in a little place like this? I don't think so, Jennifer.
- [21:07]
Christina Parzone
Oh, yeah. Huh. Discover's accepted where I like to shop.
- [21:11]
Unknown Female (Shopping Companion)
Come on baby, get with the times, right?
- [21:14]
Jennifer
So we shouldn't get the parachute pants.
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Christina Parzone
These are making a comeback, I think.
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Tim Seymour
Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide, based on the February 2025 Nielsen report.
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Keith Lansford
This episode is brought to you by Schwab Market Update, an original podcast from Charles Schwab. Join host Keith Lansford for this information packed daily market Preview delivered in 10 minutes or less, including projected stock updates, monetary policy decisions and key results and statistics that may impact your trading. Download the latest episode and subscribe@schwab.com MarketUpdatePodcast or find Schwab Market Update wherever you get your podcasts.
- [21:56]
AT&T Business Wireless Delivery Driver
Before we had ATT Business Wireless coverage, our delivery GPS wasn't the most reliable. Once our driver had to do a 14 point turn to get back on route. A 14 point turn. An influencer even livestream the whole thing. Not good for business. Now with AT&T business Wireless, routes are updating on the fly and deliveries are on time. And the influencer did get us 53 new followers though.
- [22:21]
Tim Seymour
AT&T business Wireless Connecting changes everything.
- [22:43]
Brian Sullivan
All right, we've got some breaking news right now in a new Truth social post from President Trump. He literally just put this out while we were in commercial break, so we haven't had time to look at it all. I glanced at it. It's long. We're going to read it all because it is the President, United States. And then everybody can respond. Quote, we're very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great military efforts in the Middle east with respect to the terrorist regime of Iran. Colon. Number one, completely degrading Iranian missile capability, launches and everything else pertaining to them. Number two, destroying Iran's defense industrial base. Number three, eliminating their navy and air force, including anti aircraft weaponry. Number four, never allowing Iran to even get close to nuclear capability. As always being in a position where the US can quickly and powerfully react to such a situation should it take place. Number five, protecting at the highest level are Middle Eastern allies including Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait and others. Then Trump goes on to say the Strait of Hormuz will have to be guarded and policed as necessary by other nations who use it. The United States does not, if asked. Or does. Yeah, does not. There we go. Does not use it. I'm trying to. It's. There's. Read the post. It's sometimes the inflection, you're losing steam. If asked, we will help these countries in their Hormuz efforts, but it shouldn't be necessary once Iran's threat is eradicated. Importantly, it will be an easy military operation for them. A lot there. We haven't even had a chance to look at it. I'm going to go to the beginning of it. Tim Seymour.
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Tim Seymour
Okay, I'm up first.
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Brian Sullivan
We can, I think what the market will react to and I'm tell me
- [24:32]
Tim Seymour
I'm wrong because what's to the end of our military?
- [24:34]
Brian Sullivan
We are winding down the military effort
- [24:38]
Tim Seymour
and, and also we don't want to police the Straits of Hormuz, which probably now need to be, and it should be because we don't get our oil through there, we don't receive our oil through there, we don't send our oil through there. This is up to those folks that actually use the Straits. Look, there's nothing but positive if you believe all of this is true. And by the way, that includes the part that the President talks about in terms of neutering Iran, so to speak. And I do think this is a case where there has been an enormous amount of damage inflicted. There has been a regime change. There have been a lot of things and I don't even want to talk about the political goals and what's been arrived at. But, but we went into this weekend and we talked about options expiry and Ben talked about it, Steve talked about it, Karen talked about it, you talked about it, Julie talked about it. It was the dynamic of rolling forward because the fear is this is an extension of the conflict. We've got infrastructure that's been blown up, we've got an extension of what this means. This obviously is the opposite of that. And so, you know, if you can qualify these comments and if they are reinforced, there's a lot to work through in there. It's not that simple.
- [25:52]
Steve Grasso
So I do think if other nations were to take that on and actually patrol or do whatever was necessary to open the Strait of Hormuz, I think that would be a huge positive. I think the United States may end up being part of that as well if that happens. I mean, I think that the president sees the market not really enjoying this conflict and, you know, four weeks are down that he would like to end it sooner rather than later. Regime change hasn't been. We don't know what the regime is, so we don't know if it's changed. But I think you talked about what the pain that's been inflicted and the destruction of question. I believe that absolutely. So in part, mission accomplished.
- [26:34]
Brian Sullivan
Right.
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Karen Feineman
So a couple things I don't know who's advising him to release it on a Friday night. I'd prefer this post to be Sunday or Potentially Monday at 9:15, 9:20am 9:29:59. So maybe he should repost it or do something else because that's the proper time to do it. Tree. Tree falls in the forest.
- [26:55]
Ben Emmons
Right.
- [26:56]
Karen Feineman
So this is something where I think you see that Tim started off commenting on the straight up from movies. We don't use it, we don't need it. It doesn't have to be policed by us. That's why you see the spread between WTI and Brent just expanding out. And I think the market's starting to get it correct. They didn't have it correct before. And any positive news will make the futures okay.
- [27:18]
Brian Sullivan
We're showing. And guys, I know. Give us a minute to breathe. Is breaking news a big deal? I think we're showing the markets the after hours S and P, the spy and the qqq. They are up a little bit. They're not recouping. Tim, what they lost today. They're up 710 of 1%. And I want to hedge that again, reading the president's social media post as we consider winding down our great military efforts in the Middle East. He's not saying we are, we are considering it. When and if there is some military end to this, whatever that end, is that a market ripper?
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Karen Feineman
100%.
- [27:58]
Tim Seymour
Well, I think we still haven't realized what the impact of this event was and I if it was going to be a quick rebound two weeks ago. Yeah, I mean, I think, I think markets will get back to assessing where, where earnings growth is and thinking about a fed that probably their next move is ultimately a cut. If that's where we are. There's no question it's going to take some time to rebuild some infrastructure, but I think the markets will price that in.
- [28:29]
Brian Sullivan
All right, show's halfway down. We got halfway to go. We're going to kind of digest this tweet or whatever you want to call it. Take a look more at it, see how the markets react. More fast money right after this.
- [28:40]
Jennifer
Oh, could this vintage store be any cuter?
- [28:43]
Unknown Female (Shopping Companion)
Right?
- [28:43]
Christina Parzone
And the best part, they accept Discover.
- [28:46]
Jennifer
Except Discover in a little place like this. I don't think so. Jennifer.
- [28:50]
Christina Parzone
Oh yeah, huh. Discover is accepted where I like to shop.
- [28:53]
Unknown Female (Shopping Companion)
Come on, baby, get with the times.
- [28:56]
Jennifer
Right. So we shouldn't get the parachute pants.
- [28:59]
Christina Parzone
These are making a comeback, I think.
- [29:03]
Tim Seymour
Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide. Based on the February 2025 Nielsen report
- [29:10]
Keith Lansford
this episode is brought to you by Schwab Market Update, an original podcast from Charles Schwab. Join host Keith Lansford for this information packed daily market Preview delivered in 10 minutes or less, including projected stock updates, monetary policy decisions and key results and statist that may impact your trading. Download the latest episode and subscribe@schwab.com MarketUpdatePodcast or find Schwab Market Update wherever you get your podcasts.
- [29:39]
AT&T Business Wireless Salesperson
Not every sale happens at the Register Before ATT Business Wireless, checking out customers on our mobile POS systems took too long. Basically a staring contest where everyone loses. It's crazy what people will say during an awkward silence. Now transactions are done before the silence takes hold. That means I can focus on the task at hand and make an extra sale or two. Sometimes I do miss the bonding time.
- [30:03]
Tim Seymour
Sometimes AT&T business Wireless connecting changes everything.
- [30:11]
Brian Sullivan
All right, this story is unbelievable. Super Micro shares lost one third of the value today after some of their employees, including a co founder were charged with smuggling Nvidia chips to China. This is the worst day for Supermicro since October 2018, when they had some pretty serious accounting issues. Christina Partzonevel has been following the story all day and joins us now with
- [30:36]
Christina Parzone
more with more A web of lies, fake servers and blow dryers.
- [30:40]
Brian Sullivan
That's just Friday night.
- [30:41]
Christina Parzone
Yes, at my house. No, just talking. Super Micros co founders like you talked about, Wally Lia really charged, along with two other company associates with smuggling billions of dollars in servers to China in violation of U.S. export controls. And the latest news just within the last hour is that that co founder has resigned from Supermicro's board. Effectively. Now you would assume that something like that would happen, but surveillance cameras that we're showing you right now inside a warehouse caught the defendants in the act, surrounded by dummy servers, blow dryer in hand, swapping serial numbers ahead of government audit. So you can see just on the right hand side the red thing in her hand because I see Tim looking that is a blow dryer. $2.5 billion in servers allegedly funneled to China since 2024. You could have used it this morning. 510 million in a single three week stretch just last spring. Super Micro is not named as a defendant, but that may not be enough to contain the damage. Bernstein is already asking whether Nvidia will feel the need to distance itself entirely from Supermicro. Add in that the company had an accounting scandal in 2018 and was delisted and then ey walking out as auditor back in 2024 and the compliance questions here go well beyond just three individuals
- [31:52]
Brian Sullivan
guys so who wants to take this one because 2018 delisted counting scandal Ey walks now the co found one of the co founders is allegedly smuggling Nvidia chips to China by using a blow dryer to unseal the whatever so are we taking out a mortgage and buying all micro here Karen or definitely not.
- [32:15]
Steve Grasso
No no that was a yes I know yes I realized I am long Dell which good for it is good for Dell it is I mean the more market share Dell can get the better I think I don't know how I mean I was sort of surprised how that well they bounced back from that prior scandal which was I mean the inter like the ridiculous payments to the you know the cousin or the brother in law this that I don't know how they're.
- [32:42]
Brian Sullivan
Yeah Julie Beale you got to take I mean you know dude, you're getting a Dell I guess you have to
- [32:47]
Julie Beal
I don't know I just flex the desperation that people want to be able to play in some of these AI themes that they're willing to overlook some pretty dubious and sketchy past I mean this is like a Scooby Doo caper the way this has turned out and I think it really reflects some pretty poor decision making and management and I for one would be staying away as
- [33:08]
Brian Sullivan
much as possible that was the most diplomatic thing it was very. Julie Beale was perfect it was like very diplomatic like this was dubious like Scooby Doobious she wow.
- [33:20]
Steve Grasso
Yeah good stuff Friday soinks Thank you
- [33:22]
Brian Sullivan
all right coming on banks bad month the group Is down nearly 6% in March is there hope for financials to rebound from here or will all banks in America go away? We're back right after this. All right the S and P bank ETF on pace for its worst month in a year it's called the KB dropped more than 5% so far this month among the worst stocks in that you got Western Alliance Bancshares 5th 3rd Truist Huntingdon Karen, you've been watching some of these moves your take so I
- [34:02]
Steve Grasso
think it's overdone I mean I'm on the money center banks which have had a horrible run also so sort of switching that for a second and there's a lot of things that you know the concern about credit quality are we going to see a meaningful increase in consumer problem loans? Are we going to see for the big money center banks private credit is that going to be a big thing? But I think there's some positives as well. I don't know why this one was ditched. This area was ditched so, so heavily. I actually think if I own none, I would certainly be buying right now.
- [34:33]
Tim Seymour
Yeah, I think they're getting it from all sides, though. They're getting it from some concern that they actually do have some loans into the private lending community. They're not making them directly. There's some sense that there is a, a, an inflationary dynamic out there. There's a sense that there's a slower growth in a consumer that may fall under some pressure. But, but most importantly, banks were the, you know, they were the best sector going into this. The cyclicality and the sensitivity. That's why banks are what they are. And as an investment, when things were really starting to break out, they outperformed. I think this is as much about positioning. It was an absolute overweight and I think people reeled it in.
- [35:09]
Karen Feineman
I also think you have a little bit of that crypto overhang. There's a smaller section of it with stablecoins and crypto companies being able to split interest in holding Treasuries for stablecoins. I think that does take. There's been estimates that it could take as much as 10% of their deposit flows on a lot of these banks. It depends on what kind of bank you own. But to Karen and Tim's point, this was about D reg. This was about pro growth. This was a huge ramp up that we got off the Trump bump. And now you're starting to see a lot of these stories sort of grow mold on them or grow hair on them. So at a certain point you're taking a little bit out of them. But to Karen's, to Karen's statement, if she owned none, she'd probably buy them. Now. I think the banks have the ability to rally off a bottom.
- [35:58]
Julie Beal
Julie Beal Yeah, I think the level of cyclicality that the banks have is a real reflection of why people are moving away from them. It's not like they're going to be delivering a ton of growth. They've missed a lot of the opportunities that we saw in credit. Now that's going to wind back. But I do think the positive thing about them is that most of them haven't really participated in the worst of the lending. And I think they'll come out looking pretty good as long as they have good, structurally strong balance sheets. But for the most part, I mean, I think people are kind of recognizing like it's a bank. There's really a limit of how much it can really do, even if we deregulate.
- [36:31]
Brian Sullivan
All right, well said. Looking at the banks. All right, coming up, we're going to switch gears. The energy complex is getting complex or more complex. While your next guest says the oil shock is nearing a critical stage where he sees prices heading as the conflict continues. Stick around. All right, oil prices higher today with both Brent crude and WTI crude, which is the one traded here, settling up about 3% for the week though Brent jumping about 9%. WTI crude slightly down actually broke a four week win streak. Your next guest warns the oil shock is heading into a critical stage. John Kilduff joining us again. He's with again Capital, the founder of that. John. And then of course we had this social media post, the president, we're still trying to unwind that. Absent of that, what's your take on energy and oil right now?
- [37:28]
John Kilduff
Well, the post actually feeds into a degree, Brian, because if the priority here is not on the Strait of Hormuz, then the oil price will continue to rally higher here. This is an unprecedented outage as everyone knows. More than 10 million barrels a day are offline, will continue to be offline and they've pulled every trick out of the book. Now in terms of trying to blunt the near term effect of this with the sanctions relief on Venezuela, Russian, potentially Iranian oil and other measures like, you know, suspending the Jones act and the like. So and the global SPR releases, all of those things though are unfortunately just band aids on a wound that's just hemorrhaging here in terms of volumes. And so today we ended before the post hit, you know, near the, near the highs for the recent trading ranges on both Brent and wti. I know every, your viewers are well aware that the Middle east markers are much higher than that. We're seeing diesel over $5. So without relief and control of the Strait of Hormuz taken away from Iran, which they have effectively right now, or even just the ability of Iran to terrorize ships as they try to pass through it. We are on a trajectory higher, full stop.
- [38:49]
Tim Seymour
Hey John, Tim, you've been doing this forever so it's great to have this conversation with you. I feel like we've, we've been through some supply shocks together but where is the damage now? So we're trying to have a conversation about, you know, and how the market is extending out timelines. But, but let's just say there's a lot in this, in this post that can be enacted upon and where, you know, all we've heard about are lng plants in Qatar. All we've heard about are terminals that have been blown up. What is the damage right now and what is your sense on normalcy in a world where we get a turnaround?
- [39:26]
John Kilduff
I mean the damage is that you're seeing for example Iraq talk about shutting down production from, oh I'm sorry, only from the foreign operated plants that are in Iraq which is only about 90% of their production. You're seeing everything done hook and by crook to get oil out to various other pipelines by Saudi Arabia and uae. None of it's enough. None of it's enough. This is the mother of all supply outages. I've been trying to do the math on the 1973 situation. It's close. This one is starting to exceed it. But the problem is the shut ins that we're hearing about production wise in these countries is going to take time itself to write. So there will be great relief if we can ever get the straight the announcement that the strait is now navigable. Oil prices I would imagine would fall 10 to $15 a barrel. However, we're not going to be going back anytime soon to the 60s and low 50s that we were in as we were ruminating over a glut situation this time of year as opposed to the war situation we're in right now.
- [40:32]
Karen Feineman
So John, when you look at the back months, I know the the government is thinking about doing some smart swap with the spr. That has been done before but it hasn't been done recently. What do you think about the back months? So Tim asked you where you think we settle in the back months in wti. Crude still have us dramatically lower by year end. Is that just too much of a Pollyanna viewpoint?
- [40:58]
John Kilduff
I think it's reflective of the trap door that's under this market that I just referenced. Again you get the flows going back through the strait. The prices will retreat. But those back month prices have come up markedly now as well. They're all posting over $70 a barrel for the most part. And that will be some sense of relief. But I think we have to get through. And why I said that this is the critical stage we're in. It's because the loss of supply is really going to start to bite. Now. We're already starting to hear about spot shortages out in Asia especially. I already talked about the high diesel price and jet fuel out that way. But as these shortages start to grow and manifest, you're going to see the call on global crude oil all over the world that they will take a tanker if that's the only supply out of the Texas Gulf and send it over to wherever it has to go. And that is going to push the prices of WTI up higher and higher and you'll see the gap get closed that we're experiencing right now. This is an acute situation, though. This is an acute situation that the straight opening rectifies.
- [42:03]
Brian Sullivan
Yeah. And that's the big question. John Kilduff again, capital. John, really appreciate that. Julie, you, buyer of these oil and gas stocks invested in anything, by the way, the refiners are up like 75% in three months.
- [42:15]
Julie Beal
Yeah, it's pretty meaningful, I think for us. We tend to avoid these kind of stocks because they're really difficult much relation to the commodity prices. So it's for us not a quality play. But I think it's really notable for all of us to recognize just how interconnected the markets are and how it can really ripple through our entire economy.
- [42:36]
Brian Sullivan
Julie Beal, appreciate that. All right, programming note, by the way, speaking of oil, gas and energy, we're going to be live at the Sierra Week conference in Houston on Monday and Tuesday. We have got an amazing lineup. ConocoPhillips Secretary Burgum, Secretary Wright, Lorenzo Simonelli, we got GE Vernova, we've got, you name it, we got them that we can't even fit them on the board. There's more.
- [42:57]
Karen Feineman
All right.
- [42:57]
Brian Sullivan
Coming up here on FAST money, we're gonna talk housing and if the spring selling season will truly bloom.
- [43:03]
Steve Grasso
What's.
- [43:18]
Brian Sullivan
I got some breaking news. A verdict in the case against Elon Musk for buying Twitter shares without disclosing the stake ahead of his eventual purchase of the platform. Pippa Stevens has more. Pippa.
- [43:29]
Unknown Female (Shopping Companion)
Hey, Brian. So a jury in the San Francisco federal court is holding Musk liable for misleading investors during that Twitter takeover. So this the suit alleged that his flip flopping commentary around the move to buy Twitter back in 2022 was in a bid to manipulate the stock price. Now Bloomberg is reporting the damages paid to individual investors could total in the hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars and will be determined at a later date. Brian.
- [43:53]
Brian Sullivan
All right, Pippa, thank you very much. All right, moving on. It is the first day of spring. Happy Friday. Now this time of year normally means a big pop in home sales, but could this year be different? We've had a move up, look at that in mortgage rates. Also, home prices are growing at a slower rate than they were last year. They're up but at a slower pace. So what do we think, Tim? Like housing how close are you watching?
- [44:19]
Tim Seymour
I feel like all we do is talk about a housing market that can't get out of its own way and that actually the price action in the homebuilders is disturbing. I mean, there's a dynamic also where the margins are getting a whole lot worse. I mean the cost and the input costs here are getting worse. But that mortgage rate is what it comes down to. That mortgage rate is not, you know, is not happening. We had those new home sales numbers out on, I think it was Wednesday. They were, I think 150,000 below expectations. I mean this is a housing market that needs lower interest rates. And right now, first half of this show, what were we talking about? Rates are moving higher.
- [44:55]
Brian Sullivan
Yeah.
- [44:55]
Karen Feineman
And you have the bifurcated market. You have the existing home sales, you have new home sales. Existing home sales have been locked up. People own a mortgage, they don't own a home. And in order for them to be untrapped by the mortgage rate, it's got to be somewhere in the fives. We're going the wrong direction on that. We need lower rates. The market hasn't sniffed it out yet. Usually stocks are forward looking mechanisms, they don't see the end coming. But it's always something that shocks the most amount of people at any given point.
- [45:23]
Brian Sullivan
I'm glad you're not a realtor. You don't own a home, you own a mortgage. It's not incorrect, by the way. Up next, your final trades. All right, Julie Beal, kick off final trades, if you would.
- [45:43]
Julie Beal
One company that benefits from trade disturbance is Descartes. They help companies navigate it.
- [45:48]
Brian Sullivan
Nice. Descartes, French company.
- [45:51]
Tim Seymour
You were just in parody. Next time too, by the way.
- [45:55]
Julie Beal
Uranium.
- [45:56]
Tim Seymour
This is a case where, if anything, the use case for uranium, the demand cycle for uranium, very much in play. And in fact CCJ has sold off more on the fact that it's been a frothy trade itself. I think you're buying CCJ weakness.
- [46:09]
Brian Sullivan
Okay, yes.
- [46:11]
Steve Grasso
Mine is not smci. It's down a third today. It's not too far. Thirds as good as it was yesterday. More downside here. Even with the big short. Interest, not smci.
- [46:23]
Brian Sullivan
That's your final trade.
- [46:24]
Steve Grasso
That is my final short.
- [46:25]
Tim Seymour
She's saying don't go grass.
- [46:27]
Brian Sullivan
I feel as if you'd like to
- [46:28]
Karen Feineman
talk more about that option expiration with
- [46:30]
Brian Sullivan
anyone, with anyone that would listen. Anyone in earshot, what's your final trade? I see the clock, I know how
- [46:37]
Karen Feineman
much time I have. Delta took a tremendous hit that probably should come to an end.
- [46:41]
Brian Sullivan
Thanks for watching Watching Fast Money Everybody in Tim's tie Mad Money starts now.
- [46:45]
Jennifer
Thanks Bryce all opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer you know what they say.
- [47:21]
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