
Stocks rebound to close out a winning week as investors track a fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire ahead of negotiations in Pakistan. Plus, a closer look at Anthropic’s Mythos and rising fears it could supercharge cyber threats, with major banks and policymakers now on alert. And as new data underscores an affordability crunch for consumers, we count down to bank earnings and the next key catalysts ahead. Fast Money Disclaimer
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Meghan Casella
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Frank Holland
Live for the NASDAQ marketsite in the heart of Times Square. This is fast money and here's what's on tap tonight. A winning week for stocks ahead of what could be a pivotal weekend in the Iran war. Can this momentum continue and how does today's inflation print factor into that debate? And a big warning on AI, the red flag being raised to corporate executives and the implications for cybersecurity across all industries. Plus we count down to earnings from the big banks and Netflix Taiwan semi portion post record revenue. And another blow for Nike. While one analyst says that even at 12 year lows this stock is still not cheap. I am Frank Holland in from Melissa Lee coming to you live from Studio B at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight we got a great group. Steve Grasso, Carter Wirth, Bono and Eisen and Mike Coe. But we start with the markets posting their best week since November. While major indexes were near the flat line today they pulled off massive gains since Monday as investors kept an eye on the fragile two week cease fire between the US and Iran. The the Dow in the S and P both climbing more than 3% and the tech heavy NASDAQ leading all the gains jumping nearly 5% and erasing all of the losses since the beginning of the Iran war. It's now riding an eight day win streak, its longest since August of 2023. Meanwhile, crude oil back below triple digits. WTI settling above $97 today while Brent hovers right around 95 though both still up sharply since the start of the conflict in Iran. Gold also lowered today though, up more than 2% so far this week. All this ahead of planned talks between the US And Iranian negotiators this weekend. And Pakistan are Megan casella, she's in D.C. with more on what we can expect.
Meghan Casella
Meghan Frank, so Iranian negotiators just arrived in Islamabad, Pakistan in the last hour and we know that Vice President J.D. vance is on his way as well. Talks are set to begin around 11pm tonight. That's Eastern Time, about 8am Saturday in Pakistan. And as of right now, it does appear that talks are already on shaky ground. That's after Iran's parliamentary speaker who's leading the talks for that country warned earlier today that two issues that Iran believed to be part of the two week deal have yet to be implemented. That was a cease fire in Lebanon and what he described as the release of Iran's blocked assets. The speaker wrote on social media that these two matters must be fulfilled before negotiations begin. So that suggests that the focus this weekend will need to be on litigating the terms of the cease fire before Iran is even willing to engage with on broader peace talks to end the war. And then as for the US Side, President Trump posted on Truth Social after that post from the speaker saying, quote, the Iranians don't seem to realize they have no cards other than a short term extortion of the world by using international waterways. The only reason he wrote they are alive today is to negotiate. So Frank, he's acknowledging there the leverage that the Iranians have in the Strait of Hormuz while suggesting that the US still has the upper hand, all of it suggesting there's a tough hurdle. These negotiators this weekend, Frank.
Frank Holland
All right, our Meg Casella live from D.C. megan, thank you very much. We're going to trade it. Steve, I want to come over to you because you and I were spending a lot of time before the show talking about oil and the price of gas and what that means for the markets. Let's start off with these negotiations. JD Vance also saying that he doesn't want those Iranian negotiators to play the US Basically. So a lot of concerns about how real the negotiations are, at least from the words the J.D. vance had to say. What are your views of not only these negotiations but the risk premium for oil and the market sentiment? We're going to get some trickles. We're not going to know exactly what's going to happen. We're going to some trickles out of this by Monday. What's your expectation?
Steve Grasso
Could be a big weekend. Right. Sunday's Sunday when the futures open. You're going to see a lot of Wall street people just locked in at their seats on Sunday evening. And when you talk about the risk premium, that war premium, this is what the Fed seems to be looking through, not looking at. And what I mean by that is if it is a transitory escapade that we're dealing with. It's not the right word, but that's the word I'm going to use. If it is a transitory condition that we're looking at with oil. Remember, Frank, before we got into this altercation or war with Iran, we were in an oversupplied state and oil was heading towards probably $45 a barrel. That changed significantly. And do I think there's a war premium where the baseline for oil is higher? I do. I don't. I don't.
Mike Coe
But.
Steve Grasso
But still, when you look at where we came from, where we went and where we settled back in, I think you could have a very productive economy with oil priced at around $70 a barrel, $75 a barrel. So we are all hinging where we were hinging on the Fed and rates, now we're hinging on Iran and the resolution. I think it's going to be an extraordinary weekend and an extraordinary week for the market. We've had a couple a string of up days. Let's see if we can maintain them.
Frank Holland
You know, we had a string of up days for the S and P, seven in a row before today, the Nasdaq, up eight days in a row.
Carter Wirth
Remember, the string of up days is just the equal opposite of had five weeks down in a row. You know how many times that is? Only 24 times in the history of the S and P. Meaning you get bounces after big sell offs, you get big sell offs after huge surges. There's a lot of mean reverting things that go on the market. The question is, which is the primary data points, like the footnotes in a research paper, which is the secondary? Is the sell off primary and the ricochet secondary or is the ricochet the new primary data point? I'm in the former camp. I think the primary data point is the fact that the markets deteriorated substantially. It's been happening for six months. And it's not just Iran. It's things like payrolls, it's things like there's problems with software, there's problems evaluation. And so the ricochet to my eye feels impetuous, impulsive and not likely to Carry through.
Frank Holland
Not likely to carry this. You seem very skeptical. How does the CPI report today?
Steve Grasso
Have you watched the show before?
Frank Holland
Yeah, so I spent CPI plays no
Carter Wirth
parts that, that no one knows what the CPI is going to be. And inflation's hot because of what? Because of oil. But the grains are at multi year lows. It just depends. Is it rents, is it wages? That's all academic. It's great for economists. Has nothing to do with the stock market.
Frank Holland
So nothing with the stock market. Bondo and Eisen, I want to come over to you. Are we sure this has nothing to do with the stock market? I'm looking at the CPI report. Gasoline prices up 19%, electric up four and a half percent. And I think most economists agree this is just the beginning of the shock when it comes to energy prices. It doesn't have to be a big part of this story. It's as we go into the market for next week.
Bonoin Eisen
Listen, I can see both sides of the argument. I think Carter makes a cogent argument. I would say that I would be a little bit hesitant to see that has nothing with the stock, nothing to do with the stock market because it has everything to do with the consumer. So while, you know, PC core, PC rather won't reflect the food prices, the energy prices and all the inputs that the consumer is actually filling on a daily basis, you throw in housing. That's the core of what the main expenditures of a large bulk of the expenditures of your average consumer are. So as it pertains to the ability to invest, the ability to save, we've seen that savings rate draw down from four and a half to four percent now. I mean, I do think it has something to do with that. I see what he's saying. Listen, stocks can continue to rally even when the underlying economic stimulus, if you will, are eroding or kind of plateauing. So, so the two things can both be true at the same time. However, when you stack on unemployment, when you stack on job openings, when you stack on layoffs that we're seeing from tech companies, when you stack on the software pullback that we've seen, I would argue that you are seeing some subtleties in the background that would suggest that there is some trouble ahead. Now, to Steve's point, I do think that it is possible that we continue to see some follow through. I would be cautious there, but impulse impulsivity is part of investing. Like there's a whole, whole swath of resource research rather about irrational exuberance and how people invest emotionally. So all of those things can be true. At the same time, kind of trying to read through the tea leaves, I will say prior to the war, we were in a somewhat stagnant or deteriorating situation. And if you look at the revisions to Q4 GDP, they are telling you that the growth, which has been what we've been hanging our hat on and saying, listen, growth continues to charge ahead or at least be moderately well paced, despite some of the hiccups that we're seeing, we're seeing more and more revisions to those numbers. So I kind of want to proceed with caution here. It seems like the market is getting a bit ahead of itself. Assuming that we're having some resolution, odds of Fed rate cuts seem to be kind of jumping back in, and I really don't see that happening. If you parsed down into the CPI report, you're seeing that some of the data were either in blackout periods when we had a shutdown or even the beginning of the war. Really hasn't even given when the beginning of the war started. Really haven't factored and poured into the data yet. So I don't think we're gonna get a clear picture for another month, two, maybe even three, as it pertains to whether this is a transitory situation or whether or not inflation is retrenching itself in a sticky manner.
Frank Holland
That's just what I was saying. I mean, we're seeing a 19% spike in electricity, but this is just the beginning. So cogent point on your part. Michael, I want to go over to you. What are you expecting for next week? We obviously don't know how these negotiations are going to go over the weekend. You'll be watching. We'll all be watching. But what are your expectations when it comes to sentiment next week?
Mike Coe
Yeah, I mean, I think right now the sentiment is based on the price action anyway. Seems to be pretty optimistic. I'm kind of just talking about data to go along with Carter's idea. I would say under normal circumstances that $70 a barrel crude, which is Steve's point, would be okay for the US Economy. But the problem that we have here is that probably every $10 a barrel in crude is probably something like 10 basis points to global GDP. If you add to that, that you've got, essentially that forces a slowing in the economy, increases inflation. And then one of the things that Bonwin mentioned was the revisions. Well, we also saw revisions in the labor markets as well. And basically we were seeing that a lot of the revisions for job creation. We're slowing ahead of this too. So we really need to see something formative come out of these negotiations or I think we could actually sort of, you know, bounce back down from where we are right now.
Frank Holland
All right. For much more on the markets, going to bring in a very special guest, CNBC contributor Peter Bookvar, chief investment officer, at one point, BFG Wealth Partners. Peter, thank you for joining us.
Peter Bookvar
Thanks, Frank.
Frank Holland
So you're saying the market's trying to figure out is this conflict going to end, Is the Strait of Hormuz going to open up? What we saw WTI have its worst week since all the way back in 2020, obviously pandemic days. Isn't that the market saying that we believe progress is going to be made?
Peter Bookvar
Yes, and I actually think it started at the last day of March when the market bottomed. I think there was signaling outside the White House that they were done with this and they needed to figure out a way out. And that's why I think the market fundamentally has traded better in the month of April. Now, whether that's going to be reality or not, we'll obviously see in the next couple of weeks. I'm optimistic that this will end and the street will reopen in some fashion, but I still think that we're not going back to where we were pre war in terms of commodity prices and the tone of the stock market.
Frank Holland
All right. You seem very confident that we've already seen the bottom back on the last day of March. What signs are you seeing that give you that confidence? And the fact that we're going to have negotiations this weekend. We have a president that is very liberal with his use of social media. And we just also have people over in the Middle east, specifically in Iran, that have some ideology that's completely against the U.S. i mean, there's a lot of different factors here. What's giving you all the confidence?
Peter Bookvar
Well, I'm not confident that that it's the bottom. That it was just a bottom after the.
Frank Holland
Well, you got to where you're going to have another bottom.
Peter Bookvar
No, I'm saying that that that March 30th bottom, I think was triggered by the signaling from the White House. I don't think necessarily that's the bottom because we still have some big picture picture issues. We have the MAG7 stocks that are tremendously lagging the last six months. The MAGS index is down 8%. The S&P 500 is flattish. I think we're losing that leadership of these hyperscalers. We still have private credit issues. And if I'm right that we're in a commodity bull market and that 85 is the new 65 with oil, then I still think we have inflation issues and central bank inflexibility to handle things and that the long end of the yield curve is going to stay relatively elevated.
Frank Holland
All right, so you mentioned the Mag 7, you mentioned Big tech, some cybersecurity concerns based on this new model from Anthropic. How do you see that factoring into investor sentiment and thoughts about some of
Peter Bookvar
these names that I don't know that to me it's going to be specific to software, it's going to be specific to that particular technology. But I don't think it's going to have broad market implications really.
Frank Holland
I mean there's a lot of concerns about the security of the financial system. Software stocks are selling off, cybersecurity stocks are selling off. And it does an impact on the market?
Steve Grasso
Well, no, no.
Peter Bookvar
Well, software has been selling, of course because of the competition from AI, but I don't know necessarily with this particular security issue what the broader implications are. I just don't know yet.
Steve Grasso
Peter, when we look at the CapEx spending and you talked about it with the hyperscalers, that's what's really driving the market. The market's been driven in the past, in the recent past by technology companies. Technology companies have been driven by the CapEx spend. We had our deep seek event last year in April and then we have the Alibaba event last week or this week with an 80% discount on inference chips. If you start to see a crack in that capex spend and you start to see it roll over, I've only known and you've only known in our careers commodity pricing in the chip space. We're not seeing boom bust here, we're only seeing booms. So that's my biggest fear, that's my biggest worry. I'm looking past energy, I'm looking past the Iran conflict, maybe, maybe that's ignorant of me to do so. But I think the bigger question that this market has is can it hold the capex spend? Do you have an opinion on it?
Peter Bookvar
So you're right, the spenders are getting punished because people are seeing the deteriorating cash flow. I mean met his cash flow was was 45 billion free cash flow last year expected to go to less than 10. The receivers of that spend are the ones benefiting, not necessarily Nvidia anymore. Stocks no higher than it was last August. It's down to storage and the memory names which yeah, going back to the 90s, it is the most cyclical part of the stock market. So there's going to be a major bust when these hypers, hyperscalers wake up and say, you know what, maybe we built one too many data centers. Maybe we need to rein this in in terms of the spend that will happen at some point. I don't know when, but we'll get there at some point. It's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when.
Frank Holland
Yeah, I've talked to some investors. They say a lot of these hyperscalers are basically building their church for Easter and there might be a reckoning coming down the line. Peter Book Bar, always great to see you. You have a great weekend.
Peter Bookvar
You too.
Frank Holland
All right, want to bring some of you guys in this conversation. Mike Coe, what do you make of some of the points that Peter Bookvar had just about commodities and commodities being in a bull market and how that impacts the broader equity market?
Mike Coe
Yeah, I mean, we've seen a couple commodities get into into a bull market and a couple companies that are in that space benefit as well, largely because they might have a regional benefit. By way of example, consider that there's a lot of fertilizer that comes out of the Persian Gulf. Companies that operate outside of that area have lower feedstock costs, particularly in natural gas. So one of the things I think this plays into and is likely to persist for a while are companies like cf, you know, where they have, they're going to benefit essentially for some time to come from the lower feedstock costs. So I think that's a sort of a commodity play that is seeing a bullish move, and it's likely to persist for some time because this is a problem that's going to take quite a while to resolve.
Frank Holland
Yes, certainly it will. Look at CF industries today, up over one and a half percent. All right, coming up, Anthropic's latest rollout sparking major security fears in Washington and on Wall Street. Just how big of a threat the latest evolution could be. We're going to talk about that next. Plus, Nike jumping across the finish line today after a very big downgrade. The new risk dog in this company right after this. Do not go anywhere. Fast money's back in two.
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Frank Holland
And welcome back to Fast Money. Cybersecurity stocks getting just crushed today after news administration officials met with bank and tech executives to discuss cyber threats. Posted by Anthropic's Claude Mythos model. For much more on this and what companies can do to prepare, Etai Mayor joins us. He's the VP of Threat Intelligence at the Cato Networks. Etie, thanks for joining us.
Etai Mayor
Thanks for having me again.
Frank Holland
All right, how big of a threat is this potential? We've all read the reports about the Treasury Secretary and the Chair of the Fed, Jerome Powell, meeting with big bank executives to talk to them about this. You're somebody who's actually in this space. How real is this threat?
Etai Mayor
So, first of all, it's not a threat at the moment because it's not released to the general public. What, what is done with this model? It was given to specific vendors which can now test and prepare for it. But it is definitely an evolution of what we know about security. It shortens the time that it takes threat actors potentially to find vulnerabilities in software and then also shortens the time to exploit Them not just a little bit, but completely revamping in how we need to look into software security.
Frank Holland
All right, you said the word threat, and that really kind of made my ears perk up. Because this technology, it has defensive and offensive capabilities. Why are we so focused on the offensive capabilities that we're assuming are to come from hackers? Why can't big banks like the ones that met with the Fed chair and the head of the treasury, why can't they also do something defensive or offensive to stop the hackers from attacking their networks?
Etai Mayor
So not only can they, that's pretty much the only way to fight AI is going to be with utilizing AI to battle IT and to find these vulnerabilities faster, to patch them and to prioritize them. So organizations are definitely looking into how to utilize these as defensive tools. And we've been doing this actually for years now in the industry. The main difference that we're seeing now is that AI is becoming accessible to just about anyone. If you think about it in the past, to do some of these things, you needed a lot of knowledge, a lot of capabilities, a lot of hardware. Now you're pretty much a prompt away from finding all kinds of vulnerabilities. So that is also a major shift. It's not just what can be done, but who can do it now.
Frank Holland
All right, ita, we're very solution focused here on cnbc. I want to ask you a question. So the cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency CISA, a couple of years ago, I believe it was 2023, they created this initiative. It was called Secure by Design. Every company jumped on board. It was basically including cybersecurity in the design of products and also hardware. Is that a possible solution for this issue, to put embed basically cybersecurity from the beginning of development, that that's something
Etai Mayor
we've been talking about for a very long time. You know, moving cybersecurity to this earliest in the process as possible. And I think there's also been a major shift in how cybersecurity is viewed. With all the major breaches that you hear about, all of a sudden, organizations started realizing, hey, cybersecurity is not a showstopper, that, oh, we have to stop development and think about security. It's actually an enabler that allows you to do a lot more, a lot safer. There's also the flip side of it, by the way, and that is how threat actors are now also using, of course, AI and different capabilities and what was once, for example, vulnerabilities that Used to cost hundreds of thousands of dollars in the dark web and they were sold there. Now, almost anybody, what we call the 00 knowledge threat actor, can perform those as well. So there's an economic change also on the threat side.
Steve Grasso
So itai, when you look at the, the what we're showing them up on the screen right now, the cybersecurity stocks, who is doing it so well that they can't be replaced, what's the most valuable strategy? When you look at a Palantir or you look at a CrowdStrike or Palo Alto, is there someone that has a strategy that can't be replicated, can't be replaced? Because as Frank said, it sounds like the, the aggressor and the victim have the same technology right now. And it's a race to see who could put that patch on first or who can get embedded first, who's doing the best job in the space.
Etai Mayor
So of course, in terms of the attackers and defenders, once again, the model we're talking about right now, mythos, has not been released to the general public. So threat actors don't have access to it. It doesn't mean that there aren't any other frontier models or models developed by nation state actors that might be using this in terms of defense. The security industry has adopted AI for a long time and are now working even better in accelerating the use of it in putting it into play in order to stop some of these threats and identify them. I think it will also come down to who is a good platform to do this, because what we're going to end up with is a lot of different point solutions for AI products or AI security. So it'll be putting it all in one place that is manageable and where you can view everything in one place and utilize these different capabilities without reaching, you know, saturation of different products and solutions. So it's going to be a platform play.
Frank Holland
All right, ETA Mayor from Cato Networks, thank you so much for your time, your insight on this one. Have a great day.
Etai Mayor
Thank you.
Frank Holland
All right, bottom I want toss this over to you. Is there a trade here with the idea of this disruption?
Bonoin Eisen
The trade is, as Steve mentioned in cybersecurity. I mean, listen, right now you seem like it seems to be that investors believe that these companies are challenged going forward and might be replaced. I would actually posit that These companies, Fortune 500 companies, down to your small SMB, are likely going to be leaning into cybersecurity solutions. Trying to pick who's going to be the winner may be a Bit tough now because the, the pace of development is so rapid. But in terms of the, the space overall, I would be looking for chances to buy on pullbacks and weakness or outside moves within that cybersecurity complex.
Frank Holland
Mike, I want to come over to you as well. Are you seeing opportunities to invest in some of these names or maybe even the etf? Bonoin just said it's going to be hard to pick the winners, but you can certainly take a broad based approach.
Mike Coe
Yeah, I mean, I think the challenge for some of the cybersecurity companies is that they have to win every single game, whereas the bad actors only have to win once. And there's an untold number of them. I mean, when it comes to cybersecurity breaches, they do occur. I think my bigger concern about them is in the future is simply that the severity and speed of them is going to increase. You know, if I was interested in looking at, you know, a technology play that I think is probably well positioned, I'd actually look to something like Alphabet because number one, they have a lot of expertise in AI and number two, because they are key in terms of cloud. And I kind of want to see those two pieces combined with one another if I'm going to be a customer of one of these businesses and if I'm worried about cybersecurity myself. So I think that, you know, going to try to pick any one of the cybersecurity companies and say they're not going to lose at any point in the future. And we've seen what's happened to cybersecurity companies when they have lost. If there is some kind of a security breach, they tend to pay a steep price. So I think that's probably the way I would go.
Frank Holland
Yeah. To your point, Alphabet, they purchased, I believe it's mandiant just a few years ago to beef up their cybersecurity. All right, there's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.
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Oh no. My coffee.
Frank Holland
Brawny here.
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New brawny 3 ply is now more absorbent. Wow.
Meghan Casella
Got a clean shirt.
Steve Grasso
Do you wear plaid? Ronnie?
Mike Coe
Some of the strongest.
Frank Holland
And welcome back to Fast money. Stocks mixed on Friday to close out a second straight winning week across the board. The Dow dropping 269points, the S and P down just slightly and the Nasdaq up a third of 1%. It was the best week of the year for all three major averages. Taiwan semi shares jumping after the chip maker reported record first quarter revenues of more than $35 billion. That's up 35% from just a year ago. Intel also up today, its eighth straight day of gains, the longest win streak since September 2023. The stocks gained more than 50% during that run. Meanwhile, Nike, well, it's actually sprinting in the opposite direction after Piper Sandler downgraded the sportswear stock to neutral from overweight, noting a lot of saturation in the athleisure market and suggesting the company might need fresh eyes among the leadership. Nike fired its chief innovation officer this afternoon after less than a year at the company. Steve, coming over to you. Your view on might as well pick it up with Nike. Your view on Nike consumer discretionary, by the way, this week, up over 5% but still negative year to date.
Steve Grasso
Yeah, there's been, there's been a consensus view that Nike has no fresh blood. I mean look at who they brought in. Great person has a lot of logistical know how. But it's not new blood that's entering the Nike story. It's not only that that as the problem. The problem is you have a lot of non public brands that are coming on. You have a lot of public brands that are coming on. Remember when Nike ran the whole segment, they ran it because they outspent everyone on on ad dollars and they had a digital platform. Now anyone has a social platform. Any shoe company can just be a startup and gain the attention of the public. So you have like an on cloud that is, that is killing it. They're up in revenue or in sales, they're up 30%. Nike's down. Lulu is actually coming back. That's a turnaround story. I don't see the end for Nike within eye shot right now. They need a lot that they really don't have a view on right now.
Frank Holland
All right, Carter, I want to come over to you. He hit on Nike. Let's talk about the chip trade. We just mentioned Taiwan, semi and Intel. Steve was actually hitting on it. It is a cyclical sector and so far we haven't seen a down cycle. We've seen only see an upcycle.
Mike Coe
Yeah.
Carter Wirth
I mean it is the single best thing in the market. Right. I mean it's the only area of the market that's right now making new highs except for the Dow Jones transports. But most sectors are not and tech is certainly not. But semis seem to be the one area where people continue to believe right or wrong, that the growth is uninterrupted. As to its cyclicality, it is certainly less cyclical than it was. Right. I mean there was no chip in your, in your refrigerator 20 years ago and there was no chip in your. There are chips everywhere. Right. So it's a bigger part of the picture now, but still cyclical and you know all of the stuff that is studied book to Bill and all the things that go on, it still will have its day. It's it had a major setback during the sell off of the prior six weeks before this bounce and that's a part of it. I would reduce or trim exposure to it.
Frank Holland
To your point, I think the SMH ETF hitting an all time high today. Earlier today. All right, coming up, breaking down big bank earnings ahead of a monster week for the financials where our next guest thinks buybacks can take center stage. Next,
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Frank Holland
We're back right after this. All right, welcome back to Fast Money. All eyes on the bank set to kick off Q1 earnings season next week. Goldman Sachs starting things off on Monday. The stocks have had a solid week ahead of those reports. Citigroup trading near levels last seen back in 2008. But will the next week's results keep all this momentum going? Let's bring in Breen Capital's director of research, Chris Maranak. Chris, thank you for joining us.
Chris Maranak
Thank you, Frank. Good to be here.
Frank Holland
All right, let's start off with this. Financial's been under a bit of pressure so far this year. What are your expectations for these earnings reports? What things would be looking at? It's always just we talk about banks when we're talking about the spread between deposits and loans. What are the other stories to follow?
Chris Maranak
Well, I think it was a very strong quarter from trading. Certainly the volatility in March was huge and I think will contribute positively to earnings. I think you may see some investment banking deals that got pushed into the second quarter, but second quarter is typically a very strong period. Anyways, I think the guide for the next few quarters will still be positive. The banks are enjoying the interest rate change that occurred during the month of March. I actually think that's more of a positive low growth. Deposit growth has been solid. We've seen a lot of liquidity in the system and we think banks are still generating a lot of earnings in general from spread businesses, keeping costs under control. And honestly the buybacks are still going to be a big piece of the puzzle this year.
Frank Holland
All right, so I know you're saying you're forecasting quite a bit of buybacks. Before we get to more on your buyback thesis, I want to talk to you about private credit and the loans to non depository financial institutions is something that you're watching. I was just on the Fed website looking up some data. Those loans up more than 25% year over year and a lot of different banks have different levels of exposure. Talk to us, is that going to be a major theme when it comes to these earnings reports or at least the earnings calls from analysts?
Chris Maranak
Absolutely. I think what the banks have to do is give greater transparency into NDFI reserves and what exactly they've got set aside for losses. And even if the loss expectations are low, I think we need to know that there's been very little disclosure about reserves. Only three banks have done that. I think we'll see a lot more. I feel that that percentage growth is going to continue to be the leading indicator for the industry's growth. Whether we like it or not. NDFI is still a big percentage of what the banks are doing, particularly among the largest banks getting more information about where they're doing business with REITs and insurance companies which are perceived to have less risk where it's going, into private equity where it's not going, which sometimes is the Mortgage Finance Channel which has limited risk. All of that detail matters. But I think the reserve build is really what investors don't know today and they need to find more detail.
Steve Grasso
Chris, when I, when I look at it, net Interest margin, net interest income. I look at Wells Fargo and Wells Fargo and then Bank America seem like the top two candidates to impress us with net interest income. Everyone was focused on net interest margin for a while there. And when you look at JP Morgan, JP Morgan does everything well. But when you look at a Citigroup or a Wells Fargo, they're the comeback banks. Which one do you think has the best opportunity for net interest income to surprise to the upside? Or am I looking at it the wrong way?
Chris Maranak
No, I think you're correct. I think that NII pays the bills and that matters more than margin. I think Wells would be my candidate that can surprise. I think that the balance sheet is starting to grow. That's going to help. I also think to some extent Wells tends to be more asset sensitive. So the way that we're not cutting interest rates at the Fed and we can see more turnover of loans being repurposed at higher yields and I do think pricing is actually improving as we are ending the quarter beginning April. That's going to be positive for the forward look for these companies from the spread perspective.
Carter Wirth
Chris, where are you on Citi? Of course, it's the standout of the big four. Bank of America, Wells Fargo, of course, JP Morgan, Citi's the one making new all time highs. Do you think that's sustainable? It's always been the laggard. Or do you think something is changing?
Chris Maranak
Well, it's interesting. It trades at exactly the same multiple as bank of America today, which is ironic because it's been a long time coming for that. I think that Jane still has a lot more potential to get cost improvements, find new opportunities for revenue. I think there's a lot of optimism on the company and I suspect it will probably stay intact.
Frank Holland
All right, Chris Marinette, great to have you on. Thank you very much. Look ahead to big banks reporting next week. Mike, want to come over to you. What do you make of what Mike had to say, Chris? Excuse me? What Chris had to say about buybacks and also the questions about those loans to non depository financial institutions.
Mike Coe
Yeah, I mean, if you take a look at most of the money center banks, it looks like most of them are in runs that are fairly well intact. That's really probably a better question for Carter than it is for me. I will say that xlf, which is the ETF that tracks the financials broadly going into earnings and we've got some big ones coming up next week, it actually traded much more bullish flow today than it does on average calls outpacing puts 145,000 calls versus 110,000 puts. Usually it's the other way around. And the reason it's the other way around is very frequently ETFs like this are used to hedge. We saw a big purchase for example of 43,000 of the 51 strike calls that expire at the end of the next week, which is basically a 1% risk that XLF could rally. And if it's going to rally, it's going to rally on its biggest constituents which are those that are going to be reporting.
Frank Holland
Bottom I want to come over to you. A lot of volatility during this quarter. So when you're looking at these banks that are reporting, are you more focused on upside opportunity for the banks that have big trading franchises or are you looking more at the consumer side of their businesses
Bonoin Eisen
in terms of sensitivity? Well, in terms of a longer term investment and where what will give me comfort it's it is going to be a money center bank that also has robust trading capabilities as well as M and A mean you're diversifying between fees, trading income. So that kind of gives me a little bit more comfort in terms of what really I will be focused on. Much like Chris said, I think this NDFI exposure or at least disclosure is going to be critical. Even if I, I'm not one to to say that the, the end of times are coming. But I do think that that is what the market seems to have a pulse on. That seems to be the pain point that people are concerned about. So getting a better grasp on what exactly is on the books. I mean if you look at loan growth, I believe it's 47, 50% of new loan growth are NDFI. So I think people are really going to want to dig into that and understand where those loans are being, are being made.
Frank Holland
All right, we're going to get some answers next week. Coming up, inflation soaring in March as the Iran war drives up energy prices crisis how that's impacting consumers and the trade offs that they're being forced to make. Coming up right after this.
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Frank Holland
And welcome back to FAST money. Consumer prices they spiked in March as the Iran war drove up energy prices. And an exclusive CNBC survey finds Americans they're feeling especially strapped and are making some trade offs to navigate that crunch. CNBC Sharon Epperson joins us right here on set with much more on this affordability survey. Sharon, would you find out?
Sharon Epperson
Well, what we found out is what you've just said. Inflation surged as the Iran war pushed up gasoline and other prices. The consumer price index rose 3.3% year over year according to government data, led by a nearly 19% jump in gasoline prices which have spiked even more during the war. Now as a result of rising prices, this new CNBC poll finds many Americans are facing and affordability crunch that's forcing them to make some significant financial trade offs. In our exclusive survey, half of Americans polled said they are more stressed financially than a year ago. 70% said they're just managing, struggling or falling behind. And 54% are pessimistic about the US economy as they face rising prices for groceries and transportation. Now most of those polled said they've stuck, stopped buying or they're cutting back on dining out and delivery apps, brand name and premium groceries as well as clothing. And to make ends meet, many admitted they are dipping into savings to cover daily expenses using a credit card for groceries and household essentials and taking on extra work, a side hustle or a second job to increase their income. CNBC's poll of nearly 3,500 adults in the US was conducted by SurveyMonkey from March 23rd to 25th, about one month after the Iran war started. Most economists say to expect further increases in gas prices due to the war. And given the spike that we've seen in diesel fuel, they say it's only a matter of time before that affects food prices too, increasing not only the cost of living, but the cost of survival for many Americans. For strategies on managing your money in this affordability crunch, use the QR code on the screen to to sign up for my money one on one newsletter or go to cnbc.com money 101. A lot of readers are telling me, you know, that they, they're facing this, Frank, and they need help and they're trying to figure out what strategies are going to be best just so they can survive.
Frank Holland
Yeah, I mean, it makes sense. You want to cut back on eating out and maybe higher end groceries. Did people give you any insight on the summer? Do they plan to cut back on vacations or travel?
Sharon Epperson
Well, right now they're getting those tax refund checks. They're using that money to offset the gas prices they're not thinking about and planning ahead, which you should be doing if you want to travel this summer to do it now to lock in prices before they go up even higher. But they're not really able to have that kind of discretionary income. A lot of people. So they're kind of just trying to manage the day to day.
Frank Holland
Yeah, a lot of questions about what this is going to mean for the consumer if this conflict continues. Obviously we're in a two week cease fire right now. But looking at gas prices still elevated. Anybody that drives here, I think we all drive. You know how expensive it is. But that's why we got to read the Money 101 newsletter.
Sharon Epperson
That's why you got to run.
Steve Grasso
Signed up. Did you sign up yet?
Frank Holland
I'm absolutely signed up.
Sharon Epperson
Thank you very much.
Frank Holland
Thank you very much.
Sharon Epperson
Good to be here. Good to be here.
Frank Holland
All right. Coming up on Fast Money, it's not just the big banks. Netflix also reporting earnings next week. We're going to lay out an options trade on the action next. More fast coming up in two. And welcome back to Fast money. Netflix joining the big banks on the earnings marquee next week. And with Cohen Carter on the desk tonight, we thought it'd be a Perfect time for some good old fashioned options action. Carter Wirth is at the Telestrator with all the technicals. Carter, take it away.
Carter Wirth
You bet. Let's get right to it. Four charts, always the same time frame. Let's annotate them. This is one of the risks here that we are setting up for that, which would of course be that if and as resolved. Let's look at the next chart, same time frame again. And let's put in the moving average. What we know is that in an uptrend, when you come down to your moving average, you respond to it and bounce. Respond to it and bounce. Respond to it and bounce. Respond to it and bounce. But once you're underneath it and you rally to it, you've rallied to a difficult level. And that is the risk that you hit your head there. Let's go to the next one. What we have is now with very clear circles. And so again, I'm making the case that just as you in an uptrend bounce off a rising moving average, once you're in a downtrend, you have the risk that it hits its head here. And then finally, last chart, same time frame again. We have already bounced some 37%. We've gone right back to a 50% retracement level. That's a tough spot. I want to fade this going into earnings.
Frank Holland
All right, Carter laid out the technicals. Mike, I want to come over to you. What's the trade here?
Mike Coe
Yeah, I mean, I like the fundamental story, obviously the best in the streaming space and they're trading probably 26, 27 times next year's earnings with probably a 21% adjusted EPS growth rate. But when you combine the things that Carter just talked about with of course, the concerns that we have about the negotiations ongoing and if the markets roll over, it's going to take this one with it. And the fact that the stock actually traded lower after the last three earnings results. Options actually look cheap right now, implying about a 6% move going into the print. I think if you own it, you can hedge it. I was looking to the May month ending 190 strike put spread. That would cost about $2.75 at the current stock price. You're risking about 2.5% of the stock price if you want to make either a bearish bet or if you want to hedge your longs. So I think this is a very cost effective way to either play for the downside move or to hedge against a bad one.
Frank Holland
All right, thank you so much, Carter and Mike. Steve, I'M going to give you one more word on this.
Steve Grasso
Yeah. So Netflix, you know, the whole idea that Netflix got to the top in streaming, they did it on their own. So that whole deal with Warner Brothers where they missed it was a blessing in disguise. Stock bottomed out, starts to run a little bit higher here. It actually is the cheapest streaming play that you can buy on an hourly basis. I think that when you match it up again against its opponents, this is the one that you stick with. This is the leader in the group. I like Carter's technicals on the name, but I think it still could have a little more room to the upside
Frank Holland
by on an hourly basis. What do you mean?
Steve Grasso
Yeah, so if you compare it, like if you go to. How much do you charge per month to watch it? How many streaming hours are watched? If you go to a movie, how much does a movie cost? My Lord. Right. So the difference is. Is huge.
Frank Holland
All right, we're going to leave it there. Coming up next, we have your final trades. You don't want to miss. Is time for final trades. Let's go around the horn. Mike, you're up first.
Mike Coe
Yeah. Cost conscious consumers eat out less and they look for less expensive gas and freeze in bulk instead. And that benefits, benefits membership scores like BJ's wholesale following.
Bonoin Eisen
Despite recent volatility, ACWI has failed to outperform US domestic. I would fade ACWI buy US domestic.
Carter Wirth
Carter sell XLE, sell oil.
Frank Holland
Steve.
Steve Grasso
Last one, SL Green. The dislocation between the fundamentals and the stock price are very wide.
Frank Holland
All right, thank you for watching Fast Money Mad Money. It is starting right now.
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CNBC “Fast Money” Podcast Summary
Episode: “Stocks Wrap Winning Week As Investors Eye Ceasefire… And A New AI Cyber Threat”
Original Air Date: April 10, 2026
Host: Frank Holland (in for Melissa Lee)
Panel: Steve Grasso, Carter Worth, Bonoan Eisen, Mike Coe
Guests: Meghan Casella, Peter Bookvar, Etai Mayor, Chris Maranak, Sharon Epperson
This edition of CNBC’s “Fast Money” unpacks a rollercoaster week for the stock market as investors digest an uncertain ceasefire in the Iran war, a hot inflation report, a possible game-changing AI cybersecurity threat, and looming earnings from major banks and tech giants. The discussion weaves through geopolitics, market sentiment, commodity cycles, earnings outlooks, and the intensifying arms race in AI security—delivering actionable insight for investors navigating volatile times.
[01:02–02:35, 05:12–09:47]
Market Recap:
Ceasefire Talks—Geopolitical Risk:
Oil & Market Sentiment:
Market Dynamics:
[06:51–09:47, 39:41–42:50]
CPI Data:
Panel Reactions:
CNBC’s Affordability Survey
Summer Outlook:
[11:00–15:59]
Commodity Supercycle?
Tech Weakness & CapEx:
Commodity Stock Play (15:46):
[19:01–25:24]
AI Models & Cybersecurity:
Industry Solutions:
Investment Takeaways:
[28:41–37:32]
Nike Downgrade:
Semiconductors:
Big Bank Earnings:
Panel on Bank Exposure:
[43:22–46:12]
Technical Take:
Options/Hedging Play:
Fundamental View:
[46:30–46:56]
The episode blends experienced trader skepticism (“mean-reversion,” “impetuous”) with urgency about real-world risks (“war premium,” “inflation’s ripple through consumers”), while maintaining CNBC’s classic emphasis on actionable strategies. Panelists are candid, sometimes wry, and always focus on what matters most to investors in turbulent times.