CNBC Fast Money: Target Drops On Succession Plans… And Details From The Fed Minutes

Date: August 20, 2025
Host: Brian Sullivan (in for Melissa Lee)
Panel: Julie Biel, Steve Grasso, Karen Finerman, Guy Adami
Field Reporting: Courtney Reagan, Julia Boorstin
Guest Analyst: Dan Ives (Wedbush Securities), Mike Schumacher (Wells Fargo)

Brief Overview

This episode tackles a day of high-impact retail and tech news, focusing on Target's CEO succession and steep stock drop, the ongoing volatility and fundamentals of leading AI stock Palantir, an unusual Amazon-Hertz tie-up in used car sales, the new ESPN streaming bundle’s market impact, and fresh Federal Reserve minutes revealing a sharply divided central bank with key implications for interest rate cuts, inflation, and the broader market.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Target’s CEO Change and Stock Slump

• Target shares fell as much as 11% intraday (closing -6%) after announcing Michael Fiddelke, an internal candidate, as the new CEO.

  • Panel reactions:
    • Guy Adami: (03:28) “The market is saying they wanted an out, they wanted something new, they didn’t want more of the same... It’s not going to get it done internally.”
    • Karen Finerman: (04:55) Observed Target’s board boasts big names but lacks “someone with real retail experience.”
    • Steve Grasso: (05:18) "When you promote the old, you get nothing new... You need new blood in this type of situation."
    • Julie Biel: (07:01) "Target’s differentiation was delighting people with cushions and lamps and things they absolutely do not need... Until you inject more enthusiasm for merchandise, you’ll have a hard time convincing shoppers."
  • Consumer Confidence Problem:
    • Adami: (08:34) “If you’re in the middle in the world of retail, you’re absolutely nowhere.”
    • 40% of Target workers lack confidence in the company’s future (09:19).
  • Valuation Discussion:
    • Target trading at "13 times forward earnings" and a 4.6% dividend, but panelists labeled it potentially a "value trap" given sustained performance issues.

• Courtney Reagan’s Insider Insights (10:52):

  • Michael Fiddelke, the incoming CEO, is a Target lifer: “Started as an intern... He's worked in human resources, knows a lot about this company.” (11:07)
  • He led the "enterprise acceleration office," essentially a turnaround ‘trial run’ in recent quarters.
  • Panel remains skeptical on whether he can spark meaningful change: “I guess we’ve got to give him a chance, right?” (13:38)

• Comparisons to Walmart and Others:

  • (14:24) Debate over whether Walmart’s “insider CEO” success can or can’t translate for Target.
  • Julie Biel: “It’s what the brand stands for—[Target] lost its way... That’s what that 40% of employees... is about.” (15:41)
  • Adami: “Just because a retail name’s down 60% doesn’t guarantee a recovery—could be a value trap like Sears or Walgreens.” (16:04)

Notable Quote

• Steve Grasso (05:18): “You need new blood in this type of situation... You get nothing new when you promote the old.”

Off-price Retail: TJX’s Strength, Target’s Contrast

• TJX (TJ Maxx parent) posts strong quarter, hits all-time high:
  • Karen Finerman: “There’s a lot to like here. The only thing not to like is that it’s expensive but it deserves to be.” (16:44)
  • Panel notes TJX excels at inventory management and capitalizing on overorders—supporting robust margins.
  • Grasso: (18:08) “Market pays up for retail operators getting it right—won’t for those like Target.”

Palantir & AI: Bull/Bear Debate and AI Cycle

• Palantir falls for a 6th day, but remains top S&P 500 performer YTD.
  • Dan Ives (Wedbush): “This is going to be a trillion-dollar market cap company... the poster child of the AI revolution.” (22:26, 23:04)
    • Expects $12bn-$20bn annual revenues in 3-4 years.
  • Panel Skepticism:
    • Julie Biel: “I continue to believe there’s no asset so good price doesn’t matter... [Palantir trading at] 100 times sales, 200 times forward EPS... The expectations here are incredibly lofty.” (27:12)
• Government contracts as a “tailwind”—but commercial side must deliver for future growth.
• AI’s “party” is ‘at 10:15pm, goes ‘til 4am’—still early innings for enterprise adoption (25:24).

Notable Quote

• Dan Ives (23:04): “They are the poster child of the AI revolution... not the time to run for the hills.”

Amazon & Hertz Selling Used Cars

• Hertz (+6%) and Amazon partnership moves used car sales online; Carvana stock drops.
  • Karen Finerman: “You can see why Carvana would be afraid to have Amazon and anybody partner.” (30:27)
  • Amazon improves discoverability and financing compared to Hertz’s old process.
  • Guy Adami: (31:45) “I think the selloff in Carvana will probably be somewhat short-lived... this doesn’t [eat] importantly into Carvana’s core business.”

Federal Reserve: Divided Over Rates, Inflation, & Tariffs

• Fed minutes reveal split between concerns on inflation (rise from tariffs) and jobs (potential cuts):
  • First dual Fed governor dissents in 30 years.
  • Mike Schumacher (Wells Fargo): (34:12) “More committee members are concerned about inflation and unemployment… [Tariffs] is very tough to assess in the developed world... makes it a really tough call.”
  • On the September meeting: “The market’s going to say, ‘now we have an easing cycle’… Bonds will run, equities do well.” (35:17)
• Debate on the “neutral rate,” with uncertainty about where policy is truly tight or loose.
  • Schumacher: “Biggest challenge is what is neutral... If you knew with absolute certainty it was 3%, you’d say ‘great’... But if it could be 2.75, could be 3.5. You can’t go as quickly.” (38:44)
  • Julie Biel: “We’ve gotten used to 0% interest rates... They’re not realistic, and it’s going to take time to unwind that expectation from all markets.” (39:08)
  • Guy Adami: (40:31) “Central bankers can be at the top of the list of villains of the 21st century... Jerome Powell’s done a good job last 6-9 months, but the Fed only controls the front end—they don’t control anything else.”

Notable Quote

• Mike Schumacher (35:17): “You can’t put the genie back in the bottle… The Fed may only do one cut but that’s not the initial market move—it’s a big rally.”

ESPN/Disney’s Streaming Bundle Rollout

• ESPN’s new unlimited streaming service debuts at $30/month—bundled with Disney+ and Hulu, or with Fox/other sports.
  • Julia Boorstin: “Disney’s trying to supercharge its streaming bundle to make subscribers as loyal as cable subscribers were for decades… Will ESPN streaming accelerate cord-cutting? Not really, given the price and how many separate subscriptions you’d still need.” (41:46)
  • Steve Grasso: “With the bundle, ultimately we’ll pay more than we did for cable... This chart tells me Disney can go higher.” (43:08)
  • Anticipation for CEO Bob Iger’s interview on CNBC the next morning.

Breaking News: Political Pressure at the Fed

• Controversy over Fed Governor Lisa Cook’s housing:
  • Allegations she claimed two homes as primary residences.
  • Cook’s response: “I have no intention of being bullied to step down... I intend to take any questions about my financial history seriously...” (45:04)
  • Panel notes this could shift the FOMC’s hawk/dove balance if Cook is removed and replaced.

Final Trades Roundtable

• Julie Biel: “Ollie’s—a great place for value, following TJX’s strong results.” (46:38)
• Steve Grasso: Baidu—potential entry point. (46:44)
• Karen Finerman: Meta—recent pullback, now at 27x earnings. (46:54)
• Guy Adami: GDX (Gold Miners ETF), plus a birthday note for Tim Seymour’s father. (47:00)

Memorable Quotes & Timestamps

• “You need new blood in this type of situation... You get nothing new when you promote the old.”
  — Steve Grasso (05:18)

• “I continue to believe there’s no asset so good price doesn’t matter... 100 times sales, 200 times forward EPS.”
  — Julie Biel (27:12)

• “More committee members are concerned about inflation and unemployment… [Tariffs] is very tough to assess in the developed world... makes it a really tough call.”
  — Mike Schumacher (34:12)

Important Timestamps

• Target CEO Change Discussion: 02:40–16:38
• TJX Strong Earnings/Off-price Retail: 16:44–18:43
• Palantir Pullback & Dan Ives Interview: 21:35–27:54
• Amazon-Hertz Car Sales Announcement: 29:41–32:00
• Fed Minutes and Macro Market Reaction: 33:49–41:05
• Disney/ESPN Streaming Bundle Launch: 41:13–43:08
• Lisa Cook/Fed Controversy: 43:13–45:59
• Final Trades: 46:38–47:28

Overall Tone & Takeaways

• Candid, skeptical, and punchy—panelists challenge each others’ retail and tech outlooks, push on the folly of “cheap” stocks as value traps, and maintain skepticism about Fed policy while recognizing the market’s behavioral patterns.
• Emphasis on actionability: Analysts and traders dissect the immediate and long-term investment implications, not just the headlines.
• Consumer sentiment and leadership credibility dominate the discourse on retail, while high conviction/valuation tension drives the tech and AI segment.
• Uncertainty over macroeconomic direction is the backdrop: Will the Fed pivot? How will markets digest a possible rate-cut cycle?

For listeners seeking actionable insight:

• Target: Avoid due to lack of transformational change and eroded brand/consumer loyalty.
• TJX: Solid performer, but priced for perfection.
• Palantir: Early innings for AI, opportunity in pullbacks but watch lofty multiples.
• Amazon/Hertz: Interesting experiment, minimal immediate sector impact.
• Fed: Expect volatility around policy signals; cycles not easily managed by words alone.
• ESPN/Disney bundle: New price reality for sports—potential positive for Disney, cord-cutting is a slow process.

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