CNBC Fast Money — Podcast Summary

Episode: Target Drops On Succession Plans… And Details From The Fed Minutes
Date: August 21, 2025
Host: Brian Sullivan (in for Melissa Lee)
Guests/Panel: Tim Seymour, Karen Feiderman, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami
Special Guests: Steve Liesman, Jens Nordvig, Bill Simon, Terry Duffy, Julia Boorstin, Kate Rogers

Episode Overview

This episode centers on pivotal market concerns as investors await Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, analyze implications from the most recent Fed minutes, and react to earnings surprises and leadership shifts at major retailers including Walmart and Target. The roundtable also explores currency trends, sports media deals, prediction markets, and consumer-centric moves by legacy brands.

Key Segments & Insights

1. Market Overview & Fed Rate Cut Expectations

[02:25–14:27]

• Fifth straight losing day for the S&P, the longest since January, with markets waiting anxiously for cues from the Fed and Powell’s Jackson Hole address.
• Treasury yields are ticking higher; the odds of a September Fed rate cut have dropped rapidly in the past 24 hours, influenced by hawkish comments from Fed regional presidents.
• Steve Liesman live from Jackson Hole details how the futures market has shifted from nearly 100% certainty of a rate cut down to 70–73%.
  • “You might have blinked because futures markets now showing not 80 but a 70% chance of a rate cut in September and a 30% probability of no change. That’s a high for this contract and it’s been happening throughout the day.” — Steve Liesman [03:41]

Notable Discussion Points

• Some Fed officials (Jeff Smith, Beth Hammock) remain firmly concerned about inflation:
  • “We really have to have very definitive data to be moving that policy right now.” — Jeff Smith, paraphrased by Liesman.
• Powell is likely to deliver a non-committal message, buying time for further data before the September meeting.
• Lisa Cook controversy: DOJ is investigating mortgage fraud allegations (pre-dating her time as Fed governor); panel clarifies only the President can remove a Fed governor and only for “cause.”

Market Panel Reaction

• “The short answer is yes, absolutely the market will be disappointed if they get anything less than, I think the market really cares about a dovish Jerome Powell more than anything.” — Guy Adami [14:00]
• Panel expects Powell to remain at least neutral, with Tim Seymour adding he shouldn’t cut rates based on current data.

2. Fed Minutes & Macro Jitters

[14:27–20:33]

• The panel reviews Fed minutes revealing broad concerns: sticky inflation, employment, and potential impact of AI on jobs—pointing to both upside and downside risk for rates and markets.
• Dan Nathan notes assets prices as another Fed worry.
• Options market is pricing only a modest move between now and the Fed meeting, signaling possible investor complacency:
  • “If you’re looking at the markets right here and you want to get long, you want long exposure, it’s one and a half percent between now and September.” — Dan Nathan [18:06]

3. Currency Moves & Global Flows

Interview: Jens Nordvig, Exante Data
[20:33–29:00]

• Massive capital allocation shift out of US dollar assets into international portfolios, particularly European equities, since March.

• The US dollar’s fortunes could hinge on upcoming Fed moves and whether the focus remains on inflation or unemployment.

• Tariff shocks due to resume by October, likely boosting inflation and complicating the Fed’s path.

  • “We’re going to have another tariff shock where actually tariffs are going up again. So by October that’s when that is going to be really feeding in.” — Jens Nordvig [26:39]

• US Treasury wants a weaker dollar but has only “verbal intervention”:

  • “It’s kind of more down to verbal interventions… eventually it’s going to be up to the cycle, like what is the cyclical state of the US relative to the rest of the world?” — Jens Nordvig [28:20]

4. Retail Focus: Walmart & Target

Interview: Bill Simon, former Walmart US CEO
[29:15–40:32]

• Walmart:

  • Shares drop ~5%, despite beating on most fronts and raising guidance. The quarter was strong across the board—tariffs and a large one-time insurance charge had little effect on real prospects.
  • “If you liked them yesterday, I don’t know why you don’t love them today…” — Bill Simon [31:07]
  • Two-thirds of Walmart’s products are domestic, largely insulates from tariffs.

• Target:

  • Succession plan brings in an internal candidate; market interprets this as a sign of limited change.
  • Tariffs and a smaller food segment make Target more vulnerable; margins are weakening.
  • “It’s awful hard to change direction when you were probably the guy that helped get you down that road in the first place…” — Bill Simon [34:19]

• Walmart’s performance continues to outshine Target on margin and sales leverage; both are staples in today’s volatile market, though underperforming recently.

5. Media Deals & Brand Moves

MLB Streaming Rights, Cracker Barrel, Starbucks Initiatives
[40:32–58:15]

• MLB streaming: NBCUniversal and MLB are near a $600M deal; Netflix close to a separate Home Run Derby agreement. ESPN also expands digital baseball offerings.

  • “This is kind of interesting for the Netflix story. The Home Run Derby… as a baseball purist, I find it to be a little silly. Ultimately though, it’s an event. It’s not necessarily sports.” — Tim Seymour [44:30]

• Cracker Barrel: Shares plunge 7% after a logo change that removed the iconic “guy and barrel” illustration, prompting mixed, mostly negative panel reactions.

• Starbucks: Rolls out coconut-based cold beverages aimed at Gen Z and millennials.

  • “This also builds on the cold foam platform which has become one of the company’s most popular drink modifiers.” — Kate Rogers [55:10]
  • The drinks are positioned as health & wellness offerings.

6. Prediction Markets & Financial Innovation

Interview: Terry Duffy, CME Group CEO
[50:10–56:00]

• CME ties up with FanDuel:

  • Launching new “yes/no” prediction contracts (as low as $1) on market events—i.e., S&P price moves, economic releases.
  • “For us to have a partner like FanDuel and be able to have 14 million accounts on day one, to have the ability to participate in CME’s markets at their comfort level is really important…” — Terry Duffy [50:37]
  • Fully-funded, no-margins, “trade what you can afford to lose.”
  • Retail is a growing focus, but institutional clients remain key.

• Liquidity spike: Today’s swing in rate-cut probabilities (from 87% to 70%) nearly doubled CME’s average daily Fed funds futures volume.

7. Healthcare Movers — GLP-1 Drugs

[56:16–57:18]

• Weight loss drug names (Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly) surge after Serena Williams reveals use of GLP-1’s post-pregnancy.
  • Karen Feinerman: “I’m long both Novo and Lilly. Pharma’s been tough though more generally until recently.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Fed’s dilemma:
  “He’s got a split in his committee, a really definitive split here out in public…” — Steve Liesman [08:19]

• On Walmart’s insurance impact:
  “It sounds like it was one of those type of adjustments... it’s a one-time adjustment. It’s not a systemic issue.” — Bill Simon [32:40]

• On Target’s CEO succession:
  “It’s awful hard to change direction when you were probably the guy that helped get you down that road...” — Bill Simon [34:19]

• On CME’s move into prediction markets: “I’m not becoming a casino. Contrary to popular opinion, I didn’t buy a casino. These are markets that will be offered to the general public and we think is massively exciting...” — Terry Duffy [51:10]

• On the unusual dollar move in Q2:
  “This year has been extraordinary… a big asset allocation shift. From what to what? Away from dollars in international portfolios.” — Jens Nordvig [21:45]

Segment Timestamps

• Opening & Market Recap: 00:00–03:40
• Steve Liesman, Jackson Hole & Powell Preview: 03:40–14:27
• Panel: Rate Cuts & Market Focus: 14:27–20:33
• Jens Nordvig Interview (Currencies/Flows): 20:33–29:00
• Walmart Earnings, Bill Simon Interview: 29:15–40:32
• Panel: Retail (Target, Walmart): 40:33–42:33
• MLB Media Rights, Cracker Barrel Logo: 42:35–49:15
• CME-FanDuel Partnership, Terry Duffy Interview: 50:10–56:00
• Pharma/Healthcare Movers, GLP-1 News: 56:16–57:18
• Starbucks New Coconut Drinks, Kate Rogers: 57:21–58:15
• Final Trades & Wrap: 58:16–end

Final Snaps (Panel’s Closing Trades)

• Tim Seymour: Buy Target
• Karen Feiderman: Cracker Barrel (could bounce if logo reverts)
• Dan Nathan: KWEB ETF (Chinese Internet, breakout play)
• Guy Adami: Walmart if Starbucks “turns the corner”

Episode Tone & Takeaways

The panel delivers a punchy, fast-moving, trader-focused discussion. Fed uncertainty and rate cut probability dominate investor attention, but there's robust debate about how much is “priced in.” The conversations are peppered with market wisdom, retail insight, and humor (from logo changes to final trades). For investors and market-watchers, it’s an episode rich with actionable commentary and “watch these signals” insight—especially ahead of a pivotal Fed speech.

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