Tariff Headlines Weigh On Markets… And A Private Credit Port In The Storm? 4/8/25

Summary

CNBC's "Fast Money" Podcast Summary
Episode: Tariff Headlines Weigh On Markets… And A Private Credit Port In The Storm?
Release Date: April 8, 2025
Host: Sarah Eisen
Location: NASDAQ Studio B, Times Square, New York City

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1. Market Overview

The episode opens with Sarah Eisen providing a comprehensive snapshot of the turbulent market conditions. The S&P 500 experienced a dramatic decline, plunging over 12% since President Trump's announcement of new tariffs the previous Wednesday—marking the worst four-day loss since the 2008 financial crisis. Major indices reflected widespread volatility:

• S&P 500: Closed in the red, down 12% since tariff announcements.
• Nasdaq: Dropped over 2% despite an initial 4.5% gain.
• Dow Jones: Soared over 1,400 points during the day but ended down more than 300 points.
• Apple: Saw a fourth consecutive daily decline, losing over 20% and shedding more than $770 billion in market cap.

Quote:
[00:32] Sarah Eisen: "The S&P jumping more than 4% in early trading but steadily giving back those gains... closing solidly in the red."

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2. Tariff Policies and Implications

Discussions centered on the administration's aggressive tariff strategy, particularly targeting China with potential increases up to 104%. This move has sparked debates among panelists regarding its effectiveness and long-term impact.

• Tim Seymour highlighted the economic rationale:
  [02:36] "Melting ice cube in a way because you're taking in the revenues as the manufacturing facilities are built in the US."

• Dan Nathan emphasized the administration's view of a recession as a policy outcome:
  [07:02] "This is an administration that seems to have indicated that recession is a policy potential or that essentially it is policy."

• Megan Casella reported on U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer's testimony, noting the focus on reducing the trade deficit and the administration's willingness to negotiate deals on a country-by-country basis, with China being a significant outlier:
  [03:09] "He said there's no particular timeline here... They are not going to solve overnight."

Quote:
[04:02] Julie Beal: "We're trying to remedy a situation that's persisted for many years."

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3. Bond Market Analysis

The bond market exhibited unusual behavior, deviating from typical safe-haven flows. Yields experienced a full round trip from pre-announcement levels, raising concerns about foreign investors potentially selling U.S. bonds.

• Dan Nathan discussed disappointing bond auctions and the attractiveness of foreign bonds:
  [12:17] "There's no question that to me that if I'm hedging local currency risk, investing in bonds and investing in even in BTBs in Italy or in gilts in the UK is probably a lot more attractive."

• Jim Cramer criticized Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant's effectiveness in calming market fears:
  [14:42] "Scott Bessant is not making me feel more comfortable every time he goes in front of the [media]."

Quote:
[12:45] Dan Nathan: "There's nothing about it that's going on that's going to stimulate growth."

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4. Earnings Season Preview

As earnings season approaches, panelists expressed skepticism about its immediate impact given the current market volatility and uncertainty.

• Tim Seymour argued that earnings results are "completely meaningless" without forward guidance:
  [07:54] "Earnings season that's coming upon us... results are completely meaningless."

• Carter Worth criticized the reliance on price targets:
  [09:56] "It's a reference number... I just see the value in it."

Quote:
[05:37] Sarah Eisen: "Navarro has been that way, too, though he was trashed on Twitter on X All over with Elon Musk today."

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5. Sector Analysis: Energy

The energy sector has faced significant declines, a stark contrast to its performance during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic.

• Carter Worth analyzed the sector's composition and performance, noting Exxon and Chevron's dominance:
  [34:44] "Two stocks, Exxon and Chevron are 40% of the sector."

• Dan Nathan discussed Delta Airlines as an economic indicator and its implications for the consumer sector:
  [25:15] "Delta is a great example... It gives us an insight into many different pockets of the economy."

Quote:
[34:43] Sarah Eisen: "How do you know when to buy it?"

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6. Private Credit as a Safe Haven

The panel explored private credit as a potential refuge amidst market volatility, discussing its benefits and challenges in providing portfolio protection.

• Dan Nathan introduced the concept, emphasizing the need for real data points amidst uncertainty:
  [31:32] "I want to understand first of all the trends that we were already seeing on some of the macro."

Quote:
[12:45] Dan Nathan: "...this is not a stimulative policy. There's nothing about it that's going on that's going to stimulate growth."

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7. Trader Insights: Navigating Volatility

Traders shared their strategies for managing portfolios during volatile times, focusing on risk management and selective investment.

• Karen Feinerman emphasized maintaining long positions on companies with strong balance sheets and competitive moats:
  [36:58] "I really look at the VIX and when I see the VIX spike... I want to make sure I own things with great balance sheets."

Quote:
[36:58] Karen Feinerman: "I haven't made moves... I have to keep some powder dry for when we have some clarity."

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8. Investor Recommendations and Final Trades

The episode concluded with panelists sharing their final trade recommendations, mostly favoring the energy sector despite its recent downturn.

• Julie Beal advocated for holding strong-performing solutions:
  [38:22] "All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions."

• Jim Cramer and Carter Worth endorsed investments in energy giants like Exxon and Chevron:
  [38:34] Jim Cramer: "TJX, the best acting stock in the entire market."

Quote:
[38:22] Julie Beal: "Julie, you all Solutions has held up pretty well. I think it's worth looking at."

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9. Key Takeaways and Conclusions

• Economic Uncertainty: The aggressive tariff strategy has led to significant market volatility, with mixed reactions from various sectors.

• Trade Deficit Focus: The administration's emphasis on reducing the trade deficit is complicating negotiations and increasing economic uncertainty.

• Bond Market Concerns: Unusual behaviors in bond yields signal potential shifts in investor sentiment and foreign investment strategies.

• Earnings Season Skepticism: Given the current instability, upcoming earnings reports may offer limited actionable insights.

• Energy Sector Opportunities: Despite recent declines, the energy sector presents potential investment opportunities, particularly in dominant players like Exxon and Chevron.

• Private Credit Potential: As traditional markets exhibit unpredictability, private credit emerges as a possible shelter for investor portfolios.

• Strategic Trading: Emphasis on strong balance sheets and market moats remains a consistent strategy among traders navigating the storm.

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• [00:32] Sarah Eisen: "The S&P jumping more than 4% in early trading but steadily giving back those gains... closing solidly in the red."

• [03:09] Megan Casella: "He said there's no particular timeline here... They are not going to solve overnight."

• [07:54] Tim Seymour: "Earnings season that's coming upon us... results are completely meaningless."

• [09:22] Julie Beal: "All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions."

• [12:17] Dan Nathan: "There's nothing about it that's going on that's going to stimulate growth."

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This episode of "Fast Money" delves deep into the ramifications of the administration's tariff policies on global markets, investor strategies, and specific sectors like energy and consumer goods. The panelists provide a multifaceted analysis, highlighting both challenges and potential opportunities amidst economic turbulence. Investors are advised to stay informed, remain adaptable, and consider protective measures such as private credit to navigate the ongoing market storm.

Transcript

[Jim Cramer]

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[Sarah Eisen]

Live from the NASDAQ market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is FAST money. Here's what's on tap tonight. The relief rally fails. Stocks ripping at the open as the administration boasts of talks with over 70 countries on potential trade deals. But hawkish comments from the Chicago Fed president. More tough talk on China. A weak auction in the bond market seemingly crushed the market's mojo. Is this the new normal investors need to get used to? For now, we will debate. Plus, earnings season about to start tomorrow we get Delta Friday, big banks start to report earnings. Will this be a headwind or a tailwind for the markets? Stick around to find out. And then later, inside the energy trade, after a promising start to the year, the sector has slumped big time. So even with a friendly push from the White House, is the oil patch still a no touch? We're going to take a look at the charts on that one. I'm Sarah Eisen in for Melissa Lee tonight. Coming to you live from the NASDAQ Studio B. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Dan Nathan, Carter Worth and Julie Beal. We're going to start with another stomach churning day for the markets. The S and P jumping more than 4% in early trading but steadily giving back those gains. Falling 3% at its lows, closing solidly in the red. The index is now down 12% since President Trump announced the tariffs just last Wednesday, the worst four day loss since the depths of the financial crisis. The Nasdaq meanwhile erasing a more than 4 1/2% gain to close over 2% lower. And then the Dow up over 1400 points at its highs, ended the day down more than 300. Take a look at Apple down for a fourth straight day, losing more than 20% and more than $770 billion in market cap during that time. The broad market reversal coming as we are just hours away from the onset of country specific tariffs, including the potential of an additional 50% tariff on China going all the way up to 104%. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee saying the tariffs announced by President Trump last week were much higher than what the central bank was factoring into its forecasts. But Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant defending the president's policy on squawk box this morning, if we're successful, tariffs would be a.

[Tim Seymour]

Melting ice cube in a way because you're taking in the revenues as the manufacturing facilities are built in the US.

[Dan Nathan]

And there should be some level of.

[Sarah Eisen]

Symmetry between the taxes we begin taking.

[Tim Seymour]

In with the new industry from the.

[Sarah Eisen]

Payroll taxes as the tariffs decline. And earlier today, U.S. trade Rep. Jamison Greer testified on Capitol Hill that the policies were starting to get results. Let's go to Megan Casella for all of the headlines. Megan, what can you tell us?

[Megan Casella]

Hey, Sarah. So we heard from Jameson Greer, a very strong defense of the tariffs. He told senators an adjustment period would be worth it to bring manufacturing jobs back to the US and to reduce the trade deficit. He said the administration is open to negotiations with with other countries and suggested that the US could lower potentially the new tariffs as long as countries had good ideas about how to reduce that deficit. He said there's no particular timeline here. They're working as fast as they can. But given that these issues, he says, have been decades in the making, they are not going to be solved overnight. And while Greer said the administration will be going country by country to try to strike these deals, there was one country he said is not likely to see a deal where, quote, in the near term, and that was China.

[Julie Beal]

We're trying to remedy a situation.

[Sarah Eisen]

We're trying to remedy a situation that's.

[Julie Beal]

Persisted for many years. And it would be wonderful if the.

[Jim Cramer]

Chinese agreed with that and wanted to.

[Julie Beal]

Persist in, you know, work with us on that.

[Sarah Eisen]

But that's not where they are and.

[Julie Beal]

The president has recognized this and he wants to focus on other partners.

[Megan Casella]

Now, those comments came just before the White House confirmed this afternoon that an additional 84% tariff will be taking effect against China tonight. That's on top of the 20% fentanyl tariff that took effect earlier, earlier this term, I'll note. Sarah, we have not seen the president yet sign paperwork to make the new rate official, especially that extra 50%. But the White House says they do expect that will happen at some point today. Sarah?

[Sarah Eisen]

Megan, are the goalposts changing here for those negotiations? At first they wanted to lower tariffs on American companies overseas and then non tariff barriers like VAT taxes or exchange rates that are, that are more fixed. And now they want to wipe out trade deficits with countries, which I think is harder than all of those things because how do you negotiate out of that if you're a country like Vietnam, which is much poorer than the United States.

[Megan Casella]

Right. When a country simply can't afford to buy nearly as much as we buy from a place like Vietnam, where Nike gets a lot of its material shipped over, for example. The goalposts have always been a little bit hazy with this administration. They seem to want to do multiple things at once. We even heard the president say earlier this week that he likes the idea of these as a revenue raiser and as a negotiating tactic. Which can it be both? Obviously, they would have to stay in place in order to raise significant revenue. And in that case, you're not negotiating. We don't know. What we can say now for sure is that Greer was pretty singularly focused on the trade deficit as sort of the overarching goal. And a lot would have to happen for us to get there. So we'll see what happens next.

[Sarah Eisen]

Yeah, Navarro has been that way, too, though he was trashed on Twitter on X All over with Elon Musk today. Thank you, Megan. Megan Casella, our next guest just lowered his S and P target for the year end to 5,600, down from 6,800. Julian Emanuel, senior managing director at Evercore. So this was a game changer for you?

[Tim Seymour]

Yeah. I mean, look, if you're going to announce what was announced on April 2 in the sledgehammer form and you're going to put in numbers that are higher than Smoot Hawley, the obvious effect is going to be much more market volatility, much more uncertainty, which we've gotten. And you know, frankly, the questions I'm getting is why is it that you aren't going to a recession base case economically and why is it that you're not going to a recession in terms of earnings? And our view is, is that as someone who wants to think about the market, there are two things you need to believe in to believe in higher stock prices this year. First off, that we are approaching the level of peak uncertainty with regard to the trade issues. We do believe that to be the case. Obviously, it's ratcheted even higher in the last several hours. And then the other is that that Washington does not wish to precipitate a recession. Okay. Because there are lots and lots of consequences.

[Dan Nathan]

This, this is a policy team that seems to think that recession is. Sorry, this is an administration that seems to have indicated that recession is a policy potential or that essentially it is policy.

[Jim Cramer]

Right.

[Dan Nathan]

I mean, I guess. So my question to you is then back to the markets. Because I hear what you're saying, you're being cautious and you always are, and I think you're right to be. But on a day when stocks, bonds and the dollar sold off, you and I have spent a lot of time looking at emerging markets. That's kind of what this feels like. And this is a market that today, to me felt like a market that's always a discounting mechanism. Felt like it was really discounting significant, I think loss in revenues in terms of tax structure and a dynamic that I think are the result of where we are two or three chess moves down the road, I guess. Back to earnings season that's coming upon us. I mean, how do you begin to even calculate this?

[Tim Seymour]

It's very difficult, Tim. And the fact is, is that results for this earnings season are completely meaningless. You know, there's no importance to them whatsoever. What it is is basically CEOs willingness to and not even project forward to the current quarter to lay out a scenario, a number of scenarios in terms of what to expect for the rest of the year and 2026. And frankly, the message should be that the attempt to make this transformation is something that, you know, economic wreckage is going to make it much more difficult globally to achieve the desired ends.

[Carter Worth]

I mean, Julian, one thing that brings to mind about all this is that something always comes to town. It's tariffs, or it could be Covid or could be September 11th. It's a convention and it's a new one to have a price target in the first place. Right. The Dow was what was referred to, not the S and p until about 1992, as you will know. And then price targets started appearing for individual companies, but not widely disseminated. And then for the market. And now every firm must have a price target. It's arbitrary 12 months versus 11 versus 13. And, and you know this too, things come along, tariffs, and it makes the whole model, oops, blown up. Just as said, earnings could not be more irrelevant this coming quarter. So why not abandon the convention? I mean, why do it?

[Tim Seymour]

It's a reference number.

[Carter Worth]

I think it's a comfort blanket. People like to think, oh, this is where they think, or they think the market's going. And here's the other thing that's inconvenient about it since this has been tracked, and you know this as well, all strategists put out a price target and it's always calling for higher. Never once as a group have strategies called for a lower stock market. Not in any year. I think the whole thing is borderline silly. And as I do with you personally, I was a strategist on a fundamental side. Now I'm a technician. But I never understood it and I still don't. And I'm almost 60.

[Tim Seymour]

Well, I will say, I will say this, Carter. Go back and look at a chart of the Dow Jones or the S and P going back to 1982 and think about the last 40 odd plus years. Calling for a higher target year in and year has been extremely winning strategy.

[Carter Worth]

But guess what those targets are? They're always 10% higher, which is the average growth of the market over the last hundred years. So I just don't see the value in it. And it's nothing to do with you personally. We've known each other a long time. I'm just saying something that has always been a mystery to me and I'm still trying to figure it out. I thought someone might have an answer.

[Sarah Eisen]

Well, no, but I think it's interesting that your target is higher than we are right now, even though you've turned bearish. So you think we're going to rally?

[Tim Seymour]

We do. And as I said, it's predicated on the idea that the administration will, in the final analysis, not tolerate a recession. Because if you think about it, the most important piece of legislation that needs to get passed is the budget and the debt ceiling. And frankly, we all know that that's going to require every Republican to row in the same boat. And there's a lot of Republicans that have never voted to raise the debt ceiling. And I would suggest that it's going to be easier to get that accomplish with an economy that's moving in the right direction than one that is, you know, on the precipice of moving in the wrong direction.

[Sarah Eisen]

It does throw into question a lot of the agenda. I think if we are moving toward recession and we continue to see market days like this day after day after day. Right.

[Tim Seymour]

There's no way it can't.

[Sarah Eisen]

Okay. Thank you, Julian. It's good to have you. Julian Emanuel.

[Jim Cramer]

Dan, I just think you got to focus on this intraday volatility right now. If you're an investor and you're looking for opportunities to kind of figure out where this market bottoms, I think given the uncertainty on policy like you just mentioned, it really makes it hard. It brings you back to maybe Covid in those early days in March of 2020 or you go back to kind of the summer of 2008 where we really didn't know what the potential outcomes I think we have that Here except for the fact that you have an administration who could put somewhat of an end to the guessing game. Right. And so the S and P right now after a 7% intraday move is pricing for the rest of the week about a 6% move in either direction. That seems cheap. Right now the MOVE index that tracks the treasury market is at all its 52 week highs, you know, right now. So we're seeing some major dislocations. Crude oil just broke below basically its Covid lows other than the one that it got all funky, you know what I mean with the delivery thing or whatever. There's just a lot of things there.

[Sarah Eisen]

Act I think we should stop and talk about bonds today because something really funky happened in the bond market which is so what's been happening since the tariffs were announced. As people bought bonds, they went into safe haven bonds, they bet on recession and yields went down. Guess what started happening yesterday? The opposite. And it wasn't a relief rally because today stocks sold off and bond yields did a full round trip from pre liberation day. And now we worry. Do we have to worry about foreigners selling our bonds?

[Dan Nathan]

Look, it's a great question and one of the first things I think we should say is that there was on this topic is there was a, a very disappointing three year auction tens and thirties this week. I think it's both ignorant and arrogant to assume that there can't be some regime change. You know, people want to sit around and say reserve currency is not in question and that the US is still the place that's going to be the flight to quality. I agree with that. But there's no question that to me that if I'm hedging local currency risk, investing in bonds and investing in even in btbs in Italy or in gilts in the UK is probably a lot more attractive. It is more attractive than it's ever been. The GDP differentials have come to a place where actually you could see a GDP surplus or essentially a spread over what's going on here. You also get to a place where we talk about this all the time and, and I know people kind of poo poo the ratings agencies but again I've been investing in emerging markets my whole career. The things that are going on here is the kind of stuff that gets you downgraded. And if you look at the revenue side of the income statement and based upon dynamics, do we really think tariffs are going to make up for lost revenue that would be coming from tax revenues? And do you really think that this, the policy that we're hearing about, whatever you want to call it is a $740 billion tax. It's a tax tariff. You know, you can, you can use that word too. But that ultimately this is a dynamic where it's going to be, this is not a stimulative policy. There's nothing about it that's going on that's going to stimulate growth. So I get back to the bond market because I do think this is what you had today. You had a dynamic where not only are we 50 basis points wider on the 30 than we were earlier in the week at a time when you should be seeing a flight to quality here in a growth scare.

[Sarah Eisen]

My point.

[Dan Nathan]

And so I think that's part of what's going on here and part of the volatility we're all talking about. The dollar just today, just in today's trading session had five intraday moves of plus 50 bips, minus 50 bips, plus 50 bips, minus 50bips, five times for the dollar today alone.

[Jim Cramer]

Yeah, but think about what happened today. It's a great example of how they've just gotten things asked backwards. They were focused on the 10 year yield. Remember that's the thing that they were worried about lowering it. And the stock market, they didn't really care. And look at the weakness in the stock market, the strength in yields. And so that's the sort of thing that makes you lose confidence about what they come out and say. I don't know about you, Scott Bessant is not making me feel more comfortable every time he goes in front of the.

[Sarah Eisen]

I think this morning he was making people feel more comfortable because he's the one who's talking about negotiations with trading partners. I mean when he posted on X that he's in charge of negotiations with Japan, that helped.

[Jim Cramer]

But the market, I mean, like, let's be, let's be frank, you know, like we kind of, you know, have had some struggle.

[Sarah Eisen]

I think the question is, is there damage done? Julie, I want to bring you in. What, what are you doing with all of this?

[Julie Beal]

Yeah, I mean, I think all of us can are sitting very still. Most of our portfolios are outperforming on a relative basis because we've seen this flight to quality and you know, we tend to benefit on a relative point. I think the biggest challenge that I really see is you have this really clear mismatch in duration in terms of the Trump objectives and that is that with the strike of a pen we've changed tariffs. Right. We haven't done the normal traditional going through the structure, going through Congress to create a structural change. But we're hoping to create a structural change in the economy in that we want manufacturing to come back. And those don't work together. Right. You cannot have this stroke of the pen change right now with the hopes that there will be structural investment on the long term, because there's just no real incentive if you're a U.S. economy, if you're a capital allocator right now, there is no real incentive to be sticking your neck out and investing, be it in people, be it in capital goods, there's no incentive. You just don't have enough clarity. And so we can be enthusiastic about raising revenue in the near term and creating deals kind of in the short term, but you continue to have these mismatches in timing and goals. And I think that's actually the biggest problem, right, is that every time the Trump administration speaks, the goals seem to change. And so we don't have clarity on timelines and we don't have clarity on objectives. And without those, it's really hard not to feel completely paralyzed.

[Sarah Eisen]

Dan, wouldn't you feel better, though, listening to Treasury Secretary Bessant over Peter Navarro? That was the other.

[Jim Cramer]

But even Lutnick sounds like a fool when he comes out there. Because they're talking in ways that we know as market participants are not the truth. You know, these sycophants, they're going down there and they're talking about somebody, you know, they're talking about a policy of somebody that none of us believe has a good handle on it. That would be the President of the United States. And, you know, think about all these other market participants who come out, all these other billionaire hedge fund guys. They're basically looking at them and they're telling them, we don't believe you. You know what I mean, about this policy. We know better. And that's the thing. I just think.

[Sarah Eisen]

I think they just don't like the execution of how it was done.

[Jim Cramer]

They don't believe Okamont. They don't believe that the reshoring is going to happen anytime soon. And to Tim's point, it's going to offset some of the weakness that we're having.

[Sarah Eisen]

But I think it's a fair goal to go after countries that have limited access. And why should we be the second freest market in terms of trading? I think we can fight back on that. The question is just how you do that.

[Dan Nathan]

I think everybody wants an environment where the US Is able to exert the leverage that it deserves and not be, you know, certainly not, not to be punished in certain markets. But the idea of having a balanced trade budget with every country in the world to me is one of the most ludicrous things I've ever heard. But, but that's part of the conversation, that's part of the inconsistency. So if this is really about going back and extracting back the leverage that we deserve and should have as a trading partner, as the most important trading partner to every country in the world, I mean, that's a great goal. And to do things that are going to help American, American households get jobs in industries that are actually the ones that will pay them more money, bring that business back to United States. But most importantly, this really started about taking care of strategic industries and protecting our interests in the, in the industries where we really can't mess around. And I think those are great goals and I think those are goals of this administration. So I think the problem is that we're getting mixed messages, I think, as it relates to China. And we're going to have a great conversation on China.

[Sarah Eisen]

So maybe I should, let's, let's dive into China because our part of it. Our next guest thinks China's options are limited short of taking drastic actions against the United States. Shahzad Kazi is the China Beige Book CEO and Managing director. So we are set to get these higher tariffs now, 104% increase on China altogether. What is China going to do about it?

[Shahzad Kazi]

Well, you know, they can do things like double down on tariffs. They can announce more investigations. They can go after more companies. They can tell their citizens, do not go and buy from Chinese, from American companies, boycott them. They've done that before to companies belonging to the Japanese and so forth. So they have those toolkits. But beyond that, I don't see them taking some of the biggest, most drastic actions that would be considered, I think acts of war like weaponizing the treasury holdings or trying to interfere with our critical supplies.

[Sarah Eisen]

So $760 billion is what China holds now in US treasuries. It's come down a lot, but it's still the number two foreign holder of our debt. You don't see that as a weapon?

[Shahzad Kazi]

I don't think that they're going to try to use that right now. I think that would be a very, very serious escalation. We need to keep in mind that ultimately what Xi wants here is a deal. And they've been hoping actually to get the quote unquote right messages across to the administration since really the beginning. They would like for all this to go away as soon as possible.

[Dan Nathan]

We're on a day when the offshore yuan hit an all time low against the dollar. So we're talking about a country that's export driven. We're talking about something that really is as catastrophic as you can get. And I guess I want to be clear here. While I'm frustrated by some of the policy, I'm all for pushing here and I think we have all the cards to play here. I really do. I mean, I think that the things I worry more about are not necessarily what China can do back to us, but I worry more about how China is going to react in the region. And frankly, China spent a lot of time in the last year really disregarding a lot of protocols that I think are very important ones. Can you talk about that? I mean, should we be more concerned about Taiwan here? And some of the things that I think frankly have us more worried than what happens to the Chinese economy?

[Shahzad Kazi]

Yeah, look, I mean, they're, you know, they've gotten very, very aggressive in terms of their military drills. Is this idea that, you know, could you ultimately conceal a real invasion of Taiwan under one of these drills? They've gotten very aggressive vis a vis the Philippines. So certainly that risk is there. And, you know, that also creates a problem of accidental war between the US And China. Again, I would put Taiwan right now in the bucket of things that they do not want to get to. An invasion of Taiwan I don't think is very high on the priority list for 2025. That calculus will most likely change, I think, as we get towards the end of the decade.

[Sarah Eisen]

Can you just tell us how US Consumers are going to be affected by these tariffs? Because we still manufacture a lot of apparel and footwear and accessories and baby strollers and toys and electronics in China.

[Shahzad Kazi]

You know, last time around, when the first tranche of Trump tariffs went into effect in the first administration, you know, the general rule of thumb that was, you know, one third is eaten by the Chinese suppliers, one third is eaten by the American importers, and then one third, of course, the consumers have to eat. That's how it was discussed. We'll see to what extent that plays out again, because obviously there is no one to one relationship between the tariff hikes and what the increase in consumer prices is going to be. But I think we can reasonably assume that there are going to be increases, at least in certain areas.

[Sarah Eisen]

And how hard is China going to get hit?

[Shahzad Kazi]

Well, China, they are concerned about the fact that that would bring down demand that that would actually be worse for their economy at a time when they're hoping that property stabilizes, when they know that there is no realistic hope for a consumer driven boom there whatsoever. Manufacturing and their industrial base is very, very critical to them. So that's why I said they could, if they could wish it all away, they would today.

[Sarah Eisen]

All right. We'll be watching that fix that yuan fix tonight. Thank you very much, Shazad Kazi. Appreciate it. From China Beige Book Coming up, we are digging into Delta ahead of earnings tomorrow, how the airplane will fare after a nearly 40% drop already this year in the stock and what it could tell us about the current state of the consumer. That's coming up next. And then later this week it is the bank's turn. How traders should be bracing for those results and the names that could weather the storm. Don't go anywhere. Just getting started. Fast Money back in two.

[Jim Cramer]

The last thing you want to hear when you need your auto insurance most is a robot with countless irrelevant menu options. Which is why with USAA auto insurance, you'll get great service that is easy and reliable all at the touch of a button. Get a quote today, restrictions apply. The Investing Club annual meeting.

[Shahzad Kazi]

I intend to give you the single best day of stocks and thought imaginable.

[Jim Cramer]

Get your ticket now. Go to cnbc.com Jim's meeting.

[Sarah Eisen]

Welcome back to Fast Money. We could get our next big read on the state of the consumer tomorrow morning when Delta Airlines reports Q1 results. Stock is down 40% this year and nearly 18% just this month. Other consumer facing stocks like Lululemon, Nike, Ralph Lauren and others, they've also been under serious pressure in April. Dan, Delta is going to be a good sort of real time read on how the consumer is taking all this in.

[Jim Cramer]

Yeah. And we've talked about this in company guided, I want to say in late January, early February and then they kind of came out with that pre announcement. I think we were all a bit shocked in the speed in which they were changing their, their outlook. You know, we talk about earnings season all the time and we talk about the mood of the market, the mood of investors as you head into it. And sometimes if it's a really bearish mood and you know, you don't have that high of a hurdle to get over to have your stock or the sector sort of rally. And so this one's going to be really interesting because the visibility that a lot of companies have is kind of kaput. Right. And it really does come down to, you know, what are the results? How do you think they're going to be trending? And I don't think it's too different than what we're seeing in the market. What we just talked about on a broader scale. I just think that things are to continue to move around in a way that feels very uncomfortable to most investors. Especially after we had two consecutive years of 25% returns in the S&P 500. And a lot of the sectors and a lot of the themes seemed infallible, you know what I mean? And now you have to question everything because the leadership has gone the way of the dodo. And just Delta is a great example. This Stock went from $38 at its lows in 2024 to $70. And now it's round trip, the whole thing from all time highs to 52 week lows in a big range.

[Dan Nathan]

Delta, I think with airlines also they're, they're guilty of their history. So we have a dynamic here where if demand softening, these are, these are carriers that and Delta is the best of them. And I'm long Delta but I'm fortunately not as long as I was and the stock has been cut in half. But capacity trends are things you have to watch. Have they gotten lazy in the world that was very good for them and have they suddenly found themselves over their skis? The good news for airlines are our oil prices, our energy, our fuel prices. So I do think there's some support for airlines at these levels. Delta looks wildly cheap on a trailing basis. The question is you had some dynamic of just the cycle of people returning to flying, to business travel, to the front of the bus to things that I think probably on a relative basis in terms of the comps were as good in the last 18 months as you're going to see in a long time. I love Delta. I'm not sure you you're going to miss the trade if you don't buy it ahead of these numbers.

[Sarah Eisen]

Julie, consumer names in general right now. I mean I've been talking to retail executives. 15% is what they're estimating right now. America, we are going to pay 15% more for apparel, footwear and accessories and even more than that if you get sourced in China. I mean how do you provide earnings guidance in this kind of environment not knowing how the consumer is going to react to that.

[Julie Beal]

Yeah, I think that's like the real crux that they're in is to have a sense of how much are we going to give up in margin on this. How temporary is this and again, because they have no guidance on the timeline, it's really hard for them to issue their own guidance. In the same way that Carter hates, you know, targets for the S and P, I personally hate guidance because I just think that a lot of it just creates a lot more noise than it really helps. A lot of this is very unknowable for many companies to be able to figure out. I think retail is really at the crux of it tomorrow. Delta. The thing that I love so much about Delta is it gives us an insight into many different pockets of the economy that we really need more visibility on. One of them being what does business travel really look like? What is the state of the consumer? Are people confident enough to be booking their summer vacations or suddenly people really pulling back? Right. If we think about a recession in terms of any kind of decline in demand, it's well in excess of people who lose their jobs. It's just people who are afraid of losing their jobs and they pull back their spend. And that's why recessions are much deeper than you would guess based on how many people got laid off. I think the real question is understanding how companies are thinking about how much of a hit they're willing to take on margins versus how much they're going to pass off. And that actually gives you a lot of insight into how competitive and how well protected they are. Companies that have a lot of very differentiated goods, they're going to be able to pass on more price than companies that are more commodity.

[Sarah Eisen]

Yeah. And that's not even talking about the wealth effect of this stock market tumble, which is maybe the most immediate impact on uncertainty down what, 12% or so in just a one week period will be interesting and we will be all over it on CNBC as always when we come back here on FAST money. Financials on deck as well. JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley and others kicking off earnings season next week. More in the days after. What to expect from the biggest banks next. Plus volatility raging through the markets. But our next guest may have a shelter from the storm. Why he says private could could present some protection for your portfolio. You're watching FAST money. We are live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square and back after a quick break.

[Jim Cramer]

Auto insurance can all seem the same until it comes time to use it. So don't get stuck paying more for less coverage. Switch to USA Auto insurance and you could start saving money in no time. Get a quote today, restrictions apply. The Investing Club annual meeting.

[Shahzad Kazi]

I intend to give you the single best Day of stocks and thought imaginable.

[Jim Cramer]

Get your ticket now. Go to cnbc.com jimsmeeting.

[Dan Nathan]

I watch fast Money every day. Every person that watches our show can get something out of what markets have done that day and some investment ideas. And you don't have to be a professional.

[Sarah Eisen]

I learn so much from them and.

[Dan Nathan]

I often act on their suggestions.

[Karen Feinerman]

You have to be nimble, but you don't want to sort of be distracted by whatever you think of the moment.

[Carter Worth]

Is being here on the set with.

[Sarah Eisen]

A bright light shining and it's a different experience.

[Jim Cramer]

This event was so important, gave us access to our fan base, gave them access to us and let us meet in an environment that's a lot of fun and something a lot of people will never get an opportunity to do.

[Sarah Eisen]

I love these. Tim, this is such good timing. Also you're having another live event.

[Dan Nathan]

Yeah, thanks. Well, it's probably a great time to do it. Honestly, what we were doing back in the end of February and what we're going to do in June, it's huddling up with, with our audience and really talking about markets, testing out theories. I mean it's really a chance to have those conversations that are the ones that probably require a little bit of time. It's a time to everyone to get to know each other a little bit. But it's really, I mean it's tons of fun. We had a great time. But I think in difficult markets it's really a chance to kind of reaffirm a lot of views and talk about ideas and I think that's probably what's.

[Sarah Eisen]

Going to be really your ideas and their questions. I feel like that's also instructive.

[Dan Nathan]

It's a good, well, who knows, maybe Dan's ideas, maybe guys ideas. I mean I think part of it.

[Jim Cramer]

I got booed.

[Dan Nathan]

Well, it's, it's a combination of bringing a lot of ideas to the table and I think that's what that experience was like and I think people felt.

[Sarah Eisen]

That no one gets booed here. Meanwhile, after spending a chunk of the day firmly in the green bank bank stocks getting caught up in the sell off like everyone else. Late in the day, only JP Morgan hung on to gains. But with earnings season coming at the end of the week. How do you play the banks from here? Carter?

[Carter Worth]

You know, I think I would default. And he said exactly, it's not going to matter. I mean just what you said, the Delta. What Delta's earnings aren't going to matter, right? The earnings, I mean obviously the outlooks aren't going to matter because they don't have an outlook that was good and now they have to suspend it based on all the things that have come along so that you can look at the options market and see what the implied moves are. For instance, Delta's got an implied move of 10% and make your bets. But it is in this particular moment it is all macro and it really isn't going to matter what they say and they don't have any ability to guide forward either.

[Sarah Eisen]

I guess the question is. So Tim, this was one of the most popular trades going into the year. Sure was. Everyone was all excited.

[Dan Nathan]

Animal spirits, right.

[Sarah Eisen]

Pro growth policies from the administration, animal spirits, deal making, deregulation. Does all of that get thrown out the window?

[Dan Nathan]

Well, I'm going to be, I'm going to sound a little more interested in these earnings and I understand the context that both Carter and Julian put it into. There's no question. But I really, if anyone, if I want to hear from anybody, I want to hear from banks. I want to understand first of all the trends that we were already seeing on some of the macro. I understand there's pre tariff and there's a post tariff. But I want to get some sense also on credit trends. I want to get some sense really on credit spreads of widen where they absolutely have where I think they're also seeing volatility in the capital markets business. So I think it's, it's very important. I think it's about time we actually get some real data points. I do think at some point markets become a distraction to really understanding fundamentals about companies. So I look, I welcome the earnings season. I think we need some of that right now.

[Sarah Eisen]

Yeah. Well when we come back, a potential safe haven from the market volatility. Why our next guest says private credit could provide shelter for your portfolio details when Fast MONEY returns. Welcome back to Fast MONEY News Alert here on Peabody Energy. The stock is actually surging right now, more than 23% after reports the utility is reviewing options at its nearly $4 billion acquisition of Anglo American. Rare bright spot here after hours for stocks. Meanwhile, energy stocks in general have been under pressure as WTI crude settles at four year lows. It's the worst performing S and P sector so far in April down almost 18% during that time. Occidental, Devon Energy, APA, Diamondback among the names getting hit the hardest in today's session. So Carter, what are the charts tell you?

[Carter Worth]

Yeah, let's look at a few but the first thing is obviously year to Date energy is down a lot less than the market and so that's positive. But is it even a sector? Does it matter? Just look at some of the stats. We know it's a sector, but it's. The entire thing is 3.37% of the S&P. And two stocks, Exxon and Chevron are 40% of the sector. So it's a sector, but two stocks are 40% of the whole thing. It's only 3%. A lot of people employed, very important area of the economy. But as it relates the stock market, not that important. Let's look at though some charts of the XLE and this is what's informative. Of course it was the worst performing sector during COVID because no planes are moving, no cars running. It was the single best performing as seen here in the rebound from COVID going up 300% versus you know, 200 for the S and P and then for the last three years dead flat where the market's gone up. So that's an absolute chart. The better way to depict this is a relative chart or a ratio chart. And this is really the story. So it's the volatility that's so shocking. You plunge and underperform into Covid. You are the best performer out of COVID and then obviously one of the worst performers over the past two, three years. The issue is, is it cheap? Is there some sort of safety here? Final chart, it shows how energy was of course the worst performer the.com that was its relative lows and yet it was the best performer during the financial crisis business because it was safe.

[Sarah Eisen]

So how do you know when to buy it?

[Carter Worth]

Well, that's exactly. I think it's time to take an energy stake that this is so unloved, it's so not important in the S and P. And I would do it through either Exxon or Chevron or frankly just do the xle.

[Sarah Eisen]

Okay, Carter, thank you. When we come back, Karen Feinerman joins us from the west coast to lay out how she's navigating all this market volatility and why she is still staying long, more fast and too. Welcome back to fast money. The Mag 7 hit especially hard in the recent sell off. The group now down more than 30% from that 52 week high. Fast money trader Karen Feinerman is in Los angeles today at CNBC's Changemaker Summit. We'll get to that in a minute. But first, Karen, good to see you. How are you handling all this market turmoil? Did you do anything today?

[Karen Feinerman]

I think medicated might Be the best answer? No. So this is, I'm always long and this is the kind of market that's challenging, of course, for that kind of strategy. But I really look at the VIX and when I see the VIX spike, I mean the movement in the VIX today, as you all know, I don't know if you talked about it earlier. Show of course, was extraordinary. So when the VIX gets this high, I'm going to look, look to cover some hedges which gets me longer. So that's what I'm doing. I'm kind of, you know, I want to make sure I own things with great balance sheets. As I said, I am heavy. Mag7 so Matt is big position Amazon now second biggest position. And that's where I feel comfortable staying. It is not my strategy to try to time the market. I have no ability to do that and I think it's almost impossible to do. So I've got to stick with things that I'm comfortable owning. Balance sheets that are great, businesses that have moats. Clearly everything is going to be affected if we don't resolve this tariff situation soon.

[Sarah Eisen]

One thing I was really looking forward to hearing from you about was retail because that is also one of your specialties. And you know, it sort of doesn't matter if you're in a good retail story or bad retail story story right now. They're just all getting thrown out because of the tariff risk and exposure. Have you made any moves there?

[Karen Feinerman]

I haven't made moves. I mean, there's some things that I think are cheap that I would like to, but I feel like I need a little bit of clarity. My biggest retail position is Wal Mart, which of course is down. It's down less than some others because of their size. And Amazon obviously is a big sort of retail as well. Well, but I haven't added to anything new. Normally I would have, but I'm just so uncertain and so I have to keep some powder dry for when we have some clarity.

[Sarah Eisen]

All right, as we mentioned, you're in LA for the second annual Changemaker Summit recognizing the 50 women who are transforming their industries. What can you tell us? How's it been so far?

[Karen Feinerman]

It's been fascinating so far. I mean, with women from so many different types of businesses. And we just had the mayor of Phoenix, Kathy Gallego, who is fantastic. Nafisa Collier is here, the extraordinary basketball player. So, I mean, so many different women. I always get inspired in hearing other women's stories of how did they navigate, how did they get to where they are And Julia, of course, does a really fantastic job.

[Sarah Eisen]

Yeah. Our shout out to Julia Boy, abortion. Karen, thank you very much. It's good to see you. Have fun at the rest of the conference. Not too much medication. Up next, your final trades. Time for the final trades. Let's go around the horn.

[Julie Beal]

Julie, you all Solutions has held up pretty well. I think it's worth looking at.

[Dan Nathan]

Tim, Sarah, great having you here. Thank you. Go Gators. Exxon Gators. Yeah. One last night.

[Sarah Eisen]

Dan.

[Jim Cramer]

Yeah. TJX, the best acting stock in the entire market.

[Carter Worth]

Carter A2, 4. Let's go with Chevron as well. She had Exxon. Chevron.

[Sarah Eisen]

Okay, there you go. Long on energy, which has been slammed. Thank you all for watching Fast Money tonight. Mad Money is going to start right now with Jim Cramer.

[Julie Beal]

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[Sarah Eisen]

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[Julie Beal]

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[Sarah Eisen]

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[Julie Beal]

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[Carter Worth]

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[Julie Beal]

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[Sarah Eisen]

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[Julie Beal]

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[Jim Cramer]

Disclaimer 2 Squawkbox exclusives Apollo CEO Mark Rowan, Turbulent markets and the state of the economy. Plus former Secretary of State Antony Blinken in his first TV interview since leaving office. Squawkbox tomorrow, 6aM Eastern. CNBC.