Tariffs, Banks & Private Credit Jitters… And Crypto Below $65K 2/23/26

Summary

Podcast Summary: CNBC Fast Money – "Tariffs, Banks & Private Credit Jitters… And Crypto Below $65K"

Air Date: February 23, 2026
Location: Live from Miami Beach at the iConnections Global Alts Conference
Host: Melissa Lee
Panel: Dan Nathan, Guy Adami, Mike Santoli (remote), plus special guests Paul Horvath (Orchard Global), Yoshiko Yamaguchi (Soya Japan Research), Reeve Collins (STBL), Joe Romeo (Galaxy Digital)

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Episode Overview

The panel returns from a two-week Olympics break to dissect an increasingly turbulent market landscape, focusing on sector-specific crackups, persistent credit concerns, and renewed trade/tariff uncertainty. The episode highlights mounting risks for investors — especially in private credit and software stocks — and examines why crypto and banks continue to struggle. The team also covers the fallout from a major Northeast blizzard, explores Japanese investing post-election, and investigates the sharp declines in weight loss drug stocks. Throughout, the tone is candid, fast-paced, and occasionally irreverent, with traders providing actionable insights and context for institutional and retail investors alike.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Sector Crack-ups and Market Complacency

Timestamps: 00:47–06:48

• Credit and Software Weakness:

  • Dan Nathan notes that “credit is first and foremost on everybody’s mind... Blue Owl, crypto doesn’t bounce at all, now [the trouble is] making its way into the banking sector” (02:12).
  • Guy Adami draws parallels to past crises: “It looks a little bit like the 2000 period... [but] a lot of this build out has been financialized in a way that it was not in the late 90s. And it seems to be all converging at once” (02:41).
  • Despite these issues, the S&P is down less than 2% from all-time highs, which Guy calls “a level of complacency” (02:57).

• Software and Financials Hit:

  • Melissa Lee observes the software ETF IGV “broke ... back at levels not seen since 2023 and now hitting the financials” (03:21).
  • Multiple software leaders (Microsoft, Salesforce, Adobe) reverting to multi-year lows; even Microsoft "right back where it was three years ago" (03:51–04:26).

• Market Leadership Rotation:

  • Guy recalls that poster children like Nvidia, Tesla, and Meta lost on average 70%+ during the recent swoon; “Palantir... down 40% from its recent highs” (04:40–05:17).
  • Dan points out how bubbles deflate: “If you are the last person to buy it... you’re losing money” (05:29).

Notable Quote:

Guy Adami [02:57]:
"There's a level of complacency about this, but if you look under the hood, it's actually one of the sorts of periods that I can't remember where we've seen so much devastation in two or three really important parts of the market."

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2. Tariffs & Policy Uncertainty

Timestamps: 05:56–10:52

• Tariff Fallout:
  • New 15% tariffs for 150 days; Supreme Court decision offers little relief.
  • Dan: “The average tariff rate before this was 16%...with 15% again for the next 150 days...uncertainty about what happens after” (09:45).
  • Walmart is a rare retail winner, buoyed by strong execution and AI integration, but broader concern remains for retail due to creeping delinquency rates and shakier consumer fundamentals (10:09–10:52).

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3. Private Credit and Blue Owl’s Contagion

Timestamps: 12:28–22:54

• Blue Owl’s Ripples:

  • Blue Owl’s stock is down 15% in days over liquidity concerns, hitting the wider private credit sector (14:22).
  • Guest Paul Horvath (Orchard Global) stresses that private credit isn’t homogeneous: “There’s good private credit and there’s challenged private credit... steer our investors towards the good and away from the stressed” (14:58).

• Asset-Heavy vs. Asset-Light:

  • Paul: “We like to do... asset heavy rather than asset light... If that unexpected happens... we can sell those machines or sell those assets and get our money back... In credit, you don’t need to pick the winners, you need to avoid the losers” (15:58).

• Is This 2008 Redux?

  • Paul downplays systemic risk: “Systemic risk that worried the regulators in 08 and 09, I just don’t see... Private credit is $2 trillion; banks control $200 trillion in assets” (18:19).

• Bid for Distressed Assets:

  • On recent 70-cent-on-the-dollar bids for Blue Owl assets: “Headlines are made and people should look into this. But let’s not throw the baby out with the bathwater... we see great opportunity in Europe” (20:00).

Notable Quote:

Paul Horvath [18:19]:
"There are going to be winners and losers in private credit, but the systemic risk that would worry the regulators in 08 and 09, I just don’t see [that risk] now."

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4. Weather and Travel Ripple Effects

Timestamps: 25:36–29:08

• Northeast Blizzard:
  • Historic snowfall and winds, with major cities crippled; 8,000+ flights canceled (25:36–27:28).
• Travel & Leisure Hit:
  • Airline and hotel stocks slide due to weather and wider unrest (notably, violence in Mexico also impacting travel sentiment).
  • Guy: “Look at Expedia...down about 40%. So you have AI disruption, then you have all this stuff...make you really kind of think about how fragile some of these stories are” (28:27).

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5. Japan’s Post-Election Opportunity

Timestamps: 32:44–37:29

• Election Aftermath & Policy Agenda:

  • Guest Yoshiko Yamaguchi highlights how new PM Takaichi’s win gives mandate for major reforms, including a focus on strategic industries, defense, and improving consumer affordability (33:45–35:13).
  • Japan forecasted to bring back key sectors, new tax policy, and to maintain a dovish stance on rates to avoid high-yield-induced shocks.

• Sector Implications:

  • Expected winners: defense, logistics, shipping — “industries coming back to Japan... [that] bypass pressure from China and the US” (36:48).

Notable Quote:

Yoshiko Yamaguchi [33:45]:
"The decisive win...paved way for her to reshape the Japanese economic and social structure which could cause conflict...But she probably could do it with a massive win."

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6. Crypto Slide & Asset Class Debate

Timestamps: 38:04–44:20

• Bitcoin Below $65K:

  • Tariffs, AI disruption, and “risk off” contagion to digital assets blamed for underperformance (38:49).
  • Joe Romeo: “There’s never been a time where more people are interested in crypto... to see the prices this low but the enthusiasm that high, it’s very strange” (39:31).

• Correlations & Institutional Impact:

  • Once uncorrelated, crypto’s now entwined with risk assets: “It is unfortunate because you would think...people would flee to an asset that ideally sets itself apart...But as it grows, [crypto and equities] are getting more correlated” (41:19).

• Case for Bitcoin:

  • Joe: “It’s the first time...there’s an alternative to your local currency...Crypto is a global institution that is not controlled by a government” (42:47).

• Bullish Behind the Scenes:

  • Despite price declines, both guests highlight surging infrastructure investment and regulatory progress: “There are other ways to play it...stablecoins, tokens, equities that you can be long...Robinhood is building on crypto” (43:31).

Notable Quotes:

Reeve Collins [42:21]:
"It’s similar to gold. That’s why we come back to digital gold...the similarity is the cultural coalescence around this as a concept and as something that serves a role in a portfolio."

Joe Romeo [42:47]:
"Crypto is a global institution that is not controlled by a government. So when you look at all of the risk in the world and all the turmoil, this is a nice thing to have that there is an alternative. There’s never been one before."

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7. Weight Loss Drug Stocks: Novo Nordisk Plunges

Timestamps: 44:24–46:29

• Novo’s Wipeout:
  • Novo Nordisk drops over 16% following weaker-than-hoped results for its new drug compared to Eli Lilly’s competing treatment.
  • Dan: “The market is saying, you know what? You probably should have never gotten into the weight loss space in the first place, and you’re not giving almost any value to the rest of their business... maybe today was a capitulation” (45:28–45:46).
  • Guy: “It just feels like Lilly is the one you keep on reloading on, the one you keep on betting on” (45:58).

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Highlight Timestamps for Reference

• [02:12] Dan Nathan: Market’s “pillars…being knocked out one by one”
• [04:40] Guy Adami: Market “a long way from crack to break”
• [10:09] Dan Nathan: “Walmart... one of the best at integrating AI”
• [14:58] Paul Horvath: “Private credit is not a monolith”
• [18:19] Paul Horvath: “I just don’t see a systemic risk now”
• [28:27] Guy Adami: Expedia “down about 40%...shows how fragile”
• [33:45] Yoshiko Yamaguchi: Takaichi’s reforms “could be enormous”
• [41:19] Joe Romeo: “Crypto and equities are getting more correlated”
• [42:47] Joe Romeo: “First time there’s really an alternative…not controlled by a government”

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Memorable Moments & Quotes

• Math on the Plane?
  Guy and Dan joke about doing math problems on flights and the pain of bagholders after bubble pops (05:19–05:29).

• Weather Humor:
  Dan: “It’s cold here, it’s freaking 50 degrees.” Mel: “I’ve got a blanket” (11:44–11:52).

• Jokes on Asset Prices:
  Dan, on Novo: “Maybe today was a capitulation, but it is amazing that...we’re not going to reward you for the rest of your business.” (45:28–45:46)

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Takeaways for Investors

• Widespread but Uneven Pain: Beneath relatively stable indices, specific sectors (software, banks, private credit, travel) are taking significant hits.
• Private Credit is Risky But Not Systemic: Softer positions are being punished, but experts see little risk of a crisis on par with 2008–09, particularly as banks remain dominant.
• Japan’s New Policy Era: The post-election Japanese market should see sector rotation, with self-sufficiency/defense and domestic consumer policies in focus.
• Crypto Growing Pains: Short-term price action is negative, but institutional adoption and regulatory clarity are bullish longer-term.
• Individual Stock Story: Standouts like Walmart and Eli Lilly show resilience; others, like Novo and software darlings, may be out of favor for now.

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Overall Tone

The panel keeps a rapid pace and injects both skepticism and optimism. They warn of mounting cracks, credit and liquidity risks, and sector disruption — but also identify opportunities (in Japan, blue-chip retail, better-positioned private credit, and infrastructure-backed crypto innovation). The mood blends market caution with a trader’s irreverent sense of humor and realism.

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For further actionable insights, tune in to future Fast Money episodes or visit fastmoney.cnbc.com.

Transcript

[Melissa Lee]

What does it mean to live a rich life? It means brave first leaps, tearful goodbyes and everything in between. With over 100 years experience navigating the ups and downs of the market and of life, your Edward Jones financial advisor will be there to help you move ahead with confidence. Because with all you've done to find your rich, we'll do all we can to help you keep enjoying it. EDWARD Jones Member, SIPC Few things are

[Mel]

as uplifting as the greatest moments in sports. And nothing brings us together quite like Team USA at the Olympic Winter Games. From NBCUniversal's iconic storytelling to the innovative technology across Xfinity and Peacock, Comcast brings

[Guy Adami]

the Olympic Games home to America, sharing

[Mel]

every moment with millions. When Team USA steps onto the world stage, we're not just watching, we're cheering together. This winter, we're all on the same. Team Comcast, proud partner of Team usa. Live from Miami beach at the Iconnections Global Alts conference. This is fast money. We are back after our Olympics break. I'm here with Dan Nathan and Gai Adami. We're sorry to all the curling fans who missed the sport, but we are back. Here's what's on tap this hour. Market shockwaves. From terrorists to credit concerns, there's no shortage of risk weighing on investors minds today. We'll break down the details and how it impacts your money and financial fallout. The private credit stocks leading the market losses today as the ripple effects from Blue Owl weigh on investors. We'll talk with one top investor about what's next for the sector. Plus, bitcoin breaks back below the 65,000 mark. Novo's latest trial results sends the stock to nearly five year lows. And we're tracking the fallout from the storm blanketing the northeast. The impact on airlines, energy and much more. But let's get right to it because we got a lot to talk about. Interesting markets. We haven't talked to you guys in a couple weeks.

[Dan Nathan]

Hold on. Before. Did you miss us? Be honest.

[Mel]

Of course I did.

[Dan Nathan]

Are you sure? Ish. Two weeks is a long time.

[Mel]

It is a long time. You have a lot to say, I bet.

[Dan Nathan]

Well, I always do. I'll say this, you know the software part of this equation started whilst we were still on television.

[Mel]

Yes.

[Dan Nathan]

What's happened over the last two weeks is all of a sudden credit is first and foremost on everybody's mind. Blue Owl will talk about crypto. Does not bounce at all. Now it's sort of making its way into the banking sector. And you have to ask Yourself. So the pillars of the market just being knocked out one by one. Yeah.

[Guy Adami]

You know, this is a theme we've been talking about, at least on this show for a while is like when you think about all the enthusiasm about this trade and it's been going on for a while and it's broadened out Right. Over the last couple of years or so, but some of the early leaders have stalled out.

[Mike Santoli]

Right.

[Guy Adami]

And what's going on on the disruption front, whether it's like the software thing, it's been my view that all of a sudden we have something that looks a little bit like the 2000 period when we had the dot com thing implode and then into the financial crisis. Because a lot of this build out has been financialized in a way that it was not in the late 90s. And it seems to be all converging at once. And the thing that struck me is that the S and P is down less than 2% from its all time highs. There's a level of complacency about this, but if you look under the hood, it's actually one of the sorts of periods that I can't remember where we've seen so much devastation in two or three really important parts of the market.

[Mel]

I mean you mentioned this in terms of sort of hitting the sectors. I mean IGV, the software ETF for a while it was able to hold around 80, you know, maybe 79. But today it broke. We're back at levels not seen since 2023 and now hitting the financials just seems like we're, we're going back at it.

[Dan Nathan]

Yeah.

[Mel]

And we're hitting even harder.

[Dan Nathan]

We're going deeper, you know, Microsoft obviously in the crack staff who is back in ec and I miss them all

[Mel]

by the way, by the way, to get to ec, that was a fe.

[Dan Nathan]

So kudos, kudos to them.

[Mel]

Yeah.

[Dan Nathan]

But if they could put up like a four or five year chart in Microsoft, you'll see where it levels. Basically we were three years ago. Microsoft over the last three years, despite the fact that made an all time high in the fall of last year, is right back where it was three years ago against a broader market. That's unwell. So you mentioned igv, but now you're seeing it obviously in the software name, Salesforce, Adobe. It's not just one name. So that is manifesting itself I think now across a swath of sectors, financials being one of them. There was this love affair with financials, but now it's sort of self. First ask Questions later. So that made its way from the private equity name, now it's making its way into the banks.

[Mel]

So do the markets overall crack. I mean, we had been able to maintain at the sort of at the index level, you know, very close to record highs. But we knock out financials, we. We knock on the door of industrials. I mean, all these different sectors.

[Guy Adami]

Well, it's a long way from the crack to the break.

[Dan Nathan]

Right.

[Guy Adami]

And we're seeing that right now as far as there's cracks all over the market. But I think it's important to note, and we've been talking about this, people have, you know, very short memories in the highs in 21 to the lows in 22. So stocks like Nvidia and Tesla and Metta and, you know, they lost Netflix to 77% on average of their value. I mean, think about it. So if we're looking at some of the poster children of this move over the last couple of years, Palantir is a great example. This stock has made no sense on a valuation basis on a revenue like, yeah, they're growing revenues 50% a year off a very low base. This stock's down 40% from its recent highs. And Guy, I know you can do a little math, right?

[Dan Nathan]

Math.

[Guy Adami]

Well, if you talk about, you know,

[Dan Nathan]

what I did on the plane. Yeah, math.

[Reeve Collins]

No, no.

[Dan Nathan]

Well, you know, I'm sorry, do we have time here, Sandy?

[Guy Adami]

No, we don't.

[Mel]

We haven't come all the way down to.

[Guy Adami]

I didn't get to my math problem.

[Dan Nathan]

I stare and I do math problems. I had anyway, back.

[Guy Adami]

So what I was saying is when Palantir was a $350 billion market cap company trading at 100 times sales or whatever the heck it was, when it comes 40% off the highs, it's erasing tons of market cap on all the way up. When it's up, you know, 1,000%, that sort of thing, it's gaining that. But if you are the last person to buy it and you were the person who buy it over the last six months, you're losing money. And there's a lot of market cap that's been clipped off the highs, right?

[Mel]

So you have a disruption and then you have tariff uncertainty. What happens here with the 15% tariffs now? Does anybody get a refund?

[Dan Nathan]

I mean, that's something I think we learned how to deal with in April of last year. But obviously the story continues to sort of manifest itself. But I think out of all the things we're talking about, listen, that's important. But I think it's less important than the other three or four. But I'll also say this, long before the tariffs in the Supreme Court, the VIX was telling a story. And you know, we've been gone for a couple of weeks, but we wake up today, you look the VIX traded up to 22 today. And I get it, it was a bad market day, but it was not a extraordinary market day. And the fact that the VIX is north of 21, I think it's been telling a story. Put on top of that the fact that crypto can't get out of its own way. I mean as we're probably sitting here, Bitcoin is 65,000 without any bounce since we left for the Olympics. And I think that is telling a story as well.

[Mel]

Well, we are here. But back at the Nasdaq marketsite we will find CNBC senior markets commentator Mike Santoli and my co anchor on Closing Bell overtime. Mike, thanks for holding down the Ford over there. What have you been looking at today?

[Mike Santoli]

Well it just to play off of all you've been talking about, the s and P500 six month chart or at least for the last four months is a picture of kind of indecision, you could call it tenacity, not buckling in the face of all of those kind of weakness in some bellwether areas. The 50 day moving average is now almost dead flat like over the last week or so. So that basically tells you you have these opposing currents holding the index. Still, I've been saying for weeks I think the market's lucky not to have had a broader pullback. On the other hand, something like 60% of all S and P stocks have been outperforming the index on the way up. At least coming into this week. One area I think you have to keep on a short leash is consumer cyclicals. Everyone's talking about tax refunds and how the consumer is very strong and you know, travel stocks are even doing great for a while. Well here you have, this is the equal weighted discretionary versus Staples and obviously Staples just roaring relative to, to the discretionary. And even on a one year basis now Staples have kind of nosed ahead. So that tells you a defensive story. And then finally Apple was strong today because guess why? It's the defensive name in Mega cap, Apple, Microsoft, 10 year, okay? For as much as they're different businesses, they've actually traveled together. You don't see divergences like this that last very long. Typically These are the OG, you know, kind of PC STU stocks from the 70s. That's when they were founded. And here you have Apple kind of plumbing new highs and, and you guys are talking about the weakness in Microsoft. I don't know how this resolves, but it is fascinating that you've kind of winnowed down just to a couple of stocks that seem safe to own. Best case scenario, Mel, this is some kind of a stealth correction. We're kind of bleeding some of the excesses out of the market and maybe it sets the scene for, for a firmer base to have been built. We'll see.

[Mel]

All right, Mike, thank you. See you tomorrow. Mike Santoli, how do you think it resolves?

[Guy Adami]

Well, here's the thing. It's going to be the economy that it resolves it one way or another, Right. So if you think about the labor market, it's been kind of weak. And I know there's a lot of enthusiasm about this tax return season, but when you counterbalance what's going on with the higher health care premiums, I'm not sure from a consumer standpoint you're going to get that sort of tailwind. And then also when you think about this, the lack of certainty now about the tariff situation, why are these companies coming out and saying, hey, I want to get some of that $175 billion back? Well, it's clear now that is considered a tax tariffs. Right. Let's be honest. If this is what a lot of the companies that had to bear this on the import front, and make no mistake about it also, they pass through a lot of this through to consumers. So the SCOTUS decision on Friday, you would think that'd be somewhat of a relief, but it really isn't in many ways. And we're right back to that uncertainty. And Guy just mentioned this before. Well, we learned to deal with that a little last spring, but here we are again, year over year, and I think it really is going to be a bit of a headwind here.

[Mel]

The concern to here is, you know, the average, the average tariff rate before this was 16% or so. When you put on 15% again for the next 150 days only, it goes to 13%. It's not that much of a difference. There's still the uncertainty about what happens after 150 days. We saw a lot of that uncertainty play out in the retail sector specifically. Mike was highlighting consumer discretionary stocks. Walmart, though, still continues to chug along.

[Dan Nathan]

Good for Walmart. And I think we've done a decent job. If Tim Seymour were here, Karen were here, we'd be talking about Walmart and the fact that, yeah, valuation is expensive. It's been expensive for a while, but you look over the last six or seven earnings report and they're one of the biggest companies and one of the best at sort of integrating AI and having it fall down to the bottom line and for them in the form of margins. But in terms of tariffs. I get it, I get that's the headline. But what should be the headline I think is some of the delinquency rates continue to sort of creep up in an unhealthy fashion. You know, people want to talk about the health of the consumer, which I totally get, but I'm not sure the health of the consumer is as robust as people want to make it out to be. And I think that's going to manifest it into a lot of these retail names that we just don't talk about.

[Guy Adami]

Yeah, and the other thing is we know that, you know, consumers are 2/3 of GDP, right? Well, we've heard a lot about what the AI infrastructure build has contributed to GDP growth over the last year or two. Look at a company like IBM. This was a darling just about a month ago. Okay, look at the performance of this stock. In what, three weeks the stock is down 30%. It looks like it just fell out

[Mel]

of bed just today. 13% on the latest cloud release.

[Guy Adami]

And so if all like, if investors are like running for the doors and some of the best performers right here, you know, you have to say to yourself, what sort of wealth effect are we going to have? Or a negative wealth effect if you start to see some of the biggest darlings that consumer retail investors are just piled into because they got rewarded to do it again and again.

[Dan Nathan]

Can I be. So Dan usually says he's happy. Dan. And can I beat silver linings Dan? Can I be silver linings guy?

[Mel]

Yeah, sure.

[Dan Nathan]

Because why not? We're down here. I mean it's cold here, it's freaking 50 degrees.

[Mel]

I've got a blanket. I mean that's.

[Dan Nathan]

Anyway, that's not what I want to talk about. You know, the other side of that argument is, was September 10th, I think if memory serves it, Oracle made that announcement and the Stock went up 30 something percent in a straight line. And everybody was championing the fact that, okay, I look at the tailwind it's going to create for software. So that was the tailwind side of the equation. Now we're in the headwind side of the equation. So my point is it was a clear overshoot in the fall of last Year. At what point is that a clear undershoot? Or have people realized that? Wait a second. Maybe. Maybe AI is becoming a software killer and it's making its way sector by sector.

[Mel]

Right? I meant how we were watching shares of JP Morgan after hours. The firm giving a company update after the close of shares were down over 4% during the regular session. CNBC's Leslie Picker has got all the details. Leslie.

[Leslie Picker]

Hey, Mel.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah.

[Leslie Picker]

J.P. morgan holding its shareholder update right now. And a key important metric to note. The firm did boost its 2026 expectations for firm wide net interest income to $104.5 billion from 103 billion. That's that profitability metric for loan making. JP Morgan also giving some color to its expense guidance, including plans to spend $19.8 billion on technology this year. That's up nearly 2 billion year over year. CFO Jeremy Barnum going through a Q and A right now, concluding his prepared remarks where he addressed this broader consternation over AI disintermediation and software and what he thinks that means for J.P. morgan. He said the firm's quote, exposure to the more vulnerable players in the broader software industry is quite small. And beyond that, the potential impact of AI disruption is obviously not limited to the software industry. So they continue to look across their whole portfolio to identify emerging risks. And of course one of the reasons for their large excess capital position, he says is to protect them from those types of potential disruptions. Barnum also speaking about the consumer and the K shaped economy and he said that from their lens on credit performance, they're noting a difference between high and low income segments, but it's not outside the pre pandemic range and that lower income consumers, quote, remain resilient. They're expecting this year's card net charge off rate to be 3.4%, which has been pretty stable. We're expecting to hear from Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon in about an hour's time.

[Mel]

All right, Leslie, thank you. Leslie Picker. Meanwhile, private credit fears growing on Wall Street. Shares of Blue owl dropping another 3% today, now down 15% just since Thursday. The company under pressure amid a liquidity crunch and its software exposure. Paul Horvath runs alternative asset manager Orchard Orchard Global. Excuse me. He joins us here in Miami Beach. Paul, great to have you with us.

[Paul Horvath]

Great to be here, I would say in toasty south beach, opposite of chilly.

[Mel]

What kind of chill has a Blue Owl sent through the industry, even when it comes to investors appetite for private credit?

[Paul Horvath]

Well, Melissa, it's a good question. You Know, private credit is a large, growing and important asset class. There's good reasons why it's grown to over 2 trillion in the last couple years. But like with all large and growing asset classes and important asset classes, private credit is not a monolith. You know, there's. There's good private credit and there's challenged private credit and. Well, at Orchard Global, what we're always trying to do is steer our investors towards the good and away from the stressed.

[Mel]

I'm sure when Blue Owl took on their software portfolio, they thought that that was good private credit and a lot of other firms as well. I'm wondering what you think of the quick turn in terms of sentiment, the view that software was once that cash cow, you know, recurring revenue kind of business, steady stream, perfect for private credit, and now it is the bane of private credit.

[Paul Horvath]

Well, yeah, I mean, look, I won't comment on other people's decisions, but that's one of the reasons when you talk about good versus not as good, we like to do at Orchard Global, asset heavy rather than asset light. So if that unexpected happens, because it always happens, you know, we can sell those machines or sell those assets and get our money back. As lenders, you know, we've always kind of strayed away from some of the more asset light, even if the cash flow is great or, you know, it's all the rage. We've always kind of. Because remember, in private credit or in credit, you don't need to pick the winners, you need to avoid the losers.

[Dan Nathan]

Paul, I'm not going to ask you to play stock market with individual names, but you know, JB Jamie Dimon in the fall talked about more than one cockroach. And I read a lot over the last week or so about Blue Owl and the correlations people are making from.08 and.09. And I'm not suggesting we're on the precipice of that, but people are quick to dismiss things when everybody wants to be optimistic and then fast to say, I wish I told me more about these types of things. Where are we thinking this whole cycle?

[Paul Horvath]

Well, first of all, I used to work for Jamie and I learned a long time ago that you don't want to, you better have a pretty good reason to disagree with them, you know, but there are differences between private credit and, you know, good versus not as good. And where we are, say, you know, 0809 back then there was a lot of systemic risk. You know, banks lending to banks lending to funds who leveraged by all kinds of three letter Things that it's important to just give context to the whole private credit conversation. Yes. As I said earlier, private credit has grown over the last 10 years from 500 billion to 2 trillion. And whenever something grows that quickly, you got to take a close look at it. But let's remember that one of the things that private credit is doing or trying to do is replace banks because they can't lend as much because they have capital constraints. Well, you know, the top banks like Jamie's, the top 30 banks in the world control $100 trillion in assets. All the banks in the world control $200 trillion in assets. And we're talking about $2 trillion, right?

[Mel]

Yeah.

[Paul Horvath]

So, you know, there are going to be winners and losers in private credit, but the systemic risk that would worry the regulators in 08 and 09, I just don't see a systemic risk. Now, speaking more broadly about some of the names that you've spoken, usually you're hearing me asking for less regulation. If your investors are like our investors, institutional, sophisticated, corporate pensions, state pensions, sovereign wealth with big teams who can analyze and understand the liquidity, or private credit is great, but it's not very liquid. The lack of liquidity, well, that's fine. Now, many are arguing that you should democratize that and bring it to high net worth in retail. And I understand the case for that. But when you do that, you want to have guardrails. So that's the one area where you'll hear me saying, you know what, to make sure that we, that those widows and orphans and high net worth are getting the same thing that the institutional investors are. That's where I would think the SEC and FINRA would want to make sure that they're, that they're really protecting the investor.

[Dan Nathan]

Yeah.

[Guy Adami]

So, Paul, is there an underlying bid for these assets? So, for instance, on Friday afternoon, Boaz Weinstein from Saba Capital made a bid with another private equity firm for some of the Blue Isle semi liquid assets and, you know, was well below Navy at 70 cents on the dollar. Does that give some folks like yourself, you know, a little confidence that there are buyers of these assets, or is that just way too low of a price?

[Paul Horvath]

You know, I'm not involved directly in that transaction, so I don't know whether it's the right price or not. But, you know, again, we're, we're in credit. You're looking at cash flows, you're looking at assets, you're looking at underlying. It's kind of different than equities, where you're hoping that A, B and C happens or venture where you're dreaming that X, Y and Z happens. You know, certainly the way that we look at credit and private credit and we do stay away from those asset light industries, but we say, okay, what are the cash flows? Are they going to continue if it all falls down? Are there some assets we can sell? And I'm sure that, you know, Bo is a smart guy. I'm sure that he would have done that math and you know, he's in this to make money. So if he's bidding it, he's probably bidding it 10 to 20 points lower than fair value. You know, I would if I were him. But again, headlines are made and people should look into this. But let's not throw the baby out with the bathwater. You know, one of the areas where we see great opportunity is in Europe and Europe as lenders. Now we're talking, not talking about equity, but I was just actually at the Munich security conference last week and what you see is Europe is a very different place than the US and we see great opportunities to do the type of stuff we do with those defensive companies, asset heavy companies, and we can get 1, 2, in some cases 300 basis points more return for a given amount of risk. So that's where we're focusing and we'll let Boaz and the others do the bottom fishing here in the U.S. paul,

[Mel]

great to see you. Thank you for stopping by.

[Paul Horvath]

Thanks so much.

[Mel]

Orchard. Interesting that he's calling for regulations. Interesting that you hear the discrepancy between valuations here in the United, in Europe because that also goes into equities.

[Guy Adami]

Listen, you know the asset heavy thing, and I'm not going to question Paul, but here's a great example. Coreweave, you know, Blue Owl couldn't unload, you know, like trillions or excuse me, billions of dollars to get a data center built. Now Corweave is telling us that the Lancaster, PA Data center is fund. There were no bids for that debt. And when you think about it, if you do have a slowdown in demand and Core Weave can't build out some of those data centers, then they're going to lose some of that backlog. And so to me, I think there's a lot of reverberations, especially if we see a slowdown in this build.

[Dan Nathan]

Oh, I'm sorry, Malms. I was going to thought we were going to break here what I was going to say, first of all, Paul's a great guest. He should come on again. I'll say this, you know he mentioned like banks lending to banks in 0809 and it's different this time. He's right. But look at what we have. This now you have the circular nature of these, all these different companies and video being in the middle of it. You know, OpenAI it's all right there. So it's not the same, but in a lot of ways it's eerily similar.

[Mel]

All right, coming up, we've got much more from the iConnections Global Alts Conference here in Miami beach, including a roadmap for investing in Japan, where our next guest sees the most opportunity in the land of the rising sun. Plus, millions of Americans slammed by the blizzard hitting the Northeast. How much longer will feel the impact and what it means for the travel trade? Don't go anywhere. Fast Money live from Miami beach is back in two.

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[Mel]

Welcome back to FAST money. Millions of Americans hit by heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions across the east coast. From New York City to Massachusetts, cities are seeing as much as two feet of snow. For the latest on the winter storm, let's bring in accuweather's Anna Azalien. Hi, Anna. Hi, Melissa.

[Anna Azalien]

Yeah, this has been a blockbuster storm. I mean, take a look at our top snow totals by state just in the last 24 hours here. The top 13ft of snow. That alone causes a lot of problems. And all of these reports more than 20 inches. The bottom one, Langhorne, Pennsylvania, there. I want to focus on some of the bigger cities because, no, they're not our top snow reports. But New York City, specifically at Central Park, 19 inches of snow. Philly got 14. Boston with 26. D.C. is the outlier here. But a lot of the east coast is going to be digging out from this for a couple of days. But the wind, it made things even worse. That's how we got to that blizzard criteria. All of these top wind reports more than 70 miles an hour. For some of us, the recovery starts now. For others, we're still dealing with the snow. Take a look at radar, especially New England. That's where it's still coming down. And I want to zoom in here for you because we do have some areas still getting some heavier snowfall. That's where you see the darker blue shading south of Boston, for example, on radar here earlier today. Some places got 3, 4, 5 inches of snow per hour. Yeah, that's the kind of situation plows just can't keep up with. Now even in New England, this is going to be winding down over the next couple of hours. About 8, 9pm that's when we're going to start to finally see the snowflakes calm down. But the impacts, especially when it comes to the airports, they're going to last even into tomorrow. We're forecasting 2,500 flight cancellations. That's out after yesterday and today combined, we saw more than 8,000 flights canceled. Melissa.

[Mel]

All right, Anna, thank you. Anna Azalien. And of course, the impact could be seen in the airline stocks today really taking a hit. And then a lot of the travel and leisure names in terms of the hotels also got a hit because of what is going on in Mexico in terms of tourists Being ordered to shelter in place in their hotels there because drug lords are being taken out on the streets. I mean that's frightening stuff.

[Dan Nathan]

It's frightening. So weather comes and goes. So we can deal with weather. Something like that though people get scared and you gotta believe that's gonna have a lasting effect in terms of travel not only to Mexico but potentially other places where people say, you know what, I'm a little scared now. I'll say people right now in terms of the airlines self first asked questions later. There's gonna be levels though where these get interesting. I'm looking at Delta, this 65, 66 level level that was a prior all time high. If you want to go back and look to, I think it was January of 2025. So this is the level where it should hold. But you start to break down here, the momentum is going to start take over like you've seen in some of these other sectors, Software specific.

[Guy Adami]

Yeah. If you broaden it out, I mean look at Expedia for instance. This was a stock again, I know that sound like a broken record here. That was trading an all time high. This was just a month ago. Right. And it's down about 40%. So you have AI disruption, then you have have all this stuff that we're talking about which makes you really kind of think about how fragile some of these stories are. And we're in a market right now model. That's right. And again, you know, like it's not an indictment of these business models. Expedia has been around for 25 years. It was, it's an amazing company. They pioneered something but now like when you're on the dawn of a new technology, I mean that's the thing that it doesn't take much to get these things going the opposite way or investors just really kind of shooting first, asking questions later.

[Mel]

Coming up, opportunities abroad. The playbook for investing in Japan as the Nikkei hovers around records where our next guest says the impact of the country snap election will be enormous. Past money is back from Miami beach straight ahead.

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[Mel]

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[Mel]

welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks selling off to start the week with investors digesting the latest tariff headlines from over the weekend. The Dow dropping more than 800 points. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 falling more than a percent. Shares of Domino's Pizza jumping 4% after reporting results this morning. The company beating US sales estimates thanks to higher order volumes and deals that impacted that helped attract budget conscious consumers. Shares of Google meantime lower today despite an upgrade from Wells Fargo analysts putting an overweight rating on the stock and upping the price target to 387 from 354, citing leadership in customer data distribution and compute capacity. And some after hours action to tell you about Diamondback Energy lower after missing earnings estimates. Hims and hers lower after coming up short on revenue but posting better than expected full year sales guidance and Whirlpool moving lower right now the company is launching a public offering in an effort to deleverage and make strategic investments. The company says it expects proceeds from the offering to be $800 million and move comes after Whirlpool reported that sales fell in the the fourth quarter due to decreased volumes in the Americas. Shares down about 6% right now.

[Dan Nathan]

Yeah, this is the wrong time. Well I'll go to Google but quickly about Whirlpool. This is, this is not the ideal time to be doing a secondary but okay, be that as it may, Google's the one I want to talk about and I get the upgrade. You have to believe that you're going to get mult continued multiple expansion at this point because and we talked about this last year. I think the fact that you put a 30 multiple on the $11.50 or so and you you could see the stock being, you know, $335, 340. That's where it got to the problem now is the valuation cushion you had six months ago you don't have now. So six to nine months out, you're saying you want to play that game. I get it. But in the environment when right now it feels tenuous at best in Google.

[Mel]

Coming up, the turning point for Japanese investing. What our next guest sees in store for the country after its snap elections and the impact it'll have on equities overseas. Plus the fallout from the latest crypto downturn as bitcoin drops below 65k. Why the slide isn't stopping. Our next guest bull thesis. More on all of that when Fast Money live from Miami beach returns back into. Welcome back to fast money. Japanese markets were closed today, but the Nikkei within 2% of records hit earlier this month. Following Prime Minister Sanay take snap election win. While the decisive victory is expected to boost take his domestic growth agenda, Japan's economic situation could be complicated by President Trump's latest tariff hike. For more on what is next for Japanese investors and Japan investors, I should say let's bring in Yoshiko Yamaguchi, founder of Soya Japan Research and Consulting. Yoshiko, great to have you with us. What do you think the tariff uncertainty will do to Japan?

[Melissa Lee]

First of all, thank you for having me here. So honored to be here. Well, you mentioned about complicated relationship. Actually the Japan US Interest aligned right now. So it's probably simpler than you think in terms of the implication for the snap election. It's going to be enormous. So the decisive wing of the standard Taka Ichi paved way for her to reshape the Japanese economic and social structure which could cause conflict with existing structure. Stakeholder is like elderly people, large cap company and also the dual clad elite. But she probably could do it with a massive win or economic point. She already talked about 17th growth sector and some people talking about 17th forecast is too many. But you have to think about this way. She wants to bring back some key area back to Japan such as strategic security defense area and making Japan possible in the future. Secondly, she want to make sure people improve their affordability. Affordability is very big issue in Japan and that's key her focus. She's still trying to stop suspend two years consumption tax on the food and following that she want to introduce new tax refundable credit system. So that probably could move change their consumer confidence before the week Glad you're here.

[Dan Nathan]

This is interesting. So we've been talking about the Japanese bond market has seen historic volatility I mean the moves in a daily basis 1015 basis points. On the flip side the currency has been weakening 154 sort of no man's land but as we approach 160 something's got to give like in my opinion you can't have Japanese yields continue to go higher and a currency to continue to weaken. Where is the line in the sand in dollar yen in your opinion? 160 seems to be it Great point

[Melissa Lee]

that's actually addressed by the US government back in January the end of January remember January 29th US treasury coming in we can't take the volatility and then Takaichi government they understood so going forward I think we passed a high volatile frame already going forward probably the bond and the folks probably staying less volatile going forward but that said Takahichi government doesn't want to have a high yield and I have opportunity to listen to the BOJ official last week and they mentioned about current situation is something like you driving unfamiliar place without accurate GPS. So normalization in new normal so they don't want to drive too fast. So it could be a little bit dovish normalization. So currently market expect rate hike in April June horizon but it might be happening that could probably bring a little more volatility that timeline but long term intermediate time I think we passed the highest volatility part.

[Mel]

So given all these catalysts where do you see how much more upside does the Nikkei have and which sectors could see the most benefit benefit from a

[Melissa Lee]

lot of these reforms the ones who can bypass the pressure from China and the economic trade challenge situation with us. So any industry coming back to Japan or security defense industry standpoint such as the cable industry or shipping industry could the beneficiary but we definitely seen the reshuffle from previous year. We've seen the big winners in AI data and 30 years or large exporting companies but probably picture is a little bit different and then different from sector to sector.

[Mel]

Yoshiko, great to have you with us. Thanks for stopping by. Yoshiki Yamaguchi of SOYA so guy, what's your. You've been talking about Japan for a long time.

[Dan Nathan]

Yeah and I've been talking about it and things have been playing out but it does not manifest itself in our markets whatsoever. Obviously our bond market's been pretty pretty tame I mean 10 year yields now the lowest level we've seen in a while My Concern has been the bond volatility there will make its way here. It hasn't happened.

[Guy Adami]

You know, I wonder with rates going higher there, you have an unwind a little bit of that carry trade. Right. And so what are they buying? They were buying, you know, long duration assets that were moving higher. This is a lot of US tech stocks, that sort of thing. And you know, maybe that's adding a little bit of fuel to the fire over the last couple of months or so as these stocks here have underperformed.

[Mel]

Coming up, crypto slide back in effect. Bitcoin below $65,000 while your next guests are still bullish and see the space as a trader's market when Fast Money in Miami beach returns. Welcome back to Fast Money live from the Iconnections Global Alts conference in Miami Beach. Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and Ethereum sliding today as President Trump announced plans to raise global tariffs. Joining us to now to discuss where crypto heads from here is Reeve Collins of STBL and Joe Romeo of Galaxy Digital. Great to have you guys. Especially as we witness a slide that is happening despite all of the tailwinds in the crypto space. What do you make of what is going on?

[Reeve Collins]

Yes, I think there's, there's a couple of things going on in the backdrop here. There's obviously geopolitical uncertainty with tariffs which drives a risk off mood. But there's a broader theme around AI disruption which is hurting the digital economy. You're seeing it in software assets. Assets, you're seeing a risk contagion across everything digital versus everything physical. And Bitcoin has been exposed to that risk off.

[Mel]

The role of crypto treasury companies. How does that play into if at all into this decline here? And is there a floor of some sort? People are saying oh there's got to be a floor at 60 because that's, you know, I don't know. Can there be a floor?

[Joe Romeo]

Well, let's hope there is. But you know, that's prices we don't know. We never know the market markets. But what's interesting at this particular time is there's never been a time where more people are interested in crypto. Governments and institutions into the technology and into implementing it. And then to see the prices this low but the enthusiasm that high, it's very strange. And I think he hit the nail on the head. It's just global uncertainty that's driving everything down.

[Dan Nathan]

How do you play the valuation game? The way that I'll look at this and the way that people talk about gold is probably now north of 20 trillion or probably more than that at this point. But let's use 20 trillion as a barometer and people will say that crypto should at least be what percentage of gold. Some people say it should surpass it, other people say half. Is that valid? Because just to sort of lick your finger and put it in the air and say it should be this, that to me is a little ridiculous.

[Reeve Collins]

Yeah, I think there's. Look, we have to keep two things in mind. There's a long term generational adoption trend here where we should expect Bitcoin to close the gap with gold. I agree. We can't put our finger in the air and we can't use that as a short term price target. The other side of the equation, what Reeve alluded to is the infrastructure build in crypto and it's actually impressive how much the infrastructure adoption is accelerating in stablecoins in tokenization markets despite the price action. So I think we have to keep both of these concepts in our head.

[Guy Adami]

Joe just mentioned the correlation risk off. Right. And we're seeing that is like, you know, NASDAQ stocks have taken a dip and you see many of the Software names down 30, 40%. And here you go, Bitcoin's been cut in half. How do you think about those correlations? Because one of the real interesting attributes of this asset going back 10 years was there were no correlations to that. It was one of the things that was really interesting to buy on a relative basis, given, I guess, the beta that it had.

[Joe Romeo]

Yes, but now that it's such a larger industry and there's more money, especially in the institutions and in the traditional finance invested in crypto. So I think that has added a little bit of correlation. It is unfortunate because you would think when the markets are going down, people would kind of flee to an asset that ideally sets itself apart from the traditional institutions. But I think as it grows, they are getting more correlated. But over time, when the technology really takes off and institutions lean into it, and actually the money that's sitting on the sidelines, that flows into cryptocurrency, that's when we'll see a real difference because it'll be an entirely new sector.

[Mel]

I'm going to ask you something maybe crazy, but why should Bitcoin specifically exist? I mean, if Ethereum and Solana are the cryptos of contracts and financial transactions, etc. Bitcoin is not being used right now for transactions. It, it doesn't hold its value. It's correlated now. So what's the point of investing in bitcoin. What are you investing in?

[Reeve Collins]

Yeah, it's a big question. It's similar to gold. Right. That's why we come back to digital gold.

[Mel]

It's not, it's cutting. I mean, look at the decline.

[Reeve Collins]

I'll share with you, the similarity is the cultural coalescence around this as a concept and as something that serves a role in a portfolio. And it serves that role for younger investors. And it's exhibited a higher base, which is is declining over time.

[Joe Romeo]

And I think also it's the first time that there's an alternative to your local currency or to your local financial institutions. Crypto is a global institution that is not controlled by a government. So when you look at all of the risk in the world and all the turmoil, this is a nice thing to have that there is an alternative. There's never been one before.

[Reeve Collins]

Also, Sam, Alyssa, we do go through these cycles where it always feels pretty bad in the winters, the downturns. And as Mike Novogratz, our founder, said, it's been pretty frosty out there recently.

[Mel]

Over the past winters, the regulatory environment hasn't been more favorable than this one. I mean, we have everything going for crypto and bitcoin now that you've ever asked for in the industry, except for price appreciation.

[Reeve Collins]

That's right. Price has been the disappointing factor. There are other ways to put play it though, Right. So as institutions are adopting things like stablecoins and tokens, you see lots of equities that you can be long. So what we're doing is launching a long, short equity hedge fund. There's different ways to play the space. Right. Robinhood is building on crypto. They're launching all kinds of products for the next gen. They're integrating prediction markets. So there's different cash flow bets you can now make on the crypto infrastructure that's different than just a price bet at this moment.

[Joe Romeo]

Absolutely.

[Mel]

Last word, Reef.

[Joe Romeo]

And that's the beauty about crypto, when you're saying that we have the ability to do something completely different. And the regulations now are finally in our, in our favor, meaning the institutions and governments are leaning in and those trillions of dollars that were on the sidelines are going to flow into this infrastructure.

[Mel]

All right, Reeve and Joe, thank you so much for joining us. We do appreciate it.

[Joe Romeo]

Thank you.

[Mel]

Coming up in Novo, nose dive, the latest results sinking that stock and how its chief competitor is edging ahead in the weight loss drug race. We'll explain when Fast Money live in Miami beach returns. Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares in Novo Nordisk plunging over 16% today following new data on the company's next gen weight loss shot, Kagar Sema. Even though patients lost an average 23% of their body weight after 84 weeks. That fell short of weight loss for patients taking Eli Lilly's Tirzepatide over the same time frame. NovaShares trading at their lowest levels in almost five years.

[Dan Nathan]

You said that for emphasis.

[Mel]

Yes, because it's as if it never entered the weight loss drug space.

[Dan Nathan]

And, you know, I saw Jared Holtz today. If he's watching, he should be on this show. He's cheating.

[Mel]

He was on earlier. I did see that, too.

[Dan Nathan]

What's going on here is the market is saying, you know what? You probably should have never gotten into the weight loss space in the first place. And you're not not giving almost any value to the rest of their business. Yes, those are helicopters flying overhead here. A little quick one. The helicopters overhead during your other show,

[Mel]

the men's hockey team was landing in Miami. Landing in Miami.

[Dan Nathan]

That's my way of not talking about my junk, because Novo is the end of my junk. I look at this and say, oh, my God. Trading 90 million shares today, it's about four times normal volume. Maybe today was a capitulation, but it is amazing that they're saying, you know what?

[Paul Horvath]

What?

[Dan Nathan]

You should have never gotten into business, and we're not going to reward you for the rest of your business.

[Mel]

We should note that there's going to be another readout on cagrosema with the maximum dosage. So this was sort of the medium dosage. So there could be more ups, there could be upside here.

[Guy Adami]

It's really interesting. I don't think there's been a headline at Inovo in a couple of years that's actually hit Eli Lilly. So if you think about that, you know, Eli Lilly trades so well, and all of a sudden, you know, we were talking about for two years, the valuation, Eli Lilly, how rich it was. They're expected at 40% earnings growth this year and 24% sales growth. And it trades at 31 times this year and 25 times next. So that's not far above a market multiple right now in next year. So it just feels like Lilly is the one you keep on reloading on, the one you keep on betting on.

[Mel]

All right, up next, final trades. We will be back here live in Miami beach Tomorrow for day two of the iConnections Global Alts conference. Do not miss interviews with Arnold Ventures. John Arnold on the rise in sports betting and prediction markets as well as big short traders Danny Moses and Vincent Daniel on what they are seeing in the markets. A packed two hours of closing Bell Overtime and Fast Money that starts 4pm Eastern time. Big, big shows ahead. Time for the final trade. Meantime.

[Guy Adami]

Dan yeah, Eli lilly is about 20% above its 2 to day moving average. That's the widest gap since this whole GLP1 thing started. I think this is a buy on pullbacks, but not right here.

[Dan Nathan]

We got the staff here is unbelievable. These guys are killing it and they're all shivering. We'll have space heaters tomorrow. I mean GDX hanging in like a champ.

[Mel]

Melissa Lee all right, thanks for watching Fast Money Mad Money with Jim Cramer starts right now.

[Melissa Lee]

All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer Finding the music

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