Podcast Summary: CNBC Fast Money – "Tariffs, Banks & Private Credit Jitters… And Crypto Below $65K"

Air Date: February 23, 2026
Location: Live from Miami Beach at the iConnections Global Alts Conference
Host: Melissa Lee
Panel: Dan Nathan, Guy Adami, Mike Santoli (remote), plus special guests Paul Horvath (Orchard Global), Yoshiko Yamaguchi (Soya Japan Research), Reeve Collins (STBL), Joe Romeo (Galaxy Digital)

Episode Overview

The panel returns from a two-week Olympics break to dissect an increasingly turbulent market landscape, focusing on sector-specific crackups, persistent credit concerns, and renewed trade/tariff uncertainty. The episode highlights mounting risks for investors — especially in private credit and software stocks — and examines why crypto and banks continue to struggle. The team also covers the fallout from a major Northeast blizzard, explores Japanese investing post-election, and investigates the sharp declines in weight loss drug stocks. Throughout, the tone is candid, fast-paced, and occasionally irreverent, with traders providing actionable insights and context for institutional and retail investors alike.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Sector Crack-ups and Market Complacency

Timestamps: 00:47–06:48

• Credit and Software Weakness:

  • Dan Nathan notes that “credit is first and foremost on everybody’s mind... Blue Owl, crypto doesn’t bounce at all, now [the trouble is] making its way into the banking sector” (02:12).
  • Guy Adami draws parallels to past crises: “It looks a little bit like the 2000 period... [but] a lot of this build out has been financialized in a way that it was not in the late 90s. And it seems to be all converging at once” (02:41).
  • Despite these issues, the S&P is down less than 2% from all-time highs, which Guy calls “a level of complacency” (02:57).

• Software and Financials Hit:

  • Melissa Lee observes the software ETF IGV “broke ... back at levels not seen since 2023 and now hitting the financials” (03:21).
  • Multiple software leaders (Microsoft, Salesforce, Adobe) reverting to multi-year lows; even Microsoft "right back where it was three years ago" (03:51–04:26).

• Market Leadership Rotation:

  • Guy recalls that poster children like Nvidia, Tesla, and Meta lost on average 70%+ during the recent swoon; “Palantir... down 40% from its recent highs” (04:40–05:17).
  • Dan points out how bubbles deflate: “If you are the last person to buy it... you’re losing money” (05:29).

Notable Quote:

Guy Adami [02:57]:
"There's a level of complacency about this, but if you look under the hood, it's actually one of the sorts of periods that I can't remember where we've seen so much devastation in two or three really important parts of the market."

2. Tariffs & Policy Uncertainty

Timestamps: 05:56–10:52

• Tariff Fallout:
  • New 15% tariffs for 150 days; Supreme Court decision offers little relief.
  • Dan: “The average tariff rate before this was 16%...with 15% again for the next 150 days...uncertainty about what happens after” (09:45).
  • Walmart is a rare retail winner, buoyed by strong execution and AI integration, but broader concern remains for retail due to creeping delinquency rates and shakier consumer fundamentals (10:09–10:52).

3. Private Credit and Blue Owl’s Contagion

Timestamps: 12:28–22:54

• Blue Owl’s Ripples:

  • Blue Owl’s stock is down 15% in days over liquidity concerns, hitting the wider private credit sector (14:22).
  • Guest Paul Horvath (Orchard Global) stresses that private credit isn’t homogeneous: “There’s good private credit and there’s challenged private credit... steer our investors towards the good and away from the stressed” (14:58).

• Asset-Heavy vs. Asset-Light:

  • Paul: “We like to do... asset heavy rather than asset light... If that unexpected happens... we can sell those machines or sell those assets and get our money back... In credit, you don’t need to pick the winners, you need to avoid the losers” (15:58).

• Is This 2008 Redux?

  • Paul downplays systemic risk: “Systemic risk that worried the regulators in 08 and 09, I just don’t see... Private credit is $2 trillion; banks control $200 trillion in assets” (18:19).

• Bid for Distressed Assets:

  • On recent 70-cent-on-the-dollar bids for Blue Owl assets: “Headlines are made and people should look into this. But let’s not throw the baby out with the bathwater... we see great opportunity in Europe” (20:00).

Notable Quote:

Paul Horvath [18:19]:
"There are going to be winners and losers in private credit, but the systemic risk that would worry the regulators in 08 and 09, I just don’t see [that risk] now."

4. Weather and Travel Ripple Effects

Timestamps: 25:36–29:08

• Northeast Blizzard:
  • Historic snowfall and winds, with major cities crippled; 8,000+ flights canceled (25:36–27:28).
• Travel & Leisure Hit:
  • Airline and hotel stocks slide due to weather and wider unrest (notably, violence in Mexico also impacting travel sentiment).
  • Guy: “Look at Expedia...down about 40%. So you have AI disruption, then you have all this stuff...make you really kind of think about how fragile some of these stories are” (28:27).

5. Japan’s Post-Election Opportunity

Timestamps: 32:44–37:29

• Election Aftermath & Policy Agenda:

  • Guest Yoshiko Yamaguchi highlights how new PM Takaichi’s win gives mandate for major reforms, including a focus on strategic industries, defense, and improving consumer affordability (33:45–35:13).
  • Japan forecasted to bring back key sectors, new tax policy, and to maintain a dovish stance on rates to avoid high-yield-induced shocks.

• Sector Implications:

  • Expected winners: defense, logistics, shipping — “industries coming back to Japan... [that] bypass pressure from China and the US” (36:48).

Notable Quote:

Yoshiko Yamaguchi [33:45]:
"The decisive win...paved way for her to reshape the Japanese economic and social structure which could cause conflict...But she probably could do it with a massive win."

6. Crypto Slide & Asset Class Debate

Timestamps: 38:04–44:20

• Bitcoin Below $65K:

  • Tariffs, AI disruption, and “risk off” contagion to digital assets blamed for underperformance (38:49).
  • Joe Romeo: “There’s never been a time where more people are interested in crypto... to see the prices this low but the enthusiasm that high, it’s very strange” (39:31).

• Correlations & Institutional Impact:

  • Once uncorrelated, crypto’s now entwined with risk assets: “It is unfortunate because you would think...people would flee to an asset that ideally sets itself apart...But as it grows, [crypto and equities] are getting more correlated” (41:19).

• Case for Bitcoin:

  • Joe: “It’s the first time...there’s an alternative to your local currency...Crypto is a global institution that is not controlled by a government” (42:47).

• Bullish Behind the Scenes:

  • Despite price declines, both guests highlight surging infrastructure investment and regulatory progress: “There are other ways to play it...stablecoins, tokens, equities that you can be long...Robinhood is building on crypto” (43:31).

Notable Quotes:

Reeve Collins [42:21]:
"It’s similar to gold. That’s why we come back to digital gold...the similarity is the cultural coalescence around this as a concept and as something that serves a role in a portfolio."

Joe Romeo [42:47]:
"Crypto is a global institution that is not controlled by a government. So when you look at all of the risk in the world and all the turmoil, this is a nice thing to have that there is an alternative. There’s never been one before."

7. Weight Loss Drug Stocks: Novo Nordisk Plunges

Timestamps: 44:24–46:29

• Novo’s Wipeout:
  • Novo Nordisk drops over 16% following weaker-than-hoped results for its new drug compared to Eli Lilly’s competing treatment.
  • Dan: “The market is saying, you know what? You probably should have never gotten into the weight loss space in the first place, and you’re not giving almost any value to the rest of their business... maybe today was a capitulation” (45:28–45:46).
  • Guy: “It just feels like Lilly is the one you keep on reloading on, the one you keep on betting on” (45:58).

Highlight Timestamps for Reference

• [02:12] Dan Nathan: Market’s “pillars…being knocked out one by one”
• [04:40] Guy Adami: Market “a long way from crack to break”
• [10:09] Dan Nathan: “Walmart... one of the best at integrating AI”
• [14:58] Paul Horvath: “Private credit is not a monolith”
• [18:19] Paul Horvath: “I just don’t see a systemic risk now”
• [28:27] Guy Adami: Expedia “down about 40%...shows how fragile”
• [33:45] Yoshiko Yamaguchi: Takaichi’s reforms “could be enormous”
• [41:19] Joe Romeo: “Crypto and equities are getting more correlated”
• [42:47] Joe Romeo: “First time there’s really an alternative…not controlled by a government”

Memorable Moments & Quotes

• Math on the Plane?
  Guy and Dan joke about doing math problems on flights and the pain of bagholders after bubble pops (05:19–05:29).

• Weather Humor:
  Dan: “It’s cold here, it’s freaking 50 degrees.” Mel: “I’ve got a blanket” (11:44–11:52).

• Jokes on Asset Prices:
  Dan, on Novo: “Maybe today was a capitulation, but it is amazing that...we’re not going to reward you for the rest of your business.” (45:28–45:46)

Takeaways for Investors

• Widespread but Uneven Pain: Beneath relatively stable indices, specific sectors (software, banks, private credit, travel) are taking significant hits.
• Private Credit is Risky But Not Systemic: Softer positions are being punished, but experts see little risk of a crisis on par with 2008–09, particularly as banks remain dominant.
• Japan’s New Policy Era: The post-election Japanese market should see sector rotation, with self-sufficiency/defense and domestic consumer policies in focus.
• Crypto Growing Pains: Short-term price action is negative, but institutional adoption and regulatory clarity are bullish longer-term.
• Individual Stock Story: Standouts like Walmart and Eli Lilly show resilience; others, like Novo and software darlings, may be out of favor for now.

Overall Tone

The panel keeps a rapid pace and injects both skepticism and optimism. They warn of mounting cracks, credit and liquidity risks, and sector disruption — but also identify opportunities (in Japan, blue-chip retail, better-positioned private credit, and infrastructure-backed crypto innovation). The mood blends market caution with a trader’s irreverent sense of humor and realism.

For further actionable insights, tune in to future Fast Money episodes or visit fastmoney.cnbc.com.