Tariffs Crush Global Markets… And Volatility Swings Ahead Of Tomorrow’s Jobs Report 4/3/25

Summary

Detailed Summary of CNBC's "Fast Money" Episode: "Tariffs Crush Global Markets… And Volatility Swings Ahead Of Tomorrow’s Jobs Report" (April 3, 2025)

Introduction and Market Overview

Hosted by Melissa Lee, CNBC's "Fast Money" delves into the significant market upheaval triggered by President Trump's aggressive tariff announcements. The episode, aired live from the NASDAQ MarketSite in Times Square, offers an in-depth analysis of the resultant global market sell-off, the looming volatility ahead of the critical jobs report, and strategic insights from top traders and financial experts.

1. Market Reaction to Tariffs

The episode begins with a stark portrayal of the market's response to the new tariff measures introduced by President Trump. The key indices experienced their worst days since the onset of the pandemic:

• S&P 500: Dropped nearly 5%, marking its largest decline since June 2020.
• NASDAQ: Fell almost 6%, the steepest drop since early August 2020.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Shed close to 1,700 points, ranking as the fifth-largest point drop on record.
• Russell 2000: Sunk 6.5%, becoming the first major index to enter a bear market, declining over 22% from its record high.

Melissa Lee summarizes the situation:

[02:59] Melissa Lee: "Tariff tantrum, a major sell-off the day after President Trump shocked the world with his trade announcement that was more extreme than feared."

2. Sector-Specific Impacts

The tariff announcements disproportionately affected several sectors:

• Consumer Stocks: Hardest hit with companies like Restoration Hardware (RH) plummeting 40% post-earnings, Kohl’s down over 22%, and Gap, Nike, and Lululemon following suit.

  • Notable Quote:

    [25:03] Courtney Reagan: "RH at 40% of its value. Gap, Nike, Lululemon, all following suit."

• Energy Sector: The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) witnessed its worst day in nearly three years, dragged down by double-digit losses in major players like APA, Valero, Phillips 66, and Marathon Petroleum.

• Big Tech: Apple experienced a 9% decline, its worst day since March 2020, while Amazon had its lowest performance since April 2022. The combined losses of the Magnificent Seven amounted to a staggering $1 trillion in market capitalization.

• Financials: Goldman Sachs saw a 9% decline, erasing 230 points from the Dow.

3. Expert Analysis on Tariffs and Economic Outlook

Several experts provide nuanced perspectives on the tariff-induced chaos:

• Tim Seymour [03:35] expresses caution:

  "Not great, Mel, but I think we're going to talk about the VIX, we're going to talk about market dynamics later on in the show..."

• Julie Beal [05:46] highlights corporate paralysis:

  "What I really worry about more than anything is just the level of paralysis that most companies are facing in terms of CapEx investments..."

• Steve Grasso [06:49] discusses the abrupt implementation of tariffs:

  "This is essentially enacted on the back of an executive order as opposed to going through a much more protracted congressional process..."

• David Zervos [08:30] probes the effectiveness of trade deficits:

  "There's the $1.2 trillion trade deficit. Do we do nothing about it? Because there's no wrong answers, right?"

• Richard Fisher [14:10] offers a long-term optimistic view:

  "I think there's a silver lining under all this that's positive. We have a real chance of getting a more cooperative, fairer trading outcome..."

4. Retail Sector Under Siege

The retail sector faced severe disruptions due to higher costs and supply chain uncertainties:

• Cotmumer Staples ETF (XLP) dropped 8%, marking its worst day in nearly three years.

• Restoration Hardware (RH) fell 40% after a disappointing quarter and heavy exposure to tariff-imposed manufacturing countries.

• Companies like Wayfair, Victoria’s Secret, and VF Corp. saw their stocks tumble by over 20%.

Courtney Reagan [25:03]:

"The new tariff policy is being described as, quote, a nightmare come true."

Julie Beal [29:47]:

"What types of quality businesses do I have? Am I well positioned?"

5. Volatility Analysis

The episode extensively covers the spike in market volatility:

• VIX Index surged to approximately 30, close to the 30 level, signaling heightened fear in the markets.

• Mandy Hsu [41:36] from CBOE explains:

  "The VIX was probably more contained today because investor focus was actually really idiosyncratic... suggesting that people are still looking at from an earnings and fundamental perspective rather than macro fears."

• David Zervos [46:19] warns about credit spread widening:

  "Credit spreads widening is the part that really I'd be careful on."

6. Fed's Policy Response and Economic Implications

Discussions with former Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher and Mandy Hsu delve into the Federal Reserve's stance amid the tariff turmoil:

• Richard Fisher [34:44]:

  "Tariffs are indeed a tax. It will put price pressure on consumers as businesses struggle to protect their margins with increasing costs."

• Mandy Hsu [39:21]:

  "The Federal Reserve only controls the yield curve out to one year. From then on, it's about operating businesses and their dependencies."

• Julie Beal [40:22]:

  "If we do have a negative jobs report before the tariffs, that is problematic... the consumer spending aspect is so important."

7. Global Market Reactions

The global markets mirrored the turmoil seen in the U.S.:

• Europe's STOXX 600 declined over 2.5%, with Germany dropping 3%.

• China's Hang Seng Index fell 1.5%.

• Mexico ETF (EWW) soared, achieving its best day since June, while Canada saw a decline of more than 2%.

Tim Seymour [48:06]:

"If the dollar is going lower again, you've got a buffer when you're investing in foreign markets..."

8. Investment Strategies Amid Uncertainty

Panelists discuss strategies for navigating the volatile landscape:

• Courtney Reagan [27:03]: Highlights divergence within the consumer sector:

  "Dollar General up almost 5%. Dollar Tree down more than 13%."

• Steve Grasso [29:18]: Suggests opportunities within chaos:

  "You've got to kind of keep your mettle in kind of pick through things... look at credit card heavy companies like Visa."

• David Zervos [30:56]: Recommends strength-based retailers:

  "Look at retailers like Costco, Wal-Mart where they can negotiate prices better."

• Final Trades Section [49:19]:

  • Julie Beal: "Thinking local and highly specialized."
  • Tim Seymour: Recommends Staples play with EU food exposure and companies like Unilever.
  • David Zervos: Shares personal investment in EV maker Lucid.

9. Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Tim Seymour [03:35]: "We've done a lot of damage in a short amount of time. So the velocity of the move is part of what's going on here."

• Julie Beal [05:46]: "If you had a landlord that said, I'm so sorry, but you're going to have to move out in the next three months, and then came back to you a week later and said, just kidding..."

• Richard Fisher [34:44]: "Consumers are going to pay the price. And one of the meetings I had was With Rolls Royce."

• Mandy Hsu [41:36]: "The VIX was probably more contained today because investor focus was actually really idiosyncratic."

10. Upcoming Events and Final Thoughts

The show concludes by emphasizing the importance of the forthcoming jobs report scheduled for the next day, which is expected to be a key indicator of the economy's resilience amid the ongoing tariff-induced turmoil.

Melissa Lee [50:05]:

"Participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal."

Conclusion

This episode of "Fast Money" provides a comprehensive breakdown of the immediate and potential long-term effects of President Trump's tariff policies on global markets. Through expert analyses, sector-specific impacts, and strategic investment discussions, viewers gain valuable insights into navigating the current economic turbulence. The looming jobs report remains a critical focal point for gauging the market's direction, signaling that the interplay between policy decisions and economic indicators will continue to shape investor sentiment in the weeks to come.

Transcript

[Melissa Lee]

Say you've always wanted to take a.

[Tim Seymour]

Spontaneous trip to the Caribbean. Here's the thing. If you get smart with your money, you can do things like that. With Empower, you can start making the.

[Melissa Lee]

Most out of your money so you.

[Tim Seymour]

Can get out and live a little.

[Melissa Lee]

Isn't that why we work so hard.

[Tim Seymour]

To have some fun with our money, like treating yourself to something special or.

[Melissa Lee]

Spontaneously doing something extra for a loved one?

[Tim Seymour]

So use Empower and get good at money so you can be a little bad. Join their 19 million customers [e-mail] not.

[Melissa Lee]

An empowered client, paid or sponsored.

[Courtney Reagan]

What counts most to you? Maybe it's spending more time with the ones you love. Or maybe doing more of what you love to do. The key to being rich is knowing what counts. At Edward Jones, our dedicated financial advisors are people you can count on for financial strategies to help support what truly matters to you. Let's find your rich Edward Jones Member.

[Melissa Lee]

Sipc Live from the NASDAQ marketsite in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Tariff tantrum, a major sell off the day after President Trump shocked the world with his trade announcement that was more extreme than feared. The S and p dropping nearly 5%. The Nasdaq losing almost 6%. The Dow dropping close to 1700 points. We'll go inside the numbers and look ahead to tomorrow's incredibly important jobs report straight ahead. Plus, a retail wreck from the stomach churning drop in rh, the massive slide in target. How much further could these names drop and when could they be looking like a buy? We'll debate that. And later, what's the Fed's next move? We'll ask former Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher. Should investors get ready for a big surge in volatility? And will Tim's mega make a traditional great again trade keep climbing higher? I'm Melissa Lee coming to you live from CUB at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour Von Wing Rosso and Julie Beal. We start off with a slew of jaw dropping stats in today's March market sell off. The NASDAQ sinking 6%, its worst day since the start of the pandemic after President Trump announced his sweeping tariff plans. The index now trading at its lowest since early August. The S and p down nearly 5%, its worst loss since June 2020. The Dow shedding almost 1700 points, its fifth biggest point drop on record. And the small cap Russell 2000 index sinking 6.5%, now more than 22% off its record high, making it the first major index to enter a bear market. And take a look at some of the sectors getting particularly hit. Consumer stocks for instance. RH sinking 40% after its earnings last night, its worst day on record. Kohl's down over 22%. Gap, Nike, Lululemon, all following suit. More on the retail trade shortly. Energy, the biggest sector loser today. The XLE ETF seeing its worst day in nearly three years. It was led lower by double digit losses in APA Valero, Philips 66 and Marathon Petroleum. Big Tech of course, tumbling to Apple down 9% its worst day since March 2020. Amazon its worst since April 2022. The Magnificent Seven, losing a combined trillion dollars in market cap just today. And financials among the biggest drags of The Dow, the 9% decline in Goldman Sachs erasing 230 points from the index. Meantime, yields plunging to multi month lows. The 10 year dropping 14 basis points, briefly touching an even 4%. And volatility spiking to the Vix jumping almost 40%, flirting with the 30 level. So what's next? Have we rerated enough for the new tariff regime? Tim, how are you feeling today?

[Tim Seymour]

Not great, Mel, but I think we're going to talk about the vix, we're going to talk about market dynamics later on in the show and we're going to talk probably throughout the show about important levels on the S and P. But it's pretty clear that the close that we had was so destructive that there's, there's not a lot of room, with exception down to some really important levels that get into Fibonacci retracements that get into, you know, 5150, 130 areas that, that I think on a day after the size of the move today doesn't suddenly feel that far away. There's, we've done a lot of damage in a short amount of time. So the velocity of the move is part of what's going on here. It's, we say this all the time. You know, the lack of uncertainty is part of what's going on. And I, I think part of what market participants and folks on Main street are feeling today is, hey, I'm not sure I knew that our economy, our, our economy was structurally broken because in fact the things that at least are intended and announced out of Washington are things that make it seem as if we have to suddenly transform industries that we didn't know needed to be transformed. That's part of where I think the outlook on stocks very cloudy. You Add in some other elements about the dollar giving a lot of ground, the move in rates and the breakdown in oil in terms of risk assets. If we start to see the dollar break down significantly and we start to see oil break down significantly, unfortunately, that is correlated to more market dynamics. So we haven't gotten earnings season, as you mentioned, a massive, massive, massive, I'll say it three times, payroll number tomorrow. Even though that is not really new data, that's opposed, you know, tariff shock environment. And we had ISM services today, which wasn't very good, and cast a little bit of a pall on that data. So the good news for markets is we've, we've plumbed a lot of ground here. I mean, there really is. And if you've made your list and you have companies, you have to ask yourself if something really fundamentally changed.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah. Julie Beal, what do you think have we rerated to this new tariff world? I mean, I don't even know how, how you think about the tariff since we, the only certainty we know is the new, the new tariff levels per country. But we don't know what will come in terms of companies actually basically caving or saying that we're going to give you something that you really want, something phenomenal, as President Trump just said, in order for these tariffs to be lifted or at least clawed back a little.

[Julie Beal]

Yeah, I think that's the biggest problem. What I really worry about more than anything is just the level of paralysis that most companies are facing in terms of CapEx investments, which we're already seeing in survey data before the tariffs were announced. And in terms of hiring and that paralysis, that stillness, it really creates a lot of sluggishness in the economy. And it makes sense to me, right, because even if Trump came back today and said, jk, jk, no tariffs, was just having fun with y'all, it's. I don't think anyone would be allocating any differently or still feeling much better. It's like if you had a landlord that said, I'm so sorry, but you're going to have to move out in the next three months, and then came back to you a week later and said, just kidding, you'd still be looking around for another place to live. Right. There's no clarity and certainty that these are really locked in and going to be here for the long term. So I think that's the real problem that we have. Even with the clarity that we have of the tariffs in a little chart, we don't actually have a lot of confidence that we know what the timelines look like and that makes it impossible to plan.

[Steve Grasso]

Yeah, I think Julie makes a lot of good points and then kind of like leaning into that. I think procedurally it's very much a shock. This is essentially enacted on the back of an executive order as opposed to going through a much more protracted congressional process where, where, you know, you have a bit, bit more time to kind of plan around this. And then the expectation is that if it does go through said process that it is going to be in place for, for a lot longer. I don't know what we can do in the interim that really starts to undo the damage that has been done, aside from saying, actually we are in fact only using this for posturing and these are not going to stick. And they've been vehement about the fact that that is really not the case. So there's no way for you to pick up a plant and onshore within a 30 to 60 day period. This is all very long, long planned out, capital intensive type of investment that we're talking about. And so I don't see how you're able to pivot away from the pain in the interim. And I think that's what the market is now digesting. I do think there was a prevailing sentiment that perhaps that these were simply bargaining chips and then there was a little bit more teeth. But the vat, the extent to which this rollout has encompassed, I think that is really what the market is digesting right now.

[Melissa Lee]

To your point in terms of the lag period, I mean, Dan Ives over at wedbush is pointing out specifically for Apple that even if tomorrow they wanted to bring factories back to the United states and charge $3,500 to $404,000 for an iPhone, it would cost $30 billion and take three years minimum to move those factories. So in the meantime, let's say, let's say yes, they're going to do that. Amazing. In the meantime, we're still living in a world where there's a big tariff from goods from China.

[David Zervos]

So the first question we have to ask is there's a $1.2 trillion trade deficit. Do we do nothing about. Because these are. There's no wrong answers. Right? So, so do we do nothing about that and just keep paying? So that's the, that's the first question.

[Melissa Lee]

Go ahead.

[David Zervos]

I asked it.

[Tim Seymour]

Right. I mean, I'm not sure if there are wrong answers. I mean, I think there could be wrong answers. But is the presumption that a deficit is bad? I guess is the Question. Because I don't.

[David Zervos]

Well, you want free trade and you want fair trade. So I don't think he's saying we don't need products from other countries here. What he's saying is we want an equal playing field. So if we have a car, how much does it cost to sell it in Europe? 30 to 50% more than we sell it here. If they have a car, how much does it cost more here? 2 and a half percent. Is that fair?

[Melissa Lee]

I don't think so. I get it. But what's the goal here? Is it to actually level the playing field of deficits? Because we are. A deficit symbolizes a very strong economy, prosperity that our consumption citizens can buy a lot of stuff from other people.

[David Zervos]

Because we exported inflation. And now everyone thinks we're importing inflation. But what I think he's doing is he slaps those taxes on the other countries, making it cost effective to actually manufacture here. Now that's another question. You might not want to manufacture in the usa. There's a lot of people who do.

[Tim Seymour]

Well, I mean, look, I'm all for fair playing field. I'm also fair for. Let's, let's use our leverage, let's push our way around. I'm all for that. I'm not sure I want to re industrialize our economy. I'm not sure also that a trade deficit with Vietnam is something that keeps me up at night. And in fact, there are certain places where I wouldn't mind textiles, but I understand the China backdoor, but it's not exactly. I mean, ultimately you have a case.

[David Zervos]

What is it? Well, 40% coming in from Cambodia could be from China.

[Tim Seymour]

A trade deficit to me is a sign of prosperity and buying power. And again, it's very clear to me, get the dollar weaker, get oil weaker, get rates lower. These are objectives of this administration. You got it. But a trade deficit and structurally remaking the economy is not. They're not the same thing. And the linear relationship between where tariffs came from and trade deficits is something that I think a lot of people are figuring out right now. Doesn't necessarily make. It doesn't make sense.

[Melissa Lee]

There's also the element of services which we export to other countries, which is not necessarily reflected in these goods numbers, Steve. So as a country, you know, we are very strong in that area in terms of services.

[David Zervos]

I agree, I agree with you on a lot of elements. But we all, we do buy 35% of the world's goods. So when Tim said, if we're using this as a leverage point, I think we have a lot more leverage over Europe and over China and over Africa and over all the other countries than they have over us.

[Melissa Lee]

I don't want to have a discussion in terms of is this good or is this bad? What does this do to the markets? What do we have to do in terms of thinking about the s and P500 digestion period this year? Digestion? Bank of America is saying it's going to be A to 35% and that is a drive the truck through that percentage range kind of hit.

[David Zervos]

So, so I think you have to have a conversation prior to the conversation on the market. Is this good? Because if it's just fantasy world and it's going to come off, then we.

[Melissa Lee]

Could say, okay, take one, doesn't preclude the other necessarily. It can be good in 10 years, but very bad right now. I think it could be good in five years.

[David Zervos]

I think, I think we're going to see what happens in the next earnings cycle, which is probably too soon. But I think you give it six to eight months and I don't think six to eight months of the market selling off to this, to this magnitude and then you see where we're at. And I think this is a moving target. This is a fluid story. I don't think, I don't think. And I think he does have the flexibility to say, well let's move up or let's move down or let's see how we negotiate. I don't think it's tomorrow.

[Melissa Lee]

I mean he just said, look, China, if you, if you approve a tick tock deal, then we can talk about tariffs like bang.

[David Zervos]

So okay, so 24 hours.

[Melissa Lee]

But Julie, to your point about paralysis, we are in a land here where we're just waiting for that next headline day to day. And so what does the market do? What do you as an investor do in that sort of, let's say it's eight to ten, eight to ten months. That seems like a pretty good scenario. Live eight to ten months in uncertainty. But what does that do to the markets?

[Julie Beal]

Well, I think we start to really see where the types of businesses that are dependent on trade are and are dependent on a specific type of policy to work. Those are just not the types of companies you need to be owning. You're probably better served in the, the types of businesses that we excel in, like information businesses or software businesses. I think that's probably a better place to be. Or if you're looking at industrials, you want to look at things that are kind of highly Specialized and are a little bit more insulated and there's some in small cap that might be a good place for that. But I think kind of in the interim and larger, bigger picture, what we really have to think about in terms of this policy is, you know, yes, economists told us that globalization would be great for everyone and there would be no deadweight costs. And that's kind of true. But the problem is is that that assumes that you're be able to reskill people. And I think that's the piece that we really missed in this country and that's why you have this large population that feels very left behind. So I think that there is some support for his policies in terms of we're going to make the other guys pay. The problem is is that in all cases or in most cases it's actually us who are going to pay these.

[Melissa Lee]

Well, when our last guest, our next guest joined Fast Money last time on March 4, he called the president's tariff policy quote, minutia in the grand scheme of things. Let's bring in Jefferies chief market strategist David Zervos. He's also CNBC contributor. David, great to have you with us. You also said the markets are massively overplaying the risks of tariffs. Here we are now. So what do we do with the sell off? How do you view this?

[Richard Fisher]

So I think the tariff story for me, I was looking at the 2018 playbook, watched how it went. I think the the new information really is that we have a much more MAGA Republican Party that's willing to go further on trade. That said, I actually think there's a silver lining under all this that's positive. So I don't get really bothered by the story. I actually look at it and think we're going to bring our trading partners to the table. They have a lot more to lose than we have to lose, similar to what you were saying earlier in the segment and that we have a real chance of getting a more cooperative, fairer trading outcome which I think has huge benefits to the U.S. i think as well that we're still early days in the deregulatory policies and the tax cut policies or the fiscal policies and the benefits from having just a significant reduction in the government footprint in the U.S. economy. So this is not to me the be all, end all. This never was. And I'll tell you something that's very interesting. I went back and looked at the price action in the beginning of 2018 when the first kind of tariff stuff started to come out in Trump 1.0. We had like three or four days with 3% moves in the S&P. We had a 10% correction in February. We had a 7% correction in March. The market got really spooked by a much smaller trade story than the one that got put with us today. So to be honest with you, I actually see how big this was and how much it was a surprise. The market didn't react nearly as much as you might have thought.

[Melissa Lee]

Just take a pause here. We got some breaking news from President Trump. He spoke to reporters a short time ago on Air Force One. New developments on the tariffs he announced just yesterday. Potentially more levies to come. Megan Casella's got the latest. Megan.

[Megan Casella]

Hey, Melissa. A lot of news coming out of this gaggle that was just on the plane. We're just getting the headlines from the wires and the pool reporters and starting to see the video play out now on negotiations with other countries about these tariffs. This is the top line here. The president said that he is open to tariff negotiations if other countries offer something phenomenal. He also said, quote, every country is calling us. We put ourselves in the driver's seat. Now other countries will do anything for us. A big development that I flagged there, Melissa, because all day today and even late yesterday we were talking about this. We were hearing from administration officials and allies of the president saying they weren't looking to make deals, they were not looking to make negotiations. Now, the president kind of changing that and saying as long as there's something good on the table, he's not specifying what that is, that he would be open to potentially lowering these tariffs at some point in the future. He also said that further tariffs will be coming. They hinted at this yesterday, but he says that tariffs on semiconductors will be starting very soon and that they're also looking at pharmaceuticals. He says that's under review right now. Remember, both of those products currently exempt from the reciprocal tariffs because they said at some point sector specific tariffs would be coming. He's saying now that's coming very soon. He also said the market reaction today is what is expected. He said it is going to be a booming economy, but he called this a transition period. He also said that he spoke today with some auto executives at the White House as the auto tariffs kicked in today. One industry that's definitely going through that transition period, he wouldn't say who he had talked to or what exactly they talked about, but you can imagine the idea of tariff relief and exemptions came up in that conversation. And then just finally MELISSA he spoke about TikTok in the context of this tariff relief. He said that he would consider a deal where China approves a TikTok sale in exchange for some tariff relief and also said with that deadline looming on Saturday for a sale, he said the US Is very close to a deal with multiple investors involved. So we'll keep listening to this as it goes, but a lot of headlines right there from the president.

[Melissa Lee]

MELISSA Megan, thank you. MEGAN casella, so there is this possibility that everything he announced yesterday could be in some way clawed back or paused or whatnot if things are negotiated here. The transition period that he just mentioned, it's similar to what Scott Bessen said in terms of a detox period. DAVID how do we trade through a period like that where if you are a fundamental investor, you have to apply these tariffs into models and say it's going to hit hit S and P earnings by this much and therefore the valuations need to come down, presumably by this much.

[Richard Fisher]

Yeah, but at the end of the day, aren't you also looking at a discounted cash flow that goes out forever? You're an equity investor. You're in the longest term capital there is. You're not a two year no trader or a five year no trader. So what you're thinking this does over the 5, 10, 20 year horizon what it does to rates as well, bringing rates down, which means that 5 to 10 year horizon is even more valuable because we get a lower rate structure. I think matters a lot. You're detoxifying. I love the story. It's probably less in the trade side than it is in the reg side or the overall government sector side. And that is, that is kind of getting the fiscal monkey off our back. Get this thing that's been dragging us down this big crowding out of the federal government from the private sector, pull those resources back into more productive uses in capital and labor and you know you're going to go through a little transition if you do it fast. People got nervous with the chainsaw. That was the thing. We didn't, we didn't really know how to how quick are we going to do it? And is it a trillion dollars fast? Is it more than a trillion dollars? But we'll get there. And the end, at the end of the day, a clean patient that's not on the kind of fiscal juiced up sugar high that they've been on is, is a better economy, a better patient and a better story.

[Tim Seymour]

So 100% in terms of the fiscal mess that went on for a long Time, really, on both sides of the aisle. But let's, let's reel it in and let's, let's exert our, our clout, our leverage globally. This is what we're all saying. But I saw even some of your notes. You said, you know, maybe a behavioral change is not a bad thing and it leads to a better economic outcome. How are you defining that? Because you're an economist and you understand what's going on here. In other words, at least you've worn these hats. And ultimately, was there something structurally broken about our economy that needed this type of structural change, or so it seems we're positioning for. Because everything on fiscal restraint and deregulation, 100% animal spirits. Everybody wants that, I think. I mean, I want that, but I'm just trying to understand the parts that I think the market doesn't understand is, hey, were we signing up for this? Were we signing up for. Is our. Is the US Economy structurally need to undergo a massive change here?

[Richard Fisher]

I think what we need to understand on the trade side, and that's what we're talking about today, is is there a need for 50% tariffs on every agricultural product going into India or 300% tariffs on everything going into Canada that's dairy, or 700% tariffs on rice that we might sell to Japan? Does that make sense? Is that fair? Is that the right structure of trade with our trading partners? No. And I think there's a desire to fix that just from a kind of meritocratic, kind of good relationship story. Let's have a level playing field. And if you make a better product than we do on a level playing field, great, then we'll take it. If not, let's not take it. But let's not subsidize the workforces of other countries through vat. Let's not put unfair trading practices into play. And that does need to be fixed. That's hollowed out a big chunk of our country and has probably been a big part of why the voter bases of those swing states moved toward the Republican Party, away from the Democratic Party, at least starting in 2016 and again again in 2024. I think that's an important story, and I think that's where he's pushing. But the even bigger story is kind of what Secretary Bessen has been alluding to much more of this detoxification of the $6.8 trillion of spending, which may even. And we might find out there's an Enron moment here, that a trillion or two of it is just complete fraud. And we don't know that yet. We don't know whether these Social Security numbers that they found of people north of 120, 130 years old, how many are there? Are we paying them? There's a lot more to find. But that I think is actually a little more nerve wracking for the market and suggests there may be some real spending that gets pulled out. But again, you're talking about a period where you take the bad toxicity out and the patient gets a little shaky, the patient gets a little unhappy because you're taking their sugar high away. But we have to remember what it is. It's a sugar high. It's not real growth. Which is so funny because we're over there in Europe, which I was in last week, listening to German clients tell me how excited they were about deficit spending. I thought I was on a planet, frankly, but I'm like, this is, you guys have been telling us this is a sugar high forever, and then we're just going to have to pay in the long run for all this excess debt that we take to do spending that's relatively unproductive. I think it's a, it's a great exercise. If we can do it, it'll probably lead to a lot lower interest rates. I think this Fed will be cooperative with that. I think Jay Powell love to see fiscal restraint. And I don't know, I just, I'm not, I'm not buying the really end of the world narrative that people are throwing out there today on a day that it feels pretty end of the world.

[Tim Seymour]

That felt good. Boy.

[Melissa Lee]

Okay, good. David, thank you for coming by. Always a pleasure to be David Zervos. So, Grasso, you feeling that good too?

[Tim Seymour]

Yeah.

[David Zervos]

Well, let's see how long it lasts.

[Richard Fisher]

And.

[David Zervos]

But I do believe when David was Talking about the 200 to 300% on milk, egg and cheese in Canada, that was prior to Trump, that was prior to this whole tariff tantrum that was not fair. So when Canadians talk about that, it's good to have the power and it's good to be a rich country, but if you go out to dinner and you're paying three and four times the price for dinner and the restaurant owner is not buying you a drink or sending you over dessert, you probably go to another restaurant. We got to even those out. When you go in a house, you get a roof, you get three estimates. We've been paying hand over fist for everything we're doing. We just want to lower it out, make it fair. And maybe in the meantime we get some more.

[Melissa Lee]

Did you buy this dip?

[David Zervos]

I bought an EV car maker. I bought lucid.

[Melissa Lee]

Okay. All right. Just just curious. Coming up, much more on today's global sell off, what tariffs mean for the Fed's rate path, how international markets are handling the news and a deep dive into volatility as we gear for tomorrow's jobs report. But first, one, today's retail stock rout. Major drops and big names across the board. But could this be a chance to get in? We'll debate that next. I'm going to our Fast Money is back into amid tariff uncertainty and downgrades.

[Tim Seymour]

To growth, will the labor market remain steady? What the March jobs report could indicate for the economy and possible future rate cuts. Numbers and analysis squawk box tomorrow, 8:30am Eastern, CNBC.

[Melissa Lee]

Welcome back to Fast Money. Consumer facing stocks under major pressure today. The S and P Retail ETF dropping 8% for its worst day in nearly three years of as retailers grapple with the impact of tariffs on global supply chains. For more on the sector impact, Courtney Reagan is here on set. Busy day for you.

[Courtney Reagan]

A really busy day. Extreme. I mean, frankly, the new tariff policy is being described as, quote, a nightmare come true. Worst case scenario beyond imagination. These aren't my words. These are coming from analysts, executives and retail lobby groups. So the losses were deep and they were wide. Rh at 40% of its value. Now this also was after a disappointing quarter and worry about its sales but also exposure to manufacturing in the now heavily tariffed countries in Asia. Its CEO cursing on the conference call in a real time reaction to watching his stock crater. Wayfair, Victoria's Secret, VF Corp. Capri Kohl's and so many others losing 20%. Again, we're just talking about today's session. Some consumer staples names, those were higher. But look at the divergence. I think this is so interesting in just the dollar stores often looked at as a safe haven. Dollar Tree though, down more than 13%. Dollar General up almost 5%. Why China sourcing exposure. Almost a third of Dollar Tree's goods are made in China, only 4% for Dollar General. So investors may be doing their homework on that one. However, Jeffrey's Randy Koenig tells me retailers actually are more worried about consumers pulling back right now more so than they are about the higher cost of goods. Retailers for the most part staying pretty silent. They don't want to talk. Their stocks are tumbling. They're trying to figure out what to do. American Apparel and Footwear Association CEO Steve Lamar is kind of doing the talking for some of the members. And he says that his members are feeling stress, frustration, anger, and even helplessness. Now, Cytex makes jeans in Vietnam and L A for names like Ralph Lauren, J. Crew, Madewell and others. Its CEO and co founder Sanjeev Ball tells me that at least for now, none of his retail clients are asking him to absorb all of that tariff cost. He says the same pair of jeans, though, does cost him, cost him half as much to make in Vietnam purely because of labor costs than it does in L. A. He says he's got an 80%, 20% hybrid model, and that's as good as he can do.

[Melissa Lee]

The dollar tree, Dollar General, divergence, fastness. So where are they getting there?

[Courtney Reagan]

So if you think about Dollar General does have more food and beverage, so a lot of that is going to be local. That is a lot of the reason for that dollar tree, remember, for a long time was sticking to that $1 price point. They had to go up to 125. Dollar General rather does have goods that sort of go beyond that $1 threshold and more food and beverage. That's a big reason for the divergence. So different types of goods, but both of them are often lumped together and say, hey, those are safe haven, Those are discounters. But if you're talking about exposure, it's vastly different.

[Tim Seymour]

How much of this do you think? So we know tariff impact, higher cost of goods sold, higher import costs, you know, whatever that is. But you talked about the consumer. And so we've got, first of all, a consumer that might have already spent too much on a lot of these discretionary items and have more than they needed. Sure. And then there's the unknown of the consumer. So there's almost a triple whammy here. What, what, what? You know, if you could, if you could break down, what's the contribution of each of these three buckets to what's going on here? Because. Because I, you know, I look at a Lululemon, and, you know, we're now a week past, or three or four days past their numbers. I mean, and people we'd see on the status get 20 times. Lulu is really cheap. Except for the fact that what I heard from this company is they could have negative comps and that actually their CAGR on. On EPS is going to be 5% for the next four years. And I'm not sure it's worth 20 times.

[Courtney Reagan]

Yeah. And Jefferies, Randy Koenig also, who I spoke to again about sort of the consumer sentiment pace when he would look at Lululemon, he Actually is, is also really worried that it's potentially a biggest loser for those things. Plus also it's.

[Tim Seymour]

Yeah, he was out there early on that exposure call.

[Courtney Reagan]

Yeah. I mean this is, this is really tricky and I really started to be to think about if prices go up so substantially, isn't it going to be this consumer pullback that is going to be a bigger problem? That seems to be an issue for me because if you're the retailers now, it's a little bit less about who's more exposed to China and who's not. There's nowhere to hide. Everybody's being hit. I mean very few retailers, retailers source all or the majority of their goods here in the United States. So that means everybody's costs are going up and so maybe everybody's cost of business is going up. So it's not me pitted against me if I'm a retailer, but if I'm a consumer, my gosh, to your point, do I really need another blue shirt? I mean that one looks fine. Tim.

[Tim Seymour]

Thanks. I know I don't.

[Melissa Lee]

It's pretty new. Courtney. Thank you.

[Courtney Reagan]

Yeah.

[Melissa Lee]

Courtney Reagan and the trend is that consumers were sort of pulling back. We saw that in the data most recently economy throughout the first quarter. As the first quarter went on and on and on, consumers are getting a little bit more choiceful in how they spend is I think the nice word of saying they're cutting back. So Bono and are you looking through this wreckage at all and saying you know what, there might be some interesting buys or you're just worried about this sort of overlay of the consumer losing their jobs of a growth, growth scare, growth, I don't know, pullback, whatever you want to call it.

[Steve Grasso]

I think you're always looking for an opportunity within the chaos. I mean you've got to kind of keep your mettle in the kind of pick through things. So one it just seems like correlation did really start to approach run within this XRT kind of cohort. And so when I look at you know, a Lulu or Restoration hardware versus like a Ralph Lauren or Gap, I do think there's some differentiate differentiation there. I think Lulu has already gotten hit on the back of earnings restoration as well. And then you're kind of seeing some taking there ultimately they're, they're really appealing to a higher end consumer and then in the consumer in generally I'm thinking about, about what are the spending trends likely to be. It's likely to be more credit card heavy now maybe I don't want exposure to a capital one but perhaps a Visa that has a nice mix of your XP type of clientele and then your middle type of clientele might be an opportunity for more fee generation there.

[David Zervos]

Yeah, when you you want to look at the retailers that are coming from a sense of strength. So you go to Costco, you go to Wal Mart where they can negotiate prices better. But I will tell you, Capri down 24% catches my attention to start sifting through because there's got to be some buyer at capri trading with a 14 handle coming up.

[Melissa Lee]

A couple of names managed to book the sell off today. How French fries, fries and soda help boost the staples sector into the green that is next. Plus, Trump's tariff plans could put a major wrench in the Fed's rate plans, how yields will respond and what are next. Gas guest is hearing from business leaders abroad. You're watching FAST MONEY LIVE from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. Back right after this.

[Tim Seymour]

Amid tariff uncertainty and downgrades to growth, will the labor market remain steady? What the March jobs report could indicate for the economy and policy, possible future rate cuts. Numbers and analysis squawk box tomorrow, 8:30am Eastern, CNBC.

[Melissa Lee]

Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks tanking after President Trump unveiled his 10% baseline tariff on almost every country. The dow diving nearly 1700 points. The S&P falling nearly 5%. The Nasdaq down nearly 6%. All three indices seeing their worst day days since 2020. Dow Transport sinking more than 9% as airlines, rail stocks and delivery companies like FedEx and UPS all drop in today's sell off. Crypto also getting crushed. Bitcoin hovering around the $82,000 level. Other tokens like Ethereum, Solana Ripple all lower as well. But some bright spots in today's drop, investors flocking to the staples sector amid the global sell off. Lamb Weston, the French fry maker jumping 10% after topping earnings expectations in beverage stocks like Coke, Pepsi, Molson, Coors helping fuel the staples trade. We've got a news alert. One of Wall Street's biggest firms updating its odds for recession. Steve Liesman's got the details. Steve?

[Tim Seymour]

Yeah, Melissa. And not one that is really quick on the trigger to make changes like that. JP Morgan upping its recession odds to 60% from 40% previously, citing obviously the tariffs, the effect on business sentiment, the effect on investment and the effect on and on consumer price. They said, quote, these policies, if sustained, would likely push the US and possibly global economy into recession this year. And if I could shift gears, Melissa, we just got an email from or A study from the Cato Institute, what they did is they looked at the tariffs that the White House says countries charged us versus the actual tariffs they charged. Take a look. Vietnam, they said that President Trump said it's 90%. It's actually 5.1% for an 85% difference. We'll go down the list. Taiwan, Switzerland, which is known to not charge almost any tariffs at all, 61%. The White House said it's actually 1.7. Indonesia, where we get a lot of garments from, they're at 5.3. The White House says they're at 64. And very importantly, the European Union, remember when the president said there was 39 and then we can go down the list. These are important trading partners. Now of course, there are some non tariff trade barriers that are difficult to quantify.

[Richard Fisher]

But the White House basically being accused.

[Tim Seymour]

By people of using a formula that no one has ever used to come up with these tariff rates and then say, oh, we were kind to them and we did half. Melissa?

[Melissa Lee]

Steve, thank you. Steve Liesman, the 10 year treasury yield dropping again today hitting 4% at its lows of the session. That was its lowest level since October. Next guest warns President Trump's tariffs are upsetting the global order. Richard Fisher is the former Dallas Fed president. CNBC contributors also served as deputy trade representative around the time NAFTA was implemented. Richard, great to have you with us. You just returned from a very long trip around Europe. You talked to a bunch of CEOs, investors and what are they saying here as JP Morgan ups his recession odds to 60% for this year?

[Mandy Hsu]

Well, my trip ended at the beginning of this week. So they were apoplectic. They were worried. They wanted some certainty and I guess they have a little more certainty now after President Trump's announcement on tariffs. So look, this is just upsetting the current global order. And to make decisions, including at the Federal Reserve, I believe without having a full sense of what the impact will be, it's too early. It's just too early to make decisions. I don't like this because I was schooled and I believed and the way I negotiated my duties for USGR with all the countries that have been talked about on the show, it's just a different approach. And Steve is right when he reports those numbers, those things. For example, the Vietnam number was one that I negotiated when we put on the first Nike investments on behalf of the United States. I helped negotiate their opening in Vietnam. So remember, Melissa, consumers are going to pay the price. And one of the meetings I had was With Rolls Royce. My first meeting in London and then last weekend in the ft, the successful CEO of Rolls Royce pointed out that if you're going to make for dramatic change at any organization, in his case his company, you have to deliver results very quickly to keep your constituents going on your side. We'll see how this affects the farmers, how it affects the consumers, and how it affects the constituents that voted for President Trump. But my guess is no one is happy having to pay higher prices than they already are paying at a time when the economy is on a downturn. So it's compounding the issues and also challenging all these other countries in terms of their economic welfare.

[Melissa Lee]

From the Fed perspective, I understand that you have to see what the impacts are going to be the direct as well as the indirect impacts of these tariffs and how it filters through the economy, etc. Etc. There are other economists on the street who, you know, they have to cater to investors and they need to put notes out and they need to figure out how exactly it's going to impact everything right now. But at the same time, at the same time, Richard, you know, at what point does the Fed, or maybe there is no point where the Fed is less passive in its role in the economy in terms of watching to see how things impact the economy and take on a more active role in terms of where the economy should go.

[Mandy Hsu]

Well, first have to figure out what's likely to be the impact on inflation and employment. And Melissa, you've heard me say, as we've been friends for a long time, I don't believe in instant analysis as an oxymoron. It takes time to figure out what the consequences will be in a very complex economy like the United States. I do think everybody realizes that tariffs are indeed a tax. It will put price pressure on consumers as businesses struggle to protect their margins with increasing costs. And this is an increase in cost. But I think right now, if you look at what's happened that affects business rates have come down a little bit the 10 years hovering just at 4%. So I believe the Federal Reserve only controls the yield curve out to one year year and from then on on the yield curve, what impacts operating businesses who employ people, who sell products, who buy things from others to make end of products and to provide services. The short term rates aren't as important. You're right as far as the trading markets are concerned. But let's not overestimate how powerful the Fed can be in terms of affecting the price of money that they depend on. Businesses depend on to finance their operations. And right now, I would say rates come down, the spreads have not widened that dramatically. We're just going to have to see how this works its way through the system. And as we see how it works its way through the system, the Federal Reserve, like any business right now, just has to take their time to understand all the movements that are likely to occur from this dramatic, dramatic change in the way we approach the world and we approach our own economy. Not an easy task.

[Melissa Lee]

Melissa no, it's not. Richard, thank you for the instant analysis of the situation.

[Mandy Hsu]

I want to tell our good friend on the set, by the way, I am wearing a blue shirt like he is.

[Tim Seymour]

So looking good, Richard.

[Melissa Lee]

It looks new. RICHARD thank you. Nice to see you. Richard fisher, so like every other component in the economy in terms of the consumer businesses, a state of paralysis even at the Fed in terms of what they do, according to Richard, because we have to see how things filter through.

[Tim Seymour]

And there are two sides to what the Fed sees here. And there is a part of this that they're probably pretty excited about in terms of fiscal restraints. So it's, it's tomorrow's payroll number is an important payroll number for the markets, but it's not necessarily going to dictate the world that we see. And I believe that that patience will, will be borne out over the next few weeks.

[Melissa Lee]

If there are cracks, though, in that report tomorrow, Julie, cracks that existed before the tariffs have come into effect that will really concern investors. I would think it should.

[Julie Beal]

I mean, right. If you're, if two thirds of your economy is based on the health of the consumer and everyone spends every incremental dollar, or they have been for the last few years, it's really concerning if they start to lose their jobs. And more importantly, it's not just the, the losing of the jobs that really impacts demand, it's the fear of losing your job. That's when you start to really pull back your spend even though you are still gainfully employed. And I think it's that confidence piece that's not just lacking in businesses, but if it starts to bleed into consumers as well, that is a meaningful impact on demand and that happens immediately.

[Melissa Lee]

Coming up, a spike in volatility as Trump tariffs tank equities across the globe. How our next guest is navigating, meaning the stock swings and where she sees safety amid the turmoil. That is next. Welcome back to FAST money. Today's massive stock market sell off comes as investors now turn to the March jobs report tomorrow. So how should investors position themselves now? Let's ask CBOE, CBO's Mandy Hsu, she joins us here on set. Manny, great to have you with us. In terms of today, we saw a big volatility spike. We close it around 30 or so. But you know, on the 12:30 call, these guys were saying that they expected it to be much higher.

[J]

Exactly. So as big of an increase in the VIX as we saw today, we would have expected a much bigger increase given the fact that S and P sold off almost 5%. Right. If you recall last August when we had that almost 5% pre market sell off, Vix was 65. So in terms of what's different this time, I think the fact that tariffs, while what was announced yesterday was larger than expected, it was very much an anticipated risk for the market. It wasn't a true shock. Right. It wasn't a black swan event. And typically what really produces the kind of type of volatility shocks we saw last summer was a true black swan event. And that's not what we saw yesterday or today.

[Melissa Lee]

In terms of volatility in the other asset classes, like yields for instance, was that more in line with what you're expecting or still muted?

[J]

No, we did, we did see volatility increase across asset classes. In terms of what stands out on a cross asset basis, I would say right now credit volatility to us seems fairly contained given this rising concern of a recession. Credit spreads being still fairly tight on a historical basis in the rates market. In the bond market, what's interesting is that for all the talk about stagflation, the possibility of much higher inflation, the bond market is solely focused on the downside risk to growth. There's almost nothing being priced in for the inflation. So all the positioning is for rates to go, go lower from here. Very different from what we saw in 2022 when it was the other way around.

[Melissa Lee]

Right.

[Steve Grasso]

Man, we spent a lot of time talking about the VIX at the index level. Can you kind of tell us what you're seeing under the hood at the individual single stock level and whether that's telling us a different picture or a different story about investor sentiment around fear?

[J]

Yes, and I say one of the reasons why, you know, the VIX was probably more contained today was that investor focus was actually really idiosyncratic. The stock stocks selection side, people were looking for the winners and losers of tariff policy. So what we saw actually was a fair amount of dispersion.

[Richard Fisher]

Right.

[J]

We had certain sectors, staples, utilities, actually up on the day and even within sectors, I think you guys were talking about in the retail dollar general versus, you know, dollar tree. Exactly. There was quite a bit of dispersion there. So that to me suggests that people are still looking at from an earnings from a fundamental perspective and not from a macro perspective. So, so if there were more fears around recession, more macro fears, you would start to see higher levels of correlation and that would kind of then you would expect to see higher levels of vix. So I would say right now, equity investors still focused in terms of stock selection, sector selection, picking out the winners and losers. Could that change? Certainly. And if it did, we would expect to see higher levels of volatility.

[David Zervos]

So many if the VIX is only good for Black Swan event or things of that nature. I don't want to put words in your mouth, but that's how you framed it. Where you see these spikes in volatility, what should the people watching the show, what should us as traders when bona want to ask you about individual names? Is there a certain aspect or a certain metric that we can look at as traders that will give us a day to day volatility picture versus the Black Swan events?

[J]

Yes, absolutely. So to be clear, so vix, when I say good for Black Swan, I mean significant vix spikes like to 60, 50, 60 type of levels typically you would get, you know, it's on the back of a Black Swan event. But in terms of what other volatility measures you can look at, we actually released a VIX for single stocks. The ticker is Vix EQ. It's looking at the top 8090 stocks in the S and P. That gives you a good measure of kind of average single stock volatility in the market. So if you want to look at the stock side, we also have measures across asset classes. VIX tlt, which looks at bond market volatility, VIX ig, which is credit volatility. So we do have a variety of measures for across asset classes as well as within the equity market.

[Melissa Lee]

Bottom line though, I hear that there's more possibility for downside risk to equities and to a lot of different asset classes because we haven't priced in recession, we haven't gone that last mile. Right now we're only pricing still a growth scare. I mean we're still willing to look at fundamentals for stock.

[J]

That is my big takeaway in terms of what is currently being priced into the equity options market.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah. Do you think we need to price in recession at some point?

[Tim Seymour]

Well, I think the comment on credit is really important. I think, you know, if I, if I look at what credit markets have done and I also look at the crowd that's in credit markets and I look at the lack of liquidity. You know, there's not the kind of liquidity to actually unwind a lot of positions for a lot of people. If you own cds, yes, it's highly liquid, but the private credit markets are what they are. But if you, if you went up and you can do this at home, if you look up high yield OAS spreads, you can see that we've seen essentially in high yield spreads, we've backed up 100 basis points in about, you know, in about three months, four months, really, most of it from January. And that's a major, major move. And yet we're still incredibly tight. Mandy's talking about markets only saying lower, lower rates. Pretty good for companies, pretty good for owning bonds. Right. Lower rates, higher prices. But credit spreads widening is the part that really I'd be careful on.

[Melissa Lee]

What are you watching tomorrow post jobs report? Pre jobs report.

[J]

Yeah, I think the economic. So heading into this week, the market was putting more emphasis on the economic data than the tariff announcement. That turned out not to be an oversight, but I would say kind of going forward, I can see why the market did that because the economic outlook is going to be the key driver. Right. In terms of, just in terms of both the labor market as well as consumer spending. You know, those data points, I would expect to be much bigger volatility drivers or catalysts for the market.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, Mandy, thanks for stopping by. Appreciate it. Mandy Shoe of cbo, Julie Beal. How are you feeling about tomorrow's jobs report? And do you think we need to price in recession? Are you starting to do that math in terms of S and P earnings, etc.

[Julie Beal]

I think that what we are trying to do is look at our portfolio companies and have confidence that even if we do hit a recession that they're going to to be okay. That's how we build our portfolios. And that's why when we have days like today, we tend to do half as bad as the market. The thing that I think is really important for all investors to be looking at is what types of quality businesses do I have? Am I well positioned? Because if we do have a negative jobs report before the tariffs, that is problematic. Exactly. For as she was saying, the consumer spending aspect of it is so important.

[Melissa Lee]

All right. Meantime, global markets also hit hard after yesterday's tariff announcements. The Europe stock Stoxx 600 down over 2 1/2 percent. Germany an outperformer earlier this year getting whacked 3%. China's Hang Seng Index down 1 1/2%. Meantime, the Mexico ETF soaring as our southern neighbor was spared additional tariffs. The EWW saw its best day since June. Canada not seeing the same enthusiasm today, down more than 2%. So, Tim, you're known for your miga trade, which is of course making international great again. How are you feeling about it now?

[Tim Seymour]

Well, if we think that the dollar is going lower again, you've got this, you've got this buffer when you're investing in foreign markets here that actually, if you're investing in a company that sits in Europe, the Euro's strength is actually to your benefit. So that's part of what the move was. That's why if you own the ewg, it really outperformed the dax. The part about, I think this trade that investors need to think about is there are foreign investors and some U.S. but you know, really, if you're a foreign investor, you're investing dollars, so much of that position is unhedged. If some of that money comes repatriating back, I think it's going to be even more powerful for that international trade. So I continue to think that this is a trade that while it's had a big run, there are structural things that have changed dramatically that mean this is, I think, just the beginning.

[Melissa Lee]

Just quickly, within international. Are there specific areas you like the best now after we know all these tariff.

[Tim Seymour]

Well, it's again, it's fascinating how Mexico has kind of carved this out, but I continue to think that Germany, what they're doing in that economy and the industrial nature of that economy and the fast and the fiscal spending. Germany and Spain are kind of the, I think, the most interesting economies in Europe.

[Melissa Lee]

Up next, final trades. Time for the final trade. Let's go around the horn.

[Julie Beal]

Julie Enterpac. I'm thinking local and highly specialized.

[Melissa Lee]

Tim Unilever.

[Tim Seymour]

This is a Staples play, but it's an EU food play. Trades cheap to its group and I think is actually a bit of a rerating play on cost improvements. Lever or lever, you know, Lev lever, I don't know.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah, we know what you're talking about, Bono.

[Steve Grasso]

In continuing to focus on the consumer, I really think that you, you know, you want to look at the credit card providers, Visa, Steve Grasso, I said.

[David Zervos]

Before I bought Lucid Motors for the last two days, took a shot there. They're mostly manufactured in the States and they're backed by the Saudi private investment fund. So took a shot at Lucid all.

[Melissa Lee]

Right, thanks for watching Fast Money. See you back here tomorrow. Five for more Fast Mad Money with Jim Cramer starts right now.

[Richard Fisher]

All opinions expressed by the Fast Money.

[Melissa Lee]

Participants are solely their opinions and do.

[Richard Fisher]

Not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal.

[Melissa Lee]

Their parent company or affiliates, and may.

[Richard Fisher]

Have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow.

[Melissa Lee]

A particular strategy, but only as an.

[Richard Fisher]

Expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither.

[Melissa Lee]

CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries.

[Richard Fisher]

Warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com com fastmoneydisclaimer amid tariff.

[Tim Seymour]

Uncertainty and downgrades to growth, will the labor market remain steady? What the March jobs report could indicate for the economy and possible future rate cuts. Numbers and ANALYSIS Squawkbox tomorrow, 8:30aM Eastern CNBC.